Russia in Review, June 7-14, 2024

7 Things to Know

  1. In the past month, Russian forces have gained 167 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces have re-gained 1 square mile, according to the June 11, 2024, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. Russian forces in Ukraine “have run a small offensive operation ... [with] limited penetrations,” but they “don't have the military capability to overrun Ukraine,” according to former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley, and “it is not likely that the Ukrainian military can militarily eject” the Russians. “From a military—purely military standpoint, you're at a military stand--a stalemate,” he said at the Futurist Summit on June 13. Milley is not alone in his assessment. Nearly half of Ukrainians believe the war with Russia is at a stalemate, according to a recent poll conducted by Rating for CEIP and reported by WP.
  2. The Russian and Belarussian militaries have continued their three-phase exercise to simulate preparing and using non-strategic nuclear weapons (NSNWs) this week. The exercise, the first phase of which took place in Russia’s Southern Military District, featured simulated launches of NSNWs from land, naval and air platforms, including those assigned to Russia’s Leningrad Military District, according to the Russian MoD’s Telegram channel. Judging by the Russian MoD’s data, the range of weapons in the simulation reached 400 km, covering the “military facilities of most European NATO members,” Russia’s Nezavisimaya Gazeta claimed. If the wargame were not enough to remind NATO of Russia’s nuclear strike potential, Putin issued yet another warning. “Calls to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, which has the largest arsenals of nuclear weapons, demonstrate the extreme adventurism of Western politicians,” Putin told the foreign ministry’s top brass on June 14. Three days prior to Putin’s speech, deputy head of the foreign ministry, Sergei Ryabkov, repeated his warning that Russia could revise its nuclear doctrine over NATO’s “unacceptable and escalatory actions.” More than half of Russians (57%) believe a new world war could break out in the coming years, while 36% believe that such a war is impossible, according to a June poll conducted by Russian Field. When asked if Russia’s use of nuclear weapons in the war against Ukraine would be acceptable, three-quarters of Russians said “No,” according to the poll.
  3. The initial idea of the Ukraine peace summit was to forge a unified proposal based on Kyiv’s 10-point “peace formula,” and then to present it to Moscow, but it has been diluted, according to The Economist. The expected communiqué of the June 15-16 event in Lucerne, Switzerland, will cover only three of the most uncontroversial points of the formula: food security, nuclear security and the return of prisoners and children, according to The Economist. There will be no formal resolutions on thornier issues like reparations or war tribunals, in an apparent dilution of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s peace formula, this U.K. newspaper reported. Some 160 heads of state, government leaders and international organizations have been invited to the event, which has been delayed five times, but only 78 will be attending, according to RFE/RLSpeaking one day ahead of the summit, Putin said he will agree to a peaceful resolution of the conflict with Ukraine if the latter withdraws from four eastern regions partially occupied by his forces; gives up its bid to join NATO; undergoes denazification and demilitarization; ensures the rights of Russian-speakers; and remains denuclearized. Putin’s conditions were quickly dismissed by top officials in Ukraine and the U.S.
  4. On June 13, 2024, Joe Biden and Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a 10-year U.S.-Ukraine Bilateral Security Agreement, pledging to work together to “build and maintain Ukraine’s credible defense and deterrence capability,” “accelerate Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration” and “achieve a just peace that respects Ukraine’s rights.” The agreement also promises that the signatories will consult in the event of a future Russian armed attack against Ukraine. However, the pact falls short of the mutual defense guarantee that Ukraine would be part of if it joined NATO, according to FT. Moreover, the agreement says it can be terminated with six months notice, meaning it could be in peril if Donald Trump “defeats Biden in the U.S. election in November,” according to this newspaper.
  5. G-7 leaders have reached a preliminary agreement to finance Ukraine with a loan of up to $50 billion, backed by the profits on frozen Russian assets, so that it can be spent to support Ukraine militarily; to help cover the country’s budgetary deficit; and to help with reconstruction of infrastructure, according to NYT. Key details of the financing arrangement still need to be agreed, however, and who will guarantee the loan is vague, according to NYT and WSJ. The Americans have said that they will put up the entire sum, but would like others to participate. They have also agreed to underwrite the entire loan, according to NYT. In a clear effort to maximize the perceived importance of the agreement even though its financial aspects are yet to be finalized, a senior Biden administration official described it as a “political agreement at the highest levels.”*
  6. Mustafa Nayyem, head of Ukraine’s State Agency for Restoration and Infrastructure Development, has resigned, claiming his agency was being systematically undermined by the government, FT reported. Ukrainian officials said political rivalries were at the heart of the government shake-up. The U.S. and other Western partners “right now ... are losing trust in Ukraine’s government because of personnel decisions that they do not understand,” one concerned Ukrainian government official told this newspaper in reference to the resignation of Nayyem, who has been in charge of constructing the country’s “third lines” of defense fortifications. “It’s probably our most important partnership as we prepare for the reconstruction of the country and as we work towards this common goal of getting Ukraine back to business, getting exports flowing,” a woman representing USAID told FT.
  7. On June 12, the U.S. Treasury Department announced new sanctions on over 300 people and entities in Russia, China, Belarus, as well as other countries in Europe, Asia and Africa to crack down on flows of products and services needed to sustain Russia’s military production. Also sanctioned are the Moscow Exchange, as well as entities involved in Russia’s LNG projects. The new punitive measures are also meant to expand “secondary” sanctions that give the United States the power to blacklist any bank around the world that does business with Russian financial institutions already facing sanctions.   


I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

  • The Russian Defense Ministry reported on June 13 that its personnel “ensured the safe conduct of another rotation of observers of the IAEA mission at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant.” Four inspectors arrived at ZNPP as part of the mission, the ministry said. (RM, 06.13.24)
  • In his latest update on the situation at ZNPP, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said agency staff had "confirmed with the plant that one of the mines located next to the cooling pond area exploded on 11 June. There were no physical damage or casualties from the explosion and the cause of the explosion was not shared with the IAEA team." (WNN, 06.14.24)
  • Bulgaria is one of several EU countries in the process of switching from Russian-supplied fuel for their nuclear reactors. Westinghouse signed a 10-year supply contract in December 2022 and is supplying its RWFA VVER-1000 fuel design, which the American company has been supplying to several Ukrainian plants over the past decade. (WNN, 06.12.24)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit North Korea and Vietnam in succession over the coming weeks, a diplomatic source told Vedomosti. The president’s visit to Vietnam could take place as early as June and, most likely, immediately after the visit to the DPRK. (Vedomosti, 06.10.24)
    • North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on June 12 hailed his country's ties with Russia, saying the two nations were "invincible comrades-in-arms.” (MT/AFP, 06.12.24)
  • North Korea has sent containers to Russia that could hold nearly 5 million artillery shells and Putin will likely seek even more when he soon visits Pyongyang, South Korea’s defense minister said. (Bloomberg, 06.14.24)

Iran and its nuclear program:

  • On the sidelines of the BRICS foreign ministers meeting in Nizhny Novgorod on June 10, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov met with acting Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Ali Bagheri Kani and discussed efforts to form a Russo-Iranian "strategic partnership" and create a new comprehensive intergovernmental agreement. Russia and Iran have fully agreed on the text of a treaty on comprehensive cooperation, but the document cannot be signed until Iran completes necessary legislative procedures, Lavrov said. TASS reported that Kani stated that Iran "sees enormous potential for expanding and strengthening [Russo-Iranian] interaction.” (ISW, 06.10.24, BNE, 06.11.24)
  • A survey of Iranians, conducted between Feb. 20 and May 26, revealed that over 69% of Iranians support Iran pursuing nuclear weapons. This marks a departure from earlier opinion polls in which most Iranians consistently rejected the weaponization of the country’s nuclear program.  (BAS, 06.13.24)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

  • Ukrainian broadcaster Suspilne reports that at least 216 civilians have been killed in the Kharkiv oblast in 2024, including 106 in May alone. (WSJ, 06.09.24)
  • On June 14, 254 deceased soldiers were returned to Ukraine, according to the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War. (, 06.14.24)
  • Ukrainian children who were abducted and taken to Russia in the early months of the Kremlin’s 2022 invasion have been put up for adoption by authorities, in one case under a false Russian identity. The children were abducted from state care homes. They range in age from eight to 15 years old. (FT, 06.11.24)
    • U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan said the United States is aware of “new and credible reports” that Russia has listed abducted Ukrainian children on Russian adoption websites. Sullivan described the development as "despicable and appalling" in a statement on June 12. (RFE/RL, 06.12.24)
  • Thousands of Ukrainians are searching for scraps of information about relatives who have disappeared into a Russian system of incarceration. Ukraine has identified about 1,700 cases of civilian prisoners being kept in Russia or Russian-occupied areas. Human-rights activists say that the real number is likely several times higher. (WSJ, 06.11.24)
  • In the European Union, at the end of April 2024, almost 4.2 million citizens of non-EU countries who left Ukraine as a result of war had temporary protection status. By the end of March there were 4.21 million people. This is stated in Eurostat data. It is noted that the number of Ukrainian refugees has increased in 19 countries. The largest increases were observed in Romania (+3,275), Sweden (+1,855), Bulgaria (+1,780) and Slovakia (+1,250). (, 06.10.24)
  • Ukrainian officials have called on Western partners to provide billions in aid for their country’s battered energy sector, as Russian air strikes have forced power companies to impose nationwide rolling blackouts. (FT, 06.11.24)
    • Russian missile and drone strikes have already destroyed 9 GW of Ukraine’s energy generating capacity while the peak energy consumption in Ukraine last winter was 18 GW, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said at the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2024. “Eighty percent of Ukraine's thermal generation and a third of its hydroelectric generation have simply been destroyed by Putin,” he said. (, 06.12.24)
    • The ongoing Russian attacks on the vulnerable energy system offer few prospects of a quick fix that could right the situation before Ukraine enters its third winter of the war. (FP, 06.11.24)
    • “This winter will be the most difficult since the full-scale invasion started,” said Sergii Koretskyi, chief execution of oil and gas company Ukrnafta. “Everyone will face problems with the electricity supply. So we need to prepare for this right now.” (FT, 06.11.24)
  • The United States provides $824 million to support Ukrainian energy infrastructure, Penny Pritzker, the special representative of the U.S. for the economic recovery of Ukraine, said in Berlin during a conference on the recovery of Ukraine. (Ukrinform, 06.11.24)
  • Mustafa Nayyem, head of Ukraine’s State Agency for Restoration and Infrastructure Development, has resigned, claiming his agency was being systematically undermined by the government, FT reported. Ukrainian officials said political rivalries were at the heart of the government shake-up. The U.S. and other Western partners “right now .... are losing trust in Ukraine’s government because of personnel decisions that they do not understand,” one concerned Ukrainian government official told this newspaper in reference to the resignation of Nayyem, who has been in charge of constructing the country’s “third lines” of defense fortifications. “It’s probably our most important partnership as we prepare for the reconstruction of the country and as we work towards this common goal of getting Ukraine back to business, getting exports flowing,” a woman representing USAID told FT. (FT, 06.10.24)
    • Nayyem complained of “systemic hindering” of his work in a statement posted on Facebook on June 10. “Starting from November last year, the team of the agency faced constant opposition, resistance and the creation of artificial obstacles,” Nayyem said. (Bloomberg, 06.10.24)
  • For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

  • In the past month, Russian forces have gained 167 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces have re-gained 1 square mile, according to the June 11, 2024, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (Belfer Russia-Ukraine War Task Force, 06.11.24)
    • Former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said at the Futurist Summit on June 13: “Is it at a stalemate? You know, the Russians have suffered a tremendous amount of casualties. ... I would say probably the Russians don't have the military capability to overrun Ukraine. ... The Ukrainians, on the other hand, they've also suffered tremendously. ... They've economically suffered. ... And the Ukrainian military ... their offensive capability is limited in the sense that it is not likely that the Ukrainian military can militarily eject the 2- or 300,000 Russian troops that are still in Russian-occupied Ukraine. So, by definition, if both of those descriptions are accurate, and I think they most likely are, by definition, then, from a military—purely military standpoint, you're at a military stand—a stalemate.” (WP, 06.13.24)
  • On June 7, a Ukrainian warplane for the first time fired a weapon that struck a target inside Russia, a Ukrainian military source told Sky News. The source said a "Russian command node" was hit on the area of Belgorod. (Sky News, 06.09.24)
  • Between June 7 and 8, Ukrainian forces likely struck a Russian Su-57 fighter aircraft at the Akhtubinsk Airfield in Astrakhan Oblast. (ISW, 06.09.24)
  • On June 8, Zelenskyy said the Russian military has "failed" to carry out its offensive in the Kharkiv region. The White House on June 9 did not directly confirm Zelenskyy's remarks, but national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Russia's advance on Kharkiv had been resisted for now. (RFE/RL, 06.09.24)
  • On June 8, Ukraine and Russia exchanged drone attacks. Ukrainian air defenses shot down nine out of 13 Russian drones in the early hours of June 8, Air Force commander Lt. Gen. Mykola Oleshchuk said. Meanwhile, Russia’s Defense Ministry said its air defenses had intercepted 27 Ukrainian drones, including over North Ossetia, marking the first drone attack on the region since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. (RFE/RL, 06.08.24)
  • Overnight on June 9 to 10, Ukrainian forces conducted a strike against Russian air defense assets in occupied Crimea likely with ATACMS. Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces claimed to have successfully struck one S-400 antiaircraft missile division in Crimea’s Dzhankoy area and two S-300 antiaircraft missile divisions near Chornomorskiy and Yevpatoria were destroyed and an “immediate shutdown of S-300/S-400 complex radars was recorded.” (RFE/RL, 06.10.24, ISW, 06.10.24)
  • On June 10, Zelenskyy denied Russian troops had captured a village in the northeastern Sumy region, where Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov previously claimed Moscow's forces had advanced. Kadyrov said June 9 that Russian forces had seized the border village of Ryzhivka. (MT/AFP, 06.10.24)
  • On June 10, Russia's Defense Ministry claimed its forces seized control of the Staromaiorske village in the southern part of eastern Ukraine's partially occupied Donetsk region. (MT/AFP, 06.10.24)
  • On June 11, Russia's Defense Ministry claimed its forces captured two villages in eastern Ukraine, including Tymkivka in the Kharkiv region and Miasozharivka in the partially occupied Luhansk region. (MT/AFP, 06.11.24)
  • On June 12, Ukraine’s OSINT team DeepState reported that Russian forces had advanced near Viimka, Novooleksandrivka, Karlivka, Novopokrovsky Staromayorsky, Krasnogorivtsi and Nevelskoy. (RM, 06.12.24)
  • On the night of June 11-12, Russia launched a large-scale missile and drone attack across Ukraine. Ukrainian air defenses downed five of six missiles and all 24 explosive-laden Shahed drones over its central, southern and eastern regions, the country’s air force command said. Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, meanwhile said Russian forces had failed to make significant progress along the front line over the last week. (Bloomberg, 06.12.24)
  • On June 12, Ukraine said that its air defenses — drawing on stocks of anti-aircraft missiles recently replenished by its allies — had shot down 29 of 30 missiles and exploding drones that Russia had fired. It was one of the better rates of interception by Ukraine so far during the war. (NYT, 06.12.24)
  • On June 13, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said on the sidelines of a NATO defense ministers' meeting in Belgium: "What I see is a slowing of the Russians' advance and a stabilizing of that particular piece of the front.” “Now I think we'll see incremental gains - and we'll see puts and takes - going forward," he added. (Sky News, 06.13.24)
  • On June 13, Gennady Matsegora, the former mayor of Kupyansk, Ukraine, who surrendered his city to invading Russian forces in February 2022, died after being shot near his safe house in western Russia over the weekend. (MT/AFP, 06.13.24)
  • On June 14, Moscow said it had downed 87 Ukrainian drones overnight, among which 70 targeted the southern Rostov region where the command center for Russia's military operation against Kyiv is based. Also on June 14, Russian law enforcement authorities launched a criminal investigation into a shelling attack in eastern Ukraine that killed a cameraman and injured a war correspondent working for the pro-government NTV television channel. NTV cameraman Valery Kozhin died in the hospital on June 13. (MT/AFP, 06.14.24, MT/AFP, 06.14.24)
  • Every day there are up to 100 guided aerial bombs dropped by Russian forces, Zelenskyy said at the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2024. (, 06.12.24)
  • Brig. Gen. Serhii Holubtsov, the aviation chief of Ukraine's air force, said Russia is launching a minimum of 15 glide bombs each day at the city of Kharkiv and 30 and 60 across the oblast. (WSJ, 06.09.24)
  • In a sign of the Ukrainian military's desperate need for fresh troops, Kyiv is taking a leaf out of Russia's playbook by recruiting inmates from prisons to serve in its armed forces. The government says that 4,656 convicts have already applied for the program in which prisoners will have to serve till the end of the war before winning their freedom. (WSJ, 06.08.24)
  • The Ukrainian Defense Ministry reported that the ratio of volunteers and mobilized who joined the army is 1 to 3. (, 06.12.24)
  • The Wagner PMC, founded by Yevgeny Prigozhin, recruited at least 48,366 prisoners for the war in Ukraine. Most of the Wagnerites died in the battles for Bakhmut. There, Wagner lost 19,500 people, of which 17,100 were prisoners. During this time, Wagner spent about 108 billion rubles on payments to the families of dead mercenaries, of which 92.5 billion rubles were sent to the relatives of recruited prisoners. (Media Zone/BBC, 06.10.24)
  • The Kremlin has forced thousands of migrants and foreign students to fight alongside Russian troops in its war against Ukraine, according to assessments from European officials. (Bloomberg, 06.09.24)
    • At least 22 Sri Lankans who joined Russian forces have managed to desert, escape and return home, Sri Lankan defense officials said. (AFP, 06.12.24)
    • India's Ministry of External Affairs announced the death of two Indian citizens recruited into the Russian army and called for a halt to any further recruitment of its citizens. (, 06.12.24)

Military and security aid to Ukraine: 

  • On June 13, 2024, Biden and Zelenskyy signed a 10-year U.S.-Ukraine Bilateral Security Agreement. With the signing of the agreement, the United States and Ukraine will work together to: 
    • Build and maintain Ukraine’s credible defense and deterrence capability. 
    • Strengthen Ukraine’s capacity to sustain its fight over the long term.
    • Accelerate Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration, including through Ukraine’s implementation of reforms to its democratic, economic and security institutions in line with its EU accession goals and NATO’s program of reforms.
    • Achieve a just peace that respects Ukraine’s rights under international law, is underwritten by broad global support, upholds the key principles of the U.N. Charter, including sovereignty and territorial integrity, and includes accountability for Russia’s actions.
    • Consult in the event of a future Russian armed attack against Ukraine at the highest levels to determine appropriate and necessary measures to support Ukraine and impose costs on Russia. (, 06.13.24) Doesn’t require ratification.
      • On June 13, Biden hailed the agreement, plans for $50 billion in Ukraine aid and expanded sanctions targeting Moscow. “We’ll be with Ukraine until they prevail in this war,” Biden said alongside Zelenskyy at a press conference in Italy. At the same time, Biden said he was sticking by his decision to not deploy American troops to fight in Ukraine and had no plans to allow Ukraine to use U.S.-weapons to strike targets farther into Russian territory. (Bloomberg, 06.13.24)
      • The text of the agreement "clearly states" that Washington supports Ukraine's victory in the war, Zelenskyy said, speaking at a joint press conference with Biden. (RFE/RL, 06.13.24)
      • The security pact falls short of the mutual defense guarantee that Ukraine would be part of if it joined NATO, though the U.S. did pledge that the country’s “future” lies inside the transatlantic alliance. One ominous provision of the agreement says it can be terminated with six months notice, meaning it could be in peril if former president Donald Trump, a skeptic of Ukraine aid, defeats Biden in the U.S. election in November. (FT, 06.13.24)
  • Biden last week approved the deployment of another Patriot missile system to Ukraine, senior administration and military officials said, as the country struggles to fend off Russian attacks on its cities, infrastructure and electrical grid. The new Patriot system — the second that the United States has sent to Ukraine — will come from Poland. (NYT, 06.11.24)
  • The Biden administration will allow a Ukrainian military unit with a checkered past to use U.S. weaponry, the State Department said. The Azov Brigade was barred about a decade ago from using American arms because U.S. officials determined that some of its founders espoused racist, xenophobic and ultranationalist views, and U.N. human rights officials accused the group of humanitarian violations. (WP, 06.10.24)
  • The Biden Administration’s limited policy change permitting Ukraine to use U.S.-provided weapons to strike some Russian military targets in a small area within Russian territory has reduced the size of Russia’s ground sanctuary by only 16%. (ISW, 06.09.24)
  • On June 14, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said after a meeting of NATO defense ministers that the war in Ukraine has entered a “key stage” and, thus, the alliance’s members should increase military aid to Kyiv. (, 06.14.24)
  • The Pentagon renewed a contract with Elon Musk’s SpaceX to provide Starlink internet services in Ukraine for another six months. (Bloomberg, 06.13.24)
  • NATO defense ministers have approved an operational plan for enhanced support to Ukraine. It includes a greater role for the alliance in supplying weapons and training the Ukrainian military, according to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. Stoltenberg also stated that the supply of weapons to Ukraine may become mandatory for NATO members in order to ensure that NATO's security assistance for Ukraine remains "reliable and large-scale." (, 06.14.24, ISW, 06.13.24)
  • Stoltenberg says Hungary will not block support to Ukraine, though it will exercise its opt-out and not provide soldiers or funds the military alliance supplies to Kyiv as it battles to repel invading Russian forces. Stoltenberg has been meeting with NATO members on a tour as he looks to shore up support ahead of a summit in Washington next month for the alliance to increase its role in aiding Ukraine's military. (RFE/RL, 06.12.24)
    • The leader of the Hungarian government, Viktor Orban, considers NATO states’ desire for Russia’s defeat in Ukraine to be erroneous. "Hungary's position is that this is a mistake,” he said. (Ukrainska Pravda, 06.14.24)
  • Ukraine signed a bilateral 10-year security agreement with Japan on June 13. The Japan-Ukraine agreement provides for Japan's $4.5 billion contribution to Ukraine in 2024 and continued 10-year long support in security and defense, humanitarian aid, technical and financial cooperation, reconstruction efforts and sanctions measures against Russia. (ISW, 06.13.24)
  • Germany has allocated a new package of military assistance for Ukraine. It includes IRIS-T air defense systems, HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems and Leopard 1 tanks.  Germany was also to deliver several thousand strike drones and 100 additional Patriot guided-missiles to Ukraine. (, 06.14.24, Bloomberg, 06.11.24)
  • Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani told the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Berlin that the government in Rome is also readying another military package for Kyiv that will include a SAMP-T defense system. (Bloomberg, 06.11.24)
    • German Chancellor Olaf Scholz pilloried lawmakers from the far-right Alternative for Germany and the far-left BSW parties for boycotting Zelenskyy’s speech to the nation’s parliament. (Bloomberg, 06.11.24)
  • Brig. Gen. Serhiy Holubtsov, chief of aviation in Ukraine's Air Force, says some of the dozens of advanced F-16 aircraft pledged to Kyiv by Western allies will be stored abroad to avoid them being hit in Russian attacks on Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 06.10.24)
  • The United States and Poland on June 10 launched an international operation based in Warsaw whose mission is to help Ukraine counter Russian disinformation. (RFE/RL, 06.10.24)
  • A Carnegie Endowment-sponsored opinion poll conducted in mid-March 2024 by the Rating agency revealed that nearly half of Ukrainians believe the war with Russia is at a stalemate. The poll has also found Ukrainians overwhelmingly rejected the notion that Russia is winning the war (only 5% believe it is); the remaining majority was split almost evenly between those who thought Ukraine is winning and those who thought neither side is winning. When it comes to war outcomes, 73% of Ukrainians believed that Ukraine will eventually liberate all of its territories. A sizeable percentage also believed that Ukraine will regain some or all of its territories within the next year (56%) and that the war will end within two years (59%). (CEIP, 06.11.24)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

  • On June 12, the U.S. Treasury Department announced new sanctions on over 300 people and entities in Russia, China, Belarus, as well as other countries in Europe, Asia and Africa to crack down on flows of products and services needed to sustain Russia’s military production. Also sanctioned are the Moscow Exchange and some of its affiliates in a move set to complicate billions of dollars in transactions. Also sanctioned are entities involved in Russia’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects. The new punitive measures are also meant to expand “secondary” sanctions that give the United States the power to blacklist any bank around the world that does business with Russian financial institutions already facing sanctions. The new measures include all Russian companies, people and entities that have been previously sanctioned, including banks Sberbank and VTB, increasing the risk to third-country financial institutions or companies who do business in the Russian economy. (RFE/RL, 06.12.24, NYT, 06.12.24, MT/AFP, 06.12.24, Bloomberg, 06.12.24, NYT, 06.14.24, WP, 06.13.24)
  • "Today's actions strike at their remaining avenues for international materials and equipment, including their reliance on critical supplies from third countries," Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a statement. "We are increasing the risk for financial institutions dealing with Russia's war economy and eliminating paths for evasion, and diminishing Russia's ability to benefit from access to foreign technology, equipment, software, and IT services," she added. Yellen said she was most concerned about smaller Chinese banks doing business with Russia, even as she didn’t rule out sanctioning a bigger lender if it engaged in “systematic violations” of sanctions against the Kremlin. (MT/AFP, 06.12.24, Bloomberg, 06.13.24)
  • Russian energy expert Tatiana Mitrova wrote on her LinkedIn page on June 13 regarding the latest U.S. sanctions that target LNG entities in Russia: “New Russian LNG projects face severe restrictions. The blocking sanctions now include Arctic LNG 1 and 3, Murmansk LNG, Ob LNG, the Zvezda shipyard, specific LNG tankers and Rusgazdobycha's Baltic LNG in Ust-Luga. This appears to be the most significant setback for the sector. OFAC has expanded sanctions to encompass all future NOVATEK projects and seven LNG carriers under construction at the Rosneft-backed Zvezda shipyard for the Arctic LNG 2 Project. These sanctions pose significant challenges through the whole supply chain, from constructing LNG plants to transporting and marketing the sanctioned LNG. The future of Russia's LNG projects now hinges on the outcomes of these developments.” (RM, 06.14.24)
  • The latest round of U.S. sanctions effectively ended three decades of daily exchange trading in the dollar for Russia’s ruble. On June 13, Russia’s main exchange halted trading in dollars and euros after a sharp escalation in the U.S. sanctions targeted the remaining links between the Russian financial system and foreign banks. Russia’s central bank said exchange rates for the ruble will now reflect interbank transactions, after U.S. sanctions announced on June 12 on the Moscow Exchange (Moex), Russia’s oldest marketplace, forced trades off the central market. The changes mean that pricing of the ruble will become more opaque(FT, 06.13.24, Bloomberg, 06.13.24)
    • The Central Bank of Russia said it would set daily dollar and euro exchange rates based on aggregated data from commercial bank purchases and sales. It fixed June 13's official rate at 88.2 rubles to the dollar. (WP, 06.13.24)
    • The sharp escalation in sanctions by the Treasury Department prompted former Russian president and prime minister Dmitry Medvedev, now a senior security official, to call on Russians to "inflict maximum harm" on Western societies and infrastructure in retaliation. (WP, 06.13.24)
  • On June 13, Biden and key European leaders reached a preliminary agreement to finance Ukraine with a loan of up to $50 billion, backed by the profits on frozen Russian assets. G-7 leaders aimed to announce the framework of an agreement to use the investment returns, mainly interest payments, generated from roughly $300 billion in Russian sovereign assets that the U.S. and Europe froze after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The loan will be earmarked for three main purposes, the officials said: to support Ukraine militarily, including helping it establish arms factories on its territory; to help cover the country’s budgetary deficit; and to help with the urgent reconstruction of infrastructure. (WSJ, 06.13.24, NYT, 06.14.24)
    • Key details of the financing arrangement still need to be agreed. Who will guarantee the loan is vague — the liability is expected to be shared among the countries that issue it, according to two European officials close to the talks. (NYT, 06.14.24, WSJ. 06.14.24)
    • The Americans have said that they will put up the entire sum but would like others to participate. The upfront money for the loan will come from the United States, the European Union and other G-7 countries. (NYT, 06.14.24)
    • Biden has agreed to have the United States underwrite the entire loan. (NYT, 06.13.24)
    • U.S. and French officials said they hope the disbursements can start flowing to Ukraine by the end of the year. (WSJ, 06.13.24)
    • Some 1.5 billion euros in proceeds from frozen Russian assets will be available in July and will be used to help Ukraine, head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen said at the conference on the restoration of Ukraine in Berlin. (, 06.11.24)
  • On June 13, the U.K. revealed dozens of new sanctions aimed at impeding Russia's ability to wage war against Ukraine, including targeting Moscow's main stock exchange, a day after Washington announced similar measures. London said the 50 new restrictions would hit the Russian financial system and suppliers supporting Moscow's military production. The U.K. sanctions also aim to clamp down on a shadow-fleet of tankers transporting the Kremlin’s oil and Russia’s Ingosstrakh Insurance Co. (MT/AFP, 06.13.24, Bloomberg, 06.13.24)
  • Foreign ministers from eight EU countries have sent a letter to EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell asking him to curb Russian diplomats' movement in the Schengen area over their concern that the free movement of the diplomats facilitates "malign activities." (RFE/RL, 06.13.24)
  • Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will disconnect their electrical grids from the Russian and Belarussian system (BRELL) in February next year, officials from the Baltic nations have confirmed. (MT/AFP, 06.11.24)
  • Singapore has refused to renew the visa of Philip Adkins, the U.S.-born chief executive of heavy-duty shipping company Red Box Energy Services, forcing him to resign after the company was designated by the U.S. Treasury for breaching sanctions on Russia. (FT, 06.14.24)
  • Scientists are embarking on an effort to keep sanctioned Russian timber out of Europe by mapping the unique chemical fingerprints of trees, a process that could be used to vet corporate supply chains for other banned commodities. (WSJ, 06.10.24)
  • Russia has added the Georgian National Legion, a unit of volunteer soldiers fighting on the side of Ukraine, to its list of terrorist organizations, state media reported on June 14, citing the FSB. (MT/AFP, 06.14.24)
  • Major banks in the Central Asia republic of Kyrgyzstan have suspended money transfers to and from Russia amid exchange rate volatility and issues with payment systems, state-run media reported on June 13. (MT/AFP, 06.13.24)
  • German exports of cars and spare parts to Kyrgyzstan, a backwater in global terms, soared 50-fold between 2021 and 2023. (The Economist, 06.13.24)
  • For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

  • The initial idea of the June 15-16 peace summit in Switzerland was to forge a unified proposal based on Zelenskyy’s 10-point “peace formula,” dating back to 2022; and then to present it to Russia. The formula was developed at a time of relative Ukrainian strength. However, the expected communiqué of the peace summit, which was delayed five times, will cover only three of the most uncontroversial points of the formula: food security; nuclear security; and the return of prisoners and children. There will be no formal resolutions on thornier issues like reparations, war tribunals or the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine. The apparent dilution of Zelenskyy’s peace formula has some supporters anxious. (The Economist, 06.13.24)
    • Some 160 heads of state, government leaders and international organizations have been invited to the summit, with Swiss officials saying on June 10 that just over 90 have so far indicated their participation. However, European Union diplomats told RFE/RL that the number has fallen to 78. According to FT, some 80 world leaders are expected at the Swiss resort of Bürgenstock. (RFE/RL, 06.12.24, FT, 06.14.24)
    • One diplomat reportedly said Beijing had told developing nations the meeting in Switzerland would prolong the war, while two diplomats with direct knowledge of the matter said China had been telling Western nations that many developing countries were aligned with its views on the conference. Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said last week: "China sincerely hopes that a peace conference will not turn into a platform used to create bloc confrontation. Not attending it does not mean not supporting peace." (Sky News, 06.13.24)
    • Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva stopped off in Switzerland on June 13. He won’t be returning for a summit on Ukraine 48 hours later. Brazil’s government said that the president was attending an International Labor Organization meeting in Geneva before traveling on the same day to the G-7 in Italy. (Bloomberg, 06.14.24)
  • Putin called on Ukraine to withdraw from four eastern regions partially occupied by his forces as a condition of peace talks, ahead of a Kyiv-backed conference on the war to which Moscow hasn’t been invited. Putin said Ukrainian forces should pull out from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions of the country in return for a cease-fire by Russian troops. He also demanded that Ukraine give up its bid to join NATO, undergo denazification and demilitarization, ensure the rights of Russian-speakers and remain free of nuclear weapons in a televised speech before Foreign Ministry officials on June 14. Another condition is lifting Russia sanctions by the West, Putin said, according to the Kremlin’s transcript of his speech. (Bloomberg, 06.14.24, RM, 06.14.24)
    • Putin also said that he had told a foreign leader (Israel’s then PM) in 2022 that Russian troops would be prepared to leave parts of the Zaporozhzhia and Kherson regions they had occupied if Ukraine were to provide official written guarantees of Russia’s access to Crimea via these two regions. (RM, 06.14.24)
    • "These messages are messages of ultimatum ... it's the same thing Hitler did," said Zelenskyy—whom Putin called illegitimate again on June 14. Oleksandr Merezhko, head of Ukraine’s parliamentary foreign affairs committee did not rule out peace talks or the more likely prospect of a negotiated ceasefire, using the example of North and South Korea, who never formally declared peace. But even ceasefire talks would be “hopeless” without serious security guarantees from the West, said Merezhko.  (FT, 06.14.24, AFP, 06.14.24)
    • U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said after a meeting of NATO defense ministers that Putin does not have the right to impose peace conditions on Kyiv. "This is exactly the kind of behavior we don't want to see. We don't want to see the leader of some country decide that he wants to move the borders and annex his neighbor's territory," Austin said. (, 06.14.24)
  • Russian Field polled Russians in June 2024, finding that 49% of respondents are in favor of a transition to peace negotiations, and 41% are in favor of continuing the “military operation.” More than three quarters of respondents (78%) would support Putin's decision to conclude peace agreement tomorrow, while 17% do not support such a step. The share support for a peaceful solution has reached its highest level during the observation period, according to the pollster. When asked what the peaceful resolution should provide for, 9% said it was recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk republics as parts of Russia, 7% said it would be recognition of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions as parts of Russia, 7% said it would include Ukraine's refusal to join NATO, 6% said denazification and an end to discrimination against Russians in Ukraine, 5% said it would be Ukraine’s capitulation, another 5% said it would have to be peace on Russia's terms and another 5% called for Ukraine’s demilitarization. (RM, 06.14.24)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

  • Biden's recent comments signaling Ukraine is unlikely to become a NATO member during its war to repel invading Russian troops is not a change in Washington's position on the issue ahead of a key summit for the military alliance's leaders, James O'Brien, U.S. assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, said. (RFE/RL, 06.12.24)
  • Stoltenberg said June 13 that the bloc's member countries could impose "tighter restrictions" on Russian intelligence operatives after a recent string of sabotage attacks. Stoltenberg said a NATO defense ministers meeting in Brussels would discuss plans to counter a "Russian campaign of hostile activities against NATO allies." (MT/AFP, 06.13.24)
  • Finnish authorities suspect a total of four Russian military aircraft were involved in an airspace violation on June 10. A four-aircraft division, including two bombers and two fighter jets, violated the Finnish airspace in the eastern part of the Gulf of Finland, reaching as far as 2.5 kilometers (1.6 miles) into Finland’s territory, the border guard said June 14 in an update as it continues to investigate the incident. The airspace violation is the first such move from Russia since the Nordic country joined the NATO alliance last year. (Bloomberg, 06.14.24)
  • Germany is to reintroduce a limited form of military service, though the plan falls far short of the defense ministry’s original goal of restoring the system of conscription scrapped 13 years ago. Defense ministry officials described the model, which borrows heavily from a system used by Sweden, as a “selective form of military service based on a voluntary principle but containing obligatory elements if necessary.” Of the 400,000 18-year-olds who would be approached by the Bundeswehr under his plan every year, about a quarter would likely express an interest in serving. Of these, 40,000 to 50,000 would be invited to undergo a medical examination. (FT, 06.13.24)
  • In his party's manifesto released June 13, the U.K. Labor party's Sir Keir Starmer said: "With Labor, the U.K.'s military, financial, diplomatic and political support for Ukraine will remain steadfast." (Sky News, 06.13.24)
  • Canada is preparing a long-awaited Arctic strategy to respond to the growing threat posed by Russia and to strengthen security ties with northern NATO members. (Bloomberg, 06.12.24)
  • Russian Field polled Russians in June 2024, finding that more than half of respondents (57%) believe that a new world war could break out in the coming years, while 36% believe that such a war is impossible. Most often, respondents believe that China (58%) and Belarus (48%) will side with Russia in the event of a new world war. (RM, 06.14.24)
  • An all-Russian survey by the Levada Center conducted May 23–29, 2024, revealed that Russians view the following five countries as the most friendly to Russia: Belarus (81%), China (65%), Kazakhstan and India (33% each) and Iran (32%). The survey also revealed that Russians view the following five countries as the most hostile to Russia: the U.S. (76%), the U.K. (51%), Germany (49%), Ukraine (38%) and Poland (37%). More than half of respondents (53%) consider it necessary to normalize relations with Western countries, but their share is gradually decreasing (in February 2020, the share of people who held this opinion was 79%). (Levada, 06.14.24)
  • Across 34 nations polled, a median of 43% have confidence in Biden to do the right thing regarding world affairs, while just 28% have confidence in Trump, according to Pew polls. (Pew, 06.12.24)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

  • On the sidelines of the BRICS foreign ministers meeting in Nizhny Novgorod on June 10, Lavrov met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. The Chinese MFA stated that developing Russo-Chinese relations is a "strategic choice" by both parties and that Lavrov and Wang "exchanged views" on the war in Ukraine. The Russian MFA labeled the Russo-Chinese relationship as a "strategic partnership" and stated that Lavrov thanked Wang for the PRC's "balanced" line on the war in Ukraine and for not sending a representative to the June 15-16 Ukrainian peace summit in Switzerland. The Russian MFA also stated that Lavrov and Wang discussed stability in the Asia-Pacific region, where they accused the U.S. of allegedly creating anti-Russian and anti-Chinese military-political structures. (ISW, 06.10.24)
  • China’s Wuchan Zhongda Group Co., which had sales of 580 billion yuan ($80 billion) in 2023, bought 2,000 tons of refined copper from a Russian smelter that should have been delivered last month. It never made it to port, according to people with knowledge of the incident. Instead, the metal was listed as much cheaper granite and has likely ended up in Turkey. (Bloomberg, 06.12.24)
  • G-7 leaders believe China’s support for Russia’s defense-industrial complex poses a “long-term threat” to European security. The G-7 leaders were to discuss China on June 14, the second and final day of the group’s summit in Italy. The talks come days after the EU announced new tariffs on Chinese electric-car makers that it says are benefiting from unfair subsidies and after the U.S. imposed new sanctions on China-based companies supplying Russia with semiconductors that could aid its war machine. (FT, 06.14.24) 
  • Chinese President Xi Jinping told Zelenskyy during a phone conversation that China would not sell weapons to Russia, Zelenskyy claimed on June 13. (Straits Times, 06.14.24)

Missile defense:

  • No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

  • On June 7, a senior Biden administration official warned that “absent a change” in nuclear strategy by China and Russia, the U.S. may be forced to expand its nuclear arsenal after decades of cutting back through now largely abandoned arms control agreements. The comments on June 7 from Pranay Vaddi, a senior director of the National Security Council, were the most explicit public warning yet that the United States was prepared to shift from simply modernizing its arsenal to expanding it. (NYT, 06.07.24)
  • On June 10, Belarusian Defense Minister Viktar Khrenin said in a statement on YouTube that his country’s armed forces were already taking part in the second phase of Russian exercises to practice the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons. Khrenin claimed that the drills were being held “to guarantee security” for Belarus and the Union State of Belarus and Russia. The first phase of the exercises, ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin, was held in southern Russia in May. (RFE/RL, 06.10.24)
  • On June 11, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told journalists on the sidelines of the BRICS Foreign Ministers Meeting in Nizhny Novgorod: “I can only say that the situation is trending toward further exacerbation and those challenges that are multiplying as a result of unacceptable and escalatory actions by the U.S. and its NATO allies undoubtedly set before an issue as to how founding documents in the sphere of nuclear containment can be brought more in accordance with current needs.” “Before making decisions on the matter, we do not usually preliminarily say which kinds of changes might be introduced,” Ryabkov added in his response to a question as to which provisions of state policy on nuclear containment may undergo changes. (TASS, 06.11.24)
  • On June 13, head of the 12th Main Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Russia Lt. Gen. Igor Kolesnikov was quoted in the Russian MoD’s Telegram channel as saying that “issues of joint training of Belarusian combat units and Russian nuclear support units were worked out” in the second stage of exercises of non-strategic nuclear forces. “In the course of carrying out the tasks, mobile formations of the 12th directorate ensured delivery of training nuclear munitions to field storage points” of a rocket-and-missile brigade as well as to an airdrome where attack warplanes are based, he said, standing in front of a Su-25, which is a dual-use warplane. The Russian and Belarussian personnel practiced “delivery of missiles” and their installment under the aircraft that are designed to carry nuclear-armed missiles, according to Kolesnikov, whose directorate is responsible for nuclear weapons in the Russian military. The sides are presently practicing being on combat duty with training nuclear munitions, the general said. “The results of training… will be summed up, and directions for further improvement of the training of non-strategic nuclear forces will be determined in order to guarantee the completion of tasks under various options for the development of the military-political situation,” according to Kolesnikov. (RM, 06.13.24)
    • As part of the second stage of the exercises of non-strategic nuclear forces, the personnel of a rocket and missile formation of the Leningrad Military District have trained to complete missions of covertly advancing to a designated position area and then carried out electronic launches of missiles against simulated enemy targets,” the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) said on June 13. In addition, the exercise saw naval vessels deploy to designated patrol areas, the ministry said. (RM, 06.13.24)
    • Judging by the data of the Russian MoD, the electronic simulation of launches of nuclear strikes was carried out at a range of up to 400 km. That is, the affected area from the possible use of missiles with nuclear weapons included military facilities of most European NATO countries. (, 06.13.24)
    • Secretary of the Russian Security Council Sergei Shoigu stated that “non-strategic nuclear exercises between Russia and Belarus are an adequate response to the support of Ukraine by Western countries and the Ukrainian Armed Forces obtaining permission to strike Russian territory with Western weapons.” “In addition, by holding strategic nuclear forces exercises, Russia responded to the buildup of the military potential of NATO countries near the borders of our country,” Shoigu said. (, 06.13.24)
  • On June 14, Putin said in a televised speech before the Foreign Ministry’s top officials: “Calls to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, which has the largest arsenals of nuclear weapons, demonstrate the extreme adventurism of Western politicians. They either do not understand the scale of the threat that they themselves create or are simply obsessed with the belief in their own impunity and in their own exclusivity. Both of these can result in tragedy.” (RM, 06.14.24)
  • For the time being, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius sees no risk of escalation from Putin’s nuclear weapons threats: “We must not allow ourselves to be intimidated by every statement he makes,” he said at a meeting of NATO’s nuclear planning group in Brussels. “Sometimes he threatens, sometimes he entices, sometimes he appears irritated, then aggressive again.” (, 06.13.24)
  • Russia might be keeping 100 nuclear warheads in the Kaliningrad region, according to Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski. (Ukrainska Pravda, 06.11.24)
  • Russian Field polled Russians in June 2024 to find out three-quarters of respondents believe that the use of nuclear weapons during Russia’s “military operation” in Ukraine is unacceptable (76%). Another 11% of respondents believe that it is permissible in any case, 7% - only if there is a threat of Russian defeat in the “military operation.” (RM, 06.14.24)


  • Six Russian nationals suspected to have terror ties to ISIS have been arrested in a coordinated sting operation spanning Los Angeles, New York and Philadelphia. Two ICE sources confirmed they arrested the six people who hail from Tajikistan. Two others who were part of the same group were also arrested after being under surveillance for “several months” by a multi-agency Joint Terrorism Task Force, according to NBC. Part of the investigation featured a wiretap that revealed one of the now-arrested individuals was talking about bombs. (NYPost, 06.11.24) Last week saw Harvard’s Graham Allison and Beacon Global Strategy’s Michael Morell warn in a commentary for FA that the U.S. faces “a serious threat of a terrorist attack in the months ahead,” indicated by, among other factors, the rising number of successful terrorist attacks, such as ISIS-K’s deadly raid of a concert hall outside Moscow in March.

Conflict in Syria:

  • No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

  • NATO’s €1 billion ($1.1 billion) technology fund backed a German company that makes self-driving robots for militaries, its second public investment into a startup. Munich-based ARX Robotics raised €9 million in seed financing, with over half coming from the NATO Innovation Fund or NIF, the company announced on June 10. (Bloomberg, 06.10.24)
  • U.S. tech giant Microsoft said Russian cyberattacks are becoming even “more aggressive” and warned that Moscow could deepen collaboration with U.S. adversaries in cyberspace, making it much harder to prevent intrusions. Hackers from Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Agency (SVR) are no longer disengaging from a computer environment once they are discovered but are doubling down. (RFE/RL, 06.12.24)
  • A growing number of U.S. adversaries, led by Russia, are looking to influence the 2024 presidential election through for-hire commercial firms and the use of generative artificial intelligence, American officials said on June 12. Russia poses the most serious threat in this election cycle, according to Office of the Director of National Intelligence officials. (Bloomberg, 06.12.24)

Energy exports from CIS:

  • Russia’s oil output will remain stable in the next five years despite international sanctions as state-run Rosneft PJSC starts producing at a major new Arctic project, according to the International Energy Agency. According to the IEA, the nation’s daily production is expected to average from 10.77 million barrels in 2025 to 10.83 million barrels in 2030. That’s still below the 11.09 million barrels a day pumped in 2022 when international sanctions were imposed on the industry in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 06.12.24)
    • Oil demand growth is set to peak by 2029 and start to contract the next year, reaching 105.4 million barrels a day in 2030 as the rollout of clean-energy technologies accelerates, according to EIA. Meanwhile, oil-production capacity is set to increase to nearly 113.8 million barrels a day, driven by producers in the U.S. and the Americas. (WSJ, 06.12.24)
  • The E.U. is proposing to sanction Russia’s oil-shipping giant Sovcomflot PJSC in a move to limit the Kremlin’s ability to finance its war against Ukraine, according to a document seen by Bloomberg. (Bloomberg, 06.11.24)
  • SCF Primorye, the first Russian oil tanker attempting to deliver crude while under U.S. sanctions, made a secret cargo transfer onto another ship, a sign of the lengths to which Moscow is going to undermine the effectiveness of American restrictions on its fleet. (Bloomberg, 06.10.24)
  • The German government is blocking the approval of a new E.U. anti-Russian sanctions package meant to curb current restrictions from being circumvented as well as the export of liquefied natural gas, DPA reported, citing diplomatic sources in Brussels. (TASS, 06.13.24)
  • Uniper SE was awarded more than €13 billion ($14 billion) in damages for Russian gas volumes not supplied by Gazprom PJSC since mid-2022. The German utility said an international arbitration ruling on June 7 allowed it to terminate Russian supply contracts, some of which ran until the middle of the next decade. (Bloomberg, 06.12.24)
  • Ukraine expects more European companies to use its gas storage by September despite ongoing Russian attacks, according to Oleksiy Chernyshov, chief executive officer of state-run Naftogaz. (Bloomberg, 06.11.24)

Climate change:

  • No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

  • No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

  • The Russian Prosecutor General’s office formally sent the case of imprisoned WSJ reporter Evan Gershkovich to court, accusing him of spying “on instructions from the CIA.” The case has been sent to Sverdlovsk Regional Court in Yekaterinburg. (Bloomberg, 06.13.24)


II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

  • The Kremlin continues efforts to codify legal instruments and repressive measures intended to broadly censor foreigners and foreign organizations in Russia. The Russian State Duma adopted a bill in its first reading on June 11 that seeks to codify the Russian government’s ability to recognize “any” foreign organization as “undesirable.” (ISW, 06.11.24)
  • A Russian-Ukrainian activist imprisoned on charges of plotting treason died in custody earlier this week, the U.S.-funded regional news outlet Sibir.Realii reported on June 14, citing the activist’s family. Igor Pokusin, 61, was arrested in May 2022 on suspicion of vandalizing pro-war banners in Abakan, the capital of Russia’s Siberian republic of Khakassia. (MT/AFP, 06.14.24)
  • A Moscow court on June 11 sentenced in absentia noted Russian lawyer and outspoken Kremlin critic Ilya Novikov to 8 1/5 years in prison on a charge of spreading false information about Russia’s military. (RFE/RL, 06.11.24)
  • A court in Russia’s North Caucasus region of Chechnya rejected a request by Zarema Musayeva, the imprisoned mother of three self-exiled outspoken Chechen opposition activists, for an early release over her state of health. (RFE/RL, 06.11.24)
  • A Moscow court on June 11 sentenced a 59-year-old resident to 10 days in jail for wearing a T-shirt emblazoned with Ukrainian symbols and the slogan “Glory to Ukraine.” (RFE/RL, 06.11.24)
  • A Moscow court on June 13 postponed until July 1 a hearing into imprisoned Kremlin critic Vladimir Kara-Murza’s appeal after the administration of a correctional colony in Siberia said he is no longer at the penitentiary. (RFE/RL, 06.13.24)
  • Imprisoned Russian opposition politician Ilya Yashin, who is serving an 8 1/2-year prison term for his criticism of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, says he will not agree to get exchanged for Russian citizens jailed in Western countries if such a proposal occurs. (RFE/RL, 06.12.24)
  • A Moscow court ruled on June 13 that the trial of theater director Yevgenia Berkovich and playwright Svetlana Petriichuk, who are charged with justifying terrorism, must continue behind closed doors due to unspecified “threats” received by a prosecution witness. (RFE/RL, 06.13.24)
  • A Russian court on June 13 sentenced blogger Vladislav Sinitsa to an additional 2 1/2 years in prison on extremism charges just ahead of his scheduled release on July 1. (RFE/RL, 06.13.24)
  • Russia’s Interior Ministry has added self-exiled television journalist Tatyana Lazareva to its wanted list on unspecified charges. (RFE/RL, 06.13.24)
  • Russian Field polled Russians in June 2024 to find out that almost three-quarters of respondents (73%) believe that Russia is currently moving in the right direction, and 18% believe that it is in the wrong direction. (RM, 06.14.24)

Defense and aerospace:

  • Russian Field polled Russians in June 2024 to find out that more than half of respondents (57%) reported that they would not support a second wave of mobilization, but more than a third (34%) would approve such a step. (RM, 06.14.24)
  • A Russian SU-34 bomber crashed in the Caucasus Mountains during a routine training flight, likely due to a technical malfunction, killing the crew aboard. (RFE/RL, 06.11.24)
  •  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

  • Kremlin newswire TASS reported on June 11 that the former Head of the Russian MoD Military Academy, Grigory Molchanov, was appointed Deputy Secretary of the Russian Security Council. (ISW, 06.11.24)
  • Russian authorities arrested Tyumen Oblast Deputy Governor Vyacheslav Vakhrin on June 9, Republic of Karelia Legislative Assembly Head of the Committee on Budget and Taxes Vitaly Krasulin on May 29, Oryol Oblast Gubernatorial Advisor Sergei Lezhnev on May 27, and Krasnodar Krai Deputy Governor Sergei Vlasov on May 24 for various fraud and bribery charges. (ISW, 06.09.24)
  • A military court in Moscow on June 10 sentenced the former owner of the Saturn soccer club, Oleg Medvedev, to life in prison on charges of murder, banditry, and the organization of a criminal group. Medvedev is a kingpin, a person who holds the highest position in the criminal hierarchy in the former Soviet Union: thief-in-law. (RFE/RL, 06.10.24)
  • A court in the Russian Urals region of Orenburg on June 11 sentenced a former Wagner mercenary group fighter to 18 years in prison for stabbing to death his friend’s mother, attempting to murder his friend, and theft. (RFE/RL, 06.11.24)


III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including  relations with “far abroad” countries:

  • On June 14, Vladimir Putin said in a televised speech before the Foreign Ministry’s top officials: “Obviously, we are witnessing the collapse of the Euro-Atlantic security system. Today, it simply isn’t there. It actually needs to be created anew… we believe that the time has come to begin a broad discussion of a new system of bilateral and multilateral guarantees of collective security in Eurasia.” (RM, 06.14.24)
  • On June 14, Vladimir Putin said in a televised speech before the Foreign Ministry’s top officials: “Now Russia’s relations with the E.U. and with a number of European states have deteriorated. If Europe wants to maintain itself as one of the independent centers of world development and cultural and civilizational poles of the planet, it certainly needs to be in good, kind relations with Russia, and for us, the main thing is to be ready for it.” (RM, 06.14.24)
  • Russia has hailed gains for far-right parties in the E.U. elections following a poor showing for some of Ukraine’s strongest supporters in Europe. Dmitry Medvedev, a former stand-in president for Putin and now his deputy on Russia’s Security Council, said on June 10 that the results reflected France and Germany’s “inept policy of providing support to [Ukraine] at the cost of your own citizens.” Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, said rightwing parties would soon “step on the heels” of Ukraine’s supporters in the European parliament. (FT, 06.10.24)
  • The U.N. Security Council on June 10 adopted a U.S.-backed cease-fire plan for the Gaza Strip with only Russia abstaining, a sign of the growing frustration among the world’s major powers over the war and the desire to bring it to an end. (NYT, 06.11.24)
    • The parents of a dual Russian-Israeli citizen who had been taken hostage at the start of the Gaza war and who was rescued in an operation by Israeli forces on June 8 flew to Israel on June 9 to be reunited with their son. Andrei Kozlov, 27, was one of four hostages rescued in the operation in the town of Nuseirat after being held for 246 days by Hamas. (RFE/RL, 06.09.24)
  • A nuclear-powered Russian submarine and three warships are visiting Cuba. 
    • The vessels practiced hitting targets with long-distance missiles in simulated drills in the Atlantic Ocean ahead of the visit to Cuba. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said today that naval exercises were common. “This is a normal practice for all states, including such a large maritime power as Russia,” he told reporters. “So we don’t see any reason to worry in this case.” (Sky News, 06.13.24, Bloomberg, 06.11.24)
    • The U.S. Defense Department has been tracking the Russian visit to Cuba since it was announced June 6. U.S. Navy and Coast Guard vessels are “going to continue to monitor,” Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said on June 12. ABC News reported that three U.S. Navy destroyers, a Coast Guard Cutter and Canadian and French frigates were keeping watch. Singh said the Russian exercises didn’t pose a threat to the United States. “This is not a surprise,” she said. Such “routine naval visits” by the Russians, she said, have occurred “during different administrations.” (WP, 06.13.24)
    • Former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said at the Futurist Summit with regard to Russian warships’ voyage to Cuba: “I suspect it has something to do with the United States saying to Ukraine that you can use U.S.-produced weapons to fire into mainland Russia—you know, in the vicinity of Kharkiv and fire into Belgrade and that sort of thing. And I suspect that the Russians come up with some clever plan to say, okay, well, we can do something on your border, as well.”  (WP, 06.13.24)
  • A Polish court decided on June 13 that a second man suspected of attacking Leonid Volkov, an exiled top aide to late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, will not be extradited to Lithuania, after taking the same stance on the other man last week The court said they should not be sent to Lithuania as there are wider proceedings against them taking place in Poland. (Reuters, 06.13.24)
  • The Czech Republic accused Russia of organizing and financing a failed arson attack by a foreigner who tried to set public buses on fire in Prague last week. (Bloomberg, 06.10.24)[1]
  • A Russian intelligence operative who’s leading a Kremlin disinformation campaign in Africa has helped run influence operations in Europe for years. Artem Kureyev, identified as a Russian Federal Security Service agent in an Estonian court case in 2022, has had frequent contacts with at least half a dozen European journalists (Bloomberg, 06.11.24)
  • Danish authorities arrested an unidentified woman with dual Danish-Russian citizenship related to a recent investigation into the woman’s connections to Russian foreign intelligence. (ISW, 06.11.24)
  • On June 14, Italy arrested a Russian national suspected of helping the son of a former regional governor in Russia escape house arrest while awaiting extradition to the United States on charges of illegally exporting military technology. The Russian national allegedly arranged for Artyom Uss — the son of ex-Krasnoyarsk region Governor Aleksandr Uss — to flee Italy in March 2023, the day after an Italian court ordered his extradition to the U.S. (MT/AFP, 06.14.24)
  • Austria annulled the accreditation of two correspondents working for Russia’s TASS news agency in April “due to a negative security assessment by the security authorities,” the Interior Ministry said. (RFE/RL, 06.12.24)
  • Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin praised security cooperation with Russia, emphasizing continued mutual support on the international stage, in a statement on June 11. Vulin, the former head of intelligence services, made the comments following a meeting with Russian Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev in Moscow. (MT/AFP, 06.11.24)


  • Ukraine’s central bank delivered a third straight cut to borrowing costs as policymakers weigh the economic impact of Russian attacks on the nation’s energy sector. The National Bank of Ukraine lowered its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 13% on June 13. (Bloomberg, 06.13.24)
  • A U.S. company has signed the first significant deal to supply liquefied natural gas to Ukraine in a move designed to bolster its energy security and reduce Moscow’s energy dominance in Eastern Europe. The move by U.S. exporter Venture Global is the latest step towards meeting a big goal of the Biden administration — to increase energy exports to eastern Europe and, in the process, reduce Russia’s power in the region following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. (FT, 06.13.24)
  • Ukraine’s Energoatom and France’s EDF sign a cooperation agreement to study EDF’s gigawatt-scale EPR and Nuward small modular reactor technologies as well as “exchange of experience in the operation of nuclear power plants, maintenance of safety, reliability and efficiency of reactors.” (WNN, 06.10.24)
  • Ukrainian law enforcement officers in Bukovina detained a former official of the district military recruitment office, who was transferring men across the border to Romania for $5,000. (, 06.11.24)
  • Ukrainian law enforcers are investigating the case of misappropriation of money by Kyiv prosecutor, Vladimir Vinnikov. The prosecutor supervised the criminal proceedings of a private enterprise, and during searches in this case, UAH 4.242 million was seized from the businessman. The prosecutor took them for himself. (, 06.13.24)

Russia’s other post-Soviet neighbors:

  • A wave of Russian tourists has brought cash, too. Russians have opened at least three times more businesses in Georgia since 2022 than in the previous 27 years combined. In Kazakhstan, Russia now accounts for 41% of foreign-owned firms, up from 32% in 2021. (The Economist, 06.13.24.)
  • Belarus delivered advanced weapons to Armenia’s arch-enemy Azerbaijan even though both countries were supposedly allies in a Russian-led international defense pact, according to leaked documents seen by Politico. The decision by Belarus to supply advanced military hardware to Azerbaijan between 2018 and 2022, giving it the upper hand in a spate of wars with its long-standing rival, will have been regarded as a bitter betrayal by Armenia. On June 12, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced his government would begin the process of withdrawing from the CSTO bloc, claiming its members were “not fulfilling their contractual obligations, but are planning a war against us with Azerbaijan. (Politico, 06.13.24)
  • The Armenian National Assembly will likely hold an emergency session by June 17, during which the Armenian opposition parties will demand the resignation of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his cabinet. (ISW, 06.10.24)
  • On June 12, Russian peacekeepers completed their withdrawal from Karabakh. (MT/AFP, 06.12.24)
  • The U.S., U.K., and Canada have accused Russia of plotting to influence the outcome of Moldova’s presidential election in the autumn and warned that Moscow would seek to incite unrest if its preferred candidate does not win. (FT, 06.13.24)


IV. Quotable and notable

  • Russian lawmaker Alexei Pushkov: Most of Russia’s AI programs are repackaged models originally created in the West. If you ask one of these Rusprogs who created you, it’d be a sincere answer: “I was created by the OpenAI corporation.” (, 06.05.24)



  1. An explosion occurred at the MESKO arms factory in the Polish city of Skarzysko-Kamienna, killing a 59-year-old employee of the company. MESKO produces Piorun man-portable anti-aircraft missile systems, which are in service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine. (Istories, 06.10.24) It remained unclear as of June 13 whether Russia may have had a role in this.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 11:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

White House photo available in the public domain.