4 Things to Know

1. This week saw the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) launch what has become the largest cross-border incursion into Russia by a foreign army since World War II.  Three days after the launch of the incursion on Aug. 6, Ukrainian units were reported by FT to control some 130 square miles of territory in Russia’s western Kursk region. That is only 3 square miles less than what AFU liberated during its counter-offensive operations inside Ukraine from June 1, 2023 to Sept. 1, 2023.^[1] Among other localities in the Kursk region, AFU forces were reported by Russian sources to have captured the settlements of Darino, Sverdlikovo, Gogolevka, Goncharovka, Nikolaevo-Darino. As of Aug. 9 AFU units were also present in the Kursk region’s settlements of  Snagost, Olgovka, and Mirny, as well as in the western suburbs of the town of Sudzha, according to Russian pro-war bloggers. While Ukrainian officials would not go on the record to shed light on the aims of the Aug. 6 offensive, the latter did come after weeks of steady advances by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (AFRF), which have captured more Ukrainian land in 2024 than AFU liberated during its 2023 counter-offensive operations, according to FT.^[2] In addition to trying to force the AFRF to divert forces from their slow but successful offensive in eastern Ukraine, the AFU’s aims could include increasing Ukraine’s leverage vis-à-vis Russia in potential talks and other interactions between Kyiv and Moscow. The offensive, which the AFRF top brass lacked preparedness and/or resources to nip in the bud in spite of warnings by the Russian military intelligence, has also led to the reemergence of questions about the command skills of chief of the General Staff of the AFRF Valery Gerasimov who commands Russian troops fighting in Ukraine.*
2. Russia has started delivering advanced radars and air-defense equipment to Iran as Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu visited Iran for talks with President Masoud Pezeshkian and top officials, Bloomberg and NYT reported. Meanwhile, dozens of Russian military personnel continue to train in Iran to use the Fath-360 close-range ballistic missile system with the imminent delivery of hundreds of the satellite-guided weapons to Russia for its war in Ukraine, according to Reuters. In addition to engaging Teheran directly, Moscow had reportedly planned a transfer of missiles to Iran’s Houthis allies in Yemen, but refrained from doing so following diplomatic pressure, according to ISW. These developments follow Vladimir Putin’s June 5 threats to send arms to countries that could then use them to attack countries that supply arms to Ukraine. 
3. Russia is ready to consider new political agreements with the U.S. in the spheres of arms control and disarmament, Russia’s ambassador to the U.S. Anatoly Antonov told media on August 5. Announcement of this preparedness could have signaled as a change in Russia’s position, which has been to insist that US-Russian arms control talks cannot be compartmentalized, if Antonov had not then added a disclaimer. “If the Americans don’t abandon their hostile position or policy toward the Russian Federation, we can’t engage in what the Americans are offering us,” he said. In his Aug. 5 interview, Antonov—whose tour of duty in the U.S. may end soon—also  touched upon another issue on the bilateral agenda that is of interest to many in Washington. “I believe that terrorism, international terrorism is the main threat to the United States and Russia ... Particularly dangerous is the possibility of weapons of mass destruction or their components falling into the hands of terrorists,” he said, warning that U.S. won’t be able to solve this problem on its own.
4. The year-on-year increase in Russians’ disposable income in the second quarter (April-June) hit an all-time record of 9.6%, according to Rosstat data cited by The Bell. Disposable income was up 8.1% in the first six months of this year compared with the equivalent period in 2023. The Bell attributed this increase to labor shortages in Russia. 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• On Aug. 8 Russian war blogger Kotenok estimated that some Ukrainian forces are 30 km away from the Kursk NPP, calling the situation "alarming." Some have suggested the Ukrainians might target the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant as payback for Russia’s long-running seizure of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. On the same day Russia's National Guard said it had beefed up security around the Kursk NPP. In Kurchatov, where the Kursk NPP is located, the power went out after a drone attack on August 9. (Meduza, 08.09.24. RM, 08.08.24, Bellona, 08.08.24, WP, 08.08.24, RM, 08.08.24)
• The Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act will go into effect on 11 Aug., banning the import into the USA of unirradiated, low-enriched uranium (LEU) that is produced in the Russian Federation or by a Russian entity. However, Centrus Energy has received a waiver from the U.S. Department of Energy allowing it to import low-enriched uranium from Russia for delivery to U.S. customers in 2024 and 2025. (D. Kovchegin’s Russian Nuclear Security Update, 08.06.24)
• The third and final tier of the reactor containment structure has been installed at the construction site of the BREST-OD-300 lead-cooled fast neutron reactor at the Siberian Chemical Combine site in Seversk, in the Tomsk Region of Russia. (WNN, 08.08.24)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Iranian media reported that Iran has requested advanced air-defense systems from Russia. Two Iranian officials familiar with the war planning, one a member of the Revolutionary Guards Corps, confirmed that Iran has made the request and said Russia has started delivering advanced radars and air-defense equipment. Meanwhile Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu visited Iran for talks with President Masoud Pezeshkian and top officials. (Bloomberg, 08.05.24, NYT, 08.06.24)
• Dozens of Russian military personnel are being trained in Iran to use the Fath-360 close-range ballistic missile system, two European intelligence sources told Reuters, adding that they expected the imminent delivery of hundreds of the satellite-guided weapons to Russia for its war in Ukraine. (Reuters, 08.09.24)
• The Kremlin reportedly planned to transfer unspecified missiles and other military equipment to the Houthis in Yemen but did not transfer the materiel following diplomatic pressure. Russia's reported plan highlights its growing military partnership with Iran. (ISW, 08.03.24)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• More than 95% of Ukrainian soldiers captured are tortured in Russia, said the head of the U.N. Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, Danielle Bell, in an interview with the Dutch NOS television and radio company. (Istories, 08.08.24)
• Dmytro Lubinets, Ukraine’s leading human rights official, has appealed to the International Committee of the Red Cross and the United Nations to investigate an image widely shared online on Aug. 3 that he said likely showed a Ukrainian prisoner of war killed and dismembered by Russian forces. (RFE/RL, 08.03.24)
• Sixty-four of the Russian soldiers whose names appeared on prisoner exchange lists published by the Ukrainian authorities in March 2024 had already been reported dead or missing by the Russian authorities, according to iStories (Meduza, 08.06.24)
• The European Union authorized the first regular payment from its close to €50 billion ($55 billion) support package for Ukraine that’s aimed at keeping the beleaguered economy running during Russia’s invasion. Ukraine will receive €4.2 billion, which Kyiv can use to support its public administration and to strengthen financial stability, according to an EU statement on Aug. 6. On Aug. 5, Ukraine also received $3.9 billion in U.S. budget support, which is part of a $61 billion package the Senate approved in April. (Bloomberg, 08.06.24)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• On Aug. 2 Ukrainian forces reportedly struck four Russian S-400 air defense missile launchers, an S-500 air defense system, and the Russian Black Sea Fleet's Rostov-on-Don Kilo-class submarine in occupied Crimea. (ISW, 08.03.24)
• On Aug. 3 Ukrainian drone strikes destroyed an Su-34 bomber aircraft and an ammunition warehouse at the Morozovsk Airfield in Rostov Oblast, according to Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate The Ukrainian military's General Staff also said the attack on the Crimean port also significantly damaged four launchers of the S-400 anti-aircraft Triumf defense system. (Bloomberg, 08.03.24, RFE/RL, 08.03.24, ISW, 08.05.24)
• On Aug. 4 Russia claimed that its armed forces seized the village of Novoselivka Persha in eastern Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 08.04.24)
• On Aug. 6, Ukrainian formations crossed the border and advanced into Russia’s Kursk region in what eventually became what has become the largest cross-border incursion into Russia by a foreign army since World War II.  Russia’s Defense Ministry reported that AFU servicemen, supported by tanks, attacked Russian border guard positions near the settlements of Nikolaevo-Darino and Oleshnya in the Kursk region. Some Russian analysts estimated that as of Aug. 9 the Ukrainian armed forces have taken 100 square miles of territory in the Kursk region, according to WP.  According to FT’s Aug. 9 dispatch, however, AFU captured 135 square miles in the Kursk region. While previous cross-border assaults were carried out by armed groups of Russian exiles backed by Kyiv's army, this offensive directly involved Ukrainian troops, (Meduza, 08.07.24, NYT, 08.07.24, WP, 08.09.24)
  • On Aug. 6, Ukrainian Telegram channels shared a video of Russian soldiers who were reportedly captured by the Ukrainian Armed Forces during fighting along the border. At least six Russian soldiers were captured, including at least two conscripts. (Meduza, 08.07.24)
  • On Aug. 7, the pro-war Russian Telegram channel Rybar reported that Ukrainian troops had occupied the settlements of Nikolaevo-Darino, Darino, and Sverdlikovo in the Kursk region’s Sudzhansky district. According to Rybar, Ukrainian troops captured the Sudzha gas measuring facility, which is located 500 meters from the border and through which Russian gas flows to Europe. (Meduza, 08.07.24)
  • On Aug. 7, the pro-war Russian Telegram channel Two Majors reported that Ukrainian troops were in the Kursk region’s settlement of Darino, Sverdlikovo, Gogolevka, and Goncharovka, and that the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) have taken control of Russian positions in Oleshnya. (Meduza, 08.07.24)
  • On Aug. 7 Ukrainian Telegram channels circulated photos purportedly showing two Russian tanks and a Ka-52 attack helicopter destroyed by the AFU. Meanwhile the Ukrainian OSINT project DeepState, which works closely with the country’s Defense Ministry, shared an image of two tanks that were reportedly destroyed at the entrance to Sudzha. (Meduza, 08.07.24)
  • On Aug. 7 Valery Gerasimov, chief of Russia’s general staff, told Putin that Moscow’s forces had killed nearly a third of the thousand-strong Ukrainian contingent and prevented them for advancing further. On Aug. 7 Russian authorities reported 28 residents had been wounded and at least five killed. Kyiv has not commented on the operation or Russia’s claims about Ukrainian casualties. (FT, 08.07.24)
  • On Aug. 7 the Institute for the Study of War, estimated that Ukrainian forces had so far seized 45 sq km of territory within Kursk region and captured 11 total settlements, including Nikolaevo-Darino, Darino, and Sverdlikovo, and were operating within Lyubimovka. The Russian ministry claimed that around 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers had taken part in the operation and that Kyiv had lost 600 military personnel and 82 armored vehicles—figures that could not be independently verified. (FT, 08.08.24, ISW, 08.07.24)
  • On Aug. 7 President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in that “the more pressure is exerted on Russia—on the aggressor that brought the war to Ukraine, the closer peace will be. Just peace through just force.” He said that Russia brought war to his country and "must feel what it has done. He has not explicitly commented on the incursion, but thanked Ukrainian troops on Friday for “destroying the Russian occupiers, holding the frontline, and ensuring that Ukraine remains on the world map.” (FT, 08.08.24, RFE/RL, 08.08.24, FT, 08.09.24)
  • On Aug. 7 President Vladimir Putin summoned his top defense and security officials to brief him on efforts to repel Ukraine’s assault. As many as 1,000 Ukrainian troops had crossed the border with the goal of seizing part of the Kursk region, army chief Valery Gerasimov told Putin in a televised meeting. (Bloomberg, 08.07.24)
  • On Aug. 7 Matthew Miller, a spokesperson for the U.S. Department of State, said that it had no earlier knowledge of the offensive and would request more details from Kyiv. (FT, 08.08.24)
  • As of Aug. 8 Ukrainian armed forces were present in areas as far as 35 kilometers from the international border with Sumy Oblast, inside Russia. (ISW, 08.08.24)
  • On Aug. 8 Zelenskyy said Ukrainian defenders can surprise and achieve results. He made that observation during the presentation of the Army+ app. (RBC.ua, 08.08.24)
  • On Aug. 8 it was reported Rossiya-24 correspondent Yevgeny Poddubny was hospitalized after a drone struck the vehicle he was riding in during a reporting assignment on Ukraine’s surprise incursion into the Kursk region. (MT/AFP, 08.08.24)
  • On Aug. 8, gas was still flowing through the Russian region of Kursk’s Sudzha, the last operational shipping point for a pipeline that carries Russian natural gas to Europe via Ukraine. (WP, 08.08.24)
  • As of Aug. 9 AFU units were present in the Kurk region’s settlements of Snagost, Olgovka, and Mirny, according to Russian war blogger Kotenok cited by BRIEF. Kotenok also reported in his Telegram channel on Aug. 9 that Russian and Ukrainian units continued to battle for the settlement of Martynovka as well as across the Sudzha district. Russian pro-war Telegram channel Rybar reproted on Aug. 9 that AFU units were present in the western suburb of the town of Sudzha, named Zaoleshenka. (RM, 08.09.24)
  • On August 9, in the first Ukrainian public confirmation of the incursion, a military brigade published a video of its soldiers at the office of Russian state energy group Gazprom at the Sudzha gas measuring station, a crucial transit post for gas supplies to Europe. (FT, 08.09.24)
  • On Aug. 9 Russia's Defense Ministry claimed to have killed 280 Ukrainian troops and destroyed 27 armored vehicles over the past 24 hours in the Kurks region. (WP, 08.09.24)
  • On Aug. 9 Russia declared what it described as a "federal level" emergency in the Kursk region. Residents of Sudzha in Russia's Kursk region were without power and running water following air strikes that began on Aug. 6. (RFE/RL, 08.09.24. RFE/RL, 08.08.24)
  • On Aug. 9 Russian pro-war military bloggers were criticizing Russia’s military leadership after a video circulating online appeared to show a Russian military convoy destroyed by Ukrainian shelling in the Kursk region. (MT/AFP, 08.09.24)
  • On Aug. 9 Russian MoD reported that it deployed additional forces to fight invading Ukrainian troops in the southwestern Kursk region, including Grad multiple rocket launcher combat vehicles, tanks transported on trailers, towed artillery. (MT/AFP, 08.09.24)
    • The lack of a coherent Russian response to the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and the reported rate of Ukrainian advance indicates that Ukrainian forces were able to achieve operational surprise along the border with Russia. (ISW, 08.08.24)
    • Until the wider importance of this incursion emerges, there remains a huge question mark over the strategic goals of Oleksandr Syrskyi, the comparatively new commander of Ukraine’s forces. Splits in his command have simmered into public view recently, with younger subordinates questioning Syrskyi’s willingness to endure significant casualties in frontline battles of attrition, in which Russia’s superior manpower usually prevails. (CNN, 08.08.24)
    • Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia's Kursk and Lipetsk border regions has stunned the Russian military and come as a “slap in the face” to President Vladimir Putin personally, four Russian officials told Politika.Kozlov. “The chief [Putin] was in a poor mood … He probably hasn't been seen like this since our [Russian army] was forced to retreat from Kherson in the fall of 2022,” said an official involved in preparing Kremlin events involving Putin. (MT/AFP, 08.09.24)
    • Russian army chief Valery Gerasimov faces growing criticism after Ukrainian troops mounted their biggest incursion into Russian territory since the Kremlin started its war more than two years ago. Gerasimov and top officials seemingly dismissed intelligence warnings that Ukrainian soldiers were gathering near the border with Russia’s western Kursk region as much as two weeks before they began the assault, and nobody briefed President Vladimir Putin, according to a person close to the Kremlin. (Bloomberg, 08.08.24)
    • A leading member of the Russian parliament, Andrey Gurulyov, who is a former deputy commander for Russia's southern military district, condemned the botched handling of the incursion. Posting on the Telegram messaging platform, Gurulyov called for the military prosecutor to investigate decisions by the military command to transfer defense forces from the Kursk border region ahead of the attack. (WP, 08.09.24)
    • Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh stated during a press briefing on Aug. 8 that Ukraine's operation into Kursk Oblast is consistent with U.S. policy and that the U.S. supports Ukraine's right to defend itself against attacks across the international border. Initial U.S. assessments are that the incursion was a response to Russian cross-border attacks supported from the Kursk region, one U.S. official said. Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh told reporters in Washington on Thursday that Ukraine was “taking action to protect themselves” and that the Biden administration did not see the incursion as escalatory. (FT, 08.09.24, (WSJ, 08.08.24, (ISW, 08.08.24)
    •  "It's not possible for Ukraine to open up a second front," said Nick Reynolds, research fellow for land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute in London. "They need to stabilize the front line in Donbas." (WSJ, 08.08.24)
    • While Ukraine might be trying to divert forces from the east to defend its new offensive in Russia's Kursk region, Russia already has more personnel and maneuverability than Ukraine. Mykhailo Podolyak, a Ukrainian presidential adviser, suggested on the country's national television news broadcast that any military actions on the Russian territory could better Ukraine's position during future negotiations with Russia to end the war. He did not comment on the Kursk incursion specifically. (WP, 08.08.24)
• On Aug. 7 FT reported that over the past week the Russian army advanced within 15km of the garrison city of Pokrovsk and the outskirts of nearby Toretsk. It also captured part of the neighboring town of Niu-York. The Russians are 5km from the main T0504 highway, threatening to cut it off. Russian troops over the weekend occupied parts of Chasiv Yar’s eastern district. Taken together, Russia’s advances have more than reversed the hard-fought gains made by Ukraine’s army last year, according to the Black Bird Group, an open-source military research group based in Finland. To advance Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian miscommunication and bungled battlefield rotations. (FT, 08.07.24)
  • Kirill Budanov, the head of the Ukrainian MoD’s Main Intelligence Directorate believes that the "main pressure" of the Russians should end, "since the offensive has already been delayed." The ongoing offensive actions of the Russian invaders will end in one and a half to two months, he believes. (Korrespondent, 08.07.24)
• On Aug. 7 Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on endorsed bills extending martial law and a general military mobilization for 90 days starting on Aug. 12. (RFE/RL, 08.07.24)
  • Protesters tried to force their way into a military recruitment center in Ukraine to demand the release of four young men who they claimed were illegally detained amid the country's increased mobilization efforts. (RFE/RL, 08.08.24)
• On Aug. 8 Russian MoD claimed its forces had captured settlements of Timofeivka, Novoselovka Pervaya and Veseloe in the Donetsk region, but this could not be confirmed. (RM, 09.09.24)
• On Aug. 9 at least 10 people were killed and 35 wounded in what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said was a Russian strike on a supermarket in Kostyantynivka, a town in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region. (RFE/RL, 08.09.24)
• On Aug. 9 nine people were injured and public transport was halted in Lipetsk, a city of almost 500,000 people about 460 kilometers (286 miles) south of Moscow, Governor Igor Artamonov said on his Telegram channel. Russian air defenses intercepted 75 drones overnight including 19 over Lipetsk region, the Defense Ministry in Moscow said. (Bloomberg, 08.09.24)
• On Aug. 9 Ukraine's military said it hit a Russian airfield in the Lipetsk region in an overnight strike that destroyed ammunition warehouses. The Ukrainian official claimed that up to 700 glide bombs stored in the warehouses were damaged or destroyed. Several dozen fighter jets, including Su-34, Su-35 and MiG-31 aircraft, along with military helicopters, were also at the air base, said the general staff of Ukraine’s army. (MT/AFP, 08.09.24, FT, 08.09.24)
• On Aug. 9 one person was killed and two others were injured in a Ukrainian attack on southwestern Russia’s Belgorod region. (MT/AFP, 08.09.24)
• On Aug. 9, the U.K. Defense Ministry provided an update stating that the focus of Russian operations almost certainly remains in central Donetsk oblast. Recent Russian advances have brought the city of Pokrovsk within approximately 16km from the current frontline. Pokrovsk is a significant logistical hub which supports Ukrainian operations in Donetsk oblast. (U.K. Defense Ministry X account, 08.09.24)
• Russia has also continued to make gains in the contested town of Niu York and its advances in the area are threatening the town of Toretsk. Russia continues to rely on costly infantry-led assaults to make gradual advances into Ukrainian territory
• Media Zone and BBC have confirmed identities of 61, 831 Russian soldiers killed in the war against Ukraine, including more than 2,100 identified in the period of July 19-Aug. 1. (Media Zone/BBC, August 2024).
• A suspected assassination plot against Vladimir Putin by Ukraine was halted after Russia's defense minister called his opposite number at the Pentagon, according to Moscow. Russian intelligence allegedly had discovered a Kyiv covert operation to strike at the Navy Day parade in St Petersburg on July 28. According to deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov calls were then made to Ukraine, stopping a covert operation on the Navy Day parade, which Putin and Belousov later attended without incident. (Mail Online, 08.06.24)
• A Russian military court sentenced Ukrainian citizen Mykola Zabirko on Aug. 8 to 6 1/2 years in a high-security prison for an alleged assassination attempt on Kostyantyn Ivashchenko, Mariupol’s former Russia-installed mayor. (RFE/RL, 08.08.24)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• The first ten (of an eventual 79 F-16s) arrived in Ukraine on the last day of July. By the end of 2024, Ukraine should be flying 20 of the American-made fighter jets. The rest, promised by the so-called F-16 coalition led by Denmark and the Netherlands, will arrive in batches during 2025. (The Economist, 08.04.24)
  • Zelenskyy said that his army had received a first batch of F-16 fighter jets. He was standing in front of two F-16s, and two more flew overhead as he spoke. Mr. Zelenskyy said Ukrainian pilots “have already started using them for our country,” but he did not say whether they had already flown combat missions in Ukraine. Nor did he say how many jets had arrived in the country. (NYT, 08.04.24, Bloomberg, 08.04.24)
• Zelenskyy met with a bipartisan delegation from the U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday, consisting of Donald Norcross, Celeste Meloy and James Panetti. During the meeting, the sides discussed strengthening Ukraine's defense capabilities and the priority needs of the Defense Forces. (Ukrainska Pravda, 08.08.24)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• Washington has warned Turkey that there will be “consequences” if the country does not curtail its exports to Russia of U.S. military-linked hardware that is vital to Moscow’s war machine. Turkey’s exports of high-priority military-linked goods, sent to Russia or to suspected intermediaries for Moscow such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, have boomed since the war began. It registered $85 million in the first six months of this year, well above the $27million in the same period in 2022. (FT, 08.07.24)
• The U.K. accounting regulator has hit EY with a £295,000 penalty after the accounting firm breached a fee cap in relation to its client Evraz, the Russian steel company in which oligarch Roman Abramovich was at the time the largest shareholder. (FT, 08.08.24)
• British Airways has become the latest European airline to scale back flights to China as demand weakens and the cost of avoiding Russian airspace reduces the appeal of the route for carriers. (FT, 08.08.24) 
• Estonia's government said on Aug. 8 that full customs controls have been introduced at the Baltic country's border with Russia, replacing random border checks. (RFE/RL, 08.08.24)
• A Russian government commission led by Finance Minister Anton Siluanov blocked the sale of Anheuser-Busch InBev NV’s stake in a Russian joint venture to its Turkish partner Anadolu Efes AS, according to a newspaper report. (Bloomberg, 08.06.24)
• Russia's space agency Roscosmos said the break in ties with the West following Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has cost it nearly 180 billion rubles ($2.1 billion). (MT/AFP, 08.05.24)
• The video streaming platform of the Russian social media company VK has seen a surge in downloads over the past week as playback speeds on YouTube plummet in an apparent attempt by the authorities to “throttle” the website. “VK Video app downloads rose 4.5 times in the first week of Aug. compared to July’s monthly average, reaching more than 250,000 [downloads] per day,” the state-run news agency TASS quoted the tech company’s press service as saying. (MT/AFP, 08.07.24)
  • The YouTube video-hosting site and app have stopped being accessible across Russia, thousands of Internet users in the country said online on Aug. 8. (RFE/RL, 08.08.24)
  • Signal messenger users across Russia have reported service disruptions, according to the monitoring websites Sboy.rf and Downradar. (Meduza, 08.09.24)
• Hugo Boss has completed the sale of its Russian business, the German luxury fashion brand has announced, the latest Western company to exit Russia over its unprovoked war in Ukraine. The buyer is wholesale company Stockmann, which acquired Boss's Russian operation for an undisclosed amount. (RFE/RL, 08.06.24)
• The Russian Prosecutor-General's Office on Aug. 5 recognized Germany's Konrad Adenauer Foundation as an "undesirable organization." (RFE/RL, 08.05.24)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's chief of staff said in an interview published on Thursday that a second Kyiv-led peace summit should not be treated as the start of negotiations with Russia. Andriy Yermak said the objective of a second summit would be to agree on a peace plan jointly approved by participants which could then be presented to Russia. "It is possible for a Russian representative to attend the second summit to whom this plan could be handed over," he said. "One should not treat the second summit as the beginning of negotiations with Russia."  He said Ukraine wanted matters to proceed quickly, though it was not certain a second gathering could take place in 2024. (Reuters, 08.08.24)
• Polling by the National Democratic Institute and the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology suggests that 57 per cent of Ukrainians want to begin negotiations with Russia to end the war. However, more than 60 per cent of Ukrainians are unwilling to cede territory in exchange for peace. The share of Russians who definitely or rather support continuation of military actions against Ukraine declined from 37% to 34% in June–July, according to Levada Center. The share of those who rather or definitely support launch of peace talks stayed at 58% in that period. In comparison, 48% of Russians supported launch of peace talks in September 2022 while 44% favored continuation of hostilities. The share of Russians who are watching the situation in Ukraine either very or quite attentively declined from 53% in June to 51% in July, according to Levada Center. The share of Russians who support actions of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine or definitely support them declined from 77% in June to 75% in July. (RM, 08.08.24, FT, 08.07.24) So the difference between the shares of Ukrainians and Russian who favor peace talks is 1% (57% of Ukrainians and 58% of Russians), but ask them on what conditions peace should be negotiated and you will find stark differences.
• Western-sanctioned Russian tycoon Oleg Deripaska repeated his calls for a Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire and slammed Moscow’s war spending in an interview with Japanese media published Thursday. "If you want to stop the war, first you need to stop the fire," Deripaska told Japan’s The Nikkei daily, calling for an "immediate, unconditional ceasefire.” (MT/AFP, 08.09.24)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• U.S. European Command Commander Gen. Christopher Cavoli spoke at the National Defense Industrial Association’s 2024 Emerging Technologies for Defense Conference and Exhibition in Washington, DC. Gen. Cavoli remarked that the Russian-Ukrainian war’s immense size and scale required Ukraine and its Western allies to adapt quickly in fighting Russia. He added that there was a warfighting advantage in being able to combine new technology with legacy systems, saying too much modernization wasn’t helpful on the battlefield. (C-Span, 08.08.24)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Russia and China may begin using barter trading schemes, three trade and payments sources told Reuters, with two expecting deals involving agriculture as soon as this autumn, as Moscow and Beijing try to limit using banking systems monitored by the United States. (Reuters, 08.08.24)
• Russia’s two-way trade with China rose to $136.67 billion between January and July, a 1.6% increase compared to last year, Kommersant reported. China has emerged as a major economic lifeline for Russia since the West slapped sanctions on Moscow in response to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Trade between the two countries hit a record high of $240 billion in 2023. Kommersant, citing Chinese customs data, reported that China exported $61.64 billion worth of goods to Russia in the first seven months of 2024—down by 1.1% compared to the same period last year. Imports, meanwhile, reached $75.03 billion—up by 3.9%. (MT/AFP, 08.07.24)
• Delegations of the Foreign Ministries of Russia and China held consultations in Moscow on peaceful space using issues. (Interfax, 08.08.24)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• Deputy Director of the Department for Non-Proliferation and Arms Control of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia Mikhail Kondratenkov said: “One should have in mind that our strategic nuclear forces have already become target of Ukrainian attacks, and we are confident that Kiev, which absolutely lacks legal personality, could not make this decision on its own. NATO obviously had a hand in this. An aggressive, bloodthirsty, illegitimate nuclear military bloc, NATO has put the world on the brink of a global nuclear war with the only purpose of checking Russia's reaction to its aggressive behavior. Such steps on the part of NATO should receive proper assessment and response of all countries interested in ensuring their security.” (RF MFA, 07.31.24)
• Russia is ready to consider new political agreements with the U.S. in the area of arms control and disarmament, Russian Ambassador to Washington Anatoly Antonov said.. “Today they are thinking about politically binding agreements for after 2026, or after the expiration of the New START," Antonov said. "We are interested in any agreements with the United States of America being legally binding… given the lack of trust between our two countries, of course, legally binding agreements are in our interests," the diplomat said. He also said that until the U.S. rejects its hostile policy toward Russia, there can be no new arms control agreements. "If the Americans don’t abandon their hostile position or policy toward the Russian Federation, we can’t engage in what the Americans are offering us," the ambassador stated. (TASS, 08.05.24) Antonov essentially repeats Kremlin’s talking point that progress in concrete spheres of the bilateral relationship, such as arms control, cannot be attained through compartmentalization:
• The nuclear potential of Russia and China serves as a deterrence factor, while Russia's new high-tech weapons give an advantage over the United States, State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin said. "So, whenever Washington and Brussels endanger Russia's security by supplying planes and missiles and coordinating military operations in Ukraine, the parliaments and citizens of the United States and the European Union need to realize that their actions [...] may bring tragic consequences to the world," Volodin warned (Interfax, 08.06.24)

Counterterrorism:

• "I believe that terrorism, international terrorism is the main threat to the United States and Russia....Particularly dangerous is the possibility of weapons of mass destruction or their components falling into the hands of terrorists. You don't have to be an expert to [understand this]. For example, take biological weapons. If a small vial of some kind falls into the hands of terrorists, Washington, New York, Chicago, Seattle, everybody will be in big trouble. The same applies to Moscow, Paris, and London,” Russia’s ambassador to U.S. Anatoly Antonov said.^[3](TASS, 08.05.24)s
• Russian law enforcement officials said Aug. 5 that they arrested two “religious figures” in the Tyumen region who are suspected of recruiting people for terrorist organizations based in Syria. The Federal Security Service (FSB) said its agents “disrupted an international terrorist organization’s resource channel” in cooperation with police and investigators. The two arrested men recruited 19 people for “terrorist activities” in Syria from February 2015 to November 2022, according to Russia’s Investigative Committee, which probes major crimes. (MT/AFP, 08.05.24)
• The U.S. military turned over control of its last base in Niger to local forces on Aug. 5, ending a yearslong counterterrorism mission in the West African country even as violent extremism remains on the rise in the region. As part of the final negotiations with the Pentagon, Nigerien officials assured the Americans that the Russians would not be allowed to use the prized air bases or American gear left behind. (NYT, 08.05.24)
• Russia is tightening pre-departure standards for Tajik migrants hoping to work in Russia, likely as part of ongoing Russian efforts to address security threats from the Islamic State's Afghan branch IS-Khorasan (IS-K) following the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack in March 2024. The Tajik Ministry of Labor reported on Aug. 5 that it jointly launched a Russian passport and visa service representative office in Dushanbe with the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) in May 2024. (ISW, 08.05.24)
  • Tajik Labor, Migration, and Employment Minister Gulnora Hasanzoda said on Aug. 6 that Russia had deported more than 17,000 Tajik citizens in the first six months of 2024. (RFE/RL, 08.06.24)

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• On the battlefields of Ukraine, the future of war is quickly becoming its present, but America is not ready to engage in warfare transformed by new technologies, according to Mark Milley and Eric Schmidt. “Future wars will no longer be about who can mass the most people or field the best jets, ships, and tanks. Instead, they will be dominated by increasingly autonomous weapons systems and powerful algorithms,” the former U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the former CEO of Google argue in FA. “China and Russia are swiftly gaining ground” in the sphere of AI, the authors warn, and “in the worst-case scenario, AI warfare could even endanger humanity.” (RM, 08.05.24)
• The prisoner swap last week that brought Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich home didn't free a pair of well-known Russian cybercriminals in U.S. prisons long rumored to be part of the negotiations between Washington and Moscow. Their names are Alexander Vinnik and Vladimir Dunaev. (WSJ, 08.07.24)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Russia made further cuts to its oil production in July, edging closer to its OPEC+ target as the group focuses on adherence to its supply deal. The nation produced 9.045 million barrels a day of crude last month, said people familiar with data from the Energy Ministry, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the figures aren’t public. That’s down 33,000 barrels a day from June and about 67,000 barrels a day above Moscow’s output target in the agreement with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies. (Bloomberg, 08.07.24)
• At least five Western insurers continue to provide coverage to tankers carrying Russian crude oil despite concerns they may be violating G7 price caps. (MT/AFP, 08.08.24)
• The U.S. last year added Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 to its sanctions list in response to Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But satellite imagery shows a vessel roughly 280 meters long—about the length of a typical LNG carrier—docked at the Arctic LNG 2 on Aug. 1. The image also shows flaring at the facility, pointing towards a renewed activity at the site. “The vessel is an LNG carrier, and the flaring indicates a restarting of activities” at Arctic LNG 2, said Mehdy Touil, an LNG lead specialist at Calypso Commodities, a software company specializing in the LNG industry. While the identity of the vessel was unclear from the satellite imagery, the ship in the photograph is the same length as the Pioneer, a Palau-flagged LNG tanker, which was bought by its current owner in April. The Pioneer is part of Russia’s suspected dark fleet of LNG carriers. (FT, 08.05.24)
• European natural prices rallied for a third day, settling at the highest level since December on fears of possible disruptions to Russian fuel crossing Ukraine. Benchmark futures closed at 4.3% higher at €40.10 a megawatt-hour, following fighting in Russia’s Kursk region, home to a key gas intake point. (Bloomberg, 08.08.24)
• Uniper SE’s future payments to the German government rose to about €3.4 billion ($3.7 billion) after the nationalized utility was able to offset canceled payment obligations to Russia’s Gazprom PJSC against damages it is owed. (Bloomberg, 08.08.24)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• "There is an academic opinion that great powers can interact and conduct a dialogue only in two cases. First, when one of the nuclear powers or one of the great powers gives in. This is what the Americans are after. They very much like the situation of the 90s, when we had no responsible independent foreign policy... The other situation where interaction is possible is a confrontation with a common enemy. Misfortunes and calamities very often create opportunities for this,” Russia’s ambassador to U.S. Anatoly Antonov said. (TASS, 08.05.24)
• The issue of prisoner swaps between Russia and the U.S. remains open, but it is unclear whether any more deals will get done during U.S. President Joe Biden’s remaining term in office, Russia’s ambassador to U.S. Anatoly Antonov said. "We have not closed the book on the matter. Work on releasing Russians from American jails continues. I can say unequivocally that, given the instructions, aspirations and intentions of our president, it is simply not possible to state the opposite," the diplomat stressed. (TASS, 08.05.24)
• Russian prosecutors on Aug. 8 asked for a 15-year prison sentence for Ksenia Karelina, a dual U.S.-Russian citizen who has been held in Russia since January. Karelina, 33, pleaded guilty to a charge of treason. Karelina was detained by Russia's Federal Security Service in January in Yekaterinburg, where she had traveled to meet relatives. A resident of Los Angeles and U.S. citizen since 2021, Karelina was initially charged with hooliganism, reportedly for cursing at police officers. Security agents, however, searched her phone and said they discovered that prior to traveling to Russia she had made a $51 donation to a U.S-based organization that provides aid and assistance to Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 08.08.24)
• Bloomberg News has apologized for publishing a story last Thursday morning that it now says could have imperiled the negotiated prisoner swap that freed several prisoners from Russian custody, and has also disciplined several individuals involved in the matter. At least one individual—senior White House reporter Jennifer Jacobs, who was the lead author on the story—is no longer with the company. (WP, 08.06.24)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• The pace of Russia's economic growth slowed in the second quarter of 2024, official data showed Friday, amid concerns over stubborn inflation and warnings of "overheating." Gross domestic product (GDP) dipped from 5.4% in the first quarter to 4% from April to June, the lowest quarterly result since the start of 2023 but still a sign the economy is expanding. Inflation meanwhile showed no signs of easing, with consumer prices rising 9.13% year-on-year in July — up from 8.59% in June. (MT/AFP, 08.09.24)
• The year-on-year increase in disposable income in the second quarter (April-June) hit an all-time record of 9.6%, according to Rosstat. Disposable income was up 8.1% in the first six months of this year compared with the equivalent period in 2023. This is due to a labor shortage driving wages higher and higher. (The Bell, 08.02.24)
• Retail trade in Russia is slowing, according to Rosstat. In June, year-on-year growth was 6.3%. That’s the lowest rate since spring 2023. This could bring down inflation. (The Bell, 08.02.24)
• Putin on Aug. 8 signed into law a bill allowing any foreign entity, including those established by state organs of third countries, to be declared "undesirable." (RFE/RL, 08.08.24)
• Russian classical pianist and anti-war activist Pavel Kushnir has died in pretrial custody in the city of Birobidzhan, the capital of Russia’s Jewish Autonomous Oblast, at the age of 39, friends and supporters reported. Kushnir died on July 27 of the consequences of a dry hunger strike that he launched to protest Moscow's war against Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 08.03.24)
• A Moscow court on Aug. 6 sentenced in absentia Russian journalist Dmitry Kolezev to 7 1/2 years in prison on a charge of "distributing false information about the Russian military motivated by political hatred." The charge stems from Kolezev's 2022 online articles about atrocities allegedly committed by occupying Russian armed forces against civilians in Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 08.06.24)
• Russia' Interior Ministry on Aug. 5 added Kremlin critic and political analyst Fyodor Krasheninnikov to its wanted list on unspecified charges. (RFE/RL, 08.05.24)
• The dissident Ilya Yashin calls his release in a prisoner swap last week an “illegal expulsion” by Russia that damages his ability to be heard at home. Yashin addressed 1.6 million subscribers on YouTube upon exchange. ''I need to understand how to exercise this freedom,'' he said. ''I've never lived in exile. I didn't want to live abroad. I never thought about it.'' (NYT, 08.06.24, WP, 08.04.24)
• Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny, says her late husband should have been among those released from Russian jails and prisons last week in a major prisoner swap between Moscow and the West. (RFE/RL, 08.08.24)
  • The Moscow City Court on Aug. 7 upheld a lower court's decision last month to issue an arrest warrant for Yulia Navalnaya on a charge of taking part in an extremist group’s activities. (RFE/RL, 08.07.24)
• A Moscow court on Aug. 7 sentenced blogger Andrei Kurshin to 6 1/2 years in prison over two online posts he made condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 08.07.24)
• Russia's sustained assault on domestic civic freedoms has seen a massive escalation since the start of Moscow's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, with hundreds of dissenters, journalists and political activists being prosecuted and imprisoned under new draconian laws, Human Rights Watch (HRW) said in a report published Aug. 7. (RFE/RL, 08.07.24)
• Russian soldiers who have fought in Ukraine have become a powerful new social class in Russian society. They get state subsidies, extra welfare payments, career boosts and, for some, a fast track to power. (Bell, 08.02.24)
• A poll conducted by the Levada Center in Russia on July 25 to July 31, 2024, revealed that respondents who confess to being barely able to afford food have said they recently strongly feel: hope (30%), pride for their people (27%) and fatigue and indifference (15%). (RM, 08.06.24) See the table below for more.

Defense and aerospace:

• The production of some key military-linked goods in Russia rose more than 30% in the first half of this year, according to a recent report by Rosstat. The production of finished metal items (excluding cars and equipment) was up 36% in the first six months of 2024, with year-on-year growth hitting 30.9% in June alone. The production of other military items also rose sharply in the first six months of the year: motor vehicle manufacture was up 27.4%, and optics and computers climbed 35%. (The Bell, 08.02.24)
• A Russian insider source who has previously correctly predicted several command changes within the Russian Defense Ministry (MoD) claimed on Aug. 5 that the Head of the Russian MoD's Main Armored Directorate, Lt. Gen. Alexander Shestakov, will leave his position in the near future. (ISW, 08.05.24)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Russian authorities detained the head of the Russian Defense Ministry's Patriot Park, Vyacheslav Akhmedov, and Deputy Head of the Russian MoD's Directorate for Innovative Development Maj. Gen. Vladimir Shesterov on suspicion of large-scale fraud as of Aug. 5.  Russian law enforcement suspect Akhmedov and Shesterov of embezzling over 40 million rubles (roughly $471,000) during public procurement for the park. Patriot Park was reportedly the personal project of Sergei Shoigu, and recently detained former Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov reportedly oversaw construction of the park. (ISW, 08.05.24)
• Russia's Investigative Committee said on Aug. 6 that another former Defense Ministry official has been arrested on corruption charges amid an ongoing crackdown on defense officials. Vladimir Demchik, former chief of the ministry's property department, is suspected of accepting 4 million rubles ($46,900) as a bribe to secure ministry contracts with a private business in 2017. (RFE/RL, 08.06.24)
• Irek Magasumov, a participant in the war in Ukraine, who was found guilty of murdering an 18-year-old girl in Luhansk in June 2024, has returned to the front. (Meduza, 08.05.24)

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including  relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Two men have been charged in connection with an alleged arson attack on Ukrainian-linked businesses in London on behalf of the Wagner Group. Jakeem Barrington Rose, 22, and Ugnius Asmena, 19, are accused of offences under the National Security Act. (Bloomberg, 08.03.24)
• A court in Estonia on Aug. 6 held a preliminary hearing in the high treason case against journalist Svetlana Burceva, who used to work for the Sputnik and Baltnews news agencies that belong to the Kremlin-controlled Russia Today media holding. (RFE/RL, 08.07.24)
• Poland arrested a former ally of Navalny and exiled Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky on charges of threatening public safety, Polish media reported Aug. 7, citing local authorities. Igor Rogov, 29, faces up to 10 years in prison if found guilty of endangering public safety with the use of an explosive and up to eight years in prison if convicted of “creating an immediate threat” of public endangerment. (MT/AFP, 08.08.24)
• Russians made 12,668 million international trips, including 4,925 million tourist trips, in H1 2024, up 20% year-on-year, the Russian Federal Security Service's Border Service said in a statistical report. (Interfax, 08.05.24)
• The number of visits by foreign tourists to Russia increased by more than 40% to two million in the first half of 2024, and tourist flow from Saudi Arabia showed explosive growth, Russian Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said. (Interfax, 08.07.24)

Ukraine:

• Mali’s military leadership broke off diplomatic ties with Ukraine over its alleged support of a Malian Tuareg rebel coalition. The decision came after a Ukraine military intelligence agency spokesman said in a video that the country had provided information to Tuareg rebels in northern Mali, fighting Malian armed forces, during a battle last month, the government said in a statement on Aug. 4. (Bloomberg, 08.04.24)
  • Ukraine’s top diplomat denied that his country had lent support to Malian separatist rebels who killed scores of government troops and Wagner Group mercenaries in clashes last month. “We never acted against the regular army of any country except Russia,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told reporters. (Bloomberg, 08.08.24)
  • Russia's Foreign Ministry spokeswoman on Aug. 7 accused Ukraine of opening a "second front" in Africa after Mali and Niger broke off diplomatic relations with Kyiv. (MT/AFP, 08.07.24)
• Niger's ruling military junta has announced it is breaking off diplomatic relations with Ukraine, becoming the second African state to sever ties with Kyiv following comments by a Ukrainian official perceived as lending support to rebels in neighboring Mali. (RFE/RL, 08.07.24)
• Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has rejected a request from Ukraine to arrest Putin if he attends the Oct. 1 inauguration of President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum. (RFE/RL, 08.08.24)
• Japan on Aug. 5 signed a memorandum with Ukraine to support its efforts to fight corruption and seek judicial reform, marking the first visit by the Asian country's justice minister to Kyiv. (Kyodo News, 08.05.24)
• Ukrainian companies have already lost on average 10-20 % of their workforces to conscription or emigration since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. (FT, 08.04.24)
• Penny Pritzker, who is leaving her position as special representative for Ukraine’s economic recovery, said the country had made progress but still faced major hurdles. Ukraine has “made a lot of progress” on battling corruption, “but there’s work to do” before its economy can achieve its full potential, Pritzker said Aug. 5. (NYT, 08.06.24)
• Kellyanne Conway, who served as a top aide to Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign and his presidency, indicated in a Justice Department filing that she will be paid $50,000 a month by an oligarch to seek support for Ukraine. Conway, registered on Aug. 2 to represent Victor Pinchuk, a Ukrainian oligarch who has positioned himself as a leading supporter of his country’s defense against Russian aggression. (NYT, 08.06.24)
• On Aug. 6, 2024, the High Council of Justice (HCJ) decided to dismiss two judges. Among those dismissed were Oleksiy Tandyr, a judge of the Makarovsky District Court of the Kyiv Region, and Vsevolod Knyazev, a judge of the Cassation Administrative Court as part of the Supreme Court. In 2023, Tandyr ran down a soldier while intoxicated. In May 2023, Knyazev was caught accepting a bribe of $2.7 million. (RBC.ua, 08.06.24)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• The United States and Britain unveiled new sanctions against Belarus on August 9 to mark the fourth anniversary of the country's disputed presidential election that returned authoritarian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka to power. The U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on 19 people and 14 companies involved in supporting Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine by producing resources used by the military, shipping goods to Russia (RFE/RL, 08.09.24)
• While Belarus played a role in the sweeping prisoner exchange last week, none of the 1,400 people classified as political prisoners in the country by a human rights group were freed. (NYT, 08.07.24)
• The Russian Foreign Ministry said on Aug. 6 it summoned Moldova's charges d'affaires and informed him that an employee of the Moldovan Embassy in Moscow had been declared persona non grata in response to a similar move by Moldova last week. (RFE/RL, 08.06.24)
• Russian-backed Abkhazian Foreign Minister Sergei Shamba told Kremlin newswire TASS on Aug. 8 that there are no plans to construct a Russian naval base at the Ochamchire port in Russian-controlled Abkhazia, Georgia. (ISW, 08.08.24)
• The United States, the European Union and other Western states have reiterated their support for Georgia's sovereign and territorial integrity as the country marks the 16th anniversary of a brief war with Russia even as its ruling party appears to be turning back toward Moscow. (RFE/RL, 08.07.24)

IV. Quotable and notable

• No significant developments.

V. Tables

Footnotes

1. If FT’s estimates are correct, than AFU captured only three square miles less in August 6-9, 2024 in Russia’s Kursk region, then it did during its counter-offensive operations from June 1, 2023 to September 1, 2023 inside Ukraine.
2. FT estimated that Russian forces seized about 229 square miles from May 3, 2024 to August 2, 2024 while Kyiv’s forces liberated roughly 128 sq m from June 1, 2023 to September 1 2023. WP estimated that Ukraine liberated 199 square miles during the entire counter-offensive of 2023, which lasted from June of that year to December of that year. 
3. BTW, as recently as in April 2024, Amb. Antonov had the following to say when reproaching the U.S. for not discouraging Ukrainians from alleged drone attacks on the Zaporizhzhia NPP: “Even nuclear terrorism is perceived in Washington as a blessing if it is directed against the Russian Federation… Encouraging Zelenskyy's criminal regime is akin to walking on a knife edge. Kyiv's irresponsible forays threaten a radiation catastrophe. Such actions undermine global security.”

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 11:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo: AP Photo/Alexei Smirnov