Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the U.S. presidential race and support his VP Kamala Harris has Russian officials and scholars of U.S.-Russian relations divided on whether a Democrat can defeat the GOP’s Donald Trump in November. Boris Mezhuev, a Moscow-based political scientist, told pro-Kremlin conservative analytical portal Vzglyad in reference to Harris: “I think her prospects can be described as positive. The gap in ratings with Donald Trump is only a few percent.” According to Russian foreign policy veteran Sen. Alexey Pushkov, however, “in the battle for the presidency, Trump defeated Biden ahead of schedule.” Pushkov’s colleague, and deputy chairman of the Russian Senate Konstantin Kosachev, also believes Trump is more likely to win. Interestingly, Vladimir Pastukhov, a self-exiled opposition-minded Russian political scientist, concurs, predicting that Harris’s chances to defeat Trump are dim, while U.S.-based opposition-minded Russian scholar Konstantin Sonin is less pessimistic, putting her chances of Harris winning at 50/50.

Regardless of who wins the election, the Kremlin is already claiming that Russians (42% of whom would vote for Trump) should not hold their breath on the question of how or whether U.S.-Russia relations will shift after the elections. Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said Russia expects “nothing good” with regard to the U.S. presidential election, predicting that Washington will continue to aid Kyiv “one way or another.” However, despite this aid, Russia will achieve its war goals, Putin’s deputy at the Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev declared when commenting on Biden’s decision not to run for re-election. That decision should not sadden Russians, according to Fyodor Lukyanov, who heads Russia’s equivalent of the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations. That said, Biden “was not the worst option as a counterpart in a tough confrontation” between Washington and Moscow, according to Lukyanov. Regardless of who becomes the next U.S. president, this leading Russian foreign policy expert predicted, “the degree of volatility [in U.S.-Russia relations] will increase.” 

Below are expanded versions of some of these and other comments made by Russian officials and foreign policy experts following Biden’s announcement. Items are in alphabetical order by last name.¹

Konstantin Kosachyov, deputy chairman of the Russian Senate, said that now that Biden has dropped out, the Republicans "will have to plan their campaign against a new candidate under a certain time pressure, and the previous achievements, like the TV debates won, have been totally devalued now.” "But Trump's advantage in principle hasn't been devalued," he said. "It looks like everything will be in the hands of Trump and his team," Kosachyov said. (Interfax, 07.22.24)

Fyodor Lukyanov, editor in chief of the journal Russia in Global Affairs; chairman of Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy:²

• “When it comes to Russian interests, we have no reason to be sad because of Biden. He personally had a hand in the Ukrainian story like no one else did. ... However, in fairness, it is worth noting that he was not the worst option as a counterpart in a tough confrontation. He is very experienced, fairly cautious, relatively rational. As long as Biden set the political course, it could be predicted. Those who will replace him cannot boast of all these qualities, so the degree of volatility ... will increase.” (Rossiiskaya Gazeta/Russia in Global Affairs, 07.22.24)
• “On the Democrats’ side, even in the case of serious rejuvenation, one should expect rather an increase in the ideological degree. From the Republican side, one should expect attempts to shift all the negative relations with Russia onto Europe while trying ... to achieve a distance between Moscow and Beijing. No fundamental concessions or incentives will be offered to Russia for this.” (Rossiiskaya Gazeta/Russia in Global Affairs, 07.22.24)
• “American upheavals are important for us not because of specific shifts in the policy line toward Russia, but in relation to the general state and prospects of the political system of the United States. America is shaking in an unprecedented way, and now it will inevitably face big changes. And the main question is whether the United States will change in line with global trends (a much less centralized and diverse international system) or, on the contrary, will try to rely on a return of previous universalism. It so happened that it fell to Biden to become the fork in the road, although this was not what he himself was striving for.” (Rossiiskaya Gazeta/Russia in Global Affairs, 07.22.24)

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Security Council, wrote in his Telegram channel: “Biden is done ... We wish him health. The goals of the SVO [special military operation] will be achieved.” (RM, 07.22.24)

Boris Mezhuev, Russian political scientist, told pro-Kremlin analytical portal Vzglyad on July 22 in reference to Harris: “I think her prospects can be described as positive. The gap in ratings with Donald Trump is only a few percent. At the same time, the future campaign may be based on the fact that if she wins, she will become the first woman to head the White House. Her relatively young age also plays in her favor. In this regard, the situation will become quite complicated for Donald Trump. Previously, compared to Joe Biden, he looked like the favorite. Now, most likely, they will use his age against him—Harris will certainly try to play this trump card. … They will try to mold Harris into a second Hillary Clinton. Most likely, the entire U.S. anti-Russian lobby will rally around her. In this regard, Trump’s November triumph looks more preferable for Moscow at the moment.” (Vz.ru, 07.22.24)

Vladimir Pastukhov, self-exiled Russian political scientist, wrote on his Telegram channel: “In my opinion, although it is impossible to completely rule out the possibility of Harris winning over Trump (tactical voting has not been canceled yet), she has even less chance of becoming president than Biden. The deployment in flight strengthens Trump's position even more and drives the Democratic Party into an even more severe and protracted crisis.” (RM, 07.22.24)

Dmitry Peskov, Vladimir Putin’s press secretary, told journalists:

• “Honestly, in recent years, what has been happening in the United States has taught us not to be surprised by anything. Therefore, we were not very surprised. ... [Joe Biden’s decision] is not our internal matter. … It’s not our place to make assessments. The issue should concern American voters, but not us. Yes, the prospects for Russian-American relations are important to us, but internal problems come first.” (Kommersant, 07.22.24)
• “There were some statements [by Harris] that were replete with rhetoric that was quite unfriendly toward our country. We haven’t recorded any other actions of hers regarding bilateral relations or with a plus or minus sign until now.” (Kommersant, 07.22.24)
• Peskov said that “nothing good can be expected” in the next six months, answering the question of what expectations the Kremlin has before the U.S. elections. According to him, the United States “one way or another will continue to help” Ukraine. (Vedomosti, 07.22.24)

Alexey Pushkov, Russian senator: “Today, in the battle for the presidency, Trump defeated Biden ahead of schedule. Biden did not leave on his own. He was forced out by his fellow Democrats because he had already lost the presidential race to Trump. By withdrawing his candidacy from the election, Biden admitted his defeat.” (Vz.ru, 07.22.24)

Tatyana Rybakova, commentator for liberal opposition analytical outlet Republic.ru, wrote: “No matter who wins [the U.S. presidential election], arms production [in the U.S.] will increase. Regardless of whether the wars in Ukraine and Israel are stopped, whether hostilities begin in Taiwan. The Russian attack changed everything—the world is increasingly convinced that it is time to start arms race 2.0. The difference between Republicans and Democrats is only in the details.” (Republuc.ru, 07.22.24)

Konstantin Sonin, professor at the University of Chicago, wrote on his X account:

• “Biden has announced his support for Kamala Harris, but that does not guarantee her the Democratic nomination. However, she is the clear favorite for the nomination - even before it is known what the selection process will look like. If Harris becomes the nominee, the leading vice presidential candidates are Pennsylvania Gov. Shapiro, North Carolina Gov. Cooper or Kentucky Gov. Beshear.”
• “Harris' main problems are that she is a weak candidate (among very strong [candidates]), creating problems for herself during the campaigns, and she is an ‘alien’ for those states where voting will be decisive - Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. Her advantages are that the economic indicators are good and she is only 59 years old, 20 years younger than Trump. ... As for the chances of the Democratic candidate in the November elections - I would say, I don’t know who that female candidate will be - that it’s 50 to 50. On the one hand, she will have unprecedentedly little time, by American standards, for the election campaign. On the other hand, former President Trump is really not popular. Unlike Biden and Obama, he never got 50% of the vote, always less. This does not negate his unique achievements - a third nomination in a row, for the first time in 80 years, and the highest support within the party. And yet, if I were told to place a bet today - 50/50.” (RM, 07.22.24)

Dmitry Suslov, a Valdai Club expert, said: “The Biden administration’s position is that they are ready for talks right now, despite the general context of Russian-U.S. relations, despite the hybrid war the U.S. is waging against Russia and despite the U.S. attempts to deal a strategic defeat to Russia … and if a Democratic candidate wins the election, this position will stay in place.” (TASS, 07.22.24)

Maria Zakharova, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, recalled how Biden demanded the resignation of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad. On her Telegram channel, she wrote: “‘He must go,’ thought President Assad, reading American newspapers in the morning, while drinking a cup of coffee for the 80th anniversary of Russian-Syrian relations.” (Vz.ru, 07.22.24)

Vyacheslav Volodin, State Duma speaker, said: "Biden has caused problems all over the world and in his own country, the United States. Since he sees that he will not be elected, he is withdrawing without waiting for the election.” (Interfax, 07.21.24)

Footnotes:

1. This post is also part of Russia Matters’ “Clues from Russian Views” series, in which we share what newsmakers in/from Russia are saying on Russia-related issues that impact key U.S. national interests so that RM readers can glean clues about their thinking.
2. NB: These and some other entries were machine-translated.

White House photo available in the public domain.