Find past issues in the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card archive. 

Aug. 12, 2025 update: In the period of July 15–Aug. 12 Russian forces gained 241 square miles of Ukrainian territory, which marks a 7% increase over the 226 square miles these forces gained in the period of July 8–Aug. 5, 2025. However, if one were to compare shorter periods, such as the past week to the preceding week, then one would notice that in the period of Aug. 5–12, 2025 Russia gained 76 square miles of Ukrainian territory (a shade over 3 Martha’s Vineyard islands), which marks a 145% increase over the 31 square miles Russian forces gained in the period of July 29–Aug. 5, 2025. Part of this latest increase can be attributed to Russian advances in the Dobropillya-Pokrovsk sectors in the Donetsk region, which are threatening not only Pokrovsk and Dobropillya, but also the supply lines to the key city of Kramatorsk. The gains are being made as Putin seeks to expand leverage ahead of talks with Trump in Alaska even as the White House tempers expectations for the Aug. 15 summit while also planning a second summit with Volodymyr Zelenskyy joining Trump and Putin. Meanwhile Ukrainian bonds rallied: Bonds maturing in 2029 climbed from 62 to 67 cents as optimism grew that Trump-Putin talks could broker a peace deal, according to FT.

Who’s Gaining and Who’s Losing What?

Territorial Control (figures as of Aug. 12, 2025)

This Week’s Critical Russian Advances in Donetsk (Dobropillya-Pokrovsk Sectors): Expanded View

Report Card*

Change in Russia’s control of Ukrainian territory and change in Ukraine’s control of Russian territory

(Based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.)

• Since Feb. 24, 2022:
  • Russia: +28,158 square miles. 12% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to half the size of the U.S. state of Iowa).²
• Total area of all Ukrainian territory Russia presently controls, including Crimea and parts of Donbas, Russia had seized prior to the full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022:
  • Russia: +44,783 square miles. 19% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to the U.S. state of Ohio.)
• In the period of July 15–Aug. 12, 2025: Russian forces gained 241 square miles of Ukrainian territory, which marks a 7% increase over the 226 square miles gained by Russia in the period of July 8–Aug. 5, 2025.³
• In past week (Aug. 5–12, 2025): Russia gained 76 square miles of Ukrainian territory (a shade over 3 Martha’s Vineyard islands)—a 145% increase compared to the rate of the previous week’s (July 29–Aug. 5, 2025) gain of 31 square miles.
• In Russia, Ukraine’s foothold across the Kursk and Belgorod regions remained the same this week as last (July 29–Aug. 5, 2025): 4 square miles.

Russian net territorial control in Ukraine by month: February 2022–July 2025. (Based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.)

Military casualties  

• Russia: More than 790,000 killed or injured, according to an April 2025 estimate by then-SACEUR Cavoli.⁴48,000 missing.⁵
• Ukraine: 400,000 killed or injured, according to a January 2025 estimate by Zelenskyy.⁶ 35,000 missing.

Civilian fatalities

• Russia: 652 killed.⁷
• Ukraine: 13,580 killed.

Military vehicles and equipment⁸

• Russia: 22,486 lost.
  • Tanks and armored vehicles: 13,121.
  • Aircraft: 332.⁹
  • Naval vessels: 22.¹⁰
• Ukraine: 9,542 lost.
  • Tanks and armored vehicles: 4,868.
  • Aircraft: 188.¹¹
  • Naval vessels: 35.¹²

Russian aerial attacks and Ukrainian interceptions
In July:

• Russia launched
  • 6,472 drones
  • 54 ballistic missiles
  • 103 cruise missiles
• Ukraine intercepted
  • 3,726 drones
  • 20 ballistic missiles
  • 81 cruise missiles

Since September 2022

• Russia launched
  • 45,449 drones
  • 583 ballistic missiles
  • 3869 cruise missiles
• Ukraine intercepted
  • 27,979 drones
  • 119 ballistic missiles
  • 2,715 cruise missiles

• Russia:
  • 800,000 left Russia for economic or political reasons, 0.6% of Russian population.
  • 112,000 were displaced in Russia’s Kursk region during Ukraine’s incursion, which was launched in August 2024. Many of them reportedly remained unable to return to their homes as of June 2025.
• Ukraine: 9.4 million displaced Ukrainians, 21% of Ukraine’s pre-invasion population of 44 million, including:
  • Internally displaced: 3.7 million as of Spring 2025.
  • International refugees: 5.7 million, including 5.1 million in Europe, as of July 2025.

Economic impact¹³

• Russia’s economic growth: 5.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)
  • 1.5% GDP growth forecast for 2025.
  • Budget deficit in 2024: 1.7% of GDP.
  • Russian ruble: 0.01258 U.S. dollars. 6% since the invasion.
  • 3-year bond yield: 13.1%.
• Ukraine’s economic growth (negative): -22.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)
  • 2% GDP growth forecast for 2025.
  • Budget deficit in 2024: 20.4% of GDP, excluding grants.
  • Ukrainian hryvnia: 0.02411 U.S. dollars. -27% since the invasion.
  • 3-year bond yield: 24.8%.

Infrastructure

• Russia:
  • A journalistic investigation estimated in March 2024 that Ukrainian strikes had rendered facilities which accounted for 1/6^th of the production of gasoline and diesel fuels in Russia non-operational.
  • A journalistic investigation estimated in March 2025 that Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s energy sector have caused at least 60 billion rubles ($714 million) in damage.
• Ukraine:
  • Ukraine's extensive transmission infrastructure has suffered severe damage in the war, with capacity falling from 56 GW to an estimated 9 GW by the end of 2024.
  • Some 64%, or 36 out of Ukraine’s 25 GW electricity generating capacity destroyed or occupied as of 2024.¹⁴
    • For a recent visualization of vulnerability of Ukraine’s power grid to Russian aggression, see this FT product, updated June 17, 2025.
  • Ukraine had lost 80% of its thermal capacity due to Russian attacks as of September 2024.
  • Ukraine relied for 2/3rds of its electricity generation on three functioning Soviet-era NPPs, which it still controls, as of 2024.

Popular support

• Russia: 63% support peace negotiations.
• Ukraine: 69% support negotiated peace.

Other criteria which may be even more important (about which we continue to search for reliable indicators):

• Ammunition supply
• Foreign military aid
• Force generation
• Military leadership
• Training
• Morale
• Control of strategic locations
• Information war: with U.S./Europe; with world.

Footnotes

1. According to Ukraine's DeepState OSINT group's map, as of Aug. 11, 2025, Russian forces occupied a total 114,443 square kilometers of Ukrainian land (44187 square miles), which constituted 18.9% of Ukrainian territory.
2. In the preceding 30 days, Russian forces made a gain of 550 square kilometers (212 square miles), according to an Aug. 12, 2025 estimate by The Economist.
3. Here are more estimates of Russian servicemen killed and wounded [in chronological order]:
   1. 600,000 killed or injured, according to Trump’s December 2024 estimate.
   2. 1,000,000 killed, according to Trump’s January 2025 estimate.
   3. More than 750,000 killed or injured, according to a March 2025 estimate by DNI/U.S. intelligence community.
   4. More than 700,000, according to a May 2025 estimate by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency.
   5. 950,000 killed or injured, according to CSIS’s June 2025 estimate, including 250,000 killed and 700,000 injured.
   6. More than 1,000,000, including 250,000 killed, according to the U.K. Defense Ministry’s June 2025 estimate.
   7. 100,000 Russian soldiers have died in the war this year, NATO Secretary General Matt Rutte said in July 2025.
4. More than 100,000 Russian families have contacted Ukraine’s “Want to Find” project set to count number of Russian MIAs as of June 2025, according to Ukrainian media.
5. Here are more estimates of Ukrainian servicemen killed and wounded [in chronological order]:
   1. 400,000 killed or injured, according to Trump’s December 2024 estimate.
   2. 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and 370,000 wounded, according to Zelenskyy’s December 2024 estimate.
   3. 700,000 killed, according to Trump’s January 2025 estimate.
   4. 400,000 killed or injured, according to CSIS’s June 2025 estimate, including somewhere between 60,000 and 100,000 killed and 300,000–340,000 wounded.
   5. “Millions” killed in the war, according to Trump’s April 2025 estimate.
6. This estimate was given by Russia’s Investigative Committee in March 2025. A July 2025 estimate by Russia’s Foreign Ministry put the total number of “peaceful residents” who were allegedly killed by “actions of the Ukrainian authorities and their armed formations” from early 2022 to June 2025 at “almost” 7,500.
7. Oryx, “Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” Oryx (blog), https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html; “The Military Balance 2022,” IISS, https://www.iiss.org/publications/the-military-balance/the-military-balance-2022; Oryx, “List Of Aircraft Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html; Oryx, “List Of Naval Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-naval-losses-during-2022.html. According to a June 2025 study by CSIS, Russia has lost roughly 1,149 armored fighting vehicles, 3,098 infantry fighting vehicles, 300 self-propelled artillery, and 1,865 tanks since January 2024.
8. Oryx is not updating its estimates of aircraft losses as of June 24, 2025. In May 2025, Ukraine claimed to have shot down two Russian Su-30s by missiles launched from drone boats. On June 1, 2025 Ukraine destroyed an estimated total of 11 to 12 Russian strategic bombers. On June 7, 2025 Ukraine said  that its forces shot down a Russian Su-35 fighter jet over the Kursk region, according to MT. On June 27, 2025, Ukraine claimed to have struck four Su-34 aircraft in Russia’s Volgograd region.
9. Oryx is not updating losses of warships as of January 1, 2025. According to a May 2025 estimate by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency,since the war’s start, Russia has lost at least 10,000 ground combat vehicles, including more than 3,000 tanks, as well as nearly 250 aircraft and helicopters and more than 10 naval vessels.
10. Oryx is not updating its estimates of aircraft losses as of June 24, 2025. Ukraine was reported to have lost 3 F-16s as of May 2025. On June 28, 2025 Ukraine admitted to losing a pilot and his F-16 jet.
11. Oryx is not updating losses of warships as of January 1, 2025.
12. International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and Russian estimates. “Russia and Ukraine 3-Year Bond Yield,” Investing.com, https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/russia-3-year-bond-yield; World Bank Group, “Europe and Central Asia Economic Update,” https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/94bdc078-9c64-4833-992a-fda7b3d1a640/content; World Bank, “Russian Federation MPO,” https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/d5f32ef28464d01f195827b7e020a3e8-0500022021/related/mpo-rus.pdf; Trading Economics, “Russia 3-Year Bond Yield,”  https://tradingeconomics.com/ruge3y:gov ; World Bank, “The World Bank in Ukraine,” https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ukraine/overview#3; https://www.exchange-rates.org/exchange-rate-history/rub-usd-2024-11-01.
13. Combining the occupied, destroyed and damaged power capacities, Ukraine has lost a total of approximately 48% (27 gigawatts) of its pre-war installed capacity of 56.1 GW, according to an alternative estimate in a July 2025 report by CSIS.

* This card was produced by RM staff and Belfer Center Avoiding Great Power War Project’s researcher Quinn Urich and research assistant Maryana Schnitser.