This Week’s Highlights

• Russian President Vladimir Putin told his French counterpart that he will “carefully study” Western responses to Russia’s security demands and “decide on further actions,” The Moscow Times/AFP reports. Two days earlier, the U.S. and NATO formally rejected Russia’s demands but proposed several areas—including nuclear arms control and limits on military exercises—where they were willing to negotiate, per The New York Times. A Kremlin spokesman said Jan. 27 that “continuing a dialogue … is in the interests” of both Moscow and Washington, while Russia’s top diplomat insisted on Jan. 28 that Russia will not start a war with Ukraine after President Joe Biden warned there is a “distinct possibility” it could invade in February, the Financial Times and NBC report.

• When it comes to assessing the risk of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, there is a major geopolitical divide between the United States and Britain, on one hand, and some of their European allies, on the other, The Washington Post and Wall Street Journal report. Washington and some of the Europeans, particularly Germany and France, even appear to be drawing different conclusions about Russia’s intentions from identical intelligence.
• Senior Ukrainian and Russian officials are talking about implementing the Minsk-2 peace accords again, for the first time since 2019, with France and Germany seeing this process as a possible off-ramp that would allow Russian President Vladimir Putin a face-saving way to de-escalate the military build-up on Ukraine’s border, the Wall Street Journal and Germany’s DW report.
• Russia has continued to mass forces on the Ukrainian border, with troops now surrounding the country on all sides, including in Belarus and Transnistria, the New York Times reports. The buildup, according to Reuters, has expanded to include supplies of blood and other medical materials that would allow Russia to treat casualties. Russia has also positioned a liquefied natural gas tanker next to its Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad, which could provide the region with natural gas in the event of a disruption to supplies through Lithuania, the Financial Times and Polish sources report. Ukraine, meanwhile, is preparing a partisan resistance that will operate behind Russian lines should Putin order a full-scale invasion and attempt to occupy Ukrainian cities, the Globe and Mail reports from Kharkiv.
• Moscow has asked Washington to return all American nuclear weapons from NATO countries to U.S. territory as part of its push for security guarantees, a senior Russian arms control negotiator has told TASS. According to Vladimir Yermakov, "there are about 200 American nuclear air bombs of the B61 family" in five non-nuclear NATO countries, enabling the alliance to rapidly deploy nuclear weapons that can reach strategic targets on Russian territory. Moscow is likewise seeking the withdrawal of NATO forces and weapons from Romania and Bulgaria, Russia’s Foreign Ministry said Jan. 21, according to The Moscow Times. On Jan. 27, former President Dmitry Medvedev, now the deputy chairman of Russia’s powerful Security Council, told TASS that Russia opposes the deployment of weapons in Ukraine not only by NATO member states but by other Western countries: Russia hears “whispers from time to time that Ukraine will not join NATO in the years to come. But this is not what we are talking about here," he added.
• President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin traded provocations Jan. 25, with the Kremlin broadcasting a new round of military exercises within striking distance of Ukraine and Washington rushing a fresh shipment of weapons to Kyiv while suggesting thousands of U.S. troops could be deployed soon to shore up allies’ defenses in Eastern Europe, according to The Washington Post. Biden said, however, that no U.S. or NATO troops will be sent into Ukraine in the event of a Russian invasion, Yahoo News reports.
• The Biden administration announced on Jan. 25 that it was working with gas and crude oil suppliers from the Middle East, North Africa and Asia to bolster supplies to Europe in coming weeks, trying to plan contingency measures if Russia invades Ukraine and disrupts supplies to Europe, The New York Times reports. The administration is also narrowing its targets for retaliatory economic sanctions in the event of an invasion so as not to roil the global financial system, the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg write. A novel export control is likewise under consideration, per The Washington Post, to damage strategic Russian industries and potentially deprive Russian citizens of certain electronic consumer goods.
• Days before Russian President Vladimir Putin is to head to Beijing for a summit meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and the opening of the Olympic Games, China urged the U.S. to take Russia’s concerns about security seriously. In a telephone conversation with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi called for abandoning Cold War mentality, warned the U.S. and its allies not to “hype up the crisis” around Ukraine and said that abiding by the Minsk II agreement would help resolve the conflict, TASS, the Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal report. Analysts have noted that Chinese state media are echoing Russia's talking points on Ukraine, and policy experts doubted that Beijing would back Washington in the standoff, Reuters writes.
• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said Jan. 28 his country would go to war if its key ally Russia was attacked, promising to host "hundreds of thousands" of Russian troops in the event of a conflict, The Moscow Times/AFP report. He said, however, that "there will be no winners in this war" and "everything will be lost." The U.S. earlier warned Belarus against helping Russia invade Ukraine and the Belarusian Ministry of Defense said on Jan. 27 that Russian military forces would leave Belarus once February’s joint exercises between them are over, according to RFE/RL and Reuters.
• While global media outlets are focused on whether or not Russia will invade Ukraine, Russian state media views the rising tensions from a different angle, focusing news coverage on U.S.-Russia negotiations and the likelihood of a Ukrainian attack on Russia-supported separatists in the eastern Ukrainian Donbas region, The Moscow Times reports.
• Russia added Alexei Navalny and several of his top aides to the country’s “terrorists and extremists” register Jan. 25, issuing an arrest warrant for Navalny’s brother, Oleg, The Moscow Times and AFP report. Another activist ally of Navalny’s told Reuters on Jan. 27 she had fled Russia to avoid jail, while two of his top aides said they had received letters with threats to themselves and their families.
• Russia recorded almost one million excess deaths between the start of the pandemic and the end of 2021, as the country also reported its sharpest annual fall in population since the fall of the Soviet Union, The Moscow Times reports.
• German prosecutors say they have arrested a Russian scientist accused of spying for Moscow, alleging he passed on classified information about Europe's Ariane rocket program while working at a German university, according to RFE/RL.

I. SPECIAL SECTION: Ukraine-Russia-NATO Crisis

• President Vladimir Putin told French President Emmanuel Macron that the U.S. had ignored Russia’s key security demands and “fundamental concerns” in its written responses to Moscow’s demands this week, the Kremlin said on Jan. 28. According to the Kremlin’s readout of the call, Putin told Macron that the U.S. and NATO also turned down his demands not to deploy attack missiles near Russian borders and to move the bloc’s military infrastructure out of Eastern Europe. Putin told Macron that he will “carefully study” Western responses and “decide on further actions.” (The Moscow Times/AFP, 01.28.22)
  • The Kremlin suggested in the readout that it wants the U.S. and its allies to abide by principles formulated in past agreements stipulating “that no one should strengthen their security at the expense of other countries’ security.” (The Moscow Times/AFP, 01.28.22)
  • American intelligence officials say Putin still has not made a decision—and may not for several weeks. (The New York Times, 01.26.22)
• Russia insisted on Jan. 28 that it will not start a war with Ukraine after President Joe Biden warned there is a “distinct possibility” that Moscow could invade its neighbor in February. "If it depends on the Russian Federation, then there will be no war," Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said during a live interview with Russian radio stations. "But I do not rule out that someone would like to provoke military action [around Ukraine]." Lavrov repeated Moscow's warnings of retaliation if its security demands are rejected. But he also struck a relatively more optimistic note, suggesting that the sides could continue dialogue after the letters from the U.S. and NATO. Lavrov had said a day earlier that the U.S. response “gives hope for the start of a serious conversation on secondary questions." Likewise, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Jan. 27 that, while the U.S. response left "little ground for optimism,” “there are always prospects for continuing a dialogue; it’s in the interests of both us and the Americans.” (NBC, 01.28.22, The Moscow Times/AFP, 01.28.22, RFE/RL, 01.27.22, Financial Times, 01.27.22)
• Russia says it does not want war but has placed a "gun on the table" in its negotiations with the United States by massing troops on Ukraine's borders, U.S. Ambassador to Moscow John Sullivan said on Jan. 28. "We hope that the Russian government is true to its word, and does not plan to, and will not, further invade Ukraine. But the facts suggest that it has the present ability to do that," he said. (Reuters, 01.28.22)

• The United States and its allies on Jan. 26 formally rejected Russia’s demands that NATO retreat from Eastern Europe and bar Ukraine from ever entering the alliance but proposed several areas—including nuclear arms control and limits on military exercises—where they were willing to negotiate. The written responses, issued separately by the Biden administration and NATO, offered Russia a choice: enter negotiations with Washington and its allies, including Ukraine, or proceed with an invasion and face what the administration says will be crushing economic sanctions. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Washington had offered Moscow “a serious diplomatic path forward” and “a principled and pragmatic evaluation of the concerns that Russia has raised.” The U.S. response, hand-delivered by U.S. Ambassador John Sullivan, has not been made public; neither has NATO’s. (The New York Times, 01.26.22, The Moscow Times, 01.26.22, RFE/RL, 01.26.22)
  • Blinken said Jan. 26 that he expects to speak with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, “in the coming days after Moscow has had a chance to read the paper and is ready to discuss next steps.” (Russia Matters, 01.26.22)
  • "We make clear that there are core principles that we are committed to uphold and defend, including Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and the right of states to choose their own security arrangements and alliances," Blinken said. (The New York Times, 01.26.22, The Moscow Times, 01.26.22)
• Senior Ukrainian and Russian officials are talking about implementing the Minsk-2 peace accords again, for the first time since 2019, with France and Germany seeing this process as a possible off-ramp that would allow Russian President Vladimir Putin a face-saving way to de-escalate the military build-up on Ukraine’s border. Ukraine’s national security adviser Andriy Yermak and Russia’s point man on Ukraine Dmitry Kozak met with their French and German counterparts to discuss Minsk-2 for eight hours on Jan. 26 in Paris and agreed to meet again in Berlin in two weeks. Kozak said the talks were "not simple," but there was one point of agreement: "Despite all the differences in interpretations, we agreed that the cease-fire [in eastern Ukraine] must be maintained by all the parties in line with the accords." (Wall Street Journal, 01.27.22, DW, 01.26.22)
  • While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy welcomed the four-way talks as meaningful and a step toward peace, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Jan. 27 that Russia is likely to remain on a diplomatic track with Kyiv and the West for at least two weeks but will continue efforts to destabilize Ukraine. (Reuters, 01.27.22, Reuters, 01.27.22)
• When it comes to assessing the risk of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, there is a major geopolitical divide. The United States, along with its ever-close foreign policy ally Britain, has warned that Russian troops massing on the border of Ukraine suggest that Moscow could start a major conflict on European soil. And yet even with this risk, some European nations closer to the action remain skeptical. Many in Europe think Vladimir Putin is bluffing, with Washington and some of its European allies, particularly Germany and France, appearing to draw different conclusions about Russia’s intentions from identical intelligence. (Washington Post, 01.25.22, Wall Street Journal, 01.27.22, The Washington Post, 01.23.22)
  • White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Jan. 24 that U.S. citizens in Ukraine “should leave now” and reiterated that no organized evacuation effort is planned should Russia invade. The U.S. ordered the departure of all family members of U.S. Embassy personnel in Ukraine, citing the “threat of Russian military action” and told nonessential staffers they could leave. Britain and Canada followed suit, temporarily withdrawing some staffers. But others, including the European Union, have opted to stay. (New York Post, 01.24.22, The Washington Post, 01.25.22)
  • U.S. officials said there was growing “convergence” with the EU on financial sanctions aimed at crippling Russian banks in the event of an invasion of Ukraine, as Western countries sought to settle on a package of economic countermeasures to a possible attack. In a call with reporters on Jan. 25, senior U.S. administration officials said they were still hopeful that the threat of devastating economic consequences could deter Putin from an invasion. The EU and Washington reaffirmed on Jan. 24 and Jan. 27, respectively, that Moscow would face "massive" consequences if it attacked Ukraine. (Financial Times, 01.25.22, Reuters, 01.24.22, RFE/RL, 01.27.22)
  • The U.S. and its European allies are in “total” agreement on dealing with Russia's military threat on the borders of Ukraine, Biden said Jan. 24 after a call with leaders of the U.K., Germany, France, Italy, Poland, the European Council, the European Commission and NATO. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet with Biden on Feb. 7 at the White House to discuss tensions between Russia and Ukraine, Washington said. (RFE/RL, 01.24.22, Reuters, 01.27.22)
  • For more on this topic see subsection on “Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with ‘far abroad’ countries” below.
• President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin traded provocations Jan. 25, with the Kremlin broadcasting a new round of military exercises within striking distance of Ukraine and Washington rushing a fresh shipment of weapons to Kyiv while suggesting thousands of U.S. troops could be deployed soon to shore up allies’ defenses in Eastern Europe. Biden said, however, that no U.S. or NATO troops will be sent into Ukraine in the event of a Russian invasion, which he said would be "the largest invasion since World War II," CNN reported.  (Washington Post, 01.25.22, Yahoo News, 01.25.22)
  • A U.S. plane carrying Javelin anti-tank missiles, launchers and other military hardware landed in Kyiv on Jan. 25, the third shipment of a $200-million security package to shore up Ukraine as it braces for a possible Russian military offensive. (Reuters, 01.25.22)
  • The Russian military will stage large-scale exercises near Ukraine and in annexed Crimea, news agencies reported Jan. 25. The Defense Ministry said 6,000 troops and 60 warplanes have been deployed for so-called combat readiness drills stretching across three regions near Ukraine and in Crimea. A day earlier 20 Russian Navy vessels set out into the Baltic Sea for drills, RIA reported, amid heightened tensions between Moscow and the West over Ukraine and reports that the U.S. might send extra troops to the region. (The Moscow Times, 01.25.22, Reuters, 01.24.22)
• Russia has continued to mass forces on the Ukrainian border, with troops now surrounding the country on all sides, including in Belarus and Transnistria, a Russian-backed breakaway region of Moldova. A map compiled by The New York Times shows troops, tanks and heavy artillery moving into positions that threaten to widen the conflict in Ukraine’s east and potentially open a new front on Ukraine’s northern border, closer to the capital, Kyiv. (New York Times, 01.27.22)
• Russia's military buildup near Ukraine has expanded to include supplies of blood along with other medical materials that would allow it to treat casualties, in yet another key indicator of Moscow's military readiness, three U.S. officials tell Reuters. Western defense officials had said earlier that Moscow has sent medical units to the front, moving to a level of readiness that it hadn’t reached in past buildups. (Reuters, 01.28.22, The Wall Street Journal, 01.27.22) 
• Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley warned on Jan. 28 that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would be "horrific" for the country and would result in "significant" casualties as he urged Russian President Vladimir Putin to choose a diplomatic path instead. (CNN, 01.28.22)
• NATO members began sending additional ships and fighter jets to allied countries in Eastern Europe on Jan. 23 as British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that Russia had massed enough troops close to Ukraine for a “lightning war” in which it would try to seize Kyiv. Johnson said Jan. 24 that the intelligence around a Russian invasion of Ukraine was gloomy but not inevitable, while NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the alliance could deploy additional combat units in Eastern Europe. (Financial Times, 01.24.22, Reuters, 01.24.22, Reuters, 01.24.22)
  • U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has put 8,500 American troops on “high alert” for possible deployment to Eastern Europe, as NATO and the United States braced for a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Pentagon announced Jan. 24. Most of the troops would take part in a NATO response force that might soon be activated. (New York Times, 01.24.22)
  • NATO said on Jan. 24 that Denmark, Spain, France and the Netherlands were all planning or considering sending troops, planes or ships to Eastern Europe. (RFE/RL, 01.24.22)
  • British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace has admitted he is “not optimistic” that a Russian incursion into Ukraine can be stopped, though there is still “a chance” that it could be. Wallace also confirmed he would soon meet with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu in Moscow. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Jan. 25 that the U.K. would seek “to contribute to any new NATO deployments to protect our allies” in the event Russia invades Ukraine. (Daily Mirror, 01.27.22, Financial Times, 01.25.22)
• Russia denounced the NATO moves as Western “hysteria.” President Vladimir Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Jan. 25 these actions were only adding to an already tense atmosphere. "The United States is escalating tensions," he told reporters. "We are watching these U.S. actions with great concern." Earlier, Peskov had told reporters that the West was to blame for escalating tensions by deploying more forces and publishing “fake” claims of two Russian regime change plots in Ukraine. He added that Putin wanted to “avoid [a] similar tense situation in the future” by focusing on security talks with the U.S. and NATO. (Reuters, 01.24.22, The Moscow Times/AFP, 01.25.22, Financial Times, 01.24.22)
• Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has called on the West not to create panic amid the build-up of Russian troops on his country's borders, saying that warnings of an imminent invasion were putting Ukraine's economy at risk. He and President Joe Biden had a back-and-forth in their call late Jan. 27 about just how “imminent” the threat of a Russian invasion might be, according to three sources briefed on the call. (BBC, 01.28.22, Axios, 01.27.22) 
• Ukraine is preparing a partisan resistance that will operate behind Russian lines should President Vladimir Putin order a full-scale invasion and attempt to occupy Ukrainian cities. A senior Ukrainian security source directly involved in the preparations said the plan would involve sleeper agents already in place in the occupied Crimean Peninsula, as well as the Donbas region, which is under the control of a pro-Russian militia. Other agents are setting up now in places that are considered possible targets of any Russian aggression. (Globe and Mail, 01.28.22)
• The U.K. warned on Jan. 22 that Russia was plotting to install a pro-Moscow leader in Ukraine at a time of mounting Western alarm over an imminent Russian invasion of the country. Ukraine’s parliament has about 50 members who are supportive of Moscow and opposed to Ukraine’s Western alignment. (Financial Times, 01.22.22)
  • Russia’s Foreign Ministry on Jan. 23 rejected the British claim that the Kremlin is seeking to replace Ukraine’s government with a pro-Moscow administration led by former Ukrainian lawmaker Yevheniy, or Yevhen, Murayev. (AP, 01.23.22)
  • British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, whose agency leveled the accusation, said on Jan. 24 that Britain will call out Russian attempts to subvert democracy. (Reuters, 01.24.22)
• The Biden administration announced on Jan. 25 that it was working with gas and crude oil suppliers from the Middle East, North Africa and Asia to bolster supplies to Europe in coming weeks, in an effort to plan contingency measures in case a Russian invasion of Ukraine disrupts supplies to Europe. (The New York Times, 01.25.22, Financial Times, 01.22.22)
  • The U.S. is threatening painful sanctions against Russia if it launches an attack on Ukraine, but Moscow could hit back at the West by throttling natural gas supplies to Europe or triggering a spike in oil prices, experts and former U.S. officials say. (NBC, 01.28.22)
  • U.S. and European officials are racing to find short-term alternatives to refill depleted reserves. More than two dozen tankers are en route from the U.S. to Europe, lured by high gas prices in the EU. Another 33 tankers that haven’t yet confirmed their destinations are likely to mainly head there as well, according to oil analytics firm Vortexa Inc. “They would only cover a fraction” of Russian supplies if all were lost, said Clay Seigle, managing director at Vortexa. (The Wall Street Journal, 01.27.22)
• Russia has positioned a liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker next to its Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad, between Poland and Lithuania, in a rare move that has raised eyebrows in the industry as tensions rise with the west over Ukraine. The editor of a Polish energy magazine has reported that the tanker, the Marshal Wasilewski (or Vasilevskiy), is Russia’s only floating regasification terminal, according to military analyst Konrad Muzyka. The terminal, Muzyka writes, was originally purchased to secure the region with natural gas in the event of a disruption to supplies coming via Gazprom’s Lithuanian pipeline; without external supplies, he adds, the Wasilewski can sustain the Kaliningrad region’s gas needs for “around 33-34 days.” (Financial Times, 01.26.22, Russia Matters, 01.28.22)
• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said Jan. 28 his country would go to war if its key ally Russia was attacked, promising to host "hundreds of thousands" of Russian troops in the event of a conflict. He said, however, that "there will be no winners in this war" and "everything will be lost." Earlier, Lukashenko had said he would deploy “an entire contingent” of his army at the Ukrainian border in response to NATO force deployments in the Baltics and troop build-ups in Ukraine. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 01.28.22, Financial Times, 01.24.22)
  • Russian military forces will leave Belarus once joint exercises between the two ex-Soviet countries are over next month, the Belarusian Ministry of Defense said on Jan. 27. (Reuters, 01.27.22)
  • The U.S. warned Belarus on Jan. 25 that it would face a “decisive response” if it assists ally Russia in invading neighboring Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 01.25.22)
  • A Belarusian hacktivist group says it has launched a limited cyberattack on the national railway company, aimed at impeding the movement of Russian troops and freight inside the Moscow-allied country. (AP, 01.24.22)

• The Biden administration is narrowing its targets for a barrage of economic sanctions against Russia if it attacks Ukraine—hitting major Russian banks, state companies and needed imports, though the strategy faces obstacles that have hindered previous pressure campaigns. (Wall Street Journal, 01.28.22)
  • The Biden administration held discussions this week with the country’s largest banks on possible sanctions against Russia as part of its efforts to ensure such actions won’t disrupt the global financial system. A trade group representing Chevron, General Electric and other big U.S. corporations that do business in Russia has asked the White House to consider giving U.S. companies time to fulfill commitments and exempting some products as it crafts any sanctions over Russian actions in Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 01.28.22, Reuters, 01.25.22)
  • The Biden administration is threatening to use a novel export control to damage strategic Russian industries, from AI and quantum computing to civilian aerospace, if Moscow invades Ukraine, administration officials say. The administration may also decide to apply the control in a way that would potentially deprive Russian citizens of some smartphones, tablets and video game consoles. (The Washington Post, 01.23.22)
  • Germany and the U.S. have warned they could target the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline running under the Baltic Sea should Russia invade Ukraine. "We are working on a strong package of sanctions" with Western allies and it covers several aspects, "including Nord Stream 2," German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock told parliament on Jan. 27, promising serious consequences for Russia if it were to attack. Under Secretary for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland said on Jan. 27 that “if Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward." (RFE/RL, 01.27.22, Fox News, 01.27.22)
  • President Joe Biden said Jan. 25 that he would consider sanctioning Putin personally if Russia invades Ukraine. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has rejected calls for preemptive sanctions against Russia, saying that doing so would undermine the West's ability to deter Moscow from any further potential aggression against Ukraine. (ABC News, 01.25.22, RFE/RL, 01.23.22)
  • Russia hit back Jan. 26 at U.S. threats of direct sanctions against Putin, saying they would be ineffective and hurt efforts to lower tensions over Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed the threats because senior Russian officials are barred from holding assets abroad. But such a move, he said, would do serious damage to diplomatic attempts to ease tensions over Ukraine. (The Moscow Times, 01.26.22)
  • The Biden administration on Jan. 20 imposed sanctions on four individuals accused of working at the direction of the Russian government to destabilize Ukraine. Two of them are members of Ukraine’s parliament. (CNBC, 01.20.22)
  • The head of Ukraine’s parliament sent a letter to several U.S. senators outlining specific demands for sanctioning Russia over its military posture near Ukraine’s border. (The Hill, 01.28.22)
• Moscow is seeking the withdrawal of NATO forces and weapons from Romania and Bulgaria as part of its sweeping security demands from the U.S.-led alliance, Russia’s Foreign Ministry said Jan. 21. Russia demands written responses from the United States on its proposed security guarantees, which includes the withdrawal of NATO’s infrastructure from eastern European countries that became members of the Western military bloc after 1997. (The Moscow Times, 01.21.22)
• Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, has said Russia opposes the deployment of weapons in Ukraine not only by NATO member states but by other Western countries. While the matter of NATO’s non-expansion is “very important,” Russia is seeking other guarantees as well, he told reporters, pointing specifically to offensive weapons and missiles deployed in Ukraine and other countries on the basis of bilateral agreements. Later it could be, “‘no, no, we’re not NATO… Let’s say it’s under an agreement between the United States and Ukraine, Britain and Ukraine, it has nothing to do with NATO… It is about our bilateral relations.’ However, it is all the same for us," Medvedev said. Russia hears “whispers from time to time that Ukraine will not join NATO in the years to come. But this is not what we are talking about here," he added. (TASS, 01.27.22)
  • Russia and the U.S. must engage in diplomacy to resolve the standoff over Ukraine and not build up tensions to score political points, Medvedev said. (Reuters, 01.27.22)
  • The people of Ukraine will eventually elect leaders who will fix relations with Russia and will recognize certain geopolitical realities, including Crimea, Medvedev said. (TASS, 01.27.22)

• Germany’s naval chief has resigned after controversial comments he made about Russia and Crimea sparked a damaging diplomatic row with Kyiv. Vice-Adm. Kay-Achim Schönbach was filmed at an Indian think-tank last week saying that Putin should be given the “respect he probably deserves” and claiming that Crimea would never be returned to Ukraine. (Financial Times, 01.22.22)
  • Germany will send a field hospital to Ukraine, Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said on Jan. 22, while once again rejecting Kyiv's calls for weapons delivery as fears of a Russian invasion grow. Berlin has already delivered respirators to Ukraine and severely injured Ukrainian soldiers are currently being treated in Bundeswehr hospitals, the minister told Welt am Sonntag newspaper. (AFP, 01.22.22)
• Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has called on the United States and Europe to treat Ukraine as part of the West that will never again be dominated by Moscow. “The future of Euro-Atlantic security will be decided in Ukraine," Kuleba said. Kuleba also accused Germany of "undermining unity" and "encouraging Vladimir Putin" by refusing to supply weapons to Kyiv. (RFE/RL, 01.24.22, RFE/RL, 01.22.22)
• U.S. Republicans running in high-profile primary races aren't racing to defend Ukraine against a possible Russian invasion. They're settling on a different line of attack: Blame Biden, not Putin. GOP operatives working in 2022 primary races tell Axios they worry they'll alienate the base if they push to commit American resources or troops to help Ukraine fight Russia. (Axios, 01.27.22)
• The EU has announced a €1.3 billion financial aid package for Ukraine to help it cope with pressure from Russia. Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, said today that the bloc would offer €1.2 billion in emergency loans and €120 million in grants. (Financial Times, 01.24.22)
• In the months since the Russian troop buildup began, Moscow and its online army of allies have pushed out old arguments about western Ukrainians being aligned with Nazism, falsely accused the United States of using proxy forces to plot a chemical attack and claimed that Russia’s planned military operations were intended to protect ethnic Russians or pre-empt action by NATO, according to researchers. (New York Times, 01.25.22)
• Pope Francis on Jan. 26 led a day of prayer for peace in Ukraine, calling for dialogue to prevail over partisan interests to resolve the West's standoff with Russia. (Reuters, 01.26.22)

II. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security:

• No significant developments.

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• Kim Jong-un, the leader of North Korea fired off two cruise missiles on Jan. 25 and two more ballistic missiles on Jan. 27, for a total of six weapons tests this month, equal to the number for all of last year. (The New York Times, 01.27.22)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• A senior U.S. envoy working to revive the Iran nuclear deal has left the negotiating team amid a report of differences of opinion on the way forward as the attempt to restore the deal intensifies. Richard Nephew is "no longer serving" as deputy special envoy for Iran, a senior State Department official said Jan. 24. The official did not give a reason for the change. (RFE/RL, 01.25.22)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• A Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman said on Jan. 27 that NATO should pull back forces from Eastern Europe and that such a move would help reduce military tensions in the region. (Reuters, 01.27.22)
• Estonia’s prime minister called for a greater U.S. presence in the Baltics to deter Russia as she made a plea for the West to remain united and not give even the smallest concession to Moscow. She added that Estonia, a NATO member, would like to see “the big allies present in our region,” an indirect call for U.S. troops to be based in the Baltics. (Financial Times, 01.24.22)
• Latvia’s defense minister says no country in the West wants a conflict with Russia, but that Ukraine has a right to defend itself as fellow NATO Baltic states send assistance to Kyiv. (RFE/RL, 01.24.22)
• Budapest, which has good relations with Moscow, has threatened to stay out of the alliance’s efforts to support Kyiv, citing longtime disagreements with Ukraine, but is expected to be part of a broader strengthening of NATO’s eastern flank as fears of conflict rise. (Financial Times, 01.27.22)
• Romania is strongly in favor of NATO’s preparations. President Klaus Iohannis said Jan. 26 that “the security crisis created by Russia is not just about Ukraine … but about the security of the entire Euro-Atlantic area.” He added that Russia wanted to “unacceptably change the parameters of the European security architecture.” Romania, which shares a 600 kilometer border with Ukraine, was preparing for war and potential consequences such as a refugee crisis, an economic downturn or Russian curbs on energy supplies, Iohannis said. (Financial Times, 01.27.22)
• The Biden administration is weighing a Turkish proposal to buy a fleet of F-16 jet fighters that officials in Ankara say would mend ruptured security links between the countries, but the sale faces opposition from members of Congress critical of Turkey’s growing ties to Russia. (Wall Street Journal, 01.22.22)
• BBC News did not air a segment claiming that nuclear war is imminent between Russia and NATO. A clip purporting to show an authentic BBC News segment is fake and was previously addressed by the news outlet when it circulated in 2018. (Reuters, 01.24.22)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Beijing is urging the U.S. to take Russia’s concerns about security seriously, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in a telephone conversation with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. "The security of one state cannot be ensured by harming the security of another… Likewise, regional security cannot be ensured by strengthening or expanding military alliances," he added. Wang called for abandoning the Cold War mentality and for entering into negotiations to create a balanced, effective, viable security mechanism in Europe. He also warned the U.S. and its allies not to “hype up the crisis” around Ukraine and told Blinken that to resolve the conflict, the parties should abide by the principles laid out in the Minsk II agreement. (TASS, 01.27.22, Financial Times, 01.27.22, The Wall Street Journal, 01.27.22)
  • Chinese state media Twitter accounts are echoing Russia's talking points on Ukraine, Brookings Institution's Jessica Brandt noted in a Twitter thread. (Axios China, 01.25.22)
  • Russian Ambassador to China Andrei Denisov praised China’s understanding of Moscow’s stance on Western security guarantees on Jan. 25. The U.S.-Russian negotiations "do not affect China in any way. China has nothing to do with it. Nevertheless, this is certainly a major event in international life. And our Chinese friends are closely following … the talks," Denisov said. (TASS, 01.25.22)
  • The United States on Jan. 27 called on China to use its influence with Russia to urge a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis, but policy experts doubted Beijing would back Washington in the standoff. (Reuters, 01.27.22)
• Days before heading to Beijing for a summit meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin on Jan. 25 wished his country's athletes "triumphant performances" at next month's Winter Olympics in China and criticized the diplomatic boycott announced by several global powers. Putin plans to be among 30+ heads of state attending the Feb. 4 opening ceremony of the Games to be officiated by Xi. (The Moscow Times, 01.25.22, South China Morning Post, 01.28.22, The Wall Street Journal, 01.27.22)
• A Russia-China inter-governmental agreement on cooperation in establishing a lunar station is ready and may be signed shortly, Russia’s Ambassador to China Andrei Denisov announced at a press conference Jan. 25. (TASS, 01.25.22)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

• Moscow has asked Washington to return all American nuclear weapons from NATO countries to U.S. territory as part of its push for security guarantees, the director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Department for Nonproliferation and Arms Control, Vladimir Yermakov, has told TASS. "We insist that NATO’s ‘joint nuclear missions’ be stopped immediately, that all American nuclear weapons be returned to U.S. territory and the infrastructure that allows their rapid deployment must be eliminated,” he said, adding that the proposal was part of the package of security guarantees Moscow is seeking from Washington. According to the diplomat, "currently there are about 200 American nuclear air bombs of the B61 family" in five non-nuclear NATO countries; thus, the alliance is capable of rapidly deploying nuclear weapons able to reach strategic targets on Russian territory. (TASS, 01.27.22)
  • Yermakov also said on Jan. 27 that a nuclear missile crisis between Moscow and Washington was unavoidable without measures to ensure restraint and predictability, the TASS news agency reported. The remark came a day after the United States and NATO formally responded to Russian security proposals in ways that the Kremlin said failed to address its key concerns but left open the possibility for further dialogue. (Reuters, 01.27.22)

Counter-terrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security:

• According to a DHS Intelligence and Analysis bulletin sent to law enforcement partners nationwide, the U.S. government assesses that Russia would consider a cyberattack if "a US or NATO response to a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine threatened its long-term national security." (CBS News, 01.24.22)
• The details of 48 million Russian COVID-19 vaccination certificates are reportedly being sold on the dark web for $100,000. Journalists identified a vulnerability with an online government portal containing vaccination data in 2021 and reported it to Russia's Communications Ministry and Rostelecom, the country's largest provider of digital services but said they received no response. (RFE/RL, 01.27.22)

Energy exports from CIS:

• The operator of the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline running from Russia to Germany has created a German subsidiary company to bring the project in line with German law. (RFE/RL, 01.26.22)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• U.S. stocks finished slightly higher on Jan. 24, reversing a steep slide caused by uncertainty over the possibility of conflict between Russia and Ukraine and inflation-fighting measures from the Fed. Gold advanced, meanwhile, as the previous week’s bruising sell-off bolstered its safe-haven appeal. (AP, 01.24.22, Reuters, 01.24.22, Reuters, 01.24.22)
  • Bitcoin tumbled to its lowest level in six months Jan. 24 as fears of a Russian attack on Ukraine saw riskier assets worldwide extend their sell-off. Fears of a conflict pummeled shares across the world while bolstering the dollar and oil. (Reuters, 01.24.22)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Russia’s Ambassador to the U.S. Anatoly Antonov told reporters Jan. 26 that the State Department has said he would have to leave the country by April unless Moscow meets Washington’s conditions concerning visas for his U.S. counterpart’s security detail. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the following day that the “threat is serious.” (TASS, 01.26.22, TASS, 01.27.22)
• U.S. citizen Marc Fogel was arrested in a Moscow airport with marijuana and is being held for "large scale" drug smuggling, Russian authorities said Jan. 27 amid soaring tensions with Washington. Fogel, who was reportedly detained in August, enjoyed diplomatic immunity before May last year, the Russian Interior Ministry said. Fogel, who denies the charge against him, formerly worked at the U.S. Embassy in Moscow; at the time of his arrest, upon returning from New York with his wife, he was working as a teacher at the Anglo-American School in Moscow. (AFP, 01.27.22, RFE/RL, 01.27.22)
• Authorities in southwestern Russia said Jan. 26 they have detained a U.S. citizen on criminal charges of assaulting a police officer. The unnamed 27-year-old American suspect is accused of kicking a police officer “several times” while resisting arrest on suspicion of violating public order on public transport while drunk. The incident was said to have taken place on Jan. 17. (The Moscow Times, 01.26.22)

III. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia recorded almost one million excess deaths between the start of the pandemic and the end of 2021, as the country also reported its sharpest annual fall in population since the fall of the Soviet Union. (The Moscow Times, 01.28.22)
• While global media outlets are focused on whether or not Russia will invade Ukraine, Russian state media views the rising tensions from a different angle. Over the past 24 hours evening news coverage and leading Russian newspapers have focused on U.S.-Russia negotiations and the likelihood of a Ukrainian attack on Russia-supported separatists in the eastern Ukrainian Donbas region. (The Moscow Times, 01.27.22)
• Russia added Alexei Navalny and several of his top aides to the country’s “terrorists and extremists” register Jan. 25. (The Moscow Times, 01.25.22)
  • Russia issued an arrest warrant for Oleg Navalny, the brother of jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny on Jan. 26, part of ongoing efforts to silence opposition voices critical of the Kremlin. (AFP, 01.26.22)
  • Violetta Grudina, an activist ally of Navalny told Reuters Jan. 27 she had fled Russia to avoid jail, while two of his top aides said they had received letters with threats to themselves and their families. (Reuters, 01.27.22)
• Russia’s financial markets staged a decisive fightback Jan. 27, climbing strongly after weeks of heavy losses. Russia’s leading stock market was up more than 7% in dollar terms during trading in Moscow on Jan. 27. The ruble gained more than 2% against the U.S. dollar and 3% against the euro—reversing a week of steep declines for Russia’s currency. Earlier, on Jan. 24 Moscow’s MOEX stock index fell more than 7.5% and yields on Russia’s government debt hit their highest level in six years, as the potential for Western-imposed sanctions prompted investors to dump Russian assets. The central bank stepped in by limiting foreign currency purchases as the ruble hit a 14-month low of 78.9 to the dollar. (The Moscow Times, 01.27.22, Financial Times, 01.24.22)
  • Russian billionaires have lost a combined $28 billion in recent days amid drastic falls in the value of Russian companies and the ruble in response to mounting fears of military conflict. (The Moscow Times, 01.26.22)
• Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov said Jan. 25 that his southern Russian region would not be able to survive a month without Moscow’s multi-billion-dollar subsidies. Kadyrov estimated that Russian handouts in Chechnya total 300 billion rubles ($3.8 billion) a year. According to the RBC news website, Moscow’s grants and subsidies to the republic of Chechnya totaled 125.6 billion rubles ($1.6 billion) in 2020. (The Moscow Times, 01.25.22)
• Russia’s coronavirus cases had risen by 88,816 to 11,404,617 in the past 24 hours, the anti-coronavirus crisis center said Jan. 27. Hospitalizations rose by 4.8% from the day before, to 12,807. On Jan. 24 Russia had reported a new record number of COVID-19 cases confirmed in the past 24 hours as the Omicron variant spread across the country, with that daily count jumping to 65,109, from 63,205 a day earlier. Russian health authorities have shortened the required isolation period for people who come in contact with COVID-19 patients from 14 days to seven. (TASS, 01.27.22, Reuters, 01.24.22, RFE/RL, 01.26.22)
• Russian public opinion on the Central Bank’s proposal to ban transactions with cryptocurrency is split almost evenly, with about 32% viewing it negatively, almost the same percentage supporting the idea and 33% indifferent, according to a VTsIOM-Sputnik poll. (TASS, 01.27.22)
• Russia plans to develop a national system for monitoring greenhouse gases, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said Jan. 27. (TASS, 01.27.22)

Defense and aerospace:

• See special section on Ukraine-Russia-NATO crisis above.

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• Russia's Supreme Court has shortened the sentence of one of two former neo-Nazi activists convicted and jailed for their involvement in the killing of lawyer Stanislav Markelov and journalist Anastasia Baburova in 2009. (RFE/RL, 01.27.22)
• Retired federal Judge Saidi Yangulbayev and his daughter have fled Russia after his wife was "abducted" by masked men who introduced themselves as Chechen police. The couple’s son Abubakar is a human rights lawyer and activist. The U.S. State Department on Jan. 27 called for the immediate release of all people who are being “unjustly detained” in Chechnya, citing “dozens of reported abductions and arbitrary detentions in recent weeks.” (RFE/RL, 01.24.22, RFE/RL, 01.27.22)

IV. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Putin hailed warm economic ties between Russia and Italy in a controversial video call with leading Italian CEOs on Jan. 26. The call sparked concern in Italy and across Europe, as it comes at a time when the EU is trying to finalize a package of economic sanctions to slap on Moscow in the event it escalates aggression against Ukraine. (The Moscow Times, 01.26.22)
• Jair Bolsonaro insists he will go ahead with a trip to meet Vladimir Putin in Russia despite the escalating military crisis along the Ukrainian border. The Brazilian presidents told supporters he would fly to Moscow in late February to improve trade ties. (The Guardian, 01.28.22)
• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met with French President Emmanuel Macron in Berlin on Jan. 25, with the two leaders welcoming diplomatic efforts to resolve the Ukraine-Russia crisis. "We will never give up dialogue with Moscow," Macron said. (DW, 01.25.22)
• German prosecutors say they have arrested a Russian scientist accused of spying for Moscow, alleging he passed on classified information about Europe's Ariane rocket program while working at a German university. (RFE/RL, 01.27.22)
• Russia is interested in good, mutually beneficial relations with the European Union, the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, told reporters. He recalled a time when trade turnover with the EU was about 500 billion euros; then, however, trade "almost halved" and everyone involved has lost out because of this, he added. (TASS, 01.27.22)
• The European Court of Human Rights has held a preliminary hearing to decide whether to hear a case filed by the Netherlands and Ukraine that seeks to hold Russia responsible for the 2014 shooting down of a passenger airliner over eastern Ukraine that killed 298 people. (RFE/RL, 01.26.22)

Ukraine:

• Russia’s ruling, pro-Kremlin party, United Russia, will ask the country’s leadership to deliver military supplies to eastern Ukraine’s separatist-held breakaway regions, a senior lawmaker said Jan. 26, ​​a new escalation of rhetoric amid ongoing tensions over Ukraine. (The Moscow Times, 01.26.22)
• Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said that city authorities are tasked to ensure that the Ukrainian capital's critical infrastructure is in good working order, and bomb shelters are ready to accommodate people in case of a possible Russian attack. (RFE/RL, 01.26.22)
• When the notorious warden of a prison controlled by Russian-backed forces in eastern Ukraine told a court during his arraignment in November that he had been living in Kyiv for more than two years, many people were shocked. Denys Kulykovskiy, a former Ukrainian penitentiary officer who sided with the Kremlin-backed separatists after the downfall of President Viktor Yanukovych in 2014, relocated to Kyiv in 2019 after he began cooperating with the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) on a counterintelligence operation, three former SBU officers told RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service, which investigated the matter in cooperation with Bellingcat. (RFE/RL, 01.22.22)
• Ukraine has repaid more than $100 million in debt to a company owned by Rinat Akhmetov, the nation’s richest man, in a possible sign that tensions between the tycoon and the president are easing. (RFE/RL, 01.24.22)
• A national guard soldier in Ukraine opened fire on Jan. 27 at a missile and rocket factory in the eastern part of the country, killing five people, the police said. While details of the shooting were scarce and there was no immediate sign that it was related to the military buildup in the region, it underscored the dangers of the moment as fears of a Russian attack on Ukraine grow by the day. The gunman fled the scene, leading to a sprawling manhunt that lasted for hours before a suspect was taken into custody, according to the police. (The New York Times, 01.27.22)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Lawmakers in Kazakhstan have proposed stripping former President Nursultan Nazarbaev of more of his lifetime privileges after deadly protests swept across the country, in part fueled by anger over the accumulation of vast wealth by the former leader's family. (RFE/RL, 01.27.22)
• Human Rights Watch has called on Kazakh authorities to thoroughly investigate all of the deadly shootings of civilians by law enforcement officers during unrest earlier this month in the former Soviet republic’s largest city, Almaty. (RFE/RL, 01.26.22)
• Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev has fired another relative of his predecessor, Nursultan Nazarbaev, in the wake of deadly protests that engulfed the country earlier this month. The presidential press service said on January 25 that the chief of the Central Election Commission, Berik Imashev, had been replaced by Nurlan Abdirov. (RFE/RL, 01.25.22)
• Kyrgyz and Tajik border guards exchanged fire on Jan. 27 amid a standoff over a blocked road, in the latest clash between the former Soviet neighbors following a similar violent incident last year that killed dozens. (Reuters, 01.27.22)
• Millions of people were left without power after a huge blackout hit three Central Asian countries Jan. 25 following an unspecified accident, officials in the ex-Soviet region said. The capitals of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan as well as Kazakhstan's economic hub Almaty suffered power cuts at around lunchtime local time, with media and officials reporting that the blackouts had extended far into the provinces of the three countries. Central Asian countries have seen their grids burdened by drought and by a boom in cryptocurrency mining in the region, especially in Kazakhstan—linked in part to a de facto ban on the practice in next-door China. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 01.25.22)
• Rosatom and the management of the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant have signed an agreement to look into the possible building of new Russian-designed nuclear power units on the site of the current plant at Metsamor in Armenia. (World Nuclear News, 01.21.22)