The interviewee, an anthropologist, says: 

• “I think that the main problem for the regime now will not be the horizontal organization of citizens in networks, although this is important. Rather it will be fact that the war in Ukraine is not going at all as the regime has expected. This, in principle, can lead to changes at the top, in circles of people with political and financial power. A situation may arise that is somewhat reminiscent of the last years of the Soviet Union. Then the changes began precisely from above; without reforms from above, nothing would have happened.” 
• “When reforms start at the top—and they will start because this war [in Ukraine] cannot end in a ‘victory’—the regime will collapse. How exactly and when will this happen? It is hard to say. But we know from our recent history that such changes happen quickly and unexpectedly.” 
• “What matters to him [Putin] is not the communist component of the Soviet past—he treats that with contempt—but rather the role of the world leader played by the USSR. ... Why does he attack Lenin in his articles about Ukraine? He does so because Lenin insisted that nations have the right to self-determination... according to Putin's logic, Lenin was guilty of two crimes. First, his abstract idea of ​​the right of nations to self-determination led to their actual withdrawal from the Soviet Union. Second, the Bolshevik approach, in which nations and territories were randomly created and sometimes included the former territories of neighbors, led to these territories ending up in new, independent states. That was exactly how, in Putin’s view, did the independent Ukraine emerged: by having snatched off Russian lands with Russian residents. In his logic, it was from Russia that the territories were taken away, and Russia, therefore, did not take anything away [from Ukraine].” 
• “Yet, it I think or rather I would like to hope -that after a relatively short time, less than a decade, the system in Russia will completely change. It can’t help but change given how much is broken. The war took almost everyone by surprise, including even groups close to power. It is difficult to imagine that the revolution could start from below in this system; I don't think this will happen. But when reforms do come from above, it will quickly transpire that huge masses are ready for them. The task would be to return Russia to itself and to the world. It seems to me that many will participate in this process with enthusiasm... this was already the case in the last years of the Soviet Union - no one expected changes, but everyone was ready for them.” 

This item is part of Russia Matters’ “Clues from Russian Views” series, in which we share what newsmakers in/from Russia are saying on Russia-related issues that impact key U.S. national interests so that RM readers can glean clues about their thinking.

Photo by Oles_Navrotskiy shared under a Creative Commons license. The opinions summarized herein are solely those of the author.