3 Things to Know

1. Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s July 22 decision to push through a bill subordinating Ukraine’s two independent anti-corruption agencies to the country’s prosecutor general, whom he appoints, was met with widespread disapproval in the West and a massive public protest at home, as reported by Financial Times, among others. The uproar¹ prompted Zelenskyy to backtrack and promise that a new law would be passed to restore the independence of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and Specialized Anti‑Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO) with the Ukrainian parliament scheduling a vote on the bill for July 31. Despite the backtracking, Zelenskyy’s blunder has still been widely seen as a serious setback for Ukraine’s aspiration to join the EU, according to Financial Times. Since the Euromaidan revolution of 2013–2014, Ukraine’s accession to the EU and NATO has been a bedrock political objective for a significant majority of Ukrainians. But accession to the EU demands real progress on fighting a deep-seated culture of corruption in Ukraine—a promise Zelenskyy successfully campaigned on in his run for president in 2019. Under his leadership, Ukraine has made some progress in tackling corruption—Ukraine’s score in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index rose from 30/100 when Zelenskyy took office in 2019 (where 100 means no corruption) to 36/100 in 2023 before declining to 35/100 in 2024.² Ukraine was 105th in the list of 180 countries ranked in TI’s Corruption Perceptions Index-2024 (with the first being the least corrupt³). The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 resulted in a wash of new money flooding into Ukraine, as well as in the expansion of the executive branch’s powers, in what probably contributed to its backsliding in TI’s 2024 index. It should also be noted that Zelenskyy’s move to curb the independence of NABU and SAPO followed reports that one of these agencies is investigating political allies and close associates of Zelenskyy, according to the New York Times.⁴ Crucially, Zelenskyy’s move has been seen as part of a broader threat of democratic backsliding.*
2. While Zelenskyy insists that on the battlefield Ukrainian forces have succeeded in slowing Russian momentum, DeepState, a Ukrainian group with ties to Ukraine’s defense ministry that maps the war, said that Russian forces are advancing on the eastern front at the fastest pace in a year, Financial Times reports.⁵ Ukraine’s analytical group Frontelligence Insight said the situation for Ukrainian forces around the strategic city of Pokrovsk was “critical,” while Zelenskyy described the combat situation in that area as “most difficult.”⁶ In fact, Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are already reported to have recently entered southern Pokrovsk, while other Russian units are closing in on the nearby city of Kostyantynivka, according to Financial Times and the Institute for the Study of War. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s highly-respected former commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi believes that the full-scale war with Russia could last until 2034 or longer if Ukraine does not strengthen its defenses, according to RBC.ua. One defense area where Ukraine is facing a serious problem is the recruitment of new soldiers, according to Financial Times.
3. Officials from Russia and Ukraine held a brief third round of formal negotiations in Istanbul, concluding with an agreement for their ninth prisoner exchange—each side released 250 prisoners of war. However, the July 23 talks—the official part of which lasted less than an hour—yielded little progress toward a peace deal, according to Bloomberg.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Rosatom subsidiary TVEL has produced the first batch of tenth-generation centrifuges, to be installed at a Rosatom enrichment facility. This marks a new phase in Rosatom’s modernization program, which introduced 9+-generation centrifuges. (Fissile Materials, 07.21.25)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin held a surprise meeting with Ali Larijani, top adviser to Iran's supreme leader on nuclear issues, to discuss Tehran's nuclear program in the Kremlin on July 20. Larijani "conveyed assessments of the escalating situation in the Middle East and around the Iranian nuclear program," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said of the unannounced meeting. Putin had expressed Russia's "well-known positions on how to stabilize the situation in the region and on the political settlement of the Iranian nuclear program," he added. (MT/AFP, 07.20.25)
• Iran said it has no plans to resume nuclear talks with the U.S. even as it has prepared to hold discussions on its atomic program with European, Russian and Chinese officials this week. European diplomats met with Iran’s deputy foreign minister in Istanbul to restart negotiations on limiting Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. Britain, France and Germany urged Iran to meet the U.S. and restore international trust, warning of renewed U.N. sanctions if no progress is made by late August. Talks will continue, but key disagreements persist, especially over uranium enrichment. (New York Times, 07.25.25, Bloomberg, 07.21.25)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his nightly address late on July 21 that preparations for another prisoner exchange with Russia, along with the peace talks planned for July 23, were under way. On July 23, Ukraine and Russia conducted their ninth prisoner exchange, swapping 250 POWs each, with many Ukrainians returned after more than three years in captivity. (ISW, 07.24.25, RFE/RL, 07.22.25)
• Russia has blatantly violated international treaties by abducting more than 19,000 children from Ukraine, according to Mariam Lambert, the director of the Emile Foundation, which helps children affected by conflict. (RFE/RL, 07.21.25)
• Ukraine said July 19 it had evacuated 43 of its citizens recently deported from Russia who were being held in Georgia in dire conditions, accusing Moscow of "weaponizing" deportations. (MT/AFP, 07.19.25)
• Yuliia Svyrydenko, Ukraine’s new prime minister said she’s likely to seek more financing from the International Monetary Fund as she sets out to shore up the nation’s fiscal needs with no end in sight to Russia’s war. (Bloomberg, 07.22.25)
• A Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) poll conducted in May–June 2025 found that 47% of Ukrainians now expect their country to be ruined with mass emigration in 10 years, up from 28% in December 2024 and just 5% in 2022. The pessimism surge reflects disillusionment with U.S. President Donald Trump’s broken promises to end the war. Still, 60% of Ukrainians believe the country is moving toward unity. (Ukrainska Pravda, 07.08.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• Russia’s territorial gains totaled 234 square miles in this year’s latest full month, June 2025, which represents an increase of more than 20% compared to the previous full month, May 2025. The June 2025 gain equals an area that is bigger than two Martha’s Vineyard islands. More recently, from June 24, 2025 to July 22, 2025 (29 days), Russian forces gained 180 square miles of Ukrainian territory compared to 216 square miles gained by Russia in the preceding period, May 27–June 24, 2025 (also 29 days), according to the July 23, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (RM, 07.23.25)
• For a number of reasons, including Russia’s numerical advantages in troops and air power, “Russia’s summer offensive in Ukraine is gaining ground as its forces attack on multiple fronts,” according to The New York Times. And Russia is not just seeking to capture more territory. “Its goal is to destroy Ukraine’s military potential, its army,” Valery Shiryaev, an independent Russian military analyst, was quoted as saying. (New York Times, 07.19.25)

Saturday, July 19, 2025

• On July 19, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Kotliarivka, Novomykolaivka, Piddubne, Verkhnekamianske and Fedorivka. (RM, 07.25.25)
• Zelenskyy said Russia launched a large missile and drone barrage overnight, killing at least three people, injuring several. Kremlin forces fired more than 300 drones and 30 missiles of various types across at least 10 regions, Zelenskyy said. Russia, meanwhile, had to suspend trains for about four hours overnight in the southern Rostov region when it came under a Ukrainian drone attack which injured one railway worker. (MT/AFP, 07.19.25, Bloomberg, 07.19.25)

Sunday, July 20, 2025

• On July 20, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Novotoretske, Shevchenko, Poltavka, in Vilne Pole, Oleksiivka and Popovyi Yar. (RM, 07.25.25)
• Russia unleashed a renewed attack on Ukraine. Sirens sounded for more than six hours as Russia fired drones, cruise- and ballistic missiles and the Kinzhal hypersonic missile, Ukraine’s air defense force said July 21 on Telegram. At least one person was killed in Kyiv, and another was hospitalized “with multiple wounds.” (Bloomberg, 07.20.25)
• German and Ukrainian officials assessed that Russia continues to expand its production of Shahed-type drones in order to launch even larger long-range drone strike packages that include up to 2,000 drones in a single night by November 2025. (ISW, 07.20.25)

Monday, July 21, 2025

• On July 21, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Hrushivske and advanced near Voskresenka, Horikhove, Mayak and Zatyshok. (RM, 07.25.25)
• Russia launched 426 Shahed-type drones and multiple missiles—including Kinzhals, Kalibrs and Iskander-Ks—at Ukraine on July 20–21, marking one of the largest strikes since drone attacks began escalating in May. Ukraine downed or suppressed 403 drones and all 24 missiles. Still, 23 drones struck targets, killing 2 and injuring 15, with damage reported in Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv and Kharkiv Oblasts. (ISW, 07.21.25, New York Times, 07.21.25)
  • Mass attacks of Shaheds, an Iranian-designed drone now manufactured in Russia, appear to be overwhelming Ukraine’s beleaguered air defenses, with the drone hit rate reaching its highest levels since Moscow’s invasion, according to Financial Times. “Ukrainian air force data suggests about 15% of the drones penetrated defenses on average between April and June—rising from just 5% in the previous three months,” FT journalists report. (Financial Times, 07.21.25)
• Ukrainian drone attacks triggered another wave of flight disruptions at Moscow’s airports over the weekend, with more than 1,000 flights delayed or canceled, according to Russian media reports. Sheremetyevo, Vnukovo, Domodedovo and Zhukovsky airports faced extensive operational shutdowns. (MT/AFP, 07.21.25)
  • Russian air defenses shot down 15 Ukrainian drones headed toward Moscow early July 21, according to the city’s mayor, Sergey Sobyanin. According to preliminary reports, there are no serious damages or injuries, he said. (Meduza, 07.21.25)

Tuesday, July 22, 2025

• On July 22, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Oleksandhorod, Komar, Voskresenka, Diliyivka, Torske, Karpivka and Leonidivka. (RM, 07.25.25)
• On July 22, Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups were reported to have recently entered southern Pokrovsk through Zvirove and are attempting to envelop the town. (ISW, 07.22.25)
• At least one child has died in the latest wave of Russia's nightly routine of drone and bomb attacks against Ukrainian cities. Apartments burned in Odesa, Sumy, and Kyiv overnight on July 21-22, injuring dozens, as an air strike killed a child in Kramatorsk. Emergency teams rushed to douse flames and crews searched through rubble for survivors. (RFE/RL, 07.22.25)
• By fall, Ukrainian officials say they expect Russia to routinely launch 1,000 drones per volley. (New York Times, 07.22.25)
• Authorities in Russia’s republic of North Ossetia-Alania on July 22 ordered a suspension of all public gatherings, citing alleged threats from Ukrainian intelligence targeting Russian military personnel and their families. (MT/AFP, 07.22.25)
• A Ukrainian drone strike on a bus in an occupied area of southern Ukraine’s Kherson region killed three people and wounded three others on July 22, a Russian-installed official said. (MT/AFP, 07.22.25)

Wednesday, July 23, 2025

• On July 23, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Novoekonomichne and Zelenyi Hai. (RM, 07.25.25)

Thursday, July 24, 2025

• On July 24, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Kamianske and near Yablunivka. (RM, 07.25.25)
• Two women were killed in a Ukrainian drone attack near the resort city of Sochi in southern Russia, regional authorities said early July 24. (MT/AFP, 07.24.25)
• On July 24, Russian drone strikes overnight in the historic center of Odesa injured at least four people. (Financial Times, 07.24.25)

Friday, July 25, 2025

• Russia’s Defense Ministry said July 25 that its air defenses destroyed 105 Ukrainian drones across the country between July 24 night and July 25 morning. Most of the drones were intercepted over regions bordering Ukraine in western and southern Russia, including Bryansk, Rostov, Krasnodar, Kursk, Voronezh and Belgorod. (MT/AFP, 07.25.25)
• On the battlefield, Zelenskyy said Ukrainian forces had succeeded in slowing Russian momentum and the Russians were suffering huge casualties. But that assessment did not fully align with comments from military analysts or from his own troops on the front line. DeepState, a Ukrainian group with ties to Ukraine’s defense ministry that maps the war, said that Russian forces are advancing on the eastern front at the fastest pace in a year. Frontelligence Insight, a Ukrainian analytical group run by a veteran officer, said the situation for Ukrainian forces around the strategic city of Pokrovsk was “critical.” The Russians are also closing in on the nearby city of Kostyantynivka and pummeling it with bombs and drones. (Financial Times, 07.25.25)
• Zelenskyy announced new changes to Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, including the renewal of deputy ministers and additional contracts for drones. He emphasized ongoing audits of international agreements and discussed defense funding with officials. After receiving a report from the defense minister and military intelligence, Zelenskyy promised further “strong” actions. He also highlighted Pokrovsk as the most difficult frontline area and thanked troops for their defense. (RBC.ua, 07.25.25)
• Ukraine’s ambassador to the U.K. and former armed forces chief, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, warned that the full-scale war with Russia could last until 2034 or longer if Ukraine does not strengthen its future defense, saying the conflict has become one of attrition. Other forecasts suggest intense fighting could end by late 2025 or continue for years, as ceasefire proposals remain unresolved. (RBC.ua, 07.25.25)
• After more than three years of war, Kyiv’s push to attract new recruits is facing serious problems. A broad mobilization campaign has become increasingly unpopular, fueled by online videos of military recruitment officials forcibly detaining men on the streets, stuffing them into vehicles and sending them to military training centers. Lowering the mobilization age from 27 to 25 has done little to help, and Zelenskyy has rebuffed Western advice to drop it any further. (Financial Times, 07.25.25)
• According to Ukraine, Russia produces some 5,000 long-range drones of various types each month, or 60,000 per year. Russia also makes over 200 cruise and ballistic missiles per month, according to Ukraine’s HUR intelligence agency, with annual production in the range of 2,400-3,000 missiles. (RFE/RL, 07.25.25)

Military aid to Ukraine 

Friday, July 18, 2025

• Germany and the U.S. are close to an agreement that would dispatch Patriot air-defense systems to Ukraine as the nation comes under mounting missile and drone attacks from Russia. The deal would entail Berlin sending two Patriot batteries to Kyiv from its own inventories, while Trump’s administration will agree to replace the weaponry from industry stocks, according to people familiar with the deliberations. Also, The Trump administration has moved Germany ahead of Switzerland for the next Patriot air-defense systems off the production line, paving the way for Berlin to send two Patriots it already has to Ukraine, according to three U.S. officials. (Wall Street Journal, 07.18.25, Bloomberg, 07.21.25)

Sunday, July 20, 2025

• U.K. Ministry of Defense confirmed the U.K. had sent £150 million ($201 million) of air defense and artillery to Ukraine in the past two months, and said further commitments will be announced during the contact group meeting. They include an agreement between Britain and Germany to procure more air defense ammunition, using 170 million euros ($198 million) of funding from Berlin. (Bloomberg, 07.20.25)

Monday, July 21, 2025

• After skipping recent sessions, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth joined a virtual Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting on July 21, signaling potential renewed American involvement. The shift follows Trump’s promise to support European arms transfers to Ukraine and threaten Russia with sanctions if peace talks stall. Germany and Norway are expected to buy diverted U.S. Patriot systems to supply Ukraine with air defenses. (New York Times, 07.23.25)
• At the July 21 Ramstein-format meeting, Germany pledged five Patriot systems and 200,000 Gepard shells; Canada committed C$20M for Ukrainian tank maintenance; the Netherlands pledged €325M for drones and F-16 upkeep; and Norway allocated €1B for 2025 drone purchases, including €400M for Ukrainian-made systems. (ISW, 07.21.25).
  • The delivery of the first Patriot air defense system to the Ukrainian Armed Forces as part of the aid plan announced by Trump will take place no earlier than eight months from now, that is, in March-April 2026, Spiegel writes, citing sources in the German government. (Istories, 07.23.25)
• U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey launched a “50-day drive” to arm Ukraine before Trump's deadline for 100% secondary tariffs on Russia’s trade partners. Ukraine says it can absorb $6B in DIB investments and aims to boost drone and long-range weapon production, though funding limits will cap 2025 FPV drone output at ~4.5M units. (ISW, 07.21.25)

Tuesday, July 22, 2025

• Ukraine is rapidly scaling up domestic arms production—now covering 40% of its front-line needs—but lacks funding to meet its $35B industrial capacity. Kyiv is asking Western allies to finance local manufacturing instead of just donating weapons. (New York Times, 07.22.25)

Wednesday, July 23, 2025

• Ukraine urgently needs the United States and Europe to transfer more air defense systems and missiles to Kyiv, Ukraine's commander in chief Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi said. Syrskyi urged Trump to allow deep strikes into Russia, saying current restrictions hinder efforts to blunt Russian offensives. He defended last year’s invasion of Russia’s Kursk region, credited it with disrupting Russian attacks and warned Ukraine's manpower crisis remains dire despite new mobilization programs. When Syrskyi turns 60 this week, he will reach Ukraine's military retirement age—but he laughed off any suggestion that he would step down. Following talks with U.S. Gen. Alexus Grynkevich, Syrskyi said air defense systems are already en route and emphasized Ukraine’s determination and allied support amid ongoing Russian offensives. (Korrespondent.net, 07.25.25, Washington Post, 07.23.25)
• The United States on July 23 announced the approval of $322 million in arms sales to bolster Ukraine's air defenses and its armored combat vehicles. The sale of HAWK air defense equipment and sustainment will cost up to $172 million, while Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicle equipment and services will total up to $150 million, the U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) said. (RFE/RL, 07.24.25)

Thursday, July 24, 2025

• Zelenskyy plans to ask European allies to help finance improved salaries for troops resisting Russia’s invasion, in a bid to ease growing shortages of recruits. “Previously, Europeans refused to provide funding for the salaries of our military personnel, only for weapons,” Zelenskyy told reporters in Kyiv on July 24. (Bloomberg, 07.25.25)

Friday, July 25, 2025

• Ukraine has received a new Patriot air defense system this week, following recent talks with the German government, The Telegraph reports. (Telegraph, 07.25.25, RBC.Ua, 07.25.25)
• The U.S. State Department has approved two arms packages for Ukraine: $180 million for equipment, training, and support for U.S.-made air defense systems, and $150 million for maintenance and upgrades of M109 self-propelled howitzers previously supplied to Ukraine. The sale aims to strengthen Ukraine’s defense capabilities without altering the military balance in the region. (RBC.ua, 07.25.25)
• Zelenskyy announced plans for a $10–30 billion agreement for the U.S. to purchase Ukrainian-made drones. (Ukrainska Pravda, 07.25.25)
• Zelenskyy plans to seek help from his Western partners to secure an additional seven Patriot air defense systems following confirmation from Germany and Norway that they would soon send three to Kyiv. (Financial Times, 07.25.25)
• Ukraine faces a budget deficit of $40bn a year due to the war effort. Ukraine would require at least $25bn a year to meet its defense manufacturing needs, including for missiles, drones and electronic warfare systems. Of that, roughly $6bn was urgently needed to increase production of domestically built interceptor drones. (Financial Times, 07.25.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

Monday, July 21, 2025

• Trump’s proposed 100% tariff on Russian goods could spike urea fertilizer prices, threatening U.S. corn and soybean farmers who rely on $1.3B in Russian fertilizer imports annually. (New York Times, 07.21.25)
• Republican leaders in the Senate have paused a vote on new sanctions against Russia, deferring to Trump after he threatened to impose unilateral penalties if Russia doesn’t reach a cease-fire with Ukraine within 50 days. The bipartisan bill, with 85 Senate sponsors, would impose harsher penalties than Trump’s proposed tariffs, including targeting countries buying Russian oil. Congressional action is delayed pending the president’s approach. (New York Times, 07.24.25)
• The Russian Justice Ministry has added the Paris-based Andrei Sakharov Institute to its list of “undesirable” organizations, banning its activities in Russia. (Meduza, 07.24.25)
• When Yale University was banned in Russia as an “undesirable” organization this month, its faculty, administration and students were immediately put at risk of criminal prosecution. One month earlier, Brigham Young University found itself in the same position. (MT/AFP, 07.21.25)
• An Estonian court has sentenced a Russian citizen to six and a half years for spying and sanctions violations. Pavel Kapustin was found guilty of gathering intelligence for Russia’s FSB security agency between 2022 and 2024, transporting sanctioned luxury goods to Russia and providing false information to obtain an Estonian residence permit. (Bloomberg, 07.22.25)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Saturday, July 19, 2025

• Zelenskyy said his country had proposed holding a meeting with Russia next week. “The dynamics of negotiations must be accelerated,” Zelenskyy said July 19. “Everything must be done to achieve a ceasefire. The Russian side should stop hiding from making decisions.” (Bloomberg, 07.19.25)

Sunday, July 20, 2025

• Kyiv sent Moscow an offer to hold a new round of peace talks in the coming week, Zelenskyy said, after negotiations between the countries last month made no progress toward ending the ongoing war. (RFE/RL, 07.20.25)

Tuesday, July 22, 2025 

• The Kremlin on July 22 continued to downplay expectations for an upcoming round of peace negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian delegates, saying it does not believe any breakthrough is likely in the near future. (MT/AFP, 07.22.25)

Wednesday, July 23, 2025

• Ahead of talks with Russia scheduled for July 23 evening in Istanbul, Ukraine’s delegation visited Ankara for a meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, according to Andriy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian President’s Office. Yermak thanked Erdoğan for his consistent support of Ukraine throughout the war with Russia. (Meduza, 07.23.25)
• Officials from Russia and Ukraine ended a third round of formal negotiations in Istanbul with an agreement to swap more prisoners but little sign of progress on a deal to halt the war. The two sides met for less than an hour. Ukraine proposed a summit of the leaders of the two countries by the end of August that should also include Trump and Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Ukrainian delegation leader, Security and Defense Council Secretary Rustem Umerov, told reporters after the talks late July 23. There’s no point to a summit without first having negotiated a peace deal, Russian presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, who led Moscow’s delegation, told a news conference in response. “It doesn’t make sense to meet in order to discuss it all over again from scratch,” he said. (Bloomberg, 07.23.25, MT/AFP, 07.23.25, Wall Street Journal, 07.24.25)
  • The warring sides remain far apart after the third round of U.S.-brokered peace negotiations on July 23. The two sides did expand informal communication channels and agreed to continue resolving humanitarian issues, such as exchanging more prisoners. The heads of the delegations met for the second time privately before the official talks. The private meeting between Umerov and Medinsky lasted longer than the official segment of the talks. (New York Times, 07.24.25)

Friday, July 25, 2025

• The Kremlin has ruled out any meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy prior to reaching a draft peace settlement, rejecting Zelenskyy’s call for leader-level talks to advance the peace process. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said a summit could only formalize a finalized deal, describing the sides’ positions as “diametrically opposed.” The move casts doubt on progress toward a peace agreement within Trump’s 50-day deadline. (Washington Post, 07.25.25, Korrespondent.net, 07.25.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Ukraine’s military intelligence chief says Russia plans to spend $1.1 trillion on rearmament by 2036, signaling preparations for a future war with NATO. ISW notes Russia is restructuring its military and restoring key districts for this purpose. Simultaneously, Moscow is scapegoating officials for border failures and cracking down on dissent, including raiding a Telegram channel that exposed Russian involvement in the 2024 Azerbaijan Airlines incident. (ISW, 07.22.25)
• U.S. Air Force Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, newly appointed Supreme Allied Commander Europe, highlighted at a recent conference his surprise that Ukrainian brigades are authorized and funded to purchase their own weapons—a policy he suggested the U.S. should consider. Given his prior Pentagon leadership role, his lack of awareness raises concerns about broader gaps in U.S. understanding of Ukraine’s war innovations and Russia’s objectives. (UPI, 07.23.25)
• The North American Aerospace Defense Command said that it spotted Russian military aircraft flying near Alaska on July 22, with Russia’s Defense Ministry later confirming its air force carried out a routine patrol in the area. (MT/AFP, 07.24.25)
• Norwegian authorities have charged Mohamed Orahhou, a former security guard at the U.S. Embassy in Oslo, with spying for Russia and Iran. Prosecutors allege Orahhou leaked classified information on Norwegian intelligence agents and U.S. embassy staff in exchange for cash and bitcoin, passing details during meetings in Serbia, Turkey and Norway. He faces up to 21 years in prison if convicted. (New York Times, 07.24.25)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• The U.S. ambassador to NATO said China needed to be “called out for their subsidizing” of Russia’s war in Ukraine as the Trump administration ratchets up its threat to impose tariffs if Moscow does not agree to a peace deal. “China thinks they’re fighting a proxy war through Russia, and we’re seeing in some statements by the Chinese government that they want to keep the United States and our allies occupied with this war, so that we can’t focus on our other strategic challenges,” NATO ambassador Matthew Whitaker said. “China, I think, has miscalculated,” he added. “I think they need to be called out for their subsidizing this killing that is happening on the battlefields in Ukraine.” (Bloomberg, 07.22.25)
• Trade between Russia and China exceeded $240 billion last year, up two-thirds since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Almost 6% of the entire Russian economy now consists of exports to China. That is a proportion equaled by Iran, another country under international sanctions. China’s northbound exports have risen 71% since the start of Chinese cars captured 60% of the Russian market by late summer last year. (New York Times, 07.24.25)
• Russian precious metals exports to China almost doubled in the first half of the year, as record gold prices boost revenue. Chinese imports of Russian precious metal ores and concentrates, including gold and silver, jumped 80% to $1 billion from the same period a year earlier. (Bloomberg, 07.21.25)
• China’s government campaign to reduce dependence on foreign oil is nearing a turning point, with national oil consumption projected to peak by 2027. The country has boosted domestic production and invested over $231 billion in its electric vehicle industry since 2009. Crude output rose 13% from 2018 to 2024, while EV sales surged to nearly half of all new passenger cars last year. Despite remaining reliant on imports for 70% of its oil, China is rapidly expanding its domestic production in remote and offshore regions, including the Tarim Basin and South China Sea. Analysts expect China's shift away from oil to disrupt global markets and impact exporters like Russia and Saudi Arabia. (Wall Street Journal, 07.23.25)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• Putin called the expansion of Russia’s submarine fleet “crucial” in ensuring Russia’s sovereignty and security at a meeting in Severodvinsk. (MT/AFP, 07.25.25)
  • “Increasing the strategic submarine force is among our priority areas. Naturally, the priority in it is the construction of strategic submarine missile carriers, one of the crucial components of our nuclear “triad” that, I repeat, allows Russia to maintain a balance of forces in the world. Four more Borei-A class submarines are scheduled to join our marine nuclear forces in the coming years. Two of them are currently under construction… Currently, the construction of four Yasen-M class multi-purpose nuclear-powered submarine cruisers equipped with cruise missiles is underway at the Sevmash shipyard. Plans include the construction of two more submarines of this class,” Vladimir Putin said during a meeting in Severodvinsk on developing the Navy’s submarine forces. (Kremlin.ru, 07.24.25)
  • “In the very near future, this new missile-carrying submarine will take up duty to safeguard our maritime borders and strengthening the security of the Fatherland. This is already the fifth serial missile carrier of the Borei-A class delivered to the Navy over the past six years. Such submarines form the core of the naval strategic nuclear forces. With their extensive modernization potential, they will ensure the security of our state for decades to come. The Knyaz Pozharsky is equipped with the most advanced radio-electronic systems and strike weapons, such as Bulava ballistic missiles, modern torpedo weapons, and sonar countermeasure systems. Thanks to cutting-edge design solutions, the submarine features advanced power plants and navigation systems, while also offering significantly improved conditions for the crew’s service and rest. Today, there are more than 70 vessels at various stages of construction at Russian shipyards. Here at Sevmash alone, six new nuclear submarines are scheduled to be built by 2030,” Vladimir Putin said during a flag raising ceremony on Knyaz Pozharsky nuclear-powered cruiser in Severodvinsk. (Kremlin.ru, 07.24.25)⁷

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• Starlink outages reported across the world. Investigation to find the cause is said to be underway.” (Ukraine’s defenses and communications depend on Starlink.) (Status-6 X Account, 07.25.25)
• Since May 2025, Russia has imposed widespread cellular internet blackouts, with 654 outages recorded in June—impacting over half the country. While officials claim the measures counter Ukrainian drone operations, independent sources suggest the goal is tighter information control. Fixed-line slowdowns and tested shutdowns have also been reported, disrupting ATMs, payments, and alerts. Major blackouts coincided with a wave of Ukrainian UAS strikes. (UK MOD X Account, 07.25.25)

Energy exports from CIS:

• The European Union said a new set of measures aimed at restricting the flow of fuel made from Russian crude won’t take effect until January, easing some concerns that they would tighten a diesel market in the region that’s already soaring. In legal texts, the EU said the ban will take effect on Jan. 21 next year and affect products obtained in a third country from Russian crude. It followed an announcement July 18 that the group would press ahead with a restriction on the import of refined products, most notably diesel, that are produced in third countries using Russian barrels. (Bloomberg, 07.21.25)
• The European Union sanctioned a prominent Iranian oil trader and several of his companies, part of its latest round of measures targeting Russia over its war against Ukraine. Hossein Shamkhani, whose father is a senior adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was added to the bloc’s sanctions list for his role in the Russian oil trade and as “a central player” in the country’s so-called “shadow fleet,” the EU said. (Bloomberg, 07.21.25)
• Britain on July 21 slapped sanctions on 135 oil tankers in Russia's shadow fleet in a bid to disrupt the flow of money helping Moscow fund the war in Ukraine. A shipping services company and an oil trading firm were also sanctioned as part of the crackdown on a fleet "responsible for illicitly carrying $24 billion worth of cargo since the start of 2024," the Foreign Office said in a statement. (MT/AFP, 07.21.25)
  • The UK sanctioned a trading unit of Russia’s biggest private oil producer Lukoil PJSC as part of 100-plus measures targeting Moscow’s exports. Dubai-based Litasco Middle East DMCC was sanctioned “for its ongoing role in moving large volumes of Russian oil on shadow fleet vessels,” the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office said in a statement. (Bloomberg, 07.21.25)
• A Dutch court has lifted the freeze on Russian energy giant Gazprom’s North Sea assets, clearing the way for the company to resume plans to divest holdings valued in the hundreds of millions of euros. (MT/AFP, 07.22.25)
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the next round of U.S.-China talks could include a discussion of China’s purchases of Russian and Iranian oil, a signal that the focus could shift from more traditional trade issues to ones that cross over into matters of national security. (Bloomberg, 07.21.25)
• An Indian refinery part-owned by a Russia’s Rosneft PJSC tightened conditions for selling products after the European Union imposed sanctions on the company, highlighting the fallout for the processor, its customers, and the wider market from the tougher restrictions. as on ships and some banks—was unveiled last week, spurring swings in crude futures. (Bloomberg, 07.21.25)
• Oil loadings at Russia’s two major Black Sea terminals have been suspended over paperwork related to new security rules for entry into ports, according to Reuters. The suspension has affected the port of Novorossiysk and the Yuzhnaya Ozereevka terminal, the export facility for the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, Reuters reported, citing two unidentified people in the industry. (Bloomberg, 07.23.25)
• Russia’s gas output declined in the first half of the year as higher exports to China and increased domestic demand failed to make up for lost flows to Europe via Ukraine. The nation produced 334.8 billion of natural and associated gas through June, down 3.2% from the same period a year ago, according to Bloomberg. Flows from Russia through Ukraine exceeded 15 billion cubic meters last year. (Bloomberg, 07.23.25)
• The Russian government has prepared a draft resolution to impose a complete ban on gasoline exports, Kommersant reported, citing sources familiar with the matter. According to the outlet’s sources, the embargo will take effect on August 1 and remain in place for at least a month, with a possible extension through the end of September. The suspension of gasoline exports is intended to “cool down the fuel market,” where prices are approaching historic highs, Kommersant noted. (Meduza, 07.25.25)

Climate change:

• Water levels in the Caspian Sea, the world’s largest inland body of water, have dropped to historic lows. Specialists at the Volga-Caspian Fisheries Research Institute said the Caspian’s water level fell to more than 29 meters below the Baltic Sea, a standard reference point used in Russia and some post-Soviet states to measure the depths of landlocked bodies of water across the region. (MT/AFP, 07.24.25)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• Hollywood actor Steven Seagal has cut ties with one of his last remaining business ventures in Russia, the business newspaper Kommersant reported July 22. Seagal, 73, who became a Russian citizen in 2016, resigned as CEO of Five Elements LLC on July 17, according to a corporate database cited by Kommersant. (MT/AFP, 07.22.25)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced plans to organize a meeting in Istanbul between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Erdogan said he will discuss the possibility of such a summit in separate calls with each leader this week. (Korrespondent.net, 07.25.25)
• The Kremlin says Vladimir Putin may meet Donald Trump in Beijing on Sept. 3, during a Chinese military parade marking the 80th anniversary of WWII’s end—just one day after Trump’s 50-day deadline for a Ukraine ceasefire expires. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that such a meeting could occur if Trump attends. The potential summit would come at a critical juncture in U.S.-Russia relations over the Ukraine war. (Newsweek, 07.21.25).
• DNI Tulsi Gabbard’s report claims Obama officials conspired in 2016 to sabotage Trump’s campaign, but top Democrats and past bipartisan investigations say the accusations are baseless. The report conflates Russian hacking attempts with influence ops, ignoring that prior reviews found no vote manipulation, only propaganda efforts to hurt Clinton and help Trump. Gabbard released documents challenging the 2016 intelligence conclusion that Putin favored Trump’s election, calling it a politicized “coup” attempt by the Obama administration. (New York Times, 07.22.25, New York Times, 07.23.25).

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia’s central bank cut its key interest rate to 18% from 20% on July 25, the second reduction in as many months, as economic activity slows after wartime expansion. The move comes amid declining inflation and stagnating domestic demand. The central bank expects 1–2% economic growth in 2025, down from 4.3% last year, and plans to keep monetary policy tight to reach a 4% inflation target by 2027. The bank signaled further gradual rate cuts throughout 2025. (Wall Street Journal, 07.25.25, (Financial Times, 07.25.25, New York Times, 07.25.25)
• The Russian ruble weakened significantly on both the Moscow Exchange and over-the-counter forex markets July 24 after the latest round of peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv ended without significant progress toward ending the war. The yuan rose nearly 2% in the first three hours of trading, hitting 11.1485 rubles, its highest level since late May, before pulling back to 11.04 rubles by 4:39 p.m. Moscow time. On the OTC market, the dollar climbed above 79 rubles for the first time in three weeks, peaking at 79.55 rubles, while the euro surged to 93.5 rubles, the highest in 11 weeks. (MT/AFP, 07.24.25)
• Halfway through 2025, the share of businesses in Russia that are planning to cut jobs has nearly doubled from the beginning of the year, rising from 6.9% in January to 11.5% in July, according to a report by the Russian Central Bank on regional economic trends. (Meduza, 07.21.25)
• Russia has established a new group of officials, described as a “demographic special forces unit," in response to a catastrophic decline in birth rates across the country, the RBC business daily reported July 24. The measure was announced during a press conference by upper-house Federation Council head Valentina Matviyenko. (MT/AFP, 07.24.25)
• Kremlin sources told Meduza there’s a “99-percent chance” Russia will soon ban WhatsApp, its most popular messenger with 97.4 million users, amid concerns it fuels social discontent. Security forces are reportedly pushing the move, despite fears the ban could worsen public backlash amid declining government ratings (Meduza, 07.19.25)
• Russia’s State Duma has passed legislation in its third and final reading making “knowingly searching for and accessing extremist materials,” including through VPN services, a misdemeanor offence, Interfax reports. According to the Telegram channel Ostorozhno, Novosti, the amendments were supported by 306 deputies, with 67 voting against and 22 abstaining. (Meduza, 07.22.25)
  • State Duma lawmaker Mikhail Tarasenko voted 11 times during a parliamentary session on July 22, shortly before the speaker of the lower house announced that he had died. (MT/AFP, 07.23.25)
• President Vladimir Putin has called on Russian investigative authorities to intensify efforts to safeguard what the Kremlin defines as “traditional values” and to counter what he described as mounting foreign interference in domestic affairs. (MT/AFP, 07.25.25)
• Moscow police searched the head office of the Telegram news channel Baza on July 22 morning, the channel said in a statement. Officers also searched the apartment of Baza’s editor-in-chief, Gleb Trifonov, who was not responding to phone calls or messages, according to the outlet. (MT/AFP, 07.22.25)
• Russian state prosecutors have requested an additional four-year prison sentence for Zarema Musaeva, the jailed mother of outspoken critics of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, the rights group Crew Against Torture said July 24. (MT/AFP, 07.24.25)
• Russia’s Supreme Court has ruled to recognize the “international Satanism movement” as an extremist organization and ban it across the country. (Meduza, 07.23.25)
• Andrei Ivanov, recently appointed to lead the airport’s management team, said Domodedovo’s total debt has reached roughly 70 billion rubles ($880 million). That figure includes 34 billion rubles in domestic liabilities and $450 million in foreign currency obligations. Interest payments alone are expected to exceed 8 billion rubles ($100 million) next year. (MT/AFP, 07.24.25)
• According to the latest Levada Center polls, the majority of respondents in Russia continue to assess their personal and family situations as stable, though some difficulties persist. In December 2024, 20% of respondents said that “everything is in perfect order” in their lives, and this share increased to 24% by June 2025. Almost half of those surveyed—47% in December and 45% in June—felt that “things are not so bad, and you can live.” A significant portion, 27% in both December and June, reported that “life is difficult, but bearable.” Only 5% of respondents in both polls stated that their situation was so dire that it was “no longer possible to endure.” Just 1% in each survey found it difficult to answer, according to the poll. (RM, 07.24.25)
• According to the latest Levada Center polls, there have been some notable shifts in the feelings and emotional states of Russians over the first half of 2025. At the beginning of January 2025, the most commonly reported feelings were positive: 40% of respondents said they felt “pride in their people” and 39% reported “hope.” By June 2025, these numbers had fallen slightly, with 35% feeling pride and 34% feeling hope. Some more negative emotions showed minor increases: the percentage of those feeling “confusion” rose from 8% to 10%, and those reporting “offended on behalf of their people” grew from 12% to 13%. (RM, 07.24.25)
• Ramzan Kadyrov, head of Russia’s Chechen Republic, was hospitalized after nearly drowning while on vacation in Bodrum, Turkey. (Meduza, 07.25.25)

Defense and aerospace:

• By Putin’s closed order, Duma deputies introduced amendments for year-round conscription, with medical and commission procedures running Jan 1–Dec 31; conscripts would be sent to troops Apr 1–Jul 15 and Oct 1–Dec 31. The law, likely drafted by the Defense Ministry, partly legalizes existing off-season conscription practices and could be adopted by Jan 1, 2026. (Istories, 07.23.25).
• Russian authorities have expanded efforts to prevent men conscripted into the military from leaving the country by granting security services direct access to military enlistment data, including electronic draft summonses, the pro-Kremlin Telegram news channel Mash reported July 23. (MT/AFP, 07.23.25)
• A senator from Russia’s upper-house Federation Council has called for significant federal spending cuts in order to boost funding for the war in Ukraine and national security. In an article written for the RBC news website, Anatoly Artamonov, the chairman of the Federation Council’s Budget and Financial Markets Committee, said up to 2 trillion rubles ($25.4 billion) could be reallocated annually to cover military and security expenses. (MT/AFP, 07.23.25)
• Russian Air Force started employing in combat a new Izdeliye 180/K-77M air-to-air missile. The missile is a deep modernization of the R-77 with a two-pulse motor, new tail fins, and an active radar homing head. Izdeliye 180 was developed primarily for use by the Sukhoi Su-57.” (Status-6 X Account, 07.25.25)
• The Russian Defense Ministry’s television channel, Zvezda, recently reported that “boys and girls” who left school after ninth grade for vocational college are now working on attack drone assembly in Tatarstan. (Meduza, 07.21.25)
• Russia’s Pacific Fleet has launched a series of naval exercises aimed at testing its ability to protect critical maritime infrastructure. The drills, which began this week in the Far East regions of Primorye and Kamchatka, included joint operations with the Federal Security Service (FSB) and border patrol units, the fleet’s press service said. (MT/AFP, 07.24.25)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• All 48 people aboard an Antonov An-24 passenger plane that crashed in Russia’s Far East on July 24 were killed, regional authorities said, while police investigators announced they had launched a criminal probe into possible violations of air safety rules. (MT/AFP, 07.24.25)
• At least 13 people were killed and 20 others injured when a bus carrying mine workers went over a cliff near the Vostochnaya Denisovskaya coal mine in Russia’s Sakha Republic (Yakutia) on July 20 night. (Meduza, 07.21.25)
• A growing number of Russian regional officials are facing criminal investigations as authorities intensify a crackdown on alleged corruption across regional governments. At least 28 high-ranking officials, including regional ministers, vice governors and their deputies, have come under investigation on charges ranging from bribery and fraud to embezzlement and abuse of office since the start of the year, according to data compiled by the independent Telegram news channel ChTD. (MT/AFP, 07.25.25)
  • Maksim Yegorov former governor of central Russia’s Tambov region has been arrested on suspicion of accepting a bribe, the state-run TASS news agency reported July 24, citing law enforcement sources familiar with the case. (MT/AFP, 07.24.25)
  • Law enforcement authorities in the western Bryansk region charged Vice Governor Nikolai Simonenko with abuse of power following searches of his home and office as part of a corruption probe into the construction of border fortifications, state media reported. Simonenko and Yevgeny Zhura, head of the region’s housing renovation fund, are accused of embezzling public funds allocated for defense infrastructure, a police source said. The source added that the estimated loss to the state is more than 818 million rubles ($10.45 million). Simonenko was reportedly placed under arrest and is expected to be transferred to Moscow, where a court will determine pre-trial restrictions. (MT/AFP, 07.22.25)

• Law enforcement authorities in four Russian regions arrested 20 people suspected of operating scam call centers allegedly coordinated from Ukraine, the FSB security service said in a statement on July 25. (MT/AFP, 07.25.25)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russian sabotage operations in Europe nearly quadrupled from 2023 to 2024, with over 30 confirmed incidents including attacks on undersea cables, water systems, and military assets; the Kremlin increasingly uses criminal proxies like Wagner-linked arsonists in London to conduct deniable operations. While incidents declined in early 2025—possibly due to NATO deterrence or Kremlin caution amid U.S. talks—the IISS warns this lull may be short-lived as Russia regroups for renewed hybrid attacks. (The Economist, 07.23.25).
• Putin has tightened rules for ships entering Russian sea ports from abroad, giving the nation’s main security service a bigger role following a series of mysterious blasts on oil tankers. Starting July 21, the entry of vessels coming from foreign sea terminals is only possible with permission from a port captain, as agreed upon with the Federal Security Service, or FSB, according to a presidential decree published on July 21. (Bloomberg, 07.21.25)
  • Ust-Luga, Russia’s largest port in the Baltic Sea, is insisting that ships’ hulls are inspected before the vessels are allowed to enter the facility, a sign of how a string of mystery blasts involving tankers that went to Russia are affecting the nation’s commodity trade. (Bloomberg, 07.24.25)
• Russia’s state nuclear energy company has blamed “external political factors” for delays in wage payments to workers at the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant under construction in southern Turkey. (MT/AFP, 07.24.25)
• Israel’s ambassador to Russia will step down from her post ahead of schedule, the RBC news outlet reported July 21, citing a diplomatic source familiar with the matter. Simona Halperin, who was appointed in May 2023, will reportedly return to Israel to lead the Israeli Foreign Ministry’s European Affairs Department. (MT/AFP, 07.21.25)
• The UK government didn’t breach voters’ rights by failing to investigate alleged Russian interference in elections, Europe’s top human rights court ruled, rejecting a legal challenge brought by three former lawmakers. (Bloomberg, 07.22.25)
• Austria will double military spending by 2032, aiming to reach 2% of GDP despite budget constraints, Chancellor Christian Stocker told The New York Times. Though not a NATO member, Austria plans to invest $5.8B in air defense and heavy weapons as part of the European Sky Shield Initiative, citing growing insecurity amid Russia’s war on Ukraine. (New York Times, 07.22.25)

Ukraine:⁸

Monday, July 21, 2025

• Ukrainian law enforcement arrested two investigators as part of a sweeping raid on the premises of anti-corruption officials, throwing a spotlight on Kyiv’s longstanding efforts to strengthen the rule of law. An unnamed employee of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau, known as NABU, was detained in Kyiv under suspicion of spying for Russia. The head of a local office of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau in the eastern city of Dnipro was also detained as part of the sweep, according to law enforcement. (Bloomberg, 07.21.25)
  • Sweeping raids at Ukraine’s independent, anti-corruption agency sparked concern among Kyiv’s allies over the government’s dedication to longstanding efforts to strengthen the rule of law. (Bloomberg, 07.21.25)
• The body of 61-year-old Ihor Hrushevskyi, a former officer with the Ukrainian Interior Ministry’s Department for Combating Organized Crime, was found at the Cala Alta residential complex in the Spanish town of Villajoyosa. (Meduza, 07.21.25)

Tuesday, July 22, 2025

• Ukrainian lawmakers approved legislation that would strip the nation’s anti-corruption agencies of their independence and potentially cripple efforts to tackle high-level graft. Lawmakers voted 263 in favor of the bill in the 450-seat legislature in Kyiv July 22, part of a raft of amendments to criminal procedure that moved through Ukraine’s legislature, where President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Servant of the People party has a majority. The bill gives Ukraine’s prosecutor general—who is appointed by the president —power over National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO). Zelenskyy signed the bill into law the same day. (Bloomberg, 07.22.25, Financial Times, 07.22.25, New York Times, 07.23.25)
• Critics say the law was triggered by probes into Zelenskyy’s inner circle and signals a crackdown on dissent amid growing impunity. (The Economist, 07.23.25)
  • Semen Kryvonos, the chief of NABU, demanded that Zelenskyy veto the law. Instead, Zelenskyy signed the bill into law the same day. (Bloomberg, 07.22.25, Financial Times, 07.22.25, New York Times, 07.23.25)
  • Vasyl Malyuk, the head of Ukraine’s domestic intelligence agency, voiced his support for the new law in comments to Ukrainian journalists on July 22. Mr. Malyuk characterized the independent agencies as having been unconstitutional. ''Under the constitution, there can be only one general prosecutor in the country,'' he said. (New York Times, 07.23.25)
  • Critics accused Zelenskyy’s government of dismantling Ukraine’s Western-backed anti-corruption system after raids on NABU and charges against activist Vitalii Shabunin. (New York Times, 07.22.25).

Wednesday, July 23, 2025

• On July 23, Zelenskyy said that he had met with the heads of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO) following the passage of the bill and claimed that “the anti-corruption infrastructure will continue to function—just without Russian influence. (Meduza, 07.23.25)
• Mass protests broke out across Ukraine after President Zelenskyy signed a law placing the country’s two key anti-corruption bodies under the control of the prosecutor general, undermining their independence. Protests also took place in 14 cities, including Kyiv, Odesa, Lviv, Kharkiv, and Ivano-Frankivsk. (Meduza, 07.24.25 (Washington Post, 07.23.25, Bloomberg, 07.23.25)
• Zelenskyy’s controversial move to take control of his country’s anti-corruption bodies poses a risk to European funding and Kyiv’s path to EU accession, top European officials have warned.” (Financial Times, 07.23.25, Financial Times, 07.23.25).
  • The G-7 ambassadors in Kyiv issued a joint statement on July 22 saying the group of advanced economies were “closely following” the issue, and that they have “serious concerns and intend to discuss these developments with government leaders”. The envoys urged a rethink during a meeting that afternoon with Ukraine’s spy chief Vasyl Malyuk, who tried to smooth western concerns. (Financial Times, 07.23.25, Financial Times, 07.23.25)
  • In Washington, Democrat Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham published a statement on July 23 praising the “enormous strides” Ukraine had made on anti-corruption since 2014 despite Russia’s aggression. However, they added, “we fear [the new law] undermines much of that progress.’’ (Financial Times, 07.24.25)
  • The EU warned this could damage Ukraine’s reform credibility and EU accession bid. (Wall Street Journal, 07.22.25)
  • EU economy commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis, who oversees financial assistance to Ukraine, told the Financial Times the two bodies “are crucial to Ukraine’s reform agenda and they must operate independently to fight corruption and to maintain public trust.” (Financial Times, 07.23.25)
  • French President Emmanuel Macron and European Council president António Costa, who represents the bloc’s 27 leaders, spoke with Zelenskyy this week to urge him to rethink the reform, people briefed on the discussions told the FT. (Financial Times, 07.23.25)
    • Corruption and judicial independence have long been two of Brussels’ biggest concerns over Ukraine’s candidacy to join EU, which is the country’s biggest financial supporter. Its accession is currently frozen due to Hungary’s opposition. (Financial Times, 07.23.25)
  • Transparency International’s Ukraine office accused Zelenskyy and his MPs of ‘‘destroying a decade of hard-won progress in anti-corruption reforms.” (Financial Times, 07.23.25)
• On July 23, Ukraine’s two anti-corruption agencies said they had completed and would send to court one aspect of an investigation into what could be the largest fraud in public finance in Ukraine in a decade. The case involves accusations of embezzlement from a lender, PrivatBank, that the government bailed out at a cost of about $5 billion. An owner of the bank, Ihor Kolomoisky, had been a behind-the-scenes patron of Mr. Zelenskyy's presidential campaign in 2019, Ukrainian news media reported. (New York Times, 07.25.25)

Thursday, July 24, 2025

• Zelenskyy retreated from his attempt to bring anti-corruption bodies under executive control after mass protests and international criticism. Taking advice from UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Zelenskyy approved a new bill promising to restore the independence of NABU and SAPO, with the agencies themselves welcoming the move. . It remains unclear how far the new bill will go towards restoring full independence of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (Sapo). Zelenskyy said the revised bill includes “new provisions aimed at protecting against influence” by Russia’s spy agencies, “primarily in response to cases involving certain representatives of NABU.” It calls for employees of all law enforcement agencies, including NABU, who have relatives originating from or residing in Russia to undergo polygraph tests every two years. NABU said that it was hopeful a new bill could restore its powers. The agency noted that both institutions had taken part in drafting the legislation. (Financial Times, 07.24.25, Financial Times, 07.24.25, Meduza, 07.24.25, Financial Times, 07.25.25)
• “It is important that we respect the position of all Ukrainians and are grateful to everyone who stands with Ukraine,” Zelenskyy said in a statement on July 24, when he submitted a new bill on the matter to parliament. (Bloomberg, 07.24.25)

Friday, July 25, 2025

• The Verkhovna Rada decided to hold a meeting on July 31 to consider presidential bill 13533, with which Zelenskyy promises to ensure independence for Ukraine's anti-corruption agencies. On July 22, the Verkhovna Rada adopted law #12414 with amendments to the Criminal Procedure Code, according to which NABU and SAP become dependent on the decisions of the Prosecutor General. (Ukrainska Pravda, 07.25.25, Korrespondent.net, 07.25.25, RBC.ua, 07.25.25)
• Rada speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk urged members of the Verkhovna Rada to support the draft law in full to enable its “urgent signing” by the president. (Bloomberg, 07.25.25)
  • EU Ambassador Katarina Mathernova met with Ukraine’s Prosecutor General Ruslan Kravchenko to stress the importance of maintaining the independence of anti-corruption agencies NABU and SAP and continuing reforms for accountability. (Ukrainska Pravda, 07.25.25)
  • Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said that Poland has urged President Zelenskyy not to abandon the fight against corruption, emphasizing that it is vital for Ukraine to remain on its path toward becoming an honest, European state. (Ukrainska Pravda, 07.25.25)
  • With Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies recently investigating senior members of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's government, this week he and Parliament stripped them of their independence and security forces raided their offices. Zelenskyy quickly reversed course, submitting a bill to Parliament on July 24 to restore the two anticorruption agencies' autonomy. The agencies themselves endorsed the bill and urged lawmakers to pass it. The question now is whether that will be enough to quell the unrest (New York Times, 07.25.25)
• Zelenskyy assured Ukraine’s partners that he would not risk the country’s European integration despite controversy over the new law subordinating NABU and SAP) to the Prosecutor General. He pledged to find a solution meeting the needs of anti-corruption agencies and society. Zelenskyy also explained that he did not consult widely before signing a controversial law limiting the powers of Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies NABU and SAP, citing the war with Russia as his main priority.  (Ukrainska Pravda, 07.25.25. RBC.ua, 07.25.25)
• In mid-July, Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU), with German law enforcement, searched the residence near Munich of ex-presidential deputy Rostislav Shurma, who oversaw economic affairs in President Zelenskyy’s office. Sources say this action contributed to Zelenskyy’s decision to sign a law limiting NABU and SAP's independence. The investigation, which also involves Shurma’s brother, has international dimensions as both now live abroad. (Ukrainska Pravda, 07.25.25)
• After Russia's invasion, government money started shifting from partly state-controlled energy, mining and metallurgy companies -- previously the trough from which corrupt officials fed -- to military spending, analysts have said. The anticorruption bureau has announced several investigations into that spending, accusing insiders of helping to skim about $675,000 from contracts for airplane wheels and about $18 million from a contract for food staples including potatoes. (New York Times, 07.25.25)
• Two district administration heads in Lviv are under suspicion for embezzling over 1.7 million hryvnia intended for restoring homes after a Russian missile strike. Prosecutors allege the officials and a municipal enterprise director inflated costs and approved excessive estimates for post-strike repairs in July 2023, resulting in significant losses to the local budget. Preventive measures for the suspects are being prepared. (RBC.ua, 07.25.25)
• Police have uncovered an organized criminal group led by former MP Dmytro Andrievsky that defrauded a real estate investor of over 20 million hryvnia in Kyiv. The group allegedly resold the investor’s property through shell companies, ultimately converting proceeds into cash. Four suspects, including the ex-MP, face charges of large-scale appropriation, forgery, and money laundering, with two placed on bail and two sought internationally. (Ukrainska Pravda, 07.25.25)
• Zelenskyy has signed laws extending martial law and general mobilization in Ukraine for another 90 days, until November 5, 2025. The decision, justified by ongoing Russian aggression, was approved by the Verkhovna Rada on July 15 and marks the 16th extension since the start of full-scale war. (Korrespondent.net, 07.25.25)
• The National Bank of Ukraine held its key rate at 15.5% for the third consecutive meeting on July 24, it said in a statement on its website. Policymakers see the key rate unchanged through the end of this year. (Bloomberg, 07.25.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Moldovan oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc was arrested in Athens on July 22 after six years evading charges of corruption, fraud, and laundering $1B in Moldova’s “theft of the century.” Once a shadow ruler of Moldova, Plahotniuc faces extradition ahead of a key parliamentary election. Moldovan and Russian authorities both want him for financial crimes involving billions. (Financial Times, 07.22.25).
• Putin signed a law on July 23 that allows Belarusian citizens permanently residing in Russia to vote in local elections and run for local office. (MT/AFP, 07.23.25)
• The proposed Zangezur Corridor—a 43 km stretch in southern Armenia—has become a strategic flashpoint, with global powers vying for influence. Azerbaijan seeks a direct link to Turkey; Armenia fears a loss of sovereignty. Russia wants its FSB to secure the route, while Iran opposes any foreign-controlled corridor cutting its access to Armenia. China views it as a vital part of its Belt and Road “Middle Corridor.” The Trump camp proposes U.S. commercial oversight to exclude Russian and Iranian influence and entrench American leverage. Turkey sees the corridor as central to its pan-Turkic ambitions. Negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan continue, but security, sovereignty, and environmental concerns remain unresolved as all sides press for their competing visions. (India Today, 07.24.25)
• Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has dismissed the first deputy director of state-run news agency TASS, according to an official decree published July 25. The order did not specify a reason for Mikhail Gusman’s dismissal. While no official explanation was given, the move follows public backlash from pro-Kremlin figures over Gusman’s recent appearance at a media forum in Azerbaijan, where he praised President Ilham Aliyev. (MT/AFP, 07.25.25)

IV. Quotable and notable

• “It’s like herding cats in a pen. It doesn’t really help if 26 cats are already wary of moving forward” without Hungary, said one senior EU official in reference to Zelenskyy’s controversial move to take control of his country’s anti-corruption bodies. (Financial Times, 07.23.25)
• “The Russians want to kill us… But you get used to that feeling,” Ukrainian government adviser Liubov Tsybulska wrote on Facebook in reference to Zelenskyy’s controversial move to take control of his country’s anti-corruption bodies. “Much worse is feeling danger from those who govern your country—from your own people, to whom you gave up part of your freedoms during wartime.” (Financial Times, 07.23.25)
• With Trump’s return to office, Fiona Hill sees parallels between the United States and fallen empires. The president, she said, could end up playing a role like that of Boris Yeltsin, who brought on the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. “Trump is deconstructing the United States, just as Yeltsin deconstructed the Soviet Union,” she said.” (New York Times, 07.22.25)
• “I don’t think Putin is really concerned if Trump’s angry, because he thinks there’s a limit to what Trump’s going to do—and I think he’s right,” said Fiona Hill. She predicted that Russia would survive this misadventure, as it has many others in its history. (New York Times, 07.22.25)

Footnotes

1. While Western leaders couched their discontent with Zelenskyy’s attempt to curtain the independence of Ukraine’s corruption watchdogs in mostly diplomatic terms, Ukrainian activists and Western columnists minced no words when expressing their outrage. “The Russians want to kill us . . . But you get used to that feeling,” Ukrainian government adviser Liubov Tsybulska wrote in reference to Zelenskyy’s move. “Much worse is feeling danger from those who govern your country — from your own people, to whom you gave up part of your freedoms during wartime,” according to Financial Times. This newspaper has also described “How Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s power grab sparked his biggest political crisis.” Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Jillian Kay Melchior called it "Zelensky's Corruption Blunder,"  while editors at The Economist’s editorial team have referred to "Outrage in Ukraine as the government attacks anti-corruption watchdogs” and declared that "Volodymyr Zelenskyy has made a strategic blunder."  Meanwhile, Max Boot asserted in his Washington Post column that Zelenskyy needed to be reminded by Ukrainians what “democracy looks like” and they rightly did so.
2. In comparison, Russia’s CPI  declined 28/100 in 2019 to 22/100 in 2024, while Belarus went from 45 in 2019 to 33 in 2024, Latvia went from 56 in 2019 to 59 in 2024 and Kazakhstan went from 34 in 2019 to 40 in 2024.
3. In comparison, Russia was 154th least corrupt, Belarus was 114th least corrupt, and Kazakhstan was 88th least corrupt in 2024.
4. NABU is in charge of investigating corruption allegations, with SAPO tasked with prosecuting the cases once enough evidence is gathered.
5. According to RM’s latest Russia-Ukraine War Report Card, the week preceding July 16 saw Russian forces gain 61 square miles of Ukrainian land, which is triple the rate of the previous week. Moreover, if one compares the monthly rate of change in territorial control in June 2025 (the latest month for which full monthly data is available) with the average monthly rate of change in such control in the five preceding months of this year (Period 1) and in the 18 months (year and a half) that had preceded June 2025 (Period 2), then one sees that the June 2025 rate was considerably higher than the average rate during either of these two periods, regardless of which organization’s data was used to make the calculations (U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War or an online resource that reportedly relies on data from Ukraine-based DeepState, which is affiliated with the Ukrainian MoD).
6. The Pokrovsk area hosts one of two key rail and road junctions in this eastern Ukrainian province and its loss would threaten the entire region’s logistics for Ukraine’s military, according to Frontelligence Insight’s analysis reported by FT.
7. On July 24, 2025, the Borey-A/Project 955A class submarine K-555 Knyaz Pozharsky was officially transferred to the Russian navy at Severodvinsk. Construction began in 2016, and while state trials delayed its acceptance, there is no indication the submarine has conducted a Bulava missile launch. (Russianforces.org, 07.24.25)
8. "The polarizing power of Andriy Yermak, Ukraine’s other wartime leader," Christopher Miller, Financial Times, 07.24.25.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky.