5 Things to Know

1. Russia is stepping up a dialogue on strategic stability with China, while also calling such a dialogue with the U.S. necessary and conceding the possibility of a trilateral discussion of this issue. “With China … we hold dialogue on strategic stability issues across the board. And we will expand this dialogue,” Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said this week. Peskov also said that the "dialogue between Russia and the U.S. on arms control is necessary, especially concerning strategic stability.” Perhaps, most importantly, Peskov said in reference to the possibility of a RF-PRC-U.S. trialogue on strategic stability, “So far, there have been no specific negotiations and there is no understanding yet of when such contacts could begin and where," he said. Putin’s spokesman—who has also observed this week that the United States' shift in foreign policy "largely aligns" with Russia’s position—made these comments one day after Donald Trump had renewed his call for the trilateral “denuclearization” of the U.S., Russia and China. Both China and Russia have previously rejected calls from U.S. leaders—including Trump during his first and second presidency—to engage in trilateral nuclear arms control discussions with the U.S. In addition, Putin had declined to discuss issues associated with nuclear weapons separately from other major items on the U.S.-Russian agenda during Bident’s presidency. Thus, Kremlin’s recently stated preparedness to resume dialogue with the U.S. on strategic stability and Peskov’s hint that there could, after all, be a RF-U.S.-PRC trialogue on strategic stability, are significant. They indicate Putin’s desire to make Trump more interested in rebuilding those of the aspects of the bilateral relations that are in Russia’s interest.*
2. This week saw U.S. military aid to Ukraine suspended and its intelligence sharing with Ukraine limited, if not cut off, as a result of Zelenskyy’s Feb. 28 bust-up with Trump and Vance in the White House. If protracted, the suspension of supplies of the following U.S. military equipment will have the greatest negative impact, according to the Economist, WSJ and Istories: Patriots, HIMARS and ATACMS. As hurtful, if not more, would be rendering Starlink inoperable in Ukraine, according to FT. Unless the suspension is lifted, Ukraine will run out of its last American military supplies in “two or three months,” and without these supplies Ukraine can sustain operations until mid-2025, according to Western and Ukrainian officials cited by FT, ISW and Bloomberg.
3. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has become a war of attrition, which Russia has historically tended to prevail in, while isolating Russia over that conflict is no longer a sustainable strategy for the U.S., Trump’s Ukraine war envoy Keith Kellogg told a CFR event March 6. “The one thing you never want to do with the Russians is get into an attrition war,” he said, estimating that casualties on both sides of the war average 600 daily deaths, with Ukrainian military fatalities already surpassing those the U.S. suffered in the Vietnam and Korean Wars combined. Meanwhile, Russia has over 490,000 soldiers deployed to Ukraine, “a force that is larger than today’s active United States Army,” Kellogg warned. Trump’s envoy also criticized the Biden administration’s non-engagement of Russia during the war. “The continued isolation and lack of engagement with the Russians as the war in Ukraine continued is no longer a viable or a sustainable strategy and is certainly not a responsible approach diplomatically for the United States to continue,” he said. Kellogg also criticized the Biden administration’s approach of funding aid to Ukraine. “America has funded this war with over $170 billion. This year alone, with the most recent tranche of over $60 billion, is an amount larger than we funded the United States Marine Corps this year … When a nation is [more] concerned about filling somebody else’s potholes than their own potholes, they fail,” he said. Kellogg then made it clear that the U.S.-Ukrainian deal on Ukraine’s mineral resources is meant to be a financial recuperation strategy for the U.S. taxpayer. We could not find any reports indicating whether Kellogg will participate in the U.S.-Ukrainian talks in Saudi Arabia next week. It has been previously claimed that he didn’t participate in the U.S.-Russian talks in Saudi Arabia because he was to focus on the Ukraine and Europe tracks. His absence from the U.S.-Ukrainian talks would raise further questions about what role he plays in his capacity as Trump’s special envoy for the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
4. Former Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Valeriy Zaluzhnyi has made some remarkable observations, deviating from Zelenskyy’s “party line” on issues such as benefits of NATO membership. Speaking at an event with students of Ukrainian Catholic University’ public policy school in Lviv, Zaluzhnyi—who could be a serious contender for Ukraine’s presidency¹—acknowledged the lack of combat personnel and the impossibility of defeating a nuclear-armed Russia, according to Telegraf and The Moscow Times. “There is practically no one who can really fight" on the Ukrainian side, which, in his estimate, has lost some 50,000 soldiers killed and 300,000 wounded, he said. Zaluzhnyi—who is currently serving as Ukraine’s ambassador to the U.K.—emphasized that Russia is also suffering significant losses, which he put at 250,000 dead.² "Ukraine's victory can only be achieved when Russia disintegrates … But before that, someone must take away its nuclear weapons,” Zaluzhnyi said. In Zaluzhnyi’s opinion Ukraine's membership in NATO will not provide it with the necessary political protection the country needs. "NATO is outdated both morally and physically. And, most likely, it will not give us any political protection.”Zaluzhnyi said it would be beneficial for Ukraine to be a member of a European security architecture that has yet to be established, possibly based on the United Kingdom's Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF).
5. The Kremlin has agreed to assist Trump’s administration in communicating with Iran on issues including the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program and its support for regional anti-U.S. proxies, people familiar with the situation told Bloomberg. During Biden’s presidency, the U.S. and Russia locked horns over whether they should explore solutions to individual problems (preferred by Biden for negotiating the future of New START, for instance) or try to have comprehensive talks on all key issues (preferred by Putin, pushing for a new pan-European security arrangement). Trump abandoned Biden’s insistence on compartmentalization, with the U.S. and RF now discussing issues ranging from the resumption of direct flights and the return of Russian diplomats’ missions in the U.S., to Russian-Ukrainian peace and Russian assistance to the U.S. in communicating with Iran over its nuclear program. Does this mean Trump wants to try to strike a grand U.S.-Russian bargain/deal like Putin does? Could be.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• The IAEA for the first time travelled through Russian territory rather than Ukraine to reach the Zaporizhzhia NPP, said three diplomats briefed on the matter—a blow to Kyiv’s desire to avoid international recognition of the Kremlin’s ownership claims. (Bloomberg, 03.02.25)
• Russia will restart the Zaporizhzhia NPP—occupied by Moscow’s troops since the beginning of their three-year-old invasion of Ukraine—as soon as “military and political conditions allow it,” Alexei Likhachev, head of Russia’s state nuclear corporation Rosatom, said last week in remarks reported by Russian state media. (Bellona, 03.03.25)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• Testimonies from two DPRK soldiers captured by Ukrainian forces reveal the extent of Pyongyang’s military cooperation with Moscow and the harsh conditions faced by these foreign troops on the battlefield. The two captured North Korean soldiers, 21-year-old Paek and 26-year-old Ri, told WSJ they had been told their enemies were South Korean troops supporting Ukraine. (BNE, 03.02.25)
• Lee Seongmin, a North Korean defector and human rights advocate, has become a key figure in Ukraine’s efforts to understand and counter North Korean soldiers fighting alongside Russian forces. His work has provided critical insights into the motivations and tactics of North Korean troops deployed in Ukraine, helping Kyiv adapt its strategies on the battlefield. (WSJ, 03.05.25)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• U.S. President Donald Trump said he wants to negotiate a nuclear deal with Iran and sent a letter to its leadership this week suggesting talks with the Islamic Republic, which the West fears is rapidly nearing the capability to make atomic weapons. Iran's mission to the United Nations has denied receiving any diplomatic communication from Trump on holding nuclear negotiations, contradicting Trump's March 7 claim that he sent a letter in an act of outreach to Tehran, Persian language state media have reported. (Reuters, 03.07.25, BNE, 03.07.25)

Russia agreed to assist Trump’s administration in communicating with Iran on issues including the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program and its support for regional anti-U.S. proxies, according to people familiar with the situation. Trump relayed that interest directly to President Vladimir Putin in a phone call in February and top officials from his administration discussed the matter with their Russian counterparts at talks in Saudi Arabia (Bloomberg, 03.04.25) 

Senior Russian missile and air-defense specialists traveled to Iran last year as the Islamic republic expanded its military cooperation with Moscow. (RFE/RL, 03.05.25)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Hundreds of volunteer foreigners—many of them Americans—have fought and died on the side of Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022. U.S. Marine Ethan Hertweck, 21, is one of more than 100 from 23 countries whose identification and eventual repatriation were made possible through the R.T. Weatherman Foundation, a U.S. nonprofit. (WP, 03.01.25)
• The Trump administration plans to revoke temporary legal status for approximately 240,000 Ukrainians who fled the war with Russia, potentially subjecting them to fast-track deportation. (Reuters, 03.06.25)
• The U.S. State Department has terminated a USAID program that provided hundreds of millions of dollars to restore Ukraine’s energy grid, which has been repeatedly targeted by Russian attacks. The move, which includes downsizing USAID’s presence in Ukraine, has raised concerns about the country’s economic resilience and the ability to monitor aid spending. (NBC News, 02.28.25)
• Thirty-three civilians from southwestern Russia’s Kursk region have returned home from Ukraine following negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv, presidential human rights commissioner Tatyana Moskalkova said. (MT/AFP, 03.03.25)
• On March 4, Putin stated that Russia had completed issuing passports to Ukrainians living in illegally Russian-occupied territory in Ukraine. Russia's Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev stated that 3.5 million Russian passports had been issued to Ukrainians in occupied territory, an increase from the 2.8 million reported in March 2024. (UKMOD X account, 03.07.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the past month, Russian gains slowed to 140 square miles of Ukraine’s territory (about 1 1/2 Martha’s Vineyard islands). In Russia’s Kursk Oblast, Ukraine lost 4 square miles in the past week, according to the March 5, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (RM, 03.07.25)
• On March 6, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that in total, Russia currently controls 43,382 square miles (112,360 square kilometers) of Ukrainian territory. (RM, 03.07.25)

Saturday, March 1, 2025

• The Russian defense ministry claimed its forces had captured Skudne and Burlatske in the south of the eastern Donetsk region. They lie near the town of Velyka Novossilka, which was seized by the Russian army at the end of January. (MT/AFP, 03.01.25)
• The Ukrainian air force said Russia had launched 154 drones overnight, of which 103 were downed and 51 disappeared from the radar without causing damage or casualties. Ukrainian regional authorities, however, reported one death and several injuries. Ukraine said Russia hit the Black Sea port of Odesa with a ballistic missile March 1, damaging a civilian vessel and shipping infrastructure. (MT/AFP, 03.01.25, Bloomberg, 03.01.25)

Monday, March 3, 2025

• Ukrainian officials said March 3 that an unspecified number of people were killed in a Russian missile strike on military training grounds around 130 kilometers (80 miles) from the front line. The attack happened March 1 and targeted "an army training ground near the village of Cherkaske" outside the city of Dnipro, a military source told AFP. Ukrainian military blogger Yury Butusov claimed that between 30 and 40 soldiers were killed, while another 90 were injured. (MT/AFP, 03.03.25)
• A fire broke out at Rosneft PJSC’s Ufa refinery in the Russian republic of Bashkortostan early March 3. Local media earlier reported that nearby residents had heard “typical drone noises” before the fire occurred. (Bloomberg, 03.03.25)
• Russian soldiers appear to be using horses and donkeys to transport supplies to and from the front lines in Ukraine as high losses and insufficient production have created acute equipment shortages. (MT/AFP, 03.03.25)
• Ukrainian military intelligence indicated that about 620,000 Russian soldiers are operating in Ukraine and Kursk Oblast, an increase of about 40,000 personnel compared to late 2024. (ISW, 03.03.25)

Tuesday, March 4, 2025

• Ukrainian drones attacked two oil facilities in southern Russia’s Rostov and Samara regions overnight. Rostov region Gov. Yury Slyusar reported fires at two sites—a pipeline facility and an industrial complex near the village of Sohranovka—following drone attacks. Sohranovka is home to a gas pumping station that previously transported Russian gas across Ukraine. Slyusar said there were no casualties and that the fires were “promptly” extinguished. Another attack targeted the Syzran oil refinery in the Samara region, according to Andriy Kovalenko, spokesman for Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council's Countering Disinformation Center. (MT/AFP, 03.04.25)
• The Ukrainian military has begun recruiting 18-24-year-olds on a voluntary basis as the armed forces face a dire shortage of manpower to hold off the invading Russian troops. (RFE/RL, 03.04.25)

Wednesday, March 5, 2025

• Trump claimed that “millions of Ukrainians and Russians have been needlessly killed or wounded” in the ongoing conflict, but this statement is exaggerated. While exact casualty figures are undisclosed by both sides, Western intelligence estimates the number of troops killed and wounded in the hundreds of thousands, not millions. The United Nations reported approximately 11,700 civilian deaths and 24,600 injuries as of October 2024. (The New York Times, 03.05.25)³
• A Russian court sentenced a British man to 19 years in prison on charges of terrorism and acting as a mercenary while fighting for Ukraine, authorities in southwestern Russia’s Kursk region said March 5. James Scott Rhys Anderson, 22, was detained in November while fighting with Ukrainian forces in Kursk. (MT/AFP, 03.05.25)

Thursday, March 6, 2025

• A Russian ballistic missile killed four and wounded dozens as it hit a hotel in the central Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rih, underscoring the danger posed by pointed strikes with insufficient air-defense cover. More than 30 people were injured, almost half of whom are in a serious condition with doctors fighting for their survival. (Bloomberg, 03.06.25)
• Addressing European leaders, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine was losing 40 soldiers a day, with another 100 injured daily, according to diplomats present. (WSJ, 03.07.25)
• Former Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and now Ambassador of Ukraine to the U.K. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi was quoted March 6 as saying: “There is practically no one who can really fight" on the Ukrainian side, which, in his estimate, has lost some 50,000 soldiers killed and 300,000 wounded, according to Ukraine’s Telegraf and The Moscow Times. Ukraine simply does not have enough people for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to reach Moscow: "You know, it seems to me that even if we start conscripting girls, there still won't be enough of them. We need to approach this objectively." Zaluzhnyi emphasized that Russia is also suffering significant losses, which he put at 250,000 dead. He said Russia can mobilize new soldiers, but it is unclear whether they would be able to fight effectively.⁴ (Ukraine’s Telegraf, 03.06.25, The Moscow Times, 03.06.25, RM, 03.06.25)
  • Zaluzhnyi was quoted March 6 as saying "Ukraine's victory can only be achieved when Russia disintegrates. Ideally, into 27, and even better, into 69 separate principalities. But before that, someone must take away its nuclear weapons.” (Ukraine’s Telegraf, 03.06.25, The Moscow Times, 03.06.25, RM, 03.06.25)
  • Zaluzhnyi said Russia is waging a war of attrition against Ukraine, attacking not only military targets, but also energy and civilian infrastructure. "Robots rustle across the sky, knocking out all the energy infrastructure. Then expensive missiles fly - specifically targeting schools, universities, hospitals. This is a new war.” (Ukraine’s Telegraf and The Moscow Times, 03.06.25)
• Trump’s Ukraine envoy Kieth Kellogg said at CFR’s Securing Ukraine's Future symposium March 6:“Just on the Ukrainian side alone, more soldiers have been killed, the Ukrainians, than the United States lost in the Vietnam War and the Korean War combined. Russia has over 490,000 soldiers deployed to Ukraine, a force that is larger than today’s active United States Army. The casualties of this war have surpassed one million. And on an average, this war is costing an average of 600 soldiers killed in action per day." (CFR, 03.07.25)

Friday, March 7, 2025

• On the night of March 6-7, Russian forces launched a combined missile attack on Ukraine, firing 67 missiles of various types. Ukrainian air defense systems intercepted 34 of them. The attack was repelled using anti-aircraft missile units, electronic warfare systems, mobile fire groups, and fighter aircraft, including F-16s and Mirage-2000s. This marked the first time French fighter jets, which arrived in Ukraine a month ago, were deployed to counter a Russian assault. By 10:00 AM, 134 aerial targets were confirmed destroyed, including 25 Kh-101/Kh-555 missiles, 8 Kalibr missiles, 1 Kh-59/69 missile and 100 Shahed drones. (RBC Ukraine, 03.07.25)
  • Ukraine deployed French Mirage 2000 fighter jets for the first time to repel this year’s biggest Russian aerial strike that targeted civilian and energy infrastructure across the country overnight. The jets delivered by Paris about a month ago were engaged in air defense alongside U.S.-made F16s, Ukraine’s Air Force command said on Telegram. (Bloomberg, 03.07.25)
• Russia launched a massive missile and drone attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on March 7, targeting facilities across the country, Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko reported. Air raid alerts were issued nationwide as Kalibr cruise missiles and Tu-95 bombers were deployed. Emergency crews worked to stabilize electricity and gas supplies, with Halushchenko urging citizens to stay in shelters. In Kharkiv, a civilian infrastructure site was hit, injuring five people and damaging a nearby residential building. A strike in Ternopil disrupted gas supplies but caused no casualties. (Meduza, 03.07.25)
  • Having already ravaged the country’s power plants, Moscow has stepped up attacks on oil and gas facilities. Ukraine’s largest national oil and gas company, Naftogaz Group, said the overnight attack was the 17th aimed at its facilities during the course of the war. (NYT, 03.07.25)
• The total number of Russians killed in the war with Ukraine is close to the 200,000 mark. The most likely estimate, based on two different methods, falls within the range of 170,000-190,000, though it may underestimate losses from the past few months. Meanwhile, some reports suggest that about half of the total casualties occurred in 2024. During the 2024 offensive, Russian forces captured approximately 2,600 square kilometers, which accounts for 0.4% of Ukraine's territory within its 1992 borders. This means that for every kilometer gained, between 28 and 36 Russian soldiers were killed. (Re: Russia, 03.04.25)
• Changes in Russia’s recruitment and troop replenishment methods have led to a steadily aging army. In 2022, 40% of confirmed deaths were among those aged 20 to 30. By 2023, the largest group (also around 40%) consisted of 30-year-olds. In 2024, the primary source of new troops became “commercial volunteers,” further increasing the average age of the casualties. Among them, more than a third of those killed were between 40 and 50 years old. (Re: Russia, 04.03.25)
• Russian pro-war Telegram channel “Rybar” claimed March 7 that Russian forces have taken Stara Sorochina and Nikolaevka in the Kursk direction. No confirmaton of this claim by Ukraine could be found. (RM, 03.07.25)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

Friday, Feb. 28, 2025

• According to the Pentagon, about $3.85 billion remains of the Ukraine aid that Congress has authorized for additional withdrawals from the Defense Department's stockpile. A former senior defense official from the Biden administration said the last of the arms Ukraine had purchased from U.S. defense companies would be shipped within the next six months. With no new aid announced since Trump’s inauguration, the final shipments of Biden-era goods to Ukraine have slowed to a trickle. (NYT, 03.02.25)
• U.S. national security adviser Mike Waltz has said that before Zelenskyy left Washington Feb. 28, the U.S. made clear that it could not “keep giving billions and billions with no end in sight” to Ukraine. Waltz told CNN’s State of the Union program that it was premature to talk about security guarantees. (FT, 03.02.25)

Sunday, March 2, 2025

• British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has unveiled a four-step plan agreed with European leaders and top representatives of NATO and the EU to support Ukraine and show they remain united in the face of Russia's aggression. The British leader said it was a "time to act" for Europe in ensuring Ukraine's security, backing up his call at a summit in London on March 2 by pledging 1.6 billion pounds ($2 billion) in export financing to supply 5,000 air defense missiles to Kyiv. The summit agreed that military aid must continue to flow to Ukraine, that Kyiv must be at the table for peace talks with Russia, that Europe work to deter any future Russian moves against Ukraine, and the formation of a "coalition of the willing" that will defend and guarantee peace in Ukraine after a deal is reached. (RFE/RL, 03.02.25)
  • Macron told Le Figaro newspaper after the gathering that the EU should provide €200 billion ($208 billion) to boost its defense capabilities. (Bloomberg, 03.03.25)
• The total amount of U.S. aid to Ukraine is 114 billion euros, while all of Europe has allocated 132 billion, according to calculations by the Kiel Institute for World Economy. But it is not all about the money. Among the weapons supplied by the U.S., there are several critically important items for the Ukrainian Armed Forces that will most likely not be replaced, experts say. In Europe, they produce little or none at all. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will not be able to replenish stocks of missiles for Patriot air defense systems, MLRS and HIMARS missiles. Ukraine also depends on America’s Starlink as well as partially on intelligence. (Istories, 03.02.25)
  • Ukrainian front-line commanders are increasingly concerned that the military has grown too reliant on Starlink, a product of Musk's SpaceX, and that it could become the latest pressure point as the White House pushes Ukraine to engage in peace talks with Russia and sign a deal giving the United States access to its minerals. The vast majority of Starlink terminals in Ukraine are not provided by the United States. According to official estimates, Ukraine has secured 47,000 terminals since the war began in 2022. Of these, 24,500 were provided by Poland and 10,000 by Germany, and 5,000 were facilitated by USAID and other donors, including SpaceX itself. (WP, 03.07.25)

Monday, March 3, 2025

• The long unthinkable prospect of Ukraine fighting without U.S. weapons, equipment or intelligence looks set to become a reality after the White House on March 3 announced it would cut military aid to Kyiv. A senior Ukrainian intelligence official said that Ukraine would probably run out of the last American military supplies in “two or three months.” “After that, it will be very difficult for us,” the official told FT. “It will not be a total collapse, but we will be forced to withdraw from areas more quickly.” (FT, 03.04.25)
  • If protracted, the suspension of supplies of the following U.S. military equipment will have the greatest negative impact, according to the Economist, WSJ and Istories: Patriots, HIMARS and ATACMS. As hurtful, if not more, would be rendering Starlink inoperable in Ukraine, according to FT. Unless the suspension is lifted, Ukraine will run out of its last American military supplies in “two or three months,” according to a senior Ukrainian official. (RM, 03.06.25)
• Ireland’s government will propose changes to its rules for sending troops abroad, as the neutral country ramps up its practical support for Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 03.03.25)

Tuesday, March 4, 2025

• The frontline in Ukraine is not at imminent risk of collapse, but the pause in U.S. aid will increasingly strain Ukraine’s defenses. About 90% of U.S. weapons committed to Ukraine have already been delivered, with the remaining 10% expected by August 2025. Ukraine’s arsenal is supplied 30% by the U.S., 30% by European partners and 40% by domestic production. While European support and domestic manufacturing will help sustain Ukraine’s efforts, the aid suspension will hinder its ability to defend itself and conduct offensive operations at current levels. (Institute for the Study of War, 03.04.25)
• Western officials estimate Ukraine can sustain operations until mid-2025 with existing aid, but shortages of Patriot missiles could leave critical infrastructure vulnerable to Russian strikes within weeks. While the frontline is not at imminent risk of collapse, the pause will hinder Ukraine’s ability to defend itself and conduct offensive operations, with European support and domestic production partially offsetting the loss of U.S. supplies. (Institute for the Study of War, 03.04.25)
• In Moscow, Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesperson, told reporters March 4 that the U.S. pause in military aid to Ukraine could push Kyiv to join a peace process. “This would probably be the best contribution to the cause of peace,” Peskov said, according to RIA Novosti. Russia expects the U.S. to lift sanctions as Trump moves to normalize relations with Moscow, Peskov added. (FT, 03.04.25)
• An Economist-YouGov poll in February showed that fewer than 1 in 5 Americans preferred that Russia control at least "some" territory in Ukraine. Of course, those are people's preferences, not what they realistically expect. But the poll also asked what people felt the likely outcome of the war was, and just 1 in 5 expected Russia to get half or more of Ukraine's territory. (WP, 03.04.25)
• Overall, Ukraine currently builds or finances about 55% of its military hardware. The U.S. supplies around 20%, while Europe supplies 25%, according to one Western official. (WSJ, 03.04.25)
• Nearly half of Ukrainians (46%) believe Ukraine can continue fighting Russia even if U.S. military support ends, according to a March 1 survey by Gradus Research. However, 36% think Ukraine would struggle without American aid. Zelenskyy’s approval rating has risen to 49%, and 58% of respondents oppose holding elections during the war. The survey also found that the U.S. has dropped to 11th place in Ukrainians’ list of friendly countries, with the U.K. and Baltic states ranking highest. (iStories, 03.04.25)

Wednesday, March 5, 2025

• The U.S. has cut off intelligence sharing with Kyiv, including targeting data crucial for strikes on Russian forces, in a move that could seriously hamper the Ukrainian military’s ability to target Russian forces. U.S. intelligence has also been crucial for Ukraine’s early warning systems against Russian attacks. While the U.S. has also formally blocked its allies from sharing U.S. intelligence with Ukraine, two officials said that recipients with assets inside the country were likely to continue passing on relevant intelligence to Kyiv.⁵ The suspension, aimed at pressuring Ukraine into peace talks, could be lifted if Zelenskyy demonstrates commitment to negotiations. (WSJ, 03.05.25, Bloomberg, 03.05.25, WP, 03.05.25, FT, 03.06.25)
  • CIA Director John Ratcliffe confirmed the latest move March 5, telling Fox Business that the United States has paused both intelligence-sharing and weapons systems in the aftermath of a contentious Oval Office meeting last week between Trump and Zelenskyy. Ratcliffe said the pauses would "go away" once it was clear Zelenskyy was committed to peace. (WP, 03.06.25)
  • Washington’s pause on sharing military intelligence with Ukraine has affected information that was used to warn of Russian drone and missile strikes on military and civilian targets. (Meduza, 03.06.25)
  • “That’s a pretty major concession to Russia, to constrain Ukraine’s ability to target and hit Russian forces,” CBS’ Margaret Brennan, who was moderating the conversation with Keith Kellogg at CFR, said of the cutoff on intelligence sharing. “This pressure really seems to be directly impacting potentially what they can do on the battlefield.” “Very candidly, they brought it on themselves, the Ukrainians,” Kellogg said. Asked what Ukraine will have to do to turn intelligence sharing and flow of military aid back on, Kellogg pointed to the proposed minerals deal between the U.S. and Ukraine. Asked what the impact of turning off intelligence sharing and military aid will have, Kellogg said, “I think in—the best way I can describe it is sort of like hitting a mule with a two by four across the nose. You got their attention. And it’s very—it is significant, obviously, because of the support that we give, OK, but it’s one way of sort of get your attention to do it. But it’s a pause. It’s not an end.” (CNN, 03.06.25, CFR, 03.06.25, CNN, 03.06.25)
• Ukraine’s military can keep up the fight against Russian forces for at least a few more months despite Trump’s decision to pause U.S. arms supplies, according to allied officials, but key munitions could begin to run short sooner. (Bloomberg, 03.05.25)
• Trump's adviser David Sacks has said that aid to Ukraine should be audited as he repeated claims by the U.S. administration about corruption within the Kyiv government… However, Yuriy Boyechko, founder of the humanitarian organization Hope for Ukraine, which helps the war-torn country told Newsweek that aid for Kyiv was already audited and that claims about corruption are simply parroting Kremlin rhetoric… The U.S. is the biggest donor of aid to Ukraine and President Trump has paused its assistance pending a review. Sacks added he did not doubt there had been "massive amounts of corruption, the only question is how much." Watters suggested that Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) led by Trump ally Elon Musk could investigate, prompting Sacks to reply, "we need an audit." (Newsweek, 03.05.25)
• The U.S., EU and other allies have spent over $287 billion in total on supporting Ukraine since just before Russia launched its full-scale invasion in 2022, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy think tank. The United States is the single largest donor to Ukraine, having provided over $122 billion in financial, humanitarian and military assistance. EU member states, and the European Commission, combined have spent around the same amount -- $121.87 billion -- as the United States between January 2022 and December 2024. (RFE/RL, 03.05.25)

Thursday, March 6, 2025

• Kellogg said at CFR’s Securing Ukraine's Future symposium March 6: “America has funded this war with over $170 billion. This year alone, with the most recent tranche of over $60 billion, is an amount larger than we funded the United States Marine Corps this year ... When a nation is concerned about filling somebody else’s potholes than their own potholes, they fail.” (CFR, 03.07.25)
• French satellite operator Eutelsat Communications SA said talks with the European Union to replace Elon Musk’s Starlink in Ukraine are intensifying as the U.S. pulls back from its commitments there. (Bloomberg, 03.06.25)
• According to the Polish outlet Puls Biznesu, Poland's expenses for Ukraine's Starlink terminals and services, which do not appear to have been affected by the U.S. suspension of military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, amounted to $30 million last year. In 2025, they were expected to rise to $47 million. (WP, 03.06.25, RM, 03.06.25)
• Twenty-six European Union leaders ignored Hungary to back a declaration of support for Ukraine at an emergency meeting, underscoring the difficult road ahead as the bloc tries to mobilize new support for Kyiv. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, the EU’s most Russia-friendly leader and long a thorn in the bloc’s side, refused March 6 to sign on to the summit’s conclusions, which pledged unwavering support for Kyiv and set out conditions for achieving a peace settlement. The summit statement nodded to increased military support for Ukraine and the readiness of states to “contribute to security guarantees based on their respective competences and capabilities” to a post-conflict state. (Bloomberg, 03.06.25, FT, 03.07.25)
• Norway will more than double its aid to Ukraine for 2025. (Bloomberg, 03.06.25)

Friday, March 7, 2055.

• The U.S. is still sharing intelligence with Ukraine that can help its troops defend themselves, but has “scaled back” sharing any intelligence that Ukrainian forces could use for offensive targeting of Russian troops, according to two U.S. defense officials. (CNN, 03.07.25)
• As U.S. and Ukrainian officials engaged in damage control after the Feb. 28 bust-up at the White House, the EU has sought to demonstrate that it is stepping in and up both in terms of aiding Ukraine and financing its own defense capacity. This week, the EU pledged 15 billion euros ($16.3 billion) in additional aid for Ukraine at a March 6 summit. EU leaders also signed off on a move to loosen budget restrictions in what they claim could free up 650 billion euros ($702 billion) for additional military spending within the bloc, according to AP. (RM, 03.07.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• Trump has threatened Russia with additional “large-scale” sanctions and tariffs, as the U.S. president shifts to piling pressure on Moscow in an effort to broker a peace deal in Ukraine.  A senior White House official said "Trump's rage has been intensifying" in recent days due to Russia's behavior and its escalation of strikes on Ukraine at the same time that he's been pushing for a ceasefire. "Based on the fact that Russia is absolutely 'pounding' Ukraine on the battlefield right now, I am strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire and FINAL SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT ON PEACE IS REACHED. To Russia and Ukraine, get to the table right now, before it is too late. Thank you!!!" Trump posted on Truth Social. (Axios, 03.07.25, FT, 03.07.25)
• The U.S. will not hesitate to go “all in” on sanctions on Russian energy if it helps lead to a ceasefire in the Ukraine war, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said March 6. (Bloomberg, 03.06.25)
• The U.S. is working on a plan that would ease sanctions against Russia, Reuters reported March 3, citing a U.S. official and another source. The White House has asked the State Department and the Treasury Department to make a list of sanctions that could be lifted so that U.S. officials could discuss them with Russian representatives as part of talks to improve relations, the agency reported. (Meduza, 03.03.25)
• Kellogg, speaking March 6 at a conference of the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, was less precise about what kind of pressure the Trump administration might bring to bear on Moscow to broker a peace deal. He said that the U.S. might tighten enforcement of sanctions already imposed by the Biden administration earlier this year, but that the Trump administration was still assessing Moscow’s position. “The seizing of frozen Russian sovereign assets to rebuild and rearm Ukraine, maximum pressure sanctions on Russian energy are a few of the tools the president is leveraging to get Russia to a peace deal,” he said. (WSJ, 03.06.25, CFR, 03.07.25)
• The American Chamber of Commerce in Russia (AmCham Russia) is calling for the removal of sanctions on the country’s aviation sector, citing a “humanitarian necessity” to prevent potential plane crashes, AmCham Russia president Robert Agee said in an interview published March 7. “First of all, we ask for sanctions to be lifted in the aviation sector: this concerns both the supply of spare parts and technical support for aircraft,” Agee told the RBC news website. Agee said AmCham Russia is also advocating for the removal of an investment ban on U.S. companies in Russia, lifting sanctions on Russian banks to restore cross-border payments and resuming the supply of luxury goods. (MT/AFP, 03.07.25)
• European officials are discussing the use of 200 billion euros in frozen Russian assets as security guarantees for Ukraine as part of a peace plan. (Meduza, 03.04.25)
• France's Finance Minister said March 4 that his country was opposed to seizing frozen Russian assets to fund military aid for Ukraine, arguing the move would violate international agreements. (MT/AFP, 03.04.25)
• Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya said March 4 that Russia's entry ban on him and eight other Japanese citizens was "unacceptable." (MT/AFP, 03.04.25)
• Russia’s Prosecutor General’s Office has filed a lawsuit against the American company Universal Beverage, owner of the Russian canned food producer Glavprodukt, accusing its founder, Leonid Smirnov, of transferring 1.38 billion rubles abroad between 2022 and 2024. The funds were allegedly sent to JPMorgan Chase accounts under the guise of profit distribution, bypassing Russian restrictions. Glavprodukt was nationalized in October 2024. (RBC via Meduza, 03.06.25)
• Russia’s stock market climbed nearly 3% March 4 following overnight reports that the United States is drafting a sanctions relief plan. As of 2:30 p.m. Moscow time, the Moscow Exchange (MOEX) rose 2.89% to 3,236 points, while the dollar-denominated RTS Index also gained 2.89% to 1,142. (MT/AFP, 03.04.25)
• The U.S. is preparing proposals to lift sanctions on Russia in certain sectors, according to Russian state media. The head of the American Chamber of Commerce in Russia, Robert Agee, reportedly met with Russian businesses weeks ago to discuss creating a "white paper" outlining priority areas for sanctions relief. These include civil aviation, aircraft parts, and maintenance. Russian officials also hope for the return of Russian banks to the SWIFT system and the normalization of payment relations. (Korrespondent, 03.07.25)
• The sanctions have cut Russia’s trade surplus by more than half, from $337bn in 2022, the first year of the war, to just $151bn last year, said Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin. The most painful measures were the sanctions against oil exports, which have forced Russian companies to sell at a discount. (FT, 03.07.25)
• Few Russians think Western nations imposed sanctions against their country because the Kremlin violated international law (5%). Rather, they believe the sanctions were implemented out of hostility toward Russia (50%) or a misunderstanding of the real situation in Ukraine (30%). Despite Western sanctions, nearly eight in 10 Russians (77%) think their country should continue its policies rather than compromise or make concessions to have the sanctions lifted. Russians are most inclined to say that cooperation with countries from East Asia and the Pacific (23%) and Central Asia and the Caucasus (20%) is most important for Russia’s economic development. For their military security, Russians believe Central Asia and the Caucasus (24%) and Europe and North America (22%) are most important. Despite tensions with the West, six in 10 Russians (58%) support expanding ties to Western countries. Once the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has ended, half expect relations with the West will gradually return to what they were before the war (50%). (Chicago Council on Global Affairs, 03.03.25)

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Friday, Feb. 28, 2025

• Three people with knowledge of what took place beforehand said neither Trump nor Vance had been looking to blow up a deal for Ukraine’s mineral rights, which Zelenskyy had been expected to sign in Washington. Instead, they said, Zelenskyy seemingly triggered the two American leaders by not sufficiently thanking the United States for trying to end the war (which Trump wanted to hear) and by pressing for commitments to protect Ukraine from Russian aggression going forward (which Trump did not want to hear). (NYT, 03.01.25)
• To Trump's team, it was three strikes — and now officially out of favor — for Zelenskyy. In their eyes, Zelenskyy already had two strikes against him when he sat down with Trump and Vance. Strike 1, as first reported by Axios, came Feb. 15, when Zelenskyy publicly trashed a proposed mineral rights deal with Ukraine that he privately had discussed the day before in Munich with Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Strike 2 came just before the Feb. 28 meeting, when Zelenskyy arrived at the White House without as suit or jacket, as requested. It was perceived by White House staffers as disrespectful. Strike 3: Zelenskyy disagreed publicly with Vance, who accused Zelenskyy of trying to "litigate" his case before the media. (Axios, 03.01.25)
• On Feb. 28, Trump said on his Truth Social platform that the Ukrainian president “is not ready for Peace if America is involved, because he feels our involvement gives him a big advantage in negotiations.” “I want PEACE. He disrespected the United States of America in its cherished Oval Office. He can come back when he is ready for Peace,” Trump said on Truth Social of Zelenskyy. (The Hill, 03.02.25)

Saturday, March 1, 2025

• Lord Peter Mandelson, the British ambassador to the U.S., said there needed to be a “very radical reset” between Washington and Kyiv after Feb. 28’s angry dispute in the White House. “The reset has to consist of the United States and Ukraine getting back on the same page and President Zelenskyy giving his unequivocal backing to the initiative that President Trump is taking to end the war and to bring a just and lasting peace to Ukraine,” Mandelson told ABC’s This Week. (FT, 03.02.25)
• Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Zelenskyy have called for Ukraine, Europe and the U.S. to work together for a “just and lasting” peace in Ukraine after a meeting on the sidelines of the London summit. (FT, 03.02.25)
• Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has demanded the EU begin “direct discussions with Russia on a ceasefire” in the war against Ukraine. (FT, 03.01.25)

Sunday, March 2, 2025

• Zelenskyy has rejected calls for Ukraine to agree to an immediate ceasefire in its war with Russia, saying it would be “failure for everyone” if a cessation of hostilities were not accompanied by detailed security guarantees. The defiant Ukrainian president said he saw no need to make amends for an explosive row with Trump at the White House Feb. 28 or come up with a plan to salvage his relationship with the U.S. president, although he restated his gratitude to the American people. (FT, 03.03.25)
  • Trump responded angrily to comments from Zelenskyy March 2 that a deal to end the war was “very, very far away.” “It should not be that hard a deal to make,” Trump said. “It could be made very fast. Now maybe somebody doesn’t want to make a deal, and if somebody doesn’t want to make a deal, I think that person won’t be around very long.” (FT, 03.04.25)
• U.S. national security adviser Mike Waltz said Russia would have to make concessions on Ukraine’s security in exchange for compromises on territory in any deal to end its war with Ukraine. “This war needs to end, and that’s going to take concessions on territory. That’s going to take Russian concessions on security guarantees,” Waltz said on CNN’s State of the Union, in some of the most specific public remarks on how the U.S. envisages an eventual settlement. “We can’t get any specifics from the Ukrainians, but this will clearly be some type of territorial concession for security guarantees going forward, that has been discussed in previous rounds,” he said. (FT, 03.02.25)
• Waltz criticized Zelenskyy, suggesting he is not genuinely seeking an end to the war with Russia. "It’s not clear that Zelenskyy truly wants to stop the fighting," Waltz said following a tense meeting between the Ukrainian leader and Trump in Washington Feb. 28. "He came in, even though he was warned not to, determined to litigate all of that … This was the wrong approach, wrong time in history and definitely the wrong president to try to do this." (Kyiv Indepepdent, 03.02.25)
  • In his CNN appearance, Waltz said that there is a “need” for “a leader that can deal with us, eventually deal with the Russians and end this war, and if it becomes apparent that President Zelenskyy’s either personal motivations or political motivations are divergent from ending the fighting in his country, then I think we have a real issue on our hands.” (The Hill, 03.02.25)
• French President Emmanuel Macron has unveiled details of a peace plan for resolving the war in Ukraine. In an interview with Le Figaro published March 2, Macron outlined the plan, which proposes a one-month partial ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine that would exclude ground combat operations. “In the event of a ceasefire, it would be very difficult to monitor whether hostilities along the front line are actually being observed,” Macron explained. He said the partial ceasefire would apply to air and naval attacks, including strikes on energy infrastructure. The second part of the plan envisions European countries sending a peacekeeping contingent to Ukraine, but only at a later stage. “There will be no European troops on Ukrainian soil in the coming weeks. The question is how we use this time to try to achieve a ceasefire and negotiations, which will take several weeks, and then, once peace is signed, deployment [of troops],” Macron said. (Meduza, 03.03.25)
  • The U.K. has distanced itself from Macron’s proposal. A Western official briefed on the discussions said it was clear no other leader was enthusiastic about Macron’s idea, including Zelenskyy. “It’s clear Macron pumped things up on this and went overboard,” they said. (FT, 03.03.25)
• Finland’s President Alexander Stubb said neighboring Russia won’t stop with Ukraine if it’s not countered with strength in any negotiations over a ceasefire or peace. “The only thing that Vladimir Putin understands is power,” Stubb said. (Bloomberg, 03.02.25)

Monday, March 3, 2025

• Zelenskyy said he’s willing to meet again with Trump if the U.S. president invites him, but signaled that another White House encounter would have to be “serious” for him to make the trip. (Bloomberg, 03.03.25)
• Trump’s proposed critical minerals deal with Ukraine isn’t enough of a security guarantee in any peace plan to ensure Russia doesn’t strike again, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on March 3, in a clear sign that European leaders intend to push the U.S. president to offer a stronger defensive backstop. (Bloomberg, 03.03.25)
• Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, said in an interview with state media published March 2 that Moscow would oppose any European peacekeeping deployment to Ukraine because “the initial reasons [for the invasion] will not have gone away. “We see no room for compromise,” Lavrov said. The deployment of European troops in Ukraine he said would mean the “undisguised involvement of NATO countries in a war against the Russian Federation. It’s impossible to allow this,” he said. Lavrov praised Trump’s top officials for being “sensible” while saying Zelenskyy was a “pure Nazi” and “traitor to the Jewish people.” (FT, 03.03.25, WSJ, 03.07.25)
• Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesperson, said March 3 that Zelenskyy had shown he “doesn’t want peace [but] wants the war to continue,” according to Interfax. Peskov accused Zelenskyy of having “no diplomatic abilities whatsoever” and “refusing to accept the realities on the ground,” where Russia has gained the upper hand against Ukraine’s outmanned, outgunned army. “Only a blind man could fail to see that,” he said. (FT, 03.03.25)
• Australia is open to requests to take part in peacekeeping operations in Ukraine, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said, reaffirming his support for Kyiv as it faces growing criticism from the Trump administration. (Bloomberg, 03.03.25)

Tuesday, March 4, 2025

• Trump told Congress March 4: “I’m also working tirelessly to end the savage conflict in Ukraine. Millions of Ukrainians and Russians have been needlessly killed or wounded in this horrific and brutal conflict with no end in sight. The United States has sent hundreds of billions of dollars to support Ukraine’s defense with no security, with no anything ... We’ve spent perhaps $350 billion. ... Do you want to keep it going for another five years? Yeah?” (NYT, 03.04.25)
• Trump told Congress March 4: “Earlier today I received an important letter from President Zelenskyy of Ukraine. The letter reads: ‘Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer.’ “Nobody wants peace more than the Ukrainians,’ he said. ‘My team and I stand ready to work under President Trump strong leadership to get a peace that lasts. … We do really value how much America has done to help Ukraine, maintain its sovereignty and independence. … Regarding the agreement on minerals and security, Ukraine is ready to sign it at any time.’ I appreciate that he sent this letter.” (NYT, 03.04.25)
  • Zelenskyy has said that the tense Oval Office meeting with Trump last week was "regrettable," and that he is willing to work with Trump's "strong leadership" to achieve long-term peace. "The meeting did not go the way it was supposed to," Zelenskyy said. "It's unfortunate that it happened this way. It's time to make things right. We want future cooperation and communication to be constructive." Saying that "none of us want an endless war," he added that "Ukraine is ready to return to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring long-term peace closer ... My team and I are ready to work under President Trump's strong leadership to achieve long-term peace." (RFE/RL, 03.04.25)
• Zelenskyy has put forward a large-scale prisoner exchange as well as a “sky truce” as potential first steps to a peace deal with Russia. In a social media post March 4, Zelenskyy said: “We are ready to work fast to end the war, and the first stages could be the release of prisoners and [a] truce in the sky — ban on missiles, long-ranged drones, bombs on energy and other civilian infrastructure — and truce in the sea immediately, if Russia will do the same.” (FT, 03.04.25)

Wednesday, March 5, 2025

• The Kremlin said March 5 that it welcomes the prospect of U.S.-mediated peace talks with Ukraine but claimed that legal obstacles introduced by Kyiv still prevent negotiations from taking place. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the possibility of talks a “positive” development but noted unresolved “nuances.” “The question is who to negotiate with?” Peskov told reporters, pointing to a September 2022 decree in which Zelenskyy formally declared negotiations with Putin “impossible.” “The general approach is positive, but the nuances have not yet changed,” he said. (MT/AFP, 03.05.25)
• A new Economist-YouGov poll shows Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of the war 45% to 40%.  In addition, just 21% strongly approve of his handling of the war, compared with 36% who strongly disapprove. Just 43% of Republicans strongly approve. An Economist poll shows four times as many Americans saying Trump sympathizes more with Russia (43%) than say he sympathizes more with Ukraine (10%). That gap has been steadily widening. In contrast to Trump, Americans say they personally sympathize more with Ukraine than Russia by a 56 to 3 margin. The percentage of Americans who support Ukraine using U.S. weapons to strike inside Russia has increased from 52% in January to 57%. (WP, 03.05.25.)
• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has offered to host peace talks between Russia and Ukraine that could involve U.S. officials. “Tell Trump that I expect him here with Putin and Zelenskyy,” Lukashenko said.” (MT/AFP, 03.05.25)

Thursday, March 6, 2025

• Russia said March 6 it would not accept a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine, rejecting proposals of a one-month halt in fighting or a stop in aerial and naval attacks — ideas floated by Zelenskyy and Macron. “Firm agreements on a final settlement are needed. Without all that, some kind of respite is absolutely unacceptable,” foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told reporters in a televised briefing. (MT/AFP, 03.06.25)
• Russia “categorically” opposes any deal that allows European troops to act as peacekeepers in Ukraine, Lavrov said. “We see no room for compromise,” Lavrov told reporters March 6. The presence of European forces in Ukraine would mean the “undisguised involvement of NATO countries in a war against the Russian Federation. It’s impossible to allow this,” he said. (Bloomberg, 03.06.25)
• Former Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and now Ambassador of Ukraine to the U.K. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi was quoted March 6 as saying he is skeptical about the idea of introducing Western peacekeeping troops into Ukraine. He is convinced that the best security guarantees can be found in the Ukrainians themselves. At the same time, he expressed the opinion that it would be beneficial for Ukraine to be a member of a European security architecture that has yet to be established, possibly based on the United Kingdom's Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF). (Ukraine’s Telegraf and The Moscow Times and RM, 03.06.25)
• Kellogg said at CFR’s Securing Ukraine's Future symposium March 6: “For the president of the United States to not engage with the leader at war has had immense ramifications for our national security. The continued isolation and lack of engagement with the Russians as the war in Ukraine continued is no longer a viable or a sustainable strategy and is certainly not a responsible approach diplomatically for the United States to continue.” (CFR, 03.07.25)

Friday, March 7, 2025

• Russia is willing to discuss a temporary truce in Ukraine provided there is progress toward a final peace settlement, according to people familiar with the matter in Moscow.  In order to agree to a cessation of hostilities, there would have to be a clear understanding about the framework principles of the final peace accord, two people with knowledge of the matter said. Russia will insist in particular on establishing the parameters of an eventual peacekeeping mission, including agreement on which countries would take part, said another person familiar with the issue. (Bloomberg, 03.07.25)
• The U.S. is pressing Ukraine to agree to a quick ceasefire with Russia as a condition for finalizing a minerals deal, according to sources familiar with the matter. Trump has linked the economic agreement, which has been stalled since his Oval Office dispute with Zelenskyy, to demands for a truce and peace talks with Moscow. Ukrainian officials are set to meet U.S. counterparts in Saudi Arabia next week, though Trump’s position remains unpredictable. Zelenskyy has proposed a partial ceasefire but it’s unclear if this meets U.S. demands. (Bloomberg, 03.06.25)
• European officials have been told that Trump wants to link the proposed U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal to demands for Kyiv to commit to a quick ceasefire with Russia, according to people familiar with the matter. (Bloomberg, 03.06.25)
• In the Oval Office March 7, Trump engaged in friendlier rhetoric toward Moscow. “I’m finding it more difficult, frankly, to deal with Ukraine [than Russia],” the president said. “I find that in terms of getting a final settlement, it may be easier dealing with Russia, which is surprising, because they have all the cards, and they’re bombing the hell out of them right now.” “I think [Putin’s] hitting [Ukraine] harder than he’s been hitting them. And I think probably anybody in that position would be doing that right now. He wants to get it ended,” he said. He also said he thought Putin would be "generous" in peace talks. (FT, 03.07.25, ABC, 03.07.25)
• U.S. and Ukrainian delegations will meet for talks next week, Zelenskyy announced March 6. The meeting, set to take place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, will include U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff. Andriy Yermak, head of Zelenskyy’s office, will lead the Ukrainian delegation. The talks aim to address ongoing issues and advance bilateral cooperation. (Meduza, 03.06.25)
  • Top U.S. officials are prepared to meet with Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia next week to set the stage for potential peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow. “The idea is to get down a framework for a peace agreement and an initial cease-fire,” Witkoff said March 6. He will be traveling with Rubio and Waltz to the Riyadh meeting on March 11. The meeting could signal a healing of relations between Kyiv and Washington, which accused Zelenskyy of being ungrateful for U.S. military aid and not ready for peace talks following a contentious Oval Office meeting last week between Trump, his top aides and the Ukrainian president. (WSJ, 03.07.25)
  • Witkoff, Rubio and Waltz will be part of a U.S. delegation meeting with their Ukrainian counterparts in Saudi Arabia for discussions about a ceasefire to end the country’s war with Russia, planned for next week. (The Hill, 03.06.15, WSJ, 03.06.25) We could not find any reports indicating whether Kellogg will participate in the talks with the Ukrainian side. It has been previously argued that he didn’t participate in the U.S.-Russian talks in Saudi Arabia because he was to focus on the Ukraine track. His absence from the U.S.-Ukrainian talks would raise further questions of what role he plays in his capacity as Trump’s special envoy for the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
  • Witkoff said the meeting with Ukraine would seek to agree a framework for “a peace agreement and an initial ceasefire.” The talks will be focused on the minerals deal that the U.S. has struck with Ukraine as well as a possible ceasefire. (FT, 03.07.25)
  • Upcoming talks between Ukrainian and U.S. delegations in Saudi Arabia will focus on three key aspects: a resources agreement, military aid, and the format of negotiations with Russia, according to Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to the head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office. Podolyak emphasized that there is no link between a ceasefire and the signing of the minerals deal, as these are parallel processes. (Korrespondent, 03.07.25)
  • “The war must be stopped as soon as possible, and Ukraine is ready to work 24/7 together with partners in America and Europe for peace,” Zelenskyy said in a post on Telegram after the Brussels summit. “Next week, on Monday, I am scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia to meet with the Crown Prince [Mohammed bin Salman]. After that, my team will remain in Saudi Arabia to work with American partners. Ukraine is most interested in peace.” (FT, 03.07.25)
• A diplomatic solution to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is unlikely in the next six months as Putin is confident he will eventually prevail, Lithuania’s foreign intelligence service said in an annual report. (Bloomberg, 03.07.25)
• Zelenskyy will travel to South Africa next month to discuss efforts to end Russia’s war on Ukraine. Zelenskyy will meet President Cyril Ramaphosa April 10, presidency spokesman Vincent Magwenya told Bloomberg March 6 in Johannesburg. (Bloomberg, 03.07.25, Ukrainska Pravda, 03.07.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said March 5 that the United States is engaged in a “proxy” war with Russia in Ukraine, marking a rare public acknowledgment by a Western official following a major shift in U.S. policy toward Ukraine. “President [Donald] Trump views this as a protracted, stalemated conflict, and frankly, it’s a proxy war between nuclear powers: the United States, helping Ukraine, and Russia,” Rubio told Fox News. “It needs to come to an end, and no one has any idea or any plan to bring it to an end,” he said, commenting on Trump’s recent decisions to freeze military and intelligence assistance to Ukraine as part of an effort to advance peace talks. Rubio criticized Ukraine’s allies for what he described as a flawed approach to military assistance. “Their plan is to give [Ukraine] as much as they need for as long as it takes. That’s not a strategy,” said Rubio, a former foreign policy hawk who had previously called Russian President Vladimir Putin a “thug” and a “gangster.” (MT/AFP, 03.06.25)
• National security adviser Mike Waltz said on Sunday that the U.S. does “not see Ukraine being a member of NATO.”“One thing is clear, we do not see Ukraine being a member of NATO, because that would automatically drag U.S. troops in,” Waltz told CNN’s Dana Bash of “State of the Union.” “But Dana… look, we need to get all sides to the table, and we’re very frustrated that we did not see that from the Ukrainians after we had negotiated a minerals deal that would bind us together, grow their economy and change the nature of our aid,” he added. (The Hill, 03.02.25)
• Trump is considering a major shift in U.S. NATO policy, potentially tying America’s defense commitments to member countries’ defense spending, according to senior U.S. officials. Under the proposed change, the U.S. might not defend NATO allies that fail to meet the alliance’s defense spending target of 2% of GDP. This would mark a significant departure from NATO’s Article 5 principle, which treats an attack on one member as an attack on all. (NBC News, 03.07.25)
• Kellogg said at CFR’s Securing Ukraine's Future symposium on March 6: “While the kinetic action and direct military engagement of this war is bound to Russian and Ukrainian territory, this war is ultimately being waged by a competing alliance structure who are all proxies to this war. Russia’s war effort has led to a deepening of alliances with the Chinese, the Iranians, and North Koreans, where the Europeans are supporting Ukraine by proxy, in a simple fear that if Russia is not stopped in Ukraine the war will spill over to the rest of Europe.” (CFR, 03.07.25)
• On March 4, the European Union unveiled plans that the bloc hopes could increase military spending by 800 billion euros by decade's end. (WSJ, 03.04.25)
• On March 6 European leaders backed plans to spend more on defense and continue to stand by Ukraine in a world upended by Donald Trump's reversal of U.S. policies. EU leaders hailed the European Commission's proposals this week to give them fiscal flexibility on defense spending, and to jointly borrow up to 150 billion euros ($160 billion) to lend to EU governments to spend on their militaries. (Reuters, 03.06.25)
  • The Kremlin on March 7 criticized what it called the European Union's "confrontational rhetoric" after the bloc's leaders agreed to a huge increase in defense spending amid a drive to shore up support for Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 03.07.25)
• Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk said he wants the size of the military to reach half a million soldiers. (Bloomberg, 03.07.25)
• Former Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and now Ambassador of Ukraine to the U.K. Valeriy Zaluzhny was quoted on March 6 as making some remarkable observations, deviating from Zelenskyy’s ‘party line’ on such issues as the need for NATO membership. Speaking at an event with students of Ukrainian Catholic University’ public policy school in Lviv, Zaluzhny—who can be a serious contender for presidency⁶—also acknowledged lack of combat personnel and impossibility of defeating Russia, according to Ukraine’s Telegraf and The Moscow Times. In Zaluzhny’s opinion Ukraine's membership in NATO will not provide it with the necessary political protection which the country needs. "NATO is outdated both morally and physically. And, most likely, it will not give us any political protection.” In this he differs from Zelenskyy who keeps saying Ukraine needs to be in NATO, according to Ukraine’s Telegraf and The Moscow Times. (RM, 03.07.25)
  • In separate remarks made at Chatham House, Zaluzhny was quoted on March 6 by Politico as saying the following: "We see that it is not just the axis of evil and Russia trying to revise the world order, but the U.S. is finally destroying this order." The ambassador suggested Moscow's next target "could be Europe," and said a recent pause in intelligence-sharing was "a huge challenge for the entire world." (RM, 03.06.25)
• A Russian Su-35 fighter jet flew dangerously close to a French Reaper drone conducting a surveillance mission over the eastern Mediterranean on Sunday, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu has reported. (Meduza, 03.05.25)
• Foreign adversaries including Russia and China have recently directed their intelligence services to ramp up recruiting of U.S. federal employees working in national security, targeting those who have been fired or feel they could be soon, according to four people familiar with recent U.S. intelligence on the issue and a document reviewed by CNN. (CNN, 03.01.25)
• Three Bulgarian nationals have been found guilty of spying for Russia at the Old Bailey in London, in a trial that police described as one of the most significant espionage cases to be brought in Britain in decades. Katrin Ivanova, 33, Vanya Gaberova, 30, and Tihomir Ivanchev, 39, were each convicted of one count of conspiracy to spy on March 7. Ivanova was also found guilty on a charge of possessing false identity documents with improper intent after more than 30 hours of deliberation by the jury. (FT, 03.07.25)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• China and Russia are developing relations that are not aimed against third countries and rule out confrontation, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said. "Russia and China have found a model of co-existence, which is based on the principles of non-alignment and lack of confrontation, and is not directed against third countries," he said, answering to a question from TASS at a news conference. (TASS, 03.06.25)
• Russia and China are progressing toward scrapping visas, Zhang Wei, Charge d’Affaires ad interim of the Chinese embassy in Moscow, told TASS. (TASS, 03.07.25)
• See section “Nuclear arms” below.

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• Trump told reporters at the White House on March 6 that the United States would like to discuss denuclearization with Russia and China. Trump pointed out that he had discussed the issue with Moscow and Beijing during his first term in office and would like to resume those consultations. "It would be great if everybody would get rid of their nuclear weapons," the U.S. president stated. According to Trump, "Russia and us have by far the most. China will have an equal amount within four or five years, and it would be great if we could all denuclearize, because the power of nuclear weapons is crazy. It's crazy." (TASS, 03.07.25)
• The Kremlin told reporters on March 7 that it was open to dialogue and broad discussions with the United States about their nuclear arsenals after U.S. President Donald Trump issued a broad call for other nuclear powers to draw down their stockpiles. "Dialogue between Russia and the U.S. on arms control is necessary, especially concerning strategic stability," Peskov said. (RFE/RL, 03.07.25)
• French President Emmanuel Macron has proposed discussions with European allies on how France’s nuclear weapons could protect the continent, responding to concerns about U.S. reliability and Russia’s growing threat. Macron’s announcement follows a call from Germany’s likely next chancellor, Friedrich Merz, for France and the U.K. to consider “nuclear sharing.” The proposal comes as EU leaders prepare for an emergency summit on defense strategy and military spending amid U.S. pressure on Ukraine to negotiate peace with Russia. (FT, 03.06.25)
  • Latvian Prime Minister Evika Siliņa expressed openness to Macron’s proposal. While she did not commit to hosting French nuclear weapons in Latvia, Siliņa noted the idea as an opportunity for dialogue. Macron’s proposal will be a key topic at an EU defense summit in Brussels. (FT, 03.06.25)
  •  Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda welcomed Macron’s proposal as a “very serious” deterrent to Russia. (FT, 03.06.25)
  • Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called Macron’s remarks in a televised address March 5 evening “very, very confrontational.” “It seems that France indeed wants the war [in Ukraine] to continue,” Peskov told the state-run news agency TASS. “This is nuclear rhetoric and [France’s] claim toward nuclear leadership in Europe.” Macron “did not mention Russia’s legitimate concerns and fears and, in this regard, the need for Russia to take retaliatory measures,” Peskov added. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, responding to Macron’s warnings that Moscow poses a threat to Europe, described the speech as a “threat against Russia.” (MT/AFP, 03.06.25)
• Russia will expand dialogue on strategic stability issues with China, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. "You are aware that we maintain a specifically good relationship with China that we have been deepening of late, and we hold dialogue on strategic stability issues across the board. And we will expand this dialogue," Peskov said. Perhaps, most importantly, he said in reference to possibility of a RF-PRC-U.S. trialogue on strategic stability “So far, there have been no specific negotiations and there is no understanding yet of when such contacts could begin and where," he said. (TASS, 03.07.25)
• President Trump's embrace of Russia is causing Europeans to rethink their security and giving currency to an idea the U.S. has long sought to avoid: a nuclear-armed Germany. Friedrich Merz, who is poised to become Germany's next chancellor, said Berlin should start talks about expanding the French and British nuclear deterrents to cover Europe, according to an interview the conservative politician did with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung weekly. Asked if Germany should pursue its own arsenal, Merz didn't rule it out, saying "there is no need for this today." (WSJ, 03.07.25)
• Donald Tusk said that Poland “must reach for the most modern possibilities, also related to nuclear weapons and modern unconventional weapons,” in a landmark speech to parliament that made stark the country’s need to increase its defense capabilities to confront a much more threatening global environment. (FT, 03.07.25)
• Director of U.S. National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard claimed that Zelenskyy has been pushing the U.S. toward "a nuclear war with Russia/WW3 for years now." (Kyiv Indepepdent, 03.02.25)

Counterterrorism:

• On March 2, 2025, the United States charged Mohammad Sharifullah, also known as “Jafar,” a member of the terrorist organization the Islamic State of Iraq and ash-Sham-Khorasan Province, according to a press release from the U.S. Department of Justice. He is charged with organizing a series of attacks, including the assault on Crocus City Hall near Moscow in March 2024 and the 2021 Kabul airport attack. Sharifullah admitted to training the militants who carried out the Crocus attack and identified two of the four suspects detained in Russia. He faces life imprisonment. (iStories, 03.07.25)
• Russian authorities said March 5 that security forces killed four suspected militants linked to the Islamic State (IS) group who were planning an attack in the southern republic of Dagestan. Dagestan’s regional leader, Sergei Melikov, said the four were eliminated in an overnight “anti-terrorist operation” in the republic’s capital, Makhachkala. He said the group had planned to attack a police station in the city of Kaspiisk and announced on Telegram that the suspects had been “neutralized.” (MT/AFP, 03.05.25)
• Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said March 3 that its agents killed a man suspected of plotting attacks on the Moscow metro and a Jewish religious site in the Moscow region. “During his arrest, the criminal put up armed resistance to the FSB officers and was neutralized by return fire,” the agency said in a statement. The FSB identified the man as a Russian citizen born in an unspecified Central Asian country and claimed he had planned to travel to Afghanistan to join an “international terrorist organization” after carrying out the attacks. (MT/AFP, 03.03.25)

Conflict in Syria:

• A tanker loaded diesel at a large Russian port and sailed to Syria, a sign of Moscow’s ability to maintain influence in the Mediterranean country. The 580-foot Prosperity loaded about 35,000 tons of the fuel in February at Russia’s Baltic port of Primorsk and is now floating off Syria’s coast. (Bloomberg, 03.06.25)
• Now Russia has a fresh opportunity to rebuild its presence in Syria, while Damascus may have found a partner who can counter the influence of Turkey and Iran, two of the region's main powers. "Despite Russia's atrocities in bombings and the supply of arms to the former regime, the Syrians are saying they want to open to a new page," said a Syrian official briefed on the talks. (WSJ, 03.06.25)

Cyber security/AI: 

• The Pentagon has denied media reports that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had ordered a halt in offensive cyber operations against Russia, according to a senior defense official. Hegseth has neither canceled nor delayed any cyber operations directed against malicious Russian targets and there has been no stand-down order whatsoever from that priority, said the official who was granted anonymity to discuss internal decisions. The denial came after The Record, a cybersecurity publication, reported that Hegseth had ordered the U.S. Cyber Command to stand down from all planning against Russia, including offensive digital actions. (Bloomberg, 03.04.25)
• The U.S. Department of Justice announced March 7 criminal charges against the administrators of the Russian cryptocurrency exchange Garantex for allegedly facilitating money laundering by criminal and terrorist organizations, as well as violating U.S. sanctions. (Techno Crunch, 03.07.25)
• A Russian disinformation network called Pravda (“Truth”) has influenced leading AI chatbots’ output by publishing numerous articles that made their way into the bots’ training data, a new report from the analysis group NewsGuard reveals. According to researchers, this wasn’t just a side effect of Moscow flooding the web with false narratives—it was the initiative’s main goal. (Meduza, 03.07.25)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Russia’s oil-tax revenue in February slumped by almost a quarter year-on-year, suggesting producers have reined in output at heavily taxed projects to meet the country’s OPEC+ quota. Flows into the federal budget dropped about 23% to 610 billion rubles ($6.8 billion), according to Bloomberg calculations based on Finance Ministry data published March 5.. (Bloomberg, 03.05.25)
• Russian data show the country’s crude oil production in February was little changed from the month before, holding just below its OPEC+ quota, according to people familiar with the figures. Output averaged 8.964 million barrels a day last month, the people said, asking not to be identified because the information isn’t public. That’s 14,000 barrels a day below Russia’s target under the OPEC+ supply agreement. (Bloomberg, 03.06.25)
• The European Union delayed the release of a plan to phase out Russian fossil fuels as it weighs the impact of the U.S. administration’s pivot on Ukraine, struggles to lower energy prices and strives to maintain unity among member states. The European Commission dropped the publication of a roadmap—which was meant to outline the EU’s path for replacing Russian energy—from its schedule on March 5, after previously planning to release it on March 26. (Bloomberg, 03.05.25)
• The premium shipowners are charging to haul Russia’s flagship oil is soaring as farewell sanctions imposed by the outgoing Biden administration continue to bite Moscow’s petroleum trade. The price of carrying about 1 million barrels of Urals crude from Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk to the west coast of India is the most expensive since April, according to Argus Media. Such a cargo now costs $7.9 million to transport, up from about $5.6 million at the end of last year. That’s well over double the rate for a tanker not hauling Russian barrels on the same route, the price-reporting agency estimates. (Bloomberg, 03.04.25)
• Finland has ended the seizure of a shadow fleet tanker that pulled up four underwater data cables and a power link on Dec. 25 as investigations proceed. The Eagle S will be escorted by the Border Guard from Finnish territorial waters, the police said in an emailed statement on Sunday. Eight crew members are still suspected of offenses, and three of them are prevented from leaving the country, the police said. (Bloomberg, 03.02.25)
• European natural gas prices jumped on signs that U.S. President Donald Trump is poised to tighten the screws on Russia with possible large-scale sanctions in an effort to force a quick ceasefire in Ukraine. Benchmark futures gained as much as 7.1% after slumping 4.8% earlier March 7. (Bloomberg, 03.07.25)
• European Union leaders called for stepping up efforts to resolve the Ukraine gas transit issue, a win for Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who had threatened to veto the conclusions of the bloc’s emergency summit if the matter wasn’t addressed. (Bloomberg, 03.07.25)
• Russian and U.S. negotiators held secret talks on resuming gas flows to Germany via the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, the German tabloid Bild reported Sunday, citing anonymous sources familiar with the matter. The Swiss-based operator of Nord Stream 2 and other Russia-based entities linked to the $11 billion pipeline are currently under U.S. sanctions. The reported U.S.-Russia discussions on restarting the pipeline are seen as part of President Donald Trump’s efforts to rebuild ties with Russia. According to Bild, Trump’s special envoy Richard Grenell made multiple unofficial visits to the headquarters of Nord Stream 2 AG—the pipeline’s operator, which is fully owned by Russia’s sanctioned energy giant Gazprom—in the Swiss city of Steinhausen for negotiations. (MT/AFP, 03.03.25, FT, 03.02.25)
• Ukraine is set to ramp up natural gas imports next season, with its own production capacity hit by Russia’s drones and missiles, potentially adding more pressure to an already tight European market. The government estimates it will need about 3.5 billion cubic meters of imports to meet domestic demand next heating season, an energy official familiar with the calculations said. (Bloomberg, 03.04.25)
• Ukraine's largest private energy company DTEK is in active discussions with U.S. suppliers to bring more natural gas to Europe as part of a broader expansion strategy." (WSJ, 03.05.25)
• The European Union is considering helping finance central-east nations to store natural gas in Ukraine next winter. (Bloomberg, 03.03.25)
• U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed sweeping tariffs on major trading partners Canada, Mexico and China, rattling global markets. In the short term, Russia may be able to capitalize on the escalating trade war by replacing U.S. energy supplies to China. But the Kremlin is unlikely to significantly benefit from the tariffs in the longer term—especially as they may lead to a global economic slowdown that cuts into demand for Russian oil and gas. (MT/AFP, 03.04.25)
• Donald Trump claimed in an address to the Congress on March 3 that “Europe has sadly spent more money buying Russian oil and gas than they’ve spent on defending Ukraine, by far.” (NYT, 03.04.25)⁷

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• Kremlin’s key economic envoy to the talks, Kirill Dmitriev, has called for the Trump administration and Russia to start “building a better future for humanity,” and to “focus on investment, economic growth, AI breakthroughs,” and long-term joint scientific projects like “Mars exploration,” even posting a highly produced computer graphic, on Elon Musk’s X social media platform, showing an imagined joint U.S.-Russia-Saudi mission to Mars, on board what appears to be a Space X rocket. (CNN, 03.03.25)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• The Kremlin said in remarks aired Sunday that the United States' sudden shift in foreign policy "largely aligns" with its own position. "The new administration is rapidly changing all foreign policy configurations. This largely aligns with our vision," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told a reporter from state television. "There is a long way to go because a lot of damage has been done to the whole complex of bilateral relations. But if the political will of the two leaders, President Putin and President Trump, is maintained, this path can be quite quick and successful," Peskov added. (MT/AFP, 03.02.25)
• Following the stunning episode involving Zelenskyy, Trump and Vance in the White House last week, the Kremlin now worries that its chances at securing its favored outcome in a deal with Washington may be at risk, two Russian government officials, two diplomats and a source close to the Kremlin told The Moscow Times. “We [Russia] are valuable to Trump primarily in the context of solving a problem: the war in Ukraine. If that issue falls off the agenda, then the entire agenda is thrown into question—what else is there to talk about?” a Russian diplomat said, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter. (MT, 03.04.25)
• Privately, there’s talk of the Trump-Putin summit, always on the cards, now being fast-tracked. (CNN, 03.03.25)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin has appointed Alexander Darchiev as Russia’s new ambassador to the United States. Darchiev, previously the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s North American Department, will also serve as Russia’s permanent observer at the Organization of American States in Washington. The U.S. approved his appointment during bilateral talks in Istanbul on Feb. 27. (Meduza, 03.06.25)
• A CBS/YouGov poll last month found that 34% of Americans think Vladimir Putin's Russia is an "ally" or "friendly" to the U.S. (WSJ, 03.07.25)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia’s real wages in 2024 increased the most in 16 years as the country grapples with a lack of workers and even seeks to import them from so-called friendly countries, including Myanmar. Annual growth in real wages reached 9.1% last year, the highest since 2008, according to Federal Statistics Service data published late March 5. This contrasts with the 2.7% globally estimated by the International Labor Organization. (Bloomberg, 03.05.25)
• Russia’s manufacturing sector PMI slumped back to 50.2 in February from 53.1 in January as Russia’s economy shows the first concrete signs of cooling, according to the latest report by S&P Global released on March 3. (MT/AFP, 03.03.25)
• Monthly worker pay in Russia grew by the fastest rate in 16 years in December 2024, the business newspaper Vedomosti reported March 3, citing official data. The average monthly salary in December increased by 21.9% year-on-year, the highest growth since November 2008, when wages rose by 22%. The second-highest increase of 21.6% was recorded in March 2024. (MT/AFP, 03.03.25)
• The Kremlin plans to place 100 veterans of Russia’s war in Ukraine into the State Duma in 2026, exiled journalist Farida Rustamova reported March 6, citing anonymous lawmakers and a Kremlin source familiar with the matter. (MT/AFP, 03.06.25)
• Russia’s State Duma passed a bill March 5 overhauling the country’s constitutionally mandated two-tier system of local self-government, further consolidating the Kremlin’s control six years after President Vladimir Putin proposed the reforms. The bill, which has been amended over 1,000 times since its introduction in 2021, allows regional authorities to decide whether to abolish lower-tier urban and rural municipal governments, shifting toward a single-tier system. (MT/AFP, 03.05.25)
• Adoptions of Russian children by foreigners came to a complete halt in 2024, while domestic adoptions continued to decline, the investigative outlet IStories reported March 7, citing Education Ministry data. (MT/AFP, 03.07.25)

Defense and aerospace:

• The Russian Ministry of Defense recorded 50,554 cases of desertion and unauthorized abandonment of units in 2024, according to an internal presentation analyzed by Ukrainian intelligence group InformNapalm. The Southern Military District, which includes forces from the self-proclaimed Luhansk and Donetsk republics, accounted for nearly 12,000 cases. Desertion rates in the Russian army are comparable to those of the U.S. military during the Vietnam War, though researchers note this does not indicate a collapse of the army. In contrast, Ukraine has opened 95,000 criminal cases for desertion since the war began, representing about 10% of its military. (iStories, 03.05.25)
• Russia’s Air and Space Forces successfully launched a Soyuz-2.1b rocket from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome on March 3, 2025, deploying the Glonass-K2 navigation satellite, designated Cosmos-2584, into orbit. This marks the second launch of the advanced Glonass-K2 series, following the first in August 2023. The satellite, registered as 2025-042A by NORAD, aims to enhance Russia’s global navigation capabilities. (Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces, 03.03.25)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• In 2024, every second district police officer quit the Ministry of Internal Affairs, said Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev at an extended meeting of the department's board with Putin. (Istories, 03.05.25)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Romanian prosecutors said March 6 that they arrested and charged six people with treason, accusing them of colluding with Russia to "undermine" the country. The case has already led to the expulsion of two Russian diplomats—Russia's military attaché and his deputy—who were declared persona non gratae on March 5. Romania's Intelligence Service said the diplomats "carried out intelligence-gathering activities in areas of strategic interest and supported the anti-constitutional actions" of a group of Romanian citizens. Prosecutors said the six detainees had "repeatedly entered into contact with agents of a foreign power" both in Romania and Russia. In 2023, the group allegedly created a "military-type structure" with the aim of "undermining the political and defense capacity of the country," a NATO member, according to the office for organized crime (DIICOT). (MT/AFP, 03.06.25)
  • Romania on March 5 ordered two Russian diplomats expelled, after slamming Russian "interference" and criticism of an indictment of far-right presidential candidate Calin Georgescu. (MT/AFP, 03.05.25)
• Russian exiles and opposition activists gathered in Berlin on Saturday to protest against Russia’s war in Ukraine, marking another demonstration following the third anniversary of the full-scale invasion. The protest—organized by Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of the late opposition leader Alexei Navalny, along with prominent opposition politicians Ilya Yashin and Vladimir Kara-Murza—drew around 500 people (MT/AFP, 03.01.25)
• President Vladimir Putin on March 4 lauded Russia’s growing ties with Myanmar during a Kremlin meeting with the Asian country’s junta chief. Russia is a crucial arms supplier to Myanmar’s military-led government, which has struggled to suppress armed resistance since seizing power in a 2021 coup. “The relations between our countries are steadily developing,” Putin told junta leader Min Aung Hlaing in a televised meeting. (MT/AFP, 03.04.25)

Ukraine:

• President Donald Trump has kept the door open to signing a minerals deal with Ukraine despite his feud last week with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, adding to hope in European capitals that the agreement can be salvaged. “It’s a great deal for us,” Trump told reporters March 3, adding that “I’ll let you know tomorrow,” when he addresses a joint session of Congress. He said Zelenskyy “should be more appreciative” of the billions in U.S. assistance his country has received to fight Russia’s invasion. Trump’s relatively optimistic assessment could revive prospects for the deal, which Zelenskyy had flown to the U.S. to sign but was scrapped after an Oval Office meeting between the leaders—as well as U.S. Vice President JD Vance—descended into testy exchanges. (Bloomberg, 03.03.25)
  • Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine is ready to sign a minerals deal with the U.S. “at any time and in any convenient format.” (FT, 03.04.25)
  • Ukraine is “grateful to the U.S.” and ready to sign a minerals deal, the country’s prime minister Denys Shmyhal told a press conference. (FT, 03.04.25)
• Senior allies of Donald Trump have held secret talks with Ukrainian opposition figures, including former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and members of Petro Poroshenko’s party, about the possibility of holding quick presidential elections in Ukraine. The discussions, aimed at potentially replacing President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, reflect Washington’s alignment with Moscow’s efforts to pressure Kyiv. Critics warn that elections during wartime could be chaotic and benefit Russia, while Zelenskyy’s approval ratings have risen following a contentious Oval Office meeting with Trump. (Politico, 03.06.25)
  • Ukrainian opposition leaders Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko have dismissed the possibility of elections in the country during Russia's full-scale invasion after media reports suggested U.S. officials had approached them about the idea. (RFE/RL, 03.06.25)
• The Feb. 28 bust-up in the White House has raised questions about whether Europe could ever compensate. Among Ukraine’s stunned elite there is a growing debate about whether Mr. Zelenskyy is still the right person to lead the country. According to one former diplomat, “Zelenskyy’s demise is now inevitable… because he is inconveniently stubborn and basically got hated by both Trump and Putin. They both need someone submissive in Ukraine.” Senator Lindsey Graham, once a strong supporter of the Ukrainian fight, stood outside the White House to say Mr. Zelenskyy needed to “resign [or] change.” (Economist, 03.01.25)
  • Commenting on calls for his resignation, Zelenskyy responded: “I can give [Lindsay Graham] citizenship of Ukraine and he will become a citizen of our country. And then his voice will start to gain weight. […] The president of Ukraine will not be chosen in Lindsey Graham’s house but in Ukraine.” (Meduza, 03.03.25)
  • “Our meeting in Washington, at the White House on Friday, did not go the way it was supposed to be,” Mr. Zelenskyy wrote on X. “It is regrettable that it happened this way. It is time to make things right.” (NYT, 03.04.25)
    • The Trump administration believes that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has apologized for his recent behavior. “President Zelenskyy has demonstrated that he’s intent on that good-faith path back,” said Witkoff. “He’s apologized. He’s said that he’s grateful. He said that he wants to work towards peace.” (WSJ, 03.07.25)
    • The Ukrainian authorities “will not apologize” for the contentious exchange between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S. President Donald Trump in the Oval Office last week, senior Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak told Le Point. Podolyak stated that Zelenskyy was “absolutely right” in conveying the need to pressure Russia for any progress in peace talks. He dismissed the incident as an “emotional discussion” rather than a humiliation, adding that it highlighted differing views on negotiating with Moscow. (Meduza, 03.07.25)
  • Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said he is "exchangeable" for Ukrainian membership of NATO, indicating he would be prepared to step down as president if his country was allowed to join the military alliance. He also suggested he was ready to sign a minerals deal with the U.S. that was put on hold after his heated meeting with Donald Trump in the Oval Office on Friday. (Sky News, 03.03.25)
• Ukraine’s bonds slid the most since last year’s restructuring as investors pared expectations for near-term peace prospects after a public falling out in the White House. Ukraine’s dollar bonds were the worst performers across emerging-markets on March 3. (Bloomberg, 03.03.25)
• Ukraine’s central bank tightened monetary policy for a third meeting and said it’s ready to take more action to tame an acceleration in inflation in the war-time economy. Policymakers lifted the key rate by a full percentage point to 15.5%, the National Bank of Ukraine said in a statement March 6. (Bloomberg, 03.06.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Pro-Russian politician Badra Gunba was declared the winner of the runoff presidential election in the breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia, officials said Sunday. (MT/AFP, 03.02.25)
• Russia will build a drone production facility in neighboring Belarus to “ensure security” for its key ally, Belarusian state media reported March 6. (MT/AFP, 03.06.25)
• Georgia’s parliament has approved the first reading of a draft bill on registering foreign agents that’s modeled directly after the U.S. Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA), the outlet Tabula reported on March 4. (Meduza, 03.04.25)
• Kazakhstan’s central bank unexpectedly hiked its key interest rate to help tame accelerating inflation that’s running at almost double the target. The National Bank of Kazakhstan raised the benchmark to 16.5% on March 7. (Bloomberg, 03.07.25)

IV. Quotable and notable

• Keith Kellogg said at CFR’s Securing Ukraine's Future symposium on March 6: “My experience in the reading of history, in studying the Russian at war—in fact, there’s a great book by—Russia at War, by a guy named Alexander Werth, that—when it comes right down to it, the one thing you never want to do with the Russians is get into an attrition war. I mean, this is the same nation that in World War II lost 70,000 troops dead in Stalingrad in six months and continued to fight.” (CFR, 03.07.25) 

Footnotes

1. One survey by the polling agency Leading Legal Initiatives, showed Zaluzhnyi winning a hypothetical first round of a two-stage election with 24% of the vote. Zelenskyy trailed, with 16%; and Tymoshenko, the opposition figure, came in third place with 12%, NYT reported Jan. 23, 2025. However, in a poll conducted by British pollster Survation after the blow-up at the White House Feb. 28, 44% said they would back Zelenskyy for the presidency. His nearest rival, trailing him by more than 20 percentage points, is Zaluzhnyi with 21%, according to Politico.

2. Addressing European leaders, Zelenskyy said Ukraine was losing 40 soldiers a day, with another 100 injured daily, according to diplomats present. (WSJ, 03.07.25)

   RM’s Ukraine war scorecard contains the following estimate of military casualties:

   Russia: More than 700,000 killed or injured, according to a January 2025 estimate. 48,000 missing.

   Ukraine: 400,000 killed or injured, according to a January 2025 estimate. 35,000 missing.

3. For estimates of casualties, see the March 5, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card.  

4. The Russia-Ukraine war score card contains the following estimate of military casualties:

   Russia: More than 700,000 killed or injured, according to a January 2025 estimate. 48,000 missing.

   Ukraine: 400,000 killed or injured, according to a January 2025 estimate. 35,000 missing.

5. The suspension of U.S. intelligence sharing with Ukraine will damage Ukraine's ability to defend itself against ongoing Russian attacks against military and civilian targets. The suspension of all U.S. intelligence sharing with Ukraine would also allow Russian forces to intensify their drone and missile strikes against the Ukrainian rear, affecting millions of Ukrainian civilians and the growth of Ukraine's defense industrial base (DIB). (ISW, 03.06.25)
6. One survey, by the polling agency Leading Legal Initiatives, showed Mr. Zaluzhny winning a hypothetical first round of a two-stage election with 24% of the vote. Mr. Zelenskyy trailed, with 16%; and Ms. Tymoshenko, the opposition figure, came in third place with 12%, NYT reported on January 23, 2025. However, in a poll conducted by British pollster Survation after the blow-up at the White House, 44% said they would back Zelenskyy for the presidency. His nearest rival, trailing him by more than 20 percentage points, is Zaluzhny with 21%, according to Politico.
7. Newsweek’s effort to fact-check this claim found it to be “true.”

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky.