Russia in Review, Feb. 23-March 2, 2018

This Week’s Highlights:

  • In his annual address to parliament, Vladimir Putin citied the fact that the U.S.-Russian Cooperative Threat Reduction programs enabled U.S. personnel to conduct inspections at Russia’s nuclear enterprises in the 1990s as an example of how weak Russia was at that time. In his address, Putin also offered a tour de force of new long-range attacks systems that he claimed Russia’s defense industry is developing. However, few experts on either side believe that the new weapons Putin boasted of would change the balance of power between Russia and the U.S.
  • Russia’s Foreign Ministry has postponed planned talks with the United States on strategic stability after the U.S. canceled consultations on cyber security. The consultations were to take place in Geneva on Feb.27-28. The Russian delegation led by Kremlin aide Andrei Krutskikh had arrived, but was then notified by the U.S side that the U.S. delegation, led by Deputy Coordinator for Cyber Issues at the State Department Michele Markoff, could not attend.
  • Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Ragozin has admitted there were missiles aboard the Russian Navy’s Yekaterinburg nuclear submarine when it caught fire in late 2011. This Project 667BDRM submarine has two nuclear reactors and is designed to carry 16 R-29RM ballistic missiles.
  • The first shipment of U.S. weapons to Ukraine will probably arrive in mid-April. In anticipation of the sale, the U.S. has already started training Ukrainian forces on how to use them.
  • Gazprom ended February with record-high shipments to its main market, Europe, at 99.2 million cubic meters a day.
  • When asked in Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave if there was a historical event that he would have liked to have prevented, Putin said: “Disintegration of the Soviet Union.”
  • Up to 15,000 Russian work permits are issued to North Korean nationals every year.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin citied the fact that the U.S.-Russian Cooperative Threat Reduction programs enabled U.S. personnel to visit Russia’s nuclear enterprises in the 1990s as an example of how weak Russia was at the time. “There was a war underway in [Russia’s North] Caucasus, while American inspectors were sitting at our leading uranium-enrichment enterprises,” he said in his address to the Russian parliament. (Russia Matters, 03.01.18)
  • Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Ragozin has admitted there were missiles aboard the Yekaterinburg nuclear submarine when it was ravaged by fire during repair work at a shipyard near Murmansk in late 2011, Bellona reported on Feb. 27, citing Russia’s Kommersant daily. “There were both torpedoes and ballistic missiles on the submarine when the submarine caught fire on Dec. 29, 2011," Ragozin told Kommersant. This Project 667BDRM submarine has two nuclear reactors and is designed to carry 16 R-29RM ballistic missiles, according to the Rusnavy portal. (Russia Matters, 02.27.18)
  • Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant (INPP) in Lithuania has announced the removal of the last used fuel assembly from the reactor of unit two. Some of the used fuel was removed from the reactor after its closure in 2009, but the remainder was left pending the launch of an Interim Spent Fuel Storage Facility (ISFSF). (World Nuclear News, 02.27.18)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

  • Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Morgulov called on Feb. 24 for direct talks between the United States and Russia on North Korea. (Reuters, 02.24.18)
  • An investigation has been launched in Bashkortostan into criminally negligent manslaughter after five North Korean workers were found dead at a construction site in southern Russia. Up to 15,000 Russian work permits are issued to North Korean nationals every year. (The Moscow Times, 03.01.18)

Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:

  • Russia has vetoed a Western-sponsored U.N. resolution aimed at pressuring Iran over alleged violations of the U.N. arms embargo on Yemeni rebels. The vote in the Security Council was 11 in favor of the embargo, Russia and Bolivia opposed and China and Kazakhstan abstaining. (RFE/RL, 02.27.18 LA Times, 02.26.18)
  • European and U.S. officials are planning to meet in Berlin in March for talks on Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. One European diplomat said the meeting would take place March 15.(Reuters, 02.28.18)

Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a speech to Russian lawmakers on March 1 that Moscow would regard a nuclear attack on its allies as a nuclear attack on Russia and would immediately respond. This statement is consistent with the language of Russia’s current military doctrine, which says the Russian Federation “reserves the right” to use nuclear arms if either Russia or its allies are subjected to aggression with use of nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction. Putin also singled out a new U.S. nuclear-strategy document as threatening to lower the threshold for using the weapons and delivered a stern warning to the U.S. that Russia has a series of new high-technology nuclear weapons that he said can overcome any defenses. “No one has managed to restrain Russia,” Putin said in the address illustrated with video clips of the new arms that he said were developed since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Putin devoted nearly thirty minutes of the two-hour speech to discussing and showing off Russia’s newly improved military capabilities. (Bloomberg, 03.01.18, The Moscow Times, 03.01.18, Bloomberg, 03.01.18, Kremlin.ru, 03.01.18)
  • Among the systems developed since the collapse of the Soviet Union were:
    • The Sarmat multiple-warhead ICBM which will be equipped with a broad range of powerful nuclear warheads, including hypersonic warheads, according to Putin. He claimed that Sarmat has practically no range restrictions, can attack targets via both the North and South poles and that the liquid-fuel missile is being mass-produced (Russia Matters, 03.01.18)
    • A miniature nuclear propulsion unit that can be installed on Russia’s air-to-surface Kh-101 missiles that can carry nuclear warheads. He claimed that installation of that unit turns Kh-101s “into a low-flying stealth missile carrying a nuclear warhead, with almost an unlimited range, unpredictable trajectory and ability to bypass interception boundaries.” Putin said the nuclear-powered missile, which has not been previously reported in open sources, was tested in 2017 and that it can bypass existing missile defenses, rendering them “useless.” (Russia Matters, 03.01.18)
    • A high-speed underwater drone that was tested in 2017 with an "intercontinental" range and that is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead that could target both aircraft carriers and coastal facilities, Putin claimed. He said its "very big" operational depth and a speed that is at least 10 times higher than any other vessel would make it immune to enemy intercept. A computer video showed the drone being launched by a submarine, cruising over the seabed, hitting an aircraft carrier and also exploding near the shore. Russia has been previously reported to have been working on a Status-6 underwater nuclear attack drone. (AP, 01.03.18, Bloomberg, 03.01.18, Russia Matters, 03.01.18)
    • The Avangard strategic missile system with fundamentally new combat equipment—a gliding wing unit, which has also been successfully tested, Putin said. This system, the development of which has been earlier reported in the press, is capable of intercontinental flight at supersonic speeds in excess of Mach 20, according to Putin. “It flies to its target like a meteorite, like a ball of fire,” he said. (Russia Matters, 03.01.18)
    • A high-precision hypersonic aircraft missile system that can fly at speeds 10 times faster than the speed of sound and that can maneuver at all phases of its flight trajectory, Putin said. The Kinzhal (Dagger) system is carried by the Soviet-designed MiG-31 interceptor and has a range of more than 2,000 kilometers, according to the chief of Russia’s aerospace forces, Sergei Surovikin. (Bloomberg, 03.01.18, Financial Times, 03.01.18, Russia Matters, 03.01.18)
    • A new laser weapon was shown on video preparing for operation and Putin said Russian troops have been “armed with laser weapons” since 2017. (Bloomberg, 03.01.18, Russia Matters, 03.01.18)
  • The animations used by Russian President Vladimir Putin to accompany his March 1 militaristic speech, which featured claims of new weapons, go back at least a decade, reports say. Also few experts on either side believe that the new weapons, assuming they actually exist and are ever deployed, would change the balance of power between two nations that already have the ability to destroy each other many times over. “Do any of these work? Do they even exist?” asked Joe Cirincione, president of a global security foundation, on Twitter. “They are all in some stage of development.” (The Moscow Times, 03.02.18, (Financial Times, 03.01.18, The Washington Post, 03.01.18)
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel and U.S. President Donald Trump have expressed concern after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia had deployed or was developing an array of new nuclear-capable weapons. Merkel and Trump said in a telephone call that the weapons would have a negative impact on "international arms control efforts." (RFE/RL, 03.02.18)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin's warnings to NATO allies are "unacceptable" and do not help efforts to calm tensions, the alliance said on March 2. (Reuters, 03.02.18)
  • U.S. President Donald Trump will host the leaders of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in a Baltic Summit on April 3. (RFE/RL, 02.23.18)
  • The U.S government has told EU states that it and other non-EU NATO allies should play a key role in a European defense pact, diplomatic sources said on Feb. 27. The message, sent to defense and foreign ministries, was meant to underscore Washington’s worries that the pact could duplicate NATO efforts and possibly shut out U.S. arms makers from future European defense contracts. (Reuters, 02.27.18)

Missile defense:

  • “I hope what was said today will sober any potential aggressor or unfriendly gestures towards Russia, like the deployment of an ABM system and the development of NATO infrastructure close to our borders. That should be seen from the military point of view as inefficient, financially costly and simply useless. Nobody listened to us before. Listen to us now,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said in his address to the Russian parliament. Responding to Putin’s announcement, Pentagon spokesperson Dana White said the U.S. will stick to its insistence that U.S. missile defenses are not a threat to Russia (Bloomberg, 03.01.18, AP, 03.01.18)
  • Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said March 1 that elements of NATO's anti-missile system deployed in Poland, Romania and Alaska were like an "umbrella with holes in it." (Reuters, 03.01.18)

Nuclear arms control:

  • “President Putin has confirmed what the United States government has known all along, which Russia has denied: Russia has been developing destabilizing weapons systems for over a decade in direct violations of its treaty obligations,” Sarah Huckabee Sanders, the White House spokesperson, said in response to Putin’s announcement. The Kremlin on March 2 rejected these allegations. In a press briefing of the State Department, spokesperson Heather Nauert also accused Russia of violating the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty. Nauert also noted that Putin was speaking ahead of the March 18 election. (AP, 03.01.18, Xinhua, 03.01.18, Reuters, 03.02.18)
  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Feb. 28 that the U.S. was still deploying "strategic arms" in Europe and was training European countries to use nuclear weapons, violating a major nuclear arms agreement called the Non-Proliferation Treaty. (NBC, 02.28.18)
  • Moscow urges Washington to ensure that disputed issues arising from the New START treaty be adequately settled, Russia's Foreign Ministry said in a Feb. 27 statement. "The result announced by the U.S. has been achieved not only thanks to real cuts in armaments, but also by way of unilaterally excluding 56 Trident-II submarine-launched ballistic missile launchers and 41 B-52H heavy bombers from being counted under the Treaty that were re-equipped in a way that the Russian side cannot confirm that these strategic offensive armaments were made unfit for SLBMs and the nuclear armament of heavy bombers.” (TASS, 02.27.18)
  • Russia’s Foreign Ministry has postponed planned talks with the United States on strategic stability after the U.S. canceled consultations on cyber security. The consultations were to take place in Geneva on Feb.27-28. The Russian delegation led by Kremlin aide Andrei Krutskikh had arrived, but was then notified by the U.S side that the U.S. delegation, led by Deputy Coordinator for Cyber Issues at the State Department Michele Markoff, could not attend, according to Kommersant. (Reuters, 03.02.18, Russia Matters, 03.02.18)
  • U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called on Feb. 26 for a new global effort to get rid of nuclear weapons, drawing a cautious response from envoys of atomic-armed powers at odds for decades over nuclear disarmament. (Reuters, 02.26.18)

Counter-terrorism:

  • No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

  • Syrian government forces aim to advance into the eastern Ghouta region one "bite" at a time, a pro-government commander said on March 2, as a war monitor said the army had seized new ground from rebels. In one of the deadliest offensives, government air strikes and bombardment have killed hundreds of people over 12 days in eastern Ghouta, an area of besieged towns and farms that is the last major rebel-controlled area near the capital. France said President Emmanuel Macron and U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to work together to implement a U.N.-backed ceasefire that has failed to stop the onslaught, and called on Russia to get Damascus to abide by it. (Reuters, 03/02.17)
    • The Russian government has earlier announced the start of a “humanitarian pause” for the rebel-held enclave of eastern Ghouta. The U.N. Security Council passed a resolution this weekend demanding a month-long truce in Syria to allow humanitarian access to besieged areas and areas under deadly bombardment. (The Moscow Times, 02.27.18) 
    • Appealing to Russia, Iran and Turkey as the leaders of the Syrian peace talks in Astana, EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini called on them to "implement a genuine humanitarian pause for at least 30 consecutive days throughout Syria." (Reuters, 02.28.18)
  • The Russian military said on March 1 Syrian rebels were preventing civilians in eastern Ghouta from leaving dangerous areas.  (Reuters, 03.01.18)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Feb. 28 that Russia had managed to evacuate "quite a big group" of civilians from eastern Ghouta. Putin also said Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan had helped broker the evacuation. (Reuters, 02.28.18)
  • Russia is playing a destabilizing role in Syria, the head of U.S. Central Command said on Feb. 27. "Diplomatically and militarily, Moscow plays both arsonist and firefighter, fueling tensions among all parties in Syria … then serving as an arbitrator, to resolve disputes, attempting to undermine and weaken each party's bargaining positions," U.S. Army Gen. Joseph Votel said during a House of Representatives Armed Services Committee hearing. (Reuters, 02.27.18)
  • Robert Wood, U.S. ambassador to the Conference on Disarmament, says Russia has violated its commitments as guarantor of the destruction of Syria's chemical weapons stockpile and failed to prevent Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's government from using them. "Russia is on the wrong side of history with regard to chemical weapons use in Syria," Wood said. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Feb. 28 that Syria has eliminated its chemical weapons stockpiles and placed them under international control, despite "absurd claims" against the Assad government. (RFE/RL, 02.28.18, Reuters, 02.28.18)
  • The United States has set up around 20 military bases in Syria on territory controlled by the Kurds, an official from Russia's Security Council said on March 1. (Reuters, 03.01.18)
  • Leaked audio recordings said to be of Russian mercenaries in Syria capture lament and humiliation over a battle in early February involving U.S. forces and Russian nationals. Published by Polygraph.info—a fact-checking website produced by Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, news organizations that receive funding from the U.S. government—the audio recordings paint a picture of Russian mercenaries essentially sent to die in an ill-conceived advance on a U.S.-held position in Syria. Polygraph says the audio recordings are from a source close to the Kremlin. (Business Insider, 02.26.18)
  • “$200 billion to $500 billion will be needed for the reconstruction of the Syrian economy, and the first priority will, as [Syrian] President Bashar al-Assad has said, be given to Russian businesses,” said Sergei Katyrin, president of the Russian Chamber of Commerce. (Financial Times, 03.02.18)
  • There is an effort by the Russian government to bring home and care for Russians who were raised by Islamist militants in the Islamic State. While Russia, which has so far returned 71 children and 26 women since August, may seem surprisingly lenient in its policy, its actions reflect a hardheaded security calculus: better to bring children back to their grandparents now than have them grow up in camps and possibly return as radicalized adults. (New York Times, 02.24.18)
  • Of the Russians surveyed by the state-run VTSiOM pollster, 73 percent said Russia’s air force has “definitely” or “probably” achieved its objectives in Syria. (The Moscow Times, 02.27.18)

Cyber security:

  • Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on March 2 dismissed a suggestion that Russian hackers were behind a cyberattack in Germany, saying that Russia was now being blamed for any such attack and without any proof. Germany said Feb. 28 that hackers had breached its government computer network with an isolated attack and German media reported that the attack was launched by Russian hacker group APT 28. German Economy Minister Brigitte Zypries on March 1 said there were no indications thus far that Russia was behind the attack. (Reuters, 02.28.18, Reuters, 03.02.18)
  • Russian military spies hacked several hundred computers used by authorities at the 2018 Winter Olympic Games in South Korea, according to U.S. intelligence. They did so while trying to make it appear as though the intrusion was conducted by North Korea, what is known as a “false-flag” operation. (The Washington Post, 02.24.18)
  • Russian-born Gennadiy Kapkanov, who is believed to have headed the complex and sophisticated criminal network of computer servers known as Avalanche, was arrested in Kiev by Ukrainian cyberpolice on Feb. 25. (RFE/RL, 02.26.18)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree authorizing his secretive Federal Guard Service to counter cyberattacks and protect the personal data of public servants. (The Moscow Times, 02.27.18)
  • Czech President Milos Zeman has repeatedly lobbied for suspected Russian hacker Yevgeny Nikulin detained in Prague and wanted by the United States to be extradited to Russia. (RFE/RL, 02.24.18)
  • Russian propagandists targeted the popular news-sharing website Reddit to influence American political debate. The Daily Beast says it has obtained files showing a Russian troll farm was active on Reddit. (BBC, 03.02.18)

Elections interference:

  • Special counsel Robert Mueller is assembling a case for criminal charges against Russians who carried out the hacking and leaking of private information designed to hurt Democrats in the 2016 election. One U.S. official said the charges are not imminent, but other knowledgeable sources said they are expected in the next few weeks or months. (NBC News, 03.01.18)
  • Special counsel Robert Mueller is investigating a period of time last summer when U.S. President Donald Trump seemed determined to push Attorney General Jeff Sessions to resign. On Feb. 28, Trump skewered Sessions about his decision to order the Justice Department's inspector general to investigate allegations that the FBI improperly obtained a warrant to conduct surveillance on former Trump campaign adviser Carter Page. Sessions said Feb. 27 that the Justice Department’s internal watchdog will investigate how the FBI and federal prosecutors obtained warrants from the nation’s secret spy court to surveil Page. (New York Times, 03.01.18, Wall Street Journal, 02.27.18)
  • U.S. President Donald Trump has not ordered or authorized intelligence agencies to retaliate against Russian meddling and disinformation campaigns, resulting in a response that has not deterred Moscow, a top U.S. intelligence official has testified. Adm. Mike Rogers, director of the U.S. Cyber Command and the National Security Agency, told Congress Feb. 27 that neither Trump nor Defense Secretary Jim Mattis had granted him additional powers to counter what he said were Russian efforts to sow discord in the United States. Lt. Gen. Paul Nakasone, Trump's nominee to replace Rogers, said on March 1 he did not think Russia, China and other countries expected much of a response from the United States to cyberattacks. (RFE/RL, 02.28.18, Reuters, 03.01.18)
  • The United States has pledged to impose long-delayed sanctions in retaliation for Russia’s alleged election meddling within a month. “You can expect sanctions will be coming in the next 30 days,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin was cited as saying Feb. 26. (The Moscow Times, 02.27.18)
  • U.S. intelligence and election officials have stepped up efforts to protect this year’s midterm elections over fears of Russian meddling. State election officials gathered for two “unprecedented” briefings from intelligence officials last week. “Advanced persistent threats are out there,” said Matthew Masterson, outgoing chairman of the bipartisan U.S. Election Assistance Commission. (Financial Times, 02.25.18)
  • U.S. intelligence had evidence that voter registration systems or websites in seven states—Alaska, Arizona, California, Florida, Illinois, Texas and Wisconsin—were compromised by Russian-backed operatives before the 2016 election but never told the states. The Department of Homeland Security denied the report, a spokesman calling it “factually inaccurate and misleading” in a statement.  (Reuters, 02.27.18)
  • Illinois is working to better protect itself from hacking ahead of the state’s March primary, the state’s top elections official said Feb. 28, noting that federal authorities have warned that the threat of further Russian interference before November’s midterm elections “is still very real.” (AP, 02.28.18)
  • White House Communications Director Hope Hicks said in a House Intelligence Committee interview that if Paul Manafort had gone through the same level of background checks as other campaign aides, he never would have gotten the job of campaign chairman. In her work for Trump, Hicks also was said to tell the panel that she occasionally was required tell "white lies," but later clarified that did not apply to substantive matters. Hicks declined to answer some questions during her interview with the House committee in its investigation of Russian campaign interference. Hicks then said she will resign. (Bloomberg, 02.27.18, Bloomberg, 02.28.18)
  • U.S. Democrats have released a redacted memo challenging Republican claims that the FBI abused government surveillance powers in its investigation of Russia election meddling, a document U.S. President Donald Trump had previously blocked in its full form. Democrats wrote that the FBI and Justice Department “did not abuse” procedures, “omit material information” or “subvert” government regulations in requesting court permission to conduct surveillance on a member of the Trump campaign team. (RFE/RL, 02.25.18)
  • U.S. President Donald Trump’s former campaign chairman is maintaining his innocence as he faces charges he acted as an unregistered foreign agent and directed an international money-laundering conspiracy. Paul Manafort’s formal plea of not guilty came Feb. 28 during a brief hearing in Washington. (Reuters, 02.28.18)
  • Allies of U.S. President Donald Trump have created a new fund to cover legal expenses for administration officials and associates caught up in Russia probes led by special counsel Robert Mueller and various congressional committees. (Bloomberg, 02.28.18)
  • Russian trolls used Facebook, Instagram and Twitter to inflame U.S. political debate over energy policy and climate change, a finding that underscores how the Russian campaign of social media manipulation went beyond the 2016 president election, congressional investigators reported. (The Washington Post, 03.01.18)
  • The U.S. government interfered in the 2016 presidential election more than Russia did, according to Carter Page, former foreign policy adviser to the Trump’s campaign. (Bloomberg, 02.27.18)
  • Nastya Rybka, a self-described Belarusian “sex-huntress” has requested asylum in the United States in exchange for information about “Russian government crimes” after she was arrested in Thailand. Rybka was a key figure in opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s video investigation released last month that claimed that Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska had acted as a messenger between U.S. President Donald Trump’s ex-campaign chief Paul Manafort and top Russian official Sergei Prikhodko. Rybka refused for now to offer any evidence, and it’s not clear if she has any. (AP, 02.28.18, The Moscow Times, 02.28.18)
  • Russian efforts to fuel alarm about immigration in Italy had an impact on voters last year, according to an analysis of social-media activity. Russia’s state-controlled news agency Sputnik Italia was the most influential foreign media organization attacking immigration in Italy and among the top two percent of all news sources cited in the online debate. (Bloomberg, 03.01.18)

Energy exports:

  • Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said on March 2 that Russia’s Gazprom had no legal right to unilaterally cancel gas supply and transit contracts with Ukraine and expressed confidence that the contracts would stay in force. Gazprom said earlier on March 2 it had asked a court to terminate its gas supply and transit contracts with Ukraine after being ordered to pay $2.56 billion to Kiev. The EU is ready to mediate in the latest natural-gas dispute between Ukraine and Russia. (Reuters, 03.02.18) 
  • “Only Gazprom is capable of increasing gas supplies to European customers to maximum levels at a breakneck speed,” Alexey Miller, CEO of Gazprom, said in reference to increased demand for Russian gas in Europe due to a blast of Arctic air this week. “There’s no other supplier that could cope with the task.” The state-run exporter ended February with record-high shipments to Europe (99.2 million cubic meters a day), its main market. (Bloomberg, 03.02.18)
  • The United States will overtake Russia as the world’s biggest oil producer by 2019 at the latest, the International Energy Agency said Feb. 27, as the country’s shale oil boom continues to upend global markets. (Reuters, 02.26.18)
  • Russia remained the top crude oil supplier to China in January, data showed, beginning 2018 on a strong note after the start-up of an expanded trans-Siberia pipeline and as Beijing released more crude import quotas to independent refiners. (Reuters, 02.24.18)

Bilateral economic ties:

  • A group of U.S. investors is seeking Washington's approval to acquire the nearly 50 percent collateral in U.S. refiner Citgo held by Russia's largest state-owned energy firm Rosneft. (Reuters, 02.26.18)
  • VTB, Russia’s second biggest lender, has sold some of its shares in fast food chain Burger King, owned by Restaurant Brands International Inc, VTB Senior Vice President Dmitry Pyanov said Feb. 26. (Reuters, 02.26.18)
  • U.S. pizza brand Sbarro is re-entering the Russian market, encouraged by a nascent economic recovery but wary of taking aggressive steps after its long-time franchisee fell prey to a downturn. (Reuters, 03.02.18)

Other bilateral issues:

  • U.S. President Donald Trump extended certain sanctions introduced earlier against Russia in connection with the crisis in Ukraine for one year, the White House said March 2. The measures adopted in 2014 on March 6, March 16, March 20 and Dec. 19 "must continue in effect beyond March 6, 2018," according to the statement. (TASS, 03.02.18)
  • Russian deputy prime-minister Arkady Dvorkovich expects some damage to Russia from new duties on steel and aluminum imports announced by U.S. President Donald Trump. (Reuters, 03.02.18)
  • U.S. oil company Exxon Mobil says it will withdraw from its joint venture with Russia's state-controlled Rosneft due to U.S. and European sanctions against the country. (AP, 03.01.18)
  • The United States has warned governments around the world that they could face sanctions over any "significant transactions" they make with Russia's military. The warnings officials disclosed on Feb. 21 to reporters in Washington follow the U.S. State Department's claim this week that the threat of U.S. sanctions on Russia's defense industry has already cost Moscow some $3 billion in lost military sales. (RFE/RL, 02.22.18)
  • A plaza dedicated to Russian opposition figure Boris Nemtsov has been unveiled in Washington, three years after the politician was gunned down on a bridge by the Kremlin on Feb. 27, 2015. (The Moscow Times, 02.28.18)
  • Two Chechen men living in the Washington metropolitan area are accused of smuggling firearms to the Russian republic. A release from the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of Virginia says 28-year-old Tengiz Sydykov and 27-year-old Eldar Rezvanov were arrested Feb. 27 on charges of international trafficking in firearms, smuggling and other offenses. (AP, 02.27.18)
  • Three astronauts returned from the International Space Station to the snowy, bitingly cold flat lands of Central Asia, ending a 5 1/2-month mission highlighted by robotic renovations, schoolteacher pep talks and heavenly greetings from Pope Francis. (AP, 02.28.18)
  • The Pentagon is preparing options for a possible new job for National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster, an army lieutenant general who has clashed with U.S. President Donald Trump, fueling speculation that McMaster will soon leave his current position. (Bloomberg, 03.02.18)

II. Russia’s domestic news

Politics, economy and energy:

  • “Russia must not only gain a firm foothold as one of the world’s five largest economies by the middle of the next decade, but increase our GDP per capita by one and a half times,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said in his address to the federal parliament. “Falling behind in technology is the main threat and enemy to our country. If we do not change the situation, it will inevitably intensify,” Putin said.  (Bloomberg, 03.01.18)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin said in his address to parliament on March 1 that Russia had to double spending on road infrastructure by committing over 11 trillion rubles to improve the country's road network. He also told lawmakers that a bridge being built between Russia and Crimea would start operating in the next couple of months. (Reuters, 03.01.18)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin told lawmakers that Russia had to halve the poverty rate within six years and provide jobs for people. Putin said that as many as 20 million Russians were living in poverty and that the government had to ensure that real incomes grew. (Reuters, 03.01.18, Reuters, 03.01.18, Bloomberg, 03.01.18)
  • “This trend will continue in the coming years and will become a serious obstacle to economic growth,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said in reference to Russian demographics in his address to the federal parliament. Over the next six years, Russia will allocate at least 59.9 million dollars for demographic development, he said. “Life expectancy needs to exceed 80 years by the end of the next decade,” he added. All in all Russia will spend 3.4 trillion rubles ($60.07 billion) to support families and demographic growth in the next six years, he said. (Bloomberg, 03.01.18, Reuters, 03.01.18)
  • Russia must lower mortgage rates and get them down towards 7 percent in order to solve the country's housing problem, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in his address to parliament on March 1. (Reuters, 03.01.18)
  • “It is important to make it easier to get Russian citizenship. The focus should be on people that the country needs — young, healthy, well-educated people,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said in his address to parliament. (Bloomberg, 03.01.18)
  • Russia shed its junk status on March 2 after S&P Global Ratings boosted the credit score of the world’s biggest energy exporter to investment grade. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov touted the decision as proof the economy had adapted to lower oil prices and international sanctions. (Bloomberg, 02.25.18)
  • Driven by shock, Moscow has laid the foundations for a more sustainable future: under a new rule, all revenue from oil priced above $40 a barrel is off-limits for ordinary budget spending and must be saved in the National Welfare Fund for long-term investment. (Financial Times, 02.27.18)
  • Russia’s purge of troubled lenders keeps feeding state-owned Sberbank PJSC. Total deposits at Sberbank, which is run by former economy minister Herman Gref, grew by 6 percent last year even as the number of employees fell by 2.8 percent. That helped lift net income by 22 percent in the fourth quarter, to 172.4 billion rubles ($3.1 billion). Gref has pledged to return 50 percent of profit through dividends by 2020. (Bloomberg, 02.28.18)
  • Russian billionaire Vladimir Potanin’s Cyprus-based firm Whiteleave, aluminum giant Rusal and Roman Abramovich’s Crispian have agreed to delay a sale of a 2 percent stake in Norilsk Nickel by Abramovich to Potanin. (Reuters, 02.27.18)
  • Rosatom's investment has increased over the past six years by about 20 percent, while the share of its funding from the state budget has decreased from 40 percent to 24 percent, Rosatom chief Alexey Likhachov told Russian President Vladimir Putin. (World Nuclear News, 02.28.18)
  • Several thousand people gathered in central Moscow Feb. 25 to honor slain opposition politician Boris Nemtsov. Nemtsov was gunned down on Feb. 27, 2015, while crossing a bridge close to the Kremlin. Five men have been given lengthy prison sentences for his killing, but Nemtsov’s supporters claim the masterminds behind the murder are still at large. (The Moscow Times, 02.25.18)
  • Roskomnadzor, Russia’s telecommunications watchdog, said it removed opposition politician Alexei Navalny’s website from the banned registry after the website’s administration had complied with the ruling of a court decision. (TASS, 02.26.18)
  • Vladimir Zhirinovsky and Ksenia Sobchak clashed at the first Russian presidential TV debate on Feb. 28, with the ultranationalist leader calling Sobchak a "whore" after being doused by her with water. (RFE/RL, 02.28.18)
  • One of the three journalists to have anonymously accused senior Russian lawmaker Leonid Slutsky of sexual harassment late last month has now publicly identified herself as a producer at an independent television news network. (The Moscow Times, 03.02.18)
  • Russian experts have found Yury Dmitriyev, a historian and activist who is being tried on child pornography charges his supporters say are politically motivated, psychologically healthy. (RFE/RL, 02.27.18)
  • A Danish newspaper said Feb. 27 a whistleblower warned the management of Denmark’s biggest bank, Danske Bank, in 2013 that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s family members and Russia’s spy agency were using its Estonian bank branch for money laundering. It was not clear how the investigative reporters connected Putin’s family members and Russia’s Federal Security Service to the transactions. (AP, 02.27.18)
  • Although Russian athletes were not allowed to march behind the Russian flag at the Winter Olympics closing ceremony, Russia was restored to the International Olympic Committee on Feb. 28. (New York Times, 02.24.18, New York Times, 02.28.18)

Defense and aerospace:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed Russia’s updated military armament strategy, his spokesperson confirmed on Feb. 26. Around 19 trillion rubles ($340 billion) would be allocated on the new rearmament program, Kommersant reported last year. (The Moscow Times, 02.26.18)
  • “The operation in Syria has proved the increased capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces. In recent years, a great deal has been done to improve the Army and the Navy. The Armed Forces now have 3.7 times more modern weapons. Over 300 new units of equipment were put into service,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said. (Kremlin.ru, 03.01.18)
  • Russia is developing a new long-range unmanned supersonic strike aircraft that would be capable of hitting both mobile and stationary targets. Unlike comparable Western developments that rely on stealth, the Russians are—at least for this particular project—planning on using a combination of low altitude and supersonic speeds to defeat enemy air defenses. (The National Interest, 02.28.18)
  • A network of businesses linked to Yevgeny Prigozhin, a figure known as “Putin’s chef,” has lost billions of rubles in defense ministry contracts in the past year. (The Moscow Times, 03.02.18)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

  • Officials say a Russian businessman accused of smuggling nearly 400 kilograms of cocaine from Argentina into Russia has been arrested in Germany. The Russian Embassy in Berlin said that Andrei Kovalchuk was arrested in Berlin on a Russian request sent via Interpol. Earlier this month, Argentina arrested six people suspected of running a cocaine smuggling ring between the Russian Embassy in Buenos Aires and Moscow. The aircraft used in the drug run was identified as a Russian diplomatic plane. (AP, 03.02.18, The Moscow Times, 02.27.18)
  • The former head of a major state contractor tasked with building a new spaceport in Russia’s Far East has been sentenced, along with his colleagues, to prison terms of up to 12 years for mass fraud. (The Moscow Times, 02.26.18)
  • A student from Nigeria has been hospitalized in southern Russia after a knife-wielding assailant stabbed him in the neck. (The Moscow Times, 02.27.18)
  • Russian police have busted a synthetic drug smuggling ring that operated through an online store and accepted cryptocurrency. (The Moscow Times, 02.27.18)

III. Foreign affairs, trade and investment

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

  • Former Afghan President Hamid Karzai believes Russia can play a decisive role in ending America’s longest war. “Russia can contribute massively to peace in Afghanistan,” he said. The Taliban issued a cool response to proposals that they should begin peace talks with the Afghan government, a day after Afghan President Ashraf Ghani offered a pact to recognize the insurgents as a legitimate party in negotiations. (Bloomberg, 03.01.18, Reuters, 03.01.18)

China:

  • “Our policies will never be based on claims to exceptionalism. We protect our interests and respect the interests of other countries. We observe international law and believe in the inviolable central role of the U.N. These are the principles and approaches that allow us to build strong, friendly and equal relations with the absolute majority of countries. Our comprehensive strategic partnership with the People’s Republic of China is one example … We will also continue to work on a greater Eurasian partnership,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said in his March 1 address to parliament.  (Kremlin.ru, 03.01.18)

Ukraine:

  • The Trump administration told Congress on March 1 that it plans to sell Ukraine 210 anti-tank missiles, in a major escalation of U.S. lethal assistance to Ukraine’s military. The $47 million sale includes the 210 American-made Javelin missiles along with 37 command launch units. The weapons will probably be delivered to Ukraine around mid-April. In anticipation of the sale, the United States has already started training Ukraine’s forces on how to use them. (AP, 03.01.18)
    • Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko says the first delivery of lethal defensive weaponry from the United States is expected in weeks. Poroshenko also called the ongoing conflict in the country's east "not frozen, but a battlefield." (RFE/RL, 02.28.18)
  • “What we have proposed is for a U.N. mandated peacekeeping force to go in and replace Russian forces and the separatist entities and create a secure space for a period of time where you can have local elections, where amnesty would be granted, where special status is granted,” Kurt Volker, U.S. special representative for Ukraine negotiations, said during a lunch meeting at the Center for the National Interest on Feb. 26. “At the end of that process, then the territory would be restored back to Ukraine.” (The National Interest, 02.27.18)
  • Former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich offered his services on March 2 as an intermediary between the Ukrainian government and pro-Russian separatists. (Reuters, 03.02.18)
  • Russia and Ukraine have exchanged border guards who spent months in captivity after crossing into foreign territory. (The Moscow Times, 03.02.18)
  • The commander of Ukraine's armed forces has warned of possible "wide-scale aggression" by Russia against his country. Viktor Muzhenko, the Ukrainian military's chief of staff, said in an interview that Kiev's army must be prepared for any type of Russian threat amid its ongoing war against Moscow-backed separatists. (RFE/RL, 02.23.18)
  • Ukraine's parliament has approved legislation creating an anticorruption court demanded by protest groups and the country’s external backers. (RFE/RL, 03.01.18)
  • The European Commission is moving closer to approving a 1 billion euro ($1.22 billion) financial package to Ukraine, although officials are awaiting further signs from Kiev to ensure that its reform process remains on track before the funds will be delivered. (RFE/RL, 02.28.18)
  • Former European leaders who tried to bring Ukraine closer to Europe before a 2014 uprising there reacted with shock on Feb. 24 after a federal indictment accused former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort of secretly paying former European officials some two million euros in 2012 and 2013 to lobby on the country's behalf. (New York Times, 02.24.18)
  • U.S.-based human rights group Freedom House says Ukraine’s parliament risks endangering the country’s democracy if it votes on draft laws that would increase government monitoring of civil society institutions. (RFE/RL, 02.28.18)
  • The Kennan Institute, a think tank dedicated to the study of post-Soviet countries, will close its Kiev office. “As the safety of our employees and affiliates has been threatened, I have personally contacted high-level U.S. officials to explain my concern and request that all possible steps be taken by them and Ukrainian authorities to protect our people,” center director Jane Harman wrote in the statement. (Wilson Center, 03.02.18, Kyiv Post, 03.02.18,)

Russia’s other post-Soviet neighbors:

  • Armenia's parliament chose Armen Sarkissian as the country's new president on March 2 in a vote that is meant to herald the start of a power shift to the country's prime minister and parliament. (Reuters, 03.02.17)
  • Armenia has canceled two 2009 protocols aimed at normalizing bilateral relations with bitter regional rival Turkey. (RFE/RL, 03.01.18)
  • The U.S. Agency for International Development says the government in Azerbaijan is putting up obstacles to its operations in the country. (AP, 03.01.18)
  • Leaders from Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia on March 2 criticized the presence of Russian military in their countries saying they are a destabilizing presence in the three ex-Soviet republics. (AP, 03.02.18)
  • The European Union says the death of a Georgian man in the breakaway region of South Ossetia and the detention of two others is a "source of grave concern." (RFE/RL, 02.26.18)
  • Uzbek authorities say the country's former prosecutor-general, Rashidjon Qodirov, is being investigated for alleged extortion, bribery and abuse of office. (RFE/RL, 02.24.18)

IV. Quoteworthy

  • When asked if there was a historical event that he would have liked to have prevented, Russian President Vladimir Putin said: “Disintegration of the Soviet Union.” (Russia Matters, 03.02.18)