5 Things to Know

1. Asked at the G-7 in Évian whether Ukraine remains a priority, Donald Trump said the war was “no longer high” on his list. Trump bluntly told reporters that the United States has “nothing to do” with the Ukraine war beyond selling weapons, saying it is “thousands of miles away” and not a priority compared to Iran. Though he called his meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy “very good” and repeated that Russia “should make a deal,” Trump signaled no special focus on Ukraine, underscoring European fears that Washington’s security commitment has sharply diminished. Emmanuel Macron brokered two meetings between Trump and Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the summit. Trump said he had a "very good meeting" with Zelenskyy, while also calling the Ukraine war “sort of the same thing” with both sides “losing soldiers,” estimating “25,000 young people die every month.”¹ Thus, while the headlines tout a G-7 agreement to tighten sanctions on Russia, when asked about Ukraine, Trump speaking more candidly said, “Look, we have nothing to do with it.” He went on: “It has no impact on us other than we sell weapons.” And again, “We are thousands of miles away.” Such comments are much more informative about the Trump administration’s position on Ukraine and what it will and won’t do in the period ahead. That doesn’t mean that it won’t try to encourage the parties to settle on the terms that are now on the table, since he would like to rack up another peace deal. But it does tell you where his view of his interests lies.*
2. Data from Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group indicates that in the past four weeks (May 19–June 16, 2026), Russian forces have gained a net 10 square miles (less than half the size of Manhattan Island), according to the latest issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In comparison, from April 22–May 19, 2026,² Russia gained a net of 20 square miles. In the past week (June 9–16, 2026), Russian armed forces made a net gain of 7 square miles of Ukraine’s territory. In addition, Russian forces were reported by DeepState to have advanced in or near eight distinct settlements in the period of June 9–16, 2026. DeepState reported no advances by the Ukrainian forces in that period. In contrast, RM’s analysis of ISW data for the past four weeks (May 19–June 16, 2026) indicates that Russia lost a net 57 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, while during the past week (June 9–16, 2026), Russia gained 5 square miles of Ukrainian territory. 
3. Russia’s Defense Ministry said its air defenses intercepted 992 Ukrainian drones, four long-range cruise missiles and 10 guided aerial bombs over the 24 hours to June 18—the largest single-day claim of the war—with Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin saying at least 180–194 drones were shot down on approaches to the capital. Nearly 200 drones targeted Moscow and its region alone, where multiple UAVs, for the second time in two days, struck Gazpromneft’s oil refinery in Moscow’s Kapotnya, which normally processes over 12 million tons of oil a year and supplies about one third to 40% of the city’s fuel and over half of its diesel and airport fuel. Russian officials reported around 16–17 injured in the Moscow area, including a 10-year-old girl in Ramenskoye and a three-year-old child at the Mega Belaya Dacha mall, while separate strikes in the Rostov region killed one and wounded two. All four Moscow airports temporarily closed. Zelenskyy called the strike the second on the plant in a week and a “fully justified response,” warning, that “if Ukraine burns, your Moscow will burn as well.”³
4. Russia is exploiting Ukraine’s biggest weakness with persistent ballistic missile attacks, NYT reports, warning that “the Ukrainian military does not have enough Patriot missile interceptors to keep up with the barrages.” According to data compiled by NYT, Russia has launched “410 ballistic missiles” so far this year and is on pace to launch “roughly 900 for the year” if current trends continue. While Ukraine has received over 1,600 Patriot missile interceptors over the course of the war, as of last summer, their stockpile had fallen to as low as 16 interceptors. Furthermore, Lockheed Martin has said its total production of Patriot interceptors in 2026 will be just 620. With U.S. forces in the Middle East, U.S. forces in PACOM (from which Patriot interceptors were borrowed for the Iran war), Israel, and many others demanding the new Patriot interceptors, Ukraine will certainly not be at the front of the line. While firms are announcing plans to both expand production of Patriot interceptors and develop low-cost alternatives, most of these are plans and it is unlikely that any will be delivered in the next year. The war with Iran has placed further strain on the U.S. stockpile. CSIS estimates that the U.S. expended between 1,030 and 1,400 Patriot interceptors over the course of the conflict. With an estimated prewar inventory of 2,330 interceptors, the shortfall is especially dire. When it comes to replenishing Ukraine’s stockpiles of Patriot interceptors, Kyiv will probably have to wait until the U.S. restores its own stock, and then restores the stocks of Israel and other key U.S. allies in the region, in what would take years. Additionally, while NYT claims that Russia has fired 410 ballistic missiles in 2026, based on RM’s analysis of CSIS data, between January 2026 and May 2026, Russia only launched 111 ballistic missiles. 
5. Ukraine has turned to AI-assisted interceptors to combat Russian drones, according to NYT. While in the first years of the war Ukraine relied on machine guns, electronic warfare and missiles to bring down Russian drones, “last August, the Ukrainian military began to widely deploy interceptor drones piloted by humans, without AI.” In recent months, Ukrainian company Skyfall reported that they developed interceptors that “have made dozens of AI-assisted strikes on Shahed-type drones.” This is just one of what Ukrainians claim are “a range of AI-powered weapons that have been deployed in recent months.” Further advances in AI may “eventually allow one pilot to oversee several missions, instead of just one at a time,” and help negate Russia’s manpower advantage as a result. Zelenskyy has warned that “it’s only a matter of time… before drones are fighting drones, attacking critical infrastructure and targeting people all by themselves.” While Ukrainian officials have stressed that drones still need human confirmation before engaging a target, the author argues that “at this point it is clearly an ethical, rather than a technological, limitation.” The readers of this article would have benefited from estimates of how many AI-assisted drones Ukraine has produced and what difference they make in the larger picture, in the view of the author of the article or experts that she could have interviewed on this issue.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• No significant developments.

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• North Korea denounced on June 13 a joint statement by South Korea and the European Union that condemned Pyongyang's military ties with Russia throughout the war in Ukraine. The statement, adopted on June 17 during South Korean President Lee Jae Myung's visit to Brussels, decried the “illegal military cooperation” between Pyongyang and Moscow. “We condemn support by third parties, in particular the DPRK, which enables Russia to sustain its war of aggression against Ukraine,” the statement said. (MT/AFP, 06.13.26)

Iran and its nuclear program:⁴

Monday, June 15, 2026

• U.S. President Donald Trump publicly thanked China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin for helping secure an initial ceasefire deal with Iran, praising Xi as a “total gentleman” for not sending tankers through the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, even as U.S. officials sanction Chinese-linked firms accused of routing MANPADS and other weapons to Tehran and say Moscow has provided Iran with targeting data for attacks on American bases. (New York Times, 06.15.26)
• A Wall Street Journal piece says U.S. and allied forces have spent billions firing million‑dollar‑plus interceptors at cheap Iranian and Russian drones, prompting a surge of U.S. and European startups developing short‑range “micro‑missiles” that can be produced in hours and cost from around $10,000 to the low tens of thousands by using off‑the‑shelf electronics and automated manufacturing. (Wall Street Journal, 06.15.26)

Wednesday, June 17, 2026

• Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi briefed his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov by phone on the framework agreement aimed at ending the war with the United States, Russia’s Foreign Ministry said June 17. Lavrov expressed support for the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. (MT/AFP, 06.17.26)

Thursday, June 18, 2026

• A new U.S.–Iran memorandum of understanding signed June 17 by Trump and Masud Pezeshkian takes immediate effect: Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz and provide 60 days of free‑of‑charge safe passage while a longer maritime regime is negotiated; the U.S. will end its naval blockade within 30 days; Washington will waive oil sanctions and ultimately facilitate a $300 billion regional reconstruction fund, contingent on a follow‑on nuclear deal and Iran down‑blending its enriched uranium stockpile under IAEA supervision. (RFE/RL, 06.18.26)
  • Axios notes that at an hour‑long press conference, Trump defended his Iran deal — intended to end a 3½‑month war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and stabilize energy markets — while warning he could “bomb Iran again” if nuclear talks fail. Critics argue the agreement largely restores the pre‑war status quo at the cost of significant U.S. military expenditures and temporary sanctions relief, questioning whether the benefits justify the war’s human and economic costs. (Axios, 06.18.26)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Acting Belgorod governor Alexander Shuvaev said that since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, 541 people have been killed and 3,928 wounded in the region, noting that about 40 percent of all deaths occurred in the last year, up sharply from the 320 dead and 2,500 injured reported by his predecessor in May 2025. (Istories, 06.11.26)

Saturday, June 13, 2026

• The U.N. Human Rights Monitoring Mission reported that May 2026 saw at least 274 civilians killed and 1,763 injured in Ukraine—the highest monthly toll since April 2022—largely due to Russia’s intensified long‑range strikes with missiles and glide bombs on cities far from the front, plus record casualties from short‑range drone attacks near frontline areas, with three major missile barrages against cities such as Kyiv driving the spike. (ISW, 06.13.26) 
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a law removing Russian (and Moldovan) from Ukraine’s list of languages protected under the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages, with Rada Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk calling it a step toward safeguarding Ukrainian and meeting EU obligations, since Russian is not viewed as a minority or indigenous language. (Meduza, 06.13.26)

Thursday, June 18, 2026

• Russia and Ukraine exchanged the bodies of more than 550 soldiers killed fighting in the war, a senior Russian lawmaker said June 18. Shamsail Saraliyev, a State Duma lawmaker from the ruling United Russia party and member of a parliamentary group dedicated to the conflict, said Ukraine received 522 bodies of its soldiers while 33 were returned to Russia. Ukraine later confirmed the exchange. (MT/AFP, 06.18.26)

For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• Data from Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group indicates that in the past four weeks (May 19–June 16, 2026), Russian forces have gained a net 10 square miles (less than half the size of Manhattan Island)., according to the latest issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In comparison, from April 22–May 19, 2026, Russia gained a net of 20 square miles.⁵ In the past week (June 9–16, 2026), Russian armed forces made a net gain of 7 square miles of Ukraine’s territory. In addition, Russian forces were reported by DeepState to have advanced in or near eight distinct settlements in the period of June 9–16, 2026. DeepState reported no advances by the Ukrainian forces in that period. In contrast, RM’s analysis of ISW data for the past four weeks (May 19–June 16, 2026) indicates that Russia lost a net 57 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, while during the past week (June 9–16, 2026), Russia gained 5 square miles of Ukrainian territory. (RM, 06.17.26)

Friday, June 12, 2026

• On June 12, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Zakitne. (RM, 06.18.26)
• On Russia Day, Putin told troops Russia is advancing “every day, gradually” in Ukraine while admitting progress is slower than desired and that Ukrainian drone strikes aim to damage the economy and morale; he highlighted Russian advances in FPV drones, AI integration, EW, and a Starlink‑like satellite system, downplaying the impact of Ukraine’s growing long‑ and mid‑range strike campaign that has slowed Russian offensives and caused logistics problems. (ISW, 06.12.26)
• ISW reports Russian forces have made costly, incremental gains in the Donetsk region city of Kostyantynivka after 10 months of fighting, consolidating positions in southern and northwestern parts of the city and between Berestok and Illinivka, but still advancing only 8–10 km since August 2025; Moscow missed its own May 2026 deadline to capture the city and is amplifying curated combat footage as part of a cognitive campaign to exaggerate how much of Kostyantynivka it controls. (ISW, 06.12.26) 
• Russia is building or expanding at least five long‑range drone launch sites in Bryansk, Oryol, and Smolensk regions, 45–200 km from Belarus, and already using four to strike Ukraine; RFE/RL and ISW say their positioning allows drones to fly via Belarusian airspace with Belarus‑based relay channels, increasing payloads and potentially supporting future operations not only against Ukraine but also along NATO’s eastern flank. (ISW, 06.12.26) 

Saturday, June 13, 2026

• On June 13, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Pokrovsk. (RM,06.18.26)
• Russia is exploiting Ukraine’s biggest weakness with persistent ballistic missile attacks the NYT reports, warning that “The Ukrainian military does not have enough Patriot missile interceptors to keep up with the barrages.” According to data compiled by the NYT, Russia has launched “410 ballistic missiles” so far this year and is on pace to launch “roughly 900 for the year” if current trends continue. While Ukraine has received over 1,600 Patriot missile interceptors over the course of the war, as of last summer, their stockpile had fallen to as low as 16 interceptors. Furthermore, Lockheed Martin said it would deliver only 620 interceptors in 2026. While firms race to both expand production of Patriot interceptors and develop low-cost alternatives, whether production limits can be overcome and alternatives perform at the level of the PAC-3 remain to be seen. (NYT, 06.13.26) See highlights section for comments on this news item.
  • Russia’s increasingly complex strike packages—combining upgraded Kh‑101s, Iskander‑M/K and Shahed/Geran drones—underscore Ukraine’s dependence on U.S. Patriot systems and interceptors; Kyiv is pushing for licenses to produce Patriots domestically, has just tested an indigenous anti‑missile interceptor, and is working with European partners on a joint anti‑ballistic system, but these efforts need major Western investment to keep pace. (ISW, 06.13.26)
• Ukrainian long‑range drone and missile strikes hit Russian energy infrastructure again, with a drone attack on Krasnodar region killing one person and injuring three and reportedly damaging the Volna Black Sea oil-export terminal, while Ukraine’s General Staff said it also struck an oil preparation and pumping station in Volgograd and targets in occupied Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia. (Washington Post/AP, 06.13.26)
• A Ukrainian defense researcher told ISW that as of spring 2026 Russia is producing roughly 40–50 Kh‑101 cruise missiles, 60–70 Iskander‑M ballistic missiles and about 10 Iskander‑K cruise missiles per month—numbers that now meet or exceed the ~50 PAC‑3 Patriot interceptors the U.S. makes monthly—while adding North Korean tech, heavier warheads, decoys and an extended‑range “Iskander‑1000” variant plus air‑launched drones to complicate interception. (ISW, 06.13.26)

Sunday, June 14, 2026

• On June 14, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Sofiivka. (RM, 06.18.26)
• Ukrainian forces struck Russia, with Zelenskyy saying drones targeted the Azot fertilizer and chemical plant in Tula — which he called critical to Russia’s explosives capabilities — and an “important” oil storage facility in Yaroslavl region, while separate UAV attacks killed one person and wounded nine when an apartment building was hit in Oryol city and ignited fuel tank fires in Yaroslavl. On the same day, British forces boarded and detained the sanctioned tanker Smyrtos in the English Channel in the U.K.’s first seizure of a suspected Russian “shadow fleet” oil ship. (Bloomberg, 06.14.26, Washington Post/AP, 06.14.26)

Monday, June 15, 2026

• On June 15, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Sukhetske. (RM, 06.18.26) 
• Russia’s June 15 overnight barrage on Ukraine used about 70–73 missiles and over 600 long‑range drones; Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat said the strike involved “about 600 drones and 70 missiles (including Zircons and Iskanders),” with defenses downing 100% of Kh‑101 and Iskander‑K cruise missiles, 15 of 34 ballistic missiles, 5 Zircons and 582 of 611 drones, but at least 11 people were killed and dozens injured nationwide. Almost every district of Kyiv was hit, killing at least 4–5 and injuring 30–34, leaving about 140,000 households without power and setting the UNESCO‑listed Pechersk Lavra’s 11th‑century Dormition Cathedral ablaze, while a “double tap” strike on Kharkiv killed five rescuers; Valerii Zaluzhnyi condemned the attack as “absolute evil.” (Financial Times, 06.15.26; Meduza, 06.15.26; Washington Post, 06.15.26; Wall Street Journal, 06.15.26; RBC.ua, 06.15.26; NV.ua/European Pravda, 06.15.26) 
• Overnight Ukrainian drone attacks hit residential areas in Russia’s Tula region, killing three people and injuring three (including a one‑year‑old), while Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed air defenses intercepted 123 Ukrainian drones across 12 regions, Crimea, and the Azov and Black Seas. Ukraine also sent roughly 60 drones toward Moscow, striking Gazpromneft’s 11‑million‑ton‑per‑year Kapotnya/Moscow Oil Refinery about 10 miles from the Kremlin—supplying around 40% of the capital’s fuel and 70% of the region’s gasoline and jet fuel—where authorities said a fire was extinguished and operations continued. (Meduza, 06.15.26; The Moscow Times / AFP, 06.15.26; New York Times, 06.16.26; New York Times, 06.15.26; iStories, 06.16.26)
• Ukraine’s mid‑range drone campaign has slashed traffic on Russia’s R‑280 “Novorossiya” land corridor to Crimea by over 40 percent to around 6,500 vehicles a day and helped trigger severe fuel shortages on the occupied peninsula, where drivers must use QR codes to buy just 20 liters of gasoline and queue for hours at stations. (Financial Times, 06.15.26)

Tuesday, June 16, 2026

• On June 16, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Illinivka and Berestok. (RM, 06.18.26)
• In the Kostyantynivka–Druzhkivka area, ISW notes Russian forces are conducting infiltration missions while waging an AI‑driven propaganda campaign. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced in central and western Kostyantynivka. Also Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Dobropillya tactical area on June 15 and 16 but did not make confirmed advances. (ISW, 06.16.26)
• Overnight Ukrainian drone attacks set fire to a major oil refinery in Moscow and an oil depot that supplies gas stations across the southern Krasnodar region. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said at least one drone struck a Gazprom Neft-operated oil refinery located around 15 kilometers (9.3 miles) southeast of central Moscow in Kapotnya. According to him, Ukraine launched 60 drones at the Russian capital overnight. Sobyanin said no one was harmed in the drone strike. It was not immediately clear whether the incident disrupted operations at the oil refinery, which supplies around a third of Moscow’s gasoline and fuel. (MT/AFP, 06.16.26)
• According to Ukraine’s General Staff, long‑range attacks on 16 Russian refineries have cut national refining capacity by about 30%, pushing oil output down to roughly 9 million barrels per day and gasoline production to a 16‑year low. Moscow has quietly extended rules allowing substandard fuel onto the domestic market to ease shortages, but ISW assesses that continued Ukrainian strikes will likely deepen and spread fuel scarcities across Russia and occupied Ukraine through the summer. (ISW, 06.16.26)
• An analysis in The Economist says Russia is exploiting a global shortage of Patriot‑class interceptors to wage an increasingly “terrifying” air war: in its latest major strike it launched 611 drones and 70 missiles at Ukraine, hitting eight residential blocks in Kyiv and killing at least five there and five rescuers in Kharkiv, while May 2026 was already the deadliest month for Ukrainian civilians since 2022. Kyiv lacks enough anti‑ballistic interceptors, with Ukrainian defenses downing “more than 90%” of drones and cruise missiles on an average night but only about one third of ballistic missiles, as Russia is expected this year to produce roughly 700 Iskander ground‑launched ballistic missiles, 60 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles and 30 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles, while Ukraine rushes to field its own Sapsan/Hrim‑2 and FP‑7 ballistic missiles. (The Economist, 06.15.26)
• A Ukrainian Su‑24M frontline bomber from the 7th Tactical Aviation Brigade crashed during a combat mission in Khmelnytsky region on June 16, killing both the pilot and navigator; the cause is under investigation, and no civilian casualties were reported. (Meduza, 06.16.26)
• At the G7, Zelenskyy warned that if fighting continues into winter, Russia will face a “harsh winter,” too, saying Ukraine does not want a repeat of 2025–26, when mass Russian strikes left many towns without electricity, water or heat and large parts of Kyiv without central heating during severe frosts. (Meduza, 06.16.26)
• Sverdlovsk region governor Denis Pasler ordered creation of an online, named registry of soldiers from the oblast killed in Ukraine and earlier conflicts; local commissions will submit annual data, which can be used for monuments and memorials. Independent counts by Mediazona and BBC Russia have already confirmed 6,990 war dead from Sverdlovsk and an estimated 352,000 Russian military fatalities nationwide. (Meduza, 06.16.26) 

Wednesday, June 17, 2026

• On June 17, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Rodynske and near Huliaipilske. (RM, 06.18.26)
• Russia’s Defense Ministry said air defenses intercepted 157 Ukrainian drones overnight across 15 regions and occupied Crimea, including 19 UAVs reportedly flying toward Moscow. Governors in Tula and Kaluga regions also claimed successful defenses. The ministry provided no damage details, while Ukrainian officials have not commented, in keeping with Kyiv’s usual policy of ambiguity over deep‑strike drone operations. (Istories, 06.17.26)
• Belarus’s Foreign Ministry condemned reports that a Ukrainian drone struck a bus carrying a Belarusian youth football team in Russia’s Bryansk region on June 17 as an “act of terrorism,” saying six children and two adults were wounded and one coach’s wife killed, opening a terrorism case and demanding explanations from Kyiv while urging Belarusians to avoid routes near the war zone. Russian officials likewise claim a Ukrainian UAV hit the bus and injured several children, but Ukraine’s General Staff flatly denies using drones in Bryansk during that period and calls the allegation “false” and manipulative; RFE/RL notes it cannot independently verify events on Russian territory and that Moscow has stepped up information operations. (RFE/RL, 06.17.26; Istories, 06.17.26)
• Ukraine’s “logistics lockdown” on Crimea has sharply cut traffic along the R‑280 “Novorossiya” land corridor, with one Ukrainian commander saying flows on the 185‑mile highway have fallen by about two‑thirds. (New York Times, 06.17.26)
• Ukraine’s Defense Forces say they struck the sanctioned shadow‑fleet tanker FINA A in the Black Sea, along with two key road bridges used for Russian logistics: crossings near Stavky over the North Crimean Canal and near Voinka in Kherson region. Additional strikes hit Russian command posts and drone‑control centers across occupied Ukraine and Russia’s Kursk region, aiming to “systematically reduce” Russia’s ability to wage war. (RBC.ua, 06.17.26)
• Ukraine’s 2026 strike campaign has forced fuel rationing in 53 Russian regions plus all five occupied Ukrainian regions, with most limiting private motorists to about 50 liters per fill‑up. The IEA estimates Russian crude output in May fell to 8.7 million barrels/day (about 5% below May 2025 and 10% under target), while exports rose to 5.2 million barrels/day as Moscow cuts refining to prioritize domestic fuel and maximize crude sales, with roughly 120 million barrels now sitting on tankers at sea. (ISW, 06.17.26)
• Zelenskyy said Ukraine plans to produce about 10 million drones this year and could scale to 20 million, as sanctions and a €90 billion EU package strengthen Kyiv’s position. (RBC.ua, 06.17.26)
• Rosaviatsia has banned flights by light and ultralight aircraft and civilian drones up to 5.2 km over Moscow, most of Moscow region and parts of six surrounding regions from June 20 “until further notice,” a move that affects dozens of airfields and about 1,000 private pilots but not scheduled or charter airliners. (Meduza, 06.17.26)

Thursday, June 18, 2026

• On June 18, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Riznykivka. (RM, 06.18.26)
• Russia’s Defense Ministry said its air defenses intercepted 992 Ukrainian drones, four long‑range cruise missiles and 10 guided aerial bombs over the 24 hours to June 18 — the largest single‑day claim of the war — with Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin saying at least 180–194 drones were shot down on approaches to the capital. Nearly 200 drones targeted Moscow and its region alone, where multiple UAVs, for the second time in two days,  struck Gazpromneft’s oil refinery in Moscow’s Kapotnya, normally processing over 12 million tons of oil a year and supplying about one third to 40% of the city’s fuel and over half of its diesel and airport fuel. Russian officials reported around 16–17 injured in the Moscow area, including a 10‑year‑old girl in Ramenskoye and a three‑year‑old child at the Mega Belaya Dacha mall, while separate strikes in Rostov region killed one and wounded two. All four Moscow airports temporarily closed Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the strike the second on the plant in a week and a “fully justified response,” warning, “If Ukraine burns, your Moscow will burn as well.” (New York Times, 06.18.26; Financial Times, 06.18.26; Istories, 06.18.26; Istories, 06.18.26; The Moscow Times, 06.18.26; RFE/RL, 06.18.26; RBC.ua, 06.18.26; RBC.ua, 06.18.26; Meduza, 06.18.26; Meduza, 06.18.26; Bloomberg, 06.18.26)
• Ukraine’s Air Force reports Russia launched 7 Iskander‑M/S‑400 ballistic missiles and 239 attack drones (Shahed, “Gerbera,” “Italmas,” and “Parodiya” decoys) overnight on June 18 from Kursk, Orel, Primorsko‑Akhtarsk, occupied Crimea and Donetsk. Air defenses shot down or suppressed 216 targets: 4 ballistic missiles and 212 drones over northern, southern and eastern regions. Two ballistic missiles and 26 drones hit nine locations, with debris falling in seven more; one missile’s outcome is still being clarified as alerts continue. (RBC.ua, 06.18.26)
• Finnish President Alexander Stubb said active combat in Ukraine will likely continue “at least another three to four months,” rejecting warnings from some Western officials that Russia might attack a NATO state afterward. He argued Moscow’s goal is to destabilize Europe via hybrid tactics rather than launch a direct NATO assault, and predicted that even if Russia loses, it will remain an isolated, non‑democratic state with a lagging economy, making a “stable and safe Russia” still critical for Finland. (RBC.ua, 06.18.26)

Military aid to Ukraine:

Sunday, June 14, 2026

• Ahead of a G7 session with Zelenskyy in Évian, Politico says Kyiv is trying to lock in Trump’s support for a long‑delayed U.S.–Ukraine “drone deal” and Patriot co‑production while peace talks remain stalled; Ukraine now uses 60–70 Patriot interceptors per month (more than Raytheon currently makes) and is asking Washington to authorize domestic production and Berlin to lend dozens of interceptors from German stocks. (Politico, 06.14.26)

Wednesday, June 17, 2026

• Zelenskyy said June 17 his country has won key pledges of further support from world leaders in defending itself from Russia's full-scale invasion. The G7 statement promised Ukraine more air defense capabilities, without specifying what type of weapons. (AP, 06.17.26)
• Polish deputy defense minister Paweł Zalewski said the long‑discussed transfer of Polish MiG‑29s is delayed mainly because Kyiv wants aircraft upgraded for modern combat and Warsaw is unwilling to cover the costs, and because a reciprocal deal on Ukrainian drone technologies is still being negotiated. (Ukrainska Pravda, 06.17.26)

Thursday, June 18, 2026

• In Brussels, Zelenskyy met Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever and said they “in detail” discussed defense aid, including the delivery schedule for F‑16s, with the “first deliveries” due later this year. Defense Minister Theo Francken separately announced Belgium will transfer seven F‑16s in 2026, four of them for spare parts. Belgium is also preparing a new “significant” assistance package and contribution to the PURL program, as other donors like Norway ready their own pledged F‑16s for Ukraine. (Ukrainska Pravda, 06.18.26)
• See section on Ukraine-related negotiations for more news.

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

Tuesday, June 16, 2026

• The EU’s latest sanctions list adds 34 individuals and 47 entities tied to Russia’s military‑industrial complex, “shadow fleet,” hybrid operations, the annexation of Crimea and Sevastopol, and the 2024 death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, including Prosecutor General Alexander Gutsan, Metropolitan Tikhon (Shevkunov, often described as “Putin’s confessor”), ex‑children’s ombudsman Pavel Astakhov, and the holding company behind facial‑recognition firm NtechLab. (Meduza, 06.16.26; The Moscow Times / AFP, 06.15.26)
• The U.K. announced new sanctions on what it said was a Russian intelligence network that has been acquiring Western technology for its military to use in Ukraine, as well as a further clampdown on its shadow fleet and illicit finance programs. Britain’s Foreign Office said it was exposing a front company called LLC Neptune Co Ltd, which it said was controlled by Russia’s military intelligence agency, the GRU, and was involved in covertly procuring Western technology for the country’s military. Three companies and 10 GRU officers were targeted in the sanctions announced June 16. Other measures targeted suppliers of critical military equipment to Russia in China, Thailand and Türkiye, as well as 20 oil tankers and an entity in Nigeria supporting the so-called A7 sanctions evasions scheme, the Foreign Office said. (Bloomberg, 06.15.26) 

Wednesday, June 17, 2026

• The U.K. fined a unit of Sabre Corp. more than £1 million ($1.3 million) for breaching sanctions, the largest penalty leveled since sanctions were introduced following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. A U.K. subsidiary of Sabre, which provides ticketing services for airlines, provided Russian carrier Ural Airlines access to its Global Distribution System for seven months after the company was sanctioned in 2022, according to a statement from the Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation. (Bloomberg, 06.17.26)
• Russia’s National Payment Card System (NSPK) plans to make issuing Visa and Mastercard unprofitable by cutting their interchange fees to 1% in 2027 and 0% from 2028, effectively phasing out the brands domestically after they exited the Russian market following the full‑scale invasion. (Meduza, 06.17.26)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations:  

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said envoys from France, Germany and the U.K. brought “nothing new” to a June 11 meeting at the Foreign Ministry and accused Europeans of “illusory” beliefs that Russia is losing and can be forced to accept ultimatums; he added that upcoming talks with Trump’s special envoys in Moscow will focus on implementing understandings allegedly reached on Aug. 15, 2025, in Anchorage. (Ukrainska Pravda/European Pravda, 06.15.26) 

Sunday, June 14, 2026

• On June 14, Trump held separate calls with Zelenskyy and Putin, with Zelenskyy saying they discussed peace ideas and Ukraine’s battlefield gains, while Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said Trump and Putin talked about the wars in Ukraine and Iran and Trump “emphasized the need to end” the Ukraine conflict; no concrete new framework has yet been announced. (ISW, 06.14.26)
  • Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said Putin and Trump held a 55‑minute “friendly and frank” birthday call on June 14, discussing a near‑final U.S.–Iran memorandum and the Ukraine war; Trump again stressed the need to end hostilities and promised to press Europeans and Kyiv at the G7, while Putin reiterated that Ukrainian strikes on Russian civilian infrastructure won’t change Ukraine’s “critical” battlefield situation and repeated that if Zelenskyy wants a meeting “let him come to Moscow,” as Russian envoys Kushner and Witkoff prepare another trip. (Kremlin, 06.14.26)
  • Zelenskyy confirmed he had a “wonderful” birthday call with Trump, saying they discussed how to bring peace closer, U.S. support from Javelins to Patriots, and agreed to meet at the G7 summit in France to talk through “good ideas” for ending the war; Zelenskyy also praised Trump’s remark that Russia’s 2014 seizure of Crimea was the true start of the conflict. (RBC.ua, 06.15.26)

Monday, June 15, 2026

• Ukrainian officials say Kyiv recently proposed a Zelenskyy–Putin meeting on the sidelines of the G7 summit, with G7 leaders including Donald Trump present as witnesses; Moscow never gave a clear reply, and presidential aide Fyodor Ushakov instead suggested Zelenskyy “come to Moscow,” after which Ukraine was hit by a massive missile‑and‑drone barrage that Bankova views as a de facto answer. (RBC.ua, 06.15.26)

Tuesday, June 16, 2026

• Asked at the G7 in Évian whether Ukraine remains a priority, Trump said the war was “no longer high” on his list.  Trump bluntly told reporters the United States has “nothing to do” with the Ukraine war beyond selling weapons, saying it is “thousands of miles away” and not a priority compared with Iran. Though he called his meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy “very good” and repeated that Russia “should make a deal,” Trump signaled no special focus on Ukraine, underscoring European fears that Washington’s security commitment has sharply diminished. Macron brokered two meetings between Trump and Zelenskyy on sidelines of the summit. Trump said held a "very good meeting" with Zelenskyy. Later, in an English-language interview with Reuters, Zelenskyy claimed that for the first time there was "unanimity" at the G7 regarding the war. Trump called the Ukraine war “sort of the same thing” with both sides “losing soldiers,” estimating “25,000 young people die every month.” (New York Times, 06.16.26; Bloomberg, 06.16.26; Wall Street Journal, 06.16.26; iStories, 06.16.26; Washington Post, 06.16.26; RFE/RL, 06.16.26;Washington Post, 06.17.26)  

Wednesday, June 17, 2026

• G-7 leaders meeting at the Évian summit issued a joint “statement on geopolitical issues” reaffirming strong backing for Kyiv. “We, the Leaders of the G7, stand united in our unwavering support for Ukraine in defending its freedom, sovereignty, and territorial integrity,” they said, adding: “We reaffirm our solidarity with the Ukrainian population suffering from attacks on their critical infrastructure and cultural heritage.” Noting that “we commend Ukraine for its resilience and progress on the battlefield in recent months and emphasize there is now a new momentum,” the leaders pledged new military and economic measures. “To support and accelerate this new momentum, we agree to increase the delivery of air defense capacities, additional systems and interceptors, and long-range capabilities,” the statement said. “We are also ready to consider extending to Ukraine the benefit of licenses to allow for an increase in Ukraine’s military production.” Stressing “the importance of energy resilience, on the basis of the needs and priorities expressed by Ukrainian authorities,” they vowed: “We agree to provide further support to get the country through next winter.” That commitment is repeated several times in the text: “We agree to provide further support to get the country through next winter. We agree to provide further support to get the country through next winter. We agree to provide further support to get the country through next winter.” On Russia, the leaders said: “We commit to increase the pressure on the Russian war economy. In this context, we will strengthen our sanctions, including those on the oil and gas sectors.” (Élysée, 06.17.26) 
• EU Council chief António Costa’s office has opened back‑channel contacts with the Kremlin about potential Ukraine talks: his chief of staff Pedro Lourtie recently held calls with a senior Putin aide to “open communication channels,” though no substance was discussed. Some capitals back Costa as a collective EU envoy; others tout figures like Sauli Niinistö or Mario Draghi, while Moscow has floated Gerhard Schröder — seen in Europe as a non‑starter. (Financial Times, 06.17.26)

Thursday, June 18, 2026

• Zelenskyy said a “coordinating” phone call with Trump and Emmanuel Macron after the G7 “could change a lot,” reviewing their summit talks and next steps on peace efforts. He thanked Trump for “attention to Ukraine and readiness to help establish peace” and praised Macron for hosting the summit and “fruitful joint work.” (RBC.ua, 06.18.26)
• The European Union needs to appoint an envoy for peace talks with Russia when the time is right, Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs said, as the bloc seeks to play a role in ending the war in Ukraine. “Europe has to be at the table,” Kulbergs told Bloomberg TV in his first interview with international media since taking office last month. “There should be one person if the peace talks are in place who has the political mandate to do that.” His comments come as the EU is looking to seize the initiative in negotiations with the U.S. increasingly distracted by other priorities. European Council President Antonio Costa has made contact with the Kremlin in an effort to engage Putin in discussions about how to end the war in Ukraine, Bloomberg reported June 17. (Bloomberg, 06.18.26)
• Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said that at the Évian G7 summit “European leaders were pumping Trump with useless, if not harmful, ideas” about Ukraine, but said the U.S. president “is a strong politician and sticks to his views.” He confirmed there have been no Russia–U.S. contacts since the summit. (Ukrainska Pravda, 06.18.26) 

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

Monday, June 15, 2026

• Investigators say the suspected organizer of the Starmer‑linked arson plot in the UK is a Russian handler using the Telegram alias “El Money,” identified by FT and BBC reporting as 23‑year‑old Russian diplomat Evgeny Lyukshin, trained in information warfare and aligned with pro‑Kremlin hacktivist group NoName057(16). (Financial Times, 06.15.26; BBC, 06.15.26) 
  • A follow‑up FT probe into the Russia‑run “Direct Action” network finds at least one additional, unidentified operative in London: CCTV shows a man with a barbed‑wire wrist tattoo spraying anti‑Muslim graffiti on a Leyton Islamic primary school, distinct from arsonist Roman Lavrynovych, who lacks such a tattoo. Both men were allegedly handled via Telegram by “El Money,” a Russia‑based figure linked to hacktivist group NoName057(16), raising questions over the UK’s wider response to this “terrorism‑adjacent” hate campaign. (Financial Times, 06.17.26) 
• Finnish authorities on June 15 charged the Russian captain and a senior crew member of a cargo ship suspected of severing two undersea telecommunications cables linking Finland and Estonia on New Year's Eve. The Fitburg, a cargo vessel traveling from Russia to Israel, was boarded by Finnish authorities on Dec. 31 after it was suspected of intentionally dropping its anchor to damage communications infrastructure in the Gulf of Finland. (MT/AFP, 06.15.26)

Tuesday, June 16, 2026

• The U.K. MoD says the Russian frigate Admiral Grigorovich fired warning shots near, but not at, the British‑flagged yacht Bright Future about 20 nautical miles south of the Isle of Wight, to avert a possible collision in fog. The retired couple aboard, Alan and Jane Kelvey, say they heard horn blasts then small‑arms fire; the incident, which caused no damage, is assessed as “isolated” and unrelated to Britain’s recent seizure of the Russian tanker Smyrtos. (Financial Times, 06.17.26)

Wednesday, June 17, 2026

• NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte said there will be no separate Ukraine–NATO Council leaders’ meeting at July’s Ankara summit; instead there will be a single plenary with all 32 allies where Zelenskyy participates alongside others. He noted the Council’s early‑June meeting in Kyiv at ambassador level was “emotional” and helped secure additional Patriot systems and missiles for Ukraine sooner than the previously expected 2030 timeline. (European Pravda, 06.17.26) 
• The North Atlantic Treaty Organization will deploy an Italian SAMP/T missile-defense system to a key Turkish air base in central Anatolia, according to the Turkish defense ministry, to bolster the alliance’s air defenses. (Bloomberg, 06.17.26)

Thursday, June 18, 2026

• U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told NATO counterparts in Brussels the Pentagon will conduct a six‑month review of U.S. force posture in Europe as Washington moves to “scale back its military footprint” and shift more of NATO’s burden to European allies, including cutting about a third of fighter jets and other high‑end assets assigned to the NATO Force Model; Hegseth unveiled the review weeks before the Ankara NATO summit and after announcing the withdrawal of 5,000 U.S. troops from Germany and cancellation of a planned long‑range fires battalion deployment, warning that “where other allies do not spend with urgency, our dues contributions will go down,” and confirming U.S. proposals to pull one of two carrier strike groups and all Tomahawk‑capable submarines from NATO’s rapid‑reaction pool, insisting “NATO will be a two‑way street.” (Washington Post, 06.18.26; Financial Times, 06.18.26) 

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• The European Union’s top diplomat said China has been training Russian troops to fight in Ukraine, sharpening Brussels’ criticism of Beijing’s enabling role in the conflict as the bloc weighs a tougher economic and security stance. “We have also now verified reports that the Chinese military has been training Russian military personnel to fight in Ukraine,” EU High Representative Kaja Kallas said June 15 after a meeting of foreign ministers in Luxembourg. “We are carefully assessing the implications.” Kallas did not name or elaborate on the reports. Reuters reported last month that the Chinese military secretly trained about 200 Russian military personnel in China late last year and some have since returned to fight in Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 06.16.26)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• No significant developments.

Counterterrorism:

• Russia’s FSB detained 54‑year‑old Hasan Altemirov in Ingushetia, accusing the member of the banned Batal‑Khaji Belkhoroyev “virda” of aiding a terrorist community by providing fake passports to at least three wanted militants, including Batyr Kulaev, who allegedly armed the gunmen that attacked Crocus City Hall and used the forged documents to flee abroad. (Kommersant, 06.13.26)
• Former FSB director Nikolai Patrushev claimed in a Rossiyskaya Gazeta interview that rescue services—not security forces—were to blame for most of the 2002 Dubrovka theater hostage deaths, saying they “panicked” and mishandled antidotes after a gas assault; at the time the Emergencies Ministry, which led those services, was headed by Sergei Shoigu. (Meduza, 06.16.26)

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• Ukraine has turned to AI-assisted interceptors to combat Russia drones according to the NYT. While in the first years of the war Ukraine relied on machine guns, electronic warfare, and missiles to bring down Russian drones, “Last August, the Ukrainian military began to widely deploy interceptor drones piloted by humans, without A.I.” In recent months, Ukrainian company Skyfall reported that they developed interceptors that “have made dozens of A.I.-assisted strikes on Shahed-type drones.” This is just one of what Ukrainians claim are “a range of A.I.-powered weapons that have been deployed in recent months.” Further advances in AI may “eventually allow one pilot to oversee several missions, instead of just one at a time,” and help negate Russia’s manpower advantage as a result. Zelenskyy has warned that “It’s only a matter of time… before drones are fighting drones, attacking critical infrastructure and targeting people all by themselves.” While Ukrainian officials have stressed that drones still need human confirmation before engaging a target, the author argues that “at this point it is clearly an ethical, rather than a technological, limitation.” (New York Times, 06.15.26) See highlights section for comments on this news item.
• An Estonian study of 60 generative AI models found Europe’s “sovereign” champion Mistral performing poorly against Russian disinformation, with its best system ranking 47th and all four Mistral models scoring under 40% at filtering known propaganda sources, well behind Anthropic’s Claude and some Chinese models. (Financial Times, 06.16.26)

Energy exports from CIS:

Sunday, June 14, 2026

• British forces boarded and detained the Cameroon‑flagged tanker Smyrtos in the English Channel, the UK’s first direct seizure of a Russian “shadow fleet” oil ship; the vessel was carrying about 700,000 barrels of crude from Russia’s Ust‑Luga port and had just been de‑flagged by Cameroon, allowing UK and French authorities to treat it as effectively stateless and subject to interception under international law. (Financial Times, 06.14.26) 

Monday, June 15, 2026

• ISW reports British forces intercepted the Cameroon‑flagged, UK‑sanctioned Russian “shadow fleet” tanker Smyrtos in the English Channel on June 14, the first UK seizure of such a vessel; ship‑tracking data show several other Russian tankers abruptly changed course to avoid the Channel, and analysts say sustained EU/UK interdictions could significantly hinder Russia’s ability to move sanctioned oil. (ISW, 06.14.26)
• A New York Times analysis says China has helped cap post‑Iran‑war oil prices by slashing crude imports from an average 11.6 million barrels per day before the war to under 8 million in May 2026, drawing roughly 1 million bpd from commercial stocks and leaning on its vast clean‑energy buildout and 1.23 billion‑barrel strategic reserve to reduce exposure to the supply shock. (New York Times, 06.15.26)

Tuesday, June 16, 2026

• Russia is shipping near-record volumes of crude as Ukraine keeps up its attacks on its neighbor's oil refineries, forcing evermore barrels into the global market even as production falls. Four-week average crude shipments were 3.83 million barrels a day in the period to June 14, unchanged from the previous week at the highest pace for the year so far, tanker-movements data compiled by Bloomberg show. Year-to-date average flows of 3.49 million barrels a day exceed the annual averages for each year since Moscow’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 06.16.26)
• Kyiv’s KSE’s analysis concludes that the EU ban on petroleum products refined from Russian crude in third countries has effectively closed a major sanctions gap, with imports from 11 refineries in India, Turkey, Brunei and Georgia falling 69% in February–April 2026 versus the second half of 2025, though some volumes from plants lacking clearly separated Russian/non‑Russian capacity still reach the EU and Russian‑linked products continue flowing to other coalition markets such as the U.S. and Australia.(KSE Institute, 06.16.26)
• Tatneft, Russia’s fifth-largest oil producer, has placed strict limits on gasoline and diesel purchases at its gas stations nationwide, Russian media reported, a move that comes days after Ukrainian drones attacked one of the company’s refineries. (MT/AFP, 06.16.26)

Wednesday, June 17, 2026

• A temporary U.S. sanctions waiver allowing the sale and delivery of Russian seaborne crude oil expired for the third time on June 17, following comments made by U.S. President Donald Trump earlier this week that his administration is unlikely to renew it. Speaking at the G7 summit in France on Tuesday, Trump said his administration would “soon” be able to reimpose sanctions on Russian crude “because the oil is now flowing” through the Strait of Hormuz. “We took sanctions off because obviously we’re not looking to impede the oil,” Trump said, adding that the White House is now “in a position” to let the temporary general license lapse. (MT/AFP, 06.17.26)
• Russia’s state railway monopoly announced June 17 the creation of a specialized task force to manage fuel transportation across the country, as an increasing number of regions implement rationing measures amid a coordinated Ukrainian drone campaign against oil refineries and supply lines. (MT/AFP, 06.17.26)

Thursday, June 18, 2026

• Russian gasoline prices advanced further, with Ukrainian attacks on refineries forcing some filling stations to limit sales just as the summer vacation season gets underway. Average retail gasoline prices increased 1% week-on-week to 69.11 rubles ($0.95) a liter in the June 9-15 period, according to data published by the Federal Statistics Service late June 17. (Bloomberg, 06.17.26)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

Saturday, June 13, 2026

• A U.S. federal court in New York sentenced Russian citizen Nomm Zarubina to 14 months in prison for lying to the FBI about cooperation with the FSB and attempting naturalization fraud by hiding ties to a prostitution ring; prosecutors had sought 18–24 months, and U.S. authorities earlier accused her of cultivating contacts among journalists and academics at the FSB’s direction. (Istories, 06.13.26)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russian economic commentator Vyacheslav Shiryayev, citing unnamed sources, says FSO guards were removed from the home of Central Bank chief Elvira Nabiullina almost two weeks ago and that she has gone into “hard opposition,” with new deputy chairman Mikhail Mamuta now effectively running internal CBR processes; he adds that the Kremlin might still try to force her back into the role to avoid a high‑profile resignation. (Shiryayev via @ejdailyru) 

Tuesday, June 16, 2026

• Putin signed a decree setting elections to the State Duma for Sept. 20, 2026 (with three days of voting from September 18), which will coincide with gubernatorial races in 11 regions and elections to 39 regional parliaments; the Kremlin has reportedly set targets of 50% turnout and 55% for United Russia, and wants at least 100 of the 450 deputies to be veterans of the war against Ukraine. (Istories, 06.16.26)
• Russian opposition politicians and activists have launched a new political party, betting that a formal political structure can help unite Russia’s fragmented anti-war movement and eventually challenge Putin’s rule. Led by Ilya Yashin, a former political prisoner and close ally of late Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny, Peaceful Russia seeks to act on behalf of Russians both inside and outside the country. (MT/AFP, 06.16.26)

Wednesday, June 17, 2026

• Russia’s federal deficit hit 5.87 trillion rubles ($81 billion) in the first four months of 2026. (Wall Street Journal, 06.17.26)

Thursday, June 18, 2026

• Russia plans to boost 2026 war spending by an extra 4–5 trillion rubles, roughly a 40% increase over the current budget allocation. The deficit for the first five months already reached 6 trillion rubles (2.6% of GDP), about 60% above the full‑year target, while servicing existing domestic debt costs 4 trillion rubles (around 9% of federal spending), making war‑related borrowing increasingly expensive and risky. (Meduza, 06.18.26)
• Over the next decade, Russia will pay out at least 15% of gross domestic product in total interest to service its debt—roughly equivalent to the country’s entire public debt stock today, according to Bloomberg Economics calculations. Domestic issuance is expected to increase this year because the wartime economy requires additional financing, according to people familiar with budget discussions. Defense spending this year could be 4–5 trillion rubles ($55-$69 billion) higher than originally budgeted, or almost 40% above planned spending, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing sensitive issues. (Bloomberg, 06.18.26)
• Russian prosecutors asked a Moscow court to sentence Yabloko deputy chair Maxim Kruglov to eight years in a penal colony under Article 207.3 (spreading “false information” about the army), over two identical posts in Telegram and VK about the Bucha massacre. Kruglov, in pre‑trial detention since October 2025, denies guilt. Witnesses include a 25‑year‑old United Russia supporter and a 23‑year‑old Young Guard activist who say they reported his posts to security agencies in 2025–2026. (Istories, 06.18.26)

Defense and aerospace:

Saturday, June 13, 2026

• Putin signed a new decree raising the authorized strength of the Russian armed forces to 2,399,130 total personnel, including 1,510,000 troops—an increase of only 7,360 over March’s figure—but ISW notes these small annual bumps (after earlier hikes of 137,000 in 2022, 170,000 in 2023 and 180,000 in 2024) mainly serve to legitimize Shoigu-era plans to expand Russia’s force structure rather than meaningfully change conditions on the Ukrainian battlefield. (ISW, 06.13.26)
• Economist Janis Kluge, citing Russian Finance Ministry data, estimates Moscow spent 5.9 trillion rubles (~$81.4 billion) on the military in Q1 2026—46% of all federal spending and about two‑thirds of total budget revenues for January–April—while overall military outlays are already 2.5% of projected 2026 GDP and classified expenditures (about 85% of which go to the armed forces) have jumped 43% year‑on‑year. (ISW, 06.13.26)

Monday, June 15, 2026

• A Russian strategic bomber crashed during a training flight in Siberia’s Irkutsk region, the Interfax news agency reported June 15, citing Russia’s Defense Ministry. A video shared by outlets with links to Russia’s security services captured the Tupolev Tu-22M3 bomber nosediving into the ground, followed by a thick plume of smoke rising from the site of the impact. (MT/AFP, 06.15.26)
• Russia’s Defense Ministry has quietly canceled the main Navy Day parade in St. Petersburg for the second year in a row, with naval sources saying “now is not the time,” after 2024’s event was scaled down and 2025’s parade called off over “security considerations.” (Meduza, 06.15.26)

Tuesday, June 16, 2026

• Amid growing fuel shortages blamed on Ukrainian drone strikes, Rosneft and its subsidiaries Bashneft and TNK have temporarily banned gasoline sales into canisters across their networks in Russia and capped direct tank fills at roughly 90 liters, following earlier limits by Tatneft. (Meduza, 06.16.26)
• A Tu‑22M3 long‑range bomber crashed while approaching to land in Russia’s Irkutsk region during a training flight; the Defense Ministry says the crew ejected safely and the aircraft carried no munitions. It is the third Tu‑22M3 loss reported in Irkutsk region since August 2024. (Meduza, 06.16.26) 

Wednesday, June 17, 2026

• A Dallas Analytics investigation says Russia’s “Oreshnik” medium‑range ballistic missile uses a Soviet GU‑503 gyroscope from the 1970s, based on leaked correspondence from the Progress plant and imagery of missile debris. Factory officials admit test/calibration equipment has failed and cannot be replaced, warning of high costs and quality problems under rushed timelines; analysts say gyro errors at hypersonic speed can cause Oreshnik to miss by tens of kilometers. (Istories, 06.17.26)
•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

Monday, June 15, 2026

• An Istories investigation identifies one of two men shot dead by the FSB in Ukhta on April 24 as Vladimir Evstigneev, a Communist Party member and former aide to Duma deputy Oleg Mikhailov, alleged by security services to have planned a drone attack on an oil site; rights journalists note this is at least the 84th documented killing during an FSB “detention” since the full‑scale invasion began. (Istories, 06.15.26) 

Wednesday, June 17, 2026

• FSB officers raided multiple properties tied to St. Petersburg port tycoon Ilya Traber—a businessman with long‑standing ties to Putin—and his partner Vladimir Danilenko; both are reportedly suspected of organizing the 2020 contract killing of local entrepreneur and municipal deputy Alexander Petrov, and Traber is expected to be transferred to Moscow for questioning. On June 18, a Moscow judge has ordered the pre-trial detention of Ilya Traber. (Meduza, 06.17.26; MT/AFP, 06.18.26)
• Russian security services have searched the home of Gennady Petrov, a key figure in the Petrov–Malyshev crime group and long‑time associate of Putin, in parallel with the arrest of port tycoon Ilya Traber over a 2020 contract killing. Petrov, linked to the Bank Rossiya circle (“Ozero” cooperative) and major road projects like Tavrida and Scandinavia, was wiretapped in Spain in the 2000s discussing senior appointments with top Russian officials. (Istories, 06.17.26)

Thursday, June 18, 2026

• Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said police have detained a suspect in the June 15 killing of Russian satirist Semyon Skrepetsky in Biała Podlaska: a man traveling on a Georgian passport, believed to be a 36‑year‑old of Chechen origin using false documents. Two Belarusian nationals initially held—including a taxi driver who transported the alleged assailants from Warsaw—have been released after investigators found no evidence of their involvement. (Meduza, 06.18.26)

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

Sunday, June 14, 2026

• This year, Serbia granted citizenship to four times as many Russians as people of all other nationalities combined, and some of them were under international sanctions, an RFE/RL analysis shows. This is a red flag for the EU. Because Serbia has visa-free access to the bloc, these passports give blacklisted individuals an all-access pass to Europe. (RFE/RL, 06.14.26)

Tuesday, June 16, 2026

• Polish authorities say two Belarusian nationals have been detained in connection with the shooting of Russian satirist Semyon Skrepetsky (aka Robert Kuzovkov) in Biała Podlaska on June 15, but the direct gunman remains at large; Skrepetsky, known for mocking Putin and Kadyrov, had protested outside Russia’s Berlin embassy three days earlier and received online threats, and Polish media widely describe the killing as a “political execution.” (Meduza, 06.16.26)

Wednesday, June 17, 2026

• Away from Europe, Putin is hosting a Russia–ASEAN summit in Kazan to deepen trade and political ties with Southeast Asian states such as Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov says leaders will focus on expanding “mutually beneficial” investment and emphasizing support for a “multipolar world order,” while several ASEAN countries continue or consider importing discounted Russian crude—underscoring how Moscow is courting alternative markets as Western sanctions and shadow‑fleet crackdowns tighten. (Washington Post/AP, 06.17.26)
• Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Putin discussed using local currencies in bilateral trade as part of efforts to strengthen economic ties. The leaders discussed “exploring mechanisms” to expand bilateral trade and investment using the ringgit and ruble, according to a statement from Malaysia’s Prime Minister’s Office on June 18. They also reviewed opportunities for greater energy cooperation, including Russia’s commitment to long-term collaboration on energy and oil supplies. The two also explored ways to expand economic ties. (Bloomberg, 06.17.26)
• Russia’s Foreign Ministry says it issued 1,112 visas in 2025 under a decree for foreigners who “share traditional Russian spiritual and moral values,” mainly to citizens of Germany (168), France (140) and the U.S. (105), offering fast‑track residence to those rejecting “destructive neoliberal” policies abroad. (Meduza, 06.17.26)

Ukraine:

Monday, June 15, 2026

• EU officials are formally opening accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova in Luxembourg, starting with a “fundamentals” reform cluster on rule of law, justice and procurement; the NYT notes the average EU entry process takes about nine years, and Hungary’s new PM Péter Magyar says Ukraine’s path will likely take 10–15 years and still require a Hungarian referendum, despite Kyiv’s hope for membership “as soon as 2027.” (New York Times, 06.15.26)

Tuesday, June 16, 2026

• The EU formally opened accession talks with Ukraine in Luxembourg after Hungary’s new leadership dropped Viktor Orbán’s veto, launching the first negotiating cluster on rule of law, judicial independence, anti‑corruption and human rights—though many capitals remain wary Ukraine can meet all standards and join by decade’s end. (Financial Times, 06.16.26) 
• Despite Russian drone and missile attacks from the Black Sea, real estate agents say Odesa’s property market is surging past prewar levels. Luxury seaside homes and new apartments are selling fast, driven by locals, Kyiv buyers, and displaced Ukrainians. For many in the city, life by the sea continues—guarded by air defenses. (RFE/RL, 06.16.26)

Wednesday, June 17, 2026

• G7 leaders see Ukraine’s newly opened EU accession talks as a crucial long‑term security anchor. (Washington Post, 06.17.26)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

Friday, June 12, 2026

• EU ambassadors agreed to formally open accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova on June 17 in Luxembourg, launching negotiations across 35 “chapters” despite the ongoing war; EU leaders called the move a “strategic choice” for Europe’s security, while noting that Kyiv still faces long, difficult reforms and that some states are floating interim “associate membership” as full EU entry could take years. (Washington Post/AP, 06.13.26)

Tuesday, June 16, 2026

• A May 2026 Levada Center poll finds Russians still see Belarus (80%) and China (63%) as top allies, followed by Kazakhstan and India (33% each) and North Korea (26%), with Iran rising to 18%. Germany (51%), the U.S. (50%), Ukraine (48%), the UK (44%) and Poland (33%) top the list of “hostile” states, while negative views of Israel have jumped to 12% and of Ukraine have risen 17 points since 2022. (Levada, 06.16.26)
• Armenia will hold Eagle Partner 2026 military exercises on June 17–25 with 250 Armenian peacekeepers and contingents from three NATO states—58 U.S. troops, 24 French and 11 Greek—marking the first four-way iteration of the drills and underscoring Yerevan’s deepening security ties with the West as relations with Moscow deteriorate. (Meduza, 06.16.26)

Wednesday, June 17, 2026

• Brussels is preparing “autonomous trade measures” to cut tariffs on most Armenian food and agricultural exports worth about €420 million a year, offsetting Russian bans on flowers, fruit, vegetables, brandy and mineral water imposed before Armenia’s June 7 elections. The plan, which needs EU Council and Parliament approval, is meant to show Yerevan the EU can be a “dependable partner” as Moscow weaponizes its dominance in Armenia’s customs union. (Financial Times, 06.17.26)

Thursday, June 18, 2026

• Lithuanian authorities say a young Russian man who crossed from Kaliningrad without a passport on Dec. 29, 2025, and spent months in detention for illegal border crossing withdrew his asylum application and “agreed” to be deported back to Russia on June 15, where he was immediately arrested. The NGO Slovo Zashchite says he was a deserter who had fled “directly from the war in Ukraine,” but Lithuania insists it treated the case purely as a migration and border‑crime issue. (Meduza, 06.18.26)

IV. Quotable and notable

• “Both [the Ukraine and Iran] conflicts have produced a similar outcome: a weaker power has trapped a stronger one in a costly confrontation,” Fiona Hill, [member of the Harvard Board of Overseers…] wrote in a policy paper for the Brookings Institution this week. “Like Putin, Trump did not have a plan for what would happen next.” (New York Times, 06.14.26)

Endnotes

1. Sources used: New York Times, 06.16.26; Bloomberg, 06.16.26; Wall Street Journal, 06.16.26; iStories, 06.16.26;  Washington Post, 06.16.26; RFE/RL, 06.16.26; Washington Post, 06.17.26.
2. DeepState did not publish updates on April 21, 2026, so we have used data from the next available date.
3. Sources used: New York Times, 06.18.26; Financial Times, 06.18.26; Istories, 06.18.26; Istories, 06.18.26; The Moscow Times, 06.18.26; RFE/RL, 06.18.26; RBC.ua, 06.18.26; RBC.ua, 06.18.26; Meduza, 06.18.26; Meduza, 06.18.26; Bloomberg, 06.18.26.
4. Text of the agreement between Washington and Tehran is available here. 
5. DeepState did not publish updates on April 21, 2026, so we have used data from the next available date.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

AI was used in production of this digest.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo: From left, U.S. President Donald Trump, French President Emmanuel Macron and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a working session at the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains, France, Tuesday, June 16, 2026. (AP Photo/Thibault Camus, Pool)