5 Things to Know

1. Donald Trump’s revelation that he persuaded Vladimir Putin to pause strikes on Kyiv, if not other major Ukrainian cities, during “extraordinary cold” in Ukraine demonstrates that the U.S. leader remains personally involved in his team’s efforts to mediate a ceasefire that could have tangible humanitarian impact, even if a comprehensive political solution to the war remains elusive. The Kremlin’s confirmation of a halt on attacks on the Ukrainian capital (but not other cities) until Feb. 1, and a reportedly quiet night in Kyiv on Jan. 29–30, suggest a tactical pause rather than a broader de-escalation by Putin, whose negotiators are to meet their Ukrainian counterparts in Abu Dabi on Feb. 1 for what would be a first bilateral negotiation in some time.¹ Meanwhile, Ukraine’s largest energy provider DTEK said Russian attacks have cost his company 60–70% of its generation capacity with Ukrainians receiving only 3–4 hours of power per day as temperatures plummeted to –20°C (–4°F) outside.
2. RM’s analysis of ISW data for the past four weeks (Dec. 30, 2025–Jan. 27, 2026) indicates that Russian forces gained 106 square miles of Ukrainian territory in that period. That constitutes a decrease over the 117 square miles it gained over the previous four-week period (Dec. 2–Dec. 30, 2025), according to the Jan. 28, 2026, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. This week has seen the Russian forces capture Orikhovo-Vasylivka in the Donetsk Oblast and Zlahoda in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
3. Ukraine’s recent setbacks around Huliaipole in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast highlight the central challenge facing the Ukrainian Army: a lack of troops to defend every sector equally, creating gaps where Moscow’s forces can advance more easily, according to The New York Times. Russian units often outnumber Ukrainian ones by up to 10:1 in some sectors, according to The Wall Street Journal. The personnel shortages have become so acute that some Ukrainian officers describe battalions that should field 500 soldiers but are “lucky” to have 100, of whom maybe 50 are combat‑ready, amid draft‑dodging, desertion and exhaustion, according to NYT. Incoming Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov recently said about 2 million Ukrainians are dodging the draft and more than 200,000 soldiers have deserted—roughly one‑fifth of the armed forces, according to WSJ.
4. A new CSIS report estimates that between February 2022 and December 2025 Russia has suffered about 1.2 million military casualties in Ukraine (killed, wounded and missing), including 275,000–325,000 killed, while Ukraine has incurred an estimated 500,000–600,000 military casualties and 100,000–140,000 fatalities. At current rates, CSIS warns combined losses could reach 2 million by spring 2026. Exiled Russian media outlet Meduza says the CSIS range for Russian fatalities broadly aligns with its and Media Zona’s name‑based counts of roughly 300,000 Russian soldiers killed by the end of 2025. However, Meduza stresses that many wounded later return to combat, so it avoids publishing a single “total losses” figure that merges irreversible deaths with temporary “sanitary” losses.
5. Trump faces a looming decision on whether to accept Putin’s offer of a one-year informal extension of New START, which expires Feb. 5, 2026, potentially leaving the U.S. and Russia without a binding arms control pact for the first time in over 50 years. Meanwhile, Putin’s Security Council chair Dmitry Medvedev is leveraging the imminent expiry of New START to push Washington to normalize bilateral relations and accept Putin’s offer of an informal one‑year extension, warning of wider nuclear proliferation and touting new Russian systems like Burevestnik, Oreshnik and Poseidon. In addition, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov warns that allowing the New START treaty to expire will create a serious gap in the legal framework of strategic stability, harming not only Russia and the United States, but also global security.² For clues from Russian views on why Russia is interested in extending New START, see these commentaries: 1, 2, 3 and 4.*

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• An emergency IAEA board session in Vienna warned of “significant and increasing” nuclear safety risks in Ukraine as repeated Russian strikes on the power grid force all three operating nuclear plants to reduce output and threaten loss of off‑site power to 10 critical substations feeding reactor safety systems, with EU states demanding a detailed vulnerability assessment next month and Director-General Rafael Grossi stressing that any damage to this infrastructure “undermines nuclear safety.” (Bloomberg, 01.30.26)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin met in the Kremlin with Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, a previously unannounced visit confirmed by Dmitry Peskov. Flight trackers had recorded an Iranian government jet landing in Moscow hours earlier. The talks came amid U.S. military buildups near Iran, satellite evidence of Iran fortifying a nuclear site in Isfahan, and President Donald Trump’s threats of a possible strike. (iStories, 01.30.26)
• The Kremlin said Jan. 29 that it believes there is still room for negotiations between Iran and the United States after U.S. President Donald Trump warned that new military strikes against the Islamic republic were possible. “It is clear that the potential for negotiations is not exhausted,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. (MT/AFP, 01.29.26)
• Iran is now better prepared for a possible attack than it was in summer 2025, Russia’s U.N. envoy Vasily Nebenzya said in a Rossiya-24 interview, calling the situation “alarming” and warning that a strike on Iran “could be launched.” He urged the United States to “measure twice and cut none,” recalling earlier U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025. (TASS, 01.30.26)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

Friday, Jan. 23, 2026

• A draft 10‑year “prosperity package” circulated by the EU and U.S. would fast‑track Ukraine’s EU membership and mobilize large-scale reconstruction and investment, but ISW stresses that even robust economic support cannot substitute for hard security guarantees: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says a main U.S.–Ukraine security treaty is ready for signature and will be ratified by the Verkhovna Rada and U.S. Congress, while the EU finalizes its own guarantees, all of which Moscow currently rejects. (ISW, 01.23.26)

Saturday, Jan. 24, 2026

• ISW cited Human Rights Watch and OSCE findings that Russia has taken at least 13,500 Ukrainian soldiers prisoner since February 2022, with 6,000–10,000 still in detention across at least 222 sites, and is systematically torturing, sexually abusing, starving, and overcrowding POWs — while also sharply increasing frontline executions since late 2024 — as part of a broader military modus operandi that deliberately ignores protections for hors de combat personnel under international law. (ISW, 01.24.26)
• DTEK chief Maksym Timchenko said Russia’s intensified Fall 2025–Winter 2025‑26 campaign against energy infrastructure has slashed the company’s generation capacity by 60–70% and inflicted an estimated $64–70 billion in damage, as temperatures hover between –15°C and –20°C and rolling blackouts leave many Ukrainians with only 3–4 hours of power per day, which ISW assesses is part of a Russian effort to split Ukraine’s grid into isolated “energy islands” and erode both energy security and civilian morale. (ISW, 01.24.26) 

Monday, Jan. 26, 2026

• Shifts from tank‑centric to drone‑centric tactics mean fighting now continues at roughly the same pace year‑round, regardless of mud, snow, or frozen ground. Because tanks and armored vehicles are easily spotted and targeted by drones, Russia increasingly sends small groups of soldiers on foot or motorcycles to infiltrate Ukrainian lines. (New York Times, 01.26.26)

Tuesday, Jan. 27, 2026

• The European Union and the United States have sketched out a "prosperity framework" for Ukraine designed to provide Kyiv with financial assurances along with security guarantees to stabilize Ukraine after the war with Russia ends. The 18-page document, seen by RFE/RL, says that while $800 billion could be mobilized for Ukraine through 2040, the immediate aim is to meet the country's need for some $500 billion in reconstruction over the next decade. The EU, the United States and international financial institutions -- including the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank -- would participate in the initial phase, providing $317 billion for reconstruction, $57 billion for private housing, and some $126 billion for the construction of both public and private buildings. (RFE/RL, 01.27.26)

Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2026

• Ukraine’s Prosecutor General said Russian drone operators deliberately killed a 54‑year‑old man and his 52‑year‑old wife as they tried to evacuate on foot from the border village of Hrabovske in Sumy Oblast on Jan. 27, publishing video showing the couple walking along a snowy field road with the man pulling a sled before both are later seen lying dead beside a blast crater; regional prosecutors have opened a pre‑trial investigation into a war crime resulting in death. (Mediazona, 01.27.26)
• A Washington Post investigation details how Russian intelligence is recruiting vulnerable Ukrainian teens and young adults via Telegram “job” offers to carry out sabotage and bombing attempts for a few thousand dollars, with Ukraine’s SBU saying it has linked about 1,400 such operations to Russian services over the past two years — including 800 in 2025, roughly 25% involving suspects under 18 — and estimates it foils about 90% of plots while courts, like the one trying 19‑year‑old “Vika” for terrorism, struggle with a growing docket of cases in which financially desperate youths are coerced into delivering or assembling explosives. (Washington Post, 01.28.26)

Thursday, Jan. 29, 2026

• Russia and Ukraine returned bodies of their soldiers on Jan. 29, marking the first such exchange between the two warring countries this year. Russia transferred the remains of 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers while receiving the bodies of 38 Russian servicemen. (MT/AFP, 01.29.26)
• Ukrainian energy provider DTEK’s CEO says Ukraine has lost about 70% of its generation capacity and many civilians get only 3–4 hours of electricity daily, driving roughly 600,000 people to leave Kyiv, while Russia’s Belgorod region has weeks‑long outages with heating at only 50% capacity and officials warning that a single accurate Ukrainian strike on key substations could plunge the city into a full blackout. (Istories, 01.29.26)
  • The former head of Ukraine’s national electricity company, Ukrenergo, was recently killed by an electric shock as he attempted to repair a substation that had been damaged by a Russian attack. A company statement said 47-year-old Oleksiy Brecht died while “striving to bring light back to people,” amid a brutal campaign against Ukraine’s energy sector that has left up to a million people shivering in subzero temperatures. (RFE/RL, 01.29.26)
• Russia’s intensified strikes on Ukraine’s power grid have left up to 1.2 million properties without electricity in sub‑zero temperatures, repeatedly forcing heavy industry, steel plants (which account with related sectors for 7.2% of GDP and over 15% of exports), construction materials factories, and retail chains to halt operations, while overall war‑related economic losses near $800 billion and the World Bank now forecasts Ukraine’s growth slowing to about 2% in 2025–26 amid mounting risks of “technogenic” accidents, deindustrialization, and the slow depopulation of major cities like Kyiv and Kharkiv. (bne IntelliNews, 01.29.26)
• The European Commission announced €145 million in emergency humanitarian aid for Ukraine as Russian strikes intensify against the power grid, saying funds will go to shelter, food, cash assistance, psychosocial support, water, and medical services, with an additional €8 million for Moldova to support Ukrainian refugees; Brussels also highlighted recent deliveries of 447 reserve generators from EU stocks (including 76 that arrived in Kyiv on Jan. 27), plus hundreds more generators and heaters from Poland and Lithuania. (Ukrainska Pravda / European Pravda, 01.29.26)

Friday, Jan. 30, 2026

• EU rushed an extra €50 million plus 500 generators to Ukraine as U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff claimed Abu Dhabi talks had made “a lot of progress.” (Financial Times, 01.30.26)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• RM’s analysis of ISW data for the past four weeks (Dec. 30, 2025–Jan. 27, 2026) indicates that Russian forces gained 106 square miles of Ukrainian territory in that period, a decrease over the 117 square miles it gained over the previous four-week period (Dec. 2–Dec. 30, 2025), according to the Jan. 28, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (RM, 01.30.26) 

Friday, Jan. 23, 2026

• On Jan. 23, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Predtechyne and Stupochky. (RM, 01.30.26)
• Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov appointed activist and fundraiser Serhiy Sternenko as an adviser on scaling up front‑line drone use, tasking him with systematizing supplies and boosting underperforming units; Sternenko founded Ukraine’s largest non‑state FPV drone supplier in January 2025 and previously survived a Russian intelligence–linked assassination attempt in May 2025. (ISW, 01.23.26)

Saturday, Jan. 24, 2026

• On Jan. 24, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Vasyukivka and Shakhove. (RM, 01.30.26)
• Russia launched a massive combined strike on Ukraine overnight Jan. 23–24, firing more than 370 Shahed‑type and other drones and 21 missiles, including Iskander, Zirkon, and Kh‑22/32 systems. Ukraine’s Air Force says it downed most incoming weapons but confirmed at least two missiles and 18 drones hit 12 locations, leaving nearly 6,000 Kyiv apartment buildings without heat and cutting power to some 1.2 million customers nationwide, including over 800,000 in Kyiv and 400,000‑plus in Chernihiv, while injuring at least 31 people in Kharkiv. (RFE/RL, 01.24.26, ISW, 01.24.26, Bloomberg, 01.24.26)

Sunday, Jan. 25, 2026

• On Jan. 25, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Orikhovo-Vasylivka and in the settlement itself. (RM, 01.30.26)
• Ukraine’s General Staff reported at least 66 combat engagements along the front on Jan. 25 as Russian forces kept pushing west in Donetsk and pressuring Kharkiv, while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reiterated Moscow’s demand that Ukrainian troops withdraw from the remaining roughly 10% of Donbas still under Kyiv’s control. (RFE/RL, 01.25.26)
• Zelenskyy said that in just one week Russian forces had launched more than 1,700 attack drones, over 1,380 guided aerial bombs, and 69 missiles, leaving 1,676 high‑rise buildings in Kyiv without heating after the Jan. 24 strike and forcing some 500,000 residents to evacuate, as he appealed in Vilnius for daily deliveries of air-defense missiles and noted that U.S.-brokered Abu Dhabi talks, while showing no breakthrough, were “constructive” enough for all sides to agree to meet again next week. (Moscow Times, 01.25.26)
• Ukraine’s military said Russia launched more than 100 drones and two missiles in the latest overnight strike on Jan. 25, compounding severe winter blackouts, as Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Lithuania and Poland to seek additional aid and announced that a document on U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine is ready, with Kyiv now waiting only for confirmation of the time and place to sign it. (RFE/RL, 01.25.26)

Monday, Jan. 26, 2026

• On Jan. 26, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Orikhovo-Vasylivka and advanced near Pryvillia, Vasyukivka, Riznykivka and in Minkivka. (RM, 01.30.26)
• Ukrainian officers said winter no longer brings a lull to the front as drones keep combat tempo steady year‑round, with FPV and bomber units flying “around the clock” despite snow that shortens battery life, freezes propellers, and forces improvised fixes like coating blades with meat fat, while recent cold snaps of around –15°C to –20°C, deeper dugouts, and bare trees that expose footprints and heat signatures have turned visibility and drone operability into the main constraints on both sides’ operations rather than tanks’ ability to cross frozen ground. (New York Times, 01.26.26)
• Ukrainian drones stuck a fuel depot in the Russian city of Penza, causing a fire at the facility. Penza is located over 550 km from the border with Ukraine. (Status-6 X Account, 01.26.26)
• The Russians attacked a Ukrainian helicopter base located near the city of Kramitzki in central Ukraine, with Shahed-type long range strikes drones. According to Ukrainian sources, at least one Mil Mi 24 helicopter was destroyed while one Mil Mi 8 helicopter was damaged during this attack. (Status-6 X Account, 01.26.26)

Tuesday, Jan. 27, 2026

• On Jan. 27, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Dronivka, Kleban-Byk and Mala Tokmachka. (RM, 01.30.25)
• Russian air strikes across Ukraine on Jan. 27 killed at least six people and wounded dozens as Moscow launched some 165 drones against cities from Lviv to Kharkiv, concentrating on the southern port of Odesa. Regional chief Oleh Kiper said a large-scale drone attack on Odesa struck energy infrastructure, left one man dead, and injured at least 23 people, including children and a pregnant woman. A couple in their 40s were killed in Slovyansk, and a 58‑year‑old man died at home in Zaporizhzhia. Russian forces also struck a civilian passenger train near Barvinkove, Kharkiv Oblast, on Jan. 27 with three Shahed drones, killing at least five civilians in a carriage carrying 18 of more than 200 passengers, and separately published geolocated footage of Russian FPV drones deliberately killing a 54‑year‑old man and his 52‑year‑old wife as they tried to evacuate from Hrabovske in Sumy Oblast — incidents the institute says likely constitute war crimes given the disproportionate civilian harm and minimal military value. (RFE/RL, 01.27.26, Bloomberg, 01.27.26, MT/AFP, 01.27.26, ISW, 01.27.26, New York Times, 01.28.26)
• Russia’s Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov claimed on Jan. 27 that Russian forces have seized 17 settlements and more than 500 km² since Jan. 1 and reached within 12–14 km of Zaporizhzhia City, but ISW’s geolocated analysis finds only about 265 km² of genuine new Russian presence and front lines still roughly 18 km south of the city; pro‑war Russian milbloggers are openly mocking these “beautiful reports” as a “parallel reality,” noting that forces near Kupyansk‑Vuzlovyi are still several kilometers from the town despite repeated official claims it has been taken and 800 Ukrainian troops encircled. (ISW, 01.27.26)
• CSIS counted 1.2 million Russian military casualties (killed, wounded, and missing) and as many as 325,000 killed between February 2022 and December 2025, according to CSIS’ January 2026 estimate. CSIS also counted 500,000- 600,000 Ukrainian military casualties, including killed, wounded, and missing, and between 100,000 and 140,000 fatalities between February 2022 and December 2025.  At current rates, combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties could reach 2 million by the spring of 2026, according to CSIS. (CSIS, 01.27.26)
  • The Kremlin on Jan. 28 rejected the CSIS estimate “No major power has suffered anywhere near these numbers of casualties or fatalities in any war since World War II,” the study said. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed the findings, saying casualty figures should only be trusted if they come from Russia’s Defense Ministry. “I don’t think such reports can and should be viewed as reliable information,” Peskov told reporters at a daily briefing. (MT/AFP, 01.28.26)
  • The new CSIS report estimates Russia’s total military losses in Ukraine (killed, wounded, and missing) at about 1.2 million by the end of 2025, including 275,000–325,000 killed, figures Meduza and Mediazona say broadly match their own name‑based count of roughly 220,000 Russian soldiers killed by mid‑2025 and about 300,000 by year’s end. However, Meduza notes that many of the wounded included in the 1.2 million figure eventually return to combat and that far less open data exist on injuries than on deaths (which show up in obituaries and inheritance registries), so they and Mediazona deliberately avoid publishing a single “total losses” number that mixes killed and wounded, arguing that lumping irreversible and temporary (so‑called sanitary) losses together can be misleading. (Meduza, 01.29.26)
• CSIS estimates that, in 2024, Russian forces seized roughly 3,604 square kilometers, about 0.6 % of Ukraine—less than the size of Delaware. In 2025, they added about 4,831 square kilometers, or 0.8 %, plus 473 square kilometers retaken in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Overall, Russia now controls around 120,000 square kilometers—roughly 20 % of Ukraine—far below its goal of conquering the country. Russia’s net gains since 2022 total around 75,000 square kilometers, or about 12 % of Ukraine’s territory. (CSIS, 01.27.26) RM estimates that in 2025, Russia gained 2,171 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, or .93% for the year. By the end of 2025, Russia controlled 45,627 square miles of Ukraine, or 20.1% of Ukraine. RM calculates that since 02.24.22, Russia’s net gains have totaled 29,108 square miles, or 12.5% of pre-2014 Ukraine.

Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2026

• On Jan. 28, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Vovchansk, near Dronivka and Pazeno. (RM, 01.30.26)
• Ukrainian forces continued a growing mid‑range strike campaign on the night of Jan. 27–28, hitting Russian manpower concentrations and a drone control point near Velyka Novosilka and Hryhorivka in Donetsk Oblast, an ammunition depot near Nyzhnya Duvanka in Luhansk Oblast, a battalion command post near Berezove, and a manpower cluster in Kolotylivka, Belgorod Oblast, in an effort to generate their own battlefield‑air‑interdiction effects and blunt recent Russian advances. (ISW, 01.28.26)
• Russian attacks across Ukraine killed at least three people and injured several others, Ukrainian officials said on Jan. 28. (RFE/RL, 01.28.26)
• British Army Chief Gen. Sir Roly Walker told the International Armored Vehicles Conference that Ukrainian forces achieved a roughly 7‑to‑1 kill ratio over Russia in December 2025, inflicting just over 33,000 Russian killed and wounded that month (about 1,065 per day), with an estimated 80% of those casualties caused by one‑way attack drones, and suggested that loitering munitions are now reshaping the battlefield more than artillery once did. (The National Interest, 01.28.26)

Thursday, Jan. 29, 2026

• On Jan. 29, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Zlahoda and advanced near Hrabovske and Yehorivka. (RM, 01.30.26)
• Ukrainian officials said three people were killed when a Russian drone strike set an apartment block ablaze in Zaporizhzhia region overnight and two more were injured in Dnipropetrovsk, as Zelenskyy warned intelligence shows Moscow massing forces for another massive aerial barrage after launching more than 6,000 drones in the past month, even as U.S.-brokered peace talks are due to resume Sunday and EU leaders accuse Russia of substituting intensified attacks on civilians for stalled battlefield gains. Ukraine’s Air Force said Russia launched 105 attack drones between Jan. 28–29, mostly Shahed, Geran, and Italmas, downing or jamming 84, while 18 struck seven locations including Odesa, Kryvyi Rih and Volnyansk already reeling from 146 drones the night before. (Washington Post, 01.29.26, RBC.ua, 01.29.26)
• Ukraine’s General Staff said Russian forces sharply increased offensive activity on Jan. 29, with 180 combat engagements by 16:00 — more than four times the previous day — including 77 assaults on the Pokrovsk axis alone (65 already repelled) and heavy attacks around Huliaipole (25), Oleksandrivka (19), and other eastern and southern sectors, while overall Russian losses since February 2022 are approaching 1.3 million killed and wounded. (Korrespondent.net, 01.29.26)
• Ukraine’s General Staff reported that its forces destroyed a Russian 1L119 “Nebo‑SVU” radar station near occupied Lymarivka in Luhansk Oblast — a system valued at roughly $100 million — and struck several Russian drone command posts near Sladke, Rovnopol, Novohryhorivka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) and Podstepne (occupied part of Kherson Oblast), as well as an ammunition depot near Vasylivka in Zaporizhzhia, with damage assessments ongoing. (RBC.ua, 01.29.26)
• Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation chief Andrii Kovalenko said Russian forces lost two more combat aircraft on Jan. 28 — a Su‑30 and a Su‑34 — adding to strikes earlier this month in which Ukrainian special forces hit five Russian airfields, destroying or damaging 15 aircraft (including Su‑30SM, Su‑34, Su‑27, Su‑24, MiG‑31, An‑26 and three Mi‑series helicopters) and causing over $1 billion in damage. (RBC.ua, 01.29.26)
• Russian forces are using cheap Molniya fixed‑wing FPV drones equipped with Starlink terminals to conduct daily battlefield‑air‑interdiction strikes on the E‑50 Pokrovsk–Pavlohrad highway 35–78 km behind the front, part of a broader campaign to hit Ukrainian logistics with long‑range drones, as Ukraine’s defense ministry says it is working with SpaceX to block unauthorized Russian Starlink use. (ISW, 01.29.26)

Friday, Jan. 30, 2026

• On Jan. 30, Ukraine’s Air Force said that Moscow’s forces launched 111 strike drones and one ballistic missile at Ukraine overnight. At least 25 the drones made it through the defenses, but no details were given on what was struck. (Washington Post, 01.30.26)
• Ukraine’s recent setbacks around Huliaipole in the Zaporizhia Oblast highlights the central challenge facing the Ukrainian Army lack of troops to defend every sector equally, creating gaps where Moscow’s forces can advance more easily, New York Times reports. Analysts note Russian units often outnumber Ukrainian ones by up to 10:1 in some sectors, while many existing infantrymen are older and unfit for arduous combat, according to Wall Street Journal. (Wall Street Journal, 01.29.26, New York Times, 01.30.26)
• The personnel shortages have become so acute that some Ukrainian officers describe battalions that should field 500 soldiers but are “lucky” to have 100, of whom maybe 50 are combat‑ready, amid draft‑dodging, desertion, and exhaustion , according to New York Times. Incoming Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov recently said about 2 million Ukrainians are dodging the draft and more than 200,000 soldiers have deserted — roughly one‑fifth of the armed forces, according to Wall Street Journal. (Wall Street Journal, 01.29.26, New York Times, 01.30.26)
• A report by Latvia’s security services estimates Russian killed‑in‑action numbers have “jumped” in recent weeks as Ukrainian drones now account for 70–80% of casualties on both sides, with Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov claiming 35,000 Russians killed in December and setting a “strategic objective” of 50,000 per month — a level that would roughly match Russia’s recruitment and, if sustained, could force the Kremlin toward another unpopular mobilization and weaken Putin’s hand in ongoing Donbas‑focused peace talks. (Bloomberg, 01.30.26)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

Saturday, Jan. 24, 2026

• Russia launched another massive overnight barrage of 370 attack drones and 21 missiles on Kyiv and other cities. (Axios, 01.24.26)
• Russia’s escalating strike campaign on Ukraine’s energy grid underscores Kyiv’s urgent need for more air defenses, ISW said, noting that Zelenskyy reported Trump agreed to supply PAC‑3 interceptors for Patriot systems as Russia fires large, stockpiled missile–drone salvos — including Shaheds upgraded with cluster warheads, mines, and retargeting capability — that Ukraine mostly shoots down but which still inflict severe damage when they penetrate its layered defenses. (ISW, 01.24.26)

Monday, Jan. 26, 2026

• Ukrainian experts report Russia is increasingly using Starlink‑equipped BM‑35 strike drones to hit targets deep in Ukraine, including a recent strike on Dnipro about 86 km from the front, with the platform’s reported 500‑km range putting most of Ukraine, all of Moldova, and parts of Poland, Romania, and Lithuania at risk; ISW notes Rubikon’s BM‑35s have been used against cargo ships near Odesa and a Patriot battery near Kharkiv and warns that such mid‑range strikes, resilient to electronic warfare, heighten Ukraine’s need for more point‑defense air‑defense systems. (ISW, 01.26.26)
• France will hold the first meeting of Group of Seven finance officials under its presidency on Jan. 27, with discussions expected to focus on securing supplies of critical raw materials and continued support for Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 01.26.26)

Tuesday, Jan. 27, 2026

• Ukrainian and European officials told the Financial Times that a U.S. pullback would now be less crippling than it appeared a year ago, noting that other allies have stepped in with their own assets; Emmanuel Macron recently claimed France is now providing about two‑thirds of Ukraine’s battlefield intelligence, and a Western official said Kyiv’s reliance on U.S. intelligence could be “largely reduced within months.” (Financial Times, 01.27.26)

Thursday, Jan. 29, 2026

• A Ukrainian officer told Ukrainska Pravda that Russian forces now “almost completely control” Myrnohrad in Donetsk region, having deployed artillery, headquarters, and a commandant’s office in the city while shifting staff from Novohrodivka, as Ukrainian troops cling to positions in the north around the rail depot and nearby Svitle, trying to prevent Russian mechanized units — supported by overwhelming air and drone dominance — from breaking out of the urban area. (Ukrainska Pravda, 01.29.26)

Friday, Jan. 30, 2026

• NATO said the next Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting in the Ramstein format will take place on February 12 at alliance headquarters in Brussels, co‑chaired by the U.K. and Germany, following the 32nd (online) session in December where partners pledged long‑term support and outlined 2026 aid volumes. (Korrespondent.net, 01.30.26)
• Zelenskyy accused European partners of leaving Ukraine’s skies exposed after a missed PURL (Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List) payment allegedly delayed delivery of PAC‑3 interceptor missiles for Patriot systems by a day. He said the shipment arrived only after a massive Jan. 20 Russian strike that launched 34 ballistic and cruise missiles, driving the country “to the brink of a blackout” and leaving many Ukrainians without power, heating, or water in the coldest winter of the war. At one point, Zelenskyy noted, an “empty division” saw both NASAMS and Patriot launchers without interceptors. (Korrespondent.net, 01.30.26, Financial Times, 01.30.26)
• Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said Ukraine and Poland will jointly modernize MiG‑29 fighters — including aircraft already transferred by Warsaw — to boost effectiveness against Russian targets, while deepening cooperation on joint drone projects, “small” air defense systems, and using the NATO‑Ukraine JATEC center in Poland to share battlefield lessons and align with NATO standards. (Korrespondent.net, 01.30.26)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

Monday, Jan. 26, 2026

• The U.K.’s Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation fined Bank of Scotland, part of Lloyds Banking Group, £160,000 for opening a Halifax account in 2023 for sanctioned ex‑Sevastopol governor Dmitrii Ovsiannikov, who then processed 24 payments totaling £77,383 before being jailed for 40 months for money laundering and breaching Russia sanctions — the first prosecution under the U.K.’s Russia Regulations. (Financial Times, 01.26.26) 

Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2026

• An investigation by Hunterbrook Media found that U.S. tech company Ubiquiti has continued supplying Russia with long‑range wireless “radiobridges” used to control drones and battlefield communications, with the value of shipments into Russia rising by at least 66% since the full‑scale invasion and an estimated 80% of such devices used by Russian forces produced by Ubiquiti. The equipment is routed via intermediaries in Turkey, Armenia, and Kazakhstan, and has been documented in at least nine Russian units accused of war crimes, including the 76th Guards Air Assault Division that operated in Bucha, while Armenian distributor ITsupport and U.S. firm Multilink Solutions reportedly agreed to arrange deliveries despite sanctions. (Istories/Hunterbrook Media, 01.27.26)
• Several of Russia’s most prominent TV personalities, including Pavel Zarubin, a state TV reporter known for fawning reporting on -- and nearly unfettered access to -- President Vladimir Putin, were targeted in the European Union's newest package of sanctions. The proposed measures were adopted by the European Council -- the bloc's executive body -- on Jan. 28 at a meeting of EU ambassadors. EU members that have typically been wary of provoking Moscow -- Hungary and Slovakia -- did not block the measures. (RFE/RL, 01.28.26)
• The International Olympic Committee said Jan. 27 it has cleared 13 Russian athletes to compete at the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan and Cortina as neutrals, marking a limited return for Russian competitors after years of suspension. (MT/AFP, 01.28.26)

Thursday, Jan. 29, 2026

• A new U.S. executive order declares a national emergency over the “threat” posed by Cuba and allows tariffs on goods from countries supplying it with oil, citing Havana’s ties with Russia, China and Iran. Washington accuses Cuba of hosting foreign military and intelligence assets that endanger U.S. national security and of aligning with “malign actors” opposed to the United States. (TASS, 01.29.26)
• German police raided Deutsche Bank’s Frankfurt headquarters and its Berlin branch in a money‑laundering probe tied by media to offshore companies allegedly linked to sanctioned oligarch Roman Abramovich, focusing on transactions from 2013–2018 that the bank reported late to authorities; Deutsche Bank says it is cooperating, while Abramovich’s lawyer calls any allegations “false and defamatory,” and the news knocked the bank’s shares down about 3% a day before it was due to report its strongest profits in years. (Meduza, 01.29.26)

Friday, Jan. 30, 2026

• Canada’s visa application centers in Russia stopped accepting visa documents as of Jan. 28, 2026, without explaining whether the suspension is temporary or permanent; Russian applicants are advised to apply through Canadian visa centers in third countries such as Kazakhstan or Kyrgyzstan, though biometric data can still be collected inside Russia. (Meduza, 01.30.26) 

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Friday, Jan. 23, 2026

• Putin met for nearly four hours in Moscow on Jan. 22–23 with U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner and Board of Peace adviser Josh Gruenbaum, agreeing U.S.–Russia–Ukraine working‑group talks in Abu Dhabi on Jan. 23–24, led on the Russian side by GRU chief Adm. Igor Kostyukov and on the Ukrainian side by NSDC secretary Rustem Umerov with a large delegation including Kyrylo Budanov, Davyd Arakhamia and senior GUR and SBU officers. (ISW, 01.23.26)
• Kremlin officials said there is “no hope” of a long‑term settlement unless the war is ended on the opaque “Anchorage formula” allegedly agreed at the August 2025 Alaska summit — interpreted in Moscow as Ukraine ceding all of Donbas (Luhansk and Donetsk) and freezing current front lines elsewhere — and are using that ambiguity to pressure Trump to abandon the more recently negotiated 20‑point plan developed with Ukraine and Europe. (ISW, 01.23.26)

Saturday, Jan. 24, 2026

• Ukrainian, Russian and U.S. officials concluded two days of rare trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi on Jan. 24 with Zelenskyy calling them “constructive” and U.S. negotiators describing them as “productive” and a “critical step.” U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, Josh Gruenbaum, Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, shuttled between delegations led by Adm. Igor Kostyukov for Russia and Kyrylo Budanov and Rustem Umerov for Ukraine, discussing a 20‑point peace plan covering security guarantees, reconstruction, POW exchanges, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, and especially eastern Ukrainian territory. Officials agreed to reconvene in Abu Dhabi around Feb. 1, with U.S. negotiators saying they are “very close” to arranging a first Putin–Zelenskyy meeting if progress continues. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov, however, warned there is “no hope” for a long‑term settlement until Kyiv accepts Russian territorial demands based on the so‑called Anchorage/Alaska “understandings,” under which Moscow seeks all of eastern Donetsk and a frozen front in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Zelenskyy insists on full territorial integrity and is considering options such as neutral peacekeepers or a demilitarized zone, even as overnight Russian strikes with 370 drones and 21 missiles left over 1 million people in Kyiv and Chernihiv without power and about half of Kyiv’s apartment blocks without heat in subzero temperatures, deepening public skepticism that diplomacy can halt the war. (Moscow Times, 01.24.26, Axios, 01.24.26, Axios, 01.24.26, Washington Post, 01.24.26, Axios, 01.24.26, Moscow Times, 01.24.26, Moscow Times, 01.24.26, Bloomberg, 01.24.26, RFE/RL, 01.25.26, New York Times, 01.24.26)
• Washington says discussions on security guarantees for Ukraine are “very advanced,” with a draft framework already reviewed by NATO and European allies, while the most difficult issues remain control of eastern Ukrainian territory and the future of the Russian‑occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, where any deal will hinge in part on how its power output is shared. (Bloomberg, 01.25.26)

Sunday, Jan. 25, 2026

• Zelenskyy said a bilateral U.S.–Ukraine security guarantees agreement is “100% ready” and awaiting a signing date before ratification by Congress and the Verkhovna Rada, calling it central to any peace deal as he reiterated that Ukraine’s territorial integrity must be respected, even as Russia demands Ukrainian withdrawal from all areas in the east it has illegally annexed but not fully captured. (Washington Post, 01.25.26)

Tuesday, Jan. 27, 2026

• The Trump administration has indicated to Ukraine that U.S. security guarantees are contingent on Kyiv first agreeing a peace deal that would likely involve ceding the Donbas region to Russia, according to eight people familiar with talks. Washington has also suggested it would promise Ukraine more weaponry to bolster its peacetime army if — as the price of peace with Russia — it agreed to withdraw its forces from the parts of the eastern region it controls, two of the people said. (Financial Times, 01.27.27)
  • Ukraine wants to confirm the U.S. security guarantees before it gives up any land. The U.S., however, believes Kyiv must give up the Donbas for the war to end and is doing little to pressure Russian leader Vladimir Putin to abandon one of his most hardline — and persistent — demands, the people said. (Financial Times, 01.27.27)
• Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov confirmed that U.S.–Russia–Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi will resume next week, with a U.S. official saying Sunday, even as Moscow continues to insist on what it claims were Alaska‑summit terms under which Ukraine would surrender parts of Donbas it still controls, prompting analysts at ISW to warn that Russia may be using the trilateral format mainly to stall and avoid additional Trump‑threatened sanctions while intensifying winter strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure. (New York Times, 01.27.26)
• Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha - echoing other officials - said in an interview published in Ukrainian media late Jan. 27 that the improvement in the talks could in part be credited to "a qualitative change in the composition of the Russian delegation," which included members of the military and intelligence services. "These are different people, and there were no more pseudo-historical lectures. The talks were very focused," he said. Previous Russian-Ukrainian talks in Istanbul were dismissed by Kyiv as time-wasting exercises with low-level mediators. Still, he said the "most sensitive issues" were still under contention - namely, who would control Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region and the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe. (Washington Post, 01.26.26)
• Many Ukrainians see the U.S.-brokered Abu Dhabi peace talks as “just a show,” telling reporters that Russia’s simultaneous launch of hundreds of drones and missiles and its insistence on Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas prove Moscow wants to keep fighting, while skepticism also extends to Trump as mediator, with one poll showing 74% of Ukrainians view him as bad for their country even as some soldiers argue a negotiated deal may be the only realistic way to end the war. (Barron’s/AFP, 01.27.26)
• U.S. officials leading the talks are convinced that Russian negotiators have taken a more pragmatic tone behind closed doors than Moscow's public hardline rhetoric suggests, according to two people familiar with the matter. (Kyiv Independent, 01.27.26)
• A January 2026 Levada Center poll found 76% of Russians support the actions of their armed forces in Ukraine (43% “definitely,” 33% “rather” support), while 18% oppose them; 61% say Russia should move to peace talks (down 5 points in a month) versus 31% who favor continuing military action (up 6 points), and 59% think Russia should intensify strikes on Ukraine using new types of weapons, compared with 21% who believe Moscow should make additional concessions to Ukraine and the West. (Levada Center, 01.27.26)

Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2026

• Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said the latest U.S.–Russia–Ukraine talks in the UAE showed “progress,” crediting a “qualitative change” in the Russian delegation to senior military and intelligence officials and confirming that only the most sensitive issues — control of Donetsk and the Russian‑held Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant — remain unresolved,. Sybiha said the current peace effort is expected to produce two separate agreements — a bilateral 20‑point framework between the U.S. and Ukraine, and a parallel U.S.–Russia accord — with the EU present in the process but not a signatory. (Washington Post, 01.28.26, Meduza, 01.28.26)

Thursday, Jan. 29, 2026

• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the next round of talks in Abu Dhabi on February 1 will feature primarily bilateral Ukraine–Russia meetings, possibly with U.S. observers but without Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner at the table, as discussions move from an “introductory” phase toward concrete security guarantees that could include British and French troop deployments to Ukraine, backed by U.S. support. (RBC.ua, 01.29.26)
• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed Washington and Kyiv have effectively finalized a bilateral security guarantees deal, with a “general consensus” that a small contingent of European troops could deploy to Ukraine with U.S. backing, while Moscow continues to reject any Western guarantees and insists on reviving its 2022 Istanbul framework that would severely limit Ukraine’s military and give Russia veto power over future security responses. (ISW, 01.29.26)
  • On Jan. 29, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov dismissed a bilateral security agreement between the United States and Ukraine — a key condition Kyiv that officials say is needed for them to sign the deal — saying “that such security guarantees are unlikely to ensure lasting peace.” Lavrov told journalists in Moscow that he did not know the specifics of the agreement, but said that “apparently, these are guarantees for the very Ukrainian regime that pursues a Russophobic, neo-Nazi policy.” “If the goal is to preserve this regime in some part of the territory of former Ukraine and continue to use this regime as a springboard for creating threats to the Russian Federation,” then there would be no peace in the future, Lavrov said in his remarks. He added that Russia “will look at real proposals” for Ukraine’s security arrangements “and will not be guided” by “very public games.”  A Western diplomat, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, characterized the impasse over signing security guarantees as a “sequencing issue.” (Washington Post, 01.29.26)
• In addition to security guarantees, the issue of territory is also hindering the talks, officials say. U.S., Ukrainian and Russian officials have made no secret that the main sticking point is the fate of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region. The Kremlin insists that the whole region should be given to it as part of a final settlement — citing an agreement reached with Trump during the summit in Alaska — despite its inability after nearly four years of fighting to seize the final, heavily fortified portion of it. The issue of Donetsk is “still a bridge we have to cross. It’s still a gap,” Rubio told the Senate. “But at least we’ve been able to narrow down the issue set to one central one, and it will probably be a very difficult one.” But for the Ukrainians, any territorial concessions must also come with ironclad security guarantees. (Washington Post, 01.29.26)
• It is precisely the lack of high level officials in the Abu Dhabi talks that show Russians aren’t serious, said European Union foreign policy head Kaja Kallas, noting that the Russian delegation consisted of military and intelligence officials. The military officials “do not have a mandate to agree on anything, which means that they are definitely not serious about peace,” she said ahead of a meeting of the E.U.’s Foreign Affairs Council on Jan. 29.“It is the opposite,” she said. “They are bombing Ukrainians, trying to bomb and freeze them to surrender.” (Washington Post, 01.29.26) 

Friday, January 30, 2026.

• Trump said a Russia-Ukraine peace deal is “very close,” despite what he called personal and political hostility between Zelensky and Putin that “makes it very difficult.” He also claimed Putin agreed to his personal request not to fire on Kyiv and other towns for a week because of extreme cold weather, calling the Russian leader’s response “very nice.” (WION, 01.30.26)
• Putin’s special envoy Kirill Dmitriev is expected to meet members of Trump’s team in Miami, Florida, on Jan. 31, ahead of a planned round of talks in the UAE, Reuters sources told Korrespondent. The U.S. side has not been officially named, but media speculate attendees may include Trump envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. (Korrespondent, 01.30.26)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

Saturday, Jan. 24, 2026

• U.S. and European intelligence officials said they see no current military threat from China or Russia to Greenland and are unaware of any classified reporting that backs Donald Trump’s claims of an “enormous, unsecured” island, noting that Greenland already falls under NATO’s security umbrella, hosts about 200 U.S. troops today (down from 10,000 in the Cold War), and faces more risk from Trump’s push to “take” the territory than from Beijing or Moscow. (New York Times, 01.24.26)
• U.S. and European officials say they have seen no intelligence indicating that China or Russia pose a current military threat to Greenland, which is already covered by NATO’s security umbrella, contradicting Donald Trump’s claims that the island is “enormous, unsecured” and a “core national security interest” that Washington must acquire. (New York Times, 01.24.26)

Sunday, Jan. 25, 2026

• Defense analysts say Europe is accelerating toward greater military self‑reliance but would still need roughly $1 trillion to replace U.S. forces and kit, as annual European defense spending has doubled in a decade to about $560 billion, firms like Rheinmetall ramp up to 1.5 million 155mm shells a year (more than all U.S. producers combined), and equipment budgets are on track to reach 80% of Pentagon levels by 2035, even while major gaps remain in stealth aircraft, long‑range missiles, and satellite intelligence. (Wall Street Journal, 01.25.26) 

Monday, Jan. 26, 2026

• NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte told the European Parliament that Europe is “dreaming” if it thinks it can defend itself without the U.S., arguing that fully replacing the American security umbrella would require defense spending closer to 10% of GDP (including building a European nuclear deterrent) and would “benefit only” adversaries like Vladimir Putin, even as EU states move toward a 5% target by 2035. (Financial Times, 01.26.26)

Tuesday, Jan. 27, 2026

• Several Nato members have intensified training in Arctic conditions in Norway, Finland and Greenland, including the U.S., UK and France. In March, about 25,000 soldiers from across the alliance—including 4,000 from the U.S.—will take part in the Cold Response exercise in northern Norway, aimed to practice air, sea and land warfare in harsh winter conditions. (Financial Times, 01.27.26)

Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2026

• Trump’s Greenland threats have shattered core assumptions underpinning NATO and forced European leaders to “think the unthinkable” about defending the continent with far less—or even hostile—U.S. involvement, even though replacing American capabilities would cost around $1 trillion, demand defense spending closer to 10% of GDP (vs the already-ambitious 5% by 2035 pledge), and take a decade or more to replicate critical assets such as spy satellites, long‑range missiles, heavy lift and nuclear deterrence, pushing Europe toward ideas like a stronger “European pillar” in NATO, regional coalitions, and Franco‑British–led “coalitions of the willing” around Ukraine rather than a fully independent EU army. (Financial Times, 01.28.26)
• Spain’s foreign minister José Manuel Albares said Europe “must go to a European army” to ensure it has its own deterrent as U.S. guarantees become less reliable, arguing that Trump’s threats to seize Greenland show “the American administration has a new vision of transatlantic security” and that the EU must evolve from an economic power into a political and security power, even as NATO chief Mark Rutte dismisses talk of European self‑defense without the U.S. as “dreaming.” (Financial Times, 01.28.26)

Friday, Jan. 30, 2026

• Russia’s U.N. ambassador Vasily Nebenzya said he has “no doubt” the United States will achieve its goals regarding Greenland, after Trump stated “we need Greenland.” Nebenzya suggested this may not involve sovereignty but meeting U.S.-set conditions, including access to resources and defense against perceived threats from Russia and China, under updated defense arrangements that preserve Danish sovereignty. (TASS, 01.30.26)
• A nationwide Levada Center poll conducted Jan. 15–23, 2026 found that Russians largely feel things in most areas of public life either worsened or stayed the same in 2025. In the sphere of foreign relations 54% say relations with Western countries and NATO deteriorated, 25% see no change, and only 6% think they improved; the share reporting deterioration, however, has fallen sharply from 82% in late 2022. By contrast, when asked about Russia’s position on the international stage, 31% believe it improved over the past year, 29% say it is unchanged, and 26% think it worsened—an 8‑point drop in negative assessments compared with two years ago. (Levada Center, 01.30.26)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Russia has increasingly relied on China to offset sanctions and sustain its war effort. Bilateral trade reached nearly $250 billion in 2024, up from $190 billion in 2022, with China accounting for around one‑third of Russia’s foreign trade. China supplies high‑priority dual‑use items such as chips, machine tools, sensors, and ammonium perchlorate—70% of Russia’s imports in 2024—helping Russia triple production of Iskander‑M ballistic missiles between 2023 and 2024. (CSIS, 01.27.26)
• China has supplied Russia with at least $10.3 billion in technology and advanced equipment, including CNC machines used to produce Oreshnik intermediate‑range ballistic missiles at the Votkinsk plant and Shahed‑type drones at the Alabuga SEZ, as well as millions of dollars’ worth of microchips, memory boards, ball bearings, telescopic sights, and other dual‑use components that have enabled Moscow to scale up and improve its long‑range strike capabilities against Ukraine. (ISW, 01.28.26)
• Russia’s MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC faces a delay in building a copper smelter on China’s south coast, after its local partner withdrew from the project. Nornickel, as Russia’s biggest miner is known, was ready to sign a deal to begin construction before China’s May holiday period in 2025, but its partner pulled out following management changes, according to people familiar with the matter. The plant in the port city of Fangchenggang in Guangxi region was due to open in 2027, producing 500,000 tons of refined copper a year using concentrate shipped from Russia. (Bloomberg, 01.26.26)
  • MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC expects platinum and palladium output to decline this year due to lower ore grades. Palladium production could fall by as much as 11% to 2.4 million troy ounces, while platinum output may be about 8% lower at 616,000 ounces, the company known as Nornickel said in a statement on Wednesday. (Bloomberg, 01.28.26)
• Almost 100% of Russia’s trade settlements with key partners China and India are now conducted in national currencies, VTB CEO Andrey Kostin said, citing the ruble, yuan and rupee. He added that around 90% of payments within the EAEU use the ruble and that over 60% of BRICS settlements are in national currencies, though the dollar remains a key global payment instrument. (TASS, 01.30.26)
• The Trump administration’s new 25‑page National Defense Strategy downplays the risk of direct confrontation with China, framing Beijing as a challenge to be deterred “through strength, not confrontation” while casting migration and narcotics in the Western Hemisphere as greater threats than foreign adversaries and shifting focus from large overseas deployments and “endless wars” toward border security, domestic industrial capacity, and treating Russia mainly as a homeland—not NATO—threat. (Bloomberg, 01.24.26)
• China’s top general, Zhang Youxia, is under investigation for allegedly leaking “core technical data” on China’s nuclear weapons program to the U.S. and taking huge bribes for promotions and procurement decisions, part of a sweeping purge that has removed or investigated more than 50 senior PLA officers and defense‑industry executives in 2½ years and left the Central Military Commission with just one remaining professional military member, raising questions about the PLA’s short‑term combat readiness. (Wall Street Journal, 01.25.26) 

Missile defense:

• A high‑stakes competition is unfolding in space as China and Russia rapidly expand on‑orbit capabilities while the Trump administration, having created the Space Force and relocated SPACECOM to Alabama, now pushes a $175 billion “Golden Dome” space‑based missile defense concept and a Scalable Homeland Innovative Enterprise Layered Defense contract worth up to $151 billion with more than 2,400 applicants, amid warnings that attacks on satellites could cripple everything from weather forecasts to GPS and financial transactions. (Axios, 01.24.26)
• Germany’s space command chief Maj. Gen. Michael Traut said Berlin will develop the core of a national, space‑based missile‑detection system—the first operational European capability of its kind—as part of a €35 billion military‑space investment by 2030, aimed at reducing reliance on U.S. early‑warning satellites and complementing Germany’s “sky shield” air and missile defense initiative amid heightened concern over Russian systems like the Oreshnik ballistic missile. (Financial Times, 01.29.26)

Nuclear arms:

• Trump faces an imminent decision on whether to accept Vladimir Putin’s offer of a one‑year informal extension of New START’s limits on deployed U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear forces when the treaty expires on Feb. 5, 2026—the first time in over 50 years the two countries could be left without any binding arms‑control pact. Hawks argue letting the caps lapse would free Washington to load more warheads and better deter both Russia and a rapidly expanding Chinese arsenal, while arms‑control advocates warn it could spark a three‑way nuclear arms race; some propose taking Putin’s deal only if Moscow resumes on‑site inspections, using the year to try to bring Russia—and possibly China—into talks on a new framework. (Wall Street Journal, 01.30.26)
• Deputy Security Council chair Dmitry Medvedev is leveraging the imminent Feb. 5, 2026 expiry of New START to push Washington to normalize bilateral relations and accept Putin’s offer of an informal one‑year extension, warning of wider nuclear proliferation and touting new Russian systems like Burevestnik, Oreshnik, and Poseidon—a tactic ISW says is meant to trade arms‑control cooperation for U.S. concessions on Ukraine or even to distract Washington from the peace track altogether. (ISW, 01.26.26)
• Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned that allowing the New START treaty to expire will create a serious gap in the legal framework of strategic stability, harming not only Russia and the United States but global security. He criticized Washington’s refusal to extend the treaty, while Trump has downplayed its expiration and said he prefers a more favorable agreement, potentially including China. (TASS, 01.29.26)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• AP reporters in Qamishli say Russian forces have begun pulling out of at least one base near the city’s airport in northeast Syria, with SDF fighters now guarding largely emptied quarters and saying Russian equipment has been flown out over the past week, as Moscow recalibrates its presence under Syria’s new interim president Ahmad al‑Sharaa while retaining core air and naval bases on the Mediterranean coast. (Washington Post/AP, 01.27.26)
• Putin met with Syria's Ahmed al-Sharaa for talks at the Kremlin on Jan. 28 as Russia seeks to maintain control of its military bases in the Middle Eastern country. "Much has been accomplished in terms of restoring our interstate relations," Putin said in a televised meeting with Sharaa. "We have closely monitored your efforts to restore Syria's territorial integrity, and I want to congratulate you on the momentum this process is gaining," Putin said in an apparent reference to Sharaa's recent offensive against Kurdish forces in Syria's northeast. (MT/AFP, 01.28.26)

Cyber security/AI: 

• Russia has no firms among the world’s top 100 technology companies by market capitalization and ranks 28th of 36 countries for AI “vibrancy.” Its top AI models trail older Western systems. In space, Roscosmos conducted only 17 orbital launches in 2025, compared with 193 by the United States and 92 by China. Recent failures include Luna‑25’s crash on the Moon and a 2025 launchpad accident damaging a key crewed‑flight facility. (CSIS, 01.27.26)
• Germany’s interior minister Alexander Dobrindt said Berlin will lower the threshold for offensive cyber operations and “strike back, even abroad” against foreign hackers linked to state intelligence services, as part of a new push that includes creating a national defense center against hybrid threats within the domestic intelligence service this year and drafting legislation to expand German agencies’ currently restrictive digital surveillance powers after a surge of Russian-attributed cyber attacks, sabotage, and assassination attempts. (Financial Times, 01.26.26)
• A major outage in Russia’s Leonardo (“Sirena‑Travel”) airline booking system on Jan. 26 paralyzed ticket sales, exchanges, and refunds for carriers including Aeroflot, Pobeda, Azur Air, Yamal, Ural Airlines, and Izhavia, with the Association of Tour Operators estimating at least 20,000 passengers were affected and noting that Sirena handles 80–90% of all airline bookings and is used by more than 60 carriers. (Istories, 01.27.26)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Russia has targeted Ukraine’s energy system at least twice this week in locations other than Kyiv, striking facilities belonging to DTEK, the country’s largest private energy company, in the Odesa region and Naftogaz, the state oil and gas firm, in western Ukraine. “The damage is colossal,” DTEK wrote on its Telegram channel on Tuesday about the attack, which took place overnight. “The repair will take a long time to restore the equipment to a working condition.” (Washington Post, 01.30.26)

Sunday, Jan. 25, 2026

• French authorities detained the 58‑year‑old Indian captain of the sanctioned tanker Grinch after French navy forces seized the suspected Russian “shadow fleet” vessel in the Mediterranean and escorted it to the Gulf of Fos‑sur‑Mer, where investigators are probing alleged flag irregularities and sanctions‑busting oil shipments while the Indian crew remains confined on board. (Washington Post, 01.25.26)

Monday, Jan. 26, 2026

• European Union member states on Monday gave final approval to a plan to phase out all imports of Russian pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas by 2027. Imports of Russian LNG will end by the close of 2026, followed by a ban on pipeline gas starting Sept. 30, 2027. The move is part of the bloc’s broader effort to cut off a key source of revenue for Russia’s war in Ukraine. The ban, known as REPowerEU, passed by a qualified majority vote of 24 to 2, with Bulgaria abstaining and Hungary and Slovakia voting against it. (MT/AFP, 01.26.26)
• A subsidiary of the German energy multinational Uniper has filed a 45 million euro ($53.6 million) lawsuit against Russia’s Gazprom for gas transported through the OPAL pipeline in eastern Germany, Interfax reported Monday, citing Russian court documents. The subsidiary, Lubmin-Bandov Gastransport, filed the lawsuit with the International Chamber of Commerce’s arbitration court in Geneva. The dispute stems from Gazprom’s decision to curtail gas deliveries following Western sanctions imposed in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. (MT/AFP, 01.26.26)

Tuesday, Jan. 27, 2026

• A group of 14 European nations have issued an open warning to shadow-fleet tankers in the Baltic and North Seas, raising the stakes for vessels they say are endangering maritime safety. Ships can only sail under the flag of one state, and must maintain valid documentation on safety and insurance, among other requirements, the countries said in a joint statement issued by the UK Department for Transport on Monday. The so-called shadow, or dark, fleet is a group of around 1,500 tankers that carry Russian, Iranian and Venezuelan oil around the world. (Bloomberg, 01.27.26)
• India’s pullback from Russian oil imports is leaving Moscow with the dilemma of what to do with all the crude that it’s pumping onto tankers but is unable to offload at refineries. Russia shipped 3.18 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Jan. 25, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s little changed from the period to Jan. 18, but down by about 680,000 barrels a day from the pre-Christmas peak and the lowest since August. Deliveries of Russian crude into Indian ports slumped last month, falling to about 1.2 million barrels a day, the lowest in more than three years. (Bloomberg, 01.27.26)
  • India has more work to do in order to satisfy U.S. concerns about its purchases of Russian oil and secure tariff relief, President Donald Trump’s trade representative said. While New Delhi has “made a lot of progress” on curbing buys of Russian crude, “it’s hard for them” to completely wean off the supplies because “they like the discount that you get from Russian oil,” U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Tuesday. (Bloomberg, 01.27.26)
• Russia’s first domestically built ice-class tanker docked at the U.S.-sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 plant, expanding the facility’s fleet of vessels able to transport the fuel in winter. The Alexey Kosygin tanker has completed its month-long maiden journey across the eastern part of the Northern Sea Route and has stopped next to the Novatek PJSC-led plant, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. (Bloomberg, 01.26.26)

Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2026

• Germany is racing to keep the Rosneft‑owned PCK refinery in Schwedt—which supplies about 90% of Berlin’s petrol, kerosene, and heating fuel—operating after U.S. sanctions on Rosneft assets nearly bankrupted the plant and a temporary U.S. waiver expires on April 29, forcing Berlin to seek another exemption while quietly revisiting nationalization as a last resort to avoid a shutdown that could require 3,000 fuel trucks shuttling round‑the‑clock to keep the capital supplied. (Financial Times, 01.28.26)
• A second Russia-linked oil tanker lost control as it was entering the Mediterranean Sea in under a week. The medium-range vessel Chariot Tide first showed signs of difficulty as it approached Tangier, Morocco, on Jan. 21, when its speed abruptly dropped to less than two knots. Hours later the vessel’s navigation status was changed to “Not under command,”—a designation indicating a loss of control that would mean it can’t avoid other ships. (Bloomberg, 01.28.26)

Thursday, Jan. 29, 2026

• Trump said he personally asked Putin to halt missile and drone strikes on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities for a week during “extraordinary cold,” claiming Putin agreed to the request first floated by U.S. mediators in Abu Dhabi as a confidence‑building “energy ceasefire.” Ukrainian and U.S. officials described the pause as a limited step amid deadlocked talks, while Kyiv officials cautioned that “only the reality itself can prove it.” The Kremlin acknowledged a halt on attacks on the capital until Feb. 1. Overnight Jan. 29–30, air raid sirens in Kyiv were silent and Ukraine’s Air Force reported no strikes on the capital, though Russia still launched 111 drones and one Iskander‑M missile against eastern frontline regions. Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked Trump for the “possibility of providing security” but stressed there is “no ceasefire” and no compromise on Ukraine’s territorial integrity. U.S. and Ukrainian officials first discussed the idea of a so-called energy ceasefire during peace talks in Abu Dhabi last weekend, said two people familiar with the matter and a senior Ukrainian official involved in the talks. They said it was the U.S. delegation’s idea for Ukraine and Russia to agree to halt strikes on each other’s energy facilities as a good-faith measure and a step towards de-escalation amid contentious peace talks. (Axios, 01.29.26, Washington Post, 01.30.26, Financial Times, 01.30.26, Moscow Times/AFP, 01.30.26)[3]
• Western sanctions, flag crackdowns, and Ukrainian drone strikes are increasingly crippling Russia’s and Iran’s “shadow fleet” of some 700+ dark tankers (up to 1,500 if occasional smugglers are counted), with at least 623 vessels newly blacklisted in 2025, war‑risk insurance in the Black Sea jumping to 1% of hull value, Urals trading at a record $27/barrel discount to Brent, and experts warning that if oversupply pushes Brent lower, Urals could fall below $30, slashing Russia’s oil‑and‑gas takings to under $10 billion a month even as Moscow re‑flags more ships and considers costly naval escorts. (The Economist, 01.29.26)
• Russia’s oil and gas revenues fell roughly 20–24% in 2025 versus 2024, dropping to about 8.48 trillion rubles (~$111 billion) and falling below 23–24% of federal income for the first time in at least two decades, as U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil forced Urals crude to trade more than $24 per barrel below Brent, with some Indian cargoes at just $22–25, and prices dipping under $40 in December. The squeeze pushed Moscow’s 2025 budget deficit to about 5.6 trillion rubles, or 2.6% of GDP, and forced the Kremlin to raise VAT to 22%, increase small business taxes, borrow more, and draw down a National Wealth Fund that has shrunk by roughly half. With military and security spending now consuming an estimated 38–40% of the budget and social and economic programs cut sharply, officials warn that a strong ruble and weak oil prices could open an additional ₽3 trillion budget hole in 2026 if trends persist. (Financial Times, 01.29.26, Meduza, 01.29.26)
• Russia’s privately owned oil major Lukoil has agreed in principle to sell almost all of its foreign assets—valued at about $22 billion and spanning refineries, oil fields and some 200 U.S. gas stations—to U.S. investment firm Carlyle, excluding operations in Kazakhstan, in a deal that still requires U.S. Treasury approval and follows October sanctions by Washington and the EU that helped drive a 25% drop in Russia’s oil and gas exports last year. (New York Times, 01.29.26, Istories, 01.29.26)
  • 200 Lukoil‑branded gas stations in New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania—all run by small franchisees—have been hit hard by U.S. sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft, with some stations losing up to 50% of premium sales when they temporarily couldn’t process American Express and others delayed in receiving checks because Lukoil’s accounts were frozen. (New York Times, 01.30.26)

Friday, Jan. 30, 2026

• Zelenskyy said Kyiv backs a U.S.-proposed pause in strikes on energy infrastructure after a night without Russian attacks on power facilities, calling the tentative “energy truce” the first concrete result of renewed U.S.-mediated peace efforts. He warned, however, that Russia has shifted from power plants to logistics and civilian targets, citing a ballistic strike on U.S.-owned civilian warehouses in Kharkiv region and Shahed and FPV drone attacks on Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk and especially Nikopol, while 378 apartment blocks in Kyiv remain without heat and he has ordered stronger anti‑drone defenses between Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainians briefly hoped Russia’s four‑year campaign against their grid might ease after a call by Donald Trump, but Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Trump merely asked Vladimir Putin to halt strikes on Kyiv until Feb. 1. "I can say that President Trump did indeed make a personal request to President Putin to refrain from striking Kyiv for a week, until Feb. 1, as a way to create more hospitable conditions for negotiations," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Jan. 30. Asked to clarify whether Putin agreed to the request, Peskov said, "Yes, of course." (Wall Street Journal, 01.30.26) (Korrespondent.net, 01.30.26, Washington Post, 01.30.26, Moscow Times/AFP, 01.30.26)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2026

• Russia’s Foreign Ministry said two Russian sailors from the sanctioned tanker Bella 1 (later re‑flagged and renamed Mariner), which U.S. forces seized in the North Atlantic on Jan. 7 while pursuing it for days as part of a crackdown on Russia’s “shadow fleet,” have been released and are en route to Russia, though Washington has not yet confirmed their release. (Meduza, 01.28.26)
• Just after 2 p.m. on the first Tuesday of December, in the lower Manhattan courthouse for the U.S. Southern District of New York, a 35-year-old Russian woman and mother of a young daughter stood before a federal judge and pleaded not to be sent to jail. "My life now seems like a tragedy because I get almost every day threats from many people from many countries who think that I was a spy but they don't know the whole story," Nomma Zarubina told the court, in near-fluent English. "No one knows the whole story." About 12 months earlier, Zarubina had been arrested and charged with repeatedly lying to the FBI about her interactions with Russia's main domestic intelligence agency, the Federal Security Service. (RFE/RL, 01.28.26)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

Monday, Jan. 26, 2026

• Independent outlet Mediazona reported that a Kremlin official quietly revealed about 250,000 Russian veterans returning from the war in Ukraine are not employed and remain in a “grey zone” of living off payouts or other informal income, before state agency RIA Novosti and outlets like Kommersant later edited their stories to replace the figure with the vaguer phrase “tens of thousands” after what one newsroom source described as a “call from above,” even though a government source said the 250,000 estimate is broadly accurate but deemed too “negative” for public consumption. (Mediazona, 01.26.26)

Tuesday, Jan. 27, 2026

• Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has proposed legalizing online casinos as a way to boost state revenues, the business newspaper Kommersant reported (MT/AFP, 01.27.26)

Thursday, Jan. 29, 2026

• The number of foreign nationals living in Russia has fallen to 5.7 million this month, down 10% from Jan. 2025, amid a raft of new migration restrictions, the business newspaper Vedomosti reported Thursday. (MT/AFP, 01.29.26)
  • Russia is rolling out a “digital profile” system for all foreigners entering, leaving, or residing in the country, creating centralized dossiers run by the Interior Ministry that assign each visitor a “trust level” based on whether Moscow holds their biometrics and aggregate at least 25 categories of data from 14+ agencies—from basic identity info and family ties to specific medical conditions used to deny entry—with recent rules already forcing foreigners to give photos, voice samples, and fingerprints to get phone numbers or pass through Moscow airports. (Meduza, 01.29.26)

Friday, Jan. 30, 2026

• Moscow’s Sheremetyevo Airport, controlled by interests linked to Putin ally Arkady Rotenberg, won the auction for nationalized rival Domodedovo after the Russian government halved the starting price, agreeing to pay 66.1 billion rubles (~$880 million) instead of the original 132 billion; Sheremetyevo’s Perspektiva subsidiary outbid a Vnukovo‑affiliated firm for DME Holding, which owns Domodedovo, a heavily indebted airport with estimated liabilities of over 75 billion rubles that was seized by the state in June 2025 because its long‑time owners were deemed foreign residents. (MT/AFP, 01.30.26)
• A St. Petersburg court sentenced Dmitry Bogmut, an employee of the Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute to 7 years in a penal colony under Russia’s “fake news” law for reposting a Deutsche Welle video about the Russian army, in one of the harshest penalties yet for sharing war-related content. (Meduza, 01.30.26)

Defense and aerospace:

• The Kremlin is avoiding a new mass mobilization by offering Russian recruits huge cash bonuses, early release from prison, and fast‑track citizenship for foreigners, with Putin claiming 700,000 troops are in Ukraine, regional enlistment packages reaching about $50,000 in some areas, and foreign fighters drawn or duped from countries including India, Nepal, Bangladesh, Kenya, South Africa, Iraq and Cuba—even as estimates suggest over 1 million Russian casualties and more than 18,000 foreign nationals have fought for Russia, about 3,400 of whom have been killed. (Washington Post/AP, 01.27.26)
• Russia’s defense ministry is running a dedicated recruitment drive for its new Unmanned Systems Forces at universities, sending students “you failed your exams” letters and then offering one‑year contracts, salaries of 5.2–5.5 million rubles (~$69,000–73,000), and assignments “20 km behind the front,” though lawyers and opposition media warn these special contracts are likely a “bait and switch” overridden by Putin’s 2022 mobilization decree and can be used to funnel recruits into regular infantry units. (ISW, 01.29.26)
• Sectors tied to state defense orders in Russia, including for military equipment and components, drones and ammunition, will see annual growth of just 4%–5% this year compared to roughly 30% in recent years, the Economy Ministry’s three-year forecast shows. (Bloomberg, 01.29.26)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Residents of Murmansk and nearby Severomorsk—the world’s largest Arctic urban area—have been hit by days‑long blackouts and heating outages after five Soviet‑era transmission towers collapsed under icing and gale‑force winds on Jan. 23, leaving an estimated 73,000 people without electricity in –10°C to –17°C weather and forcing authorities to declare a regional state of emergency while erecting temporary wooden pylons that could take a week to fully connect. (Meduza, 01.27.26)
• Russia’s Interior Ministry is losing police officers on a daily basis, with staff shortages reaching as high as 40% in some units, Deputy Interior Minister Igor Zubov told lawmakers Tuesday.(MT/AFP, 01.28.26)

• A Russian court has ordered the assets of Interior Ministry cybercrime officer Georgy Satyukov forfeited to the state, after finding that while tasked with fighting online crime he took more than 5 billion rubles (over $55 million) in cryptocurrency bribes in just two and a half years, according to Kommersant. (Kommersant, 01.29.26) Kommersant described Satyukov—now on an international wanted list and a former officer in one of the Interior Ministry’s most secretive units—as the “record‑holder among Russian security officials in terms of bribe‑taking.” Some of us disagree with such a characterization of this interior ministry officer, however. In the case of Interior Ministry colonel Dmitry Zakharchenko, investigators searching apartments and vehicles linked to him in 2016 found cash in various currencies equivalent to about 8.5–9 billion rubles at the time.  

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

Monday, Jan. 26, 2026

• A leak of thousands of internal Interpol files shows Russia is the organization’s single biggest abuser of red notices and diffusions, with at least 700 people sought by Moscow filing complaints to Interpol’s review commission over the past decade and 400+ successfully getting Russian alerts canceled—more than for any other country—while an 11‑year data set shows Russia has drawn roughly three times as many complaints as Turkey, the next‑worst offender, and continued to push politically motivated cases (including against ICC judges and exiled journalists) even after Interpol imposed extra post‑2022 safeguards that insiders say were quietly loosened again in 2025. (BBC, 01.26.26)
• The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe approved a 15‑member delegation from the “Platform of Russian Democratic Forces” to engage with European lawmakers in place of Russia’s expelled official delegation, including opposition figures Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Garry Kasparov, Lyubov Sobol, Nadezhda Tolokonnikova, Vladimir Kara‑Murza, Dmitry Gudkov, Mark Feygin, Memorial co‑chair Oleg Orlov, and five representatives of Russia’s indigenous peoples. (Mediazona, 01.26.26)

Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2026

• Russia’s Interior Ministry is pushing a new “digital profile of a foreign citizen” system that will compile highly detailed dossiers on every non‑citizen entering, leaving, or residing in Russia, aggregating data from at least 14 agencies into a single database run by the ministry, with three “trust levels” tied to collected biometrics (none, photo, or photo plus fingerprints) and up to 25 broad data categories expanded into dozens of specific items, including family links and medical grounds for entry bans. (Meduza, 01.28.26)

Thursday, Jan. 29, 2026

• Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed in Moscow, praising Abu Dhabi’s role in facilitating Ukraine‑Russia prisoner exchanges and hosting the recent U.S.–Russia–Ukraine security talks, while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the UAE Russia’s main Arab trading partner amid surging bilateral trade and Emirati interest in joining Rosatom nuclear projects, even as the UAE finds itself caught between an expanding U.S. naval presence and Iranian threats to target U.S. bases and infrastructure on its soil in any regional conflict. (bne IntelliNews, 01.29.26)
• A report by TRM Labs found that crypto wallets controlled by criminals received a record $158 billion in 2025—up 145% from 2024—driven by intensified sanctions, greater use by state‑aligned actors, and better tracing tools, with Russia’s ruble‑pegged A7A5 stablecoin alone taking in over $72 billion and moving another $39 billion, while Chinese laundering networks handled about $103 billion in crypto and illicit flows still amounted to roughly 1.2% of global digital‑asset volume. (Financial Times, 01.29.26) 

Friday, Jan. 30, 2026

• A new platform of Russian democratic forces under the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe held its first meeting in Strasbourg on Jan. 29. The 15-member group, including figures such as Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Garry Kasparov, Lyubov Sobol and representatives of indigenous peoples, agreed to meet quarterly and focus on supporting political prisoners, antiwar Russians and Ukraine, amid debates over strategy and representation. (Meduza, 01.30.26)

Ukraine:

Monday, Jan. 26, 2026

• Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO) have submitted documents to Interpol to place businessmen Tymur Mindich and Oleksandr Zuckerman, suspects in the so-called Midas corruption case in the energy sector, on an international wanted list, stated SAPO head Oleksandr Klymenko. In addition, both individuals have been added to the Myrotvorets database. They are suspected of undermining Ukraine’s defense capability and energy security, as well as laundering illicit proceeds. (RBC.ua, 01.26.26)
• Ryanair chief Michael O’Leary said the airline will only resume flights to Ukraine within four to six weeks of any peace deal if airports offer “big discounts” on charges, as the carrier plans up to 40 routes carrying 5 million passengers a year while lifting its overall traffic forecast to 208 million passengers by March and guiding for FY profits of €2.13–2.23 billion on fare increases of 7–8% amid tight aircraft supply. (Financial Times, 01.26.26)

Thursday, Jan. 29, 2026

• The National Bank of Ukraine in Kyiv lowered the benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 15% on Thursday, it said in a statement. (Bloomberg, 01.29.26)
• German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Ukraine’s EU accession by Jan. 1, 2027 is “excluded” and “impossible,” arguing that even though Kyiv should have a clear membership perspective, the reforms needed to meet accession criteria mean the process will be long-term, despite a U.S.-backed “prosperity plan” and confidential European Commission documents that have floated 2027 as an option and prompted concern among some EU leaders. (Meduza, 01.29.26)
• “We want to break the majority.” According to secret recordings released by Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU), this was the directive Yulia Tymoshenko gave to a group of deputies she allegedly paid to sabotage Servant of the People, the nation’s ruling political party. The scheme, uncovered during a January raid that found $40,000 in cash in her office, was ostensibly designed to paralyze the Verkhovna Rada and block critical defense appointments. (Meduza, 01.29.26)
• Ukraine’s State Bureau of Investigations said it broke up a scheme in Odesa region in which a State Border Guard officer allegedly charged about $3,000 per person to smuggle draft‑age men into Romania outside official checkpoints, moving at least 10 clients a month; he has been remanded in custody with bail set at 500,000 hryvnias and faces up to 8 years in prison for abuse of influence. (Korrespondent.net, 01.29.26)
• Ukraine’s State Bureau of Investigation said officials at a Cherkasy regional enlistment office and a former head of the Ground Forces’ personnel department took $10,000 per client to alter entries in the national conscription registry, improperly adding or removing men from the rolls to secure deferments or help them evade mobilization, changing data for at least 48 people; four officers now face up to 6 years in prison for unauthorized changes to automated systems by an organized group. (Ukrainska Pravda, 01.29.26)

Friday, Jan. 30, 2026

• Ukraine’s High Anti-Corruption Court set bail at 10 million hryvnias for former State Border Guard Service chief Lt. Gen. Serhiy Deineko and 2 million for a checkpoint chief, both suspected of taking systematic bribes to facilitate cigarette smuggling into the EU in 2023; the court also imposed travel bans, reporting requirements, and a ban on contacting other suspects and witnesses through March 30, 2026. (Ukrainska Pravda, 01.30.26)
• In Lviv region, seven accused individuals will stand trial for misappropriating over 5 million UAH of budget funds intended for deceased and missing military personnel. According to the investigation, the organizer of the scheme was an employee of the financial and economic unit of a special-purpose law enforcement agency. (Antikor, 01.30.26)
• One of the most active members of the political party "Batkivshchyna" in Ternopil region, Yevhen Vorko, was detained by law enforcement officers on suspicion of organizing a scheme to smuggle draft dodgers across the border. According to police information, for an "astronomical" sum of 15,000 USD, he arranged for men to be employed at an enterprise that had the right to reserve workers, and then, under the guise of a business trip, sent them abroad. As the investigation established, these individuals did not return to Ukraine after leaving. (Antikor, 01.30.26)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

Tuesday, Jan. 27, 2026

• Kyrgyzstan has filed a lawsuit against Russia at the court of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) accusing Moscow of violating union rules by refusing to issue mandatory health insurance policies to family members of Kyrgyz labor migrants. (MT/AFP, 01.27.26)

Thursday, Jan. 29, 2026

• Lithuania reported 42 balloons entering its airspace from Belarus on the night of Jan. 27–28—the largest such incursion since October 2025—forcing three temporary closures of Vilnius airport and leading to the recovery of 8 balloons with smuggled cargo and 4 arrests, while Poland also detected balloon‑like objects from Belarus on Jan. 28–29, which ISW sees as part of Russia’s “Phase Zero” hybrid campaign against NATO using de facto‑annexed Belarus. (ISW, 01.29.26)
• Lithuanian authorities do not plan to deport Russian anti-corruption campaigner Leonid Volkov, a former aide to the late opposition activist Alexei Navalny, following a scandal over leaked messages where he criticized Ukrainian officials and a far-right paramilitary fighter. The Baltic country’s Internal Affairs Minister Vladislav Kondratovič said an investigation into Volkov determined that he did not pose any threat to Lithuania’s national security, nor was any evidence uncovered that would suggest he supported Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 01.29.26)

IV. Quotable and notable

• Meghan L. O’Sullivan, director of Harvard’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, wrote: “The technology space may prove the most impervious to middle power impact, given the near dominance of the United States and China in AI and other frontier realms.” (Politico, 01.27.26)
• Fiona Hill—who serves on the Harvard University Board of Overseers and who also served as a senior director for Europe and Russia on the National Security Council.—said Putin’s aim has been “to get out of this idea that Russia is just a regional power, trying to reinvigorate that kind of global or larger global reach that the Soviet Union had,” Fiona Hull said. (NBC news, 01.27.26)

Endnotes

1. Sources used: Axios, 01.29.26,  Washington Post, 01.30.26,  Financial Times, 01.30.26,  MT/AFP, 01.30.26, Korrespondent.net, 01.30.26, Washington Post, 01.30.26, MT/AFP, 01.30.26, ISW, 01.24.26, Istories, 01.29.26 
2. Sources used: Wall Street Journal, 01.30.26, ISW, 01.26.26, TASS, 01.29.26
3. Russian and Ukrainian military Telegram channels have fueled rumors that Abu Dhabi negotiators agreed to an “energy ceasefire” halting strikes on critical infrastructure until Feb. 3, allegedly enforced by internal orders on both sides. (Istories, 01.29.26, Istories, 01.29.26)

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

AI was used in production of this digest.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo: People who have no power at home following Russia's air attacks wait in line to receive free hot meals in a residential neighbourhood in Kyiv, Ukraine, Friday, Jan. 30, 2026. (AP Photo/Dan Bashakov)