Russia in Review, March 20–27, 2026

6 Things to Know

“An Israeli strike on a naval outpost in the Caspian Sea targeted Russia’s support for Iran in the war, hitting a supply line that the countries have used to move ammunition, drones and other weaponry,” people familiar with the matter were quoted by WSJ on March 24 as saying. The strike, which occurred on March 18 and targeted the Iranian port of Bandar Anzali, damaged Iranian naval headquarters there, according to WSJ. The strike was Israel’s first ever on the world’s largest inland sea, which connects Russian and Iranian ports about 600 miles apart. “The most important goal of this strike was to limit Russian smuggling and show the Iranians that they don’t have sea defenses in the Caspian,” Eliezer Marum, a former commander of the Israeli Navy told WSJ regarding the strike, which was reportedly carried out by the Israeli Air Force. The route hit has become especially important for transferring Iran’s Shahed drones, which are now made in both countries, according to WSJ. Initially designed by Iran and assembled in Russia, these drones are now being modernized by Russian engineers to improve communication, navigation and targeting, and the technology behind the improvements is shared with Iran, according to WSJ. Russia denies either sharing military technology or intelligence with Iran, but these denials have not obscured reports that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and allied Iraqi militias are now fielding first‑person‑view attack drones guided by fiber‑optic cables, copying tactics Russia pioneered in Ukraine, according to WSJ.
RM’s analysis of ISW data for the past four weeks (Feb. 24–March 24, 2026) indicates that Russian forces lost 4 square miles of Ukraine’s territory (area about three times the size of New York City’s Central Park) during that period. That’s in contrast to the estimated 50 square miles they gained during the previous four-week period (Jan. 27–Feb. 24, 2026), according to the latest issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. According to ISW data, this past week (March 17–24, 2026), Russia lost 4 square miles of Ukraine’s territory. It follows from daily updates posted by Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group, that this past week saw Russian forces advance in or near 15 Ukrainian settlements while Ukrainian armed forces pushed back near one Ukrainian settlement.¹ After rare gains by the Ukrainian army along the southern Zaporizhzhia front in the south—analysts estimate that about 100 square miles were retaken in early 2026—Kyiv now faces a new Russian offensive starting in the spring in the south and in the east, according to NYT.
Russian forces launched nearly 1,000 drones and missiles against Ukraine in a prolonged strike series from the evening of March 23 to the evening of March 24—the “largest Russian strike series against Ukraine of the war thus far,” according to ISW. Between 6:00 p.m. March 23 and 09:00 a.m. March 24, the Russians fired 392 strike drones and 34 missiles, and from 09:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. March 24 another 556 drones, for a total of 982 strike assets, according to ISW. Ukraine downed 256 drones and 25 missiles overnight, and 541 of 556 drones during the day. All seven ballistic missiles hit targets near the frontline in Zaporizhzhia and Poltava oblasts, ISW reported.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says the Trump administration is conditioning high‑level U.S. security guarantees on Ukraine surrendering the remaining Ukrainian‑held part of Donbas—an area roughly 50 by 40 miles (2,000 square miles) in the Donetsk region, according to Reuters and New York Times.² This aligns with Russia’s demand that Kyiv withdraw from the heavily fortified zone, home to about 190,000 civilians, as one of the conditions for ending the war, NYT reported. Zelenskyy warns that ceding the area would let Russia avoid years of costly fighting that could cost it 28,000–35,000 soldiers per month and would create a staging ground for future attacks. He also told Reuters that two vital questions remained unresolved regarding security guarantees: Who would help to fund Ukraine's weapons purchases to sustain its military deterrent, and how exactly would its allies respond in the face of any future Russian aggression?
Ukraine risks running out of money to pay for its defense against Russia within two months as a multitude of factors converge to threaten tens of billions of euros in assistance from the country’s key donors, according to Bloomberg. Kyiv currently has only enough funds to cover spending until June, according to estimates that both domestic and foreign officials shared with this news agency.
U.S. and Russian legislators met in Washington D.C. for talks organized by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, a conservative Republican from Florida who has advocated rapprochement with Moscow and co‑sponsored a bill to end U.S. military aid to Ukraine. Luna said it was imperative that “the world’s two greatest nuclear superpowers” maintain “open dialogue, ideas and open lines of communication.” Russian accounts say the delegation included senior MPs Vyacheslav Nikonov and Svetlana Zhurova. Zhurova later said Ukraine was the “most prominent” topic, followed by disputes over seized Russian diplomatic properties and visas. The Kremlin said it welcomed “any efforts to revive dialogue with the United States.” Ukrainian outlet Ukrainska Pravda noted the State Department approved the visit in January, with analysts warning it risks feeding Kremlin narratives about U.S. division and “war fatigue” as formal U.S.‑mediated talks on ending Russia’s war remain frozen.³

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

Foreign ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) are discussing a major effort to repair damage to the protective shelter at Ukraine's Chernobyl nuclear power plant, with costs estimated at around $575 million, a sign that Kyiv remains at the center of high-level talks despite competing global crises. (RFE/RL, 03.27.26)
Russia condemned reported airstrikes on Iran’s Natanz uranium-enrichment facility, warning they pose a “real risk of a catastrophe across the Middle East,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said. Iranian state media said the site was hit on Saturday; Israel denied responsibility, and the U.S. military had not commented. The IAEA said it was looking into the reports. Natanz has previously been targeted in earlier phases of the current war and in last year’s conflict. (The Moscow Times / AFP, 03.20.26)
Russia said March 25 it was "deeply outraged" by a reported strike on the grounds of Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant, which it partially constructed and helps operate. "We are extremely outraged by this reckless, irresponsible manifestation of a disastrous course," the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on its website. A projectile landed inside the plant's compound late March 24 but caused no damage, Iran's atomic energy organization said, accusing the United States and Israel of attacking the facility. (MT/AFP, 03.25.26)
Russia’s state nuclear corporation Rosatom and Uzbekistan’s Uzatom agency signed a “road map” and an additional agreement to their NPP contract, confirming an integrated configuration for a new plant in Jizzakh region. (Rosatom, 03.24.26)
During Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh’s visit to Moscow, Russia and Vietnam signed an intergovernmental agreement to build the Ninh Thuan‑1 nuclear power plant, establishing the legal framework for two Russian‑designed VVER‑1200 units (2,400 MW total), with Leningrad NPP‑2 as the reference project. (Rosatom, 03.23.26)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko and North Korean ruler Kim Jong Un signed a “friendship and cooperation” treaty in Pyongyang, signaling closer alignment among two key Russian allies confronting the West. Minsk, which hosts Russian tactical nuclear weapons and enabled Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and Pyongyang, which has sent troops and weapons to Russia, pledged deeper cooperation across sectors including education, health care, agriculture and more. The move fits Kim’s push for an “anti‑West alliance” and a multipolar order, even as Lukashenko also seeks better ties with the Trump administration after U.S. easing of some Belarus‑linked sanctions. (AP/Washington Post, 03.27.26)

Iran and its nuclear program:

Saturday, March 21, 2026

Russian President Vladimir Putin used a Nowruz greeting to Iran’s leadership to reiterate that Russia “remains a loyal friend and reliable partner to Tehran during this difficult time,” the Kremlin said, days after reports that Moscow has been supplying Iran with satellite imagery and improved drone tech for attacks on U.S. and Israeli forces. The message underscores Russia’s effort to capitalize on the Iran war economically and strategically while positioning itself as Tehran’s main great‑power backer. (Wall Street Journal, 03.21.26)
Nigeria is facing delays in fertilizer shipments from China and Russia as the Iran war disrupts traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and tightens global supplies of crop nutrients. The head of Nigeria’s state Agriculture Bank said phosphorus fertilizers and ammonium sulfate from China and potash from Russia will be “significantly delayed,” pushing prices higher as farmers scramble for limited product. (Bloomberg, 03.20.26)

Monday, March 23, 2026

U.S. President Donald Trump has postponed for five days his threatened strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure, saying “productive” talks with Tehran are under way. In a social‑media post instructing the “Department of War” to pause operations, he made the delay conditional on the success of the meetings, sending Brent crude briefly below $100 a barrel after recent spikes driven by the Hormuz crisis. (Bloomberg, 03.23.26)
The Kremlin said renewed U.S.–Iran diplomatic talks are the “only way” to end the escalating Middle East war, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov warning that strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities like Natanz are “extremely dangerous” and could trigger a regional catastrophe. Moscow has already condemned a projectile strike on Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant reported last week. (The Moscow Times, 03.23.26)
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth cautioned that Iran’s attacks on oil tankers and the broader damage of the Middle East war did greater damage to oil and gas markets than the Russia-Ukraine war. (Politico, 03.23.26)

Tuesday, March 24, 2026

“An Israeli strike on a naval outpost in the Caspian Sea targeted Russia’s support for Iran in the war, hitting a supply line that the countries have used to move ammunition, drones and other weaponry,” people familiar with the matter were quoted by WSJ on March 24 as saying. The strike, which occurred on March 16 and targeted the Iranian port of Bandar Anzali, damaging Iranian naval headquarters there, according to WSJ. The strike was Israel’s first ever on the world’s largest inland sea, which connects Russian and Iranian ports about 600 miles apart. “The most important goal of this strike was to limit Russian smuggling and show the Iranians that they don’t have sea defenses in the Caspian,” Eliezer Marum, a former commander of the Israeli Navy told WSJ of the strike which was reportedly carried out by the Israeli Air Force. The route has become especially important for transferring Iran’s Shahed drones, now made in both countries—according to WSJ. Initially designed by Iran and assembled in Russia, these drones are now being modernized by Russian engineers to improve communication, navigation and targeting with the technology behind the improvements shared with Iran, according to WSJ. Russia denies either sharing the technology or intelligence with Iran, but these denials have not obscured reports that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and allied Iraqi militias are now fielding first‑person‑view attack drones guided by fiber‑optic cables, copying tactics Russia pioneered in Ukraine, according to WSJ. (Wall Street Journal, 03.27.26, RM, 03.27.26)
- Russia would view the potential widening of the U.S. and Israeli war with Iran into the Caspian Sea “extremely negatively,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on March 24. The comments came a day after a call between the top diplomats of Russia and Iran, in which both sides expressed concern about the “dangerous spread” of the fighting into the Caspian region, according to a summary of the call released by the Russian foreign ministry. (Wall Street Journal, 03.24.26)
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the war in Iran “is emboldening” Russia as his country’s capital came under renewed barrage of air strikes. Moscow is providing intelligence to Tehran and “preparing for new conflicts in the coming years,” the president said in a post on X following a briefing with his team of negotiators on March 24. “This threat of constant war across the map must be stopped,” Zelenskyy wrote. “And this can only be done together – the United States, Europe, and other global actors.” (Bloomberg, 03.24.26)

Wednesday, March 25, 2026

Russia is close to completing a phased shipment of drones, medicine and food to Iran, according to western intelligence reports that detail Moscow’s efforts to keep its embattled partner fighting. Senior Iranian and Russian officials began secretly discussing delivering drones days after Israel and the U.S. attacked Tehran, two officials briefed on the intelligence said. The processing of deliveries began in early March and was expected to be completed by the end of the month. (Financial Times, 03.25.26)
- The Kremlin on March 26 denied a report that it was shipping thousands of attack drones to Iran as it defends itself against ongoing U.S.-Israeli airstrikes. “There are so many fake leaks being spread by the media... Don’t pay attention to them,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters during a daily briefing. (MT/AFP, 03.26.26)
Almost a month after the U.S. and Israel began airstrikes on Iran — which killed the senior leadership in that country and triggered a global energy crisis — the BRICS group has failed to take a position on the war. (Bloomberg, 03.25.26)
Russia is benefiting from a sharp rise in fertilizer prices driven by the U.S.-Israel war against Iran, as other major suppliers in the Middle East halt production and struggle to ship exports via the Strait of Hormuz. The shift has put European supplies at risk, giving fresh impetus to Russia-friendly EU countries to argue that the bloc should ease restrictions on Russian fertilizer imposed in response to the war in Ukraine. (Financial Times, 03.25.26)

Thursday, March 26, 2026

Trump has extended his deadline for a peace deal with Iran by 10 days after mounting worries over the Middle East crisis sent Wall Street equities sliding in their worst day since the conflict began. (Financial Times, 03.26.26)
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly thanked Russia and Vladimir Putin for backing Tehran in its war with the U.S. and Israel, posting an unusual Russian‑language message on X saying that Putin’s messages and “the support of the Russian people inspire us in this war” and pledging “new ties” to ensure regional security, as he thanked “on behalf of the people of Iran” the Russian government and people while Iran continues drone and missile strikes on Israel and Gulf states hosting U.S. bases in retaliation for the joint U.S.‑Israeli attack on Iran launched on Feb. 28. (Anadolu Agency, 03.26.26)
Putin said the consequences of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East remain difficult to predict. “The consequences of the conflict are difficult to assess precisely at this stage,” he said, according to TASS, Russia’s state news agency. “Even those directly involved cannot fully predict how events will unfold.” Putin added that some have said the potential global economic impact could rival the slowdown in development across regions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. (Wall Street Journal, 03.26.26)
Russian intelligence is helping Iran target Americans and U.S. allies, according to the European Union’s foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas. “We see that Russia is helping Iran with intelligence to target Americans, to kill Americans,” Kallas told reporters. “Russia is also supporting Iran now with the drones so that they can attack neighboring countries and also U.S. military bases.” (Bloomberg, 03.26.26)
- Western and Ukrainian officials say Moscow has already provided satellite intelligence and drones built under Iranian license, and is reportedly close to completing “phased shipments” of drones, medicine, and food. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and UK Defense Minister John Healy highlighted deepening Russia–Iran cooperation, alongside links with North Korea and China, while the Kremlin denies any drone transfers. Russia’s own Shahed‑derived drone output has grown from about 100 per month in early 2023 to thousands. (New York Times, 03.26.26)
Russia stands to reap gains from surging global fertilizer prices amid the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, adding to Moscow's windfall from higher oil and gas revenues. The conflict, now in its fourth week, has tightened global supplies of key crop nutrients by damaging Gulf energy infrastructure and choking off shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for both fuel and fertilizer exports. Urea, the most widely traded fertilizer, has risen by roughly 50% since the Iran war began. (MT/AFP, 03.26.26)
A cargo train has arrived in Azerbaijan carrying more than 300 tons of Russian humanitarian aid for Iran, mostly medicine and medical supplies, the former Soviet republic’s state news agency Azertac reported. (Wall Street Journal, 03.26.26)
The conflict in the Middle East is reviving the specter of inflation and hobbling the global economy just as it was showing signs of strengthening at the start of the year, the OECD said. In its updated outlook on March 26, the Paris-based organization sharply increased its inflation forecasts for major economies and now sees the average rate for the Group of 20 this year jumping to 4% — with an even higher pace in the U.S. — rather than the 2.8% it predicted in December. (Bloomberg, 03.26.26)

Friday, March 27, 2026

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in Paris that the U.S. aims to conclude its campaign against Iran “in a matter of weeks, not months,” insisting Washington can “destroy their navy, their air force, their ability to make missiles and drones” without deploying ground troops. (RFE/RL, 03.27.26)
- Rubio warned Iran may try to impose a “toll system” for traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, calling that unacceptable and urging European and Asian states that rely on the route to be ready to help guarantee free passage once the conflict ends. (RFE/RL, 03.27.26)
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and allied Iraqi militias are now fielding first‑person‑view attack drones guided by fiber‑optic cables, copying tactics Russia pioneered in Ukraine and making the systems effectively immune to existing electronic jamming. The Wall Street Journal reports that wire‑guided FPVs, introduced by Russia around Kursk in late 2024, now account for most battlefield casualties in Ukraine and create a roughly 20‑mile‑deep “kill zone” on each side of the front; newer models can spool cable up to 30 miles—about the width of the Strait of Hormuz—forcing defenders to find and destroy launch teams before takeoff. Recent militia videos from Baghdad show such drones loitering over a U.S. base before diving into a Black Hawk helicopter and an air‑defense radar, closely mirroring Russian strikes on Ukrainian assets and underscoring how Ukraine‑war tactics are being rapidly adapted for attacks on U.S. forces in the Middle East. (Wall Street Journal, Wall Street Journal,03.27.26)
A March 2026 Levada Center survey found that 33% of Russians named the war in the Middle East as the month’s most memorable event. Another 8% mentioned the “special military operation,” 6% drone raids and shelling of Russian territory, and 3% each cited internet and messenger blocks, mass livestock culls in Siberia, holidays (8 March, 23 February), and the Olympic/Paralympic Games. Smaller shares (1–2%) pointed to global wars, rising prices and taxes, the Hormuz closure, oil price hikes, partial easing of oil sanctions, spring weather, and a key-rate cut. (Levada Center, 03.27.26)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

Monday, March 23, 2026

Former Russian army officer Konstantin Efremov, now in the United States, was sentenced in absentia to seven years in prison for “military fakes” after publicly describing torture, looting and abuse of Ukrainian POWs and civilians he witnessed in 2022, including beatings and mock executions ordered by senior officers. In a long interview he says the war shattered his faith in the Russian army, recounts how he refused to keep fighting, and argues it is “better to sit in prison than go to war.” (Meduza, 03.23.26)

Tuesday, March 24, 2026

Authorities in Russia’s Belgorod region said they will begin delivering food and mail to border areas using armored vehicles equipped with electronic warfare systems, as Ukrainian drone attacks intensify and disrupt civilian life. (MT/AFP, 03.24.26)

Wednesday, March 25, 2026

U.S. lawmakers from both parties sharply condemned Russia’s mass abduction of Ukrainian children during a congressional hearing on March 25, presenting a united front in support of accountability for what witnesses described as one of the gravest ongoing crimes of the war. It also coincided with a White House summit hosted by First Lady Melania Trump, which included Ukraine’s First Lady Olena Zelenska, focusing on protecting and empowering children. On Capitol Hill, lawmakers and experts said the timing underscored growing international attention to what Ukrainian officials estimate is the forced transfer of about 20,000 children to Russia since the start of the full-scale invasion. (RFE/RL, 03.26.26)
- A new report by the Yale School of Public Health’s Humanitarian Research Lab alleges that Russian state-linked energy giants Gazprom and Rosneft were directly involved in the transfer and political indoctrination of thousands of Ukrainian children, speakers said during a March 25 press conference releasing the report. (RFE/RL, 03.25.26)
Maxim Timchenko, CEO of Ukraine’s largest private energy firm DTEK, said this past winter was “the hardest since independence” as stepped‑up Russian strikes hit not only the grid but also gas production, destroying about 60% of Ukraine’s gas output capacity in a single wave of attacks last October. He told Axios DTEK’s wartime playbook—prioritizing which plants get air‑defense coverage, expanding bomb‑shelter capacity for staff, and pre‑stockpiling key equipment such as transformers and gas compressors—offers clear lessons for Middle Eastern utilities now under Iranian threat, and he urged foreign firms to see Ukraine as investable despite the war. (Axios, 03.25.26)

Friday, March 27, 2026

Ukrainian Presidential Office head Kyrylo Budanov said Ukraine and Russia are working on a “large” prisoner-of-war exchange that could take place at Easter, adding that negotiations to return Ukrainian soldiers from Russian captivity continue daily. He expressed hope that by Orthodox Easter on April 12 (Catholic Easter falls on April 5) “we will all see a big exchange” and promised that everything necessary would be done to make it happen. (RBC-Ukraine, 03.27.26)
After admitting about 280,000 Ukrainians under the Uniting for Ukraine (U4U) humanitarian program launched in 2022, the U.S. under President Trump has halted new U4U applications and begun selectively denying extensions, CNN reports. Immigration lawyer Yulia Bikbova says ICE now has broad latitude to detain Ukrainians whose status lapses. One 34‑year‑old U4U beneficiary, “Zhenya,” was detained in November 2025 after his renewal stalled for over a year; fearing conscription if deported to Ukraine, he ultimately agreed to leave the U.S. in March 2026. (Meduza, 03.27.26)

For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

RM’s analysis of ISW data for the past four weeks (Feb. 24–March 24, 2026) indicates that Russian forces lost 4 square miles of Ukraine’s territory (area about three times the size of New York City’s Central Park) during that period. That’s in contrast to the estimated 50 square miles they gained during the previous four-week period (Jan. 27–Feb. 24, 2026) according to the latest issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (RM, 03.25.26)

Friday, March 20, 2026

Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Platonivka and advanced near Riznykivka, Zakitne and in the village itself. (RM, 03.27.26)
Ukraine has gone on the offensive in southern Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk after Elon Musk’s SpaceX cut Russian troops off from Starlink in early February, WSJ reports. The “white‑list” change left Russian commanders suddenly blind to live drone feeds and reliant on interceptable radio, sharply reducing drone strikes and coordination. Ukrainian forces say they’ve retaken about 150 square miles—mostly fields and villages—by exploiting the disruption, while Russia scrambles to improvise with cables, short‑range wireless links and alternative satellites that still don’t match Starlink’s effectiveness. (Wall Street Journal, 03.20.26)

Saturday, March 21, 2026

Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Minkivka and near Fedorivka Druha. (RM, 03.27.26)
Ukraine launched one of its largest drone barrages of the war overnight March 20–21, with Russia’s Defense Ministry claiming 283 drones were intercepted across 15 regions, including about 90 over Rostov and more than 20 near Moscow, briefly disrupting flights at Sheremetyevo. Kyiv said its drones struck Rosneft’s Saratov refinery, damaging a processing unit and vertical storage tank at a 140,000‑barrel‑a‑day plant that supplies fuel to Russia’s military, while regional officials reported two people injured and homes damaged in Saratov oblast. Russian authorities said additional drones were downed near Bashneft’s three Ufa refineries—together capable of processing about 470,000 barrels a day—with debris wounding two workers at a nearby construction site; independent outlet Astra reported the drones appeared headed for Ufa’s northern industrial zone. The attacks underscore Ukraine’s ability to hit critical energy infrastructure up to roughly 1,750 km inside Russia, in retaliation for near‑daily Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities. (Bloomberg, 03.21.26, The Moscow Times / AFP, 03.21.26, Bloomberg, 03.21.26, Meduza, 03.21.26)
Ukraine is drawing on prison populations to bolster its forces, with aging male convicts and, increasingly, women released from jail to serve in Shkval battalions under “until the end of the war” contracts. Female ex‑prisoners are training as drone operators, while older men are sent on high‑risk assault missions; many are motivated by revenge or a search for dignity, but casualty rates are severe, exemplified by one recruit who lost both legs and most fingers on his first mission. (RFE/RL, 03.21.26)

Sunday, March 22, 2026

Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Vovchansk, Synkivka and near Zaliznyanske. (RM, 03.27.26)
A Ukrainian drone attack ignited fuel reservoirs at Russia’s Primorsk oil-export terminal on the Baltic Sea, forcing suspension of operations there and at nearby Ust-Luga, regional governor Alexander Drozdenko said. Primorsk can ship over 1 million barrels of crude a day and Ust-Luga about 700,000, making the strike one of Kyiv’s most significant hits on Russia’s export infrastructure to date. (The Moscow Times, 03.23.26)
Ukraine’s unmanned forces chief Robert “Madyar” Brovdi has built a drone‑warfare system that aims to “bleed Russia’s army dry,” The Economist reports. His units—about 2% of Ukraine’s manpower—now account for over a third of verified Russian casualties. (The Economist, 03.22.26)
Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces spokesman Col. Vladyslav Voloshyn said Russia plans to begin deploying mobilized personnel currently stationed in Crimea to frontline combat on April 1, starting with replenishing the 810th Separate Naval Infantry Brigade, which is slated to be expanded into a full naval infantry division. ISW assesses this reflects heavy Russian losses and difficulty recruiting enough volunteers, even as Moscow has already converted the 155th and 336th brigades into the 55th and 120th naval infantry divisions. (ISW, 03.22.26)

Monday, March 23, 2026

Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Zaliznychne. (RM, 03.27.26)
The remaining Ukrainian‑held part of Donbas is about 6,000 square kilometers (roughly 2,300 square miles). (Reuters, 03.25.26)
Ukraine and Russia exchanged drone strikes, involving over 200 drones from each side, following U.S.-Ukrainian talks in Florida that also addressed potential prisoner exchanges between Russia and Ukraine. Russian air defense forces reported intercepting and destroying 249 Ukrainian drones overnight, marking one of the largest Ukrainian drone attacks recorded as Ukraine intensifies its attacks on Russian energy facilities. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Air Force said Russian forces launched 251 strike drones during the same period. (RFE/RL, 03.23.26)
Putin has signed a law allowing private security companies to temporarily use firearms to protect critical infrastructure from drone attacks during the war in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 03.23.26)

Tuesday, March 24, 2026

Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Ambarne. (RM, 03.27.26)
Russian forces launched nearly 1,000 drones and missiles against Ukraine in a prolonged strike series from the evening of March 23 to the evening of March 24 – the largest Russian strike series against Ukraine of the war thus far. Between 18:00 March 23 and 09:00 March 24 they fired 392 strike drones and 34 missiles, and from 09:00 to 18:00 March 24 another 556 drones, for a total of 982 strike assets. Ukraine downed 256 drones and 25 missiles overnight, and 541 of 556 drones during the day. All seven ballistic missiles hit targets near the frontline in Zaporizhzhia and Poltava oblasts. Strikes hit civilian, energy, and transport infrastructure in at least 11 oblasts and killed at least four civilians; a UNESCO World Heritage site in Lviv was also damaged. (ISW, 03.24.26)
- The unusual daytime strikes followed a more typical series of overnight attacks in which Russian forces launched 34 missiles and 392 attack drones. Those killed two people in the Poltava region, one in Zaporizhzhia and another on a passenger train in Kharkiv, according to the local authorities. (New York Times, 03.24.26)

Wednesday, March 25, 2026

Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Hryshyne, Pazeno and in Riznykivka. (RM, 03.27.26)
Ukrainian forces have launched their most intense drone‑and‑missile campaign of the year against Russia’s Baltic energy and naval infrastructure, in what analysts call the most serious threat to Russian oil exports since 2022. Ukrainian drones repeatedly struck the Novatek oil terminal and associated facilities at Ust‑Luga in Leningrad Oblast between March 24–27, forcing a halt to crude loadings, setting storage tanks and loading equipment ablaze, and sealing off parts of the terminal; NASA heat data and local reports indicate fires at both Ust‑Luga and nearby Primorsk). Kyiv’s General Staff and Ukrainian media say drones also hit a dry‑cargo vessel, a building near an FSB base in Vyborg, and the Vyborg Shipbuilding Plant, where preliminary reports indicate a strike on the Purga‑class Project 23550 patrol icebreaker being built for the FSB Border Service—an ice‑capable patrol ship that can double as a combatant. (RBC.ua, 03.25.26, ISW, 03.25.26, Bloomberg, 03.27.26, RFE/RL, 03.26.26, ISW, 03.25.26, MT/AFP, 03.25.26, Bloomberg, 03.25.26, MT/AFP, 03.25.26)
Ukraine in February gained more ground than it lost, for the first month since 2023, according to analysts. While the fuzzy nature of the front in Ukraine makes it difficult to assess territorial gains, analysts estimated that Kyiv’s forces clawed back about 100 square miles of territory during the first two months of the year. A small assist came from Elon Musk’s unexpected decision in February to block Russian troops’ access to his satellite internet service, Starlink. But Russian troops are pushing forward in other areas and are looking to retake land they recently lost, analysts and the Ukrainian military say. “They are massing in these places,” said Lt. Col. Vitaliy Gersak, a Ukrainian commander in Zaporizhzhia, “and want to push us again.” (New York Times, 03.25.26)

Thursday, March 26, 2026

Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Hryshyne and Sofiyivka. (RM, 03.27.26)
Ukrainian forces reportedly continued to make measurable gains in southern Ukraine ahead of Russia’s planned Spring–Summer 2026 offensive against the Fortress Belt. On March 26, Ukraine’s Air Assault Forces reported the liberation of Berezove (southeast of Oleksandrivka), eliminating a Russian salient. (ISW, 03.26.26)
Ukrainian drone attacks and Western seizures of Russian‑linked tankers are cutting deeply into Russia’s oil export capacity. Reuters calculations cited by ISW indicate that Ukrainian strikes, Druzhba pipeline disruptions, and tanker seizures have halted at least 40% of Russia’s export capacity—about 2 million barrels per day. In March 2026, Ukraine struck all three major western export ports: Novorossiysk (Black Sea) and Primorsk and Ust‑Luga (Baltic), temporarily halting crude loading at Primorsk and Ust‑Luga and forcing Novorossiysk to operate below planned capacity. Seizures of “Russia‑related” tankers in Europe have additionally disrupted roughly 300,000 barrels per day of Arctic oil exports from Murmansk. Russia still sends about 1.9 million barrels per day to China and around 250,000 barrels per day from Sakhalin, plus some 300,000 barrels per day to Belarusian refineries, but logistical limits constrain further diversion. ISW assesses that ongoing Ukrainian strikes and European pressure on the shadow fleet may significantly erode Russian oil revenues despite partial U.S. sanctions relief. (ISW, 03.26.26)
- Ukraine said it targeted a key Russian export-oriented oil refinery in the Leningrad region overnight, as Kyiv has carried out intensive attacks on Baltic energy infrastructure this week. The attack on the Kirishi facility was conducted by Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces and the nation’s armed forces, USF chief Robert Brovdi said in a Telegram statement. Brovdi didn’t specify whether it resulted in any damage. Leningrad regional authorities earlier March 26 said the drone attack caused a fire in the industrial area of Kirishi, without providing further details. (Bloomberg, 03.26.26)

Friday, March 27, 2026

After rare gains along the southern Zaporizhzhia front — about 100 square miles retaken in early 2026, the first month since 2023 when Ukraine gained more ground than it lost — Kyiv now faces a renewed Russian spring offensive. Russian forces are massing near Huliaipole and pushing in Kharkiv, Sumy and Donetsk, using infantry “meat‑grinder” assaults and small infiltration groups as both sides struggle to use armor under constant drone surveillance. Analysts expect “seesaw” battles as weather improves and fighting intensifies. (New York Times, 03.27.26)
Ukrainian Special Operations Forces said they struck a Russian base for operators of unmanned surface vessels in occupied Sevastopol, as well as the Vostochny training range in occupied Zaporizhzhia and several targets near Velyka Novosilka in Donetsk region. Middle Strike SSO units, working with local resistance, used drones to hit a logistics hub, troop concentration point, command post and logistics node, which they said disrupted Russian operations on that sector of the front. (Korrespondent.net, 03.27.26)
Ukrainian drones reportedly struck the Apatit plant in Cherepovets, Vologda region, sparking a fire at what is described as Europe’s largest producer of phosphate fertilizers, phosphoric and sulfuric acid, and a major NPK producer within the PhosAgro group. Local videos showed flames at the chemical cluster and residents fleeing, with Russian outlets saying there was also a blaze near the port of Vysotsk in Vyborg overnight. (RBC-Ukraine, 03.27.26)
Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia’s Belgorod region killed one motorist and injured at least two others, regional authorities said. (The Moscow Times, 03.27.26)

Military aid to Ukraine:

Sunday, March 22, 2026

The U.S. has already spent an estimated $100 billion on Operation Epic Fury against Iran in its first two weeks—more than was actually disbursed for Ukraine over four years of support, bne IntelliNews calculates. While $188 billion was formally allocated to Kyiv since 2022, only about $83–114 billion was used, roughly 90% of it inside the U.S. on weapons procurement, underscoring how Washington’s Iran campaign is rapidly eclipsing Ukraine in resource priority. (bne IntelliNews, 03.22.26)

Wednesday, March 25, 2026

Following heavy Russian bombardment of Ukrainian cities on March 25, Zelenskyy thanked the Trump administration for maintaining the supplies of Patriot missile defense systems, despite increased demand for these weapons because of the conflict in the Gulf. "Deliveries to us were not stopped. I'm very grateful to President Trump, and to his team," Zelenskyy said. "But this supply of Patriot missiles is not as large as we need." (Reuters, 03.25.26)

Thursday, March 26, 2026

The Pentagon is considering whether to divert weapons intended for Ukraine to the Middle East as the war in Iran depletes some of the U.S. military’s most critical munitions, according to three people familiar with the matter. (Washington Post, 03.26.26)

Friday, March 27, 2026

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said no weapons intended for Ukraine have yet been diverted to the Iran war, but acknowledged they “could” be, stressing that U.S. needs come first for munitions bought via NATO’s PURL scheme. He framed these as “our weapons” and “sales,” even though Europeans pay for them, while Germany and other allies insist PURL‑funded systems must still go to Ukraine as promised. NATO’s Mark Rutte said Patriot interceptors and other air‑defense ammunition under PURL continue to flow to Kyiv. (Bloomberg, 03.27.26)
Ukraine risks running out of money to pay for its defense against Russia within two months as a multitude of factors converge to threaten tens of billions of euros in assistance from the country’s key donors. Kyiv currently has only enough funds to cover spending until June, according to estimates shared by both domestic and foreign officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information. (Bloomberg, 03.27.26)
Ukraine signed a military agreement with Saudi Arabia as Zelenskyy seeks to develop ties in the Middle East amid rising uncertainties over Western support for his nation. The accord lays the foundation for future military contracts, technological cooperation and investment with Saudi Arabia, Zelenskyy said on X on March 27 after a meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. (Bloomberg, 03.27.26)

Foreign exits from Russia have dwindled to a trickle as Kremlin “countersanctions” make selling and repatriating assets increasingly difficult, according to a report by consulting firm Kept (formerly KPMG Russia). Only 23 exit deals occurred in 2025—about 8% of M&A activity—down from 202 in 2022, with many pending applications stuck before a government commission that now demands sales at least 60% below market value plus a 35% “voluntary contribution.” Many remaining foreign firms quietly keep operating, hibernate on paper, or simply cease activity without formal liquidation. (Russia.Post, 03.17.26)

Sunday, March 22, 2026

Zelenskyy called for renewed economic pressure on Russia, saying it was enjoying significantly higher revenues from oil sales that help it to finance its invasion of Ukraine, since the U.S. eased sanctions on Russian oil in an effort to alleviate the Iran war's impact on global energy supplies. “Revenues give Russia a sense of impunity and the ability to continue the war. That is why pressure must continue and sanctions must work,” Zelenskyy said in a social-media post on March 22 after another wave of Russian missile attacks against Ukrainian cities. (Wall Street Journal, 03.22.26)

Thursday, March 26, 2026

A bipartisan pair of U.S. senators, Democrat Jeanne Shaheen and Republican Thom Tillis, plan to introduce the “Block Putin Act,” which would mandate financial and visa sanctions on senior Hungarian officials involved in obstructing Ukraine aid and maintaining purchases of Russian oil and gas, according to the Financial Times. The move comes as Viktor Orbán, a close ally of Putin, is holding up a €90bn EU loan to Ukraine while campaigning on anti‑Ukraine, pro‑Russian‑energy themes, and as reports emerge that Vice President JD Vance may visit Budapest ahead of Hungary’s April elections. (Financial Times, 03.27.26)
A path is clearing for European holders of Russia’s foreign currency bonds to recover payments immobilized by international sanctions since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Euroclear Bank SA has eased its rules for payments linked to frozen Russian securities, allowing certain transactions benefiting foreign, non-U.S. investors to proceed without authorization from the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, according to a person familiar with the matter. (Bloomberg, 03.26.26)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Saturday, March 21, 2026

Zelenskyy sent a delegation to the United States to revive U.S.-mediated peace talks with Russia that were frozen by the Iran war, while stressing concern over Washington’s temporary easing of oil sanctions on Moscow and seeking postwar security guarantees for Ukraine. Russian officials will not attend this round, but Kyiv hopes to lock in dates for a future trilateral session and to leverage Ukraine’s growing role helping U.S. and Gulf partners counter Iranian drones into deeper security partnerships. (New York Times, 03.21.26)

Wednesday, March 25, 2026

In early 2026, mounting economic strain pushed Putin to take negotiations on Ukraine more seriously: he began focusing on the collapsing economy, considered overhauling his negotiating team by replacing weak envoy Kirill Dmitriev with powerful oil boss Igor Sechin, and rumors swirled about sweeping government reshuffles that could accompany a real shift toward talks, according to exiled Russian journalist Mikhail Zygar. The U.S.–Israeli war with Iran abruptly changed Putin’s calculus. Zygar argues that Putin now sees little point in concessions while the U.S. is distracted in the Middle East, burning munitions and possibly weakening Trump politically—reinforcing Putin’s belief that any U.S. stance is temporary. Yet with Russia’s economy and domestic politics still fragile, he will soon face a stark choice: move toward de‑escalation in Ukraine or double down with harsher repression and possibly new mobilization. (New York Times, 03.25.26)
"The Middle East definitely has an impact on President Trump, and I think on his next steps. President Trump, unfortunately, in my opinion, still chooses a strategy of putting more pressure on the Ukrainian side," Zelenskyy told Reuters. Two vital questions remained unresolved regarding security guarantees, Zelenskyy said: Who would help to fund Ukraine's weapons purchases to sustain its military deterrent, and how exactly would its allies respond in the face of any future Russian aggression? He repeated that a summit with Trump, Putin and himself was the only way to settle outstanding questions on territory and security guarantees to clinch a peace deal. (Reuters, 03.25.26)

Thursday, March 26, 2026

Zelenskyy says the Trump administration is explicitly tying a U.S. security‑guarantees deal to Kyiv’s agreement to surrender the remaining Ukrainian‑held part of Donbas—an area of roughly 50 by 40 miles in Donetsk region with about 190,000 civilians—bringing Washington’s position into line with Russia’s demand that Ukraine withdraw from the heavily fortified zone in exchange for ending the war. He told Reuters and the New York Times that U.S. officials are “prepared to finalize these guarantees at a high level once Ukraine is ready to withdraw from Donbas,” a proposal he calls a grave security risk for Ukraine and Europe because abandoning years‑built defenses would hand Moscow a ready‑made defensive belt and a staging ground for future attacks, allowing Russia to avoid continued fighting that Kyiv estimates could otherwise cost it 28,000–35,000 soldiers a month. Zelenskyy, while thanking President Trump for continued Patriot deliveries and stressing Ukraine’s growing capacity to strike deep inside Russia with long‑range missiles and drones, says Kyiv instead proposes either a cease‑fire along current lines or a demilitarized zone, and insists that retaining eastern Ukraine itself must be part of any long‑term security guarantees. Zelensky told Reuters that two vital questions remained unresolved regarding security guarantees: Who would help to fund Ukraine's weapons purchases to sustain its military deterrent, and how exactly would its allies respond in the face of any future Russian aggression? (Reuters, 03.26.26, New York Times, 03.26.26, New York Times, 03.26.26)
Finnish President Alexander Stubb warned that U.S.-led efforts to end Russia’s war in Ukraine may have stalled completely, citing a deadlock over territory and a lack of willingness from Moscow to make peace. “It may be due to the war in Iran, which is drawing attention away from Ukraine. But it may also be that negotiations have come to a dead end because they are no longer making progress,” he said. Stubb added that U.S. negotiators had “done everything they could,” and that the outcome now hinges largely on one issue – the status of Donbas. “The big problem is that I don’t think Russia wants peace,” he said. (Kyiv Post, 03.26.26)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

Saturday, March 21, 2026

Russian foreign intelligence operatives proposed staging a fake assassination attempt on Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán—the “Gamechanger”—to shift the tight April 12 election campaign from economic issues to security and boost his chances, according to an SVR report obtained by European intelligence and reviewed by The Washington Post. The document is part of broader Kremlin efforts to keep its ally in power, alongside online influence operations and reported GRU activity in Hungary, as Orbán faces a strong challenge from reformist conservative Péter Magyar. (Washington Post, 03.21.26)
- EU leaders are bracing for the possibility that their summit will end without agreement on a €90 billion loan package for Ukraine because Viktor Orbán continues to veto the deal, Politico reports. The blockage underscores how Hungary’s Russia‑friendly government can still obstruct large‑scale support for Kyiv, even as most member states push to lock in multi‑year military and economic aid. (Politico, 03.19.26)
- EU officials have begun excluding Hungary from some sensitive internal discussions over fears that Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó is leaking information to Russia, several diplomats told Politico. They say Budapest is no longer fully trusted after years of pro‑Kremlin positioning and repeated obstruction of Ukraine‑related decisions. (Politico, 03.19.26)
Czech authorities are investigating a predawn fire at a Pardubice warehouse owned by arms maker LPP Holding—whose drones and a new Narwhal cruise missile have ties to Ukraine’s defense—as a terrorist attack. A previously unknown group, “Earthquake Faction,” claimed responsibility, calling LPP a key Israeli-linked producer, but security services are also probing whether the incident was a false-flag operation by another actor or state. No injuries were reported; the blaze damaged a facility about 100 km east of Prague. (RFE/RL, 03.21.26)

Sunday, March 22, 2026

Ukrainian and U.S. delegations wrapped up two days of talks in Florida on ending Russia’s four‑year invasion, without Russian participation, and discussed a possible new prisoner‑of‑war exchange, Zelenskyy said. He also urged allies to tighten sanctions, particularly against Russia’s “shadow fleet” of tankers, arguing that oil revenues must be cut off to curb Moscow’s war‑fighting capacity. (Reuters, 03.22.26)

Thursday, March 26, 2026

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s 2025 Annual Report says European allies and Canada have boosted defense spending by 20% year-on-year, with all members now meeting or exceeding the 2% of GDP target for the first time. (NATO, 03.26.26)

Friday, March 27, 2026

Ukraine’s armed forces will join large-scale JEF LION exercises later this year with the UK‑led Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) of Nordic, Baltic and Dutch militaries, in what EU officials see as a concrete step to embed Kyiv more deeply in Europe’s security architecture while formal NATO membership remains blocked. (Financial Times, 03.27.26)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

No significant developments.

Missile defense:

No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

Russia’s Project 667BDRM/Delta IV nuclear submarine Karelia is preparing to return to service after overhaul and reactor refueling, carrying 16 Sineva (R‑29RM) SLBMs, each with up to four warheads, Russian naval sources told TASS. Based at Gadzhievo in the Northern Fleet, Karelia previously underwent major repairs in 2004–2009 and took part in strategic exercises in 2019 and 2022. One fleet supporter suggested it could remain in service until about 2038, though that has not been officially confirmed. (Russianforces.org, 03.19.26)

Counterterrorism:

No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

EU migration commissioner Magnus Brunner called Putin “the main driving force” behind increased migration to Europe over the past decade, citing Russia’s support for Syrian President Bashar al‑Assad’s war, which triggered the 2015–16 refugee crisis, and Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, which has sent about 4.3 million Ukrainians into temporary protection in the EU. He also warned that Russia’s backing for Iran in the current Middle East war could spark new flows, though none are visible yet. (Meduza, 03.23.26)

Cyber security/AI:

Belgorod governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said the state‑controlled messaging app Max cannot send push notifications about air‑raid alerts because the necessary technology depends on foreign software, which contradicts current “import‑substitution” policies. His remark underscores technical limits in Russia’s effort to replace widely used apps like Telegram with domestically controlled platforms, even as frontline regions rely on fast alerts to warn civilians of Ukrainian strikes. (EJDaily’s Telegram channel, 03.27.26)
A Russian Belgorod Oblast Telegram channel reported on March 25 that residents complained that they did not receive any warning notifications about incoming Ukrainian strikes overnight and that air sirens activated only after the strikes had already occurred. Residents also complained that they were unable to access whitelisted apps during the mobile internet shutdowns. (ISW, 03.25.26)

Energy exports from CIS:

Friday, March 20, 2026

Lukoil booked a 1.67 trillion‑ruble ($19.8 billion) impairment in 2025, fully writing off its foreign assets after U.S. sanctions forced it to relinquish control of overseas operations, leading to a net loss of 1.06 trillion rubles versus a profit a year earlier. Russia’s No. 2 oil producer has stakes in refineries, fields from Iraq to Kazakhstan, and about 5,300 fuel stations in 20 countries, and has agreed to sell most international assets to Carlyle Group, pending OFAC approval. Any proceeds are likely to be trapped in special accounts until sanctions are lifted. (Bloomberg, 03.20.26)

Monday, March 23, 2026

Putin told top economic officials that Russian oil and gas companies should use the billions in extra revenue from war‑driven price spikes to pay down domestic bank debt. Brent and Urals crude have climbed back above $100 per barrel, and a U.S. sanctions waiver on Russian oil loaded between March 12 and April 11 has helped channel an estimated $150 million a day in additional budget income to Moscow. (MT/AFP, 03.23.26)

Tuesday, March 24, 2026

The Kremlin is earning the most from its oil exports since just after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine as it cashes in on the war in the Middle East, boosting crude flows amid soaring prices and eased sanctions. A surge in both the prices of Russia’s export grades and the level of shipments drove a second big jump in weekly income, lifting it to the highest since March 2022, shortly after Moscow’s troops poured into Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 03.24.26)
Rep. Gregory Meeks of New York, the top House Democrat on foreign policy, and Rep. Don Bacon from Nebraska sent a bipartisan letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Secretary of State Marco Rubio pressing for details on steps taken by the Trump administration to allow more Russian oil shipments to reach global markets despite existing sanctions, warning the decision could undercut U.S. national security. They said allowing those cargoes to be sold globally has already enabled Russia to generate "billions in additional fossil fuel revenue," calling it a badly timed boost for Putin. (RFE/RL, 03.24.26)
The European Union on March 24 postponed the unveiling of a law that would permanently ban Russian oil imports, coming amid supply disruptions caused by the war in the Middle East. The April 15 unveiling date has reportedly been removed from the European Commission’s REPowerEU roadmap calendar. EU Commission energy spokeswoman Anna-Kaisa Itkonen said a new date has not yet been determined, but stressed that Brussels remains “committed to making this proposal.” (MT/AFP, 03.24.26)
An oil tanker previously reported to be carrying Russian crude arrived at a port in the Philippines on Monday, coming days after the government in Manila said it was considering purchasing oil from Russia amid the global energy crunch. Ship tracking data showed that the Sierra Leone-flagged tanker, Sara Sky, reached the Limay anchorage in Manila Bay on Monday afternoon. It would mark the first time in five years that the Philippines purchased Russian oil. (MT/AFP, 03.24.26)
Ferrying an estimated 730,000 barrels of crude oil across the Atlantic, the Anatoly Kolodkin tanker is flying a Russian flag. A Russian warship escorted it through the English Channel, where it was tracked by the Royal Navy for 48 hours, only to turn back as soon as the tanker was clear. While the Kremlin declined to confirm reports of Russian oil heading to Cuba, it also has made little effort to conceal its hand. That’s because the tanker was never really about Cuba at all, people close to the White House, former ambassadors and Russia observers told POLITICO. It’s a message, they said—a negotiating chit, a provocation designed to force a disproportionate American response while Washington is consumed elsewhere. (Politico, 03.24.26)

Wednesday, March 25, 2026

At least 40% of Russia's oil export capacity is at a halt following Ukrainian drone attacks, a disputed attack on a major pipeline and the seizure of tankers, according to Reuters calculations based ‌on market data. (Reuters, 03.25.26)
Some 18 tankers, carrying about 13.5 million barrels of Russian crude, east of Suez are likely available for purchase, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s down from 25 vessels holding about 19 million barrels nearly two weeks ago, when the waiver was broadened. The decline comes even as additional cargoes have entered the region after leaving the Suez Canal. (Bloomberg, 03.25.26)
Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev confirmed Wednesday that Russia is sending “humanitarian” shipments of oil to Cuba after ship-tracking data earlier appeared to show that at least one tanker had unloaded Russian crude in Havana. Cuba, which imports around 60% of its energy supply, previously relied on oil sold by Venezuela. (MT/AFP, 03.25.26)

Thursday, March 26, 2026

Russian oil is now selling at either no discount or even a premium as governments scramble to replace energy supplies lost after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said March 26. (MT/AFP, 03.26.26)
The U.K. will interdict and board Russian “shadow fleet” vessels in its waters, increasing European pressure on Moscow over tankers exporting sanctioned crude in transactions that help fund the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s office said the move aims to deliver a blow to Putin, who is using the fleet to generate revenue to support the attacks on its neighbor. (Bloomberg, 03.26.26)
A Turkish-operated tanker filled with Russian oil was targeted by a suspected sea-drone attack in the Black Sea early March 26, Turkey’s Transport Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu said. The Altura, a foreign-flagged vessel operated by a Turkish company, suffered engine damage following a blast after midnight that severely shook the ship bridge and disabled equipment there, Turkey’s Directorate General for Maritime Affairs told Bloomberg. There were no casualties among the 27-person crew and no oil spilled, the authority added. (Bloomberg, 03.26.26)

Friday, March 27, 2026

Russia’s government has decided to ban gasoline exports from April 1, with Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak instructing the Energy Ministry to draft the necessary decree. The cabinet says the move aims to stabilize fuel prices and ensure priority supplies for the domestic market. Analysts cited by Kommersant argue the measure may only slow further price increases rather than significantly reduce them. (Meduza, 03.27.26)
India is moving to deepen energy ties with Russia despite years of U.S. pressure, with officials agreeing to prepare the resumption of Russian LNG sales and to boost Russian crude to at least 40% of India’s oil imports, Reuters reports. Indian refiners bought nearly $44 billion of discounted Russian crude last year, and New Delhi is now seeking a U.S. sanctions waiver for LNG as the Iran war chokes Gulf supplies and makes Russian routes more attractive. Moscow meanwhile is expanding rupee‑ruble trade and eyeing entry into India’s power‑transmission sector. (Reuters, 03.27.26)
A Russian tanker carrying about 730,000 barrels of crude oil and apparently bound for Cuba is testing President Trump’s bid to “choke off” the island’s energy supplies and pressure Havana over hosting Russian and Chinese spy facilities. The shipment could power Cuba for weeks and may signal Moscow’s determination to sustain its ally and preserve the reopened Lourdes signals‑intelligence base near Havana, which places Russian eavesdropping roughly 200 miles from key U.S. military sites in Florida. (New York Times, 03.27.26)

Climate change:

No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

U.S. and Russian legislators met in Washington D.C. for talks organized by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, a conservative Republican from Florida who has advocated rapprochement with Moscow and co‑sponsored a bill to end U.S. military aid to Ukraine. Luna said it was imperative that “the world’s two greatest nuclear superpowers” maintain “open dialogue, ideas and open lines of communication.” Russian accounts say the delegation included senior MPs Vyacheslav Nikonov and Svetlana Zhurova. Zhurova later said Ukraine was the “most prominent” topic, followed by disputes over seized Russian diplomatic properties and visas. The Kremlin said it welcomed “any efforts to revive dialogue with the United States,” and Ukrainian outlet Ukrainska Pravda noted the State Department approved the visit in January, with analysts warning it risks feeding Kremlin narratives about U.S. division and “war fatigue” as formal U.S.‑mediated talks on ending Russia’s war remain frozen.⁴ (RM, 03.27.26)
Russian investigative outlet IStories writes that Lana (Svetlana) Pozhidaeva—now Sofia Platt, a former MGIMO graduate and daughter of an ex–GRU‑linked FSB officer—was not only a victim but an alleged paid recruiter in Jeffrey Epstein’s network, sourcing at least 18 young women from Russia and Ukraine while her family’s fortunes in Russian state corporations and Iran‑related projects rose. Pozhidaeva denies ties to Russian authorities and now brands herself a trafficking victim. (IStories, 03.21.26)
Robert S. Mueller III, who led the Federal Bureau of Investigation for 12 tumultuous years, brought politically explosive indictments as a special counsel examining Russia’s attack on the 2016 presidential election, and then concluded that he could neither absolve nor accuse President Donald Trump of a crime, died on March 20. He was 81. (New York Times, 03.21.26)

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

The Levada Center says Russian families’ main goal remains to “live no worse than most” in their town (48%), while 33% aim to live better and 11% orient themselves to Western living standards; 8% say their priority is simply to “survive, even at a primitive level,” up from a recent low of 5%. Half cite low incomes as a major difficulty, alongside poor health, fatigue, everyday hardships, lack of free time, and fear of losing their job. (Levada Center, 03.19.26)

Monday, March 23, 2026

Russia’s central bank gold reserves fell to 74.3 million troy ounces in February 2026, the lowest level since March 2022, after two consecutive monthly declines totaling about 500,000 ounces, according to regulator data cited by state media. Such reductions are usually linked to minting bullion coins, but agencies note cuts of this scale haven’t occurred since comparable data began in 2015. The drop comes as global gold prices have swung sharply amid the Iran war, falling from a late‑January record above $5,000 per ounce to around $4,100. (Meduza, 03.23.26)
A Moscow court has declared venture investor Alexander Galitsky and his fund Almaz Capital Partners an “extremist association,” banning their activities in Russia and ordering the seizure of domestic assets worth about 8 billion rubles, including Moscow real estate and bank accounts. Prosecutors allege the fund sent over $50 million to Ukrainian arms‑related firms, which Galitsky denies, saying Almaz has invested only in civilian projects and he has not managed the fund since 2022. (Meduza, 03.23.26)
Russia’s steel industry has become a new economic weak spot as slowing domestic demand, high interest rates and sanctions-driven export limits push major producers to idle capacity. Magnitogorsk Iron & Steel Works is operating at about 60% of capacity, mothballing assets and cutting management jobs, while other groups like TMK, Mechel and OMK are also scaling back. Analysts warn that without targeted state support, the sector risks sliding back to early‑2000s conditions. (Bloomberg, 03.23.26)

Tuesday, March 24, 2026

Russia is delaying a decision aimed at reducing its dependence on energy income as oil prices surge on the back of the war in the Middle East. An adjustment to the country’s budget rule—which sets the oil-price threshold for tapping reserves in the National Wellbeing Fund—has been postponed, along with sales of the fund’s assets to finance the deficit, according to two people familiar with the discussions, who asked not to be identified because the talks aren’t public. (Bloomberg, 03.24.26)
Russia has temporarily suspended exports of ammonium nitrate, further tightening the global supply of crop nutrients already strained by the Iran war. The Agriculture Ministry has paused exports from March 21 to April 21, TASS newswire reported, citing a government statement. Supplies under intergovernmental agreements are exempt. (Bloomberg, 03.24.26)
Russia’s Bureau 1440 space company launched 16 broadband Internet satellites, marking an early operational step in a low-Earth orbit network that Russian officials have cast as a domestic version of SpaceX’s Starlink. The satellites were launched at 8:24 p.m. on Monday and are now under the direction of the company’s mission control center after reaching their reference orbit, Bureau 1440 said in a Telegram statement. (Bloomberg, 03.24.26)
Lawmakers in Russia’s lower-house State Duma on March 24 passed a bill that would make it a criminal offense to deny what authorities describe as the “genocide of Soviet people” during World War II. State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin said the legislation was needed to “protect historical memory” at a time when “Western politicians are trying to rewrite history.” (MT/AFP, 03.24.26)
A judge in St. Petersburg has sentenced exiled rapper Oxxxymiron to 320 hours of community service in absentia after he was found guilty of violating Russia’s “foreign agent” law, the news outlet Mediazona reported March 24. Oxxxymiron, whose real name is Miron Fyodorov, is an outspoken critic of Putin and the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. He left Russia in 2022. (MT/AFP, 03.24.26)

Wednesday, March 25, 2026

Russia’s Federal Anti-Monopoly Service (FAS) said March 25 that it will introduce a grace period through the end of the year for a ban on advertising on Telegram and YouTube, coming after members of parliament asked the agency to clarify enforcement of the surprise ban. (MT/AFP, 03.25.26)
New polling collated by Re:Russia shows Russian television’s political influence has eroded sharply during the prolonged, inconclusive war in Ukraine. The share of people naming TV as their main news source fell from ~60% in 2022 to 47% by March 2026, while those who never watch TV or don’t own one rose to 33%. Trust in TV has dropped to about 31%, and among 18–30‑year‑olds only 16% view television as their main source. Researchers conclude that the Kremlin’s once‑dominant propaganda tool has lost much of its effectiveness, especially with younger Russians. (Re:Russia, 03.25.26)

Thursday, March 26, 2026

At a closed meeting with top business leaders after the RSPP congress, Putin told oligarchs Russia would “keep fighting” until it reaches the Donbas borders and urged them to make “voluntary” contributions to the budget to help finance the war, The Bell reports. The idea, said to come from Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin, envisages war bonds; billionaire Suleiman Kerimov reportedly pledged 100 billion rubles on the spot, and at least one other major tycoon voiced support. (The Bell, 03.27.26)
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on March 27 denied reports that Putin asked leading Russian businessmen to make large financial contributions to the state budget to help fund the war against Ukraine. Instead, Peskov said, an unidentified businessman proposed the idea during a private gathering attended by Putin on Thursday, which took place alongside the annual congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, a pro-Kremlin business lobby. (MT/AFP, 03.27.26)
Russia’s Interior Ministry said March 26 that anyone involved in unsanctioned protests against tightening internet restrictions would be held criminally responsible, a warning that comes after cryptic videos circulating online called for nationwide rallies this coming weekend. (MT/AFP, 03.26.26)
A judge in the Ural Mountains city of Chelyabinsk has banned the Oscar-winning documentary film “Mr. Nobody Against Putin” from being distributed in Russia after prosecutors argued that it negatively portrays the country, the exiled news outlet Mediazona reported Thursday. (MT/AFP, 03.26.26)
A nationwide Levada Center poll conducted March 18–26, 2026 found 61% of Russians say the country is moving in the “right direction,” down 13 points since March 2025, while 26% now believe it is on the wrong path (+10 points). Approval of Putin’s performance is at 80% but has fallen 7 points over the past six months; 15% now say they do not approve of his work as president. (Levada Center, 03.26.26)

Friday, March 27, 2026

Russia is abandoning plans for a sharp downgrade to its 2026 growth forecast as the war in Iran boosts its oil revenue. The Economy Ministry is now unlikely to significantly revise its projected 1.3% expansion in gross domestic product when it updates its macroeconomic outlook in April, according to three people familiar with the discussions. (Bloomberg, 03.27.26)
The Economist reports that Russia’s security services have begun blocking mobile internet in Moscow and St Petersburg, creating what residents describe as a “digital black hole” and disrupting daily life and business to the tune of up to 1 billion rubles ($12m) a day, as the Kremlin tests a more comprehensive firewall that could disconnect Russia from the global internet and allow access only to approved sites. (The Economist, 03.27.26)
Independent outlet Faridaily reports that Putin’s public activity has dropped by about 25% in early 2026. Kremlin records show he took part in 54 public meetings and events in the first three months of 2026, compared with 71 in the same period of 2025 and 107 in 2024, when he was campaigning for re-election. The reasons are unclear; a source close to the Kremlin quipped that in an authoritarian system “no one owes anyone an explanation.” (Meduza, 03.27.26)
Russia’s state pollster VTsIOM recorded Putin’s lowest job‑approval rating since the full‑scale invasion of Ukraine began, at 70.1% between March 19–22, down 1.9 points from the previous week. Trust in Putin fell to 75%, while approval for Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin dropped to 55% and support for ruling party United Russia to 29.3%. Meduza notes discontent over Telegram blocks, mobile‑internet shutdowns, rising prices and war fatigue are all weighing on public sentiment. (Meduza, 03.27.26)

Defense and aerospace:

Russian Security Council deputy chair Dmitry Medvedev said Russia sees “no need” for a new wave of mobilization, claiming contract and volunteer recruitment is sufficient. He said over 400,000 volunteers signed contracts in 2025 and more than 80,000 have already done so in 2026, while the Defense Ministry plans to staff the new Unmanned Systems Forces with nearly 79,000 personnel by the end of next year. (Meduza, 03.27.26)
Russian Deputy Chief of the General Staff Lt. Gen. Anatoly Kontsevoy claimed on March 24 that Russia plans to train over 70,000 drone operators in 2026. (ISW, 03.25.26)
Russia launched an uncrewed cargo spacecraft toward the International Space Station on Sunday after recent repairs to the Baikonur Cosmodrome launch site, NASA said. The Progress MS-33 transport ship separated successfully from the third stage of its Soyuz-2.1a launch vehicle after blasting off from Baikonur in Kazakhstan, Russia’s Roscosmos Space Agency said on Telegram. (Bloomberg, 03.22.26)
An intermediary company closely linked to sanctioned Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska has been funding bounties for Russian soldiers who destroy or capture Ukrainian military equipment, IStories reports. The firm, ASK—long a key conduit between Rusal’s aluminum plants and defense contractors—transferred at least 90 million rubles in 2024 to the “Zabota Sibiri” (“Care of Siberia”) foundation. (IStories, 03.24.26)
See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

Former Kursk region Gov. Alexei Smirnov testified against his late predecessor Roman Starovoit in court this week and entered into a plea bargain with state prosecutors, marking the latest development in a years-long corruption saga involving border defense construction projects. (MT/AFP, 03.27.26)
Czech police said March 27 that they were investigating a firebomb attack on a Russian culture center in Prague. "Since yesterday evening, we have been investigating an attack in which someone threw several Molotov cocktails at the Russian House," the police said in a statement on X. (MT/AFP, 03.27.26)

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

Saturday, March 21, 2026

In the run-up to Hungary’s pivotal election in April, a unit of Russia’s foreign intelligence service last month began sounding the alarm over plummeting public support for Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whose friendly ties to Moscow have long given the Kremlin a strategic foothold inside NATO and the European Union. In an internal report for the SVR obtained and authenticated by a European intelligence service and reviewed by The Washington Post, the operatives proposed a way to “fundamentally alter the entire paradigm of the election campaign”—“the staging of an assassination attempt on Viktor Orban.” (The Washington Post, 03.21.26)
Former Chelsea director Marina Granovskaia, long seen as Roman Abramovich’s chief lieutenant at the club, would face scrutiny from English soccer authorities if she returns as a licensed agent after the Premier League found extensive off‑the‑books payments under Abramovich’s ownership. A three‑year probe uncovered about $66 million in secret payments to players, agents and third parties, leading to a record $14 million fine for Chelsea; the FA, which is running its own case, could investigate Granovskaia’s role and impose bans or other sanctions. (New York Times, 03.21.26)

Monday, March 23, 2026

The Trump administration is considering inviting Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko—Putin’s closest ally in Europe—to the White House or Mar‑a‑Lago as part of a diplomatic thaw, special envoy John Coale told the Financial Times. Since Trump’s return, Washington has traded sanctions relief for the release of some 500 political prisoners and lifted curbs on key Belarusian potash and finance entities. An invitation would be a major prestige boost for Lukashenko, long isolated over his 2020 crackdown and support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (Financial Times, 03.23.26

Tuesday, March 24, 2026

Vietnam and Russia signed an agreement on the construction of the Southeast Asian nation’s first nuclear power plant as Hanoi moves to bolster energy security amid Middle East disruptions that are disrupting global fuel supplies. The agreement was signed during Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh’s visit to Russia, according to a statement on the government’s website, which did not specify when construction will begin. During the trip, Russia’s largest LNG producer Novatek also signed a preliminary deal to supply Vietnam, news website Tass reported Monday. (Bloomberg, 03.24.26)

Wednesday, March 25, 2026

Vietnamese Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính met with Putin on March 25 at the Kremlin to discuss deepening economic and energy ties between the two countries. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Wednesday described recent cooperation with Vietnam as “very productive” and “multifaceted.” During his visit, Chính also met with his Russian counterpart, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, lawmakers and business leaders, including executives from the conglomerate AFK Sistema, according to Vietnamese state media. Putin also accepted an invitation to visit Vietnam this year. (MT/AFP, 03.25.26, Bloomberg, 03.25.26)

Friday, March 27, 2026

The Financial Times reports that sanctioned Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska has asked London’s High Court to compel CT Solutions & Private Advisory, the intelligence arm of Sir Lynton Crosby’s CT Group, to reveal the source of an allegedly forged valuation report used in litigation with former deputy finance minister Vladimir Chernukhin. (Financial Times, 03.27.26)
Investigative outlet iStories reports that Noah Krieger (born Murad Dadaev), a functionary of Germany’s far‑right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, has been in Chechnya since at least March 10, meeting senior officials including Deputy Prime Minister and information minister Akhmed Dudaev. According to his Instagram posts, Krieger‑Dadaev presented Chechen officials with a “trophy” Luftwaffe dagger from Nazi Germany bearing a swastika, an item collectors value at 500,000–1,000,000 rubles. (iStories, 03.27.26)

Ukraine:

Friday, March 20, 2026

Ukrainian officials told The Times they cannot hold free and fair national elections while active hostilities continue, citing risks of Russian strikes on polling places and restrictions under martial law. Deputy CEC head Serhiy Dubovyk said all political forces agree fighting must stop, a clear front line be established, and at least six months pass before a vote. ISW notes Moscow is exploiting the issue by demanding elections as a precondition for peace while refusing a ceasefire, then branding Zelenskyy illegitimate to undermine any future deal. (ISW, 03.20.26)

Saturday, March 21, 2026

Patriarch Filaret, an Orthodox Christian leader who was a driving force behind the establishment of an independent Ukrainian church and became a symbol of defiance toward Russia, died on March 20. He was 97. (New York Times, 03.21.26)

Tuesday, March 24, 2026

The Ukrainian parliament has delayed some of Zelenskyy’s policies, in a widening political spat that jeopardizes reforms tied to financial aid from the IMF and EU. The Rada has balked at the president’s methods, citing a lack of consultation and in some cases an unwillingness to put forward draft bills when enacting policy. For his part, Zelenskyy threatened those unwilling to “serve in the parliament” to “serve at the front” instead. The stalled measures include IMF requests such as introducing VAT for small entrepreneurs and a levy on parcels sent from abroad. The fund last week began a staff visit to assess Ukraine’s macroeconomic policy and structural reforms required for a recently approved $8.1bn four-year loan. (Financial Times, 03.24.26)
The Lutsk City Council voted on March 25 to terminate Mayor Ihor Polishchuk's tenure, according to Suspilne, with 38 council members supporting the measure. Polishchuk said his choice to resign was “absolutely not related” to an investigation by Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU), and declined to elaborate on his reasons for stepping down. In mid-December 2025, NABU reported that it had recorded members of the regional and city councils in Lutsk Oblast receiving bribes totaling $30,000 related to land development for apartment buildings. Polishchuk was not specifically mentioned. (Kyiv Independent, 03.24.26
A woman was killed and her son remains missing after an explosion tore through an apartment building in the capital of annexed Crimea on Monday night, Russian-installed authorities said. Mikhail Razvozhayev, the governor of the port city of Sevastopol, said Tuesday that law enforcement authorities were still working to determine the cause of the blast but did not believe a gas leak was to blame. Twelve people, including three children, were hospitalized. (MT/AFP, 03.24.26)

Wednesday, March 25, 2026

Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal said on March 25 that Ukraine needs $91 billion to restore its energy system over the next decade. Shmyhal said the figure comes from World Bank data and called for more private investments in the energy sector—namely “battery energy storage systems (BESS), renewable energy, gas generation, development of local energy networks, gas production, oil and gas infrastructure.” (Kyiv Post, 03.25.26)
The European Central Bank has warned that Hungary’s seizure of a cash transport en route from Austria to Ukraine risks undermining trust in the euro. Ukraine’s central bank (NBU) raised the issue with the ECB after Hungarian authorities earlier this month stopped the vehicles and confiscated $40 million, €35 million and 9 kilograms of gold. The shipment was being carried out in compliance with international customs rules under a contract between Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank International and Ukraine’s state-owned Oschadbank, the NBU said. (Financial Times, 03.25.26)
The fifth President of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, said that corruption and incompetence of the current government have caused a crisis in public administration. He said this on the air of a TV channel. According to him, the government has turned the state into a system of corruption schemes. International reports confirm that Ukraine loses billions of dollars every year due to corruption. (Newsky.com.ua, 03.25.26)
Ukraine’s parliament adopted a new law on Wednesday to revamp military education in schools and universities as the country braces for a prolonged war against Russia’s invasion. The bill, numbered 13347, introduces a course called “Fundamentals of National Resistance” for university and college students and replaces existing basic military training. (Kyiv Post, 03.25.26)

Thursday, March 26, 2026

Zelenskyy arrived in Saudi Arabia for a previously undisclosed visit on March 26, where he was met by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman. “Arrived in Saudi Arabia. Important meetings are scheduled. We appreciate the support and support those who are ready to work with us to ensure security,” he wrote simply on X. Citing an anonymous senior official, AFP reported later on Thursday that Ukraine and Saudi Arabia plan to sign an agreement on “security cooperation—in particular, the protection of the skies.” (Kyiv Post, 03.26.26)

Friday, March 27, 2026

Mykhaylo Poplavskyi among the suspects in a scheme to embezzle budget funds uncovered at the Kyiv University of Culture. The investigation established that university officials together with representatives of the Ministry of Education and Science inflated the number of students and staff employees in order to receive more budget allocations. This concerns a state program worth about 760 million UAH (2022–2023). Over 20 searches were conducted, computer equipment and documents were seized. The investigation continues. (Antikor, 03.27.26)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

Friday, March 20, 2026

Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko touted talks with U.S. envoy John Coale on a “big deal” that could include selling a mine to the U.S. for at least $3 billion, while emphasizing Minsk’s close ties with Russia, China and growing defense‑industrial cooperation with Iran. He denied discussing missile sales to Tehran but admitted broad DIB talks. ISW assesses any U.S. economic support to heavily integrated Belarus will inevitably benefit Russia’s war effort and help both Moscow and Tehran evade sanctions. (ISW, 03.20.26)

Monday, March 23, 2026

The number of foreigners receiving Russian citizenship fell to 152,400 in 2025, down 27% from 2024 and almost 80% below the 735,000 recorded in 2021, extending a sharp post‑invasion decline, Interior Ministry data show. Temporary and permanent residence permits also dropped by about 30% and 27% respectively, even as the number of formally employed foreign workers rose, reflecting tighter migration controls amid a deepening demographic crisis and continuing reliance on migrant labor. (MT/AFP, 03.23.26)
Poland reported finding five balloons and ten foil‑wrapped packages in fields in Podlaskie, near the Belarusian border, incidents ISW links to a pattern of Belarus‑launched balloon incursions since late 2025. ISW assesses Russia, which has de facto annexed Belarus, is using such airspace violations over NATO states as part of a “Phase Zero” campaign—informational and psychological conditioning for a possible future conflict with the alliance. (ISW, 03.22.26)

Tuesday, March 24, 2026

The Moldovan government said March 24 that a key power line connecting it with Europe was damaged following overnight Russian strikes in Ukraine and urged its citizens to consume less electricity during peak hours. (MT/AFP, 03.24.26)
Longtime rivals Armenia and Azerbaijan are increasing trade in ways that analysts say could support peace-building, ease Armenia's longstanding blockade, and gradually weaken Russia's role in the region as Moscow remains preoccupied with its war in Ukraine. Azerbaijan has begun exporting energy products to Yerevan and is serving as a transit route for wheat from Kazakhstan and Russia. Armenian officials, meanwhile, say they are finalizing a list of industrial and agricultural goods for export to Azerbaijan. (RFE/RL, 03.24.26)

Thursday, March 26, 2026

Lukashenko gifted Kim Jong Un an automatic rifle during his maiden visit to Pyongyang, joking that the North Korean leader may need it “in case enemies appear”, state media said Thursday. The two leaders signed a “friendship and cooperation” treaty on March 26 after Kim gave a lavish welcome to Lukashenko, declaring the two countries were now “entering a new phase.” (Kyiv Post, 03.26.26)

Friday, March 27, 2026

Lukashenko and North Korean ruler Kim Jong Un signed a “friendship and cooperation” treaty in Pyongyang, signaling closer alignment among two key Russian allies confronting the West. Minsk, which hosts Russian tactical nuclear weapons and enabled Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and Pyongyang, which has sent troops and weapons to Russia, pledged deeper cooperation across sectors including education, health care, agriculture and more. The move fits Kim’s push for an “anti‑West alliance” and a multipolar order, even as Lukashenko also seeks better ties with the Trump administration after U.S. easing of some Belarus‑linked sanctions. (AP/Washington Post, 03.27.26)

IV. Quotable and notable

“A couple of the leaders in Europe said that [Iran] was not Europe's war,” Rubio said of the Iran conflict. “Well, Ukraine is not America's war, and yet we've contributed more to that fight than any other country in the world.” (Wall Street Journal, 03.26.26)
When asked [on Vladimir Putin] “What kind of man is he?” Fiona Hill—who serves on the Harvard University Board of Overseers—said: “I think over time, he’s become more and more isolated. And I think that the kind of person we’re dealing with now is someone who lives in a bubble. You know and who’s own judgments are very much affected by what they think about themselves in terms of the confidence they have in their own actions… And I think that the version of Putin that we have now has become a darker version of the person that he was before. And a narrower, smaller version… But because he has become so much more confined within himself and a very small, probably shrinking circle of people around him. And that you know is very dangerous. Because an earlier version of Putin might have been more pragmatic, might have had more information…” (TV Rain Newsroom, 03.25.26)

Endnotes

According to DeepState, the Russian armed forces advanced near Fedorivka, Druha and Kleban-Byk while the Ukrainian Defense Forces pushed back the enemy near Berezove on March 17. On March 18, the Russian troops advanced near Oleksandohrad and Huliaypole. On March 19, the Russian forces advanced in Riznykivka, near Pokrovsk and Novomarkove. On March 20, the Russian forces occupied Platonivka and advanced near Riznykivka, Zakitne and in the village itself. On March 21, the Russian armed forces advanced in Minkivka and near Fedorivka Druha. On March 22, the Russian forces advanced in Vovchansk, Synkivka and near Zaliznyanske. On March 23, the Russian armed forces advanced near Zaliznychne and on March 24, the Russian armed forces advanced near Ambarne.
The Luhansk Oblast and Donetsk Oblast together constitute the Donbas. Almost all of Luhansk Oblast (99.8% of its total area of 10,303 square miles), has been captured by Russia, according to ISW data analyzed by RM for its latest Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In contrast, Russia controls some 80.5% of Donetsk Oblast’s total area of 10,238 square miles, according to the card. Thus some 2,017 square miles still controlled by Ukraine in the Donbas, according to ISW data analyzed by RM.
Sources used: New York Times, 03.26.26, Ukrainska Pravda, 03.27.26, MT/AFP, 03.27.26, Ukrainska Pravda, 03.27.26, MT/AFP, 03.25.26, New York Times, 03.26.26, New York Times, 03.26.26.
Ibid.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

AI was used in production of this digest.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo: Port of Bandar Anzali, shared on Wikicommons.

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Russia in Review, March 20–27, 2026

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Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

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