4 Things to Know

1. In the week of April 22–29, Russia gained 14 square miles (the equivalent of just over half of Manhattan island)—a major slow-down as compared to the previous week’s 40 square miles gained, according to the April 30, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. As for Ukrainian forces, they controlled only 3 square miles of Russia’s Kursk region as of April 28, according to ISW’s data, compared to 482 square miles they claimed to have captured last August. Moreover, chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov claimed in his report to Vladimir Putin earlier this week that Russian forces had completed pushing the Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region¹ even though Ukrainian officials denied this claim.
2. Inferring lessons from the Russian-Ukrainian war, the U.S. Army is “embarking on its largest overhaul since the end of the Cold War, with plans to equip each of its combat divisions with around 1,000 drones and to shed outmoded weapons and other equipment,” according to Wall Street Journal’s April 30 report. One day after that disclosure by Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg reported that Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth wants the U.S. Army to increase its use of drones as part of a broad overhaul of the military’s largest service.
3. Confusion continued to reign this week with regard to whether Russia and Ukraine can be brought together to agree on a durable ceasefire,² to say nothing of a full-fledged peace deal, as the U.S. signaled a possible end to its mediation. On April 25, Trump wrote after Putin had hosted his envoy Steve Witkoff for talks that "they are very close to a deal, and the two sides should now meet, at very high levels, to 'finish it off.’” On April 26, however, Trump appeared to have changed his tack, writing that maybe Putin “doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along.” To hear Trump’s deputy, JD Vance, tell Fox TV on May 1, there is a "very large gap" between the positions of Ukraine and Russia regarding the end of the war. Marco Rubio—who on May 9 may become the first U.S. government minister to pay a public visit Moscow in years—concurred with Vance’s assessment, acknowledging in an interview on the same day that “they're still far apart.” It also remained unclear in what capacity the U.S. may continue to pursue peace. On May 1, the State Department’s Tammy Bruce told reporters that the U.S. “will not be the mediators” going forward.
4. On April 30, the Trump administration finally secured an agreement with Ukraine, giving the U.S. preferential access to the country’s contested natural resources—such as aluminum, graphite, oil and natural gas.³ The agreement establishes the "United States-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund” that Washington and Kyiv will pay into to fund development, infrastructure and natural resource extraction projects in Ukraine, according to ISW. The text of the agreement made no mention of the security guarantees that Kyiv had long sought, though part of the fund’s income will go to reimbursing the U.S. for future military assistance to Ukraine,⁴ according to Bloomberg. Neither does the deal cover Ukraine’s nuclear power producer Energoatom, which will remain in Ukrainian state ownership, Bloomberg reported.⁵ Accessing Ukraine’s minerals won’t be easy, according to experts interviewed by the U.S. press. For one, maps showing trillions of dollars of mineral deposits scattered across Ukraine are based largely on outdated studies, and proper surveys could take several years to complete, according to experts interviewed by Wall Street Journal and New York Times. Also, somewhere between 20% and 40% of Ukraine’s deposits are critical minerals located in areas of the country currently under Russian occupation, George Ingall of Benchmark Minerals Intelligence told Wall Street Journal.  

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Russia hasn’t received a U.S. proposal to give up control of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant in southeast Ukraine, and a change to the facility’s ownership isn’t conceivable, said Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Meanwhile, Rosatom Director General Alexey Likhachev has stated that Russia is prepared to discuss the presence of the United States at this NPP as part of peace negotiations. His statement was quoted by the Russian state news agency Interfax. (Censor.net, 04.30.25, Bloomberg, 04.27.25, Istories, 05.01.25).
• The Trump administration finally struck an agreement with Ukraine that grants the U.S. privileged access to the embattled country’s natural resources, but government assets, including oil company Ukrnafta and nuclear power producer Energoatom, would remain in Ukrainian state ownership. (Bloomberg, 05.01.25) See Section “Ukraine” for details of the agreement.
• Rosatom secured a license to install the BN-1200M fast-neutron reactor at Beloyarsk Nuclear Power Plant, advancing its two-component energy strategy with a closed nuclear fuel cycle. (Rosatom, 04.28.25)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• When briefing Vladimir Putin on April 26, Valery Gerasimov praised the North Korean troops for their bravery displayed during Russian efforts to push Ukrainian forces out the Kursk region. The North Koreans fought “shoulder to shoulder” with the Russian troops, displaying “heroism,” he said. “We will never forget our friends,” Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova wrote on social media in praise of Pyongyang’s contribution to the war. Moscow had not previously officially acknowledged their presence. (Financial Times, RM, 04.26.26)
• On April 28 Putin thanked North Korean leader Kim Jong Un for sending troops to help Russia reclaim the Kursk region. "The Korean friends acted, guided by sentiments of solidarity, justice and real camaraderie," the Kremlin quoted Putin as saying. "We appreciate it greatly and are deeply thankful to Comrade Kim Jong Un personally… and to the North Korean people." (MT/AFP, 04.28.25)
• On April 28 North Korea acknowledged for the first time that it deployed troops to support Russia’s war on Ukraine. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un decided to participate in the conflict to liberate the Kursk region and to repel the “adventurous invasion” of Russia by the Ukrainian army in an operation that has been “victoriously concluded,” the official Korean Central News Agency said. (Bloomberg, 04.28.25)
• On April 28 Russia’s Defense Ministry on Monday released a video showing North Korean soldiers undergoing combat training in Russia. The video, shared by state media, shows Russian instructors teaching the North Korean soldiers how to handle Kalashnikov assault rifles, grenade launchers and shotguns for use against drones. The footage also shows hand grenade training and combat techniques in open areas and trenches. (MT/AFP, 04.28.25)
• Around 600 North Korean soldiers have been killed while fighting alongside Russian forces against Ukraine, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing South Korean lawmakers briefed by the country’s intelligence agency. (Meduza, 04.30.25)
• On April 30, Russia and North Korea marked the start of construction of the first highway bridge connecting the two nations. In a teleconference with North Korean Cabinet Premier Pak Thae Song, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin called the bridge “truly a landmark moment for Russian–Korean relations.” The bridge, slated for completion in a year and a half, will span the Tuman River in Primorsky Krai, totaling almost 5 kilometers (about 3 miles) with access roads included. (Meduza, 04.30.25)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• No significant developments.

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:⁶

• Since the talks began in February, Russian missile and drone strikes and fighting along the front line have killed far more civilians than over the same period a year ago, U.N. officials said in a presentation for diplomats in New York this week. In the first 24 days of April, for example, 848 civilians were killed or wounded, a 46% increase over the same period last year, the U.N. said. (NYT, 05.02.25)
• On April 29 at a UN Security Council meeting, U.S. diplomat John Kelley blamed Russia for the continuing bloodshed in Ukraine, saying it had "regrettably" carried out high-profile strikes "causing needless loss of life, including of innocent civilians." (RFE/RL, 04.30.25)
• In Russia and the occupied territories of Ukraine, there are at least 29 official facilities of Russia’s federal corrections service where abducted Ukrainian civilians and prisoners of war are systematically tortured, according to Istories. (Istories, 04.29.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the past week, Russia gained 14 square miles (the equivalent of just over half of Manhattan island)—a major slow-down as compared to the previous week’s 40 square miles gained, according to the 04.29.25 issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report .As for Ukrainian forces, as of April 29, they controlled only 3 square miles of Russia’s Kursk region compared to 482 square miles they claimed to have captured last August. Meanwhile, Russian forces dedicated to reclaiming that region have advanced into Ukraine, according to the card. (RM, 05.02.25)
  • In the past 30 days, Russian forces made a gain of 199 sq km (76.83 mi²), according to a 05.02.25 estimate by The Economist. (RM, 05.02.25)
  • As of 05.01.25 Russian forces occupied 112,674 square km (43,503.6 mi²), which constituted 18.7% of the Ukrainian territory and which is roughly equivalent to the state of Virginia, according to Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group’s map. (RM, 05.02.25)
  • After seizing hundreds of square miles a month during last fall's offensive, Russian forces took less than 38 square miles during the first two weeks of April, according to the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, their slowest rate of advance since beginning the offensive last summer. (Wall Street Journal, 04.28.25)
  • The Russian offensive peaked in November with the capture that month of 279 square miles of Ukrainian territory, according to DeepState, an analytical group with ties to the Ukrainian military. In March, Russia captured just 51 square miles, the group's analysis showed. Russia's main gain over the winter was expelling Ukraine from all, or almost all, of the Kursk region inside Russia. (The New York Times, 04.289.25)
• The Russian spring offensive is under way, Ukrainian military commanders say, as changing weather is hardening ground and increasing foliage. The question is whether Ukraine can continue to hold the line through the summer, when fighting usually intensifies. Russia has sought to portray further advances as inevitable, suggesting that the U.S. should try to get Kyiv to capitulate rather than continue to resist. So far, the new spring assaults have yielded little territory and heavy Russian casualties, according to analysts and Ukrainian officials. But conditions will likely grow more difficult for Kyiv as the weather gets warmer. (Wall Street Journal, 04.28.25)
• 2024 has been the year with the heaviest losses for Russian forces in the entire war in Ukraine: at least 45,287 people have been killed. This is almost three times more than in the first year of the invasion and significantly exceeds the losses in 2023, when the battle for Bakhmut was underway. Last year, every kilometer of captured territory cost Russia at least 27 lives. (BBC, 05.02.25)
• The report, released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute on April 28, says Ukraine's military expenditure in 2024 was $64.7 billion, some 34% of GDP. SIPRI said Russia's spending was about 7% of GDP and rose year-on-year by 38%, compared to a Ukrainian increase of just 2.9%. (RFE/RL, 04.28.25)

Saturday, April 26, 2025

• The Russian army has fully liberated the border Kursk region from Ukrainian control, Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov told Putin. "Today, the last settlement in the Kursk region, the village of Gornal, has been liberated from Ukrainian forces," Gerasimov said during a video conference meeting with Putin. In response Putin told Gerasimov that “The complete defeat of the enemy in the Kursk border area creates conditions for further successful actions by our troops in other important sectors of the front, bringing the defeat” of the Ukrainian armed forces. (Financial Times, RM, 04.26.26, MT/AFP, 04.26.25, Financial Times, 04.26.26)
  • Ukrainian General Staff denied that its forces had withdrawn fully from the Kursk region. Also, a senior Ukrainian official told the Financial Times that Kyiv’s forces still held ground in the Kursk region, although the amount of territory it controlled had fallen to about 30 sq km from the roughly 1,300 sq km it captured in August. (The New York Times, 04.26.26, Financial Times, 04.26.26)
  • On April 26 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in the Kursk region. (RM, 05.02.25)
• Ukraine’s recruitment drive for 18–24-year-olds, offering $24,000 bonuses and high salaries, enlisted fewer than 500 volunteers in two months. Officials acknowledged disappointing results, with 1,500 applicants pending contracts. (Meduza, 04.26.25)

Sunday, April 27, 2025

• On April 27 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Nadiivka. (RM, 05.02.25)
• "Our military continues to actively defend the designated areas of the Kursk and Belgorod regions," Zelensky said on Telegram, adding that the situation remained difficult in many areas, including Kursk. (MT/AFP, 04.27.25)

Monday, April 28, 2025

• One man was killed and a woman injured in an overnight Ukrainian drone strike in western Russia’s Bryansk region, local authorities said Monday. (MT/AFP, 04.28.25)
• The expanded drone program, in the works since last fall but formally announced in February, is Kyiv's Plan B if talks to end the war fail. The Ukrainian program will fill out four drone battalions to become drone regiments, expanding each from about 700 soldiers to 2,500 soldiers armed with first-person-view drones, others that drop bombs, and unmanned ground systems. (The New York Times, 04.28.25)
  • A non-commissioned officer in a Ukrainian unmanned systems battalion said that in 2024 contested gray zones were roughly 500 meters to two kilometers in depth, but more intense drone usage since then has expanded the gray zone up to five to seven kilometers in some areas of the frontline. Ukraine maintains over 100 brigades that must defend a frontline currently over 2,100 kilometers long and significantly leverages drone capabilities, in tandem with traditional capabilities. (ISW, 04.27.25)
  • Ukraine has adapted strategies and weapons during its fight against Russia. It is now banking on expanding the use of domestically produced drones, even though American arms remain crucial. (The New York Times, 04.28.25)
• Russian prosecutors have charged a man in connection with a Moscow suburb car bombing that killed a Russian general, alleging he had been paid by Ukrainian intelligence services. The Investigative Committee on April 27 said Ignat Kuzin faced terrorism charges for the killing of Lieutenant General Yaroslav Moskalik. Moskalik served on the General Staff's planning directorate and was reportedly involved in planning Russia's all-out invasion in 2022. (RFE/RL, 04.28.25)
• The Russian military intelligence agency (GRU) oversaw the recruitment of prisoners into assault units known as "Storm Z." It also funded the units and collected of information about casualties. (RFE/RL, 04.28.25)

Tuesday, April 29, 2025

• On Tuesday, April 29, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Sukha Balka. (RM, 05.02.25)
• Russian forces launched 100 attack drones across Ukraine overnight, the Ukrainian authorities said on Tuesday, killing a child. (The New York Times, 04.29.25)
• A military court in Rostov-on-Don has convicted five Melitopol residents of plotting a terrorist attack soon after Russian troops occupied the Ukrainian city. (Meduza, 04.29.25)

Wednesday, April 30, 2025

• Overnight Russian Shahed drone attacks killed one person in Dnipro on April 29–30 and injured at least 45 in Kharkiv and other cities in Ukraine. More than 100 air strikes lasting hours sparked multiple fires. (RFE/RL, 04.30.25)
• Russia intensified its attacks across Ukraine’s frontline and several. Ukraine’s General Staff reported 177 clashes on the battlefield in the country’s southeast early Wednesday with Russian troops “rushing” deeper into Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 04.30.25)
• By some estimates, as many as 70% of all Russian casualties are caused by drones, a technology in which Ukraine is now a world leader. Last year, Ukraine built more than one million first-person-view drones, and intends to increase production in 2025. (Times of London, 04.30.25)
• Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrsky ordered to send servicemen of the TCC (analogous to military registration and enlistment offices in Ukraine) without combat experience to serve in the combat zone, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said in a statement. (Istories, 04.30.25)

Thursday, May 1, 2025

• On Thursday, May 1, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Tarasivka. (RM, 05.02.25)
• On Wednesday night, Russian forces launched an attack on Ukrainian territory using five Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 170 drones of various types, according to Ukraine’s Air Force Command. By Thursday morning, Ukrainian forces had shot down 74 attack drones. Another 68 decoy drones were “lost from radar,” the military said. The attack affected the Odesa, Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk, and Kyiv regions. (Meduza, 05.01.25)
• New intelligence reviewed by U.S. and Western officials suggests Putin may have shifted his immediate focus in the Ukraine war toward the shorter-term objectives of solidifying his hold on territory his forces have seized and boosting his country’s struggling economy. This represents an evolution from recent U.S. and Western intelligence assessments suggesting that Putin felt the state of the war was to his advantage, that he had the momentum as well as the manpower to sustain a longer fight against a faltering Ukraine and seize the entire country. Senior U.S. officials remain skeptical of Putin and his repeated assertions in ongoing talks that he wants a peace deal, even though what is being proposed by the U.S. is incredibly generous to Russia, handing them most of the territory they’ve taken. (CNN, 05.01.25)
• U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth wants the U.S. Army to shed outdated weapons and vehicles and increase its use of drones as part of a broad overhaul of the military’s largest service. In a directive, the Pentagon chief ordered the Army to “end procurement of obsolete systems, and cancel or scale back ineffective or redundant programs” including manned aircraft, excess ground vehicles and what it said were outdated unmanned aerial vehicles. (Bloomberg, 05.01.25)
  • The U.S. Army is embarking on its largest overhaul since the end of the Cold War, with plans to equip each of its combat divisions with around 1,000 drones and to shed outmoded weapons and other equipment. The Army's 10 active-duty divisions would shift heavily into unmanned aircraft if the plan is carried out, using them for surveillance, to move supplies and to carry out attacks. To glean the lessons from Ukraine's war against Russia, U.S. officers have debriefed its military personnel and consulted contractors who have worked with Kyiv's military about their innovative use of drones. (Wall Street Journal, 05.01.25)

Friday, May 2, 2025

• Russian strikes wounded more than 30 people in Ukraine overnight, officials said on Friday. “Twenty-nine people were wounded as a result of a nocturnal attack by the enemy” on the industrial city of Zaporizhia, regional governor Ivan Fedorov wrote on Telegram, adding that a 13-year-old boy was among the victims of the drone strike. (MT/AFP, 05.02.25)
• Ukrainian officials said Friday that "unknown drones" had targeted a Russian military intelligence station that spies on foreign satellites and electronic signals. The governor of southern Russia's Stavropol region, Vladimir Vladimirov, said drone fragments fell in the village of Moskovskoye without casualties or other damage early that morning. (MT/AFP, 05.02.25)
• The Ukrainian Defense Procurement Agency has already contracted about 8,000 ground robotic complexes by 2025. This was stated by the head of the ground equipment office of AOZ Sergey Prolubshchikov during a briefing, writes "Militarny." (Ukrainska Pravda, 05.02.25)

Military aid to Ukraine:

• Whether or not Trump would continue that arms supply in the event of his withdrawal from talks is an unknown that plagues the minds of Ukrainian and European leaders. Trump himself is providing little clarity. Asked this very question during an interview to mark 100 days in office, the president said: “I want to leave that as a big, fat secret.” If U.S. aid is halted, analysts believe that the flow of U.S. arms would run out within about six months. (Times of London, 04.30.25)
  • The Trump administration has told Congress that it intends to give the go-ahead for roughly $50 million of defense-related products to be exported to Ukraine through American industry sales direct to Kyiv. This would be transferred under a process known as direct commercial sales (DCS); this is when the State Department grants a U.S. company permission to sell directly to a foreign buyer, rather than sales going through the Pentagon's Foreign Military Sales program. (Newsweek, 05.01.25)
• Europe would struggle to collectively muster 25,000 troops to be part of a “deterrence” force in Ukraine because its armies are undermanned and underfunded. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the British chief of the defense staff, is said to have asked his counterparts on the Continent if they could put together a 64,000-strong force to send to the country in the event of a peace deal. He said Britain would be willing to send up to 10,000 personnel in a meeting earlier this month, it is understood. (Times of London, 04.29.25)
  • Estonia may contribute a company of soldiers to a potential peace-keeping mission in Ukraine as part of a “reassurance force” led by the UK and France, Prime Minister Kristen Michal said. (Bloomberg, 04.30.25)
  • Russia continues to reject U.S. and European proposals to deploy Western peacekeeping forces to Ukraine and calls for Ukraine to make territorial concessions in pursuit of a lasting peace in Ukraine, signaling the Kremlin's unyielding negotiating position. Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu stated on April 30 during a BRICS foreign ministers' summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil that Russia will consider Western peacekeeping contingents in Ukraine as legitimate military targets and that such contingents are unacceptable. (ISW, 05.01.25)
• Czech Defense Minister Jana Černochová announced on April 27 that the Czech Ammunition Initiative will have delivered another 400,000 rounds of large-caliber artillery ammunition to Ukraine by April 30. (ISW, 04.28.25)
• Two UK university student unions have suspended their Ukrainian societies as they probe if they breached charity rules to buy drones that were later sent to support troops fighting Russian soldiers. The unions at University College London and Lancaster University suspended the societies after becoming aware of the purchases, which were made last year, arguing they were a potential breach of UK charity laws. (Financial Times, 05.02.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• U.S. officials have prepared a set of options for Trump to increase economic pressure on Russia, according to people familiar with the matter. The people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations, cautioned that Trump has made no decision yet as diplomatic efforts were ongoing. (Bloomberg, 05.02.25)
  • The U.S. State Department has confirmed its readiness to impose stricter sanctions on Russia, states State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce. “Clearly, we're not removing any sanctions that currently exist. The president wants in every action that we've taken as a nation to do it diplomatically… because of the commitment to it. He also knows that there's another part of the world, a whole globe that needs some attention," said the spokesperson. (RBC.ua, 05.02.25)
  • Rubio told U.S. media that Trump hasn't imposed new penalties on Russia because he still hopes diplomacy can end the war. Addressing the prospect of imposing penalties on Vladimir Putin, Rubio said: "The minute you start doing that kind of stuff, you're walking away from it." (BBC, 04.27.25)
• Commodity traders, insurers and shipping groups are among western companies approaching lawyers for advice on how to restart trading with Russia, in preparation for a potential lifting of U.S. sanctions on Moscow. If U.S. sanctions were eased, oil traders would probably seek to re-engage with Russia more quickly than oil producers. (Financial Times, 04.30.25)
• McDonald’s Corp. and Coca-Cola Co. said they continue to see risks to operating in Russia, a signal that major U.S. firms remain cautious about business investments in the country. (Bloomberg, 04.29.25)
• Euroclear will redistribute 3 billion euros from a pool of 10 billion euros in cash belonging to Russian entities and individuals hit by European Union sanctions. (Reuters, 05.02.25)
• The EU is preparing a “plan B” on how to keep economic sanctions against Russia should the Trump administration abandon Ukraine peace talks and seek rapprochement with Moscow, according to the bloc’s top diplomat. “Kaja Kallas, the EU’s high representative for foreign and security policy, said there was a “plan B” to maintain economic pressure on Russia should Hungary block the rollover of EU economic sanctions in July (Financial Times, 05.01.25)
• A dry cargo ship was detained in Ukrainian territorial waters as it headed from Moldova along the River Danube and into the Black Sea, the Prosecutor General’s Office of Ukraine said. Investigators did not specify the cargo nor name the ship, which Ukraine’s security services said had sailed under the flag of an Asian nation. (Bloomberg, 04.26.26)
• Forty-nine of the 200 Russian businessmen on Forbes’ list of billionaires left Russia in late February and March 2022, according to Proekt’s analysis of leaked border crossing data. (MT/AFP, 04.30.25)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Friday, April 25, 2025

• Trump on April 25 called for Ukraine and Russia to meet for high-level talks to complete a deal to end the conflict between the two countries after White House envoy Steve Witkoff met with Putin in Moscow. Trump said it had been a "good day" of talks after Witkoff met with Putin for about three hours. “They are very close to a deal, and the two sides should now meet, at very high levels, to 'finish it off,'" Trump wrote. "Most of the major points are agreed to. Stop the bloodshed, NOW. We will be wherever is necessary to help facilitate the END to this cruel and senseless war!" (RFE/RL, 04.26.25)
  • At the meeting with Witkoff Putin insisted that Russia must take control of four regions of Ukraine it doesn’t fully occupy as part of any agreement to end his war, according to three people in Moscow familiar with the matter. Witkoff sought to persuade Putin that Russia should agree to a ceasefire that halts fighting along the current frontlines, according to two of the people, who asked not be identified discussing sensitive issues. Instead, the Russian leader maintained his maximalist position on territory, they said. Negotiations have reached an impasse for now, and it requires direct contact between Putin and Trump to make further progress, one of the people said. Russia is ready to hold peace talks with Ukraine "without preconditions,” Putin told Witkoff at a meeting on Friday, the Kremlin said. (Bloomberg, 04.29.25, The Moscow Times, 04.26.25)
• After rejecting a White House plan that would have given the Kremlin much of what it wants. Ukraine’s leadership has drafted a counterproposal to a Trump administration peace plan that has drawn criticism for conceding too much to Russia. Under the plan, which was obtained by The New York Times, there would be no restrictions on the size of the Ukrainian military, “a European security contingent” backed by the United States would be deployed on Ukrainian territory to guarantee security, and frozen Russian assets would be used to repair damage in Ukraine caused during the war. (New York Times, 04.25.25)
  • Kyiv and its European allies insist that a ceasefire and clarity over security guarantees for Ukraine must precede any deal that involves negotiations over territory, according to people familiar with the matter. “I spoke to Trump about it—for us the backstop isn’t necessarily boots on the ground,” Zelenskiy said. “I know the U.S. view on this is not very positive—so we’re talking about intelligence, cybersecurity and Patriots,” the president said, referring to U.S.-made missiles that are critical for Ukraine’s air defense. (Bloomberg, 04.26.26)

Saturday, April 26, 2025

• Trump and Zelenskyy held private talks during Pope Francis’s Vatican funeral to advance peace negotiations. Zelenskyy made his 15 minutes with Trump count, urging Trump to take a tougher line with Putin and reprioritize a ceasefire, two sources briefed on Saturday's meeting tell Axios. Zelensky told Trump that Putin would not budge unless Trump applied more pressure, the sources say. One source said Trump replied that he might have to change his approach to Putin, as he later stated in his Truth Social post. Zelensky also pushed Trump to return to his initial proposal of an unconditional ceasefire as a starting point for peace talks, which Ukraine accepted but Russia rejected. Zelensky reiterated in the meeting that he won't recognize Crimea as Russian, and Trump made clear that he's not asking him to, one source said. (Axios, 04.30.25, RFE/RL, 04.26.25, Financial Times, 04.26.25)
  • On April 26 in a post on Truth Social after meeting Zelenskyy, the U.S. president questioned Putin’s willingness to end the war. “There was no reason for Putin to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns over the last few days,” he wrote. “It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through “Banking” or “Secondary Sanctions?” Too many people are dying!!!” Trump said Zelenskiy seemed "calmer," in what could have been a reference to a very public clash between the two presidents at the White House in February. The White House said Trump and Zelenskiy had a “productive discussion.” (Financial Times, 04.26.25, BBC, 04.27.25, Bloomberg, 04.26.25)⁷
  • Zelenskiy hailed the potential for “reliable and lasting peace” after speaking with Trump at the Vatican. “We discussed a lot one on one. Hoping for results on everything we covered,” Zelenskiy said on X. “Very symbolic meeting that has potential to become historic, if we achieve joint results.” In addition, the U.S.-Ukrainian minerals deals has become the first outcome of the meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump at the Vatican, Zelenskyy said. (RBC.ua, 05.02.25, RFE/RL, 05.02.25, Bloomberg, 04.26.25)
• Zelenskiy acknowledged that Ukrainian forces would be unable to regain control over Crimea and said the U.S. won’t have to commit troops as part of security guarantees in an “This is true what Trump says, that we don’t have enough weapon—weapons, not people—to regain control of Crimea by arms,” Zelenskiy told reporters in Kyiv. “But there is a possibility of sanctions, other economic pressure, diplomatic pressure,” Zelenskiy added. (Bloomberg, 04.26.25)

Sunday, April 27, 2025

• Asked if he thought the Ukrainian president was ready to cede control of Crimea, which was illegally annexed by Russia in 2014, Trump replied: "I think so." (BBC, 04.27.25)
• German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned Ukraine not to agree to a deal which involves sweeping territorial concessions in return for a ceasefire. He told German public broadcaster ARD that Kyiv "should not go as far as the latest proposal by the American president," which he said would amount to a "capitulation." (BBC, 04.27.25)

Monday, April 28, 2025

• Following criticism of the Kremlin from Trump, Vladimir Putin announced a May 8–May 11 ceasefire by his armed forces, which have been making incremental land gains in Ukraine, “Any military operations will be ceased during this period” by the “Russian side,” he declared on April 28. Afew hours later, Trump’s press secretary Karoline Leavitt said it was not enough. “He wants to see a permanent ceasefire,” she said of Trump, adding that “remains optimistic he can strike a deal.”⁸ Putin’s announcement came one day Trump had a brief one-on-one meeting with Zelensky on the sidelines of Pope Francis’s funeral ceremony. (RM, 04.28.25)
  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov hinted that an imminent deal was unlikely. "We are ready to reach a deal," Lavrov said. " “But there are still some specific points—elements of this deal which need to be fine-tuned.” Lavrov reiterated on April 28 Russia's longstanding demands for Ukraine's surrender and concessions from the West, as Russia continues to offer no concessions of its own. Russian officials, including Putin, have repeated Russia's longstanding demands that any resolution to the war in Ukraine must include Ukrainian regime change, demilitarization, abandonment of aspirations to join NATO or any security bloc, and the cession of territory to Russia. (ISW, 04.28.25, Washington Post, 04.28.25)
  • The Russian side has repeatedly signaled its readiness to begin negotiations with Ukraine without any preconditions," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. "These efforts continue,” he said. (MT/AFP, 04.28.25)
• European and Ukrainian officials fear Trump is on the brink of walking away from peace negotiations with Kyiv and Moscow, potentially using minor progress in talks as an “excuse” to say his job is done, according to people briefed on the discussions. One European official said Trump was “setting up a situation where he gives himself excuses to walk away and leave it to Ukraine and us [Europe] to fix.” (Financial Times, 04.28.25)
• French President Emmanuel Macron said he’s urging Trump to get tougher with Putin. In an interview with Paris Match published on April 28, Macron said he believed he has “convinced the Americans of the possibility of escalating threats, and potentially sanctions.” (Bloomberg, 04.29.25)

Tuesday, April 29, 2025

• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned on April 29 that unless Russia and Ukraine put forward specific plans for ending the war in Ukraine, the United States will curtail its efforts to mediate. State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce cited Rubio as saying that the time had been reached at which "concrete proposals need to be delivered by the two parties on how to end this conflict." If there is not progress, the United States "will step back as mediators in this process," Bruce told reporters. (RFE/RL, 04.30.25)
  • The US is stepping back from its involvement in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine to end Europe’s bloodiest conflict since World War II, a State Department official signaled on May 1. “We are not going to fly around the world at the drop of a hat to mediate meetings, that it is now between the two parties, and now – now is the time that they need to present and develop concrete ideas about how this conflict is going to end. It’s going to be up to them, Bruce said.( NY Post, DOS, 05.01.25)
• On April 29 Trump once again claimed that Putin wants peace in Ukraine, just days after suggesting the opposite. When asked by ABC whether Putin wants to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine, Trump said “I think he does, yes,” the U.S. president answered. “I think… his dream was to take over the whole country. I think because of me, he’s not gonna do that.” (MT/AFP, 04.30.25)
• On April 29 Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg, said that the administration is just waiting on Russia to agree to a ceasefire. We’ve got one side [Ukraine], now you need to come up with the other side, and I think we’re close,” he told Fox News. “This is the last 100 yards to an objective. In the military, it’s the toughest 100 yards.” (CNN, 05.01.25)
• ''There is no reason to wait until May 8,'' President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said in his nightly address on April 29, calling Putin’s announcement of the 3-day ceasefire in May ''another attempt at manipulation'.” If Russia truly wants a ceasefire, Mr. Zelensky added, ''it must be immediate, full and unconditional—for at least 30 days to ensure it is secure and guaranteed.'' He also said that ''the ceasefire should not be just for a few days, only to return to killing afterward.’ “Russia must take clear steps to end the war,” Zelenskiy wrote. “And we insist that a full and unconditional ceasefire must be the first step. Russia has to make that move.” (Bloomberg, 04.29.25, The New York Times, 04.29.25)
• Moscow has rejected Kyiv’s push for a 30-day ceasefire and insisted that a three-day truce timed to coincide with Victory Day celebrations would constitute the beginning of direct Russian-Ukrainian negotiations without preconditions. On Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov defended Vladimir Putin’s offer of a short-term ceasefire—from midnight on May 8 until midnight on May 11—in honor of the 80th anniversary of the USSR’s defeat of Nazi Germany Lavrov claimed on April 29 that the May 8 to 11 ceasefire will be the "beginning of direct negotiations, without preconditions," but stated that Russia considers the U.S.- and Ukrainian-proposed 30-day ceasefire to be a "precondition." Lavrov reiterated Putin's rejection of the U.S.- and Ukrainian-proposed longer-term ceasefires, claiming that Russia cannot accept any longer-term ceasefire since such ceasefires require extensive monitoring measures. Lavrov stated that Russia does not think "honest" monitoring is possible during a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine. (ISW, 04.29.25, Meduza, 04.29.25)
• On Apil 29 the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, said Moscow would not agree to a longer ceasefire without hammering out more details. ''Details matter if you're talking about a lengthy ceasefire: It would be difficult to agree to such a lengthy ceasefire without addressing those issues,'' Mr. Peskov told Russian news agencies. Peskov said Russia was prepared to talk to Mr. Zelensky's government even though it considers him an illegitimate president, as elections have been suspended in Ukraine under martial law. (The New York Times, 04.29.25)
• Deputy chairman of Russian Security Council Secretary Dmitry Medvedev stated on April 29 that Russia's war in Ukraine must end in Russian "victory" and the "destruction" of the current Ukrainian government. Meanwhile Russian Presidential Aide and former Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev claimed that Ukrainian civilians, particularly those living in the Black Sea region, must "determine their own future." Patrushev specifically claimed that Odesa City residents have "nothing in common" with the current Ukrainian government. (ISW, 04.29.25)
• In an interview Finland President Alexander Stubb warned against subjecting Ukraine to “Finlandization,” called for more pressure on Russia’s leader to get a peace deal and said President Trump was running out of patience.” “The [U.S.] president is running out of patience, and we’ve now seen statements which are quite tough on Putin and Russia,” Mr. Stubb said. “So I just hope the Kremlin understands that you don’t play with President Trump.” (The New York Times, 04.29.25)

Wednesday, April 30, 2025

• U.S. Special Envoy Keith Kellogg said on April 30 that he does not expect Washington to abandon peace efforts despite previous threats from the White House to do so. "The Ukrainians have already said they're willing to give up the land… not de jure, forever, but de facto because the Russians actually occupy it… That's what they're willing to go to, they told me that last week," Kellogg said in a television interview with Fox News. "We had 22 concrete terms that (Ukraine) agreed to. What they want… and what they have is a very comprehensive and permanent ceasefire that leads to a peace treaty. When I mean comprehensive, sea, air, land infrastructure for at least 30 days… It could build to an important peace initiative," Kellogg said.  Putin announced on April 28 a temporary ceasefire from May 8 to 11, which Kellogg on April 29 criticized as "absurd." Kellogg noted a ceasefire should last at least 30 days, adding that it is what Trump believes should be done. (Kyiv Independent, 04.30.25, Kyiv Independent, 04.30.25)
• On April 30 Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday that Ukraine should engage directly with Moscow on peace negotiations rather than rely on U.S. mediation. “America is trying to mediate, and we’re grateful to the United States for these truly intense efforts,” Peskov told reporters. “[But] a peace agreement should be signed with Ukraine, not with America.” Peskov suggested that ending the war according to Washington’s exceedingly short timeline would be “too complicated, with many issues and details still to be resolved before settlement.” (MT/AFP, 04.30.25)

Thursday, May 1, 2025

• On May 1, JD Vance stated that there is a "very large gap" between the positions of Ukraine and Russia regarding the end of the war, despite statements about readiness for peace through direct talks. Vance said Trump’s administration was working to “find some middle ground” to stop a conflict that has been raging for more than three years, but “It’s not going anywhere. The Trump administration is now focused on brokering a “durable solution” to the Russia–Ukraine war within the next 100 days, Vance said. However, “it is "going to be up to the Russians and Ukrainians now that each side knows what the other's terms for peace are. It's going to be up to them to come to an agreement and stop this brutal, brutal conflict," he said. (Euronews, 05.02.25, BBC, 05.02.25, CNBC, 05.02.25, UNN.ua, 05.01.25, Kyiv Independent, 05.01.25)
• "I think we know where Ukraine is, and we know where Russia is right now… They're closer, but they're still far apart," Rubio said on Fox News on May 1. "We have made real progress, but those last couple of steps of this journey were always going to be the hardest ones, and it needs to happen soon," he said. This week will be "very critical" for Russia-Ukraine war talks as Washington decides if it is an "endeavor that we want to continue to be involved in," he said. (RFE/RL, 04.27.25, MT/AFP, 04.27.25, BBC, 04.27.25, RFE/RL, 05.02.25)

Friday, May 2, 2025

• Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga said Ukraine will not agree to "peace at any cost," and also named the red lines in peace talks, which "remain clear and unchanged." "Firstly, we will not recognize any temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine as Russian," he said. Also, according to him, Ukraine will not limit the structure or size of its army, reduce the defense industry, military assistance from allies, or the presence of their contingents. “Thirdly, we will not accept any restrictions on Ukraine's sovereignty, our domestic and foreign policy, in particular on the choice of unions and alliances that we seek to join," the head of the Foreign Ministry emphasized. (Ukrainska Pravda, 05.02.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Some 100 miles east of its border with Finland, in the Russian city of Petrozavodsk, Russian military engineers are expanding army bases where the Kremlin plans to create a new army headquarters to oversee tens of thousands of troops over the next several years. Those soldiers, many now serving on the front lines in Ukraine, are intended to be the backbone of a Russian military preparing to face off with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, according to Western military and intelligence officials. (Wall Street Journal, 04.27.25)
  • Military experts inside Russia, characterize the activity along the Finnish border as part of the Kremlin's preparation for potential conflict with NATO. (Wall Street Journal, 04.27.25)
  • Kaliningrad Oblast formed a new reserve unit, possibly as part of the Kremlin's ongoing preparations for future aggression against NATO. Kaliningrad Oblast Governor Alexey Besprozvannykh announced on April 19 that Kaliningrad Oblast formed the "BARS-39" (Russian Combat Army Reserve) reserve unit after receiving approval from the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD). (ISW, 04.29.25)
• On May 9 France and Poland are set to sign a wide-ranging treaty covering defense and economic matters in the latest move by European countries to deepen military ties in the face of Russia’s aggression and uncertainty over U.S. security guarantees. (Financial Times, 05.02.25)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• In October 2024, the U.S. Coast Guard spotted two Chinese maritime enforcement vessels operating alongside a pair of Russian border patrol boats as they transited the Bering Sea, just kilometers from Alaskan waters. It was the third consecutive year that a joint Russian-Chinese military convoy sailed through the strategic waterway. (RFE/RL, 05.02.25)
• Thailand has asked for Russia's support in the matter of the kingdom joining BRICS as a full member, the Thai Foreign Ministry said, commenting on the meeting between the department's chief Maris Sangiampongsa and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on April 28, held on the sidelines of the BRICS foreign ministers' meeting in Rio de Janeiro. (TASS, 05.02.25)
• U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs have affected many countries but they don’t target Russia, while China’s economy can ensure any pressure, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev said. (TASS, 05.01.25)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• No significant developments.

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• The new government in Damascus is seeking such relations with Russia that are balanced and based on mutual respect, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani said in an interview with Al Arabiya television. (TASS, 04.30.25)

Cyber security/AI: 

• France accused Russian military intelligence of orchestrating nearly a decade of cyberattacks against French ministries, defense contractors and media outlets with the aim of gathering intelligence and sowing division in the country. The French cybersecurity agency said Tuesday a group of Russian hackers that Western security officials call APT28 was behind more than a dozen attacks in France since 2021, targeting think tanks, French government entities. (Wall Street Journal, 04.30.25)
• On April 26 Ukraine was experiencing major outages in payments, banking and online services, local media and providers reported on Saturday. Users were reporting they were unable to use cards to make payments in many retail stores, on public transport and in taxis, while services like Apple Pay and national payment providers were also not available, according to media reports. (Bloomberg, 04.26.26)

Energy exports from CIS:

• No significant developments.

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Russian state media have reported Thursday Rubio may attend Moscow's May 9 celebrations in Red Square to commemorate the end of World War Two. Zvezda, a TV channel of the Russian defense ministry, cited an unnamed diplomatic source that the U.S. might be represented by Rubio at the show piece event for the Kremlin which parades Russian military hardware. (Newsweek, 05.01.25)
  • According to RBC, the leaders of 19 countries have confirmed their attendance at the Victory Day parade. In addition to the head of Abkhazia, Badr Gunba, the presidents of Azerbaijan and Belarus—Ilham Aliyev and Alexander Lukashenko—will come to Moscow, as well as the presidents of Brazil, Venezuela, and Kazakhstan—Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Nicolás Maduro, and Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. Also attending are the leaders of Armenia, Burkina Faso, and Vietnam—Nikol Pashinyan, Ibrahim Traoré, and Tô Lâm; the heads of China, Kyrgyzstan, Cuba, and Palestine—Xi Jinping, Sadyr Japarov, Miguel Díaz-Canel, and Mahmoud Abbas. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, the leader of Republika Srpska Milorad Dodik, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, and the presidents of Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—Emomali Rahmon, Serdar Berdimuhamedow, and Shavkat Mirziyoyev—have confirmed their participation. (RBC, 04.27.25)
  • Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will not attend Russia’s annual Victory Day military parade next week as tensions with Pakistan escalate over a deadly attack in Kashmir, the Kremlin said Wednesday. (MT/AFP, 04.30.25)
• Trump said he will nominate Michael Waltz, his current national security adviser, to be the next U.S. ambassador to the UN, sidelining a top aide who drew a wave of criticism for inadvertently adding a journalist to a Signal group chat where officials discussed sensitive attack plans. Marco Rubio will serve as interim national security adviser while keeping his job as secretary of state. (Bloomberg, 05.02.25)

• A U.S. federal court has ordered the U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM) to disburse funds for April to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty from the broadcaster’s congressional appropriation, amid a fight over winding down operations at a number of U.S.-funded broadcasters. (RFE/RL, 04.30.25)

   

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• The Russian Finance Ministry has increased its budget deficit target for this year to 1.7% of GDP, up from 0.5%, due to reduced expectations for revenue and oil prices. The government plans to cover the increased deficit by spending from the National Wealth Fund, and has increased planned budget spending by 2% to 42.3 trillion rubles, including record military spending. (Bloomberg, 05.01.25)
• In an April 25, 2025 report on the results of a survey of Russian opinion on Vladimir Putin’s leadership, Putin’s approval remained almost unchanged from where it’s been for six months: 87%. Levada reports that “the share of those who do not approve of the activities of the current president” has also remained constant at 11%. Wealthy respondents and those who trust television as a source of information register 90% and 96% approval respectively. Finally, those who believe Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine has benefitted Russia register a 96% approval of Putin. (Levada Center, 04.25.25)
• In an April 25, 2025 report asking Russians what factors convince them Russia is moving in either the right or wrong direction, Levada Center reports that of those who responded, six factors proved significant. For the ‘right direction’ respondents (82% of those surveyed), the main six factors were:

1. The government is following the correct policy (domestic and foreign): 21%;
2. Russia’s social development and support are strong:19%;
3. The SVO/fighting for peace is necessary and beneficial: 16%;
4. Russia’s welfare is improving/there is work/there is everything in stores/Russians are not starving: 12%;
5. Putin is a good leader: 10%; and
6. Russia is stable: 4%.

• For the ‘wrong direction’ respondents (72% of those surveyed), the main six factors were:

1. Price increases/impoverishment/pensions and salaries are too low/the standard of is falling/inflation is rising: 30%;
2. Economic decline/unemployment: 17%;
3. Irremovability of power/the need to change state policy/corruption: 11%;
4. Inadequate healthcare: 6%;
5. Bad social policy: 4%; and
6. No quality education: 4%. (Levada Center, 04.25.25)

Defense and aerospace:

• In 2021, before the invasion, Russia made about 40 of its main battle tanks, the T-90M, according to Western intelligence estimates. Now it is producing nearly 300 a year. A senior Finnish military official said almost none are being sent to the front line in Ukraine, but are staying on Russian soil for later use. (Wall Street Journal, 04.27.25)
• Russian military recruitment officials are reportedly leveraging a new law extending the validity of conscription notices to detain military-aged men and meet Russia's record-high Spring 2025 conscription quota. Putin signed a law on April 21 that simplifies conscription procedures for military aged men who were called up in a semi-annual conscription but did not deploy for compulsory military service. (ISW, 04.29.25)
• “Our plants produced as much as 80% of all the equipment currently fighting on the frontlines. The manufacturing capacity of our defense plants is at an all-time high. If the country needs more tanks, planes, and helicopters, we are ready to produce them,” Rostec said in a statement to TASS. (The National Interest, 04.28.25)
• President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday signed a decree renaming Volgograd’s airport to Stalingrad International Airport in tribute to the city’s role in the bloodiest battle of World War II. (MT/AFP, 04.30.25)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) said Friday that it detained a would-be female bomber suspected of plotting a Victory Day attack on law enforcement officers in the North Caucasus republic of Dagestan. (MT/AFP, 05.02.25)

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• No significant developments.

Ukraine:

• On April 30 the Trump administration finally struck an agreement⁹ with Ukraine that grants the U.S. privileged access to the embattled country’s natural resources, including aluminum, graphite, oil and natural gas. The Treasury Department said that the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation would work with Ukraine to finalize the details of the agreement. (Bloomberg, 05.01.25, The New York Times, 04.30.25)
• Under the terms of the deal:
  • While Washington has argued that the deal is necessary for any continued U.S. support, it does not include explicit security guarantees, and Ukraine will be beholden to it regardless of whether a peace deal is secured with Russia. However, any future U.S. military assistance, such as contributions to Ukraine’s air defenses, will be qualified as investment under the terms of the deal. The text of the agreement, made public by Ukraine’s government, made no mention of the security guarantees that Kyiv had long sought. (ISW, 04.30.25, Financial Times, 05.01.25, The New York Times, 05.01.25)
  • The text of the agreement, as published by Kyiv Independent, notes that  If “the Government of the United States of America delivers new military assistance to the Government of Ukraine in any form (including the donation of weapons systems, ammunition, technology or training), the capital contribution of the U.S. Partner will be deemed to be increased by the assessed value of such military assistance, in accordance with the LP Agreement.” (RM, 05.02.25)
  • The agreement establishes the "United States-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund” that the United States and Ukraine will equally pay into to fund development, infrastructure, and natural resource extraction projects in Ukraine. (ISW, 05.01.25)
  • The U.S. would get first claim on profits transferred into a special investment fund. Part of the income will go to reimburse the U.S. for future military assistance to Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 05.01.25)
• Ukraine is believed to have deposits of at least 20 of the 50 minerals that the U.S. considers critical. These include lithium, graphite, titanium, uranium and rare earths, a collection of 17 elements that are essential for everything from cellphones to the defense industry. (Wall Street Journal, 05.01.25) But:
  • The Ukrainian government has published maps showing the locations of various mineral deposits, but most of those are based on studies conducted during the Soviet era, said Roman Opimakh, former director general of the Ukrainian Geological Survey, the national resources regulator. Maps showing trillions of dollars of mineral deposits scattered across Ukraine—including in areas occupied by Russian forces—are based largely on outdated studies, and proper surveys could take several years to complete, experts said. (Wall Street Journal, 05.01.25, The New York Times, 05.02.25)
  • Gracelin Baskaran, the director of the Critical Minerals Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies cautioned that it could take several years for proper surveys to be carried out. “There could be a lot more economically viable deposits, or it could be that they are not viable,” she said, adding, “On average it takes 18 years after finding a viable deposit to go to extraction.” (The New York Times, 05.02.25)
  • Somewhere between 20% and 40% of Ukraine’s deposits are critical minerals located in areas of the country currently under Russian occupation, according to George Ingall, a price analyst at Benchmark Minerals Intelligence. Two of the country's four known lithium deposits are in areas under Russian control. (Wall Street Journal, 05.01.25)
  • Currently, foreign investors are reluctant to significantly scale up mineral projects in Ukraine for a number of reasons, including the war. Trump cannot force private U.S. firms to make expensive and potentially unprofitable investments. Alex Jacquez, who served as a senior official on minerals in the Biden administration, said it's extremely unlikely Ukraine has the ability to develop a new mining industry in lithium or rare earth metals, calling the trillions of dollars in natural resources claimed by the Trump administration to be illusory. (Washington Post, 05.01.25)
• U.S. President Donald Trump, by signing the subsoil agreement, dealt Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a "royal flush" in peace negotiations with Russia, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned this during a Fox Business broadcast. “This agreement signals clearly to Russia that the Trump administration is committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign and prosperous Ukraine over the long term,” Bessent said in announcing the agreement Wednesday. ''This agreement signals clearly to Russia that the Trump administration is committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign and prosperous Ukraine over the long term,'' he said. ''And to be clear, no state or person who financed or supplied the Russian war machine will be allowed to benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine,” he said. (The New York Times, 05.01.25, RBC.ua, 05.02.25, The New York Times, 04.30.25)
• The landmark minerals deal between Ukraine and the United States offers "equal" benefits for both sides and opportunities for investment in Ukraine and the modernization of its industry, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on May 1. The deal is the first outcome of the meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump at the Vatican, Zelenskyy said. (RBC.ua, 05.02.25, RFE/RL, 05.02.25)
• Ukrainian Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko presented the final agreement as an equal partnership, saying the investment fund would be structured on a 50-50 basis and managed jointly by Ukraine and the U.S. Government assets, including oil company Ukrnafta and nuclear power producer Energoatom, would remain in Ukrainian state ownership. (Bloomberg, 05.01.25)
• "We welcome the agreement concluded yesterday, which takes into account, in particular, Ukraine's accession process and EU law, which is obviously of key importance. And this is something that we have, of course, discussed with our Ukrainian colleagues," European Commission spokeswoman Paula Pinho said on Friday in Brussels. (Interfax.ua, 05.02.25)
• Concern is growing in Moscow that Russia could lose its edge in talks with the United States over the Ukraine war now that Kyiv finally signed an economic partnership agreement giving Washington preferential access to future Ukrainian minerals deals. Russian officials poured scorn on the deal this week, with one senator, Alexei Pushkov saying it represented "another major step toward the colonization of Ukraine." Deputy head of the parliament's international affairs committee Alexei Chepa echoed him, saying the deal had further increased Ukraine's dependency on the United States. (Washington Post, 05.02.25)
  • Medvedev on Thursday mocked a new U.S.-Ukraine investment deal as forcing Kyiv to pay for military aid with its natural resources, calling Ukraine a “vanishing country.” (MT/AFP, 05.01.25)
• SBU has detained son of ex-president of Motor Sich in Monaco in a high-profile case worth $650 million. Oleksandr Bohuslayev, the son of former Motor Sich president Vyacheslav Bohuslayev, was detained in Monaco on suspicion of embezzling this company’s assets. (RBC.ua, Kyiv Post, 05.02.25)
• Funding for the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU), the National Agency on Corruption Prevention (NACP), the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO), and the High Anti-Corruption Court (HACC) costs Ukraine nearly UAH 4 billion per year. However, the funds that they recovered in 2024 amounted to less than UAH 1 billion, according to NABU’s data. (UNN.ua, 04.28.25)
• Outgoing NSA Waltz said: “I will say Ukraine was one of, and is one of, the most corrupt countries in the world. We always have to protect the taxpayers’ dollars. And there have been billions going in. And I don’t think, remember, I don’t think the previous administration had all of the appropriate oversight going in. So we have to keep a hard eye on that,” according to Kyiv Post, which finds his claim to be misleading. (Kyiv Post, 04.29.25) Scoring 180 countries around the world, the Corruption Perceptions Index is the leading global indicator of public sector corruption. Ukraine has a score of 35 this year, with a change of -1 since last year, meaning it ranks 105 out of 180 countries, according to Transparency International.
• A Kyiv court detained two suspects in a case involving defective mortar shell deliveries to Ukraine’s Armed Forces. Ex-defense official Mykhailo Shkurenko and quality control head Yuriy Yaresko face pre-trial detention without bail over 120,000 faulty mines. The Anti-Corruption Center highlighted the investigation as part of ongoing efforts to root out military procurement fraud amid wartime.” (NV.ua, 04.30.25)
• A Kyiv court has sentenced former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych to 15 years in prison for fleeing to Russia with his associates in February 2014. According to Interfax-Ukraine, the court found Yanukovych guilty of organizing the illegal crossing of Ukraine’s state border and inciting desertion. (Meduza, 04.28.25)
• Julie Davis has been appointed as the interim Chargé d’Affaires at the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine. She will officially assume the position next week, according to the press service of the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine. Julie Davis is a senior-ranking American diplomat and recipient of the Presidential Rank Award. (RBC.ua, 05.02.25)
• A day after the Trump administration announced an economic deal with Ukraine that gives the United States a stake in its future mineral revenues, analysts say the country’s prospects look brighter than they have in months. “These are very good signs that something might be shifting,” said Alina Polyakova, the president and chief executive of the Center for European Policy Analysis. (The New York Times, 05.01.25).
• Ukraine's government estimates that the country has 5% of the world's most critical raw materials—including lithium, titanium, uranium and graphite. The U.S. Geological Survey found that Ukraine has deposits of 20 of the 50 minerals listed as critical for America's economic development and defense. But Gracelin Baskaran, the director of the Critical Minerals Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. cautioned that it could take several years for proper surveys to be carried out. ‘There could be a lot more economically viable deposits, or it could be that they are not viable,'' she said, adding, ''On average it takes 18 years after finding a viable deposit to go to extraction.'' (The New York Times, 05.02.25)
• Somewhere between 20% and 40% of Ukraine's deposits are critical minerals located in areas of the country currently under Russian occupation, according to George Ingall, a price analyst at Benchmark Minerals Intelligence. (Wall Street Journal, 05.02.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• A court in Kyrgyzstan ruled to place an employee of Russia’s state-funded cultural exchange agency Rossotrudnichestvo under house arrest after she was detained on suspicion of recruiting locals for the Russian military. (MT/AFP, 04.28.25)
• The Kremlin is ramping up efforts to reassert its influence in Armenia ahead of the country’s 2026 parliamentary elections, the Vedomosti business daily reported Wednesday, citing officials and other sources familiar with the strategy. The initiative is being overseen by the Kremlin’s domestic policy chief Sergei Kiriyenko and will focus on shaping public opinion and cultivating pro-Russian political figures. (MT/AFP, 04.30.25)
• No significant developments.

IV. Quotable and notable

• Finland President Alexander Stubb said: “Everyone has to understand that the only thing that Putin understands is power,” Mr. Stubb said. “I mean, there’s a reason why Finland has one of the strongest militaries in Europe, and the reason is not Sweden.” (The New York Times, 04.29.25)

Footnotes

1. The past week has seen Russian and North Korean leaders to acknowledge the already well-known participation of DPRK troops in combat in Russia’s Kursk region on the Russian side.
2. Following criticism of the Kremlin from Trump, Vladimir Putin announced a May 8–May 11 ceasefire by his armed forces, which have been making incremental land gains in Ukraine. A few hours later, Trump’s press secretary Karoline Leavitt said it was not enough. “He wants to see a permanent ceasefire,” she said of Trump, adding that he “remains optimistic he can strike a deal.” (RM, 04.28.25)
3. The Treasury Department said that the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation would work with Ukraine to finalize the details of the agreement.
4. If U.S. military aid to Ukraine is halted, analysts believe that the flow of US arms would run out within about six months, according to Times of London.
5. While Russian officials have made it clear that Russia will not give up the de-facto control of Energoatom’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southeast Ukraine, they are ready to discuss U.S. presence at this NPP.
6. For post-mortem profile of Ukrainian journalist Viktoriia Roshchyna see, “She tried to expose Russia's brutal detention system—and ended up dead,” Cate Brown, Jarrett Ley, Catherine Belton, Anastacia Galouchka, WP, 04.29.25.
7. Trump over the weekend criticized Putin, saying he was “surprised and disappointed” at the Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian cities. (Financial Times, 04.28.25)
8. Trump wrote on Truth Social on April 20, 2025 that he hoped Russia and Ukraine “will make a deal” that week.
9. The full text of the agreement has been published by Kyiv Independent.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10.00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP.