Find past issues in the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card archive. 

Aug. 5–6 update: In the period of July 8–Aug. 5, 2025, Russian forces gained 226 square miles of Ukrainian territory, which is more than the 190 square miles gained by Russia in the period of June 10–July 8, 2025. However, if one were to compare shorter periods, such as the past week to the preceding week, then such a comparison would reveal that Russia’s weekly gains declined. Russia gained 31 square miles of Ukrainian territory (about 1½ Manhattan islands) over the past week (July 29–Aug. 5, 2025)—slowing to just one third the rate of the previous week’s (July 22–29, 2025) gain of 105 square miles. Russia’s strategy for its summer offensive—aimed, among other things, at forcing Ukraine to abandon its defensive positions in its eastern oblasts by encircling its positions, appears to be working: Ukraine’s undermanned units are leaving Chasiv Yar and are now forced to consider a withdrawal from Pokrovsk.¹ Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s 11th attempt to have his envoy, Steve Witkoff, negotiate with Vladimir Putin a cessation of Russian-Ukrainian hostilities—just two days before Trump’s Aug. 8 deadline for Russia to agree to “a deal” or face new sanctions—yielded no public deal, but Trump did describe it as “great progress.”²

See below for an interactive map comparing Russian advances near Pokrovsk on July 8, 2025, and Aug. 5, 2025. 

Who’s Gaining and Who’s Losing What?

Territorial Control (figures as of Aug. 5, 2025)

Report Card*

Change in Russia’s control of Ukrainian territory and change in Ukraine’s control of Russian territory

(Based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.)

• Since Feb. 24, 2022:
  • Russia: +28,082 square miles. 12% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to half the size of the U.S. state of Iowa).³
• Total area of all Ukrainian territory Russia presently controls, including Crimea and parts of Donbas Russia had seized prior to the full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022:
  • Russia: +44,707 square miles. 19% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to the U.S. state of Ohio.)
• In the period of July 8–Aug. 5, 2025: Russian forces gained 226 square miles of Ukrainian territory, which is more than the 190 square miles gained by Russia in the period of June 10–July 8, 2025.⁴
• In past week (July 29–Aug. 5, 2025): Russia gained 31 square miles of Ukrainian territory (about 1½ Martha’s Vineyards)—just under a third the rate of the previous week’s (July 22–29, 2025) gain of 105 square miles.
• In Russia, Ukraine’s six-week foothold of 5 square miles across the Kursk and Belgorod regions dropped in the last week (July 29–Aug. 5, 2025) to 4 square miles.

Russian net territorial control in Ukraine by month: February 2022–July 2025. (Based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.) 

Military casualties  

• Russia: More than 790,000 killed or injured, according to an April 2025 estimate by then-SACEUR Cavoli.⁵ 48,000 missing.⁶
• Ukraine: 400,000 killed or injured, according to a January 2025 estimate by Zelenskyy.⁷ 35,000 missing.

Civilian fatalities

• Russia: 652 killed.⁸
• Ukraine: 13,580 killed.

Military vehicles and equipment⁹

• Russia: 22,458 lost.
  • Tanks and armored vehicles: 13,109.  
  • Aircraft: 332.¹⁰
  • Naval vessels: 22.¹¹
• Ukraine: 9,503 lost.
  • Tanks and armored vehicles: 4,851.
  • Aircraft: 188.¹²
  • Naval vessels: 35.¹³

Citizens displaced

• Russia:
  • 800,000 left Russia for economic or political reasons, 0.6% of Russian population.
  • 112,000 were displaced in Russia’s Kursk region during Ukraine’s incursion, which was launched in August 2024. Many of them reportedly remained unable to return to their homes as of June 2025.
• Ukraine: 9.4 million displaced Ukrainians, 21% of Ukraine’s pre-invasion population of 44 million, including:

Internally displaced: 3.7 million as of Spring 2025.

• International refugees: 5.7 million, including 5.1 million in Europe, as of July 2025.

Economic impact¹⁴

• Russia’s economic growth: 5.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)
  • 1.5% GDP growth forecast for 2025.
  • Budget deficit in 2024: 1.7%  of GDP.
  • Russian ruble: 0.01250 U.S. dollars. 5% since the invasion.
  • 3-year bond yield: 13.6%.
• Ukraine’s economic growth (negative): -22.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)
  • 2% GDP growth forecast for 2025.
  • Budget deficit in 2024: 20.4% of GDP, excluding grants.
  • Ukrainian hryvnia: 0.02398 U.S. dollars. -27% since the invasion.
  • 3-year bond yield: 25.6%.

Infrastructure

• Russia:  
  • A journalistic investigation estimated in March 2024 that Ukrainian strikes had rendered facilities which accounted for 1/6^th of the production of gasoline and diesel fuels in Russia non-operational.
  • A journalistic investigation estimated in March 2025 that Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s energy sector have caused at least 60 billion rubles ($714 million) in damage.
• Ukraine:  
  • Ukraine's extensive transmission infrastructure has suffered severe damage in the war, with capacity falling from 56 GW to an estimated 9 GW by the end of 2024.
  • Some 64%, or 36 out of Ukraine’s 25 GW electricity generating capacity destroyed or occupied as of 2024.¹⁵
    • For a recent visualization of vulnerability of Ukraine’s power grid to Russian aggression, see this FT product, updated June 17, 2025.
  • Ukraine had lost 80% of its thermal capacity due to Russian attacks as of September 2024.
  • Ukraine relied for 2/3rds of its electricity generation on three functioning Soviet-era NPPs, which it still controls, as of 2024.

Popular support

• Russia: 63% support peace negotiations.
• Ukraine: 51% support peace negotiations (56% of Ukrainians would agree to a “compromise” to end the war).

Other criteria which may be even more important (about which we continue to search for reliable indicators):

• Ammunition supply
• Foreign military aid
• Force generation
• Military leadership
• Training
• Morale
• Control of strategic locations
• Information war: with U.S./Europe; with world.

Footnotes

1. RM has resumed publishing the map of the frontline in the Pokrovsk area because Russia has recently intensified its offensive on this town in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, control over which is important for both sides. It is important because Pokrovsk is a road and rail hub and because it lies on a key highway which has been used by the Ukrainian military to supply other embattled eastern outposts, such as Kostyantynivka, according to Reuters.
2. Trump wrote on Truth Social Aug. 6 that Witkoff had made “great progress” during his three-hour meeting with Putin earlier that day on ending the hostilities. "Everyone agrees this War must come to a close, and we will work towards that in the days and weeks to come," he wrote. Trump also spoke with Volodymyr Zelenskyy after Wiktoff’s talks in Moscow to discuss the talks with the Ukrainian leader, commenting that "it seems that Russia is now more inclined to a ceasefire,” according to The Independent. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he was hopeful of making announcements later on Aug. 6 on whether potential sanctions against Russia would still proceed on Aug. 8. According to The Washington Post, however, Trump announced that he will impose a 50% tax on imports from India, doubling tariffs against this country in response to India’s purchases of Russian oil. This move came after Witkoff’s visit to Moscow, according WaPo.
3. According to Ukraine's DeepState OSINT group's map, as of Aug. 5, 2025, Russian forces occupied a total 114,316 square kilometers of Ukrainian land (44,138 square miles), which constituted 18.9% of Ukrainian territory.
4. In the preceding 30 days, Russian forces made a gain of 459 square kilometers (177 square miles), according to an Aug. 5, 2025 estimate by The Economist.
5. Here are more estimates of Russian servicemen killed and wounded [in chronological order]:
   1. 600,000 killed or injured, according to Trump’s December 2024 estimate.
   2. 1,000,000 killed, according to Trump’s January 2025 estimate.
   3. More than 750,000 killed or injured, according to a March 2025 estimate by DNI/U.S. intelligence community.
   4. More than 700,000, according to a May 2025 estimate by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency.
   5. 950,000 killed or injured, according to CSIS’s June 2025 estimate, including 250,000 killed and 700,000 injured.
   6. More than 1,000,000, including 250,000 killed, according to the U.K. Defense Ministry’s June 2025 estimate.
   7. 100,000 Russian soldiers have died in the war this year, NATO Secretary General Matt Rutte said in July 2025.
6. More than 100,000 Russian families have contacted Ukraine’s “Want to Find” project set to count number of Russian MIAs as of June 2025, according to Ukrainian media.
7. Here are more estimates of Ukrainian servicemen killed and wounded [in chronological order]:
   1. 400,000 killed or injured, according to Trump’s December 2024 estimate.
   2. 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and 370,000 wounded, according to Zelenskyy’s December 2024 estimate.
   3. 700,000 killed, according to Trump’s January 2025 estimate.
   4. 400,000 killed or injured, according to CSIS’s June 2025 estimate, including somewhere between 60,000 and 100,000 killed and 300,000-340,000 wounded.
      1. “Millions” killed in the war, according to Trump’s April 2025 estimate.
8. This estimate was given by Russia’s Investigative Committee in March 2025. A July 2025 estimate by Russia’s Foreign Ministry put the total number of “peaceful residents” who were allegedly killed by “actions of the Ukrainian authorities and their armed formations” from early 2022 to June 2025 at “almost” 7,500.
9. Oryx, “Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” Oryx (blog), https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html; “The Military Balance 2022,” IISS, https://www.iiss.org/publications/the-military-balance/the-military-balance-2022; Oryx, “List Of Aircraft Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html; Oryx, “List Of Naval Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-naval-losses-during-2022.html. According to a June 2025 study by CSIS, Russia has lost roughly 1,149 armored fighting vehicles, 3,098 infantry fighting vehicles, 300 self-propelled artillery, and 1,865 tanks since January 2024.
10. Oryx is not updating its estimates of aircraft losses as of June 24, 2025. In May 2025, Ukraine claimed to have shot down two Russian Su-30s by missiles launched from drone boats. On June 1, 2025 Ukraine destroyed an estimated total of 11 to 12 Russian strategic bombers. On June 7, 2025 Ukraine said  that its forces shot down a Russian Su-35 fighter jet over the Kursk region, according to MT. On June 27, 2025, Ukraine claimed to have struck four Su-34 aircraft in Russia’s Volgograd region.
11. Oryx is not updating losses of warships as of January 1, 2025. According to a May 2025 estimate by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, since the war’s start, Russia has lost at least 10,000 ground combat vehicles, including more than 3,000 tanks, as well as nearly 250 aircraft and helicopters and more than 10 naval vessels.
12. Oryx is not updating its estimates of aircraft losses as of June 24, 2025. Ukraine was reported to have lost 3 F-16s as of May 2025. On June 28, 2025 Ukraine admitted to losing a pilot and his F-16 jet.
13. Oryx is not updating losses of warships as of January 1, 2025.
14. International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and Russian estimates. “Russia and Ukraine 3-Year Bond Yield,” Investing.com, https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/russia-3-year-bond-yield; World Bank Group, “Europe and Central Asia Economic Update,” https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/94bdc078-9c64-4833-992a-fda7b3d1a640/content; World Bank, “Russian Federation MPO,” https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/d5f32ef28464d01f195827b7e020a3e8-0500022021/related/mpo-rus.pdf; Trading Economics, “Russia 3-Year Bond Yield,”  https://tradingeconomics.com/ruge3y:gov ; World Bank, “The World Bank in Ukraine,” https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ukraine/overview#3; https://www.exchange-rates.org/exchange-rate-history/rub-usd-2024-11-01.
15. Combining the occupied, destroyed and damaged power capacities, Ukraine has lost a total of approximately 48% (27 gigawatts) of its pre-war installed capacity of 56.1 GW, according to an alternative estimate in a July 2025 report by CSIS.

* This card was produced by RM staff and Belfer Center Avoiding Great Power War Project’s research assistant Maryana Schnitser.