In light of news about a Chinese ship crossing the Arctic, the authors of this article attempt to temper expectations about the future of Arctic shipping. Examining the permits granted to use the Northern Sea Route (NSR), the authors show that these permits are not all related to shipping and many did not even cover the entire NSR. The article notes that unpredictability is a huge disadvantage for the NSR and many economists are not taking this into consideration. Based on the authors’ analysis, Arctic shipping makes little sense for Chinese-European trade. The paper also called into question the incentives for Russia to develop the NSR, noting that it is costly to operate at the moment and the current fee structure for using the NSR is not favorable for Russia. The authors conclude that the NSR will likely remain a specialized Russian trade route, but will not develop into the international trade route that many predict.

Read the full text at the Arctic Institute.

Photo by Tuomas Romu shared under a C.C. BY 4.0 license.