Russia in Review, July 3-July 12, 2024

7 Things to Know

  1. As widely expected, the past NATO summit did not offer Ukraine a timeline for admission into the alliance, sweetening the pill by describing Ukraine’s path toward it as “irreversible” and declaring that the decisions adopted by the summit and NATO-Ukraine council “constitute a bridge to Ukraine’s membership.” The alliance also launched the Ukraine Compact on July 11, which promises Ukraine that its signatories will “determine appropriate next steps in supporting Ukraine” if Russia attacks Ukraine, following the conclusion of current hostilities. While seeking to keep Ukraine at arms’ length with these declarations, NATO members did promise concrete actions to Kyiv, including the launch of a centralized command in Germany and the establishment of a training and analysis center in Poland. The allies also announced they had started transferring F-16 jets to Ukraine while Joe Biden also told Volodymyr Zelenskyy that Kyiv would be getting a new $225 million aid package from Washington, including a Patriot air and missile defense system.
  2. In the past month, Russian forces have gained 65 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces have re-gained 13 square miles in that period of time, according to the 07.09.24 issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. With the replenishment of Western-supplied arms, Ukraine has slowed Russia’s territorial advances in Donetsk in the east and halted a Russian counteroffensive near Kharkiv in the northeast, Western officials told NYT. Furthermore, U.S. officials believe Russia is unlikely to make significant territorial gains in Ukraine in the coming months as Ukrainian defenses are now reinforced with Western munitions, according to this U.S. newspaper.
  3. Russia’s Kh-101 air-to-surface missile, which Ukrainian officials, a UN monitor and Bellingcat blame for a deadly attack on Ukraine’s Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital in Kyiv, relies on Western-designed components, according to FT. Russia has denied targeting the hospital.
  4. The share of Russians who believe the “situation in Ukraine can escalate into an armed conflict between Russia and NATO” increased from 44% in January 2024 to 58% in June 2024, according to the Levada Center. Even more worryingly, the share of Russians who are very worried about “the threat of the use of nuclear weapons in the Ukraine conflict” increased from 71% in April 2023 to 73% in June 2024, according to this independent Russian pollster. The period of April 2023–June 2024 also saw the share of Russians who definitely believe or rather believe “the use of nuclear weapons by Russia in the course of the current conflict in Ukraine” would be justified, increase to more than one-third. 
  5. The past week has seen Hungary’s Viktor Orban embark on a series of meetings, which he said were meant to discuss potential options for negotiating peace between Russia and Ukraine. During that tour he visited Vladimir Putin in Moscow, Xi Jinping in Beijing and Donald Trump in Florida. But even before the first leg of Orban’s journey, Putin cooled down expectations by declaring at the SCO summit in Astana that a halt to fighting can only occur if Ukraine agrees to take “irreversible” steps demanded by Moscow. Putin didn’t specify what those would be, but he has recently conditioned ceasefire on Ukraine withdrawing fully from Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and giving up its bid to join NATO, among other things. Upon meeting Putin on July 5 Orban then flew to China to hear Xi tell him that “a ceasefire can only be realized soon if all major powers exert a positive rather than negative influence.” Following his meetings in Moscow and Beijing, Orban told the EU that Russian and Chinese leaders expect Ukrainian peace talks by the end of 2024, according to El Pais. He then met with Trump, promising him to “fix this problem,” according to BNE. Putin also discussed Ukraine in a separate meeting on July 9 with India’s Shri Narendra Modi, thanking the latter for “trying” to find ways to resolve the conflict. Modi said their lengthy discussion yielded “several ideas” that left him “hopeful” of a way forward, without providing further details, according to Bloomberg.
  6. NATO’s Washington Summit Declaration said: “The PRC has become a decisive enabler of Russia’s war against Ukraine through its so-called “no limits[1]” partnership and its large-scale support for Russia’s defense industrial base” in what NYT described as the first time the alliance accused China of supplying Russia’s attacks on Ukraine. “We call on the PRC... to cease all material and political support to Russia’s war effort. This includes the transfer of dual-use materials, such as weapons components, equipment, and raw materials that serve as inputs for Russia’s defense sector,” the July 10 declaration said. “The PRC cannot enable the largest war in Europe in recent history without this negatively impacting its interests and reputation,” the declaration’s signatories warned. In response, China has rejected NATO’s accusations, attacked the alliance for smearing the country and demanded the transatlantic alliance stay out of Asia, FT reported.
  7. Putin hosted Shri Narendra Modi for the 22nd India-Russia summit on July 8-9 to sign a declaration,committing to “strengthening and deepening of the Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership;” “working together to promote bilateral settlement system using national currencies,” agreeing to “set the bilateral trade target of USD 100 billion by 2030,” cooperating in “peaceful uses of nuclear energy” and highlighting “the imperative of peaceful resolution of the conflict around Ukraine.” Putin is meeting a lot of world leaders for a global ‘outcast,’ according to Bloomberg. In just two months since he began his fifth presidential term in May, Putin has held more than 20 meetings with leaders from Europe, Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East. Putin has also made six foreign visits.

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

  • The U.N. General Assembly resolution “demands that the Russian Federation urgently withdraw its military and other unauthorized personnel from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and immediately return the plant to the full control of the sovereign and competent authorities of Ukraine.” It also “calls upon the Russian Federation, until it returns the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant of Ukraine to the full control of the sovereign and competent authorities of Ukraine, to provide the International Atomic Energy Agency Support and Assistance Mission to Zaporizhzhia with timely and full access to all areas at the plant that are important for nuclear safety and security. (WNN, 07.12.24)
  • The scramble to find around-the-clock clean power coupled with new U.S. limitations on Russian uranium products is ushering in a “whole new era” for the nuclear fuel market. Spot prices for uranium are up 50% in the past year, averaging $84 per pound last month and surpassing $100 per pound earlier this year, as demand continues to outstrip supply, according to UxC, a data analytics company. A new U.S. ban on uranium from Russia, a top-three import market, will also further tighten supply for its utilities. (FT, 07.11.24)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

  • NATO’s July 10 Washington Summit Declaration said: “The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) and Iran are fueling Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine by providing direct military support to Russia, such as munitions and uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs), which seriously impacts Euro-Atlantic security and undermines the global non-proliferation regime. (NATO.int, 07.10.24)

Iran and its nuclear program:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated Iran's reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian on his victory in a presidential runoff, the Kremlin said on July 6. (MT/AFP 07.06.24)
  • Putin met Mohammad Mokhber, the interim president of Iran, on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in the Kazakh capital, Astana, on July 4. (RFE/RL, 07.05.24)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

  • On July 8, Russia carried out multiple strikes on targets in Ukraine, hitting in an assault that left some 40 people dead and more than 100 injured, according to Ukrainian officials.  Danielle Bell, head of the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine and Bellingcat said it was highly likely that it was a Russian missile that hit the hospital, injuring  32 people, including eight children, and killing two. Russia denied targeting the hospital. (Bloomberg, 07.09.24, WSJ, 08.09.24, AFP, 07.09.24, Bellingcat, 07.09.24, CNN, 07.10.24) For the military details of the July 8 strike, see the Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict section below.
    • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was requesting a meeting of the U.N. Security Council and vowed retaliation after the attack. (RFE/RL, 07.08.24)
    • Ukraine's top prosecutor, Andriy Kostin, has called for the International Criminal Court (ICC) to prosecute Russia over the missile strike. (RFE/RL, 07.12.24)
    • Before the strike on the Ohmatdyt Children’s Hospital in Kyiv, the W.H.O. documented 18 deaths and 81 injuries from more than 175 attacks on healthcare infrastructure in Ukraine for the first half of 2024. The organization also recorded 44 attacks on medical vehicles in that period. In all of 2023, the organization tallied 22 deaths and 117 injuries from 350 such attacks, and 45 more specifically on medical vehicles like ambulances. Other organizations put the death toll even higher. (NYT, 07.09.24)
  • As of the morning of July 12, 2024, as a result of the armed aggression of the Russian Federation, 561 children died and more than 1,456 were injured, according to estimates released by of the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine. (Korrespondent.net, 07.12.24)
  • NATO’s July 10 Washington Summit Declaration said: “Russia bears sole responsibility for its war of aggression against Ukraine, a blatant violation of international law, including the U.N. Charter. There can be no impunity for Russian forces’ and officials’ abuses and violations of human rights, war crimes, and other violations of international law. Russia is responsible for the deaths of thousands of civilians and has caused extensive damage to civilian infrastructure.” (NATO.int, 07.10.24)
  • Members of the Chosen company, which is headed by an American and which fights on Ukraine’s side, have killed three surrendering Russians, NYT reported. A German medic of that company said he was so troubled that he confronted his commander, but others boasted about killings in a group chat, according to the NYT. (RM, 07.07.24)
  • Even as Ukrainians look toward one of the coldest and darkest winters in their history, authorities see a potential upside: Ukraine can now begin anew and create a cleaner, eco-friendly energy sector. The plan is to switch from large smoke-belching thermal power facilities — Ukraine has nine of those, which provide electricity to much of the country — to a mix of renewable energy like wind and solar, battery storage and biofuel installations. (WP, 07.05.24)

  • A court in Ukraine’s Russian-controlled Donetsk region on July 12 jailed a member of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine for “espionage” in a judgment condemned by the European security organization. (RFE/RL, 07.12.24)

  • For military strikes on civilian targets, see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

  • In the past month, Russian forces have gained 65 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces have re-gained 13 square miles in that period of time, according to the 07.09.24 issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (Belfer Russia-Ukraine War Task Force, 07.09.24)[2]
    • Russia is unlikely to make significant territorial gains in Ukraine in the coming months as its poorly trained forces struggle to break through Ukrainian defenses that are now reinforced with Western munitions, U.S. officials say. Through the spring and early summer, Russian troops tried to take territory outside the city of Kharkiv and renew a push in eastern Ukraine, to capitalize on their seizure of Avdiivka. Russia has suffered thousands of casualties in the drive while gaining little new territory. American officials acknowledge that Russia could make significant headway, if there is a big strategic shift, such as by expanding its military draft and training program. Their predictions would also be undermined if the U.S. policy toward Ukraine and Russia changed (NYT, 07.09.24)
    • With the replenishment, Ukraine has slowed Russia’s territorial advances in Donetsk in the east and halted a Russian counteroffensive near Kharkiv in the northeast, officials say. However, despite billions of dollars in additional weapons and security assistance that NATO announced this week, allied officials said Ukraine would not be ready to launch a dramatic counteroffensive or retake large swaths of territory from Russia until next year. Donations of missiles, combat vehicles, ammunition and air defenses from the U.S. and European countries will take weeks, if not months, to reach the front lines. A senior NATO official said the support would put Ukraine on a path toward being able to push back Russia next year. (NYT, 07.11.24)
  • On July 4, Ukrainian forces withdrew from parts of a long-fought eastern city, highlighting the challenge facing Kyiv’s troops as Russia intensifies its offensive and US military aid is slow to arrive. Russia’s army has been focused on the hilltop city of Chasiv Yar since capturing Avdiivka, an industrial city further south, in February. Moscow has deployed tens of thousands of troops around Chasiv Yar in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, which Putin has claimed to have annexed along with three other regions that are only under his army’s partial control. Ukrainian officials said holding part of Chasiv Yar “became impractical” (FT, 07.04.24)
  • On July 5, Multiple Russian attacks killed at least seven and wounded more than two dozen others in the eastern Donetsk region of Ukraine on July 5, officials said. Moscow has centered its firepower on the industrial region, which it claims to have annexed and has been partially controlled by Kremlin-backed forces since 2014. (MT/AFP, 07.06.24)
  • On July 5, Russian attacks killed four and wounded nearly two dozen others in the eastern Donetsk region of Ukraine, authorities said. (MT/AFP, 07.05.24)
  • On July 5, Five people were injured and a child was killed in a drone attack on the southwestern Russian region of Krasnodar, the local governor said/(MT/AFP, 07.05.24)
  • On July 6, Ukraine’s Air Force (PS ZSU) said it repelled another wave of drone attacks targeting 12 of its regions after a regional official said Moscow had launched guided bombs on the Donetsk region, killing at least five people and wounding several others. (RFE/RL, 07.06.24)
  • On July 6, Russia said its forces “liberated the village of Chigari” in the Donetsk region. (MT/AFP, 07.07.24)
  • On July 6, Russia’s Defense Ministry said its troops “liberated the village of Sokil,” around 30 kilometers (18 miles) northwest of Donetsk city, the capital of the region by the same name that Moscow claimed to have annexed in 2022. (MT/AFP, 07.06.24)
  • Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike against a Russian ammunition depot in Sergeevka, Voronezh Oblast, on the night of July 6 to 7. Ukrainian outlet Suspilne reported that its sources stated that the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) conducted the strike and reported that the ammunition depot contained surface-to-surface missiles, surface-to-air missiles, ammunition for tanks and artillery, and small arms rounds. (ISW, 07.07.24)
  • On July 7, the SBU struck “a large warehouse of ammunition” in the Voronezh region of southwest Russia overnight, said a person familiar with the matter. (Bloomberg, 07.07.24)
  • A state of emergency was declared on July 7 in parts of Russia's Voronezh region near the border with Ukraine following a suspected Ukrainian drone attack that set an ammunition depot on fire, regional authorities said. (RFE/RL, 07.07.24)
  • On July 8, Russia carried out multiple strikes on Ukraine, hitting Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital in Kyiv in an assault that left at least 33 people dead and more than 100 injured, according to Ukrainian officials. (WSJ, 08.09.24, AFP, 07.09.24)
    • Russia’s Kh-101 Russian missile that Ukrainian officials blame for destroying the hospital relies on Western-designed components, according to FT. (RM, 07.11.24)
    • The July 8 barrage involved a total of more than 40 missiles targeted toward at least five cities across Ukraine. The PS ZSU said missiles were intercepted (WSJ, 07.09.24, Bloomberg, 07.08.24)
    • PS ZSU Commander Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk stated that Russian forces conducted two rounds of combined missile strikes on July 8—first launching four Kh-101 cruise missiles from Saratov Oblast and two Iskander-M ballistic missiles from occupied Crimea and Kursk Oblast overnight on July 7 to 8, and then launching a second wave of missiles, including one Kh-47 Kinzhal aeroballistic missile, four Iskander-M ballistic missiles, one 3M22 Zircon cruise missile, 13 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 14 Kalibr cruise missiles, two Kh-22 cruise missiles, and three Kh-59/69 guided air missiles. (ISW, 07.08.24)
    • In a statement on social media on July 8, Russia’s Ministry of Defense denied purposefully hitting civilian targets in Ukraine. Video of the attack taken by a Kyiv resident and verified by the NYT showed a missile moving downward at high speed before striking the hospital. (NYT, 07.09.24)
  • On July 9, Russian forces destroyed 38 Ukrainian drones overnight in regions near the border, Moscow's Defense Ministry said July 9. (MT/AFP 07.09.24)
  • On July 10, Russian forces occupied Yevhenivka southwest of Ocheretyne, while on July 11, Russian forces advanced near Vozdvizhenka northwest of Ocheretyne in eastern Ukraine, Ukraine’s OSINT group Deep State reported. (RM, 07.12.24)
  • Around 120,000 Russian soldiers have been killed since the Ukraine war began in 2022, according to a joint investigation by independent media outlets Mediazona and Meduza published on July 5. This updated figure is an estimate based on Russia’s registry of inheritance cases. The report says the true toll likely lies between 106,000 and 140,000 deaths. (MT/AFP, 07.05.24)
  • Initially reluctant to recruit prisoners — a practice Russia has engaged in since the early days of its 2022 invasion — Ukraine has released thousands of convicted criminals for frontline deployment since May, according to justice minister Denys Maliuska. Some 2,872 prisoners had been released under the initiative from among 5,196 applicants, while 368 had been rejected for health reasons, Maliuska said. (FT, 07.11.24)
  • Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Economic Development Dmitry Natalukha estimates that up to 200 people of conscription age are trying to leave Ukraine every day, according to Nikolai Mitrokhin, contributor to Russia’s independent analytical portal, Republic.ru. Draft dodgers are not being stopped by either the price of “transportation” (it increased in six months from about 3-4 thousand to 10-12 thousand euros) or the active operations of the Ukrainian border guards, according to Mitrokhin. (RM, 07.12.24)
  • Ukraine says it has gone from having just six drone makers before the invasion to more than 200, capable of churning out a million drones a year. (FT, 07.08.24)
  • Russian electronic countermeasures have significantly reduced the precision of Excalibur artillery shells, GPS-guided missiles fired by HIMARS systems and the Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb munition. Some of the other Western precision weapons, provided more recently, continue to strike high-value Russian targets. U.S.-made ATACMS ballistic missiles and the Storm Shadow cruise missiles manufactured by Franco-British-Italian defense company MBDA have devastated several airfields. (WSJ, 07.09.24)
  • “More than two years into Putin’s war of choice, his losses are staggering: more than 350,000 Russian troops dead or wounded; nearly 1 million Russians, many of them young people, have left Russia because they no longer see a future in Russia,” U.S. President Joe Biden said at the NATO summit. (Whitehouse.gov, 07.09.24) Biden then repeated that estimate of Russian casualties at his 07.11.24 press conference.
  • The most recent data, published on July 5 by Mediazona and Meduza, two independent Russian media outlets, suggest that Russia’s death toll has crossed 100,000, with 106,000-140,000 dead by June 21. The Economist’s rough calculations, based on leaked documents from America’s defense department, suggest that probably around three to four Russian soldiers are wounded for everyone killed in battle. That would mean that between 462,000 and 728,000 Russian soldiers were out of action by mid-June—more than Russia’s estimated invading force in February 2022. (The Economist, 07.05.24)[3]
  • Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said on July 8 that it had prevented an attempt by Ukraine to hijack a missile-carrying strategic bomber. In the process, the FSB claimed it gained intelligence to help Russia’s military strike Ukrainian territory. (MT/AFP, 07.08.24)
  • The U.S. Justice Department on July 12 said ethnically motivated attacks were becoming a serious global threat and suggested the global community take them more seriously, a day after announcing the arrest of an 18-year-old New Jersey man, Andrew Takhistov of Brunswick, New Jersey,  who is accused of plotting to attack a U.S. electrical substation to advance his white-supremacist views. Authorities said they believe Takhistov was on his way to Ukraine to join the Russian Volunteer Corps. (RFE/RL, 07.12.24)

Military aid to Ukraine:

  • NATO’s July 10 Washington Summit Declaration said that “To help Ukraine defend itself today, and deter Russian aggression in the future, we have:
    • Decided to establish the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU) to coordinate the provision of military equipment and training for Ukraine by Allies and partners. 
    • Announced a Pledge of Long-Term Security Assistance for Ukraine. ... Allies intend to provide a minimum baseline funding of €40 billion within the next year.
    • Took forward the establishment of the NATO-Ukraine Joint Analysis, Training, and Education Centre (JATEC), 
    • Welcomed the Secretary General’s decision to appoint a NATO Senior Representative in Ukraine. (NATO.int, 07.10.24)[4]
      • NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg – who met Zelenskyy on July 11 - revealed the launch of NSATU in  Germany and JATEC in Poland. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said it will be the first time NATO has dedicated a command to helping a country join NATO. (RFE/RL, 07.11.24)
  • On July 10, NATO allies announced that they had started transferring F-16 jets to Ukraine. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the F-16 transfer “concentrates Vladimir Putin’s mind on the fact that he will not outlast Ukraine, he will not outlast us.” The first F-16 fighter jets will be flying as part of its air force this summer, Blinken has said. Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Bekelmans said his country and NATO allies were “working hard to open a European training center in Romania” to prepare Ukrainian pilots to fly the F-16s. Norway on July 10 said it would begin providing the six F-16s it has pledged to Ukraine “in 2024.”  (MT/AFP, 07.11.24, (FT, 07.11.24)
    • The move to send F-16s to Ukraine has been bedeviled by delays, questions around spare parts, and a language barrier between Ukrainian pilots and their foreign trainers, according to people familiar with the matter. The result is that Ukraine may be able to field a squadron of F-16s, anything from 15 to 24 jets, well short of the 300 its leaders have called for, according to one of the people. Another said Kyiv expects to get six F-16s this summer and up to 20 by the end of the year. (Bloomberg, 07.12.24)
  • On July 11, Biden met Zelenskyy  and announced a new $225 million aid package for Ukraine, including a Patriot missile system to bolster its air defenses against a deadly onslaught of Russian airstrikes. (AP, 07.11.24)
    • According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, which tracks overall international support to Ukraine, the U.S. gave Ukraine $80 billion (74 billion euros) between January 2022 and the end of April 2024. Europe gave $110 billion (102 billion euros), including long-range missiles, the high mobility artillery rocket system, armored fighting vehicles, air defense systems and munitions. (Jack Sullivan’s op-ed in NYT, 07.10.24)
  • Zelenskyy met with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Warsaw to sign a long-term security agreement as part of Poland’s support for the war-torn nation. The two sides will discuss defense cooperation, Warsaw’s support for Ukraine’s European integration and the NATO summit in Washington, Zelenskyy’s office said in a statement on Telegram. (Bloomberg, 07.08.24)
  • Britain’s newly appointed Labour Party defense secretary, John Healey, traveled to the southern Ukrainian port city of Odesa on July 7 for his first official foreign journey, vowing his country’s continued support for Kyiv. Britain's new Labour government will make supporting Ukraine’s war against Russia a top international priority, Healey said (RFE/RL, 07.07.24, WP, 07.12.24)
  • The EU’s capacity to produce 155 mm artillery ammunition may be less than half as large as public estimates by senior EU officials indicate, affecting the bloc's ability to keep promises about supplies to Ukraine, Schemes and its partners in a journalistic investigation have found. (RFE/RL, 07.08.24)
  • An initiative to deliver a million drones to Ukraine by next February is moving ahead as contributions from allies pile up, Latvia’s defense chief said. Defense Minister Andris Spruds said on July 11 the effort spearheaded by the Baltic nation and the U.K. has secured commitments from a “number of countries” amounting to more than €550 million ($598 million). (Bloomberg, 07.11.24)
  • Saudi Arabia privately hinted earlier this year it might sell some European debt holdings if the Group of Seven decided to seize almost $300 billion of Russia’s frozen assets, people familiar with the matter said. The kingdom’s finance ministry told some G-7 counterparts of its opposition to the idea, which was meant to support Ukraine, with one person describing it as a veiled threat. The Saudis specifically mentioned debt issued by the French treasury, two of the people said. (Bloomberg, 07.09.24)
  • Switzerland will allow four Russian media outlets to continue broadcasting even after they were banned by the EU. The government on July 9 announced an advertising ban on Voice of Europe, RIA Novosti, Izvestia, and Rossiyskaya Gazeta, which were prohibited by the EU in May but didn’t stop their transmission in Switzerland. (Bloomberg, 07.09.24)
  • Finland’s parliament voted in favor of a law that allows the Nordic country to push back migrants that Russia sends to its border as part of Moscow’s hybrid warfare. (Bloomberg, 07.12.24)
  • Ukraine has seized a cargo vessel that it claims has ferried “looted agricultural products” procured from its Russian-occupied territories, the first such action since Moscow’s invasion in 2022. (Bloomberg, 07.12.24)
  • Tajik-Russian citizen Salimdzhon Nasriddinov and Russian-Canadian citizen Nikolai Goltsev on July 9 pleaded guilty to illegally exporting millions of dollars worth of U.S. electronics to be used in Russian weapons in Ukraine, the U.S. Justice Department said in a statement. (RFE/RL, 07.11.24)
  • The Central Securities Depository (CSD) of Kazakhstan said on July 11 that it had ordered brokers and management companies to divest Russian securities from their holdings by August 1. The CSD's press service said the move was necessary to adhere to U.S. sanctions imposed on the Moscow Stock Exchange (MSE) and its structures. (RFE/RL, 07.11.24)
  • LetterOne, the Russian oligarch-backed investment group, has urged governments to be open to reviewing their sanctions policy to reduce negative economic effects after it revealed a fall in the value of its net assets. In an annual review of its business, whose portfolio includes U.K. health food chain Holland & Barrett and a stake in telecommunications group Veon, the group admitted that the sanctions placed on Russian billionaires Mikhail Fridman and Petr Aven continued “to limit our ability to invest in businesses and support jobs.” (FT, 07.09.24)
  • For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.
  • On July 4, Putin said in Astana that Russia won’t declare a halt to fighting before Ukraine agrees to take “irreversible” steps demanded by Moscow, without specifying what those would be. “A cease-fire without reaching such agreements is impossible,” he said. Putin said Russia takes seriously statements by Donald Trump that he has proposals to end the war in Ukraine quickly. “I’m not familiar with his possible proposals on how he intends to do this, and that is, of course, the key question,” Putin told a news conference on July 4 in Astana. “But I have no doubt that he says this sincerely, and we will support it.”  (Bloomberg, 07.04.24)
  • Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban met with Putin at the Kremlin in Moscow on July 5 as part of what the Hungarian leader describes as a “peace mission” before traveling to China to meet Xi and then to Florida to meet Donald Trump on July 11 (RFE/RL, 07.05.24, RM, 07.12.24)
    • Putin made reference to Orban’s Kyiv visit, saying he would be keen to inform the Hungarian leader of the “nuances” of the conflict.  Putin said he set out Russia’s position on a possible settlement in a speech to the Russian Foreign Ministry last month, in which he demanded Kyiv withdraw its forces from four regions partially occupied by his troops and abandon its goal of joining NATO. Putin then used the meeting to oppose a negotiated ceasefire altogether and expressed his commitment to pursuing a "final" end to the war that would achieve his goal of destroying Ukrainian statehood. . (ISN, 07.05.24, Bloomberg, 07.05.24) 
    • The Hungarian leader, who took over the EU’s six-month rotating presidency on July 1, said ahead of the meeting that he had no intention of speaking for the 27-member bloc. “We are slowly running out of countries that can talk to both sides of the conflict,” Orban said. “Soon Hungary will be the only country in Europe that can talk to everyone.” (FT, 07.05.24, ISW, 07.05.24,  Bloomberg, 07.05.24) 
    • In a letter to European Council President Charles Michel dated July 5, Orban said, based on his talks with Putin, he believes there is now a “greater chance for a positive reception on all possible proposals for a cease-fire and for a road map to peace talks.” (RFE/RL, 07.09.24)
    • EU officials, the U.S. and NATO blasted the Hungarian Prime Minister’s surprise trip. Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico offered a rare voice of support, saying he would have joined Orban had his health permitted after surviving an assassination attempt in May. (MT/AFP, 07.06.24)
      • Hungary abruptly told Germany’s foreign minister that she wasn’t welcome after her boss, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, excoriated Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban over his unannounced trip to Moscow. (Bloomberg, 07.06.24)
    • Viktor Orban’s diplomatic freelancing with Putin on his solo trip to Moscow last week contravened the EU’s treaties, according to the bloc’s legal service. (FT, 07.11.24)
    • During Orban’s July 8 visit to China, Xi repeated his call for a cease-fire in Ukraine. Xi said the priority now should be a “deescalation as quickly as possible,” according to a post on X by a spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry in Beijing, echoing comments his nation has made since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. Xi commended Orban’s efforts and called on world powers to support Russia and Ukraine resuming direct dialogue. “A ceasefire can only be realized soon if all major powers exert a positive rather than negative influence,” Xi said. (FT, 07.09.24)
      • Orban lauded China, according to Hungary’s state-run MTI news outlet, crediting it with “firmness and stability.” “China not only loves peace but has also put forward a series of constructive and important initiatives,” Orban told Xi. (Bloomberg, 07.08.24)
    • Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban met with Trump in the U.S. on July 11 to discuss a peace deal in Ukraine, and said he would “fix this problem.” Trump, expressing gratitude, emphasized the urgency of peace. “Thank you, Viktor. There must be PEACE, and as soon as possible. Too many people have died in a war that should never have started!” Trump wrote on TruthSocial. (BNE, 07.12.24)
      • “The U.S. position, the Biden administration position is: Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine. So whatever adventurism is being undertaken without Ukrainians’ consent or support is not something that's consistent with our policy or the policy of the United States,” Biden’s national-security adviser, Jake Sullivan, told reporters July 11. (RFE/RL, 07.12.24)
  • Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban told the EU that Russian and Chinese leaders expect Ukrainian peace talks by the end of 2024, the Spanish daily El Pais reported July 10, citing his confidential reports filed after visiting the countries. (MT, 07.10.24)
  • Zelenskyy said on July 8 that Orban could not mediate between Russia and Ukraine to end Moscow’s full-scale invasion as the Hungarian prime minister traveled to Beijing on a continuation of what he calls “peace mission 3.0.” Speaking at a news conference in Poland, Zelenskyy said only powerful countries with armed forces much stronger than Russia’s could manage to arrange peace talks. “Are there many such countries around the world? Not many. I believe the U.S., and China are such countries. And the EU, not one country, but the whole EU. This could really be an intermediary mission,” Zelenskyy said. (RFE/RL, 07.09.24)

  • Kyiv wants to convene a second meeting to achieve a fair peace settlement in Ukraine before the U.S. elections in November, this time with Russia attending, according to people familiar with the matter. Ukraine has said it could invite Moscow to the next peace summit if it was prepared to consider Ukraine’s roadmap to peace and stop issuing ultimatums, but Russia will not attend a second planned international summit on peace in Ukraine because it will ignore Moscow’s proposals. RF Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin said that the first summit attended by more than 90 countries in Switzerland last month had “failed.” “We’re aware of the intentions of the Kyiv regime and its Western curators to ‘rehabilitate’ themselves for the failed ’peace summit’… and try to hold a similar event [and] invite Russia,” Galuzin told RIA Novosti. (MT/AFP, 07.11.24, Bloomberg, 07.11.24)

  • Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev reaffirmed that Russia would not accept or uphold any negotiated peace settlements with Kyiv short of Ukrainian capitulation, the destruction of the entire Ukrainian state, and the full occupation of Ukraine. Medvedev stated on July 10 that even if Kyiv agrees to Putin’s most recent conditions for peace — namely recognizing Russia’s territorial claims over eastern and southern Ukraine, including territory that Russia does not currently occupy, and pledging not to join NATO — and signs documents resulting in Ukrainian surrender, these actions will not constitute the “end of the Russian military operation” in Ukraine (ISW, 07.10.24)
  • Some American officials say that even without formally winning back its land, Ukraine could still emerge a victor in the war by moving closer to NATO and Europe. But officials say demanding that negotiations begin now would be a mistake. (NYT, 07.09.24)
  • The all-Russian survey by the Levada Center, which was conducted from June 20 to June 27, 2024, revealed that a record high of 58% of Russians favor peace negotiations over continuation of war against/in Ukraine. (RM, 07.05.24) The devil is in details, however, which this poll doesn’t ask its respondents about (e.g. what should be key clauses of a peace agreement produced by such negotiations? - RussianField asked about that and responses were mostly outside of the ZOPA.
  • A recent poll by Russian Field revealed that one-third of Russians believe the Ukraine-Russia peace deal should include territorial concessions by Ukraine while another 3% want Ukraine to either surrender and/or become part of Russia. The Russian Field’s May-June 2024 poll revealed that advocates of peace talks (“doves”) account for almost half (49%) of respondents. Another 25% told this pollster that they would support peace talks if Putin came up with some sort of a peaceful solution to the conflict (“loyalists”), while 17% would not support peace talks even if Putin did come up with such a solution (“hawks”), according to the Russian Field poll conducted in May-June 2024. (RM, 07.11.24)
  • Last week saw a supposedly new Russian peace proposal unveiled, according to Nikolai Mitrokhin, contributor to Russia’s independent analytical portal, Republic.ru. The so-called “Kolokoltsev plan,” which is named after Russia’s Interior Minister Kolokoltsev, provides for Ukraine to accept the loss of the Donbas, joint control over Crimea and return of Kherson and Zaporizhiye regions’ Russian-occupied parts to Kyiv’s control. It also provides for deep cuts in the Ukrainian army, Ukraine’s commitment not to seek membership NATO while allowing it to pursue membership in EU, according to Mitrokhin. (RM, 07.12.24)
  • For discussions between Putin and Modi on potential peace negotiations, see the section on Russia’s external policies below.

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

  • NATO’s July 10 Washington Summit Declaration said: “Ukraine’s future is in NATO. Ukraine has become increasingly interoperable and politically integrated with the Alliance.  We welcome the concrete progress Ukraine has made since the Vilnius Summit on its required democratic, economic, and security reforms. ... We will continue to support it on its irreversible path to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including NATO membership. We reaffirm that we will be in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the Alliance when Allies agree and conditions are met. … The Summit decisions by NATO and the NATO-Ukraine Council, combined with Allies’ ongoing work, constitute a bridge to Ukraine’s membership in NATO.” (NATO.int, 07.10.24)
    • President Biden supports a plan from NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg to announce that Ukraine will not have to complete a "membership action plan" (MAP) to join the alliance, two sources familiar with the discussions tell Axios. (Axios, 07.10.24)
    • Ukraine may have inched closer to NATO at the military alliance’s summit in Washington this week, but in reality, the military alliance continues to keep Ukraine at arm’s length and consequential U.S. elections are just around the corner. (RFE/RL, 07.12.24)
    • In practical terms, using this word [irreversible] “changes nothing, as NATO will not move ahead with an invitation to Kyiv until the war in Ukraine is over,” said Jamie Shea, a former NATO deputy assistant secretary-general for emergency security challenges. At the same time, it's unclear how many of the latest initiatives will be sustainable, especially in the event Trump is returned to office. (Japan Times, 07.12.24)
  • NATO’s July 10 Washington Summit Declaration said: “Russia seeks to fundamentally reconfigure the Euro-Atlantic security architecture. The all-domain threat Russia poses to NATO will persist into the long term. Russia is rebuilding and expanding its military capabilities and continues its airspace violations and provocative activities. We stand in solidarity with all Allies affected by these actions. NATO does not seek confrontation and poses no threat to Russia. We remain willing to maintain channels of communication with Moscow to mitigate risk and prevent escalation.” (NATO.int, 07.10.24)
  • NATO’s July 10 Washington Summit Declaration said: “Russia has also intensified its aggressive hybrid actions against Allies, including through proxies, in a campaign across the Euro-Atlantic area. ... Russia’s behavior will not deter Allies’ resolve and support to Ukraine.” (NATO.int, 07.10.24)
    • US intelligence discovered earlier this year that the Russian government planned to assassinate the chief executive of German arms manufacturer Rheinmetal, which has been producing artillery shells and military vehicles for Ukraine, according to five US and Western officials familiar with the episode. The plot was one of a series of Russian plans to assassinate defense industry executives across Europe who were supporting Ukraine’s war effort, these sources said. The plan to kill Armin Papperger, who has led the German manufacturing charge in support of Kyiv, was the most mature. When the Americans learned of the effort, they informed Germany, whose security services were then able to protect Papperger and foil the plot. A high-level German government official confirmed that Berlin was warned about the plot by the US.  (CNN, 07.11.24)
      • Europe has been grappling with a rapid increase in Moscow-led sabotage attacks or plots as Russia turns its focus to increasing the cost of Western support for Ukraine. “Russia is fighting the West in the West, on Western territory,” said a senior NATO official who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive material. “Our focus is really sharpening on this.” While operating through social media presents a greater risk of detection, Moscow seems willing to cast an indiscriminate net in its search for allies. (WP, 07.11.24)
    • NATO diplomats confirm report of Russian plot to assassinate Papperger. (FT, 07.12.24)
    • The Kremlin has denied Russia plotted to assassinate the head of Europe’s largest ammunition manufacturer over his support for Ukraine. (FT, 07.12.24)
  • On July 11, U.S. launched the Ukraine compact with 32 allies and partners. Among other things, the compact states: “In the event of future Russian armed attack against Ukraine following the conclusion of current hostilities, convene swiftly and collectively at the most senior levels to determine appropriate next steps in supporting Ukraine as it exercises its right of self-defense as enshrined in Article 51 of the UN Charter, including the provision of swift and sustained security assistance and the imposition of economic and other costs on Russia.”[5]
  • “We can — and will — defend every inch of NATO territory and we'll do it together,” Biden told the North Atlantic Council. (MT/AFP, 07.11.24)[6]
  • While NATO’s main mission is to deter any adversary from attacking, if called on, the 32 nations are ready to defend every inch of alliance territory, said Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli, supreme allied commander, Europe, and commander of U.S. European Command. Cavoli said when Russia stormed into Ukraine, there were four NATO battle groups in Eastern Europe. There are now eight. He said hundreds of thousands of troops are now operating on higher alert. “As we look in Ukraine, we’ve put an increased emphasis on stockpiles and munitions and supplies on hand,” the general said. (Defense.gov, Stripes.com, 07.10.24)
  • The NATO chief said that Donald Trump's biggest complaint -- that of allies' failure to meet defense spending targets -- has been significantly addressed, with 23 members now spending 2% or more of GDP. Just 9 members were at the target when Trump left office. (RFE/RL, 07.12.24)
    • Donald Trump was going to pull out of NATO. As the president’s motorcade powered through the early morning light of July 12, 2018, bound for a summit of the western military alliance, he called his national security adviser. “We’re being treated unfairly,” Trump said. “By January 1, all nations must commit to [increasing defense spending] . . . or we will walk out and not defend those who haven’t.” (FT, 07.05.24)
  • Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on July 9 cautioned NATO allies ahead of a leaders’ summit against taking steps that could drag the alliance into war in Ukraine against invading Russian forces. “While designing the steps to be taken to support Ukraine, we also maintain our principled stance not to make NATO a party to the war,” Erdogan said at the airport in Ankara before flying to Washington to join NATO leaders at a summit meeting. (Bloomberg, 07.09.24)
  • German defense minister Boris Pistorius has criticized his government for approving less than a fifth of the budget increase he said was needed by Germany’s military in stark remarks on the eve of a NATO summit in Washington. “I got a lot less than I asked for. That’s annoying for me because it means I can’t initiate certain things at the speed that . . . the threat level requires,” Pistorius said, speaking from Alaska on July 8, where he was visiting German troops ahead of NATO’s three-day summit in Washington. (FT, 07.09.24)
  • Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov and U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin discussed lowering the risk of "possible escalation" in a telephone call, the Russian Defense Ministry said on July 12. The call, which was initiated by Moscow, came after Washington announced plans to deploy long-range missiles in Germany, a decision the Kremlin warned could spell a return to Cold War-style confrontation.  (RFE/RL, 07.12.24)
    • Russia is preparing military countermeasures in response to the plan to start American deployment of nonnuclear SM-6 missiles, Tomahawk cruise missiles and developmental hypersonic weapons in Germany in 2026. Without nerves, without emotions, we will develop a military response, first of all, to this new game,” the deputy minister, Sergei A. Ryabkov, told Interfax. In a separate comment published by the Russian Foreign Ministry, Mr. Ryabkov said that Moscow had anticipated the decision and that Russia had started preparing “compensating countermeasures” in advance. (NYT, 07.11.24)
    • Former US Deputy Secretary of State Rose Gottemoeller noted that that at the moment, the plan is for “sporadic deployment” of new American complexes in Germany, and not about permanent deployment. This, according to her, means, first of all, the use of weapons during exercises by NATO countries. She also said that the 2026 year for deployment is interesting because it is when New START expires and the NPT Review Conference Treaty takes place. (Kommersant, 07.11.24)
  • France, Germany, Italy and Poland plan to design and build long-range missiles as Europe steps up efforts to strengthen its military capabilities. (Bloomberg, 07.11.24)
  • The share of Russians who believe the “situation in Ukraine can escalate into an armed conflict between Russia and NATO” increased from 44% in January 2024 to 58% in June 2024, according to Levada (RM, 07.04.24)
  • Share of Russians who name the U.S. and U.K. among U.S.S.R.’s main allies in the Great Patriotic War (the latter is how Russians describe U.S.S.R.’s participation in that war in 1941-1945) has tangibly declined in the past nine years, but is still above 40%, according to Levada’s polls in May 2015 and June 2024 which allowed multiple answers. Levada’s June 2024 poll has also found that 88% of Russians consider Germany to have been the main adversary of the U.S.S.R. in that war, 33% consider Japan have been the main adversary in that war, and 28% consider Italy to have been the main adversary of U.S.S.R. in that war. Not all of the respondents of the May 2015 and June 2024 appear to know history well: the share of Russians who consider the U.S. to have been among the U.S.S.R.’s adversaries in that war tripled from 2% in May 2005 to 6% in June 2024. The same period of time saw the share of Russians who consider the UK to have been among the USSR’s adversaries in that war increase from 1% to 5%. (RM, 07.09.24)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

  • NATO’s July 10 Washington Summit Declaration said: “The PRC has become a decisive enabler of Russia’s war against Ukraine through its so-called “no limits” partnership and its large-scale support for Russia’s defense industrial base.  This increases the threat Russia poses to its neighbors and to Euro-Atlantic security.  We call on the PRC.... to cease all material and political support to Russia’s war effort.  This includes the transfer of dual-use materials, such as weapons components, equipment, and raw materials that serve as inputs for Russia’s defense sector. The PRC cannot enable the largest war in Europe in recent history without this negatively impacting its interests and reputation.” (NATO.int, 07.10.24)
    • President Joe Biden said European allies are prepared to cut investment to China if it keeps up its support for Russia, offering a warning after NATO accused Beijing of enabling the invasion of Ukraine. Biden reiterated that China was not directly supplying weapons to Putin’s forces but also underscored it wouldn’t benefit financially “if they are supplying Russia with information and capacity.” (Bloomberg, 07.12.24)
    • ''The declaration demonstrates that NATO allies now collectively understand this challenge and are calling on the PRC to cease this activity,'' Jake Sullivan, Mr. Biden's national security adviser, said. (NYT, 07.11.24.)
    • The intelligence evidence on the PRC’s assistance to Russia was provided to NATO countries by the Biden administration. (NYT, 07.11.24.)
    • China has accused NATO of smearing the country and demanded the transatlantic alliance stay out of Asia, as its military demonstrated growing clout with record numbers of air operations near Taiwan and naval drills near the Philippines. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said Beijing had lodged representations with NATO over the accusations, which he called “biased, slanderous, and provocative,” and dismissed the alliance as “a relic of the Cold War”. (FT, 07.11.24)
  • Putin laid out his proposal for a new Eurasian security architecture founded on Moscow’s deepening entente with Beijing to challenge the post-Cold War order in Europe dominated by the US and its allies. Russia’s goal is to ensure “indivisible security and development to replace the outdated Euro-centric and Euro-Atlantic models which gave unilateral advantages to individual countries,” Putin said at the SCO summit in Astana. (Bloomberg, 07.05.24)
  • Xi Jinping called on members of SCO to push back against US restrictions on high-tech exports and maintain supply chain stability. “Facing the risks of ‘small yard, high fence,’ we need to defend our rights to develop,” Xi told the SCO summit, referring to the US approach to limit China’s access to certain technologies. In the speech to the group founded by China and Russia, Xi urged officials from developing countries to join hands in promoting technological innovation, according to the state broadcaster CCTV. (Bloomberg, 07.05.24)
  • Turkey, a NATO member, wants to join SCO, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said after attending the SCO summit in Kazakhstan. (Bloomberg, 07.05.24)
  • China said on July 12 that it was conducting joint military drills with Russia along its southern coast. China's Defense Ministry said the two militaries had begun the exercises, called Joint Sea-2024, in "early July," and they would last until the middle of this month. The drills in the waters and airspace around Zhanjiang, a city in southern Guangdong province, are "to demonstrate the resolve and capabilities of the two sides in jointly addressing maritime security threats and preserving global and regional peace and stability," the ministry said. (MT/AFP 07.12.24)
  • Russian imports from China began to recover in June despite difficulties with foreign trade payments triggered by the U.S.’s threat of secondary sanctions and restrictions on Moscow’s main exchange. Chinese exports to Russia increased by almost 4% in June compared to the previous year after shrinking for three months in a row from March, according to data published on July 12 from China’s customs administration. Exports to Russia amounted to $9.9 billion, which is still below monthly volumes seen at the end of last year, and for the first six months of 2024 declined by around 1% compared to the same period of 2023, data show. (Bloomberg, 07.12.24)

Missile defense:

Nuclear arms/Space:

Counterterrorism:

  • “Terrorism, in all its forms and manifestations, is the most direct asymmetric threat to the security of our citizens and to international peace and prosperity.  The threats we face are global and interconnected,” NATO’s Washington Summit Declaration said. (NATO.int, 07.10.24)
  • Two men involved in a high-profile hostage crisis in the southwestern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don last month were sent to pretrial detention for at least two months, the unified press service of the courts in the Rostov region said on July 11. One of the men, Daniil Kamnevconfessed to being a member of the At-Takfir Wal-Hijra Islamic group, which is designated as a "terrorist" group and banned in Russia. A second suspect, Malik Gandaloyev, confessed to being a member of the Islamic State group. (RFE/RL, 07.11.24)
  • The Russian FSB said it allegedly “prevented an attack on an Orthodox church” in Adygea, which was being prepared by a native of Central Asia, “a member of an international terrorist organization,” reports the pro-government Russian news agency Interfax. (Korrespondent.net, 07.11.24)
  • Austrian media reported on July 11 that a native of Russia's North Caucasus region of Daghestan who was suspected of being a member of the Islamic State's Khorasan branch committed suicide hours before being deported to Russia. (RFE/RL, 07.12.24)

Conflict in Syria:

  • No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

  • Russia is carrying out a "shadow war" against European countries through cyberattacks, disinformation, sabotage, and other measures and it's time to recognize it and respond, according to European leaders attending the NATO Summit. (RFE/RL, 07.11.24)
  • NATO is helping finance a project aimed at finding ways to keep the internet running should subsea cables shuttling civilian and military communications across European waters come under attack. Researchers, who include academics from the US, Iceland, Sweden and Switzerland, say they want to develop a way to seamlessly reroute internet traffic from subsea cables to satellite systems in the event of sabotage, or a natural disaster. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s Science for Peace and Security Program has approved a grant of as much as €400,000 ($433,600) for the $2.5 million project, and research institutions are providing in-kind contributions, documents seen by Bloomberg show. (Bloomberg, 07.09.24)
  • Robots and other smart machinery will comprise up to one-third of the U.S. military in the next 10-15 years, retired Army Gen. Mark Milley, said. (Axios, 07.10.24)
  • Finnish authorities reported an increase in GPS "malfunctions" in the past week and that most disruptions to aviation and maritime GPS and radar originate from within Russia. (ISW, 07.11.24) 

Energy exports from CIS:

  • Officials in Biden’s Treasury Department have proposed new actions aimed at crippling a fleet of aging oil tankers that are helping deliver Russian oil to buyers around the world in defiance of Western sanctions. While Treasury officials want to knock Russian tankers out of commission, economic advisers inside the White House worry that would risk inflaming oil prices this summer and push up U.S. gasoline prices, which could hurt Biden’s re-election campaign. (NYT, 07.07.24)
  • Germany is nearing a decision on what to do with the local units of Russian oil major Rosneft PJSC that the government seized two years ago after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. The future of the assets will be determined soon, a government official familiar with the matter told reporters on July 8. The state-controlled Russian energy giant agreed with Germany earlier this year to try to find a buyer for its local subsidiaries, but a deadline to do so will expire in two months. (Bloomberg, 07.09.24)
  • The price of delivering Russia’s flagship Urals crude to customers in Asia from Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk has tumbled to the lowest since October, according to data from Argus Media Ltd. Even a theoretical cost — attributable only to sanctions — has sagged, the pricing agency estimates. It now costs $7.2 million to deliver a million-barrel Russian Urals oil cargo to north China from Novorrossiysk, down by $3.2 million since early April, Argus’s data show. (Bloomberg, 07.08.24)
  • Russia’s revenues from oil exports fell to the lowest since February amid slightly lower shipment volumes, according to the International Energy Agency. The nation earned $16.7 billion from oil exports in June, down 1.2% from the month before, the Paris-based agency said in its monthly report published July 11. Still, the nation’s oil-export earnings jumped nearly 23% from a year before. (Bloomberg, 07.11.24)
  • Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest crude oil exporter, saw overseas shipments slump to a 10-month low in June. One clue to one reason for the slump — competition from fellow OPEC+ member Russia. Exports of crude from the kingdom, estimated by Bloomberg using vessel tracking data and compared against figures compiled by other data providers, stood at about 168 million barrels last month — equivalent to about 5.6 million barrels a day. (Bloomberg, 07.05.24)

Climate change:

  • No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

  • No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

  • Russia’s Kommersant newspaper reported on July 4 that Anatoly Antonov, Russia's ambassador to the United States, has indicated that his assignment is ending soon amid a time of high tensions between Moscow and Washington. (RFE/RL, 07.04.24)
  • U.S. citizen Robert Woodland, who was born in Russia and adopted by American parents as a child, has been sentenced to more than 12 years in Russia on drug-trafficking charges, his lawyer said. (RFE/RL, 07.05.24)
  • The pro-Kremlin news site Gazeta.ru has reported that the Russian authorities are “planning to permanently block” YouTube in September, citing a source close to the Putin administration and a source in a company that collects data for law enforcement agencies.  The Russian authorities have already begun slowing down YouTube, a source from the telecommunications industry has told Meduza. (Meduza, 07.12.24)
  • At least two VPN services said on July 4 that Russian authorities have successfully forced Apple to delete their applications from its App Store in Russia. (MT/AFP 07.04.24)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

  • UBS’ Global Wealth Report 2024 estimated that the number of USD millionaires in Russia will increase from 382,000 to 461,000 in 2023-2028. The wealth growth in Russia totaled 58% in 2010-2023 at an annual compounded growth rate of 4%, according to the report. (USB, July 2024)
  • Russian tycoons received billions of dollars in dividends as their companies resumed or boosted payouts amid easing economic uncertainty over the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine. At least a dozen business people gained more than 1 trillion rubles ($11.3 billion) for 2023 and in the first quarter of this year, according to data on dividends compiled by Bloomberg from publicly disclosed information. Vagit Alekperov, key shareholder and former president of oil giant Lukoil PJSC, topped the list with about 186 billion rubles in dividends. He is sanctioned by the UK and Australia, but has so far avoided US and European Union penalties. (Bloomberg, 07.09.24)
  • Every second year, the UN releases a forecast of the world's population until 2100. The previous forecast was published in 2022, when Russia launched a full-scale war against Ukraine. Then, based on the situation in 2022, the UN predicted that the war would bring down the migration increase. However, in the third year of hostilities, the UN revived the pre-war forecast - about 300 thousand people per year.  (Istories, 07.12.24)
  • Election officials in Moscow have scrapped paper ballots in favor of online voting at an upcoming vote for the Russian capital’s legislative assembly at the Sept. 6-8 three-day election period. (MT/AFP 07.05.24)
  • Russia sentenced a playwright and a theater director to six years in prison on July 8 on charges of "justifying terrorism" over an award-winning play. Theater director Yevgenia Berkovich, 39, and playwright Svetlana Petriychuk, 44, were arrested in May 2023 and prosecuted behind closed doors in Moscow over a play they staged in 2020. (WP, 07.09.24)
  • The Moscow Times says that its labeling as an "undesirable organization" by Russia is just the "latest of many efforts to suppress our reporting on the truth in Russia and its war in Ukraine." However, the newspaper said it would not give in to pressure by the Russian authorities: "We refuse to be silenced." (RFE/RL, 07.11.24)
  • A Moscow court on July 11 rejected an appeal by jailed human rights defender Oleg Orlov against his imprisonment for criticizing the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine. Orlov, 71, was sentenced to 2.5 years in prison this year on charges of “discrediting” the Russian military. (MT/AFP 07.11.24)
  • Russia's financial watchdog, Rosfinmonitoring, on July 11 added Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of opposition leader and anti-corruption crusader Alexei Navalny, to its registry of "terrorists and extremists." Two days earlier, a Moscow court issued an arrest warrant for Navalnaya on a charge of taking part in an extremist group's activities. (RFE/RL, 07.11.24)
  • Exiled Russian opposition politician Leonid Gozman has been sentenced to 8.5 years in prison in absentia for criticizing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Moscow judicial press service said July 11. (MT/AFP 07.11.24)
  • Russia's Justice Ministry has added two more independent journalists -- Olesya Gerasimenko and Sergei Yezhov -- to its "foreign agent" list. Gerasimenko works for Verstka, an independent online news publication founded in April 2022 by a group of independent Russian journalists. (RFE/RL, 07.06.24)
  • The Kirov regional court in Russia on July 8 acquitted Nikita Belykh, the region's former governor and an opponent of Putin, in a new case against him on a charge of abuse of office. (RFE/RL, 07.08.24)
  • Russian student artist Tatyana Laletina has been sentenced to nine years in prison on treason charges for sending $30 to the Ukrainian army. (MT, 07.11.24)
  • Authorities in Russia’s North Caucasus republic of Dagestan are slowing access to WhatsApp over the platform’s refusal to curb the spread of “calls to participate in extremist actions,” the state news agency TASS reported July 8, citing an unidentified source. (MT/AFP 07.08.24)

Defense and aerospace:

  • Russian Vice Admiral Sergei Lipilin replaced Vice Admiral Vladimir Vorobyov as Russian Baltic Fleet Commander. (ISW, 07.08.24)
  • A Russian soldier opened fire at fellow servicemen in the Belgorod region that borders Ukraine before fleeing the site. Several Telegram channels reported that two soldiers were killed and one wounded in the incident. (RFE/RL, 07.12.24)
  •  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

  • Russia’s flagship Sukhoi Superjet 100 regional airliner crashed outside Moscow, killing all three pilots on board, state news agencies reported July 12. (MT/AFP 07.12.24)
  • Russian Colonel Artyom Gorodilov, who is under U.S. sanctions due to suspected involvement in war crimes in Ukraine, has been detained in Russia on allegations of conducting large-scale fraud, Russian media reported on July 4. (RFE/RL, 07.05.24)
  • Russian authorities have added a 14-year-old teen to its list of “terrorists and extremists,” independent media reported on July 5. Gleb Sinitsyn is the youngest defendant to appear on the state financial watchdog Rosfinmonitoring’s list, according to the news website Sota. (MT/AFP, 07.05.24)
  • Three EU citizens were detained this week for illegally entering the Russian-controlled Baikonur Cosmodrome in central Kazakhstan, local authorities said July 11. (MT/AFP, 07.11.24)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

  • Prime Minister of the Republic of India, Shri Narendra Modi, paid an official visit to the Russian Federation on July 8-9, 2024, at the invitation of Putin for the 22nd India – Russia Annual Summit. Joint Statement following the 22nd India-Russia Annual Summit said. (MFA of India, 07.09.24)
    • The Leaders noted the continued strengthening and deepening of the Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership between India and Russia.
    • The Leaders highly appreciated the special nature of this time-tested relationship which is based on trust, mutual understanding and strategic convergence.
    • The Sides underlined that India-Russia ties have remained resilient in the backdrop of the prevailing complex, challenging and uncertain geopolitical situation.
    • the Leaders agreed to set the bilateral trade target of USD 100 billion by 2030.
      • The energy and defense ties between Russia and India — the world's largest weapons buyer and the No. 3 importer of oil — have continued to thrive. Indian imports of Russian crude rose from $2.5 billion in 2021, before the invasion of Ukraine, to $46.5 billion in 2023, according to Indian Commerce Ministry data. Last year, only China purchased more Russian crude. (WP, 07.09.24)
    • The Sides agreed to continue working together to promote a bilateral settlement system using national currencies.
    • The Sides support cooperation in developing shipping between Russia and India via the Northern Sea Route... The Sides their readiness to intensify trade and investment cooperation in the Far East and the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation.
    • The Sides noted the continued special importance of bilateral trade in energy resources and agreed to explore new long-term contracts.
    • The Sides noted the importance of cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy.
      • On July 9, Putin led Modi on a tour of an exhibition by Russia's State Atomic Energy Corporation. Rosatom officials said this week that it is in talks to build six new nuclear power reactors in India — a fast-growing economy with soaring energy needs. (WP, 07.09.24)
    • Russia expressed its strong support for India’s membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group.
    • Responding to India’s quest for self-sufficiency, the partnership is reorienting presently to joint research and development, co-development and joint production of advanced defense technology and systems.
    • Both Sides called for comprehensive reform of the UNSC to reflect contemporary global realities and to make it more representative.
    • The Sides highlighted the imperative of a peaceful resolution of the conflict around Ukraine through dialogue and diplomacy including engagement between both parties. They noted with appreciation relevant proposals of mediation and good offices aimed at peaceful resolution of the conflict in accordance with international law and on the basis of the UN Charter.
      • Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi called on his “friend” Putin to seek a peaceful end to Russia’s war in Ukraine. “Resolution can’t be found on the battlefield, peace needs to be pursued through dialog and diplomacy.” “I know that war cannot solve problems, solutions and peace talks can't succeed among bombs, guns and bullets. And we need to find a way to peace through dialogue,” Modi told Putin in televised remarks at the Kremlin. Putin said they discussed the war during informal talks over dinner on July 8, and he thanked Modi for “trying” to find ways to resolve the conflict. Modi said their lengthy discussion yielded “several ideas” that left him “hopeful” of a way forward, without providing further details. (MT/AFP 07.09.24, Bloomberg, 07.09.24)
  • While in Moscow, Modi announced that India would open consulates in Kazan and Yekaterinburg to enhance ties between the two peoples. "India and Russia are walking shoulder and shoulder and infusing new energy into global prosperity," Modi said in his speech. "Any mention of Russia reminds every Indian of an ally that has been with us through good times and bad, as a trusted friend of India." (WP, 07.09.24)
  • NDTV television in India reported on July 9 that about 20 Indian nationals who are fighting with Russia's armed forces in Ukraine will return home soon. NDTV quoted sources as saying the issue was discussed at talks between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Putin during the ongoing visit by the Indian leader to Moscow. (RFE/RL, 07.09.24)
    • After Modi’s visit to Moscow, Russian authorities have begun paying compensation to the families of Indians who were recruited into the war in Ukraine and got killed there. (BBC, 07.12.24)
  • This week, there was broad concern within the Biden administration about the Putin-Modi meeting and its timing, the people said. The optics were "terrible," said one official. "Deeply inappropriate," said another. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller told reporters on July 8, "We have made quite clear directly with India our concerns about their relationship with Russia." (WSJ, 07.11.24)
  • The Kremlin on July 5 said it was "not optimistic at all" about any change in difficult relations between Britain and Russia following Labour's victory in the U.K. general election. (RFE/RL, 07.05.24)
    • While Labour has hinted at a more conciliatory tone than its Conservative predecessor in relations with the European Union, the party has gone to lengths to reassure NATO and other allies helping arm Kyiv that London will continue to regard Russia as a threat to Europe. (RFE/RL, 07.05.24)
  • Moscow does not “have any particular hope” for improved ties with Paris following France’s snap parliamentary election, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on July 8. “So far, we have not seen such a clearly expressed political will [to restore bilateral relations] from anyone,” Peskov said. July 7’s vote saw the leftist New Popular Front alliance gain the most seats, with RN falling to third place behind President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble alliance. No party secured an outright majority. (MT/AFP, 07.08.24)
  • Putin is meeting a lot of world leaders for a global ‘outcast.’ In just two months since he began his fifth presidential term in May, Putin has held more than 20 meetings with leaders from Europe, Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East. Putin has also made six foreign visits. (Bloomberg, 07.09.24)
  • Australian police have charged a married Russian-born couple with spying for Moscow, top officials said on July 12, accusing them of accessing national security-related material from the military. The 40-year-old woman, Kira Korolev, and her 62-year-old husband Igor — both holders of Russian passports — had lived in Australia for more than 10 years and obtained citizenship, the authorities said. (MT/AFP 07.12.24)
  • A court in the Russian capital ordered further pretrial detention on July 4 for a French researcher, Laurent Vinatier, arrested in June, who Russian investigators said a day before, pleaded guilty to illegally obtaining information about the Russian military. (RFE/RL, 07.05.24)
  • A Bosnian man arrested in connection with the audacious escape of Russian businessman Artyom Uss from Italian arrest has been released and is now cooperating with Italian investigators. Vladimir Jovancic, a national of Bosnia and Herzegovina, is one of eight people Italian authorities have charged in connection with the March 2023 escape of Russian businessman Artyom Uss. (RFE/RL, 07.05.24)

Ukraine:

  • If Ukraine does not agree on debt restructuring by August 1, it will face default. Ukraine’s international reserves fell by almost 3% in June. (Korrespondent.net, 07.12.24)
  • Valery Zaluzhny started working as ambassador to the UK. (Korrespondent.net, 07.12.24)
  • Former First Deputy Ukrainian Foreign Minister Emine Dzheppar (aka Dzhaparova) said on Facebook on July 11 that she filed papers asking Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba to relieve her from the post of full-time ambassador to international organizations in Vienna. She has been under media focus for months after she married a controversial tycoon, Hennadiy Boholyubov, who, according to the State Bureau of Investigations, used forged documents to flee Ukraine last month to avoid arrest on corruption charges. (RFE/RL, 07.12.24)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

  • Georgia was mentioned 13 days in the communique of NATO's 2023 summit. In the 2024 summit communique, it is mentioned only once in the context of restoring Georgia’s territorial integrity (RM, 07.11.24)

  • The Pentagon said it will "indefinitely postpone" its planned Noble Partner military exercise with Georgia as the United States reviews its relationship with the South Caucasus nation. (RFE/RL, 07.06.24)

  • Armenian-American military exercises will soon take place on the territory of Armenia. The Armenian Ministry of Defense reported this on July 6. (Korrespondent.net, 07.06.24)
  • NATO’s July 10 Washington Summit Declaration said: “Belarus continues to enable this war [in Ukraine] by making available its territory and infrastructure.”(NATO.int, 07.10.24)
  • Moldovan Foreign Minister Mihai Popsoi said it is encouraging to Moldova that the declaration issued at the NATO summit in Washington calls on Russia to withdraw all its forces from Moldova and also welcomes Moldova’s reform efforts. (RFE/RL, 07.12.24)
  • Chinese soldiers arrived in Belarus on July 6 for joint an “anti-terrorism training exercise,” Belarus’s Defense Ministry said on Telegram. It said the maneuvers will be held from July 8-19.  (RFE/RL, 07.07.24)
  • Chinese President Xi Jinping on July 5 promised to defend the "territorial integrity" of Tajikistan as he announced a boost to diplomatic relations with the neighboring country on a rare visit. Xi arrived in Dushanbe from Kazakhstan following a gathering of leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, during which he held talks with Putin and urged the bloc to "resist external interference." (RFE/RL, 07.06.24)

  • The Kazakh Defense Ministry said on July 8 that its armed forces, along with those from Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, had begun joint military maneuvers on the shores of the Caspian Sea in western Kazakhstan. (RFE/RL, 07.08.24)

  • A specialist website focused on naval activities around the world has shared an image it says shows a Russian Navy support ship docked at a Black Sea port in occupied Georgia where Moscow has vowed to establish a permanent naval base despite Tbilisi's objections. Naval News reported that the Russian Project 22870 craft shown in the satellite imagery it published on July 10 was "observed in Ochamchire on July 4 and 5." It did not cite a source. (RFE/RL, 07.11.24)
  • Poland hopes to bring in border guards and police from Finland, Germany, and Greece to help patrol its frontier with Belarus, a senior official said on July 4, amid mounting concerns over migration pressures from the east into Europe. (RFE/RL, 07.05.24)
  • Moldova, Romania, and Ukraine have signed a joint cooperation agreement to combat Russian disinformation. The agreement was signed during a trilateral meeting of the three countries' foreign ministers in Moldova's capital, Chisinau, on July 5. (RFE/RL, 07.06.24)
  • The leader of Moldova’s Socialist Party, Igor Dodon, announced on July 8 that he will not run in the presidential election later this year and threw his support behind former Prosecutor-General Alexandru Stoianoglo. (RFE/RL, 07.09.24)

Quotable and notable:

  • No significant developments.

 

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 11.00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.
 

[1] In fact, Chinese leaders have stopped publicly referring to “no limits” partnership with Russia in the wake of Russia’s reinvasion of Ukraine.

[2]Fiona Hill, senior fellow in Brookings’ Foreign Policy program, said at a recent panel that “Putin’s number one objective is to conquer territory,” a distinct shift from his priorities earlier in his tenure as Russia’s leader which were more focused on improving the overall prosperity of his country. (Brookings, 07.10.24)

[3]  Multiple open-source estimates of Russian war casualties have been reported in the media in spite of the Russian authorities’ efforts to suppress them, whereas reports of estimates of Ukrainian casualties have been less frequent. In fact, one can describe Ukrainian war casualties as one of the best-guarded secrets of Volodymyr Zelensky’s government. RM’s efforts to use certain methods used in some of the open-source estimates of Russian war casualties have stalled due to a lack of response to our inquiries to Ukrainian government agencies with regard to such data as excess mortality. One not-so-recent U.S. government estimate, presumably based on classified data, is that Russia and Ukraine each have suffered equal casualties (100,000 casualties each as of late 2022, according to then-chair of JSC Gen. Mark Milley. If readers of this digest have suggestions for attaining non-classified data that could be used to calculate and compare Russia’s and Ukraine’s casualties, please share those with us.

[4] For details of the pledge of assistance for Ukraine adopted as part of NATO’s July 10 Washington Summit Declaration, see NATO.int.

[5] The compact doesn’t require ratification. Thus, the next U.S. presidential administration won’t need the Congressional approvement to abandon it. For the Biden administration’s full description of the Ukraine compact, which the U.S. launched with 32 allies and partners, see this 07.11.24 statement.

[6]For the Biden administration’s description of U.S. contributions to NATO deterrence and defense, see this 07.11.24 statement.

[7] During the press conference Biden vowed to would remain in the 2024 presidential race, but two critical mistakes at this week's NATO summit in the span of two hours deepened concerns about his mental acuity that threaten his campaign. Biden mistakenly introduced Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as Russian President Vladimir Putin, and then fumbled a question about Vice President Kamala Harris by saying he "wouldn’t have picked Vice President Trump to be vice president” if he did not have confidence in her. (Bloomberg, 07.12.24)

 

Slider photo by Ukrainian President's website.

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