4 Things to Know

1. On April 15–16 Russian forces carried out what media described as Russia’s largest and deadliest air attack on Ukraine this year, firing 44 missiles (including 24 ballistic missiles from Iskander systems which Ukraine lacks Patriot interceptors for) and 659 attack drones. Russia is intensifying ballistic missile strikes as it prepares a new ground offensive in southeast Ukraine,¹ Ukrainian military intelligence told FT. Deputy chief of the Ukrainian MoD’s intelligence directorate Vadym Skibitskyi told this newspaper that the objective of this offensive is to capture all of Donbas by September. Moscow is drawing 20,000 troops from strategic reserves, bringing its force in Ukraine to roughly 680,000 soldiers, while also producing about 60 Iskander missiles a month, according to Skibitskyi.
2. RM’s most recent analysis of ISW data for the past four weeks (March 17–April 14, 2026) indicates that Russian forces lost 1 square mile of Ukraine’s territory during that period, according to the April 14 issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In contrast, Russia lost 33 square miles during the prior four-week period (Feb. 17–March 17, 2026).
3. Ukraine is increasingly relying on unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) to survive Russian drone “kill zones,”according to FP. These vehicles, often under $20,000, now handle up to “80%” of logistics in some units and have run more than 7,000 missions a month, from resupply and medevac to armed assaults, FP reported, citing Ukrainian commanders. Ukraine’s increasing reliance on UGVs is reflected in Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s claim this week that Ukrainian forces have, for the first time, captured a Russian position “exclusively by unmanned platforms—ground systems and drones,” according to MT. However, this claim cannot be verified, and experts told MT that Zelenskyy’s statement was mainly a PR move. Moreover, despite Ukraine’s cutting edge-use of drones and robots, Ukrainian commanders say manpower remains the decisive factor as the war enters its fifth year, with the armed forces at roughly 900,000 personnel and up to 150,000 troops possibly missing from units amid war fatigue, distrust and Russian disinformation, FP reported.
4. The IMF became the first major body to revise upward its projection for Russia’s economic growth in 2026 following the Iran war–related surge in oil prices, lifting its forecast from 0.8% to 1.1% and citing “favorable oil and gas market conditions,” bne Intellinews reported on April 15. These conditions appeared to change towards the end of this week, however, after Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi announced on April 17 that the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open” for the duration of the ceasefire while Donald Trump said that with this key passage reopened, the process of clinching a final peace deal with Iran would “go very quickly.” Even though the ceasefire is still formally set to expire on April 22, these announcements still sent global oil prices sliding down by 11%, according to MT.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Despite most scientific ties with Russia being severed since 2022, Russian and Western scientists still cooperate at the ITER fusion project in France, where “people leave their passports behind once they enter the facility,” director‑general Pietro Barabaschi told The Economist. Russia supplies magnet parts, exhaust systems and neutron‑absorbing panels; while no contribution is “indispensable,” losing them causes delays in a project already transformed into a “boondoggle,” with full operation pushed to 2039 and costs swollen to $32.4 billion, even as private fusion firms race ahead. (The Economist, 04.13.26)
• The U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration says Armenia is now free of highly radioactive material after the joint removal of its last cobalt‑60 source from the Fanaryan National Center of Oncology in Yerevan. The operation, jointly funded by NNSA and Armenian authorities, replaced the medical irradiator with linear accelerators and capped a long‑running partnership in which eight high‑activity sources were removed, eliminating “dirty bomb” risks and strengthening global radiological security. (NNSA, 04.15.26)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• As Moscow deepens ties with Pyongyang, the Kremlin is using art, tourism, food and academia to foster “warm feelings for North Korea,” Valerie Hopkins and Nanna Heitmann report. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov praised the new Wonsan resort as “a wonderful resort… The sea is magnificent, and the facilities are superb,” while polling shows Russians who see North Korea as a close ally jumped from 3% in 2021 to almost a third by 2025. (New York Times, 04.11.26)

Iran and its nuclear program:

Saturday, April 11, 2026

• Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian spoke with Vladimir Putin about “the latest regional developments,” blaming stalled talks on U.S. “unilateralism” and saying Iran was ready for a lasting peace deal, Iranian state media reported. According to TASS, Pezeshkian briefed Putin on U.S.–Iran negotiations in Pakistan, and Putin pledged Russia’s readiness to “continue facilitating” a political and diplomatic solution and to offer mediation for a “just and lasting peace in the Middle East.” (Wall Street Journal, 04.12.26)

Monday, April 13, 2026

• The Trump administration is negotiating an Iran deal centered on a 20‑year “suspension” of all Iranian nuclear activity, rather than a permanent enrichment ban, the New York Times reports. Tehran has countered with an offer of up to five years, and is resisting U.S. demands to remove about 970 pounds of near‑bomb‑grade uranium from Iran, instead proposing to dilute it on site. The talks aim to buy time—again—while leaving Iran’s long‑term nuclear capability unresolved. (New York Times, 04.13.26)
• Russia stands ready to take in Iran's highly enriched uranium as part of a future peace deal with the United States, the Kremlin said on Monday. “The offer still stands, but has not been acted upon," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Monday. He also criticized Trump's threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway that has been effectively closed since the U.S. and Israel began striking Iran in late February. (MT/AFP, 04.13.26)
• Russia has begun the final phase of evacuating its personnel from Iran’s Bushehr nuclear-power plant, with 108 employees leaving Monday and only about 20 “engineering and technical staff responsible for the safety of equipment” remaining, Rosatom chief Alexey Likhachev told TASS, according to the Wall Street Journal. Before the U.S.–Israeli war with Iran, around 700 Russian specialists worked at the Russian‑built facility in southern Iran. (Wall Street Journal, 04.13.26)

Tuesday, April 14, 2026

• The IMF warns the U.S. war in Iran has “abruptly darkened” the global outlook, cutting its 2026 growth forecast to 3.1% from a pre‑war 3.4% and cautioning that extended energy disruptions could push growth down to 2% and inflation up to 6%. Oil is already above $100 a barrel and gas up more than 80%; the fund says the damage is done even if the war is short‑lived, with poorer countries hit hardest and Russia emerging as a relative “winner” thanks to higher prices and eased sanctions on some oil sales. (New York Times, 04.14.26)
• Russia has imposed new restrictions on helium exports until the end of 2027 amid a global shortage triggered by the war in Iran. As the world’s third‑largest helium producer, Moscow will now require Industry and Trade Ministry oversight and direct approval from Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin or deputies for shipments outside the Eurasian Economic Union, a move officials say is meant to prioritize domestic industrial needs. (The Moscow Times, 04.14.26)

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

• President Donald Trump suggested peace talks with Iran could resume in a day or two as the U.S. military chokes off the country's maritime trade in a move to get Tehran to the negotiating table. Trump ordered a naval blockade targeting vessels headed to or from Iranian ports after U.S.-Iranian peace talks in Islamabad on April 11–12 failed to produce an agreement to end the war, which began with U.S. and Israeli air strikes on Iran on February 28. In an interview with Fox Business News that aired on April 15, Trump said he thinks the war could be over "very soon," while Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqaei told a weekly press briefing in Tehran that since the talks ended, Iran has been exchanging messages with the United States via Pakistan. (RFE/RL, 04.15.26)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated that Russia is “ready to play a role” in resolving Iran’s enriched‑uranium issue, saying Moscow could again process highly enriched uranium into fuel grade or take some material for storage “without violating” Tehran’s right to peaceful enrichment, and lamented that the U.S. “ruined” the 2015 JCPOA in 2019 but expressed hope that “something similar” can be rebuilt. (TASS, 04.15.26)
• Leaked Iranian military documents show Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps secretly acquired control of a Chinese-built spy satellite, TEE‑01B, in late 2024 and used it to target U.S. bases during the March war, the Financial Times reports. Tasking logs and imagery indicate the satellite—operated via Chinese firm Emposat’s global ground network—was used to surveil Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia and other U.S. sites, giving Iran roughly half‑meter‑resolution imagery far beyond its domestic capabilities. (Financial Times, 04.15.26)

Friday, April 17, 2026

• Iran’s foreign minister said the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open” to commercial shipping for the duration of the ceasefire in Lebanon. The Brent crude international oil benchmark dropped 13% to below $90 per barrel after Abbas Araghchi’s statement. U.S. stocks rose 1.3%. Donald Trump earlier on Friday said that peace talks would “probably” resume this weekend. (Financial Times, 04.17.26)
  • President Donald Trump claimed Iran has made “key concessions” in negotiations to end the seven‑week war and said the April 7 U.S.–Iran truce may not need renewal when it expires next week, even as Gulf and European leaders expect a six‑month process to a final accord and want an extended ceasefire to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg reports. A 10‑day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, announced by Trump and confirmed by Benjamin Netanyahu, has bolstered hopes for a broader deal, though comments from both Washington and Tehran suggest major gaps remain, especially over Iran’s nuclear program and Hormuz. (Bloomberg, 04.17.26)
  • President Donald Trump told Axios that U.S. and Iranian negotiators will “probably meet this weekend” in Islamabad to try to finalize a peace deal, but vowed he will not lift the U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz “until a deal is reached,” stressing he wants the waterway “open for everybody.” (Axios, 04.17.26)
• Axios reports the U.S. and Iran are negotiating a three‑page memorandum that could swap roughly $20 billion in frozen Iranian assets for Tehran’s relinquishing or down‑blending its stockpile of nearly 2,000 kg of enriched uranium, including 450 kg at 60% purity. A compromise under discussion would see some highly enriched material shipped to a third country and the rest diluted under international monitoring, alongside a “voluntary” enrichment moratorium of 5–20 years and a requirement that future facilities be above ground. Trump says talks, mediated by Pakistan with help from Egypt and Turkey, are “very close” to a deal. (Axios, 04.17.26)
• Russian stocks fell after Iran’s foreign minister declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open” for the duration of the ceasefire, with the MOEX index down 0.7% and the oil-and-gas subindex off 2.7%, The Moscow Times reports. Rosneft shares dropped more than 4%, Gazprom Neft nearly 3%, and Lukoil and Tatneft over 2% as Brent crude slid to about $88 a barrel, erasing part of the war‑driven price spike that had helped push Russia’s March oil export revenues to $19 billion. (The Moscow Times, FT, 04.17.26)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Russia and Ukraine conducted a new prisoner swap on April 11, with each side returning “175 military personnel” and seven civilians, Russia’s Defense Ministry said, adding that seven Kursk region residents who ended up in Ukraine during the Ukrainian incursion also came home. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that “seven civilians” held in Russia were among those released and noted the exchange followed the March “500 for 500” swap. (Meduza, 04.11.26)
• Russian forces “committed a war crime in Kharkiv Oblast,” ISW says, citing Ukrainian prosecutors who published footage and reported that Russian troops executed four unarmed Ukrainian POWs on April 11 after seizing positions near Veterynarne and after the 16:00 ceasefire start. (ISW, 04.12.26)
• Denmark has effectively “adopted” the southern Ukrainian city of Mykolaiv, directing about 60% of its Ukraine reconstruction aid—more than $250 million—into local projects ranging from water infrastructure and solar‑powered pumping stations to school bomb shelters, demining, and small‑business support, the New York Times reports. The city’s population has rebounded close to prewar levels. (New York Times, 04.14.26)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• Citing Ukrainian and Russian daily data, ABC News reported that in March 2026 Ukraine for the first time launched more cross‑border attack drones than Russia, with Moscow claiming it downed 7,347 Ukrainian drones while Kyiv said it faced 6,462 Russian drones and 138 missiles, intercepting about 90% of drones. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine’s drones and missiles sector alone will reach “$35 billion next year.” Analyst Clément Molin noted Ukraine launched “at least 283 drones” at Russia in one night. (ABC News, 04.06.26; X, 04.06.26)
• RM’s most recent analysis of ISW data for the past four weeks (March 17–April 14, 2026) indicates that Russian forces lost 1 square mile of Ukraine’s territory during that period. according to the April 14 issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. During the prior four-week period (Feb. 17–March 17, 2026), Russia lost 33 square miles. Additionally, according to ISW data, during the past week (April 7–14, 2026), Russia lost 13 square miles, an increase from the previous week’s (March 31–April 7, 2026) loss of 1 square mile. According to updates posted by the Ukrainian OSINT group DeepState, Russian forces made advances from April 7 to April 14 in or near 14 settlements and occupied one settlement.² (RM, 04.15.26)

Friday, April 10, 2026

• On Friday, April 10, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Riznykivka. (RM, 04.17.26)
• Russian commanders are reportedly dipping into strategic reserves to reinforce the Oleksandrivka, Hulyaipole and Zaporizhzhia axes, but ISW notes these forces are being deployed “far from [Russia’s] main operational objective” in Donetsk and have not produced “tactically significant gains.” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia has likely begun committing reserves while still taking high casualties and set an unmet deadline to seize Druzhkivka and Kostyantynivka by end‑April, part of Ukraine’s “Fortress Belt.” (ISW, 04.10.26)

Saturday, April 11, 2026

• On Saturday, April 11, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian forces advanced near Vetarynarne, Petropavlivka and Ivanopillia. (RM, 04.17.26)

Sunday, April 12, 2026

• On Sunday, April 12, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported that the Russian forces occupied Myrne. (RM, 04.17.26)
• Vladimir Putin’s promised Orthodox Easter cease-fire saw Russia carry out 28 infantry assaults, 479 artillery barrages and 1,792 explosive‑drone strikes by Sunday morning while avoiding long‑range strikes, Ukraine’s military said. Moscow insisted it had observed the truce and blamed Kyiv—which had vowed to mirror Russian actions—for violations, as Trump‑backed peace talks drift with no breakthrough in sight. (Wall Street Journal, 04.13.26)
  • ISW reports that both Russia and Ukraine accused each other of mass violations of Russia’s unilateral Orthodox Easter ceasefire on April 11–12. Ukraine’s General Staff said Russian forces violated it 2,299 times by 7:00 a.m. April 12, including 28 ground assaults, 479 artillery strikes and over 1,500 Lancet, Molniya and other FPV drone strikes, while Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed 1,971 Ukrainian violations, mostly FPV drone and artillery attacks. (ISW, 04.12.26)

Monday, April 13, 2026

• On Monday, April 13, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces the Russian forces advanced near Myropilske, Maryine and Novodmytrivka. (RM, 04.17.26)
• Ukraine is increasingly relying on unmanned ground vehicles to survive Russian drone “kill zones,” with an Azov Brigade commander saying “it’s hopeless to take an armored vehicle and just send it to evacuate any infantry positions. You will be engaged… 100%.” UGVs, often under $20,000, now handle up to “80%” of logistics in some units and have run more than 7,000 missions a month, from resupply and medevac to armed assaults. (Foreign Policy, 04.13.26)
• Ukraine said its drones struck the Apatit JSC fertilizer plant in Russia’s Vologda region, targeting a facility that “produces raw materials for TNT and other components for ammunition,” according to drone unit commander Robert “Madyar” Brovdi. Bloomberg notes the claim couldn’t be independently verified and PhosAgro, Apatit’s owner, declined comment. Kyiv has increasingly hit fertilizer plants, refineries and other oil infrastructure to cut into Russia’s export revenues amid war‑driven price spikes. (Bloomberg, 04.13.26)
  • In March alone, Ukrainian strikes hit six Russian refineries and forced four fuel‑producing plants, including export‑oriented Kirishi, to halt throughput, while repeated drone attacks on the Baltic ports of Ust‑Luga and Primorsk and the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk disrupted crude exports. (Bloomberg, 04.13.26)

Tuesday, April 14, 2026

• On Tuesday, April 14, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces captured. (RM, 04.17.26)
• A Russian missile strike on the city of Dnipro killed five civilians and wounded 22, 12 of them seriously, according to regional head Oleksandr Ganzha. Ukraine’s State Emergency Service said an “infrastructure facility” was hit, but photos and video from the scene show a store and café heavily damaged along with several private cars; Russia’s military has not commented. (Meduza, 04.14.26; RFE/RL, 04.14.26)
• Ukrainian drones killed one woman and injured at least five people in Russia’s Lipetsk region and struck a fuel facility in Krasnodar as Kyiv continued long‑range attacks on Russian territory. Lipetsk Governor Igor Artamonov said drones hit the city of Yelets, where windows were blown out in multiple residential buildings and four people were hospitalized, while debris from a downed drone ignited a house fire in the village of Dolgorukovo without causing casualties. Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed air defenses intercepted 97 Ukrainian drones overnight across several regions, Crimea and the Sea of Azov. Separately, Ukraine’s General Staff said its forces hit the Krymskaya fuel‑pumping station in Krasnodar region. (Meduza, 04.14.26; Bloomberg, 04.11.26; MT/AFP, 04.14.26)
• President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukrainian forces have, for the first time, captured a Russian position “exclusively by unmanned platforms—ground systems and drones,” with some Russian troops reportedly surrendering and “no losses on our side.” Analysts told The Moscow Times the seizure was likely a small, secondary position but reflects how Ukraine’s drones and UGVs, which have conducted more than 22,000 missions in three months, are “already transforming both tactics and strategy” on the battlefield. Experts told The Moscow Times that Zelensky’s statement was mainly a PR mov (MT, 04.14.26)
• Retired U.S. Gen. David Petraeus argues that U.S. success against Iran risks distracting Washington from the harder lessons of Ukraine, where “industrial‑scale warfare” is shaped by unmanned systems, AI, and mass precision. Unlike the relatively “permissive” Gulf environment, Ukraine shows what happens when an adversary contests every domain: millions of drones produced annually, weekly software updates, rapid tactical adaptation and constant jamming. He says the U.S. must shift from “small numbers of exquisite systems” toward cheap mass, faster acquisition, and resilient autonomous platforms capable of operating in denied environments, warning that future conflicts will look far more like Ukraine than Iran. (Wall Street Journal, 04.16.26)

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

• On Wednesday, April 15, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces captured. (RM, 04.17.26)
  • Ukrainian commander‑in‑chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said March 2026 was a month of “intensive combat” in which Ukrainian forces restored control over nearly 50 square kilometers of previously occupied territory while holding off Russian offensives along roughly 1,200 km of front, with heaviest fighting near Oleksandrivka, Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka and Lyman. He said Deep Strike long‑range operations hit 76 targets inside Russia in March, including 15 oil‑refining facilities, as Ukraine seeks to “seize strategic initiative” through active defense and deep rear strikes. (RBC.ua, 04.15.26)
• Ukrainian monitoring group DeepState reports that Russian forces are massing infantry, armor, and tube artillery south of Myrnohrad, an area Ukrainian drone pilots “cannot reach,” and using those reserves to intensify pressure on the city’s northern outskirts and wider agglomeration. The group says Russia now controls a drone “kill zone” within 20 km of Myrnohrad’s center, striking “everything that moves,” while also advancing from Pokrovsk toward Hryshyne, which is “almost fully occupied,” and increasing infiltration near Novooleksandrivka and Vasylivka. (DeepState, 04.15.26)
• Russian forces launched one of their largest air assaults of the war overnight April 14–15, firing three Iskander‑M ballistic missiles and at least 324 attack drones (Shahed, Italmas and other types) from multiple directions—Kursk, Oryol, Rostov, Krasnodar and occupied Crimea—against targets across Ukraine. Ukraine’s Air Force reported shooting down 309 drones (about a 95% interception rate), but missiles and 13 drones still hit nine locations including Dnipro, Cherkasy, Kharkiv, Kryvyi Rih, Chernihiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Slovyansk, where a 1.5‑ton bomb destroyed a historic children’s sports facility and damaged nearly 40 apartment blocks and 15 cars; at least seven people were killed—two in Zaporizhzhia—and almost two dozen injured, while residential, port and industrial infrastructure suffered significant damage. Kyiv also struck inside Russia, with a drone attack in Bashkortostan igniting a fire at a petrochemical plant in Sterlitamak. In addition, a Russian drone hit a nine‑story apartment building in Odesa region, killing one person and wounding six, including three hospitalized, after damaging three apartments and starting a fire. (ISW, 04.15.26, RFE/RL, 04.15.26; Meduza, 04.16.26)
• Ukrainian drones struck the industrial city of Sterlitamak in Russia’s republic of Bashkortostan, more than 1,500 km from the front line, regional head Radiy Khabirov said. Several drones were downed over an industrial zone and debris sparked a fire; independent outlet Astra, using witness photos, identified the target as the Sterlitamak petrochemical plant, which makes fuel components including aviation gasoline and other additives. (Meduza, 04.15.26)
• The Trump administration has told Congress that Cuba is “complicit” in Russia’s war on Ukraine, estimating that 1,000–5,000 Cuban nationals are fighting for Moscow at any given time and that Havana has “knowingly tolerated, enabled, or selectively facilitated the flow,” Axios reports. The State Department says Cuba also provides “diplomatic and political support” to Russia, as Washington tightens an oil blockade and openly seeks to force President Miguel Díaz‑Canel from power. (Axios, 04.15.26)
• A court in Irkutsk sentenced programmer Vadim Nekrashchuk to 13 years in a high‑security penal colony for treason, after accusing him of sending photos and geolocation of a military checkpoint to a suspected Ukrainian intelligence contact. He told the court that during months under FSB “protection” in a safe house, held in total isolation, about 150,000 rubles in crypto were stolen from his wallet while only FSB officers had access to his devices; military prosecutors acknowledged the theft but refused to open a case. (Meduza, 04.15.26)

Thursday, April 16, 2026

• On Thursday, April 16, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Novodmytrivka and Stepok. (RM, 04.17.26)
  • The DeepState monitoring project reports that Russian forces have advanced near the villages of Novodmytrivka and Stepok in Sumy region, expanding a buffer zone along the Russian‑Ukrainian border. Analysts earlier estimated that newly established Russian control and infiltration areas—red and gray zones—now cover roughly 150 square kilometers in Sumy, as Moscow steps up activity around border settlements. (Ukrainska Pravda, 04.16.26)
• Russia launched its largest and deadliest air attack on Ukraine this year overnight April 15–16, firing 44 missiles (including 19 Iskander‑M/S‑400 ballistic, 20 Kh‑101 cruise and 5 Iskander‑K) and 659 Shahed, Geran, Italmas and other attack drones. Ukraine’s Air Force said it shot down or suppressed 667 targets—19 Kh‑101s, 8 Iskander‑M/S‑400s, 4 Iskander‑Ks and 636 drones—but 12 missiles and 20 drones still hit 26 locations (with debris on 25 more), killing at least 18 people and injuring more than 100 in Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv; victims included a 12‑year‑old boy, and critical power infrastructure was hit in at least nine regions. (Financial Times, 04.16.26; Wall Street Journal, 04.16.26; New York Times, 04.16.26; Bloomberg, 04.16.26; RBC.ua, 04.16.26; RFE/RL, 04.16.26)
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukrainian air defenses shot down all Russian cruise missiles in the latest mass attack, with F-16s playing a key role, and that 90% of airborne targets are now being intercepted. He warned the “only problem” is a shortage of ballistic-missile interceptors and said he raised the issue with the Dutch prime minister. (RBC.ua, 04.17.26)
  • Asked about Russia’s overnight missile and drone barrage on Kyiv, U.S. President Donald Trump said simply, “I think it’s terrible.” (Clash Report, 04.17.26)
• Ukrainian military intelligence warns Russia is intensifying ballistic missile strikes and preparing a new ground offensive in southeast Ukraine. Deputy GUR chief Vadym Skibitskyi told the Financial Times that Moscow is producing about 60 Iskander missiles a month, has expanded launcher capacity, and is drawing 20,000 troops from strategic reserves, bringing its force in Ukraine to roughly 680,000 soldiers. Russia’s objective, he said, is to capture all of Donbas by September. With too few Patriot and other high‑end systems to cover the country, Ukraine’s energy and other critical infrastructure remain “highly vulnerable” to renewed strikes. (Financial Times, 04.16.26)
• Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ihnat said Russia is using a new tactic, sending an initial wave of drones as “combat reconnaissance,” followed by cruise‑missile salvos and then a second wave of ballistic missiles designed to overwhelm air defenses that have high interception rates against drones and cruise missiles but struggle against ballistic targets. ISW says Moscow likely stockpiled weapons during its own Easter “ceasefire” to mount two large strike series within 48 hours and is exploiting a global shortage of Patriot interceptors, underscoring Ukraine’s urgent need for more Patriots and a broader air‑defense umbrella. (ISW, 04.16.26)
• Two children aged 5 and 14 were killed and two adults injured in a Ukrainian drone strike on Tuapse in Russia’s Krasnodar region, Governor Veniamin Kondratyev said. Debris damaged six residential buildings and fell on industrial facilities near the seaport; independent outlet Astra reported a fire at the Tuapse oil refinery, while Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed air defenses downed 207 Ukrainian drones overnight over multiple regions, occupied Crimea and the Black and Azov seas. (Meduza, 04.16.26)
• Russia’s Leningrad Region governor Alexander Drozdenko told the regional assembly that air defenses shot down 243 Ukrainian drones in the first three months of 2026, saying the region has become “a frontline one” with the longest border to “unfriendly NATO” states. He said strikes targeted economic and port infrastructure and were meant to “sow panic,” and brushed off complaints about repeated mobile‑internet outages by asking residents what they had “done for victory so that stable internet can exist.” (Meduza, 04.16.26)
• Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation says the Kremlin is considering three main scenarios for the war: continuing full-scale combat at least until 2028 (which would require a new mobilization); a gradual “drift” toward a ceasefire and frozen conflict framed by propaganda that Putin was “badly informed” and misled by generals; and a continued war on Ukraine combined with hybrid aggression against NATO by around 2028, including drone strikes and 20‑man sabotage groups in the Baltic states and information campaigns about “NATO war factories” allegedly threatening Russia. (Korrespondent.net, 04.16.26)
• Ukraine’s Defense Ministry says it is rolling out a new “drone‑assault” model that tightly integrates air and ground unmanned systems with infantry into a single mechanism, allowing forces to “significantly more effectively” liberate territory in the south since February 2026 while minimizing personnel losses and improving strike accuracy. The shift is backed by faster procurement and record drone contracts for Mavic, Autel and Matrice systems, plus diversified UAV and ammunition sourcing and AI-based solutions. (RBC.ua, 04.16.26)
• Ukraine’s army is undergoing a deep transformation as new formations like the 40,000-strong Khartiia Corps, the 3rd Army and Azov Corps break with Soviet-style command in favor of decentralized leadership, Western planning methods (TLPs, After Action Reviews) and intensive use of drones and ground robots. Khartiia, founded as a 30‑man volunteer unit by agribusiness tycoon Vsevolod Kozhemyako, now runs its own HR, branding and tech‑heavy operations; its commanders estimate that together with 3rd Army Corps they field around 80,000 of an estimated 300,000 troops at the front, enough to push broader reforms if senior command embraces their model. (AP/Washington Post, 04.16.26)
  • Despite Ukraine’s cutting‑edge use of drones and robots, commanders say manpower remains the decisive factor, with the armed forces at roughly 900,000 personnel and up to 150,000 troops possibly missing from units amid war fatigue, distrust and Russian disinformation. Recruiters warn that unclear terms of service, ad hoc conscription practices, and myths amplified on Telegram are undermining motivation, and argue that Europe should rebuild forces in peacetime with transparent contracts, clear benefits, and career paths so “willing recruits make better soldiers” when war comes. (Foreign Policy, 04.16.26)
• Michael Kofman, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Russia suffered 30,000 to 35,000 dead and seriously wounded in March. (Washington Post, 04.16.26)

Friday, April 17, 2026

• On Friday, April 17, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Rodynske and Chervonyi Lyman. [ATI1] (RM, 04.17.26)
• Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha warned that Russian intelligence indicates plans for up to seven “massive attacks” on Ukraine each month, with each strike package involving “at least 400 drones in combination with at least 20 missiles.” That would mean one major barrage roughly every four days, compared with every 8–10 days previously, as Moscow shifts toward larger, more frequent mixed drone‑missile salvos. (RBC.ua, 04.17.26)
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Belarus is building new roads and artillery positions along Ukraine’s northern border, warning that “Russia will once again attempt to drag Belarus into its war.” Belarus served as a key staging ground for the 2022 invasion, enabling troop movements and missile and drone strikes on Kyiv, though Minsk’s own forces have so far stayed out of direct combat. (Kyiv Independent, 04.17.26)
• A Ukrainian drone strike on the village of Yasnye Zori in Russia’s Belgorod region killed a motorcyclist when the UAV “deliberately targeted a motorcycle,” Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said. The Defense Ministry claimed air defenses downed 62 Ukrainian drones overnight over Crimea and Russian regions including Belgorod; local outlet Fonar estimates 147 civilians were killed in Belgorod region in 2025, bringing total civilian deaths there since the invasion began to 429 by January 2026. (The Moscow Times, 04.17.26)
• Firefighting teams have spent more than 24 hours battling a blaze at Russia’s Tuapse marine terminal after a major Ukrainian drone attack, with 177 personnel and 56 vehicles deployed, iStories reports, citing the Krasnodar crisis staff. Satellite analysis suggests smoke stretched 147–250 km over the Black Sea, while locals noted an oily film on the water; Ukrainian forces confirmed strikes that also ignited tanks at Rosneft’s Tuapse refinery, a key export hub, where 60 houses were damaged and two people—a woman and a 14‑year‑old girl—were reported killed. (iStories, 04.17.26)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

Friday, April 10, 2026

• Ukraine’s ambassador to the EU Vsevolod Chentsov insisted that “America is an ally for Ukraine,” saying Kyiv “still rely[ies] on U.S. help on air defense, and it’s critical for us,” even as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has sharpened criticism of Washington. Chentsov avoided directly endorsing Zelenskyy’s claim that “the Americans are sure that they can trust Putin,” instead stressing Trump’s role in “peace efforts” and saying Ukraine “cannot reject” support from either the U.S. or Europe. (Politico, 04.10.26)

Tuesday, April 14, 2026

• Ukraine and Germany signed 10 bilateral defense agreements in Berlin on April 14, including a €3.2 billion Raytheon–MBDA contract for “several hundred” GEM‑T Patriot missiles and a pledge to provide 36 IRIS‑T launchers plus €300 million for Ukrainian long‑range strike weapons production. ISW says the deals also cover co‑production of AI‑enabled mid‑range strike drones and joint use of Ukrainian combat data to refine German systems, strengthening both countries’ defense industrial bases. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov framed the package as part of a broader €4 billion initiative for “advanced drones, missiles, software and modern defense systems,” with Zelenskyy warning Ukraine could produce “twice as much” if it had the funding, while Chancellor Friedrich Merz vowed Germany “will not waver” and pledged help returning draft‑age Ukrainian men from Germany. (ISW, 04.14.26; AP/Washington Post, 04.14.26)

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

• U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance told a Turning Point USA event that ending U.S. funding for Ukraine is “one of the things I’m proudest that we’ve done in this administration,” saying Washington has “told Europe that if you want to buy weapons, you can, but the United States is not buying weapons and sending them to Ukraine anymore.” Under President Donald Trump, nearly all new aid to Kyiv has been halted, forcing European partners to cover the vast majority of 2025 military support, including purchases of Patriot interceptors and other U.S.-made systems. (Kyiv Independent, 04.15.26)
• European leaders meeting in Berlin vowed to keep military aid flowing to Ukraine despite the Iran war, with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warning “we cannot lose sight of Ukraine” and co‑chair John Healey saying “nothing will distract us” from backing Kyiv. Britain, Germany, Norway, Belgium, Bulgaria and Estonia announced new support as Rutte urged allies to reach $60 billion in military aid this year, filling the gap left by President Trump’s decision to halt nearly all U.S. funding. (New York Times, 04.15.26)
• Britain will supply Ukraine with at least 120,000 drones in 2026—its largest drone package of the war—including long‑range strike, reconnaissance, logistics and maritime systems already combat‑tested in Ukraine. Defense Secretary John Healey said the £3 billion annual support will also fund “hundreds of thousands” of artillery shells and thousands of air-defense missiles, stressing that “nothing will distract us” from backing Kyiv despite the Middle East war; much of the drone funding will go to U.K. firms Tekever, Windracers and Malloy Aeronautics. (RBC.ua, 04.15.26)
• President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine’s “top diplomatic priority” is securing more air-defense systems and funding to scale production, as Russia continues daily strikes. Between November and March, Russia launched 27,000 Shahed‑type drones, nearly 600 cruise missiles and 462 ballistic missiles at Ukraine, Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said; Germany has now agreed a €4 billion package, including “several hundred” Patriot missiles, while Norway has pledged €9 billion in assistance and Britain will send 120,000 drones this year. (Washington Post/AP, 04.15.26)
• A little-known U.K.-Ukrainian team has topped the Pentagon’s new killer‑drone competition: Skycutter’s Shrike 10‑F, co‑developed with Ukrainian firm SkyFall and built in Atlanta, scored 99.3 at the first “Gauntlet” fly‑off, far ahead of a California rival at 87.5, Axios reports. The 10‑inch FPV attack drone can run over fiber‑optic cable to defeat jamming, is built without Chinese parts, and draws on SkyFall’s wartime production line, which Gardner says can turn out 123,000 units a month. (Axios, 04.15.26)
• The Economist reports that Ukraine has deployed 228 drone-defense advisers to Gulf states and now intercepts up to 90% of incoming Russian Geran‑2 (Shahed‑type) drones using domestically produced interceptors that cost just $2,000–$5,000 each, versus $50,000 per attacking drone and up to $4 million for a single U.S. Patriot interceptor. European interest is rising: Ukrainian and European firms signed over 20 defense agreements in 2025, nearly double the number in 2023, and the EU has approved a $1.7 billion program to integrate Ukraine’s defense industry into Europe’s industrial base. (The Economist, 04.15.26)
• Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said Italy is “very interested in developing a joint drone production” with Ukraine, calling it a field where Kyiv “has become a leader,” and framed deeper defense cooperation as vital to European security. She also warned it is “too early” to resume Russian gas imports, arguing economic pressure remains one of the best levers to push Moscow toward negotiations. (Bloomberg, 04.15.26)

Thursday, April 16, 2026

• EU defense and space commissioner Andrius Kubilius told the European Parliament’s security and defense committee that the first military tranche from the planned €90 billion EU loan to Ukraine will be spent on purchasing drones from Ukraine’s “frontline” defense industry. Kyiv has requested €28.3 billion in defense aid for 2026, with future tranches expected to involve greater participation by European defense manufacturers. (Ukrainska Pravda, 04.16.26)
• Ukraine has received a final £752 million (about $1 billion) tranche from the U.K. under the G7’s Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration for Ukraine (ERA) mechanism, bringing total British ERA support for Ukrainian defense to £2.26 billion (around $3 billion). The loan is repaid from income earned on frozen Russian sovereign assets, with G7 and EU members having already provided nearly $28 billion via ERA in 2024–25. (Ukrainska Pravda, 04.16.26)
• The UK Treasury has refused to fund from its central contingency reserve the £200 million already committed to preparing British forces for a prospective “coalition of the willing” peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, leaving the Ministry of Defense—which faces a £28 billion four‑year funding gap—to absorb the cost. Officials expect the early‑phase bill for the reassurance force, led jointly with France and headquartered in Paris, to reach £600–800 million, setting up further clashes over how to pay for Britain’s expanded role in Ukraine’s security. (Financial Times, 04.16.26)
• A new Ukrainian Military Expert Council ARES (Allied Reform and Expert Support) has been created under Ukraine’s commander‑in‑chief, bringing in senior Western figures to advise on army transformation, military science and education, and force sustainment. It is chaired by British Gen. Sir Richard Shirreff, former NATO deputy supreme allied commander, and includes David Petraeus, Manfred Nielson, senior Slovak, British, Canadian and Norwegian officers, with the first meeting expected soon. (RBC.ua, 04.16.26)
• Russia’s Defense Ministry published what it says are the names and addresses of European subsidiaries of Ukrainian drone makers, including firms in the U.K., Germany, Denmark, Lithuania, Latvia, the Netherlands, Poland and Czechia, claiming they produce FPV and other UAVs such as “Da Vinci,” “Anubis,” AQ‑400 Kosa and Bulava for Kyiv. Moscow said Europeans should “know the addresses” of these “Ukrainian and joint enterprises,” underscoring what it portrays as Europe’s deep involvement in Ukraine’s drone supply chain; European governments have not yet responded. (Intellinews, 04.16.26)
  • The Czech Foreign Ministry summoned Russia’s ambassador after the Defense Ministry in Moscow published a list of European drone‑related companies—including two in Czechia—and Dmitry Medvedev called it “a list of potential targets for the Russian armed forces.” The Russian statement warned that joint drone production for Ukraine would “sharply escalate” the conflict and turn Europe into Kyiv’s “strategic rear,” while Prague demanded an explanation for what it described as implied threats against its firms. (RFE/RL, 04.17.26)
  • Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said EU countries’ “direct involvement” in the Ukraine war is growing and referred journalists to the Defense Ministry’s position when asked if Moscow is seriously considering strikes on European drone-production sites supplying Ukraine, Kommersant reports. Russian Security Council secretary Sergei Shoigu later claimed Russia has a right to self‑defense if Ukrainian UAVs transit third countries’ airspace. (Kommersant, 04.17.26)
  • David Ignatius writes in WaPo that Russia upped its pressure on Europe this week, as its defense ministry warned it could strike European countries that supply drones to Ukraine, a group that includes Germany, Britain, Sweden, Italy and the Netherlands. Europeans should check “addresses and locations” of companies supplying these drones, Russia growled. Dmitry Medvedev, the former Russian president who now seems to specialize in saber rattling, posted menacingly on X that the defense ministry’s statement amounted to a list of targets: “When strikes become a reality depends on what comes next. Sleep well, European ⁠partners!” (Washington Post, 04.16.26)

Friday, April 17, 2026

• The U.S. has begun delaying weapons deliveries to European allies—and thus indirectly to Ukraine—because its arsenals are “critically depleted” after years of supplying Ukraine, Israel and now fighting Iran, RBC-Ukraine reports, citing Reuters. The delays affect contracts already signed and paid for under the Foreign Military Sales program, with Baltic and Scandinavian countries particularly alarmed as PAC‑3 Patriot interceptors and other air‑defense munitions are diverted to the Middle East, fueling calls in Europe to shift toward domestically produced arms. (RBC.ua, 04.17.26)
• Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine and the Netherlands will begin organizing their first joint production of drones under a “Drone Deal,” deepening defense-industrial cooperation. He thanked The Hague for air-defense, missile and aviation support that “daily saves lives,” while Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten said the Netherlands would ignore Russian threats after Moscow published “drone production addresses” across Europe. (European Pravda/Ukrainska Pravda, 04.17.26)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

Monday, April 13, 2026

• The Trump administration allowed a sanctions waiver on Russian oil to expire Saturday, ending a one‑month exemption that had let buyers legally purchase blacklisted Russian crude stored at sea. The waiver, issued alongside a similar temporary license for Iran expiring April 19, was meant to “keep global oil prices down” after the Iran war pushed them above $100 a barrel, but it also gave Moscow an “economic windfall.” Oil prices rose again Monday after Trump vowed to blockade Iranian exports. (New York Times, 04.13.26)
  • Ukrainian sanctions chief Vladyslav Vlasiuk hailed the U.S. decision not to renew waivers that had allowed purchases of certain Russian and Iranian oil, calling any relief for Moscow “ungrounded” and arguing that “the more sanctions are applied against Russia, the quicker we will see success in peace negotiations.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the “general license” for oil already in transit before mid‑March, justified as a Hormuz‑related stabilizer, would not be extended. (RFE/RL, 04.16.26)

Tuesday, April 14, 2026

• The Trump administration extended a sanctions waiver allowing about 2,000 Lukoil-branded retail gas stations outside Russia to keep operating until October 29, the Treasury Department said. The carve-out covers outlets across Europe, Central Asia, the Middle East and the Americas, including roughly 200 stations in New Jersey, Pennsylvania and New York, and comes after October sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft sparked interest in Lukoil’s estimated $22 billion in international assets. (Reuters, 04.14.26)
• A Moscow arbitration court has declared Microsoft’s Russian subsidiary, Microsoft Rus, bankrupt and opened liquidation proceedings after the company’s liabilities topped 1.5 billion rubles. Microsoft halted sales in Russia in 2022 and by 2024 had just one remaining client, which left in 2025; the unit then faced dozens of lawsuits from major firms such as Aeroflot, VTB, MegaFon and Surgutneftegas over software licenses. Three other Microsoft legal entities in Russia are not covered by the ruling. (Meduza, 04.14.26)
• Russian customs authorities have begun charging sharply higher duties on goods imported via the Eurasian Economic Union if they were made in “unfriendly” countries, lawyers and business owners told Forbes. Rates now range from 15–50%—for example, French perfume is taxed at 20% and lipstick at 35%, versus a base 6.5%—a shift that could raise prices for everyday nonfood goods by 10–15% and up to 30% in sectors like clothing and cosmetics. (Meduza, 04.14.26)
• World Aquatics, the international governing body for water sports, announced Monday that it has restored full membership rights to Russia and Belarus, allowing athletes from both countries to compete under their national flags and anthems for the first time in years.. (MT/AFP, 04.13.26)

Thursday, April 16, 2026

• Slovak Foreign Minister Juraj Blanár said Bratislava is prepared to block the EU’s 20th sanctions package against Russia unless it gets “clear, transparent and verifiable” assurances that the Druzhba oil pipeline will resume operations, but will not obstruct the planned €90 billion EU loan for Ukraine. He noted that the incoming Hungarian government also appears ready to support the loan, whose first military tranche is earmarked for Ukrainian-made drones. (Ukrainska Pravda, 04.16.26)
• A Marseille court fined the owner of the tanker Deyna for improper use of a Mozambican flag and then allowed the vessel—described by Emmanuel Macron as a Russian “shadow fleet” ship circumventing sanctions—to leave port for international waters. European states have repeatedly detained but usually released such tankers carrying Russian oil in violation of sanctions. (Meduza, 04.16.26)
• Ukrainian sanctions chief Vladyslav Vlasiuk said Western components are reaching Russian Shahed‑type drones far faster than before, warning that in Shaheds used in late‑March 2026 attacks Ukraine found U.S. parts manufactured only at the end of 2025—meaning they hit Russian assembly lines “just a few months” after leaving the factory. He said most components are genuine products from American, Chinese, Japanese and German firms (though some are counterfeits), and called the situation “a serious challenge” for the entire export‑control system despite U.S. efforts to prioritize the issue. (RBC.ua, 04.16.26)
• The UK’s National Crime Agency has charged 75‑year‑old British shipping financier John Michael Ormerod with breaching Russia sanctions and money laundering, alleging he moved £200,000 on the day he was designated in May 2025, including £100,000 he “knew or suspected” was criminal proceeds. Ormerod, previously sanctioned for procuring at least 25 tankers later used by Lukoil’s “shadow fleet” to move more than 120 million barrels of Russian oil, is only the second solely British national charged under the UK’s Russia sanctions regime and is due in court on May 15. (Financial Times, 04.16.26)

Friday, April 17, 2026

• U.S. Representative Joe Wilson said reports of U.S.-origin microelectronics found in Russian and Iranian drones “must be addressed,” after Ukraine documented Shahed‑type drones with chips made as recently as 2025 by companies such as AMD and Texas Instruments. Ukrainian sanctions envoy Vladyslav Vlasiuk told RFE/RL that while some parts are fake, many appear genuine, highlighting the “last mile” sanctions problem of reexport networks and intermediaries; experts say OFAC must hit shell firms and transit hubs harder or Western components will keep reaching Russia’s arms industry. (RFE/RL, 04.17.26)
• The White House has formally extended for one year the national emergency first declared in April 2022 regarding Russian‑affiliated vessels, continuing emergency authority for the Department of Homeland Security to regulate the anchorage and movement of such ships in U.S. ports under Proclamation 10371 and the Magnuson Act. The notice, published in the Federal Register, states that Russia’s policies and actions still “constitute a national emergency” causing a disturbance or threatened disturbance of U.S. international relations. (U.S. Federal Register, 04.17.26)
• Deutsche Bank has notified German regulators of potential breaches of EU Russia sanctions after discovering cases in its retail unit where it accepted deposits exceeding €100,000 from individuals subject to EU restrictions, the Financial Times reports. The lapses surfaced after the bank set up a task force to review controls following a February tightening of Germany’s sanctions-enforcement regime, which now mandates faster blocking of prohibited transactions; the move comes months after prosecutors raided Deutsche’s Frankfurt headquarters over a separate money‑laundering probe linked to Roman Abramovich. (Financial Times, 04.17.26)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

• Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Russia “welcomed” talks with the United States on a Ukraine settlement and remains ready to continue them, claiming Moscow accepted U.S. proposals at the 2025 Alaska summit “in good faith” and that Washington had agreed de jure to recognize “realities on the ground,” while blaming European leaders for blocking implementation and criticizing French‑U.K. ideas for “stabilization contingents” in Ukraine. (TASS, 04.15.26)
• Lavrov claimed European countries “like a pack” rushed to pressure Washington after the 2025 U.S.–Russia summit at Alaska’s Anchorage base so that the U.S. administration would “not agree to its own proposal” on Ukraine and would withdraw it. He described the three‑hour meeting—including one‑on‑one talks in the U.S. president’s limousine and a restricted “three‑on‑three” session—as having produced U.S. proposals that Moscow accepted “in good faith” before Europe allegedly intervened. (TASS, 04.15.26)
• Ukrainian pollster Oleksiy Antypovych, head of the Rating sociological group, said about 60% of Ukrainians now consider “searching for a compromise at negotiations” to be the best way to end the war, while roughly one‑third believe Ukraine should either fully restore all its territory or at least return to the pre‑2022 borders by military means. (Strana.ua/Rating Group briefing, 04.16.26)

Friday, April 17, 2026

• Asked about the Ukraine negotiations, U.S. President Donald Trump said “Ukraine is moving forward” and that he would like them “to be able to reach an agreement,” noting “a lot of people are dying in Ukraine” but giving no concrete answer on new peace talks. He acknowledged that Washington is now “very focused on Iran,” saying the priority is to see whether the Iran conflict “can be finished” with a deal “without nuclear weapons,” while touting falling oil prices and a strong stock market as positive signs. (RBC.ua, 04.17.26)
• Ukraine is ready for a Zelenskyy–Putin meeting in Turkey but only in the presence of the U.S.. and Turkish presidents, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said, adding that Kyiv has told Ankara it would accept talks “in the format Zelenskyy–Putin with the participation of Erdoğan and Trump.” Previous rounds have stalled because Russia insists on Ukraine ceding still‑unoccupied parts of Donbas, a condition Kyiv rejects. (RBC.ua, 04.17.26)
  • Sybiha said Russia’s demand that Ukraine withdraw its troops from Donbas is an “unrealizable ultimatum” and reiterated that Kyiv will not accept any initiative that compromises its territorial integrity or sovereignty. He said Ukraine has a 20‑point plan for an unconditional ceasefire with monitoring, though “several sensitive points” remain unresolved, including Moscow’s insistence on its jurisdiction, currency and symbols in occupied areas. (Ukrainska Pravda, 04.17.26)
  • Sybiha rejected Donald Trump’s earlier claim that Ukraine has “no cards” in peace talks, saying Kyiv has “indeed got cards” and that the most difficult period in the bilateral diplomatic track is “behind us.” He called U.S. involvement indispensable, saying that “without the United States, without President Trump’s support, it is unrealistic” to achieve a just and comprehensive peace. (Ukrainska Pravda, 04.17.26)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

• European officials are accelerating a “fallback” plan to ensure NATO can function without U.S. forces, The Wall Street Journal reports, with Germany’s shift under Chancellor Friedrich Merz unlocking broader support from France, the U.K., Poland, Nordics and Canada for a more “European‑led” alliance. The effort focuses on moving Europeans into key command‑and‑control jobs, boosting capabilities in areas like anti‑submarine warfare, refueling and hypersonic weapons, and even exploring whether France’s nuclear deterrent could extend to countries such as Germany if the U.S. role shrinks. (Wall Street Journal, 04.15.26)

• David Ignatius writes: “If you’re Putin, feeling so embattled, you might be starting to think about the next war—against Europe—even as you slog ahead in Ukraine. “You could even be wondering if the time to strike might be soon—before European nations fully rearm, before Ukraine develops new weapons that can reach even deeper into Russia, and while your chum President Donald Trump is in the White House treating NATO like a punching bag. (Washington Post, 04.16.26)²
  • Eugene Rumer,³ a former U.S. national intelligence officer for Russia and now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told David Ignatius, “I proceed from a deep belief that Europe is the most important theater for Russia. That’s where Putin’s energies will be focused,” Rumer told me. As long as Putin is alive, he said, Ukraine will be “unfinished business.” (Washington Post, 04.16.26)

Thursday, April 16, 2026

• U.S. officials have privately told several European governments—including in the Baltics and Scandinavia—that some already‑contracted weapons deliveries under the Foreign Military Sales program will be delayed because stocks are being diverted to the Iran war. The delays, which affect various types of ammunition, are frustrating allies who were urged by Washington to buy more U.S. kit and now see their own defense readiness undermined, while U.S. officials argue the weapons are needed as Europe has refused to help open the Strait of Hormuz. (Reuters, 04.16.26)
• The U.S. is brokering unprecedented military cooperation between Libya’s rival east and west factions in a bid to “squeeze Russia out” of its main African launchpad, the Wall Street Journal reports. At joint exercises near Sirte, U.S. special forces, German medics and Turkish drone operators helped 50 Libyan fighters train under a new six‑member joint command, with Washington dangling UN arms‑embargo exemptions and future training and equipment to wean Libya off Russian and Belarusian support and eventually disrupt Moscow’s air bridge to its sub‑Saharan clients. (Wall Street Journal, 04.16.26)

Friday, April 17, 2026

• The EU will stage its first simulations of invoking Article 42.7—its mutual-assistance clause—to test how the bloc would respond if a member state requested military help, Bloomberg reports. Ambassadors in Brussels and defense ministers meeting in Cyprus in May will rehearse decision‑making under the treaty provision, seen as increasingly relevant amid Trump’s threats to exit NATO; the clause is more strongly worded than NATO’s Article 5 but lacks an equivalent military structure behind it. (Bloomberg, 04.17.26)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

Monday, April 13, 2026

• Chinese workers building a fuel-making unit at a Rosneft refinery in Far East Russia’s Khabarovsk region took to the streets on Sunday to protest unpaid wages, regional authorities said Monday. At least 200 employees of the Russian-Chinese contractor Petro-Hehua marched through the city of Komsomolsk-na-Amure demanding back payments and help from both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin. (MT/AFP, 04.13.26)

Tuesday, April 14, 2026

• Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said President Xi Jinping has put forward four propositions for “safeguarding and promoting peace and stability in the Middle East”: adherence to “peaceful co-existence” among Gulf neighbors; respect for “the sovereignty, security and territorial integrity of the Gulf states”; defense of “the international system with the U.N. at its core”; and a “balanced approach to development and security,” with China ready to “share with the Gulf countries the opportunities through Chinese modernization.” (X, 04.14.26)

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

• Chinese President Xi Jinping told visiting Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that the “stability and certainty” of China–Russia relations are “particularly precious” amid a world of “change and chaos,” calling for closer “strategic collaboration” to defend both countries’ interests and “safeguard the unity of Global South countries.” Xi said Beijing and Moscow must “firmly uphold and practice multilateralism,” “restore the authority and vitality of the United Nations,” and “closely coordinate” within BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to move the international order in a “more just and reasonable” direction, urging “even closer and stronger strategic coordination” and “deepened comprehensive cooperation” to protect their “legitimate interests.” (Washington Post/AP, 04.15.26; TASS, 04.15.26)
• After talks with Xi Jinping in Beijing, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow is ready to “fill the resource gap” and increase energy supplies to China and other partners facing shortages from the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, casting Russian oil and gas as a substitute for constrained Middle Eastern flows. Xi called China–Russia ties a source of “stability and certainty” in a “changing and turbulent” world and urged both sides to “deepen all‑round cooperation” and maintain “strategic focus,” while Lavrov described the relationship as “unshakable amid any storms” and said it plays a “stabilizing role” based on “justice, equality” and non‑interference. His visit, which included “in‑depth exchanges” with Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the Middle East and Ukraine, sets the stage for a Xi–Putin summit in the first half of 2026 as Beijing leans more heavily on discounted Russian energy even under U.S. pressure to curb such purchases. (The Moscow Times, 04.15.26; Wall Street Journal, 04.15.26; TASS, 04.15.26, Vedomosti, 04.15.26)
• The Kremlin confirmed that preparations are underway for Vladimir Putin’s next visit to China, which will include “high‑level meetings,” though dates have not yet been announced. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov called China a “specially privileged strategic partner” and said there are currently no plans for a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump during the trip. Beijing, commenting on Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s recent visit, said both sides would “fully implement” agreements reached by the two leaders and “firmly advance” their comprehensive strategic partnership to a new level. Putin last visited China from August 31 to September 3, 2025, for the SCO summit and WWII anniversary events. (TASS, 04.15.26)
• Two Russian Pacific Fleet frigates and a supply ship have docked at China’s Zhanjiang military port in Guangdong for a five‑day “friendly visit,” during which Russian and Chinese sailors will tour each other’s vessels, hold professional exchanges and sports events; Xinhua stressed the port call is part of routine navy contacts and “not targeted at any third party.” (TASS/Xinhua, 04.15.26)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• Russia is considering placing a nuclear anti-satellite weapon in orbit that could target satellites and cause widespread disruption, a senior U.S. military official said Gen. Stephen Whiting, head of the United States Space Command, a multi-service unified combatant organization, said the United States is “very concerned” about the plan, describing it as part of increased Russian activity in space since the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine. (Kyiv Post, 04.16.26)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• Russian-linked hackers have gained access in recent months to more than 170 email accounts of Ukrainian prosecutors and investigators—at least 284 accounts from 2024–2026—including key anti-corruption and investigative bodies, Reuters reported, citing British and U.S. cyber researchers at Ctrl-Alt-Intel. The group says an “enormous operational error” by the hackers left data exposed, offering a rare window into a wider Russian espionage campaign that also hit military and state targets in NATO states such as Romania, Greece, Bulgaria and Serbia. (Korrespondent.net, 04.15.26)
• Sweden’s Civil Defense Minister Carl‑Oskar Bohlin said Russia’s tactics have shifted from simple denial‑of‑service operations to “destructive cyber attacks” aimed at European infrastructure, citing a thwarted 2025 attempt against a western Swedish heating plant by a group linked to Russian intelligence. He noted similar probes in Norway and Denmark and pointed to a December 2025 Russian campaign against Polish power and renewable facilities, warning this “riskier and more reckless behavior” could cause serious societal damage. (Bloomberg, 04.15.26)
• Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk accused crypto firm Zondacrypto of being built with “Russian money” tied to the Bratva mafia and Russian security services and of sponsoring politicians from the former Law and Justice government, the far‑right Confederation, and a 2025 CPAC gathering in Rzeszow where then–U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem endorsed nationalist Karol Nawrocki. Tusk said Nawrocki, now president, twice vetoed EU‑aligned crypto‑asset regulations while “fully aware” of the company’s background; the president’s office says he opposes only the “flawed” model, while the government argues the law is needed to comply with EU rules. (Washington Post/AP, 04.17.26)
• Russia’s government has submitted a bill to the State Duma introducing Criminal Code Article 171.7 to punish the “illegal organization of cryptocurrency circulation,” with fines of 100,000–300,000 rubles, up to four years of forced labor or prison, and up to seven years for organized groups or “especially large” damage (over 13.5 million rubles). The move continues a broader crackdown that already includes proposed penalties of up to five years for illegal crypto mining. (Meduza, 04.17.26)

Energy exports from CIS:

Monday, April 13, 2026

• Russia’s crude output was essentially flat in March at 9.167 million barrels per day—just above February’s 9.164 million—but still 407,000 bpd below its OPEC+ quota, according to the cartel’s monthly report. Bloomberg reports that Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries and export terminals have constrained Russia’s ability to capitalize on higher prices, even as OPEC+ moves ahead with modest supply hikes in April and May. (Bloomberg, 04.13.26)
• Russian Security Council secretary Nikolai Patrushev said Russia has begun using Navy escorts for tankers carrying Russian oil through the English Channel after UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer authorized the Royal Navy to seize Russian ships, telling Rossiyskaya Gazeta that a Black Sea Fleet frigate recently accompanied a tanker and that “providing Baltic and Finnish airspace” for Ukrainian drones amounts to NATO’s “direct participation” in attacks on Russian infrastructure. (Rossiyskaya Gazeta, 04.13.26)
• Exports of mostly Kazakh oil from a port on Russia’s Black Sea coast are set to match a record next month, offering a degree of relief to European refiners who have been struggling to secure supplies following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Loadings of CPC Blend, including cargoes from Kazakh and Russian origin, are expected to rise next month to about 1.7 million barrels a day, according to traders with knowledge of the loading program, who asked not to be named as they are not authorized to speak to the public. This would match September’s record of 1.72 million barrels a day. (Bloomberg, 04.13.26)

Tuesday, April 14, 2026

• The average price of Russia’s Urals crude reached $106.30 per barrel at western ports in the first 13 days of April, 42% above March levels, according to Argus data cited by Bloomberg and iStories. With Urals far above the $59 budget assumption and worth an estimated 8,300 rubles per barrel, April oil-and-gas revenues could jump to 900–950 billion rubles versus 617 billion in March, and total 2026 hydrocarbon income may exceed 10 trillion rubles if prices hold—a windfall driven by Hormuz disruptions that deepen India and China’s reliance on Russian supply. (iStories, 04.14.26)
• As of April 14 Russia was on course for another oil-tax windfall as the war in the Middle East drives up prices, as well as demand for the country’s crude. Key export blend Urals sold at Russia’s western ports averaged $106.30 a barrel in the first 13 days of April, according to Argus Media, whose data is used by Moscow to calculate oil taxes. That’s a 42% jump from March, when prices were also pushed higher by the escalating conflict. The turmoil has lifted the price of Urals well above the $59 a barrel assumed in Russia’s 2026 budget—a gain anticipated by the government last month when it stepped up spending. (Bloomberg, 04.14.26)
• The International Energy Agency said Russian oil revenues from crude and refined exports “nearly doubled” to $19 billion in March from $9.7 billion in February, as the Iran war pushed Russian crude from about $46 to $78 a barrel. Analysts estimate Moscow will collect over $6.6 billion in extra taxes from the surge, though the first‑quarter budget deficit has already exceeded $60 billion and would need a prolonged price spike to close. (New York Times, 04.14.26)
• While shipments from the Baltic port of Ust-Luga resumed after multiple attacks in recent weeks, that came just as loading operations at Novorossiysk on the Black Sea were stopped by more raids. The terminal’s two largest berths remained out of operation for most of the week, with no sign of their imminent restart. That sent the country’s total four-week average shipments in the period to April 12 down to 3.22 million barrels a day, 200,000 less than the previous week and the lowest since August. (Bloomberg, 04.14.26)
• Ukraine’s drone strikes on key Russian oil-export outlets in the Baltic and Black seas may put India’s crude-refining operations at risk in the near future, according to the International Energy Agency. Last year, 80% of Russian crude imports to India originated from three major ports—Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk—that have recently become regular targets of Ukrainian drones, the Paris-based agency said in its monthly report published Tuesday. (Bloomberg, 04.14.26)
• Dozens of Russian shadow fleet tankers are idling in the Gulf of Finland as they wait for oil terminals damaged by Ukrainian air strikes to resume operations, in what experts say raises the risk of sabotage or environmental damage in one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes. Between 30 and 40 shadow fleet tankers are clustered around unofficial anchorage points in Russian waters, as well as the 6-nautical-mile-wide strip of international waters between Finland and Estonia. (MT/AFP, 04.14.26)
• Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni said it was too early to consider tapping Russian gas despite the Iran war driving up energy prices and squeezing supply. “I keep hoping that when the problem might come up in earnest, that is in January 2027, we’ll have been able to make progress in bringing peace to Ukraine,” Meloni told reporters in Verona Tuesday. “. (Bloomberg, 04.14.26)

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

• Nord Stream AG is suing insurers in London for €580 million over the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline blasts, while Lloyd’s-led underwriters argue they are not liable because the sabotage arose from the Russia–Ukraine war or was state‑ordered and thus falls under war exclusions. Expert testimony before the High Court names four plausible perpetrators—Russia, Ukraine, non‑state Ukrainian groups, or the U.S.—but the judge need only decide whether policy exclusions apply, not who carried out the attack. (Financial Times, 04.16.26)

Friday, April 17, 2026

• Russia’s main Black Sea oil hub Novorossiysk has resumed loading crude at key berth 1 of the Sheskharis terminal after a Ukrainian drone attack earlier in April halted operations and damaged equipment, Bloomberg reports. Ship‑tracking data show the Samos tanker, a Suezmax, began loading there Thursday, restoring capacity after days when only smaller Aframax tankers could use berth 2, limiting exports from a port that shipped about 540,000 barrels per day in Q1. (Bloomberg, 04.17.26)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• While in China Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow wants to restore investment cooperation with countries “ready to work on an equal and mutually respectful basis” once the Ukraine conflict is resolved, adding he believes there are U.S. companies and “interest in the administration” that fit that description. (Kommersant, 04.15.26)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• United States has condemned Russia's latest actions against independent media following reports of new detentions and a high-profile newsroom raid in Moscow. "We have seen the recent reports of two more journalists detained in Russia. The United States condemns any attempts to intimidate, harass, and punish journalists and independent voices for exercising fundamental rights to free speech and a free press," a State Department spokesperson told RFE/RL on April 10 in response to an inquiry about the developments. The comments come after Russian security forces raided the Moscow office of the independent newspaper Novaya Gazeta on April 9, detaining journalist Oleg Roldugin and seizing equipment and documents during a search that lasted more than 13 hours. (RFE/RL, 04.11.26) Also see section on domestic politics below.
• Contrasting the current situation with the Biden years, Lavrov said Russia‑U.S. relations “are not frozen” and that Moscow and Washington now “communicate regularly at various levels,” whereas under Joe Biden “all contacts” were cut; he recalled the 2021 Geneva summit as “frank and serious” but followed, in his telling, by a U.S.-led “coalition” against Russia over alleged invasion plans. (TASS, 04.15.26)
• While in China Lavrov said Russia–U.S. relations are “not frozen” and that regular contacts occur at various levels, many of them not public, contrasting this with the break in dialogue under Joe Biden. He noted that in Trump’s second term Putin and Trump have spoken multiple times, that he regularly talks with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and that presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev has made several trips to the U.S. for economic talks. (Kommersant, 04.15.26)
  • On Cuba, Lavrov said the United States should “begin a dialogue” whenever it dislikes a government, insisting that “politeness and good manners” achieve more than confrontation and noting that both Venezuela and Cuba had previously reached “mutually respectful and beneficial” understandings with Washington that were later rolled back by the U.S. side. (TASS, 04.15.26) 

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

Monday, April 13, 2026

• Citing MTS AdTech data, Kommersant reports that the monthly active audience of Asian messengers in Russia jumped by about 60% in March amid Telegram outages and an effective blockade. Turkish app BiP grew 105% to 1.68 million users, KakaoTalk 82% to 436,400, and WeChat 15% to 1.15 million, while unofficial client Telega surged 160% to 7.5 million before being removed from the App Store. Telegram itself remained dominant, with MAU slipping only 1.5% to 102 million. (Meduza, 04.13.26)
• A Russian government commission has backed Criminal Code amendments introducing fines and prison terms for organizing illegal cryptocurrency circulation, iStories reports. A new Article 171.7 would punish those who handle crypto “without registration or a Central Bank license,” with up to four years in prison for volumes over 3.5 million rubles and up to seven years over 13 million. The law, to take effect in July 2027 if passed, would be investigated by the Investigative Committee and FSB. (iStories, 04.13.26)

Tuesday, April 14, 2026

• A public backlash over tightening internet restrictions in Russia, particularly against the popular Telegram service, is forcing a Kremlin rethink amid worries the crackdown is hurting President Vladimir Putin’s support. The push by Russia’s FSB security service for tougher controls has prompted some top officials to warn of political and economic risks from barring access to the internet, according to people familiar with the discussions. That’s likely to slow the crackdown, allowing Telegram to continue functioning in Russia, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing internal issues. (Bloomberg, 04.14.26)
  • A new Levada Center survey finds regular internet use in Russia stable at 83% of respondents, despite 77% reporting mobile access problems in March 2026. About 80% use social networks, with VKontakte and Telegram the most popular (used by roughly half of respondents), followed by TikTok, Odnoklassniki and YouTube (about one in five), and Instagram*, Rutube and Yandex.Zen (about one in ten). Daily or near‑daily internet use is nearly universal among under‑25s (99%), the well‑off (95%) and Muscovites (91%), while 26% of older people and 29% of the poorest do not go online at all. (Levada Center, 04.14.26)
• The independent newspaper Novaya Gazeta said Tuesday that its managing editor Oleg Roldugin was charged with the illegal gathering and use of personal information. Roldugin was arrested on Thursday amid a police raid on the newspaper’s Moscow office. A judge later ordered him to be held in pre-trial detention until May 10. Investigators accuse Roldugin and “unidentified individuals” of illegally obtaining and publishing personal information. (MT/AFP, 04.14.26)
• Russia’s State Duma on Tuesday passed a bill exempting small businesses in the food and dining sectors from value-added tax until the end of 2026. (MT/AFP, 04.14.26)
• The Financial Times reports that Russia’s war‑driven tax changes—including raising VAT from 20% to 22% and lowering the threshold at which small firms must pay it—are pushing hundreds of thousands of SMEs “to the brink.” Entrepreneurs say they are closing or going gray as consumption slows, borrowing costs stay high, and non‑military spending is squeezed; one ceramics owner said, “we are not closing out of weakness but because we can count.” (Financial Times, 04.14.26)
• Russian publishing executive Oleg Novikov warned that over 50% of Russia’s library holdings could technically be subject to seizure under a literal reading of “foreign agent” and “undesirable organization” laws, Vedomosti reported. He said books risk removal if any contributor—from author to layout designer—is a listed “foreign agent,” or if they were funded by now‑“undesirable” foundations, and urged applying the legal principle of no retroactivity to protect older titles. (Meduza, 04.14.26)
• Russian blogger and former member of the self-proclaimed “temporary government” of the DNR, Alexander Vaskovsky, was detained in St. Petersburg on April 13 and charged with “discrediting” the army over two Telegram posts, Meduza reports. One criticized corruption in the DNR leadership; another commented on Ramzan Kadyrov’s proposal to trade lifting U.S. sanctions for captured Ukrainian soldiers. Vaskovsky says the case relies on an “expert opinion” claiming he insulted the “Donetsk republic” and showed disrespect to army commanders. (Meduza, 04.14.26)
• A Moscow court sentenced exiled actor and outspoken war critic Artur Smolyaniov in absentia to eight years in prison for allegedly spreading “false information” about the Russian army in an interview with Novaya Gazeta Europe discussing a 2022 missile strike on Kryvyi Rih. Prosecutors, who had asked for nearly 10 years, accused him of “dragging the country and the president through the mud;” Smolyaniov, already labeled a “foreign agent,” is also on Russia’s list of “terrorists and extremists.” (Meduza, 04.14.26)

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

• The International Monetary Fund became the first major institution to upgrade Russia’s 2026 growth outlook on the back of the Iran war–driven oil price spike, raising its forecast from 0.8% to 1.1% and citing “favorable oil and gas market conditions,” while warning the broader impact will be limited. Other forecasters, including the World Bank and BOFIT, have kept projections around 0.8–1%, noting that higher oil revenues will mostly plug a widening budget deficit amid a contracting economy and tight monetary policy. (Intellinews, 04.15.26)
• Vladimir Putin has publicly demanded detailed explanations from his government and Central Bank after Russia’s economy unexpectedly contracted instead of growing and the budget blew past its full‑year deficit target in the first quarter. Official data show GDP fell about 1.5–1.8% year‑on‑year in Q1 2026 (a combined 1.8% in January–February), versus a forecast of +1.6%, amid sharp drops in manufacturing, industrial output and construction (down 16% in January and 14% in February). Oil and gas revenues fell roughly 45% in Q1 and March oil tax receipts were nearly 50% lower year‑on‑year, while non‑oil revenues rose only 7% against spending up 17%, pushing the budget deficit to about 4.6 trillion rubles ($58.6 billion) in Q1—already above the 3.8 trillion ruble target for all of 2026. Officials hope higher prices linked to the Iran war will deliver an oil windfall, but high borrowing costs and the surprise slowdown have led many forecasters to cut 2026 growth expectations to around 1%, stoking fears of stagnation (The Moscow Times, 04.15.26; Bloomberg, 04.15.26)
• Russia’s housing construction slumped in Q1 2026, with just 21 million square meters of new housing built—about 30% less than a year earlier, iStories reports. Output fell 85% in Tuva, 84% in St. Petersburg and nearly halved in southern and Siberian regions; only Moscow bucked the trend with a 5.3% increase. Analysts link the drop to the end of mass subsidized mortgages at 8%, high interest rates and rising construction costs. (iStories, 04.15.26)
• Major Russian mobile carriers MTS, MegaFon and Beeline have begun warning users that their official apps may malfunction when VPNs are active, telling customers to switch VPNs off, Meduza reports. The move comes as major services like Yandex, VK, Ozon and banking apps restricted functionality for VPN users under an order from the Digital Development Ministry, which has threatened to remove non‑compliant platforms from “white lists” of sites that remain accessible during internet shutdowns. (Meduza, 04.15.26)
  • Senior Russian officials and big business are unhappy with mobile‑internet shutdowns and blocks, but no one dares ask Vladimir Putin to ease them because he “listens only to the FSB,” which is pushing to lock down Runet before June’s Duma campaign, sources told Faridaily, cited by iStories. They say security agencies are “using the war to manipulate Putin,” who is weak on tech, and that only a sharp rise in opposition parties’ ratings—especially the Communist Party—might give election managers leverage to slow the clampdown. (iStories, 04.15.26)
• Russian human rights project Department One (Pervyi Otdel) says a secret March 8, 2022 “decision” by Vladimir Putin authorized security agencies to place Russians and foreigners who “oppose” the war in Ukraine into facilities operating as pretrial detention centers without court orders. An Investigative Committee memo cited this order to justify one such detention even though no criminal case had been opened, and refers to an unpublished “temporary instruction” on how these sites should operate. (Meduza, 04.15.26)

Thursday, April 16, 2026

• Russia may start rebuilding its National Wellbeing Fund as soon as May by channeling oil revenues above the $59‑per‑barrel cutoff into the sovereign fund, taking advantage of a Middle East war–driven price surge, Bloomberg reports. After drawing roughly 500 billion rubles ($6.6 billion) from the fund in the first two months of 2026 and briefly planning to lower the cutoff to $45–50, Moscow backed off an overhaul once U.S.‑Israeli strikes on Iran pushed up commodity prices. (Bloomberg, 04.16.26)
• Russia is facing an “unprecedented” labor shortage with unemployment at a historic low of 2%, Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said, warning that wage competition, higher production costs and strong consumer demand are overheating the economy and keeping inflation elevated. She linked persistent price pressure partly to Hormuz-related supply disruptions and said this new structural squeeze on the workforce makes it harder to ease interest rates, even as GDP fell 1.8% in the first two months of 2026, prompting Putin to demand fresh proposals to “kickstart” growth. (The Moscow Times, 04.16.26)
• Russia now has one of the world’s highest real interest rates, ranking fifth out of 109 economies analyzed by Bloomberg, with a key rate of 15% and annual inflation at 5.9%, leaving real borrowing costs above 9%. (Bloomberg, 04.16.26)
• Russia’s powerful Second Service of the FSB, previously responsible for persecuting ideological opponents and implicated in the poisoning of Alexei Navalny, has been overseeing the Russian internet since at least summer 2025, The Bell found. Sources say its chief Alexei Sedov met Vladimir Putin shortly before authorities began restricting Telegram and WhatsApp calls and pushing broader blocks on foreign services, marking a “big shift” from the Digital Development Ministry’s more industry‑friendly approach; Minister Maksut Shadayev reportedly managed to dissuade the FSB from fining VPN users, but security officials still advocate blocking all non‑Russian resources. (iStories, 04.16.26)
• New Russian Health Ministry data show the incidence of newly diagnosed alcoholism and alcohol-induced psychosis in Russia jumped 30% in 2025 to 56.9 cases per 100,000 people—the highest level since 2016, after a decade in which the rate had fallen from 107.8 to 40 per 100,000. Mental disorders overall also reached a 14‑year high of 328 first‑time diagnoses per 100,000, with Moscow entering the top‑15 regions (451.6 per 100,000) and Chukotka leading nationwide in both alcoholism (391.4 per 100,000) and deaths from alcohol, drugs and suicide; psychiatrists link the surge to post‑COVID effects, war‑related political and economic stress, and greater de‑stigmatization that encourages more people to seek help. (iStories, 04.16.26)
• Russia has added more than 1,000 cemeteries over the past decade, taking the total from 72,760 to 73,833, and increased its number of state crematoria from 23 in 2015 to 33 in 2025, according to official statistics cited by Moskovsky Komsomolets. (Korrespondent.net, 04.16.26)
• Meduza reports that Russia’s state-run pollster VTsIOM has recorded six straight weeks of decline in Vladimir Putin’s approval, which fell to 66.7% in the April 6–12 survey (down 1.1 points in a week), while his “trust” rating dropped 1.8 points to 72%. Support for ruling party United Russia slid to 27.3% (–2.4 points), as ratings for “New People” (12.4%), the Communists (10.9%), LDPR (10.8%) and A Just Russia (5.2%) all edged up. A Kremlin-linked strategist cited Telegram blocks, mobile internet outages, rising prices and war fatigue as key drivers of discontent. (Meduza, 04.17.26)
• A new Levada Center poll finds 61% of Russians now rate the political situation negatively—52% call it “tense” and 9% “critical, explosive”—up 9 points since May 2025, while positive assessments have fallen 10 points to about one‑third (27% “calm,” 9% “prosperous”). Younger, wealthier and pro‑government respondents, and Muscovites, are more likely to see the situation positively, while women, older and poorer people, and those opposed to the authorities are more pessimistic; Levada says current perceptions resemble those of 2021–22, with negative sentiment again edging up. (Levada Center, 04.16.26)
• The Kremlin publicly acknowledged a viral video appeal by celebrity blogger Viktoria Bonya, in which she warned that ordinary Russians are being “squeezed into a coiled spring” by corrupt officials and could one day “erupt.” Bonya, who says she supports Putin but lives abroad, accused regional and federal authorities of hiding problems from him, citing internet crackdowns, slow flood responses in Dagestan, and mishandled cattle culls in Siberia. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the clip was “quite popular” and insisted “a great deal of work is being done” on the issues she raised. (Reuters, 04.16.26)
• Belgorod governor Vyacheslav Gladkov announced he is taking a “two‑week vacation,” his first such break since 2024, with his chief of staff Alexander Lorentz serving as acting head of the region. The move follows multiple reports that the Kremlin plans to remove Gladkov before September elections, citing his health, the “not very good situation” in the frontline region, and his years managing a war‑adjacent province; media have named Maj. Gen. Alexander Shuvaev as the likely replacement. (iStories, 04.16.26)

Friday, April 17, 2026

• Russia’s economy has largely “exhausted” its internal reserves, leaving the current macroeconomic situation “significantly more difficult” than in recent years, Economy Minister Maksim Reshetnikov told the “My Business” forum, Kommersant reports. He cited a strong ruble, labor shortages, high interest rates, tighter budgets and recent tax changes as key pressures, saying businesses feel these “most acutely” and must now focus on cutting costs and boosting productivity through IT and AI, while warning that rates will fall more slowly than desired because of fiscal constraints. (Kommersant, 04.17.26)
• Russia’s government has submitted a bill to the State Duma setting a maximum 10‑year statute of limitations for most privatization challenges, with a three‑year window from discovery of a violation but no more than 10 years from the asset’s exit from state ownership. The measure, which applies retroactively to unresolved cases, is meant to reassure entrepreneurs who have invested in enterprises privatized long ago, but explicitly excludes seizures based on anti‑corruption or “anti‑extremism” grounds. (Meduza, 04.17.26)

Defense and aerospace:

• Radio Svoboda’s analysis of satellite images shows at least 27 air-defense positions now ring Vladimir Putin’s Valdai residence, with “26 towers built for Pantsir‑S1” systems and a 27th for an S‑400, Meduza reports. Journalist Mark Krutov said Planet Labs imagery indicates construction of eight new Pantsir towers began on March 17 and that “most of them have already been built,” with some already equipped with launchers. (Meduza, 04.12.26)
• In a Kremlin meeting ahead of Cosmonautics Day, Vladimir Putin praised Roscosmos’s “positive” 2025 results—17 launches and 97 spacecraft—saying the sector “feels confident overall,” while Roscosmos chief Dmitry Bakanov highlighted a growing 364‑satellite constellation and plans for a private “New Start” launch project with 600 billion rubles of investment. Putin called the recent deployment of a low‑orbit broadband network “a major event” and urged maintaining reliability as AI and private actors expand their role. (Kremlin, 04.11.26)
• Russia’s recruitment of contract soldiers fell about 20% in the first three months of 2026 compared with a year earlier, despite record average regional signing bonuses of 1.47 million rubles, according to researcher Janis Kluge’s analysis of Finance Ministry data cited by iStories. Around 800–1,000 people a day signed contracts, for a total of 70,500 in 2026 so far, figures that “contradict” Defense Minister Andrei Belousov’s claim that recruitment is “ahead of schedule.” Regions are now ordered to send 10–20% of staff from some enterprises and at least 2% of university students into contract service. (iStories, 04.13.26)
• In its fifth year of war, Russia is targeting university students to fill its expanding drone forces, the New York Times reports. Hundreds of campuses have hosted recruiters offering reinstatement, free tuition and payouts of at least 6.52 million rubles for a year’s service, pitching drones as “low risk” and high‑tech. Critics say the campaign pressures struggling students and masks the dangers of front‑line drone work and open‑ended contracts. (New York Times, 04.13.26)
• An investigation by RFE/RL’s Russian Service details torture, beatings and sexual violence inside Russia’s 237th Artillery Brigade, based on testimony and evidence from deserter Artyom Bykov and other soldiers. Bykov describes being coerced into signing a contract under threat of drug charges, then subjected to brutal hazing after commanders learned he was bisexual, including forced runs in multiple vests, gas‑mask drills, threats of rape, and witnessing others beaten with hammers, mallets and shovel handles or thrown naked into pits, underscoring the persistence of “dedovshchina” despite official claims it was eradicated. (RFE/RL, 04.16.26)
• A Russian milblogger says the Defense Ministry has adopted a “new rule” under which its Advanced Interservice Research and Special Projects directorate will issue drones only to the centralized Unmanned Systems Forces (USF), with USF commander Lt. Col. Yuri Vaganov controlling distribution. ISW assesses that such centralization could concentrate drones and trained operators at key sectors but risks a “drone famine” in regular units, greater corruption, and slower innovation as the volunteer‑driven procurement ecosystem is sidelined. (ISW, 04.14.26)
•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Seven pretrial detention centers, including Moscow’s SIZO‑2 “Lefortovo” and St. Petersburg’s “Shpalerkа,” have been transferred from the Federal Penitentiary Service to the FSB, according to corporate registry data spotted by The Insider, with most facilities seeing simultaneous leadership changes. The shift follows a 2025 law restoring the FSB’s right to run its own jails, a move experts have described as creating a “base for a new Gulag” after Russia’s 2022 exit from the Council of Europe. (Meduza, 04.11.26)
• Two Russian deserters killed security officers trying to detain them in separate incidents on April 16, according to iStories. In Orenburg region, wanted ex‑soldier Sergei Basalaev allegedly opened fire on police in Akkeranovka, killing one officer and seriously wounding three; he had been on the federal wanted list for abandoning his unit and previously used a Phoenix SIM linked to occupied Ukraine. The same day in St. Petersburg, another deserter stabbed to death the fellow soldier escorting him after a prior arrest for leaving his unit, and now faces murder charges for killing a person “due to their official activities.” (iStories, 04.17.26)
• Russia’s FSB and Investigative Committee say they have broken up a vast “paper VAT” fraud scheme that allegedly used thousands of shell firms to generate over 1 trillion rubles ($13.2 billion) in fake tax deductions for some 40,000 companies since 2023. Several suspects have been arrested and charged with illegal formation of legal entities and unlawful circulation of payment instruments, officials said. (The Moscow Times, 04.15.26)
• A Russian court sentenced former senator and ex‑Transneft head Dmitry Savelyev to 10 years in a high‑security penal colony for arranging the attempted murder of his former business partner Sergei Ionov, Mediazona reported. Prosecutors said Savelyev agreed to pay $100,000 to have Ionov—then in prison—killed over a corporate stake dispute, but one intermediary tipped off the FSB; Savelyev denied guilt. (Meduza, 04.14.26)

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov held political consultations in Havana with senior Cuban diplomats and was received by President Miguel Díaz-Canel and other top officials, the Foreign Ministry said. Both sides reaffirmed “the inadmissibility of unilateral coercive measures, interference in the internal affairs of sovereign states, [and] the use of force to overthrow ‘undesirable’ governments.” Moscow expressed “solidarity with the government and people of Cuba” and condemned the U.S. blockade and energy embargo. (Russian Foreign Ministry, 04.09.26)

Saturday, April 11, 2026

• Moscow condemned Israeli airstrikes on Beirut that killed more than 300 people and warned they “threaten to derail the emerging negotiation process” on an Iran cease-fire, Russia’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement cited by the Wall Street Journal. Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the attacks risk a renewal of “large-scale armed confrontation in the Middle East,” noting it was Lebanon’s deadliest day since the U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict began on February 28. (Wall Street Journal, 04.11.26)

Monday, April 13, 2026

• Hungary’s election winner Peter Magyar, leader of the opposition Tisza party, said Budapest is ready for “pragmatic cooperation” with Russia, thanking Moscow and Beijing for “respecting the decision of Hungarian voters” and stressing that “geography is geography.” With 98.9% of ballots counted, Tisza won about 53% of the vote—enough for a constitutional majority—defeating Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz, which took 38.4%. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia would not formally congratulate Magyar because Hungary is now deemed an “unfriendly country” that supports sanctions, although the Kremlin sent Orbán a telegram after his 2022 win. Peskov nonetheless said Moscow “respects” Hungarians’ choice and wants to maintain “very pragmatic contacts,” noting that Magyar’s stated openness to talks “would be useful for both Moscow and Budapest.” CEIP’s Maxim Samorukov notes that Peter Magyar has only promised to “gradually reduce dependence” on Russian energy by the mid‑2030s, and that as an MEP he voted against the €90 billion Ukraine credit while demanding strong protections for ethnic Hungarians in Zakarpattia. (Meduza, 04.13.26; CEIP, 04.13.26)

Tuesday, April 14, 2026

• Russia’s State Duma passed the first reading of a bill allowing the armed forces to operate “extraterritorially” to protect Russian citizens abroad, with any such decision left to the president. Lawyers told Kommersant it may formalize military protection of sanctioned “shadow fleet” tankers, while Faridaily cited scenarios such as attempts to arrest ICC‑wanted officials or try Russian soldiers before foreign tribunals. (Meduza, 04.14.26)

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

• Washington and Moscow both said they would work with incoming Hungarian premier Péter Magyar, who has defeated longtime leader Viktor Orbán—a close ally to both the U.S. and the Russian presidents. Donald Trump on Wednesday told ABC News that Magyar is a “good man” who will “do a good job”. The U.S. president also tried to distance himself from Orbán, even though he had endorsed him in the run-up to Sunday’s election, which Magyar won in a landslide. The Kremlin on Tuesday welcomed Magyar’s suggestion that Hungary would retain a level of co-operation with Russia on energy, given their geographic proximity. “For now, we can note with satisfaction, as far as we understand, his willingness to engage in pragmatic dialogue,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters. “There is mutual willingness on our part, and we will then proceed to take our cue from the specific steps taken by the new Hungarian government.” (Financial Times, 04.15.26)

Thursday, April 16, 2026

• A Russian-installed “supreme court” in occupied Luhansk sentenced Polish citizen Krzysztof Flaczek, 47, to 13 years in prison for allegedly fighting as a mercenary for Ukraine after his capture near Chasiv Yar in November 2024, Russia’s Prosecutor General’s Office said. He is the latest foreigner tried in Russia or occupied Ukraine, where monitors estimate thousands of foreign recruits—including at least 3,300 from the Global South—have been killed. (MT/AFP, 04.16.26)

Friday, April 17, 2026

• Bulgarians vote April 19 in an early election that could return former President Rumen Radev to power as prime minister at the head of a new center‑left “Progressive Bulgaria” coalition, the Washington Post reports. Radev, a Euroskeptic ex–air force chief seen as Bulgaria’s most popular politician, is backed by voters hoping he will tackle oligarchic corruption, while critics fear his pro‑Russian stance; the snap poll follows the collapse of a conservative government amid mass anti‑corruption protests in December 2025. (Washington Post/AP, 04.17.26)

Ukraine:

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

• The High Anti-Corruption Court of Ukraine has granted Yuliia Tymoshenko, the leader of the Batkivshchyna party, who is suspected of offering bribes to members of parliament, permission to travel abroad to attend an international event in Croatia. Taking into account an order by the speaker of parliament, the court has permitted Tymoshenko to travel to Zagreb from 27 April to 3 May. Under the court's ruling, Tymoshenko must return her passport to the authorities within three days of returning to Ukraine. (Ukrainska Pravda, 04.15.26)

Friday, April 17, 2026

• At least 620 attacks on enlistment officers and recruitment centers have been recorded in Ukraine since the start of the full‑scale invasion, the Kyiv Oblast Draft Center said, citing National Police data. Incidents—ranging from assaults to arson—are heaviest in Kharkiv (69 cases), Kyiv (53) and Dnipropetrovsk (45), and have intensified in recent months amid mounting strain on the mobilization system; in April alone, a stabbing in Vinnytsia wounded two draft officers, while another attack in Lviv left an enlistment officer dead. (Kyiv Independent, 04.17.26)
• More than a thousand fraudulent call centers are operating in Kyiv, and across Ukraine their number may exceed 10,000, reported lawyer and private detective Andriy Halych (Antikor, 04.17.26)
• Ukrainian law enforcement said it has uncovered a large-scale corruption scheme involving fuel wood supplies for the Armed Forces (AFU), causing more than Hr.100 million ($2.29 million) in losses, the National Police of Ukraine said on Friday, April 17. Investigators said contractors linked to officials were involved in the scheme, with wood prices in some contracts exceeding market rates by 30–40%. (Kyiv Post, 04.17.26)
• Ukraine’s 58th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade confirmed that its deputy commander has been detained and said it fully supports the pretrial investigation while stressing the presumption of innocence. Sources told Ukrainska Pravda the officer is Lt. Col. Maksym Bobrovskyi, allegedly suspected of soliciting a bribe for transferring a soldier between units. (Ukrainska Pravda, 04.17.26)
• A Kyiv court sentenced former Dniprovskyi district education official Olha Drozdova in absentia to seven years in prison with asset confiscation for embezzling budget funds during 2023 purchases of vegetable cutters and chairs for school bomb shelters. Prosecutors said she overpaid more than 460,000 hryvnias for the cutters and nearly 1.35 million for the chairs; Drozdova, currently abroad and appearing by video, claims she is undergoing medical treatment. (Ukrainska Pravda, 04.17.26)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• A court in Vilnius has opened the trial of five alleged intermediaries and operatives in a GRU parcel‑bomb operation that caused explosions at logistics hubs in Germany, Poland and the U.K. in July 2024, Mediazona reports. The defendants — Ukrainian, Lithuanian and Russian citizens aged 23–69 — are accused of belonging to a terrorist group and carrying out attacks using packages filled with concealed explosives; prosecutors say three parcels detonated (in Leipzig airport, a truck in Poland, and a Birmingham warehouse) and a fourth was defused, while organizers remain in Russia. (Mediazona, 04.17.26)
• Russia and Azerbaijan said they have “properly settled the consequences” of the December 2024 crash of an AZAL Embraer E190, including compensation, according to a joint Foreign Ministry statement that did not detail the arrangements. The document reiterates that the jet was downed “as a result of an unintentional action of an air defense system in Russian airspace”; Putin admitted in October 2025 that Russian air defenses accidentally hit the Baku–Grozny flight after it was rerouted over Kazakhstan during a Ukrainian drone attack, killing 38 people. (Meduza, 04.15.26)
• RFE/RL’s Turkmen Service reports that around 50 Turkmen citizens were detained in Balkanabat on April 5 and 12 as they tried to attend the city’s only Christian church for Catholic and Orthodox Easter. Witnesses and a police source say MNS and police officers questioned converts about who “encouraged” them to become Christians, searched phones, used threats and some violence to push them back to Islam, and brought in imams to urge them to “repent,” underscoring strict state control over all religious activity. (RFE/RL, 04.17.26)
• No significant developments.

Quotable and notable:

• No significant developments.

Footnotes:

1. Russian forces are massing infantry, armor, and tube artillery south of the Donetsk Oblast’s city of Myrnohrad, an area Ukrainian drone pilots “cannot reach,” according to DeepState.
2. For 2025 predictions by Western officials of whether and when Russia may attack a NATO country, see RM’s “Would Russia Attack NATO and, If So, When?”
3. For a summary of “Russia Will Be More Dangerous After the War with Ukraine,” Eugene Rumer, Carnegie Endowment, 04.06.26 follow this link.. 

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10.00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

AI agents were used in production of this digest.

Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by Andriy Andriyenko/Ukraine's 65th Mechanised Brigade via AP.