6 Things to Know

1. On July 3, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump discussed Ukraine in a one-hour phone call, with the Kremlin indicating that little progress was made in the U.S. president’s efforts to bring an end to the war, Bloomberg reported. “Donald Trump once again raised the question of an early cessation of hostilities,” while Putin said Russia “will not back down” from its war aims, according to Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov’s account of the conversation. Putin told Trump that Moscow will continue to “search for a political negotiated resolution of the conflict,” but underscored that “Russia will pursue its stated goals, namely the elimination of the well-known root causes that have led to the current state of affairs and the present sharp confrontation.” The two leaders also discussed the Middle East, including Syria and Iran, with Putin stressing the need to stick to diplomatic methods of resolving conflicts in the region, according to Ushakov. Putin and Trump also discussed potential bilateral space and energy projects, but there was no discussion of a meeting between the two leaders, Ushakov told reporters. The Putin-Trump conversation, as described by Ushakov—with the White House version yet to be released as of Thursday afternoon—reaffirms that prospects for a peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict remain dim, as do the prospects for significant improvement in U.S.-Russian relations in general. Trump is unlikely to accommodate Putin’s proposals for not just stabilizing the bilateral relationship, but also expanding it, for as long as Russia rejects his calls for an unconditional and full ceasefire in Ukraine. In his turn, Putin remains reluctant to heed Trump’s calls for a full ceasefire until what Russian leaders describe as the “root causes” of the conflict (e.g., NATO’s non-expansion into Ukraine) are addressed.* 
2. The Trump administration has reportedly ordered a halt to the delivery of certain munitions to Ukraine, including some 30 interceptor missiles for Patriot air defense systems, which can shoot down ballistic missiles. Deliveries of several thousand 155-millimeter artillery shells have also been suspended, along with deliveries of 100 Hellfire missiles, over 250 GMLRS rockets, several dozen Stinger surface-to-air missiles and air-to-air missiles for F-16’s. The deliveries now on hold were all allocated under the Biden administration, and Donald Trump has not approved new military aid packages for Ukraine, according to The New York Times. Some of the Ukraine-bound shipments were reportedly already in Poland when they the hold took effect. “The Pentagon presents the interruption as a limited and temporary action, but Ukrainian officials suspect a more concerted effort by the Trump administration to squeeze political concessions out of Ukraine,” according to the Economist. Following the halt, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha called the U.S. embassy’s deputy chief of mission in Ukraine, John Ginkel, to urgently discuss military assistance, which Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Trump are also likely to talk about in a call on July 4, according to Financial Times and Bloomberg. If Russia continues to launch ballistic missiles into Ukraine at the same recent monthly level as in say, May 2025 (44, according to a CSIS estimate reported by RM), and if Ukraine tries to intercept them all, then the 30 Patriot interceptors would last less than a month.¹
3. Russia conducted its largest combined strike series of the war on the night of June 28 to 29. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russia launched a total of 537 strike vehicles, including 447 Shahed and decoy drones, according to ISW and Bloomberg. The Russian forces also launched four Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles; seven Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles; 41 Kh-101/Iskander-K cruise missiles; five Kalibr cruise missiles; and three S-300 air defense missiles. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces shot down 221 drones, one Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile, 33 Kh-101/Iskander-K cruise missiles, and four Kalibr cruise missiles, and that 225 drones and one Kh-101/Iskander-K cruise missile were "lost in location" or suppressed by Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) systems. Thus, Ukrainian forces shot down just one of the seven Iskander-M/KN-23, and it did not shoot down any of the four Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles, according to ISW. 
4. In the week preceding July 1, Russian forces gained 72 square miles of Ukrainian territory (nearly one Martha’s Vineyard island)—doubling the rate of advance from the previous week’s 36 square miles, according to the July 2, 2025 issue of RM’s Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In the past month (June 3–July 1, 2025), Russia gained 234 square miles of Ukrainian territory (area about the equivalent of the U.S. territory of Guam). That monthly total represents a modest increase from the previous month’s (May 27–June 24, 2025) total of 216 square miles, according to the card.
5. Ukraine’s front lines increasingly rely on older men, many nicknamed “Did” (Grandpa), according to The Wall Street Journal. Ukraine’s shrinking youth population means the “most common age group” in Ukrainian units is 40 to 45, according to WSJ. Yet Kyiv resists lowering the draft age, which currently ranges from 25 and 60, despite U.S. pressure, this newspaper reports.
6. The share of Russians who believe use of nuclear weapons by Russia in the course of its “conflict’ with Ukraine could be justified declined from 39% in November 2024 to 24% in June 2025, according to Russia’s Levada Center. The same period saw the share of Russians who believe such use cannot be justified grow from 45% to 65%, which constitutes a 44% increase, according to this pollster. The same period also saw the share of Russians who believe the “situation in Ukraine can escalate into an armed conflict of Russia with NATO countries” remain unchanged at 56%. That the share of Levada’s respondents who believe the use of nuclear weapons by their country against Ukraine cannot be justified has exceeded 50% (again) indicates that not only do many Russians remain wary of a radical escalation, but that they also see no need for such an escalation, given the incremental gains that Russia’s conventional forces continue to make in Ukraine.  

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• No significant developments.

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• North Korea plans to triple the number of troops it has fighting alongside Russia against Ukraine, CNN reported July 2. Ukrainian intelligence estimates cited by the network suggest Pyongyang will send between 25,000 and 30,000 soldiers to join the war in the coming months. (Meduza, 07.02.25)
• North Korean state media released images of leader Kim Jong Un mourning over flag-draped coffins of North Korean soldiers killed while fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine, as South Korea’s Defense Ministry said it has yet to see signs of additional troop deployments from the North. (MT/AFP, 07.01.25)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Iran could resume producing enriched uranium within months despite significant damage inflicted on its nuclear facilities by recent U.S. and Israeli air strikes, according to Rafael Grossi, the head of the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog. “The capacities they have are there. They can have, you know, in a matter of months, I would say, a few cascades of centrifuges spinning and producing enriched uranium, or less than that,” Grossi said. (RFE/RL, 06.29.25)
• With faith in Moscow at a low point, Iran is now urgently seeking to rebuild its defenses—and is turning to China for the advanced military hardware that Russia has failed to deliver. Russia’s support for Iran during this crisis has proven largely rhetorical. As the reformist newspaper Shargh notes, “this alliance, at critical junctures, is based more on shifting interests than on steadfast commitments.” While Russian President Vladimir Putin condemned the U.S. strikes as “unjustified” and offered dialogue, he made no commitment to military assistance. (RFE/RL, 07.01.25)
• In their first call in almost three years, French President Emmanuel Macron and Putin appeared on July 1 to find some common ground on Iran, but they continued to be at loggerheads over the war in Ukraine. Macron and Putin both said they planned to coordinate their efforts on Iran. When it came to Ukraine, the Élysée Palace said “the two presidents will also continue to talk about this issue.” (New York Times, 07.02.25)
  • Macron wrong-footed other European leaders with a phone call to Putin to mainly discuss Iran, signaling that other geopolitical priorities are denting a unified effort to isolate the Kremlin. (Bloomberg, 07.02.25)
  • Macron reached out to Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy to brief him about his phone call with Putin on July 1. (Bloomberg, 07.01.25)
• The Iran-Israel conflict became the most memorable event of June for Russians, according to Levada’s poll. Most respondents know about what happened, and only 12% have not heard anything about it. The majority of respondents, 61%, do not sympathize with either side of the conflict, a third of respondents sympathize with Iran (29%) and 3% of respondents sympathize with Israel. (Levada, 07.01.25)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• The United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (U.N. OHCHR) issued its December 2024-May 2025 report detailing Ukrainian civilian casualties, systemic Russian mistreatment of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) and limited Ukrainian mistreatment of Russian POWs. The U.N. OHCHR reported that 968 Ukrainian civilians died and 4,807 sustained injuries from conflict-related violence from Dec. 1, 2024, to May 31, 2025—a 37% increase compared to the same time period last year. (ISW, 06.30.25)
• In Kupiansk, around 1,000 residents remain, according to government figures. Their homes are at constant risk from artillery, aerial bombs and drones, said Liana Shcherbyna, head of the Proliska Humanitarian Center in the Kharkiv region, which helps evacuate civilians. “Almost every day, there are civilian casualties,” she said. (New York Times, 07.01.25)
• As Russian forces push closer to Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region, many families already displaced by war are being forced to flee once more. (RFE/RL, 06.30.25)
• Russia is training Ukrainian children to become drone operators for future service in the Russian military or employment in the Russian defense industrial base. Occupied Luhansk Oblast-based media reported on June 30 that 20 children from occupied Luhansk Oblast took part in the regional stage of the “Pilots of the Future-2025” drone operation competition. (ISW, 07.03.25)
• Children of Russian soldiers deployed to Ukraine are increasingly being classified as “at-risk” and removed from their homes to state-run orphanages and boarding schools, according. Olga Kazantseva, the children’s rights commissioner for the Altai region, warned of a “rise in indicators of family dysfunction” among families of those serving in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 07.02.25)
• Zelenskyy on June 29 signed a decree putting his war-torn country on track to leave the anti-landmine Ottawa Convention, according to a document published on his website. (MT/AFP, 06.29.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the week preceding July 1, Russian forces gained 72 square miles of Ukrainian territory (nearly one Martha’s Vineyard island)—doubling the rate of advance from the previous week’s 36 square miles, according to the July 2, 2025 issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In the past month (June 3–July 1, 2025), Russia gained 234 square miles (an area about the equivalent of the U.S. territory of Guam). That represents a modest increase from the previous month’s (May 27–June 24, 2025) total of 216 square miles, according to the card. (RM, 07.02.25)
  • In the 30 days preceding July 2, Russian forces made a gain of 498 square kilometers (192 square miles), according to a July 1, 2025 estimate by The Economist. (RM, 07.02.25)
  • According to Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group’s map, as of July 1, 2025, Russian forces occupied a total 113,673 square kilometers of Ukrainian land (43,889 square miles), which constituted 18.8% of Ukrainian territory. (RM, 07.02.25)

Friday, June 27, 2025

• On June 27, Russian forces captured the Ukrainian settlements of Novosilka and Odradne, according to Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group’s map. (RM, 07.03.25)
• On June 27, Ukraine launched a successful Uncrewed Aerial System (UAS) attack on Marinovka airfield in Volgograd, Russia. The strike almost certainly destroyed at least two Russian Su-34 fighter bomber aircraft. Russia has now lost more than 30 Su-34 FULLBACK aircraft during the course of the Ukraine conflict. (U.K. Ministry of Defense’s X (Twitter) account, 07.03.25) 

Saturday, June 28, 2025

• Ukraine's Security Service reported on June 28 that the SBU conducted a drone strike that destroyed a Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense system and three combat helicopters—Mi-8, Mi-26 and Mi-28—at the Kirovske Air Base in occupied Crimea on the night of June 27 and 28. (ISW, 06.28.25)
• A Russian drone strike on the southern Ukrainian city of Odesa killed two people and wounded 14, including children, local authorities said June 28. (MT/AFP, 06.28.25)
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration Head Serhiy Lysak reported on June 28 that Ukrainian air defenses downed a Russian Grom-1 hybrid missile-bomb on the outskirts of Dnipro City. (ISW, 06.28.25)
• All men between the ages of 25 and 60 can be drafted to serve in Ukraine’s 880,000-strong defense forces. Ukrainian soldiers say the units’ most common age group is 40 to 45. The call sign “Did”—meaning “Grandpa”—is so widespread in Ukraine’s military that on one four-man howitzer crew on the eastern front, two of the soldiers share it. The ubiquity of the nickname points to a growing problem Ukraine faces as its war for survival continues into its fourth year: It needs all the fighters it can get. (Wall Street Journal, 06.28.25)

Sunday, June 29, 2025

• Russia conducted its largest combined strike series of the war on the night of June 28 to 29 by launching over 500 missiles and drones against Ukraine. Russia targeted seven regions across Ukraine including Lviv, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzia. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian launched a total of 537 strike vehicles, including 447 Shahed and decoy drones. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces also launched four Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles from the airspace above Tambov Oblast; seven Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles; 41 Kh-101/Iskander-K cruise missiles; five Kalibr cruise missiles; and three S-300 air defense missiles. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces shot down 221 drones, one Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile, 33 Kh-101/Iskander-K cruise missiles, and four Kalibr cruise missiles and that 225 drones and one Kh-101/Iskander-K cruise missile were "lost in location" or suppressed by Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) systems. Ukrainian forces did not shoot down any of the four Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles during the June 28 to 29 strike series. (ISW, 06.29.25, Bloomberg, 06.29.25)
  • Ukraine’s air force said one of its F-16 pilots, Let. Col. Maksym Ustymenko, was killed after his aircraft sustained damage while downing seven aerial targets. (Financial Times, 06.29.25)
  • Zelenskyy accused Russia of “targeting everything that sustains life.” (RFE/RL, 06.29.25)

Monday, June 30, 2025

• On June 30, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Russian forces occupied Ukraine’s Kopteve. (RM, 07.03.25)
• On June 30, Russian forces were reported to be just 12 miles from the northern Ukrainian regional capital of Sumy, a new target for Moscow. With 50,000 troops in the area, the Russians outnumber the Ukrainians roughly 3-to-1, according to soldiers fighting there.  “Their main strategy,” Gen. Oleksandr Syrskiy, Ukraine’s top military commander, said of the Russians, is to “wear us down with their numbers.” (Wall Street Journal 06.30.25)
• A report released last month by the Center for Strategic and International Studies said Russia had significantly ramped up its use of drones starting last fall, ''increasing from approximately 200 launched per week to more than 1,000 per week by March 2025 as part of a sustained pressure campaign.'' (New York Times, 06.30.25)
• A 16-year-old Ukrainian was arrested and accused of spying for Russia, Ukraine’s SBU said earlier this week. Ukrainian officials said he was recruited by Russia’s FSB via the messenger app Telegram, on which Russian operatives have increasingly targeted young users with offers of quick cash in exchange for their collaboration. (Financial Times, 06.30.25)

Tuesday, July 1, 2025

• The Moscow-appointed head of Ukraine’s occupied Luhansk region claimed July 1 that Russian forces now have full control of the territory. “Just two days ago, a report was released stating that the territory of the Luhansk People’s Republic has been completely liberated—100%,” Leonid Pasechnik said on Russia’s state-run Channel One. (MT/AFP, 07.01.25)
  • Russian milbloggers denied Pasechnik's claim, however, stating that Russian forces have not cleared Nadiya and Novoyehorivka (both east of Borova). (ISW, 07.01.25)
• A Ukrainian drone strike hit a facility overnight in Russia’s industrial city of Izhevsk, more than 1,000 kilometers east of Moscow, killing three people and seriously injuring 35, according to Udmurtia's regional governor. (RFE/RL, 07.01.25)

Thursday, July 3, 2025

• Russian forces launched an Iskander ballistic missile strike on the port of Odesa on July 3 afternoon. The attack reportedly killed two people and injured six others, including port workers and two Syrian nationals from the ship’s crew. (Meduza, 07.03.25)
• Overnight on July 2-3, the Russian army also struck a residential building in Odesa. Five people were injured, including a boy and a girl aged 7 and 9, the local administration reported. (Istories, 07.03.25)
• On July 3, Russian armed forces struck Poltava. Two people were killed, 47 were wounded. The strike hit the city and regional territorial recruitment centers (TRC; similar to military registration and enlistment offices). (Istories, 07.03.25)
• A 70-year-old woman was killed and two others were wounded in a Ukrainian drone strike in the central Lipetsk region of Russia early July 3, with authorities in Kyiv saying they targeted a Russian military battery manufacturing plant. (MT/AFP, 07.03.25)
• The deputy commander of Russia’s Navy, Maj. Gen. Mikhail Gudkov, was killed in a Ukrainian attack in the Kursk region, Russian authorities said July 3. Unconfirmed media reports suggested Gudkov and 10 other senior military officers were killed in a Ukrainian missile strike on their command post near the town of Korenevo, around 30 kilometers (19 miles) from the border with Ukraine’s Sumy region. Gudkov previously commanded the Russian Pacific Fleet’s 155th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade, based in the Far East Primorye region, before being praised and promoted by Putin to deputy Navy chief in March. (MT/AFP, 07.03.25, Barents Observer, 07.03.25)
• On July 3, an explosion occurred near the local history museum of Luhansk, killing the former occupation mayor of the city Manolis Pivalov, and three more people were injured, TASS reports. According to "RBK Ukraine," the murder of Pivalov was an SBU operation. (Istories, 07.03.25)
• Russian forces have become adept at retooling Iranian kamikaze Shahed drones, making them more deadly and less vulnerable to Ukrainian defenses, according to Kyiv. Forensic expert Oleksandr Vysikan of the Kyiv Research Institute of Forensic Examinations said “[Russian forces] now use a more powerful warhead. We see that they have changed the design and some electronics because of the different warhead,” Vysikan said. The modernized Shahed drones also feature a range of advanced technologies, including protected 16-channel satellite antennas. (RFE/RL, 07.03.25)
• The level of support for the actions of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine decreased from 80% in May to 74% in June, according to the Levada pollster. (Levada, 07.03.25)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ordered a halt to the delivery of certain munitions to Ukraine, including some 30 missiles for the Patriot air defense system. Several thousand 155-millimeter artillery shells will also not be sent, along with more than 100 Hellfire missiles, over 250 precision-guided GMLRS rockets, several dozen Stinger surface-to-air missiles and AIM air-to-air missiles, which are fired by American-made F-16 jets, as well as grenade launchers, according to NBC. (Meduza, 07.02.25, New York Times, 07.03.25, Meduza, 07.02.25) 
  • The deliveries now on hold were all allocated under the Biden administration, and U.S. President Donald Trump has not approved new military aid packages for Ukraine. Washington had committed to delivering as much as $11 billion in weapons and equipment to Ukraine this year. Among the munitions now being withheld are missiles for U.S.-designed Patriot air defense systems, precision artillery rounds and other missiles that Ukraine fires from its American-made F-16 fighter jets. Although it is unclear how many weapons were included, the signal seems clear: Washington is disengaging from the war. (New York Times, 07.03.25)
  • Anna Kelly, a White House spokeswoman, said, "This decision was made to put America's interests first" following a Pentagon review of U.S. military assistance. The shipments were in Poland when they were halted. (Wall Street Journal, 07.02.25)
  • The Pentagon said the pause was intended to enable a general review of weapons deliveries to promote an end to the war in Ukraine “while also preserving U.S. military readiness and defense priorities.” Sean Parnell, the Pentagon spokesman, added: “We can’t give weapons to everybody all around the world. We have to look out for America and defending our homeland and our troops around the world.” Officials said the review was global. (Economist, 07.02.25)
  • U.S. State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce rejected media reports suggesting that Washington has halted all weapons supplies to Ukraine. (Meduza, 07.02.25)
  • “I understand there are threats in the Indo-Pacific area and in the Middle East and we should be replenishing stockpiles but the solution is to produce more, not withhold it from Ukraine,” Sen. Richard Blumenthal, a Connecticut Democrat, said. (Bloomberg, 07.02.25)
  • Ukraine has eight Patriot systems, six of which are operational, largely to protect Kyiv, the capital, a prime target of Russian attacks. (New York Times, 07.03.25)
  • Zelenskyy is likely to hold a phone call with Trump on July 4 to discuss the U.S. decision to pause the transfer of artillery rounds and air defenses to Ukraine, a person familiar with the matter said. (Bloomberg, 07.03.25)
  • Ukraine's Defense Ministry said that it had "not received any official notifications" about the "suspension or revision of the delivery schedules" for U.S. military assistance. (Washington Post, 07.02.25)
  • Ukraine’s foreign minister Andriy Sybiha called the U.S. embassy’s deputy chief of mission in Ukraine, John Ginkel, to the ministry of foreign affairs in Kyiv to urgently discuss military assistance and defense cooperation. (Financial Times, 07.02.25)
  • The Pentagon presents the interruption as a limited and temporary action. But Ukrainian officials suspect a more concerted effort by the Trump administration to squeeze political concessions out of Ukraine, as it did in early March when it briefly stopped arms deliveries and intelligence cooperation after an infamous televised bust-up between Trump and Zelenskyy. (Economist, 07.02.25)
  • European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, also in Denmark, said of the U.S. move: “It’s a clear signal, a clear message to step up our support. So ramping up our European defense capacities, not only at the level of the European Union, but a continental level.” (Financial Times, 07.03.25)
  • Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said: “We will look into the decisions pending in Washington,” adding that she hoped the transatlantic partnership, also in relation to Ukraine, would remain. “If there will be any gaps, I think we have to fill them now,” she said. (Financial Times, 07.03.25)
  • The Kremlin welcomed the U.S. decision. “The less weaponry is supplied to Ukraine, the sooner the [invasion] will end,” spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, according to Interfax. (Financial Times, 07.02.25)
• Ukraine and the United States agreed on the large-scale production of drones of various types during Zelenskyy's visit to Denmark. This was reported by the press service of the Ukrainian leader on July 3. (Korrespondent.net, 07.03.25)
• The Ukrainian industry is already capable of producing up to 10 million drones per year, announced Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov during a meeting in Kyiv with representatives of the German defense industry, which was joined by more than 20 leading enterprises. (Korrespondent.net, 07.03.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• Since Trump returned to office in January, the United States has issued no new sanctions against Russia related to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In some cases, the administration has eased restrictions. And without new ones, analysts say, existing measures lose their force. The result has created an opening for new dummy companies to funnel funds and critical components to Russia, including computer chips and military equipment that would otherwise be cut off to the Kremlin, trade and corporate records show. (New York Times, 07.02.25)
• A new cryptocurrency token designed to allow cross-border payments in spite of Western sanctions on Russia has moved some $9.3 billion on a dedicated crypto exchange in just four months since it was launched, the FT has found. Billed as the first stablecoin pegged to the Russian ruble, the A7A5 token was officially launched in Kyrgyzstan in February and aims to facilitate large-scale financial flows into and out of Russia, which have been severely complicated by Western restrictions. A7, the company initially behind the token, now subject to British sanctions, is majority-owned by Moldovan businessman Ilan Șor. (Financial Times, 06.25.25)
• The U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has just added the bulletproof hosting (BPH) services provider Aeza Group to its Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) list, a roster of individuals and organizations that pose threats to U.S. national security. In a statement, the OFAC says that the US is sanctioning the Russia-based web hosting company for its role in supporting cybercrimes that target victims in the U.S. and around the world. (dailyhodl, 07.03.25)
• Russian-made passenger aircraft meant to replace Boeing and Airbus jets have sharply risen in price, the latest hurdle in Moscow’s efforts to build a self-reliant civil aviation sector. According to Transportation Ministry meeting minutes obtained by the pro-Kremlin daily Izvestia, the prices of domestically produced planes have jumped by 45 to 70% over the past two years, driven by higher production costs and Russia’s ongoing dependence on imported parts. (MT/AFP, 07.03.25)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• “Donald Trump once again raised the question of an early cessation of hostilities,” while Putin said Russia will not back down from its war aims, according to Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov’s account of the conversation. Putin told Trump that Moscow will continue to “search for a political negotiated resolution of the conflict,” but underscored that “Russia will pursue its stated goals, namely the elimination of the well-known root causes that have led to the current state of affairs and the present sharp confrontation.” The two leaders also discussed the Middle East, including Syria and Iran, with Putin underscoring the need to stick to diplomatic methods of resolving conflicts in the region, according to Ushakov. The two also discussed potential bilateral space and energy projects, but there was no discussion of a meeting between the two leaders, Ushakov told reporters, according to Bloomberg. (RM, 07.03.25)
• U.S. special envoy Keith Kellogg on June 30 dismissed recent Russian claims that Washington and Kyiv are delaying peace talks, calling them “unfounded.” “Peskov’s recent comments on the state of negotiations are Orwellian. Russian claims that it is the U.S. and Ukraine stalling peace talks are unfounded,” Kellogg wrote on X. Kellogg also stressed that Trump has been “consistent and adamant about making progress to end the war.” (Meduza, 07.01.25)
  • “No one is delaying anything here,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. “We’re interested in achieving our goals, which we are pursuing through the special military operation [and] by political and diplomatic means.” (MT/AFP, 07.01.25)
• German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul has accused Russia of wanting to "subjugate" Ukraine and says Putin has no desire to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. Speaking in Kyiv on June 30 during his first visit to Ukraine since becoming Germany's top diplomat, Wadephul joined recent criticism of Russia from many of Ukraine's allies as talk of a cease-fire in Europe's longest and deadliest conflict since the end of World War II make no progress. (RFE/RL, 06.30.25)
• In June, 64% of Russian respondents said they support peace talks, the same as in May. The share of those who prefer the continuation of hostilities over peace talks went from 28% to 29% over the same period of time, according to Levada. (Levada, 07.03.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• U.S. Air Force Gen. Alexus Grynkewich took command July 1 of the U.S. military mission in Europe, returning in a new role after more than a decade to a headquarters transformed by war on the Continent. Grynkewich replaced the retiring Gen. Christopher Cavoli during a ceremony at U.S. European Command’s Patch Barracks and recalled his experience in Stuttgart in 2012, when the idea of a Russian push into Europe was an afterthought. “In those days, we were mostly worried about Israel at this headquarters,” he said. “We were in the midst of another attempt at a resetting of relations with Russia. China never crossed our minds. And we would never have contemplated the role for Iranian weapons or North Korean soldiers on the European continent.” (Stripes.com, 07.01.25)
• Poland will boost its production of howitzer ammunition fivefold as the country seeks to reduce dependence on imported weaponry and protect itself from the Russian threat in the east, according to state assets minister Jakub Jaworowski. In an interview with the Financial Times, Jaworowski said state-controlled defense group PGZ would “in the coming days” receive 2.4bn zlotys ($663mn) in government funds to increase the output of large-caliber ammunition and address one of Poland’s most pressing defense shortfalls. (Financial Times, 06.30.25)
• The share of Russians who believe the situation in Ukraine can escalate into an armed conflict of Russia with NATO countries stayed at 56% in November 2024 to June 2025. The share of Russians who believe the situation in Ukraine cannot escalate into an armed conflict of Russia with NATO countries went from 30% in November 2024 to 31% in June 2025, according to Levada. (Levada, 07.03.25)
• Joe Biden, in his lengthiest public remarks since he revealed his cancer diagnosis in May, said some of his presidency's key accomplishments were "changing so rapidly" under the Trump administration and that European leaders had sought his advice since he left the White House. "We strengthened NATO in a significant way," he said July 2. Now, he said, "I'm getting calls—I'm not going to go into it, I can't—from a number of European leaders asking me to get engaged." He added: "I'm not, but I'm giving advice." (Wall Street Journal, 07.03.25)
• Starting this week, Danish women turning 18 will be eligible to be entered into a draft lottery for military service that was previously mandatory for only men. (The Washington Post, 07.03.25)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Russian base metals sales to China surged in the first five months of 2025, underscoring its economic dependence on its Asian neighbor even as the country seeks to diversify trade.  Russian aluminum sales to China through May jumped by almost 56% year-on-year to nearly 1 million tons, copper sales advanced 66%, while nickel imports more than doubled. (Bloomberg, 06.30.25)
• Valentin Gogol, the founder of a company that supplies nannies for members of the Russian elite, said he had been scrambling to meet ever-growing demand for Chinese speakers. Salaries now run to $5,000 per month, he said, generally high by Russian standards, and still, ''The process of recruiting has been quite hard.'' (New York Times, 07.01.25.)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• The share of Russians who believe use of nuclear weapons by Russia in the course of its “conflict’ with Ukraine could be justified declined from 39% in November 2024 to 24% in June 2025, according to Russia’s Levada Center. The same period saw the share of Russians who believe such use cannot be justified grow from 45% to 65%, which constitutes a 44% increase, according to this pollster. (RM, 07.03.25)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• Trump signed an executive order terminating American sanctions on Syria, aiming to boost the Arab nation’s battered economy and support the new government after rebels overthrew the regime of Bashar Al-Assad last year. (Bloomberg, 06.30.25)

Cyber security/AI: 

• No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

• BRICS countries remain major fossil fuel producers, but the group together produced 51% of the world’s solar energy in 2024—up from 15% a decade earlier, energy research firm Ember said in the report. China accounted for the lion’s share, and alone produced 39%, but India made up 6.3% and Brazil totaled 3.5%. (Bloomberg, 07.02.25)
• Russia’s oil revenue in June slumped to a two-year low as global crude prices fell and the ruble strengthened, meaning each barrel brought fewer rubles to the Kremlin. Proceeds from the oil industry shrank by almost 30% to 415.6 billion rubles ($5.27 billion), according to Bloomberg calculations based on Finance Ministry data published July 3. That’s the lowest since June 2023. (Bloomberg, 07.03.25)
• Russian natural gas exports to Europe have fallen to their lowest level in half a century, leaving state energy giant Gazprom. Between January and June, Gazprom shipped just 8.33 billion cubic meters of gas to European clients, according to figures compiled by Reuters from daily data on TurkStream, the only remaining active pipeline from Russia to Europe. That represents a 47% drop from the same period in 2024 and puts Russia on track to deliver less than 16 billion cubic meters to the continent this year. (MT/AFP, 07.02.25)
• Russia's Arctic LNG 2 project raised production to record levels during the last days of June, with natural gas output averaging 14 million cubic meters a day on June 28 and 29. The facility, located above the Arctic Circle, is key for Russia's ambition to triple LNG production by 2030, despite international restrictions after the invasion of Ukraine. A liquefied gas tanker, previously blacklisted by the U.S., EU, and U.K., appeared to load a cargo at the facility, suggesting Russia may be finding ways around the penalties. (Bloomberg, 06.30.25)
• British authorities have identified two Azerbaijani nationals with close ties to Russia’s state oil giant Rosneft as key players in a sprawling network that has moved billions of dollars' worth of Russian oil in defiance of Western sanctions. Britain’s National Crime Agency (NCA) named Etibar Eyyub and Tahir Garaev as central figures in what it describes as an increasingly sophisticated “shadow trade” system designed to obscure the origins of sanctioned Russian crude. According to the report, Eyyub and Garaev were granted “privileged access” to Rosneft oil products. (MT/AFP, 07.03.25)
• Germany has increased checks on tankers in the Baltic Sea as it seeks to deter Russia’s shadow fleet of ageing vessels from circumventing western oil sanctions. German maritime authorities said on July 1 they had started requesting insurance documentation from tankers heading east through the 18km-wide strait, which separates the small, north German island of Fehmarn and the southern Danish coastline on the island of Lolland. (Financial Times, 07.02.25)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• A CIA report declassified on July 2 weakened an earlier determination that Putin had "aspired" to help elect Trump in the 2016 presidential election, supporting Trump's longstanding claim that the Kremlin played no role in his victory. The internal review, ordered by CIA Director John Ratcliffe in May and completed last week, investigated the creation of a highly classified December 2016 intelligence-community assessment of Russia's influence campaign targeting that year's presidential election. The review determined that the intelligence assessment shouldn't have placed "high confidence" in its evaluation of Putin's aims. (Wall Street Journal, 07.03.25)
  • CIA Director John Ratcliffe said he had ordered the review to focus on the earlier report’s “most debated judgment—that Russian President Vladimir Putin ‘aspired’ to help then-candidate Donald Trump win the election.” The report found no reason to retract that claim. At the same time, the review highlighted the 2016 assessment’s “analytic rigor.” (Bloomberg, 07.02.25)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Business activity in Russia’s manufacturing sector registered its most significant drop since the early months of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to new data released by S&P Global. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for Russian manufacturing sank to 47.5, down from 50.2 in May. Any reading below 50 indicates a contraction. (MT/AFP, 07.01.25)
• Wage arrears among Russian companies surged in early 2025, reflecting growing financial pressures on businesses across several key industries, according to a report from the General Confederation of Trade Unions obtained by the pro-Kremlin daily Izvestia. While official government statistics indicate that wage arrears increased from 500 million rubles ($6 million) in January to 1.5 billion rubles ($18 million) by March, the trade union report estimates the actual total to be significantly higher — reaching 2.4 billion rubles ($30 million) in the first quarter of the year. (MT/AFP, 07.02.25)
• Russia’s wealthiest business magnates pulled a record amount of cash from their companies in the form of dividends in 2024, Forbes Russia has said in a new report. According to Forbes Russia, the total payouts from major Russian corporations to 50 of the wealthiest businessmen in the country reached a historic high of 1.769 trillion rubles ($20 billion) in 2024. In comparison, these figures had remained under 1.4 trillion rubles ($18.2 billion) in both 2022 and 2023. (The Moscow Times, 07.03.25)
• Uncertain personal finances and the national economic climate are among Russians' top reasons for delaying or forgoing having children, according to survey results obtained by the RBC news website. The survey, conducted by the CSP Platform and the company Online Interviewer, polled respondents from a variety of socioeconomic backgrounds and allowed participants to choose up to five factors that influence their decisions about parenthood. Among the 1,200 respondents aged 18 to 49, 79% chose financial circumstances as a deterrent to having children. (MT/AFP, 07.01.25)
• Russia’s car market contracted in the first half of 2025 as high borrowing costs and fees put off many potential buyers, setting the industry on course to reverse two years of rebounding growth. From January through June, sales of passenger and light commercial vehicles fell to 546,430, down 27% from the same period last year, according to the Association of European Businesses. (Bloomberg, 07.03.25)
  • The number of new foreign car models introduced in Russia has plummeted in 2025, reflecting a sharp downturn in consumer demand and a broader slump in the country’s auto market, according to the analytical agency Avtostat. Only about 20 new foreign models were launched in the first half of the year compared to more than 100 during the same period in 2024. (MT/AFP, 07.02.25)
• Russian businessmen have pumped record amounts out of their companies amid the bank lending crisis and declining investment activity. According to Forbes, the total amount of payments from large Russian companies to 50 businessmen reached a historic high of 1.769 trillion rubles ($22.4 billion) in 2024. For comparison, this amount did not exceed 1.4 trillion rubles in 2022 and 2023. (The Moscow Times, 07.03.25)
• Russian state-owned bank VTB has reported a growing share of overdue retail loans, the bank’s chief financial officer told journalists July 1. The proportion of non-performing loans (NPLs), those overdue by more than 90 days, in the bank’s portfolio climbed to 4% in May compared with 3.9% in April and 3.5% at the end of 2024. (MT/AFP, 07.01.25)
• Amid rampant speculation about his health, Ramzan Kadyrov, the Kremlin-allied strongman who rules the region, has been noticeably absent from view. Kadyrov’s own succession plan could be resting on his 17-year-old son, who got married and received congratulations from Putin over the weekend. But that would require circumventing Russian law requiring regional leaders to be at least 30 years old. (New York Times, 07.03.25)

Defense and aerospace:

• The Russian military command is modernizing Russian training grounds to include motorcycle tracks and reportedly intends to purchase up to 200,000 Chinese-made motorcycles for the Russian military. (ISW, 07.01.25)
• Under current law, Russian men between the ages of 18 and 30 are subject to conscription but can obtain an exemption for poor health or pre-existing conditions. A government proposal outlining criteria for mandatory military service calls for the share of exempt men to be reduced to 17.5% by 2030 and to 16% by 2036, TASS reported. (MT/AFP, 06.30.25)
• A Russian Sukhoi Su-34 fighter-bomber crashed during a training flight in the Nizhny Novgorod region, the Interfax news agency reported on July 1. (MT/AFP, 07.01.25)
•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Putin has expanded the range of information covered by Russia’s state secrecy law, further tightening his grip on society as his war in Ukraine continues. Details of Russia’s foreign policy, international trade and economic policy, scientific developments and preparations for possible military mobilization may all now be classified as secret if disclosure is considered to harm national security, according to a decree published on the government’s legal website. Anyone receiving such material in an unauthorized way could face as much as eight years in prison. (Bloomberg, 06.29.25)
• A Moscow court on July 1 sentenced former Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov to 13 years in prison on corruption charges. Ivanov, who had overseen military construction projects since his 2016 appointment, was arrested in April 2024. His case marked the start of a wider Kremlin-led crackdown on corruption within the Defense Ministry, which has seen the arrests of several other high-ranking officers. Initially charged with bribery, prosecutors later accused Ivanov of embezzling 4.1 billion rubles ($52.4 million) through foreign bank transfers and an additional 216 million rubles ($2.7 million) during the purchase of two ferries for a crossing between Russia and annexed Crimea. (MT/AFP, 07.01.25)
• Russia’s FSB said July 3 that it arrested a 23-year-old woman who allegedly tried to place a bomb under the car of a defense industry employee in St. Petersburg. The FSB claimed the woman had tracked the employee’s movements since moving to St. Petersburg in April. (MT/AFP, 07.03.25)
• Russia is seeking to seize assets from the family of a billionaire that owns one of the country’s largest gold miners. The Prosecutor General’s Office wants to nationalize assets owned by Konstantin Strukov’s family and his close associates, including the stake in Yuzhuralzoloto PJSC, Russia’s fourth biggest gold miner. (Bloomberg, 07.03.25)

• Russia’s Digital Development Ministry announced that, starting July 1, foreign nationals who are not registered in the country’s Unified Biometric System will begin to have their mobile service disconnected. (Meduza, 07.01.25)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including  relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Putin signed a decree in an attempt to attract new foreign investment into Russia’s financial markets, despite sweeping sanctions over the war in Ukraine. Under the new rules, foreign investors — including those from so-called “unfriendly” countries — will be allowed to invest in Russian securities without having their funds trapped in special Type C accounts, according to the document published July 1 on the government’s legal portal. (Bloomberg, 07.01.25)
• Russia said on July 3 it had accepted the credentials of a new ambassador of Afghanistan, making it the first nation to recognize the Taliban government of the country. (Reuters, 07.03.25)
• Rosatom Corp. is in talks to sell a 49% stake in the $25 billion power plant it's building in Turkey to Turkish and foreign investors. (Bloomberg, 07.01.25)
• A Taliban diplomat will on July 1 assume the role as Afghanistan's ambassador to Russia, the Islamist group's first top envoy to Moscow since seizing power in 2021, Russian state media reported. Gul Hassan, a former consul in Pakistan, arrived in the capital earlier on July 1 and will soon "take up his duties," the state-run TASS news agency said. (MT/AFP, 07.01.25)
• Telegram founder Pavel Durov has claimed that a targeted disinformation campaign may be underway to undermine the popular messaging app’s reputation, pointing to what he described as a series of misleading news reports and online attacks. (MT/AFP, 07.03.25)

Ukraine:

• Ukraine’s state budget has attracted $22 billion in external financing since the beginning of the year. (Korrespondent.net, 07.03.25)
• Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister and National Unity Minister Oleksii Chernyshov will keep his position after a decision from the High Anti-Corruption Court on July 2, despite an ongoing corruption investigation. Chernyshov is a suspect in a "large-scale" illegal land grab corruption case. After a court hearing on June 27, he was banned from traveling abroad without permission and slapped with a bail set at Hr 120 million ($2.9 million) while awaiting trial. (Kyiv Independent, 07.02.25)
• On July 3, the Appeals Chamber of the High Anti-Corruption Court (HACC) issued a ruling that significantly reduced the bail for the wife of the head of the Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine, Alla Kyrylenko. The bail, previously set at 9 million hryvnias, was lowered to 242 thousand hryvnias. (Mezha, 07.03.25)
• The American fast-food giant McDonald’s plans to open about 10 new restaurants in Ukraine this year, a testament to the country’s rebounding economy and its enduring love of Big Macs. (New York Times, 06.30.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan, an oil-rich former Soviet republic, have dramatically deteriorated after a campaign of arrests against each other's citizens that could herald a major realignment. The latest crisis began after an arrest operation against ethnic Azeris conducted by Russian law enforcement last week netted 50 people in Yekaterinburg, a city in Russia's Ural Mountains. Police said it was a part of a decades-old investigation into contract killings in the city. Two Azerbaijani men died in custody. On June 30, Azerbaijani police raided the Baku office of Sputnik Azerbaijan to arrest director Igor Kartavykh and editor in chief Yevgeny Belousov. Then on July 1, a court in Baku ordered the detention of eight Russians, mostly IT specialists, in a separate raid and accused them of cybercrimes and smuggling drugs from Iran. In the courtroom footage, the defendants appeared to have been severely beaten. (The Washington Post, 07.03.25)
• After months of simmering tensions in the country, Georgia is slowly moving up the EU’s agenda again, driven by a wave of arrests of opposition figures and new restrictive laws such as the Foreign Agents Registration Act and changes to broadcasting regulations. (RFE/RL, 06.30.25)
• Moldova’s ruling pro-European party is leading in a new opinion poll three months ahead of a general election that’s crucial for maintaining the country’s course to join the European Union by the end of the decade. Prime Minister Dorin Recean’s Action and Solidarity Party would take about 40% of the vote or 49 seats in parliament if elections were scheduled next June 29, according to a survey by iData published by HotNews on June 30. (Bloomberg, 06.30.25)
• Putin on July 2 praised Kyrgyzstan for preserving the “special status” of the Russian language, even as the Central Asian country moves to strengthen the use of Kyrgyz in public life. “I’d like to note and thank you for the fact that the Russian language has been given a special status in Kyrgyzstan,” Putin told Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov during talks at the Kremlin. (MT/AFP, 07.02.25)

IV. Quotable and notable

• No significant developments.

Footnotes

1. Ukraine has eight Patriot systems, six of which are operational, largely to protect Kyiv, the capital, a prime target of Russian attacks, according to The New York Times.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by AP Photo/Michal Dyjuk, File.