3 Ideas to Explore

1. When hosting NATO’s Secretary-General Mark Rutte on July 14, U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled a deal with the alliance that would send weapons to Ukraine within days while also threating Russia with stiff penalties in his renewed effort to end hostilities between Russia and Ukraine. “We’ve made a deal today where we are going to be sending them [Ukraine] weapons and they [NATO countries] [are] going to be paying for them,” Trump was quoted by The Wall Street Journal as saying in Rutte’s presence. During the same event, the U.S. president also threatened Russia with “secondary tariffs” unless a deal to end the hostilities in Ukraine is reached by early September. “We’re going to be doing very severe tariffs if we don’t have a deal in 50 days, tariffs at about 100%, you’d call them secondary tariffs,” Trump was quoted by Financial Times as saying. However, Russia appears unrattled by Trump’s new ultimatum, The New York Times reports, citing statements by Russian officials and experts. For instance, Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said on July 15 that Moscow wants to understand what is behind Trump’s threat to impose “very severe” tariffs within 50 days. Lavrov also mentioned other time frames that Trump had given previously, including a promise last year to end the conflict within 24 hours. “It used to be 24 hours,” he said. “It used to be 100 days. We have been through all of this, and we really want to understand what motivates the president of the United States.” Lavrov appears to be openly criticizing Trump. Lavrov is usually very professional, so this move seems clearly deliberate and likely coordinated with Vladimir Putin. This provides insight into how Putin assesses Trump—and also suggests that Lavrov is willing to risk angering Trump, possibly to Russia’s detriment. Trump is inconsistent in many things—but not usually in tolerating personal criticism.*
2. “In the battle for Ukraine, the front line is increasingly at a standstill,” The Wall Street Journal reported on July 13.¹ Four days later this newspaper described the situation on the frontline as a “slowdown.” But is it? According to RM’s latest Russia-Ukraine War Report Card, the week preceding July 16 saw Russian forces gain 61 square miles of Ukrainian land, which is triple the rate of the previous week.Moreover, if one compares the monthly rate of change in territorial control in June 2025 (the latest month for which full monthly data is available) with the average monthly rate of change in such control in the five preceding months of this year (Period 1) and in the 18 months (year and a half) that had preceded June 2025 (Period 2), then one sees that the June 2025 rate was considerably higher than the average rate during either of these two periods, regardless of which organization’s data was used to make the calculations (U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War or an online resource that reportedly relies on data from Ukraine-based DeepState, which is affiliated with the Ukrainian MoD). Moreover, the June 2025 rate of advance was higher than that of May 2025 (see Table 2). Thus, it is not accurate to portray the situation on the Russian-Ukrainian front as “increasingly at a standstill.” 

Table 1 

 Table 2

3. In his July 4 call with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Donald Trump said that Ukraine would not change the course of the war by playing defense and needed to go on the offensive, a Ukrainian official claimed in an interview with The Washington Post.  According to The Wall Street Journal’s account of the call, which was also based on an interview with a Ukrainian official, Trump counseled Zelenskyy to take the war to Russia and asked whether Kyiv was able to hit Moscow and St. Petersburg. “Volodymyr, can you hit Moscow? . . . Can you hit St. Petersburg, too?” Trump asked on the call, according to Financial Times. To that question Zelenskyy—whose team has asked the U.S. for Tomahawk missiles that have a range of about 1,600 kilometers—reportedly replied: “Absolutely. We can if you give us the weapons.” Subsequently, however, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt insisted that during the July 4 call Trump "was merely asking a question, not encouraging further killing,” The Wall Street Journal reported on July 15. On July 16, Trump himself said the U.S. wasn't planning to provide long-range missiles to Ukraine as part of an new aid plan, and warned Kyiv against targeting Moscow. If Trump did counsel Zelenskyy to go on the offensive, then his subsequent denial could be part of his negotiating tactics of trying to “squeeze” Putin by alternating threats with backtracking.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• No significant developments.

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• North Korea has supplied Russia with an estimated 12 million artillery shells—equivalent to over 28,000 shipping containers—since the start of the Ukraine war, according to South Korea’s Defense Intelligence Agency. Ukraine’s intel chief says Pyongyang now meets up to 40% of Russia’s ammunition needs. (Bloomberg, 07.14.25)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said North Korea has affirmed its full support for Russia’s war in Ukraine during his visit to Pyongyang. He cited North Korean troop presence in Kursk and expanding military ties. Lavrov also announced increased tourism, maritime links and invitations to future Eurasian security talks. Lavrov said in remarks and answers to media questions following the second round of Russia-DPRK strategic dialogue at the level of foreign ministers in Wonsan: “The DPRK leadership drew its conclusions regarding national defense long before the recent U.S.-Israeli strikes on the Islamic Republic of Iran. ... We respect the DPRK’s actions and understand the reasons why they carry out their nuclear program.” (Bloomberg, 07.12.25, RM, 07.15.25)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin has privately urged Iran to accept a “zero enrichment” nuclear deal with the U.S., despite Moscow’s public support for Iran’s enrichment rights, Axios reports. The shift follows Israel’s recent strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Russia has conveyed its stance to Donald Trump, Emmanuel Macron and Israeli officials, though Iran has so far rejected the idea. (Axios, 07.12.25)
  • Iran’s Tasnim News, which is close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has denied a report that Russia has accepted a proposal under which Iran would not enrich uranium. (JPost, 07.16.25)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Russia returned the bodies of 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed in combat and received the remains of 19 Russian soldiers under a deal reached during last month’s peace talks in Istanbul, authorities in Moscow said July 17. An anonymous source told RIA Novosti that Russia planned to return the bodies of 2,000 more Ukrainian soldiers in the near future. (MT/AFP, 07.17.25)
• Russian officials have said that more than 150,000 people were successfully evacuated from the Kursk border region, and that the idea the government did too little to help people escape was false information spread by the Ukrainian news media. (New York Times, 07.12.25)
• Russia announced that its 2022 agreement with the U.N. to facilitate exports of Russian food and fertilizers will not be renewed, blaming Western sanctions for the collapse. The U.N. confirmed the deal will expire on July 22. A source close to the talks cited unresolved disagreements. (Moscow Times, 07.12.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the past week, Russia gained 61 square miles of Ukrainian territory (about the size of Staten Island)—triple the rate of the previous week’s unusually low gain of 18 square miles. In Russia, Ukraine continued to maintain a foothold of 5 square miles total across Russia’s Kursk and Belgorod regions, a figure that has not changed in the past month, according to the July 16, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (RM, 07.16.25)
• Russian forces have seized 2,395 km² of Ukrainian territory since January 2025—nearly the size of Luxembourg—with the pace of advance accelerating compared to 2024; projections suggest over 4,000 km² could be lost by year’s end if the trend continues. This was reported by Bild, citing Ukrainian and Russian military bloggers. In June alone, Ukrainian armed forces abandoned some 20 villages. Due to a shortage of personnel, the Ukrainian command allocates 5-10 people to defend small settlements, while Russian units of 20-50 soldiers are advancing on them. (Bild, 07.18.25 Korrespondent.net, 07.18.25).
• Russian forces continue to make slow but methodical advances across several sectors of the front, according to the Institute for the Study of War. Since July 2024, Russian troops have seized approximately 454 square kilometers of territory around Kupyansk. In the Pokrovsk area, Russian advances since November 2024 have amounted to around 1,394 square kilometers, while operations in western Donetsk have yielded roughly 1,057 square kilometers since January 2025. Despite these gains, the overall rate of advance remains limited, averaging only 1 to 5.5 square kilometers per day across different sectors. (ISW, 07.14.25)
  • Ukrainian population centers in the areas around Pokrovsk are feeling increasingly threatened as Russian forces appear to be moving beyond the Donetsk region frontline city. In Dobropillya, 30 kilometers to the north of Pokrovsk, locals report a spike in overnight drone attacks, and a Russian bomb struck a shopping center on July 16, killing at least three. (RFE/RL, 07.17.25)
• In the battle for Ukraine, the front line is increasingly at a standstill. The reason: rapid innovations in drone technology. (Wall Street Journal, 07.13.25)
• Ukrainian intelligence assesses that Russia is unlikely to capture all of Donetsk Oblast by the end of 2025. (ISW, 07.11.25)
• More than 24,000 drones have barreled toward Ukraine’s towns and cities since the start of this year, according to an analysis of Ukrainian figures by the Center for Information Resilience, a U.K.-based open-source investigations organization. Ukrainian officials say Russia is now producing more than 5,000 of the long-range drones and decoys each month, with some able to fly 2,500 kilometers to their target. That has allowed Moscow to saturate Ukraine’s skies with the flying machines. (Wall Street Journal, 07.10.25)
• Ukrainian intelligence reported that by the beginning of July, Russia had attracted more than 700,000 servicemen to the war. This is a new record. In just two months, their number has increased by 60,000. (Bild, 07.18.25)

Friday, July 11, 2025

• Ukraine’s SBU intelligence service announced it killed two Russian-linked operatives responsible for assassinating Col. Ivan Voronych, a senior special forces officer, in Kyiv on July 11. The suspects, allegedly FSB-directed and identified as Azerbaijani nationals, were eliminated in a gunfight near Kyiv. (Financial Times, 07.14.25)

Saturday, July 12, 2025

• On July 12, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces captured Razine and advanced near Vidrodzhennia, Toretsk, Diliyivka and Krasne Pershe. (RM, 07.18.25)
• Ukraine said Russia launched 623 drones and missiles overnight, killing four and wounding dozens. Zelenskyy called for new sanctions, citing the use of nearly 600 Shahed drones. Strikes hit multiple regions, including Lviv and Chernivtsi. Russia claimed it targeted military sites. Ceasefire talks remain stalled. Ukraine shot down 319 drones and 25 missiles. Russia said it targeted military facilities. (Moscow Times, 07.12.25, Bloomberg, 07.12.25)
• A Ukrainian drone attack on the southern city of Voronezh early July 15 wounded at least 22 people, local officials said, as Russia's Defense Ministry reported destroying dozens of drones across multiple regions overnight. Voronezh region Gov. Alexander Gusev said a teenager was among those wounded in the attack, with 17 people hospitalized overall. (MT/AFP, 07.15.25)
• Kyiv will allocate $6.2 million to expand Ukraine’s Clean Sky program, which uses interceptor drones to defend against nightly Russian drone strikes. The initiative has reportedly downed 550 drones over Kyiv City and nearly 650 across the oblast in four months. Officials say these drones help reduce defense costs, though only U.S.-provided Patriots can intercept ballistic missiles. (ISW, 07.11.25)
• Russian forces advanced toward Velykyi Burluk in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast, likely aiming to link operations near Vovchansk and Dvorichna and create a buffer zone along the border. Geolocated footage shows movement southwest of Milove. Elements of the 83rd and 72nd Motorized Rifle Divisions are involved, with some units redeployed from northern Sumy. (ISW, 07.12.25)

Sunday, July 13, 2025

• On July 13, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Novomykhailivka, Romanivka, Oleksandr-Kalynove, Popiv Yar, Piddubne, in Boykivka and Myrne. (RM, 07.18.25)
• A reported 87% of Ukraine’s M1 Abrams tanks have been destroyed, captured or lost since their deployment, with only 4 of 31 still operational, according to Military Watch Magazine. Older M1 variants have struggled against Russia’s advanced anti-tank systems, highlighting the vulnerability of Western MBTs on the modern battlefield. (National Interest, 07.13.25)

Monday, July 14, 2025

• On July 14, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces captured Bahatyr and advanced near Razine, Novokhatske, Tolstoy, Oleksiyivka and Malynivka. (RM, 07.18.25)
• Satellite imagery analyzed by ISW shows Russia is building protective bunkers and shelters at key airbases — including Khalino and Saki — in response to Ukraine’s deep-strike drone campaign “Operation Spider’s Web.” The June 1 attacks reportedly destroyed high-value assets like Tu-22M and A-50 aircraft. Moscow has since relocated strategic bombers to more remote bases and accelerated airfield fortification. (Moscow Times/AFP, 07.14.25)
• On July 14, NATO SG Matt Rutte said 100,000 Russian soldiers have died in the war this year. (Wall Street Journal, 07.14.25)

Tuesday, July 15, 2025

• On July 15, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Ambarne, Udachne, Tolstoy and Fedorivka. (RM, 07.18.25)
• Debris from a Ukrainian drone strike injured 16 people in the Russian city of Voronezh, including two seriously, according to regional Gov. Alexander Gusev. The strike damaged apartments and private homes in multiple districts. (Meduza, 07.15.25)

Wednesday, July 16, 2025

• On July 16, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces cocupied Shevchenko and advanced near Zelene Pole, Myrne, Pishchane and Hatyshche. (RM, 07.18.25)
• On the night of July 15–16, Russian forces conducted a large series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine, heavily targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched one Iskander-M ballistic missile and 400 Shahed-type and decoy drones. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 198 Shahed-type drones and that 145 decoy drones were "lost" or suppressed by Ukrainian electronic warfare systems. The strike package largely targeted Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast; Kharkiv Oblast; and Vinnytsia City, Vinnytsia Oblast, and Ukrainian officials reported that the strikes also damaged civilian, industrial, and energy infrastructure in Mykolaiv and Odesa oblasts. (ISW, 07.16.25)
  • A Russian airstrike on a central square in the frontline town of Dobropillia on July 16 killed one person and wounded more than 20, with more casualties feared trapped under the debris, Ukrainian officials said. (MT/AFP, 07.16.25)
  • In the Vinnytsia region, drones struck industrial facilities in the city of Vinnytsia and damaged residential buildings in surrounding areas, according to Natalia Zabolotna, deputy head of the regional military administration. As of 6:40 a.m. local time, seven people had been reported injured in the city, five of whom suffered burns. (Meduza, 07.16.25)
• A young man was killed and another was wounded when a Ukrainian drone struck their car near a border village in the southwestern Belgorod region, authorities said July 16. (MT/AFP, 07.16.25)

Thursday, July 17, 2025

• On July 17, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Voskresenka, Zelenyi Hai and Yablunivka. (RM, 07.18.25)
• On July 17, Russia's Defense Ministry said its air defenses downed 122 Ukrainian drones overnight into July 17, as both countries lean into aerial assaults amid a slowdown on the battlefield and stalled efforts to achieve peace. The mayor of Moscow, Sergei Sobyanin, said three drones flying toward the Russian capital were destroyed. Authorities said a district just east of St. Petersburg was targeted. Still, the scale of recent Russian attacks on Ukraine outweighs those launched in the other direction. In one salvo last week, Russia unleashed more than 700 drones and missiles across Ukraine, the largest such assault of the war, now well into its fourth year. (Wall Street Journal, 07.17.25)  

Friday, July 18, 2025

• On July 18, Russian drone and bomb attacks on Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions killed at least three people, including a train driver and a 64-year-old man, and damaged civilian infrastructure. (Meduza, 07.18.25)
• On July 18, the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported repelling Russian attacks from 12 directions. The Pokrovsk direction remains the most active. There, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have already stopped more than 20 Russian assaults in the areas of 12 settlements. (Korrespondent.net, 07.18.25)
• As of July 18, the Russian army’s breakthrough between the cities of Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, north of Donetsk, was expanding. Russia’s forces are advancing near the Kleban-Bykske Reservoir southwest of Kostiantynivka, forcing Ukrainian troops to withdraw from their remaining positions on the outskirts of Toretsk. At the same time, Russian units are attempting to encircle Pokrovsk from the north. Russian forces are now approaching Rodynske. If Rodynske is captured, the Pokrovsk agglomeration will effectively be cut off from Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, severing its direct link with the forces defending Kostiantynivka. (Meduza, 07.18.25)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• Around two weeks ago, the Pentagon announced it would halt the supply of Patriot air-defense systems and other precision weapons to Ukraine. When German Chancellor Friedrich Merz heard about the decision, he immediately requested a call with U.S. President Donald Trump. On July 3, Trump, calling from the Oval Office with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at his side, spoke with Merz and appeared unaware that the deliveries had been stopped. “Pete, what’s going on?” he asked, according to people familiar with the conversation. Within days, the Pentagon reversed its decision. Then, on the night of July 11, after watching footage of fresh Russian airstrikes pounding Ukrainian cities, Trump called Merz directly on his cellphone to vent his frustration over Putin’s ongoing assault. Merz was caught off guard but quickly realized that Trump had lost patience with the Russian president. In that call, Trump told Merz he was now ready to accept an offer the chancellor had made just days earlier: Germany would use its own funds to buy U.S.-made weapons for Ukraine. According to two of Merz’s aides, they considered securing Trump’s agreement on this plan their biggest diplomatic success yet. (Wall Street Journal, 07.15.25)
• During a July 4 call with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Donald Trump said that Ukraine would not change the course of the war by playing defense and needed to go on the offensive, an Ukrainian official claimed in an interview with Washington Post.  According to Wall Street Journal’s account of the call, which was also based in an interview with an Ukrainian official, Trump counseled Zelensky to take the war to Russia and asked whether Kyiv was able to hit Moscow and St. Petersburg. “Volodymyr, can you hit Moscow? . . . Can you hit St Petersburg too?” Trump asked on the call, according to Financial Times. To that question Zelenskyy – who teams has asked U.S. for Tomahawk missiles that have a range of about 1,600km, reportedly replied: “Absolutely. We can if you give us the weapons.” Subsequently, however, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt insisted that during the July 4 call Trump "was merely asking a question, not encouraging further killing,”  Wall Street Journal reported on July 15. On July 16  Trump himself said the U.S. wasn't planning to provide long-range missiles to Ukraine as part of an new aid plan, and warned Kyiv against targeting Moscow. (RM, 07.18.25).
  • Trump’s determination to squeeze Putin was conveyed in a conversation last week with Zelenskyy, a source told The Washington Post. A source involved in the Trump team’s decision said that this is likely to include permission to use the 18 long-range ATACMS missiles now in Ukraine at their full range of 300 kilometers (about 190 miles). That wouldn’t reach all the way to Moscow or St. Petersburg. (Washington Post, 07.14.25)²

Saturday, July 12, 2025

• Ukraine has requested 10 Patriot missile systems; Germany and Norway will fund three. ISW stressed these systems are critical to defend against Russian missile strikes. (ISW, 07.12.25)
  • A senior German defense official confirmed Berlin's intent to purchase two U.S.-made Patriot air-defense systems for Ukraine. (ISW, 07.13.25)
• NATO allies have proposed buying U.S. weapons themselves and transferring them to Ukraine—a plan Trump now supports. This workaround would avoid direct U.S. involvement while expediting aid like Patriot systems amid escalating Russian strikes. European leaders back the plan, which could boost U.S. arms sales and ease export restrictions. (New York Times, 07.12.25)

Monday, July 14, 2025

• While hosting NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte in the Oval Office on July 14, Trump said: “We are very unhappy — I am — with Russia,” adding that he had thought they were close to an agreement at least four separate times. “I’m disappointed in President Putin, because I thought we would have had a deal two months ago. … My conversations with him are always very pleasant” but then “the missiles go off at night,” Trump said. “He talks nice and then he bombs everybody in the evening,” Trump said of Putin. “We’re going to be doing very severe tariffs if we don’t have a deal in 50 days, tariffs at about 100%, you’d call them secondary tariffs,” Trump said. The president has said “billions of dollars’ worth of military equipment” would be purchased from the U.S. by NATO allies to “be quickly distributed to the battlefield” in Ukraine. Trump pledged to provide Patriot missiles, air defense weapons and artillery—selling them to NATO countries that would then pass them on to Ukraine. That military assistance package totals $10 billion, a source briefed on the deal said. It will give Ukraine and its battered people some breathing space from a Russian barrage that included more than 700 missile and drone attacks on some days last week, according to Washington Post columnist David Ignatius. (Financial Times, 07.14.25, Financial Times, 07.15.25, Bloomberg, 07.14.25, New York Times, 07.14.25, Washington Post, 07.14.25)
• Reactions to Trump’s announcements:
  • Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a right-wing congresswoman, suggested that the president’s new proposal to help speed weapons to Ukraine betrays the promise to voters to end U.S. involvement in foreign conflicts. Taylor Greene on July 14 harshly criticized Trump’s new plan to help speed weapons deliveries to Ukraine, saying it breaks a key promise that he and many in his party made to voters to end U.S. entanglement in conflicts overseas. (New York Times, 07.15.25)
  • Trump’s proposed 100% tariff on Russian goods threatens U.S. farmers by raising fertilizer costs, especially urea and ammonium nitrate, of which Russia supplies nearly half of U.S. imports. Rising input costs could force some farmers out of business amid already-low corn and soybean prices. (New York Times, 07.18.25)
  • German defense minister Boris Pistorius said in Washington on July 14 that he was confident the U.S. would agree to a request from Berlin to buy two Patriot air defense systems for Kyiv. Germany, Finland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands and Canada all hope to be part of the weapons deal, according to Rutte. (Financial Times, 07.15.25)
  • Russia appears unrattled by Trump’s new ultimatum aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. Moscow wants to understand what is behind Trump’s threat to impose “very severe” tariffs within 50 days, Lavrov said July 15. Lavrov mentioned other time frames that Mr. Trump had given previously, including a promise last year to end the conflict within 24 hours. “It used to be 24 hours,” he said. “It used to be 100 days. We have been through all of this, and we really want to understand what motivates the president of the United States.” (New York Times, 07.16.25)
  • Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said July 15 that Russia "didn't care" about what he described as no more than "a theatrical ultimatum to the Kremlin." (Washington Post, 07.15.25)
  • Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow needs more time to analyze Trump's comments, which he said were "quite serious." "For now, we can say one thing unequivocally: It seems that such a decision, which is being taken in Washington, in NATO countries and directly in Brussels, is perceived by the Ukrainian side not as a signal for peace, but as a signal for the continuation of war," Peskov said. (Washington Post, 07.15.25)
  • Russia rejected Trump’s threat to impose 100% “secondary tariffs” unless a ceasefire is reached in Ukraine within 50 days, with Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov calling such ultimatums “unacceptable.” While Kremlin spokesman Peskov said Moscow would review Trump’s statement, the ruble and Moscow Exchange rose modestly. Trump pledged Patriot missile systems for Ukraine, to be paid for by NATO allies, and said the U.S. was “not buying it, but will manufacture it.” German Chancellor Merz and NATO chief Rutte endorsed the plan, but China warned against “long-arm jurisdiction.” (Bloomberg, 07.15.25)
  • A Russian official speaking on the condition of anonymity said the Kremlin believes it has the upper hand. Russia "felt the support of its Chinese brother. And it felt the total support of its North Korean brother." North Korea has been sending troops and ammunition to support Russia. Economists say Russia can sustain its war effort for another 18 to 20 months despite the mounting economic problems under the current sanctions regime, as long as oil prices do not drop for a prolonged period. (Washington Post, 07.15.25)
  • The Moscow Exchange rose over 1% after Trump threatened 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian energy unless the Kremlin agrees to a peace deal within 50 days. Stocks like Polyus, Sovcomflot, VTB and MD Medical Group led the gains. (Moscow Times/Agence France Presse, 07.15.25)
  • Oil markets seemed unmoved by the threat of tariffs, even though they could potentially hit countries such as China, India and Brazil. That suggests skepticism that they will ever be applied. (The Economist, 07.14.25)
    • Trump’s threat of 100% secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil risks backfiring with India and China. Trade experts warn the levies would be hard to enforce and could damage diplomatic ties. Indian officials doubt the threat's seriousness, while Chinese analysts signal Beijing could retaliate forcefully if targeted. (Bloomberg, 07.15.25)
  • Zelenskyy thanked Trump for his “willingness to support” Kyiv hours after the U.S. leader vowed to provide a major influx of new weapons to Ukraine and threatened Russia with “severe” new financial measures. (RFE/RL, 07.15.25)
    • In Ukraine, relief that the flow of weapons would restart mixed with concern at the 50-day delay in imposing economic penalties, which comes after Trump repeatedly gave Russia two weeks to reach a deal. Oleksandr Merezhko, a prominent member of the parliamentary party of Zelenskyy, hailed the “good news.” But he cautioned that “these 50 days might be dangerous for us, because Putin will definitely use it” to press his attacks. (The Economist, 07.14.25)
• U.S. special envoy Keith Kellogg met Zelenskyy in Kyiv to discuss air-defense cooperation and sanctions (RFE/RL, 07.14.25)

Tuesday, July 15, 2025

• During a meeting with U.S. defense officials and intermediaries from NATO governments, Zelenskyy received a list of long-range strike systems that potentially could be made available to Ukraine via third-party transfers. (Financial Times, 07.15.25)
• Less than two years ago, House Republicans were so livid about the idea of continuing to aid Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression that they deposed their own speaker, Kevin McCarthy, in part to protest what they said was a “secret side deal” he had made to do so. But now, more than three years into the war, many Republicans in Congress who have railed consistently against sending more money and weapons to Ukraine and clamored to end American involvement in the war are rushing to shift their stance, following the lead of  Trump. (New York Times, 07.15.25)

Wednesday, July 16, 2025

• On July 16, Trump said the U.S. wasn't planning to provide long-range missiles to Ukraine as part of a new aid plan, and warned Kyiv against targeting Moscow. His remarks to reporters at the White House saw him continue his pattern of alternating between pressure on Russia and Ukraine. Trump has announced that shipments of new air defense missiles for Ukraine’s Patriot systems, which he promised on July 13, are already underway. “They’re already being shipped. They’re coming in from Germany and then replaced by Germany, and in all cases, the United States gets paid back in full,” Trump told reporters at Andrews Air Force Base on July 15. A day earlier, Trump said that Patriot missiles and batteries would arrive in Ukraine “very soon, within days.” He mentioned “17 Patriots ready to be shipped,” though did not explain exactly what this number referred to. (Meduza, 07.16.25, RFE/RL, 07.16.25, Wall Street Journal, 07.17.25)
• An unnamed NATO representative told Ukrainian outlet Suspilne that the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU) fund will coordinate NATO purchases of U.S. weapons for Ukraine. The representative also stated that Germany, Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Canada and Finland have confirmed participation in this U.S.-led effort, in addition to these states' existing commitments to the NSATU fund, the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (the Ramstein format), and various bilateral and multilateral agreements with Ukraine. (ISW, 07.16.25)

Thursday, July 17, 2025

• Trump and Zelenskyy are considering a “mega deal” that would see the U.S. buy battlefield-tested Ukrainian drones in exchange for Kyiv agreeing to buy a swath of weapons from America, the Ukrainian leader said. Zelenskyy revealed that his latest talks with Trump focused on a breakthrough deal that would see the U.S. and Ukraine prop up each other’s aerial technology — with Kyiv offering to share everything it’s learned about modern warfare in the three-year conflict with Russia. “I think this is really a mega deal, a win-win, as they say,” he added. (New York Post, 07.17.25) 

Friday, July 18, 2025

• The U.K. intends to co-purchase U.S. Patriot systems for Ukraine with Germany and may buy additional U.S. weapons independently. This move supports Trump’s NATO burden-sharing plan and aims to accelerate air-defense deliveries before further Russian strikes. London and Paris also agreed to rotate command of a planned post-peace stabilization force. (Bloomberg, 07.18.25)
• The U.K. and Germany will co-host an online meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group on July 21, with NATO’s Secretary General, SACEUR, U.S. Secretary Pete Hegseth, and dozens of allies and partners. Ukraine’s new Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal announced that the next Ukraine Defense Contact Group (“Ramstein”) meeting will be focusing on technical and coordination issues. (RBC.ua, 07.18.25, UKNATO, 07.18.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

Tuesday, July 15, 2025

• NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned that Brazil, China and India will face secondary sanctions from the U.S. if Russia doesn’t negotiate a peace deal with Ukraine, and said they should lean on Putin to agree to a ceasefire. “My encouragement to these three countries particularly is if you live now in Beijing or in Delhi, or you’re the president of Brazil, you might want to take a look into this, because this might hit you very hard,” Rutte told reporters July 15. “So please make the phone call to Vladimir Putin and tell him that he has to get serious about peace talks, because otherwise this will slam back on Brazil, on India and on China in a massive way,” he said. (Bloomberg, 07.15.25)

Wednesday, July 16, 2025

• Russia’s Higher School of Economics’ School of Law will open the "first in Russia" two-year master's degree program in sanctions bypassing starting from the new academic year, according to the university's website. (Istories, 07.16.25) One of signs that Russian authorities expect sanctions to remain a serious problem in years ahead is that the Moscow-based Higher School of Economics, one of Russia's top universities, has launched a two-year master's program whose graduates will major in evading sanctions.
• Italy's culture minister joined the widow of Russian opposition activist Alexei Navalny on July 15 in condemning an invitation for maestro Valery Gergiev to perform near Naples, warning it could serve as propaganda for the Kremlin. (MT/AFP, 07.15.25)

Thursday, July 17, 2025

• Russian lawmakers have revised legislation that will give Putin expanded authority to prevent foreign companies from buying back assets they sold when exiting the country, Interfax reported July 16. The changes underscore Russia’s push to lock Western companies out of strategic sectors and further entrench domestic control over foreign business assets that were abandoned after the invasion of Ukraine (MT/AFP, 07.17.25)

Friday, July 18, 2025

• The European Union agreed to impose its toughest sanctions on Russia since its large-scale invasion of Ukraine, blocking attempts to revive the Nord Stream gas pipelines, lowering a price cap for Russian oil sales and hitting banks from third countries in a move that could exacerbate tensions with China. The sanctions, which constitute EU’s 18th sanctions package against Russia over its war in Ukraine,  lower for the first time the price cap on Russian oil exports. The cap permits the provision of Western transport, trade and insurance services for Russian exports only if the purchase price is below the cap. The new cap will be $47.60 per barrel, down from $60 and will be revised every three months to stay 15% below the market price for Russian exports. Russian crude oil was selling at $59.42 per barrel on July 17 according to Argus, a price-reporting agency. (Wall Street Journal, 07.18.25, Reuters, 07.18.25) Click on Reuters link for more details on what the package includes.

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• Putin intends to keep fighting in Ukraine until the West engages on his terms for peace, unfazed by Trump's threats of tougher sanctions, and his territorial demands may widen as Russian forces advance, three sources close to the Kremlin said. "Putin thinks no one has seriously engaged with him on the details of peace in Ukraine—including the Americans—so he will continue until he gets what he wants," one of the sources told Reuters. Putin's conditions for peace include a legally binding pledge that NATO will not expand eastwards, Ukrainian neutrality and limits on its armed forces, protection for Russian speakers who live there, and acceptance of Russia's territorial gains, the sources said. He is also willing to discuss a security guarantee for Ukraine involving major powers, though it is far from clear how this would work, the sources said. (Reuters, 07.15.25)
• Trump’s special envoy Keith Kellogg left Ukraine on July 16. Kellogg arrived in Kyiv on July 14. During the first two days, he managed to meet with the highest-ranking Ukrainian officials. (RBC.ua, 07.17.25)
• Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov reiterated that Russia is open to negotiations with Kyiv, but warned that without reciprocal engagement, Moscow will pursue its goals militarily. (Meduza, 07.15.25)
• During a July 16 press conference, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called upon the U.S. to encourage Ukraine to resume peace negotiations with Russia, saying, per Tass: "In this case, the main mediating efforts are coming from the United States—President Trump and his team. Many statements have been made, many expressions of disappointment voiced, but we certainly hope there is also pressure on the Ukrainian side." (Newsweek, 07.16.25.)
• Peskov welcomed Zelenskyy’s call to energize peace talks, saying Moscow agrees on the need to “add dynamics” to the negotiation process. (Interfax, 07.18.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• The U.S.-led NATO alliance must prepare for the possibility that Russia and China could launch wars in Europe and the Pacific simultaneously, with 2027 being a potential flashpoint year, the top American commander in Europe said July 17. U.S. European Command’s Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich, speaking at a meeting of military and defense industrial leaders in Wiesbaden, said the situation means allies have little time to prepare. “We’re going to need every bit of kit and equipment and munitions that we can in order to beat that,” Grynkewich said. (Stripes.com. 07.17.25)

• Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the Ukrainians have continuously innovated to find the kinds of equipment they need for defensive operations. The allies of NATO might study the work done there and find out how to do it themselves, said the supreme allied commander Europe, Gen. Alex Grynkevich. All of us who've studied warfare know that there's nothing like combat operations to drive innovation; when your life depends on it, you change what you're doing," he said during a session yesterday at the 2025 LANDEURO symposium in Wiesbaden, German. (SAFIA.HQ.AF.Mil, 07.18.25)

• U.S. Army Europe commander Gen. Christopher Donahue announced NATO’s “Eastern Flank Deterrence Line” to counter Russia, emphasizing interoperable, optionally manned ground-based systems, common launchers and AI-powered battlefield data-sharing across allies. “We know what we have to develop and the use case that we’re using is you have to [deter] from the ground,” he said. “The land domain is not becoming less important, it’s becoming more important. You can now take down [anti-access, aerial-denial] A2AD bubbles from the ground. You can now take over sea from the ground. All of those things we are watching happen in Ukraine.” Donahue noted that Kaliningrad, Russia, is roughly 47 miles wide and surrounded by NATO on all sides and the Army and its allies now have the capability to “take that down from the ground in a timeframe that is unheard of and faster than we’ve ever been able to do.” (Defense News, 07.16.25)
• French Army Chief Thierry Burkhard said Russia views France as its primary European adversary due to its strong support for Ukraine. He cited satellite interference, submarine patrols, disinformation campaigns and covert actions as evidence of Russian hostility. Burkhard warned that Russia remains a long-term threat with full-spectrum military capabilities. (New York Times, 07.12.25)
• Some 8 of 10 European countries name Russia as their greatest threat – including France, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, U.K. and ties in Spain. (Pew, July 2025)
• Russia’s ambassador to Denmark has warned of “military and technical measures” if an armed conflict breaks out over Greenland. (MT/AFP, 07.17.25)
• Russia has formally notified international regulators that it will treat European satellites suspected of aiding Ukraine’s military as legitimate targets for signal jamming, the Space Intel Report website wrote July 17. (MT/AFP, 07.17.25)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Trade between Russia and China fell 9.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 to $106.5 billion, with both exports and imports declining. Russia’s trade surplus with China dropped 10.2%. The slowdown reflects declining momentum since 2023, when bilateral trade surged. Russia remains reliant on China amid Western sanctions, while Beijing’s overall exports surged to record highs. (Moscow Times/AFP, 07.14.25)
• Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged to deepen China's support for Russia after Trump threatened to levy sweeping secondary sanctions on Russia's trading partners if the Kremlin does not stop its war in Ukraine in 50 days. During his visit to China for a SCO meeting, Lavrov was received by Xi on July 15. During the meeting, Xi said both nations must implement the "key agreements" reached during his recent talks with Putin, Chinese state media reported July 15. Xi called for stronger alignment between the two countries in multilateral institutions and urged them to work together to unite the “Global South,” a term often used by China and Russia to describe developing nations skeptical of Western dominance. The official Xinhua News Agency cited Xi as saying that Moscow and Beijing should work together to safeguard their development and security interests and jointly promote reform of the international order “in a more just and equitable direction.” The remarks come just a day after Trump warned that unless Moscow agrees to a peace deal on Ukraine within 50 days, he would impose steep tariffs on Russia and any country doing business with it — including China. Xi highly assessed the state of bilateral relations and confirmed his commitment to further expanding the comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction with the Russian Federation, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry’s readout of the meeting. In his press conference after the SCO meeting, Lavrov listed China among Russia’s “allies.” In addition, Lavrov’s deputy Sergei Vershinin held consultations with Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China Miao Deyu to discuss Ukraine among other issues, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry’s readout of the meeting. (RM, 07.18.25, MT/AFP, 07.15.25)
• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi praised ties with Moscow as “strategically valuable” during talks in Beijing with Lavrov, following Lavrov’s visit to North Korea. The two sides vowed to deepen strategic cooperation and jointly respond to global instability. Discussions covered Ukraine, Korea, Iran, Gaza and U.S.-China-Russia dynamics. (Moscow Times/AFP, 07.14.25)

Missile defense:

• The Patriot's dominance was cemented in Ukraine, where it has been feted for taking out Russia's ballistic and hypersonic missiles. In recent months, though, more maneuverable Russian ballistic missiles have been able to avoid its radar, the Ukrainian official said. RTX, the Patriot's main contractor, said the system is continuously updated based on real-world engagements. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have separately said the Samp/T struggled to destroy ballistic missiles from the start. An Italian defense official said they had received "positive feedback" on the system from Kyiv. (Wall Street Journal, 07.17.25)

Nuclear arms:

• During a July 16 press conference, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told a Tass reporter, "Russia's nuclear doctrine remains in effect, and thus, all its provisions continue to apply." The response came after a reporter for the Russian state-owned news agency inquired about the status of the nuclear doctrine, which, among other measures, establishes that an "aggression" against Russia or its allies "by any non-nuclear state with the participation or support of a nuclear state is considered as their joint attack." (Newsweek, 07.16.25)
• The Trump administration’s FY 2026 defense budget proposes $87 billion for nuclear forces—a 26% increase over Biden’s last request. Major hikes include $10.3B for the B-21 bomber, $4.1B for Sentinel ICBMs, and $11.2B for Columbia-class subs. The sea-launched cruise missile program is revived, and overall nuclear and missile defense spending accelerates across the board. (Arms Control Today, 07.10.25) 

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• European authorities said they’ve disrupted the computer infrastructure of a pro-Russian hacktivist group that’s claimed responsibility for more than 1,000 denial-of-service attacks since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The law enforcement actions targeted a group calling itself NoName057(16) and consisted of a “day of action” on July 15 that involved the takedown of more than 100 servers worldwide used by the group to launch attacks. (Bloomberg, 07.16.25)
• European officials are wondering if the U.S. will resume support for Ukraine’s cybersecurity defenses as Trump shifted to a more confrontational stance toward Russia this week. The U.S. last year committed to providing Ukraine with $100 million to help fend off Russian cyberattacks, an amount that had been agreed upon under an international arrangement called the Tallinn Mechanism. That funding was put on hold following Trump’s inauguration pending a review of foreign aid. (Bloomberg, 07.16.25)
• The U.K. sanctioned 3 Russian GRU units and 18 officers for cyberattacks and destabilization efforts targeting Ukraine, the U.K., and others, including the 2022 Mariupol theater strike and hacking linked to the Skripal poisoning case The U.K. publicly attributed the malware AUTHENTIC ANTICS to Russia’s GRU Unit 26165 (APT 28), sanctioning 3 GRU units and 18 officers for global cyberespionage using stolen Microsoft cloud credentials. (UK NCSC, 07.18.25, Korrespondent.net, 07.18.25)
• Russia is moving to centralize control over mobile internet shutdowns in response to a surge in Ukrainian drone attacks, aiming to streamline the chaotic patchwork of regional blackout orders currently in place. The Digital Development Ministry is working with telecom providers to designate a single federal authority to manage such shutdowns. (Moscow Times/Agence France-Presse, 07.15.25)
• Major Russian airports will begin deploying AI-powered surveillance systems developed by Ntechlab, a facial recognition firm under Western sanctions. The tech can detect unauthorized access, crowding, and even passengers straying onto tarmacs. Ntechlab says it successfully tested the system at one Moscow airport and plans a broader rollout. The move follows recent Ukrainian drone strikes that disrupted air traffic. (Moscow Times/AFP, 07.14.25)

Energy exports from CIS:

• No significant developments.

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Russian customs officers arrested a Russian-American woman at a Moscow airport for allegedly attempting to smuggle a pistol into the country in her luggage, authorities said July 18. The Federal Customs Service said the dual citizen was traveling from the United States via Turkey when she was stopped at Vnukovo Airport during a random inspection in the airport’s “green corridor,” which is reserved for passengers who claim they have nothing to declare. (AFP, 07.18.25).
• An American named Daniel Richard Martindale, who claims to have supported Russian forces in Ukraine for two years, received Russian citizenship in a televised ceremony. Authorities say he helped capture Bohoiavlenka and Kurakhove and was later rescued due to safety concerns. (Moscow Times/Agence France Presse, 07.15.25)
• New documents reveal the CIA knowingly misled the public for decades about its awareness of Lee Harvey Oswald prior to JFK’s assassination. (Washington Post, 07.14.25)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia must add 10.9 million workers to its economy by 2030 to offset retirements and support new jobs, Labor Minister Anton Kotyakov told Putin. The forecast highlights deepening demographic and labor challenges, exacerbated by a record-low 2.2% unemployment rate and war-related manpower strains. Putin warned that population decline remains a critical threat to Russia’s future. (Bloomberg, 07.14.25)
• While the annual inflation rate remains at 9%, well above the central bank’s 4% target, current price growth now aligns with that goal after decelerating from the previous month, according to data from the Bank of Russia. That’s likely to raise expectations that further key-rate cuts may come sooner and possibly be deeper than initially thought. (Bloomberg, 07.17.25)
• Top executives at some of Russia’s biggest banks have privately discussed seeking a state-funded bailout if the level of bad loans on their books continues to worsen over the next year. (Bloomberg, 07.17.25)
  • VTB Bank, where non-performing loans from individuals in its retail portfolio reached 5% in May, said the figure could jump to 6–7% by 2026, just below the 8–10% seen during Russia’s last major banking crisis between 2014 and 2016. (MT/AFP, 07.17.25)
• Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov defended ongoing media censorship as necessary due to Russia’s geopolitical situation and information speed. He praised “patriotic” content and called for a “softer” future media policy while signaling continued control over the information space. ISW assesses the Kremlin is entrenching a state ideology built on nationalism and censorship to shape future generations. (ISW, 07.11.25)
• A Moscow military court sentenced exiled writer Boris Akunin (Grigory Chkhartishvili) to 14 years in prison in absentia for justifying and facilitating terrorism and violating “foreign agent” laws. Prosecutors cited his support for a “revolution” in Russia, remarks made to pranksters posing as Zelenskyy and Ukraine’s culture minister, and Telegram posts lacking required disclaimers. Akunin rejected the court’s legitimacy and mocked the ruling online. (Moscow Times/AFP, 07.14.25)
• The Russian State Duma’s Committee on State Building and Legislation has proposed an amendment that would introduce misdemeanor penalties for searching for banned content online, including through the use of VPN services, the human rights group Network Freedoms reported on July 15. (Meduza, 07.16.25)
  • A growing chorus of pro-Kremlin figures is speaking out against a proposed law that would impose fines for accessing or searching for online content labeled “extremist” by Russian authorities. (MT/AFP, 07.17.25)
• Russian lawmakers have approved legislation that dramatically simplifies the process for designating organizations as "extremist." The bill, passed in the lower-house State Duma in its third and final reading, allows authorities to classify an organization as extremist based solely on a single criminal conviction under Article 282.1 of the Criminal Code, which pertains to the organization of extremist activities, for any of its members. (MT/AFP, 07.16.25)
• The Russian State Duma has approved the third and final reading of a law that expands the list of grounds for revoking Russian citizenship acquired through naturalization, Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin announced on July 17. Previously, the law allowed for the revocation of naturalized citizenship based on 64 articles of the Criminal Code. The new legislation adds 17 more offenses to that list. (Meduza, 07.17.25)
• Russian prosecutors are seeking to designate bread producer Rizhsky Khleb as “extremist” and confiscate a 50% stake in the company, alleging its Latvian co-owner financed Ukraine’s military, the Kommersant business newspaper reported July 15, citing sources familiar with the matter. (MT/AFP, 07.16.25)
• Vigilante groups are increasingly taking control of Russia's streets and imposing their version of nationalist, pro-Kremlin order as police leave for higher salaries fighting in the war in Ukraine. Some towns and cities across the country are missing as many as half of their patrol and duty officers—and crime rates are rising. One of the largest groups to step into the void, Russkaya Obshchina, or Russian Community, has 150 chapters across Russia's 11 time zones. The group's ranks have swelled as veterans join after returning from the front. (Wall Street Journal, 07.17.25)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russia’s military intelligence agency has developed new pipelines for deploying mercenaries to Ukraine, according to an investigation by the Sistema project. Officials reportedly created the “Dobrocor” system by reorganizing the existing private military company Redut. Dobrocor began recruiting this spring, and Sistema journalists linked its operations to Russia’s Military Intelligence Directorate (GRU) and 27 mercenary units. (Meduza, 07.16.25)
• Russia may scrap its sole aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, after suspending its troubled refit, according to state-run Izvestia. (National Interest, 07.13.25)
• Russia’s Defense Ministry has quietly canceled this year’s Army-2025 military and technical forum. (MT/AFP, 07.16.25)

See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Police officers in southern Russia’s Rostov region are being reimbursed the amounts they are offered in bribes as part of what authorities describe as a new anti-corruption initiative, the region’s police chief said July 15. (MT/AFP, 07.15.25)
• Polish prosecutors concluded that businessman Leonid Nevzlin was behind the attack on Russian opposition figure Leonid Volkov in Lithuania, according to Rzeczpospolita. While Nevzlin is not among the 11 suspects, investigators believe lawyer Anatoly Blinov, the alleged mastermind, was “inspired” by him. (Meduza, 07.14.25)
• Russia has earmarked more than 3 billion rubles ($39.5 million) for underwater inspections of ships arriving at its Baltic Sea ports following a series of unexplained explosions affecting tankers, the state-owned company Rosmorport announced July 16. (MT/AFP, 07.17.25)

• Russian customs authorities said July 16 that they seized 820 kilograms (1,800 pounds) of cocaine hidden under a shipment of bananas, calling it their largest bust of drugs from Latin America this year. (MT/AFP, 07.16.25)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including  relations with “far abroad” countries:

• The flow of foreign currency into Russia is drying up as trade increasingly shifts to ruble payments, reflecting the impact of Western efforts to limit Russian cross-border transactions. More than half of Russian exports are paid for in rubles, according to Bank of Russia data published late July 16. The shift comes amid a roughly 6% drop in export volumes in the first five months of the year, driven by softer commodity prices. Combined, those trends are reducing foreign currency inflows into Russia’s economy at a time when access to global markets remains limited. (Bloomberg, 07.17.25)

Ukraine:

• In the first half of 2025, Ukraine registered 249,000 deaths and only 86,800 births — a ratio of nearly 3 to 1. (Korrespondent.net, 07.18.25)
• Zelenskyy delivered the biggest government shake-up since Russia’s full-scale invasion. Deputy Prime Minister and Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko was appointed as the new premier. Serhiy Marchenko and Andrii Sybiha continue their roles as finance minister and the country’s top diplomat. Former PM Denys Shmyhal is to remain in government as Ukraine's next defense minister. Zelenskyy appointed former Defense Minister Rustem Umerov as secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, bypassing expectations he’d become ambassador to the U.S. (Meduza, 07.18.25, Bloomberg, 07.17.25, Kyiv Independent, 07.17.25, ISW, 07.17.25) For an evolving list of "Who's who” in Ukraine's government after its first full wartime reshuffle, see this Kyiv Independent story.
  • Ukraine’s new prime minister, Yulia Svyrydenko, will prioritize foreign financing and ramp up domestic arms production amid a $40B shortfall. Zelenskyy aims for Ukraine to produce half its own battlefield needs within six months. The reshuffle also places the defense industry under incoming Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal (Bloomberg, 07.18.25).
• On July 16, Ukraine’s parliament backed a bill amending the 2025 budget to boost defense spending by 412 billion hryvnia ($10 billion) this year. The country faces a $40 billion shortfall to cover social spending, including next year’s salary and pension payments, for which it needs external financing. (Bloomberg, 07.17.25)
• Anti-corruption raids on prominent Ukrainian figures and moves to favor loyalists in senior positions have led to accusations that Zelenskyy’s government is sliding into authoritarianism. Zelenskyy and his top aides face allegations from politicians, activists and diplomats that they are using extraordinary powers granted under martial law to sideline critics, muzzle civil society leaders and consolidate control. (Financial Times, 07.17.25)
• Agriculture is a mainstay of Ukraine’s economy. Produce worth $24.5bn made up 59% of Ukraine’s exports last year. Its farmers harvested 76m tons of grain and oilseeds in 2024. In 2021, the last year before Russia’s full-scale invasion (and the resulting loss of territory), the figure was 106m tons. This year the weather has been poor. Vitaliy Koval, the minister of agriculture, warns that may cut the harvest by a further 10%. But he thinks higher global commodity prices will mean export income roughly matches last year’s. (The Economist, 07.13.25)
• A Ukrainian cell of the neo-Nazi group “The Base” has claimed responsibility for the July 10 assassination of Col. Ivan Voronych, a senior official in Ukraine’s domestic intelligence agency (SBU), according to The Guardian. (Meduza, 07.16.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Russia’s foreign intelligence agency (SVR) accused NATO of militarizing Moldova and preparing it for conflict with Russia, alleging the alliance is turning Moldova into a “forward base” through military instructors, upgraded infrastructure, and training centers. The SVR also claimed Moldovan President Maia Sandu is serving Western interests to help her party in upcoming elections. Moldova has previously accused Russia of election interference and destabilization efforts. (The Moscow Times, 07.14.25)
• The United States has proposed taking over the planned transport corridor between Armenia and Azerbaijan in an effort to advance long-stalled diplomatic negotiations between the two Caucasus nations, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey, Tom Barrack, told journalists during a briefing July 11. (Middle East Eye, 07.14.25)

IV. Quotable and notable

• “The definition of the Russian state is the presidency in Russia, and that’s where we’re headed in the United States,” Fiona Hill said. (New Yorker, 07.11.25)
• “No innovation has had a bigger impact on the war in Ukraine than first-person-view, or FPV, drones. With explosives strapped to them, FPVs fly directly into their targets, turning them into low-cost suicide bombers.” (Wall Street Journal, 07.13.25)

V. Useful data

When asked by Levada in June about the most acute problems faced by Russian society, respondents said:

Footnotes

1. This article appeared in the July 15, 2025, print edition of WSJ as “Ubiquity of Drones Has Frozen Front Lines in Ukraine.”
2. Two of the people briefed on the July 4 call between Trump and Zelenskyy and familiar with U.S.-Ukraine discussions on military strategy said that one weapon discussed was the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS. (Financial Times, 07.15.25)

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by John Hamilton/U.S. Army via AP, File.