Find past issues in the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card archive. 

April 22 update: Russia gained a spare 40 square miles in Ukraine since April 15, 2025, and Ukrainian forces have almost completed their evacuation of Russia's Kursk region: Ukraine's forces now control only 5 square miles of Russian territory there. Meanwhile, Russian forces dedicated to reclaiming Kursk have continued into Ukraine, and are now closing in on the Ukrainian village of Yunakivka. Russia has been losing more armored vehicles in combat this year than Ukraine, but it has been doing so at a slower rate, according to Oryx. The number of tanks and other armored vehicles lost by Ukraine in combat went from 3,685 on Jan. 7, 2025 to 4,397 on April 22, 2025 (19% increase) while the number of tanks and other armored vehicles lost by Russia over the same time went from 11,462 to 12,530 (9% increase).

Who's Gaining and Who's Losing What?

Territorial Control (figures as of April 22, 2025)

For a higher-resolution image, click here (full screen button in top right).

Report Card*

Change in Russia’s control of Ukrainian territory and changes in Ukraine’s control of Russian territory

(Based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.)

1. Since Feb. 24, 2022:
   1. Russia: +27,363 square miles. 12% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to half the size of New York state).¹
2. Total area of all Ukrainian territory Russia presently controls, including Crimea and parts of Donbas Russia had seized prior to the full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022:
   1. Russia: +43,988 square miles. 19% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to the U.S. state of Ohio.)
3. In past month (March 25–April 22, 2025): Russia gained 166 square miles. (Area equivalent to about 1 ½ Nantucket islands.)²
4. In past week: Russia gained 40 square miles (the equivalent of about 2 Manhattan islands)—a slow down as compared to the previous week’s 50 square miles. In Russia’s Kursk region, Ukraine gave up 14 square miles of control: down to only 5 square miles; nearly concluding its complete withdrawal from Russia.   

Russian net territorial control in Ukraine by month: February 2022–March 2025. (Also based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.)

Military casualties  

1. Russia: More than 790,000 killed or injured, according to an April 2025 estimate by Cavoli.³ 48,000 missing.
2. Ukraine: 400,000 killed or injured, according to a January 2025 estimate by Zelensky.⁴ 35,000 missing.

Civilian fatalities

1. Russia: 652 killed.⁵
2. Ukraine: 12,910 killed.

Military vehicles and equipment⁶

1. Russia: 21,374 lost.
   1. Tanks and armored vehicles: 12,530.
   2. Aircraft: 305.
   3. Naval vessels: 22.⁷
2. Ukraine: 8,633 lost.
   1. Tanks and armored vehicles: 4,397.
   2. Aircraft: 183.⁸
   3. Naval vessels: 35.⁹

Citizens displaced

1. Russia:
   1. 800,000 left Russia for economic or political reasons, 0.6% of Russian population.
   2. 112,000 were displaced in Russia’s Kursk region during Ukraine’s incursion in August 2024–March 2025.
2. Ukraine: 10.2 million displaced Ukrainians, 23% of Ukrainian pre-invasion population of 44 million.
   1. Internally displaced: 3.7 million.
   2. International refugees: 6.5 million.

Economic impact¹⁰

1. Russia’s economic growth: 5.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)
   1. 1.6% GDP growth forecast for 2025.
   2. Budget deficit in 2024: 1.7% of GDP.
   3. Russian ruble: 0.01233 U.S. dollars. +4% since the invasion.
   4. 3-year bond yield: 16.4%.
2. Ukraine’s economic growth (negative): -22.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)
   1. 2.5% GDP growth forecast for 2025.
   2. Budget deficit in 2024: 20.4% of GDP, excluding grants.
   3. Ukrainian hryvnia: 0.02417 U.S. dollars. -26% since the invasion.
   4. 3-year bond yield: 24.8%

Infrastructure

1. Russia:
   1. A journalistic investigation estimated in March 2024 that Ukrainian strikes had rendered facilities which accounted for 1/6^th of the production of gasoline and diesel fuels in Russia non-operational.
   2. A journalistic investigation estimated in March 2025 that Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s energy sector have caused at least 60 billion rubles ($714 million) in damage.
2. Ukraine:
   1. Ukraine's extensive transmission infrastructure has suffered severe damage in the war, with capacity falling from 56 GW to an estimated 9 GW by the end of 2024.
   2. Some 64%, or 36 out of Ukraine’s 25 GW electricity generating capacity destroyed or occupied as of 2024.
   3. Ukraine had lost 80% of its thermal capacity due to Russian attacks as of September 2024.
   4. Ukraine relied for 2/3rds of its electricity generation on three functioning Soviet-era NPPs, which it still controls, as of 2024.

Popular support

1. Russia: 58% support peace negotiations.
2. Ukraine: 51% support peace negotiations.

Other criteria which may be even more important (about which we continue to search for reliable indicators):

1. Ammunition supply
2. Foreign military aid
3. Force generation
4. Military leadership
5. Training
6. Morale
7. Control of strategic locations
8. Information war: with U.S./Europe; with world.

Footnotes

1. According to Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group’s map, as of April 22, 2025, Russian forces occupied a total 112,616 square kilometers of Ukrainian land (43,481square miles), which constituted 18.7% of Ukrainian territory.
2. In the preceding 30 days, Russian forces made a gain of 232 square kilometers (90 square miles), according to an April 15, 2025 estimate by The Economist.

3. Here are more estimates of Russian servicemen killed and wounded [in chronological order]:

   (a) 600,000 killed or injured, according to Trump’s December 2024 estimate.

   (b) 1,000,000 killed, according to Trump’s January 2025 estimate.

   (c) More than 750,000 killed or injured, according to a March 2025 estimate by DNI/U.S. intelligence community.

4. Here are more estimates of Ukrainian servicemen killed and wounded [in chronological order]:

   (a) 400,000 killed or injured, according to Trump’s December 2024 estimate.

   (b) 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and 370,000 wounded, according to Zelenskyy’s December 2024 estimate.

   (c) 700,000 killed, according to Trump’s January 2025 estimate.

   (d) “Millions” killed in the war, according to Trump’s April 2025 estimate.

5. This estimate was given by Russia’s Investigative Committee in March 2025.
6. Oryx, “Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” Oryx (blog), https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html; “The Military Balance 2022,” IISS, https://www.iiss.org/publications/the-military-balance/the-military-balance-2022; Oryx, “List Of Aircraft Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html; Oryx, “List Of Naval Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-naval-losses-during-2022.html.
7. Not being updated as of 2025.
8. Ukraine lost one F-16 in April 2025.
9. Not being updated as of 2025.
10. International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and Russian estimates. “Russia and Ukraine 3-Year Bond Yield,” Investing.com, https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/russia-3-year-bond-yield; World Bank Group, “Europe and Central Asia Economic Update,” https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/94bdc078-9c64-4833-992a-fda7b3d1a640/content; World Bank, “Russian Federation MPO,” https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/d5f32ef28464d01f195827b7e020a3e8-0500022021/related/mpo-rus.pdf; Trading Economics, “Russia 3-Year Bond Yield,”  https://tradingeconomics.com/ruge3y:gov ; World Bank, “The World Bank in Ukraine,” https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ukraine/overview#3; https://www.exchange-rates.org/exchange-rate-history/rub-usd-2024-11-01.

*This card was produced by RM staff, and Avoiding Great Power War Research Assistant Maryana Shnitser.