6 Things to Know

1. Russia’s Vladimir Putin held phone calls with Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu and Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian in the afternoon of June 13, condemning Israel’s overnight attacks on military, nuclear and other targets in Iran, and offering his mediation services to the two arch-enemies. In sync with the Kremlin, Russia’s Foreign Ministry condemned Israel’s strikes as “unacceptable,” while Putin’s deputy in the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev invoked the threat of a nuclear war in his reaction to the attacks. Of the pro-Kremlin Russian commentators whose views on the attacks RM staff managed to find, most criticized Israel, while some worried about the possible disintegration of Iran, which supplies most of the attack drones used by Russia in its war against Ukraine.
2. In the period of May 13–June 10, 2025, Russia gained 223 square miles of Ukrainian territory (an area approximately equivalent to 2 Nantucket islands), according to the June 10, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. Last month, Russian forces ate into more Ukrainian territory than in almost any month since the end of 2022, as they have pressed on with the summer offensive in which they have entered the Dnipropetrovsk region for the first time in three years of war, according to the Wall Street Journal and New York Times.
3. On June 9, Ukraine said Russia launched almost 500 air strikes overnight, the largest total in more than three years of war. A total of 479 Iranian-made Shahed drones and 20 missiles were launched at Ukraine by Russian forces, the Ukrainian air force said, according to New York Post. The country's air defense said it destroyed 460 of the drones, as well as 19 of the missiles.
4. The United States plans to reduce its budget for procuring new weapons for Ukraine, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said during a House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hearing on June 10, Meduza reported. Sen. Mitch McConnell chided Hegseth for the planned reduction, arguing that “we don’t want a headline at the end of this conflict that says Russia wins and America loses,” the New York Times reported. During the hearing, Hegseth was asked by McConnell to identify the “aggressor” and “victim” in the conflict. Hegseth replied: “Russia is the aggressor,” but then declined to say that Ukraine was a “victim” in the war, according to the New York Times. Sen. Lindsey Graham challenged Hegseth and Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, on whether Putin was going to stop at Ukraine, if successful on the battlefield there. “I don’t believe he is,” Caine said, according to the New York Times. "Russia could be ready to use military force against NATO within 5 years,” NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte said on June 9.¹
5. Group of Seven nations won’t try to reach consensus on a joint communique at a leaders summit in Canada on June 15-17, people familiar with the matter said, an acknowledgment of the wide gulf that separates the U.S. from the other members on Ukraine, and other issues, according to Bloomberg.
6. A secretive intelligence unit of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) refers to the Chinese as “the enemy,” according to what The New York Times describes as an eight-page internal FSB planning document that it has obtained. The FSB officers “say that China is spying on the Russian military’s operations in Ukraine to learn about Western weapons and warfare. They fear that Chinese academics are laying the groundwork to make claims on Russian territory,” according to the New York Times. “Despite all of these vulnerabilities, the FSB report makes clear that jeopardizing the support of China would be worse, warning the secretive unit’s officers that they must receive approval from the highest echelons of the Russian security establishment before taking any sensitive action at all.”

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• The World Bank said on June 11 it would lift its longstanding ban on funding nuclear power projects. (New York Times, 06.13.25)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• North Korea appears to be building a new uranium-enrichment plant in its main nuclear complex, the United Nations' nuclear watchdog warned this week, the strongest sign yet that the country's leader, Kim Jong-un, plans to grow its nuclear weapons supply. (New York Times, 06.12.25)
• Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov reported on June 7 that Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu agreed during his recent visit to North Korea to work to bring more North Korean migrants to work in Russia. (ISW, 06.10.25)
• Russia and North Korea will resume one of the world’s longest passenger rail routes next week for the first time since Covid-19 border restrictions began four years ago, Russian Railways announced June 9. (MT/AFP, 06.10.25)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Russian reaction to Israel’s aerial attacks on Iran followed by Iran’s retaliatory strikes:² Find these and more reactions from Russian officials and commentators in this RM blog post.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin held phone calls with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Friday after Israel hit Iran in a series of strikes. "President of Russia emphasized," in his call with Netanyahu, "the importance of resuming the negotiations and resolving any issues pertaining to Iran's nuclear program exclusively via political and diplomatic means. In addition, the Russian leader expressed willingness to provide mediation so as to prevent further escalation," the Kremlin said in a statement posted on its website. Speaking to Pezeshkian, Putin "stressed that Russia condemned Israel's actions, which had been carried out in violation of the U.N. Charter and international law.” (MSN, 06.13.25)
• Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, wrote on Telegram: "I am often accused of whipping up nuclear hysteria. Take that! When I write about a nuclear conflict, it's not just like that. It's real. And fast. Nobody needs that!" (Telegram, 06.13.25)
  • Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesperson, said Russian President Vladimir Putin was receiving “real-time updates” on the situation June 13. “Russia is concerned and condemns the sharp escalation of tensions," Peskov said. (The Moscow Times, TASS, Interfax, 06.13.25)
  • Konstantin Kosachev, Federation Council deputy speaker, said: "There is no excuse for Israeli actions from either a legal, political, military, or moral point of view.” "The saddest thing is that this is not the end of the story. An Iranian response to Israel is inevitable, and the vicious circle of escalation is spiraling upwards." “This is also a strike on nuclear safety, considering that what happens to radiation levels where the attacked sites have been destroyed remains to be seen," he said. (Interfax, quoting Kosachev’s Telegram channel, 06.13.25)
  • Leonid Slutsky, State Duma Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman, said: “The Israeli strikes on Iran are fraught with a major escalation. The Iranian Armed Forces General Staff said that Israel has crossed every existent red line and Tehran has no limits on its response. The red flag of revenge has been raised over the Jamkaran Mosque," Slutsky told the press on June 13. "No doubt, all of that causes profound concern about possible consequences, including those on the global level," he said. (Interfax, 06.13.25)
  • Major Russian airlines, including Aeroflot and Red Wings, announced flight cancellations and rerouted services across the Middle East June 12 due to airspace closures and safety concerns. Russia’s civil aviation agency Rosaviatsia later banned the country’s airlines from entering airspace above Israel, Iraq, Iran and Jordan until June 26. (MT/AFP, 06.13.25, MT, 06.13.25)
  • Brent crude surged as much as 13%, reaching $78.50 per barrel at its peak. (MT, 06.13.25)
  • The Russian stock exchange rose slightly at the start of trading on June 13, with oil and gold companies seeing the biggest increases in share prices. Rosneft shares had risen by 3.54% around noon Moscow time, while shares of Lukoil were up by 2.05%. (MT/AFP, 06.13.25)
• Other Iran-related news:
  • The U.N. atomic watchdog’s board has for the first time in two decades declared that Iran is in breach of its non-proliferation obligations as the U.S. and European powers increase pressure on Tehran over its nuclear activities. In a resolution drafted by the U.S., the U.K., France and Germany, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s board of governors censured Iran, saying Tehran had failed to co-operate with the watchdog on “numerous” occasions and impeded its ability to “verify Iran’s declarations and the exclusively peaceful nature” of its program. (Financial Times, 06.12.25)
  • Russia proposed transferring Iran’s excess nuclear material to its territory as part of efforts to assist Iran and the U.S. in reaching an agreement over the Islamic Republic’s atomic program, Interfax reported. (Bloomberg, 06.11.25)
  • Share of Russians who think Iran is among Russia’s top five allies declined from 22% in 2024 to 11% on 2025. (Levada, 06.05.25)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• On June 10, Russia and Ukraine exchanged a new group of prisoners of war under a deal reached during last week’s peace talks in Istanbul, both sides said. During last week’s talks in Istanbul, both sides agreed to release all wounded troops and captured soldiers under the age of 25 — more than 1,000 on each side — and to exchange the bodies of 6,000 fallen soldiers each. On June 12, Russia and Ukraine carried out another prisoner exchange, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced. Russia’s Defense Ministry also confirmed that the exchange had taken place. (Meduza, 06.12.25, MT/AFP, 06.10.25)
• On June 13, Ukrainian authorities said that they received 1,200 unidentified bodies from Russia as part of an agreement reached during peace talks in Istanbul. Earlier this week, Russia said it handed over the remains of 1,212 Ukrainian soldiers in the first stage of the arrangement. (AFP, 06.13.25)
• A recently surfaced image of a Ukrainian POW with the words “Glory to Russia” carved into his stomach is real, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) said  June 10. (Meduza, 06.10.25)
• Hundreds of Russian soldiers wounded in the Ukraine war have been treated in Belarusian hospitals, including some from military units linked to alleged war crimes in Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 06.11.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the past month (May 13–June 10, 2025), Russia gained 223 square miles (area about the equivalent of 2 Nantucket Islands) of Ukrainian territory, according to the June 10, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (RM, 06.13.25)³
• Russian forces ate into more Ukrainian territory in May than in almost any month since the end of 2022, as the Kremlin presses a summer offensive to create the impression in the West that victory is within its grasp. For the past two years, battlefield momentum has been incremental and costly for both sides. But Russia has managed to accelerate its rate of advance in recent months, as it did last fall, before wet, cold conditions slowed Moscow’s progress. Key to Moscow’s latest offensive is the eastern Ukrainian city Kostyantynivka, a crucial logistical hub on the edge of the front line. After a recent advance south of the city, Russia now surrounds Kostyantynivka on three sides. (Wall Street Journal, 06.11.25)
• Pressing ahead with a new summer offensive, Russian forces have entered the Dnipropetrovsk region of eastern Ukraine for the first time in three years of war. Advancing west from the Donetsk region, small squads of Russian soldiers began crossing into neighboring Dnipropetrovsk last weekend. A battlefield map by the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, based on verified combat footage, now shows that Russian forces have secured a tiny foothold in the area. (New York Times, 06.13.25)
• Deputy Head of Ukrainian Presidential Office Pavlo Palisa told reporters June 5 that Russia likely seeks to seize the full extent of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by Sept. 1, 2025, and create a buffer zone along the northern Ukrainian-Russian border by the end of 2025. (ISW, 06.06.25)

Saturday, June 7, 2025

• On June 7, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Loknya. (RM, 06.13.25)
• On June 7, Russia pummeled Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, using a swarm of drones, bombs and missiles that killed at least three people, according to the local authorities.  The local authorities said that within 90 minutes, Russia struck the city with nearly 50 drones, two missiles and four glide bombs, powerful guided weapons that carry hundreds of pounds of explosives. (New York Times, 06.07.25)
• On June 7, Ukraine said its forces shot down a Russian Su-35 fighter jet over the Kursk region. (MT/AFP, 06.07.25)

Sunday, June 8, 2025

• On June 8, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Novooleksandrivka. (RM, 06.13.25)
• Kremlin officials and the Russian Ministry of Defense announced June 8 that Russian forces reached the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border and are conducting offensive operations into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (ISW, 06.08.25)
  • On June 8, Kyiv’s armed forces rejected as “disinformation” Russia’s claim that its ground troops have crossed into Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region. (Bloomberg, 06.08.25)
• Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a chemical plant in Tula Oblast on June 8. Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation Head Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko, who often reports on successful Ukrainian drone strikes against Russia, implied on June 8 that Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike against the Azot chemical plant in Novomoskovsk, Tula Oblast. (ISW, 06.08.25)
• Ukraine over the past three years has developed a wide range of drones and robotic weapons that have been deployed against Russian forces to deadly effect. The latest addition to this remote-controlled arsenal is the Magura V7, a homemade weapon system that launches antiaircraft missiles from a 24-foot remote-controlled speedboat. The system shot down two Russian Su-30 warplanes last month. (New York Times, 06.08.25)
• Ukrainian intelligence believes that Kostiantynivka and neighboring Pokrovsk [both in the Donetsk region] will be the center of Russia’s summer campaign. There are concerns about the northeastern province of Sumy, too. Russia has massed 50,000 troops there. (The Economist, 06.08.25.)

Monday, June 9, 2025

7. On June 9, Ukraine said Russia launched almost 500 air strikes overnight, the largest total in more than three years of war. A total of 479 Iranian-made Shahed drones and 20 missiles were launched at Ukraine by Russian forces, the Ukrainian air force said. The country's air defense systems destroyed 460 of the drones as well as 19 of the missiles launched in the Russian barrage, it said, claiming only 10 drones hit their target. (RFE/RL, New York Post, 06.09.25)

• On June 9, a 64-year-old man was killed and five others were injured in a Ukrainian missile strike on a recreational center in southwestern Russia’s Kursk region, authorities said June 9.  (MT/AFP, 06.09.25)
• On June 9, Ukraine said its drones hit the site of an electronics developer and manufacturer in Cheboksary, which temporarily halted operations to protect employees, Oleg Nikolayev, governor of Russia’s Chuvashia region that’s located 1,300 km (800 miles) from the border with Ukraine, said. (Bloomberg, 06.09.25)
• On June 9, Moscow's forces claimed to be advancing toward Ukraine's southeastern Dnipropetrovsk region. (Washington Post, 06.09.25)
• A Russian court has ordered the pre-trial detention of a person suspected of killing a former military officer who commanded air operations during the siege of Mariupol. Maj. Zaur Gurtsiyev, who was serving as deputy mayor of the southern city of Stavropol at the time of his death, was killed along with an acquaintance, Nikita Penkov, in a bomb blast on May 28. (MT/AFP, 06.09.25)

Tuesday, June 10, 2025

• On June 10, Russia launched a mass drone and missile attack on Kyiv for the third night in four days, following Moscow’s vow to avenge an audacious Ukrainian operation that destroyed Russian strategic bombers at air bases on the ground hundreds of kilometers from the front line. Ukraine’s air force said Russia had launched 315 kamikaze drones, two ballistic missiles and five cruise missiles towards Ukraine, with Kyiv as the main target. All the cruise and ballistic missiles and 220 of the drones were reportedly shot down. (Financial Times, 06.10.25)
  • Zelenskyy called Russia’s most recent attack on Kyiv “unacceptable and catastrophic” after a blast wave damaged the facade of the city’s Saint Sophia Cathedral, a UNESCO World Heritage Site. (Meduza, 06.10.25)
• A woman was killed and four other people were wounded in a Ukrainian drone strike on a gas station in the southwestern city of Belgorod, authorities said June 10. (MT/AFP, 06.10.25)

Wednesday, June 11, 2025

• On June 11, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Dvorichna. (RM, 06.13.25)
• On June 11, Ukraine’s Air Force reported that its air defense units had shot down 49 out of 85 drones launched by Russia during the overnight assault on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city. Russian forces also launched an Iskander-M ballistic missile from Russia’s Kursk region, according to the Ukrainian Air Force. (NYT, 06.11.25)
• Russian fiber-optic drones—which are connected by a thin electronic cable to their pilots to protect them from electric jammers—can now travel up to 25 miles, roughly twice as far as they could a year ago, putting roads connecting the city, and supply vehicles, within range. (Wall Street Journal, 06.11.25)

Thursday, June 12, 2025

• Overnight Russian drone strikes on the northeastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv wounded 14 people, including four children, Ukrainian officials said on June 12. (MT/AFP, 06.12.25)
• A Ukrainian drone strike on a village in the southwestern Belgorod region killed a child and injured two others. (MT/AFP, 06.12.25)
• Russia has likely suffered 1 million causalities since the start of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the U.K. Ministry of Defense said, a staggering human cost from the war with no end in sight. The toll from the conflict includes around 250,000 Russian soldiers who were killed or are missing. (Bloomberg, 06.12.25)
  • The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces have sustained over one million casualties since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, over half of which occurred since January 2024. (ISW, 06.12.25)
• “Since the start of the special military operation, the [Russian] air defense forces have taken out over 80,000 air targets, including 7,500 modern short-range and cruise missiles as well as rocket projectiles which were almost 100-percent Western-made,” Putin told a meeting on  key parameters of the draft State Armament Program for 2027–2036. (Kremlin.ru, 06.12.25)
• “Our drone operators account for a significant part of the enemy’s destroyed and damaged equipment and facilities, up to 50 percent. ... I should note that we are now creating unmanned systems forces as a separate branch of the military,” Putin told the meeting on  key parameters of the draft State Armament Program for 2027–2036. (Kremlin.ru, 06.12.25)

Friday, June 13, 2025

• On June 13, Russia’s military said its forces captured another village in Ukraine’s northeastern Sumy region, where Moscow has intensified its attacks in recent weeks. The Defense Ministry said troops had taken control of the village of Yablunivka, located about nine kilometers (five miles) from the Russian border. (MT/AFP, 06.13.25)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• The United States plans to reduce its budget for procuring new weapons for Ukraine, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said during a House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hearing on the proposed defense budget. Responding to a question about funding for Ukraine aid, Hegseth said there would be “a reduction in this budget.” (Meduza, 06.11.25)
  • “We don’t want a headline at the end of this conflict that says Russia wins and America loses,” Sen. Mitch McConnell told the Pentagon chief, chiding him for failing to include additional military assistance for Ukraine in the Pentagon’s proposed budget for the upcoming fiscal year. (New York Times, 06.11.25)
• Israel has not sent Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems to Ukraine, the Israeli Interior Ministry told the news site Ynet on June 10. (Meduza, 06.10.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

Friday, June 6, 2025

• U.S. President Donald Trump signaled on June 6 that he could be willing to increase sanctions against Russia. Russia's economic struggles, however, have been and will continue to be driven by Russian military losses on the battlefield. Maximum U.S. economic pressure against Russia is not possible without continued military sales to Ukraine.  Trump stated to reporters on June 6 that he would be willing to "use [the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025, a bill in the U.S. Senate] if it's necessary" and impose additional sanctions on Russia if Russia demonstrates that it will not "make a deal" or stop fighting. (ISW, 06.07.25)

Sunday, June 8, 2025

• French automaker Renault SA has held discussions with the French defense ministry to produce drones in Ukraine. A spokesperson for Renault said that the carmaker was contacted by the French defense ministry. (Bloomberg, 06.08.25) Looks like Renault has stopped considering a Russia return.

Tuesday, June 10, 2025

• Federal prosecutors have charged Iurii Gugnin, a New York resident and Russian national, with 22 criminal counts, including wire and bank fraud, money laundering, and conspiracy to defraud the U.S. According to a Justice Department press release, Gugnin is the founder and owner of the cryptocurrency company Evita. The FBI alleges that he used the company as a front to launder hundreds of millions of dollars for Russian entities under U.S. sanctions and to help the Russian government obtain export-controlled technologies. (Meduza, 06.10.25)

Wednesday, June 11, 2025

• Despite the existing difficulties in doing business in Russia, 67% of European companies that are presently operating in Russia (vs 66% in 2024) are not considering closing their business in Russia, according to a new survey by the Association of European Businesses (AEB). (RM, 06.11.25)

Thursday, June 12, 2025

• The world’s biggest commercial aircraft owner AerCap is in line for a payout of more than $1bn after the High Court in London ruled insurers had to cover losses from planes stranded in Russia, one of the largest sums ever awarded by the English courts. (Financial Times, 06.12.25)
• Lithuania accused Russian importers of using medical sanctions exemptions to receive goods for the use of Moscow’s military, its deputy foreign minister said. (Bloomberg, 06.12.25)
• Russian fast-food chain Vkusno i tochka, which replaced McDonald's, lobbied Putin to block buyback clauses for Western brands that exited after Ukraine's invasion. A proposed law would void such agreements if repurchase prices are below current asset values. These 'import substitution' firms have thrived in the sanctions economy, with Vkusno's revenue tripling to $2.4bn since 2021. Putin's protectionist shift contrasts with earlier openness to Western business returns under Trump. (Financial Times, 06.12.25)
• EU countries on June 12 gave final approval to new tariffs on fertilizer imports from Russia, a move aimed at cutting off revenue that could support Moscow’s war in Ukraine, despite concerns from European farmers. Justice ministers from the EU’s 27 member states signed off on the measure during a meeting in Luxembourg. (MT/AFP, 06.12.25)
• The European Union has proposed sanctioning two small Chinese banks for helping Russia get around the bloc’s existing trade restrictions, according to documents seen by Bloomberg. (Bloomberg, 06.12.25)

Friday, June 13, 2025

• Ukraine has received another tranche of 1 billion euros from the European Union from Russian assets within the framework of the Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) initiative. This was announced by Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal on Telegram June 13. (Korrespondent.net, 06.13.25)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Tuesday, June 10, 2025

• Moscow's chief negotiator in peace talks with Kyiv was a lead architect of the historical revisionism that drove Russia to invade Ukraine. Now, Vladimir Medinsky is drawing on his view of history again as he tries to convince Ukraine that it would be better off unwinding its integration with the West and embracing Moscow's terms for peace. "With Russia, it's impossible to fight a long war," Medinsky said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, citing Russia's 21-year war with Sweden in the 18th century as evidence that the country prevails in protracted fights. "We want peace," he said. "But if Ukraine keeps being driven by the national interests of others, then we will be simply forced to respond." (Wall Street Journal, 06.10.25)

Wednesday, June 11, 2025

• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who appeared before the Senate Defense Appropriations subcommittee to defend his department’s fiscal year 2026 budget planning, stated on June 10 that that "a negotiated, peaceful settlement" is in the best interest of Ukraine, Russia and the United States but that "the word victory," as well as the path to victory and to peace, have not been clearly defined. “We believe a negotiated peaceful settlement is in the best interest of both parties and our nation's interests, especially with all the competing interests around the globe,” Hegseth added. (ISW, 06.11.25, Meduza, 06.11.25)
  • Hegseth was asked by Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell — the subcommittee chair and former Republican leader —to identify the “aggressor” and “victim” in the conflict. Hegseth replied: “Russia is the aggressor.” But he declined to say that Ukraine was a “victim” in the war. McConnell offered a blunt critique of Trump’s approach to Ukraine. “It seems to me pretty obvious that America’s reputation is on the line,” said McConnell. (New York Times, 06.11.25)
  • Sen. Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, challenged Hegseth and Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, on whether Putin was going to stop at Ukraine, if successful on the battlefield there. “I don’t believe he is,” Caine said. “Remains to be seen,” Hegseth said. Graham cut off the secretary, making a reference to Nazi Germany’s territorial expansion before World War II: “Well, he says he’s not. This is the ’30s all over. It doesn’t remain to be seen.” (New York Times, 06.11.25)

Thursday, June 12, 2025

• Trump said: “I am very disappointed in Russia, but I'm disappointed with Ukraine also because I think deals could have been made, and we're losing 5-6,000 people a week... We'll get it but I'm disappointed it's not done.” (Sky News, 06.12.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

Sunday, June 8, 2025

• Lt. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich of the United States Air Force has been officially nominated as the next Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), NATO announced on June 5. Grynkewich currently serves as Director for Operations on the U.S. Joint Staff. Upon completion of U.S. national confirmation procedures, he will succeed Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli (U.S. Army) at a formal change of command ceremony at Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) in Mons, Belgium, expected later this summer. (ukdefencejournal.org.uk, 06.08.25)
• Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said to French TV channel LCI on June 8 that he is not afraid that the war in Ukraine will spread to the rest of the world because the Russians are too weak for that. That is why they cannot attack NATO, he said. (Meduza, 06.09.25)

Monday, June 9, 2025

• NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte said in his remarks at the Chatham House, 06.09.25.
• "Russia could be ready to use military force against NATO within 5 years. Let’s not kid ourselves, we’re all on the eastern flank now.” (Politico, 06.09.25)
• “Wishful thinking will not keep us safe. ... We cannot dream away the danger. Hope is not a strategy. So NATO has to become a stronger, fairer and more lethal alliance.” (AP, 06.09.25)
• “The fact is, we need a quantum leap in our collective defense. The fact is, we must have more forces and capabilities to implement our defense plans in full. The fact is, danger will not disappear even when the war in Ukraine ends.” (Politico, 06.09.25)
• "Our militaries also need thousands more armored vehicles and tanks, millions more artillery shells, and we must double our enabling capabilities, such as logistics, supply, transportation, and medical support." (Sky News, 06.09.25)
• "Russia has teamed up with China, North Korea and Iran. They are expanding their militaries and their capabilities. Putin's war machine is speeding up, not slowing down." (Sky News, 06.09.25)
• "In terms of ammunition, Russia produces in three months what the whole of NATO produces in a year, and its defense industrial base is expected to roll out 1,500 tanks, 3,000 armored vehicles and 200 Iskander missiles this year alone.” (Sky News, 06.09.25)

Tuesday, June 10, 2025 

• NATO allies will consider allowing contributions to Ukraine’s defense to be included in the new spending target alliance members are expected to adopt at a leaders’ summit later this month. The one-page declaration focuses solely on defense spending, a stark departure from last year’s statement that ran more than 5,000 words and included a pledge of long-term security assistance for Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 06.10.25)

Wednesday, June 11, 2025

• Group of Seven nations won’t try to reach consensus on a joint communique at next week’s leaders summit in Canada, people familiar with the matter said, an acknowledgment of the wide gulf that separates the U.S. from the other members on Ukraine, climate change and other issues. (Bloomberg, 06.11.25)

Thursday, June 12, 2025

• NATO is expanding its satellite surveillance capacities to scan large swaths of land, enabling the alliance to monitor military movements in Ukraine and on Russia’s borders with its eastern members, top commander Pierre Vandier said. (Bloomberg, 06.12.25)
• Italy will need a decade to meet NATO’s planned defense spending target of 5% of GDP, Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said. (Bloomberg, 06.12.25)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• A secretive FSB intelligence unit refers to the Chinese as “the enemy.” “This unit... has warned that China is a serious threat to Russian security. Its officers say that Beijing is increasingly trying to recruit Russian spies and get its hands on sensitive military technology. The intelligence officers say that China is spying on the Russian military’s operations in Ukraine to learn about Western weapons and warfare. They fear that Chinese academics are laying the groundwork to make claims on Russian territory. And they have warned that Chinese intelligence agents are carrying out espionage in the Arctic.” (New York Times, 06.07.25)
• Russian counterintelligence agents are analyzing data from the popular Chinese messaging and social media app WeChat to monitor people who might be in contact with Chinese spies, according to a Russian intelligence document obtained by The New York Times. (New York Times, 06.07.25)

Missile defense:

• NATO member states are discussing for the first time combining the alliance’s ballistic missile shield with other integrated missile-defense assets, according to people familiar with the deliberations. (Bloomberg, 06.12.25)

Nuclear arms:

• Russia is considering ending its unilateral moratorium on the deployment of intermediate- and shorter-range missiles. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said the moratorium, enacted after the collapse of a landmark arms control treaty with the United States, is “coming to its logical end.” (MT/AFP, 06.09.25)
• "Currently, the share of modern weapons and equipment in the strategic nuclear forces is already 95%," Putin told a meeting on key parameters of the draft State Armament Program for 2027–2036. The Russian leader emphasized that this figure is the highest among all nuclear powers in the world. The President added that special attention in the new state armament program should be paid to the nuclear triad, which was and remains the guarantor of Russia's sovereignty, and also plays a key role in ensuring the balance of power in the world. (Gazeta.ru 06.11.25)
• Tulsi Gabbard, the U.S. director of national intelligence, released a video June 10 warning that the world is closer to nuclear war than ever and accusing unnamed political elites of trying to foment conflict between world powers. “As we stand here today, closer to the brink of nuclear annihilation than ever before, political elite and warmongers are carelessly fomenting fear and tensions between nuclear powers,” Gabbard said in the video posted to X. (Bloomberg, 06.10.25)
• Russia has relocated dozens of its strategic bombers to more remote airbases across the country in the wake of this month's sweeping Ukrainian drone assault on Moscow's military aircraft, satellite imagery suggests. (MT/AFP, 06.12.25)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• An investigation by Important Stories reveals that Telegram, founded by Pavel Durov, is more closely tied to Russian security services (FSB) than claimed. Despite Durov’s image as a privacy advocate, he has secretly visited Russia over 50 times since 2014 and relied on Russian state-linked financiers. Telegram’s infrastructure is managed by Global Network Management (GNM), owned by Vladimir Vedeneev, whose companies also service FSB surveillance systems. (Istories, 06.10.25)

• Russian lawmakers took a major step toward the creation of a Russian "super app," passing legislation authorizing the creation of a national instant messaging service. The State Duma voted on June 10 to set up an official chat platform—“a multifunctional information exchange service”—similar to WhatsApp, the messaging app owned by Facebook's Meta and used widely in Russia. (RFE/RL, 06.10.25)
• The Dutch technology company founded by Arkady Volozh, the billionaire co-founder of Russian internet giant Yandex, on June 11 unveiled one of the world’s most powerful supercomputers. The new system, named ISEG2, debuted this week at No. 13 on the TOP500 list, the leading global ranking of supercomputer performance. (MT/AFP, 06.11.25)

Energy exports from CIS:

• The European Union's executive arm unveiled its latest package of sanctions against Russia, aiming to apply pressure to Putin by damaging the nation's energy and banking sectors. The sanctions proposed on June 10 -- which still need to be debated and passed by member states -- would ban transactions with the Nord Stream pipelines, hoping to choke off future flows of energy from Russia into Europe. The new package, which is subject to change, may be adopted when EU foreign ministers next meet on June 23. It requires the unanimous backing of all 27 member states. (Bloomberg, 06.10.25, NYT, 06.11.25)
  • The European Union's executive arm proposed banning transactions with Russia's Nord Stream gas pipelines and cutting the price cap on Russian oil as part of its latest round of sanctions against the Kremlin. The measures would prohibit EU operators from engaging in any direct or indirect transactions related to Nord Stream 1 and 2, the pipelines originally built to transport natural gas from Russia to Europe, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said June 10. (WSJ, 06.11.25)
  • The EU will stop importing refined products made with Russian crude oil and push for a lower price cap on the fossil fuel, as part of a fresh round of sanctions against Moscow for its war in Ukraine. The European Commission also proposed on June 10 to extend a financial transaction ban on Russian lenders to third countries, and prohibit the use of the Nord Stream gas pipelines to Germany as part of its 18th package of sanctions since 2022. The commission also seeks to lower the existing oil price cap from $60 to $45 per barrel. (Financial Times, 06.10.25)
  • Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico threatened to block the European Union’s new sanctions package against the Kremlin unless the bloc comes up with a way to address the potential loss of Russian energy supplies. (Bloomberg, 06.11.25)
• Germany’s state-owned SEFE signed a 10-year deal to buy gas from Azerbaijan’s Socar, a move that will help diversify supplies in Europe’s tight market. The agreement, which begins this year, allows the German trading company to buy as much as 15 terawatt-hours of gas annually, according to a release that confirmed an earlier Bloomberg report. (Bloomberg, 06.09.25)
• When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Germany realized that its dependency on natural gas piped from Russia had endangered its energy security. It had no ports to bring in alternative energy sources needed to keep its factories running and homes warm. Three years on, it now has four. (New York Times, 06.11.25)
• Western banks including Raiffeisen Bank International AG that still operate units in Russia are helping some of the last European buyers of Russian pipeline gas pay for purchases after the U.S. sanctioned Gazprombank. (Bloomberg, 06.11.25)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• Next week’s St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) will feature a discussion panel on Russia-U.S. business relations, organizers said June 10. (MT/AFP, 06.10.25)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Russian and U.S. officials could meet “very soon” for another round of talks aimed at restoring the operations of their diplomatic missions, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said June 10. (MT/AFP, 06.10.25)
• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on June 12 congratulated Russians on Russia Day, marking the first time a senior U.S. official has done so since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. (MT/AFP, 06.12.25)
• The new Russian ambassador to the United States, Alexander Darchiev, pledged to work to fully restore relations with Washington as he formally presented his credentials to Trump on June 11. (Reuters, 06.12.25)
• U.S. Ambassador to Russia Lynne Tracy will soon step down from her post, the U.S. Embassy in Moscow said in a statement on Telegram June 12. (MT/AFP, 06.12.25)
• Kremlin-friendly pundits and programs have been savoring every shot of protesters in Los Angeles this week, some proclaiming that the United States must be in midst of a new "civil war." (RFE/RL, 06.12.25)
• After more than 16 months of delays and postponements, Sergei Shestakov, a former Soviet and Russian diplomat who became a naturalized U.S. citizen and later worked as an authorized U.S. court interpreter, is set to go on trial on June 17 on charges of conspiring to help Oleg Deripaska evade U.S. sanctions imposed on him in 2018, as well as conspiring to commit money laundering. (RFE/RL, 06.12.25)
• Stephen James Hubbard, a retired American teacher taken from his eastern Ukrainian home by Russian soldiers shortly after Russia invaded in February 2022, has been located in a Russian prison in Mordovia. (New York Times, 06.12.25)
• A Russian scientist at Harvard University was freed on bail by a federal judge after spending four months in detention for failing to declare biological material she brought into the U.S. for research. After winning release June 12, Kseniia Petrova is scheduled to reappear in court on June 18 for a hearing over whether the government will proceed with a criminal charge for smuggling, which carries a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison and a $250,000 fine. (Bloomberg, 06.13.25)
• Former CIA director and Biden cabinet official William J. Burns is working on a book about his years leading the intelligence agency. A veteran diplomat, he was a key adviser to Biden on Russia, Ukraine and other parts of the world. (ABC, June 2025)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia’s lower-house State Duma on June 11 approved amendments to the 2025 budget, forecasting a drop of more than $15 billion in revenues and a wider deficit due to falling oil and gas earnings. (MT/AFP, 06.11.25)
• Russia's budget deficit rose by 168 billion rubles ($2.18 billion) in May, bringing the total for the first five months of 2025 to 3.4 trillion rubles ($44.2 billion), or 1.5% of GDP, according to the Finance Ministry. That is nearly five times higher than the same period of 2024 and nearly equal to the entire deficit planned for the full year — 3.8 trillion rubles ($49.4 billion), or 1.7% of GDP. Initially, the Finance Ministry had aimed to keep the deficit three times smaller: 1.2 trillion rubles ($15.6 billion), or 0.5% of GDP. (MT/AFP, 06.10.25)
• Russia’s monthly inflation inched up in May, marking the first acceleration in six months, though annual inflation fell over the same period. Consumer prices rose 0.43% last month, up slightly from 0.4% in April, according to data released by the state statistics agency Rosstat. (MT/AFP, 06.12.25)
• A court in the northwestern city of Pskov has placed opposition politician Lev Shlosberg under house arrest pending trial on charges of “discrediting” the Russian military, independent media reported June 11. (MT/AFP, 06.11.25)
• A Russian military court sentenced Leonid Volkov, a top aide to the late opposition leader Alexei Navalny, to 18 years in prison in absentia on charges including extremism and wartime censorship, Russian news agencies reported on June 11. (MT/AFP, 06.11.25)
• The governor of Siberia’s Zabaikalsky region dismissed his entire cabinet on June 10 after Russia’s top prosecutor asked regional law enforcement authorities to restore the issuance of government payments to the families of soldiers killed in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 06.10.25)
• Russia’s Interior Ministry has put Meduza co-founder and publisher Galina Timchenko on its wanted list, the outlet Mediazona reported on June 11, citing the ministry’s official database. In May, the Russian authorities opened a felony case against her for allegedly organizing the activities of an “undesirable” organization in Russia. (Meduza, 06.11.25)
• Foundations linked to Medvedev have amassed about $850 million since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, RFE/RL's Russian investigative unit, Systema, has found. The rising fortunes of the foundations coincides with a wartime reincarnation of Medvedev, 59, who was dismissed as prime minister by Putin in 2020. (RFE/RL, 06.10.25)

Defense and aerospace:

• Putin has approved modern Russia’s first long-term strategy for developing its navy through 2050, Kremlin aide Nikolai Patrushev said in an interview published on June 9. The strategy underscores Russia’s ambitions to restore its status as a major maritime power, Patrushev told the pro-government newspaper Argumenty i Fakty. (MT/AFP, 06.09.25)
• “The development of the Space Forces remains crucial. We need to complete the formation of an orbital constellation of space vehicles of different purpose on schedule and in full. This will enhance the capabilities of all kinds of reconnaissance as well as troops and weapons control in real time,” Putin told a meeting on the key parameters of the draft State Armament Program for 2027–2036. (Kremlin.ru, 06.12.25)
• Russia is consistently recruiting 10,000-15,000 more men per month than Ukraine, and doing it by offering big sign-on bonuses rather than relying on the conscription that is proving so divisive in Ukraine. (The Economist, 06.08.25)
• Russia’s state space agency on June 12 announced plans to build a nuclear power plant on the Moon as part of its long-term ambitions for lunar exploration. (MT/AFP, 06.12.25)
•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• The mayor of the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk was arrested on suspicion of accepting a bribe, law enforcement authorities and Russian media reported on June 9. Vladislav Loginov, a member of the ruling United Russia party, has served as mayor since 2022. (MT/AFP, 06.09.25)

• A Russian military court has sentenced Danish citizen Annabelle Jorgensen in absentia to 26 years in prison and fined her 1.7 million rubles ($21,500) for fighting in the Ukrainian military, state media reported on June 11. (Meduza, 06.11.25)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto will visit Putin in Russia next week while skipping an in-person gathering of Western leaders at the Group of Seven summit in Canada. The June 18–20 visit, at the invitation of the Russian president, will include bilateral talks and participation in the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. (Bloomberg, 06.12.25)
• The Russian paramilitary group Wagner has left Mali and its units there have been taken over by the Moscow-run Africa Corps a mysterious plane crash in August 2023 following a short-lived rebellion against Moscow. (MT/AFP, 06.08.25)
  • Wagner kidnapped, detained and tortured hundreds of civilians during its more than three years in Mali, including at former U.N. bases and military camps shared with the Malian army, according to a report published June 12 by a consortium of journalists. (MT/AFP, 06.12.25)
• Shipping lines’ willingness to use the Northern Sea Route is likely to be determined by geography, economics and geopolitics. Geography is the main point in favor, as the corridor is a far shorter means of reaching parts of Europe from Asia than alternatives. From the Japanese port of Yokohama to the Russian Arctic port of Murmansk is a journey of 12,840 nautical miles via the conventional Suez Canal route and 5,770 nautical miles via the Northern Sea Route. (Financial Times, 06.09.25)
• Those who have left Russia over the past three years are in their late 20s to mid-40s, globally minded and highly skilled. They come from Russia’s biggest cities – Moscow and St Petersburg – and predominantly work in the IT sector, academia, media, education and the arts. Most left with accumulated savings and speak fluent English. Eight out of 10 hold higher education degrees, while one in 10 has a PhD. (Chatham House, 06.06.25)
• The number of Russians granted a German passport rose more than sixfold to nearly 13,000 last year. (Bloomberg, 06.10.25)

Ukraine:

• Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, who maintains strong ties with Moscow, made his first visit to Ukraine since Russia invaded in 2022 on June 11 and said he supported the country's "territorial integrity.” (MT/AFP, 06.11.25)
• In the Chernihiv region, law enforcement officers together with the military counterintelligence of the Security Service of Ukraine uncovered corrupt actions by an official of one of the territorial recruitment and social support centers. The man demanded money in exchange for assistance in appointing a cadet to a desired position in a military unit. According to police information, for $2,000 the official promised to help the serviceman avoid being sent to a combat brigade. He has now been charged and is being held in a temporary detention facility. (Mezha, 06.10.25)
• A large-scale corruption scheme involving top officials and a developer has been uncovered, who understated the cost of land in Kyiv, causing damage to the state in excess of 1 billion, and also received multimillion-dollar benefits in the form of discounts on apartments. (Korrespondent, 06.13.215)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Latvia’s State Security Service has opened an investigation into Member of Parliament Alexey Roslikov on suspicion of inciting ethnic tensions and “assisting” Russia in actions against Latvia. (Meduza, 06.09.25)
• An Estonian court on June 11 sentenced a journalist with past ties to Russian state media to six years in prison for treason. The Harju County District Court found that Svetlana Burceva had collaborated with a reserve officer from Russia’s FSB security service in actions that threatened Estonia’s “independence and sovereignty.” (MT/AFP, 06.11.25)
• When Tajik President Emomali Rahmon and Uzbek leader Shavkat Mirziyoev travel to Moscow to meet senior Russian officials, it's just another series of meetings between leaders with deep ties. But a series of recent meetings that involved their children told a different story. (RFE/RL, 06.09.25)
• Russian ally Kyrgyzstan on June 7 quietly dismantled Central Asia's tallest monument to Vladimir Lenin. (MT/AFP, 06.07.25)

IV. Quotable and notable

• “It’s not up to me to decide how countries pay the bill,” NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte said in his remarks at the Chatham House on June 9. He said that Britain could opt not to meet the 5% target and, “you could still have the National Health Service” and other public services. “But you better learn to speak Russian,” Rutte warned. (The New York Times, 06.09.25)
• Meghan O’Sullivan, a former U.S. deputy national security adviser, said the United States military had the ability to force a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but that could create bigger issues. “Such action would bring America squarely into the conflict, moving it to greater levels of regional disruption and global uncertainty,” said O’Sullivan, who is the director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard. (New York Times, 06.13.25)

Footnotes

1. Of some 25 earlier predictions for what year Russia would be ready to attack a NATO country by, catalogued in a recent RM blog post, 2030 is the most frequently forecast year.
2. Iran launched a volley of missiles at Israel in retaliation for a major Israeli strike on the Islamic republic that has marked the onset of a new war in the Middle East. The Israel Defense Forces said some missiles were intercepted, but paramedics said numerous people had been injured by “projectile debris.” (FT, 06.13.25)
3. In the preceding 30 days, Russian forces made a gain of 590 square kilometers (228 square miles), according to a June 10, 2025, estimate by The Economist. (RM, 06.10.25)

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by AP Photo/Vahid Salemi.