Analysis

This listing contains all the analytical materials posted on the Russia Matters website. These include: RM Exclusives, commissioned by Russia Matters exclusively for this website; Recommended Reads, deemed particularly noteworthy by our editorial team; Partner Posts, originally published by our partners elsewhere; and Future Policy Leaders, pieces by promising young scholars and policy thinkers. Content can be filtered by genre and subject-specific criteria and is updated often. Gradually we will be adding older Recommended Reads and Partner Posts dating back as far as 2011.
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The Putin Doctrine: A Move on Ukraine Has Always Been Part of the Plan

Angela Stent January 27, 2022 Recommended Reads
As the United States and its allies await Russia’s next move and try to deter an invasion with diplomacy and the threat of heavy sanctions, they need to understand Putin’s motives and what they portend.
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Parsing the Evidence: Will Russia Invade Ukraine?

RM Staff January 27, 2022 RM Exclusives
With reams of analysis written to answer this question, we summarize a handful of experts who have backed their assertions with abundant research.
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Russia Has Been Warning About Ukraine for Decades. The West Should Have Listened.

Anatol Lieven January 25, 2022 Recommended Reads
While the terms of any compromise with Russia over Ukraine would involve some tough negotiation, we can seek such a compromise without fearing that this will open the way for further Russian moves to destroy NATO and subjugate eastern Europe.
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As Markets Crash and War Fears Grow, Russia’s Business Elite Suffers in Silence

Pjotr Sauer and Jake Cordell January 25, 2022 Partner Posts
Some of the country’s most successful executives are preparing for heavy losses, but unable to speak out or influence events.
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Breaking the Impasse Between Russia and the West Over European Security

Thomas Graham January 20, 2022 RM Exclusives
Compromises by the West—including a lengthy moratorium on NATO expansion—can ensure that competition with Moscow proceeds in a way that minimizes the risk of catastrophic military conflict.
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Liberal Illusions Caused the Ukraine Crisis

Stephen M. Walt January 19, 2022 Recommended Reads
Had the United States and its European allies not succumbed to hubris, wishful thinking and liberal idealism and relied instead on realism’s core insights, the present crisis would not have occurred.
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For Russia and US, National Security Must Be Embedded in Mutual Security

Robert Legvold January 06, 2022 RM Exclusives
The clash around Ukraine is over competing rights, not merely conflicting interests, and any solution depends on incentives (rather than disincentives) and a rebuilding of trust.
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The Ukraine Crisis Will End Inevitably in a Redivision of Europe

Thomas Graham January 04, 2022 Recommended Reads
The dividing line between Europe and the Russian sphere of influence in Europe has gravitated westward and eastward over the past three centuries as a consequence of periodic trials of arms.
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Russia’s Response to US Withdrawal From Afghanistan: Criticism of US, Concerns About Security Environment

Mary Chesnut and Julian G. Waller September 14, 2021 RM Exclusives
While schadenfreude and strategic anti-U.S. messaging is the most visible aspect of Russia’s immediate response, Moscow’s more material concerns—including regional instability and the spread of radical Islamic terrorism—should not be understated.
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Why Russia Is Unlikely to Use Zapad-2021 to Intervene Militarily in European Countries

Simon Saradzhyan August 31, 2021 Partner Posts
As Russia prepares to hold exercises in its western regions again, we hear warnings that Moscow will use the wargames as cover for aggression against another country; however, the conditions necessary for a Russian military intervention are absent.
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Afghanistan Has Never Been Moscow or Washington’s to Win or Lose

Sergey Radchenko August 16, 2021 Recommended Reads
Radchenko: When it comes to the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, Biden made the right call, even if the execution was far less impressive than the orderly Soviet pullout some 30 years ago. What is left in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal was never going to be pretty but nor did the Soviets leave a pretty sight. But this hardly changes the basic issue: Getting in was a mistake; getting out was the right thing to do. Because in the end Afghanistan was never Moscow’s, or Washington’s, to win or lose. 
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Afghanistan Is a Wake-Up Call for ‘Major Non-NATO Allies’

Nikolas K. Gvosdev August 16, 2021 Recommended Reads
From Afghanistan to Hungary, there is confusion about what alliance means and what steps the United States is prepared to take on behalf of those it considers allies. These matters need resolution because the United States cannot allow any doubt about what commitments it is prepared to enforce, especially with great power competitors more prepared to test any ambiguity in America’s stance.
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