6 Things to Know

1. After meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Sept. 23, Donald Trump said on social media that Kyiv was in a position, with the support of Europe, to “fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form.” The post, in which Trump called Russia a “paper tiger,” came as an abrupt U-turn as “Trump has insisted that Ukraine must give up territory to strike a peace deal with Russia,” The New York Times reports. After his meeting with Zelenskyy at the United Nations, “Trump said his views had been altered because he was beginning to ‘fully understand’ the military and economic situation,” according to NYT. However, “European officials fear Donald Trump’s latest rhetoric on Ukraine aims to set them an impossible mission that will allow the U.S. president to shift blame away from Washington if Kyiv falters in the war or runs short of cash,” according to Financial Times. “One European official noted Trump’s ‘Good luck to all!’ sign-off on his Truth Social post as tantamount to a handover note,” FT reports.
2. Kremlin officials should ensure they know the location of the nearest bomb shelter if Russia doesn’t stop its war, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, suggesting that Russian power centers like the Kremlin could become legitimate targets for Kyiv in an interview with Axios. Zelenskyy also said “Trump told him Kyiv could respond to Russia's attacks on its energy infrastructure with tit-for-tat strikes,” RFE/RL reports. He added that Trump had also green-lit retaliatory strikes on Russia's military factories. At the same time, Zelenskyy stressed that Ukraine does not intend to bomb civilians because “we are not terrorists,” Meduza reports.
3. A Russian diplomat told European envoys in Moscow that last week’s incursions by three MiG-31 fighter jets over Estonia were a response to Ukrainian attacks on Crimea, Bloomberg reports. The Kremlin said those operations would not have been possible without NATO support and, as a result, Russia considers that it is already engaged in a confrontation including European nations. In their turn, European diplomats warned the Kremlin this week that NATO is ready to respond to further violations of its airspace with full force, including by shooting down Russian planes, Bloomberg reports after the last week saw airports in Denmark and Norway shuttered following drone sightings and three MiG-31 fighter jets violated Estonian airspace over the Gulf of Finland on Sept. 19.
4. The Russian Defense Ministry continues to artificially inflate its claims of advance in Ukraine to support the Kremlin’s false narrative that a Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable, according to an Institute for the Study of War update on Sept. 25, 2025. “ISW assesses that the Russian MoD is inflating its claimed advances by 36% in Luhansk Oblast; 33% in Donetsk Oblast; 5% in Zaporizhzhia Oblast; 83% in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast; 112% in Kharkiv Oblast; and 6% in Sumy Oblast,” according to the update. Meanwhile, Reuters quotes Ukraine’s military chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi as saying that “Russia's spring and summer offensives this year have failed to meet their goals,” adding that Russia was firing twice as much artillery as Ukraine on the battlefield.
5. Vladimir Putin said Russia will adhere to the New START nuclear weapons treaty with the U.S. for a year after it expires, potentially extending the shelf life of the last major arms control agreement between the two countries, Bloomberg reports. “Russia is prepared to continue, for one year, to adhere to the central quantitative limits under the START Treaty,” Putin said Sept. 22 during a televised meeting of the Russian Security Council. The move aims to avoid a further strategic arms race and “to ensure an acceptable level of predictability and restraint,” he said, adding he expected a similar step from Washington. The proposal could give Moscow and Washington time to negotiate a new version of the last remaining arms control treaty between them. "We believe this measure will only be viable if the United States acts in a similar manner and does not take steps that undermine or disrupt the existing balance of deterrence potentials," Putin said, according to The New York Times.
6. Russia’s economy shows no signs of imminent collapse, but its health has measurably declined, according to reporting from Bloomberg, The Moscow Times, Financial Times, and a now deleted report by Russian newspaper Kommersant. Bloomberg reports that Russia plans to run a budget deficit for a fifth year as declining revenue and increased spending continue to put pressure on the government’s finances amid the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine. The fiscal gap is projected at about 4.6 trillion rubles ($54.8 billion) in 2026, or about 1.6% of gross domestic product, according to the Finance Ministry’s budget presented to the government on Sept. 24. Meanwhile, according to The Moscow Times, Russian-government controlled Kommersant published, then later deleted, a Finance Ministry forecast showing Russia’s GDP growth slowing to 1% this year, down from an earlier 2.5% estimate. 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

Russia is coming close to completing the full integration of the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) into the Russian energy grid. ZNPP occupation director Yuri Chernichuk stated on Sept. 22 that the ZNPP has officially certified all its employees under Russian regulations and that the ZNPP will work in accordance with Russian legislation. (ISW, 09.25.25)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said he has “good memories” of U.S. President Donald Trump and could talk with him again if Washington drops its denuclearization demands, signaling potential dialogue as the U.S. president prepares to travel to the region next month. (Bloomberg, 09.21.25)
• North Korea has intensified its development of drones in response to observations from Ukraine. Russia is directly providing North Korea with drone technologies which will allow North Korea to refine its domestic drone capabilities and may be helping North Korea develop AI-enabled drones. (ISW, 09.25.25)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Iran and Russia signed a $25-billion deal to build nuclear power plants in the Islamic republic, Iranian state media reported Sept. 26. The deal follows a visit to Moscow by Iranian Vice President and nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami this week. (MT/AFP, 09.26.25)
• Russia and China are forcing the U.N. Security Council to vote Sept. 26 on a resolution that would give Iran a six-month extension before sanctions related to its nuclear program are reimposed. (The Hill, 09.26.25)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Russian troops are reported to have executed three civilians in Kozachi Laheri, Kherson Oblast, on Sept. 17–18. Ukrainian prosecutors say drunken Russian servicemen from the 11th Airborne Brigade may have shot the victims following a dispute over alcohol and after one resident tried to intervene. ISW continues to assess that Russian battlefield commanders enable and overlook atrocities against Ukrainian civilians. (ISW, 09.19.25)
• Russian authorities have subjected civilian detainees in Ukrainian areas it occupies to "widespread" and "systematic" torture, including sexual violence, the United Nations said Sept. 23. A U.N. rights office report concluded that Russia "has subjected Ukrainian civilian detainees to consistent patterns of serious violations" of international law since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Speaking from Kyiv, she said Ukraine's top prosecutor had recorded more than 15,000 civilian detentions by Russian authorities, with at least 1,800 people still in custody. (MT/AFP, 09.23.25)
• The United Nations reported that the number of casualties from Russian drone strikes targeting Ukrainian civilians has increased by 40% so far in 2025 as compared to 2024. U.N. Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine Head Erik Møse reported Sept. 22 that the commission found that Russian forces conducted strikes against Ukrainian civilians walking or using transport, residences, and critical infrastructure in Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolaiv oblasts since July 2024. (ISW, 09.22.25)
• Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy co-hosted an event on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly that focused on the nearly 20,000 children forcibly removed by Russia. “Putin has stolen Ukrainian children,” Carney said at the event on Sept. 23. “To lose their child is every parents’ nightmare. For the people of Ukraine, it is a horrifying reality.” (Bloomberg, 09.23.25)
  • U.S. Republicans who have spent nearly six months pushing for new sanctions against Russia believe direct appeals focusing on the plight of children will help make their case to the president that tougher sanctions are needed and finally convince his supporters that the U.S. needs to continue providing support to Ukraine. “It’s a new front against Putin’s war machine that has the best hope of galvanizing the country, whether you are a Republican, Democrat or independent,” Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., said Sept. 24. “Taking children from their families and re-educating them is not American.” (NBC, 09.26.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the past week, Sept. 16–23, 2025, Russia has gained 28 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, down from the previous week’s gain of 91 square miles, which constitutes a decrease of 69%. Since Jan. 1, 2025, average Russian monthly gains have been 169 square miles. In the past four weeks (Aug. 26–Sept. 23), Russian forces gained 206 square miles of Ukrainian territory, a 14% increase from the 180 square miles these forces gained during the previous four-week period (July 29–Aug. 26), according to the Sept. 24, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (RM, 09.25.25)
• According to Ukraine's DeepState OSINT group's map, as of Sept. 23, 2025, Russian forces occupied a total of 114,877 square kilometers of Ukrainian land (44,354 square miles, almost equal to the total area of the U.S. state of Ohio), which constituted 19% of Ukrainian territory. (RM, 09.25.25)
• The Russian Defense Ministry continues to artificially inflate its claims of advance in Ukraine to support the Kremlin’s false narrative that a Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable. ISW assesses that the Russian MoD is inflating its claimed advances by 36% in Luhansk Oblast; 33% in Donetsk Oblast; 5% in Zaporizhzhia Oblast; 83% in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast; 112% in Kharkiv Oblast; and 6% in Sumy Oblast. (ISW, 09.25.25)
• The Russian Defense Ministry’s Sept. 23 statement undermines repeated Russian claims that Russia’s main military objective and territorial demands in Ukraine are limited to Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts. Ongoing Russian efforts to advance into Kharkiv Oblast—an oblast that the Russian government has not illegally annexed and does not currently lay claim to—are an indicator that Russia retains territorial ambitions beyond the four aforementioned oblasts. (ISW, 09.23.25)
• Russia is increasingly relying on a large number of small sabotage groups to pierce through Ukrainian positions as its summer offensive struggles to make significant headway, according to Ukraine’s top military commander. Moscow’s main strategic objective is to reach the intersection of the eastern Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, Oleksandr Syrskyi told reporters in Kyiv on Sept. 25. Russia has concentrated more than 700,000 soldiers along the entire 1,250 kilometers (777 miles) frontline, he added. (Bloomberg, 09.26.25)
• Russia's spring and summer offensives this year have failed to meet their goals, Ukraine's military chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said, adding that Russia was firing twice as much artillery as Ukraine on the battlefield. (Reuters, 09.26.25)
• The successful Ukrainian counterattack in Sumy, which borders Russia, is a rare twist on a battlefield dominated by Moscow’s forces. Since May, Russia has captured between 170 and 215 square miles of territory each month, according to DeepState, a group mapping battlefield changes. Ukrainian commanders emphasize in interviews that they are constantly outmanned and outgunned by Russia. (New York Times, 09.21.25)
• A Russian general who had faced growing criticism from pro-war figures over battlefield setbacks in Ukraine was dismissed from military service, Russian media reported. Sources told the news agency Tatar-Inform that Col. Gen. Alexander Lapin will take a civilian role as an aide to the head of the republic of Tatarstan, where he was born. (MT/AFP, 09.22.25)
• If Russia doesn’t end its invasion, Kremlin officials should ensure they know the location of the nearest bomb shelter, Zelenskyy said in an interview with Axios published Sept. 25. Zelenskyy also said Trump told him Kyiv could respond to Russia's attacks on its energy infrastructure with tit-for-tat strikes, as Ukraine continues to pound Russian refining operations. "If they attack our energy, President Trump supports that we can answer on energy," Zelenskyy said in an interview with Axios released on Sept. 25. He added that Trump had also green-lit retaliatory strikes on Russia's military factories. At the same time, Zelenskyy stressed that Ukraine does not intend to bomb civilians because “we are not terrorists.” However, he also suggested that Russian power centers like the Kremlin could become legitimate targets for Kyiv. (Meduza, 09.25.25, RFE/RL, 09.25.25)
  • Russia on Sept. 26 accused Zelenskyy of making "irresponsible" threats after he said Moscow's top officials should check for bomb shelters near the Kremlin if the country does not stop its war in Ukraine. "Zelenskyy is clearly continuing his desperate efforts. That's why he's issuing threats left and right, which is quite irresponsible," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists. (MT/AFP, 09.26.25)
  • Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, has already reacted to Zelenskyy’s remarks on social media. “What the freak needs to know is that Russia can use weapons a bomb shelter won’t protect against. Americans should also keep this in mind,” he wrote. (Meduza, 09.25.25)
• Trump has received intelligence that Ukraine is preparing an offensive that would require support from American intelligence services, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sept. 24, citing sources familiar with the situation. (Meduza, 09.25.25)
• The Russian military command may have assessed that Russia could afford to create a strategic reserve after Russian losses began to decrease in the summer of 2025. ISW recently assessed that Russian territorial gains were less costly in May to August 2025 compared to the spring of 2025, as Russian forces sustained a lower casualty rate per square kilometer seized. The formation of the strategic reserve may indicate that the Russian military command assesses that Russian forces will be able to continue their current rate of advance using these small group tactics that allow the Russian command to deploy fewer personnel to the frontline. (ISW, 09.21.25)
• The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russia suffered roughly 32,000 to 48,000 casualties per month between January and July 2025—more casualties than the average reported monthly recruitment rate. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russia suffered roughly 29,000 casualties in August 2025 and 13,000 casualties in the first half of September 2025—the only months so far in 2025 with casualty rates below the average reported recruitment rate. (ISW, 09.21.25)
• Russian forces are reportedly rearranging forces to prepare for offensive operations across several sectors of the frontline but lack the forces and means required to sustain these operations simultaneously. (ISW, 09.25.25)
• The Russian offensive in Kupyansk is reportedly vulnerable due to the lack of sufficient forces to sustain simultaneous offensive operations against Kupyansk and several other areas along the frontline. (ISW, 09.25.25)
• In Kyiv, a man will be tried who, according to the investigation, organized a scheme to smuggle draft evaders to Moldova. This was reported by the press service of the Kyiv police. According to the investigation, the accused sought out "clients" among acquaintances aged 18 to 60, promising them assistance in illegally crossing the state border. He priced his "services" at 18,000 U.S. dollars. (Antikor, 09.26.25)
• Russia’s government has drafted stricter penalties for convicted criminals who desert the military after being recruited from prisons to fight in Ukraine. The proposed legislation would increase sentences by up to five years for desertion, unauthorized absence, and feigning illness among soldiers recruited from prisons or detention centers. (Meduza, 09.24.25)
• Belousov claimed that 97% of wounded Russian servicemen currently return to the battlefield and attributed this trend to new medical technologies and the employment of medical professionals on the battlefield. Russian military commanders, however, have been steadily committing wounded personnel into assault operations without proper prior medical treatment and neglecting to evacuate wounded personnel in time. (ISW, 09.24.25)

Friday, Sept. 19, 2025

• On Sept. 19, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Russian forces advanced near Katerynivka, Novomykolaivka and Novoivanivka. (RM, 09.26.25) 

Saturday, Sept. 20, 2025

• On Sept. 20, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Russian forces advanced in Berezove, Novoekonomichne, near Novoivanivka and Romanivka. (RM, 09.26.25)
• Russia launched one of its largest recent overnight assaults on Ukraine, firing about 580–579 drones, 40 missiles (including 32 cruise and 8 ballistic missiles), Ukrainian officials reported Saturday. The attacks targeted infrastructure and residential areas—including a missile with cluster munitions that struck an apartment building in Dnipro—killing at least three people and wounding dozens. Ukrainian counterstrikes reportedly disabled oil facilities in Samara and Saratov regions. The strikes came days after Russian airspace violations in Poland, Romania, and Estonia, prompting NATO to bolster its eastern defenses, though a joint air umbrella for Ukraine remains off the table. (MT/AFP, 09.20.25, RFE/RL, 09.20.25)
• According to the DeepState analytics project, Russianforces advanced on three fronts: near Katerynivka (Kramatorsk district, Donetsk region), Novonikolayevka (Synelnykivsky district, Dnipropetrovsk region), and Novoivanivka (Pologovsky district, Zaporizhzhia region). The exact scale of the advance is unclear, but media report Ukraine has lost an additional 8.4 square kilometers. DeepState previously noted significant Russian gains in the Lyman direction in Donetsk region. (Ukrainska Pravda, 09.20.25)
• Ukraine claimed drone strikes that damaged energy infrastructure deep within Russian territory on Sept. 20, the latest of a series of attacks aimed at denting export revenues and stemming the flow of oil. Kyiv’s forces targeted several pumping stations along the trunk oil pipeline carrying crude oil toward the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, according to a source with Ukraine’s Security Service. The facilities are located some 1,700 kilometers (around 1,060 miles) away from Novorossiysk. Earlier, drones triggered explosions at two oil refineries in the Volga region, according to Ukraine’s General Staff. Blasts were reported at Rosneft’s Saratov and Novokuibyshevsk refineries, the military said on its Facebook page. (Bloomberg, 09.20.25)
• Zelenskyy announced the creation of new Assault Forces (“shturmovyye voyska”) for Ukraine, formalizing existing assault battalions and regiments that have delivered “good results” throughout 2025. Zelenskyy said the new structure would soon be legally established, with a full launch expected within ten days. Notably, the new Assault Forces will feature a dedicated drone component, reflecting evolving battlefield requirements as Russia forms similar units. (Ukrainska Pravda, 09.20.25)

Sunday, Sept. 21, 2025

• On Sept. 21, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Russian forces advanced near Novoivanivka and Novomykolaivka, and that the frontline in Yunakivka has been clarified. (RM, 09.26.25)
• A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed on Sept. 21 that Russian forces developed fiber optic first-person view (FPV) repeater drones that could potentially quadruple the range of frontline drones. (ISW, 09.21.25)

Monday, Sept. 22, 2025

• On Sept. 22, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Russian forces advanced near Stepove, Berezove, Novoivanivka and in Ivanivka. (RM, 09.26.25)
• On Sept. 22 morning, Russian forces struck the Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia with aerial bombs, killing three people and wounding two others, according to Gov. Ivan Fedorov. Overnight on Sept. 21–22, Russian drones also hit two districts of Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region, Gov. Serhii Lysak said, but no casualties were reported. In the Kyiv region, fires broke out in an apartment building and several private homes after Russian drone attacks. One person sustained shrapnel wounds. In Sumy, local officials said industrial facilities and a school building were damaged in Russian strikes. One person was injured. In total, Russia launched 141 drones at Ukraine overnight, including both Shahed strike drones and decoys, according to Ukraine’s Air Force Command. Ukrainian forces said they shot down 132 of them over northern, southern, eastern, and central parts of the country. (Meduza, 09.22.25)
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast on Sept. 22 but did not make confirmed advances. Russian forces attacked in the Kupiansk direction and in the Lyman and Siversk directions but made limited gains, if any. Ukraine repelled Russian attacks near Verbivka, Vovkivka and Nevske. (ISW, 09.22.25)
• Ukrainian drones struck Russian-occupied Crimea overnight on Sept. 21–22. According to the latest figures from Russian authorities, three people were killed and 16 others were injured. (Meduza, 09.22.25)

Tuesday, Sept. 23, 2025

• On Sept. 23, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Russian forces occupied Novomykolayivka and Novoivanivka, and advanced near Kalynivske, Ternove and Novoivanivka. (RM, 09.26.25)
• Overnight on Sept. 22–23, Russian air defense systems destroyed at least 44 Ukrainian drones on approach to Moscow, Mayor Sergey Sobyanin reported on Sept. 23. Russian authorities also reported drone attacks in various other regions. Russia’s Defense Ministry said that its air defenses had shot down 81 Ukrainian drones over eight regions, including Moscow, annexed Crimea and the Black Sea, between Sept. 22 afternoon and midnight. It reported intercepting 69 more drones between midnight and 7 a.m. Sept. 23. (Meduza, 09.23.25, MT/AFP, 09.23.25)
  • More than 200 flights were delayed or canceled in Moscow on Sept. 23 following a mass drone attack on the Russian capital. (MT/AFP, 09.23.25)
• Ukraine’s Air Force reported on Sept. 23 that Russian forces launched a large-scale attack on Ukraine using three Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles and 115 drones, around 60 of which were Shahed types. By 9 a.m. Ukrainian air defenses said they had destroyed or suppressed 103 enemy drones of various types. Strikes were recorded in six locations, with 12 drones hitting targets, while falling debris was reported in eight other areas. In the Odesa region, authorities confirmed the death of a 60-year-old woman and injuries to at least three other people. The attack damaged a hotel, post office, cultural center, and a holiday resort, and left around 800 residents without electricity. In Zaporizhzhia, one man was killed when Russian bombs struck residential and industrial areas. In the Kirovohrad region, a drone strike sparked a fire at an infrastructure facility, though no casualties were reported. (RFE/RL, 09.23.25)
• The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said on Sept. 23 that its forces had struck two dispatcher stations of oil transportation complexes in Russia and an airfield in Crimea. The strikes were aimed at reducing Russia's offensive capabilities and disrupting fuel and ammunition supplies to its military units, the statement said. (RFE/RL, 09.23.25)
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Borova, Novopavlivka and in the Dobropillya tactical area and western Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and near Siversk. (ISW, 09.23.25)

Wednesday, Sept. 24, 2025

• On Sept. 24, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Russian forces advanced in Serebryanske forestry and near Berezove. (RM, 09.26.25)
• Two key oil ports on Russia’s Black Sea coast halted loading of tankers after overnight warnings of drone attacks, the latest sign of how Ukraine is disrupting its foes energy infrastructure. (Bloomberg, 09.24.25)
• Ukrainian drones have struck a major Gazprom oil and petrochemical facility in the republic of Bashkortostan for the second time in less than a week, regional authorities said early Sept. 24. Bashkortostan regional head Radiy Khabirov said the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat complex, located more than 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) from the Ukrainian border, was targeted in the attack. He did not report any casualties and said the extent of damage was still being assessed. Khabirov did not say how many drones were involved or when the strike occurred. (MT/AFP, 09.24.25)
• The Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which handles most of Kazakhstan’s crude exports through Russia to the Black Sea, said its office in Novorossiysk was damaged in a drone strike. (Bloomberg, 09.24.25)
• Overnight Russian air strikes burned out apartments and hit civilian buildings in three Ukrainian regions on Sept. 24. (RFE/RL, 09.24.25)
• At least two people were killed and at least three others injured in a Ukrainian drone attack on the Russian city of Novorossiysk on Sept. 24, Krasnodar Gov. Veniamin Kondratyev reported. (Meduza, 09.24.25)
• Former Ukrainian Command-in-Chief and current Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.K. Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi assessed on Sept. 24 that Russian drone strikes and innovations have forced Ukrainian forces to disperse their defenses on the frontline and that this dispersion is blurring the frontline and that the “kill zone” extends 20 kilometers from the frontline. Zaluzhnyi noted that Russian forces have developed infiltration tactics to take advantage of the resulting gaps in Ukrainian defenses, most notably near Dobropillya and Kupyansk. Zaluzhnyi also assessed that drones with artificial intelligence capabilities present a new threat on the battlefield. (ISW, 09.24.25)

Thursday, Sept. 25, 2025

• On Sept. 25, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Russian forces advanced near Novoivanivka, Olhivske, Berezove and Shandryholove. (RM, 09.26.25)
• Drone debris fell near a “major enterprise” in the Belorechensky District of Russia’s Krasnodar Krai overnight, sparking a fire, according to the regional emergency task force. (Meduza, 09.25.25)

Friday, Sept. 26, 2025

• The Afipsky refinery in southern Russia caught fire overnight as Ukraine continues to strike its enemy’s energy infrastructure, exacerbating fuel shortages. The attack is at least the 12th this month as Ukraine has intensified drone strikes after efforts by the U.S. to broker a peace deal stalled. The Afipsky refinery, one of the largest in southern Russia, has a processing capacity of 9.1 million tons of crude a year and operates two primary processing units. (MT/AFP, 09.26.25, Bloomberg, 09.26.25)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

Saturday, Sept. 20, 2025

• The European Union is making progress on a plan to provide loans to Ukraine using Russia’s immobilized central-bank assets—part of efforts to meet Kyiv’s rising financial needs as the 3 1/2-year war grinds on. “There is a willingness to engage constructively” on the so-called reparation loans, Commissioner for Economy Valdis Dombrovskis said Saturday after a two-day meeting of EU finance ministers in Copenhagen at which the proposal was outlined. “Member states see it as a possible way forward,” he added,” and “we need to prepare it all relatively quickly.” (Bloomberg, 09.20.25)

Wednesday, Sept. 24, 2025

• Zelenskyy issued a stark warning to world leaders gathered at the United Nations in New York on Sept. 24, saying more weapons were needed to defend his country after international institutions had failed to maintain peace. “No one but ourselves can guarantee our security,” he said in an address to the U.N. General Assembly. “International law does not fully function without powerful friends ready to defend it. Even having friends won’t work without weapons. The only guarantee of security is friends and weapons.” “We are now living through the most destructive arms race in human history,” he added, saying Russia was to blame. “The 21st century is hardly different from the last: a people who desire peace must work on armament,” he said. “It is abnormal, but this is the reality—weapons decide who survives.” (New York Times, 09.24.25)

Thursday, Sept. 25, 2025

• German Chancellor Friedrich Merz threw his backing behind a European Union plan to leverage frozen Russian assets to provide Ukraine with an interest-free loan of nearly €140 billion ($164 billion) to bolster its defense capabilities. “We must systematically and massively raise the costs of Russia’s aggression,” Merz wrote on Sept. 25 in the Financial Times. The funding must “secure Ukraine’s military resilience for several years.” (Bloomberg, 09.25.25)
• Zelenskyy said he asked Trump for a specific new weapons system on Sept. 23 that would force Russian President Vladimir Putin to come to the negotiating table, though did not specify what it was. He added that if the U.S. supplies Ukraine with long-range weapons, the country will use them. (Meduza, 09.25.25)

Friday, Sept. 26, 2025

• European Union ambassadors will begin discussions on Sept. 26 on a plan to provide Ukraine with €140 billion ($164 billion) in fresh loans using frozen Russian Central Bank assets. Under a proposal seen by Bloomberg, cash raised from the roughly €180 billion in Russian assets held at Euroclear would be gradually redirected to the EU to enable it to issue loans to Kyiv. (Bloomberg, 09.26.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

Friday, Sept. 19, 2025

• According to an internal memo obtained by AP, Russia and Vietnam are leveraging profits from their Rusvietpetro joint oil and gas ventures to pay for Russian arms and sidestep Western sanctions. Profits are routed through a series of joint ventures to avoid SWIFT-based transactions. The scheme was outlined before Putin’s June 2024 Vietnam visit, highlighting Moscow’s efforts to cement anti-Western strategic ties. (ISW, 09.19.25)

Monday, Sept. 22, 2025

• Zelenskyy on Sept. 22 urged those gathering for the United Nations General Assembly to place “real, powerful pressure on Russia” to end the war it began more than three years ago. The Ukrainian leader called on Europe, the United States, the Group of 7 and the Group of 20 countries to place “strong sanctions, strong political pressure and accountability for Russia’s war.” (New York Times, 09.22.25)
• Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said he wants to see western allies impose secondary sanctions on Russia quickly in order to dramatically ramp up pressure on Putin. Carney said he’s personally advocated their use in discussions with allies, and sees it as “possible” that the Trump administration and European countries will eventually move forward on it. (Bloomberg, 09.22.25)
• Russia has asked the U.N.’s aviation body to ease sanctions on spare parts and overflights that were imposed over the invasion of Ukraine, Reuters reported Sept. 22, citing documents it had seen and a source familiar with the matter. In a working paper seen by Reuters, Russia argued to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) that the sanctions go against global rules. (MT/AFP, 09.22.25)

Thursday, Sept. 25, 2025

• Shares in Italian luxury group Brunello Cucinelli tumbled on Sept. 25 after a London-based short seller alleged it had “misled shareholders” over its operations in Russia, reigniting controversy around the brand’s conduct in the country. (Financial Times, 09.25.25)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Saturday, Sept. 20, 2025

• Putin has concluded that military escalation—including stepped-up drone and missile strikes on Kyiv’s energy and infrastructure networks—is the best way to push Ukraine into talks on his terms, believing Trump will not significantly bolster Kyiv’s defenses, Bloomberg reports. “In the month following the talks, drone and missile attacks increased by about 46%… So far in Sept., Russia has fired 3,500 drones, almost 190 missiles and over 2,500 bombs,” according to Ukrainian Air Force data. Analysts say restraint from Washington is emboldening the Kremlin as it pursues a war of attrition. (Bloomberg News, 09.20.25)
• Zelenskyy said there may never be a final peace treaty ending the war with Russia, and Ukraine is not considering a “Korean,” “Finnish,” or any similar model to end the conflict. In remarks to journalists, Zelenskyy emphasized that security guarantees for Ukraine should not wait for a final agreement; even a ceasefire would warrant such support. He argued these guarantees are essential to prevent future Russian aggression, stating, “No one knows what the outcome will be, but we know the first step.” (RBC.ua, 09.20.25)

Tuesday, Sept. 23, 2025

• For months, Trump has insisted that Ukraine must give up territory to strike a peace deal with Russia. After meeting with Zelenskyy at the United Nations Sept. 23, Trump’s stance appears to have shifted. Trump said on social media that Kyiv was in a position, with the support of Europe, to “fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form.” Trump said his views had been altered because he was beginning to “fully understand” the military and economic situation, although several European officials suspected that by distancing himself from the war. (New York Times, 09.23.25, New York Times, 09.23.25)
  • “Russia has been fighting aimlessly for three and a half years a War that should have taken a Real Military Power less than a week to win,” Trump wrote, adding it made the country look like “a paper tiger.” He also wrote about gasoline lines and the vast amounts of money being spent by Russia on the war. “Putin and Russia are in BIG economic trouble,” he said. (New York Times, 09.23.25)
  • Hours after he declared Ukraine could “win” over the Russians, perhaps even taking land beyond its own boundaries, he was contradicted by his own secretary of state and acting national security adviser, Marco Rubio. Rubio said the war in Ukraine “cannot end militarily,” and predicted “it will end at the negotiating table,” reflecting Trump’s previous position. (New York Times, 09.23.25)
  • Zelenskyy said he was surprised by Trump’s shift in position regarding Russia’s war with Ukraine and that he believed that he and Trump have a “better relation than before.” Zelenskyy also said he thought Trump’s shift on the role of land concessions could play a part in ending the war. When asked on Fox News if he thought Trump’s position on the war had changed, Zelenskyy replied he believed it had—and that Trump appeared to understand that the two countries could not “swap territory.” (New York Times, 09.23.25, Washington Post, 09.24.25)
  • “Russia is more associated with a bear. There are no ‘paper bears,’” Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov told RBC Radio in an interview. “Russia maintains its resilience and stability.” Kyiv is “trying to demonstrate to their sponsors in Europe and their handlers that they can fight, but they should not forget that with each passing day when the Ukrainian side refuses to negotiate, the negotiating position of the Ukrainian side will only worsen,” he said. He also said Putin “continues to highly value Trump’s willingness to help” find a resolution to the war. (Bloomberg, 09.23.25, Washington Post, 09.24.25)
  • “Behind this surprising optimism lies the announcement of reduced U.S. involvement and the shifting of responsibility for ending the war to Europe,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said in a social media post Sept. 25. “Better truth than illusions.” (Bloomberg, 09.25.25)
• The Kremlin on Sept. 24 dismissed Trump’s suggestion that Ukraine could win in the war with Russia, insisting that Moscow would press on with what it calls its “special military operation” because it sees “no alternative.” “Mr. Trump heard about what’s happening from Zelenskyy’s perspective. And, apparently, at this point, that version is what led to the assessment we heard,” Peskov said in an interview with RBC Radio. In a press briefing later in the day, he told reporters that it would be a “mistake” to think Ukraine could recapture territory. He added that Moscow is determined to address the “root causes” of the war in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 09.24.25)

Wednesday, Sept. 24, 2025

• Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, met in New York on Sept. 24, just one day after Trump said Russia looked “like a paper tiger” as the conflict with Ukraine dragged on, suggesting it may lose the war. The American and Russian officials discussed the need for a resolution to the war, according to statements from each side. (New York Times, 09.24.25)
  • The longer Russian statement emphasized “understanding” between Russia and the United States, noted their “mutual interest in finding peaceful solutions” and agreement to continue talking, and denounced “schemes promoted by Kyiv and certain European capitals, aimed at dragging out the conflict.” The Russian statement also referred to a “synchronization of watches” on “the entire range of the bilateral agenda.” But Lavrov reiterated Moscow’s need to “eliminate the root causes of the Ukrainian conflict.” (New York Times, 09.24.25, RFE/RL, 09.25.25)
  • The U.S. statement struck a very different tone. According to Tommy Pigott, a State Department spokesman who issued a terse, 40-word statement on the meeting, Rubio “reiterated President Trump’s call for the killing to stop and the need for Moscow to take meaningful steps toward a durable resolution of the Russia-Ukraine war.” (New York Times, 09.24.25)
• U.S. Vice President JD Vance said on Sept. 24 that Trump "doesn't feel like they're putting enough on the table to end the war… If the Russians refuse to negotiate in good faith, I think it's going to be very, very bad for their country." (RFE/RL, 09.25.25)
• Zelenskyy reiterated his commitment to engaging in peace negotiations and holding elections in accordance with the Ukrainian Constitution and Ukrainian law. Zelenskyy stated on Sept. 24 in an interview with Fox News that Ukraine is ready to end the war as soon as possible. (ISW, 09.24.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

Friday, Sept. 19, 2025

• EU Defense and Space Commissioner Andrius Kubilius will convene EU defense ministers to discuss a defensive “drone wall” on the bloc’s eastern border in response to Russia’s Sept. 9–10 drone incursion into Poland. The project aims to deploy sensors, jamming, and defensive systems, with completion possible within a year and Ukrainian involvement. NATO allies also delivered the first U.S. weapons to Ukraine purchased under the PURL initiative. (ISW, 09.19.25)

Saturday, Sept. 20, 2025

• Estonia and NATO allies condemned Russia after three MiG-31 fighter jets violated Estonian airspace over the Gulf of Finland on Sept. 19, remaining for about 12 minutes before being intercepted by Italian F-35s on a NATO mission. Sweden and Finland also scrambled rapid reaction aircraft. Estonia immediately called for NATO Article 4 consultations—its second urgent appeal in two weeks—amid heightened regional tensions following Russian drone and helicopter incursions in Poland, Romania, and Estonia. Russia denied any violation, but Baltic states said the incident was "unprecedentedly brazen." (MT/AFP, 09.20.25)
  • Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said Russia was testing NATO’s readiness to retaliate with its series of incursions along the eastern flank of the alliance. (Bloomberg, 09.22.23)
  • Czech President Petr Pavel, a career soldier who was a senior NATO official as head of its Military Committee, suggested shooting down Russian planes if necessary in remarks to Czech media on Sept. 20. (RFE/RL, 09.22.25)
  • Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Sept. 22 that Russia's military operates "strictly within the confines of international law, including those pertaining to flights." Peskov described Estonia's version of events as "empty, unfounded and a continuation of the country's utterly unstoppable policy of escalating tensions and provoking a confrontational atmosphere." (MT/AFP, 09.22.25)

Monday, Sept. 22, 2025

• Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Poland is prepared to shoot down foreign aircraft that cross into its territory without authorization after a series of Russian incursions into NATO airspace. “We will most certainly take decisions to shoot down flying objects when they violate our territory and fly over Poland,” Tusk told reporters in northern Poland Sept. 22 when asked about the prospect of downing Russian jets. “There is no room for discussion here.” (Bloomberg, 09.22.25)
• Trump said he would help defend Poland and the Baltic states in the event of an escalation by Russia. “Yeah, I would,” the U.S. president told a reporter when asked about it. He did not specify what form that assistance might take. (Meduza, 09.22.25)
• Estonia is set to ask NATO allies for extra air-defense assistance over the Baltic Sea as the alliance’s eastern members try to respond to the third violation of NATO airspace this month by Russia. Estonia also invoked Article 4 of NATO’s treaty, which triggers consultations and can open a path to coordinated action among allies. (Bloomberg, 09.22.25)
• Drone sightings forced the authorities in Denmark and Norway to close the main airports in Copenhagen and Oslo for several hours overnight, causing widespread flight disruptions that were expected to last into Sept. 23, with Russia a suspect in a potential hybrid attack.  Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said she did “not rule out” Russian involvement in what she described as the “most serious attack to date.” Oslo airport in Norway was also shut for a few hours on Sept. 23 after unidentified drones were spotted. The Norwegian prime minister separately disclosed that Russian jets had breached his country’s airspace on three occasions this year. (New York Times, 09.22.25, Financial Times, 09.23.25, Bloomberg, 09.22.25)
• Turkey on Sept. 22 deployed an advanced AWACS radar plane to Lithuania, signaling NATO is stepping up defenses in the Baltic region after Russian violations of its airspace. The mission was to continue through Sept. 25. (Bloomberg, 09.24.25)

Tuesday, Sept. 23, 2025

• Speaking at the U.N. Security Council on Sept. 23, Zelenskyy said that Russia is dependent on China and that Beijing could stop the war in Ukraine if it wanted. “If China truly wanted this war to stop, it could compel Moscow to end the invasion,” Zelenskyy said. “Without China, Putin’s Russia is nothing. Yet too often, China stays silent and distant instead of active for peace.” (Meduza, 09.24.25)
• NATO promised a “robust” response to Russian incursions into its airspace and said it would use all options, including military, to defend itself. “Allies will employ, in accordance with international law, all necessary military and non-military tools to defend ourselves and deter all threats from all directions,” NATO said in an emailed statement Sept. 23. “Allies will not be deterred by these and other irresponsible acts by Russia.” (Bloomberg, 09.23.25)
  • Estonia’s prime minister said NATO will be ready to respond if Russian forces repeat a violation into the Baltic nation’s airspace. (Bloomberg, 09.23.25)
• Trump said that NATO countries should shoot down Russian military aircraft that enter their airspaces. Asked if the U.S. would back up its allies in that situation, he said it “depends on the circumstance.” (New York Times, 09.23.25)
• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reaffirmed the American commitment to NATO after incursions by Russian aircraft into the alliance’s airspace that have shaken governments on its eastern flank. “We will work with our allies to defend every inch of NATO territory,” Rubio said Sept. 23 in comments to CBS News as Trump prepared to address the United Nations General Assembly. (Bloomberg, 09.23.25)
  • Rubio also pushed back on Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s assertion that his country was prepared to shoot down foreign aircraft that enter its territory after a series of Russian incursions into NATO airspace. “I don’t think anyone said about shooting down Russian jets unless they’re attacking,” Rubio said Sept. 23, striking a discordant note just one day after Tusk delivered a stark warning to the Kremlin. “I think what you have seen is NATO responding to those intrusions the way we respond to them all the time, and that is when they enter your airspace, or your defense zone, you go up and you intercept them.” (Bloomberg, 09.22.25)
• Latvia’s President Edgars Rinkevics said NATO should be ready to respond to Russia with force to prevent future airspace incursions. “If Russian aircraft keep flying, keep violating our airspace, NATO airspace, the only way to stop them is with a show of force,” Rinkevics said Sept. 23. (Bloomberg, 09.23.25)
• German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil said recent Russian aerial incursions on NATO’s eastern flank more than ever justify his government’s move to massively ramp up spending on the armed forces. (Bloomberg, 09.23.25)
• The Kremlin on Sept. 23 rejected allegations that Russia was behind unidentified drones that flew over the capitals of Denmark and Norway the night before, disrupting air traffic and forcing dozens of flights to be diverted or canceled. Zelenskyy directly blamed Russia but offered no evidence. “Every time, we hear the same baseless claims. A side that claims to take a serious and responsible position should not be making such accusations time after time,” Peskov said. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte cautioned that it was “too early to say” whether Russia was responsible for the incident. (MT/AFP, 09.23.25)
• An ally of Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who has defied European Union consensus by maintaining ties with Moscow, lashed out at EU plans for a “drone wall” on its eastern flank that doesn’t include Slovakia or Hungary. (Bloomberg, 09.23.25)
• Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) on Sept. 23 accused the European Union of planning to “occupy” Moldova with NATO forces after parliamentary elections this coming weekend. In a statement, the SVR claimed that NATO was massing troops in neighboring Romania and in the Ukrainian port city of Odesa, either to quell protests after Sunday’s vote or in preparation for elections in Moldova’s breakaway, pro-Russian region of Transnistria in November. (MT/AFP, 09.23.25)
• “We do not consent to Moscow’s ruthless acts of provocation against us and against other European nations,” Polish President Karol Nawrocki said, adding that the world has entered a “new and dangerous era of rivalry” where “naked and brutal force” supersedes law. He framed the conflict in Ukraine as a “test” to see how far Russia could go, and indicated that without holding Moscow accountable, its attacks could widen. (New York Times, 09.23.25)
• Poland will reopen its border with Belarus this week, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Sept. 23, two weeks after it was sealed during Russian-led military exercises. The closure of the border was announced on Sept. 9, ahead of the Zapad-2025 exercise, in which forces from Russia and Belarus simulated war with the West. (MT/AFP, 09.23.25)
• Sweden and Poland launched a military exercise named Gotland Sentry to boost defenses of the strategic island in the Baltic Sea as concerns over an increasingly assertive Russia are rising in the region. (Bloomberg, 09.23.25)

Wednesday, Sept. 24, 2025

• “The facts are simple: stopping this war now and with it the global arms race is cheaper than building underground kindergartens or massive bunkers for critical infrastructure later," Zelenskyy told the U.N. General Assembly at its annual meeting. "Stopping Putin now is cheaper than trying to protect every port and every ship from terrorists with sea drones. Stopping Russia now is cheaper than wondering who will be the first to build a simple drone carrying a nuclear warhead. So we must use everything we have to force the aggressor to stop." (RFE/RL, 09.24.25)
• Zelenskyy told "The Axios Show" on Sept. 24 night that the "very" weak NATO response had encouraged Putin to probe further. "They have to shoot down everything," Zelenskyy said, concurring with Trump. "If the jets are in your space, you have to block it." Zelenskyy said that not all NATO leaders were afraid to take such action, but most are. The reason, he said, is they think "Russia is crazy" - and "they are right." (Axios, 09.26.25)
• Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov outlined 10 priority objectives for the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) during the Russian MoD Collegium on Aug. 29. These objectives indicate that the Kremlin is committed to its war in Ukraine and may be preparing for a larger confrontation with NATO in the medium term. (ISW, 09.24.25)
• Russian jamming originating from Kaliningrad Oblast likely disrupted the GPS on Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles’ plane flying to Lithuania on Sept. 24. An anonymous defense source told Reuters that they did not think that the disruption was targeted and that such disruptions are common on the route. (ISW, 09.24.25)

Thursday, Sept. 25, 2025

• European officials fear Trump’s latest rhetoric on Ukraine, declaring on social media that Kyiv could “fight and win” all its land “with the help of the EU,” aims to set them an impossible mission that will allow the U.S. president to shift blame away from Washington if Kyiv falters in the war or runs short of cash. EU leaders have concluded Trump is no longer a reliable ally, officials said. (Financial Times, 09.25.25)
  • In a recent poll of residents in the EU’s five most populous countries for the French journal Le Grand Continent, 44% of respondents said they consider Trump an enemy of Europe, with only 10% considering the U.S. president a friend to their continent. (FT, 09.21.25, RM, 09.26.25)
• U.S. fighter jets scrambled on Sept. 24 to intercept four Russian military aircraft flying near Alaska, the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) reported a day later. The two Tu-95s and two Su-35s entered the Alaskan Air Defense Identification Zone—international airspace adjacent to U.S. and Canadian territory. NORAD deployed an E-3 surveillance plane, four F-16 fighters, and four KC-135 tankers to “positively identify and intercept” the Russian aircraft. (Meduza, 09.25.25)
• Denmark is probing potential Russian involvement after enduring the second drone attack this week as authorities are bracing for the possibility of more incidents. Large professional drones spotted at several airports and military air bases in Denmark disrupted flights and sparked a major police operation overnight. Speaking at a news conference Sept. 25 morning, Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said “it’s definitely not a coincidence, it looks systematic.” (Bloomberg, 09.25.25)
  • Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof warned Russia over further incursions into NATO airspace, as the allies struggle to coordinate a response to Moscow’s escalating violations. Schoof affirmed the possibility that NATO members may shoot down a Russian plane in the future over such acts. (Bloomberg, 09.25.25)
  • Russia’s embassy in Denmark on Sept. 25 dismissed suggestions that Moscow was involved in a series of drone flights over the Nordic country this week, calling the unexplained incidents a “staged provocation.” Russia’s embassy in Denmark claimed the drone flights would be “used as a pretext for further escalating tension in the interests of forces seeking by all means to prolong the Ukrainian conflict and extend it to other countries.” (MT/AFP, 09.25.25)
• Refusal to comply with the principles of the U.N. Charter leads to an increase in global instability and multiplies regional conflicts. This was stated by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at the G-20 meeting held within the framework of the U.N. General Assembly. "The numerous crises in Africa, largely inherited from colonial times, have not been resolved for decades," Lavrov said. "Another clear example is the crisis in Ukraine provoked by the collective West, with whose hands NATO and the European Union want to declare, have already declared war on my country and are actively participating in it." (Kommersant.ru, 09.25.25) Note that Lavrov’s statement is a reminder that Russia has declared, in violation of international law, that the four easternmost regions of Ukraine—Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia—are Russian territory, so as an act of self-defense (self-defense is permitted under Article 51 of the U.N. Charter) Russia’s “Special Military Operation” would not count as “refusal to comply” with the principles of the U.N. Charter.*
• Western militaries can’t keep shooting down incoming drones with expensive missiles, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said on Sept. 25, adding that NATO is rapidly learning from Ukraine on how to counter Russian drones and will deploy new technologies in coming weeks. (Bloomberg, 09.25.25)
• German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned that Russia might deploy nuclear weapons in space, saying that Germany would spend billions to protect its satellites and that NATO allies should consider building “offensive capabilities” in orbit. (Bloomberg, 09.25.25)

Friday, Sept. 26, 2025

• European diplomats warned the Kremlin this week that NATO is ready to respond to further violations of its airspace with full force, including by shooting down Russian planes, according to officials familiar with the exchange. At a tense meeting in Moscow, British, French and German envoys addressed their concerns about an incursion by three MiG-31 fighter jets over Estonia last week, according to the officials. Following the conversation, they concluded that the violation had been a deliberate tactic ordered by Russian commanders. During the talks, a Russian diplomat told the Europeans that the incursions were a response to Ukrainian attacks on Crimea, the officials said. The Kremlin said those operations would not have been possible without NATO support and, as a result, Russia considers that it is already engaged in a confrontation including European nations. (Bloomberg, 09.26.25)
  • Asked about the warnings, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said “I don’t even want to talk about this, because it’s a very irresponsible statement,” the state-run Tass news agency reported on Sept. 26. (Bloomberg, 09.26.25)
• Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen warned Danes to brace for more hybrid attacks, pointing to Russia as Europe’s top security threat as suspected drone sightings occurred for the third time in a week. The warning came just hours before authorities closed the airspace over Aalborg airport and military air base over suspicion of illegal drone activity. (Bloomberg, 09.26.25)
• German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said NATO is ready to defend its territory against any Russian incursion while also stressing that the military alliance has no desire to escalate conflict with the Kremlin. “Our countries do not have any interest in escalation, but Russia perhaps wants to lead us into a trap,” Wadephul said Sept. 26 in an interview. “So we are ready to defend our territory,” he added. “And Russia has to know that there will be no chance to win against us.” (Bloomberg, 09.26.25)
• Several European Union defense ministers are urgently holding talks on a "drone wall" after Russian drones allegedly violated Polish and Romanian airspace this month, and unauthorized drone incursions forced intermittent shutdowns at Danish and Norwegian airports. The Sept. 26 video conference -- convened by EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius and involving several states on NATO's eastern flank, as well as Denmark and Ukraine -- aims to coordinate sensors, jammers and rapid-response rules so that small, cheap unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) can be detected and neutralized before they threaten European civil aviation or critical bases. (RFE/RL, 09.26.25)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Russia has agreed to equip and train a Chinese airborne battalion and share its expertise in airdropping armored vehicles that analysts say could boost Beijing’s capacity to seize Taiwan, according to newly obtained documents that show the two nations’ deepening military cooperation. (Washington Post, 09.26.25)
• A Chinese-owned cargo vessel has docked in the port of Sevastopol for the first time since Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, the Financial Times reported Sept. 23, citing satellite images, photographs and transponder data. The series of stops by a foreign tanker in Sevastopol, which is internationally recognized as part of Ukraine and is barred by Western sanctions, is unprecedented. (MT/AFP, 09.23.25)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• Putin said Russia will adhere to the New START nuclear weapons treaty with the U.S. for a year after it expires, potentially extending the shelf life of the last major arms control agreement between the two countries. “Russia is prepared to continue, for one year, to adhere to the central quantitative limits under the START Treaty,” the president said on Sept. 22 during a televised meeting of the Russian Security Council. The move aims to avoid a further strategic arms race and “to ensure an acceptable level of predictability and restraint,” he said, adding he expected a similar step from Washington. The proposal could give Moscow and Washington time to negotiate a new version of the last remaining arms control treaty between them. "We believe this measure will only be viable if the United States acts in a similar manner and does not take steps that undermine or disrupt the existing balance of deterrence potentials," Putin said. (Bloomberg, 09.22.25, New York Times, 09.22.25, RFE/RL, 09.22.25)
  • “The possibility of extending commitments under New START by a year is welcome news," Meghan O’Sullivan, director of the Belfer Center, said Sept. 22. “Without such action the world would soon face—for the first time in decades—the absence of any limits on the nuclear arsenals of the United States and Russia.” But she also noted that “the Trump administration must make clear that President Putin cannot play the ‘good guy’ with Washington while acting as the ‘bad guy’ in Europe. The United States should signal both its willingness to pursue talks to reduce nuclear risks and its determination not to sacrifice a just peace in Ukraine.” (New York Times, 09.22.25)
• “Now the question is only who will first create a simple drone capable of delivering nuclear warheads,” Zelenskyy said during his Sept. 24 speech at the U.N. General Assembly. (New York Times, 09.24.25)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• The future, Zelenskyy said during his Sept. 24 speech at the U.N. General Assembly, would be even more dangerous with the integration of AI into drones, and he called for regulation of the technology. “It won’t be long before drones appear that will attack critical infrastructure completely autonomously, without human involvement,” he warned. “We need rules regarding the use of AI in weapons. This is as urgent as stopping the spread of nuclear weapons.” (New York Times, 09.24.25)
• For months, Western intelligence and law enforcement officials have warned of an alarming trend: random people—"freelancers," "proxies," "disposable agents"—recruited, usually via Telegram, usually unwittingly, to perform various surreptitious, sometimes destructive tasks like surveillance, arson, sabotage, and spreading disinformation. The agencies doing the recruiting and hiring, authorities say, are often directly or indirectly linked to Russia. That includes "The Military Intelligence of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation," known widely as GRU. (RFE/RL, 09.25.25)

Energy exports from CIS:

• In his speech to the United Nations General Assembly on Sept. 23, Trump railed against the European Union for keeping the Russian war effort against Ukraine alive by purchasing Russia’s oil and natural gas. “They have to immediately cease all energy purchases from Russia,” Trump said. “Otherwise we are all wasting a lot of time.” The European Union’s top diplomat also urged Hungary and other bloc members that still buy Russian energy to end their purchases, even as the Hungarian foreign minister said his country had no plans to do so. (New York Times, 09.23.25, Bloomberg, 09.24.25)
• Trump on Sept. 25 pressed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to stop buying oil from Russia and left the door open to Ankara obtaining F-35 fighter jets, as the leaders discussed trade and geopolitical flashpoints. (Bloomberg, 09.25.25)
• French President Emmanuel Macron called the European Union’s remaining energy imports from Russia “very marginal,” challenging Donald Trump’s calls for the bloc to reduce its dependence if it wants the U.S. to step up pressure on Moscow to end the war in Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 09.21.25)
• The European Union is considering trade measures to target its remaining Russian oil imports, according to people familiar with the matter. The bloc’s executive arm is reviewing continued imports of Russian oil via the Druzhba pipeline that feeds Hungary and Slovakia, and the move under consideration would mostly affect those supplies if they’re not phased out, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations. (Bloomberg, 09.20.25)
  • The Hungarian government will follow its own interests on energy purchases and need not accept the U.S. administration’s guidance on the matter, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban told state media. (Bloomberg, 09.26.25)
• Russia’s seaborne crude exports climbed to a 16-month high in the past four weeks, a period in which the nation’s own oil refineries have been forced to scale back production because of Ukrainian drone attacks. (Bloomberg, 09.23.25)
• A liquefied natural gas tanker docked at a new production line at a U.S.-sanctioned Russian facility in the Arctic, indicating that Moscow is pressing ahead with expanding energy exports despite western restrictions. (Bloomberg, 09.23.25)
• Russia’s government plans to ban diesel exports for some companies until the end of the year amid Ukrainian drone strikes on nation’s refineries. (Bloomberg, 09.25.25)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Putin granted citizenship to Tara Reade, a former Biden Senate aide who accused the then-future president of sexual assault in 2020. The move highlights Russia’s continued efforts to provide sanctuary to Americans who have become controversial figures in U.S. politics, similar to Edward Snowden’s receipt of Russian citizenship in September 2022. (Meduza, 09.22.25)
• Metropolitan Tikhon Shevkunov, a senior Russian Orthodox Church bishop often described Putin’s spiritual adviser has praised the late American conservative Charlie Kirk as a “martyr,” saying his death could inspire Russian missionaries. (MT/AFP, 09.22.25)
• A federal grand jury in Virginia indicted former FBI director James Comey on Sept. 25 on charges of making false statements and obstruction, days after Trump demanded the prosecution. Comey had been under investigation for what prosecutors said were lies he told in 2020 congressional testimony during a hearing about the bureau’s earlier investigation of the Trump campaign’s ties to Russia in the 2016 election. (Wall Street Journal, 09.25.25)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia plans to run a budget deficit for a fifth year as declining revenue and increased spending continue to put pressure on the government’s finances amid the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine. The fiscal gap is projected at about 4.6 trillion rubles ($54.8 billion) in 2026, or about 1.6% of gross domestic product, according to the Finance Ministry’s budget presented to the government on Sept. 24. The government laid out plans to spend 44.9 trillion rubles in 2026, up roughly 2% from what was originally forecast for next year. Revenue is projected at 40.3 trillion rubles, nearly 4% less than the earlier projection. (Bloomberg, 09.24.25)
• Russia’s government has announced plans to raise the rate of value added tax from 20 to 22% starting next year, backtracking on Putin’s promises as the war against Ukraine drags on the economy. The proposed tax hike comes as the federal budget deficit reached 4.88 trillion rubles ($61.1 billion) between January and July, already exceeding the government’s full-year target. (Bloomberg, 09.24.25, MT/AFP, 09.24.25, Financial Times, 09.24.25)
• Kommersant published, then later deleted, a Finance Ministry forecast showing Russia’s GDP growth slowing to 1% this year, down from an earlier 2.5% estimate. For 2026, policymakers now anticipate economic growth of just 0.5%, far below previous projections of 3%. (MT/AFP, 09.24.25)
• Russia intends to keep military expenditures at a high level over the next three years, undermining notions the Kremlin is preparing to end its war on Ukraine any time soon. Defense spending will be trimmed slightly to 12.6 trillion rubles ($151 billion) next year before rising again to 13.6 trillion rubles in 2027 to roughly match to this year’s level, Interfax reported, citing unidentified people familiar with the draft budget documents. Outlays are projected at 13.05 trillion rubles in 2028, according to the news service. (Bloomberg, 09.26.25)
• Gas stations across Russia have started rationing fuel sales as drone strikes on oil refineries by Ukraine deepen a supply crisis, the pro-Kremlin daily Izvestia reported Sept. 24. Stations in several regions are limiting drivers to 10-20 liters of gasoline per purchase or offering only diesel, Pavel Bazhenov, president of the Independent Fuel Union (NTS), told Izvestia. (MT/AFP, 09.24.25)
• Putin and Russian senators finalized a major judicial reshuffle on Sept. 24, appointing a new prosecutor general and confirming a new chief justice of Russia’s Supreme Court. The upper-house Federation Council unanimously approved Igor Krasnov for a six-year term as chief justice. (MT/AFP, 09.24.25)
• Russian lawmakers on Sept. 25 approved a bill that would allow law enforcement authorities to more easily bring charges against people or entities designated as “foreign agents.” If signed into law, a single violation of the “foreign agents” law could trigger criminal prosecution. (MT/AFP, 09.25.25)
• The human rights situation in Russia has "steadily deteriorated" since President Vladimir Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, a U.N. expert said, describing a "seismic decline" that has hit vulnerable groups such as minorities and migrants particularly hard. "Over the past 3 1/2 years, Russian authorities have pursued a deliberate strategy to wipe out dissent through intensified censorship, politically motivated prosecutions," and other measures, Mariana Katzarova, special rapporteur on human rights in Russia, said in a new report. In the report, Katzarova said that "civic space has been systematically and purposefully destroyed" and the authorities have "transformed public institutions into instruments of repression and war." (RFE/RL, 09.22.25)
• Demand for new workers in Russia’s defense sector has dropped to its lowest level since the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine, according to a new investigation by Novaya Gazeta Europe. Novaya Gazeta reported on Sept. 22 that expansion is slowing due to economic constraints and that Russia is prioritizing directing funding toward the production of higher demand weapons, like drones and missiles, further restraining production within other defense industrial enterprises. (ISW, 09.22.25, Meduza, 09.22.25)
• WhatsApp remains Russia’s most widely used messaging app despite government restrictions and the Kremlin’s push to promote the homegrown rival Max, the business newspaper Kommersant reported on Sept. 22. The Meta-owned service reached 97 million unique monthly users in August, up slightly from the same month last year, according to data cited by Kommersant. (MT/AFP, 09.22.25)
• Luxury taxi service Wheely vanished from Moscow’s streets this month after a court ordered its blocking for refusing to share passenger data with the security services. Days later, St. Petersburg officials finalized a ban on migrant taxi drivers that will eliminate half the city’s workforce. Once a highly competitive market, Russia’s taxi sector is now sliding into a state-controlled monopoly marked by soaring prices, shrinking services and systematic discrimination against foreign workers. (MT/AFP, 09.22.25)
• Former Kursk region lawmaker Maxim Vasilyev has admitted to bribing the jailed ex-deputy governor in a widening corruption scandal over border defense construction, state media reported on Sunday. (MT/AFP, 09.22.25)
• State prosecutors are seeking to confiscate nearly 100 properties allegedly tied to Russian Supreme Court Judge Viktor Momotov in a major corruption case, state-run media reported on Sept. 23. Momotov, who also chairs Russia’s Council of Judges, was accused of unlawfully running hotels across at least seven Russian regions, including Moscow, while serving in public office. (MT/AFP, 09.23.25)
• A Moscow court on Sept. 25 sentenced Maria Smorzhevskikh-Smirnova, the director of the Narva Museum in eastern Estonia, to 10 years in prison in absentia on charges of spreading “war fakes” and “rehabilitating Nazism,” the exiled news outlet Mediazona reported. (MT/AFP, 09.25.25)
• A court in Siberia’s republic of Altai on Sept. 25 ordered the release of local activist Aruna Arna, a prominent critic of Kremlin-backed municipal reforms, a day after she was arrested on suspicion of inciting terrorism. Law enforcement authorities in Siberia’s republic of Altai said Sept. 24 that they arrested a local activist suspected of publicly inciting terrorism, a move that comes amid a wider crackdown against opponents of controversial municipal reforms. Though officials did not name the person, local activists identified her as Aruna Arna, a prominent figure in protests against a Kremlin-backed governance overhaul and the expansion of Moscow-owned businesses in the republic. (MT/AFP, 09.25.25, MT/AFP, 09.24.25)
• As part of the Kremlin’s campaign to reduce orphanhood, Russia’s children’s rights commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova said she has given “particular attention” to families of men fighting in Ukraine. But while official reports present the children of soldiers as secure and protected, accounts from regional ombudspersons indicate otherwise. These stories reviewed by The Moscow Times reveal families left in poverty, children shuffled between relatives and institutions and widows navigating a bureaucracy that often strips them of support once a husband or father is killed or declared missing in action. (MT/AFP, 09.24.25)
• At least 19 people have died this month after consuming bootleg alcohol in northwestern Russia’s Leningrad region near the border with Estonia, authorities said Sept. 26. National police spokeswoman Irina Volk said two local residents were detained on suspicion of supplying raw alcohol and using it to produce homemade spirits. (MT/AFP, 09.26.25)

Defense and aerospace:

• Rosgardiya, the Russian National Guard, has established tank units, part of a wider expansion of its heavy weaponry, according to its Viktor Zolotov. The creation of tank units is a marked militarization of Rosgvardiya, improving its capacity to deal with military and paramilitary threats to Putin's regime security. It also almost certainly demonstrates the Kremlin's continued trust in Rosgvardiya's loyalty.¹ (UK MOD X Account, 09.22.25)
•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Russian police arrested Urals businessman Alexei Bobrov in Moscow and transferred him to the city of Yekaterinburg for questioning, Russian media reported Sept. 23, citing law enforcement sources. The Prosecutor General’s Office earlier this month filed a lawsuit seeking to seize companies tied to Bobrov and his longtime partner Artyom Bikov. Bobrov and Bikov, both of whom are said to hold Austrian citizenship, were accused of moving at least 12 billion rubles ($143.5 million) abroad through affiliated firms. (MT/AFP, 09.23.25)

• A freight train carrying gasoline derailed and caught fire after colliding with a heavy truck at a railway crossing in Russia’s Smolensk region near the border with Belarus, authorities said Sept. 26. The early morning incident took place when the truck drove onto the tracks in front of the oncoming train. (MT/AFP, 09.26.25)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the country has a deep partnership with Russia, pushing back against U.S. pressure to scale down its engagement with Moscow. “With Russia as a partner, we are strengthening a time-tested partnership,” Modi said at the inauguration of an international trade show, at which Russia is a partner country. (Bloomberg, 09.25.25)
• The president of the Central African Republic has defended his government’s continued hosting of Russian mercenaries, saying they were helping to bring security to a state that has been threatened by armed groups. “I called France and I called the Europeans, but only Rwanda and Russia said, ‘We can help you defend your democracy and your people,’” he said, adding that Paris had offered only limited aerial support. (Financial Times, 09.24.25)
• Putin and Myanmar’s junta chief Min Aung Hlaing held talks Sept. 25 in Moscow about deepening diplomatic, defense, energy and investment ties. (Bloomberg, 09.26.25)
• The former leader of Reform U.K. in Wales has pleaded guilty to bribery charges over money he received in exchange for making statements in the European parliament that would benefit Russia. On Sept. 26, Nathan Gill admitted eight counts of bribery on dates between Dec. 6, 2018, and July 18, 2019. (Financial Times, 09.26.25)

Ukraine:

• On Sept. 23, when Trump and Zelenskyy met on the sidelines of the General Assembly, Trump praised the Ukrainian leader as a “brave man.” “We have great respect for the fight that Ukraine is putting up,” Trump said. “It’s pretty amazing, actually.” (New York Times, 09.23.25)
• The International Monetary Fund has persuaded Ukraine’s government to significantly increase its projections of additional funding the country will need through the end of 2027 in the face of protracted Russia’s invasion, according to people familiar with the matter. Kyiv initially estimated the gap in foreign financing at almost $38 billion, but the discussions with the IMF have lifted the figure to around $65 billion, according to the officials. (Bloomberg, 09.22.25)
• Ukraine’s biggest oil and gas company is pitching several projects that could be among the first under a resource deal with the U.S. to shore up its wartime economy and help secure support from President Donald Trump. (Bloomberg, 09.25.25)
• Zelenskyy said in an interview with Axios that he is prepared not to seek a second term if the war with Russia can be brought to an end. “If [the war ends], I am ready not to [run for reelection], because it’s not my goal, elections. I wanted very much, in a very difficult period of time, to be with my country, help my country. That is what I wanted, always. My goal is to finish the war,” Zelenskyy said. (Meduza, 09.26.25)
• Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies have accused a Kyiv judge of illicit enrichment and completed an investigation into embezzlement at the state rail operator Ukrzaliznytsia. On Monday evening, their investigators alleged that a judge purchased two plots of land and a house in the Kyiv region in 2021 for about $900,000, despite having no legitimate income to support the acquisition. At the same time, NABU and SAP said they had concluded an investigation into suspected embezzlement of more than 15 million hryvnias (about $370,000) at Ukrzaliznytsia. (OCCRP, 09.23.25)
• The National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine has said the Security Service (SSU) is carrying out investigative actions against its former detectives, which may signal growing pressure on anti-corruption bodies. (Pravda.com.ua, 09.25.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Russia has devised a plan to intervene in elections in Moldova and disrupt the government’s efforts to keep the country on the path toward European Union membership, according to documents reviewed by Bloomberg. The multi-pronged strategy was finalized in spring and coordinated directly by the Kremlin. The goal is to undermine the chances of President Maia Sandu’s Party of Action and Solidarity in the Sept. 28 vote and ultimately see her removed from power, the documents citing the internal Russian plans suggest. (Bloomberg, 09.22.25)
  • During mass police raids in Moldova on Sept. 22, authorities arrested 74 people in what they described as a criminal investigation into Russian-backed efforts to incite unrest in the country. Moldovan authorities, including the pro-EU President Maia Sandu, accused Moscow of paying locals to buy votes and train young Moldovans to organize election violence. (MT/AFP, 09.23.25)
  • Zelenskyy called on the world leaders to support Moldova in the face of Russia’s alleged attempts to influence its parliamentary election on Sunday. “Georgia is dependent on Russia, and for many many years Belarus has been moving toward dependence on Russia,” Zelenskyy said in a speech to the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Sept. 24. “Europe cannot afford to lose Moldova too.” (Bloomberg, 09.24.25)
• Li Xi, a Politburo member who serves as China’s anti-corruption chief, met with Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko on Sept. 22 in Minsk. Lukashenko, a staunch ally of Putin as well as Beijing, signaled that he would inform Li about the border closure between Poland and Belarus as he blamed Poland, according to his official website. (Bloomberg, 09.22.25)
• Kazakhstan plans to raise as much as $2 billion in renminbi debt in the next three years to fund growing trade and investment ties with China, the deputy prime minister in charge of the economy said. (Bloomberg, 09.22.25)
• Lithuanian lawmakers approved a new coalition government after months of uproar over the inclusion of a party whose leader is accused of making alleged antisemitic remarks. (Bloomberg, 09.25.25)

IV. Quotable and notable

• No significant developments.

Footnotes

1. The evolution of Rosgvardiya—effectively Putin’s praetorian guard—from a primarily internal police force to one capable of independent military operations is analogous to the evolution of the Third Reich’s SS (1925–34), to SS-Verfügungstruppe (1933–39), and eventually to the Waffen-SS (1940–45).

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by AP Photo/Evan Vucci.