Analysis

This listing contains all the analytical materials posted on the Russia Matters website. These include: RM Exclusives, commissioned by Russia Matters exclusively for this website; Recommended Reads, deemed particularly noteworthy by our editorial team; Partner Posts, originally published by our partners elsewhere; and Future Policy Leaders, pieces by promising young scholars and policy thinkers. Content can be filtered by genre and subject-specific criteria and is updated often. Gradually we will be adding older Recommended Reads and Partner Posts dating back as far as 2011.
interview

Fiona Hill to Politico: Yes, Putin Would Use Nukes

RM Staff March 02, 2022 Recommended Reads
In this interview, the former U.S. National Security Council official discusses Putin's goals and motives in Ukraine and his indications that use of nuclear weapons is on the table.
article

Decoding Putin’s Speeches: The Three Ideological Lines of Russia’s Military Intervention in Ukraine

Marlene Laruelle and Ivan Grek February 25, 2022 RM Exclusives
Putin's Feb. 21 and Feb. 24 speeches have confirmed the construction of a narrative legitimizing the military intervention in Ukraine along three key ideological lines: a historical one, an ethnic one and a political one.
article

Macron Will Win Time for Diplomacy With Russia, Not Go Rogue

Emre Peker, Mujtaba Rahman and Alex Brideau February 11, 2022 Recommended Reads
The Elysee’s engagement with the Kremlin was driven by Macron’s immediate desire to win time for diplomacy and avert war, which he managed.
explainer

NATO or Bust: Why Do Ukraine’s Leaders Dismiss Neutrality as a Security Strategy?

Serhiy Kudelia February 09, 2022 RM Exclusives
Prominent U.S. thinkers have said a neutral status for Ukraine could defuse the crisis with Russia. Elites in Kyiv disagree. Here are their top concerns, which proponents of neutrality will have to address.
article

Non-Aggressors With Benefits: Russia-China Alignment Won’t Be Game-Changed by Ukraine or Much Else

Paul Saunders February 03, 2022 RM Exclusives
The relationship rests on a mutual commitment to not threatening one another’s important interests, allowing each government to focus on its strategic aims.
article

The Putin Doctrine: A Move on Ukraine Has Always Been Part of the Plan

Angela Stent January 27, 2022 Recommended Reads
As the United States and its allies await Russia’s next move and try to deter an invasion with diplomacy and the threat of heavy sanctions, they need to understand Putin’s motives and what they portend.
article

Parsing the Evidence: Will Russia Invade Ukraine?

RM Staff January 27, 2022 RM Exclusives
With reams of analysis written to answer this question, we summarize a handful of experts who have backed their assertions with abundant research.
article

Russia Has Been Warning About Ukraine for Decades. The West Should Have Listened.

Anatol Lieven January 25, 2022 Recommended Reads
While the terms of any compromise with Russia over Ukraine would involve some tough negotiation, we can seek such a compromise without fearing that this will open the way for further Russian moves to destroy NATO and subjugate eastern Europe.
survey

The Dilemma Over the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs April 15, 2021 Partner Posts
The Belfer Center asked its experts to share their thoughts on the implications of the pipeline for Europe's security and energy supply, transatlantic relations and policy toward Russia, as well as what actions the U.S. and Europe should take at this point.
article

Will Russia Invade Ukraine (Again)?

Simon Saradzhyan April 14, 2021 Recommended Reads
Not a day goes by without dire warnings of an imminent Russian military invasion of Ukraine, but Putin is unlikely to order an offensive against Ukraine unless Zelensky makes the first military move on the Donbass chessboard.
article

Rebuttal: Ukraine Is Emerging as Critical Node for White-Supremacy Extremists

Mollie Saltskog and Colin P. Clarke September 24, 2020 RM Exclusives
The authors argue that the transnational threat of violent right-wing extremism emanating from the conflict in eastern Ukraine has not waned, even as the number of ultranationalist foreign fighters there has.
article

Pompeo’s Visit Lets Post-Soviet States Leverage US Backing Against Russia, China, But Real Support Remains Limited

Nikolas Gvosdev February 07, 2020 RM Exclusives
American policies designed to challenge Russian dominance in Eurasia have either proceeded as a result of autopilot within the bureaucracy or because Congress has imposed them via veto-proof majorities.
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