5 Things to Know

1. Following talks between Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and Vladimir Putin this week U.S. and Russian officials are working toward an agreement on Ukrainian territories for a planned summit between the U.S. and Russian leaders that could occur as early as the next week, according to Bloomberg. The agreement aims essentially to freeze the war, cementing Putin’s land gains,  and pave the way for a ceasefire and technical talks on a definitive peace settlement, “people familiar with the matter” told this news agency. Under the terms of the deal, Russia would halt its offensive in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine along the current battlelines. In exchange Putin is demanding that Ukraine cede entire Donbas to Russia as well as Crimea in what would require Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to order a withdrawal of troops from parts of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions still held by Kyiv, according to the agency. Speaking in the late afternoon of Aug. 8, Trump confirmed that the deal would involve territorial concessions. Trump said discussions were under way to get “some” land back as well as “some swapping of territories to the betterment of both,” according to Financial Times. He said the conflict could be resolved “very soon.” While having lost 99% of the Luhansk Oblast, with only 103 square miles remaining under their control in that province, Ukrainian forces continued to control some 25% of the Donetsk Oblast (2,509 square miles or 6,500 square kilometers), according to ISW’s latest estimates.¹ Forcing Ukrainian armed forces to quickly cede more than 2,600 square miles of territory they still control in Donbas, which comprises the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, without putting up a fight could be a tall order. A voluntary surrender of these territories by Ukrainians would require concessions on other issues by Russia, but, according to the Bloomberg story, it remains unclear if Moscow is prepared to give up any land that it currently occupies.*
2. In the period of July 8–Aug. 5, 2025, Russian forces gained 226 square miles of Ukrainian territory, which is more than the 190 square miles gained by Russia in the period of June 10–July 8, 2025. However, if one were to compare shorter periods, such as the past week to the preceding week, then such a comparison would reveal that Russia’s weekly gains declined. Russia gained 31 square miles of Ukrainian territory (about 1½ Manhattan islands) over the past week (July 29–Aug. 5, 2025)—slowing to just one third the rate of the previous week’s (July 22–29, 2025) gain of 105 square miles, according to the Aug. 6, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card .   
3. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi is warning that Russia is accelerating troop mobilization, aiming to form 10 new divisions by year’s end and adding about 9,000 troops monthly—despite suffering over 33,200 losses in July, Kyiv Independent reported. Syrskyi said Ukraine has no other option but to ramp up its own mobilization, improve training and strengthen drone capabilities to prevent Russia from achieving its objectives. Meanwhile, the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces has assured Putin that the Ukrainian front will crumble in two or three months, one source close to Russian government told Reuters.
4. More than three years into the war, Ukrainians’ support for continuing the fight against Russia until victory is “collapsing,” according to Gallup’s interpretation of its latest poll on the subject. Indeed, the share of those who think Ukraine should continue fighting until it wins plummeted from 73% in 2022 to 24% in 2025, which represents a decline of more than 67%, according to this international pollster. In the meantime, the share of Ukrainians who think Ukraine should seek to negotiate an end to the war as soon as possible went from 22% to 69%, exceeding that of Russians (63%) who would like to see a negotiated end to the fighting.²
5. The Russian Finance Ministry said this week that the country’s budget deficit has reached 4.88 trillion rubles ($61.1 billion) between January and July, or 2.2% of GDP, according to The Moscow Times. That is well above the 3.8 trillion rubles planned for all of 2025, according to this newspaper. The ministry blamed weaker oil and gas revenues—down nearly 19% year-on-year—and “advance financing” of expenses early in the year, the newspaper reported. Indeed, Russia’s combined oil and gas revenue totaled 787.3 billion rubles in July, down by 27%, according to the Bloomberg. Analysts, however, told MT that the real driver of the budget deficit is runaway spending.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• No significant developments.

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• A Financial Times investigation reveals that a delegation of Iranian nuclear scientists, with ties to Iran’s military nuclear program SPND, secretly visited Russian scientific institutes in August 2024 that produce dual-use technology, including high-powered X-ray tubes and radioactive isotopes like tritium relevant to nuclear weapon development. (Financial Times, 08.05.25)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• A Russian service member recently executed a Ukrainian civilian in occupied Donetsk Oblast in clear violation of international law. (ISW, 08.06.25)
  • More than 6,700 Ukrainian civilians have been killed in the first half of this year, according to the United Nations. (The Washington Post, 08.06.25)
• Ukrainian prosecutors Aug. 7 named the former head of a Russian detention center as a suspect in the torture and death of Ukrainian journalist Viktoriia Roshchyna, who died in Russian custody last year. Ukrainian prosecutors said Alexander Shtoda, the then-head of the Taganrog detention center, had been notified that he is a suspect in the case. (MT/AFP, 08.07.25)
• In the Russian-occupied cities of Donetsk and Mariupol, an escalating water crisis has pushed daily life to the brink of survival, forcing officials from the local level all the way up to Russian President Vladimir Putin to seek solutions. Water trickles out of taps for only a few hours every few days, often discolored and undrinkable. (RFE/RL, 08.04.25)
• Russian developers are redeveloping occupied Ukrainian cities like Mariupol for Russian buyers, excluding displaced Ukrainian residents whose homes were seized or declared “ownerless.” (Wall Street Journal, 08.03.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the period of July 8–Aug. 5, 2025, Russian forces gained 226 square miles of Ukrainian territory, which is more than the 190 square miles gained by Russia in the period of June 10–July 8, 2025. However, if one were to compare shorter periods, such as the past week to the preceding week, then such a comparison would reveal that Russia’s weekly gains declined. Russia gained 31 square miles of Ukrainian territory (about 1½ Manhattan islands) over the past week (July 29–Aug. 5, 2025)—slowing to just one third the rate of the previous week’s (July 22–29, 2025) gain of 105 square miles, according to the Aug. 6, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card . (RM, 08.06.25)
• ISW assesses that Russia has yet to seize roughly 6,500 square kilometers of Donetsk Oblast, or about 25% of the region. Russian forces also still have to seize roughly 7,200 square kilometers of Zaporizhzhia Oblast (about 26% of the region) and roughly 7,000 square kilometers in Kherson Oblast (about 26% of the region).  Future Russian operations to seize the entirety of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts will require significant river crossing operations that Russian forces have historically struggled to complete since 2022. (ISW, 08.07.25)
• Russia in 2025 has already conducted over 10 of the largest-ever drone and missile strikes in the war thus far and reportedly seeks to increase the size of its strike packages to contain up to 2,000 drones. (ISW, 08.07.25)
• Russia has likely sustained approximately 1,050,000 casualties (killed and wounded) since launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and 260,000 casualties in the conflict so far in 2025, according to the British defense ministry (UK MOD X Account, 08.05.25)

Saturday, Aug. 2, 2025

• A Russian missile strike on Kamianske, Ukraine, killed expectant mother Diana Koshyk, her unborn son and several others after targeting a building used by Ukrainian soldiers next to a maternity hospital. (Washington Post, 08.02.25)
• On Aug. 1–2, Ukraine targeted major Russian energy and military sites, including the Rosneft Ryazan Oil Refinery, Annanefteproduct oil depot in Voronezh, Novokuybyshevsk Oil Refinery,and a power substation in Rostov. Ukrainian drones also struck Russian defense industry sites and air bases, including Penza’s Elektropribor and Radiozavod enterprises and Primorsko-Akhtarsk Air Base. The Ukrainian drone strikes killed three people and wounded two others overnight in western Russia, regional governors said Aug. 2. (MT/AFP, 08.02.25, ISW, 08.02.25)
• On Aug. 2, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Torske, Horikhove, Zelenyi Pole and Novopil. (RM, 08.07.25)

Sunday, Aug. 3, 2025

• On Aug. 3, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Sukhetske, near Novotoretske and Zelene Pole. (RM, 08.07.25)
• Ukrainian forces continued to hit military-linked infrastructure deep inside Russia. Russian authorities in the Black Sea resort city of Sochi said Ukrainian drones had set a regional oil depot on fire early on Aug. 3, but the fires were later extinguished after more than 120 firefighters battled the flames. (RFE/RL, 08.03.25)
• Russia is rapidly upgrading its fortified aircraft hangars with dome-shaped rooftops and blast doors to withstand Ukrainian drone attacks, according to Western intelligence. The move comes after a series of deadly strikes on Russian bases. (The National Interest, 08.03.25)

Monday, Aug. 4, 2025

• On Aug. 4, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Popiv Yar and advanced near Toretsk, Shcherbynivka, Voskresenka and Poltavka. (RM, 08.07.25)

Tuesday, Aug. 5, 2025

• On Aug. 5, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in the Serebryanske forestry, near Torske, Holubivka, Novokhatske and Oleksandr-Kalynove. (RM, 08.07.25)
• Early morning Russian missile strikes hit Lozova, Kharkiv region, killing two and injuring 10 (including children), disrupting railways, and damaging homes and infrastructure. (RFE/RL, 08.05.25)
• Russia's military General Staff has told Putin that the Ukrainian front will crumble in two or three months, one source close to Russian government said. (Reuters, 08.05.25)
• Ukraine has suffered some of its biggest territorial losses of 2025 in the past three months, including 502 square kilometers in July, according to Black Bird Group, a Finland-based military analysis center. However, Russia’s recent gains remain relatively minor in purely territorial terms, with only 5,000 square kilometers (1,930 square miles) of Ukraine taken since the start of last year. (Reuters, 08.05.25)
• Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi warned that Russia is accelerating troop mobilization, aiming to form 10 new divisions by year’s end and adding about 9,000 troops monthly—despite suffering over 33,200 losses in July. Syrskyi said Ukraine has no choice but to ramp up its own mobilization, improve training and strengthen drone capabilities to prevent Russia from achieving its objectives. He also announced ongoing reforms to enhance Ukraine’s military coordination and effectiveness. (Kyiv Independent, 08.05.25)
• More than 29,000 Ukrainian servicemen who had left their units without permission have returned to duty since Nov. 29, 2024, following a new law and simplified return process. (Korrespondent.net, 08.05.25)

Wednesday, Aug. 6, 2025

• On Aug. 6, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Bilohorivka, Udachne, Novopil, Novomykolaivka, Fedorivka and Hryhorivka. (RM, 08.07.25)
• Russian forces dropped aerial bombs early Aug. 6 morning on the grounds of a resort in a town in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region. According to preliminary reports, two people were killed and at least 12 others were injured, including two children. (Meduza, 08.06.25)
• Russian forces attacked a gas compressor station in Ukraine’s Odesa region that facilitates Azerbaijani gas transit to Europe. (Meduza, 08.06.25)

Thursday, Aug. 7, 2025

• On Aug. 7, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map  that the Russian armed forces advanced in Serebryanske forestry, Zelenyi Hai and near Dachne. (RM, 08.07.25)
• On Aug. 7, Russia launched 112 drones at Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Force destroyed most of the Russian drones, but more than 20 hits were recorded, according to the Ukrainian Air Force. (RBC.ua, 08.07.25)
• The Russian Defense Ministry said it intercepted and destroyed 82 Ukrainian drones, 76 over the Southern Federal District and six over the Central Federal District, Interfax reported. (RFE/RL, 08.07.25)
• An overnight Ukrainian drone strike sparked a fire at an oil refinery in the southern Krasnodar region, local authorities said early Aug. 7. (MT/AFP, 08.07.25)

Friday, Aug. 8, 2025:

• Russia launched deadly missile attacks across Ukraine, killing at least three and wounding over two dozen on Aug. 7-8. The strikes included Bucha, a suburb once a scene of war crimes, and coincided with uncertainty over next diplomatic steps after U.S. President Donald Trump’s ultimatum lapsed. (New York Times, 08.08.25)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• Ukraine’s supporters are establishing a new NATO fund to allow allies to purchase U.S. weapons for Kyiv, implementing Trump’s plan for European nations to finance American arms shipments rather than relying on U.S. donations. The fund is expected to provide $10 billion in initial spending. Germany will send Patriots to Ukraine and receive replacement systems from the U.S. more quickly under a bilateral deal. The shift aims to get Russia to negotiate by strengthening Ukraine’s battlefield position. (Wall Street Journal, 08.02.25)³
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he had a “productive” phone call with Trump. The two leaders discussed commitments by European nations to buy American-made weaponry to transfer to Ukraine, as well as bilateral defense cooperation with the U.S., Zelenskyy said. (Bloomberg, 08.05.25)
• The U.S. State Department approved a $104 million Foreign Military Sale (FMS) to Ukraine. The U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) announced on Aug. 5 that the U.S. State Department approved and notified U.S. Congress of an FMS to Ukraine worth roughly $104 million for equipment, maintenance services, and long-term sustainment support for M777 howitzers. (ISW, 08.06.25)
• In a demonstration of how the West's approach to arming Ukraine against Russia is shifting under Trump, four European countries are buying U.S. military equipment valued at roughly $1 billion for delivery to Kyiv's forces. The Netherlands on Aug. 4 agreed to the first $500 million purchase, and a consortium of Denmark, Sweden and Norway on Aug. 5 agreed to a similar purchase. The European purchases, coordinated by NATO, are expected to be the first of many funded by European governments and Canada following an agreement in principle earlier this summer. (Wall Street Journal, 08.06.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• Bipartisan legislation introduced in the Senate would force the Trump administration to impose penalties on Chinese firms and individuals supporting Russia’s defense industry. The bill, sponsored by Sens. Shaheen (D-NH) and Cornyn (R-TX), seeks to cut Moscow’s vital lifeline and pressure Putin into peace talks. China has supplied up to 70% of Russia’s military resupply needs, according to officials, but denies giving lethal aid. While passage is uncertain, the bill signals growing U.S. willingness to target Beijing for its role in sustaining Russia’s war effort. (Washington Post, 08.05.25)
• The United States is auctioning off the $325 million yacht Amadea, its first sale of a seized Russian luxury ship since the start of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. The U.S. contends that Suleiman Kerimov, an economist and former Russian politician, who was sanctioned by the U.S. in 2018 for alleged money laundering, owns the yacht. (ABC, 07.08.25)
• Sibanye Stillwater Ltd., which owns the U.S.’s only operating palladium mines, has asked Trump’s administration to impose anti-dumping duties on imports of the metal from Russia. (Bloomberg, 08.05.25)
• Only seven new international brands entered the Russian market in the first half of 2025, half the number from the same period in 2023–2024, according to IBC Real Estate. Hopes for the return of departed Western brands have faded as sanctions remain in place despite initial optimism after Trump’s election. (The Moscow Times, 07.29.25)
• Ukrainian Presidential Office head Andriy Yermak reported that Indian-made electronic components have been found in Russian strike drones, including Shahed/Geran models used against Ukrainian targets. Yermak called for blocking Russian access to foreign components. (Mezha, 08.05.25)
• Russian aircraft makers delivered just one of 15 planned commercial jets this year, as Western sanctions and lack of access to foreign parts have crippled production. (Reuters, 08.08.25)
• At least two foreign airlines have offered to operate Airbus aircraft grounded in Russia due to Western sanctions, the business newspaper Kommersant reported on Aug. 5. According to Kommersant, Egypt’s AlMasria Universal Airlines and the Philippines’ South East Asian Airlines (SEAIR) sent a request to the Russian government to use the grounded jets. (MT/AFP, 08.06.25)
• Russian prosecutors labeled the U.K.-based Zimin Foundation “undesirable,” accusing it of funding “hostile” projects and supporting “extremists” after February grants began aiding Russian-language media and academics. (MT/AFP, 08.05.25)
• Russian universities are scrambling to erase evidence of decades-long partnerships with Yale University after Moscow designated the Ivy League institution as an “undesirable organization” in early July. (Meduza, 08.06.25)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Monday, Aug. 4, 2025

• Trump said Aug. 3 that his special envoy Steve Witkoff could visit Russia ahead of the Aug. 8 deadline he set for Moscow to end its war on Ukraine or face new sanctions. When asked what Witkoff’s message would be to Moscow, and if there was anything Russia could do to avoid new sanctions, Trump replied: “Yeah, get a deal where people stop getting killed.” (MT/AFP, 08.04.25)
  • Pro-Kremlin analyst Sergei Markov Aug. 3 wrote that Witkoff's likely visit was the "last chance" to reach an agreement between Moscow and Washington before Trump's deadline on a ceasefire expires Aug. 8. (Washington Post, 08.04.25.)

Tuesday, Aug. 5, 2025

• Czech President Petr Pavel said it is unrealistic for Ukraine to swiftly liberate Russian-occupied regions without high casualties and that it is unfair for the West to pressure Kyiv for immediate advances. Pavel argued for supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty while accepting some territory may remain “temporarily occupied,” and refused to legally recognize any Russian claims. (Intellinews, 08.05.25)
• A July 2025 Levada Center poll found 78% of Russians support their military’s actions in Ukraine (46% “definitely support,” 32% “rather support”), while 16% oppose. Interest in peace talks remains stable: 63% favored peace negotiations with Ukraine in July, compared to 64% in June. (Levada Center, 08.05.25)

Wednesday, Aug. 6, 2025

• Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff met in Moscow with Putin for three hours after a meeting with Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev. (Wall Street Journal, 08.06.25, The Washington Post, 08.06.25)
  • Trump praised Witkoff's meeting with Putin, writing on his social media platform that the session was "highly productive" and that "Great progress was made!" Trump then said there is “a very good chance” he will meet Putin as well as Zelenskyy “very soon.” The U.S. president said the location of a possible summit had not been determined but the encounter had a “good prospect” of happening after “very good talks” between Witkoff and Putin. Trump said it wasn't clear that Putin was prepared to make peace: "I wouldn't call it a breakthrough," but a product of weeks of negotiations. "We're here to get it stopped and get the deaths stopped," he added. (Wall Street Journal, 08.06.25, Financial Times, 08.06.25, Wall Street Journal, 08.06.25, The Washington Post, 08.06.25)
  • Trump also had a phone call with European leaders. The Aug. 6 call included Wiktoff, Zelenskyy, Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain, President Alexander Stubb of Finland, Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany, Mark Rutte NATO's secretary general; Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. (New York Times, 08.06.25, Meduza, 08.07.25)
    • After the call, Zelenskyy said he believes Russia is now “more inclined” to agree to a ceasefire. He made the remarks during his nightly address, stating, “We discussed what was said in Moscow [at the meeting between Putin and Witkoff]. It seems that Russia is now more inclined toward a ceasefire — pressure on them is working. But the main thing is to make sure they don’t deceive us in the details — not us, and not the United States.” (Meduza, 08.07.25, New York Times, 08.06.25)
  • Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said in a statement Aug. 6 that the Russians asked for the meeting. However, Putin’s aide  Yury Ushakov claimed that the U.S. side suggested the meeting (New York Times, 08.06.25, Wall Street Journal, 08.07.25)
    • Ushakov said the discussion focused on the war in Ukraine and on strengthening U.S.-Russia ties. "A very useful and constructive conversation took place," he said. On Ukraine, he said without elaborating, "certain signals were conveyed. Corresponding signals were also received from President Trump." Ushakov confirmed Aug. 7 that preparations were underway for a meeting between Putin and Trump as early as next week, but contradicted Leavitt's statement that the request for a meeting came from Russia. (Washington Post, 08.07.25,⁴ Wall Street Journal, 08.06.25, The Washington Post, 08.06.25, Bloomberg, 08.06.25)
  • Russia didn’t respond when Witkoff during talks with Putin Aug. 6 raised the prospect of a trilateral meeting involving Putin, Trump and Zelenskyy. (Bloomberg, 08.07.25, Wall Street Journal, 08.07.25)
• In an interview on Fox Business, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that as a result of Witkoff's meeting, "I think for the first time, perhaps since this administration began, we have some concrete examples of the kinds of things that Russia would ask for in order to end the war." "Now, they may not be the conditions Ukraine can accept or, frankly, that others would accept. But at least we have something to work off of," he said. "I've always believed - I've always said this … if there's going to be a deal to end this war, it will have to require the president to come in at the end and close on it," Rubio added. (Wall Street Journal, 08.07.25, Wall Street Journal, 08.06.25, The Washington Post, 08.06.25)
• During their Aug. 6 meeting, Witkoff reportedly presented Putin with a “very favorable offer,” according to Polish media. The informal proposal included a Ukraine-Russia truce, de facto recognition of Russian territorial gains with a decades-long postponement of their status, phased lifting of sanctions, and a return to Russian energy imports. The plan did not include NATO non-expansion or an end to Western military support for Ukraine. The proposal comes as momentum builds for potential Trump-Putin or trilateral peace talks. (RBC.ua, 08.07.25)

Thursday, Aug. 7, 2025

• On Aug. 7, a White House official cautioned that the U.S. would not set a meeting unless Putin agreed to meet with Zelenskyy. However, Putin on Aug. 7 told reporters he didn’t object to meeting Zelenskyy under the right conditions, though he said they don’t exist now. The Kremlin wants to focus first on talks between Putin and Trump, Ushakov said. (Bloomberg, 08.07.25, Wall Street Journal, 08.07.25)
• In Kyiv, some officials expressed dismay that Putin, once again, was maneuvering to exclude Ukraine and its European supporters from negotiations. (Washington Post, 08.07.25)
• Putin will hold talks with Trump as early as next week, the Kremlin said Aug. 7. “We have many friends who are ready to help us organize events of this kind. One of them is the president of the United Arab Emirates,” Putin told reporters alongside UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan at the Kremlin Aug. 7. (Financial Times, 08.07.25)
• Zelenskyy Aug. 7 said: “Ukraine is not afraid of meetings and expects the same brave approach from the Russian side.” He added that “two bilateral and one trilateral” meeting had been discussed the previous day. “It is time we ended the war,” Zelenskyy wrote on X, adding that Europe “must be a participant in the relevant processes.” (Financial Times, 08.07.25)
• Russia’s stock market rose 4.5% Aug. 7 after the planned meeting was announced. (Financial Times, 08.07.25)
• More than three years into the war, Ukrainians’ support for continuing to fight until victory is collapsing, according to Gallup. In Gallup’s most recent poll of Ukraine—conducted in early July—69% say they favor a negotiated end to the war as soon as possible, compared with 24% who support continuing to fight until victory. This marks a nearly complete reversal from public opinion in 2022, when 73% favored Ukraine fighting until victory and 22% preferred that Ukraine seek a negotiated end as soon as possible. In addition, seventy % believe the U.S. should play “a significant role” in peace talks, in line with views toward EU countries (75%) and the U.K. (71%). At the same time, 68% of Ukrainians were skeptical in July that fighting would come to a lasting end in the next 12 months. (Gallup, 08.07.25)

Friday, Aug. 8, 2025

• U.S. and Russian officials are working toward an agreement on territories for a planned summit meeting between Trump and Putin as early as next week, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations. Putin is demanding that Ukraine cede its entire eastern Donbas area to Russia as well as Crimea, which his forces illegally annexed in 2014. That would require Zelenskyy to order a withdrawal of troops from parts of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions still held by Kyiv, handing Russia a victory that its army couldn’t achieve militarily since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022. Under the terms of the deal that officials are discussing, Russia would halt its offensive in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine along the current battlelines, the people said. (Bloomberg, 08.08.25)
  • Addressing reporters’ question about the substance of negotiations with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders on the conflict, Donald Trump said, “You’re looking at territory that’s been fought over for three and a half years.” Trump said discussions were under way to get “some” land back as well as “some swapping of territories to the betterment of both” “Now the only question is, when is it going to be settled? And it could be very soon,” he said. (Financial Times, 08.08.25)
• On Aug. 8, Putin called the leaders of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, China,⁵ India and South Africa seeking their backing for diplomatic efforts toward a Ukraine ceasefire amid U.S.-led peace initiatives. All interlocutors reportedly supported a negotiated settlement. Putin also discussed strengthening bilateral ties and upcoming visits. Belarus proposed Minsk as a venue for a potential trilateral summit with Trump and Zelenskyy. (Istories, 08.08.25)
• Trump has reportedly discussed with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni the prospect of holding a meeting with Putin in Rome, possibly at the Vatican, according to Italian government sources cited by Sky News. While TASS dismissed Italy as a likely venue, Italian officials offered "no comment." Holding the summit in Italy would raise legal challenges, as Italy is obligated under the ICC’s Rome Statute to arrest Putin, who faces an international warrant over Ukraine-related war crimes. (Sky News, 08.08.25)

• The Polish prime minister, Donald Tusk, just told reporters that he spoke with the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, this morning and believes that the Russian invasion of Ukraine could soon be “frozen”. (The Guardian, 08.08.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• U.S. and European officials say they’re seeing a decline in suspected Russian state-backed sabotage acts this year, evidence that President Vladimir Putin’s security services may be reining in a hybrid warfare campaign that’s been blamed for attacks across Europe. There were 11 suspected Russia-backed hybrid incidents in Europe between January and May this year, including the attempted sabotage of fiber-optic cables and cell towers in Sweden, a report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank concluded. That compares to a record high of more than 30 in the whole of 2024, according to the IISS’s dataset of attacks on energy, communications, transport, military, water and undersea targets. (Bloomberg, 08.02.25)
• Lithuania called on its NATO allies to immediately help enhance its air defense capabilities, after two Russian military drones crossed into its airspace in less than a month. (Bloomberg, 08.05.25)

• In the first two years of the war, hopes were high in Ukraine for a quick accession to NATO, when clear majorities (64% in 2022 and 69% in 2023) expected Ukraine to be accepted within the next decade, according to Gallup. Hopes for a quick accession to NATO fell to 51% last year and have continued a downward trend, reaching 32% in 2025, half as high as in 2022. Meanwhile, the percentage who believe Ukraine will never be accepted into NATO has jumped to 33%. (Gallup, 08.07.25)

  

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Chinese President Xi Jinping is glad to see the U.S. and Russia talking, he told Vladimir Putin in a phone conversation on Friday. Xi set out China’s position on Ukraine to the Russian leader, describing it as a set of complex issues with no simple solutions, according to Chinese state broadcaster CCTV. Xi thanked Putin for the information shared and spoke in favor of reaching a sustainable settlement to the Ukraine crisis. The two also discussed preparations for Vladimir Putin's upcoming visit to China to take part in both a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and official events marking the 80th anniversary of Victory over militarist Japan and the end of World War II. (Bloomberg, 08.08.25, Kremlin.ru, 08.08.25.)
• The Russian and Chinese navies wrapped up five days of joint anti-submarine and live-fire drills in the Sea of Japan, highlighting their expanding security cooperation and frequency of major exercises in the Pacific. (RFE/RL, 08.05.25)
• On Aug. 5, the 29th meeting of the Russian-Chinese sub commission on nuclear issues took place in Moscow. Officials from Rosatom and China’s Atomic Energy Agency reviewed current joint projects and discussed the long-term agenda for peaceful nuclear energy cooperation. The next meeting is scheduled for 2026 in China. (Rosatom, 08.05.25)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• On Aug. 1 Trump said he deployed two nuclear submarines into tactical positions after online threats from former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev. “I have ordered two Nuclear Submarines to be positioned in the appropriate regions, just in case these foolish and inflammatory statements are more than just that,” he wrote in Truth Social. The U.S. submarine fleet can conduct both cruise and ballistic missile strikes but those vessels cannot launch interceptors—so in the case of Russia's threats, their presence would be primarily to deter or to provide counterstrike options, CSIS’s Mark Cancian said, calling the president's announcement Friday "signaling in its purest form." (Washington Post, 08.01.25)
  • The Pentagon would not comment on the deployment of resources that typically operate in secret, and experts said it was more likely that Trump intended to send a message than propel the world's superpowers toward armed conflict. (Washington Post, 08.01.25)
  • On Capitol Hill, Sen. Chris Coons (D-Delaware), said that he planned to ask the U.S. Navy for more information. "Why would we ever signal plans to relocate nuclear submarines?" he asked. (Washington Post, 08.01.25)
  • Harvard University’s Graham Allison wrote in The National Interest with regard to Trump’s statement on the two submarines: “If critics were willing to be a bit more charitable (and informed), they might recognize that his statement could be an example of deliberate strategic ambiguity. Repositioning subs could refer to moving US nuclear-powered attack subs (SSNs) to positions from which they pose a more direct threat to Russian submarines. Indeed, it could also include moving US nuclear-powered submarines to locations from which they could launch missiles with conventional warheads.” (National Interest, 08.08.25)
• On Aug. 4 Peskov said at a press briefing that Russia “does not wish to become involved” in an exchange with the United States over nuclear threats. His comments came after U.S. President Donald Trump announced he was deploying two nuclear-powered submarines toward Russia in response to social media posts by former President Dmitry Medvedev, who had threatened the use of nuclear weapons. “Russia treats the issue of nuclear nonproliferation with great care, and we believe everyone should be extremely cautious with nuclear rhetoric,” Peskov told reporters. Commenting on Trump’s decision, he added: “American submarines are already on combat duty—that’s a constant process. We don’t believe this is a case of any sort of escalation.” Peskov's remarks, the first official statement from the Kremlin about Trump's move, seemed to distance Russian President Vladimir Putin from Medvedev’s. (Meduza, 08.04.25)
• Russia no longer considers itself bound by a moratorium on the deployment of ground-based intermediate and shorter range missiles, the Foreign Ministry said. Conditions for maintaining the unilateral moratorium on the deployment of such weapons are no longer in place, the ministry said in a statement Monday. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov signaled the move would happen in December. President Vladimir Putin said that month he may deploy his country’s Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile in Belarus in the second half of 2025. (Bloomberg, 08.04.25)
• A tsunami triggered by an undersea earthquake off the coast of Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula on July 30 appears to have damaged the Rybachiy naval base—Russia's main base for nuclear submarines in the Pacific. Satellite imagery showed that one of the base's floating piers had been damaged. The 8.8-magnitude earthquake occurred just 140 kilometers from the base. (RFE/RL, 08.04.25)

Counterterrorism:

• The trial of 19 suspects—several from Tajikistan—in last year's terror attack on the Crocus City Hall entertainment center just outside Moscow began on Aug. 4 amid a backlash on Central Asian immigrants sparked by the assault. The March 2024 attack left more than 140 people dead and more than 550 injured in the worst such attack in Russia in years. The Islamic State-Khorasan (ISIS-K), known to recruit mainly among Central Asians, claimed responsibility for the attack. (RFE/RL, 08.04.25)
• Russian law enforcement authorities said Monday that they shot and killed three men accused of plotting attacks on police officers in the North Caucasus republic of Kabardino-Balkaria late last week. Both the Investigative Committee and Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said the men were members of an “international terrorist organization” but did not provide further details. According to the FSB, the men were allegedly planning an armed attack on law enforcement authorities in Kabardino-Balkaria. (MT/AFP, 08.04.25)

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

Saturday, Aug. 2, 2025

• Indian officials stated that the country will continue buying cheap Russian oil despite threats of penalties from President Trump, reflecting growing frustration with U.S. pressure. Trump has warned India to cut Russian imports or face a 25% tariff and unspecified penalties, but officials insist there’s been no change in policy. Russia now supplies more than a third of India’s oil. Analysts note that replacing Russian oil could raise costs, and say India is adopting a wait-and-see approach, mindful of its past economic losses from U.S. sanctions on other suppliers. (New York Times, 08.02.25)

Monday, Aug. 4, 2025

• Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi struck a defiant tone in the face of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats, urging the nation to buy local goods as his administration signaled it would continue buying Russian oil. The White House is also threatening more action if India continues Russian oil purchases. (Bloomberg, 08.04.25)
• At least four tankers discharged millions of barrels of Russian crude at Indian refineries at the weekend, a sign the closely scrutinized deliveries are continuing as normal, even as the U.S. ramps up pressure on the South Asian country to stop purchases. (Bloomberg, 08.04.25

Tuesday, Aug. 5, 2025

• President Trump announced plans to “substantially” increase tariffs on Indian imports due to India’s continued purchases of Russian oil, escalating tensions with New Delhi. India, now the biggest buyer of Russian crude, called the move “unjustified and unreasonable.” (Financial Times, 08.05.25)
• Top aides for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will travel to Russia on scheduled visits in the coming days, shortly after U.S. President Donald Trump ramped up tariff threats over New Delhi’s close ties with Moscow, according to officials familiar with the matter. National Security Adviser Ajit Doval will visit Russia this week, with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar to follow later this month. (Bloomberg, 08.05.25)
• India criticized the U.S. and EU for continuing trade with Russia while pushing India to halt Russian oil imports, noting India’s purchases began only after the West increased its own. India’s ministry said U.S./EU trade with Russia far exceeds India–Russia trade. (Meduza, 08.05.25)
• Russia’s oil data show its crude output was slightly above the nation’s OPEC+ target in July, according to people familiar with the matter. Crude production rose to 9.13 million barrels a day last month, the people said, asking not to be identified as the information isn’t public. That’s about 27,000 barrels a day above the required level for the month. (Bloomberg, 08.05.25)

Wednesday, Aug. 6, 2025

• U.S. President Donald Trump has issued an executive order hitting India with an additional 25% tariff over its purchases of Russian oil. That will raise the total tariff on Indian imports to the United States to 50%—among the highest rates imposed by the U.S.. The new rate will come into effect in 21 days, so on Aug. 27, according to the executive order. (BBC, 08.06.25)
• India buys about 90% of its crude oil from overseas and has been the biggest market for Russian seaborne crude since 2023, according to ship tracking data compiled by Kpler. India imports about 5 million barrels of oil a day, of which 2 million come from Russia. India purchases of Russian crude have already begun to fall. “Where would India find 2 million barrels a day of crude just like that?,” said Sumit Ritolia, a lead Kpler analyst Kpler data shows Indian refiners’ July volumes of Russian oil dropped more than 500,000 barrels a day from June to a five-month low of 1.58 million barrels a day. (Financial Times, 08.06.25)
• Several hours after Witkoff met Putin, Trump doubled tariffs on India to 50%, moving on his earlier threat to impose penalties on trading partners that have helped sustain the Russian economy and the Kremlin's war machine, especially by continuing to buy Russian oil. (The Washington Post, 08.06.25)

Thursday, Aug. 7, 2025

• Trump said he could punish China with additional tariffs over its purchases of Russian oil, though one of his top advisers played down the likelihood. Trump floated that possibility on Wednesday after doubling tariffs on Indian goods for buying Russian energy. Responding to a reporter’s question on penalizing China for the same reason, he said that “may happen.” “I mean I don’t know. I can’t tell you yet. But I can—we did it with—we did it with India. We’re doing it probably with a couple of others. One of them could be China,” Trump said in the White House. (Bloomberg, 08.07.25)
• A White House official told ABC News, Bloomberg, and the New York Post on Aug. 7 that the United States and Russia have not yet set a location for the meeting, and a White House source told CNN on Aug. 6 that the meeting could occur within the next two weeks (by about Aug. 21). The White House official told Western news outlets that Trump set the condition that Putin must agree to meet bilaterally with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy before Trump would meet with Putin. Trump later clarified, however, that Putin does not have to meet with Zelenskyy before Trump will meet with Putin. (ISW, 08.07.25)’

Friday, Aug. 8, 2025

• The 50% tariffs Trump announced this week were officially designed to drive a wedge between India and Russia, but so far the only rupture they've caused is with the United States. On Friday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to "further deepen" ties with Moscow following a "very good" call with his "friend" Vladimir Putin. Modi plans to visit China later this month for the first time in seven years, Beijing announced Friday, with Chinese state media citing a "warming" of ties. He'll also host Putin later this year. (Axios, 08.08.25)

• China said its imports of Russian oil are justified, pushing back against U.S. threats of new tariffs after Washington slapped secondary levies on India for buying energy from Moscow. “It is legitimate and lawful for China to conduct normal economic, trade and energy cooperation with all countries around the world, including Russia,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry said Friday in a statement to Bloomberg News. (Bloomberg, 08.08.25)
• Prompt supplies of Russia’s flagship Urals crude are being offered to Chinese buyers, a sign of shifts in the global oil market as President Donald Trump takes aim at India over its purchases from Moscow. Urals shipments for October arrival are being touted to buyers at cheaper prices, garnering interest from state and private refiners who are currently negotiating for cargoes. (Bloomberg, 08.08.25)

Climate change:

• Putin signed a decree allowing Russia to increase its greenhouse gas emissions by about 20% by 2035 compared to 2021 levels. Russia, the world’s fourth-largest emitter of carbon dioxide, aims to reach net-zero emissions by 2060. (MT/AFP, 08.06.25)
• The Far Eastern Sakhalin region has become the first in the country to achieve carbon neutrality, Russia’s Economic Development Ministry announced over the weekend. Launched in 2022, Sakhalin’s climate experiment aimed to achieve carbon neutrality by the end of 2025. (MT/AFP, 08.04.25)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s phone calls this year have sometimes lasted several hours because of Putin’s lengthy monologues. Aides said Trump, instead of showing his usual impatience or interrupting, listened closely. During the calls, Trump often said he wanted to revive U.S.–Russian relations on the basis of economic cooperation. Putin, in turn, raised his demands—among them, international recognition of Russia’s control over Crimea and Donbas. (Meduza, 08.08.25)
• The Trump administration pushed to unveil a highly classified document on Russia's interference in the 2016 election after an intense behind-the-scenes struggle over secrecy, which ended in late July when Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard released a minimally redacted version of the report, according to multiple people familiar with the matter. (Washington Post, 08.07.25)
• The U.S. Justice Department has opened a criminal investigation into claims that national security officials participated in a conspiracy in late 2016 and early 2017 to link President Donald Trump to Russia’s election interference and undermine his legitimacy, according to a person familiar with the matter. (Bloomberg, 08.04.25)
• A 22-year-old U.S. soldier named Taylor Adam Lee has been arrested in Texas on charges of attempting to share classified information with Russia about vulnerabilities in the M1A2 Abrams tank. (Meduza, 08.07.25)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin gave President Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff an award to pass along to a senior CIA official whose son was killed in Ukraine while fighting alongside Russian forces, according to sources familiar with the matter. The award was meant to be handed off to Juliane Gallina, whose 21-year-old son, Michael Gloss, was killed in 2024. Gallina is currently serving at the CIA as deputy director for digital innovation. (CBS news, 08.08.25)
• A Wall Street Journal investigation reveals back-channel efforts by journalists, filmmakers, and diplomats to secure the release of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny in a potential prisoner swap for an FSB hitman jailed in Germany. While private initiatives gained traction, hesitant White House diplomacy and slow multinational negotiations stalled progress. By February 2024, Navalny was dead in Russia's Polar Wolf prison. The account raises questions over whether a faster U.S. response might have saved him—or if secret talks accelerated his demise, as debate continues on the risks and limitations of hostage diplomacy. (Wall Street Journal, 08.08.25)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia’s budget deficit has overshot the government’s full-year target, underscoring the mounting financial cost of the war in Ukraine and Moscow’s struggle to rein in spending. The Finance Ministry said Friday the deficit reached 4.88 trillion rubles ($61.1 billion) between January and July, or 2.2% of GDP. That is well above the 3.8 trillion rubles planned for all of 2025 under a revised budget signed by President Vladimir Putin earlier this summer. July alone added another 1.19 trillion rubles to the shortfall. (MT/AFP, 08.08.25)
• Russia’s proceeds from oil in the state budget shrank by a third from a year ago in July following a drop in global crude prices and the appreciation of the nation’s currency. Oil-related taxes declined by almost 33% to 710.4 billion rubles ($8.9 billion) last month, according to Bloomberg calculations based on Finance Ministry data published Tuesday. Combined oil and gas revenue totaled 787.3 billion rubles, down by 27%, the data showed.. (Bloomberg, 08.05.25)
• AI-95 gasoline prices in Russia hit a record 77,000 rubles per ton after Ukrainian drone strikes severely damaged key oil refineries, many now partially or fully offline. Repairs may take months and could disrupt supply further. (Meduza, 08.05.25)
• Russia’s economy could enter recession as early as 2026, even if the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) continues monetary policy easing, the think tank Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF) announced. According to Vedomosti, the CMASF’s composite leading indicator (CLI) cited by Vedomosti reached 0.1 in May, up from 0.07 in April, which signals a possible shift into recession. (BNE Intelligence, 08.07.25)
• Russia’s central bank is seeking to quell concerns about rising bad loans and weakening profits in some major banks as high interest rates stress corporate and household borrowers. Governor Elvira Nabiullina maintains there is “no need” for large bank recapitalization, insisting most institutions are still profitable, though she concedes some banks lack sufficient capital buffers. (New York Times, 08.04.25)
• After two years of strong profits, some Russian banks now face mounting scrutiny over their exposure to bad loans, especially in vulnerable sectors like construction and real estate. Central Bank governor Elvira Nabiullina insists recapitalization isn’t needed for major banks and that the overall system remains stable, despite uneven capital distribution. Several systemically important lenders, including Credit Bank of Moscow, have seen profits drop 20% or more as high interest rates increase pressure on borrowers. (Financial Times, 08.05.25)
• Russian mobile operators are blocking all mass text messages, including banking notifications and two-factor codes, for users opting out of spam. Only official government messages are exempt since an Aug. 1, 2025 law required strict opt-out enforcement. (Meduza, 08.05.25)
• Russian Railways began furloughs for administrative staff, citing a drop in freight (now down 4.1%, a 15-year low) after full-scale invasion. To avoid layoffs, staff in some branches take two unpaid days off monthly. (MT/AFP, 08.04.25)
• A Russian academic study found that 23% of Russians who relocated abroad after 2022 continued working remotely for Russian companies. The survey, covering 2,484 respondents, showed most relocators working in finance, law, transport, or construction, with women, those over 25, and former Moscow residents predominating. Only 10–15% of post-2022 emigrants have returned to Russia, according to various estimates; more than 650,000 citizens are thought to have left since the war began. (Istories, 08.07.25)
• Nearly 130 Russian small towns, home to 3.4 million, are at risk of disappearing due to population loss and collapsing local economies, especially in isolated industrial areas, a government study warns. (MT/AFP, 08.05.25)
• Since Russia designated the Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) an “extremist organization,” investigators have opened at least 76 criminal cases over donations to the group, according to a new investigation by Mediazona. (Meduza, 08.04.25)
• A Russian court fined a woman 10,000 rubles (about $125) for using a derogatory term for Ukrainians on social media—marking a rare case of prosecution for anti-Ukrainian hate speech in Russia. (Meduza, 08.07.25)

Defense and aerospace:

•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• The southern Kamchatka Peninsula shifted nearly two meters (about 6.6 feet) southeast after a massive earthquake on July 30, Russian scientists reported. The 8.8-magnitude earthquake—among the 10 strongest in recorded history and the largest worldwide since 2011—struck off Russia’s far eastern coast and generated tsunami warnings across the Pacific. (Meduza, 08.05.25)
• A volcano erupted for the first time in 450 years in Russia's eastern Kamchatka region, the nation's emergency authority said Sunday, days after one of the strongest earthquakes on record hit the region. Pictures released by Russian state media show a towering plume of ash spewing from the Krasheninnikov volcano, which last erupted in 1550, according to the Smithsonian Institution's Global Volcanism Program. (MT/AFP, 08.03.25)
• A Moscow court on Wednesday ordered a prominent economics professor and former Kremlin adviser to be held in pre-trial detention for two months following his earlier arrest on charges of treason. Vadim Saltykovsky, 60, was arrested by police last week, joining a growing list of academics, scientists and former officials charged with treason or espionage since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. (MT/AFP, 08.06.25)
• A former Russian Navy radio engineering chief was sentenced to nine years in prison for accepting bribes worth more than 8 million rubles (about $100,000) from defense contractors. Captain 1st Rank Oleg Lopatiev also received a 16.5 million ruble fine (about $168,000) and a three-year ban from government service, Russian military officials announced on Tuesday. (Meduza, 08.05.25)

• Russia’s Interior Ministry has issued an arrest warrant for former Chelyabinsk region Governor Boris Dubrovsky, the RBC news website reported Thursday, though the charges against him have not been disclosed. (MT/AFP, 08.07.25)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• President Vladimir Putin is expected to visit India by the end of this year, Russian media reported on Thursday, though the exact timeline for the trip remains unclear. (MT/AFP, 08.07.25)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Malaysia’s King Sultan Ibrahim Iskandar at the Kremlin on Wednesday, as the two nations look to shore up ties amid shifting global alliances. (Bloomberg, 08.06.25)
• Adam Kadyrov, the 17-year-old son of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, has been appointed to oversee the collection of humanitarian aid from the republic for residents of the Gaza Strip. (Meduza, 08.05.25)

Ukraine:

• The EU Council approved a new €3.056 billion tranche for Ukraine under the Ukraine Facility program, signaling continued support but at a reduced amount from the €4.5 billion initially expected. The cut follows Ukraine’s incomplete implementation of required reforms—completing 13 out of 16. Further funding may be possible if all reforms are completed later this year. Delays were partly linked to controversy over anti-corruption legislation. (RBC.ua, 08.08.25)
• The heads of Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAP), Semen Krivonos and Oleksandr Klimenko, warned of mounting pressure—including possible efforts to replace them—in response to resistance to recent legal changes affecting agency independence. Both officials say a coordinated campaign is underway to destabilize anti-corruption leadership, even after a new law restored their institutional autonomy following public protests. Surveillance and media attacks have intensified, but agency heads say they are prepared for further challenges. (Pravda, 08.08.25)
• Eighteen officials in Ukraine’s Sumy region have been declared suspects in corruption and abuse cases, causing over 19.4 million UAH in state damages and 15.7 million UAH in unpaid taxes, according to the Prosecutor General's Office. Suspects include deputies, municipal leaders, and entrepreneurs, with cases involving inflated project costs, unauthorized contracts, and embezzlement during reconstruction, infrastructure, and procurement projects. (Korrespondent.net, 08.08.25)
• Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies said four people had been detained in a probe into “large-scale” corruption in the procurement of drones and jamming systems. A group including a lawmaker, two local officials and the head of a National Guard unit organized schemes to misappropriate local authorities’ budget funds in 2024-2025, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office said Saturday in statements posted on Facebook. (Bloomberg, 08.02.25)
• The Ukrainian authorities have arrested a number of officials on suspicion of corruption in relation to what they called a “large scale” bribery scheme involving military procurement. “The essence of the scheme was to conclude state contracts with supplier companies at deliberately inflated prices—up to 30% of the contract amount was returned to the participants in the crime,” the statement added. (New York Times, 08.03.25)
• Ukraine plans to get its European reform program back on track after missed deadlines prompted the European Union to cut financial aid disbursements, said Economy Minister Oleksii Sobolev. The war-torn country wants to get €12.5 billion ($14.5 billion) from the European Union under the Ukraine facility, the financial support mechanism that aims to help keep the economy afloat amid the full-scale Russian invasion well into its fourth year. “We plan to fulfill everything” in order to get the funds in full, Sobolev told journalists on Saturday during an online press conference. (Bloomberg, 08.02.25)
• In the months after the invasion, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s approval rating climbed to 84%, giving him one of the highest approval ratings of any world leader at the time. It stayed high in 2023 (81%), before falling significantly to 60% last year, in line with his initial rating upon coming to office in 2019, according to Gallup. In 2025, Zelenskyy’s approval rating has stabilized at 67%. The 21-percentage-point gap in July between Zelenskyy’s approval rating (67%) and Ukraine’s leadership in general (46%) is among the largest seen globally on these metrics in the past few years. (Gallup, 08.07.25)
• Many areas of domestic political public opinion have changed since the invasion, from leadership approval to confidence in institutions. Views toward corruption, however, have remained much more stable in Ukraine. In 2025, 85% believe corruption is widespread throughout Ukraine’s government, in line with the average from 2007 to 2024 (84%). In 2024 it was 87% and in 2022 it was 74%, according to Gallup. In the past decade, from 2014 to 2024, Ukraine frequently appeared in the list of top 10 countries globally for perceived government corruption. (Gallup, 08.07.25)
• Some 38% of Ukrainians approve the job performance of the leadership of the United States as of July 2025, while 32% disapprove, according to Gallup. (Gallup, 08.07.25)

• On Aug. 7, the Appeals Chamber of the High Anti-Corruption Court of Ukraine upheld the preventive measure applied to former Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Chernyshov. This was reported by the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office on Thursday. On June 27, the suspect was given a preventive measure in the form of bail of 120 million UAH with the imposition of corresponding procedural obligations. (Korrespondent.net, 08.07.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• President Trump hosted the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia at the White House on Friday for the signing of a joint resolution that he portrayed as ending decades of bloody conflict between the countries. In the White House The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan expressed their gratitude to Trump for his efforts to broker an end to the long-standing conflict. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan shook hands before signing their joint peace declaration.US President Donald Trump signed a third copy as a witness to the agreement. Armenia and Azerbaijan were also to  sign bilateral agreements with the US to deepen their co-operation in energy, trade and technology, including artificial intelligence. The deals will accompany an agreement that will result in a contested regional transit corridor between the two countries being rebranded as the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity”. (Financial Times, 08.08.25, New York Times, 08.08.25)
• Russian engineers have begun work on Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant as Moscow pushes to maintain its influence in Central Asia, where China and Europe are vying for a foothold in the resource-rich region. Russia’s Rosatom said the reactor will have a 60-year lifespan, with the option to extend it by another 20 years. France and South Korea had also bid for the contract, but Kazakhstan said it selected Russia and China, which will build two additional plants with details to be announced later this year. (MT/AFP, 08.08.25
• Authorities in Estonia have installed “massive metal gates” on the Friendship Bridge connecting the city of Narva to Russia’s Ivangorod, blocking the vehicle lane at the border crossing, Estonian public broadcaster ERR reported on Sunday. They also reportedly plan to install retractable metal barriers, which would be able to completely block vehicle access to and from the border checkpoint. The pedestrian section of the bridge remains open for now, but gates are set to be installed there as well. (Meduza, 08.04.25)
• A Moldovan court sentenced the head of the autonomous region of Gagauzia to seven years in prison over illegal party funding tied to a fugitive oligarch. The ruling against Evghenia Gutul comes just weeks before pivotal parliamentary elections in the eastern European nation. Gutul was detained in the courtroom in the capital of Chisinau on Tuesday after she was given the initial ruling, which concerned her role in the leadership of the now banned pro-Russian Sor Party. She denies any wrongdoing and may appeal the verdict. (Bloomberg, 08.05.25)
• The Kremlin accused Moldova of political repression after pro-Russian Gagauzia governor Evghenia Gutul was sentenced to seven years for allegedly channeling Russian funds to a banned party, calling the verdict anti-democratic. (MT/AFP, 08.05.25)

IV. Quotable and notable

• No significant developments.

Footnotes

1. In addition, Ukraine continues to control 27% (2,967 square miles) of the Kherson region and 27% (2,833 square miles) of the Zaporizhzhia region, according to ISW’s estimate shared with Russia Matters in late July.
2. A July 2025 Levada Center poll found 78% of Russians support their military’s actions in Ukraine (46% “definitely support,” 32% “rather support”), while 16% oppose. Interest in peace talks remains stable: 63% favored peace negotiations with Ukraine in July, compared to 64% in June.
3. NATO and Ukraine have established a shopping list of Kyiv's requirements for lethal and nonlethal equipment. NATO is dividing the list into packages valued at roughly $500 million apiece, which NATO, Ukraine and NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, U.S. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, will ensure meet Kyiv's needs. (Wall Street Journal, 08.06.25)
4. Initially Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said Aug. 7 that Moscow had not agreed to a three-way meeting. “That option was simply mentioned by the American representative during the course of conversation at the Kremlin,” Ushakov said. He said that Moscow was “completely without comment” on the idea of a three-way summit and that it had not been discussed “concretely” with Witkoff. Hours later, Putin said that he was not opposed to meeting Zelenskyy — a prospect Ukraine’s leader has repeatedly requested — but reiterated that “certain conditions” must be met before such a meeting can take place. “We are unfortunately, at the moment, far away from those conditions,” Putin said. (New York Times, 08.07.25)
5. Putin updated Xi on recent Russia-U.S. communications and affirmed close Russia-China ties. Xi expressed support for Moscow-Washington dialogue and reiterated China’s advocacy for negotiations to resolve the Ukraine conflict, saying complex issues require political solutions. Both leaders reaffirmed their commitment to their strategic partnership despite broader global tensions. (SCMP, 08.09.25)

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by Gavriil Grigorov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP.