Russia in Review, March 17-24, 2017

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security:

  • A federal judge has handed a partial victory to South Carolina in its lawsuit over an unfinished nuclear fuel project, ruling that federal authorities must find somewhere else to store one metric ton of plutonium. The would-be plant is key to a nonproliferation agreement with Russia in which both countries committed to turning 34 metric tons of plutonium into fuel. In early October, the Kremlin decided to suspend its implementation of the Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement. (AP, 03.21.17, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, 12.01.16)

Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:

  • The Kremlin says Iranian President Hassan Rohani will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a March 27-28 visit to Moscow. Putin's press service said the two leaders will hold talks on March 28, paying "special attention" to trade ties and investments. They will discuss "implementation of major joint projects in the spheres of energy and transportation infrastructure," the statement said. (RFE/RL, 03.23.17)
  • U.S. President Donald Trump has told a delegation from Iraq that "nobody" can figure out why former President Barack Obama signed a nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers. (RFE/RL, 03.20.17)

Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations:

  • The White House confirmed that U.S. President Donald Trump would attend a gathering of NATO leaders in Brussels on May 25, a move that could help reassure U.S. allies about his administration's commitment to Europe's security. (The Washington Post, 03.21.17)
  • A U.S.-led battalion of more than 1,100 soldiers will be deployed in Poland from the start of April, a U.S. commander said on March 20. More than 900 U.S. soldiers, around 150 British personnel and some 120 Romanian troops will make up the battlegroup in northeastern Poland, one of four multinational formations across the Baltic region that Russia has condemned as an aggressive strategy on its frontiers. (Reuters, 03.20.17)
  • NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg says the alliance sees “no imminent danger” of a conventional military assault in the Baltic Sea region. Stoltenberg says “we are worried” about Russia’s actions and possible intentions, but at the same time “it is important that we do not dramatize the situation.” (AP, 03.17.17)
  • The head of NATO's military committee recently held a telephone call with the chief of the Russian general staff, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on March 22. The Russian Defense Ministry said that Petr Pavel and Valery Gerasimov discussed security, the prospects of restoring military interaction, the prevention of incidents and the participation of the alliance's representatives in events held by Russia's Defense Ministry. “When tensions are high it's even more important that we talk together and that we have open lines of military and political communications," Stoltenberg said. (Reuters, 03.22.17, RFE/RL, 03.23.17)
  • NATO has not received an invitation to send observers to monitor the Belarusian-Russian army exercise Zapad 2017 for now but welcomes the statement made by Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko, who mentioned the intention to make the army exercise as transparent as possible. (Belta, 03.21.17)
  • At a news conference March 17 with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Donald Trump “reiterated” his “need for our NATO allies to pay their fair share for the cost of defense.” He followed up on March 18 with an impolitic double-barreled tweet shot, writing that Germany owes America “vast sums of money” for NATO. Germany has rejected Trump's assertion that it owes "vast sums of money" to NATO and the United States for defense. (The Washington Post, 03.18.17, RFE/RL, 03.19.17)
  • The U.S. Senate will vote next week on approving Montenegro's bid to become the newest member of the NATO alliance. Montenegro is hardly a formidable military force. With its 2,000-strong army, the scenic country would hardly boost the West’s defense in any confrontation with Russia. Last week, Republican Sen. John McCain slammed his party colleague, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, accusing him of “working for Vladimir Putin” after Paul blocked the passage of a treaty that would allow Montenegro to move forward with joining NATO. Montenegro is the only Adriatic state that is not yet a NATO member. (AP, 03.22.17, RFE/RL, 03.24.17)
  • Serbia’s prime minister pledged on March 24 that the Balkan country will never join NATO or any other military alliance as Serbia marked the 18th anniversary of the start of NATO airstrikes that stopped its crackdown in Kosovo. (AP, 03.24.17)

Missile defense:

  • No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on March 23 Russia was willing to discuss reducing nuclear weapons. “We are ready to discuss the possibility of further reducing nuclear capacity, but only if all factors are taken into account and not only the number of strategic offensive weapons," Lavrov was quoted as saying. He said it was "absolutely clear the time had not yet come" for eliminating all nuclear arms. (Reuters, 03.23.17)
  • The U.S. Air Force is quietly shrinking its deployed force of land-based nuclear missiles as part of a holdover Obama administration plan to comply with an arms control treaty with Russia. The reduction to 400 missiles from 450 is the first for the intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM, force in a decade—when the arsenal came down from 500 such weapons. (AP, 03.20.17)
  • U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. Jack Weinstein who oversees the United States’ atomic weapons arsenal has expressed concern over what he described as “much more aggressive” behavior by Russia in recent years, saying it justifies the need for a strengthened and modernized nuclear deterrent force in this country. “If you look at the Russian behavior since 2010 to the way they are now, it’s much more aggressive—much more, I’ll say, bellicose,” he said. “I woke up one day, and the Russians had invaded a sovereign nation, which was not something that was on my scope.” Weinstein is among those who have accused the Russians of violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. (New York Times, 03.22.17)

Counter-terrorism:

  • Defeating the Islamic State is the top U.S. priority in the Middle East, but other countries will be expected to contribute more to stabilize Iraq and Syria once the militants are expelled, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said at the State Department at the start of a two-day strategy session of more than 60 countries and international organizations in the U.S.-led coalition to defeat the Islamic State. The Americans need "a clear idea" of what they expect from Russia—which U.S. President Donald Trump has said could work together with the coalition on counterterrorism tasks—and how much pressure Moscow will put on Iran to end Syria's six-year civil war, French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault said at the meeting. (The Washington Post, 03.22.17)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin has offered his condolences to British Prime Minister Theresa May in connection with the tragic consequences of the terrorist attack in central London. On March 22, a terrorist drove a car into pedestrians, including three police officers, on Westminster Bridge in London before he attacked a police officer outside the Houses of Parliament. The assailant was shot by the police. The attack has left five people dead, including a police officer. 40 others were injured. (TASS, 03.22.17)
  • Six soldiers from Russia’s National Guard were killed and three were injured during an overnight raid on Stanitsa Naurskaya, a military town in the north of Chechnya, reports the Interfax news site. Six insurgents were also killed and two of them were discovered wearing explosive belts. (The Moscow Times, 03.24.17)
  • A suspect in the deadly 2002 hostage-taking attack on a Moscow theater has been sentenced to 19 years in prison. The Moscow Regional Military Court pronounced the sentence on March 21 after convicting Khasan Zakayev of assisting Chechen militants in the attack on the Dubrovka Theater during a performance of the musical Nord-Ost. (RFE/RL, 03.21.17)
  • Several European diplomats said they were unhappy that U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson had not offered to hold a NATO meeting in Washington later this week, given that 26 alliance foreign ministers and Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg would be there for a meeting of the coalition against the Islamic State militant group. (Reuters, 03.21.17)

Conflict in Syria:

  • Russia is helping the YPG, a Kurdish militia in Syria, to establish a military base in northern Syria that will be used to train its fighters, the militia says. But Russian officials have insisted there are no plans to open new bases in Syria and the one near Afrin serves as a "reconciliation center." (BBC, 03.20.17)
  • Russia’s foreign ministry says the Israeli ambassador to Moscow was summoned to explain an exchange of fire last week between Israeli jets and Syrian government forces. Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov says Russia “expressed concern” over the exchange in which Syria fired missiles at Israeli warplanes that were on a mission to destroy a weapons convoy destined for Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese militant group. (AP, 03.20.17)
    • Russia and other world powers must move to limit Iran's growing military strength in Syria because it poses a regional threat, the director-general of Israel's Intelligence Ministry told Reuters in an interview. (Reuters, 03.21.17)
  • A senior Turkish official says his country has warned Russia that Ankara will retaliate against any new cross-border attack on Turkish troops from Syrian Kurdish-held areas in Syria. (AP, 03.23.17)
  • Hundreds of Syrian fighters and an undisclosed number of U.S. Special Operations forces launched a large-scale heliborne assault on the Islamic State in Syria, the Pentagon said March 22. The operation began the night of March 21 and was focused around the area of the Tabqa Dam—a choke point on the Euphrates River that has been a key hub for the Islamic State and source of hydroelectric power for the region.  U.S.-backed Syrian fighters reached the dam on March 24.  (AP, 03.24.17, The Washington Post, 03.22.17)
  • Syrian government forces on March 20 regained control of parts of Damascus that were attacked and captured by rebels and militants the previous day, with the two-day fighting leaving dozens dead on both sides, the military and an activist group said. (AP, 03.20.17)
  • Six Russians affiliated with the private military company known as the “Wagner Group” died in Syria this year, an investigation by the news website RBC has revealed. RBC, working with the open-source investigation collective Conflict Intelligence Team, analyzed Russian social media and found evidence that six men aged 22 to 51 died this year while fighting in various provinces across Syria, including in the second Palmyra offensive. The men, who were former members of the Russian military, allegedly ranked from private to lieutenant-colonel. (The Moscow Times, 03.22.17)
  • Russian sappers began demining the historical part and residential quarters in Syria’s Palmyra, Col. Valery Ovdiyenko, commander of the mine clearance detachment of the Russian Armed Forces’ International Mine Action Center, told reporters. (TASS, 03.18.17)
  • Russia's Ambassador to Syria, Alexander Kinshchak, said one of the Russian embassy's buildings in Damascus had been damaged in clashes between government and opposition forces, Russian news agency RIA reported on March 20. (Reuters, 03.20.17)
  • Under the forty-nine-year agreement inked late last year by Russia and Syria, “the maximum number of the Russian warships allowed at the Russian naval facility at one time is 11, including nuclear-powered warships, providing that nuclear and ecological security rules are observed.” The specification allowing nuclear-powered warships means that Russia wants to be able to base in Syria large surface ships, namely Kirov-class nuclear-powered battle cruisers, as well as nuclear submarines. (The National Interest, 03.18.17)
  • The Trump administration is seeking "interim zones of stability" in Iraq and Syria as Islamic State forces are expelled, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said March 22. The Turkish military, with some assistance from rebels, the United States and Russia, has pushed the Islamic State from a zone of several thousand square miles inside Syria along the Turkish border. It has declared this a "safe zone," and indicated that it may begin sending Syrian refugees back inside. (The Washington Post, 03.22.17)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Kazakh counterpart Nursultan Nazarbayev discussed the Syria crisis by phone, the Kremlin said on March 18, after peace talks in Kazakhstan closed without any substantive negotiations. (Reuters, 03.18.17)

Cyber security:

  • One of the two Russian Federal Security Service agents indicted by U.S. officials this week worked as an undercover officer at Renaissance Capital, a Moscow investment bank owned by billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov. The officer, identified in the Justice Department indictment as Igor Sushchin, was fired from the bank on March 16, the day after U.S. officials announced the charges related to the massive 2014 hack of Yahoo. (RFE/RL, 03.18.17)
  • British intelligence agency GCHQ was the first agency to warn the United States government that Russia was hacking Democratic Party emails during the presidential campaign. (New York Times, 03.17.17)

Russia’s alleged interference in U.S. elections:

  • FBI Director James Comey told the House Intelligence Committee during a hearing on Russia’s alleged interference in U.S. elections on March 20 that the FBI is conducting a broad inquiry into Moscow’s efforts to “interfere” in the presidential election, an effort he said began in late July of last year. “That includes investigating the nature of any links between individuals associated with the Trump campaign and the Russian government and whether there was any coordination between the campaign and Russia’s efforts,” he said. While some Republicans on the committee suggested Democrat Hillary Clinton’s campaign might have collaborated with Russians, Comey bluntly rejected that notion. He said Russian President Vladimir Putin’s goal was to undermine the former secretary of state’s candidacy while aiding Trump’s, as U.S. intelligence agencies found in a report published in January. As of August and September, the Russians expected Clinton to win based on polling that indicated “Trump didn’t stand a chance,” Comey said, so their thinking was “let’s just focus on undermining her.” “They’ll be back,” he said of Russia. “They’ll be back in 2020, they may be back in 2018.” Comey also said on March 20 that there is no evidence to support Trump’s allegation that his predecessor “wiretapped” Trump Tower last year. (Bloomberg, 03.20.17)
  • U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted during the House Intelligence Committee hearings on Russia: “FBI Director Comey refuses to deny he briefed President Obama on calls made by Michael Flynn to Russia.” Trump also said that claims that his campaign colluded with Russia during the 2016 election were no more than a political ploy by disenchanted Democrats. “James Clapper and others stated that there is no evidence Potus colluded with Russia. This story is FAKE NEWS,” Trump tweeted on March 20, using an acronym for President of the United States and referring to the former director of national intelligence. “The Democrats made up and pushed the Russian story as an excuse for running a terrible campaign. Big advantage in Electoral College & lost!” (Bloomberg, 03.20.17, Bloomberg, 03.20.17)
  • White House press secretary Sean Spicer told reporters on March 20 that nothing had changed as a result of the hearing and that officials in President Barack Obama’s administration had said they had no evidence of collusion between Trump’s camp and Russia. (Bloomberg, 03.20.17)
  • U.S. Rep. Devin Nunes, the Republican chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, told hearings on Russia’s alleged interference in U.S. elections on March 20 that “the fact that Russia hacked U.S. election-related databases comes as no shock to this committee.” He also went on to reject the president’s claims that the Obama administration “wiretapped” Trump Tower last year, saying, “Let me be clear: we know there was not a wiretap on Trump Tower.” Early on in the public hearing, Nunes asked FBI Director James Comey and National Security Agency head Michael S. Rogers whether they had any evidence that Russia actually changed the vote tallies in key states. Both men said there is no evidence that Russian meddling actually changed votes. Nunes also said on March 20 that he had seen "no evidence" of collusion between President Donald Trump's campaign and Russia during last year’s presidential campaign. In separate remarks made on March 22, Nunes accused U.S. spy agencies of abusing their surveillance powers by gathering and sharing information about Trump and his transition team, an unproven charge that was quickly embraced by the White House but threatened to derail the committee’s investigation of possible Trump campaign ties to Russia. (RFE/RL, 03.19.17, Bloomberg, 03.20.17, The Washington Post, 03.22.17, The Washington Post, 03.20.17)
  • Rep. Adam Schiff of California told the March 20 hearing on Russia’s alleged interference in U.S. elections there was “no crime” in Trump or his aides having legitimate connections with Russian interests. But he added, “If the Trump campaign, or anybody associated with it, aided or abetted the Russians, it would not only be a serious crime, it would also represent one of the most shocking betrayals of our democracy in history.” On March 22, Schiff said that U.S. intelligence and law-enforcement officials have "more than circumstantial evidence" of collusion between the Russian government and associates of President Donald Trump's 2016 campaign. (Bloomberg, 03.20.17, Wall Street Journal, 03.22.17)
  • The FBI has information that indicates associates of U.S. President Donald Trump communicated with suspected Russian operatives to possibly coordinate the release of information damaging to Hillary Clinton's campaign, U.S. officials told CNN. The FBI is now reviewing that information, which includes human intelligence, travel, business and phone records and accounts of in-person meetings, according to those U.S. officials. The information is raising the suspicions of FBI counterintelligence investigators that the coordination may have taken place, though officials cautioned that the information was not conclusive and that the investigation is ongoing. (CNN, 03.23.17)
  • U.S. President Donald Trump’s former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, secretly worked for Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska to advance the interests of Russian President Vladimir Putin a decade ago and proposed an ambitious political strategy to undermine anti-Russian opposition across former Soviet republics in 2005. Manafort pitched the plans to Deripaska, a close Putin ally with whom Manafort eventually signed a $10 million annual contract beginning in 2006. In a statement to the AP, Manafort confirmed that he worked for Deripaska in various countries but said the work was being unfairly cast as “inappropriate or nefarious” as part of a “smear campaign.” In response to questions about Manafort’s consulting firm, a spokesman for Deripaska in 2008—at least three years after they began working together—said Deripaska had never hired the firm. (AP, 03.22.17, Wall Street Journal, 03.23.17)
    • White House press secretary Sean Spicer told reporters March 20 that some of those said to have contacts with Russia were just “hanger-ons” to Trump’s campaign—a description he said applied to Carter Page, who Trump last March cited as a foreign policy adviser—and that Paul Manafort, who led Trump’s campaign during the Republican convention, “played a limited role for a limited time.” (Bloomberg, 03.20.17)
    • House Intelligence Committee Chair Devin Nunes said that Paul Manafort, Trump’s former campaign chairman, has volunteered to testify before his committee, which is investigating alleged ties between Trump campaign officials and Russia as well as the Kremlin’s activities in the 2016 election. (The Washington Post, 03.24.17)
    • Even as Trump officials downplay Paul Manafort's role, his decade-long business associate Rick Gates remains entrenched in the president's operation. Gates is one of four people leading a Trump-blessed group that defends the president's agenda. As recently as last week, he was at the White House to meet with officials as part of that work. Through Manafort, Gates is tied to many of the same business titans from Ukraine and Russia, including Oleg Deripaska, a Russian oligarch with strong ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin. (The Washington Post, 03.23.17)
    • Also see the section on Ukraine.
  • Rumors saying U.S. President Donald Trump’s election team coordinated actions during the 2016 presidential election in the United States with Russia has no trustworthy evidence to rely upon and cannot be perceived seriously, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said when asked for a comment on CNN’s report. Peskov has earlier said a U.S. intelligence committee is “confused” after it heard testimony from FBI Director James Comey about an investigation into Trump associates’ Russia ties. Peskov told reporters March 21 that “the hearing participants are confused about the situation,” adding: “They are trying to find confirmation of their own conclusions but can’t find either proof or confirmation and are going round in circles.” (TASS, 03.23.17, AP, 03.21.17)
  • In a new press release, Alfa Bank, the largest private commercial bank in Russia, says it has no ties to the Trump Organization, following reports that the FBI is again investigating computer links between the two. According to Alfa Bank, the “false impression” of ties to the Trump Organization is the result of new cyber-attacks this February and March on the bank’s computers, which repeatedly bombarded the Trump Organization’s servers with DNS-requests from servers located in the United States. (The Moscow Times, 03.20.17)
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden said March 22 he’s concerned about an apparent “romance” between the Trump administration and Russian President Vladimir Putin. While declining to comment on an FBI probe of possible links between Russia and Trump associates, Biden said “the whole notion that there’s still this romance with Putin” was worrisome. Biden called for the creation of a select committee to conduct a probe of Russian interference. (AP, 03.22.17, The Washington Post, 03.23.17)

Energy exports from CIS:

  • Russia's private oil producers are ditching their skepticism and lining up behind an extension of a global deal to cut output after previous oil price increases compensated for lost income. Russian state oil companies Rosneft and Gazprom Neft along with private Lukoil account for the bulk of Russia's cuts. Russia had cut output by 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) by mid-March out of the targeted 300,000 bpd, now expected by the end of April. (Reuters, 03.24.17)
  • The  European Commission, sensing that there may ultimately be no legal basis to block approval of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, is delaying it as long as possible, hoping to get past 2019—the date when Russia must renegotiate a gas transit deal with Ukraine. (Reuters, 03.24.17)

Bilateral economic ties:

  • No significant developments.

Other bilateral issues:

  • Secretary of State Rex Tillerson will travel to Russia next month, a week after a NATO summit meeting he is skipping, State Department officials said March 20. State Department officials would not confirm the reason Tillerson will skip the meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Brussels on April 5 and 6. A State Department spokesman said March 20 that U.S. officials have proposed new dates for the foreign ministers' NATO meeting in hopes that Tillerson can attend. NATO diplomats said on March 24 that NATO foreign ministers now aim to meet the new U.S. secretary of state on March 31. (AP, 03.21.17, Reuters, 03.21.17, The Washington Post, 03.21.17, Reuters, 03.24.17)
  • Relations with the U.S. “are in an expectant pause” until the Trump administration fills senior posts, while allegations of Russian interference in other countries’ elections, including in France, are “completely fictional,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, in remarks to the military academy of the general staff in Moscow posted on the ministry’s Facebook page. (Bloomberg, 03.23.17)
  • Cash that flowed from Russia through a vast money-laundering network sometimes ended up passing through the world’s largest banks, the Guardian reported, citing a cache of financial records it reviewed. The documents contain details of about 70,000 banking transactions, including 1,920 involving firms based in the U.K. and 373 in the U.S., the newspaper said. The records indicate at least $20 billion moved out of Russia between 2010 and 2014, and that some of it ended up at overseas banks. The flows are tied to a network dubbed the Global Laundromat, the subject of a 2014 report by the Organized Crime & Corruption Reporting Project, an investigative journalism group that provided some of the documents, the paper said. Standard Chartered Plc, UBS Group AG, Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp., Barclays Plc and ING Groep NV handled amounts ranging from $2 million to $37 million, it said. (Bloomberg, 03.20.17)
  • Russia’s lower house of parliament is launching an investigation into U.S. news media that operate in Russia, a move that comes amid growing suspicion in America of Russian interference. (AP, 03.18.17)
  • Former national security adviser Michael Flynn interacted with a graduate student with dual Russian and British nationalities at a 2014 U.K. security conference, a contact that came to the notice of U.S. intelligence but that Flynn, then the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, didn't disclose, according to people familiar with the matter. Flynn met Svetlana Lokhova at the Cambridge Intelligence Seminar, a gathering of former intelligence officials hosted at Cambridge University, in February 2014. (Wall Street Journal, 03.18.17)
  • A Reuters review found that at least 63 individuals with Russian passports or addresses have bought at least $98.4 million worth of property in seven Trump-branded luxury towers in southern Florida. (Reuters, 03.17.17)
  • In an exclusive interview, Emin Agalarov—a Russian pop singer, real estate mogul and son of one of the country’s richest people—described an ongoing relationship with the Trump family, including post-election contact with the president himself. Among Agalarov’s most striking claims: that he and his billionaire developer father, Aras, had plans to build a Trump Tower in Russia that would now likely be under construction had Trump not run for office; that he has maintained contact with the Trump family since the election, and has exchanged messages with Donald Trump Jr. as recently as January and that President Trump himself sent a handwritten note to the Agalarovs in November after they congratulated him on his victory. (Forbes, 03.20.17)
  • Russia’s Federal Security Service said on March 23 it has curbed the activity of an inter-regional criminal group that organized weapons supplies from the United States via postal services. Two machine guns, two U.S.-made ArmaLite AR-15 rifles, eight guns and pistols, seven foreign and Russian-made carbines, handguns and large numbers of ammunition rounds and components for small arms have been seized. (TASS, 03.23.17)

II. Russia’s domestic news

Politics, economy and energy:

  • Russia's central bank cut its key rate to 9.75% on March 24 and signaled more cuts would probably follow as inflation is on the way to hitting the bank's target. Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said on March 24 that monetary policy could be tight for up to three years in order to limit inflation risks. She said that capital outflows from Russia were expected to remain low. Russian President Vladimir Putin told Nabiullina he plans to nominate her for a new 5-year term, praising her stewardship of the central bank as the country emerges from the longest recession this century. (Bloomberg, 03.22.17, Reuters, 03.24.17, Reuters, 03.24.17)
  • Twenty-six percent of Russians believe the 2014 ban on food imports from Western countries that had imposed sanctions on Russia did more harm than good, a poll by the state-run pollster VTsIOM showed March 24. The number has grown significantly since 2014, when only 9% of respondents expressed that opinion. (The Moscow Times, 03.24.17)
  • Russian citizens lose about 4,380 rubles ($75) annually because of Russian counter-sanctions. This is according to research carried out by the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Service along with the All-Russian Academy of Foreign Trade. (RBTH, 03.21.17)
  • Russia's lower house of parliament has approved legislation to exempt Russians who are under Western sanctions from paying tax in Russia if they are registered as taxpayers in foreign countries. (RFE/RL, 03.22.17)
  • The top decile of the richest Russians controls 89% of all household wealth in the country, a share “significantly higher than any other major economic power,” Credit Suisse Group AG said in its latest Global Wealth Report. That compares with 78% in the U.S. and 73% for China. Russia has an estimated 96 billionaires, a total surpassed only by China and the U.S., according to Credit Suisse. (Bloomberg, 03.22.17)
  • Retail sales, set for a 26th month of contraction, declined 2% last month from a year earlier after a drop of 2.3% in January, according to the median of 15 estimates in a Bloomberg survey. Wages adjusted for inflation added 2% and real disposable incomes grew 0.1%, separate polls showed. (Bloomberg, 03.20.17)
  • Russia’s total retail e-commerce sales reached 920 billion rubles ($15.7 billion) in 2016, up 20% from the previous year. (RBTH, 03.21.17)
  • Rosatom and Russian Venture Company have signed an agreement to cooperate in the promotion of advanced technologies and innovative developments at the Russian state nuclear corporation's subsidiaries. (World Nuclear News, 03.21.17)
  • A Russian parliamentarian has called for an investigation into corruption allegations against Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. Valery Rashkin, a lawmaker from the Communist Party, filed a formal request with Russia's Investigative Committee, asking its director, Alexander Bastrykin, to investigate allegations that Medvedev is the mastermind of a multi-million dollar corruption scheme. Rashkin announced the request in a tweet March 22. (The Moscow Times, 03.22.17)
  • The United Nation's yearly World Happiness Report measures “subjective well-being” in 155 countries along criteria such as GDP per capita and life expectancy, but also whether respondents feel fulfilled. Russia ranks 49th in the U.N.’s list. The United States ranks 14th. (The Moscow Times, 03.20.17)
  • Russia ranked 6th out of 30 European countries as the best place for international students, only giving way to Germany, the U.K., the Netherlands, France and Sweden, according to the newly published Study.EU Country Ranking 2017. (RBTH, 03.21.17)
  • Russian Academy of Sciences President Vladimir Fortov, a vocal critic of the Kremlin, has been relieved from his duties by the Russian government. (RFE/RL, 03.24.17)
  • Russia may drastically shrink its registry of “foreign agents”—non-governmental organizations (NGOs) that receive foreign funding and engage in political activities, Russia's Kommersant newspaper reports. (The Moscow Times, 03.24.17)
  • Police in Moscow have issued a warning to people intending to take part in an anti-Kremlin march organized by opposition leader Alexei Navalny. More than 4,000 people have said on Facebook that they will attend the march scheduled for March 26, which is protesting against high-level corruption. (AP, 03.23.17)
  • An arbitration court has revoked the license of the European University at St. Petersburg, one of Russia’s best private institutions of higher learning, upholding a decision by Rosobrnadzor, the Federal Service for Supervision in Education and Science, according to the university's website. (The Moscow Times, 03.20.17)

Defense and aerospace:

  • Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov has told a recent meeting of the Russian Academy of Military Sciences that he wants this institution to explore how best to deploy forces to distant theaters, Russia’s Voenno-Promyshlenny Kuryer weekly reported. As in his landmark 2013 speech, Gerasimov continues to claim hybrid warfare has U.S. origins and U.S./NATO employs such warfare for regime changes because hybrid warfare doesn’t fall under the definition of aggression in international law. He accused Western states of using a range of non-military means against states, including mobilization of “protest potential of the population” and use of social networks to do so. Just like in the 2013 speech, Gerasimov emphasized blurring the lines between war and peace, but he now also makes it clear that Russia would forcefully and decisively respond to any aggression, covert or overt. (Russia Matters, 03.21.17)
  • Testing of Russia’s newest intercontinental nuclear missile, the RS-28 Sarmat, has been delayed to later this year, an unidentified source in Russia’s defense industry was quoted by the TASS news agency as saying on March 23. (The Moscow Times, 03.23.17)
  • Russia’s Krylov State Research Center is lobbying the Kremlin hard to build a new aircraft carrier called the Project 23000E Storm. (The National Interest, 03.22.17)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

  • Vladimir Evdokimov, a top official of Russia’s space corporation, has been found dead in a prison where he was being held on charges of embezzlement. Investigators found stab wounds on Evdokimov’s body. (AP, 03.18.17)
  • Police have launched a second bribery investigation against former Kirov Governor Nikita Belykh, who is now in jail awaiting trial, according to the news agency RIA Novosti. (The Moscow Times, 03.22.17)
  • Nikolai Gorokhov, a lawyer representing the family of the deceased Russian whistle-blower Sergei Magnitsky, has been hospitalized in Moscow with serious injuries after falling several stories. (RFE/RL, 03.21.17)
  • A Russian opposition activist jailed for assaulting police during a protest in Moscow has been handed an additional two years in jail. Sergei Mokhnatkin was found guilty of "disrupting operations of a penitentiary" on March 20 and sentenced the same day, activist Tatyana Pashkevich wrote on her Facebook account. (RFE/RL, 03.20.17)

III. Foreign affairs, trade and investment

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

  • Contact between Russia and Japan has seen an unprecedented surge this month.  The deputy foreign ministers of both countries met in Tokyo on March 18. The foreign and defense ministers of both countries held a 2+2 format meeting there on March 20. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met with Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida, while Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu held talks with his Japanese counterpart, Tomomi Inada. The four ministers then held combined talks on international and bilateral issues. Lavrov and Kishida jointly urged North Korea to refrain from “provocative actions” and to abide by United Nations resolutions demanding an end to its nuclear and missile testing. Russia views missile defense systems that the U.S., Japan’s main ally, is deploying in northeast Asia as a threat to regional security, Lavrov said following the talks. Russian Economic Development Minister Maxim Oreshkin—acting as special envoy of the Russian President—will visit Japan near the end of the month. Finally, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe plans to visit Russia in April. (The Moscow Times, 03.20.17, Reuters, 03.20.17, AP, 03.20.17)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin says Russia’s arms sales abroad last year have topped $15 billion. Putin, speaking March 22 at a meeting with officials, said Russia last year also signed $9.5 billion in new arms-export contracts, which currently total $50 billion. (AP, 03.22.17)
  • Russia plans to host international talks on the conflict in Afghanistan on April 14, a high-ranking Afghan official said. Hanif Atmar, the Afghan president’s national security adviser, told RFE/RL’s Radio Free Afghanistan on March 18 that 12 countries, including the United States and the five Central Asian nations, have been invited to attend. The United States won’t attend the conference, a State Department official said March 23. The reasons: The U.S. wasn’t consulted before receiving the invitation and doesn’t know Russia’s objectives for the gathering. The official said that Washington wants to work with Moscow on regional efforts to end the 16-year war, and that Secretary of State Rex Tillerson would bring up the matter when he visits Russia in April. (AP, 03.23.17, RFE/RL, 03.19.17)
  • Russia dismissed a U.S. allegation that it may be supplying Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan as "a lie" on March 24, saying the charge was an attempt by Washington to try to cover up for the failure of its own policies there, the RIA news agency reported. The top U.S. general in Europe said on Marc 23 that he had seen Russian influence on Afghan Taliban insurgents growing and raised the possibility that Moscow was helping supply the militants, whose reach is expanding in southern Afghanistan. (Reuters, 03.24.17)
  • Renewed Russian arms sales to China are threatening U.S. air superiority, according to a U.S. Congressional research report that highlights the increasing military ties between Moscow and Beijing. In Chinese hands, Russian weapons such as the S-400 surface-to-air missile system, thought to be among the world’s best, and the fourth generation Su-35 fighter jet could have “significant consequences for the United States,” said the study by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, which is appointed by Congress. (Financial Times, 03.21.17)
  • China and Russia have blocked a U.N. Security Council statement expressing concern over the situation in Myanmar's Rakhine state, where Rohingya Muslims have reportedly been subject to attacks, diplomats say. (RFE/RL, 03.17.17)
  • France’s satirical newspaper, Le Canard Enchaine, reported that Republican candidate Francois Fillon earned 50,000 euros ($54,000) for setting up a meeting between a Lebanese billionaire, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Total SA Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanne in 2015. Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said on March 22 that the report "reminds one of the latest fake—what we call in English fake news." He did not issue a direct denial. Fillon aide Bruno Retailleau said in an interview on RTL radio March 22 that the candidate’s work was “absolutely legal” and had been reviewed by officials at the National Assembly. Fillon dropped half a percentage point, to 17%, in an Elabe survey of first-round voting intentions while independent front-runner Emmanuel Macron rose a half-point, to 26%. (Bloomberg, 03.21.17, RFE/RL, 03.23.17)
  • France's far-right presidential hopeful Marine Le Pen met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on March 24, just one month before the first round of France's presidential elections. “Russia does not want to influence the French election but reserves the right to meet with any French politician it wants,” Putin told Le Pen, in reference to allegations that Russia is attempting to influence the election's outcome. France's Front National leader first held talks with Russian Parliament Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin and the Russian parliament's International Relations Committee on March 24. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Le Pen and Trump are “realists, if you want, or anti-globalists,” and not representatives of fringe or “populist” views. “We do not believe in the EU's diplomacy of threats, sanctions and blackmail against Russia," Le Pen told the Duma committee. "Sanctions are stupid.” (The Moscow Times, 03.24.17, Bloomberg, 03.23.17) 
  • While affirming their commitment to the EU, Bulgaria’s two biggest parties say they’ll revive economic ties with Russia to benefit voters who feel let down by the bloc a decade after membership. The Socialists, neck and neck with the Gerb political party before the March 26 snap parliamentary ballot, vow to go further, by sinking sanctions against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government. A Russian-friendly Socialist won the presidency in 2016. (Bloomberg, 03.23.17)
  • In the run-up to presidential elections in Bulgaria last year, the country's opposition Socialist Party received a secret strategy document proposing a road map to victory at the ballot box, according to five current or former Bulgarian officials. The source of the roughly 30-page dossier, intercepted by Bulgaria's security service, was a think tank connected to the Kremlin, according to the officials. It was delivered by a former Russian spy on a U.S. sanctions list, three of them said. Leonid Reshetnikov, a former Russian spy, said he met with the leader of the Bulgarian Socialist Party, but denied delivering any document. (Wall Street Journal, 03.24.17)
  • Ankara's action against Russian wheat, maize and sunflower oil suppliers is hindering the restoration of ties between the two countries, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich told Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek by phone on March 23. (Reuters, 03.23.17)
  • A quarter of Serbs believe Russia is the country’s biggest donor—in fact, Moscow isn’t even in the top five. (Financial Times, 03.20.17)
  • Polish Defense Minister Antoni Macierewicz has accused European Council President Donald Tusk of committing diplomatic treason when he was Poland's prime minister—alleging that Tusk worked with Russian President Vladimir Putin to harm Polish interests after the 2010 plane crash near Smolensk, Russia, that killed Polish President Lech Kaczynski and 95 other people. (RFE/RL, 03.21.17)
  • Moscow says it hopes former Bosnian Serb military leader Ratko Mladic will be granted provisional release from detention in The Hague to undergo medical treatment in Russia. (RFE/RL, 03.22.17)
  • Bosnia and Russia have signed an agreement to settle Moscow’s $125 million Soviet-era debt to the Balkan country. (AP, 03.21.17)

Ukraine:

  • A former Russian parliamentarian who fled to Ukraine and harshly criticized the Russian authorities has been shot dead in Kiev. Denis Voronenkov, formerly a Communist Party lawmaker in the State Duma, was killed outside Kiev's Premier Palace hotel March 23. Voronenkov was leaving the hotel with his bodyguard when he was shot. The bodyguard returned fire and wounded the shooter. The alleged assassin was subsequently taken to a Kiev hospital where he was pronounced dead. The bodyguard sustained injuries in the shootout. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko called the murder of Voronenkov an act of state terrorism by Russia. Poroshenko said it is "a matter of honor" to successfully investigate the killing. Russia's Kremlin said on March 23 that allegations from Ukrainian authorities that Moscow was behind the murder of a fugitive Russian MP in Kiev were absurd. Before fleeing Russia, Voronenkov was the target of a fraud investigation. Voronenkov and his wife were concerned about their security, specifically citing their conflict with Russia. (The Moscow Times, 03.23.17, The Washington Post, 03.23.17, Reuters, 03.23.17, RFE/RL, 03.24.17)
  • Two Ukrainian marines were killed and seven wounded on March 20 in a fierce attack by Russian-backed forces near the frontline village of Vodyane, some 10 kilometers east of Mariupol in the Donetsk Oblast. According to an official statement published by Ukraine’s military press center, the army’s positions were attacked by an enemy sabotage unit. According to Gazeta.ru’s sources among Donbas separatists, however, it was two platoons of Ukrainian marines that tried to advance at Vodyane, losing 15 servicemen in action. (Kyiv Post, 03.20.17, Russia Matters, 03.20.17)
  • Around 20,000 people were evacuated March 23 in Ukraine’s Kharkov region near the border with Russia after a massive fire at a military arsenal.  Ukrainian officials say a woman's body has been found under debris at the site. Ukraine suspects the Russian military or its separatist rebel proxies were responsible, Ukrainian Defense Minister Stepan Poltorak said. Ukraine did not provide evidence of Russian or rebel involvement. The Russian military did not immediately respond to a request for comment. (AP, 03.23.17, Reuters, 03.23.17, RFE/RL, 03.24.17)
  • Russia has been building up its armed forces along the Ukrainian border, and is in the process of establishing four new divisions. In addition, the headquarters of the Russian 20th Army has been moved closer to Ukraine. A new 8th Army headquarters is being established in the Rostov region, and three motorized rifle brigades that were previously located deep inside Russian territory are being shifted westward. (Eurasianet, 03.20.17)
  • Ukraine is developing a new indigenous lightweight fighter aircraft according to a new report. However, the project has existed in some form for more than ten years. (The National Interest, 03.21.17)
  • Russia marked a low-key third anniversary of the seizure of Crimea from Ukraine, as Kiev blasted the annexation of the strategic Black Sea peninsula as a “crime.” State-run television showed footage of sparsely attended concerts and parades in cities across the vast country, and there was much less fanfare over the event than in previous years. (AFP, 03.18.17)
    • Russia has launched unprecedented land, air and sea drills in annexed Crimea in a coordinated training exercise involving thousands of troops. The action is billed as significant by the military as it is said to be the first time in the history of the Russian army that three large airborne units have been “simultaneously alerted.” (Independent, 03.20.17)
    • The European Union on March 17 condemned Russia’s seizure of Ukraine’s Crimea territory, calling Moscow’s annexation of the Black Sea peninsula a “direct challenge to international security.” (RFE/RL, 03.17.17)
  • Russia's biggest bank, Sberbank, is looking "very actively" at options for a quick exit from Ukraine, the bank's Chief Executive German Gref said on March 21. Gref also told reporters that Sberbank's loan-loss provisions in Ukraine made up around 70% of its potential losses. Russia's central bank is preparing to give state banks a three-year extension to set aside provisions needed to cover for potential losses after a new round of sanctions by Ukraine, a source close to the central bank told Reuters on March 23. (Reuters, 03.21.17, Reuters, 03.23.17) 
  • Russia is not giving special treatment to passport holders of two Ukrainian breakaway republics, despite the Kremlin’s partial recognition of the regions, the news website RBC reported. Holders of the passports are allowed to stay in Russia for 90 days visa-free. They are then are obligated to leave the country or obtain a residence permit like any other Ukrainian citizen in Russia. (The Moscow Times, 03.20.17)
  • The National Bank of Ukraine says it has slashed its estimate for economic growth in 2017 to 1.9% from the 2.8% predicted in January due to the blockade. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko declared the transport blockade of rebel-held areas last week. An informal blockade by some nationalist groups had earlier led to pro-Russian separatists seizing control of dozens of major businesses in the east. (AP, 03.21.17)
  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has postponed a decision to disburse more aid to Ukraine in order to assess the impact of an economic blockade Kiev imposed on separatist-held territory, the IMF and Ukrainian authorities said on March 19. (Reuters, 03.19.17)
  • Ukraine's richest man Rinat Akhmetov doubled his wealth in 2016 to $4.6 billion, according to Forbes, but may take a hit because Kremlin-backed separatists have seized his businesses in the eastern Donbas. (Kyiv Post, 03.21.17)
  • Ukrainian lawmaker Serhiy Leshchenko on March 21 released new financial documents allegedly showing that former campaign chairman to U.S. President Donald Trump, Paul Manafort, laundered payments from the party of Viktor Yanukovych using offshore accounts in Belize and Kyrgyzstan. Leshchenko released a copy of an invoice on letterhead from Manafort’s Alexandria, Va.-based consulting company from Oct. 14, 2009 to a Belize-based company for $750,000 for the sale of 501 computers. Manafort, who worked for Yanukovych’s Party of Regions for nearly a decade, resigned from Trump’s campaign in August after his name surfaced in connection with secret payments totaling $12.7 million by Yanukovych’s party. Manafort has denied receiving those payments, listed in the party’s so-called “black ledger.” Manafort has also previously accused Leshchenko of blackmailing him by threatening to release harmful information about his financial relationship with Yanukovych. Leshchenko has denied doing so. (The Washington Post, 03.21.17)
    • U.S. Treasury Department agents have recently obtained information about offshore financial transactions involving U.S. President Donald Trump’s former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, as part of a federal anti-corruption probe into his work in Eastern Europe. Federal prosecutors became interested in Manafort’s activities years ago as part of a broad investigation to recover stolen Ukrainian assets after the ouster of pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych there in early 2014. (AP, 03.23.17)
  • A postgraduate student at Moscow State University says he was beaten and interrogated by the Federal Security Service after he exposed a makeshift Ukrainian flag on the third anniversary of Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea. (RFE/RL, 03.21.17)
  • The Eurovision song contest, nominally an apolitical festival of pop music confections and cheerfully tacky costumes, erupted into a political dispute March 22 after Ukraine banned Russia’s contestant, Yulia Samoylova, from entering the country. (AP, 03.22.17)

Russia’s other post-Soviet neighbors:

  • Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko threatened a harsh crackdown on opponents of his rule amid mass arrests of protesters planning what they say may be the largest demonstration in years in the former Soviet republic. Nearly 300 people have already been detained, jailed or fined for involvement in anti-government protests that have swept across Belarus since last month over a so-called “parasite tax” on the jobless, according to Viasna, a Minsk-based rights group. Lukashenko has earlier said about 20 armed militants who were planning "an armed provocation" in Belarus had been apprehended. He also accused Western intelligence agencies of backing a "fifth column" in the country that is causing unrest and threatening stability. (Bloomberg, 03.23.17, RFE/RL, 03.21.17, RFE/RL, 03.21.17)
  • Moldova’s prime minister is asking the president to approve the suspension of the agriculture minister, Eduard Grama, who has been detained as a suspect in a scheme to illegally expropriate state-owned vineyards and buildings. (AP, 03.17.17)
  • Moldovan President Igor Dodon dismissed Agriculture and Food Industry Minister Eduard Grama on March 20, citing suspected corruption. (RFE/RL, 03.21.17)
  • Moldova has received no formal response from Russia to complaints that members of Russia's security apparatus were sabotaging its investigation into a money-laundering operation, Moldovan parliament Speaker Andrian Candu said on March 23. (RFE/RL, 03.24.17)
  • The Dutch prosecutor's office said it is investigating ING Groep over the global financial firm’s possible role in money laundering and corruption in Uzbekistan. (RFE/RL, 03.22.17)
  • Samvel Babayan, Nagorno-Karabakh’s former top military commander close to an Armenian opposition ORO alliance, and two other people were arrested on March 22 on suspicion of smuggling Russian-made Igla systems to Armenia. (RFE/RL, 03.22.17)

IV. Quoteworthy

  • U.S. President Donald Trump was asked by Fox News to give short descriptions of several political and business leaders. When asked about Russian President Vladimir Putin, he replied: "I don’t know him, but certainly he is a tough cookie." (TASS, 03.19.17)
  • “There is a big gray cloud that you’ve now put over people” in the Trump administration, Rep. Devin Nunes told FBI Director James Comey at the end of the public hearing on Russia’s alleged interference in the U.S. elections. (Bloomberg, 03.20.17)
  • FBI Director James Comey said on reasons why the Russian government allegedly interfered in the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign: “I mean, to put it in a homely metaphor, I hate the New England Patriots and no matter who they play, I'd like them to lose. And so I'm at the same time rooting against the Patriots and hoping their opponent beats them. Because only two teams on the field but what the intelligence community concluded was early on, the hatred for Mrs. Clinton was—was all the way along.” (The Washington Post, 03.20.17)
  • Washington Post journalist Monica Hesse wrote: “Donald H. Rumsfeld once categorized three forms of information: known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns. At Monday morning's House Intelligence Committee hearing on Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election, those categories were enlarged to include: Things we think we know but have no proof of, which has never stopped the American public before. Things we know that apparently are a big no-no for us to know. Things we would know if FBI Director James B. Comey would tell us, but he won't, except for confirming that the Russian investigation exists, which we already knew.” (The Washington Post, 03.21.17)
  • Crispin Blunt, the chairman of The British House of Commons Foreign Affairs Select Committee, said: “Russia matters and it is going to go on mattering. But we’re in a situation where we can’t read them properly because all the expertise we had from the Soviet period has disappeared.” (The Telegraph, 03.04.17)
  • Edward Fishman, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council: “The irony of the present moment is that the EU—so often dismissed as ‘soft’ on Russia—has emerged as the West's bulwark.” (Wall Street Journal, 03.20.17)