Analysis

This listing contains all the analytical materials posted on the Russia Matters website. These include: RM Exclusives, commissioned by Russia Matters exclusively for this website; Recommended Reads, deemed particularly noteworthy by our editorial team; Partner Posts, originally published by our partners elsewhere; and Future Policy Leaders, pieces by promising young scholars and policy thinkers. Content can be filtered by genre and subject-specific criteria and is updated often. Gradually we will be adding older Recommended Reads and Partner Posts dating back as far as 2011.
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Why the Wagner Group Cannot Be Easily Absorbed by the Russian Military—and What That Means for the West

Kimberly Marten September 01, 2023 RM Exclusives
In one shape or another, the Wagner Group is likely to continue operating in the interests of Putin’s regime outside Russia, regardless of whether it comes under MoD command and the costs of doing so.
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What Global Mutiny Trends Can Teach Us About Russia After Prigozhin’s Uprising

Maggie Dwyer August 11, 2023 RM Exclusives
Given what we know about mutinies around the globe, we should not assume Prigozhin’s rebellion will be a one-off, an expert argues.
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Mutiny in Russia: What Happened, What’s Next and What To Be Thankful For

Simon Saradzhyan June 29, 2023 RM Exclusives
Deus ex machina or not, we should be thankful that this struggle for power within the Russian ruling elite did not acquire a nuclear dimension.
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Why Putin Will Use Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine

Kevin Ryan May 17, 2023 RM Exclusives
A former U.S. defense attaché to Moscow believes it's almost unavoidable.
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US Intel Leaks Highlight Russia's Limited Options in Face of Ukraine's Counteroffensive

Pavel Luzin May 05, 2023 RM Exclusives
Moscow’s main bet militarily seems to be on playing defense, as it lacks the manpower, arms and commanders to regain strategic initiative on the battlefield.
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Domestic Politics Encourage Continued War of Attrition in Ukraine in 2023

Thomas Graham February 22, 2023 RM Exclusives
The main question now: How far will the escalation go?
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Be Careful What You Wish For: Russia, China and Afghanistan after the Withdrawal

Jeffrey Mankoff July 29, 2021 RM Exclusives
Do Beijing and Moscow have sufficient influence to oversee a managed transition, contain any spillover of violence, and provide reassurance to anxious Afghanistan neighbors? The whole region is about to find out.
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Five Years After Russia Declared Victory in Syria: What Has Been Won?

Thomas Schaffner March 18, 2021 RM Exclusives
Has the intervention paid off or has Obama’s 2015 prediction that the operation would end in a “quagmire” for Russia come true? An assessment of some key costs and benefits generated by Russia’s intervention in Syria.
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Russian Moves in Afghanistan Are About Regional Stability, Not Revenge on US

Artemy M. Kalinovsky July 22, 2020 RM Exclusives
U.S. politicians may feel betrayed by Russia’s engagement with the Taliban, but to understand what Russia is up to, they need to stop imagining that Moscow’s every move is somehow intended to undermine the U.S.
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Who ‘Defeated’ ISIS? An Analysis of US and Russian Contributions

Domitilla Sagramoso May 06, 2020 RM Exclusives
There can be little doubt that the U.S. and its allies played a much bigger role in subduing the terror group than Russia. But ISIS has plenty of life in it yet and any alleged victory is fragile.
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Cooperate to Deescalate: Working With Russia Against Terrorism Will Make America Safer

George Beebe February 08, 2018 RM Exclusives
Careful cooperation with Russia would provide the U.S. not only with valuable intelligence, but also with a means of mitigating the risks posed by Russian resurgence.
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US-Russia-Turkey Dynamics in Syria After ‘Olive Branch’: One Door Closes, Another Opens

Oksana Antonenko January 26, 2018 RM Exclusives
Ankara’s Afrin offensive has exposed Moscow’s vulnerabilities in Syria and hurt Russia’s chances for casting itself as the lead player in clinching a peace deal. But it also opens a new door for tactical U.S.-Russian cooperation to keep the peace in northern Syria.
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