Find past issues in the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card archive. 

July 1 update: In the past week, Russian forces gained 72 square miles of Ukrainian territory (nearly one Martha’s Vineyard island)—doubling the rate of advance from the previous week’s 36 square miles. Russian forces also launched 477 drones and decoys as well as 60 missiles at Ukraine overnight, Kyiv said June 29, describing the attack as the biggest air strike on the country since the war began, The Guardian and RFE/RL reported.¹

Who’s Gaining and Who’s Losing What?

Territorial Control (figures as of July 1, 2025)

Report Card*

Change in Russia’s control of Ukrainian territory and changes in Ukraine’s control of Russian territory

(Based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.)

• Since Feb. 24, 2022:
  • Russia: +27,838 square miles. 12% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to half the size of the U.S. state of New York).²
• Total area of all Ukrainian territory Russia presently controls, including Crimea and parts of Donbas Russia had seized prior to the full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022:
  • Russia: +44,463 square miles. 19% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to the U.S. state of Ohio.)
• In past month (June 3–July 1, 2025): Russia gained 234 square miles. (Area about the equivalent of the U.S. territory of Guam). That represents a modest increase from the previous month’s (May 27–June 24, 2025) total of 216 square miles.³
• In past week: Russia gained 72 square miles (nearly 1 Martha’s Vineyard island)—double the previous week’s gain of 36 square miles. In Russia, Ukraine maintained a foothold of 5 square miles total across Russia’s Kursk and Belgorod regions, the same as the previous two weeks.

Russian net territorial control in Ukraine by month: February 2022–June 2025. (Based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.) 

Military casualties  

• Russia: More than 790,000 killed or injured, according to an April 2025 estimate by then-SACEUR Cavoli.⁴ 48,000 missing.⁵
• Ukraine: 400,000 killed or injured, according to a January 2025 estimate by Zelenskyy.⁶ 35,000 missing.

Civilian fatalities

• Russia: 652 killed.⁷
• Ukraine: 13,438  killed.

Military vehicles and equipment⁸

• Russia: 22,250 lost.
  • Tanks and armored vehicles: 13,019.  
  • Aircraft: 332.⁹
  • Naval vessels: 22.¹⁰
• Ukraine: 9,274 lost.
  • Tanks and armored vehicles: 4,747.
  • Aircraft: 188.¹¹
  • Naval vessels: 35.¹²

Russian aerial attacks and Ukrainian interceptions¹³
In June:

• Russia launched
  • 3,510 drones
  • 22 ballistic missiles
  • 129 cruise missiles
• Ukraine intercepted
  • 1,809 drones
  • 6 ballistic missiles
  • 99 cruise missiles

Since September 2022:

• Russia launched
  • 37,355 drones
  • 491 ballistic missiles
  • 3,717 cruise missiles
• Ukraine intercepted
  • 23,444 drones
  • 83 ballistic missiles
  • 2,594 cruise missiles

Citizens displaced

• Russia:
  • 800,000 left Russia for economic or political reasons, 0.6% of Russian population.
  • 112,000 were displaced in Russia’s Kursk region during Ukraine’s incursion, which was launched in August 2024. Many of them reportedly remained unable to return to their homes as of June 2025.
• Ukraine: 9.4 million displaced Ukrainians, 21% of Ukraine’s pre-invasion population of 44 million, including:
  • Internally displaced: 3.8 million as of April 2025.
  • International refugees: 5.6 million, including 5 million in Europe, as of May 2025.

Economic impact¹⁴

• Russia’s economic growth: 5.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)
  • 1.5% GDP growth forecast for 2025.
  • Budget deficit in 2024: 1.7%  of GDP.
  • Russian ruble: 0.01274 U.S. dollars. 7% since the invasion.
  • 3-year bond yield: 14.4%.
• Ukraine’s economic growth (negative): -22.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)
  • 2% GDP growth forecast for 2025.
  • Budget deficit in 2024: 20.4% of GDP, excluding grants.
  • Ukrainian hryvnia: 0.02389 U.S. dollars. -27% since the invasion.
  • 3-year bond yield: 25.9%

Infrastructure

• Russia:  
  • A journalistic investigation estimated in March 2024 that Ukrainian strikes had rendered facilities which accounted for 1/6^th of the production of gasoline and diesel fuels in Russia non-operational.
  • A journalistic investigation estimated in March 2025 that Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s energy sector have caused at least 60 billion rubles ($714 million) in damage.
• Ukraine:  
  • Ukraine's extensive transmission infrastructure has suffered severe damage in the war, with capacity falling from 56 GW to an estimated 9 GW by the end of 2024.
  • Some 64%, or 36 out of Ukraine’s 25 GW electricity generating capacity destroyed or occupied as of 2024.
    • For a recent visualization of vulnerability of Ukraine’s power grid to Russian aggression, see this FT product, updated June 17, 2025.
  • Ukraine had lost 80% of its thermal capacity due to Russian attacks as of September 2024.
  • Ukraine relied for 2/3rds of its electricity generation on three functioning Soviet-era NPPs, which it still controls, as of 2024.

Popular support

• Russia: 64% support peace negotiations (record high-level in May 2025)
• Ukraine: 51% support peace negotiations (56% of Ukrainians would agree to a “compromise” to end the war)

Other criteria which may be even more important (about which we continue to search for reliable indicators):

• Ammunition supply
• Foreign military aid
• Force generation
• Military leadership
• Training
• Morale
• Control of strategic locations
• Information war: with U.S./Europe; with world.

Footnotes

1. Ukrainian forces were notably only able to shoot down one of the seven Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles and did not shoot down any of the four Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles during the June 28 to 29 strike series, according to ISW’s June 29, 2025 assessment. The U.S. said July 1 that it had stopped deliveries of some of the lethal aid to Ukraine to beef up Pentagon stocks, including interceptor missiles for Patriot systems, according to WSJ. This development occurred one week after Donald Trump said he would consider approving his presidency’s first delivery of interceptors for Patriot air defense systems, which remain Ukraine’s essentially sole reliable means of shooting down Russian ballistic missiles, to Kyiv.
2. According to Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group’s map, as of July 1, 2025, Russian forces occupied a total 113,673 square kilometers of Ukrainian land (43,889 square miles), which constituted 18.8% of Ukrainian territory.
3. In the preceding 30 days, Russian forces made a gain of 498 square kilometers (192 square miles), according to a July 1, 2025 estimate by The Economist.
4. Here are more estimates of Russian servicemen killed and wounded [in chronological order]:
   1. 600,000 killed or injured, according to Trump’s December 2024 estimate.
   2. 1,000,000 killed, according to Trump’s January 2025 estimate.
   3. More than 750,000 killed or injured, according to a March 2025 estimate by DNI/U.S. intelligence community.
   4. 900,000 killed or injured, according to the U.K. Defense Ministry’s March 2025 estimate.
   5. 950,000 killed or injured, according to CSIS’s June 2025 estimate, including 250,000 killed and 700,000 injured.
5. More than 100,000 Russian families have contacted Ukraine’s “Want to Find” project set to count number of Russian MIAs as of June 2025, according to Ukrainian media.
6. Here are more estimates of Ukrainian servicemen killed and wounded [in chronological order]:
   1. 400,000 killed or injured, according to Trump’s December 2024 estimate.
   2. 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and 370,000 wounded, according to Zelenskyy’s December 2024 estimate.
   3. 700,000 killed, according to Trump’s January 2025 estimate.
   4. More than 700,000, according to a May 2025 estimate by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency.
   5. 400,000 killed or injured, according to CSIS’s June 2025 estimate, including somewhere between 60,000 and 100,000 killed and 300,000-340,000 wounded.
      1. “Millions” killed in the war, according to Trump’s April 2025 estimate.
7. This estimate was given by Russia’s Investigative Committee in March 2025. In May 2025, this committee put the number of civilians killed and injured on Russian territories by Ukrainian fire since the beginning of the war at 620 and 3,271, respectively. According to Kursk region’s authorities’ June 19, 2025 estimate some 570 residents of this western Russian province, into which Ukraine staged an incursion, remain missing.
8. Oryx, “Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” Oryx (blog), https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html; “The Military Balance 2022,” IISS, https://www.iiss.org/publications/the-military-balance/the-military-balance-2022; Oryx, “List Of Aircraft Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html; Oryx, “List Of Naval Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-naval-losses-during-2022.html. According to a June 2025 study by CSIS, Russia has lost roughly 1,149 armored fighting vehicles, 3,098 infantry fighting vehicles, 300 self-propelled artillery, and 1,865 tanks since January 2024.
9. Oryx is not updating its estimates of aircraft losses as of June 24, 2025. In May 2025, Ukraine claimed to have shot down two Russian Su-30s by missiles launched from drone boats. On June 1, 2025 Ukraine destroyed an estimated total of 11 to 12 Russian strategic bombers. On June 7, 2025 Ukraine said  that its forces shot down a Russian Su-35 fighter jet over the Kursk region, according to MT. On June 27, 2025, Ukraine claimed to have struck four Su-34 aircraft in Russia’s Volgograd region.
10. Oryx is not updating losses of warships as of January 1, 2025. According to a May 2025 estimate by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, since the war’s start, Russia has lost at least 10,000 ground combat vehicles, including more than 3,000 tanks, as well as nearly 250 aircraft and helicopters and more than 10 naval vessels.
11. Oryx is not updating its estimates of aircraft losses as of June 24, 2025. Ukraine was reported to have lost 3 F-16s as of May 2025. On June 28, 2025 Ukraine admitted to losing a pilot and his F-16 jet.
12. Oryx is not updating losses of warships as of January 1, 2025.
13. Jensen, Benjamin and Yasir Atalan, “Russian Firepower Strike Tracker: Analyzing Missile Attacks in Ukraine,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, December 17, 2024, https://www.csis.org/programs/futures-lab/projects/russian-firepower-strike-tracker-analyzing-missile-attacks-ukraine?f%5B0%5D=content_type%3Aarticle&f%5B1%5D=content_type%3Areport. Note that due to limitations associated with refreshing of attack and intercept data, this section of the scorecard is updated once a month.
14. International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and Russian estimates. “Russia and Ukraine 3-Year Bond Yield,” Investing.com, https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/russia-3-year-bond-yield; World Bank Group, “Europe and Central Asia Economic Update,” https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/94bdc078-9c64-4833-992a-fda7b3d1a640/content; World Bank, “Russian Federation MPO,” https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/d5f32ef28464d01f195827b7e020a3e8-0500022021/related/mpo-rus.pdf; Trading Economics, “Russia 3-Year Bond Yield,”  https://tradingeconomics.com/ruge3y:gov ; World Bank, “The World Bank in Ukraine,” https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ukraine/overview#3; https://www.exchange-rates.org/exchange-rate-history/rub-usd-2024-11-01.

* This card was produced by RM staff and Belfer Center Avoiding Great Power War Project researcher Quinn Urich and research assistant Maryana Shnitser.