6 Things to Know

1. On June 3, Ukraine’s long-range drones struck an oil terminal in St. Petersburg on the opening day of Russia’s annual St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), according to FT, sending plumes of smoke over the city during “an event Vladimir Putin has tried to cultivate into a showcase of a modern and prosperous country,” NYT reports. But Ukraine has not escaped injury from the air either. On June 2, Russia launched one of its heaviest barrages of the war, firing 73 missiles and 656 attack drones at Kyiv and multiple regions, killing at least 22 people and injuring more than 100 across Ukraine, including six dead in Kyiv and 16 in Dnipro. Ukraine’s air force says it downed 40–41 missiles and about 602 drones but intercepted only 11 of 33 Iskander‑M ballistic missiles and none of eight hypersonic Zircon missiles. The attack, which damaged residential buildings and infrastructure in Kyiv, Dnipro, Kamianske, Kharkiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia, comes as Western estimates put Russian combat deaths near 500,000 with 15,000–20,000 soldiers lost monthly.¹
2. RM’s analysis of ISW’s data for the past four weeks (May 5–June 3, 2026) indicates that Russian forces recorded a net loss of 93 square miles of Ukraine’s territory (about the size of the land area of Martha’s Vineyard), about double the 46 square miles Russia lost during the previous four-week period (April 7–May 5, 2026). In contrast, data from Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group, indicates that in the past four weeks (May 5–June 3, 2026) Russian forces made a net gain of 3 square miles (8 square kilometers).^2,3 Additionally, according to FT's analysis of DeepState data, Russian forces gained 5 square miles (14 square kilometers) of Ukrainian territory during the month of May. A source linked to Ukrainian military intelligence (DeepState) agrees, reporting that Russia gained just 14 square kilometers in May 2026 and suggesting net gains were actually negative once Ukrainian advances during the same period are included, ISW reports. If true, this would make May 2026 the first month since 2023 in which Russia lost more territory than it gained. ISW notes its own methodology differs but finds this broadly consistent with its assessment of minimal Russian progress. 
3. At this week’s SPIEF, Vladimir Putin reassured audiences that Russia’s conquest of the Donbas was proceeding apace. On June 4, at a meeting with heads of international news agencies, Putin announced that “recently, the Russian army has taken control of more than 2,400 square kilometers of territory, completely liberating the territory of the Luhansk People's Republic, more than 80% of the territory of the Donetsk People's Republic and 80% of the territory of the Zaporizhzhia region.” And on June 5, at a plenary session of the SPIEF, Putin added “Doesn't Kyiv know that, as of April 1 of this year, the LPR has been completely controlled by the Russian Federation? And in the DPR, less than 15% remains under Kyiv's control. We are moving calmly but confidently toward achieving these goals. There's no doubt we will achieve this,” Interfax reports. Note that Putin’s is at least the fourth assertion of “complete Russian control” of Luhansk since 2023. On July 1, 2025, Leonid Pashenik make the same claim. Subsequent claims were made on April 1 of this year by Russia’s Ministry of Defense, and again on April 20 by Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.*
4. Volodymyr Zelenskyy proposed peace talks to Vladimir Putin in a rare and combative open letter on June 4. “Ukraine is ready for a full ceasefire for the duration of the negotiations,” Zelenskyy wrote. “We in Ukraine do not want a permanent war. We know very well that life without war is infinitely better. And we want to achieve that.” The letter also taunted the Russian leader over wartime setbacks, inflation and Russia’s dependence on China, and it made note of Putin’s advancing age, according to Bloomberg and NYT. For his part, Putin reportedly responded that he doesn’t “see the point” in meeting with Zelenskyy, Interfax reports. Given that Putin’s negative response was widely anticipated, Zelenskyy’s purpose in sending the open letter may have been more to counter the narrative that Ukraine is to blame for the ongoing war than to advance peace negotiations.
5. The U.S. is discussing whether to deploy nuclear weapons in additional European NATO states, in a move intended to reassure allies that reduced conventional military support does not weaken security guarantees, according to reports. U.S. officials have signaled openness to additional deployments beyond the existing six countries hosting nuclear-capable bombers, three people briefed on the discussions told the FT. One NATO country considering becoming a host is Lithuania, whose defense minister said that although the Lithuanian constitution currently prohibits hosting weapons of mass destruction on its soil, “Discussions are indeed taking place,” according to reporting by Bloomberg.
6. Ahead of Armenia’s June 7 elections, Moscow has sharply escalated pressure on Yerevan over its pro‑EU tilt. Russia has banned a wide range of Armenian exports (from fruit and vegetables to cognac, wine and Jermuk water), threatened to cut gas, fuel and diamond supplies, joined with Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan in demanding a referendum on choosing between the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union, recalled its ambassador, and warned that adopting EU standards would lead Russia to “wind down” economic integration and require work permits for Armenians, according to reporting by Meduza. Meanwhile, NYT reports that Russia has unleashed what researchers are calling an unusually intense barrage of overt and covert influence operations. On June 5, Putin escalated Russia’s threats by explicitly comparing Armenia’s potential turn to the West to Ukraine’s in 2014 by warning that “Armenia… was going down the same path as Ukraine,” according to NYT.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Russian authorities accuse Ukraine of two drone strikes on the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant on May 30–31, claiming hits on Unit 6’s turbine hall and a transport shop. Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry and Southern Defense Forces deny any attack, calling it a propaganda effort timed to an IAEA meeting. IAEA inspectors confirmed external turbine‑hall damage “consistent” with a drone impact but did not attribute it. Dmitry Medvedev threatened “symmetrical” strikes on Ukrainian or NATO nuclear plants if ZNPP were destroyed, despite Russia’s own long record of militarizing and endangering Ukrainian nuclear sites. (ISW, 05.31.26)
• Experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency inspected damage to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant on Sunday, a day after Russia claimed a Ukrainian drone had hit the idled atomic facility. The IAEA team said its observations—including pieces of debris and burned optical fiber remains—were “consistent with the impact of a drone,” according to a post on X. Russia on Saturday said a Ukrainian UAV struck the machine room building of one of power units. Radiation levels at the site remain normal, IAEA said. Rafael Mariano Grossi, director general of the UN atomic watchdog, said Saturday’s strike “was a serious incident that endangered key nuclear safety principles.” (Bloomberg, 05.31.26)
• The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said it has brokered a “localized ceasefire” in Russia’s war on Ukraine around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant to allow vital repairs. The United Nations’ nuclear agency reported that the ceasefire had taken effect on June 5 morning. (Al Jazeera, 06.05.26)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

Wednesday, June 3, 2026

• The House passed a resolution June 3 to block U.S. President Donald Trump from ordering further strikes on Iran, ratcheting up pressure on the administration to find a way to end the unpopular war. The effort faces sizable hurdles, however, before Congress could force Trump to end hostilities. (Washington Post, 06.03.26)

Friday, June 5, 2026

• Russia did not supply weapons to Iran, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated. "Regarding weapons, Iran hasn't asked us for them. We haven't supplied any weapons to Iran," Putin said, speaking at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF). He was also asked whether Russia had provided Iran with intelligence and satellite images. "Information is always on the table. Some modern surveillance equipment is dual-use. I don't know for sure, but the Iranians could very well have been receiving information not only from our satellites but also from other commercial satellites that sell it as a product on a commercial basis," he said. (Interfax, 06.05.26)
• Asked about the Iran war at SPIEF, Putin said Russia was in contact with the Islamic Republic, as well as the U.S. and Israel. Russia, he added, was ready to play a role in mediating peace. (NBC News, 06.05.26)
• Russia's proposal to remove enriched uranium from Iran remains valid, and Russia is in contact with the United States, Iran, and Israel on this issue, Putin stated. (Interfax, 06.05.26)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

Monday, June 1, 2026

• Russia has returned over 160 residents of the southwestern Kursk region more than a year after driving out occupying Ukrainian forces from border areas, the Kremlin’s new human rights ombudswoman said Monday. “Through the direct efforts of the Human Rights Commissioner’s office, we have successfully secured the return of 165 Kursk residents,” Yana Lantratova was quoted as saying by the state-run news agency TASS. Sixteen of those returned are children, Lantratova added. (MT/AFP, 06.01.26)

Friday, June 5, 2026

• Russia and Ukraine exchanged 185 prisoners of war each following mediation from the United Arab Emirates, the Russian Defense Ministry said on June 5. The group of Ukrainian soldiers includes defenders of Mariupol, including a participant in the helicopter missions that supplied the besieged Azovstal steel plant during the city’s defense. (MT/AFP, 06.05.26, Kyiv Post, 06.05.26)
• Russian insurance companies have started offering optional coverage for war-related risks, driving up the total cost of standard property insurance policies by up to 12%, the business newspaper Kommersant reported June 5. The new add-ons allow homeowners to buy protection against property damage caused by falling drone debris, missile explosions or malfunctioning Russian air defense systems. (MT/AFP, 06.05.26)

For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• RM’s analysis of ISW’s data for the past four weeks (May 5–June 3, 2026) indicates that Russian forces recorded a net loss of 93 square miles of Ukraine’s territory (about the size of the land area of Martha’s Vineyard), about double the 46 square miles Russia lost during the previous four-week period (April 7–May 5, 2026). In contrast, data from Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group, indicates that in the past four weeks (May 5–June 3, 2026) Russian forces made a net gain of 3 square miles (8 square kilometers).^4,5 Additionally, according to FT's analysis of DeepState data, Russian forces gained 5 square miles (14 square kilometers) of Ukrainian territory during the month of May. In the past week (May 26–June 3, 2026), Russia lost a net of 14 square miles, according to ISW’s data, as compared to the 38 square miles it lost from May 19–26, 2026. Data from Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group, indicates that in the past week, Russian forces lost a net 11 square miles (27 square kilometers).⁶ (RM, 06.05.26)
  • ISW itself estimates that from December 2025 to May 2026 Russian forces advanced into or infiltrated only 40.64 km² of territory, while losing control of about 281.1 km² over the same period. By contrast, from December 2024 to May 2025 they seized 515.84 km², meaning this year’s advances amount to just 7.87% of the previous year’s gains. (ISW, 06.01.26)
  • A source linked to Ukrainian military intelligence (DeepState) reports Russia occupied just 14 km² in May 2026 and suggests net gains were actually negative once Ukrainian advances are included, marking the first month since 2023 in which Russia lost more territory than it gained. ISW notes its own methodology differs but finds this broadly consistent with its assessment of minimal Russian progress. (ISW, 06.01.26)

Friday, May 29, 2026

• So far in 2026, Russia has captured only about 0.04% of Ukraine and in April suffered a net territorial loss, after 51 months of war it expected to win in weeks. The Economist estimates roughly 3% of Russia’s prewar fighting‑age male population has been killed or wounded. Ukrainian drones now reach up to 1,200 miles, putting 70% of Russia’s population within range, and in March Ukraine launched more cross‑border drones than Russia for the first time. (Washington Post, 05.29.26)
• Ukraine’s three‑tier drone campaign now fields “tens of thousands” of operational UAVs along a 750‑mile front, with mid‑range systems forcing Russian logistics hubs more than 150 km (93 miles) behind the lines. Long‑range drones have struck up to 1,100 miles inside Russia; since last summer, over 1,500 verified strikes have hit Russian territory. Ukraine launched about 7,000 drones into Russia in March alone, its first month outpacing Russian drone attacks. Russia, which once advanced ~150 square miles a month, lost more ground than it gained in April and is reportedly losing up to 25,000 soldiers monthly. (Washington Post, 05.29.26) 

Saturday, May 30, 2026

• On May 30, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Tsehelne. (RM, 06.05.26)
• Ukraine said its forces conducted a large overnight drone operation hitting 23 “military and strategic targets” in Russia and occupied territories, including an oil facility in Armavir about 500 km from the border, a “shadow fleet” tanker, an Iskander system and two Tu‑142 aircraft near Taganrog, where a drone strike on the port ignited a tanker, fuel tank and administrative building. Ukrainian drones also sparked fires at an oil depot and tanker in Taganrog and an oil depot in Armavir, as Kyiv’s expanded mid‑ and long‑range strike campaign now hits Russian oil infrastructure “almost daily,” while Russia continues large missile and drone barrages against Ukraine’s power grid and cities. (Washington Post, 05.30.26; RFE/RL, 05.30.26; Bloomberg, 05.30.26)
• Russia continues large missile and drone barrages against Ukraine’s power grid and cities; in April alone, Russian strikes killed at least 238 civilians and injured 1,404, according to UN monitors. In the latest wave, Russia launched seven missiles and about 290 drones at Ukraine, with air defenses reporting they downed five missiles and 279 drones, though targets including the railway station in Shostka (pre‑war population ~72,000) were hit. (Washington Post, 05.30.26; Bloomberg, 05.30.26)
• U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Trump’s 2027 budget will allocate $56 billion for “drone dominance,” citing lessons from Ukraine’s battlefield use of UAVs. He noted recent U.S. approvals of $108.1 million to modernize Ukraine’s HAWK air defenses and a $373.6 million JDAM sale, while acknowledging that new large U.S. grant packages are unlikely and Europe is now spending more overall. (NV, 05.30.26)
• Trump‑linked startup Foundation Future Industries has received $24 million in U.S. government research contracts across the Army, Navy and Air Force to test its Phantom humanoid robots for inspection, logistics and weapons‑handling roles. Founded in 2024, the firm has already sent two Phantom MK‑1 units to Ukraine for pilot trials, where they can currently carry about 44 pounds. (CNBC, 05.30.26) 

Sunday, May 31, 2026

• On May 31, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Pokrovsk and Zelene. (RM,06.05.26)
• Ukraine’s air force said May 31 that it had shot down 212 of 299 drones launched by Russia overnight. It said 14 drones had reached their targets, while drone debris fell in five locations. (Washington Post, 05.31.26)
• Ukraine’s mid-range drone and missile campaign is increasingly crippling Russian ground. Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps says it now has drone‑enabled fire control over key hubs such as Luhansk City, Starobilsk, Alchevsk, Bryanka and Kadiivka (50–90 km behind the front) and has struck as far as the Izvaryne checkpoint over 205 km from its launch points. Russian milbloggers report fuel shortages and disrupted rotations across occupied Donetsk, Luhansk and the main land corridor to Crimea as repeated strikes hit highways H‑20, H‑32, M‑03, M‑14 and M‑30. (ISW, 05.31.26)
• A major fire broke out at the Saratov oil refinery after a Ukrainian drone strike on May 31, according to Ukrainian military officials. The refinery is located about 600 kilometers from the Ukrainian border and is operated by Rosneft. (RFE/RL, 05.31.26)

Monday, June 1, 2026

• On June 1, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Illinivka. (RM,06.05.26)
• Ukraine says its drones hit Rosneft’s Saratov refinery about 700 km from the front, the Lazarevo pumping station in Kirov region over 1,200 km from Ukrainian‑held territory, and a fuel depot in Matveev Kurgan, Rostov region, causing large fires, as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described such cross‑border attacks as “long range sanctions” on Russia’s oil sector. In May, Ukraine carried out at least 16 strikes on Russian fuel‑producing facilities, hitting 8 of Russia’s 10 largest refineries and at least 30 oil assets overall, cutting refinery runs to about 4.58 million barrels/day, while Ukrainian drones also hit the R‑280 “Novorossiya” highway, disrupting fuel traffic to Crimea and helping trigger gasoline shortages there. (Bloomberg, 06.01.26; MT/AFP, 06.01.26; Meduza, 06.01.26; Washington Post, 06.01.26)
• Russian Defense Ministry contract recruitment slowed sharply at the end of 2025. Budget data analyzed by Vazhnye Istorii indicate about 1,100 people a day signed contracts in Q4 2025—1.5 times fewer than in Q4 2024. Total 2025 intake was 363,900, roughly 10% below 2024, while independent researcher Janis Kluge estimates that in Q1 2026 the rate fell further to 800–1,000 per day (about 20% down year‑on‑year). Official claims by Dmitry Medvedev of 422,700 recruits in 2025 exceed budget‑based figures by about 14%. (Istories, 06.01.26)
• Western officials now estimate nearly 500,000 Russian soldiers have been killed since February 2022, while U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio says Russia is losing 15,000–20,000 troops per month “not injured—dead.” DeepState UA also reports that despite a 37.5% increase in Russian attack attempts in May 2026, Russian forces still lost more territory than they gained, underscoring Russia’s worsening combat performance. (New York Times, 06.02.26) 
• An increasing Ukrainian ability to interdict Russian transportation nodes in rear areas with uncrewed aerial systems has likely been one of the enablers for Ukrainian success. Recent strikes on Russian logistics trucks in Donetsk city and along the hitherto largely untouched M-14 southern coastal highway, connecting Crimea with the Russian border east of Mariupol, are a new threat acknowledged by Russian military bloggers. (UK MOD X Account, 06.01.26)
• Russian forces have been making some gains in the northern Ukrainian border regions of Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts seeking to create a 20km deep buffer zone and stretch Ukrainian forces. The situation in Kostiantynivka, currently controlled by Ukrainian forces, has been deteriorating with Russian units increasingly operating within the city itself. Russia sees Kostiantynivka as a launchpad for further assaults deeper into the Donetsk oblast fortress belt. (UK MOD X Account, 06.01.26)

Tuesday, June 2, 2026

• On June 2, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Pryvillia. (RM, 06.05.26)
• Russia launched one of its heaviest barrages of the war overnight June 2, firing 73 missiles and 656 attack drones at Kyiv and multiple regions, killing at least 22 people and injuring more than 100 across Ukraine, including six dead in Kyiv and 16 in Dnipro, where repeat strikes killed a rescue worker; Ukraine’s air force says it downed 40–41 missiles and about 602 drones but intercepted only 11 of 33 Iskander‑M ballistic missiles and none of eight hypersonic Zircon missiles. The attack, which damaged residential buildings and infrastructure in Kyiv, Dnipro, Kamianske, Kharkiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia, comes as Western estimates put Russian combat deaths near 500,000 with 15,000–20,000 soldiers lost monthly, and DeepState UA calculates Russia gained just 14 sq km in May despite a 37.5% rise in assault attempts, as some attacks are now carried out by as few as one or two soldiers. (New York Times, 06.02.26; Meduza, 06.02.26; Wall Street Journal, 06.02.26; Washington Post, 06.02.26; Bloomberg, 06.02.26; Financial Times, 06.02.26)

Wednesday, June 3, 2026

• On June 3, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Illinivka. (RM, 06.05.26)
• Ukrainian drones on June 3 attacked St. Petersburg, Russia’s second-largest city, on the opening day of an annual economic conference that Putin has tried to cultivate into a showcase of a modern and prosperous country. On June 3, drones hit infrastructure facilities in three districts of St. Petersburg, causing damage and injuring several people, Aleksandr Beglov, the city’s governor, said in a statement. Nearly 60 drones were shot down in the Leningrad region, which surrounds the city, Aleksandr Drozdenko, the region’s governor, said. “Combat operations are ongoing,” Drozdenko said on Telegram. Zelenskyy on June 3 said his forces had struck the Petersburg Oil Terminal and “purely military targets” at Russia’s Kronstadt naval base. Putin is scheduled to address the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) on June 5. Russia's Defense Ministry said its forces downed more than 700 Ukrainian drones overall overnight. (Bloomberg, 06.03.26; RFE/RL, 06.03.26; New York Times, 06.03.26)
• Russia has increased the production of first-person view drones by roughly 30-fold over the last three years, with manufacturers now capable of supplying more than 15,000 units a day, a top government official said. “The special military operation has definitively established unmanned aerial vehicles as one of the key elements of modern warfare,” First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov said using the Kremlin’s term for the war in Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 06.03.26)
• A Ukrainian drone strike killed eight people and wounded 10 others in the occupied Donetsk region after crashing into a passenger bus, Kremlin-installed authorities said June 3 morning, as overnight attacks killed at least two people in Russia. In Russia, three employees of the Emergency Situations Ministry were killed and two firefighters were injured while responding to a blaze that had broken out as a result of a Ukrainian drone attack in the western Smolensk region. (MT/AFP, 06.03.26)
• According to the independent Russian media outlet Astra, Russian forces have dropped 25 glide bombs on Russian territory and occupied Ukraine so far in 2026. In 2025, there were 143 such instances, and 165 in 2024. The Russian air force currently conducts over 200 fighter sorties per day against Ukraine, averaging between 180–250 glide munition launches per day depending on weather conditions. The frequency of errors likely demonstrates a degree of air and ground crew fatigue within the Russian force, as well as exposing inadequate military training. (UK MOD X Account, 06.03.26)
• Some gas stations in Moscow and regions in northern Russia have begun introducing limits on fuel purchases following months of sustained Ukrainian drone attacks against major oil refineries across the country. Msk1.ru, a Moscow-based news outlet, reported that Lukoil gas stations in the Russian capital and surrounding region have capped gasoline sales at 100 liters (26.42 gallons) per driver. Gazprom’s gas stations are also restricting customers to purchases of 100-150 liters (26.42-39.63 gallons) for both regular gasoline and diesel, a customer service representative said. (MT/AFP, 06.03.26)

Thursday, June 4, 2026

• On June 4, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Rodynske. (RM, 06.05.26)
• Recently, the Russian army has taken control of more than 2,400 square kilometers of territory, completely liberating the territory of the Luhansk People's Republic, more than 80% of the territory of the Donetsk People's Republic, and 80% of the territory of the Zaporizhzhia region, Putin announced June 4 at a meeting with heads of international news agencies as part of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. (Interfax, 06.04.26)
• Overnight and early morning Ukrainian drone strikes have killed at least four people in the annexed Crimean peninsula, local authorities said June 4. Sergei Aksyonov, the Russian-appointed governor of Crimea, said three people were killed in an attack on “non-residential targets” in the central city of Simferopol at around 1:40 a.m. Moscow time. A fourth person was killed and three others wounded in an attack on a train heading from the town of Azovske to the eastern port of Kerch, Aksyonov wrote on Telegram later in the morning. In the port city of Sevastopol, the Kremlin-installed Governor Mikhail Razvozhayev said air defense systems intercepted more than 52 Ukrainian drones, adding that no one was injured. (MT/AFP, 06.04.26)
• Russian military vehicles are being painted with vivid stripes to baffle AI systems of Ukrainian-launched drones, experts say. Now the "cloaking" tactic has apparently launched a high-stakes game of hide and seek on the highways of Russian-held territory in Ukraine. Pictures of Russian military vehicles overpainted with "dazzle camouflage" emerged in recent days as Ukraine has ramped up a "middle strike" drone campaign to hit Russian logistics equipment up to 200 kilometers from the front lines. (RFE/RL, 06.04.26)
• Ukraine's recent battlefield gains and growing ability to disrupt Russian logistics appear to be eroding Moscow’s battlefield advantage—a shift that could eventually force the Kremlin to consider more decisive action, experts say. While Russian forces continue to make slow advances in the Donetsk region, the main focus of their offensive, some analysts say the balance on the battlefield is beginning to tilt in Ukraine's favor. Some analysts argue that if Ukraine sustains its pressure for the next few months and Russia fails to adapt, Moscow could be forced to choose between a politically risky mobilization to escalate its fight or returning to the negotiating table. (MT/AFP, 06.04.26)
• The Kremlin repeated this week that “the war could be ended before the end of the year or even within a day” if Kyiv withdraws from the occupied regions which Moscow considers its territory. (MT/AFP, 06.04.26)
• Authorities in annexed Crimea on June 4 halted gasoline sales and the distribution of fuel vouchers for the foreseeable future, as the peninsula faces a worsening shortage. “Starting today, cash sales of gasoline will be completely suspended for several days,” Sergei Aksyonov, the Russian-appointed governor of Crimea, said in a post on Telegram. Aksyonov, who warned earlier this week that the local gasoline shortage could last at least until July, also said that fuel vouchers introduced as a rationing measure are no longer available and “will not be reissued in the near future.” (MT/AFP, 06.04.26)

Friday, June 5, 2026

• “Doesn't Kyiv know that, as of April 1st of this year, the LPR has been completely controlled by the Russian Federation?! And in the DPR, less than 15% remains under Kyiv's control. We are moving calmly but confidently toward achieving these goals. There's no doubt we will achieve this," Putin said at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) on June 5. (Interfax, 06.05.26)
• Putin was asked how to guarantee a stable economic future and invite investors to Russia against the backdrop of Kyiv's attacks on Russia's critical infrastructure. "These attacks, of course, do not bode well. Moreover, they cause us certain damage," Putin said, speaking at the SPIEF plenary session on June 5. "For us, this means only one thing: that we must strengthen our security, our missile defense system, and our air defense, and we will do so," the head of state emphasized. (Interfax, 06.05.26)
• Russian forces have suffered at least 225,019 confirmed military deaths from Feb. 24, 2022, to June 2, 2026, Mediazona reports, including 7,226 officers of the Russian army and other security agencies. (RM, 06.05.26)
• A stray Ukrainian maritime drone exploded in the Romanian port of Constanța on Friday, the latest in a series of incidents where Kyiv’s assets have been diverted into neighboring NATO countries. Ukraine’s navy said it had lost control of one of its sea drones “while fulfilling tasks in the Black Sea operational zone” after it was jammed by Russian electronic warfare equipment. (Financial Times, 06.05.26)
• Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces are now enforcing its own naval blockade in the Sea of Azov. Overnight, Ukrainian FP-1/FP-2 OWA-UAVs struck at least five vessels in Russia-occupied ports of Berdyansk and Mariupol, as well as in the Azov Sea's waters near Russia-occupied territories of Ukraine. (Status-6 X Account, 06.05.26)
• At least seven people were killed across Ukraine between June 4 night and early June 5 as Russia launched hundreds of drones at the country overnight. Kyiv region Gov. Mykola Kalashnyk said four people were killed in an attack on a factory that makes dairy products for children. Separate strikes on Ukraine's central Dnipropetrovsk region killed two people, regional authorities said. A drone strike in the southern Zaporizhzhia region killed one woman, according to the Ukrainian state emergency service. Ukraine's air force said Russia fired at least 216 drones at Ukraine overnight, as well as two missiles. (MT/AFP, 06.05.26)
• An overnight drone attack on two cargo ships in the Sea of Azov left five Azerbaijani crew members dead, while at least one person was killed in a Ukrainian airstrike in the southwestern Belgorod region, Russian authorities said June 5. Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry said five of its citizens were killed and three others were wounded during an early morning attack on two commercial vessels, the Natra and the Zircon. A ministry spokesperson said that while the ships are not state-owned Azerbaijani property, they were carrying a crew of 25 Azerbaijani nationals when the strike occurred in Taganrog Bay—a narrow northeastern arm of the Sea of Azov bordered by Russia’s Krasnodar and Rostov regions. (MT/AFP, 06.05.26)
• Ukraine knew that the Russian president was not present during the drone attacks on the Valdai residence and Moscow, said Putin. "As for the residence or, say, the parade, that's none of my business. Then they (Ukraine) gave us information. And they said that we (the Ukrainians) knew you weren't there, at the residence. Why they did that is another matter," Putin said on Friday, answering a question at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. (Interfax, 06.05.26)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

Wednesday, June 3, 2026

• Defying Republican leaders, the House voted on June 4 to take up a bill to impose sweeping new sanctions on Russia and provide additional aid to Ukraine, after a bloc of G.O.P. defectors joined Democrats in an effort to ratchet up pressure on Moscow more than four years into the war. The legislation’s centerpiece is a broad package of sanctions targeting Russia’s oil and gas sector that is aimed at striking at the Kremlin’s primary source of wartime revenue. It would authorize roughly $1.8 billion in direct spending and more than $8 billion in loans for Ukraine’s war effort as the country continues to face deadly bombardment in Kyiv and other areas. (New York Times, 06.03.26)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

Saturday, May 30, 2026

• Kaupo Rosin, the head of Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service said About a third of Russia’s gross domestic product currently goes to the war effort. The war and ensuing sanctions have slowed growth and fueled stubborn inflation. Russian officials planned to have a budget deficit of 3.7 trillion rubles ($52.1 billion) for the whole of 2026 and had already reached about 3.4 trillion rubles ($47.9 billion) by the end of February, Rosin said. (Washington Post, 05.30.26)

Thursday, June 4, 2026

• Hungary said it will back a full year’s extension of the European Union’s sanctions against Russia in a major reversal from its previous role in stonewalling the process, according to people familiar with the matter. (Bloomberg, 06.04.26)
• Pirelli & Co. SpA denied a report from short seller Grizzly Research LLC that raised concerns about the Italian tire maker’s links to Russia and its military. The Grizzly report says Russia’s military appears to be a major customer of Pirelli in occupied Ukraine and that Russia is a significant source of the tire maker’s profit. In a statement, Pirelli said Grizzly’s report doesn’t reflect the truth, and that it doesn’t produce tires for military purposes. (Bloomberg, 06.04.25)
• A number of European Union member states are pushing the European Commission to put forward legislation that makes it easier to deny tourist visas to Russian citizens over Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Sweden will put the issue on the table -- supported by the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, and the Netherlands as well as non-EU Schengen members Iceland and Norway—when the bloc's interior ministers meet in Luxembourg for their regular monthly meeting on June 4. (RFE/RL, 06.04.26)

Friday, June 5, 2026

• Some foreign investors who left the Russian market are showing interest in returning, and Russia will welcome their return if the companies have behaved correctly and do not conflict with the interests of domestic players, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF). (Interfax, 06.05.26)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Wednesday, June 3, 2026

• A group of Ukraine’s key European allies are working on plans with Kyiv to engage Russia in negotiations to end the war as they see a shift in momentum strengthening President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s position. Officials from Europe’s three biggest economies—Germany, France and the UK—have been discussing the possibility of holding talks involving both sides, according to people familiar with the matter. They have also talked about the matter with their Ukrainian counterparts, said the people. (Bloomberg, 06.03.26)

Thursday, June 4, 2026

• Zelenskyy proposed peace talks to Russian leader Vladimir Putin in a rare and combative open letter on Thursday, as efforts to end more than four years of war gained momentum. “Ukraine is ready for a full ceasefire for the duration of the negotiations,” Zelenskyy wrote. “We in Ukraine do not want a permanent war. We know very well that life without war is infinitely better. And we want to achieve that.” The letter, posted on the Ukrainian president’s website, offered to resume peace talks—but taunted the Russian leader over wartime setbacks, inflation and Russia’s dependence on China. It also made note of Putin’s advancing age. (Bloomberg, 06.04.26, New York Times, 06.04.26)
  • “We see that the United States is fully focused on the issue of Iran, and it would be wrong to simply wait until the war in Europe returns to the center of its attention,” Zelenskyy wrote. “Ukraine proposes ending this war through direct engagement between us—and you. I am proposing a meeting.” (Wall Street Journal, 06.05.26)
  • U.S. President Donald Trump welcomed the Ukrainian initiative. “I’m glad that they’re maybe talking about meeting, I think we had a lot to do with it,” Trump said when asked about the letter by a reporter Thursday in the Oval Office. “But I think it would be great if they met, they should get it done.” (Bloomberg, 06.04.26)
  • Putin has not yet had an opportunity to read Zelenskyy’s letter, but would be briefed on it later, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, according to TASS. If Zelenskyy wants to meet Putin, he can come to Moscow, he said. (Bloomberg, 06.04.26)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin pushed back at prospects for European leaders to help negotiate an end to his war in Ukraine, dismissing them as mediators and pointedly insisting on a peace deal he said had been worked out with Donald Trump in Alaska. “How can the European Union or individual EU countries serve as mediators when they are directly assisting the country with which we are in an armed conflict?” Putin said at a meeting with foreign media in St. Petersburg late Thursday. “How can they be mediators? Mediation implies neutrality.” (Bloomberg, 06.04.26)
• A Western European initiative to bring Russia into peace talks with Ukraine risks increasing the pressure on Kyiv for concessions, according to Ukraine’s former top diplomat. Dmytro Kuleba, who served as foreign minister in Kyiv until 2024, said that Germany, France and the UK, known collectively as the E3, aren’t in a position to force Vladimir Putin to cede ground, so their plans could end up hindering Ukraine. “E3 has decisive leverage over Ukraine. It does not have decisive leverage over Russia,” Kuleba wrote in a June 4 post on social media. “Moscow would inevitably seek to turn E3 into a channel for Russian proposals, encouraging Europeans to persuade Kyiv to accept arrangements it would otherwise reject.” (Bloomberg, 06.04.26)

Friday, June 5, 2026

• Putin sees no point in meeting with Zelenskyy after receiving a letter from him. "I don't see the point yet," Putin said on June 5 at the plenary session of the SPIEF 2026. "We should address ourselves not to the authors of this letter, not to those who enjoy the epistolary genre, but to our soldiers on the line of combat contact. And so, addressing them, I want to say: Comrade soldiers and sailors, comrade petty officers and warrant officers, comrade officers, admirals, and generals, the entire country is looking to you, the entire country is proud of you, and hopes for you. Keep working, brothers," Putin said. (Interfax, 06.05.26)
  • "I don't see the point of meeting. The only point for the Ukrainian side is to stop the advance of our armed forces. We need agreements not for six months, not for three months, but for the long-term," Putin emphasized. According to Putin, specialists should first work and develop some solutions, "and after that, we can meet, be present at the signing of documents, or sign something." (Interfax, 06.05.26)
  • “The author [of the letter—Zelenskyy] also points out that there is no need to adhere to the agreements reached in Anchorage, and, moreover, we need to seek genuine guarantors of possible agreements between Russia and Ukraine, and they need to be sought in Europe," Putin said. He continued: "Well, perhaps reliable guarantors are always a good idea, but why the American administration and President Trump are refusing to act in this capacity is not entirely clear to me. They want to get weapons from the United States, but for some reason they don't want to see the U.S. administration and President Trump as guarantors. This raises questions." (Interfax, 06.05.26)
  • "And that letter you just mentioned truly does contain elements of rudeness. What is it? Is it a way to create conditions for a personal meeting and negotiations, or is it creating an environment in which it's impossible to hold any personal meetings at all? I think it's the latter," Putin said on June at the plenary session of the SPIEF 2026. (Interfax, 06.05.26)
  • Zelenskyy, who drew attention in his letter to the Russian president's length of office, should not be afraid to run in the elections himself, Putin said. "Zelenskyy drew attention to the length of time in office. This is an important issue, of course, but we must go to the polls, not be afraid, and always act within the framework of the fundamental law," Putin said during SPIEF on June 5. He reminded the letter's author that "if one holds power outside the framework of the Constitution, this is called usurpation of power and is a criminal offense." (Interfax, 06.05.26)
• Only Russia and Ukraine should resolve key issues between themselves; other parties, including the United States, can act as guarantors, Putin stated. "Naturally, key issues must be resolved between Russia and Ukraine, and our colleagues in the United States and other regions can only create the conditions and act as guarantors. This is our starting point," Putin said during the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on June 5. (Interfax, 06.05.26)
• The leaders of the UK, France and Germany are planning to gather over the weekend with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to discuss a path to engage Russia in negotiations to end the war. The meeting, which builds on new efforts to end more than four years of war, is currently scheduled for Sunday evening in the UK, according to people familiar with the matter who are not authorized to discuss it publicly. Zelenskyy’s plans are still subject to change and the meeting could be shifted, the people added. (Bloomberg, 06.05.26)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

Friday, May 29, 2026

• Russian drones have violated Romanian airspace at least 28 times, with fragments falling on its territory up to 47 times since 2022, but the Galati strike is the first to injure civilians in any NATO state. (ISW, 05.29.26)

Saturday, May 30, 2026

• Russia’s intelligence agencies have grown more aggressive in their efforts to steal Western technology and defense secrets as sanctions squeeze the country's wartime economy, three senior European intelligence officials told The Associated Press. (Washington Post, 05.30.26)

Monday, June 1, 2026

• Mayor of London Sadiq Khan blamed Trump supporters and the Russian state for a wave of social media posts in recent months talking down the UK capital. Speaking at tech festival SXSW London on Monday, Khan—who has been heavily criticized in the past by the U.S. President—said social media users and so-called bots linked to China, Russia and the Make America Great Again movement were responsible for posts spreading misinformation about London’s crime rates and stoking divides within communities. (Bloomberg, 06.01.26)

Wednesday, June 3, 2026

• Russia has invited far-right figures from the West such as firebrand podcaster Candace Owens and Germany’s AfD lawmakers Markus Frohnmaier and Steffen Kotré to its annual St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF). Former German chancellor Gerhard Schröder, who Putin has indicated he would like to see appointed as Europe’s envoy for talks with Russia, has also been spotted in Moscow this week, though it was unclear whether he would attend the forum. (Financial Times, 06.03.26)

Thursday, June 4, 2026

• Hungary has lifted its longtime opposition to Ukraine opening formal talks to join the European Union − offering a glimmer of hope to a country traumatized by war that sees membership as crucial to escaping the claws of Russia and securing a free, democratic future. However, Prime Minister Peter Magyar said the country would continue to oppose a fast-track accession process sought by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. (Washington Post, 06.04.26)
• The Pentagon is expected to cancel a plan to send Tomahawk missiles to Germany partly because officials are concerned Russia will view it as an escalation, a startling reversal of a long-planned agreement with one of America’s biggest allies. (Politico, 06.04.26)

Friday, June 5, 2026

• Seconds-long GPS outages across Europe on several occasions are the result of interference by Russian satellites, according to new research provided to The New York Times by scientists who specialize in GPS technology and a person familiar with a U.S. Air Force briefing on the jamming. The Times has also learned that the European Union has conducted an investigation into the incidents, though its results are classified, a spokesperson said. (New York Times, 06.05.26)
• Italy has called for the creation of a new European defense alliance to safeguard the continent amid growing threats from Russia and a rising reluctance by the United States to guarantee Europe’s security. The proposal, made by Italy’s defense minister, Guido Crosetto, calls on the European Union’s 27 members to form an alliance with 13 other like-minded European nations that are not part of the bloc, including Britain, Norway, Turkey and Ukraine. (New York Times, 06.05.26)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• No significant developments.

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• The U.S. is discussing whether to deploy nuclear weapons in additional European NATO states, in a move intended to reassure allies that reduced conventional military support does not weaken security guarantees. U.S. officials have signaled openness to additional deployments beyond the existing six countries hosting nuclear-capable bombers, three people briefed on the discussions told the FT. (Financial Times, 06.02.26)
  • Lithuania is considering hosting U.S. nuclear weapons on its territory, defense minister said, as the talks with Washington about boosting deterrence against Russian are ongoing. Robertas Kaunas told reporters that discussions on the national level are taking place should the U.S. consider such a move. The Lithuanian constitution currently prohibits hosting weapons of mass destruction on its soil. “Discussions are indeed taking place,” Kaunas told reporters in Vilnius on Wednesday. “I don’t want to go into details at this point as they are classified, but discussions are ongoing and Lithuania is certainly not standing on the sidelines.” (Bloomberg, 06.03.26)
• A Franco-German nuclear cooperation group plans its first joint exercises this autumn, Der Spiegel reports. German security adviser Günther Sautter held initial talks in Paris, with other EU states involved in a shared European nuclear deterrence project also joining. The first “Poker” maneuvers, likely in September, would see the Bundeswehr initially participate as an observer in parts of France’s nuclear drills, with access to French nuclear sites and a later possible role in non-nuclear support such as fighter escort and aerial refueling. (Ukrainska Pravda / Der Spiegel, 05.30.26)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• Russia has resupplied its Khmeimim air base in Syria for the first time since Assad’s fall, sending the sanctioned cargo ship Sparta from St. Petersburg to Tartus, where it arrived May 11 escorted in the Med by frigate Admiral Kasatonov and another navy ship. Hundreds of Russian personnel remain in Syria; Sparta is one of a small fleet used to covertly ship military cargo and circumvent Black Sea naval movement limits. (Wall Street Journal, 06.02.26)

Cyber security/AI: 

• Putin has ordered the Russian government and the FSB security service to ensure that critical online services remain accessible during mobile internet outages. (MT/AFP, 06.01.26)
• Russia’s Federal Security Service claims to have uncovered a “large-scale operation” by foreign intelligence services to plant spyware on the phones of senior Russian officials, allegedly using major IT firms’ infrastructure to extract data and conduct covert audio and video surveillance. An FSB officer said hacked material was later used to place targets on U.S. and EU sanctions lists, and warned officials not to discuss confidential matters near mobile phones. No technical details or foreign agencies were named. (Meduza, 06.02.26)

Energy exports from CIS:

Sunday, May 31, 2026

• The European Union is considering a temporary freeze to its price cap on Russian oil as the war in the Middle East continues into a fourth month, said people familiar with the matter. The bloc adopted a dynamic mechanism last year to ensure that the price cap is automatically set every six months at 15% lower than the average market rate for Russian Urals crude. The current price threshold is $44.10 per barrel and is due for review later this summer. Under the cap, European firms are banned from providing services such as insurance and transportation involving oil sold above the threshold. (Bloomberg, 05.31.26)

Monday, June 1, 2026

• Russia has imposed a temporary ban on jet fuel exports for the first time, effective until November 30, 2026, in a bid to stabilize the domestic fuel market. The restriction exempts cargo already in customs procedures, fuel for transit flights, and deliveries under intergovernmental agreements. (Meduza, 06.01.26)
• France’s navy has seized the Russian-linked tanker Tagor in the Atlantic Ocean while it was sailing from Russia, President Emmanuel Macron announced. The vessel, under U.S., EU, U.K. and Ukrainian sanctions and classified by London as part of Russia’s “shadow fleet,” is accused of carrying Russian oil in violation of sanctions; it follows a similar French detention of the tanker Deyna in March. (Meduza, 06.01.26)
• Danish yard Fayard is now the only EU shipyard still dry‑docking Arc7 ice‑class LNG tankers serving Russia’s Yamal plant, having handled 15 visits since 2022 and five Yamal‑linked tankers last year. NGO analysis suggests six of the 15‑strong Arc7 fleet are scheduled for repair there this summer, ahead of an EU ban on maritime services to Russia‑linked LNG tankers and on Russian gas imports taking effect in 2027. Despite Danish political pressure to stop, Fayard argues the EU still deems Yamal LNG “necessary” for European supply, with Yamal‑to‑EU imports up 17% to 5 million tons in Q1 2026. (Financial Times, 06.01.26) 
• Turkey and Russia are discussing an extension of natural gas supply agreements beyond 2026 as current deals expire at the end of the year. (Bloomberg, 06.01.26)

Tuesday, June 2, 2026

• Russia is exporting the most crude since its invasion of Ukraine back in 2022 as Kyiv's record attacks on its neighbor's oil refineries force more barrels into the global market. Moscow’s year-to-date shipments are running at 3.46 million barrels a day, about 120,000 barrels a day higher than 2025, and exceed the annual averages for each year since Moscow’s troops marched into Ukraine in February 2022. (Bloomberg, 06.02.26)

Wednesday, June 3, 2026

• Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries set a record in May. Ukraine carried out at least 16 strikes on Russian fuel‑producing facilities in May, with drones hitting 8 of Russia’s 10 largest refineries and at least 30 oil assets overall, the highest monthly total since the full‑scale invasion. Russian refinery runs fell to about 4.58 million barrels a day—down 700,000 b/d (13%) year‑on‑year and the lowest since October 2009—prompting Moscow to ban jet fuel exports until end‑November 2026. Russia exported only ~30,000 b/d of jet fuel in 2025 (<2% of global supply); premium 95 volumes on SPIMEX are now just one‑third of last year’s level while prices are up over 20% year‑on‑year. (Bloomberg, 06.01.26)
• Putin authorized TotalEnergies SE to sell its stake in a U.S.-sanctioned liquefied natural gas export project in the Arctic, a rare move that will allow the French major to exit a project strangled by western restrictions. (Bloomberg, 06.03.26)
• French authorities have taken into custody the Russian captain of a seized oil tanker believed to be part of Moscow's "shadow fleet," a prosecutor said June 3. The French Navy detained the Tagor on May 31 in international waters with British help after the vessel allegedly failed to comply with orders and was suspected of sailing under a false flag. It is the fourth ship that France has seized since September on suspicion of belonging to the "shadow fleet.” (MT/AFP, 06.03.26)

Thursday, June 4, 2026

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said future waivers allowing countries to purchase oil from Russia could be granted on a country-by-country basis rather than across the board. (Bloomberg, 06.04.26)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• Urenco will boost U.S. uranium enrichment capacity by up to 50% via a multibillion‑dollar expansion: its existing Eunice, New Mexico plant (4.3mn separative work units, about one‑third of U.S. demand) is adding 700,000 SWU by 2027, and a new plant will add another 2.1mn SWU from 2032. Russia currently controls almost half of global enrichment and supplies up to 20% of U.S. reactor fuel; a U.S. ban on Russian fuel imports starts in 2028. Washington has earmarked $2.7bn to strengthen the domestic nuclear fuel chain. (Financial Times, 06.02.26)
• Apple has removed Russia’s state-backed messaging app Max from its App Store and cut off push notifications for calls and messages to iPhone users. Launched in spring 2025 as a domestic alternative to WhatsApp and Telegram, Max has been heavily promoted by authorities as a secure platform and is legally mandated to come pre-installed on all smartphones and computers sold in Russia. (MT/AFP, 06.04.26)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

Wednesday, June 3, 2026

• The U.S. is sending a delegation to Russia’s annual St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) for the first time since 2018, headed up by Rodney Mims Cook Jr, chair of the U.S. Commission of Fine Arts, who is in charge of President Donald Trump’s new ballroom at the White House. British-American social media influencer Andrew Tate and his brother Tristan also arrived in Moscow on June 2, sparking rumors that they plan to attend Russia’s annual premier business conference. (Financial Times, 06.03.26; MT/AFP, 06.02.26)

Thursday, June 4, 2026

• Russia-U.S. talks on economic and energy issues continue ‌despite a pause in Ukraine peace negotiations, President Vladimir Putin's special envoy Kirill Dmitriev told Reuters on Thursday, adding he spoke to U.S. counterparts a day earlier. (Reuters, 06.04.26)
• Russia’s national postal service said June 4 that it is once again receiving regular mail and package deliveries from the United States following a suspension introduced shortly after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russian Post said deliveries from the U.S. were restored in late May, with the first batch having already arrived in Russia. The postal service said packages are being flown through other countries, though it did not name those countries or say exactly how long delivery will take. (MT/AFP, 06.04.26)
• Russian and American ice hockey players will face off in Moscow on July 1 as part of a series of matches discussed by the leaders of the two countries last year, AmCham Russia President Robert Agee said June 4. President Vladimir Putin first proposed holding hockey matches between Russian and American players in both countries during a phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump in March 2025. “We hope this will help melt the ice that formed between us,” Agee said, referring to geopolitical tensions between Washington and Moscow. (MT/AFP, 06.04.26)

Friday, June 5, 2026

• Speaking about U.S. President Donald Trump, Putin noted at SPIEF that he treats him "as a colleague" and "with respect." "As far as I can see, at least so far, the current administration's attitude toward Russia has been roughly the same. And our personal relations are built on mutual respect," the Russian president said. (Interfax, 06.05.26)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

Monday, June 1, 2026

• Senior Russian finance and central bank officials have warned Putin that war spending is unsustainable, with the Defense Ministry seeking up to 3 trillion rubles ($36 billion) more this year on top of already soaring costs. The 2026 deficit hit 5.9 trillion rubles (2.5% of GDP) in the first four months—about 50% above the full‑year plan—after a 16% year‑on‑year jump in spending and a 41% surge in state procurement. GDP growth for 2026 has been cut to 0.4%, and the National Wellbeing Fund’s liquid reserves are down roughly 60% from pre‑invasion levels. (Bloomberg, 06.01.26) 

Tuesday, June 2, 2026

• Levada Center’s May 2026 polling shows United Russia at 30% of all respondents on party lists, LDPR 10%, CPRF 9%, New People 5%, and A Just Russia 4%. Among those certain to vote and already decided, this translates to about 47% for United Russia, 16% for LDPR, 15% for CPRF, 7% for New People and 6% for A Just Russia. (Levada Center, 06.02.26)
• An Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) investigation says the family of Valery Fyodorov, longtime head of state pollster VTsIOM, holds over 500 million rubles (around $7 million) in luxury assets, including at least 24 Hermès bags worth about 53 million rubles, jewelry worth 19 million, multiple high‑end cars, and Moscow real estate valued at over 430 million rubles. FBK argues Fyodorov’s official income—roughly 14–22 million rubles annually in 2022–24—cannot explain the wealth and alleges he profits from “fraudulent contracting schemes” using VTsIOM research funds, while the agency manipulates polling to bolster perceptions of majority support for Putin. (Meduza, 06.02.26)
• Some of Russia’s wealthiest businessmen are believed to have donated around 220 billion rubles ($3 billion) to the state treasury, the business magazine Expert reported June 1, just months after a billionaire proposed the idea of “voluntary” corporate contributions to help bankroll the government’s widening budget deficit. An anonymous federal official told Expert that corporate handouts are expected to reach 300 billion rubles ($4.1 billion) by the end of the fiscal year. (MT/AFP, 06.02.26)

Wednesday, June 3, 2026

• The annual St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) opened on June 3 under a cloud of black smoke after Ukrainian drones struck a nearby oil terminal and naval hub earlier in the morning. Some 20,000 guests from 130 countries are expected to attend SPIEF, a flagship business and investment event known as the “Russian Davos,” which runs through June 6. This year’s theme, “Pragmatic Dialogue: the Path to a Stable Future,” leans heavily on Russia’s relations with the Global South and expanding technologies like artificial intelligence. Putin will deliver his annual keynote speech during the plenary session on June 5. He will be joined by the presidents of Uzbekistan and Tanzania, as well as Chinese Vice President Han Zheng and Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud. The Saudi delegation is featured as the “guest of honor.” Around 200 officials and corporate executives are representing the kingdom at SPIEF. (MT/AFP, 06.03.26)
• Russia’s next business ombudsman wants to see fewer entrepreneurs winding up in jail or pre-trial detention, arguing that imprisonment remains overused in cases of economic crimes despite years of legal reforms. Alexander Shokhin, who Putin asked to be the new business ombudsman, said law enforcement should make greater use of bail, house arrest and financial penalties for businessmen, especially in cases of pre-trial detention. (Bloomberg, 06.03.26)
• Russia issued its first gold-mining estimate in years, announcing a figure that far exceeds independent industry expectations and which, if accurate, would see it leapfrog China as the world’s top producer. The country should mine 480 to 500 tons this year, Natural Resources Minister Alexander Kozlov told the state-run Tass newswire. Yet two executives at major Russian gold miners, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said they’re skeptical about the number, which looks unexplainable. (Bloomberg, 06.03.26)
• A judge in Siberia has sentenced journalist and activist Maria Ponomarenko to another year and 10 months in prison for allegedly assaulting a prison guard, marking the third criminal conviction against her in as many years. Ponomarenko, 47, is serving two prison sentences for spreading “fake news” about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and allegedly assaulting prison guards. She denies both accusations. (MT/AFP, 06.03.26)

Thursday, June 4, 2026

• Putin’s push for what he calls Russia’s technological sovereignty is turning into a family affair with the development of key sectors entrusted to one of his daughters and the children of close allies. Katerina Tikhonova, the president’s younger daughter, and Ksenia Shoigu, whose father Sergei is secretary of Russia’s Security Council, are taking part in Putin’s flagship economic forum in St. Petersburg, where artificial intelligence, digital services and the race for rare earth metals are major topics. (Bloomberg, 06.04.26)
• Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina will not attend this year’s St. Petersburg International Economic Forum because she is on sick leave, a spokesperson for the regulator told the news outlet RBC on June 4. Nabiullina was originally scheduled to speak at two panels on cyber fraud and economic growth at Russia’s flagship business and investment event on Thursday. A source close to one of Russia’s state corporations told the business newspaper Vedomosti that Nabiullina actually skipped the forum to attend the funeral of her adviser Alexei Mozhin, who died at age 69 on June 3. (MT/AFP, 06.04.26)
• Russian officials included a leading rights group, OVD-Info, along with 35 other Russian organizations, in its list of “extremists,” Human Rights Watch said. (Human Rights Watch, 06.04.25)
• Russian spring wheat planting continues to face delays as persistent rain hinders growers, risking lower harvests. Farmers had sowed wheat on about 7.1 million hectares as of May 26, 12% below last year, according to Agriculture Ministry estimates obtained from two local traders. (Bloomberg, 06.04.26)

Friday, June 5, 2026

• "We are noting that we are seeing a decline in GDP growth and some other issues, but we are doing all of this deliberately to strengthen the foundation, the health, so to speak, of the Russian economy, and macroeconomic indicators. We are deliberately moving toward a cooling of the economy, and I want to assure you of this, we see no threats either today or in the near future," Putin said at SPIEF. (Interfax, 06.05.26)
• Putin admitted in his speech to the event often styled as “Putin’s Davos” that the country’s deficit might increase this year, but he said that “inflation has slowed down significantly, and it keeps going down.” He added that he expected inflation to be around 5.2% this year. (NBC News, 06.05.26)
• Amid all the relentlessly positive spin over Russia’s future direction at President Vladimir Putin’s flagship economic forum this week, some in the country’s political and business elite showed rare public signs of unease. They criticized growing state intervention and pressure on business in Russia’s wartime economy as well as the return of some Soviet-era practices during discussions at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. Several loyalists warned that Russia risked undermining innovation, entrepreneurship and economic growth, even as they avoided direct criticism of Putin personally. (Bloomberg, 06.05.26)
• According to a May Levada Center poll, for Russians, rising prices have remained the main problem facing Russian society for the past 20 years; in May 2026, 55% of respondents considered this problem to be acute. A third of respondents are concerned about the special operation and related problems (35%). Approximately a quarter of respondents are concerned about the threat of explosions and terrorist attacks (27%), corruption (26%), the increase in the retirement age and housing problems (24% each), and the "influx" of migrants (23%). One in five cited restricted internet access and blocking of social media (22%), the impoverishment of the majority of the population, and the inaccessibility of many types of healthcare (19% each) as the most pressing problems. (Levada Center, 06.05.26)

Defense and aerospace:

Tuesday, June 2, 2026

• Russia’s aircraft sector is on a tear, fueled by insatiable demand for thousands of drones. Output in the industry, which includes both manned military aircraft and unmanned aerial vehicles, increased 117% in April from a year earlier, Federal Statistics Service data show. That compares with an average 68% growth year-on-year in 2025, according to Bloomberg calculations. (Bloomberg, 06.02.26)

Friday, June 5, 2026

• Some of Russia's weapons, including the Oreshnik system, are not available to other countries. Russia is also developing other weapons, Putin stated. "This includes a number of other weapons that other countries don't have, such as medium-range weapons like the Oreshnik, which has been discussed at length. We are also developing other weapons," Putin said, speaking at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) on June 5. (Interfax, 06.05.26)

• A worsening air leak aboard the International Space Station ‌prompted five astronauts to take shelter and prepare for evacuation for roughly two hours on June 5 as Russia attempted to fix a crack on its portion of the orbital laboratory, NASA said. NASA ​reversed that order roughly two hours later and told the astronauts they could return to the station as the agency ⁠and its Russian counterparts examined the rate of leaking air. Roscosmos said on Friday that its experts had detected two leaks aboard the ISS but that there was no immediate threat to the crew. The first leak was quickly sealed, and preparations were underway to seal the second one, Roscosmos said, adding that there was no threat to the spacecraft's systems. (Reuters, 06.05.26)

•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• No significant developments.

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

Wednesday, June 3, 2026

• Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan began a three-day visit to Russia on June 3, meeting counterpart Vladimir Putin at a time when her country's reputation in the West has been badly damaged. Western diplomats and rights groups accused her government of massacring hundreds of people during election unrest last October and of conducting a spate of abductions and murders of critics in the run-up to the vote. (MT/AFP, 06.03.26)

Thursday, June 4, 2026

• Japanese officials who visited Moscow last week met commodity exporters along with Russian government representatives in a rare high-level commercial contact between their countries since President Vladimir Putin ordered the 2022 full scale invasion of Ukraine. The Japanese officials took part in a gathering with Russian businesses, including producers of fertilizers, palladium and aluminum and other metals, as well as suppliers of liquefied natural gas and oil, in addition to meeting their government counterparts, according to people familiar with the matter. (Bloomberg, 06.04.26)

Ukraine:

Friday, May 29, 2026

• Polish President Karol Nawrocki has threatened to strip Zelenskyy of the Order of the White Eagle, awarded in 2023, after the Ukrainian leader renamed a special forces unit in honor of the UPA, which Poland links to the WWII Volhynia massacres that killed about 100,000 ethnic Poles. A committee will decide on revocation next month. Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned the row over historical memory could benefit Russia, while Ukrainian figures accused Warsaw of “nitpicking” at a time when Ukraine is holding the largest European front since WWII. (Financial Times, 05.29.26) 

Saturday, May 30, 2026

• Leaked internal documents tie the Kremlin‑linked Social Design Agency to a viral fake claiming Zelenskyy bought his mother a $3.2 million Armani‑designed apartment in Dubai’s Burj Khalifa. An internal report estimates the disinformation could have reached up to 86 million views worldwide, including 21 million in English, with 19 “project contractors” driving more than 10 million views. The U.S. sanctioned the agency in March 2024 as a “key actor” in foreign influence operations, while the leak also links it to election meddling in Armenia and hate‑crime style stunts in Europe. (RFE/RL, 05.30.26)

Thursday, June 4, 2026

• A Kyiv court has closed a criminal case against National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) Detective Viktor Husarov, dropping treason charges and releasing him from liability over unauthorized handling of information due to the expiry of the statute of limitations. Prosecutors said Husarov admitted guilt and agreed to be freed from criminal liability on limitation grounds, which do not clear him of wrongdoing. (Kyiv Post, 06.04.26)
• Ukraine's High Anti-Corruption Court has imposed a preventive measure on a suspect accused of organizing a scheme to embezzle nearly UAH 170 million from Energoatom during the construction of a critical infrastructure facility in the Mykolaiv region—the Tashlyk Pumped Storage Power Plant. (Ukrinform, 06.04.26)
• When in 2023 the company “DS Prom Group,” linked to the MP Bort, was added to the AMCU “black list” for anti-competitive practices, it should have been barred from tenders. However… another company connected to the MP—PrJSC “Road Repair and Construction Directorate No. 82”—has since received roughly 300 million hryvnias in state funds. The firm openly states that it now rents an office, material and technical facilities, and specialized equipment from “DS Prom Group” to carry out its work. (Antikor, 06.04.26)

Friday, June 5, 2026

• Five episodes involving a group from Kremenchuk, suspected of illegally extracting servicemen from units and training centers for money, have been recorded in three regions. According to the investigation, since September 2025 five residents of Kremenchuk (four men and one woman) helped servicemen leave their duty stations for a fee of $3,000–7,000 and transported them to pre-arranged hiding places. The incidents were documented in Zhytomyr, Donetsk and Rivne regions. (Antikor, 06.05.26)
• The head of the Restoration Service of Zakarpattia region signed certificates of completed works for the construction of underground protection for a local substation. According to Prosecutor General Kravchenko, Zakarpattia official Yuriy Maksymenko signed certificates with prices for bored piles inflated fivefold (these piles are needed for foundation construction). At the same time, his Restoration Service knew that cheaper piles were available on the market and that relevant commercial offers existed. But the official did not negotiate with the suppliers—he simply signed. (Antikor, 06.05.26)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

Saturday, May 30, 2026

• Russia has recalled its ambassador to Armenia “for consultations” over Yerevan’s EU tilt, a day after Putin warned at a Kazakhstan summit that Armenia must choose between the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union, saying it is “impossible to reconcile the two.” Moscow accused Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s government of “undermining cooperation” in the EAEU and demanded an economic‑future referendum “as soon as possible,” escalating pressure as Armenia prepares for June 7 parliamentary elections. (The Moscow Times, 05.30.26)

Monday, June 1, 2026

• Russia on Monday summoned Lithuania's charge d'affaires in Moscow to condemn what it called the "barbaric" exhumation of the bodies of Soviet soldiers buried in the Baltic country as a "desecration" of military graves. (MT/AFP, 06.01.26)
• Russia will suspend seafood imports from all but two of Armenia’s processing plants, the country’s agricultural safety watchdog said Monday, adding to a growing list of food and beverage restrictions as Yerevan pursues ties with the European Union. (MT/AFP, 06.01.26)
• Putin sent birthday congratulations to Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, saying Russia seeks the “further progressive development” of traditionally “friendly” bilateral ties, even as Moscow tightens pressure on Yerevan over its EU tilt. In recent days Russia and three other EAEU states have demanded Armenia hold a referendum on choosing between the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union, restricted imports of Armenian goods, and recalled the Russian ambassador for consultations. (Meduza, 06.01.26)

Tuesday, June 2, 2026

• Ahead of Armenia’s June 7 elections, Moscow has sharply escalated pressure on Yerevan over its pro‑EU tilt. Russia has banned a wide range of Armenian exports (from fruit and vegetables to cognac, wine and Jermuk water), threatened to cut gas, fuel and diamond supplies, joined with Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan in demanding a referendum on choosing between the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union, recalled its ambassador, and warned that adopting EU standards would lead Russia to “wind down” economic integration and require work permits for Armenians. At the same time, Putin has publicly sent Pashinyan birthday greetings and stressed “friendly” ties. (Meduza, 06.02.26)
• Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has rejected a joint demand from Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan to hold a referendum forcing a choice between remaining in the Eurasian Economic Union and pursuing EU membership. He said such a vote would be “illogical” and purely theoretical until Armenia formally applies for EU membership or nears candidate status, and pledged to continue working “calmly” within the EAEU “as long as the choice…does not become unavoidable,” stressing that any eventual decision belongs to the Armenian people. (Meduza, 06.02.26) 

Wednesday, June 3, 2026

• Russia has restricted sales or imports of Armenian produce, flowers, mineral water and alcoholic products over the past month, ramping up economic pressure on the South Caucasus country as it pursues closer European integration. Putin has invoked what he called the “Ukrainian scenario” to warn Armenia against pursuing closer ties with the EU, and said it is “impossible” to be in both the EU and the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union. (MT/AFP, 06.03.26)

Friday, June 5, 2026

• Russia has unleashed what researchers are calling an unusually intense barrage of overt and covert influence operations before a parliamentary election on June 7 in Armenia, which has sought closer ties with Europe and the United States. (New York Times, 06.05.26)

IV. Quotable and notable

• Valerii Zaluzhnyi, former commander in chief of Ukraine’s armed forces and current ambassador to the U.K.: “[Russia] has created an unprecedented existential threat not only to the state sovereignty of Ukraine, but also to the survival of Ukrainians as a nation… Under such conditions, the search for alliances and long-term unions in regional and global security is a priority task for the state, as a condition not only for survival, but also for long-term peace. Everything else is simply impossible due to the technical and political unpreparedness of the old world, as well as the impossibility of Ukraine's survival in it.” (Interfax.ua, 05.30.26)
• “Russia is not just attacking Ukraine… it is attacking Ukraine’s right to exist. If the free world lets this aggression succeed, we all will face the consequences,” Zaluzhnyi said. (repost by @WW3finalboss X Account, 06.02.26)
• “Putin is the trendsetter," said Fiona Hill, a Russia specialist [member of the Harvard Board of Overseers,] and adviser to U.S. presidents. "He has shaped the image of the first populist president, the first acclaimed strongman of the 21st Century." (BBC, 05.30.26)

Endnotes

1. Sources: New York Times, 06.02.26; Meduza, 06.02.26; Wall Street Journal, 06.02.26; Washington Post, 06.02.26; Bloomberg, 06.02.26; Financial Times, 06.02.26.
2. As of May 5, 2026, the total area “temporarily occupied” was 45,115 square miles (116,848 square kilometers), according to DeepState. As of June 2, 2026, the total area “temporarily occupied” was 45,118 square miles (116,856 square kilometers), according to DeepState.
3. The Economist estimated on June 2, 2026, that over the past 30 days, Ukrainian forces have recaptured roughly 97 square miles (250 square kilometers). 
4. As of May 5, 2026, the total area “temporarily occupied” was 45,115 square miles (116,848 square kilometers), according to DeepState. As of June 2, 2026, the total area “temporarily occupied” was 45,118 square miles (116,856 square kilometers), according to DeepState.
5. The Economist estimated on June 2, 2026, that over the past 30 days, Ukrainian forces have recaptured roughly 97 square miles (250 square kilometers). 
6. DeepState reported in the daily updates to its map during that same period of May 26–June 2, 2026, that Russian armed forces advanced near or in seven Ukrainian settlements and occupied one settlement, while Ukrainian forces liberated one settlement and were clearing Russian forces near six other settlements: on May 26, Russian armed forces advanced near Minkivka; on May 27, Russian armed forces occupied Berestok and advanced near the town; on May 28, Ukrainian forces liberated the area near Novoselivka and were clearing Russian forces near Voronne, Sichneve, Piddubne, Tovste, Novokhatske and Zelenyi Hai; on May 29, there were no updates; on May 30, Russian armed forces advanced near Tsehelne; on May 31, Russian armed forces advanced near Pokrovsk and Zelene; on June 1, Russian armed forces advanced near Illinivka; on June 2, Russian armed forces advanced near Pryvillia.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

AI was used in production of this digest.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo: Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a plenary session at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg, Russia, on Friday, June 5, 2026. (AP Photo/Dmitri Lovetsky)