Find past issues in the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card archive. 

April 15 update: Russia gained 142 square miles of Ukraine's territory (about 1 1/2 Nantucket islands) in the past month, and its overall pace of advance has picked back up this week. This week’s gain of 50 square miles is nearly double the prior week’s advance of 29 square miles. According to ISW’s April 15, 2025 analysis, Russian armed forces appear to be attempting to force Ukraine’s complete withdrawal from Kursk by opening a new line of assault toward the strategically important Ukrainian town of Sumy, by way of the village of Yunakivka.

Who’s Gaining and Who’s Losing What?

Territorial Control (figures as of April 15, 2025)

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Report Card*

Change in Russia’s control of Ukrainian territory.

(Based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.)

• Since Feb. 24, 2022:
  • Russia: +27,323 square miles. 12% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to half the size of New York state).¹
• Total area of all Ukrainian territory Russia presently controls, including Crimea and parts of Donbas Russia had seized prior to the full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022:
  • Russia: +43,948 square miles. 19% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to the U.S. state of Ohio.)
• In past month (March 18–April 15, 2025): Russia gained 142 square miles.²
• In past week: Russia gained 50 square miles—nearly double the previous week’s rate—the equivalent of about 2 Manhattan islands.

Russian net territorial control in Ukraine by month: February 2022–March 2025. (Also based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.)

Military casualties  

• Russia: More than 790,000 killed or injured, according to an April 2025 estimate by Cavoli.³ 48,000 missing.
• Ukraine: 400,000 killed or injured, according to a January 2025 estimate by Zelensky.⁴ 35,000 missing.

Civilian fatalities

• Russia: 652 killed.⁵
• Ukraine: 12,700 killed.

Military vehicles and equipment⁶

• Russia: 21,199 lost.
  • Tanks and armored vehicles: 12,397.
  • Aircraft: 305.
  • Naval vessels: 22.⁷
• Ukraine: 8,577 lost.
  • Tanks and armored vehicles: 4,354.
  • Aircraft: 183.⁸
  • Naval vessels: 35.⁹

Citizens displaced

• Russia:
  • 800,000 left Russia for economic or political reasons, 0.6% of Russian population.
  • 112,000 were displaced in Russia’s Kursk region during Ukraine’s incursion in August 2024-March 2025.
• Ukraine: 10.2 million displaced Ukrainians, 23% of Ukrainian pre-invasion population of 44 million.
  • Internally displaced: 3.7 million.
  • International refugees: 6.5 million.

Economic impact¹⁰

• Russia’s economic growth: 5.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)
  • 1.6% GDP growth forecast for 2025.
  • Budget deficit in 2024: 1.7% of GDP.
  • Russian ruble: 0.01197 U.S. dollars. +2% since the invasion.
  • 3-year bond yield: 17.4%.
• Ukraine’s economic growth (negative): -22.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)
  • 2.5% GDP growth forecast for 2025.
  • Budget deficit in 2024: 20.4% of GDP, excluding grants.
  • Ukrainian hryvnia: 0.02426 U.S. dollars. -26% since the invasion.
  • 3-year bond yield: 24.6%

Infrastructure

• Russia:
  • A journalistic investigation estimated in March 2024 that Ukrainian strikes had rendered facilities which accounted for 1/6^th of the production of gasoline and diesel fuels in Russia non-operational.
  • A journalistic investigation estimated in March 2025 that Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s energy sector have caused at least 60 billion rubles ($714 million) in damage.
• Ukraine:
  • Ukraine's extensive transmission infrastructure has suffered severe damage in the war, with capacity falling from 56 GW to an estimated 9 GW by the end of 2024.
  • Some 64%, or 36 out of Ukraine’s 25 GW electricity generating capacity destroyed or occupied as of 2024.
  • Ukraine had lost 80% of its thermal capacity due to Russian attacks as of September 2024.
  • Ukraine relied for 2/3rds of its electricity generation on three functioning Soviet-era NPPs, which it still controls, as of 2024.

Popular support

• Russia: 58% support peace negotiations.
• Ukraine: 51% support peace negotiations.

Other criteria which may be even more important (about which we continue to search for reliable indicators):

• Ammunition supply
• Foreign military aid
• Force generation
• Military leadership
• Training
• Morale
• Control of strategic locations
• Information war: with U.S./Europe; with world.

Footnotes

1. According to Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group’s map, as of April 15, 2025, Russian forces occupied a total 112,578 square kilometers of Ukrainian land (43,466 square miles), which constituted 18.7% of Ukrainian territory.
2. In the past 30 days, Russian forces made a gain of 232 square kilometers (90 square miles), according to an April 15, 2025 estimate by the Economist.

3. Here are more estimates of Russian servicemen killed and wounded [in chronological order]:

   (a) 600,000 killed or injured, according to Trump’s December 2024 estimate.

   (b) 1,000,000 killed, according to Trump’s January 2025 estimate.

   (c) More than 750,000 killed or injured, according to a March 2025 estimate by DNI/U.S. intelligence community.

4. Here are more estimates of Ukrainian servicemen killed and wounded [in chronological order]:

   (a) 400,000 killed or injured, according to Trump’s December 2024 estimate.

   (b) 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and 370,000 wounded, according to Zelenskyy’s December 2024 estimate.

   (c) 700,000 killed, according to Trump’s January 2025 estimate.

   (d) “Millions” killed in the war, according to Trump’s April 2025 estimate.

5. This estimate was given by Russia’s Investigative Committee in March 2025.
6. Oryx, “Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” Oryx (blog), https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html; “The Military Balance 2022,” IISS, https://www.iiss.org/publications/the-military-balance/the-military-balance-2022; Oryx, “List Of Aircraft Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html; Oryx, “List Of Naval Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-naval-losses-during-2022.html.
7. Not being updated as of 2025.
8. Ukraine lost one F-16 this month.
9. Not being updated as of 2025.
10. International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and Russian estimates. “Russia and Ukraine 3-Year Bond Yield,” Investing.com, https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/russia-3-year-bond-yield; World Bank Group, “Europe and Central Asia Economic Update,” https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/94bdc078-9c64-4833-992a-fda7b3d1a640/content; World Bank, “Russian Federation MPO,” https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/d5f32ef28464d01f195827b7e020a3e8-0500022021/related/mpo-rus.pdf; Trading Economics, “Russia 3-Year Bond Yield,”  https://tradingeconomics.com/ruge3y:gov ; World Bank, “The World Bank in Ukraine,” https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ukraine/overview#3; https://www.exchange-rates.org/exchange-rate-history/rub-usd-2024-11-01.

*This card was produced by RM staff.