5 Things to Know

1. After a pause in America’s arms deliveries to Ukraine, U.S. President Donald Trump announced July 7 the resumption of supplies, citing intensified Russian attacks and Ukraine’s urgent air defense needs. Trump said he had authorized primarily “defensive weapons,” which may include interceptor missiles for Patriot air defense systems. Trump's team will also identify arms from U.S. stockpiles to send to Ukraine under the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), sources told Reuters, with one saying the supplies could be worth $300 million. This is the first use of the PDA in the second presidency of Trump—who has this week begun to use sharp language to express his displeasure with Putin’s refusal to stop fighting, and who promised to make a "major statement" on Russia next week. In addition, Trump is “very strongly” considering supporting a Senate bill that would slap a 500% “bone-crushing” tariff on those countries that trade with the U.S. that also purchase Russian oil and uranium. Per Trump’s insistence, the current draft of the bill, which its co-sponsors expect to pass this month, allows the president to waive the tariff, according to Politico.
2. The past week saw Russia set two records in the number of aerial attack vehicles launched in single barrages at Ukraine. First, Russia launched a record of 550 such vehicles on July 4, including a record total of 539 Iran-designed drones as well as 11 cruise and ballistic missiles, according to Financial Times. Then on July 9, Russia launched 741 aerial attack vehicles, including 728 drones and 13 missiles, according to AFP.As Russia’s defense industry continues to ramp up, military analysts expect Russia to routinely launch more than 1,000 drones per volley by autumn, according to The New York Times.
3. In the past month (June 10–July 8, 2025), Russia gained 190 square miles of Ukrainian territory (an area slightly less than two Nantucket islands). That represents a slight decrease from the previous month’s (May 13–June 10, 2025) total of 223 square miles, according to the July 9, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card.
4. Of Ukrainian officials, current Ambassador to the U.K. and former Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, is the most trusted by Ukrainians, according to a poll conducted by Ukraine’s Rating Group on July 4-5. The poll, which allowed multiple answers, found that Zaluzhnyi—who enjoys the trust of 73% of Ukrainians—is followed by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (67%) and the head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov (56%), according to Ukrainska Pravda.
5. The EU is urgently exploring ways to cover a shortfall of up to $19 billion in Ukraine’s budget next year, according to Financial Times. This budget hole looms as one of Ukraine's main funding vehicles—a $50 billion loan from the U.S. and EU, backed by the interest from $300 billion in frozen Russian assets—is to run out by the end of 2025, according to Bloomberg Economics.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• No significant developments.

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov arrived in North Korea July 11 for a working visit that will last until July 13, Russian state media reported. Lavrov is visiting the newly developed coastal resort of Wonson, where North Korea hopes to build its tourism industry with Russian tourists. He is to meet his DPRK counterpart during the visit. (Kyiv Post, 07.11.25, AFP, 07.11.25)
• Russian companies are hiring Korean-language translators and cultural experts as thousands of North Korean laborers pour into Russia to fill construction and infrastructure jobs. (MT/AFP, 07.04.25)
• Russia will launch direct flights from Moscow to North Korea’s capital of Pyongyang later this month. (MT/AFP, 07.09.25)
• North Korea is now supplying as much as 40% of Russia’s ammunition for the war in Ukraine as the partnership between Pyongyang and Moscow deepens, according to the head of Ukrainian military intelligence. (Bloomberg, 07.11.25)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• "The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) must ensure the security of Iran’s nuclear facilities and resolve disputes through dialogue," Lavrov said in Malaysia on July 10, emphasizing that Iran—unlike Israel—is a signatory to the NPT and thus entitled to peaceful nuclear technology. (Tehran Times, 07.10.25)

• Russia has proposed removing enriched uranium from Iran and communicated the offer to Iranian authorities, the United States and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), though no practical steps have been taken to implement the plan, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said. (BNE, 07.11.25)
• Russia's Foreign Ministry announced July 9 that the Russian Embassy in Tehran had reopened to the public. (MT/AFP, 07.09.25)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 forced almost 10 million people to flee their homes, with about 3.8 million displaced within the country and 5.6 million abroad, but most of them want to stay close to their homes, the U.N. refugee agency’s representative for Ukraine said. (Washington Post, 07.11.25)

• Russia’s Defense Ministry said that it had carried out another prisoner exchange with Ukraine. Neither side disclosed the number of prisoners exchanged. (MT/AFP, 07.04.25)
• Dutch and German intelligence agencies said that they had gathered evidence of Russia’s growing use of chemical weapons in Ukraine and called for tougher sanctions against Moscow and continued military support for Kyiv. (MT/AFP, 07.04.25)
• The European Court of Human Rights has ruled that Russia was responsible for the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 over Donbas in 2014, which killed all 298 people on board. (Meduza, 07.09.25)
• During the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Rome: 
  • On July 10, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed top European officials. “We need a Marshall Plan-style approach,” he said. (New York Times, 07.10.25)
  • On July 10, Ursula Von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, announced the launch of a new equity fund to support Ukraine’s postwar reconstruction. The fund’s initial capital, about $250 million, is a tiny fraction of the amount of money needed to rebuild Ukraine. (New York Times, 07.10.25)
  • The Netherlands has allocated €300 million ($352 million) to support the reconstruction of Ukraine in 2025 and 2026, the Dutch foreign minister said during the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Rome July 10. (Bloomberg, 07.10.25)
• European capitals wrestle with ways to increase financial support to Kyiv as it seeks to plug a looming budget hole of up to $19bn. (Financial Times, 07.10.25)
• Public and private sector estimates of Ukraine's reconstruction needs vary widely but range from $500–750 billion to upwards of $1 trillion. (Bloomberg Economics, 07.09.25)
• One of Ukraine's main funding vehicles—a $50 billion loan from the U.S. and EU, backed by the interest from $300 billion in frozen Russian assets—will run out by the end of 2025. (Bloomberg Economics, 07.09.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the past month (June 10–July 8, 2025), Russia gained 190 square miles of Ukraine’s territory. (Area slightly less than two Nantucket islands). That represents a slight decrease from the previous month’s (May 13–June 10, 2025) total of 223 square miles, according to the July 9, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In the week preceding July 9, Russia gained 18 square miles—its lowest weekly advance since the 14 square miles it gained the week of April 22–29, 2025, according to the card. In Russia, Ukraine continued to maintain a foothold of 5 square miles total across Russia’s Kursk and Belgorod regions, the same as the previous three weeks, according to the card. (RM, 07.10.25)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin is brushing aside U.S. President Donald Trump’s professed disappointment in him and is pushing ahead in Ukraine with renewed intensity, having already priced in the possibility of new U.S. pressure, analysts and people close to the Kremlin said. The Russian leader is convinced that Russia’s battlefield superiority is growing, and that Ukraine’s defenses may collapse in the coming months, according to two people close to the Kremlin. Given Russia’s ongoing offensive, they say, Putin views it as out of the question to halt the fighting now without extensive concessions by Ukraine. (New York Times, 07.09.25)
• According to the Economist's calculations, the irretrievable losses of the Russian Armed Forces as of July 9, 2025, are in the range of 900,000 to 1.3 million people, including 190,000-350,000 KIAs. This means Russia pays with the life of one soldier for every 3.8 hectares of Ukrainian land. The pace of the Russian offensive is still such that the complete conquest of the Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhian regions, which the Russian Federation annexed in 2022, will be completed only by February 2029, and the capture of the entire territory of Ukraine will take the Russian Armed Forces 89 years, according to The Economist’s estimate. (The Economist via Meduza, 07.10.25)
• “Russia has likely sustained approximately 236,000 casualties (killed and wounded) in the Russia-Ukraine conflict so far in 2025, and 1,022,460 casualties since launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The average daily Russian casualties during June 2025 was approximately 1,080, and totaled 32,000 over the course of the month, according to Ukrainian General Staff reporting. (U.K. MOD X Account, 07.11.25)
• Three and a half years into the war, Ukraine is pivoting to international recruitment to tackle its manpower crisis. The front-line salaries of $3,000 a month before bonuses, perhaps ten times the average in poorer parts of South America, are a strong incentive. Ukraine’s recruitment rate is running at 27,000 a month, roughly 15,000 below Russia’s. And that does not take into account a worrying number of desertions during training. (The Economist, June 2025)

Friday, July 4, 2025

• On July 4, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces captured Novoukrainka and Zelenyi Kut. (RM, 07.10.25)

• On July 4, Russia attacked Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities with the largest number of drones and missiles launched in a single barrage so far in the war. In total, Russia fired 539 drones and 11 missiles overnight. The previous record came on June 29, with the air force reporting 537 aerial targets of all types in a single attack. Ukraine’s interior minister, Ihor Klymenko, said more than 20 people were injured in the capital, including a 10-year-old girl. (New York Times, 07.05.25, Financial Times, 07.04.25, ISW, 07.04.25)
  • Ukrainian foreign minister Andriy Sybiha said this week that Russia’s army had in June launched more than 330 missiles, including almost 80 ballistic missiles, as well as 5,000 combat drones and 5,000 gliding bombs. (Financial Times, 07.04.25)
  • U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres condemned on July 5 Russia's biggest drone and missile attack yet in the three-year war in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 07.06.25)
• Authorities in St. Petersburg have canceled Russia’s main naval parade this year due to security concerns, the local news outlet Fontanka reported July 2, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter. (MT/AFP, 07.04.25)

Saturday, July 5, 2025

• Ukraine’s General Staff said July 5 that Ukrainian forces had struck the Borisoglebsk airbase in Russia’s Voronezh region, describing it as the “home base” of Russia’s Su-34, Su-35S and Su-30SM fighter jets. (Boston Globe, 07.05.25)

Sunday, July 6, 2025

• On July 6, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces captured Lobkove and Piddubne. (RM, 07.10.25)
• On July 6, Russian forces were reported to have recently advanced northeast of Pokrovsk and may attempt to advance further toward Dobropillya as part of a mutually reinforcing effort to envelop Pokrovsk and bypass Ukraine's fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast from the west in the coming months. (ISW, 07.05.25)
• The Ukrainian Air Force reported on July 6 that Russian forces launched 157 Shahed and decoy drones. (ISW, 07.06.25)

Monday, July 7, 2025

• Russia’s Defense Ministry said its forces had taken control of the village of Dachne in the Dnipropetrovsk region. (MT/AFP, 07.07.25)
• Russian drones attacked the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, according to Gov. Oleh Syniehubov. Mayor Ihor Terekhov said at least 27 people were injured in the strikes. (Meduza, 07.07.25)
• Authorities in the Far East Kamchatka Peninsula introduced mobile internet restrictions on July 7 in an effort to prevent alleged Ukrainian sabotage. (MT/AFP, 07.07.25)

Tuesday, July 8, 2025

• Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev responded on July 8 to Trump's statements about resuming weapons supplies to Ukraine, claiming that Russia should continue "business as usual." (ISW, 07.08.25)

Wednesday, July 9, 2025

• On the night of July 8 to 9, Russian forces conducted the largest combined drone and missile strike of the war so far with 741 total drones and missiles—a 34% increase from the previous record high of 550 Russian drones and missiles launched on the night of July 3 to 4. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 728 Shahed-type strike and decoy drones. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched seven Kh-101/Iskander-K cruise missiles, and six Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles from Lipetsk Oblast airspace. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 718 of the drones and missiles, including seven Kh-101/Iskander-K missiles shot down, 296 Shahed-type drones shot down and 415 drones “lost.” The western city of Lutsk was a major target of the attack, though damage was reported across several regions including Kyiv and Dnipro in central Ukraine and Kharkiv in the east. (ISW, 07.09.25, Bloomberg, 07.09.25)
  • Russian long-range drones have hit five military draft offices across Ukraine in the past two weeks, in what Kyiv describes as an attempt by Moscow to disrupt the mobilization of troops to fight the Kremlin’s invasion. (Financial Times, 07.09.25)
  • As Russia’s industry continues to gear up, military analysts say they expect Russia to routinely launch more than 1,000 drones per volley by autumn. (New York Times, 07.09.25)
  • Ukrainian electronic and radio warfare expert Serhiy "Flash" Beskrestnov estimated on June 20 that Russia has increased Shahed production sevenfold and forecasted that Russian strike packages may soon incorporate up to 800 Shaheds. (ISW, 07.09.25)
• A Ukrainian drone attack killed four people, including a five-year-old boy, in the city of Kursk near the border with Ukraine, regional officials said. A National Guard soldier wounded in the attack did not survive. (MT/AFP, 07.09.25)
• Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said July 9 that its agents shot and killed a man who allegedly planned to blow up a railroad bridge in the southern Saratov region. (MT/AFP, 07.09.25)

Thursday, July 10, 2025

• On July 10, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces captured the settlement of Yalta. (RM, 07.10.25)
• Russian drones and missiles pummeled Ukraine overnight. The attack lasted nearly 10 hours and involved about 400 attack drones and 18 missiles, according to Zelenskyy. The main target of the attack was Kyiv and the surrounding region, he said. Minister of internal affairs Ihor Klymenko said at least two people were killed in Kyiv. (Financial Times, 07.10.25)
  • Asked about the July 9-10 Russian attacks on Kyiv, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that loss of life was something of great interest to Trump, adding that Russia had seen 100,000 soldiers killed since the start of the year and that Ukraine had seen a smaller, although still significant, amount of dead. “The president doesn't like wars. He thinks wars are a waste of money and a waste of lives, and he wants them to end," he said. (Washington Post, 07.10.25)
• Ukrainian shelling of a town in the southwestern Belgorod region on July 10 morning killed two people, local authorities said. A woman was killed instantly in the attack on Shebekino, located near the border with Ukraine, while a man later died at the hospital after being badly wounded. (MT/AFP, 07.10.25)
• Col. Ivan Voronych of Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) was found shot dead July 10 in Kyiv’s Holosiivskyi district. The assailant reportedly fired five times before fleeing. Voronych was known for helping form an SBU unit targeting Russia. An investigation is underway. (Meduza, 07.10.25)
• Putin awarded the title of "Hero of Russia" to Lt. Gen. Sukhrab Akhmedov, currently commanding troops in Kursk. Russian soldiers accuse him of reckless leadership and heavy losses, including the deaths of 100 troops in a 2023 HIMARS strike. Blogger Roman Alekhine says Akhmedov buried officers in bureaucracy and misled the Kremlin. (Istories, 07.10.25)
• A Russian appellate court has jailed a 55-year-old trucker on suspicion of aiding the Ukrainian military in drone attacks on June 1 against several major Russian Air Force bases. Court records reviewed by Mediazona show that Mikhail Ryumin was arrested on June 2, one day after the attacks that Ukrainian officials dubbed “Operation Spiderweb.” (Meduza, 07.10.25)

Friday, July 11, 2025

• Russian air defense systems destroyed 155 Ukrainian drones in an overnight barrage, the Russian Defense Ministry said July 11, as regional officials reported at least three people killed in attacks. (MT/AFP, 07.11.25)
• Russian forces launched an overnight drone strike on Ukraine’s Kharkiv, targeting the city’s Saltivka neighborhood, according to Gov. Oleh Syniehubov. (Meduza, 07.11.25)
• Sergey Ilyin, commander of Russia’s 155th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade, has been killed in the war. According to pro-war Telegram channels, Ilyin died on July 2 during a Ukrainian strike on Russia’s Kursk region. The Telegram channel Astra reported that Mikhail Gudkov, the deputy commander-in-chief of the Russian Navy, was also killed in the same attack. Ukrainian authorities have previously accused soldiers from the 155th Brigade of committing war crimes. (Meduza, 07.11.25)
• The Russian army lost 118 thousand people killed and missing in the war with Ukraine, according to the calculations of “Important Stories.” (Istories, 07.11.25)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

Friday, July 4, 2025

• Trump and Zelenskyy have discussed Ukraine’s air defense needs in the face of escalating Russian strikes in a call that appeared to mark a further warming of relations. Zelenskyy said he and Trump discussed the wartime situation, “including Russian air strikes and the broader frontline developments” following what Ukraine’s air force said was the largest aerial assault since Russia began its full-scale invasion Trump said he that he had had a “good call” with Zelenskyy and that the U.S. would “continue to help” Kyiv. "A decent agreement is needed for peace, and Ukraine supports American proposals," Zelenskyy said. (Financial Times, 07.04.25, Washington Post, 07.04.25)
• Germany is in advanced talks with the U.S. to secure at least two additional Patriot air-defense systems for Ukraine as Russia steps up its drone and missile attacks and Washington places a hold on weapons deliveries this week. (Bloomberg, 07.04.25)

Saturday, July 5, 2025

• Zelenskyy hailed new agreements with allies that he said would provide “hundreds of thousands” of new drones to the fight against Russia. In his nightly video address, Zelenskyy on July 5 said separate agreements with a U.S. firm and European allies -- including Denmark and Sweden -- would give Ukraine the ability to hit important targets inside Russia (RFE/RL, 07.06.25)

Monday, July 7, 2025

• Trump announced July 7 that the United States would resume weapons deliveries to Ukraine. “We're going to send some more weapons. We have to," Trump told reporters at the White House. The shipment will include "defensive weapons, primarily," Trump said “They have to be able to defend themselves. They're getting hit very hard now,” he said. Trump stated that the United States is "going to see if [it] can make some [Patriot interceptors] available." Putin "is not treating human beings right," Trump said. (ISW, 07.08.25, RFE/RL, 07.08.25, Wall Street Journal, 07.07.25, Washington Post, 07.07.25)
  • In a statement late July 7, Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said: “At President Trump’s direction, the Department of Defense is sending additional defensive weapons to Ukraine to ensure the Ukrainians can defend themselves while we work to secure a lasting peace and ensure the killing stops.” (Wall Street Journal, 07.07.25)
  • Ukrainians on July 8 welcomed Trump’s announcement that he would send additional weapons to fend off Russian attacks. (New York Times, 07.08.25)
    • For months, Russia has courted Trump, deploying flattery, promises of economic cooperation and protestations of its desire for peace in an effort to splinter Western support for Ukraine—all while intensifying its assault on its smaller neighbor. The approach appears to be faltering. (The Economist, 07.08.25, Wall Street Journal, 07.09.25)

Tuesday, July 8, 2025

• On July 8, Trump reiterated his displeasure with Putin over the war in Ukraine and confirmed he’s sending more defensive weapons to Zelenskyy’s government, sweeping aside an earlier pause by the Pentagon. “He’s killing too many people so we’re sending some defensive weapons to Ukraine and I’ve approved it,” Trump told reporters. (Bloomberg, 07.09.25)
  • Two U.S. officials said on July 8 that Trump is considering sending Ukraine an additional Patriot air-defense system, which would mark the first time Trump has approved a major weapons system for Kyiv that the Biden White House hadn't already authorized. (Wall Street Journal, 07.09.25)
  • Senior U.S. Defense Department leaders decided last month to pause delivery of some air defense interceptors and precision-guided bombs and missiles to Ukraine, citing concerns that the U.S. weapons stocks were running low. But the pause on sending some munitions to Ukraine was incidental, and not the purpose of the review, according to the two people. It was still unclear precisely who at the Pentagon and at the White House had been involved in the decision. (New York Times, 07.08.25)
• The European Union is considering setting up a €100 billion ($117 billion) fund to support Ukraine as its war with Russia following Moscow’s full-scale invasion shows no signs of ending. The money may become part of the EU’s proposal for its next seven-year budget. (Bloomberg, 07.08.25)

Wednesday, July 9, 2025

• "We're looking at Ukraine right now and munitions," Trump told reporters July 9 ahead of a White House lunch with African leaders. A senior White House official said July 9 that the president had now agreed to some Ukrainian requests for military aid based on a detailed list that Zelenskyy handed him last month when they met in The Hague. (Washington Post, 07.10.25)
  • The White House has asked the Pentagon for options for sending Ukraine additional weapons, including a Patriot system, one of the officials said. Officials are also exploring if other countries can provide more Patriots to Kyiv, the official said. The U.S. has provided Kyiv with three Patriot systems, Germany sent another three, and a consortium of European countries sent one, according to a former Pentagon official, but not all are up and running at the same time due to maintenance issues. (Wall Street Journal, 07.08.25)
• Several Pentagon officials said it was not clear July 9, more than a week after the pause was first reported, whether any aid was actually withheld, and for how long. Two defense officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said it seemed possible that military leaders somewhere in the chain of command may have delayed sending some kinds of munitions until they had clarity on what senior administration officials wanted. (Washington Post, 07.10.25)
• The U.S. Army plans to spend more than $1.3 billion on Patriot missiles for the fiscal year beginning Oct. 1 and has quietly quadrupled its overall purchase target for the air defense weapon that has proven critical not just for Ukraine but also for U.S. forces in the Middle East. (Bloomberg, 07.09.25)
• According to the results of a July poll, the majority of Ukrainians (64%) expect that the U.S. will fully or partially continue to support Ukraine with weapons. (Pravda.ua, 07.09.25)

Thursday, July 10, 2025

• The United States is sending weapons to Ukraine through NATO, Trump said July 10, a week after the Pentagon said some weapons deliveries to the war-torn country were being paused. Trump also said he would make a "major statement" on Russia on July 14. “I’m disappointed in Russia, but we’ll see what happens over the next couple of weeks . . . I think I’ll have a major statement to make on Russia on Monday,” Trump said. He did not elaborate on what the statement would be but provided an explanation about the supply of U.S. weapons. "We're sending weapons to NATO, and NATO is paying for those weapons, 100%. So what we’re doing is the weapons that are going out are going to NATO, and then NATO is going to be giving those weapons (to Ukraine), and NATO is paying for those weapons," Trump said. (RFE/RL, 07.11.25, Financial Times, 07.11.25, AP, 07.11.25)
  • A German government spokesman said July 11 that “close consultations” were taking place with the U.S. on the issue, while declining to give further details. German defense minister Boris Pistorius will also raise the matter with his U.S. counterpart Pete Hegseth on a visit to Washington on July 14. (Financial Times, 07.11.25)
• The United States has resumed deliveries of certain weapons to Ukraine, Reuters and the Associated Press reported, citing unnamed sources. According to the reports, the shipments include 155-millimeter artillery shells and precision-guided GMLRS rockets, which are used with HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems. Reuters noted that it remains unclear why the deliveries were limited to munitions and rockets, or whether other types of weaponry will follow. (Meduza, 07.10.25)
• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington is trying to convince NATO allies to transfer Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine. Though several European countries possess the systems, none have agreed to provide them. Rubio urged partners to act on their stated commitment to Ukraine. (RBC.ua, 07.10.25)
• Zelenskyy said a meeting with U.S. and European allies in Rome stoked optimism that Trump’s administration will ramp up military aid to the war-battered country, including air defense. The meeting of the so-called coalition of the willing included a senior Trump envoy. The Ukrainian leader said he’d had a “positive dialog” with the U.S. president over the delivery of Patriot air-defense batteries. “It’s crucial that — following our constructive and very positive conversations with President Trump — we have all necessary political signals on the resumption of aid shipments,” Zelenskyy told reporters in the Italian capital July 10. “Now we are working at staff level to ensure timely deliveries to Ukraine.” (Bloomberg, 07.10.25)
• Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silina signaled that Ukraine will receive a delivery of the U.S.-made Patriot air defense systems as the country comes under increasingly relentless Russian drone and missile strikes. “There is a commitment to help Ukraine with new Patriot systems,” the premier said. (Bloomberg, 07.10.25)

Friday, July 11, 2025

• Trump is planning to send a new weapons transfer to Ukraine using Presidential Drawdown Authority—marking the first such move since he returned to the White House, according to Reuters. One of the sources told Reuters that the upcoming military aid package could total around $300 million worth of weapons and may include Patriot missiles and medium-range rockets. (Meduza, 07.11.25)

• The Senate Armed Services Committee approved a $500 million defense assistance package for Ukraine amid escalating tensions with Russia.  On July 9, the committee voted for the fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), a yearly bill to fund the Department of Defense (DOD). In a 26-1 vote, the committee extended the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative through 2028, adding $200 million for 2026. (The Hill, 07.11.25)

• "We have political signals at the highest level - good signals, in particular from the United States of America, from our European friends. According to all reports, supplies have been restored," Zelenskyy said July 11. (RBC.ua, 07.11.25)
• Ghana is ready to contribute to the financing of Ukrainian drones, Zelenskyy announced following his conversation with Ghana's President Mahama. (Status-6 X Account, 07.11.25)
• In his address, Zelenskyy confirmed that the weapons deliveries from the U.S. to Ukraine have resumed: "We will continue to work next week with the American side at the military level, in particular our military personnel with Gen. Kellogg. We are also preparing new European defense packages," Zelenskyy added.” (Status-6 X Account, 07.11.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• On July 4, Trump said that Putin understands that more sanctions “may be coming,” as Moscow continues to reject Washington’s push for a cease-fire in Ukraine. Speaking on Air Force One on July 4, Trump said: “You know, we talk about sanctions a lot and he understands that it may be coming.” Trump's comments reflected the failure, so far, to broker a cease-fire in the conflict and his apparent dissatisfaction with the Russian leader. (RFE/RL, 07.05.25)
• On July 8, Trump said he was “very strongly” considering supporting a punishing sanctions bill to bring Russia to heel. The president’s interest in the legislation came as Senate Majority Leader John Thune stressed there is “a lot of interest” in the legislation among senators, too, and teased that he could bring the legislation to the floor. Leaders of Germany, France, Britain and Italy have publicly told Trump that new U.S. sanctions could force Putin to enter serious negotiations about ending the war. (New York Times, 07.10.25)
• On July 10, Trump said he plans to make a “major statement” on Russia on July 14. He also said he expects the Senate to pass a tougher Russia sanctions bill sponsored by Sens. Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, and Richard Blumenthal, Democrat of Connecticut. The bill has 83 supporters in the Senate. Trump reiterated criticism of Putin over Russia’s continued attacks on Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 07.10.25, New York Times, 07.10.25)
  • On Capitol Hill, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) said July 9 that they will try to pass legislation this month that would give Trump the ability to impose sanctions on buyers of Russia's energy exports. (Washington Post, 07.10.25)
  • A White House official told Axios Trump won't sign it unless it grants him "100% flexibility" to implement and withdraw the sanctions as he sees fit. (Axios, 07.11.25)
  • Senate Majority Leader John Thune said July 9 he expects a vote as soon as this month to place severe new sanctions on Russia. “Senate Republicans are committed to working with the House and the White House to get this legislation through Congress and on to the president’s desk,” Thune said. (Bloomberg, 07.09.25)

  • Zelenskyy met with Sen. Lindsey Graham and Sen. Richard Blumenthal at the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Rome. (UPI, 07.11.25)

  • Putin has been prepared for Trump’s patience to snap, according to the two people close to the Kremlin. He has understood, they said, that Trump could eventually implement new sanctions, after six months in which the administration has issued no new sanctions against Russia related to its invasion of Ukraine. (New York Times, 07.09.25)
  • Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, accused the U.S. senators shepherding the bill of trying to undermine the basis for normal interaction between the United States and Russia, saying that they were taking steps that would be “harmful to the U.S. itself.” He said Russia would need to analyze and understand the effects of any new potential sanctions legislation, but given that 30,000 restrictive measures have already been implemented against Russia, it “will not change the picture radically.” (New York Times, 07.10.25)

• "You'll be seeing things happen," Trump told reporters on July 11 when asked about Russia's overnight drone attacks on Ukraine's second largest city, Kharkiv, that damaged a maternity hospital. (USA Today, 07.11.25)

• On July 11, European Union ambassadors once again failed to reach an agreement on the 18th package of sanctions against Russia due to resistance from Slovakia. Further consultations on this matter are scheduled for the weekend. (Mezha.net, 07.11.25)

  • The European Union is preparing to impose its “toughest sanctions” against Russia since the start of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to France’s top diplomat. Foreign Affairs Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said on July 7 that E.U. sanctions would be introduced based on French proposals in coordination with U.S. congressmen. The new restrictions will “directly deplete the resources that allow Vladimir Putin to wage his war” and will affect Russia's oil revenues as well as the interests of “financial players from Russia and other countries.” “We want Vladimir Putin, at last, to agree to a ceasefire,” Barrot emphasized. (Meduza, 07.07.25)
• Russia has decided to revoke its consent for the functioning of the Polish Consulate General in Kaliningrad. (Ukrainska Pravda, 07.11.25)
• Authorities in Moscow on July 8 designated Yale University as an “undesirable” organization, accusing the U.S. institution of trying to destabilize the country and training Russian activists to oppose the Kremlin. (MT/AFP, 07.08.25)
• Sberbank CEO German Gref's daughter Maria renounced her Russian sports citizenship at the end of June and received neutral status from the International Equestrian Federation (FEI), Mozhet Obymenyat reports, citing the FEI. To receive it, Maria Gref signed a declaration that she does not support the war against Ukraine. (Istories, 07.11.25)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Thursday, July 3, 2025

• Trump spoke by phone on July 3 with Putin about the war in Ukraine but made no headway on halting the fighting. "I'm very disappointed with the conversation I had today with President Putin because I don't think he's there, " Trump said. "I'm just saying, I don't think he's looking to stop, and that's too bad." On July 3, Trump reiterated his frustration with Putin. “I told you I was very unhappy with my call with President Putin,” Trump said. “It seems that he wants to go all the way, just keep killing people. It’s no good.” (Wall Street Journal, 07.05.25)
• Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev on July 8 dismissed Trump’s shifting rhetoric on Russia and arms shipments to Ukraine, saying Moscow would continue pursuing its military goals regardless of Washington’s policies. “We’ll keep pursuing the goals of the special military operation. We’ll take back our land. We’ll work toward victory,” he added. Trump told reporters earlier that he and Putin were no closer to striking a deal to end Russia’s invasion. “I didn’t make any progress with him today at all,” Trump said of Putin, adding that they did discuss “a lot of things, including Iran.” (Financial Times, 07.04.25, MT/AFP, 07.08.25)

Monday, July 7, 2025

• Lavrov reiterated the Kremlin's rejection of a ceasefire and unchanged demands, including demilitarization and regime change in Ukraine. Lavrov gave an interview to Hungarian outlet Magyar Nemzet published on July 7 and claimed that a settlement to the war must eliminate the "root causes" of the war, which Lavrov again defined as NATO's expansion and Ukraine's alleged discrimination against Russian-speakers. Moscow will not agree to a ceasefire with Ukraine unless sweeping sanctions against Russia are lifted and Western countries return hundreds of billions of dollars in frozen Russian assets, Lavrov said. “Anti-Russian sanctions must be lifted, all legal claims against Russia dropped and assets seized in the West returned,” Lavrov said in an interview with Nemzet. (MT/AFP, 07.07.25, ISW, 07.07.25)

Tuesday, July 8, 2025

• Trump accused Putin on July 8 of talking "bulls***" about Ukraine, saying that the United States would send Kyiv more weapons to defend itself. Trump's expletive reflected his growing frustration with the Kremlin leader over the grinding war that Moscow launched nearly three and a half years ago. "We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth," Trump told reporters during a televised cabinet meeting at the White House. "He's very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless." Trump reiterated that he was "very unhappy" with Putin since their phone call last week made no progress on the Ukraine peace deal that the U.S. president has pushed for since returning to power. (MT/AFP, 07.08.25)
  • The Kremlin said July 9 it was unfazed by Trump’s accusations. “We’re fairly calm about it. First of all, let’s just say that Trump in general talks tough, in terms of the expressions he uses,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. “We also heard Trump’s very important statement that the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict turned out to be much more difficult than he thought from the very beginning. This is what we’ve been talking about all along, that it can’t be solved overnight,” Peskov said. “There’s no disagreement,” he added, saying Trump’s peace efforts are confronting “the very complexity of the problem.” (MT/AFP, 07.09.25)

  • Deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Channel Dmitry Medvedev wrote on his Telegram channel in reference to Trump: “The American is riding his favorite political swings again. ... How should we feel about this? The same way as before. The way our soldiers do it. The way the Supreme Commander-in-Chief does it. Continue to achieve the goals of the SVO.” (Medvedev’s Telegram account, 07.08.25)

Thursday, July 10, 2025

• On July 10, Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Lavrov on the sidelines of the Southeast Asian nations (ASEAN) summit in Kuala Lumpur. Rubio expressed "both disappointment and frustration at the lack of progress in peace talks." Rubio suggested, however, that talks would continue and the two sides had discussed a "new and a different approach" he would take back to the president for consideration. Rubio stated that he and Lavrov shared ideas about "a new or different approach" from Russia and that there must be a "roadmap moving forward" about how the war can end. The Russian and American top diplomats held a “frank exchange” during talks in Malaysia on July 10, Moscow said. The Russian MFA's readout concluded that the United States and Russia will continue dialogue about a "growing range of issues of mutual interest." Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov claimed on July 10 there has been no "slowdown in progress" in developing U.S.-Russian relations. (MT/AFP, 07.10.25, Washington Post, 07.10.25, ISW, 07.10.25)
• Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said July 10 that Russia hopes to achieve its goals — which include control over 20 percent of the country and its demilitarization — through diplomatic means, "but until that happens, the special military operation continues, and realities on the ground are changing every day." (Washington Post, 07.10.25)

Friday, July 11, 2025

• A ceasefire between Ukraine and the Russian Federation must be achieved as soon as possible. This was stated by the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, Kirill Budanov. "Is it realistic to do this? Yes. Is it difficult? No. At least three parties are needed for this - Ukraine, Russia and the United States. And we will reach this position," he said. (RBC.ua, 07.11.25)

• The Kremlin on 11 July dismissed French President Emmanuel Macron's proposal to send Western peacekeepers to Ukraine following a potential ceasefire, calling the presence of foreign troops near Russia's borders "unacceptable." Adding to the tension, French army chief Gen. Thierry Burkhard stated on July 11 that Russia now sees France as its "main enemy in Europe." (The Caradleio, 07.11.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

Sunday, July 6, 2025

• BRICS countries once again failed to make significant strides in the cross-border payments system for trade and investment they’ve been discussing for a decade. In a statement released as they kicked off their meeting in Brazil Sunday, leaders committed to additional talks on the potential for greater trade integration of the 10-nation bloc.” (Bloomberg, 07.06.25)

Monday, July 7, 2025

• President Trump's threat to put new tariffs on countries embracing the policies of the Brics group has added fresh uncertainty to global trade and prompted pushback from Moscow and Beijing. Trump posted on social media that countries aligning themselves with "the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff." The threat appeared to be a response to a statement put out by the group of emerging economies—whose members include Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and others—that took a swipe at Trump's policies. (Wall Street Journal, 07.07.25)

Tuesday, July 8, 2025

• Europe’s largest port is gearing up for a potential conflict with Russia by reserving space for ships carrying military supplies and planning where to divert cargo if war breaks out. Boudewijn Siemons, chief executive of the Port of Rotterdam Authority, said it was coordinating with neighbor Antwerp on how to manage if British, U.S. and Canadian vehicles and supplies arrived. (Financial Times, 07.08.25)
• Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil justified Germany’s massive ramp-up in military spending by arguing it’s essential to face down the threat from Vladimir Putin’s Russia and prevent German children ever having to experience war. (Bloomberg, 07.08.25)
  • Germany is considering purchasing up to 2,500 armored fighting vehicles and as many as 1,000 battle tanks as part of a joint European effort to create new NATO brigades to deter Russia, according to people familiar with the matter. (Bloomberg, 07.04.25)

Wednesday, July 9, 2025

• At a closed-door fundraiser in 2024, Donald Trump claimed he had threatened to “bomb the shit out of Moscow” if Russian President Vladimir Putin launched an attack on Ukraine, CNN reported. The outlet released audio recordings from several Trump campaign fundraising events. “With Putin I said, ‘If you go into Ukraine, I’m going to bomb the shit out of Moscow. I’m telling you I have no choice,’” Trump is heard saying in one recording. According to Trump, Putin responded that he didn’t believe him. Trump added that he thought Putin believed him “10%.” (Meduza, 07.09.25)

Thursday, July 10, 2025

• U.S. military officials are increasingly alarmed by evolving drone threats, as Ukraine and Israel demonstrate how low-cost, smuggled drones can strike deep behind enemy lines. Ukraine’s Operation Spider’s Web and Israel’s attack on Iran highlighted gaps in U.S. defenses. The Pentagon is investing in technologies like high-powered microwaves, but critics warn it’s not adapting fast enough. (New York Times, 07.10.25)

Friday, July 11, 2025

• NATO will need more long-range missiles in its arsenal to deter Russia from attacking Europe because Moscow is expected to increase production of long-range weapons, a U.S. Army general told Reuters. "The Russian army is bigger today than it was when they started the war in Ukraine," Maj. Gen. John Rafferty said in an interview at a U.S. military base in Wiesbaden, Germany. "And we know that they're going to continue to invest in long-range rockets and missiles and sophisticated air defenses. So more alliance capability is really, really important." (Reuters, 07.11.25)

• Paranoia pervades the placid border town of Kirkenes in Norway's far north. Residents are routinely trailed by unknown men. The Wall Street Journal's camera crew was photographed and followed around town by a suspicious vehicle with no license plate. Most locals warn you to keep your wits about you because, as one said in a hushed tone, "the Russians are watching." (Wall Street Journal, 07.11.25)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• China is ready to move forward with top-level agreements reached with Russia, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. "Intensive contacts between our leaders play a leading role in ensuring the sustainable development of Sino-Russian relations, despite unprecedented global upheavals. I am ready with you, my dear friend, to make every effort to implement the entire array of agreements at the highest level with a view to strengthening strategic cooperation and protecting interests in the field of security and development," said the Chinese foreign minister. (TASS, 07.10.25)
• Western calls to maintain the status quo on Taiwan are blatantly hypocritical, such claims are transparently false to anyone even half familiar with the issue, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said during his press conference following meetings within the framework of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Kuala Lumpur. (TASS, 07.11.25)
• Ongoing Russian cooperation with Chinese companies is facilitating Russia's increasing domestic drone production. Documents analyzed by Bloomberg, including memos from Russian drone manufacturer Aero-HIT and unspecified Russian officials between late 2022 and June 2025, indicate that the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) has cooperated with Chinese companies to increase Russia's drone manufacturing capacity and subvert Western sanctions for drone components since the start of Russia’s war against Ukraine in February 2022. (ISW, 07.08.25)
• Soon after President Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale war on Ukraine, a little-known Russian company thousands of miles away hatched a plan to partner with Chinese firms and solve one of the most urgent challenges faced by the invading army—the need for combat drones that were radically reshaping the battlefield. Documents reviewed by Bloomberg —offer unprecedented insight into how Moscow capitalized on its friendly ties with Beijing to skirt Western sanctions. (Bloomberg, 07.08.25)
• President Donald Trump could soon meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said after his first encounter July 11 with his Chinese counterpart despite the contentious relations between the two superpowers. (Washington Post, 07.11.25)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• The U.K. and France have pledged for the first time to co-ordinate the use of their nuclear weapons, saying they would jointly respond to protect Europe from any “extreme threat”. The announcement by Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron, during a state visit by the French president to Britain, marks a significant step-up in co-operation between Europe’s two nuclear powers as they seek to respond to a growing threat from Russia. The U.K. government on July 9 said the agreement with France meant “for the first time that the respective deterrents of both countries are independent but can be coordinated.” (Financial Times, 07.09.25)
  • Russia will take onto account in its military planning the UK-France nuclear cooperation agreement, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said on July 10. (Sputnik, 07.10.25)[1]

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• “There are 2,000 Dagestani women without children in the Al-Hawl and Roj camps, which are under Kurdish control in Syria,” said L., a Dagestani woman recently rescued from Al-Hawl, a sprawling detention facility in northeastern Syria. While IS still exists in some form, the self-proclaimed state collapsed in late 2019 after the battle of Baghuz Fawqani. In the aftermath, wives, sisters and children of ISIS fighters, many of whom are foreign nationals, were sent to Kurdish-controlled camps in northeastern Syria. (MT/AFP, 07.10.25)

Cyber security/AI: 

• A court in Paris has jailed Russian basketball player Daniil Kasatkin on suspicion of involvement in a hacker group’s extortion activities. The 26-year-old was arrested on June 21 at Charles de Gaulle airport at the request of the United States, which has charged him with conspiracy to commit computer fraud. (Meduza, 07.10.25)
• Russia and Belarus are planning to jointly develop an artificial intelligence system grounded in what officials describe as “traditional values,” Belarusian state news agency BelTA reported July 11. “The aim is to develop a sovereign AI system that can be trusted, relied upon, and that provides objective information,” said Sergei Glazyev, secretary of the supranational Union State bloc to which Russia and Belarus belong. (MT/AFP, 07.11.25)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Russia’s oil data show crude output was below its OPEC+ target in June, according to people familiar with the figures. Russian producers pumped 9.022 million barrels a day last month, the people said, asking not to be identified because the information isn’t public.. (Bloomberg, 07.07.25)
  • Eight members of the OPEC Plus oil producers group said on July 5 that they would pump an additional 548,000 barrels a day starting in August, an increase that was higher than some analysts expected and could contribute to lowering prices. The increase, which is equivalent to roughly half a percent of global production, is a step up from recent months when the group announced increases of 411,000 barrels a day.” (New York Times, 07.05.25)
• Russia’s crude shipments fell to the lowest since February as refinery runs are rising faster than production, eating into exports. Seaborne crude cargoes averaged 3.12 million barrels a day in the four weeks to July 6, down by 3% from the period to June 29, tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show. (Bloomberg, 07.08.25)
  • Russia’s deteriorating crude and oil product exports cast doubt on the nation’s ability to support its production capacity, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly report. Last month, Russia’s daily crude loadings were stable at 4.68 million barrels, while daily exports of products fell 110,000 barrels to 2.55 million barrels, the IEA said. (Bloomberg, 07.11.25)
• Europe will be able to withstand the proposed ban on Russian gas imports by the European Commission from 2028, the head of TotalEnergies SE said, pointing to the development of new liquefied natural gas export capacities in the U.S. and Qatar. “Although Russia is no longer the bloc’s biggest gas supplier, it still covers almost 20% of European demand. (Bloomberg, 07.05.25)
• Russia’s coal industry has slipped into crisis under the weight of high borrowing costs and sanctions as slowing demand in China compounds with falling prices to expose deeper cracks in the economy. Only half of Russia’s coal companies remained profitable in 2024, according to the Federal Statistics Service, and the situation is continuing to deteriorate. (Bloomberg, 07.11.25)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said that a new round of negotiations with the United States on bilateral issues might be held before the end of summer. (Economic Times, 07.11.25)
• The Hare family, devout Christians who ran a farm in Texas, describe themselves as a family of "moral migrants" and have emerged as the face of a small but growing trend of Westerners relocating to Russia in search of the traditional, conservative values they feel are eroding in the liberal West. Their journey reflects the ideological narrative Putin has spent years crafting: Russia as the guardian of family-centered traditions amid a Western world spiraling into moral and social decay. (Washington Post, 07.07.25)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Asset seizures are surging in Russia, further clouding the outlook for the country’s slowing economy even as they help shore up increasingly depleted state coffers. The total value of confiscated property since 2022 has reached 3.9 trillion rubles ($49.5 billion), according to estimates from lawyers at the firm Nektorov, Saveliev & Partners in Moscow, which specializes in corporate law and has closely followed these cases. (Bloomberg, 07.09.25)
  • A court in the Chelyabinsk region on July 11 ordered the nationalization of Yuzhuralzoloto, Russia’s third-largest gold producer, marking the government’s latest wartime seizure of major private assets. The Prosecutor General’s Office filed a lawsuit on July 2 to seize the Yuzhuralzoloto Group of Companies (YUGK) and 10 affiliated firms from billionaire and regional lawmaker Konstantin Strukov. (MT/AFP, 07.11.25)
• In a press release on July 3, the Association of European Businesses revised its forecast for the Russian car market in 2025, projecting sales to decrease by 24% to 1.25 million units sold. The association had previously anticipated a contraction of 15% to 1.4 million vehicles in 2025. (MT/AFP, 07.04.25)
• Russian air travelers faced major disruption over the past three days as carriers canceled, rescheduled and rerouted flights due to the threat from Ukrainian drones. Airlines canceled 485 flights and delayed 1,900 others from Saturday through July 7 morning, Artyom Korenyako, a spokesman for the country’s aviation authority, said. (Bloomberg, 07.07.25)
• The number of women of reproductive age in Russia currently stands at 34 million, but by 2046 this figure will drop to 27 million—a decline of approximately 20.6%. This was reported by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova. (RM, 07.08.25)
  • Unlocking a full picture of Russia’s demographic situation is becoming increasingly hard after the state stopped publishing monthly statistics amid the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 07.08.25)
• Ramzan Kadyrov 48, appears to be seriously ill, presenting President Vladimir V. Putin with a new challenge in a part of southern Russia where wars killed tens of thousands in the 1990s and 2000s. (New York Times, 07.05.25)
• The Russia-wide independent election-monitoring group Golos has announced that it is ceasing operations. The decision, according to a statement released by the organization, follows the sentencing of its co-chair, Grigory Melkonyants, to five years in prison on charges of organizing the activities of an “undesirable” organization. (Meduza, 07.08.25)
• At a party congress in the Moscow region on Saturday, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) adopted a resolution declaring Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev’s speech denouncing the cult of personality around Joseph Stalin to have been a mistake, according to state media. (Meduza, 07.07.25)
• A Moscow court has issued an arrest warrant in absentia for Meduza publisher Galina Timchenko on charges of managing the activities of an “undesirable organization.” (Meduza, 07.09.25)
• The former campaign manager for liberal presidential candidate Boris Nadezhdin has been stripped of his Russian citizenship, he said July 8. Dmitry Kisiev had headed Nadezhdin’s campaign headquarters during the 2024 presidential election that saw Vladimir Putin re-elected to six more years in office. (MT/AFP, 07.08.25)
• Russia’s Federal Security Service has opened a criminal case against two journalists who reported from Sudzha in August 2024 while the town was under Ukrainian occupation. Pyotr Ivanov and Ruslan Terekhov, who no longer reside in Russia, face charges of illegal border crossing. (Meduza, 07.10.25)
• Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov defended Russia’s wartime censorship in an interview with the business magazine Expert, describing the suppression of critical information as a justified response to what he called an era of information warfare against the country. (MT/AFP, 07.11.25)
• The share of Russians who use profanities (often or sometimes) when speaking grew from 63% in 1992 to 69% in 2025 with Putin’s supporters more likely to swear than his supporters, according to Levada. When it comes to those who approve of Putin’s presidential activities, the share of those who swear (often or sometimes) was 68% in May. In contrast, when it comes to those who disapprove of Putin, the share of those who swear (often or sometimes) was 77% according to Levada. (RM, 07.09.25)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russian budget expenditures on military personnel participating in the full-scale invasion of Ukraine reached approximately 2 trillion rubles (roughly $25.8 billion at the current exchange rate) in the first half of 2025, according to analysts at Re: Russia. (Meduza, 07.10.25)
• Russian police officers are being offered cash bonuses for each detainee they recruit to fight in Ukraine, the exiled news outlet Vyorstka reported July 10. The bonuses, ranging from 10,000 to 100,000 rubles ($130-1,300) per recruit depending on the region, were introduced after Russia started requiring officers to inform detainees between ages 18 and 65 that enlisting in the military could allow them to avoid prosecution. (MT/AFP, 07.10.25)
• Russia is considering scrapping its only aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, which has been undergoing repairs since 2018, the pro-Kremlin daily Izvestia reported, citing a source familiar with the matter. (MT/AFP, 07.11.25)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Russia's recently fired transportation minister, Roman Starovoit, was found dead in his car, and probably died of suicide, Russia's State Investigative Committee said July 7. Starovoit's body, bearing a gunshot wound, was found in his car in Odintsovo, a suburb of Moscow. News of Starovoit's death came hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced in a decree that he was relieving Starovoit of his job. (Washington Post, 07.07.25)
  • The Kremlin said July 8 that it was “shocked” by the apparent suicide of Starovoit, “It can’t not shock normal people, and of course it shocked us, too,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. (MT/AFP, 07.08.25)
  • Several senior Kremlin officials attended a memorial service on July 10 for former Transportation Minister Roman Starovoit, while President Vladimir Putin sent a wreath but did not attend in person. (MT/AFP, 07.10.25)
  • A funeral for Starovoit was held in St. Petersburg on July 11. (MT/AFP, 07.11.25)
• Andrey Korneichuk, deputy head of the Russian Federal Road Agency’s Property Management Department, died at the Transportation Ministry’s Moscow headquarters on July 7. (Meduza, 07.07.25)
• Andrey Badalov, the vice president of the Russian state-controlled oil pipeline monopoly Transneft, has died after falling from the window of his apartment in Moscow. (Meduza, 07.04.25)
  • A growing number of Russian officials, business executives and public figures have died under strange or violent circumstances since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Many were said to have fallen from windows and balconies. (MT/AFP, 07.09.25)
• Russian law enforcement authorities launched a criminal investigation into an alleged $12 million fraud scheme tied to border defense construction in the Belgorod region, the Kommersant business newspaper reported July 11, citing anonymous sources familiar with the case. Former Belgorod region Deputy Governor Rustem Zainullin, four businessmen and two construction firms have been named as defendants in the case, according to the sources. (MT/AFP, 07.11.25)
• Colonel General Khalil Arslanov, former deputy chief of Russia’s General Staff, was sentenced to 17 years in prison on July 7 after being convicted of bribery and embezzlement. (Meduza, 07.08.25)
• A former top official of Russia’s National Guard has been arrested on suspicion of bribery and abuse of power, the latest in a string of arrests within the powerful internal security agency, state-run media reported July 7. Viktor Strigunov, who served as first deputy director of the National Guard until late 2023, was taken into custody by law enforcement, the TASS news agency reported. A(MT/AFP, 07.07.25)
• A Russian gold mining tycoon was blocked from leaving the country over the weekend as authorities moved to nationalize his company and investigate alleged corruption and financial misconduct. Konstantin Strukov, the CEO of Russia’s third-largest gold producer Yuzhuralzoloto, was reportedly preparing to fly from the Chelyabinsk region to Turkey on Saturday aboard his private $50 million Bombardier jet when federal aviation authorities halted his departure. (MT/AFP, 07.07.25)
• Russian authorities are investigating a sixth suspected explosion this year on a tanker serving a Russian port after an ammonia leak linked to an apparent explosion on a gas tanker at the Baltic port of Ust-Luga on Sunday. The incident on the Eco Wizard, owned by Greece’s StealthGas, came nine days after a blast on the Greek-owned crude oil tanker Vilamoura in the Mediterranean. There has been speculation that the explosions are linked to Ukraine, although the Ukrainian authorities have declined to comment and there are rival theories, including links between many of the affected vessels and Libya. (Financial Times, 07.07.25)
• Dmitry Artyakov, the son of Rostec Vice President Vladimir Artyakov, has been detained in the Spanish city of Girona. Artyakov is suspected of money laundering. According to the publication, his grandmother Anna Kurepina received 12.7 million euros in her account in a Spanish bank under the guise of a loan and used this money to buy real estate, which was then transferred to her grandson. (Meduza, 07.11.25)
• Since the start of the full-scale war in 2022, about 90 imprisonment and detainment institutions of Russia have filed for liquidation, according to data from the human rights project "Open Space." These include pretrial detention centers, educational colonies, and even one of the eight prisons, that is, the most severe institution in the entire penitentiary system. (Istories, 07.08.25)

• Russia’s State Duma has passed legislation that officially restores the Federal Security Service’s authority to operate its own pretrial detention facilities. (Meduza, 07.08.25)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• A British jury convicted three men of setting fire to a London warehouse where Ukrainian-bound equipment was being stored, a plot prosecutors said was orchestrated by operatives linked to the Russian mercenary company Wagner. Prosecutors said three men—Nii Mensah, 23, Jakeem Rose, 23, and Ugnius Asmena, 20—were convicted of aggravated arson in the March 2024 fire at the Ukrainian-owned warehouse in East London. Officials said the three had been recruited by two other men—Dylan Earl, 20, and Jake Reeves, 23. According to prosecutors, Earl and Reeves were contacted and hired for the arson attack by operatives from the Wagner Group. Officials said Earl and Reeves had also pleaded guilty to charges related to a separate plot to kidnap Yevgeny Chichvarkin, who is an outspoken critic of the Kremlin and set fire to the acclaimed restaurant he owns in London’s posh Mayfair district. (RFE.RL, 07.09.25)
• An ex-ASML Holding NV employee was sentenced to three years in Dutch prison for sharing confidential information from several chip manufacturing companies with Russia. The 43-year-old Russian was found guilty of breaking sanctions laws, stealing trade secrets and sharing them with Russia, according to the Rotterdam court. (Bloomberg, 07.10.25)
• Afghanistan's government said on July 3 that Russia had become the first country to officially recognize its rule, calling it a "brave decision." (MT/AFP, 07.04.25)
• Russia lowered its weekly wheat export duty to zero for the first time since it was introduced in June 2021 as it attempts to kick-start sluggish sales. The Russian agricultural ministry set the duty at zero from July 9 to July 15, down from 56.3 rubles ($0.70) per ton in effect from July 2 through July 8. (Bloomberg, 07.05.25)
• Russian tour companies have started advertising travel packages to Afghanistan, offering weeklong trips to the country for around $3,000 as Moscow deepens its ties with the Taliban-led government in Kabul. (MT/AFP, 07.07.25)
• Russian television network RTVI has launched broadcasts in Mali via the country’s largest provider, Malivision, the channel announced on July 8 (MT/AFP, 07.08.25)
• Russia is advancing plans to revamp its international development efforts, with U.S. foreign aid models serving as inspiration, the head of the state cultural diplomacy agency said July 8. (MT/AFP, 07.08.25)

Ukraine:

• Among Ukrainians, the current Ambassador to the U.K. Valerii Zaluzhnyi and Zelenskyy enjoy the greatest trust, slightly behind them is the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate Kirill Budanov. The most trusted are Zaluzhnyi (73%), Zelenskyy (67%) and Budanov (56%). (Pravda.ua, 07.09.25)
• Zelenskyy said he’s weighing the appointment of his defense chief as the country’s next ambassador to the U.S. in a move that may trigger a government overhaul in Kyiv. A nomination of Defense Minister Rustem Umerov would prompt “a serious reshuffle” in the cabinet, Zelenskyy told reporters in Rome after a conference. The remarks come days after Zelenskyy discussed replacing the current envoy Oksana Markarova during his phone call with President Donald Trump. (Bloomberg, 07.10.25)
• Ukraine said it detained two Chinese citizens on suspicion of espionage regarding the Neptune missile system Kyiv used to sink Moscow’s Black Sea flagship in the early stages of Russia’s full-scale invasion. (Bloomberg, 07.09.25)
• According to the National Agency on Corruption Prevention of Ukraine, the number of sentences for committing corruption crimes in Ukraine is growing every year. In total, last year, 2,195 people were convicted of corruption criminal offenses and corruption-related criminal offenses, or almost 80% of all those accused in such cases (according to court decisions that have entered into force). In 2024, sentences against 60 people convicted last year in top-corruption cases considered by the HACC came into force. But in 2021, for comparison, sentences against 24 people came into force. (UNN, 07.10.25)
• State Bureau of Investigation officers are conducting searches at the home of a former infrastructure minister, who may have been involved in a lawmaker's fraud scheme, the bureau's spokesperson told the Kyiv Independent on July 11. Though the statement did not reveal the names of the people involved, Ukrainska Pravda reported earlier that the searches had been conducted at the home of former Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov. (Kyiv Independent, 07.11.25)
• Law enforcement agencies are conducting searches at the home and military unit of Vitaliy Shabunin, head of the Anti-Corruption Action Center's (AntAC) executive board, who is currently serving in the army, the center said on July 11. Shabunin, one of Ukraine's most influential anti-corruption crusaders, believes the cases to be politically motivated, linking them to the President's Office and controversial Deputy Chief of Staff Oleh Tatarov. (Kyiv Independent, 07.11.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Heavy fuel oil from December’s spill in the Black Sea has reached the shores of Abkhazia, more than 350 kilometers (217 miles) southeast of the spill site, a local climatologist told Kremlin-funded media on Sunday. (MT/AFP, 07.07.25)
• Law enforcement authorities in Moscow detained over 500 migrants during raids on hostels and mosques in the city’s southeast, authorities said July 8. (MT/AFP, 07.08.25)
• The head of the Azerbaijani diaspora in the Moscow region said July 4 that Russian authorities revoked his citizenship, adding that he plans to return to Azerbaijan amid a growing diplomatic dispute between the two countries. A video shared late July 3 by an anonymously run Telegram channel appeared to show officials informing Elshan Ibragimov that his Russian citizenship had been retroactively revoked as of June 18. (MT/AFP, 07.04.25)
• Lithuanian leaders were taken to a shelter after a false alarm about a combat drone entering the Baltic nation’s airspace from neighboring Belarus. (Bloomberg, 07.10.25)

IV. Quotable and notable

• “As I look across the [NATO] alliance, there are certain countries that would have a very strong value proposition in terms of being able to bring unmanned technologies to bear whether they’re aerial technologies or maritime unmanned capabilities that have proven very effective in the Black Sea region, for example,” new SACEUR Alexus Gregory Grynkewich said in response to a question from on which emerging technologies EUCOM should emphasize. (Aviation Today, 07.10.25)

Footnotes

1. Sputnik is a Russian government funded entity.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by AP Photo/Evan Vucci.