5 Things to Know

1. Donald Trump’s meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the White House turned into an unprecedented fracas after the U.S. leader berated his Ukrainian counterpart for courting WWIII, while JD Vance accused Zelenskyy of not being grateful enough for U.S. support. To an RM staffer watching the Sky News broadcast, the tone appeared to grow contentious after Trump said he was not aligned with either party to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict,¹ but is rather aligned with the U.S. and the “good of the world.”² Raising his voice at Zelenskyy in front of TV cameras, Trump said: “You don’t have the cards right now with us, you start having problems right now. You’re gambling with the lives of millions of people. You’re gambling with World War III,” according to FT. Vance also actively participated in the melee: “Do you think that it’s respectful to come to the Oval Office of the United States of America and attack the administration that is trying to prevent the destruction of your country?” The spat was followed by Zelenskyy’s televised departure from the White House with the much-previewed U.S.-Ukrainian deal on America’s access to revenues from Ukraine’ yet untapped mineral deposits unsigned. The battle of words between Trump and Vance on one side and Zelenskyy on the other side in the White House in front of TV cameras is unprecedented. No matter what justified grievances Zelenskyy may have with the current peace process, it might have been short-sighted on his part to get into this kind of public spat with the leader of the country that has very significant leverage vis-a-vis Ukraine. Zelenskyy—who said Feb. 23 that he is willing to step down as Ukraine’s president if it would secure lasting peace for his country—has strengthened his reputation as someone capable of standing up to world leaders, but it could backfire given that Ukraine depends on the U.S. for some of the critical elements of its defense.*
2. Prior to engaging in a shouting match with Zelenskyy in the White House on Friday, Trump had continued this week to signal his desire to end the conflict in Ukraine and revive U.S.-Russian economic ties, prompting Putin to reciprocate rhetorically. Among other things, Trump again ruled out NATO membership for Ukraine as he continued to try to woo Putin with conciliatory gestures. “NATO—you can forget about,” Trump said. “I think that’s probably the reason the whole thing started.” Trump also claimed the war could be ended “within weeks” and warned of the risk of escalation into a “third world war.” The U.S. leader also pointed to the ongoing talks on “major economic development transactions which will take place between the United States and Russia.”³ In his turn, Putin claimed openness to peace and a “dialogue on … an indivisible European and global security system for the long term,” but reaffirmed his claim that annexed Ukrainian regions are “non-negotiable.” He also insisted that Ukraine cannot be allowed to continue serving as a “hostile outpost” against Russia. In separate comments this week, Putin said he is ready to cooperate with Washington on developing rare-earth elements that the U.S. needs. While praising Trump for his overtures and offering opportunities to revive some of the bilateral economic ties, Putin also tasked the FSB with thwarting any attempts to disrupt “newly resumed dialogue” between the U.S. and Russia. One would struggle to recall whether and when Putin has previously tasked the FSB with protecting U.S.-Russian relations from being disrupted. Also, Putin’s tasking of the FSB confirms that its remit is not limited to domestic security, making it a competitor to the SVR and GRU in activities outside Russia.
3. Russian and U.S. officials met in Istanbul on Feb. 27 to discuss embassy-related issues as part of efforts to stabilize bilateral ties, according to MT/AFP. The U.S. State Department described the talks as “constructive,” with both sides identifying initial steps to stabilize diplomatic mission operations. The discussions addressed resolving financial and property disputes affecting diplomatic missions, including the return of six Russian properties seized by the U.S. between 2016 and 2018, according to Meduza. Russia also proposed resuming direct flights with the U.S. during the talks, according to Meduza. The U.S. delegation, led by Deputy Assistant Secretary Sonata Coulter, raised concerns about banking access and embassy staffing, while Russia’s delegation was headed by Alexander Darchiyev. During the talks, the U.S. approved Darchiyev as Russia’s new ambassador to Washington, according to Meduza.
4. The leaders of China and Russia sought to project a unified front on the third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine amid U.S. overtures to Moscow seen as attempts to pry the two powers apart, WSJ reported. In a phone call Feb. 24, Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Putin described the relationship between their countries as robust and immune to interventions from any third country, according to this newspaper. Xi said that China and Russia are “true friends who share weal and woe, support each other and develop together.” The Kremlin said that Putin—who has also sent Security Council chief Sergei Shoigu to meet Xi this week—informed his counterpart “about the recent Russian-American contacts.” “The President of China expressed his support for the dialogue initiated between Russia and the United States,” according to the Kremlin.
5. In the past month, Russia gained 191 square miles of Ukraine’s territory (about 2 Martha’s Vineyard islands). In Russia’s Kursk Oblast, Ukraine lost 10 square miles in the past week—the fastest rate of loss of Russian territory for Ukraine since early December 2024, according to the Feb. 26, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. Additionally, Russia launched the largest number of Shahed drones against Ukraine to date on the night of Feb. 22 to 23 (267), according to Zelenskyy. Up to half of the drones that Russia launches are dummies, according to the Ukrainian air force.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• More than 400 people have been working in shifts since damage was caused to the giant shelter structure covering the area of Chernobyl's unit 4. International Atomic Energy Agency experts report that radiation levels remain normal. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi, in his latest update on the situation, said that since the strike on Feb. 14, Ukrainian experts had used thermal imaging and surveillance drones to locate "smoldering fires in the insulation between the layers of the arch-shaped New Safe Confinement structure, injecting water to put them out." (WNN, 02.28.25)
• Less than a year before his bloodied corpse was found sprawled on a snowy Moscow sidewalk, assassinated by an exploding electric scooter, the Russian general overseeing the country’s nuclear defense forces was shot. Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov’s killing in December grabbed global headlines. But his hospitalization with a gunshot wound nine months earlier has never been disclosed to the public. Kirillov’s shooting surfaced in a trove of leaked medical records. (RFE/RL, 02.24.25)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• A delegation from North Korea's Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) arrived in Moscow on Feb. 25 at the invitation of Russia's ruling party, United Russia, amid reports that North Korea may be shipping more material to Russia. Russian and North Korean state media reported that Russian Foreign Ministry Consular Department Head Andrei Klimov and North Korean Ambassador to Russia Sin Hong Chol met with a high-ranking North Korean delegation, including North Korean Politburo member Ri Hi Yong, in Moscow. (ISW, 02.25.25)
  • Putin met with North Korean party leaders in the latest sign of deepening ties between the two countries as Kim Jong Un touted a new strategic missile tested earlier this week in a bid to bolster his “nuclear shield.” Putin held talks with a North Korean delegation led by Ri Hi Yong, a secretary of the central committee of the North’s ruling Worker’s Party of Korea, in Moscow. (Bloomberg, 02.27.25)
• North Korea appears to have sent more troops to support Russia in its war, South Korea's spy agency said Feb. 27, but the agency has not yet determined exactly how many extra soldiers have been deployed. Earlier on Feb. 27, South Korean newspaper JoongAng Ilbo had reported that 1,000 to 3,000 additional North Korean troops had been deployed. (WP, 02.27.25)
• The only two North Korean soldiers caught alive by Ukraine said they were encouraged to blow themselves up to evade capture. Twenty-one-year-old Paek, a North Korea special-forces soldier, didn’t know he was going to war until he arrived near the front line. (WSJ, 02.28.24)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Iran's top leaders aligned positions on issues around Iran's nuclear program at talks in Tehran on Feb. 25, Russia's Foreign Ministry said. Lavrov discussed a wide range of bilateral and regional issues with both President Masoud Pezeshkian and his Iranian counterpart Seyed Abbas Araghchi, a ministry statement said. "Positions were aligned on the situation around the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on the Iranian Nuclear Program," it said. (Reuters, 02.26.25)
• Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country won’t agree to direct nuclear talks with the U.S. while Trump persists with his hardline policy against the Islamic Republic. (Bloomberg, 02.25.25)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Russian forces continue to execute Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in clear violation of international law. Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets reported on Feb. 23 that footage circulating on social media shows a Russian servicemember executing a Ukrainian POW in the Kursk region of Russia. (ISW, 02.23.25)
• Russia has struck a deal with Ukraine and the Red Cross to evacuate residents from the embattled Kursk region. (MT/AFP, 02.24.25)
• Ukraine expects to reach an agreement with the International Monetary Fund as early as this week, paving the way for another payout of aid from its $15.5 billion loan program, people familiar with the matter said. (Bloomberg, 02.28.25)
• The U.S. State Department is compiling a list of additional exemptions to Washington’s suspension of humanitarian aid to Ukraine. The measures could grant Kyiv access to economic and security-related assistance that had previously been frozen by the Trump administration. (Meduza/Politico, 02.26.25)
• Ukraine will have to buy between 1 billion and 2 billion cubic meters of gas this year to prepare for next heating season, the nation’s largest private energy company estimates. (Bloomberg, 02.26.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the past month, Russia gained 191 square miles of Ukraine’s territory (about 2 Martha’s Vineyard islands). In Russia’s Kursk Oblast, Ukraine lost 10 square miles in the past week— the fastest rate of loss of Russian territory for Ukraine since early December 2024, according to the Feb. 26, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (RM, 02.28.25)⁴

Sunday, Feb. 23, 2025

• On the night of Feb. 22 to 23, Russian forces launched a record number of drone strikes against Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Force reported Feb. 23 that Russian forces launched three Iskander-M/North Korean-provided KN-23 ballistic missiles from occupied Crimea and 267 Shahed and other drones from the directions of Oryol, Bryansk and Kursk cities; Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 138 Shahed and decoy drones over Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Mykolaiv, Odesa and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts; that 119 drones were “lost,” likely due to Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) interference; and that three drones flew toward Belarusian airspace. Ukrainian officials reported that drones damaged infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Poltava, Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, and that a missile damaged civilian infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Zelenskyy stated Feb. 23 that Russia launched the largest number of Shahed drones against Ukraine on the night of Feb. 22 to 23. (ISW, 02.23.25)

Monday, Feb. 24, 2025

• Ukrainian authorities said that they had targeted a Russian oil refinery in the Ryazan region overnight, while Russian officials and media reported a fire at the facility. (MT/AFP, 02.24.25)

Wednesday, Feb. 26, 2025

• Russian forces dropped multiple aerial bombs on the city of Kostiantynivka in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, local authorities reported. According to Ukraine’s National Police, at least six bombs struck the city, killing five civilians and injuring 11 others. The attack damaged 52 civilian structures, including 20 residential buildings. Officials are still working to confirm the number of casualties and assess the full extent of the damage. (Meduza, 02.26.25)
• A Russian drone attack on the Kyiv region’s Bucha district early Feb. 26 killed one person and injured two others, reported acting Gov. Mykola Kalashnyk. (Meduza, 02.26.25)
• Ukrainian drones attacked a major seaport in southern Russia as well as Rosneft PJSC’s Tuapse oil refinery. The Tuapse port on the Black Sea and the refinery with the same name were the targets of the attack by military drones, Ukraine’s General Staff of the Armed Forces said in Facebook post. (Bloomberg, 02.26.25)

Thursday, Feb. 27, 2025

• Russia's Defense Ministry said that it shot down 19 Ukrainian drones across the country and annexed Crimea overnight, while authorities in the southwestern Belgorod region said one person was killed. (MT/AFP, 02.27.25)
• Russian forces launched a massive drone attack on the energy infrastructure of Ukraine’s Kharkiv region on Feb. 27, firing over 10 drones and causing significant damage. (RBC Ukraine, 02.27.25)

Friday, Feb. 28, 2025

• On the night of Feb. 27-28, Russia launched over 200 Shahed drones and decoys at Ukraine, with Ukrainian air defense systems intercepting 107 of them, according to Ukraine’s Air Force. (RBC Ukraine, 02.28.25)
• Russian forces have retaken four villages over the past week in the southwestern Kursk region, where Ukrainian troops captured large swaths of territory last summer, Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed. Earlier this week, Russia’s military announced it had recaptured the nearby villages of Pogrebki and Gorlovka, located just north of Novaya Sorochina. Further south, toward Sudzha, it said its troops also took back the village of Nikolsky. The DeepState military blog, which has ties to Ukraine’s army, estimates that Ukrainian forces still control around 396 square kilometers (153 square miles) in the Kursk region. (MT/AFP, 02.28.25)
• Russia is launching large numbers of drones at Ukraine nightly, with half being Shahed kamikaze drones and the other half decoys designed to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses, according to Col. Yuriy Ignat, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Air Force. The strategy aims to deplete Ukraine’s missile stocks by forcing costly interceptions of cheap decoys. Russia uses seven launch directions for these attacks, often followed by missile strikes. (Ukrainska Pravda, 02.28.25)
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says his country’s army is 880,000-strong. Russia’s grouping in and around Ukraine is thought to be 720,000, including reserves and security forces. That seems a reasonable ratio. But the raw comparison is misleading. Where it matters—on the front line, in the trenches—Russia is replacing its losses much faster than Ukraine. In 2024 Russia added 430,000 men without reverting to general mobilization. Even after staggering losses, the headcount grew by about 140,000, and it is planned to increase by about the same amount this year. Russia’s Ukraine grouping is also supported by other elements of its wider, officially 1.5 million-strong army. “I guarantee at least 1 million Russian soldiers are involved in the war against us,” says a senior Ukrainian official. (The Economist, 02.26.25)
• Mediazona published its data in full for the first time, listing the names and details of almost 100,000 Russian soldiers killed in battle in Ukraine, collated from social media posts and local news. A separate project by iStories has gathered data using AI tools and reached a similar figure, with 104,000 names. (FT, 02.25.25)
  • The increasing number of Russian men in their 50s, 60s and even 70s are fighting and dying on the frontline. While mobilized Russian soldiers were predominantly in their mid-30s when they died, the average age of a contract soldier was well over 40, according to the Mediazona data, which includes the ages of more than 70,000 soldiers. More than 4,000 Russian contract soldiers are listed in the database as having been killed aged over 50 overall—as compared with fewer than 500 regular or mobilized soldiers in that age group, and just 869 prisoners. Contract soldiers now bear the brunt of Russia’s invasion. (FT, 02.25.25)
• Since the start of the full-scale war, more than 100 former Russian regional and municipal officials, lawmakers and law enforcement officers in Russia have been sent to the front from pre-trial detention centers and prisons, avoiding criminal prosecution in the process, according to calculations by the BBC News Russian. (Meduza, 02,25.25)
• In Ukraine, the average age of a soldier is 43. Though the conscription age was lowered from 27 to 25 last spring, Ukraine has said it wants to protect future generations and lowering it further is unpopular. (FT, 02.25.25)
• Russia’s FSB claims to have detained a Ukrainian and a Russian citizen in Moscow for allegedly plotting to assassinate Metropolitan Tikhon (Shevkunov) of Simferopol and Crimea. The FSB alleges the plot aimed to kill Shevkunov during his visit to Moscow, with the suspects planning to flee Russia using forged passports. (iStories, 02.28.25)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• Norwegian company Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace plans to produce NASAMS air defense system missiles in Ukraine, aiming to manufacture hundreds of missiles locally. This move is part of efforts to bolster Ukraine’s air defense capabilities amid ongoing conflict. (RBC Ukraine, 02.28.25)
• The European Union will hold an emergency summit to discuss accelerating military aid for Ukraine and strengthening the bloc’s defense. The European Council will convene March 6, two weeks before a planned quarterly summit, Council President Antonio Costa said Feb. 23. (Bloomberg, 02.23.25)
• The U.K. is in discussions to convene a group of European leaders for further talks about Russia’s war in Ukraine, according to people familiar with the matter, following a week of shuttle diplomacy between Paris, Washington and Kyiv. (Bloomberg, 02.25.25)
• European foreign ministers will be meeting in Brussels, where they are expected to debate how much to send to Kyiv in their next support package. That plan could end up totaling more than 20 billion euros, according to two people familiar with the discussions who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. (NYT, 02.24.25)
• The U.S. Congress has voted through five bills appropriating a total of $175 billion for Ukraine in the three years since Russia's invasion, according to a January report from the Congressional Research Service. The Kiel Institute for the World Economy has calculated that about $120 billion of the appropriated funds have been allocated to programs that directly support Ukraine. Of that amount, the U.S. has provided $67.3 billion in the form of weapons and other military assistance. Budget support accounts for $49 billion. The remaining $3.6 billion was spent on humanitarian aid. But a substantial portion of the $175 billion doesn't directly support Ukraine. It pays for activities associated with the war, ranging from supporting a heightened U.S. force presence in Europe to responding to global food insecurity and assisting Ukrainian refugees in the U.S., according to the Kiel Institute. (WSJ, 02.26.25)
• Overall, Ukraine currently builds or finances about 55% of its military hardware. The U.S. supplies around 20%, while Europe supplies 25%, according to one Western official. (WSJ, 02.25.25)
• The U.S. has stationed criminal investigators in Europe to probe allegations that American defense items are being swiped along the pipeline to Ukraine. (Washington Times, 02.24.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• According to the Kyiv School of Economics, 475 foreign companies have quit the Russian market since the invasion of Ukraine, while another 1,360 companies have scaled back their business there. According to KSE estimates seen by FT, foreign companies have suffered at least $167bn in direct losses over three years of the full-scale war, including write-offs and court rulings that resulted in partial seizures. (FT, 02.28.25)
• The Council of the EU approved the 16th package of 83 sanctions listings, consisting of 48 individuals and 35 organizations responsible for actions undermining or threatening Ukraine’s territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence. The European Union's latest sanctions against Moscow include a ban on third-country airlines flying to the 27-nation bloc if they carry out domestic flights in Russia. It also targets Russia's so-called "shadow fleet" of vessels used to evade oil export restrictions, as well as individuals and entities accused of supporting its war. The sanctions blacklist 74 ships and restrict Russian aluminum imports, while also barring the sale of gaming consoles that could be repurposed for drone operations. Additionally, eight Russian media outlets have been banned from broadcasting in the EU.  (Ukrainska Pravda, 02.24.25, MT, 02.24.25, Reuters, 02.24.25)
• The European Union is exploring more aggressively ways to seize Russia’s frozen central bank assets as the bloc scrambles to ensure financial and military support for Ukraine amid indications the U.S. may pare back its own assistance. EU officials are discussing how the assets could be used as collateral by a planned International Claims Commission, which will determine compensation owed to Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 02.22.25)
• European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is likely to discuss preventing restricted technologies from places such as India reaching Russia in violation of sanctions when she visits the South Asian nation from Feb. 27, a top envoy said. (Bloomberg, 02.27.25)
• Hungary is pushing to remove seven Russian billionaires and one federal minister from the EU’s sanctions list before agreeing to extend sanctions over Russia’s war in Ukraine, the investigative news outlet Systema reported Feb. 26, citing two anonymous EU officials. Reuters previously reported that Hungary had demanded the lifting of EU travel bans and asset freezes on eight Russians but did not identify them by name. According to Systema, an affiliate of the U.S.-funded news organization Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, billionaires Alisher Usmanov, Mikhail Fridman and Petr Aven are among those on the list presented by Hungarian officials. Russian Sports Minister Mikhail Degtyarev is also listed. (MT/AFP, 02.26.25)
• The U.K. has imposed sanctions on 10 China-based companies it says are enabling Russia’s defense industry, as part of its largest package of economic measures against Putin’s regime since 2022. The fresh sanctions, which also apply to some firms in Thailand and India, target those who support Russia’s military regime and the supply networks it relies on, the U.K.’s Foreign Office said in a statement. (Bloomberg, 02.24.25)
• U.S. President Donald Trump has decided to extend sanctions against Russia for at least another year, according to a document in the Federal Register. The sanctions, first imposed in 2014 following Russia’s invasion of Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, remain in effect as part of ongoing efforts to counter Russian aggression. (RBC Ukraine, 02.27.25)
• Not long after the U.S. and Russia sat down for their first high-level talks since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, one of the U.S.’s biggest multinationals received a call. The Russian government was planning a meeting to discuss the path for Western companies to re-enter the country. Would this particular multinational, the Russian government official on the phone asked, be interested in bringing back some of its brands? As Moscow and Washington re-engage politically at warp speed—discussing a possible end to the Ukraine conflict and an in-person meeting between presidents Putin and Trump—the U.S.-Russian economic relationship has become a key proxy for restoring ties. (FT, 02.28.25)
• Trump on Feb. 25 unveiled plans to sell "gold card" residency permits for $5 million each and said Russian oligarchs may be eligible. Trump announced the program at the White House, saying the “gold cards” will be available in about two weeks. "You have a green card; this is a gold card. We're going to be putting a price on that card of about $5 million," Trump said. Proceeds from sales will be used to reduce the deficit, Trump said. The program will be aimed at “people with money” who will create jobs, the president said. (RFE/RL, 02.26.25)
• UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel stated that a resolution to the Ukraine war could facilitate the sale of the bank’s Russian unit, which it has struggled to offload at a “fair price” due to regulatory and legal challenges. Orcel emphasized that a political breakthrough would normalize conditions, making an exit more feasible and financially favorable. UniCredit is one of the few major Western banks still operating in Russia. (FT, 02.20.25)
• French automaker Renault would need to reinvest 112.5 billion rubles ($1.29 billion) to regain its former Russian assets, the head of Russia’s top manufacturer, Avtovaz, said Feb. 24. Renault, which had the largest exposure to the Russian market among Western carmakers, suspended operations at its Moscow plant in March 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (MT, 02.25.25)
• Canada’s government sanctioned veteran TV journalist Vladimir Pozner on Feb. 24, the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as well as dozens of other individuals and entities. (MT/AFP, 02.25.25)
• The Australian government has announced a new round of sanctions against Russia on the third anniversary of the full-scale war in Ukraine. In a statement, the government said it had expanded its travel ban list by 70 individuals and imposed sanctions on 79 companies, along with additional targeted financial restrictions. (Meduza, 02.24.25)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Saturday, Feb. 22, 2025

• Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov claimed on Feb. 22 that U.S. and Russian officials are planning to meet within the next two weeks in an unspecified third country about bilateral relations. Ryabkov claimed that the United States and Russia are undertaking two "parallel" but "politically interconnected" negotiation tracks that will discuss the war in Ukraine and U.S.-Russian bilateral relations. (ISW, 02.22.25)

Sunday, Feb. 23, 2025

• Zelenskyy said he is willing to step down as Ukraine’s president if it would secure lasting peace for his country. “If it brings peace for Ukraine, if you really need me to leave my post, I’m ready. I can exchange it for NATO [membership],” Zelenskyy told reporters at a press conference in Kyiv Feb. 23. “If such conditions exist, [I will step down] immediately.” (FT, 02.23.25)
• U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff said Russia should not necessarily be blamed for sparking the war in Ukraine—a position that aligns with Trump’s recent strikes against Zelenskyy. “The war didn’t need to happen—it was provoked. It doesn’t necessarily mean it was provoked by the Russians,” Witkoff said on CNN’s “State of the Union” Feb. 23. Witkoff that day also referred to the early 2022 Istanbul protocols as offering "guideposts" for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Witkoff’s suggestion has buoyed Russian officials and spooked Ukraine and its backers. (Politico, 02.23.25, ISW, 02.23.25, WSJ, 02.28.25)

Monday, Feb. 24, 2025

• Trump said Putin is willing to accept European peacekeepers ahead of talks with his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, on ways to end the war in Ukraine. "I have specifically asked him that question. He has no problem it," Trump said, when asked by a reporter about Putin's position on the matter. Macron said European countries "are ready and willing to provide" Ukraine with security guarantees "which could perhaps include troops." The Kremlin on Feb. 25 declined to comment further. (RFE/RL, 02.24.25, FT, 02.25.25)
• Trump said the war in Ukraine could soon be brought to an end. “I think we could end it within weeks, if we’re smart,” the U.S. president said as he and Macron spoke to reporters in the White House on Feb. 24. “If we’re not smart, it will keep going and we’ll keep losing young beautiful people that shouldn’t be dying. And we don’t want that,” Trump said. “And — remember what I said — this could escalate into a third world war, and we don’t want that either.” (FT, 02.24.25)
• Macron hailed a “turning point” in efforts to sway Trump on Ukraine but failed to secure a commitment from the U.S. president to support any deployment of European troops to deter Russia in any postwar settlement, according to officials. “There are Europeans that are ready to engage to provide for these security guarantees,” said Macron after his meeting with Trump. “Now there’s a clear American message that the U.S. as an ally is ready to provide that solidarity for that approach. That is a turning point in my view.” (FT, 02.25.25)
• The European Union’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas stressed any potential peace deal to halt Russia’s war will need to involve Ukraine and Europe as fears grow both will be sidelined in talks. (Bloomberg, 02.24.25)
• Putin told a Russian TV reporter Feb. 24: “All other things aside, the current [U.S.] President has openly stated that he wants to achieve peace. By the way, this is something we want, too, and the quicker this happens, the better. But the current [Ukrainian] regime leader stands in the way of achieving this goal. That, in my view, is the reasoning behind Trump’s position. It is not about advancing Russia’s interests. But it probably serves the interests of Ukraine, Ukrainian statehood and could help preserve it. We have no objection to that, even if we do not want this territory to be used as a launchpad for aggression against the Russian Federation, or as a hostile outpost targeting us. At the end of the day, we want it to evolve into a friendly neighborly state.” (Kremlin.ru, 02.24.25)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Feb. 24 that Moscow was open to negotiations on ending the war against Ukraine but would only halt fighting when a peace settlement "suits" its interests. Lavrov claimed Russia was engaging with the United States on a peace settlement, while accusing Europe of seeking to prolong the conflict. He said Moscow was ready to negotiate with Ukraine, Europe or "any representatives who in good faith would like to help achieve peace." Lavrov noted that any peace agreement must include provisions banning Ukraine from joining NATO in the future. (MT/AFP, 02.24.25, ISW, 02.24.25)

Wednesday, Feb. 26, 2025

• Following a Cabinet meeting on Feb. 26, a reporter asked Trump what "concessions" he would like to see to bring an end to the three-year-long conflict. "Oh, I don't want to tell right now," Trump said. (Newsweek, 02.26.25)
• “We’re going to do the best we can to make the best deal we can for both sides, but for Ukraine, we’re going to try very hard to make a good deal so that they can get as much back as possible. We want to get as much back as possible,” Trump told reporters. (NY Post, 02.26.25)
• “Peacekeeping is very easy, it’s making the deal that’s very tough,” Trump said, noting that he wants to get a deal done first. (NY Post, 02.26.25)
• Trump insisted that his diplomacy was bringing a new spirit of compromise from Putin, who earlier “wanted the whole thing” in Ukraine. “He’s a very smart guy. He’s a very cunning person,” Trump said of Putin.  “I think we’re going to have a deal. If I didn’t get elected, I believe he would have just continued to go through Ukraine.” (Agence France-Presse, 02.27.25)
• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated Feb. 26 that if Russia is "making maximalist demands that [Russia] know[s] can’t be met," then the United States will know that Putin is not "serious" about engaging in negotiations. (ISW, 02.28.25)
• Trump told his cabinet Feb. 26 that that the United States would not be providing security guarantees to Ukraine. ''I'm not going to provide security guarantees beyond very much,'' he said at his first cabinet meeting. ''We're going to have Europe do that.'' A draft of the document says the United States ''supports Ukraine's effort to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace.'' (NYT, 02.26.25)
• French Finance Minister Eric Lombard said he expects the U.S. to provide backup for European troops to help maintain peace once a ceasefire is agreed between Ukraine and Russia. “If we want a ceasefire to be respected, we need a U.S. backup,” he said on Feb. 26. “I believe the Americans have agreed to do that.” (Bloomberg, 02.26.25)

Thursday, Feb. 27, 2025

• “Through their valor and daily victories, they [Russian armed forces] have created the conditions for the beginning of a serious dialogue, a dialogue on bringing a fundamental solution to Ukraine crisis, among others, including, of course—we always talk about it, and we have never refused to do so—by peaceful means; a dialogue on creating a system that will truly ensure a balance and mutual consideration of interests, an indivisible European and global security system for the long term, where the security of some countries cannot be ensured at the expense or to the detriment of the security of other countries, definitely not Russia,” Putin told an FSB board meeting. (Bloomberg, 02.27.25, Kremlin.ru, 02.27.25)
• The Kremlin on Feb. 27 ruled out relinquishing control of Ukrainian regions it claims to have annexed, setting a major red line as Russian and U.S. officials met in Istanbul for talks aimed at normalizing relations. "The territories that have become subjects of the Russian Federation, which are inscribed in our country's constitution, are an inseparable part of our country," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. "This is undeniable and non-negotiable," he said during a daily briefing. (MT/AFP, 02.27.25)
• Turkey, which has the second largest army in NATO after the U.S., is open to providing troops for a peacekeeping force in Ukraine, according to people familiar with the matter. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan discussed the matter with Zelenskyy and Lavrov during separate meetings in Ankara earlier this month, said the people. (Bloomberg, 02.27.25)
• European Union leaders at a meeting next week will discuss the appointment of a special envoy representing the bloc in possible negotiations around ending Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to people familiar with the matter. Top officials from the U.S. and Russia met for a first round of talks over the war in Ukraine in Saudi Arabia mid-February, without Ukraine or Europe at the table. (Bloomberg, 02.27.25)
• Zelenskyy will meet with over a dozen European leaders in London March 2 to discuss potential security guarantees for Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire. The summit, hosted by U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, will include updates on recent talks with Trump. Leaders from Germany, France and other European nations, as well as NATO and EU officials, are expected to attend. (Bloomberg, 02.28.25)
• Support for the actions of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine has reached 80% in February, comparable to the levels seen in March 2022, according to the Levada Center. A majority of respondents (59%) believe that peace negotiations should begin. Some 30% think that, to end the conflict, Russia should make certain concessions, while 60% hold the opposite view. The most preferred conditions for a peace agreement include the exchange of prisoners of war (92%), the protection of the rights of Russian-speaking citizens (83%), the status of the Russian Orthodox Church in Ukraine (79%) and the establishment of a government friendly to Russia (73%). Among conditions deemed unacceptable are Ukraine's accession to NATO (81%) and the return of certain territories to Ukraine. Opinions are divided on the deployment of peacekeeping forces: 39% are against it, 29% are in favor and 16% consider it acceptable. (Levada, 02.28.25)
• A recent poll conducted by independent Russian opposition polling organization Chronicles between Feb. 5 and 13 showed that 46% of respondents do not support the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine without Russia having achieved its war goals. The number of respondents who do not support such a Russian withdrawal had consistently decreased between February 2023 (47%) and September 2024 (31%) but then jumped back to February 2023 levels in February 2025. (ISW, 02.24.25)
• A poll, conducted in February 2025, said that 54% of Russian respondents reported adverse effects from the conflict, while only 9% said it had improved their lives. Another 32% said they had not noticed any significant impact. Economic hardship has been a key factor shaping public sentiment according to a new survey by the independent research project Chronicles. The survey said that 36% of respondents reported a deterioration in their financial situation, up from 27% in September 2024. Among working Russians, 40% said they were forced to work longer hours to sustain themselves, while only 6% had experienced a reduction in workload. Rising inflation and economic pressures have made it increasingly difficult for many to maintain their standard of living. (BNE/MT, 02.27.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Zelenskyy said he would be ready to step down if it were to guarantee peace to his war-torn country. Speaking in a news conference in Kyiv on Sunday, Zelenskyy said he would happily trade his presidency for Ukraine’s NATO membership if such an offer was made. The Ukrainian president said it was clear he “won’t be in power for decades.” He was speaking a day before Russia’s full-scale invasion of his country reaches its three-year mark. (Bloomberg, 02.23.25)
• Putin said Sunday that his decision to invade Ukraine three years ago was part of “God’s will.” “It was at God’s will that this fate fell upon our shoulders to carry out such a challenging but honorable mission of defending Russia,” Putin told soldiers after a Kremlin ceremony where he awarded them state decorations. (MT/AFP, 02.24.25)
• The United States voted with Russia, North Korea, Iran and 14 other Moscow-friendly countries Feb. 24 against a U.N. resolution condemning Russian aggression in Ukraine and calling for the return of Ukrainian territory. The resolution, sponsored by representatives from Kyiv, passed overwhelmingly in the U.N. General Assembly. The U.S. delegation also abstained from voting on its own competing resolution that simply called for an end to the war, after European-sponsored amendments inserting new anti-Russian language in the resolution were approved in the 193-member body by a wide margin. The amended U.S. resolution also passed. (WP, 02.24.25)
  • The Kremlin praised what it called Washington’s “balanced position” on the war in Ukraine after the United States aligned twice with Russia in U.N. votes marking the full-scale invasion’s third anniversary. In a major policy shift, the U.S. opposed a European-backed resolution at the U.N. General Assembly on Feb. 24 that strongly criticized Russia over the war and reaffirmed Ukraine’s territorial integrity. That measure received 93 votes in favor, 18 against—including from the U.S., Russia, Belarus, North Korea and Sudan—and 65 abstentions. (MT, 02.25.25)
• Two of Trump’s top advisers declined to describe Russia as the aggressor in the war in Ukraine, as the administration seeks Putin’s support for a peace deal. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz both avoided direct answers in television interviews on Sunday, portraying the question as a distraction from Trump’s diplomacy. (Bloomberg, 02.23.25)
• [When asked to comment on Trump saying he wanted to propose to [Putin] and the head of China to cut the defense budgets in half] Putin told a Russian TV reporter on 02.24.25: “ I am not in a position to comment on how the People’s Republic of China would feel about this. The U.S. side tried different approaches regarding strategic offensive weapons and other critical matters. So, this is a matter for the People’s Republic of China to decide on. However, we could come to an agreement with the United States, we are not against it. I think this is a good idea: the United States would cut their spending by 50%, and we would cut ours by 50%. The People’s Republic of China could then join in if it wants to. We think this is a good proposal, and we are open to discussing it.”(Kremlin.ru, 02.24.25)
• Friedrich Merz of Germany said he now seeks security "independence" from the United States and expressed doubts about the future of NATO. The 69-year-old, who faces tough coalition talks after his party's first-place finish in Germany's parliamentary elections over the weekend, said on Feb. 24 that the country can't afford political paralysis at a time when Washington's foreign policy is shifting and the German economy is slumping. (RFE/RL, 02.24.25)
• U.K. PM Keir Starmer said Britain would raise its military spending to 2.5% of economic output by 2027, and to 3% during the next government’s term, which would mean by 2034 at the latest. (NYT, 02.25.25)
• Trump on Feb. 26 ruled out offering U.S. security guarantees or NATO membership for Ukraine. “I’m not going to make security guarantees beyond very much,” Trump said. “We’re going to have Europe do that,” Trump said. “Europe is their next-door neighbor, but we’re going to make sure everything goes well.” Asked what concessions would need to be made to end the war, he ruled out Ukrainian membership in NATO, again repeating Russia’s stance that the issue was behind its invasion. “NATO—you can forget about,” Trump said. “I think that’s probably the reason the whole thing started.” (Agence France-Presse, 02.27.25)
• Trump doubled down on his opposition to Ukraine joining the NATO military alliance as he prepares to host Zelenskyy at the White House on Feb. 28. “Look,” Mr. Trump said, “it’s not going to happen… I could be very nice and say, ’Oh, well, we’ll look into it.’ It’s just not going to happen.” (WT, 02.27.25)
• The U.S. has signaled it will maintain its military presence in Poland despite tensions over Ukraine, following a meeting between Trump and Polish President Andrzej Duda. Trump praised Poland’s commitment to increasing defense spending to 4.7% of GDP, though it falls short of his 5% target for NATO members. The White House reaffirmed the strong U.S.-Poland alliance in a post on X. Duda told reporters on Saturday there was “no fear that the American presence in Poland will decrease” and instead it should be “assumed that it will tighten.” The U.S. now has about 10,000 troops in Poland. (FT, 02.24.25)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• The leaders of China and Russia sought to project a unified front on the third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine amid U.S. overtures to Moscow seen as attempts to pry the two powers apart. In a phone call Feb. 24, Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Putin described the relationship between their countries as robust and immune to interventions from any third country—an apparent reference to the Trump administration's recent efforts to engage Moscow. (WSJ, 02.24.25)
  • China and Russia are immovable neighbors and "true friends who share weal and woe, support each other and develop together," Xi was quoted as saying by the Chinese Foreign Ministry. The ties between the two have unique strategic value and "aren't aimed at third parties, and aren't affected by any third parties," Xi said. "No matter how the international situation changes, China-Russia relations will advance calmly." (WSJ, 02.24.25)
  • Putin said Russia's development of ties with Beijing as a strategic choice made with a long-term perspective. He said it "will not be affected by transient events and will not be disrupted by external factors," according to the Chinese statement, which said the call was arranged at Putin's request. "The leaders particularly emphasized that the Russian-Chinese foreign-policy tie is the most important stabilizing factor in world affairs," according to the Kremlin. "It is strategic in nature, is not subject to external influence and is not directed against anyone." The Kremlin said that Putin informed his counterpart about the recent Russian-American contacts and that “the President of China expressed his support for the dialogue initiated between Russia and the United States.”  (WSJ, 02.24.25, RM, 02.24.25)
• Russian Security Council chief Sergei Shoigu arrived in Beijing Feb. 28. "During the one-day visit, [Shoigu] is scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Foreign Minister Wang Yi," TASS said. Russian state media said Shoigu would discuss security cooperation and regional issues with Chinese officials. His trip marks his second visit to China in three months. (MT/AFP, 02.28.25)
• Secretary of State Marco Rubio mapped out a U.S. strategy for managing Russia’s close relationship with China, saying Washington wants to dilute ties without sowing division between the nuclear-armed neighbors. “I don’t know if we’ll ever be successful completely at peeling them off of a relationship with the Chinese,” Rubio told conservative media outlet Breitbart News. “I also don’t think having China and Russia at each other’s neck is good for global stability because they’re both nuclear powers.” (Bloomberg, 02.27.25)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms

• No significant developments.

Counterterrorism:

• Putin told the FSB board: “the FSB needs to continue the system-wide work across all specialized areas, primarily, to fight international terrorism. Notably, the number of terrorist crimes has grown over the past year… The FSB, other departments and law enforcement agencies, in coordination with the National Anti-Terrorism Committee, must use their available powers and resources as effectively as possible. Focus must be placed on preventive measures, increasing the anti-terrorist protection of military and industrial facilities, life support systems, public facilities, as well as energy and transport infrastructure.” (Kremlin.ru, 02.27.25)

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• Russia has its own self-driving technology, a search engine to rival Google, and voice assistants and smart speakers that are better conversationalists than Alexa or Siri. But it has no generative neural networks that can compete with the latest versions of ChatGPT or surprise everyone like China’s DeepSeek. (Bell, 02.28.25)

Energy exports from CIS:

• U.S. oil producers are not going to rush back into Russia following any peace agreement between Moscow and Kyiv because they have been badly burnt in the past, according to U.S. shale magnate Harold Hamm. The Continental Resources’ founder and prominent donor to Trump’s election campaign told the Financial Times that Russia had been a tough place to work for decades and he was thankful he had not followed others who ploughed money into the world’s third-largest oil producing nation. “A lot of people lost a whole lot of money over there. I think they’re going to be very reticent to want to go back. Once in a while, peace breaks out over there, but not very often,” said Hamm in an interview. (FT, 02.22.25)
  • Analysts say returning may be easier for smaller Western companies that provide services like hydraulic fracturing and other technical support. SLB, the former Schlumberger, is one of the largest such companies and continues to work in Russia, saying it is in compliance with sanctions. (NYT, 02.23.25) 
  • Of all large Western energy companies, TotalEnergies of France seems best placed to return to business as normal in Russia, if the political situation permits. The company wrote off $14.8 billion on its Russian business in 2022, but it has continued to import liquefied natural gas from a facility called Yamal that it helped develop in the Russian Arctic with Novatek, a Russian gas company in which the French company owns a 19% stake. (NYT, 02.23.25) 
• About 51 million barrels of crude has been shipped from Russia’s Pacific ports since the latest round of U.S. sanctions on Jan. 10, the tracking data show. Fewer than 39 million barrels have been delivered in the same period and almost one-quarter of those were lifted before the sanctions came into effect. About 9 million barrels remain on tankers that have been idle for at least a week. With much longer delivery times, the impact on flows from western ports is less clear. (Bloomberg, 02.25.25)
• China's oil imports from Russia rose to 2.4 million barrels per day last year, per IEA data. India's increase has been stunning, rising from roughly 100,000 barrels per day in 2021 to roughly 2 million in 2023 and 2024, per IEA. (Axios, 02.24.25)
• India’s imports of crude oil from Russia slumped this month to the lowest level since January 2023, according to data analytics company Kpler, underlining how stringent U.S. sanctions have disrupted supply chains. India’s imports from Russia fell 14.9% from a month earlier to an average of about 1.4 million barrels a day in February, the data showed. Shipments by its second-biggest supplier Iraq, however, jumped 8.3%, while Saudi Arabia sent 0.7% less oil than last month, the figures showed. (Bloomberg, 02.28.25)
• The Russian government has extended a ban on gasoline exports through Aug. 31. According to a statement published on the Cabinet of Ministers’ Telegram channel, the decree has already been signed. (Meduza, 02.27.25)
• Gazprom, Russia's most profitable company before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, lost $7 billion in 2023, its first loss in a quarter-century due to its plummeting European market share. Gazprom showed revenue growth in early 2024 but reported losses in the third quarter, a trend some analysts said may continue as the company struggles to find new foreign customers. Most of its gas is now sold domestically at a discounted rate. (WP, 02.23.25)
• Some German industries in the east of the country are already planning for the time when Russian gas returns to Europe encouraged by the efforts of U.S. Trump to end the war in Ukraine. For Christian Günther, head of the one of the biggest chemical industrial sites in Germany the only way to revive sectors like his is to get hold of cheap Russian gas again. If Europe is expected to help finance Ukraine’s recovery in future, Germany needs to be economically strong to contribute, he said in an interview in Leuna. (Bloomberg, 02.28.25)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• Trump said Feb. 24 that he and Russian leader Putin are discussing "major" economic deals as part of discussions on ending the war started by Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. "I am in serious discussions with Putin concerning the ending of the War, and also major Economic Development transactions which will take place between the United States and Russia. Talks are proceeding very well!" Trump posted on his Truth Social platform. (MT/AFP, 02.24.25)

• Russia is ready to cooperate with Washington on developing rare-earth elements that the U.S. needs, the Kremlin said. Putin told a Russian TV reporter on 02.24.25: “Rare and rare-earth metals are crucial resources for modern industries. So far, we have not done enough in this area, and we need to do more. The purpose of the meeting today was to direct administrative resources to developing this sector in the initial phase. By the way, we would be open to cooperation with our American partners—and when I say “partners” I mean not only administrative and government agencies but also private companies—as long as they show interest in working together… If the U.S. companies come to work in Russia, it will also benefit them greatly, because the companies will turn decent profit, and the corresponding amounts of aluminum will be supplied to their domestic market at absolutely acceptable market prices.”(Kremlin.ru, 02.24.25, Bloomberg, 02.25.25)

  • Even before the invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. exported goods to Russia worth just over $6 billion, roughly the same as U.S. exports to Egypt. (WSJ, 02.25.25)
• U.S. and Russian officials have identified the Arctic as a possible area for economic cooperation, according to people familiar with the situation, part of the broader detente Trump is pursuing with Moscow. Discussions have included natural resources exploration and trade routes, said the people, who asked not to be identified as the discussions are private and at an early stage. Cooperation over energy exploration is also seen as a goal by the U.S., one of the people said. (Bloomberg, 02.26.25)
• Russia proposed resuming direct flights with the U.S. during bilateral talks in Istanbul on Feb. 27, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry. The discussions also addressed resolving financial and property disputes affecting diplomatic missions, including the return of six Russian properties seized by the U.S. between 2016 and 2018. Both sides emphasized the need for practical steps to improve bilateral relations. (Meduza, 02.28.25)
• Russia’s newest envoy has made his opening gambit: offer up the prospect of lucrative business deals to Elon Musk and Trump. Kirill Dmitriev launched his mission this week, posting on X platform for the first time in more than a decade to declare U.S.-Russia cooperation was “key to address world challenges.” Then he followed up with a video graphic depicting a joint mission to Mars with the U.S. and Saudi Arabia on what appears to be one of Musk’s SpaceX rockets. (Bloomberg, 02.27.25)
  • Putin appointed Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) CEO Kirill Dmitriev as Special Presidential Representative for Investment and Economic Cooperation with Foreign Countries on Feb. 23. (ISW, 02.23.25)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• In his remarks to the FSB board Putin praised early efforts by Trump to ease years of strained ties as officials held talks to restore staffing at diplomatic missions in their countries. “The first contacts with the new American administration give us some hope,” Putin. He highlighted what he called Trump’s “pragmatism” and warned that “We realize that not everyone is happy to see Russia-U.S. contacts resume.” “We realize that not everyone is happy to see Russia-U.S. contacts resume. A portion of Western elites are still committed to maintaining instability in the world, and these forces will try to disrupt or to compromise the newly resumed dialogue. You and I see this. We need to keep this in mind and leverage every possibility offered by diplomacy and special services to thwart such attempts,” he said. (Bloomberg, Kremlin.ru, 02.27.25) One would struggle to recall whether and when Putin has previously tasked FSB with protecting U.S.-Russian relations from being disrupted.
• Russian and U.S. officials met in Istanbul on Feb. 27 to discuss embassy-related issues as part of efforts to stabilize ties, Russian news agencies reported. (MT/AFP, 02.27.25)
  • The U.S. State Department described the Feb. 27 U.S.-Russia talks in Istanbul as “constructive,” with both sides identifying initial steps to stabilize diplomatic mission operations. The U.S. delegation, led by Deputy Assistant Secretary Sonata Coulter, raised concerns about banking access and embassy staffing, while Russia’s delegation was headed by Aleksandr Darchiyev. Both sides agreed to meet again soon, though the date and location remain undecided. (Meduza, 02.28.25)
  • Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov and Trump both poured cold water on reports that Trump would attend the May 9 Victory Day parade in Moscow. The French news magazine Le Point, citing its own sources, reported Feb. 28 night that Trump had accepted an invitation to attend the military parade on Moscow's Red Square. When asked about the trip by reporters, Trump replied: "No, no I am not." (MT/AFP, 02.22.25)
• The U.S. has approved Alexander Darchiyev as Russia’s new ambassador to Washington, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced. The approval came during talks in Istanbul, and Darchiyev is expected to assume his post soon. He replaces Anatoly Antonov, who served as ambassador from 2017 to 2024. (Meduza, 02.28.25)
• The Kremlin has advised Russian state-run media outlets to avoid excessive praise of Trump and instead highlight Putin’s diplomatic skills, the independent Vyorstka news outlet reported. (MT/AFP, 02.28.25)⁵

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia is borrowing at the highest volumes on the domestic market since the start of the war in Ukraine as signs of a thaw in U.S. relations boost demand for local assets. The Finance Ministry’s recent placements at weekly federal bond, or OFZ, auctions have been the largest since at least the start of 2022. In the last three sales, the government sold at face value 608 billion rubles ($6.9 billion) via fixed-coupon bonds, 60% of the planned volume for the entire first quarter. (Bloomberg, 02.27.25)
• Russia’s Central Bank announced Feb. 27 that the full-scale launch of the country’s blockchain-based “Digital Ruble” has been postponed indefinitely. (MT/AFP, 02.27.25)
• The Rosatom State Corporation, which operates the Northern Sea Route, has summed up the results for the past year. In 2024, specialists from the Main Directorate of the Northern Sea Route issued 1,312 permits for navigation in the NSR waters (previously, a maximum of 1,228 were issued per year), which indicates a continuing increase in shipping activity. The total volume of cargo transportation along the Northern Sea Route reached 37.9 million tons, exceeding the 2023 figures by more than 1.6 million tons, but significantly lagging behind the planned figure. (Bellona, February 2025)
• Multiple people were arrested in cities across Russia as they paid tribute to the late opposition figure Boris Nemtsov on Feb. 27, the 10th anniversary of his assassination near the Kremlin. (MT/AFP, 02.27.25)
• In Feb. 2025, the mood of Russians improved slightly compared to the end of last: the majority of respondents (68%) were in a normal, even state in recent days. After a slight decline at the end of last year, there is a slight increase in the proportion of Russians who believe that things in the country are going in the right direction— up to 73% (up 6 percentage points compared to December last year). At the same time, over the past months, the number of those who say that the country is moving along the wrong path has hardly changed—16%. The poll shows approval of Putin went from 87% in January to 88% in February. (Levada, 02.27.25)
• More than half of Russians believe the ongoing war in Ukraine has negatively affected their daily lives, according to a new survey by the independent research project Chronicles. The poll, conducted in Feb. 2025, said that 54% of respondents reported adverse effects from the conflict, while only 9% said it had improved their lives. Another 32% said they had not noticed any significant impact. (MT/AFP, 02.27.25)

Defense and aerospace:

•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• The purchasing director of Russia’s nationalized pasta manufacturer Makfa was arrested on suspicion of bribery, Russian news agencies reported Feb. 27, citing anonymous law enforcement sources. (MT/AFP, 02.27.25)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto met Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu in Jakarta, as the Kremlin seeks support from Southeast Asia’s largest economy for security cooperation. The two held talks Feb. 25 on matters including defense issues, (Bloomberg, 02.25.25)
• The Kremlin on Feb. 27 criticized a one-year prison sentence for Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik as a "political" decision that could have "negative consequences" for the region. (MT/AFP, 02.27.25)
• Two French scientists admitted to carrying out an attack on the Russian consulate in Marseille using improvised explosive devices. French police arrested the men just hours after three plastic soda bottles—two of which exploded—were thrown into the consulate’s gardens. According to La Provence, the suspects, described as an engineer and a chemist in their 50s and 40s, work for the Paris-based French National Center for Scientific Research. (MT/AFP, 02.26.25)
• A Russian judge on Feb. 24 upheld a three-year prison sentence for French national Laurent Vinatier, one of several Westerners jailed by Russia since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Vinatier, a 48-year-old researcher working for a Swiss conflict mediation NGO, was arrested in Moscow in June and charged with gathering information on Russia's military without being registered as a "foreign agent," a crime punishable by up to five years in prison. (MT/AFP, 02.24.25)
• Romanian prosecutors have launched criminal proceedings against the pro-Russian candidate who won the first round of last year’s presidential election that was later cancelled due to alleged meddling by Moscow. Far-right politician Călin Georgescu, who was picked up by police in the capital Bucharest as he was on his way to register for the May rerun of the vote, faces charges including incitement to act against the constitutional order, spreading false information and establishing a fascist organization, prosecutors said on Feb. 26. (FT, 02.26.25)
• The former leader of Reform U.K. in Wales appeared in court on Feb. 24 accused of accepting bribes in exchange for making statements in the European parliament that would benefit Russia. Nathan Gill is facing eight counts of bribery and one of conspiracy to commit bribery. The court heard he allegedly received money from former Ukrainian politician Oleg Voloshyn to make statements about events in the country that were supportive of Russia’s narrative, according to the Press Association. (FT, 02.24.25)

Ukraine:

• On Feb. 24 Trump expressed hope for an agreement with Kyiv on what he called “the vital ‘Critical Minerals and Rare-Earths Deal,’” in which he has asked Ukraine to sign over the rights to 50% of its mineral wealth to “recoup” U.S. money spent on Ukraine’s defense. (WP, 02.24.25)
• On Feb. 24 Zelenskyy called for a meeting with Trump as the United States continues to push a deal for access to his country's minerals, and said he would step down if it would bring peace to Ukraine or in exchange for NATO membership—sequences of events that remain unlikely. Zelenskyy said Sunday that discussion of Ukraine joining the alliance—and thus benefiting from its collective security guarantee—remains "on the table." “It doesn't matter who wants that or not, supports this idea or not," he said. (WP, 02.24.25)
• On Feb. 26 Kyiv was reported to have agreed terms with Washington on a minerals deal that Ukrainian officials hope will improve relations with the Trump administration and pave the way for a long-term U.S. security commitment. Ukrainian officials said Kyiv was ready to sign the agreement on jointly developing its mineral resources, including oil and gas, after the U.S. dropped demands for a right to $500 billion in potential revenue from the deal. The Ukrainian government is set to give its formal approval to the deal on Feb. 26. A Ukrainian official with knowledge of the matter said Zelenskyy was planning to travel to Washington on Feb. 28 to see Trump and formalize the deal. On Feb. 25, the U.S. president appeared to confirm his Ukrainian counterpart’s visit, saying: “I hear that [Zelenskyy is] coming on Feb. 28. Certainly it’s OK with me if he’d like to.” (FT, 02.26.25)⁶
• On Feb. 28, Trump and Vice President JD Vance berated Zelenskyy in an explosive televised Oval Office shouting match that ultimately blew up plans to sign a rare minerals deal and signaled a dramatic break in relations between two wartime allies. Trump and Vance castigated Zelenskyy for not being grateful enough for U.S. support in its war with Russia and sought to strong-arm him into making a peace deal on whatever terms the Americans dictated. (NYT, 02.28.25, NYT, 02.28.25, WSJ, 02.28.25)⁷
  • After a half-hour of generally polite discussion, the tone grew contentious after Trump said he was not aligned with either party to the conflict, but is rather aligned with the U.S. and “the good of the world.” Trump also said that he had a close relationship with Putin and thought that the Russian leader would stick to a peace deal if one were struck. Zelenskyy said that a U.S.-backed security guarantee was needed, and sought to explain to Vance that Ukraine had signed a number of agreements with Russia that Moscow had subsequently broken. Vance, and later Trump, said Zelenskyy hadn’t been grateful enough for the assistance his country received from the U.S. Vance asked Zelenskyy: “Do you think that it’s respectful to come to the Oval Office of the United States of America and attack the administration that is trying to prevent the destruction of your country?” (FT, 02.28.25, NYT, 02.28.25, NYT, 02.28.25, WSJ, 02.28.25, Sky News, 02.28.25)
  • “If you didn’t have our military equipment,” Ukraine would have lost the war in weeks, Trump said. He added: “You have to be thankful.” At one point, Trump told Zelenskyy he is “gambling with World War III.” Trump also told Zelenskyy that he had no cards, was in no position to make requests of the United States and suggested talks could derail unless attitudes changed. Zelenskyy said he had expressed gratitude to the American people. Zelenskyy urged Trump and Vance to visit Ukraine, but Vance dismissed trips there by foreign leaders as propaganda tours. (WSJ, 02.28.25, Sky News 02.28,.25, WP, 02.28.25)
  • In a post on social media after the meeting, Trump declared, “I have determined that President Zelenskyy is not ready for Peace if America is involved, because he feels our involvement gives him a big advantage in negotiations. I don’t want advantage, I want PEACE. He disrespected the United States of America in its cherished Oval Office. He can come back when he is ready for Peace.” (Meduza, 02.28.25)⁸
  • After leaving the White House, Zelenskyy issued a statement on social media thanking the United States and Trump. “Thank you America, thank you for your support, thank you for this visit,” he wrote, then he thanked Trump. While berating Zelenskyy earlier at the White House, Trump had told the Ukrainian president, “You’re not acting at all thankful.” (NYT, 02.28.25)
  • U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham told Fox News that Zelenskyy should use his scheduled interview with host Bret Baier to apologize and tell the world that he “screwed up big time.” Graham was among several senators who met with Zelenskyy before his meeting with the president. “I told him this morning, don’t take the bait, don’t let the media or anybody else get you into an argument with President Trump,” he said, adding, “Zelenskyy is going to have to fundamentally change or go.” (NYT, 02.28.25)
  • Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støere reaffirmed solidarity with Ukraine, with Støere criticizing Trump's remarks about Zelenskyy. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stressed the need for unwavering support for Ukraine. Johann Wadephul, Deputy of the Conservative Party in the German Parliament, condemned Trump's attacks on Zelenskyy, calling them a betrayal. Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini called for peace and an end to the war. (Reuters, 02.28.25)
  • Dmitri Medvedev, former Russian president and the current deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, has called the televised altercation between Trump and Zelenskyy a “dressing-down at the Oval Office.” (NYT, 02.28.25)
  • Kirill Dmitriev, chief of Russia's sovereign wealth fund and a lead negotiator in U.S.-Russian talks that took place earlier this month in Saudi Arabia, has commented on the Oval Office argument. “Historic,” Dmitriev tweeted after the diplomatic scandal, sharing a video of the heated exchange. Shortly thereafter, he also retweeted Elon Musk’s post with the same footage and the message, “Watch this carefully. Very important.” (Meduza, 02.28.25)
  • Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on Feb. 28 said Trump showed "restraint" by not hitting Zelenskyy during their shouting match in the White House. (MT/AFP, 02.28.25)
• Ukraine is believed to have deposits of at least 20 of the 50 minerals that the U.S. considers critical. These include lithium, graphite, titanium, uranium and rare earths, a collection of 17 elements that are essential for everything from cellphones to the defense industry. Titanium and lithium are potentially of greatest commercial interest. Before the full-scale war began in 2022, Ukraine produced 6% of the world's titanium, according to the Kyiv School of Economics. Ukraine is also home to around 3% of the world's deposits of lithium, which is used in batteries and considered "critical to the U.S. economy and national security" by the U.S. Geological Survey, with demand expected to dramatically increase over the coming decade. To make new mines commercially viable, the owners must conduct a series of new studies, said Denys Aloshyn, chief strategy officer for UkrLithiumMining, which is developing Ukraine's first lithium mine, in the central Kirovohrad region. "There's an illusion that it's someone taking a shovel and starting to dig money out of the ground," Aloshyn said. (WSJ, 02.26.25)
• In practice, the extent of Ukraine’s mineral patrimony is still largely a mystery. Though the country reports more than 20,000 surveyed mineral deposits and sites, only around 8,000 of them have been assessed as viable. Of these, fewer than half were being exploited before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago. (Politico.eu, 02.27.25) 
• The U.S. Geological Survey does not record Ukraine as having significant deposits of rare earths, a category of 17 elements with varied high-tech and industrial functions. The value of the Ukrainian mineral resources on the bargaining table remains uncertain. "The big problem is that to develop a new mine might take 10 years" or more, said Willy Shih, a Harvard economist who studies supply chains. "Is anyone going to do that in a Ukraine that doesn't have security guarantees? In other words, how investable is it really?" "Ukraine has significant mineral potential, but how large that potential is, we simply don't know," said Rod Eggert, deputy director of the Critical Materials Innovation Hub at the Colorado School of Mines. (WP, 02.28.25)
• Somewhere between 20% and 40% of Ukraine's deposits are critical minerals located in areas of the country currently under Russian occupation, according to George Ingall, a price analyst at Benchmark Minerals Intelligence. (WSJ, 02.26.25)
• The U.S.-Ukraine minerals agreement will include annexes on economic cooperation and security guarantees, according to Mikhail Podolyak, an advisor to the Ukrainian president’s office. Podolyak described the deal as a framework document paving the way for strategic partnership between the two countries, with specific annexes outlining investment programs and profit-sharing from joint mineral development. (Korrespondent, 02.28.25)
• Russia has proposed a deal to the U.S. granting access to minerals and valuable metals in occupied Ukrainian territories, according to NBC News. The offer, made during U.S.-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia, includes scenarios for U.S. access to resources in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. (Istories, 02.27.25)
• France is seeking access to Ukraine ‘s deposits of critical minerals, with negotiations already underway for months, the French defense minister said Feb. 27, indicating that the United States isn’t the only player. (AP, 02.27.24)
• Ukraine's economy will be hampered by Russia's attacks on its electricity network this year, but growth could strengthen in 2026 if an agreement to halt fighting is reached, according to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. The EBRD on Feb. 27 lowered its forecast for Ukraine's economic growth this year to 3.5% from 4.7% previously, citing repeated attacks on the country's power stations and electricity grid with missiles and explosive drones. However, the EBRD said growth could pick up to 5% in 2026 (WSJ, 02.27.25)
• Ukraine’s parliament passed a resolution on Feb. 25 saying Zelenskyy should remain in power as long as Russia’s war continues and new elections may only be held once peace has been achieved, prompting a reaction from Elon Musk. Lawmakers in Kyiv approved the resolution with 268 of 280 votes on Feb. 25. “Hold an election,” wrote Musk, a key ally of U.S. Trump, on social media platform X, in response to a post about the results of the parliament’s vote. (Bloomberg, 02.25.25)
• Putin told a Russian TV reporter on 02.24.25: “The person who currently stands at the helm of the Kyiv regime is becoming a toxic figure… His approval rating, be it four percent or any other number, does not matter all that much. What matters is that his approval ratings—and according to the information at our disposal this is objective data—is exactly half that of his closest potential political rival. I am referring to Zaluzhny, the former commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces who was sent, or should I say exiled, to London. His approval rating is twice as high as that of the current regime leader.” (Kremlin.ru, 02.24.25)
• Three years ago, support for members of a Ukrainian political party that advocated closer ties with Putin plunged to near zero. The party, called the Opposition Platform for Life, was banned. Now some of those pro-Russian politicians are attempting an unlikely comeback, inspired by Trump’s attacks on Ukraine’s current leadership and Russian demands, echoed by Trump, that the country hold elections. (NYT, 02.27.25)
• Relatives of the passengers killed in Russia’s 2014 downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 in Ukraine’s Donetsk region have appealed to Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, urging them to demand that Moscow admit responsibility for the disaster as part of any peace settlement, according to European Pravda. (Meduza, 02.27.25)
• Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko announced Feb. 28 that Petro Olenych, the deputy head of the Kyiv City Administration, and several other officials embroiled in a corruption investigation would be dismissed. (The Kyiv Independent, 02.28.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Azerbaijan has shut down the representative office of Russia's state-run media group in the country." "Representative office of Russia Today in Azerbaijan has been closed," foreign ministry spokesman Ayahan Hajizade told journalists, adding that "From now on, they may operate in Azerbaijan with only one correspondent." (MT/AFP, 02.24.25)

IV. Quotable and notable

• "There will be no economic normalization between the U.S. and Russia for years to come," said Maria Shagina, senior fellow focusing on economic sanctions at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a think tank. "Lifting sanctions isn't going to change the fact that the political and economic life in Russia has dramatically transformed." (WSJ, 02.25.25)
• Meghan O’Sullivan, the director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University’s Kennedy School, said the long-term costs of a [Trump] transactional foreign policy were not immediately noticeable. Transactional deals might feel like short-term wins for America, she said, but if the United States withdraws from its traditional role deterring aggression, it will “translate into a more dire economic situation, and globally, a less peaceful, less secure world, and this won’t be good for American prosperity.” (NYT, 02.27.25)

Footnotes

1. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and national security adviser Mike Waltz declined to describe Russia as the aggressor in the war in Ukraine, while U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff said that Russia should not necessarily be blamed for sparking the war, according to Bloomberg and NYPost.
2. According to AFP, the meltdown actually came after Trump said Ukraine would have to make "compromises" in a truce with Russia. But showing Trump pictures of war atrocities and referring to Putin, Zelenskyy said there should be "no compromises with a killer on our territory."
3. U.S. and Russian officials have identified the Arctic as a possible area for economic cooperation, according to Bloomberg, while Russia proposed resuming direct flights with the U.S. during bilateral talks in Istanbul on Feb. 27, according to Meduza. Putin appointed Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) CEO Kirill Dmitriev—who has been responsible for the economic track of the recent U.S.-Russian negotiations—as Special Presidential Representative for Investment and Economic Cooperation with Foreign Countries on Feb. 23, according to ISW. In his turn, when unveiling plans to sell "gold card" residency permits for $5 million each, Trump said Russian oligarchs may be eligible, according to RFE/RL. Analysts told NYT that returning to Russia may be easier for smaller Western companies that provide services like hydraulic fracturing and other technical support, such as America’s SLB, the former Schlumberger, which continues to work in Russia. “Of all large Western energy companies, TotalEnergies of France seems best placed to return to business as normal in Russia, if the political situation permits, according to NYT.
4. In the past 30 days, Russian forces made a gain of 427 square kilometers (165 square miles) in Ukraine, according to a Feb. 28, 2025, estimate by the Economist.
5. The U.S. has stationed criminal investigators in Europe to probe allegations that American defense items are being swiped along the pipeline to Ukraine. (Washington Times, 02.24.25)
6. The text of the draft deal can be accessed at FT’s site.
7. For a partial transcript of the dispute, see WP, 02.28.25.
8. White House officials have claimed to Fox News that Trump removed Zelenskyy from the meeting, that he did not leave on his own. according to the X account of Fox’s White House correspondent Jacqui Heinrich. (RM, 02.28.25)

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by the Ukrainian Presidential Office.