The Russia-Ukraine War Report Card, Sept. 3, 2025

Find past issues in the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card archive. 

Sept. 2 update: In the period of Aug. 5–Sept. 2, Russian forces gained 222 square miles of Ukrainian territory, which marks a 2% decrease from the 226 square miles these forces gained in the period of July 8–Aug. 5, 2025. Comparing shorter periods, such as the past week to the preceding week, shows that in the period of Aug. 26–Sept. 2, 2025, Russia gained 73 square miles of Ukrainian territory (a little less than one Martha’s Vineyard island), which marks a 52% increase from the 48 square miles Russian forces gained in the period of Aug. 19–26, 2025.  Meanwhile, while on a visit to China, Vladimir Putin suggested on Sept. 3 that there might be a “certain light at the end of the tunnel” in peace talks on Ukraine.

Territorial Control (figures as of Sept. 2, 2025)1

 

Additional Maps2

Current Russian Territorial Control Overlaid on New England (Source: “Mapping the Russia-Ukraine War Endgame,” Graham Allison, The National Interest, 08.29.25.)

 

Remainder of Donetsk Equivalent (source: “Mapping the Russia-Ukraine War Endgame,” Graham Allison, The National Interest, 08.29.25.)

 

Report Card*

Change in Russia’s control of Ukrainian territory and change in Ukraine’s control of Russian territory

(Based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.)

  • Since Feb. 24, 2022:
    • Russia: +28,304 square miles. 12% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to half the size of the U.S. state of Iowa).
  • Total area of all Ukrainian territory Russia presently controls, including Crimea and parts of Donbas, Russia had seized prior to the full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022:
    • Russia: +44,929 square miles. 19% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to the U.S. state of Ohio.)3
  • In the period of Aug. 5–Sept. 2, 2025: Russian forces gained 222 square miles of Ukrainian territory; a decrease of 2% from the 226 miles it gained from July 8–Aug. 5, 2025.
  • In past week (Aug. 26–Sept. 2, 2025): Russia gained 73 square miles of Ukrainian territory (slightly more than three Manhattan islands)—a 52% increase over the previous week’s (Aug. 19–26, 2025) gain of 48 square miles.
  • In Russia, Ukraine’s foothold across the Kursk and Belgorod regions remained the same this week: 4 square miles.

Russian net territorial control in Ukraine by month: February 2022–August 2025. (Based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.) 

 

Military casualties (see footnotes for detailed source estimates)

  • Russia: More than 790,000 killed or injured, according to an April 2025 estimate by then-SACEUR Cavoli.4 50,000 missing.5
  • Ukraine: 400,000 killed or injured, according to a January 2025 estimate by Zelenskyy.6 35,000 missing.

Civilian fatalities

  • Russia: 652 killed.7
  • Ukraine:  13,883 killed.

Military vehicles and equipment8

  • Russia: 22,646 lost.
    • Tanks and armored vehicles: 13,182.  
    • Aircraft: 332.9
    • Naval vessels: 22.10
  • Ukraine: 9,696 lost.
    • Tanks and armored vehicles: 4,931.
    • Aircraft: 188.11
    • Naval vessels: 35.12

 Citizens displaced

  • Russia:
    • Internally displaced: 5,000 as of August 2025.
    • 800,000 left Russia for economic or political reasons, 0.6% of Russian population.
  • Ukraine: 9.4 million displaced Ukrainians, 21% of Ukraine’s pre-invasion population of 44 million, including:
    • Internally displaced: 3.7 million as of Spring 2025.
    • International refugees: 5.7 million, including 5.1 million in Europe, as of July 2025.

Economic impact13

  • Russia’s economic growth: 5.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)
    • 0.9% GDP growth forecast for 2025.
    • Budget deficit in 2024: 1.7% of GDP.
    • Russian ruble: 0.01241 U.S. dollars. 5% since the invasion.
    • 3-year bond yield: 13.8%.
  • Ukraine’s economic growth (negative): -22.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)
    • 2% GDP growth forecast for 2025.
    • Budget deficit in 2024: 20.4% of GDP, excluding grants.
    • Ukrainian hryvnia: 0.02417 U.S. dollars. -28% since the invasion.
    • 3-year bond yield: 25%.

Infrastructure

  • Russia:  
    • A journalistic investigation by RFE/RL estimated in March 2025 that Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s energy sector have caused at least 60 billion rubles ($714 million) in damage.
    • An Aug. 19, 2025, article in The Moscow Times estimated that recent Ukrainian strikes disabled at least four major Russian oil refineries, forcing the shutdown of 44.3 million tons of annual capacity—about 13% of Russia’s total (328 million tons/year).
    • Recent Ukrainian drone attacks temporarily shut down up to a sixth of Russia’s refining capacity, The New York Times reported on Aug. 26, 2025.
  • Ukraine:  
    • Ukraine's extensive transmission infrastructure has suffered severe damage in the war, with capacity falling from 56 GW to an estimated 9 GW by the end of 2024.
    • Some 64%, or 36 out of Ukraine’s 25 GW electricity generating capacity destroyed or occupied as of 2024.14
      • For one visualization of vulnerability of Ukraine’s power grid to Russian aggression, see this FT product, updated June 17, 2025.
    • Ukraine had lost 80% of its thermal capacity due to Russian attacks as of September 2024.
    • Ukraine relied for 2/3rds of its electricity generation on three functioning Soviet-era NPPs, which it still controls, as of 2024.

Popular support

  • Russia: 63% support peace negotiations.
  • Ukraine: 69% support negotiated peace.

Other criteria which may be even more important (about which we continue to search for reliable indicators):

  • Ammunition supply
  • Foreign military aid
  • Force generation
  • Military leadership
  • Training
  • Morale
  • Control of strategic locations
  • Information war: with U.S./Europe; with world.

 

Footnotes

  1. Estimates of the percent of each Ukrainian region Russia controls will be updated in the last War Report Card published each month. The next update will be Sept. 24, 2025.
  2. From “Mapping the Russia-Ukraine War Endgame,” Graham Allison, The National Interest, 08.29.25 (with permission of author).
  3. According to Ukraine's DeepState OSINT group's map, as of Sept. 2, 2025, Russian forces occupied a total of 114,701 square kilometers of Ukrainian land (44286 square miles), which constituted 19% of Ukrainian territory.
  4. Here are more estimates of Russian servicemen killed and injured [in chronological order]:
    1. 600,000 killed or injured, according to Trump’s December 2024 estimate.
    2. 1,000,000 killed, according to Trump’s January 2025 estimate.
    3. More than 750,000 killed or injured, according to a March 2025 estimate by DNI/U.S. intelligence community.
    4. More than 700,000, according to a May 2025 estimate by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency.
    5. 950,000 killed or injured, according to CSIS’s June 2025 estimate, including 250,000 killed and 700,000 injured.
    6. More than 1,000,000, including 250,000 killed, according to the U.K. Defense Ministry’s June 2025 estimate.
    7. 100,000 Russian soldiers have died in the war this year, NATO Secretary General Matt Rutte said in July 2025.
    8. 219,000 Russian soldiers killed in the Ukraine war, according to Meduza and Mediazona’s August 2025 estimate.
  5. More than 50,000 inquiries have been submitted by Russians seeking missing soldiers through Ukraine’s "I Want to Find" project, Bohdan Okhrimenko, head of the Coordination Center Secretariat, said, according to Ukrainian media.
  6. Here are more estimates of Ukrainian servicemen killed and injured [in chronological order]:
    1. 400,000 killed or injured, according to Trump’s December 2024 estimate.
    2. 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and 370,000 injured, according to Zelenskyy’s December 2024 estimate.
    3. 700,000 killed, according to Trump’s January 2025 estimate.
    4. 400,000 killed or injured, according to CSIS’s June 2025 estimate, including somewhere between 60,000 and 100,000 killed and 300,000-340,000 injured.
      1. “Millions” killed in the war, according to Trump’s April 2025 estimate.
  7. This estimate was given by Russia’s Investigative Committee in March 2025. A July 2025 estimate by Russia’s Foreign Ministry put the total number of “peaceful residents” who were allegedly killed by “actions of the Ukrainian authorities and their armed formations” from early 2022 to June 2025 at “almost” 7,500.
  8. Oryx, “Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” Oryx (blog), https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html; “The Military Balance 2022,” IISS, https://www.iiss.org/publications/the-military-balance/the-military-balance-2022; Oryx, “List Of Aircraft Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html; Oryx, “List Of Naval Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-naval-losses-during-2022.html. According to a June 2025 study by CSIS, Russia has lost roughly 1,149 armored fighting vehicles, 3,098 infantry fighting vehicles, 300 self-propelled artillery, and 1,865 tanks since January 2024.
  9. Oryx is not updating its estimates of aircraft losses as of June 24, 2025. In May 2025, Ukraine claimed to have shot down two Russian Su-30s by missiles launched from drone boats. On June 1, 2025 Ukraine destroyed an estimated total of 11 to 12 Russian strategic bombers. On June 7, 2025 Ukraine said  that its forces shot down a Russian Su-35 fighter jet over the Kursk region, according to MT. On June 27, 2025, Ukraine claimed to have struck four Su-34 aircraft in Russia’s Volgograd region.
  10. Oryx is not updating losses of warships as of January 1, 2025. According to a May 2025 estimate by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, since the war’s start, Russia has lost at least 10,000 ground combat vehicles, including more than 3,000 tanks, as well as nearly 250 aircraft and helicopters and more than 10 naval vessels.
  11. Oryx is not updating its estimates of aircraft losses as of June 24, 2025. Ukraine was reported to have lost 3 F-16s as of May 2025. On June 28, 2025 Ukraine admitted to losing a pilot and his F-16 jet.
  12. Oryx is not updating losses of warships as of January 1, 2025.
  13. International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and Russian estimates. “Russia and Ukraine 3-Year Bond Yield,” Investing.com, https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/russia-3-year-bond-yield; World Bank Group, “Europe and Central Asia Economic Update,” https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/94bdc078-9c64-4833-992a-fda7b3d1a640/content; World Bank, “Russian Federation MPO,” https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/d5f32ef28464d01f195827b7e020a3e8-0500022021/related/mpo-rus.pdf; Trading Economics, “Russia 3-Year Bond Yield,”  https://tradingeconomics.com/ruge3y:gov ; World Bank, “The World Bank in Ukraine,” https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ukraine/overview#3; https://www.exchange-rates.org/exchange-rate-history/rub-usd-2024-11-01. This count does not include the loss of the Ukrainian reconnaissance warship near the mouth of the Danube river where it was attacked by a Russian naval drone on Aug. 28, 2025.
  14. Combining the occupied, destroyed and damaged power capacities, Ukraine has lost a total of approximately 48% (27 gigawatts) of its pre-war installed capacity of 56.1 GW, according to an alternative estimate in a July 2025 report by CSIS.

* This card was produced by RM staff and Belfer Center Avoiding Great Power War Project’s research assistant Maryana Schnitser.

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