7 Things to Know

1. The U.S. confirmed this week that it secretly sent long-range missile systems known as ATACMS to Ukraine, with the weapons arriving in the country this month. U.S. President Joe Biden reversed course on a decision to withhold the weapons that some feared could lead to an escalation in the war with Russia partly due to Russia’s recently increased attacks on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure, as well as the Kremlin’s use of North Korean ballistic missiles, according to national security adviser Jake Sullivan, FT reports. The Kremlin said April 25 that Ukraine's access to long-range weapons would not fundamentally change the outcome of the conflict. "The United States is directly involved in this conflict. It is on the road to increasing the range of the weapons systems it already supplies," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
2. On April 24, Biden signed a $95 billion national security package—$61 billion of it marked for Ukraine—into law, clearing the way for the U.S. to quickly resume arms shipments for Kyiv, Bloomberg reports. “I’m making sure the shipments start right away. In the next few hours—literally in a few hours—we are going to begin sending equipment to Ukraine for air defense munitions, artillery for rocket systems and armored vehicles,” Biden said April 24 at the White House. However, Ukrainian officials, soldiers and military analysts told FT that the delivery of U.S. aid is unlikely to dramatically alter Ukraine’s situation on the frontline. Despite rapid shipment, the aid will not begin to affect the situation on the frontline for several weeks, during which the frontline situation is likely to continue to deteriorate for Ukraine, according to ISW. The package “does not contain a silver bullet,” according to one senior Ukrainian official, so it “will help to slow down the Russian advance, but not stop it.” The aid will “buy us ... about one year,” according to an estimate by Ukraine’s Frontelligence Insight analytical group cited in FT.
3. In the past month, Russian forces have gained 35 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces have re-gained 2 square miles, according to the April 23 issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov sees tougher days ahead, with “a difficult period … mid-May, early June.” While Zelenskyy admitted that his country “did lose the initiative” while awaiting U.S. military assistance, in an interview with NBC, he said he expects weapons to arrive “in time,” allowing Ukraine’s forces to "repel the enemy, and then defeat the plans of the Russian Federation for full-scale counteroffensive actions in June."
4. Vladimir Putin will visit China in May, according to AP, but no other details have been announced as of April 26. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Xi Jinping this week to discuss a variety of issues, with Blinken’s harshest criticisms reserved for Beijing’s support of Russia in Ukraine, according to Bloomberg. China is the top supplier of military machine tools and a compound used in munitions and rocket propellant, Blinken said, adding that “Russia would struggle to sustain its assault on Ukraine without China’s support.” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg also had a warning for Beijing: China must stop supporting Russia's war in Ukraine if it wants to enjoy good relations with the West, he said April 25.
5. “There is no basis whatsoever for an arms control and strategic stability dialogue with the United States in the face of a total hybrid war being waged against our country,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. “This agenda cannot be artificially separated from the general international segment and be considered in isolation from other aspects of interstate relations, as Washington is seeking to present,” Lavrov stated this week at a nonproliferation conference in Moscow. Meanwhile, U.S. intelligence has confirmed that Russia remains in compliance with New START caps as of the end of 2023, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Mallory Stewart said. 
6. National security advisors and senior officials from the G-7 and the so-called Global South are set to meet in Doha this weekend to discuss Ukraine’s proposal for a peace settlement, Bloomberg reports. The meeting is part of a round of talks preparing the ground for a high-level summit that Switzerland is due to host in June. Russia has not been invited to the Doha gathering and whether China will attend remains unclear. 
7. The manufacturing purchasers’ managers index (PMI), a key reading of business confidence, has reached its highest level in almost 18 years in Russia, according to The Bell.

4 Ideas to Explore

1. The delivery of U.S. aid is unlikely to dramatically alter Ukraine’s situation on the frontline, Ukrainian officials, soldiers and military analysts told FT after the U.S. House of Representatives approved a $60 billion military aid package for Kyiv on April 20. The package “does not contain a silver bullet,” according to one senior Ukrainian official, so it “will help to slow down the Russian advance, but not stop it.” The aid will “buy us ... about one year,” according to an estimate by Ukraine’s Frontelligence Insight analytical group cited in FT. Should the Senate pass the aid bill on April 23, the U.S. provisions will be in transit to Ukraine by the end of the week, but it will not begin to affect the situation on the frontline for several weeks, during which the frontline situation is likely to continue to deteriorate for Ukraine, according to ISW. 
2. Eye-opening intelligence briefings, the counsel of House committee chairs, the realization that the GOP would never unite on Ukraine, his faith and even his son’s acceptance to a military academy are among the multiple factors that shaped House’s GOP Speaker Mike Johnson’s decision to put the $60 billion military aid package for Kyiv to a vote in spite of the risk of being ousted by his GOP colleagues, according to WP and NYT. Johnson—who in pre-speaker times had voted against funding for Ukraine—himself attributed his turnabout in part to the briefings he had received from CIA director William Burns and others[1] on the status of the war in Ukraine and the global consequences of inaction, according to WP,  NYT and CNN. At one of the most impactful briefings earlier this year, Burns sought to impress upon Johnson how rapidly Ukraine was running out of ammunition, according to NYT. The briefings left a lasting impression, convincing Johnson that the fate of Western democracy was on his shoulders, according to CNN. “I really do believe the intel and the briefings that we got,” Johnson said. “I think Vladimir Putin would continue to march through Europe if he were allowed. I’d rather send bullets to Ukraine than American boys,” he was quoted by Bloomberg as saying. While neither Johnson nor Burns disclosed the contents of their conversations, it is known that Burns has publicly warned that Russia may engage in hybrid warfare against NATO. In an April 18 speech, Burns warned that “there is a very real risk that the Ukrainians could lose on the battlefield by the end of 2024” if the U.S. doesn’t resume military aid to Ukraine soon. Once Ukraine is defeated, “I don’t think Putin’s ambitions would stop [on Ukraine]. He is also able to use what he calls ‘hybrid warfare,’ a combination of conventional military threats and efforts to undermine countries, either in NATO or on his borders,” Burns said, singling out Moldova as one country vulnerable to such a combination. RM has recently published a compilation of forecasts by European and NATO officials on when Russia may attack NATO after and if it defeats Ukraine. We found no such forecasts by Burns, however. Putin has denied such designs, and some Western and other experts have expressed doubt that he would make a move against a member of the alliance.
3. What would it take for Ukraine to win, and what would a Russian victory look like?  Ukraine could succeed in liberating half or more of its occupied territory if Western aid keeps flowing, the Ukrainian army’s personnel ranks are replenished and the effort to breach Russian defenses focuses on a “small section of the front line,” according to a commentary by Brookings’ Michael O’Hanlon in WP. To turn the tide of the war, the West must also ramp up defense production and “go after Russian oil,” according to CSIS’ Max Bergmann. Should Ukraine fail to turn the tide, however, even a partial Russian victory “would create a rump Ukrainian state with a broken economy, while Russia could grow stronger with greater natural resources, industrial strength and agricultural wealth,” Seth Jones of CSIS warns. It would also stoke the appetites of Russia’s “allies in China and Iran, and eviscerate U.S. and North Atlantic Treaty Organization credibility and deterrence,” he writes in WSJ.
4. Stephen Kotkin argues there are five possible scenarios for a fragile Russia’s evolution: (a) France; (b) Retrenchment; (c) Chinese vassal; (d) North Korea; (e) Chaos. Of these scenarios, Russia’s retrenchment represents the best chance for peace, Kotkin writes in FA. To create conditions for this retrenchment scenario to materialize, “Western policymakers and civil society organizations should welcome and reward those Russians who want to deconflate Putin and Russia but not necessarily embrace Jeffersonian ideals,” according to Kotkin, a senior fellow at Stanford University. “It would be a mistake to wait for and reward only a pro-Western Russian government,” he warns.

April 23 update:

April 23 update: No significant territorial changes. Biden signed the $60 billion aid bill for Ukraine after months of Congressional debate and over a year without new US aid bill. Net territorial change in the past month: Russia +33 square miles.