5 Things to Know

1. During his Dec. 17 address to the Russian Defense Ministry’s board and a national call-in show on Dec. 19, President Vladimir Putin reaffirmed Russia’s reliance on nuclear deterrence and stressed Russia’s readiness to continue waging a conventional war in Ukraine, but also signaled conditional openness to negotiations of a peace deal with Kyiv. While describing claims that Russia may attack Europe as “nonsense” during the 4+ hour call-in show, Putin warned NATO against any attempt to blockade Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave, saying such actions could trigger an “unprecedented escalation” that could grow into a “large-scale armed conflict.” Putin also confirmed the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus and stressed the central role of Russia’s strategic triad in nuclear deterrence, claiming 92% of this triad’s systems are modern. On Ukraine, Putin said Russia is ready to end the war through negotiations only if the “root causes” of the conflict are eliminated, reiterating demands that Ukraine abandon NATO ambitions. Putin also reiterated that the conflict should be resolved on the basis of principles that he outlined in his speech at the Russian Foreign Ministry last year. In the June 14, 2024, speech, he said Ukraine must withdraw from four of the regions partially occupied by Russia:¹ Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
   1. Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov used his remarks at the expanded Defense Ministry board meeting to assert that “NATO has begun accelerated preparations for confrontation with Russia in the 2030s, creating real prerequisites for continued military action in 2026.” Like his boss Putin, Belousov cast the war in Ukraine as part of a long-term confrontation with NATO and stressed the primacy of Russia’s nuclear deterrence.
2. EU leaders have abandoned a plan to fund Ukraine with €210 billion in frozen Russian assets, which the leaders of France, Germany and some other “Old Europe” countries have been pushing for months, thus failing what the New York Times described as an EU unity test. The decision not to tap the Kremlin’s frozen wealth is a big setback for Kyiv and its supporters in Europe, some of whom described this week as a “break or take” one, while advocating for the use of Russian assets. Instead of using these frozen assets, which European supports have argued was essential for Ukraine to sustain its defense against Russia, the EU agreed to provide Kyiv with €90 billion ($101 billion), largely in loans, through 2027, financed by joint borrowing on capital markets backed by the EU budget.²The deal—without which Ukraine was likely to default as early as next spring—provides a critical two-year financial lifeline. However, in practical terms, that still leaves Kyiv needing around $50 billion per year in additional outside support simply to keep the state functioning, as well as to finance the procurement of drones, drone components and other military equipment. It is crucial to underscore that this is a loan, not a transfer of frozen Russian assets. As such, it adds to Ukraine’s already heavy debt burden rather than easing it, allowing the country to struggle on rather than stabilizing its finances. As reported above, the broader initiative Volodymyr Zelenskyy had been pressing—backed by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron, among others—to mobilize frozen Russian assets has, for now, failed. Opposition to using the frozen Russian funds in such a way has come from Belgium’s Bart De Wever, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico among others. In its preview of a vote by EU leaders this week on whether to use Russian funds for funding Ukraine, The New York Times wrote that this vote could “Unify the European Bloc — or Splinter It.”
3. U.S. and European negotiators in Berlin have reportedly largely agreed with Kyiv on two security documents that would underpin a peace deal: Article 5-like “platinum” security guarantees and a detailed “mil to mil” plan that would build an 800,000 strong Ukrainian peacetime army. U.S. officials say Washington has pledged to help protect Ukraine from a future Russian attack and to seek Senate approval for its role, though the extent of possible U.S. military intervention remains unclear. Moscow has, however, rejected the “NATO-like” security guarantees, with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov saying his country will never accept any NATO-country troops in Ukraine.³ It should be noted that, in contrast to the upbeat description of the planned guarantees for Ukraine as “platinum” Article 5-like, Zelenskyy has his own doubts about whether the United States and Europe would really go to war against Russia if a peace deal broke down, given their refusal to fight for Ukraine after the full-scale invasion in 2022, according to NYT. But he also expresses the hope that “if Putin rejects everything,” the U.S. would impose “additional sanctions on Moscow and provide Ukraine with more weapons to continue the fight.” Zelenskyy’s understanding of the planned guarantees is considerably more realistic than the news stories about security guarantees that would essentially be equivalent to Article 5.
4. Russia Matters’ analysis of ISW data for the past four weeks (Nov. 18–Dec. 16, 2025) indicates that Russian forces gained 215 square miles of Ukrainian territory in that period, an increase over the 169 square miles it gained over the previous four-week period (Oct. 21–Nov. 18, 2025), according to the Dec. 17, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card.
5. Ukraine’s ruling Servant of the People faction leader Davyd Arakhamia said Ukraine faces either a “bad” or “very bad” peace deal with Russia, or continued war, citing strong U.S. pressure for an agreement, Meduza reported.

NB: Due to Harvard University’s winter recess, the next issue of the Russia in Review news digest will be published Jan. 9, 2026. 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• No significant developments.

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• North Korea has publicly acknowledged sending troops to fight for Russia in Ukraine, with Kim Jong Un presiding over a hero’s welcome in Pyongyang for combat engineers returning from Russia’s Kursk region, as state media claimed up to 15,000 soldiers plus thousands of engineers and construction workers served alongside Russian forces in exchange for fuel, food and military technology. (The New York Times, 12.13.25)
• North Korea sent troops to clear mines in Russia's Kursk region earlier this year, leader Kim Jong Un said in a speech carried on Dec. 13 by state media, a rare acknowledgement by Pyongyang of the deadly tasks assigned to its deployed soldiers. (MT/AFP, 12.13.25)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Russia and Iran signed a two‑year foreign ministry cooperation program in Moscow, billed as implementing their new “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” and expanding coordination against U.S. and EU sanctions, while reaffirming support for political‑diplomatic solutions on Iran’s nuclear program and deeper cooperation in energy, transport, and the North‑South corridor via projects like the Rasht–Astara railway. (IntelliNews, 12.17.25)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Russia and Ukraine each hold roughly 5,000 POWs amid a sprawling, multinational cast of captured pro-Russian fighters from some 30 countries in a western Ukraine camp—including Cubans, Africans, and Europeans drawn by money or circumstance—many of whom now express regret or simply wait in limbo for exchanges that have already swapped more than 10,000 combatants. (Wall Street Journal, 12.10.25)
• As Russia’s full-scale invasion enters its fourth year, Lviv’s historic Lychakiv Cemetery has run out of space in its original “Field of Honor” for soldiers killed in the war, forcing the city to open a new burial area and plan yet another, amid continuing uncertainty over the number of dead, missing and unidentified Ukrainian service members. (RFE/RL, 12.14.25)
• Massive Russian strikes since October have pushed Ukraine’s electrical grid to the brink, with Kyiv residents facing up to 16 hours a day without power. Russia launched close to 5,000 drones and missiles in November (vs. about 2,000 a month early in 2025) and has carried out eight large attacks on energy infrastructure since October, bringing Kyiv “one step” from full blackout. (Washington Post, 12.15.25)
  • Half of the capital, Kyiv, did not have power on Dec. 9 (New York Times, 12.13.25)
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and 34 other countries formally approved plans Dec. 16 to create a compensation body to pay for damages to Ukraine caused by the Russian invasion, but questions remain about where the money will come from. (Washington Post, 12.16.25)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin held his annual news conference on Dec. 19, which was once again folded into his televised “Direct Line” call-in show, fielding a wide range of questions, from the Ukraine war, road repairs and tax increases to reports of fraud, birthrates and even the possibility of contact with extraterrestrial life. Asked by an NBC news correspondent whether he would personally bear responsibility for the deaths of Ukrainians and Russians if the war continued into next year because he rejected a U.S.-brokered peace agreement with Ukraine, Putin said the blame would lie solely on the authorities in Kyiv. (MT/AFP, 12.19.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• RM’s analysis of ISW data for the past four weeks (Nov. 18–Dec. 16, 2025) indicates that Russian forces gained 215 square miles of Ukrainian territory in that period, an increase over the 169 square miles it gained over the previous four-week period (Oct. 21–Nov. 18, 2025). In the past week, Dec. 9–16, 2025, however, Russia has gained 9 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, a six-fold decrease from the previous week’s reported gain of 55 square miles, according to the Dec. 17, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (RM, 12.18.25) Around 14% of the Donbas is still held by Ukraine, according to a 12.13.25 estimate by Axios. The 14% estimate had appeared prior to Axios’s article. See, for instance, CNN, 11.21.25, New American, 11.21.25, American Conservative, 11.26.25, New American, 12.09.25. None of these reports provided sources of data for this estimate. In contrast, RM’s estimate, which is based on ISW data, is that Ukraine controls some 11% of Donbas. In contrast, RM’s estimate, which is based on ISW data, is that Ukraine controls some 11% of Donbas.
• Multiple senior Trump administration officials assess that Ukraine is losing the war and would lose if the fighting continued, even though Ukrainian soldiers and other European officials believe Ukraine can defend itself for at least another, especially with increased military and financial support from allies. (Wall Street Journal, 12.14.25)

Friday, Dec. 12, 2025

• On Dec. 12 night, Russia sent 465 drones and 30 missiles into Ukraine, according to the Ukrainian Air Force. The overnight attacks also caused power outages in the nearby regions of Mykolaiv and Kherson, as well as in parts of northern and eastern Ukraine. (New York Times, 12.13.25)
• Ukrainian forces conducted a tactical counterattack in the Kupyansk direction, liberating Kindrashivka, Radkivka, Myrove, and areas in northern Kupyansk, breaking through to the Oskil River and reportedly encircling roughly 200 Russian troops in the city as part of a multi‑week effort to retake Kupyansk. (ISW, 12.12.25)

Saturday, Dec. 13, 2025

• Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Rivne, Vyymka and Vasyukivka. (RM, 12.19.25)
• Russian forces launched 495 total missiles and drones against Ukraine overnight on Dec. 12 to 13, heavily targeting energy infrastructure across the country. (ISW, 12.13.25)
• Russian drones and missiles mounted one of the largest strikes of the war on Odesa, cutting power, heat, and water to much of Ukraine’s main Black Sea port and leaving over 1 million people without electricity nationwide. (New York Times, 12.13.25)
• Ukrainian forces are pressing their counteroffensive in and around Kupyansk, seizing the Yuvileynyi microraion in southwestern Kupyansk, advancing in central Kupyansk and near Petropavlivka, and pushing Russian troops out of Radkivka. (ISW, 12.13.25)
• A Ukrainian drone attack on the central Russian city of Saratov killed two people on Dec. 13, local authorities said. (MT/AFP, 12.13.25)

Sunday, Dec. 14, 2025

• Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces captured Tolstoy and advanced near Yampil and in Siversk. (RM, 12.19.25)
• Ukraine accused Russia of using a drone to strike the Turkish cargo vessel VIVA in Ukraine’s exclusive economic zone in the Black Sea as it carried sunflower oil to Egypt, an attack Zelenskyy condemned as a blow to global food security and vowed to answer in coordination with partners. (The Moscow Times, 12.14.25)
• Ukraine’s Dec. 14 counter-attack around the key railway town of Kupiansk flipped situation maps “from red to blue” after most of the town was liberated and Russian units encircled, The Economist reports. The author calls Kupiansk one of few bright spots as Ukrainian defenses elsewhere retreat faster than at any time since the war began, while Russia presses its offensive with 160,000 troops. (The Economist, 12.17.25)
• ISW reports that Ukrainian long-range strikes hit multiple Russian oil and energy sites and military assets on Dec. 14, including the Afipsky refinery in Krasnodar (6.25m tons/year capacity), the Uryupinsk oil depot in Volgograd, a likely strike on the major Slavneft‑YANOS refinery, a thermal power plant in Smolensk, several oil depots and a power substation in occupied Crimea, plus multiple radars, air-defense assets and command posts. (ISW, 12.14.25)

Monday, Dec. 15, 2025

• Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Gulyaypole, Predtechyno, Shakhove and Stepnohirsk. (RM, 12.19.25)
• Russia fired 153 drones of various types at Ukraine overnight Dec. 14 into Dec. 15, according to Ukraine’s Air Force, which said 133 drones were neutralized, while 17 more hit their targets. In Russia, the Defense Ministry on Dec. 15 said forces destroyed 130 Ukrainian drones overnight. An additional 16 drones were destroyed between 7 a.m. and 8 a.m. local time. Eighteen drones were shot down over Moscow itself, the defense ministry said. (Washington Post, 12.15.25)
• Ukraine’s Security Service says it used new “Sub Sea Baby” underwater drones, operated with the navy, to critically damage a Russian Kilo‑class submarine carrying Kalibr cruise missiles in Novorossiysk, a key Black Sea hub. (Financial Times, 12.15.25)
  • ISW reports that the Russian Black Sea Fleet denies any damage to a Kilo-class submarine in Novorossiysk after Ukraine’s first-ever unmanned underwater vehicle strike, even as open-source evidence suggests otherwise. (ISW, 12.16.25)
• Russia’s strike campaign is close to splitting Ukraine’s power grid east–west, with eastern regions “at the brink” of blackout and Kyiv also at risk; Russia has launched 9,298 drones and 270 missiles in October, 5,444 drones and 216 missiles in November, and 2,757 drones and 91 missiles so far in December, highlighting the critical need for expanded Western air defense support and Ukrainian drone-interceptor programs. (ISW, 12.15.25)
• Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russia’s Caspian region, hitting energy production and refining assets, amid ongoing talks to clinch a peace deal. Ukrainian drones hit Lukoil PJSC’s Korchagin oil platform in the Caspian Sea for the second time in recent days, according to a person familiar with the operation, who spoke on condition of anonymity. That’s fourth attack on Lukoil platforms in the Caspian Sea in the past week. Separately, Ukraine’s General Staff said that the nation’s forces hit a Gazprom PJSC’s gas processing facility in the Astrakhan region, close to the Caspian Sea. (Bloomberg, 12.15.25)

Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2025

• Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Serebryanka and advanced near Dronivka, Svyato-Pokrovske, Zvanivka, Pazeno, in Siversk and Pereyizne. (RM, 12.19.25)

Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2025

• Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Zvanivka, Rivne, Dachne and in Pokrovsk. (RM, 12.19.25)
• Moscow has about 710,000 troops in Ukraine plus a 50,000 reserve, is adding 8,000–9,000 soldiers monthly, exceeds recruitment targets by 20–30%, and suffers over 1,000 casualties a day while still sustaining its offensive. (The Economist, 12.17.25)
• Andrei Belousov claimed at the annual expanded meeting of the Russian MoD’s board: “Overall, as a result of the successful actions of the Joint Group of Forces this year, the combat potential of the Ukrainian armed forces has been reduced by a third.” (Kremlin.ru, 12.17.25)⁴

Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025

• Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Dronivka, Nykonorivka, Pankivka and in Huliaipole. (RM, 12.19.25)
• Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov claimed Russian forces captured over 6,300 square kilometers in 2025, but ISW estimates only about 4,700 square kilometers—roughly 1% of Ukraine—highlighting the slow pace of advances despite Kremlin efforts to portray victory as inevitable. (ISW, 12.18.25)
• An oil tanker caught fire after an overnight drone attack on Russia’s southern city of Rostov, as Ukraine expands the scope of strikes on energy assets. (Bloomberg, 12.18.25)
• Turkey warned both Russia and Ukraine to avoid actions that could endanger Black Sea security after Turkish F-16s shot down an “out of control” drone that approached its airspace from the Black Sea on Dec. 15. The incident follows recent Ukrainian naval drone strikes on Russian “shadow fleet” tankers near Turkey’s coast, which President Recep Tayyip Erdogan condemned as a threat to navigation and safety. (Washington Post, 12.18.25)
• Ukrainian drone strikes on the southern Rostov region killed three people, including two sailors aboard a cargo ship, regional authorities said early Dec. 18. Russia’s Defense Ministry said its air defense systems destroyed three Ukrainian drones over the Rostov region overnight. Overall, it reported downing 47 Ukrainian drones over three Russian regions, annexed Crimea and the Black Sea. (MT/AFP, 12.18.25)

Friday, Dec. 19, 2025

• Ukraine’s Security Service drones attacked the oil tanker Qendil in neutral Mediterranean waters, Ukrainian media reported, citing an SBU source. The vessel was reportedly part of Russia’s “shadow fleet” used to bypass Western oil sanctions and suffered critical damage, leaving it unusable. It was said to be empty, posing no environmental risk. This is the fourth reported strike on such tankers since late November. (Meduza, 12.19.25)
  • Putin commenting on today's Ukrainian attack on a Russian "Shadow Fleet" tanker in the Mediterranean Sea: "This is being done, among other things, for a utilitarian purpose: to increase insurance premiums. This will not achieve the expected result and will not disrupt any supplies, but will only create an additional threat. A response from us will certainly follow.” (Status-6 X Account, 12.19.25)
• Ukrainian drone strikes caused power and heating outages in central Russia’s Oryol region and the southern Rostov region, local authorities said early Dec. 19. (MT/AFP, 12.19.25)
• Putin used his nearly 4.5-hour Results of the Year 2025 call-in show and press conference to project confidence about Russia’s battlefield position in Ukraine and signal no readiness for major concessions. He claimed Russian troops are advancing “along the entire line of contact” and predicted “new successes” by year’s end. (RFE/RL, 12.19.25)
  • Putin claimed during his live “Direct Line” Q&A that that Kupiansk is under Russian control with 3,500 Ukrainian soldiers encircled nearby, and that Russian forces have captured Siversk and Pokrovsk and taken half of Lyman, Myrnohrad, and Huliaipole. (Istories, 12.19.25)
  • Putin claimed during the live Q&A: “Immediately after our forces drove the enemy out of the Kursk region, the strategic initiative passed completely into the hands of the Russian Armed Forces. Our troops are advancing along the entire line of contact: somewhere faster, somewhere more slowly, but everywhere the enemy is retreating. I am sure that by the end of this year we will still witness new successes of our Armed Forces and our fighters on the line of combat contact.” (Kremlin.ru, 12.19.25)
  • Putin said during the live Q&A: “As a result of active and effective actions by our troops, the enemy has apparently suffered very serious losses in its strategic reserves; they are practically exhausted. This is a very significant factor that, I hope, should push the Kyiv regime to resolve all disputed issues and end this conflict by peaceful means. Their reserves have practically run out.” (Kremlin.ru, 12.19.25)
• Stanislav Orlov, call sign “Spaniard,” leader of the Espanyola brigade formed from far-right Russian football ultras to fight in Ukraine, has died, the group announced on Telegram, without specifying cause or date. (Meduza, 12.19.25)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

Monday, Dec. 15, 2025

• Ukrainian defense start-up Frontline Robotics struck a €100mn deal with Germany’s Quantum Systems to produce about 10,000 Linza drones in 2026 at a new €40mn factory in southern Germany, financed by Berlin under its “Build with Ukraine” initiative; initial production will go to Ukraine, with surplus eventually sold to other Western militaries. (Financial Times, 12.15.25)

Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2025

• U.K. steps up air defense support for Ukraine, committing £600 million for Raven, Gravehawk and counter-drone turrets to protect Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure. The U.K.’s national security—the foundation of the Government’s Plan for Change—starts in Ukraine. (UK MOD X Account, 12.16.25)

Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2025

• At the Aspen Security Forum in Washington, Ukrainian defense minister Denys Shmyhal urged Europe to “take responsibility for its own security” and warned that, after “decades of sleep,” hesitation is now a luxury, citing Russia’s full mobilization and sabotage across the continent as proof the Kremlin is “testing Europe and the West” during a turbulent global “order transition.” (Axios, 12.17.25)

Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025

• “If in the spring, Ukraine does not receive the corresponding tranche -- which, in the event of peace, will be used for the country’s reconstruction, and in the event of continued war, for other priorities, above all drone production -- Ukraine’s drone production will be reduced several fold,” Zelenskyy told reporters at a press conference after addressing the summit behind closed doors. Ukraine currently faces a foreign aid shortfall of some $53 billion to $59 billion next year, he added. Western countries have supported the war-torn country with both direct budgetary support and military aid since Russia’s full-scale invasion nearly four years ago, but the upcoming period may be different. (RFE/RL, 12.18.25)

Friday, Dec. 19, 2025

• Australia has completed the transfer of 49 M1A1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine under a A$245-million (over $160 million) military aid package, the Australian Defense Ministry announced. Most of the tanks arrived in July and many are already deployed on the front line. An Australian commander said the combat-proven vehicles will strengthen Ukraine’s ability to resist Russian aggression. (Korrespondent.net, 12.19.25) 

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

Monday, Dec. 15, 2025

• The U.K. has imposed sanctions on Pakistani-Canadian oil trader and former Conservative Party donor Murtaza Lakhani, accusing him of benefiting from or supporting the Russian government through his role in its energy sector, and has also targeted several UAE-based companies linked to him, including Tejarinaft (now Nexus Oil Trading), Fossil Trading, Amur II and Mercantile & Maritime Group. Earlier in the week, the EU blacklisted Lakhani and 23 other individuals and entities tied to Russia’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers, disinformation operations, and cyberattacks, adding four firms based in the UAE, Vietnam and Russia. (Financial Times, 12.18.25, MT/AFP, 12.15.25)

Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2025

• Russia’s Justice Ministry has added German broadcaster Deutsche Welle, as well as Bulgaria’s For Free Russia and Estonia’s MTÜ Ingeri Marja, to its registry of “undesirable” organizations—formalizing a Dec. 1 designation by the Prosecutor General’s Office—after previously labeling DW a “foreign agent” in 2022. (Mediazona, 12.16.25)

• Russia’s Prosecutor General has designated the Dutch-based Stichting Justice Initiative (SJI, formerly “Pravovaya initsiativa” in Russia) an “undesirable organization,” accusing it of helping document alleged Russian war crimes for the ICC and cooperating with banned foreign entities. (Mediazone, 12.16.25)

• Russia’s Justice Ministry on Dec. 16 designated the German broadcaster Deutsche Welle as an “undesirable” organization, making it the latest foreign news outlet to be blacklisted in the country amid a broader crackdown on press freedom. (MT/AFP, 12.16.25)

Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2025

• Estonia’s Prime Minister Kristen Michal said he is ready to stay in Brussels “over Christmas if needed” to win Belgium’s backing for an EU reparations-style loan to Ukraine funded by frozen Russian assets, while Finland’s Petteri Orpo also pushed for using the assets but warned national-budget alternatives are “not possible,” underscoring high-stakes, potentially all‑night talks at this week’s EU summit. (Financial Times, 12.17.25)
• British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Dec. 17 warned former Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich "the clock is ticking" over the frozen £2.5 billion ($3.4 billion) generated from the sale of the club, which has been earmarked to help Ukraine's war victims. (MT/AFP, 12.17.25)
• Russia’s state communications watchdog has started seizing .ru website domains without waiting for parliamentary approval of a proposed law, The Moscow Times has learned. Russian domain registrar Reg.ru informed The Moscow Times’ Russian service on Dec. 17 that it had stopped delegating the moscowtimes.ru domain following a complaint from Roskomnadzor, the watchdog. (MT/AFP, 12.17.25)
• Russia’s state communications watchdog Roskomnadzor indicated Dec. 17 that it might restore access to the online gaming platform Roblox if the U.S.-based company takes steps to comply with Russian law. (MT/AFP, 12.17.25)

Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025

• A court in Russia ordered Raiffeisen Bank International AG’s unit in the country to pay €339 million ($397 million), another ruling forcing payments since the beginning of last year. The court order relates to damages requested by MKAO Rasperia Trading, a company formerly owned by sanctioned businessman Oleg Deripaska that holds a 24% stake in builder Strabag SE. It takes total damages payable by Raiffeisen to more than €2.4 billion. The bank will book provisions on the latest verdict in the fourth quarter. (Bloomberg, 12.18.25)
• The British government on Dec. 18 imposed additional sanctions on 24 individuals and entities linked to Russia, accusing them of being involved in attempts to destabilize Ukraine and undermining its sovereignty. The latest measures include six oil and gas companies, among them Tatneft, Russneft and NNK-Oil, as well as seven trading firms and four chemical companies. (MT/AFP, 12.18.25)
• Finnish authorities have seized a seaside villa owned by sanctioned Russian billionaire Boris Rotenberg in the town of Hanko over unpaid property taxes amounting to several thousand euros, public broadcaster Yle reported Dec. 17, citing enforcement registry records. (MT/AFP, 12.18.25)

Friday, Dec. 19, 2025

• EU leaders have abandoned a complex German-backed plan to fund Ukraine with a “reparations loan” tied to €210 billion in frozen Russian assets, after Belgium and other states raised insurmountable legal, financial and political objections. Instead, after all‑night talks in Brussels, the bloc agreed to provide Kyiv with €90 billion in largely interest‑free loans through 2027, financed by joint borrowing on capital markets backed by the EU budget. Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic won exemptions from any repayment obligations, while leaders pledged to keep exploring ways to connect Russian assets to future reimbursements. The deal offers Ukraine a crucial two‑year financial lifeline but leaves European taxpayers, rather than Russian funds, ultimately on the hook and highlights lingering doubts over EU unity. (Financial Times, 12.19.25, Financial Times, 12.19.25, The Economist, 12.19.25, New York Times, 12.19.25)
• Britain has ruled out a unilateral move to use about £8 billion in frozen Russian assets held by UK banks to support Ukraine after a similar EU scheme collapsed. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, a vocal supporter of deploying immobilised Russian funds for Kyiv’s defense, had planned to act only in coordination with Australia, Canada, and the EU, while Ukraine warns it could face collapse in early 2026 without new aid. (Financial Times, 12.19.25)
  • Putin said during the live Q&A “Results of the Year with Vladimir Putin,” commenting on Western seizures of Russian assets: “What is happening is not a theft – theft is a secret taking of property. Here they are trying to do it openly. This is robbery. But they cannot complete this robbery because the consequences may be very serious for the robbers themselves – up to undermining confidence in the euro zone and in the very foundations of the modern global financial order.” (Kremlin.ru, 12.19.25)
• VTB Bank, Russia’s second largest lender, failed in its legal bid to recover £205 million ($274 million) from its defunct U.K. arm. (Bloomberg, 12.19.25)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations:⁵

• A late‑November to mid‑Dec. 2025 KIIS nationwide survey finds that 72% of Ukrainians would approve a peace plan freezing the front lines with security guarantees (without recognizing occupied territories as Russian), while 75% reject a plan involving Ukrainian troop withdrawal from Donbas, army restrictions and no concrete security guarantees. A nationwide Levada Center survey conducted in Russia from Nov. 18 to 27, 2025, found that support among Russians for moving to peace negotiations continued to grow in November, reaching 65% (an increase of 4 percentage points in a month). Meanwhile, the share of those who believe military operations should continue fell to 26%—the lowest level recorded for the entire period of observation. While previously Levada occasionally asked respondents on what conditions they would support peace, it didn’t do so this time. This makes it difficult to compare the results of its November poll with that of the KIIS poll in November-December. (KIIS, December 2025, Levada, December 2025)

Friday, Dec. 12, 2025

• Ukraine has delivered a 20‑point counterproposal to the latest U.S. peace plan, proposing a three‑part framework (war-ending terms, postwar European security architecture and guarantees and reconstruction/defense), calling for Russian reparations and a mutual pullback to create a demilitarized buffer zone in Donbas, and suggesting a Ukrainian referendum on territorial provisions and elections under a ceasefire with added Western security. (ISW, 12.12.25)
• On Dec. 12, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey told Putin in a meeting on the sidelines of a summit in Turkmenistan that a limited cease-fire for energy facilities and ports “could be beneficial” and a step toward a broader peace deal in the war, according to a statement from Mr. Erdogan’s office. (New York Times, 12.13.25)

Sunday, Dec. 14, 2025

• U.S. President Donald Trump’s top envoys launched two days of meetings with Zelenskyy and European leaders on Dec. 14 as the administration stepped up pressure on Kyiv to put aside its resistance and agree to a peace deal with Russia by year end. The talks between Ukraine and its Western partners have become a tug of war, even without Russia at the table. Washington is pushing for quick decisions, while Zelenskyy and his European backers contend that significant differences remain that must be resolved. Among those points, Ukraine has balked at Washington’s call to withdraw its forces from a portion of the eastern Donbas region that Kyiv’s forces still hold. European and Ukrainian officials have pushed for clarity on what the U.S. would do if Russia were to break a peace deal and attack Ukraine. (Wall Street Journal, 12.14.25)
• Zelenskyy arrived in Berlin for Dec. 14–15 peace talks with U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and European leaders, calling for a “dignified” peace and amendments to a 28‑point U.S. plan he argues is overly favorable to Russia, even as both sides continue strikes on infrastructure and oil facilities. Zelenskyy signaled he is prepared to abandon Ukraine’s NATO membership bid in exchange for robust U.S. and European “Article 5–like” bilateral security guarantees, calling this a major Ukrainian “compromise,” but rejected U.S. pressure for territorial concessions. He said talks on the future of the heavily fortified part of Donetsk Ukraine still holds must be based on the current front line, with any withdrawal subject to reciprocal Russian pullbacks and ultimately to a Ukrainian popular decision, possibly via referendum. (RFE/RL, 12.14.25, Wall Street Journal, 12.14.25, Financial Times, 12.14.25, Washington Post, 12.14.25)
• Putin wants Ukraine to withdraw its forces from the part of the Donetsk region still under its control among the key conditions for peace, a demand rejected by Kyiv. Zelenskyy said that the U.S. had floated an idea for Ukraine to withdraw from the Donetsk and create a demilitarized free economic zone there, a proposal he rejected as unworkable. “I do not consider this fair, because who will manage this economic zone?” he said. “If we are talking about some buffer zone along the line of contact, if we are talking about some economic zone and we believe that only a police mission should be there and troops should withdraw, then the question is very simple. If Ukrainian troops withdraw 5–10 kilometers, for example, then why do Russian troops not withdraw deeper into the occupied territories by the same distance?” (Washington Post, 12.14.25)
• Ukraine appeared to reject Trump’s proposal that all troops be withdrawn from the Donbas region to create a “free economic zone” in parts of eastern Ukraine now held by Kyiv. The proposal would require Ukraine to withdraw from “fortress belt” of cities that Moscow’s forces have failed to capture in more than 11 years of war. Zelenskyy said on Dec. 13 he did “not consider this fair.” “If Ukrainian troops withdraw five to 10 kilometers, for example, then why should Russian troops not also withdraw deeper into the occupied territories by the same distance?” he asked. “This is a question to which there is still no answer, but it is extremely sensitive and very heated.” (Financial Times, 12.14.25)
• Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov rejected key elements of emerging peace proposals, insisting Russia would only accept full control over the Donbas and denying any talks with Washington about a “Korean scenario” that would freeze current front lines. He said Ukraine would “never” regain Crimea or secure NATO membership, declaring there is a “one million percent” guarantee both “won’t happen.” Ushakov dismissed potential Ukrainian and European input into U.S.-brokered plans as unlikely to be constructive and warned Moscow will have “very strong objections,” saying territorial issues were actively discussed when Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Putin. (Financial Times, 12.14.25, Wall Street Journal, 12.14.25, Washington Post, 12.14.25)

Monday, Dec. 15, 2025

• “Two days of intense negotiations between Ukraine, the U.S. and European officials resulted in clear progress on security guarantees for Ukraine but left significant gaps on the issue of territory,” Axios quoted U.S. officials as saying on Dec. 14. Commenting on the outcome of the two-day talks between U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators, one of the U.S. officials said “they had reached agreement on 90% of the issues involved,” according to Reuters. On Dec. 15, Zelenskyy indicated readiness to drop NATO membership demands in exchange for Article-5-like guarantees, while insisting that a ceasefire must freeze forces in place rather than compel unilateral Ukrainian withdrawals, FT reported. U.S. officials said Dec. 15 that the parties were nearing a deal on security guarantees modeled on NATO’s Article 5. One U.S. official said Ukrainian and European counterparts were struck by how far Washington was prepared to go on security assurances — and believed that Russia would accept the arrangement, according to Axios. At the same time, U.S. officials told this media outlet that it would be up to Ukraine to decide how to handle the territorial issue, but warned that the offer of Article-5 like guarantees won’t be on the table “forever.” (RM, 12.15.25)
• Trump said Dec. 15 that he believes a deal to end the Ukraine war is closer than ever before, coming after White House envoys met with Ukrainian officials in Berlin to discuss a peace proposal. Trump said he had "very long and very good" talks with Zelenskyy and the leaders of NATO and European countries, including Britain, France and Germany. "We're trying to get it done, and I think we're closer now," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office when asked about talks in Berlin. "We had numerous conversations with President Putin of Russia, and I think we're closer now than we have been ever, and we'll see what we can do." Asked if he had recently spoken directly to Putin, Trump replied, "Yeah, I have," but he did not give any details. Trump also appeared to suggest that in exchange for security guarantees, Ukraine must agree to hand Russia parts of the eastern Donbas region that Kyiv still holds, something Zelenskyy has previously ruled out. (MT/AFP, 12.16.25)
• German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that "there is a chance for a real peace process between Russia and Ukraine." Merz added: "This is the best chance since the beginning of the war. Without U.S. President Donald Trump, we would not have reached the positive dynamics of the last few hours." Merz noted that "territory is a key issue, but only Ukraine will decide whether to cede territory." (Reuters, 12.15.25)
• In talks in Germany and Berlin, Zelenskyy reiterated that Kyiv is ready to forgo NATO membership in exchange for strong, NATO‑like U.S. and European security guarantees but refuses to cede territory it currently controls, countering a U.S. peace plan tying a settlement to Ukrainian concessions and a “free economic zone” in eastern Ukraine. U.S. officials say Washington, Kyiv and European partners have agreed on the “platinum standard” of Article 5–style guarantees—requiring Senate ratification—and closed roughly 90% of issues in a 20‑point draft, with borders in the Donbas left to direct Russia‑Ukraine talks. EU leaders pledged to work on a European‑led multinational peacekeeping force. Moscow, however, says it seeks a final peace, not a truce, and shows no sign of softening its territorial demands. (New York Times, Reuters, Financial Times, RFE/RL, 12.14–16.25)
• Russia has indicated it’s open to Ukraine joining the European Union as part of a potential peace deal to end the war. The U.S. has also agreed to provide unspecified security guarantees to Kyiv as part of the deal but that such an offer won’t be on the table “forever.” Ukraine has continued to reject the U.S. push for ceding territory to Russia. (AP, 12.15.25)
• In a statement, 12 European leaders laid out some of the details on Dec. 15 evening. They said that under the draft, the West would “provide sustained and significant support to Ukraine” to sustain a peacetime military of about 800,000 forces, which would be both the largest and most battle-tested in Europe. It said a “European-led ‘multinational force Ukraine’” would be assembled from “willing nations,” which were not named. France and Britain have previously said they would contribute, and Poland and others are expected to. But it is not clear from the wording of the statement whether the force would be based inside Ukrainian territory — which has long been an issue of contention with Russia. (New York Times, 12.15.25)
• In marathon talks in Germany and Berlin, Zelenskyy reiterated that Kyiv is ready to forgo NATO membership in exchange for strong, NATO‑like U.S. and European security guarantees but refuses to cede territory it currently controls, countering a U.S. peace plan tying a settlement to Ukrainian concessions and a “free economic zone” in eastern Ukraine. U.S. officials say Washington, Kyiv and European partners have agreed on a “platinum standard” Article 5–style package and closed roughly 90% of a 20‑point draft, with borders in the Donbas left to direct Russia‑Ukraine talks. An EU Council statement on Dec. 15 confirmed plans for “robust security guarantees,” including peacetime military support, a European‑led “Coalition of the Willing,” a U.S.‑led ceasefire monitoring mechanism, and a legally binding pledge to respond to future Russian attacks. Zelenskyy insists the guarantees be binding and said talks will continue in Miami around Dec. 20–21. Moscow, meanwhile, says it wants a final peace, not a truce, but has not softened territorial demands. (New York Times, Reuters, Financial Times, RFE/RL, ISW, 12.15.25)

Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2025

• According to ISW, Moscow has explicitly rejected U.S.- and EU-proposed “NATO-like” security guarantees for Ukraine and reiterated maximalist territorial demands. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Russia will never accept any NATO-country troops in Ukraine and insisted that all five regions Moscow claims — including still-unoccupied parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, plus Crimea — must be recognized as Russian. He framed the war’s end as dependent on when Ukraine’s supporters “recognize the inevitable” of Russian success and said the war’s purpose is to make Ukrainians “find out that they belong in Russia,” underscoring Moscow’s goal of political control, not just land. ISW notes the Kremlin is also rejecting ideas such as a Christmas truce and has repeatedly knocked out key elements of earlier peace drafts. (ISW, 12.16.25)
• U.S. and European negotiators in Berlin have largely agreed with Kyiv on two security documents that would underpin a peace deal: an Article 5 like, legally binding guarantee and a detailed “mil to mil” plan to build an 800,000 strong Ukrainian peacetime army, deploy a Europe led force with some “boots on the ground” in western Ukraine, and rely on U.S. intelligence and a U.S.-run cease-fire monitoring system to deter and detect renewed Russian aggression. U.S. officials also say Washington has offered Ukraine “platinum,” Article 5–like security guarantees—requiring a congressional vote—as part of a push to seal a Russia‑Ukraine truce by year-end, despite unresolved questions over eastern territories and Moscow’s acceptance. The package would back a peacetime Ukrainian army of up to 800,000 troops, support a Europe‑led force with U.S. backing, and establish a U.S.-run ceasefire monitoring system. U.S. officials say Washington has pledged to help protect Ukraine from any future Russian attack and seek Senate approval for its role, though the extent of possible U.S. military intervention remains unclear. The main remaining obstacle is how to settle contested territories in the Donetsk region. (Washington Post, 12.16.25, Wall Street Journal, 12.16.25, New York Times, 12.16.25)

• The Europeans and Americans agreed to establish a Europe-led and Washington-supported postwar troop presence in Ukraine to “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine,” according to a joint European statement issued late on Dec. 15. But Russia has consistently rejected the prospect of a settlement that allows the presence inside Ukraine of any NATO member troops. (New York Times, 12.16.25)

• On Dec. 16, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov of Russia said that Moscow was not willing to make territorial concessions in talks on ending the Ukraine war, the state news agency Tass said. Ryabkov was talking about the Donbas, as well as Crimea and the parts of eastern Ukraine that Moscow calls “Novorossiya,” or “New Russia,” Tass noted. In the reported comments, Ryabkov said that foreign troops in Ukraine would be a red line for Moscow: “We are open to discussing possible solutions. However, under no circumstances are we prepared to support, approve, or even tolerate any NATO troop presence on Ukrainian territory.” When asked about the potential deployment of European forces in Ukraine outside of the NATO framework, Ryabkov added, “No, no, and no again.” (New York Times, 12.16.25)

• A Levada Center survey ahead of Putin’s Dec. 19 “Direct Line” finds 21% of Russians would ask when the “special military operation” will end, 16% when living standards (wages, pensions, benefits) will improve, 8% about rising prices and taxes, 5% about governance failures, and 4% each about pension reform and healthcare/education, while about one-third would not ask anything or were unsure. (Levada, 12.16.25)

Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2025

• Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that German troops could participate in a coalition to secure a demilitarized zone in Ukraine after a possible peace agreement under rules that would permit them to “retaliate against corresponding Russian incursions and attacks.” “We are not there yet,” Merz told public broadcaster ZDF in Berlin Dec. 16 evening. (Bloomberg, 12.17.25)
• European leaders increasingly argue that a Russia‑leaning peace deal would be worse than no deal, warning it would lock in Moscow’s gains, embolden further aggression, and force Europe into massive rearmament; they are pushing back against Trump’s drive for a quick settlement and preparing to decide this week whether to use frozen Russian assets to fund a $105 billion loan that could cover about two‑thirds of Ukraine’s budget and military needs over the next two years. (Wall Street Journal, 12.17.25)
• The Kremlin rejected a German proposal for a Christmas truce in Ukraine, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying Russia wants “peace” but not a pause that would let Ukrainian forces regroup, while Zelenskyy said both Kyiv and Washington support a holiday or “energy” ceasefire but stressed it ultimately depends on Russia’s political will. (Meduza, 12.17.25)

• Putin told the Russian MoD’s annual board meeting: “We continue to advocate building mutually beneficial and equal cooperation with the United States and European states, and the formation of a unified security system across the entire Eurasian region. We welcome the progress that has emerged in dialogue with the new U.S. administration. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said of the current leadership of most European countries.” (Kremlin.ru, 12.17.25)

• Putin told the Russian MoD’s annual board meeting: “We have always said — and I say it again today — that we are ready to negotiate and resolve all problems that have accumulated in recent years by peaceful means. The U.S. administration demonstrates such readiness, and we are engaged in dialogue. I hope the same will occur with Europe, if not with current political elites, then inevitably as political elites change.” (Kremlin.ru, 12.17.25)
• Putin vowed Russia would “unconditionally” achieve its war aims and “liberate its historic lands,” predicting the European “swine” backing Kyiv would eventually lose power, while signaling openness to Trump-brokered talks only on his terms; he reiterated demands that Ukraine withdraw from the Donbas and promised to expand offensives and create a “buffer zone,” as Defense Minister Andrei Belousov pledged to “maintain and increase” Russia’s current pace of advance. (Financial Times, 12.17.25)

Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025

• Putin’s envoy Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, is expected to travel to Miami this weekend for talks with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and presidential adviser Jared Kushner on a U.S.-proposed plan to end the war in Ukraine. Trump’s advisers will brief Dmitriev on progress in negotiations with Ukrainian and European officials in Berlin and seek Moscow’s response to an updated proposal centered on security guarantees for Kyiv, possible territorial concessions, and limits on NATO involvement. A Ukrainian delegation led by national security adviser Rustem Umerov is also expected in Miami, though no trilateral meeting is planned. (Axios, 12.18.25, Washington Post, 12.18.25)
  • Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the United States does not want to force a ceasefire deal on Ukraine and that upcoming talks in Miami aim only to see whether Ukrainian and Russian demands “can overlap.” He added the administration still does not know whether Vladimir Putin actually wants a deal or to “take the whole country,” comments seen as reassurance to Kyiv and European allies worried about U.S. pressure. (Bloomberg, 12.19.25)

Friday, Dec. 19, 2025

• Ukraine’s ruling Servant of the People faction leader Davyd Arakhamia said Ukraine faces either a “bad” or “very bad” peace deal with Russia or continued war, citing strong U.S. pressure for an agreement. He named two unresolved issues: security guarantees for Ukraine and Russia’s demand for all of Donbas, which Kyiv rejects as a “red line.” Arakhamia also criticized vague NATO-style guarantees requiring only consultations within 72 hours. (Meduza, 12.19.25)
• French President Emmanuel Macron said Europe will have to find a way to directly engage with the Russian leader as the U.S. pushes ahead with peace talks. “Either a lasting peace is reached” in current negotiations “or we find ways for Europeans to re-engage in a dialog with Russia — in transparency and association with Ukraine,” Macron told reporters. (Bloomberg, 12.19.25)
• Putin used his nearly 4.5-hour Results of the Year 2025 call-in show and press conference to reiterate that Russia is “ready and willing” to end the war based on demands laid out in June 2024, including Ukraine abandoning NATO ambitions and withdrawing from four partially occupied regions, and said “the ball is entirely and fully in the court” of Kyiv and its Western backers after talks with Trump. (RFE/RL, 12.19.25)
  • Putin said during the live Q&A: “We very much want and are striving to ensure that next year we can live in conditions of peace and without any military conflicts. We will seek to resolve all disputed issues through negotiations. But we must achieve the elimination of the root causes of the conflict so that nothing like this happens again in the future and peace is long‑term, strong and stable.” (Kremlin.ru, 12.19.25)
  • Putin said during the live Q&A: “We see, feel and know about certain signals, including from the Kyiv regime, that they are ready to conduct some kind of dialogue. The only thing I want to say is that we are ready and want to end this conflict by peaceful means, on the basis of the principles I set out in June last year at the Russian Foreign Ministry, and by eliminating the root causes that led to this crisis.” (Kremlin.ru, 12.19.25)
  • Putin said during the live Q&A : “President Trump is making serious efforts to end this conflict. As I have repeatedly said, he is doing this, in my view, absolutely sincerely. At the meeting with President Trump in Anchorage we coordinated and in practice agreed to his proposals. To say that we are rejecting something is absolutely incorrect and has no basis. The ball is entirely on the side of our Western opponents, above all the Kyiv regime’s leaders and their mainly European sponsors. We are ready for negotiations and to end the conflict by peaceful means.” (Kremlin.ru, 12.19.25)
    • Putin used his annual year-end news conference to say Russia had agreed to some U.S.-proposed compromises but insisted “the ball is entirely in the court” of Kyiv and its Western backers. (New York Times, 12.19.25)
    • Putin used his marathon year-end call-in show to argue that Europe is out of step with a United States that no longer defines Russia as an adversary in its new National Security Strategy, while again blaming the West for the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. He claimed Ukrainian forces are retreating “in all directions,” touted Russia’s economic resilience despite sanctions, and insisted Moscow is ready for peace only on its own terms. (Washington Post, 12.19.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

Sunday, Dec. 14, 2025

• German chancellor Merz, who has spearheaded European efforts to support Ukraine alongside French President Emmanuel Macron and U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, said Saturday that “the decades of the ‘Pax Americana’ are largely over for us in Europe and for us in Germany as well.” He warned that Putin’s aim is “a fundamental change to the borders in Europe, the restoration of the old Soviet Union within its borders… If Ukraine falls, he won’t stop,” Merz warned on Saturday during a party conference in Munich. (Washington Post, 12.14.25)
• Far-right AfD lawmakers in Germany have filed thousands of formal information requests seeking sensitive details on military logistics, arms deliveries to Ukraine, and border surveillance, alarming security officials and critics who warn that publishing such data could aid Russian planning and underscores the party’s closeness to Moscow even as it rises in national polls. (New York Times, 12.14.25)

Monday, Dec. 15, 2025

• The new spymaster of Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service warned on Monday that Russia posed an “acute threat” to the West, plotting arson and sabotage operations, assassinations, and cyber and drone attacks across Europe. “The new frontline is everywhere,” said the chief, Blaise Metreweli, who in October became the first woman to lead the agency, known as MI6, after a career as an intelligence agent. “The export of chaos is a feature, not a bug, in the Russian approach to international engagement,” she said. (New York Times, 12.16.25)
• The new chief of Britain’s foreign intelligence service MI6 accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of deliberately prolonging negotiations to put an end to the war in Ukraine, in an assessment that complicates President Donald Trump’s efforts to broker a deal by year-end. “We all continue to face the menace of an aggressive, expansionist and revisionist Russia, seeking to subjugate Ukraine and NATO members,” Blaise Metreweli said in her first public appearance since she became the head of MI6 in September. She said of Putin: “He is dragging out negotiations and shifting the cost of war onto his own population.” “Putin should be in no doubt, our support is enduring. The pressure we apply on Ukraine’s behalf will be sustained,” she added, in comments that may imply UK intelligence officials think Russia sees its advantage in fighting through the winter. (Bloomberg, 12.15.25)

Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2025

• Turkey shot down an “out of control” unmanned drone approaching its airspace over the Black Sea, scrambling Turkish and NATO F‑16s amid rising regional risks after recent Russian strikes damaged three Turkish-owned cargo ships and several Russia-linked tankers were hit by drones in or near Turkish waters; Ankara continues to push for a limited Black Sea ceasefire. (Financial Times, 12.16.25)

• Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo warned that even if a Ukraine peace deal is reached, Russia will “move their military forces” back toward Finland’s and the Baltic states’ borders, urging EU financial support for heavily burdened eastern-flank countries that are ramping defense spending (Estonia, Lithuania, Poland heading above 5% of GDP) as the U.S. reduces its role in Europe’s security. (Financial Times, 12.16.25)

• Leaders of eight easternmost European Union nations called on the bloc to treat the defense of its border regions as a priority in the face of an aggressive Russia and to unleash funding. Convened by Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo, heads of government from Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, Poland, Bulgaria and presidents of Romania and Lithuania gathered in Helsinki on Tuesday to plot the way forward. “The buildup of European defense will not happen, or continue, unless we as states on the EU’s eastern border make our voices heard,” Orpo told reporters. “We share a strong political will to reinforce our common security and Europe’s defense, starting from the eastern flank.” (Bloomberg, 12.16.25)

Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2025

• Andrei Belousov told the annual expanded meeting of the Russian MoD’s board: “NATO has begun accelerated preparations for confrontation with Russia in the 2030s, creating real prerequisites for continued military action in 2026… Andrei Belousov told the annual expanded meeting of the Russian MoD’s board: All of this indicates NATO’s preparation for military confrontation with Russia by the 2030s. It is not us who are threatening—we are the ones being threatened.” (Kremlin.ru, 12.17.25)
• Vladimir Putin told the Russian MoD’s annual board meeting: “The main outcome of the special military operation is that Russia has regained full sovereignty. Russia has become sovereign in every sense of the word, including thanks to the participation of the Armed Forces.” (Kremlin.ru, 12.17.25)

Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025

• Three Russian border guards crossed into Estonian territory for around 20 minutes on Wednesday, the Baltic nation said, in the latest incident that has put the NATO member on guard about Moscow’s intentions. (Bloomberg, 12.18.25)
• Turkey is seeking to return the Russian-made S-400 air defense systems it bought nearly a decade ago, aiming to end a controversial deal that strained relations with the U.S. and other NATO members. The move could open the door for Ankara to purchase the American F-35 stealth fighters it has long wanted. (Istories, 12.18.25)

Friday, Dec. 19, 2025

• NATO militaries currently lack the resilience for a protracted conflict, the alliance’s top maritime commander warned, reinforcing concern that Europe isn’t yet prepared for a long-term confrontation with Russia. Mike Utley, a vice admiral in the UK’s Royal Navy who leads the bloc’s Allied Maritime Command, said in an interview that Western armed forces need to prepare for a more complicated battlefield ranging from cyber to military threats. (Bloomberg, 12.19.25)
• Turkey’s Interior Ministry said a Russian-made Orlan-10 reconnaissance drone crashed in Kocaeli province in northwestern Turkey. The aircraft, described as “presumably of Russian manufacture,” was found near the village of Çubuklubala in Izmit district, largely undamaged, by local residents. Turkish authorities have opened an investigation into the incident. (Meduza, 12.19.25)
  • Vladimir Putin said during the live Q&A : “There will be no special military operations if you treat us with respect and take our interests into account, just as we tried to take yours into account. If you do not try to ‘cheat’ us as you did with NATO’s eastward expansion, if you do not simply ignore our security interests, then there will be no need for any operations.”  Putin also said: “If anyone tries to create threats like a blockade of Kaliningrad Region, we will destroy these threats. Everyone must understand this and be aware that actions of this kind would lead to an escalation unprecedented up to now, would take the conflict to a completely different level and broaden it up to a large‑scale armed confrontation.” (Kremlin.ru, 12.19.25)
  • Vladimir Putin said during the live Q&A: “The Secretary General of NATO says they must prepare for war with Russia. But can they read? Let them read the new U.S. National Security Strategy. The United States—the key NATO player—does not name Russia as an enemy there. Yet the NATO Secretary General is aiming the alliance at war with us. This shows an insufficient level of professional fitness for such a position.” (Kremlin.ru, 12.19.25)
  • Vladimir Putin said during the live Q&A: “Are we planning to attack Europe? What nonsense. This is being done for domestic political reasons—to create the image of an enemy, to cover up the systemic mistakes many Western governments have made for years in economics and social policy.” (Kremlin.ru, 12.19.25)
  • Vladimir Putin said during the live Q&A: “We have long proposed creating a new security architecture with the participation of the United States, Eastern European states and Russia, so that no one would be excluded and no one would be placed in a difficult position.” (Kremlin.ru, 12.19.25)
  • Vladimir Putin claimed during the live Q&A: “We did not start this war. It was begun after the unconstitutional coup d’état in Ukraine in 2014 and the start of hostilities by the Kiev regime’s leaders against their own citizens in the southeast of Ukraine. After we were deceived over the Minsk agreements, we were forced to use the Armed Forces to end that war, which had been launched by Kiev with Western support.” (Kremlin.ru, 12.19.25)
  • Vladimir Putin said during the live Q&A: “We once had cooperation with NATO, and at one time there was even discussion of direct membership of first the Soviet Union, and later the Russian Federation, in NATO. In both cases it became clear that we were not wanted there, while the promises on non‑expansion of NATO were ignored. The advance of military infrastructure to our borders naturally caused and still causes our legitimate concerns.” (Kremlin.ru, 12.19.25)
  • Vladimir Putin said during the live Q&A: “We are ready to work with … the United Kingdom, with Europe as a whole, with the United States—but on equal terms and with mutual respect. We are not demanding anything extraordinary. We simply insist on the fulfillment of the promises and obligations our Western partners themselves assumed. We were deceived: we were told NATO would not move eastward ‘not one inch,’ yet there were several waves of expansion.” (Kremlin.ru, 12.19.25)
  • Vladimir Putin said during the live Q&A: “If Europe wants to remain as an independent center of civilization, its future must be together with Russia. We naturally complement each other and, by uniting and complementing our capabilities, we would prosper instead of waging war with each other. If this does not happen, Europe will gradually disappear.” (Kremlin.ru, 12.19.25)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• No significant developments.

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• A U.S. representative in Vienna defended President Donald Trump’s plan to resume U.S. nuclear testing, saying Washington would conduct tests “on an equal basis” with other nuclear-armed states amid long-standing U.S. concerns that Russia and China are violating the zero-yield test moratorium, and citing North Korea’s test record. Russian envoy Mikhail Ulyanov rejected U.S. accusations and warned renewed testing would damage global security. (Washington Post, 12.18.25)
• Vladimir Putin told the Russian MoD’s annual board meeting: “This year, the Navy received new submarines, including the strategic missile carrier Knyaz Pozharsky, as well as 19 surface ships and vessels. Successful tests were conducted of the Burevestnik strategic cruise missile of unlimited range and the Poseidon unmanned underwater vehicle. Thanks to nuclear propulsion, these systems will remain unique and unmatched for a long time, ensuring strategic parity, security, and Russia’s global position for decades to come. We will continue refining and improving them, but they already exist. By the end of the year, a medium range missile system with the hypersonic Oreshnik missile will be placed on combat duty. Its first… use took place last November… Of course, a priority for us is the improvement of strategic nuclear forces. As before, they will play the main role in deterring aggression and maintaining the balance of power in the world… (Kremlin.ru, 12.17.25)
• Vladimir Putin told the Russian MoD’s annual board meeting: “We are acquiring new means of destruction and new weapons that have no analogues anywhere in the world, including Avangard, Burevestnik, and others.” “92% of our nuclear forces are modern. No other nuclear power in the world has anything like this.”(Kremlin.ru, 12.17.25)
• Andrei Belousov told the annual expanded meeting of the Russian MoD’s board: “First—clear prioritization. High priority systems include those that will shape the future innovative profile of the Armed Forces: strategic nuclear forces, space assets, air defense systems, communications, electronic warfare and command systems, unmanned and robotic systems, and weapons based on fundamentally new technologies… Second—structuring the program based on required future combat capabilities of the Armed Forces rather than on the sheer number of weapons and equipment, as was done previously. For example, in strategic nuclear forces, this includes the ability to overcome a potential adversary’s missile defense.” (Kremlin.ru, 12.17.25)
• Andrei Belousov told the annual expanded meeting of the Russian MoD’s board: “First—special attention is being given to the development of strategic nuclear forces, the key element of deterrence against aggression. This year, the Borei A class nuclear submarine Knyaz Pozharsky armed with Bulava missiles entered service. Construction continues on two more submarines of this type. The Aerospace Forces received two Tu 160M strategic bombers. The Strategic Missile Forces continue re equipping with the Yars missile system. As noted by Vladimir Vladimirovich, by year end the mobile ground based Oreshnik medium range missile system will be placed on combat duty… Second—organizational changes are being implemented to enhance command, mobility, and autonomy of combined arms formations. This year, five divisions, 13 brigades, and 30 regiments were formed; next year, four more divisions, 14 brigades, and 39 regiments will be formed.” (Kremlin.ru, 12.17.25)
• Vladimir Putin said during the live Q&A: “As President Lukashenko said yesterday, Russian tactical nuclear weapons have been deployed on the territory of Belarus. We regularly conduct exercises; the security of the Union State will, without doubt, be ensured.” (Kremlin.ru, 12.19.25)
  • Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said Russia’s new intermediate-range, nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system arrived in Belarus on Wednesday and is entering combat duty, without specifying numbers. The deployment follows earlier stationing of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in the country and comes as peace talks over Ukraine enter a critical phase. Opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya warned the move further militarizes Belarus and makes it a target. (Washington Post, 12.19.25)
• Russia’s Strategic Rocket Forces have completed deployment of Yars ICBMs in the silos of the 28th Missile Division at Kozelsk, commander Sergey Karakayev said in a Dec. 17 anniversary interview. The division now fields 30 silo-based Yars missiles in three regiments—the 74th, 168th, and 373rd—after earlier regiments were disbanded in 2007–2009. The decision to modernize the remaining silos was taken in 2008, with the first Yars missiles deployed there in 2014. (Russian Forces, 12.17.25)
• President Putin expressed condolences to the family of academician Radiy Ilkayev, praising the late honorary scientific director of Russia’s Federal Nuclear Center for his unique contributions to physics, the nuclear industry, national defense, and technological sovereignty following his death on Dec. 10 at age 87. (Kremlin, 12.13.25)

Counterterrorism:

• A series of recent plots and attacks in Australia, Britain and Europe underscore that while ISIS is too degraded to hold territory, its online propaganda still effectively inspires lone‑wolf terrorism against soft targets, especially Jews, with experts warning its adaptable global network and daily content keep it pre‑eminent in jihadist circles even as Western counterterrorism pressure has reduced its operational capacity. (New York Times, 12.17.25)

Conflict in Syria:

• Two U.S. soldiers and an American civilian interpreter were killed and three troops wounded in an ISIS attack during a counterterrorism “key leader engagement” in Syria, prompting President Donald Trump to vow “very serious retaliation” as U.S. forces continue their long-running anti-ISIS mission in the country. (Financial Times, 12.13.25)
• Former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has retreated into a secluded life in Moscow after losing power and is no longer of interest to his longtime backer Vladimir Putin, The Guardian reported Monday. (MT/AFP, 12.15.25)

Cyber security/AI: 

• At an expanded Defense Ministry board meeting, Russian leaders underscored plans to accelerate military use of artificial intelligence. President Vladimir Putin said the army must stay “at the forefront of technological progress,” calling for rapid deployment of robotics and IT and for “expanding the use of artificial intelligence technologies” in command-and-control systems and autonomous combat platforms. Defense Minister Andrei Belousov said Russia will field new jamming‑resistant reconnaissance and strike drones, “including those with artificial intelligence,” supported by ground control stations and secure communications. He stressed that “special attention must be paid” to introducing AI in the forces, adding that deliveries have already begun of unmanned systems “with elements of artificial intelligence, with automatic target‑tracking and autonomous navigation.” According to Kremlin.ru (12.17.25).

• Germany’s Bundestag suffered a more than four-hour email outage on Monday, in what officials suspect was a Russia-linked cyberattack that began as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy entered the chamber and coincided with nearby U.S.-Ukraine peace talks, days after Berlin summoned the Russian ambassador over sabotage, hacking, and election interference. (Financial Times, 12.16.25) 

• European investigators are probing whether Russian military hackers breached computer systems on a vessel owned by MSC-Mediterranean Shipping Company SA, the world’s largest container shipping group, according to people familiar with the matter. (Bloomberg, 12.16.25)
• Anti-war activist Grigory Sverdlin says an anonymous Russian anti-war hacking group infiltrated Mikord, a key developer of Russia’s Unified Military Register (digital draft database), stayed in the system for months, wiped documentation and source code, and temporarily crippled core functions such as automatic travel and loan restrictions—potentially delaying the draft system’s full operation for several months and affecting more than 30 million records. (Meduza, 12.13.25)
• Fugitive Wirecard executive and alleged Russian agent Jan Marsalek secretly invested millions in Libyan cement and oil‑services assets via offshore structures and proxies, built influence with warlord‑aligned networks, and also used his personal connection to Telegram founder Pavel Durov to invite Libyan partners (including Ahmed Ben Halim) into a blocked pre‑sale crypto token deal, while those UK‑based partners now fight in court over control of his former holdings and their ties to him. (Financial Times, 12.11.25)

Energy exports from CIS:

Monday, Dec. 15, 2025

• The EU imposed asset freezes and travel bans on five businessmen tied to Lukoil and Rosneft and four shipping companies in the UAE, Vietnam and Russia accused of operating “shadow fleet” tankers that clandestinely move Russian oil using high‑risk shipping practices; the package also targets GRU members, the Cadet Blizzard hacking group, and pro‑Russian propagandists. (Washington Post, 12.15.25)
• Indian officials said they expect oil imports from Russia will drop to 800,000 barrels a day this month, after they tightened checks to ensure compliance with Western curbs.. (Bloomberg, 12.15.25)
• A shadow fleet liquefied natural gas tanker has abandoned an effort to load fuel from a U.S.-sanctioned export plant in Russia’s Arctic likely due to a buildup in ice, another challenge for Moscow as it seeks to expand shipments. (Bloomberg, 12.15.25)

Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2025

• Russian crude prices are at their lowest since the war in Ukraine began, as sanctions deepen the discounts the nation’s oil industry needs to offer and benchmark futures tumble. On average, Russian oil exporters are receiving just over $40 a barrel for cargoes shipped from the Baltic, Black Sea and the eastern port of Kozmino, according to data from Argus Media. That’s down 28% over the last three months, with recent restrictions targeting oil giants Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC widening the markdowns. (Bloomberg, 12.16.25)

• Oil prices fell to their lowest levels since May as traders priced in the potential impact of a Russia‑Ukraine peace deal on an already oversupplied market: Brent briefly dipped to $59.70 a barrel (its lowest intraday level since May 5), while WTI closed at $56.82, amid expectations that a deal could unwind sanctions‑driven shipping distortions and free up “tens to a few hundred million” barrels. (Financial Times, 12.16.25)

Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2025

• The U.S. is preparing a fresh round of sanctions on Russia’s energy sector to increase the pressure on Moscow should President Vladimir Putin reject a peace agreement with Ukraine, according to people familiar with the matter. The U.S. is considering options, such as targeting vessels in Russia’s so-called shadow fleet of tankers used to transport Moscow’s oil, as well as traders who facilitate the transactions, said the people who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations. The new measures could be unveiled as early as this week, some of the people said. (Bloomberg, 12.17.25)
• EU sanctions envoy David O’Sullivan said existing and upcoming measures are “slowly but surely” choking Russia’s oil revenues, with the bloc now set to sanction about 600 tankers—roughly two-thirds of Russia’s shadow fleet—and move to list new vessels weekly or monthly, tighten rules on products refined from Russian crude, and seek faster boarding permissions from flag states, even as enforcement remains a “cat and mouse” game. (RFE/RL, 12.17.25)
• A fleet of tankers laden with Russia’s flagship Urals oil has expanded off China’s east coast after India—the biggest buyer of the grade—curbed purchases following Western sanctions. At least five vessels carrying about 3.4 million barrels were idling in the Yellow Sea as of Wednesday, double the volume of last week and the highest level for the grade in that region in more than five years, according to Kpler. (Bloomberg, 12.17.25)

Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025

• A liquefied natural gas tanker linked to a Chinese company docked at a U.S.-sanctioned Russian export project for the first time, the latest step by Moscow and Beijing to strengthen energy ties and skirt western curbs. The Kunpeng, which earlier this year had its ownership and management transferred to little-known firms in China and the Marshall Islands, docked at Gazprom PJSC’s Portovaya plant in the Baltic Sea, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. (Bloomberg, 12.18.25)
• The UK government imposed sanctions on three smaller Russian oil producers, as a U.S.-brokered peace deal between Moscow and Kyiv remains elusive. Tatneft PJSC, Russneft PJSC and NNK PJSC were sanctioned for “obtaining a benefit from or supporting the government of Russia” by operating in the energy segment, the UK Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation said in a statement Thursday. Tatneft is partly owned by the government of the Russian region of Tatarstan. The NNK chief executive officer is former Rosneft PJSC head Eduard Khudainatov, while Russneft has links to the family of Russian billionaire Mikhail Gutseriev. (Bloomberg, 12.18.25)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• The European Union’s top diplomat poured cold water on the American proposal to reestablish economic ties with Russia as part of ongoing discussions to end Moscow’s war against Ukraine. “Russia is not a rule-of-law country and we’ve seen companies being nationalized, so I say ‘good luck with that’,” Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief, told Bloomberg Television on Thursday. The U.S. has imposed massive sanctions against Moscow since the beginning of the war and is preparing some fresh measures targeting its energy sector to increase pressure in case President Vladimir Putin rejects a peace agreement with Ukraine, Bloomberg reported earlier. (Bloomberg, 12.18.25)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Vladimir Putin told the Russian MoD’s annual board meeting: “… President Trump says that if he had been president at the time, nothing like this [Russian-Ukraine war] would have happened. That may well be true. The previous administration deliberately brought matters to armed conflict. Everyone believed that Russia could be destroyed and dismantled in a short period of time, and European ‘piglets’ eagerly joined this effort in hopes of profiting from the collapse of our country. As has now become obvious, all of these destructive plans against Russia have completely failed.” (Kremlin.ru, 12.17.25)
  • The specific wording of Russian President Vladimir Putin's address to a military meeting on Dec. 17 is telling. His use of the street slang term "podsvinki" seemingly deliberately plays to his domestic audience by suggesting European leaders are submissive to U.S. machinations. The insult's timing is also revealing, coming just as Western leaders voice support for Ukraine resisting Russia's demands as ceasefire terms. (RFE/RL, 12.18.25)
• Russian officials on Thursday warned the Trump administration against making what they called a “fatal mistake” as tensions between the United States and Venezuela escalate, while saying Moscow remains in close contact with authorities in Caracas. “We urge all countries in the region to show restraint in order to avoid any unpredictable development in this situation,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, adding that President Vladimir Putin had recently spoken by phone with Maduro. (MT/AFP, 12.18.25)
• Three films about anti-Kremlin journalists and activists have been shortlisted for the Oscars in what film critics said sent a clear anti-war, anti-authoritarian message. David Borenstein's "Mr. Nobody Against Putin," based on footage smuggled out of Russia, and "My Undesirable Friends: Part 1—Last Air in Moscow," by U.S. filmmaker Julia Loktev, have been shortlisted in the Documentary Feature Film category. (MT/AFP, 12.18.25)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Vladimir Putin said at the live Q&A that Russia’s GDP grew by 1% in 2025 and by 9.7% over three years, which he claimed is “significantly higher” than in Europe, calling slower current growth “the price” for preserving economic quality. He reported real wages up 4.5%, unemployment down to 2.2%, inflation expected at 5.7–5.8% by year’s end, and the budget deficit at 1.5%. (Istories, 12.19.25)
  • European Commission assumptions that Russia’s economy is close to collapse under sanctions are “delusional,” noting that while growth is near zero, inflation at 6.6%, and interest rates at 16.5%, Russia’s 2025 budget deficit is only about 1.9% of GDP and may reach 2.6–3% by year’s end. The author contrasts this with far higher wartime deficits historically in the U.S. and current deficits in France and the U.K. (Istories, 12.19.25)
• Russia faces mounting long-term costs for its invasion of Ukraine as it plugs a widening military budget gap with expensive borrowing. In one of 2025’s final OFZ bond auctions, the government issued 108.9 billion rubles ($1.36 billion), bringing this year’s total to 7.9 trillion rubles—far above the previous 2020 record set during the Covid-19 pandemic. Although the central bank has cut its key rate from a 21% peak to 16.5%, borrowing remains extremely costly for households, businesses and the state. (Bloomberg, 12.18.25)
• President Vladimir Putin warned at his year-end press conference that Russia’s fertility rate has fallen to about 1.4 children per woman and said it must rise to at least 2.0, calling for policies that make “the happiness of motherhood and fatherhood fashionable.” He linked family formation to living standards and touted measures such as family mortgages and reviving the “Mother Heroine” title, as Russia records its lowest births since 1999. (bne IntelliNews, 12.19.25)
• Russia’s lower-house State Duma on Thursday passed a package of bills exempting government officials from filing annual public financial declarations, a move lawmakers said would modernize oversight. (MT/AFP, 12.18.25)
• Russia declared the punk band Pussy Riot an extremist organization on Monday, according to a lawyer for the group, as the Kremlin continues a deepening crackdown on critics of President Vladimir Putin. Moscow’s Tverskoy District Court granted an application by the Prosecutor General’s Office to ban the group as extremist in a closed court hearing, said Leonid Solovyov, the attorney. (Bloomberg, 12.15.25)
• A military court in the city of Yekaterinburg sentenced five self-described Marxists from the neighboring republic of Bashkortostan to lengthy prison terms on terrorism and attempted coup charges, the exiled news outlet Mediazona reported Tuesday. (MT/AFP, 12.16.25)
• Nearly two-thirds of Russians (67%) say things in the country are going in the right direction, while 17% believe Russia is on the wrong path, according to a new Levada Center poll. President Vladimir Putin’s job performance is approved by 85% of respondents and disapproved by 13%, with little change in these ratings in recent months. (Levada Center, 12.19.25)

Defense and aerospace:

• At the Russian Defense Ministry’s annual board meeting, Vladimir Putin vowed that the “objectives of the special military operation will undoubtedly be achieved,” saying that if diplomacy fails Russia will “liberate its historical lands by military means” and expand a security buffer zone. He ordered continued rapid modernization under a new 2027–2036 State Armaments Program, emphasizing robotics, AI-enabled command-and-control and autonomous systems. Putin also called for strengthening Russia’s “orbital constellation” with next-generation satellites to improve secure communications, intelligence, and navigation for the armed forces, according to Kremlin.ru. (12.17.25)
• Russia spent 5.1% of its GDP on the war in 2025, Defense Minister Andrey Belousov told an expanded ministry board meeting, saying overall Defense Ministry spending reached 7.3% of GDP, with non-military expenditures falling to 2.2%. He said the remainder of the budget was directly tied to combat operations and noted that war spending had increased compared to 2024. (Istories, 12.18.25)
• At the Russian Defense Ministry’s annual expanded board meeting, Defense Minister Andrei Belousov said the “nature of warfare has changed significantly” during the Ukraine war, highlighting a sharp rise in unmanned aviation for reconnaissance and strike missions and vowing to complete the formation of dedicated unmanned-systems forces next year so drones operate as integrated elements of larger formations. He added that Ukraine is trying to slow Russia’s advance by creating a “drone line,” noting Kyiv’s use of long-range UAVs has risen from about 1,500 per month early in the year to 3,700 since May, while claiming Russian air defenses are intercepting roughly 97% of these attacks, according to Kremlin.ru. (Kremlin.ru 12.17.25)
• Vladimir Putin said at the live Q&A that more than 400,000 people signed military contracts in 2025, that the number of missing soldiers has halved, and that Russians have donated 83 billion rubles in support of the war. (Istories, 12.19.25)
• Vladimir Putin said during the live Q&A “Results of the Year with Vladimir Putin,” joking about rumors of weapons in space: “I will tell you, but this must remain strictly between us. It is our secret weapon, but we will use it only in the most extreme case, because we are against the deployment of any weapons in space in general.” (Kremlin.ru, 12.19.25)
• Russia is aiming for the damaged Baikonur Cosmodrome launchpad, its only site capable of sending crewed rockets to space, to be operational again by late February as restoration work intensifies. (Bloomberg, 12.16.25)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Russia’s state corporation Rosnano has filed a new lawsuit against former head Anatoly Chubais and other ex‑executives, seeking 11.9 billion rubles in damages over the Crocus project, which was supposed to develop domestic MRAM chip production but allegedly saw investment funds diverted into non‑project companies, including those with foreign participation. (Mediazona, 12.13.25)

• Moscow City Court has registered a state treason case against Anastasia Alexeyeva, a former aide to ex–Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich, with the treason case entered on Dec. 12, 2025; Alexeyeva was previously arrested in February 2020 and in April 2023 was sentenced to 12 years in prison for taking bribes totaling 5.8 million rubles, fined 75 million rubles, banned from holding state and municipal posts for 15 years, and stripped of the Order “For Merit to the Fatherland, II class.” (Meduza, 12.15.25) 

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• President Vladimir Putin said Friday that he would look into the case of French researcher Laurent Vinatier, jailed in Russia for failing to register as a “foreign agent” and facing 20 years on fresh espionage charges. (MT/AFP, 12.19.25)

Ukraine:

• President Vladimir Putin said Russia is prepared to “consider” halting strikes deep inside Ukraine on the day of a Ukrainian presidential election to help ensure security, as long as the vote is held. He added that between 5 million and 10 million Ukrainians living in Russia “must have the right to vote” so that Ukraine’s authorities can become “legitimate.” (Kommersant, 12.19.25)
• A total of 59% of Ukrainians believe President Volodymyr Zelensky is personally responsible for the actions of Timur Mindich, his associate and former business partner, who is at the center of Ukraine's biggest corruption scandal, according to a poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) published on Dec. 18. (Kyiv Independent, 12.18.25)
• … As "Mindich-gate" roils Kyiv, a [key question emerged]: how did a purported money-moving pipeline operate "without triggering a single alarm" inside the banking system? Filip Pronin, head of the State Financial Monitoring Service, told lawmakers that not a single Ukrainian bank submitted a suspicious transaction report tied to individuals now featured in the Energoatom case. Pronin said the agency saw only isolated "threshold" transactions, a description that-if accurate-would leave an obvious mismatch between the alleged scale of laundering and the signals banks are designed to generate. (Business Times Online, 12.18.25)
• Ukraine has pledged to extend the statute of limitations in corruption cases in 2026 and to cancel the automatic closure of criminal cases due to the expiration of pre-trial investigation terms in order to join the European Union. This is stated in the text of the joint statement of European Commissioner for Justice Marta Kos and Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine Taras Kachka, the Ukrainian News agency reports. (Ukrainian News, 12.15.25)
• Dmytro Kovalenko—a shadowy coal trader with a Ukrainian passport and residency in Monaco, without whom the long-standing schemes of exporting Russian coal in circumvention of sanctions simply would not have worked. It was his companies that became the “Swiss smokescreen” for legitimizing the coal of [Russian] oligarch Konstantin Strukov on the markets of the EU and Ukraine. (Antikor.ua, 12.19.25)
• The Head of the National Bank of Ukraine, Andriy Pyshnyi, may face the threat of arrest in the coming days amid the resumption of a criminal case regarding tax evasion by the state-owned Oschadbank in 2017, amounting to 900 million UAH. (Antikor.ua, 12.19.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• The U.S. will remove sanctions on Belarusian potash fertilizers, the key source of foreign-currency revenue for the Russia-aligned nation before Western restrictions stifled their flow. U.S. President Donald Trump ordered the sanctions lifted, effective immediately, the Belarusian state-owned news agency Belta cited his special envoy, John Coale, as saying in Minsk on Saturday. “This is a very good step by the United States for Belarus,” Belta cited Coale as saying following two days of talks in the Belarusian capital. “We are lifting them now.” (Bloomberg, 12.13.25)
• Belarus freed more than 100 political prisoners—including opposition leader Maria Kolesnikova and 2022 Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski—as part of a monthslong thaw with Washington, with the U.S. in return lifting sanctions on Belarusian potash exports while continuing talks with Aleksandr Lukashenko on broader rapprochement and his role as a conduit to Putin over the war in Ukraine. (New York Times, 12.13.25)
• The European Union expanded sanctions against Belarus, just days after the U.S. said it would lift restrictions on exports of potash from the country, underscoring diverging approaches to the close ally of Russia. “If the Belarus regime doesn’t change its behavior, we might be both at different speeds and at different directions with the U.S.,” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys said Monday in Brussels. The new EU sanctions on the regime of President Alexander Lukashenko target individuals seeking to undermine democratic institutions, economies or public infrastructure of the bloc and its member states, according to a statement. (Bloomberg, 12.15.25)
• The Trump administration is pushing to assemble a roughly 10,000-strong multinational force under a U.S. general to stabilize postwar Gaza, but no country has yet committed troops and even the two most likely contributors, Azerbaijan and Indonesia, are insisting on a narrow, non-combat role that avoids directly confronting Hamas, underscoring broad international reluctance to be drawn into disarmament and the enclave’s uncertain political future. (Wall Street Journal, 12.14.25)
• A small nation squeezed between China and Kazakhstan is positioning itself to be central Asia’s new tiger economy as it capitalizes on a boom in re-exports, remittances and tourism to attract vital foreign investment. Kyrgyzstan expects its economy to expand by more than 10% this year after posting real gross domestic product growth of at least 9% annually over the past three years, according to the central bank. (Bloomberg, 12.17.25)
• Tajikistan’s Foreign Ministry summoned Russia’s ambassador in Dushanbe on Wednesday to demand an impartial investigation into the fatal stabbing of a 10-year-old student at a school outside Moscow. The victim, fourth-grader Kobiljon Aliyev, was killed Tuesday morning at Uspenskaya Secondary School in the affluent Moscow region suburb of Gorki-2. Police arrested a 15-year-old student on suspicion of carrying out the attack. In a statement, Tajikistan’s Foreign Ministry condemned the killing and said it believed the attack was motivated by “ethnic hatred.” (MT/AFP, 12.17.25)

IV. Quotable and notable

• Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister and Belfer Center Senior Fellow Dmytro Kuleba wrote in Washington Post “What we are witnessing is indeed the first serious attempt since the full-scale invasion to reach a ceasefire. A ceasefire, of course, is not the end of the war. This war ends only when Putin accepts that Ukraine is lost to Russia—that its future is independent, sovereign and European.” (World Politics, 12.19.25)
• Fiona Hill, a member of Harvard’s Board of Overseers, says Putin's biggest advantage is that many people believe Ukraine is losing. "Everyone talks about Ukraine as the loser, when it now has the most powerful army in Europe. Just think what they have done to Russia. It is remarkable that they have held out for so long, not least by fighting with one hand tied behind their backs," she explained. (BGNES news, 12.15.25)

Endnotes

1. Sources used: MT/AFP, 12.19.25, RFE/RL, 12.19.25, New York Times, 12.19.25, Washington Post, 12.19.25, Istories, 12.19.25, Kremlin.ru, 12.19.25.
2. Sources used: Financial Times, 12.19.25, Financial Times, 12.19.25, The Economist, 12.19.25, New York Times, 12.19.25.
3. Sources used: Washington Post, 12.16.25, Wall Street Journal, 12.16.25, New York Times, 12.16.25, ISW, 12.16.25.
4. Here and elsewhere entries from Kremlin.ru are machine-translated.
5. For an explainer on obstacles towards peace, read this Wall Street Journal article.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo: Vladimir Putin's year-end call-in show,, Dec. 19, 2025. Photo by Kremlin.ru.