5 Things to Know

1. Trump wrote on Truth Social on April 20, 2025 that he hoped Russia and Ukraine “will make a deal this week,” and then told Time on April 22 that he thinks such a deal is possible with  Zelensky remaining in power. Trump also told Time that “Crimea will stay with Russia” and that “I don’t think they [Ukrainians] will ever be able to join NATO.” The next day saw Trump lash out at Zelenskyy’s refusal to recognize the loss of Crimea, arguing that that “Crimea was lost years ago,” claiming that “nobody is asking Zelensky to recognize Crimea as Russian territory,” according to Reuters. In his turn Putin has reportedly offered to halt his invasion across the current front line and said he was open to direct talks with Kyiv on a peace deal, according to FT and NYT. Putin stated his readiness for direct talks prior to hosting Steve Witkoff for the fourth time to discuss the direct talks. The two had a 3-hour conversation in the Kremlin on April 25 in what “allowed Russia and the United States to further bring their positions closer together, not only on Ukraine but also on a number of other international issues,” according to ,Putin’s foreign policy advisor Yuri Ushakov. Shortly after the Moscow meeting ended, Trump said he heard that his envoy and Putin had "a pretty good meeting,” according to Reuters.  
2. Ukrainian and European officials pushed back this week against some U.S. proposals on how to end Russia's war in Ukraine, making counterproposals on issues from territory to sanctions, according to the full texts of the proposals seen by Reuters. The sets of proposals from talks between U.S., European and Ukrainian officials in Paris on April 17 and in London on April 23 laid bare the inner workings of the shuttle diplomacy under way as Donald Trump seeks a quick end to the war, Reuters reported. See RM’s comparison of the two proposals in Table 1 below:

Table 1

3. In the past month (March 25–April 22, 2025), Russia gained 166 square miles. (Area equivalent to about 1 ½ Nantucket island), according to the April 23, 2025 issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card . In the past week Russia gained 40 square miles (the equivalent of about 2 Manhattan islands)—a slow down as compared to the previous week’s 50 square miles in the war, which “Ukraine’s ex-chief commander Valerii Zaluzhnyi has described as being in a “stupor.” According to Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group’s map, as of April 25, 2025, Russian forces occupied a total 112,643 square kilometers of Ukrainian land (43,491 square miles), which constituted 18.7% of Ukrainian territory. In Russia’s Kursk region, Ukraine gave up 14 square miles of control: down to only 5 square miles; nearly concluding its complete withdrawal from Russia.  
4. Britain is likely to abandon plans to send thousands of troops to protect Ukraine because the risks are deemed “too high,” according to The Times of London. Britain and Europe would no longer have a ground force guarding key cities, ports and nuclear power plants to secure the peace, this newspaper reported. Instead, the focus for a security commitment to Ukraine would be on the reconstitution and rearmament of Kyiv’s army, with protection from the air and sea, according to the Times story which appeared one day before Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu warned in an interview with TASS deployment of NATO troops in what this Russian state news agency described as “new Russian territories still controlled by Ukraine” can trigger World War III.
5. In its revised outlook IMF expects Russia’s GDP growth to exceed that of “Advanced Economies” in 2025 (1.5% vs 1.4%), but this growth rate is significantly slower than that of “Emerging Market and Developing Economies,” (3.7%) and it will slow down to 0.9% in 2026.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• IAEA experts based at Ukraine’s Zaporizhiya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) were required to stay indoors on April 23 morning after hearing loud bursts of gunfire from near the main administrative building where their office is located, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said. (IAEA, 04.24.25)
• At least 30 employees of the occupied Zaporizhiya NPP and residents of Energodar are in captivity in the Russian Federation. (Korrespondent.net, 04.25.25)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• Russia is reportedly recruiting North Korean citizens to compensate for labor shortages in Russia. Ryazan Oblast Telegram channels have reported that over 100 North Korean women signed three-year contracts to work at one of the Ryazan Oblast warehouses of Russian retail giant Wildberries. (ISW, 04.23.25) 

Iran and its nuclear program:

• The U.S. would be willing to allow Iran to retain a civilian nuclear program as long as it agreed to halt all domestic uranium enrichment, Marco Rubio said. (FT, 04.24.25)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Russian investigators reported 191 civilian deaths and 372 injuries in Kursk Oblast since Ukraine’s August 2024 offensive. (Istories, 04.24.25)
• Russian authorities have returned the body of a Ukrainian journalist who died under unclear circumstances while in Russian custody last fall, Ukraine’s Deputy Interior Minister Leonid Tymchenko said Thursday. Victoria Roshchyna, 27, disappeared in August 2023 while reporting in Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 04.24.25)
• On April 19 Russia and Ukraine carried out one of the largest exchanges of prisoners of war since the start of Moscow’s all-out invasion in February 2022. Zelenskyy said that 277 Ukrainian troops had been returned following a deal brokered by the United Arab Emirates. (Axios, 04.19.25)
• Putin admitted that the Russian Armed Forces attacked civilian targets in Sumy and Odessa According to him, this was done in order to “punish” the Ukrainian military. (Istories, 04.21.25)
• The Council of Europe has finished drafting the concept for a special tribunal to prosecute Putin and other top Russian officials over the war in Ukraine, Deutsche Welle reports. (Meduza, 04.23.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the past month (March 25–April 22, 2025), Russia gained 166 square miles. (Area equivalent to about 1 ½ Nantucket island), according to the 04.23.25 issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In the past week Russia gained 40 square miles (the equivalent of about 2 Manhattan islands)—a slow down as compared to the previous week’s 50 square miles. In Russia’s Kursk region, Ukraine gave up 14 square miles of control: down to only 5 square miles; nearly concluding its complete withdrawal from Russia. (RM, 04.23.25)
• According to Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group’s map, as of April 25, 2025, Russian forces occupied a total 112,643 square kilometers of Ukrainian land (43,491 square miles), which constituted 18.7% of Ukrainian territory. (RM, 04.25.25)

Saturday, April 19, 2025:

• On April 19 Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his army to suspend combat operations in Ukraine over the Easter holiday this weekend. Putin declared the unilateral 30-hour “Easter ceasefire” for “humanitarian reasons” on Saturday in a meeting with Valery Gerasimov, his top military officer, according to footage published by the Kremlin. Ukraine agreed to observe the ceasefire. [Ukraine’s President] Zelensky reported that Russian forces did not conduct long-range strikes against Ukraine on the night of April 19 to 20 and during the day on April 20, and proposed a temporary moratorium on long-range strikes against civilian infrastructure (ISW, 04.20.25, Axios, 04.19.25)
• On April 19 Russian MoD said it ejected Ukrainian forces from a village in the Russian region of Kursk, leaving just one settlement in the area under Ukraine’s control. The Russian Defense Ministry said that its troops took over the village of Oleshnya, close to the border with Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 04.19.25)
  • Chief of the General Staff of Russia’s Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov told Putin on April 19 with regard to the Kursk region: “Most of the invaded territory has been liberated. As of today, the liberated area is 1,260 square kilometers, which amounts to 99.5% of the invaded territory. There are two sections left where combat action carries on: one is near Oleshnya, the other is Gornal. They are located near the Ukrainian border.” (Kremlin.ru, 04.19.25)
  • On April 19, Zelenskyy said that Ukrainian forces continued their fight to hold on to a shrinking swatch of land inside Russia’s Kursk region. He also said that Kyiv’s troops had “advanced and expanded our zone of control” in the neighboring Russian region of Belgorod. (Axios, 04.19.25)

Sunday, April 20, 2025

• Zelenskyy said that Russia had launched fresh attacks despite Putin ordering his army to suspend combat operations in Ukraine over the Easter holiday. Russian forces had also launched 26 assaults across the frontline since midnight, he added, citing a report from Ukraine’s armed forces chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. Russia in turn accused Ukraine of breaching the ceasefire, with the defense ministry on Sunday saying Ukraine’s armed forces had been “firing on Russian positions 444 times and carrying out 900 UAV strikes” after the unilateral ceasefire was declared. (FT, 04.19.25)
• On April 20, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces captured occupied Katerynivka (RM, 04.24.25)

Monday, April 21, 2025

• Russia resumed military operations in Ukraine after the expiration of the Easter truce. Putin said in televised comments that he’s willing to consider a proposal by Kyiv to avoid strikes on civilian targets and is open to bilateral talks with Ukraine on the issue. (Bloomberg, 04.21.25)
• Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces conducted a strike against Odessa City on April 21 with Geran-3 jet kamikaze drones (Russia's analogue to the Iranian Shahed-238), which reportedly has a maximum speed of 500 to 600 kilometers per hour. (ISW, 04.23.25) 

Tuesday, April 22, 2025

• Russian troops regained control of a monastery in the last village of the southwestern Kursk region still held by Ukrainian forces, state media reported, citing anonymous security sources “Our soldiers liberated the St. Nicholas Belogorsky Monastery in Gornal during fighting,” one of the sources was quoted as saying by the state-run TASS news agency. (MT/AFP, 04.22.25)

Wednesday, April 23, 2025

• On April 23 a Russian drone attack hit a bus carrying workers in the Ukrainian town of Marhanets in the Dnipropetrovsk region, killing at least nine people and injuring dozens of others, local authorities said. (RFE/RL, 04.23.25)
• Over 1,500 foreign mercenaries from 48 countries—including Nepal, Serbia, Cameroon, and France—have signed contracts to fight for Russia, despite Putin's claim that foreign fighters are unnecessary. (Istories, , 04.23.24)
• A Russian drone attack hit a bus carrying workers in the Ukrainian town of Marhanets in the Dnipropetrovsk region, killing at least nine people and injuring dozens of others, local authorities said. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned the attack, saying Russia's use of first-person view (FPV) drones against civilians has become "commonplace" in the Dnipropetrovsk and other regions. (RFE/RL, 04.24.25)

Thursday, April 24, 2025

• Russia’s attack targeted eight of Ukraine’s regions, including the Kyiv region, where it killed at least eight people and injured at least 90 Elsewhere, two people were injured in the region of Kharkiv in the east as well as another two in Zaporizhzhia in the south, while an industrial facility was damaged in Pavlohrad in the Dnipropetrovsk region in central Ukraine, without casualties. The strike also reached Zhytomyr region in the north and Khmelnytskyi in the west. Zelensky said nearly 70 missiles, including ballistic ones, and about 150 attack drones had targeted cities across the country—although Kyiv was the hardest hit. (Bloomberg, 04.24.25) (RFE/RL, 04.24.25, Meduza, 04.24.25, NYT, 04.24.25)¹
  • U.S. President Donald Trump published a social media post criticizing Russia’s Wednesday night deadly missile and drone attack on Ukraine. “I am not happy with the Russian strikes on KYIV (sic),” he wrote. “Not necessary, and very bad timing. Vladimir, STOP! 5000 soldiers a week are dying. Let’s get the Peace Deal DONE!” Russia’s attack targeted eight of Ukraine’s regions, including the Kyiv region, where it killed at least eight people and injured at least 90. (Meduza, 04.24.25)
• Authorities in southwestern Russia’s Belgorod region said a local woman was killed Thursday when a Ukrainian drone struck her home near the border. (MT/AFP, 04.24.25)
• The Russian Defense Ministry said on Telegram that its air defense had downed 87 Ukrainian drones overnight, including two over the Moscow region. (Bloomberg, 04.24.25)
• On Thursday, April 24, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces captured Kalynove (RM, 04.24.25)
• Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said Thursday that its agents shot and killed two individuals suspected of plotting a drone attack on a petrochemical facility in the Nizhny Novgorod region. (MT/AFP, 04.24.25)

Friday, April 25, 2025

• Russian attacks have killed five more people, including a child, across Ukraine on April 25 as Kyiv observes a day of mourning for the 12 people killed in Russian missile and drone strikes that hit the Ukrainian capital a day earlier The Ukrainian authorities said on Friday that a large-scale drone attack had killed three, including a child, in the eastern city of Pavlohrad. (NYT, 04.25.25, RFE/RL, 04.25.25)
• Ukraine’s Armed Forces established the 8th Airborne Assault Corps, led by Hero of Ukraine Colonel Dmytro Voloshyn, who previously commanded the 82nd Airborne Brigade. The corps includes six combat brigades with experience in anti-terrorist operations (ATO/JFO) and those formed after Russia’s 2022 invasion, per its Facebook announcement. The unit aims to strengthen airborne capabilities amid ongoing structural reforms in Ukraine’s military.” (Korrespondent.net, 04.25.25)
• Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's Ambassador to the UK, former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said: “Thanks to unmanned systems and digital technologies, the traditional and familiar types of weapons that defined the nature of war for decades have become history. They are gone. Armored vehicles, which have been the basis of offensive operations since 1915, have become defenseless against cheap drones, and therefore, their use in other types of combat is impossible today.” (Ukrainska Pravda, 04.25.25)
• Zaluzhnyi said: “As long as the enemy has the resources, forces, and means to strike at our territory and attempt offensive actions, he will do so. This is a war of attrition. Only the complete destruction of the ability to wage war, that is the military-economic potential, can put an end to this,” he said. “Gradually, as in World War I, this war entered a stupor,” he said. (Ukrainska Pravda, 04.25.25)

Military aid to Ukraine 

• Britain is likely to abandon plans to send thousands of troops to protect Ukraine because the risks are deemed “too high,” it can be revealed. In an apparent softening of plans, Britain and Europe would no longer have a ground force guarding key cities, ports and nuclear power plants to secure the peace. Instead, the focus for a security commitment to Ukraine would be on the reconstitution and rearmament of Kyiv’s army, with protection from the air and sea. (Times, 04.24.25)
• Ukraine has rapidly increased production of its NATO-caliber Bohdana howitzers, manufacturing over 20 per month in 2025, up from six in 2023. Supported by European funding, including €1 billion from frozen Russian assets, Ukraine aims to reduce reliance on foreign arms and bolster its defense industry. The initiative also benefits Europe by offering military insights and cost savings. Over 85% of the howitzer’s parts are domestically produced, showcasing growing self-sufficiency. (WP, 04.22.25)
  • A European official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to share internal deliberations, said more countries were eyeing the model of pouring money into Ukraine's defense industry instead of dispatching weapons, offering a faster route as Europe's own supplies run dry after years of funneling weapons to Kyiv. (WP,04.19.25)
• Denmark announced a new military aid package to Ukraine for artillery ammunition procurement on April 23. Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen announced that Denmark will provide an additional 317 million Danish Kroner (approximately $30.5 million) to Ukraine in 2025 to purchase artillery shells through Estonia.(ISW, 04.24.25)
• Hungary’s Viktor Orbán will lump European taxpayers with an even bigger bill for support to Ukraine if he forces the EU to lift restrictions on €210bn of frozen Russian assets, Estonia’s foreign minister has warned. (FT, 04.20.25)
• The amount of money Ukraine requires is not enormous given Europe’s wealth—perhaps 50 billion to 60 billion euros a year (some $57 billion to $68 billion) for financial and military aid, while Europe is already intending to provide €40 billion this year. (NYT, 04.24.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• The Trump administration has been engaged in a concerted effort to undo initiatives aimed at holding Russia and its leaders and allies accountable for alleged war crimes in Ukraine. Since taking office, the administration has moved to withdraw from an international group led by the European Union that was created to punish Moscow for violating international law in its invasion of Ukraine. The White House has also reduced the work of the Justice Department's War Crimes Accountability Team and dismantled a program to seize assets of sanctioned Russian oligarchs. (WP, 04.22.25)
• Switzerland adopted further Russia sanctions imposed by the European Union including widening an advertising ban on media organizations, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs said in a statement. (Bloomberg, 04.22.25)
• Rusal has threatened to sue Germany for “unlawful expropriation” after the Russian aluminium giant was ordered to pay €213mn to liquidators of the European operations of Russia’s VTB bank. (FT, 04.25.25)
• Raiffeisen Bank International AG lost its appeal of a court decision ordering it to pay more than €2 billion ($2.3 billion) in damages to a company formerly owned by sanctioned Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska. (Bloomberg, 04.24.25)
• Russia’s Foreign Ministry announced Wednesday that it banned 21 British lawmakers from entering the country in response to London’s “confrontational” stance toward Moscow. (MT/AFP, 04.24.25) 

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• During a meeting last week, U.S. officials proposed the outline of a deal that would include a full ceasefire and frozen front lines, with future Ukrainian NATO membership not included in talks to end the war. Ukraine has long insisted that NATO would be the fastest, cheapest and most effective way to protect Ukraine from future Russian attacks, but Russia views NATO membership as a nonstarter and often blames Ukraine's NATO ambitions for the war. (WP, 04.21.25)

Saturday, April 19, 2025

• The U.S. is prepared to recognize Russian control of the Ukrainian region of Crimea as part of a broader peace agreement between Moscow and Kyiv, according to people familiar with the matter. The people said a final decision on the matter hadn’t yet been taken.. (Bloomberg, 04.19.25)
  • U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in a conversation with Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, denied reports of alleged demands for Ukraine to recognize Crimea as Russian. Sikorski said this in an interview with Gazeta Wyborcza. (Korrespondent.net, 04.25.25)

Sunday, April 20, 2025

• Ukraine is under pressure to respond this week to a series of far-reaching Trump administration ideas for how to end the war in Ukraine by granting concessions to Russia, including potential U.S. recognition of Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and excluding Kyiv from joining NATO. The ideas were outlined in a confidential document presented by senior Trump administration officials to their Ukrainian counterparts in Paris, according to Western officials. The ideas presented by the U.S. in Paris also include ruling out Ukraine’s membership in NATO and designation of the territory around the nuclear reactor in Zaporizhzhia as neutral territory that could be under American control.”(WSJ, 06.20.25, Bloomberg, 04.24.25)
  • Reuters has seen the text of a set of proposals to end Russia's war in Ukraine that were presented to European officials by U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff at talks in Paris on April 17.The text of the document in full with no changes can be accessed at this link. (Reuters, 04.25.25)
  • Speaking to reporters Monday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia was satisfied by messaging from Washington at multiple levels that Ukraine will not join NATO, stating that it "coincides with our position that Ukraine should not be a member of NATO and should not have the prospect of integration into NATO." "It would be a threat to the national interests of the Russian Federation," Peskov said . (WP, 04.21.25, WSJ, 04.21.25)

Monday, April 21, 2025

• Mr. Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform on Sunday that he hoped Russia and Ukraine “will make a deal this week,” adding that the United States stood to “make a fortune” as a result. Last week, in a sign of his impatience, the president had warned that if either Moscow or Kyiv “makes it very difficult” to reach a deal to end the war, the United States could decide that “we’re just going to take a pass.” (NYT, 04.22.25)
• A U.S. proposal that that was to be presented during talks of American, European and Ukrainian officials at the level of the ministers of foreign affairs in London on April 23 would effectively freeze the frontline in the war that’s now in its fourth year, with Russia retaining de facto control of most of the other territory its forces currently occupy in Ukraine’s east and south. Ukraine’s aim of joining NATO would be off the table, too, though any agreement would have to include security guarantees for Kyiv to ensure any deal holds. (Bloomberg, 04.21.25)
• Vladimir Putin told journalists on 04.21.25: ““We have always said that we treat any peace initiative positively. We hope that the representatives of the Kiev regime will treat this the same way.” “As for the proposal not to strike at civilian infrastructure facilities, this needs to be sorted out… This is all a subject for careful study. Perhaps bilaterally, as a result of dialogue. We do not rule this out.” (Kremlin, 04.21.25)
• Vladimir Putin told journalists on 04.21.25 when asked if the Easter truce ended: ““Hostilities have resumed, we said so from the very beginning, when we declared the truce. We always have a positive attitude towards truces, which is why we came up with such an initiative. Moreover, we are talking about the bright Easter days. This is a holiday for all Christians, this is how it turned out these days: for Catholics, and for Protestants, and for Orthodox Christians. That is why we have always said that we have a positive attitude towards any peace initiatives. We hope that representatives of the Kyiv regime will have the same attitude towards this.” (Kremlin, 04.21.25)
• Russian state media amplified Kherson Oblast occupation head Vladimir Saldo's called for additional territorial concessions from Ukraine in areas to which Russia has not yet laid formal claim. Saldo said that "the segment of the [Dnipro River] that passes through Kherson, Zaporizhia, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts must be completely under [Russian] control" so as to guarantee the development of infrastructure "associated with the river." Russian forces only currently occupy positions on the east bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts. (ISW, 04.21.25)

Tuesday, April 22, 2025

• Donald Trump said: “If I can stop losing 3,000 human beings a week on average, with Russia, Ukraine, it's only because of me, nobody else could have stopped it. I think we're going to do that, by the way. (Time, 04.22.25.)
• [When asked: “Do you think peace is still possible if Putin is President?] Donald Trump said: “I think peace is possible. You say if Putin is still president? Yeah, if Putin is President. Can there be peace if Putin is President of Russia? I think with me as president, there's—possible, if very probable. If somebody else is president, no chance. [When asked: If Putin can make peace? ] Donald Trump said: “Yeah, I think Putin will. I think Putin would rather do it a different way.” [When asked: “Do you believe peace is possible if Zelensky is still President of Ukraine?”]” Donald Trump said: “Yeah, I do. He is president now and I think we’re going to make a deal.” (Time, 04.22.25.)
• [When asked: “Should Crimea go to the Russians? Should they get to keep Crimea?”] “Well, Crimea went to the Russians.” [When asked: “Would it be acceptable to you in a deal if Crimea and the four other regions that Russia has taken from Ukraine would be folded into Russia under a final accommodation?] Donald Trump said: “If Crimea will stay with Russia—we have to only talk about Crimea because that's the one that always gets mentioned. Crimea will stay with Russia. And Zelensky understands that, and everybody understands that it's been with them for a long time..” (Time, 04.22.25.)
• As of April 22, the U.S. expected Ukraine's response to a peace framework that includes U.S. recognition of Crimea as part of Russia and unofficial recognition of Russian control of nearly all areas occupied since the 2022 invasion, sources with direct knowledge of the proposal tell Axios. The one-page document the U.S. presented Ukrainian officials in Paris last week and that was to be discussed at of the April 23 meeting of Ukrainian, European and American ministers of foreign affairs and NSAs - describes this as President Trump's "final offer." The plan, which calls for he Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant to considered as Ukrainian territory but operated by the U.S., was drafted after Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff met with Putin for more than four hours last week. (Axios, RM, 04.22.25) See Table 1 for details.
• Both the Kremlin and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine suggested that they would be open to direct negotiations. (NYT, 04.22.25)
  • Mr. Zelensky said that Ukraine was “ready for any conversation” about a cease-fire that would halt strikes on civilian infrastructure . (NYT, 04.22.25)
  • Dmitri Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman, said on Tuesday that there were “nuances” in the Ukrainian proposal “that it makes sense to discuss” with Kyiv. (NYT, 04.22.25)
• Vladimir Putin reportedly offered to halt his invasion of Ukraine across the current front line as part of efforts to reach a peace deal, according to people familiar with the matter. The Russian president told Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy, during a meeting in St Petersburg earlier this month that Moscow could relinquish its claims to areas of four partly occupied Ukrainian regions that remain under Kyiv’s control if the U.S. made broader geopolitical concessions to Moscow, such as recognizing its control of Crimea and barring Ukraine from joining Nato. Under a potential deal, Ukraine would pledge not to retake Russian-occupied territory by force, while Russia would agree to halt its army’s slow advance. (FT, 04.22.25)
  • President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine told reporters on Tuesday that he was open to talks with Russia once a cease-fire was in effect, but that Ukraine would not accept any deal that recognized Moscow’s legal control of Crimea. “Ukraine will not legally recognize the occupation of Crimea,” Mr. Zelensky said at a news conference. “There’s nothing to talk about here. This is against our Constitution.” (NYT, 04.22.25)
  • Western officials told the FT that European capitals would not endorse any move by the U.S. to recognize Crimea as Russian or pressure Kyiv to agree to it, and they would hold fast to a long-held position that they would not accept anything regarding Ukraine’s sovereignty that Zelenskyy opposed. “Crimea is Ukraine,” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas told AFP on Tuesday. (FT, 04.24.25)
  • Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, told the FT: “Tense work is under way. We are talking to the Americans. The work is difficult and takes a lot of time, so it is difficult to expect immediate results, and the work cannot be done in public.” (FT, 04.22.25)
  • Though Putin introduced constitutional amendments in 2020 barring Russia from relinquishing claims to any of its territory, Konstantin Remchukov, a Kremlin-aligned newspaper editor, claimed in a column published on Sunday that Moscow could end the fighting once it had driven Ukraine’s forces out of Kursk. (FT, 04.22.25)

Wednesday, April 23, 2025

• On April 23 Trump lashed out at Zelenskyy’s stance, calling it “very harmful” to his peace efforts and “inflammatory”. “He can have Peace or, he can fight for another three years before losing the whole Country,” the U.S. president wrote on Truth Social. Trump also wrote that the Black Sea peninsula, which Russia seized from Ukraine in 2014, was “not even a point of discussion” and had been “lost years ago.” “This completely corresponds with our understanding, which we have been saying for a long time,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters when asked about Trump’s remarks. Trump argued that “Crimea was lost years ago […] and is not even a point of discussion” today. He also stated that “nobody is asking Zelensky to recognize Crimea as Russian territory.” In separate remarks on April 23 Trump told media at the White House: "I think we have a deal with Russia, and we have to get a deal with Zelensky. I thought it would be easier to deal with Zelensky, but it's been harder." (MT/AFP, 04.24.25, (Meduza, 04.24.25, FT, 04.24.25, WP, 04.24.25)
  • In response, Zelensky acknowledged that “emotions have run high today” and expressed hope that “the USA will act in line with its strong decisions,” sharing a screenshot of a press statement by Trump’s secretary of state in July 2018, Michael Pompeo, that called on Russia to end its occupation of Crimea. Zelenskiy also said he’d like to meet Donald Trump at the Vatican on Saturday where global leaders will attend the funeral of Pope Francis. (Bloomberg. 04.23.25, Meduza, 04.24.25)
  • Washington’s offer to endorse Moscow’s control of Crimea, breaking with the agreed policy of Nato, is possibly the biggest concession it has made to Moscow in recent months in its haste to strike a deal. A close ally of German chancellor-to-be Friedrich Merz said late on Wednesday that Europe could not accept the proposal. . (FT, 04.24.25)
  • The Kremlin said that it agrees with Trump’s recent statement that Ukraine “lost” Crimea years ago. The war in Ukraine would end “instantly” if Kyiv agreed to withdraw from territory it currently controls and abandon its NATO ambitions, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said in an interview with the French outlet Le Point on April 23, reiterating conditions that Ukraine and its allies have repeatedly rejected. Peskov laid out Moscow’s demands for a ceasefire, including the full recognition of Russia’s claim over four Ukrainian oblasts it partially occupies, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, neutral status for Ukraine, and an end to all Western military support.(Kyiv Independent, 04.23.25, MT/AFP, 04.24.25)
• Vice President JD Vance said the U.S. has issued a “very explicit proposal” to Russia and Ukraine on a path forward to a peace deal, adding “it’s time for them to either say yes or for the United States to walk away from this process.” “The current lines, somewhere close to them is where you’re ultimately, I think, going to draw the new lines in the conflict,” Vance told reporters in India on April 23. “It’s now time, I think, to take, if not the final step, one of the final steps—which is, at a broad level, the parties saying we’re going to stop the killing, we’re going to freeze the territorial lines at some level close to where they are today,” Vance said. He added that doing so would mean both Ukraine and Russia would have to give up some territory each side currently controls. (Bloomberg. 04.23.25, MT/AFP, 04.23.25)
• The foreign ministers of the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Ukraine have postponed planned peace talks on ending Russia’s war in Ukraine that were scheduled to take place in London on April 23, Sky News reported. The decision by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Steve Wiktoff to pull out of the April 23 meeting raised questions about the state of the negotiations. While in Paris, two European officials said, the negotiators were briefed on the Trump administration’s framework for a cease-fire deal, which includes demands that Ukraine recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea and rules out NATO membership for Ukraine. (NYT, 04.22.25, Meduza, 04.23.25)
• During talks in London on April 23, Ukraine presented five key demands for a ceasefire with Russia. First, it insists Crimea must not be recognized as Russian territory. Second, any peace deal must be based on international law, not surrender, with attention to Taiwan’s situation. Third, Ukraine wants a central role in the peace process. Fourth, it warns that Russian control of Crimea threatens broader regional security. Fifth, Ukraine opposes any limits on its military or defense industry. (Meduza, 04.25.25, Telegraph, 04.23.25)
• The sets of proposals from talks between U.S., European and Ukrainian officials in Paris on April 17 and in London on April 23 laid bare the inner workings of the shuttle diplomacy under way. The primary areas of difference in the two texts are over the sequencing for resolving questions over territory, the lifting of sanctions on Russia, security guarantees and the size of Ukraine's military. (Reuters, 04.25.25) See Table 1 for details.
• The Russians, watching from the sidelines, said the collapse of the London talks showed how far apart Ukrainian and American officials remain on the basic contours of a peace deal. "As far as we understand, it has not yet been possible to reconcile positions on some issues, which is why this meeting has not taken place yet," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday. "We continue our contacts with the Americans. We have no contacts with the Europeans; we have no contacts with the Ukrainians, either, although President [Vladimir] Putin remains open to such contacts in the interest of reconciliation." (WP, 04.23.25)

Thursday, April 24, 2025.

• Speaking to reporters after a meeting with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, Trump was asked what concessions Moscow has made so far to bring peace closer, according to The Hill. “Stopping the war, stopping from taking the whole country, pretty big concession,” he responded.(Meduza,/The Hill 04.24.25)
• Zelensky visited South Africa on Thursday for talks regarding a future peace deal but promptly cut the trip short due to the attack, the latest in a series with high civilian casualties. On Wednesday, a Russian attack on a bus carrying factory workers killed nine people in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Zelensky is increasingly insisting that a ceasefire must precede any further steps. "If Russia says it is ready for a ceasefire, then they should stop the massive strikes on Ukraine," he said. "The fact that we are ready to talk to the terrorists who have started a war on our land is already a big compromise." He repeated his demand for a full truce. “We can’t talk about red lines without an unconditional ceasefire,” Zelenskiy said. (Bloomberg, 04.24.25, WP, 04.24.25)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Thursday concurred with President Trump's assertion that talks to end the war with Ukraine were "moving in the right direction," according to an excerpt from an interview with CBS News. Lavrov said there were “several signs that we are moving in the right direction” toward a deal—while conceding that Russia still saw issues that needed to be negotiated. “The statement by the president mentions a deal, and we are ready to reach a deal, but there are still some specific points—elements of this deal which need to be fine-tuned,” Lavrov said. (Bloomberg, 04.24.25,(Axios, 04.25.25)

Friday, April 25, 2024.

• Vladimir Putin and Steve Witkoff had a 3-hour conversation in the Kremlin on April 25 in what “allowed Russia and the United States to further bring their positions closer together, not only on Ukraine but also on a number of other international issues,” according to ,Putin’s foreign policy advisor Yuri Ushakov. Shortly after the Moscow meeting ended, Trump said he heard that his envoy and Putin had "a pretty good meeting,” according to Reuters. (RM, 04.25.25)
  • The U.S. was to demand that Russia accept Ukraine’s right to develop its own, adequately equipped, army and defense industry as part of a peace agreement, according to people familiar with the matter, pushing back on Russia’s insistence that the country largely demilitarize as a condition to end the war. Witkoff was to raise the issue with Putin. (Bloomberg, 04.24.25)
  • Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund and Special Representative of President Vladimir Putin for investment and economic cooperation with foreign countries, has said that the latest round of negotiations between Putin and Witkoff was productive. ". We are making progress," Dmitriev wrote on X. (TASS, 04.25.25)
• U.S. President Donald Trump said Friday morning that he thinks Ukraine and Russia are “coming along,” reiterating that peace was “pretty close.” “No deadline... I just want to do it as fast as possible,” Trump told reporters on the South Lawn of the White House as he departed for his first overseas trip to attend Pope Francis’ funeral in Rome. . And that’s what my aim is,” he said. He went on to add: “I want to save 5,000 young men. They happen to be mostly Ukrainian, Russian—5,000 young Ukrainian and Russian men. And that’s a big honor if I can do it.” (Kyiv Post, 04.25.25)
• Trump is confident that Russian President Vladimir Putin will listen to him and refrain from launching further strikes on Ukraine, according to the Clash Report. "I think Putin will listen to me on stopping strikes in Ukraine," Trump said. (RBC.ua, 04.25.25)
• La Repubblica wrote that Ukraine allegedly reached out to Italy and other key EU allies with a proposal to organize a summit on the Russian-Ukrainian war amid the arrival of world leaders for the funeral of Pope Francis. Kyiv has not officially commented on this information. Reportedly, this would not be just a bilateral Trump-Zelenskyy summit, but in a "Quint" format, including the U.S., Italy, France, the United Kingdom, and likely Germany. U.S. President Donald Trump will arrive in Rome on the evening of April 25(RBC.ua, 04.25.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• [When asked: “Should Ukraine give up any hope of ever joining NATO?”] Donald Trump said: “I don’t think they’ll ever be able to join NATO. I think that's been—from day one, I think that's been, that's I think what caused the war to start was when they started talking about joining NATO. If that weren't brought up, there would have been a much better chance that it wouldn’t have started.” (Time, 04.22.25.)
• Russia said it was pleased with a Trump administration proposal to rule out Ukraine joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization as a way to end the war but showed no urgency in reaching a deal. “We have heard from Washington at various levels that Ukraine's membership in NATO is out of the question," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Monday. "This is something that satisfies us and coincides with our position." (Wall Street Journal, 04.21.25)
• European intelligence agencies believe that Russia’s GRU military intelligence service was behind a series of cargo package explosions at airports in Germany, Poland and Britain last summer, German media reported Wednesday. (MT/AFP, 04.24.25)
• Two Swedish fighter jets under NATO command were dispatched Thursday to intercept a Russian reconnaissance aircraft approaching Polish airspace over the Baltic Sea, Sweden’s armed forces said. (MT/AFP, 04.24.25)
• Spain will increase its military spending this year to meet NATO guidelines, the country’s prime minister said. Last year, as a record number of NATO member countries increased their spending to meet the bloc’s 2% threshold, Spain spent 1.28% of its gross domestic product on defense, according to figures published by NATO. (NYT, 04.24.25)
• Czech lawmakers backed changes to budget rules that will allow the fiscally conservative government to ramp up defense spending in response to security risks stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The cabinet last month endorsed a plan to raise defense spending by 0.2% of gross domestic product per year and reach 3% by 2030, from the 2% currently required by NATO. (Bloomberg, 04.25.25)
• Estonia plans to build a military base in the city of Narva, in the Baltic nation’s latest move to bolster security along its sensitive border with Russia. (Bloomberg. 04.23.25)
• Lithuania’s city of Vilnius unveiled a wartime evacuation plan on Wednesday as the Baltic nation says it is bracing for potential threats from Russia amid its ongoing invasion of Ukraine The plan outlines three primary evacuation routes heading west, “as the enemy has historically come from the east,” Vilnius Mayor Valdas Benkunskas said at a press conference. (MT/AFP, 04.24.25)
• The Danish defense intelligence service said Russia sought to stir up tensions between the U.S. and Denmark by spreading fake news about Greenland earlier this year. (Bloomberg, 04.25.25)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Moscow and Beijing have reached an unprecedented level of cooperation and aim to further enhance dialogue along the lines of security councils, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu stated in an interview with TASS. "Today, Russia-China relations are at their peak in history. We are strategic partners," he emphasized. (TASS, 04.25.25)
• Poland’s Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski called on China to step up diplomatic efforts to end the fighting in Ukraine, saying that the goal of Kyiv’s allies is to achieve a just and lasting peace. Sikorski urged China to cease its exports of dual-use products to Moscow, including drones and navigation equipment. Without Beijing’s help, Russia’s economy would have collapsed by now, said Poland’s top diplomat, who advised Ukraine’s backers “not to turn a blind eye” to the Kremlin’s Asian allies. (Bloomberg. 04.23.25)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• The deployment of NATO troops in new Russian territories still controlled by Ukraine can trigger World War III, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu warned. “Sober-minded politicians in Europe understand that the implementation of such a scenario can lead to a direct clash between NATO and Russia and to World War III," he told TASS commenting on the plans of the so-called coalition of the willing to send troops to Ukraine under the guise of peacekeepers. (TASS, 04.25.25)
• Moscow is prepared to resume nuclear arms control talks with the United States, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu told state media. “The Trump administration is currently demonstrating its readiness to resume dialogue on issues of strategic stability,” Shoigu told TASS in. Shoigu said any new arms control agreement would need to account for what he called growing threats to Russia, including NATO’s expansion, the U.S. global missile defense system and Washington’s deployment of intermediate- and short-range ground-based missiles. He also pointed to French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent proposal to extend France’s nuclear deterrent to European allies as a development that must be factored into any future treaty. (MT/AFP, 04.24.25, Bloomberg, 04.24.25)
  • Russia’s recently revised nuclear doctrine spells out in detail under what conditions the country can use nuclear weapons, and is available for anyone to read, Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday. "Our doctrine clearly outlines the conditions under which nuclear weapons may be used. This doctrine is available to the public," Peskov said at a press briefing commenting on Russian Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu’s statement made earlier that Russia reserved the right to use nuclear weapons in case of Western aggression. . (TASS, 04.25.25)
• Russian Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu has not rued out that Russia may resume nuclear tests if the United States does the same. "Our position on this matter depends on the United States’ actions in this area," he said in an interview with TASS when asked whether Russia could resume nuclear tests. "Now, warranty periods for some types of their nuclear munitions are expiring and the development of new types of weapons is underway. This may push Washington toward resuming nuclear tests." (TASS, 04.25.25)
• Threats to Belarus continue to exist, so, the deployment of Russia’s Oreshnik intermediate missiles in its territory is quite justified, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu told TASS. (TASS, 04.25.25)
• [When asked: “You’ve talked about improving relations with Moscow. Are you pursuing negotiations with them on issues other than Ukraine?...Like nuclear weapons stockpiles or testing?”] Donald Trump said: “No...But if a deal has happened, I can see us doing business with Ukraine and with Russia as a country.” (Time, 04.22.25.)\
• The costs of operating and modernizing America's nuclear forces through 2034 are projected to soar to $946 billion, 25% higher than a 2023 estimate, a report by the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office said on Thursday. (Reuters, 04.24.25)

Counterterrorism:

• Russia’s special services have identified and detained 45 people for involvement in the Crocus City Hall attack, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu told TASS in an interview. . (TASS, 04.25.25)

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• Russian hackers targeted a public facility in the Netherlands last year in the first known cyberattack on the country’s infrastructure, the Dutch military intelligence service said Monday. “As far as known, this is the first time that such a sabotage attack has been carried out against such a digital control system in the Netherlands,” Vice Admiral and MIVD director Peter Reesink said. (MT/AFP, 04.22.25)
• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth created a Signal chat with his wife, his personal lawyer and others, and posted sensitive military information into it, people familiar with the matter said Sunday, a revelation that has added to the increasing scrutiny of the novice cabinet member. He also reportedly had Signal messaging app installed on an office computer (WP, 04,21.25, 04.23.25)
• Regular internet use in Russia rose to 83% in March 2025, with 76% accessing it daily, driven by growth among middle-aged and older users as youth adoption nears saturation, per Levada Center data. VKontakte remains the top social platform (50%), followed by Telegram (42%). The survey highlights generational divides in digital engagement, with older demographics gradually closing the gap while younger users maintain near-universal online activity. (Levada, 04.24.25)
• U.S. efforts to help Ukraine protect itself against Russian cyberattacks have been curtailed amid wide-ranging disruption by the Trump administration, raising concerns about the erosion of vital defenses against Kremlin-backed hackers. Dozens of people located in Ukraine and the U.S.—who had provided technical assistance on cybersecurity at hundreds of facilities across the war-torn country—have had their contracts cancelled or paused In the last five years or so, the U.S. Agency for International Development alone has committed more than $200 million for cybersecurity aid to Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 04.25.25)

Energy exports from CIS:

• The White House is debating whether to lift sanctions on Russia’s Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline and potentially other Russian assets in Europe as part of discussions on ending the war between Russia and Ukraine, five people familiar with the discussions told Politico. White House special envoy Steve Witkoff has been the main proponent of lifting sanctions,. (Politico, 04.24.25)
• Russia downgraded its outlook for exports this year and lowered expectations for the price for its oil, developments that may force the government to dip into its wealth fund to cover wartime spending. The Economy Ministry forecast a 5.3% decline in exports to 410.6 billion rubles ($5 billion), down from an earlier projection of 445 billion rubles, the Interfax news service reported on Monday. The updated macroeconomic outlook also included a lower price for Urals oil of $56 a barrel, versus $69.70 seen earlier. (Bloomberg, 04.21.25,. (WSJ, 04.20.25)
• Russia’s oil producers have been drilling wells at a pace not seen in at least five years as the nation readies for both a loosening of OPEC+ output limits and the possibility of relief from some international sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. The level of activity, which is also more than a third above the pre-war level, means Russia’s total capacity for producing crude and a light oil called condensate is 11 million to 11.5 million barrels a day, virtually unchanged from 2016, said Ronald Smith from Emerging Markets Oil & Gas Consulting Partners LLC. (Bloomberg, 04.25.25)

Climate change:

• Scientists developed a model linking 111 fossil fuel firms to $28 trillion in global heat damages (1991–2020), per a Nature study, aiming to bolster climate liability lawsuits. Researchers claim the tool quantifies companies’ contributions to extreme heat impacts like crop losses. Saudi Aramco is on the hook for $2.05 trillion in economic losses from extreme heat from 1991 to 2020. Russia's Gazprom is responsible for $2 trillion, Chevron for $1.98 trillion, ExxonMobil for $1.91 trillion and BP for $1.45 trillion. (WP, 04.25.25)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• The Moscow Times reported on April 21 that five current Russian government officials, including two diplomats and three sources close to the Kremlin who are employees of three major state-owned companies, stated that the Kremlin is looking for economic incentives to "hold...Trump's attention." (ISW, 04.23.25)
  • Russia has recently offered the United States economic incentives that are unrelated to Russia’s war in Ukraine, likely as part of efforts to extract concessions from the United States about Russia’s war in Ukraine. Russian Presidential Aide Nikolai Patrushev, for example, called for the United States and Russia to jointly work to solve problems in the Arctic in an April 21 article in Russian business outlet Kommersant. (ISW, 04.23.25)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Trump said Wednesday that he could meet Putin shortly after his upcoming trip to the Middle East in May. The White House announced this week that Trump will travel to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates between May 13 and 16. When asked whether he and Putin might meet in Saudi Arabia, the U.S. president replied: “It’s possible, but most likely not. I think we’ll meet with him shortly thereafter,” (MT/AFP, 04.24.25, CNN, Meduza, 04.24.25)
• Moscow is ready for dialogue with Washington but will not rely only on words, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu told TASS. The [U.S. President] Donald Trump administration is taking certain steps to restore bilateral relations with Russia. The first steps on this track reveal their practical attitude. The United States is demonstrating a realistic view on thing, refusing from many stereotypes of their predecessors, who, in fact, have led to the crisis of the entire system of international relation, provoked the Ukrainian and other regional crises," he said. "We welcome such an approach and are ready for reciprocal steps. But as our Chinese friends say, a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. Today, we can state that the first steps have been made by both sided, Russian and American," he added. (TASS, 04.25.25)
• Michael Gloss, an American citizen and the son of CIA Deputy Director for Digital Innovation Juliane Gallina Gloss, was killed in Ukraine while fighting in the Russian military last year. (Istories, Meduza, 04.25.25.)
• A Moscow court reduced the drug trafficking prison sentence for Russian-born U.S. citizen Robert Woodland by three years. A Moscow court sentenced Woodland to 12 years and six months in prison last July. A judge rejected an appeal of that sentence in November. On Tuesday, a judge ruled to reduce Woodland’s sentence to nine years and six months for an unknown reason, his lawyer Stanislav Kshevitsky told Reuters. (MT/AFP, 04.22.25)
• A federal court judge in Washington ordered the Trump administration to reverse its efforts aimed at forcing the closure of Voice of America (VOA), which was shut down last month in a move the broadcaster had called illegal. (RFE/RL, 04.23.25) 

• Two senior IMEMO officials, Alexander Dynkin and Feodor Voitolovsky, visited the United States this month and sought to present a more friendly Russian face during meetings with academics, according to a person familiar with the visit. "They communicated a willingness to compromise" and sought to portray Ukraine as only one small element in the discussion in the U.S.-Russia relationship, the person said. (WP, 04.25.25)

• The artist behind the portrait of Trump that Putin gifted to the U.S. president last month was Russian painter Nikas Safronov. (Meduza, 04.23.25)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• In its revised outlook IMF expects Russia’s GDP growth to exceed that of “Advanced Economies” in 2025 (1.5% vs 1.4%), but this growth rate is  significantly slower than that of “Emerging Market and Developing Economies” (3.7%) and it will slow down to 0.9% in 2026. (RM, 04.24.25) See the table below.
• Russia’s Central Bank held its key interest rate at 21% on Friday, maintaining borrowing costs at a historic high despite mounting concerns from businesses and banks that the economy is slowing. The central bank kept its forecasts for end-of-the-year inflation and 2025 gross domestic product growth at 7%–8% and 1%-–%, respectively (MT/AFP, Bloomberg, 04.25.25)
• Putin on Monday signed into law a bill expanding the criteria for designating individuals and organizations as “foreign agents,” targeting Russians connected with foreign government agencies and international organizations in which Russia is not a member. (MT/AFP, 04.21.25).
• A Moscow court has sentenced exiled Russian journalist Kirill Martynov to six years in prison in absentia for involvement in an “undesirable” organization, Novaya Gazeta Europe, where he serves as editor-in-chief, reported Tuesday. (MT/AFP, 04.22.25)
• Russian authorities have identified someone as a member of the “international LGBT movement” for the first time since the country’s Supreme Court designated the non-existent organization as “extremist,” the legal rights group Perviy Otdel said Monday. According to Perviy Otdel, Russia’s Justice Ministry identified LGBTQ+ journalist Vadim Vaganov as an “activist” from the “international LGBT movement” during a court appeal over his designation as a “foreign agent.” (MT/AFP, 04.21.25)
• A Moscow court has sentenced exiled philanthropist Boris Zimin to nine years in prison in absentia on fraud charges linked to the sale of shares in the Russian car-sharing company BelkaCar, the court’s press service said Tuesday. (MT/AFP, 04.22.25)
• Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has appointed his 17-year-old son Adam to serve as secretary of the North Caucasus republic’s security council. (MT/AFP, 04.23.25)

Defense and aerospace:

• The global arms race has entered a new phase with the advent of hypersonic weapons, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu said. "An arms race. Obviously, an arms race has begun. In fact, it never stopped. It simply evolved into a new phase because first, conventional weapons appeared, then nuclear weapons were developed begetting new delivery means for these weapons and giving birth to strategic missile troops, naval nuclear forces, and so on," he said at a plenary meeting of the Security Council’s expert board. (TASS, 04.25.25)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Russian Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu told TASS in an interview that updates to the national security strategy are currently in the works. "The array of challenges and threats that Russia is facing today, the recent aggravation of its relations with the West is not something accidental. This is an objective process, driven by the historical process. Remember, the president of Russia warned about such a development during the 2007 Munich conference," Shoigu said. (TASS, 04.25.25)
• Russia remains cautious about the drug crime situation, yet authorities are committed to intensifying their efforts to combat this growing threat, Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu told TASS in an interview. “Currently, approximately 443,000 individuals are registered as drug addicts, including 4,000 minors. In 2024, law enforcement agencies documented 193,000 crimes linked to drug trafficking - an increase of 3.7% compared to the previous year. Crimes related to drug sales rose by 7%, totaling 135,000 incidents." (TASS, 04.25.25)
• A car exploded late Friday morning in the courtyard of an apartment building in Balashikha, a town just outside Moscow. According to the Russian Investigative Committee, the blast killed Major General Yaroslav Moskalik, deputy chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the Russian military’s General Staff. (Meduza, 04.25.25)
• A Russian military court on Thursday sentenced former Major General Ivan Popov to five years in prison on fraud charges and rejected his request to return to the front lines in Ukraine. Popov, who commanded Russia’s 58th Combined Arms Army, was arrested in May 2024 for allegedly misappropriating $1.5 million worth of metal intended to reinforce defense structures in Russian-occupied Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 04.24.25)
• A court in Russia's Sverdlovsk region has sentenced a man to 12 years in a high-security penal colony for donating about $25 to the Ukrainian military, the independent Mediazona news website reported Monday. (MT/AFP, 04.21.25)

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Putin on Monday praised the late Pope Francis as a “defender” of humanism and justice and lauded his efforts to foster dialogue between the Catholic and Orthodox churches. “Pope Francis enjoyed great international respect as a devoted servant of Christian teachings, a wise religious and state leader, as well as a steadfast defender of the highest ideals of humanism and justice,” read Putin’s statement, which the Kremlin published shortly after the Vatican announced the Pope’s passing. (MT/AFP, 04.21.25)
• Putin met with Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq Al Said in Moscow on Tuesday to discuss expanding trade ties and a potential Arab League summit in Russia. (MT/AFP, 04.22.25)
• Rafał Trzaskowski, the pro-EU frontrunner for Poland’s presidential election on May 18, 2025, is counting on voters’ long-standing fear of Russia to boost his campaign against nationalist rivals who are struggling to reconcile their support for Donald Trump with the U.S. president’s pro-Moscow leanings. (FT, 04.21.25)
• Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said Friday that it arrested a Romanian citizen on suspicion of spying for Ukraine by sharing the locations of Russian air defense systems. (MT/AFP, 04.25.25)
• On April 16, 2025, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service issued a head-turning press release warning that “Eurofascism” has returned and again become “the common enemy of Moscow and Washington.” The text appeared on the agency’s official website with a Soviet-era propaganda poster edited to depict European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as Adolf Hitler. (Meduza, 04.18.25)

Ukraine:

• Zelenskiy said that lawyers representing Ukraine, and the U.S. continue to work on the bilateral agreement on natural resources, which has yet to be ratified by the Ukrainian legislature, Zelenskiy said. The Ukrainian leader added that he was not aware of “any other steps on finalization” of the deal, a longstanding demand of Trump. (Bloomberg, 04.23.25)
• Ukraine said on Thursday that it had failed to reach a deal with holders of $2.6bn of its debt, in a blow to its hopes of securing a restructuring ahead of a payment deadline next month. Last month the IMF said that “if left untreated”, the warrants “constitute an important risk” for debt sustainability even after a $15.5bn bailout by the fund and a restructuring of more than $20bn of bonds last year. (FT, 04.24.25)
• Ukrainian authorities said Tuesday that at least 153 million hryvnias – roughly $4 million – were stolen from Kyiv’s city budget during the construction of the Podilsky Bridge, according to findings by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and the Bureau of Economic Security (BEB).. (Kyiv Post, 04.22.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping signed a statement on the establishment of comprehensive strategic partnership in Beijing on Wednesday. (Interfax, 04.23.25)
• No significant developments.

Quotable and notable:

• “There is not a single Ukrainian politician who would vote to legalize the occupation of Ukrainian territories,” said Kostyantyn Yeliseyev, former presidential deputy chief of staff. “For members of Parliament, it would be worse than political suicide,” he said. (NYT, 04.24.25)
• “No Ukrainian president will ever have the authority to recognize Crimea as it was seized by force as part of Russia,” said Oleksandra Matviichuk, a Ukrainian human rights lawyer who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2022. (NYT,04.24.25)

Useful data:

(Real GDP, annual percent change, source: IMF)

Footnotes

1. Zelenskyy also stated that the missile used in a Kyiv strike contained 116 foreign-made components, ‘mostly from U.S. companies,’ blaming lax sanctions on Russia and North Korea for enabling arms proliferation. He emphasized modern wars rapidly involve multiple actors, requiring collective defense efforts. Zelenskyy’s remarks underscore calls for tighter global controls on dual-use technology and unified pressure to curb Russia’s access to foreign-made weapon parts.” (RBC.ua, 04.25.25)

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10.00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Photo credit: Kremlin.ru, Kristina Kormilitsyna, MIA "Russia Today."