Analysis

This listing contains all the analytical materials posted on the Russia Matters website. These include: RM Exclusives, commissioned by Russia Matters exclusively for this website; Recommended Reads, deemed particularly noteworthy by our editorial team; Partner Posts, originally published by our partners elsewhere; and Future Policy Leaders, pieces by promising young scholars and policy thinkers. Content can be filtered by genre and subject-specific criteria and is updated often. Gradually we will be adding older Recommended Reads and Partner Posts dating back as far as 2011.
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Putin’s Rationality and Escalation in Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Kimberly Marten March 09, 2022 Recommended Reads
To understand whether Putin is likely to attack a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member-state or use nuclear weapons, it is helpful to consider a standard social science definition of rationality.
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Strategic Folly in Ukraine: A War That Putin Cannot Win

Lawrence Freedman March 03, 2022 Recommended Reads
From the start, the Russian campaign has been hampered by political objectives that cannot be translated into meaningful military objectives.
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What’s Eating Putin?

Rose Gottemoeller March 03, 2022 Recommended Reads
As horrific and needless violence unfolds in Ukraine, my friends, family, colleagues, and media from around the world have all been asking the same questions: What’s eating Putin?
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Decoding Putin’s Speeches: The Three Ideological Lines of Russia’s Military Intervention in Ukraine

Marlene Laruelle and Ivan Grek February 25, 2022 RM Exclusives
Putin's Feb. 21 and Feb. 24 speeches have confirmed the construction of a narrative legitimizing the military intervention in Ukraine along three key ideological lines: a historical one, an ethnic one and a political one.
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Opportunity for Diplomacy: No Russian Attack Before Feb. 20

Graham Allison February 04, 2022 Recommended Reads
Most of the American foreign policy community has still not come to grips with the relationship that has developed between Russia and China in the decade since Xi Jinping became president.
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Non-Aggressors With Benefits: Russia-China Alignment Won’t Be Game-Changed by Ukraine or Much Else

Paul Saunders February 03, 2022 RM Exclusives
The relationship rests on a mutual commitment to not threatening one another’s important interests, allowing each government to focus on its strategic aims.
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Parsing the Evidence: Will Russia Invade Ukraine?

RM Staff January 27, 2022 RM Exclusives
With reams of analysis written to answer this question, we summarize a handful of experts who have backed their assertions with abundant research.
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Fact-Check: Is Russia's Economy 'Nuclear Weapons and Oil Wells and Nothing Else,' as Biden Claimed?

RM Staff December 28, 2021 RM Exclusives
The U.S. president’s July 2021 remarks about Russia’s economy may have been hyperbolic, but variations of the claim surface regularly and are not backed up by data.
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Biden-Putin Call Solves Nothing, US Signals ‘Deterrence by Punishment’

Nikolas K. Gvosdev December 09, 2021 RM Exclusives
The call guarantees that the Biden administration is going to have to devote more attention and time to Moscow in 2022.
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Biden is Right that Global Democracy is at Risk. But the Threat isn’t China

Aaron David Miller and Richard Sokolsky December 03, 2021 Recommended Reads
Instead of chasing the goal of democratizing the domestic political orders of other countries, the Biden administration could collaborate with a small number of like-minded democratic countries that have the skill, will, resources and capacity to make progress on pressing global problems.
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Influence of the Defense Industry on US National Security Strategy

Matt Korda November 12, 2021 RM Exclusives
The U.S. government has created a corporate juggernaut with inordinate influence over policy, particularly vis-à-vis Russia.
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Russia’s Defense Industry and Its Influence on Policy: Stuck in a Redistributive Feedback Loop

Pavel Luzin November 03, 2021 RM Exclusives
In competing for government resources Russia’s defense corporations and the people affiliated with them become both beneficiaries and proponents of Moscow’s ongoing confrontation with the West.
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