5 Things to Know

1. Since last autumn, Ukraine’s armed forces have been going steadily backward and things have become “very difficult” for the ZSU. This follows from Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi’s interview with the Guardian. In the interview, Syrskyi acknowledged that the Ukrainian forces are outgunned and outmanned, warning that Moscow plans to boost its fighting force in Ukraine to 690,000 by the end of 2024. Syrskyi insisted, however, that Russia’s recent creeping advances were “tactical” ones—local gains. The latter included this week the capture of Pishchane in the Kharkiv region and Prohres in the Donetsk region. The Russian military claimed control of these settlements on July 21, and Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT project’s map then appeared to show Russian forces in control of them as of July 25. The Russian Defense Ministry also claimed this week that its forces had captured the villages of Andriivka in the eastern Luhansk region and Ivano-Dariivka in the Donetsk region, but the DeepState OSINT project’s map showed Russian forces not in full control of either Andriivka or Ivano-Dariivka as of July 25.
2. Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s top adviser Mykhailo Podolyak asserted this week that signing an agreement with Russia to stop the war with Ukraine would amount to signing a deal with the devil. It remains unclear how Podolyak’s July 25 comments can be reconciled with Zelenskyy’s recent announcement that a second Ukraine peace summit should include officials from Russia. In addition to Podolyak’s comments, expectations of Russian-Ukrainian peace talks have also been dimmed by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s statement to his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba in Beijing on July 24 that the time was “not yet ripe” for peace talks to end the war. Meanwhile, former president Donald Trump told Fox News that he had told Zelenskyy the following: “This is a war machine you're facing. That’s what they (the Russians) do they fight wars. They beat Hitler. They beat Napoleon.” “We got to get this war over with,” Trump told Zelenskyy, according to Reuters.
3. Russia and China have flown a joint strategic bomber patrol near Alaska for the first time, according to FT. U.S. and Canadian fighter jets detected, tracked and intercepted two Russian Tu-95 and two Chinese H-6 aircraft on July 24. The interception occurred three days after Russia said it scrambled its own fighter jets as two U.S. strategic bombers approached Russia’s border at the Barents Sea in the Arctic, according to RFE/RL. It’s “not a surprise to us,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said of the Russian-Chinese patrol, according to Bloomberg. Austin’s comments came less than a week after the Pentagon had unveiled a new Arctic Strategy that commits the U.S. to expanding its military readiness and surveillance in the region because of heightened Chinese and Russian interest coupled with new risks brought on by accelerating climate change, Bloomberg reported.
4. Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the U.S. presidential race and support his VP Kamala Harris has Russian influentials divided on whether a Democrat can defeat the GOP’s DonaldTrump in November, according to RM’s review of commentary by Russian influentials on this development. Boris Mezhuev, a Moscow-based political scientist, told pro-Kremlin portal Vzglyad in reference to Harris: “I think her prospects can be described as positive. The gap in ratings with Donald Trump is only a few percent.” According to Russian foreign policy veteran Sen. Alexey Pushkov, however, “in the battle for the presidency, Trump defeated Biden ahead of schedule.” Pushkov’s colleague, and deputy chairman of the Russian Senate, Konstantin Kosachev, also believes Trump is more likely to win. In contrast, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that “nothing good can be expected” when asked what the Kremlin expects from the U.S. presidential elections.
5. Real wages have grown by almost 14% in Russia, and the consumption of goods and services by around 25%, FT reported, citing the Russian state statistics agency. A further bump in real wages of up to 3.5% is expected this year, alongside an expected 3% jump in real disposable income, according to Russia’s Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, again as cited by FT’s article, “Russia’s surprising consumer boom.”

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• The nuclear safety and security situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) remains highly challenging during the military conflict, including efforts to ensure adequate maintenance of key safety systems and other vital equipment, Director General Rafael Grossi of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said. Elsewhere in Ukraine, IAEA experts present at the Khmelnytskyy, Rivne and South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plants and the Chornobyl site reported that nuclear safety and security is being maintained despite the effects of the ongoing conflict. The teams continued to report air raid alarms heard from the sites. (IAEA, 07.26.24)
• Kyrgyzstan ratified an agreement with Russia for the mass decontamination of radioactive areas that pose a threat to the local population. The former Soviet republic is still suffering the environmental consequences of uranium and other heavy metals mining during the Soviet era. Ninety-two sites contain more than 300 million cubic meters of toxic and radioactive waste. (MT/AFP, 07.24.24)
• According to the inter-governmental agreement between Russia and China signed in June 2018, Russia will supply fuel for China's CFR-600 reactor during its entire life cycle. (Fissilematerials.org, 07.25.24)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• North Korea’s economy roared back to life as arms transfers with Russia provided support for Kim Jong Un’s regime, allowing the leader to shun diplomacy as he ramped up his threats against the U.S. and South Korea. North Korea’s gross domestic product expanded 3.1% in 2023 from a year earlier. The heavy and chemical industries led the economic growth, expanding by 8.1% from a year earlier, the Bank of Korea said. While the report didn’t say whether those industries engaged in any arms manufacturing, it noted an increase in the production of primary metals, which may include iron, steel, copper, nickel and aluminum. (Bloomberg, 07.25.24)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• No significant developments.

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Ukraine’s parliamentary human rights commissioner said the “vast majority” of Ukrainian prisoners who have been returned to the country in exchanges with Russia said they had no communication with representatives of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) while they were being held. (RFE/RL, 07.21.24)
• Russia has now knocked out or captured more than half of Ukraine’s domestic electricity generating capacity, forcing energy companies to impose rolling nationwide blackouts that have left homes and businesses without electricity for up to 20 hours a day. (FT, 07.25.24)
• Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers has approved the decision to secure a $3.9 billion grant from the United States. The funds will be channeled through the structures of the World Bank, according to Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal during a government meeting. (RBC.ua, 07.23.24)
• The work of those who guide people coping with acute grief has grown in importance in war-torn Ukraine, where death has become a daily reality since the Russian invasion. Such people are known as death doulas. Courses have been introduced to train death doulas with the support of international and local organizations, although it remains an unregulated profession.  (NYT, 07.24.24)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:¹

• On the night of July 19-20, Russia attacked energy transmission facilities in the north and center of Ukraine with drones overnight, causing temporary power cuts for households and industrial producers. Separately, UAVs from Ukraine targeted the large Millerovo air field in the Rostov region, which is a base for Russian fighter jets. Some 26 drones were destroyed overnight by Russia’s air defense, Rostov Gov. Vasily Golubev said on Telegram, adding that there were no casualties. (Bloomberg, 07.20.24)
• On July 20, Russia continued its assault on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, with drones and missiles targeting facilities throughout the country. Kharkiv region Gov. Oleh Synyehubov said Iskander missiles killed two people and injured three in the eastern region. Ukraine’s Air Force said that its air defenses shot down 13 of 17 Russian drones across five regions. RFE/RL, 07.20.24)
• On July 21, Russia said that its forces had captured two frontline villages in Ukraine, Andriivka in the eastern Luhansk region and Pishchane in the northeast Kharkiv region. Also on that day Ukraine’s troops withdrew from the village of Prohres in the Donetsk region. (MT/AFP, 07.21.24, Bloomberg, 07.21.24)
• On July 22, Russia's military said that its forces had downed 75 Ukrainian drones overnight. Air defense systems intercepted 47 drones over Rostov, 17 over the Black and Azov seas and 11 in other areas including one over the border region of Belgorod, according to the Russian Defense Ministry. On July 22, Rosneft PJSC’s major Tuapse refinery in southern Russia caught fire after a Ukrainian drone attack. (Bloomberg, 07.22.24, MT/AFP, 07.22.24)
• On July 23, Russia's military said its troops "liberated" the settlement of Ivano-Dariivka in the Donetsk region. (MT/AFP, 07.23.24)
• On July 23, a Russian ballistic missile attack on northeastern Ukraine’s Kharkiv region killed dozens of Western military instructors, Russian state media claimed on July 23, citing Russia’s Defense Ministry. (MT/AFP, 07.23.24)
• On July 23, a Ukrainian drone attack on a ferry port in southern Russia killed at least one person and injured five others, Russian state media reported, citing emergency services. According to regional authorities, several drones targeted a passenger ship at Port Kavkaz in the Krasnodar region. (MT/AFP, 07.23.24)
• On July 24, Ukrainian forces blunted one of the largest Russian mechanized assaults in Ukraine since October 2023 in western Donetsk Oblast. Geolocated footage published on July 24 shows that Ukrainian forces stopped a reinforced battalion size Russian mechanized assault near Kostyantynivka (southwest of Donetsk City) after Russian forces advanced up to the southeastern outskirts of the settlement. A Ukrainian brigade operating in the Kurakhove direction reported that Russian forces attacked simultaneously with 11 tanks, 45 armored combat vehicles, a rare "Terminator" armored fighting vehicle (of which Russia has reportedly manufactured only 23 as of December 2023), 12 motorcycles and roughly 200 personnel from several tactical directions at dawn on July 24. (ISW, 07.25.24)
• On July 25, Russia attacked the Ukrainian Danube port of Izmayil for the second day in a row, damaging infrastructure critical for Kyiv's grain exports, while in neighboring Romania, NATO scrambled F-18 warplanes as drone debris was found near the border with Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 07.25.24)
• On July 25, one man was killed and two others were injured in a Ukrainian attack on the town of Shebekino in southwestern Russia’s Belgorod region, officials said. (MT/AFP, 07.25.24)
• On the night of July 25-26, Ukrainian armed forces struck the Saki airfield in Crimea. (Interfax, 07.26.24, Ukrainska Pravda, 07.26.24)
• On the night of July 25-26, explosions were reported near Russia’s Saky airfield in occupied Crimea after an apparent Ukrainian ATACMS missile and drone attack. Witnesses described hearing the powerful sound of detonating ammunition at the military base in the early hours of July 26 morning. The air base is home to Russia's 43rd Fighter Aviation Regiment, which supports Russian troops in southern Ukraine and operates Su-24 bombers and Su-30 fighters. (Telegraph, 05.26.24, RFE/RL, 07.26.24)
• On July 26, Ukrainian air defenses said they shot down 20 of the 22 drones launched by Russia at targets in four of its regions. (RFE/RL, 07.26.24)
• Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief acknowledges the Russians are much better resourced. They have more of everything: tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, soldiers. Their original 100,000-strong invasion force has grown to 520,000, he said, with a goal by the end of 2024 of 690,000 men. The figures for Ukraine have not been made public. “When it comes to equipment, there is a ratio of 1:2 or 1:3 in their favor,” he said. Since 2022 the number of Russian tanks has “doubled” – from 1,700 to 3,500. Artillery systems have tripled, and armored personnel carriers gone up from 4,500 to 8,900. “The enemy has a significant advantage in force and resources,” Syrskyi said. “Therefore, for us, the issue of supply, the issue of quality, is really at the forefront.” (The Guardian, 07.24.24)
  • Since last autumn Ukraine’s armed forces have been going steadily backward. Syrskyi admitted things were “very difficult.” He described Russia’s creeping victories as “tactical” ones – local gains rather than an “operational” breakthrough, such as the capture of a major city. (The Guardian, 07.24.24)
  • Syrskyi estimates that daily Russian losses exceed 1,000. (NI, 07.24.24)
• Serhiy Fursa, an economist and deputy director of Dragon Capital, an investment firm in Kyiv, projected that the mobilization of 200,000 to 300,000 new soldiers would reduce Ukraine’s economic growth by about 0.5 %. (WP, 07.24.24)
• Secretary of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence Roman Kostenko said that 3,800 prisoners have already been mobilized into the Defense Forces. (Korrespondent.net, 07.23.24)
• Authorities in Moscow offered to pay a huge new bonus to recruits willing to join Russia’s war in Ukraine. A decree issued July 23 by Mayor Sergei Sobyanin pledged to pay 1.9 million rubles ($22,000) to volunteers who sign military contracts. That’s in addition to 600,000 rubles paid annually in monthly instalments by the city government to supplement wages and bonuses offered by the Russian Defense Ministry. (Bloomberg, 07.23.24)
• On July 12, Russia’s defense minister Andrei Belousov called U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III to claim that the Russians had detected a Ukrainian covert operation in the works against Russia that they believed had the Americans’ blessing. Was the Pentagon aware of the plot, Belousov asked Austin, and its potential to ratchet up tensions between Moscow and Washington? Pentagon officials were surprised by the allegation and unaware of any such plot, two U.S. officials said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the confidential phone call. But whatever Belousov revealed, all three officials said, it was taken seriously enough that the Americans contacted the Ukrainians and said, essentially, if you’re thinking about doing something like this, don’t. (NYT, 07.26.24)
• Ukraine's Security Service said on July 25 that its officers, along with the National Police, had prevented a series of terrorist attacks in the country and in EU member states Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. (RFE/RL, 07.25.24)
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on July 25 that an 18-year-old suspect in the shooting death of former lawmaker Iryna Farion, w ho was known for campaigns promoting the Ukrainian language, was detained in the eastern city of Dnipro. Ihor Klymenko, Ukraine’s interior minister, did not rule out the possibility of Russian involvement  (RFE/RL, 07.25.24, NYT, 07.25.24)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• Officials in Kyiv have spent months gaming out what Donald Trump’s victory could mean for their war against Russia. “The first eight or ten months, basically all of 2025, would be very hard,” a senior Ukrainian official tells Time, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. Trump would be likely to slash aid to Ukraine and push Zelenskyy to accept a peace deal skewed heavily in Russia’s favor. (Time, 07.24.24)
• One crucial priority for Joe Biden will be to ensure that he guarantees as much support as he can for Ukraine in case of a Trump win in November. Officials and analysts said it was unlikely that the administration could push through another package of aid for Kyiv before the end of Biden’s term — earlier this year Congress passed a $61 billion aid package that was meant to last until early 2025. But the president can ensure that bilateral deals with Ukraine are completed and push any aid that is available to Kyiv before his term ends. (FT, 07.23.24)
• Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala said that the Czech Republic will supply Ukraine with about 500 thousand ammunition by the end of 2024 as part of its initiative. (Korrespondent, 07.24.24)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• Defying sanctions, Russia has obtained nearly $4 billion in restricted chips since the war began in Ukraine. Many were shipped through a cluster of shell companies in Hong Kong. (NYT, 07.25.24)
  • Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on July 25 visited Hong Kong and called on its leader to prevent Russia from using Hong Kong to circumvent Western sanctions imposed on Moscow for its full-scale war in Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 07.25.24)
• On July 26, The EU transferred $1.6 billion in frozen Russian assets held by central securities depositories to Ukraine for military and reconstruction support against Russia's invasion. (UPI, 07.26.24)
• The EU has presented member states with two options to freeze Russian Central Bank assets for a longer period of time. The two options are an open-ended immobilization of the assets that would be reviewed at regular intervals, or lengthening the roll-over period to, for example, 18, 24 or 36 months. (Bloomberg, 07.23.24)
• UniCredit SpA “prudentially set aside” €228 million ($247 million) of funds related to the decision by a Russian court to seize assets in the country, Chief Executive Officer Andrea Orcel said in an interview. (Bloomberg, 07.24.24)
• Russia has banned the head of Toyota and 12 other senior Japanese business figures from entering the country. The list, published by Russia's Foreign Ministry on July 23, includes Toyota chairman Akio Toyoda, Rakuten chief Hiroshi Mikitani and Akihiko Tanaka, president of the government-backed Japan International Cooperation Agency. The decision was a “response to Japan's ongoing sanctions against our country in connection with the special military operation,” the foreign ministry statement said. (MT/AFP, 07.24.24)
• After Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 prompted Western governments to unleash an avalanche of economic sanctions against Russian oligarchs, there are now multiple superyachts like Phi, owned by Russian businessman Sergei Naumenko, trapped in ports around the world. Several are stuck in seemingly never-ending legal quagmires, with vastly expensive lawyers hired by often opaque offshore owners battling for their release. (FT, 07.20.24)
• Ukraine's High Anti-Corruption Court approved the Justice Ministry's claim to nationalize a manufacturing enterprise belonging to Russian oligarch Viktor Kononov worth more than Hr 2 billion ($48.4 million), the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said on July 25. (Kyiv Independent, 07.26.24) 

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his Ukrainian counterpart the time was “not yet ripe” for peace talks to end the war with Russia. Speaking during the first visit to China by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba since Russia invaded his nation in 2022, Wang said a path laid out by Beijing together with Brazil in May for resolving the war had won “extensive support” around the world. China believes the “resolution of all disputes must be achieved through political means,” Wang said, according to a government statement July 24. (Bloomberg, 07.24.24)
• Signing an agreement with Russia to stop the war with Ukraine would amount to signing a deal with the devil, top adviser to Zelenskyy Mykhailo Podolyak said. A deal would only buy time for Putin to strengthen his army and usher in another, potentially more violent chapter in the war, he said. Podolyak’s July 25 comments came 10 days after Zelenskyy’s announcement that a second Ukraine peace summit should include officials from Russia. (WP/AP, 07.26.24, RM, 07.26.24)
  • Zelenskyy faces a politically fraught time as the November presidential election in the U.S. looms, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said in an interview with Italy’s Corriere della Sera. “Should we continue the war with new deaths and destruction, or should we consider a territorial compromise with Putin?” Klitschko asked. “No matter what step he takes, our president risks ending his life by political suicide.” Klitschko added that Zelenskyy would likely “have to resort to a referendum” to resolve the dilemma, adding it is not possible to make such a decision “without popular legitimacy.” To read the original story by RFE/RL’s Ukrainian Service, click here. (RFE/RL, 07.21.24)
• “Russia is generally open to the negotiation process, but we first need to understand if the Ukrainian side is ready,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. “From a practical point of view, we’re open to achieving our goals through negotiations,” Peskov added, referring to the Kremlin’s demands for Ukraine to give up four regions partially occupied by Russian troops and drop its ambitions to join NATO. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said July 24 while visiting China that Kyiv was prepared to negotiate with Moscow when it shows “good faith.” (MT/AFP, 07.25.24)
  • Peskov’s statements, contrary to inaccurate reporting by select Western outlets, did not indicate that Russia is ready to negotiate with Zelenskyy, but rather that the Kremlin remains committed to its false narrative that Russia cannot negotiate with Zelenskyy, as Zelenskyy is supposedly Ukraine’s “illegitimate” president. (ISW, 07.25.24)
• The Kremlin on July 26 welcomed Donald Trump’s comments on Russia being “a war machine” that had defeated Napoleon and Hitler, but said it was not wearing rose-tinted spectacles when it came to the U.S. Republican presidential candidate. Peskov was responding to a question about comments Trump said he had made to Zelenskyy in a phone call on July 19. Trump told Fox News later that he had told Zelenskyy that the war needed to be brought to an end. “This is a war machine you're facing. That’s what they (the Russians) do they fight wars. They beat Hitler. They beat Napoleon. We got to get this war over with,” said Trump. (Reuters, 07.26.24)
• The EU must remain committed to its policy that any talks about ending the war in Ukraine should be led by the government in Kyiv, Portuguese Foreign Minister Paulo Rangel said. (Bloomberg, 07.24.24)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Russia and China have flown a joint strategic bomber patrol near Alaska for the first time, highlighting the growing scale and capability of a military partnership that has raised growing concern among the U.S. and its allies. U.S. and Canadian fighter jets detected, tracked and intercepted two Russian TU-95 and two Chinese H-6 aircraft late on July 24, according to the North American Aerospace Defense Command (Norad), under which the U.S. and Canada jointly operate satellites, radars and fighters. (FT, 07.25.24)
  • It’s “not a surprise to us,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said July 25. The defense chief said that U.S. Northern Command and the North American Aerospace Defense Command followed the planes “very closely,” but they stayed in international airspace, some 200 miles (322 kilometers) off the coast of Alaska. (Bloomberg, 07.25.24)
• The U.S. will expand its military readiness and surveillance in the Arctic given heightened Chinese and Russian interest coupled with new risks brought on by accelerating climate change, the Pentagon said in a new report. Measures are needed “to ensure the Arctic does not become a strategic blind spot” as melting ice makes the region more accessible economically and militarily, according to the Defense Department’s 2024 Arctic Strategy released July 22. (Bloomberg, 07.22.24)
  • U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks on July 22 said China was seeking “greater influence” in the Arctic region, and that there was “growing cooperation between the PRC [People's Republic of China] and Russia in the Arctic,” something she described as “troubling.” (WP, 07.25.24)
• Romania’s Defense Ministry said early on July 24 that it scrambled fighter jets overnight as the Russian military carried out a series of drone attacks near its shared border with southern Ukraine. The defense ministry said in a statement that two F-16 aircraft took off at 2:19 a.m. local time from the 86th Borcea Air Base, located around 126 kilometers east of the capital Bucharest. (MT/AFP, 07.24.24)
• Russia said on July 21 that it scrambled fighter jets to prevent two U.S. strategic bombers from crossing its border over the Barents Sea in the Arctic. As the Russian fighters approached, the American strategic bombers corrected their flight course, moving away, and then turning away from Russia’s state border,” Russia’s Defense Ministry said. (RFE/RL, 07.21.24)
• On July 24 Russia’s military said July 24 that it scrambled a Su-27 fighter jet to prevent three British warplanes from entering Russian airspace over the Black Sea. A Su-27 identified the “three air targets” as a U.K. Royal Air Force RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft and two Typhoon fighter planes, Russia’s Defense Ministry said in a statement. (MT/AFP, 07.24.24)
• On July 26 Finland said a Russian ship is suspected of a territorial violation in the eastern Gulf of Finland. The breach of territorial integrity occurred on July 26 in the afternoon and is under investigation by the Border Guard, according to a statement by the Defense Ministry. (Bloomberg, 07.26.24)
• Warships from Russia's Baltic Fleet will make a port visit to Havana on July 27-30, Russian news agencies reported, citing Cuba’s Defense Ministry, the second such visit this year. The RIA Novosti state news agency said the training ship Smolny, the patrol frigate Neustrashimy (Fearless), and the refueling tanker Yelnya would take part in the visit and that Russian sailors would meet the head of the Cuban Navy. (RFE/RL, 07.25.24)
• Gen. Laura Richardson, the head of U.S. Southern Command has urged American leaders to develop a comprehensive economic aid program for Latin America, akin to the post-World War II Marshall Plan, in a bid to counteract growing Chinese and Russian influence in the region. (BNE, 07.25.24)
• Advisers for Donald Trump have floated the idea of demanding NATO allies spend 3% of gross domestic product on defense, a higher target than alliance members have agreed to and a warning shot that signals even more tension if he returns to the White House. (Bloomberg, 07.23.24)
  • Estonia plans to raise defense spending to 4% of gross domestic product, one of the highest levels in NATO, over the next two years to buy ammunition and bolster national security after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 07.24.24)
  • Long seen as punching below its weight, Canada, the world’s second-largest country by area and one of its seven wealthiest economies, said it would meet its NATO pledge to significantly bolster its military spending by 2032. (NYT, 07.21.24)
• The British army has three years to prepare for war, according to its new chief, as he announced an ambitious reform program to get the force fighting fit for modern warfare. General Sir Roly Walker said on July 23 that there was an urgent need to modernize the British army because of the “converging geopolitical threats” of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. (FT, 07.24.24)
  • In April, General Sir Nick Carter, an ex-army chief, told Parliament that the army had calculated it would need 82,000 troops just to generate a single “warfighting” division. Manpower is not the only issue. RUSI estimates that deploying a single armored brigade would absorb 70-80% of the army’s engineering capabilities for crossing rivers or minefields. (The Economist, 07.25.24)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Russia’s first oil shipment of the year is traveling through the nation’s Northern Sea Route to China, with more vessels expected to follow suit. The 2,500-mile shipping route, which traverses waters off the Siberian tundra, is typically only used during summer months when ice conditions are less severe. (Bloomberg, 07.24.24)

Missile defense:

• As Russian missiles and drones pound Ukrainian cities, Europe is scrambling to retool. Germany, usually a defense laggard, is leading efforts to rearm. In August 2022, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a plan to jointly procure air-defense systems. Fully 21 countries have joined, enticed by the potential economies of scale. The hope is that cooperation will eventually stretch to logistics, maintenance and training. “It’s about cutting costs and quickly acquiring capabilities,” says Fabian Hoffmann of the University of Oslo. (The Economist, 07.25.24)
• A group of ambitious Ukrainian techies formed an outfit called Technari to develop an alternative system, known as ePPO, for detecting and tracking Russian aerial attacks. Gennady Suldin, a co-founder, describes it as “human radar.” Consisting of a smartphone app and an artificial intelligence (AI) model, it allows verified Ukrainian citizens to report flying objects they see or hear with the push of a button. It has proved stunningly effective. Several other outfits are already operating networks of microphones that relay sounds to Ukrainian air-defense operators. (The Economist, 07.25.24)

Nuclear arms:

• The information published on the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) website today shows that the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile as of September 2023 included 3,748 nuclear warheads, only 40 warheads off FAS’ estimate of 3,708 warheads. The information also shows that the U.S. last year dismantled only 69 retired nuclear warheads, the lowest number since 1994. (FAS, 07.20.24)
• At the second session of the preparatory committee for the Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) currently under way in Geneva, five nuclear-armed states justified the lack of progress in nuclear disarmament. Russia’s position was underlined by Mikhail Kondratenkov, Deputy Director of the Department for Non-Proliferation and Arms Control of Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, who argued there could be no progress on nuclear disarmament due to “persistent reluctance to properly correlate disarmament initiatives with the modern military-political and strategic context.” The U.S. accused Russia and China of unwillingness to discuss disarmament. China insisted the U.S. and Russia, holding 90% of the world's nuclear weapons, should lead disarmament. France and the UK offered vague commitments. (Kommersant, 07.25.24)

Counterterrorism:

• Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) announced July 22 that it dismantled a channel for smuggling explosives and detonators into St. Petersburg from Europe, allegedly intended for carrying out terrorist attacks. “The terrorist weapons were transported in several packages in stages from Italy and Germany and were hidden in spare car parts,” the law enforcement agency said in a statement. (MT/AFP, 07.22.24)

Conflict in Syria:

• Putin met his Syrian counterpart Bashar Al-Assad this week, the Kremlin said. “I am very interested in your opinion on how the situation in the region as a whole is developing,” Putin told Assad. “Unfortunately, there is a tendency toward escalation, we can see that. This applies directly to Syria.” The Syrian president said their talks were “very important” considering the events taking place in the world and in the Eurasian region. Assad last met the Russian leader in March 2023. (Bloomberg, 07.25.24)

Cyber security/AI: 

• Ukraine already employs AI to optimize functionality—for example if the link between drone and pilot is lost. But the use, Vadym Sukharevsky, the man in charge of Ukraine’s drones, says, is specialized and limited. “As a commander I will never relinquish the bulk of decision making to artificial intelligence… in the distant future we need such a decision, we’ll look at it carefully. But you don’t need AI to create swarms.” (The Economist, 07.25.24)
• Spanish authorities arrested three individuals accused of conducting cyberattacks as part of a prominent pro-Russian hacking group that consistently targets Ukraine and NATO states supporting Ukraine. The Spanish Civil Guard announced on July 20 that it arrested three unspecified individuals in Manacor, Balearic Islands, and the province of Andalusia for conducting distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks targeting state institutions and the strategic sectors of countries supporting Ukraine following the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion. (ISW, 07.20.24)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Russia loaded a fourth sanctioned tanker owned by state-run Sovcomflot PJSC, testing the resolve of Group of Seven nations who’re attempting to clamp down on the fleet of ships moving Moscow’s oil. The Viktor Bakaev left the Baltic Sea port of Primorsk on Sunday, hauling a cargo of about 730,000 barrels of Urals crude. (Bloomberg, 07.24.24)
• Russia plans to make extra crude production cuts to compensate for pumping above its OPEC+ quota in October and November this year, then between March and September of 2025. (Bloomberg, 07.24.24)
• Hungary and Slovakia asked the EU to help convince Ukraine to reinstate the transit of a major Russian oil supplier to Eastern Europe. Budapest and Bratislava are ready to take Ukraine to court to resolve the issue absent an agreement, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said after a gathering of EU foreign ministers in Brussels on July 22. Kyiv last month hardened sanctions against Lukoil PJSC, effectively prohibiting the firm from using Ukraine as a transit country for its crude. (Bloomberg, 07.22.24)
  • Slovakia said it could be forced to cut fuel exports to neighboring countries — including Ukraine — if the war-ravaged nation maintains sanctions that have cut the flow of piped crude from Russia. (Bloomberg, 07.23.24)
  • Hungary has until September to resolve a dispute with Ukraine over the transit of crude from a major Russian oil supplier before fuel shortages set in, according to Gergely Gulyas, the minister in charge of the prime minister’s office. He accused Ukraine of “blackmail.” (Bloomberg, 07.26.24)
• Russia raised gas production by 8.2% in the first half of the year, as exports to Europe and China increased and demand strengthened at home. The nation produced 345.8 billion cubic meters of gas in the six months through June, according to Bloomberg (Bloomberg, 07.24.24)
• Europe still contends with China for the title of top buyer of Gazprom PJSC’s pipeline gas. Gazprom’s pipeline gas supplies to its few remaining clients in Europe reached 14.6 billion cubic meters from January to June. That’s sharply lower than the annual sales of some 130 billion to 175 billion cubic meters to the region seen before the invasion. Yet it’s comparable to 15.2 billion cubic meters the Russian gas behemoth sent to China over the first half of this year (Bloomberg, 07.23.24)
• Mysterious buyers with suspected links to Russia have begun amassing dozens of vessels capable of carrying liquefied natural gas, in moves that suggest Moscow is expanding its “dark fleet” of energy tankers. Shipping industry insiders say a clutch of previously unknown companies, largely registered in the U.A.E., have rapidly acquired LNG vessels over the past year, driving up market prices, especially for the oldest ships. Since the second quarter of 2023, more than 50 LNG vessels have changed ownership to companies located in the UAE, according to Windward, (FT, 07.21.24)
• Azerbaijan has accused the EU of treating the country as a “firefighter” by only committing to short-term gas deals despite asking the country to boost exports of the fuel to the bloc. (FT, 07.21.24)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Biden’s decision to drop out of the U.S. presidential race and support his VP Kamala Harris has Russian officials and scholars of U.S.-Russian relations divided on whether a Democrat candidate can defeat the GOP’s Donald Trump in November. 
  • Konstantin Kosachyov, deputy chairman of the Russian Senate, said that now that Biden has dropped out, the Republicans “will have to plan their campaign against a new candidate under a certain time pressure, and the previous achievements, like the TV debates won, have been totally devalued now.” “But Trump's advantage in principle hasn’t been devalued,” he said. “It looks like everything will be in the hands of Trump and his team,” Kosachyov said. (Interfax, 07.22.24)
  • Fyodor Lukyanov, editor in chief of the journal Russia in Global Affairs; chairman of Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy said: “When it comes to Russian interests, we have no reason to be sad because of Biden. He personally had a hand in the Ukrainian story like no one else did. ... However, in fairness, it is worth noting that he was not the worst option as a counterpart in a tough confrontation. He is very experienced, fairly cautious and relatively rational. As long as Biden set the political course, it could be predicted. Those who will replace him cannot boast of all these qualities, so the degree of volatility... will increase.” (Rossiiskaya Gazeta/Russia in Global Affairs, 07.22.24)
  • Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Security Council, wrote in his Telegram channel: “Biden is done... We wish him health. The goals of the SVO [special military operation] will be achieved.” (RM, 07.22.24)
  • Boris Mezhuev, Russian political scientist, told pro-Kremlin analytical portal Vzglyad on July 22 in reference to Harris: “I think her prospects can be described as positive. The gap in ratings with Donald Trump is only a few percent.” (Vz.ru, 07.22.24)
  • Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s press secretary, told journalists: “Honestly, in recent years, what has been happening in the U.S. has taught us not to be surprised by anything. Therefore, we were not very surprised. ... [Joe Biden’s decision] is not our internal matter. … It’s not our place to make assessments. The issue should concern American voters, but not us. Yes, the prospects for Russian-American relations are important to us, but internal problems come first.” Peskov said that “nothing good can be expected” when asked what the Kremlin expects from the U.S. presidential elections. (Kommersant, 07.22.24, Vedomosti, 07.22.24)
  • Alexey Pushkov, Russian senator: “Today, in the battle for the presidency, Trump defeated Biden ahead of schedule. Biden did not leave on his own. He was forced out by his fellow Democrats because he had already lost the presidential race to Trump. By withdrawing his candidacy from the election, Biden admitted his defeat.” (Vz.ru, 07.22.24)
  • Boris Mezhuev, a Moscow-based political scientist, told pro-Kremlin conservative analytical portal Vzglyad in reference to Harris: “I think her prospects can be described as positive. The gap in ratings with Donald Trump is only a few percent.” (Vz.ru, 07.22.24)
• Joe Biden's withdrawal in favor of Vice President Harris has upended a race that the Kremlin and its backers saw as “a window of opportunity” to settle the war in Ukraine on Russia's aggressive, expansionist terms, according to analysts and current and former Russian officials. “If Kamala Harris wins the election, it will be a huge disappointment for the Kremlin,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, the founder of R.Politik. “Not because they expect some concrete anti-Russian steps but because the nature of American politics will become, from their point of view, irrational and unpragmatic and self-destructive.” (WP, 07.26.24)
• More than half of Russians (63%) closely or occasionally follow the U.S. presidential election campaign, according to the results of a survey conducted by VCIOM published on the organization’s website. According to the survey, exactly half (50%) of those polled think that who wins the U.S. election does not matter for Russia. Meanwhile, four out of ten respondents (42%) said they would vote for Donald Trump if given the chance. One-third of respondents (30%) believe that Trump winning would be the best scenario for Russia. (TASS, 07.22.24)
• According to the VCIOM poll, most Russians (89%) know about the assassination attempt on Trump, while 46% are well-informed about the incident, according to the results of a survey conducted by VCIOM. A quarter of respondents (24%) believe that Joe Biden, his supporters or the Democratic Party was behind the assassination attempt. [Almost one in ten], 9%, subscribe to the idea that Donald Trump himself staged the assassination attempt, a scenario gaining steam on social media and the Internet. Another 4% of respondents believe that the assassination attempt could have been organized by U.S. intelligence services or a mentally unwell person. (TASS, 07.22.24)
• Russian state-run TV channels mocked the U.S. presidential election after Biden withdrew from the race on Sunday and endorsed Harris as the Democratic Party’s new nominee. (MT/AFP, 07.22.24)
• A WSJ review of Russian court documents and media reports shows that at least 20 U.S. and dual U.S.-Russian citizens are being detained in Russian jails and labor camps. Six have been arrested since Gershkovich was detained in March last year. (WSJ, 07.21.24)
• A court in the republic of Tatarstan has sentenced Russian-American journalist Alsu Kurmasheva to six-and-a-half years in prison for spreading “fakes” about the army. (MT/AFP, 07.22.24)
• The U.S. Embassy in Moscow has called for the release of Alsu Kurmasheva, a veteran RFE/RL journalist who holds dual U.S.-Russian citizenship, after she was sentenced to 6 1/2 years in prison by a Russian court on charges she, her employer, the U.S. government and her supporters reject as politically motivated. Responding a day after news of Kurmasheva’s sentencing broke, the embassy said it was “a sad day for journalism in Russia.” (RFE/RL, 07.23.24)
• YouTube will load up to 40% more slowly on desktop computers in Russia by the end of this week and up to 70% slower by the end of next week, according to Russian lawmaker Alexander Khinshtein, who heads the State Duma's Information Policy Committee. (Meduza, 07.26.24)
  • The wife of Khinshtein, actress Olga Polyakova, sells advertising on the social network Instagram, which was blocked after the start of the war, a subscriber of the Astra publication noted. She has 200,000 followers on Instagram. (Istories, 07.26.24)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Real wages have grown by almost 14% in Russia, and the consumption of goods and services by around 25%, according to Rosstat, the Russian state statistics agency. A further bump in real wages of up to 3.5% is expected this year, alongside an expected 3% jump in real disposable income, according to Russia’s Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting. The unemployment rate, forecast to hit between 7 and 8% in 2022, is at 2.6% — a record post-Soviet low. This explosive pay increase is being felt across the socio-economic spectrum, dramatically transforming life for many blue-collar workers. (FT, 07.26.24)
• Russia’s central bank raised interest rates for the first time this year, as six months of acceleration in price growth forced policymakers to pivot from plans to start easing in the second half of the year. The Bank of Russia raised its benchmark on July 26 to 18% from 16%, in line with most forecasts. (Bloomberg, 07.26.24)
• Russian banks issued mortgages worth 7.7 trillion rubles ($88 billion, or 4% of GDP) last year, up from a total of 4.3 trillion in 2020. Most were supported by subsidies. This reflects the fact that Russians are short of investment opportunities: sanctions weigh on the stock market and currency controls make it hard to move money abroad. Inflation, which came roaring back in mid–2023, has also played a role—and not just by giving Russians an incentive to put money into bricks and mortar. (The Economist, 07.25.24)
• “It is now at a terribly low level – 1.4 [births per woman]. This is comparable to European countries, Japan and so on. But this is disastrous for the future of the nation,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said of Russia’s birth rate per woman. (SCMP, 07.26.24)
• Russian regions’ spending on cemetery expansion projects was nearly three times higher during the first two years of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine than it was during the two years prior. According to data from the official state procurement portal, Russia’s regions spent more than 225 million rubles ($2.5 million) on cemetery expansion in 2023. This is twice as much as in 2022 and almost six times more than in 2020. (MT, 07.22.24)
• Putin has ordered the transfer of the nationalized power-generating company TGK-2 to a subsidiary of Russian state-owned gas monopoly Gazprom. TGK-2 is one of northwestern Russia’s largest thermal power companies with 12 plants, 30 boiler houses and four heat network enterprises spanning six regions. A court in the city of Yaroslavl northeast of Moscow ruled last summer for the Russian government to seize 83.8% of TGK-2’s shares after prosecutors brought a lawsuit against exiled former Senator Leonid Lebedev, who was thought to be the utility’s beneficiary. (MT/AFP, 07.23.24)
• Russia’s richest woman, Tatyana Bakalchuk, is embroiled in a public dispute with her husband over the future of the country’s biggest online retail platform. In a Telegram post late July 23, Bakalchuk rejected allegations by her husband Vladislav that a merger deal announced last month with Russ Group, the nation’s biggest outdoor advertiser, was unfavorable for her e-commerce company, Wildberries. (Bloomberg, 07.24.24)
• The Russian parliament's lower chamber, the State Duma, on July 23 approved in the second and third readings bills that would allow any foreign entities, including those established by state organs of third countries, to be declared "undesirable." (RFE/RL, 07.23.24)
• The article on confidential cooperation with foreigners appeared in the criminal code of Russia only two years ago, but at least 40 cases have already been initiated under it. (Sever.Realii, 07.22.24)
• A Moscow court has sentenced exiled journalist Mikhail Zygar to eight-and-a-half years in prison in absentia for spreading so-called “fake” information about the Russian military’s actions in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 07.23.24)
• Russia’s Supreme Court has upheld a 19-year prison sentence for Alexei Navalny, state media reported on July 22, more than five months after the opposition activist died in an Arctic prison. In a closed-door hearing held on July 2, the court rejected an appeal by Navalny’s defense team against a nearly two-decade sentence for creating an “extremist community.” (MT/AFP, 07.22.24)
• Prosecutors asked a court in the Russian city of Nizhny Novgorod on July 24 to sentence activist Gleb Kalinychev to four years in prison for sending 1,899 rubles ($21.9) to Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) in 2021–22. (RFE/RL, 07.25.24)
• A Moscow court on July 23 ordered the self-exiled chief of the International Anti-Corruption Foundation, Maria Pevchikh, to pay a 30,000-ruble ($340) fine for failing to fulfill the duties of a "foreign agent." (RFE/RL, 07.23.24)
• Authorities in Moscow have added an unprecedented 54 indigenous groups and the U.S.-based Free Russia Foundation to the country’s growing list of “extremist” organizations. Russia’s Justice Ministry labeled the 55 seemingly unrelated organizations as “structural divisions” of the vaguely defined “Anti-Russian Separatist Movement,” which Russia’s Supreme Court banned as an “extremist” organization last month. (MT/AFP, 07.26.24)
• Election authorities in St. Petersburg have rejected all candidates from the liberal opposition party Yabloko who had sought to run in the city’s upcoming municipal elections, the local news outlet Bumaga reported on July 22. (MT/AFP, 07.22.24)

Defense and aerospace:

• The Russian State Duma adopted an amendment on July 24 that will allow Russian commanders to punish subordinates for using personal communication and navigation devices at the frontline, drawing continued backlash from Russian ultranationalists as well as other Duma deputies. (ISW, 07.24.24) 
• The Russian Ministry of Defense indicated that Lt. Gen. Sergey Kobylash has become Deputy Commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS). (ISW, 07.25.24)
• Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov oversaw combat readiness exercises at a military training facility in northwestern Russia, the defense ministry said on July 26. (MT/AFP, 07.26.24)
• "A new stage of the development of the [Russian] Navy is actually beginning," presidential aide Nikolai Patrushev, who oversees national maritime policy issues, said in an interview with Rossiyskaya Gazeta. "As a great maritime power, Russia should possess a powerful navy comprising ships designed to accomplish missions in close-in and distant maritime and oceanic areas and have a developed system of bases and logistics support," the presidential aide added. (Newsweek, 07.27.24)
• A Mi-28 helicopter belonging to the Russian military crashed in the western Kaluga region and the crew was killed, the Defense Ministry reported, saying that a technical malfunction was identified as the preliminary cause of the crash.  (RFE/RL, 07.25.24)
•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• A Russian man suspected of being behind a car bombing that left two people wounded in Moscow on July 24 has been extradited from Turkey and has arrived in the Russian capital. One of the two people wounded in the car explosion in a parking lot in northern Moscow was reported to be a senior military intelligence officer, although confusion still persists about the identity of both victims. The bombing suspect, identified as Russian citizen Yevgeny Serebryakov, was detained by Turkish police. Russian media reports said Andrei Torgashov, 49, the deputy chief of a military satellite-communications radio center who had reportedly taken part in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and his wife were the two victims of the bombing. Ukrainian officials say they have nothing to do with the incident. (Meduza, 07.24.24, (RFE/RL, 07.26.24)
• Russia’s former deputy defense minister, Gen. Dmitry Bulgakov, has been arrested as part of a corruption case, the FSB announced on July 26. Bulgakov is in custody in Moscow’s Butyrka remand prison. Bulgakov served as deputy defense minister for administrative issues between 2008 and 2022 and oversaw military logistics before being replaced in September 2022, the first major military reshuffle since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February of that year. (MT/AFP, 07.26.24), (Meduza, 07.26.24) 
• The former head of the Russian military’s construction company has been arrested on abuse of power charges. Andrei Belkov headed the Defense Ministry’s chief military construction authority for special facilities until 2021, when he was picked to head the newly established military construction company. Kommersant notes that Belkov’s job is “under a microscope” because of a high-profile bribery investigation into former Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov, who oversaw military construction and was seen as an ally of former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. (MT/AFP, 07.25.24)
• The former sports minister of the Russian North Caucasus region of Daghestan, Magomed Magomedov, was hospitalized over the weekend with what local media reports said were self-inflicted cuts after he attempted suicide in a Moscow detention center. The 67-year-old Magomedov was arrested in October 2023 on embezzlement charges. (RFE/RL, 07.22.24)
• A court in Moscow has sentenced Alexey Soldatov, former Russian Deputy Minister of Communications and one of the founders of Runet, to two years in a general-regime penal colony. Ekaterina Chuparnova, Soldatov's lawyer, informed Meduza on July 22 that Soldatov had been convicted of abuse of power by Moscow's Savelovsky District Court. (BNE, 07.24.24)
• Wildfires have destroyed nearly 5 million hectares of forest in Russia so far this summer, the country’s Aerial Forest Protection Service reported July 22. (MT/AFP, 07.23.24)
• At least three Russian citizens were killed after a fishing boat carrying 27 people sank around 320 kilometers off the Falkland Islands, Russia’s Foreign Ministry said July 24. The 54-meter Argos Georgia sank on July 22 afternoon after being suddenly flooded with water in the South Atlantic, authorities in the Falkland Islands said in a statement. Rescuers have so far managed to save 14 crew members. (MT/AFP, 07.24.24)

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including  relations with “far abroad” countries:

• A Moscow court on July 23 extended the pre-trial detention of a dual Russian-German citizen accused of treason in an ultra-secret criminal case. Russia has arrested a spate of Western citizens amid its offensive on Ukraine, drawing accusations that it is taking "hostages" to use as bargaining chips for prisoner exchanges. According to state-run news agency TASS, German Moyzhes, a migration lawyer who helped Russians apply for residence permits in Europe, was arrested in St. Petersburg in May by Russian security services. (MT/AFP, 07.23.24)
• A team of agents of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (formerly called the GRU), under the leadership of Col. Denis Smolyaninov, is behind the organization of a series of sabotage acts in Europe, carried out against the backdrop of the war against Ukraine, according to the Dossier investigative center which has gained access to documents of this team. (Istories, 07.25.24)
• Germany’s domestic intelligence service has issued an advisory notice to German companies over what it says is a recently increased risk of Russian sabotage attempts.  The notice issued on July 26 morning comes as French security authorities scramble to assess who is responsible for a coordinated series of arson attacks on their country’s rail network hours ahead of the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games. (FT, 07.26.24)
• Germany's investigative journalism association, the Netzwerk Recherche (NR), has expelled influential broadcaster and author Hubert Seipel after it became known that he received money from Moscow for writing laudatory books about Russian President Vladimir Putin. (RFE/RL, 07.22.24)
• The Kremlin's spokesman on July 26 said Moscow had not been informed of the arrest in France of a Russian man over a suspected "destabilization" plot targeting the Paris Olympics. French prosecutors said the man, born in 1984, was suspected of "passing intelligence to a foreign power in order to arouse hostilities in France." (MT/AFP, 07.26.24)
  • France has denied visas to about 100 journalists, therapists and technical workers seeking to attend the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris amid concerns over espionage, Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin told Le Journal du Dimanche. (RFE/RL, 07.21.24)
  • The International Olympic Committee (IOC) said July 20 it was resigned to the Paris Games being targeted by disinformation attacks following recent incidents blamed on Russia. (MT/AFP, 07.20.24)
  • France has suspended high-speed rail services across much of the country after the network was hit by sabotage attacks hours before the Olympic Games opening ceremony. No official statement has yet been issued about who was behind the attacks. French officials have previously warned that Russia or political activists could seek to sabotage the Games. (FT, 07.26.24)
• Yemen’s Houthi militants have attacked more merchant ships hauling Russian commodities than products from anywhere else in the world, highlighting the limits of safe-passage assurances that the rebels gave Moscow earlier this year. Of 83 vessels listed by the UK Navy as suffering incidents in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden since November, 19% had Russia as their most recent port call. (Bloomberg, 07.25.24)

Ukraine:

• Ukraine has struck a deal with international bondholders to restructure about $20 billion of debt, boosting Kyiv’s drive to use private capital to finance its war effort against Russia. Zelenskyy’s government said on July 22 that it won support from investors to reduce the face value of the debt by more than a third, paving the way for a formal restructuring in the coming weeks. The agreement will replace a two-year moratorium on bond payments that was granted after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 but was due to expire next month.  (FT, 07.22.24)
  • Ukraine’s GDP warrants rallied to the highest since early 2022 after the government promised to make some of its debt payments. The warrants, a kind of debt security with payouts linked to economic growth, rose by about 9 cents this week to trade at 58 cents on the dollar on July 23, the highest level since Russia started its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 07.23.24)
• Ukraine halted a run of three interest-rate cuts as an acceleration in inflation prompted policymakers in the war-battered nation to signal that easing may only be resumed next year. The National Bank of Ukraine held the key rate at 13% July 25, as predicted by six out of nine economists in a Bloomberg survey. (Bloomberg, 07.25.24)
• An 18-year-old man has been arrested in southeast Ukraine on suspicion of shooting dead Iryna Farion, a controversial former MP and linguistics professor. The teenager was tracked down in Dnipro, more than 900km (550 miles) from the western city of Lviv where the attack took place, after a manhunt involving a large team of investigators. (BBC, 07.26.24)
• In June, 95% of Ukrainian respondents considered themselves ethnic Ukrainians, 2% considered themselves ethnic Russians, 2% classified themselves as other ethnic groups, and 1.5% were undecided on their ethnicity. This is evidenced by the results of a survey by the Razumkov Center, published on July 24. By the beginning of the war, in 2021, 87% of respondents considered themselves Ukrainians, 9% – Russians. (Korrespondent, 07.24.24)
• A prosecutor of the Ukranian Prosecutor General's Office was served a notice of suspicion of incitement to take a $170,000 bribe to close a criminal case. The suspect persuaded an entrepreneur to pay a bribe to close a case of illegal alienation of property. (UNN, 07.23.24)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Belarus and Germany are in talks over the fate of a German citizen accused by Minsk of being a mercenary in Ukraine and sentenced to death by firing squad. Federal Foreign Office and the German embassy in Minsk are providing consular assistance to the person concerned and working intensively with the Belarusian authorities on his behalf. (Bloomberg, 07.20.24)
• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko traveled to Russia on July 25 for talks with Putin. (MT/AFP, 07.25.24)
• Polish lawmakers voted on July 26 in favor of a bill making it easier for security services to use weapons at the Poland-Belarus border, legislation that has public support but that critics say infringes human right. (RFE/RL, 07.26.24)
• A Russian agency is pushing new rules of conduct on Central Asian migrants that severely restrict usage of their native languages and warn them about praying in public and sacrificing animals for religious purposes. Central Asian migrants are told about the strict rules and code of behavior in a 70-minute course created by Russia's Federal Agency of Ethnic Affairs in seminars in certain parts of the country. (RFE/RL, 07.23.24)
• Uzbekistan's Central Election Commission announced on July 26 that parliamentary and local elections will be held in the Central Asian nation on Oct. 27. (RFE/RL, 07.26.24)
• Russian disinformation threatens to interfere with Moldovan elections later this year just as the country begins to make significant progress on reforms under pro-Western President Maia Sandu, U.S. and Moldovan officials said at separate events in Washington on July 23. Moldova is preparing for a vote on Oct. 20 that will include a referendum on membership in the European Union. (RFE/RL, 07.23.24)

IV. Quotable and notable

• No significant developments.

Footnotes

1. Production of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card, which assesses changes in territorial control, is currently on hold. You can access past issues via the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card archive. 

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 11:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Photo by the Ukrainian presidential office shared in the public domain.