Claim in 2019: Russia became stronger in 2019.
Read the full fact-check in our Contestable Claims section.
Source of the claim: Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov on Channel 1 (December 2019)
Speaking on a Russian TV program that aired Dec. 14, 2019, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: “Yes, I have no doubts about that,” when asked if Russia became stronger in 2019. Neither Peskov nor his interviewer specified whether, in their view, the increase in Russia’s strength was in absolute terms or relative to other countries or both.
Given this lack of specification, we chose to measure and compare three key widely recognized components of national power (economic growth, population and military expenditure) between 2018 and 2019 for Russia, the world as a whole, Russia’s global competitors, post-Soviet neighbors, oil producing countries and major developing nations—the countries relevant for Russia’s foreign policy. We also calculated changes in power for Russia and these countries by using variations of three well-known formulas to assess the power of states. Only one formula, the Experimental Index of National Power (EINP), which we based on Ray Cline’s approach toward measuring national power, confirms Peskov’s claim. This is largely due to the increase of an intangible factor included in the formula, the World Bank’s effectiveness of government index, that grew in Russia between 2018 and 2019. On key tangible components such as national power, economy and population, however, Russia's rate of growth lagged behind major developing nations, most developed Western countries and the world in general.