In the Thick of It

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Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump arrives at an election night watch party at the Palm Beach Convention Center, Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024, in West Palm Beach, Fla. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

Post-Soviet Reaction to Trump’s Win: Putin Says He’s Hopeful, But Some Officials in Moscow Don’t Hold Their Breath

November 06, 2024

After a significant wait, Russian President Vladimir Putin on Nov. 7 congratulated Donald Trump on his victory in the U.S. presidential election, stating he’s ready to hold discussions with the president elect on stabilizing U.S.-Russian relations, including the issues of Ukraine and strategic stability. “It seems to me, it deserves attention what was said about the desire to restore relations with Russia, to help end the Ukrainian crisis,” Putin said in his first comments on Trump’s re-election, which he made during the third hour of his remarks at the Valdai conference on Nov. 7. Earlier, Putin’s deputy at the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev expressed hope that Trump will reduce U.S. support for Ukraine, although Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasized that the Kremlin will wait for Trump's actions before drawing conclusions. Meanwhile, some high-ranking Russian officials, such as Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova struggled to contain outbursts of schadenfreude over Kamala Harris’ loss. On the other side of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, a Ukrainian soldier described the outcome of the Nov. 5 poll as a loss of hope for her country, even as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy put on a brave face, heaping praise on Trump. Interestingly, some Russian and Ukrainian commentators are skeptical that a President Trump will be able to keep his recent promise to quickly attain a Russian-Ukrainian peace deal (e.g. Moscow’s Dmitry Suslov and Kyiv’s Tymofiy Mylovanov). 

For more commentary on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election by officials, experts and media in these and other post-Soviet republics, please see the compilation below. Entries are arranged in alphabetical order.

Armenia

  • Nikol Pashinyan, Armenian Prime Minister, wrote: "Mr. President-elect, I look forward to working with you to build up Armenian-U.S. strategic bilateral relations based on our shared values, priorities and interests.” (Interfax, 11.06.24)

Azerbaijan

  • Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan’s president, said Trump’s convincing victory in the election proves that the American people trust him and support his political course, Aliyev said in his greetings published on the presidential website. "The Republic of Azerbaijan attaches a particular importance to the comprehensive development of its relations with the United States of America," the greetings said. (Interfax, 11.06.24)

Belarus

  • Alexander Lukashenko, Belarusian president, has described Trump as "an ardent capitalist who has won the U.S. election" and said that the whole of Europe, including Belarus, aspires for socialism. "Today, more and more people start talking about socialism. Such definitions were stomped on in the 1990s. ... True, this is still a foul word in America, where even the victorious president Trump used it that way, accusing [Democratic Party candidate Kamala] Harris of being a socialist and a communist. He is an ardent capitalist. Naturally, a billionaire," Lukashenko said. (Interfax, 11.06.24)
  • Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Belarussian opposition leader, wrote: “We will work with the new administration, continuing and strengthening our relations. Of course, we have contacts with Donald Trump’s circle and the Republican Party. The issue of Belarus unites different politicians in the U.S., regardless of party affiliation.” (Tsikhanovskaya’s website, 11.06.24)

Estonia

  • Margus Tsahkna, Estonian foreign minister, said his country does not need to change its foreign and security policy nor be concerned following Trump's election as U.S. president, as it has already been acting in line with what Trump has sought from European countries. The minister also expressed doubt that the U.S. would reduce its close ties with Europe after Trump assumes office. (ERR.ee, 11.06.24)

Georgia

  • Irakli Kobakhidze, prime minister of Georgia, wrote: “I am confident that President Trump’s leadership will promote peace globally and in our region as well as ensure restart in [U.S.-Georgian] relations. (X, 11.06.24)
  • Mamuka Mdinaradze, executive secretary of the Georgian Dream ruling party, said: "We congratulate the American people, our strategic partner and friendly state, where peace and traditional values win.” (Interfax, 11.06.24)
  • Salome Zourabichvili, Georgian president, wrote: "Congratulations on your election, Mr. President. A strong U.S. - our strategic partner and friend of 33 years - is needed now more than ever to support Georgia's Euro-Atlantic integration, bolster regional security and stability," Zourabichvili said on social media. Hopefully, U.S. support for Georgia's Euro-Atlantic integration will be stronger than ever before, and measures to enhance security and stability in the region will continue, she said. (Interfax, 11.06.24)

Kazakhstan

  • Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, president of Kazakhstan, expressed confidence in the progressive development of bilateral cooperation in the field of security, nuclear non-proliferation and investment in his letter to Trump. The Kazakh president wished Trump success in his work for the prosperity of the American people, ensuring global stability and security. (Interfax, 11.06.24)

Kyrgyzstan

  • Sadyr Japarov, president of Kyrgyzstan, said in a message to Trump: "I believe that your leadership experience and profound knowledge will create conditions for further deepening comprehensive cooperation between Kyrgyzstan and the United States of America based on the principles of mutual respect.” Japarov said he also believes that through joint efforts, Kyrgyzstan and the U.S. will be able to "successfully respond to future global challenges and raise their partnership to a new level." "I assure you that I will make every effort to advance our multi-vector cooperation, which opens up vast opportunities for Kyrgyzstan and the U.S.," he said. (Interfax, 11.06.24.)

Latvia

  • Edgars Rinkēvičs, president of Latvia, wrote on X: “@realDonaldTrump, look forward to working with you to strengthen bilateral relations and transatlantic partnership. Europe needs strong U.S. and U.S. needs strong Europe. Latvia is and will be a strong and reliable partner of the U.S.” (LSM+, 11.06.24)
  • Evika Siliņa, prime minister of Estonia, wrote on X: “Latvia’s priority is to continue strengthening transatlantic ties. We count on strong U.S. leadership in the world. The U.S. is our strategic partner and strong NATO Ally. Latvia spends over 3% on defense,” wrote Siliņa. (LSM+, 11.06.24)

Lithuania

  • Gitanas Nausėda, president of Lithuania, touted the strategic partnership between his country and the U.S. in his congratulatory message: “[America] is a key strategic ally of Lithuania. We both take our security seriously. [Lithuania] currently allocates 3.5% GDP to defense& will continue increasing our investment. Transatlantic unity is crucial!” (Politico.eu, 11.06.24)

Moldova

  • Maia Sandu, newly reelected president of Moldova, wrote: “Moldova cherishes the relationship with the United States, our strategic partner, and looks forward to deepening cooperation for a prosperous and secure future for our people.” (Moldpres, 11.06.24)

Russia

  • Timofey Bordachev, program director of Russia’s Valdai Club, wrote: “For international politics, Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election means an increased likelihood of minor crises and upheavals, but a reduced likelihood of a general war and a dramatic outcome for all of humanity. Which is good news, because the U.S.'s position in the world is itself a source of trouble for everyone else. And so minor upheavals are inevitable. In the opinion of the vast majority of observers, a direct military clash between Russia and the U.S. could now be the result not of intent, but of a tragic coincidence and simple human stupidity.” (VZ.ru, 11.06.24)
  • Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Kremlin-run Russian Direct Investment Fund, expected that Trump’s victory could lead to détente between Washington and Moscow. “Despite a large-scale disinformation campaign directed against them, Trump and his team demonstrated unique strength and resilience,” Dmitriev said. “This opens up new opportunities for resetting relations between Russia and the United States.” (FT, 11.06.24)
  • Alexander Dugin, the Russian ideologue who has long pushed an imperialist agenda for Moscow, said: “We have won... The world will be never ever like before. Globalists have lost their final combat," he wrote on X. (WP, 11.07.24)
  • Alexander Dynkin, president of Russia’s Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, said Trump will not be able to break up the strategic alliance of Russia and China. "It is very naive to think that the president of one country, even a very large one, can break up the strategic partnership between Moscow and Beijing," he said, speaking about the impact of Trump's victory on the Russian-Chinese partnership. (TASS, 11.06.24)
  • Fyodor Lukyanov, chairman of the Presidium of Russia’s Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, wrote: “The outcome of the U.S. elections will not transform the world. The processes that did not begin yesterday will not end tomorrow. But the American vote has become an important indicator of long-term changes. ... The Republicans surrounding him [Trump] believe in the strength and power of America, though not for governing the entire world, but for imposing their conditions where it is advantageous to them. What will come of all this, no one will say yet. But there is a sense of a page turned and a new chapter beginning. First of all, because of the bankruptcy of those who wrote the previous one.” (RG.ru/Russia in Global Affairs, 11.06.24)
  • Valentina Matviyenko, Russia’s Federation Council speaker, said: "I think there should be no excessive expectations. I believe there will be no drastic change in the U.S. policy. At least, there are not many reasons now to think so.” "We are set to cooperate, we are not inclined to any kind of confrontation," Matviyenko said. "We are open to dialogue, we are open to the discussion of common global security, rather than security of particular states," she said. "In my opinion, this is a clear demonstration of the Americans' attitude to the policy pursued by the Democrats in recent years, both in the domestic and foreign policy. It is a protest against everything that happened, including, I believe, in Russia's regard," Matviyenko said. (Interfax, 11.06.24)
  • The Moscow Exchange Index rose by 3.6% on news of Donald Trump's likely victory in the U.S. presidential election. Russian energy giants Gazprom and Novatek were among the best performers, both rising nearly 5% shortly after opening. Online marketplace Ozon rose most, while Aeroflot initially added 6%. AFK Sistema, Alrosa, Tatneft, Unipro, TKS Holding and MMK all gained ground. (Istories, 11.06.24, FT, 11.06.24, FT, 11.06.24)
  • Dmitry Medvedev, National Security Council Deputy Chairman, wrote: “Kamala is finished. ... Trump has one quality that’s useful for us: As a businessman to his core, he absolutely hates spending money on spongers and freeloaders—on stupid little allies, dumb charity projects and greedy international organizations, which includes Toxic Bandera Ukraine [sic]. The question is how much they’ll force Trump to give for the war.” In even more offensive language, Medvedev also suggested that Trump’s return to the White House is a severe blow to Zelenskyy. (Meduza, 11.06.24, Kommersant, 11.06.24, WP, 11.06.24)
  • A senior executive at a major Russian state corporation said: "I don’t believe in major breakthroughs, and there is no great euphoria in my circle of contacts.” (VP/MT, 11.07.24)
  • A  Russian government official said: “Until the inauguration, we will keep advancing [in Ukraine]. … It would be good to reach the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions by January, and then we will decide what to do with Kherson [the Kyiv-held capital of Ukraine's Kherson region, which Russia partially occupies].” (VP/MT, 11.07.24)
  • The Russian Foreign Ministry said: "In working with the new administration once it checks in at the White House, Russia will firmly defend its national interests and remain focused on achieving all the goals it has set itself in the special military operation. Our terms are unchanged and well known in Washington.” Moscow "does not cherish illusions with regard to the elected American president, who is well known in Russia, and a new composition of the Congress, where the Republicans are tentatively prevailing," it said. "The ruling political elite in the U.S., regardless of its party affiliation, follows an anti-Russian line and the policy of containing Moscow. This line is not susceptible to fluctuations of a political barometer in the U.S., whether it concerns the 'America first' concept as it is interpreted by Donald Trump and his supporters or the 'rules-based world order,' on which the Democrats are fixated," the ministry said. (Interfax, 11.06.26)
  • Dmitry Peskov, Vladimir Putin’s press secretary:
    • "I still know nothing about Putin's intention to congratulate Trump," the Kremlin spokesman told the media. A few hours earlier, Peskov also said Putin had no plans for congratulating Trump. "I suggest remembering that we are talking about an election that took place in a country that is unfriendly to us and in a country that is involved in the conflict over Ukraine," Peskov said. (TASS, 11.06.24)
    • Peskov dismissed the possibility of ending the conflict in Ukraine “overnight.” (Meduza, 11.06.24)
    • Peskov also said: "Indeed, during the election campaign, we heard certain statements on Ukraine from Mr. [Donald] Trump. Indeed, unlike many other U.S. politicians, Mr. Trump declared his plans to establish peace, his unwillingness to continue the war until the last Ukrainian.” According to the Kremlin spokesman, this stance distinguishes Trump "from other representatives of the American political establishment." "But these things were pronounced during the election race, and we will see what happens after he take office. We will judge by his first official statements and concrete steps," Peskov noted. (TASS, 11.06.24)
    • Peskov also recounted Putin’s remarks about his readiness for communication and dialogue. "This has been our consistent position, and it is well-known globally," he said. (Interfax, 11.06.24)
  • Vladimir Putin, president of Russia, congratulated Donald Trump on his victory in the U.S. presidential election and said he’s ready to hold discussions with the new American leader. “It seems to me, it deserves attention what was said about the desire to restore relations with Russia, to help end the Ukrainian crisis,” Putin said in his first comments on Trump’s re-election. Trump said that Putin wasn’t among the “probably” 70 phone conversations he has held with world leaders since winning the election, but that he still is planning to speak with the Russian president, according to NBC News and Bloomberg. Putin also said he was impressed with how Trump, who decisively defeated Vice President Kamala Harris in the Nov. 5 election, handled himself in the moments after an assassination attempt in July, describing Trump as a brave man. (Bloomberg, 11.07.24, RFE/RL, 11.07.24)
  • Leonid Slutsky, the leader of Russia’s nationalist LDPR party, said Trump's victory could lead to the collapse of Zelenskyy's government and an end to Western aid for Ukraine. "Judging by the pre-election rhetoric … the Republican team is not going to send more and more American taxpayer money into the furnace of the proxy war against Russia.” (Meduza, 11.06.24. WP, 11.06.24)
  • Dmitry Suslov, the deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at Russia’s National Research University Higher School of Economics said: "Judging by all statements and publications, Trump is likely to suggest freezing the [Russian-Ukrainian] conflict, in which the current line of engagement will actually turn into a new de facto border without being recognized as an international legal boundary. ... Perhaps, the Trump administration may even propose a neutral status for Ukraine and its pledge not to join NATO, but at the same time it will insist that Ukraine be militarily strengthened ... Russia, of course, will categorically disagree with such conditions.” (TASS, 11.06.24)
  • Alexei Venediktov, the well-connected longtime editor of Echo of Moscow radio, said a clear sign of the Kremlin’s lack of trust in President-elect Trump was Putin's decision not to immediately congratulate him as other leaders had. "This is actually an insult," he said. "It's a signal." (WP, 11.07.24)
  • Maria Zakharova, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, said: 
    • "He [Trump] has been saying that America is actually sick and that American society needs to solve these domestic issues.” According to Zakharova, Trump’s position is radically different from the ideology imposed by "ultra-liberal circles." The Russian diplomat hailed as "a substantial step forward" Trump’s remarks recognizing that America should address its own issues before solving problems elsewhere. (TASS, 11.06.24)
    • “Kamala Harris turned out to be right when she quoted Psalm 30:5: ‘Weeping may endure for a night, but joy cometh in the morning.’ Hallelujah, I’ll add for myself.” (Meduza, 11.06.24) Commenting on Russia’s reaction to the U.S. election results during a Belfer Center event on Nov. 6, former U.S. ambassador to Russia John Sullivan said that Putin cannot openly express a preference for any U.S. president, nor indicate that he would make efforts to reach out to a new administration. Sullivan noted that although Russia might prefer Trump, U.S. policy toward Russia and Ukraine remains ambiguous in terms of long-term benefit to Russian interests, and Moscow is aware of that.
  • The Moscow Exchange Index rose by 3.6% on news of Trump's likely victory in the U.S. presidential election. Russian energy giants Gazprom and Novatek were among the best performers, both rising nearly 5% shortly after opening. Online marketplace Ozon rose most, while Aeroflot initially added 6%. AFK Sistema, Alrosa, Tatneft, Unipro, TKS Holding and MMK all gained ground. (Istories, 11.06.24, FT, 11.06.24, FT, 11.06.24)
    • Russia-exposed stocks rallied from Turkey to eastern Europe as Trump’s election victory prompted investors to position for moves toward a resolution of the war in Ukraine despite massive remaining obstacles. (Bloomberg, 11.07.24)
    • On Nov. 4, JPMorgan’s Emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa Securities (JEMA) had jumped 18.3%, its biggest daily rise in over two years. Until 2022, the London-listed investment fund went by a slightly snappier name: JPMorgan Russian Securities. JEMA remains a good way to play the prospect of Russia getting de-sanctioned. (FT, 11.07.24)
    • One portfolio manager, who asked not to be named, told FT Alphaville: “All the talk this morning is about how to trade Russia and whether sanctions will be thrown off . . . [traders at Western banks] are questioning suddenly whether the ruble is now tradeable. They pointed out that a few Western banks do still trade the ruble offshore via non-deliverable forwards, a kind of derivative that allows investors to bet on the price of the currency at any given time.” (FT 11.06.24)

Tajikistan

At the time of publication, no remarks on the U.S. presidential election were available from Tajik President Emomali Rahmon or other Tajik officials, nor were we able to find any news items on whether the leadership of Tajikistan has already congratulated Trump.

Turkmenistan

At the time of publication, no remarks on the U.S. presidential election were available from Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov or other Turkmen officials, nor were we able to find any news items on whether the leadership of Turkmenistan has already congratulated Trump.

Ukraine

  • An adviser to the Ukrainian government said he feared that Trump “may push the whole world into the era of chaos.” “It might be a moment of truth for Europe, the U.K. to step up and be the adults in the room. But they may not be up to that task.” (FT, 11.06.24)
  • Oleksandr Merezhko, an MP in Zelenskyy’s party, who chairs the parliament’s foreign affairs committee, said he was “cautiously optimistic” about Trump. “He wants to be a successful president and success means that Ukraine should become for him a success story, not a story of failure,” he said. (FT, 11.06.24)
  • Tymofiy Mylovanov, a former Ukrainian economy minister, said: “I am very skeptical that the war will end quickly, in 24 hours, as Trump promised. It definitely won’t be boring.” (Bloomberg, 11.06.24)
  • Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister for European integration, said that “Trump can definitely organize” more political momentum in Kyiv’s favor. (FT, 11.06.24)
  • A Ukrainian defense official said that many people in the country’s military “are afraid [U.S.] assistance will stop and we’ll lose Donbas [in eastern Ukraine] at least.” (FT, 11.06.24) 
  • Ukraine’s dollar bonds were among the best emerging market performers by percentage gained as of 9:25 a.m. in New York, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Ukraine’s 1.75% notes due in 2035 rose 1.8 cents on the dollar to 47.3 cents. “Bonds are reflecting the probability that the war could end sooner, rather than focusing on what shape that deal would look like,” said Thys Louw, a portfolio manager at Ninety One U.K. Ltd. (Bloomberg, 11.06.24)
  • Ukrainska Pravda, a Ukrainian news outlet, wrote in a commentary on the American election that the war in Ukraine was less central to U.S. politics than the wars in Vietnam or Korea had been. There, “American boys fought and died,” the site noted. (NYT, 11.06.24)
  • Oksana Vedmid, a Ukrainian soldier in the combat zone, said: “It feels like a small loss of hope for better support in our difficult struggle, knowing his stance and sympathy toward our enemies,” she said by telephone, referring to Trump. “At the same time, I understand that the situation has become so tough recently that even the aid we’ve received hasn’t been enough to improve our position.” (NYT, 11.06.24)
  • Pavlo Velychko, a lieutenant in the Ukrainian army, said the result of the U.S. poll could prompt Europe to take a larger role in defending its eastern borders and Ukraine. “We should not hope for a miracle from across the ocean.” (NYT, 11.06.24)
  • Volodymyr Zelenskyy, president of Ukraine, wrote on X that he recalls his “great meeting” with Trump in September, where the two “discussed in detail the Ukraine-U.S. strategic partnership, the Victory Plan and ways to put an end to Russian aggression against Ukraine.” “I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach in global affairs. This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer. I am hopeful that we will put it into action together. We look forward to an era of a strong United States of America under President Trump’s decisive leadership. We rely on continued strong bipartisan support for Ukraine in the United States.” Zelenskyy concluded his message by saying he’s “looking forward to personally congratulating President Trump” and discussing “ways to strengthen Ukraine's strategic partnership with the United States.” (Meduza, 11.06.24)

Uzbekistan

  • Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Uzbekistan’s president, issued a long and detailed congratulatory statement. Congratulating Trump on his “convincing victory,” Mirziyoyev offered his interpretation of the win as confirmation that “the American people actively support your programs and plans aimed at strengthening the international authority and economic power of the United States, ensuring global development and prosperity, as an experienced and skillful politician.” (Diplomat, 11.06.24)

Dasha Zhukauskaite is a student associate with Russia Matters.

Originally published on Nov. 6, 2024, updated on Nov. 8, 2024.

Opinions are solely those of the individuals quoted. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)