Russia in Review, April 28-May 5, 2017

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Phone conversation between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin on May 2:

  • U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin had what the White House called a “very good” call on May 2 during which:

    • Trump and Putin agreed to step up efforts to cooperate on resolving the Syria conflict and the fight against terrorism. On Syria, Trump and Putin discussed the possibility of creating “safe zones” to relieve that country’s humanitarian crisis. A White House statement said the two leaders had discussed such zones ''to achieve lasting peace for humanitarian and many other reasons.'' The Kremlin statement made no mention of safe zones, and Putin's spokesman said they had not been discussed in detail. Putin is pushing a plan to create security zones and deploy peacekeepers in Syria—possibly including Russian forces—to enforce a truce brokered in late 2016 by Russia, Iran and Turkey. Trump told Putin that he would send a representative to Russian-sponsored talks over Syria taking place in Kazakhstan on May 3-4. The Kremlin said Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov would ''intensify'' their dialogue to ''search for options'' in Syria. (Bloomberg, 05.02.17, New York Times, 05.02.17, Bloomberg, 05.03.17)

    • Trump and Putin discussed what the U.S. called the “very dangerous” situation on the Korean peninsula, with Putin calling for restraint and reduction of tensions. (Bloomberg, 05.02.17)

    • Trump and Putin discussed having their first one-on-one meeting in July in Germany, according to the Kremlin. While its statement said the two leaders were “in favor of organizing a personal meeting,” the U.S. statement didn’t mention that possibility.

    • The call, the third between the leaders since Trump took office in January, was “businesslike and constructive,” according to the Kremlin statement. U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson told reporters it was a “very, very fulsome call, a lot of detailed exchanges. So we’ll see where we go from here.” The conversation lasted about 30 minutes and was initiated by Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to a U.S. official briefed on the call. The official said there was no breakthrough during the call. (Wall Street Journal, 05.02.17, Bloomberg, 05.02.17)

Nuclear security:

  • The omnibus appropriations bill that was passed by the U.S. Senate on May 4 provides for the National Nuclear Security Agency to be funded at $12.938 billion, a $412 million increase over fiscal year 2016, including $1.902 billion for the agency’s non-proliferation activities and $9.318 billion for its weapons program, which represents a nearly $400 million increase. (Heinrich.senate.gov, 05.04.17)

Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:

  • Britain can no longer rely on U.S. leadership on Middle East policy and must work more closely with Europe to ensure the Iran nuclear deal stays in place, among other policies, the British parliament's House of Lords International Relations Committee said in a report on May 2. While U.S. President Donald Trump was unlikely to try to destroy the nuclear deal, failing to ease sanctions would push Iran towards more extensive trade relations with powers such as China and Russia, it said. (Reuters, 05.02.17)

Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations:

  • U.S. jets have intercepted two Russian Tu-95 bombers accompanied by two Su-35 fighters that flew near the Alaskan coast May 3, the North American Aerospace Defense Command says. This was the first time in several years that Russian bombers flying by were accompanied by fighter aircraft, officials said. (RFE/RL, 05.05.17)

  • The U.S. military mission in Europe has said that it relocated a tactical headquarters and 100 troops to Poland from Germany to facilitate the command of U.S. rotational forces recently deployed to the region. Some 6,000 U.S. troops have deployed this year to the region. (RFE/RL, 05.05.17)

  • The Pentagon has confirmed it will send the Army's Dagger Brigade—the Second Armored Brigade of the First Infantry Division—to Europe this September in support of Operation Atlantic Resolve, the American military's response to Russian meddling in Ukraine. At full strength, Dagger has a little more than 4,000 troops. (Wall Street Journal, 05.03.17)

  • Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, who commands U.S. Army Europe, says his job is to make 30,000 troops "look like 300,000" to the Russians. (Wall Street Journal, 05.03.17)

  • The commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard, Paul Zukunft, issued a stark warning on May 3 that Russia was leagues ahead of Washington in the Arctic. Zukunft warned that Russia was building up a huge military and industrial presence in the region while the United States dawdled. (Foreign Policy, 05.03.17)

  • Russia’s 3M22 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles streak toward their target as fast as Mach 6, or 4,600 miles per hour. But the Sea Ceptor defensive missiles on Britain’s Queen Elizabeth–class carriers can only intercept targets traveling up to Mach 3, or about 2,300 miles per hour, anonymous British defense officials told the British press. (The National Interest, 04.30.17)

  • An unarmed Minuteman III ICBM was launched May 3 from Vandenberg Air Force Base to test the weapon’s reliability and ensure an “effective nuclear deterrent,” according to the U.S. Air Force. (Los Angeles Times, 05.03.17)

Missile defense:

  • See nuclear arms control section.

Nuclear arms control:

  • The U.S. State Department's annual arms-control compliance report, issued in mid- April, asserted for the fourth consecutive year that Russia had developed a ground-launched cruise missile in violation of the INF treaty. In the 2017 U.S. report, the State Department's Bureau of Arms Control and Verification also provided several small hints at what the exact missile system was. The bureau said it had provided Moscow with specific manufacturing details, and had given Russia the dates and coordinates of Russian tests of the cruise missile. In its remarks, the Russian Foreign Ministry rejected U.S. accusations, and repeated past assertions that the deployment of the so-called Aegis Ashore system in Romania and Poland by the U.S. contradicted the treaty provisions, something Washington has denied. (RFE/RL, 04.29.17)

  • A global coalition of former military leaders and diplomats who had responsibility over nuclear weapons is launching a "shadow security council" to offer advice to world leaders on how to reduce what they consider to be the growing danger of a nuclear conflict fueled by the rhetoric of U.S. President Donald Trump and destabilizing moves by Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Nuclear Crisis Group boasts nearly two-dozen members of the nuclear priesthood of at least eight major nations—including a former commander of the U.S. atomic arsenal and Russia's former foreign minister and chief atomic weapons designer. (Politico, 05.04.17)

Counter-terrorism:

  • Just in time for the summer tourist season, the U.S. State Department has issued a new travel alert for all of Europe because of the threat of terrorist attacks on the continent. (The Washington Post, 05.02.17)

  • Turkish authorities say they have arrested an Iranian national suspected of smuggling components of a Russian-made antitank missile system from Ukraine in order to deliver them to a terrorist group. (RFE/RL, 04.30.17)

Conflict in Syria:

  • At the talks in Astana on May 4, Russia, Turkey and Iran signed an agreement for the creation of "de-escalation zones" in Syria. Alexander Lavrentiev, Russian President Vladimir Putin's special envoy for Syria, said military operations in the safe zones would cease beginning at midnight on May 6. “It is our shared position, that the creation of safe zones should lead to further peace making and strengthen the cease-fire regime," Putin said. (Wall Street Journal, 05.04.17,Wall Street Journal, 05.03.17, BBC, 05.05.17) 

    • After talks with Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan on May 3, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that he secured U.S. President Donald Trump’s backing for the proposal. “We spoke about this with Mr. Trump yesterday. As far as I understood, the American administration supports these ideas,” said Putin. (Bloomberg, 05.03.17)

    • A U.S. official said an agreement on safe zones was reached at the Astana talks, but that the U.S. isn't a party to the deal. Stuart Jones, the acting assistant secretary of state, was in Astana to attend the talks on Syria. Jones became the most senior American official to participate in the Astana talks since President Donald Trump took office. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said May 3 that despite frayed relations, the U.S. would try to work with Russia to resolve the Syria conflict. He didn't mention the safe-zone proposal. U.S. State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said May 4 that the U.S. has “concerns” about the Russian-backed accord, “including the involvement of Iran as a so-called guarantor,” and urged Russia to do more to rein in Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Since taking office, Trump has been exploring the option of creating unofficial safe zones in Syria, dubbed "interim de-escalation areas" by some U.S. officials, along the Turkey and Jordan borders. But U.S. military leaders have warned that significant American resources would be required to safeguard the regions. (AP, 05.03.17, Wall Street Journal, 05.02.17, Wall Street Journal, 05.03.17, New York Times, 05.03.17, Bloomberg, 05.05.17)

    • Representatives of Syrian opposition groups interrupted the signing ceremony when they walked out of the negotiations to oppose Iran's role in the agreement. The Syrian rebels are skeptical about the Russian plan as they reject an Iranian role, would prefer any cease-fire covers more of the country and that United Nations peacekeepers police it. They also insist on a ban on bombing raids; Putin has said such a prohibition could apply only where there is no military activity. (Bloomberg, 05.05.17, The Moscow Times, 05.04.17)

    • The head of Russia’s delegation to Syrian talks in Kazakhstan says an agreement for setting up four “de-escalation zones” in war-torn Syria will go into effect on May 6 and the Syrian air force is expected to hold its flights over those areas. Alexander Lavrentiev presented the plan to set up four buffer zones manned by troops from Russia, Iran and Turkey at a meeting with anti-Assad groups in Ankara. The areas, which Russia calls ''deconfliction zones'', would be set up in the northwestern Idlib province, Homs province in the west, the East Ghouta suburb of the capital Damascus and southern Syria. Russia has not officially released its proposal. Russia said rebels in those areas would first have to push out jihadist groups like the Islamic State and the former Nusra Front, which is linked to al-Qaida. Reports in Russian state media say the zones would be patrolled by forces from Russia, Iran and Turkey. A sweetener for the rebels in the Russian proposal is that the Syrian air force would be grounded while the de-escalation process is underway. (AP, 05.03.17, Bloomberg, 05.03.17, Bloomberg, 05.02.17, New York Times, 05.02.17, AP, 05.04.17, The Washington Post, 05.03.17)

    • The “de-escalation zones” will be closed to military aircraft from the U.S.-led coalition, Russian official Alexander Lavrentiev, who signed the new agreement, said May 5. Lavrentiev suggested that all military aircraft, including Russian and Turkish, also were prohibited. The same was suggested in a U.N. statement, which said Secretary-General Antonio Guterres “welcomes the commitments to ceasing the use of all weapons, particularly aerial assets.” (AP, 05.05.17)

    • The cease-fire agreement excludes attacks on al-Qaida’s—Syrian affiliate—the group known formerly as Jabhat al-Nusra and now as Jabhat Fatah al-Sham—and the Islamic State. (The Washington Post, 05.04.17)

    • Maps of the delineated cease-fire areas are expected to be agreed to by June 4, along with plans to deliver humanitarian aid and ensure the safe return of civilians who fled. (The Washington Post, 05.04.17)

    • In a nod to Damascus' fears that greater Kurdish cooperation with both U.S. and Russian forces could help foster Kurdish autonomy in the country, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the safe zones would be implemented in full respect of Syria's territorial integrity. (Wall Street Journal, 05.03.17)

    • Syria’s Foreign Ministry says Damascus is “fully backing” a Russian initiative to establish four areas of cease-fire in the war-torn country. (AP, 04.03.17)

    • U.N. Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura hailed on May 4 the plan for creating safe zones in Syria as a step in the right direction toward a real cessation of hostilities. The Astana talks were set up as a sort of alternative to the process favored by the United States and the United Nations in Geneva. But de Mistura, said May 2 for the first time that he would attend the talks. (New York Times, 05.02.17, AP, 05.01.17, Reuters, 05.04.17)

  • Expanding the number of countries involved in Russian-backed peace talks for Syria could offer a chance to jumpstart negotiations on a political solution, Gernot Erler, Germany's top official for Russia policy said in an interview published on May 2. (Reuters, 05.02.17)

  • “Without the participation of a country such as the U.S., it’s impossible to resolve this problem [in Syria] effectively,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said after talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Sochi. “We will continue to be in contact with our American partners and we hope to reach an understanding on joint steps in this important and sensitive field.” Asked whether he had the influence to sway Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Putin said that Russia, in tandem with Turkey and Iran, was trying to ''create the conditions for political cooperation from all sides.'' (New York Times, 05.02.17, Bloomberg, 05.02.17)

  • Russia and Turkey can “change the destiny of the whole region” together, Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan told Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi. (Bloomberg, 05.03.17)

  • When U.S. President Donald Trump met with ambassadors from the United Nations Security Council last week, he told them, ''The future of Assad is not a deal-breaker,'' a Russian diplomat said afterward. (New York Times, 05.02.17)

  • "The Russian behavior as we've seen, you know—the annexation of Crimea, the invasion of Ukraine, the support for this murderous regime in Syria and now arming the Taliban—these are all things that's clearly cut against Russian interest, especially in connection with the relationship with Assad in Syria and to arm the Taliban," said U.S. national security adviser H.R. McMaster. (RFE/RL, 04.30.17)

  • Syrian government forces used Soviet-made air-dropped bombs—known as KhAB-250 and KhAB-500—specifically designed to deliver sarin gas in their recent attack on Syria’s Idlib province, Human Rights Watch has concluded. (The Moscow Times, 05.02.17)

  • Russia condemns the use of chemical weapons by anyone and wants a full and impartial investigation into last month's poison gas attack on the Syrian city of Khan Sheikhoun, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on May 2. “Those guilty must be found and punished," Putin told a news conference after talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel held in Russia's Black Sea resort of Sochi. (Reuters, 05.02.17)

  • A Russian military adviser, Lt. Col. Aleksey Buchelnikov, was killed by a sniper in Syria, the Russian Defense Ministry has said. (RFE/RL, 05.03.17)

  • Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra snipers are using Russian-made night vision equipment, Russian military experts have established, the Kommersant newspaper has reported. (The Moscow Times, 05.05.17)

  • A Russian demining center has trained and equipped about 250 Syrian combat engineers. (TASS, 04.30.17)

  • U.S. armored vehicles are deploying in areas in northern Syria along the tense border with Turkey, a few days after a Turkish airstrike that killed 20 U.S.-backed Kurdish fighters, a Syrian war monitor and Kurdish activists said on April 26. (AP, 04.26.17)

  • Airstrikes struck a center of Syria’s rescuers known as the White Helmets in a rebel-held area in the country’s center, killing eight volunteers, opposition activists said on April 29. (The Washington Post, 04.29.17)

  • The president of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe has been stripped of his leadership powers after he joined Russian State Duma deputies on a trip to Syria to meet with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. (RFE/RL, 04.28.17)

  • Iran will continue providing military assistance to Syria despite the death of more than a thousand Iranian fighters in the conflict, a senior commander in Iran's Revolutionary Guards has said. (RFE/RL, 05.03.17)

Cyber security:

  • FBI Director James Comey described the difference between investigative journalism and what he called “intelligence porn” released by WikiLeaks. (The Washington Post, 05.03.17)

  • In late April, nearly 900 cyber security experts from across Europe and the U.S. participated in an event hosted in Tallinn to focus on defending a fictional country against a simulated cyberattack. The defenders faced real-world scenarios: a knocked-out email server, fake news accusing a NATO country of developing drones with chemical weapons and hackers compromising an air base's fueling system. (Wall Street Journal, 04.30.17)

  • The National Security Agency is no longer collecting Americans' emails and texts exchanged with people overseas that simply mention identifying terms—like email addresses—for foreigners whom the agency is spying on, but are neither to nor from those targets. The change is unrelated to the surveillance imbroglio over the investigations into Russia and the Trump campaign. (New York Times, 04.29.17)

  • A Norwegian press advocacy group says it has finally given an award to Edward Snowden in Moscow after several failed attempts to win a legal guarantee in Norway that the former National Security Agency contractor could travel freely without risk of being extradited to the United States. (AP, 05.03.17)

Russia’s alleged interference in U.S. elections:

  • Congress has authorized a new $100 million effort to counter "Russian influence and aggression" and to support civil society organizations in Europe and Eurasia. U.S. lawmakers on May 4 also backed a measure imposing new restrictions and oversight on Russian diplomats in the United States—a measure that Moscow had angrily warned Washington against. Both efforts were included in the $1.1 trillion budget to fund the federal government for 2017 that was given final backing by the Senate. The House of Representatives’ version of the bill also authorized intelligence policies through September, creating an interagency committee to counter and curtail Russian intelligence activities. (Bloomberg, 05.03.17, RFE/RL, 05.05.17)

  • U.S. President Donald Trump said "it's a disgrace" for Democrats to embrace a discredited dossier by ex-British spy Christopher Steele to attack him and argue for Congress to create a special commission to investigate Russian intervention in the 2016 election. Referring to Steele, Trump said, "He made it up." Steele's sources also leveled scandalous charges against prominent, high-tech venture capitalist Aleksey Gubarev, who has denied all of this. He has sued BuzzFeed for libel in a Florida court and has sued Steele and his Orbis Business Intelligence firm in a London court, claiming great financial losses. (The Washington Times, 05.01.17)

  • Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley of Iowa pressed FBI Director James Comey over what the Republican lawmaker called “materially inconsistent” responses from the FBI on how much it’s Russia probe has relied on unverified sources, including an unsubstantiated and salacious dossier on U.S. President Donald Trump’s links and activities in Russia before his candidacy. "Much of the dossier has been proven wrong," Grassley said, asking if the FBI had paid for access to the report and warning that the agency’s credibility was at stake. (Bloomberg, 05.03.17)

  • U.S. President Donald Trump said China may have hacked the emails of Democratic officials to meddle with the 2016 presidential election, countering the view of U.S. intelligence officials who have said Moscow orchestrated the hacks. “Knowing something about hacking, if you don't catch a hacker, okay, in the act, it's very hard to say who did the hacking. With that being said, I'll go along with Russia. Could've been China, could've been a lot of different groups,” he said in an interview transcript published on April 30. (Reuters, 05.01.17, CBS News, 04.30.17)

  • Hillary Clinton said on May 2 that she's taking responsibility for her 2016 election loss but believes misogyny, Russian interference and questionable decisions by the FBI influenced the outcome. "He [Russian President Vladimir Putin] certainly interfered in our election," Clinton said. "And it's clear he interfered to hurt me and help my opponent." U.S. President Donald Trump quickly took Twitter to call Clinton out. Trump claimed the FBI director actually helped Clinton during the election and said Democrats used Russian hackers as a scapegoat for their loss. (AP, 05.02.17, The Washington Post, 05.03.17)

  • FBI Director James Comey told the Senate Judiciary Committee that Russia is continuing to meddle in U.S. politics. “Certainly in my view, the greatest threat of any nation on earth given their intention and their capability," Comey said of Russia. “We have high confidence that the North Koreans hacked Sony, we have high confidence that the Russians did the hacking of the DNC and the other organizations,” Comey told the Senate Judiciary Committee on May 3. “You had some of the Russia's greatest criminal hackers and intelligence agency hackers working together,” he said. “I think one of the lessons that particularly the Russians may have drawn from this is that this works. And so as I said last—a month or so ago I expect to see them back in 2018, especially 2020,” he said. (The Washington Post, 05.03.17, RFE/RL, 05.04.17)

  • FBI Director James Comey confirmed reports that he offered to write a newspaper op-ed article in August warning of Russian attempts to interfere in the election but said the Obama administration declined at that point to take him up on the offer. (Bloomberg, 05.03.17)

  • The Senate Intelligence Committee, seeking to accelerate its investigation into Russian meddling in the presidential election, has asked a number of high-profile Trump campaign associates to hand over emails and other records of communications and dealings with Russian officials and businesspeople. (The New York Times, 05.05.17)

  • The leaders of a House of Representatives probe of possible Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. election said they had a "successful" hearing on May 4, projecting unity after a partisan division had threatened to derail their investigation. Rep. Mike Conaway, the new Republican leader of the House Intelligence Committee probe, and Rep. Adam Schiff, the top Democrat, addressed reporters together after FBI Director James Comey and Admiral Mike Rogers, the director of the National Security Agency, testified at a classified hearing. (Reuters, 05.04.17)

  • Russia has succeeded in sowing political discord in the United States by interfering in the 2016 presidential election, which will likely prompt Moscow to try it again, two former top U.S. intelligence figures say. Former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper and former House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Rogers agreed during a Harvard University panel discussion that Russia likely has concluded it achieved its goals and could attempt to repeat its success in elections in France and Germany this year. (RFE/RL, 05.03.17)

  • U.S. President Donald Trump is criticizing former President Barack Obama’s national security adviser Susan Rice for declining to testify at a Senate hearing on Russian interference in the 2016 election. (AP, 05.04.17)

  • Asked again about Russia’s alleged interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters, “We never interfere in other countries’ politics and we want no one to meddle in ours,” warning that Western NGOs have “unfortunately” violated Russia’s sovereignty “for years” by attempting to influence Russia’s political process. Accusations of Russian meddling in the U.S. elections “were never proven by anything or anybody,” he told a joint press conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Sochi, dismissing them as “just gossip.” (The Moscow Times, 05.02.17, Bloomberg, 05.02.17)

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin discusses allegations of interfering in the U.S. election of President Donald Trump and other geopolitical topics with controversial director Oliver Stone in a documentary to be aired on Showtime. The interviews will be aired over four nights starting June 12. Stone and Putin will also discuss Joseph Stalin, Ronald Reagan, Edward Snowden's asylum in Moscow, NATO and Putin's relationships with Presidents Clinton, George W. Bush, Obama and Trump. (Bloomberg, 05.01.17, The Boston Globe, 05.02.17)

Energy exports from CIS:

  • Russia considers it sensible to extend the existing deal with OPEC to curb crude output for at least six months, given current market dynamics, according to a government official with knowledge of the matter. Russia exceeded its target of cutting production by 300,000 barrels a day from October levels by 790 barrels a day on May 1, said the official who asked not to be identified as the information isn’t public. (Bloomberg, 05.03.17)

  • The hearing of a tax dispute between Russia and U.S. oil and gas major ExxonMobil at the Stockholm arbitration court has been delayed while the two sides continue talks to try to reach a settlement, Russia's finance ministry said. (Reuters, 04.28.17)

Bilateral economic ties:

  • No significant developments.

Other bilateral issues:

  • Translating “America First” into diplomatic policy, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has proclaimed that the United States can’t always afford to condition its foreign relationships and national security imperatives on countries adopting American values like human rights. On Russia, Tillerson said “there’s almost no trust” between the world’s greatest nuclear powers, but that the administration was trying to rebuild trust by looking at one issue at a time. First up is Syria, as Washington and Moscow see if they can get a cease-fire that can hold. (AP, 05.04.17)

  • The United States will not prepare a new round of sanctions against Russia in the near future. The U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations has instead decided to focus on a measure to counter Russian influence in Eastern Europe. “We’re going to do an Iran sanctions bill … We're also working together on a bill to push back against Russia in Europe and what they're doing,” Republican Sen. Bob Corker, the committee's chairman, told the Politico news site. “Those are the two courses of action that we're taking.” (The Moscow Times, 05.02.17)

  • U.S. President Donald Trump operating on Day 100 is not the same as the one who took office in January, when he was determined to make nice with Russia, make trouble for China and make war on elites. He was talked out of lifting sanctions on Russia, moving the American embassy to Jerusalem and abandoning the “one China” policy. (New York Times, 04.29.17)

  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on May 4 that the Finnish capital Helsinki would be an appropriate venue for a possible meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump, should such a meeting be proposed by Washington. Lavrov will meet U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson soon to try to pave the way for the summit. Tillerson said he and Lavrov would meet in Alaska next week. (Wall Street Journal, 05.03.17, Reuters, 05.04.17)

  • Even though he named Michael Flynn to be his top national security aide, U.S. President Donald Trump on May 5 laid the blame for any flaws in Flynn’s vetting at the feet of his predecessor. Former acting Attorney General Sally Yates will tell Congress that in the early days of the administration, she expressed alarm to the White House about Trump's national security adviser Flynn's contacts with the Russian ambassador to the United States. (AP, 04.28.17, RFE/RL, 05.03.17)

  • Dmitriy Aleksandrovich Karpenko, 33, and Alexey Krutilin, 27, two Russian nationals arrested in the United States last October on charges of conspiring to export sensitive military technology from the United States to Russia, were sentenced to time served on May 5, a spokesman for U.S. prosecutors said. (Reuters, 04.29.17)

  • The U.S. is losing global influence to Russia and China by allowing its nuclear power industry to stagnate, according to a new study by the Global Nexus Initiative. (The National Interest, 05.04.17)

  • The United States is "deeply troubled" by Russia's decision to blacklist Open Russia and two other pro-democracy groups, the U.S. State Department said late on April 28. (RFE/RL, 04.29.17)

  • U.S.-based Rainbow Road is one of a growing number of LGBT groups who are working to help protect and evacuate gay men in Chechnya. (South Florida Gay News, 04.29.17)

  • A tall-sized latte at a Moscow Starbucks costs 255 rubles (about $4.50), while the price is slightly lower in other Russian cities. ValuePenguin says this is the equivalent of a $12.32 latte in the United States, where a tall latte actually runs customers about $2.75—the lowest price Starbucks customers pay anywhere in the world. (The Moscow Times, 05.02.17)

II. Russia’s domestic news

Politics, economy and energy:

  • When Russian President Vladimir Putin inevitably prevails in the March 2018 presidential elections, he is expected to have a ready-made plan for improving Russia’s economy. The plan’s stated aim—GDP growth rate of 3.5% or higher—has been shaped by Putin himself. (The Moscow Times, 05.04.17)

  • A new opinion poll indicates that 48% of voters would cast their ballots for incumbent Russian President Vladimir Putin if Russia's presidential election were held in the near future. The figure in the April 21-24 poll by the independent Levada-Center was down from 62% in a similar poll in April 2015 and 53% in January 2016. (RFE/RL, 05.04.17)

  • A Russian court rejected an appeal by opposition leader Alexey Navalny May 3, confirming an earlier embezzlement conviction in a ruling that could create a new obstacle for his ambitions to run in next year’s presidential elections. Navalny was attacked last week by a man who threw antiseptic in his face. On April 27, a man now believed to be Alexander Petrunko, a radical pro-Kremlin activist, attacked Navalny outside his office in Moscow, spraying him in the face with a green antiseptic. In a blog post May 2, Navalny said he’d lost 80% of vision in one eye as a result. Navalny also said on May 4 that authorities in Russia were stopping him going abroad to seek urgent medical treatment. (Bloomberg, 05.03.17, The Moscow Times, 05.02.17, Reuters, 05.04.17)

  • Under the slogan “I’m fed up,” demonstrators urging Russian President Vladimir Putin not to run for a fourth term rallied in cities across Russia on April 29. Dozens were arrested in St. Petersburg and elsewhere. (AP, 04.29.17)

  • According to a new poll released by the independent Levada Center, 75% of Russians are proud to be citizens of Russia. Their top three sources of pride are the country's natural resources (40%), its history (40%) and its armed forces (37%). (The Moscow Times, 05.04.17)

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin has told Russia’s human rights ombudsman he will speak with law enforcement officials about the reported torture of gay men in Chechnya. (AP, 05.05.17)

  • Though television is still the most common source of information about current events in Russia, 32% of the population now says it turns to the Web for its news, according to by the state-run polling agency VTsIOM. (The Moscow Times, 05.04.17)

  • Yevgeniya Albats, editor-in-chief of liberal Russian publication The New Times, says she received a warning from Russia's internet watchdog Roskomnadzor following an article about a former Russian soldier who went to fight alongside jihadi groups in Syria. (The Moscow Times, 05.05.17)

  • Russia's Reserve Fund increased slightly to $16.34 billion as of May 1 from $16.19 billion a month earlier, finance ministry data showed on May 2. (Reuters, 05.02.17)

  • Testing of the hermetic enclosure system of the reactor containment building has started at unit one of the Leningrad Phase II nuclear power plant under construction in western Russia. (World Nuclear News, 05.04.17)

  • This week, investors in Russia’s Sistema conglomerate got a shock as Rosneft launched a $1.9 billion lawsuit against it, wiping more than a third off the company’s market value in two days. (Bloomberg, 05.05.17)

Defense and aerospace:

  • No significant developments.

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

  • Russia has kicked off the trial of prominent New York real-estate developer Janna Bullock, who is accused of stealing hundreds of millions of dollars in state funds to fuel her lavish lifestyle. (RFE/RL, 05.03.17)

III. Foreign affairs, trade and investment

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with other “far abroad” countries:

  • During her visit to Sochi, German Chancellor Angela Merkel asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to use his influence to protect the rights of gays in Chechnya. Merkel also raised concerns about Jehovah’s Witnesses in Russia and the Russian Supreme Court’s recent decision to outlaw the religious group. Putin did not respond to Merkel’s comments about gays or Jehovah’s Witnesses. When asked about concerns of possible Russian interference in Germany’s federal election in September, Merkel said, “All I can say is that I’m not a fearful person.” (The Moscow Times, 05.02.17, Bloomberg, 05.02.17, The Moscow Times, 05.02.17)

  • The head of Germany's domestic intelligence agency accused Russian rivals of gathering large amounts of political data in cyberattacks and said it was up to the Kremlin to decide whether it wanted to put it to use ahead of Germany's September elections. Germany's domestic intelligence agency has said it expects more cyberattacks directed against German politicians and officials ahead of a general election in September. (Reuters, 05.04.17, RFE/RL, 05.04.17)

  • The German government says there are no plans to invite Russia to return to the club of leading industrialized nations. (AP, 04.28.17)

  • If Russian President Vladimir Putin has a Trojan horse in German politics, it’s an estimated 2.5 million voters who speak Russian and make up the country’s largest minority voting bloc. (Bloomberg, 05.02.17)

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin said on May 3 that Russia's relationship with Turkey had fully recovered after what he called a crisis caused by Ankara's shooting down of a Russian warplane near the Syrian border in 2015. Russia will be able to resume exports of wheat to Turkey, its second-biggest customer, without restrictions as of May 4. As for tomatoes, Turkey will be able to sell the food to Russia in seasons when the country can’t grow sufficient amounts. Russia has accounted for 70% of all Turkish exports of the product. (Reuters, 05.03.17, Bloomberg, 05.03.17)

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold talks with Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni in the Russian city of Sochi on May 17. (Reuters, 05.02.17)

  • Far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen said on May 2 she was better placed than her rival, centrist Emmanuel Macron, to defend France's interests in what she called the "new world" of U.S. President Donald Trump and Russia's Vladimir Putin. Macron claimed allies of Le Pen have been spreading "false information and lies," who were "in certain cases linked to Russian interests." According to the Riga-based investigative journalism project “Re:Baltica,” a Latvian financier named Vilis Dambins reportedly acted as a go-between for the Russian government and Marine Le Pen throughout the past year. (The Moscow Times, 05.02.17, Reuters, 05.02.17, Reuters, 05.04.17)

  • Some 61% of Russians polled by state-pollster VTsIOM sided with French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen while Emmanuel Macron, the most likely winner of the second round, elicits warm feelings with just 8%. (The Moscow Times, 05.02.17)

  • Poland’s Foreign Ministry said May 2 that French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron made an “unacceptable” comparison when he likened Poland’s government to the “regimes” of Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Hungary’s Viktor Orban. (AP, 05.02.17)

  • Thousands of protesters in Hungary rejected the government’s growing ties to Russia on April 30, the 13th anniversary of Hungary’s European Union membership. (Reuters, 05.02.17)

  • The head of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said on May 2 he expected the bank's shareholders to reject a renewed bid by Moscow to end a ban on fresh EBRD investments in Russia. (Reuters, 05.02.17)

  • President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines said on May 1 that he might not accept U.S. President Donald Trump’s invitation to visit the White House, because he was “tied up” with a busy schedule. “I cannot make any definite promise,” Duterte said, adding, “I’m supposed to go to Russia, I’m also supposed to go to Israel.” (New York Times, 05.01.17)

  • When North Korean leader Kim Jong Un sent Lunar New Year greetings this year, the first card went to Russian President Vladimir Putin, ahead of leaders from China and other allies of the isolated country, according to its official news agency. (Reuters, 05.03.17)

  • Russia has replaced the U.S. as young Arabs’ most valued international ally. The annual Arab Youth Survey showed a 12-point rise in the number of respondents identifying Russia as their most trusted ally—up to 21% from just 9% in 2016. The U.S., by contrast, dropped to 17%, from 25% a year ago. (Financial Times, 05.03.17)

  • A Montenegrin court on May 5 postponed a hearing to confirm the indictments of 14 people, including two Russians and two pro-Russia opposition leaders, who are charged with plotting to overthrow the government last year. (RFE/RL, 05.05.17)

  • Russian protest performance artist Pyotr Pavlensky has received political asylum in France. (RFE/RL, 05.04.17)

China:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin said that he looks forward to meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Belt and Road Forum on International Cooperation to be held in Beijing next month. Putin said that his country enthusiastically echoes China's Belt and Road Initiative while meeting with the visiting member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China’s Central Committee Li Zhanshu. While in Moscow, Li also met Putin’s chief of staff, Anton Vaino. (Xinhua, 04.27.17, Kremlin.ru, 04.26.17)

Ukraine:

  • Five Ukrainian soldiers were reported as wounded in action in eastern Ukraine on May 1, according to UNIAN. The Ukrainian military fired more than 1,130 munitions at the settlements of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic over the same period of time, Donbas separatists told TASS. (Russia Matters, 05.02.17)

  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel told Russian President Vladimir Putin that European Union sanctions will have to remain on Russia, in a chilly encounter in the Black Sea resort of Sochi. Merkel said that she would like to be able to lift the economic penalties, but the Minsk process remains “arduous” with small steps forward and steps back. Merkel called on all sides in the conflict in Ukraine to work toward the ceasefire envisaged by the Minsk accords. Merkel also said there was no need to replace the Minsk process. (Reuters, 05.02.17, Bloomberg, 05.02.17)

  • Former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych is being tried in absentia on high treason charges in Kiev. Ukraine has also started returning an estimated $1.5 billion in assets allegedly stolen from the Kiev government by Yanukovych and his associates. (RFE/RL, 05.04.17, RFE/RL, 04.28.17)

  • Russia has sent a request to the international police agency Interpol for the arrest and extradition of former Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, claiming he killed Russian soldiers in Chechnya in the 1990s. Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said Yatsenyuk had never been to Chechnya and that “Yatsenyuk’s persecution by Russia is politically motivated.” (AP, 04.28.17)

  • Polish authorities say they have arrested an Austrian man suspected of committing war crimes in eastern Ukraine, though there were conflicting reports about whether he fought with Kiev's forces or alongside Russia-backed separatists. (RFE/RL, 04.30.17)

  • Guillaume Cuvelier, a prominent militant who fought with Russian-backed separatists in Ukraine and participated in far-right European politics, recently completed U.S. Army training and is serving in an American infantry division in Hawaii, according to Army and other records. (The Washington Post, 05.01.17)

  • The law aimed at restricting express money transfers from Russia to other states with the help of foreign payment systems came into force on May 4. The document is primarily a response of the Russian side to the actions of Ukraine related to the ban of Russian payment systems. (TASS, 05.04.17)

  • Andriy Artemenko, a Ukrainian lawmaker whose plan to resolve the three-year-old conflict in Ukraine reportedly wound up on the desk of then-U.S. national security adviser Michael Flynn, has been stripped of his Ukrainian citizenship by presidential decree, the State Migration Service says. (RFE/RL, 05.05.17)

  • A Washington lobbying firm that worked under the direction of Paul Manafort’s firm registered April 28 with the Justice Department as a foreign agent—the same day a spokesman for Manafort backed off his previous statement that Manafort had decided to register. The AP reported in August that Manafort’s consulting firm covertly orchestrated the lobbying and public opinion operation on behalf of Viktor Yanukovych’s political party in Ukraine. (AP, 04.28.17)

Russia’s other post-Soviet neighbors:

  • The United States has extended sanctions relief for Belarus by another six months in the continuation of a policy started under the Obama administration to encourage the country to turn away from traditional ally Russia and toward the West. (RFE/RL, 04.29.17)

  • Uzbekistan's police routinely uncover militant Islamists among Uzbek migrants returning home and plan to expose those who remain abroad via social networks, Interior Minister Abdusalom Azizov said on May 2. Azizov claimed most Islamist suspects returning to Uzbekistan had been radicalized while living abroad, "in Russia, Turkey, other countries." (Reuters, 05.02.17)

  • Kyrgyzstan is holding a national day of mourning on April 30 to commemorate at least 24 people killed a day earlier when a landslide swept through a village in the country's south. (RFE/RL, 04.30.17)

  • Turkey and Azerbaijan have launched joint military exercises lasting from May 1 to May 5 with about 1,000 troops participating, Baku's Defense Ministry says. (RFE/RL, 05.03.17)

  • The United States is urging authorities in Azerbaijan to conduct a transparent investigation into the death of an Azerbaijani blogger following his arrest on drug-trafficking charges that rights activists contend were fabricated. (RFE/RL, 05.04.17)

  • Turkmenistan's prosecutor-general has been dismissed for "failing to fight corruption among law enforcement officers," Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov said. (RFE/RL, 05.05.17)

IV. Quoteworthy

  • No significant developments.