4 Things to Know

1. Many U.S. officials now privately concede that within a few months, Ukraine could be pushed into negotiations with Russia to end the war and that it could be forced to give up territory, WP reported on Nov. 26. Speaking publicly on that day, Anthony Blinken acknowledged that Ukraine might end up entering into talks with Russia sometime soon, according to NYT. A statement, which Blinken and his G-7 colleagues adopted after their meeting on Nov. 26, contained no explicit calls for peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Meanwhile, a Pew poll released one day before the G-7 event shows that Americans are split on whether the U.S. has a responsibility to help Ukraine defend itself from Russia’s invasion. Half of Americans say the U.S. is responsible, while 47% say it is not, according to Pew’s Nov. 12–17 poll.
2. Ukrainian intelligence believes that Russia is gearing up for a bold assault on the southern Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia, which is located 30 kilometers from the front, according to a Nov. 25 story in The Economist. East of Zaporizhzhia, in the Donetsk region, Russian forces are already moving faster than at any time since the early days of the invasion, according to the Economist. In the past month, Russia gained 269 square miles (696 square kilometers) while Ukraine controlled 200 square miles (520 square kilometers) of Russian land in the Kursk region as of Nov. 27, according to this U.K. newspaper’s analysis, which partially relies on ISW’s data. ISW itself assesses that Russian forces have gained 222 square miles (574 square kilometers) since Nov. 1, 2024, describing these advances as of “gradual and tactical nature.”  In addition to making net land gains, Russia has also expanded its aerials attacks, launching a record number of drones (188) at Ukraine on the night of Nov. 25–26.
3. The Kremlin is preparing to designate career diplomat Alexander Darchiev as the new Russian ambassador to the United States to replace Anatoly Antonov, who served in that position for seven years before leaving for Moscow, according to Kommersant’s multiple sources. The appointment is to occur in the foreseeable future, according to the daily. Darchiev's career in the Russian MFA system began in 1992. By the mid-1990s, he had become head of a subdepartment at the department of North America, and in 2003, he became the deputy director of that department. He has also served as an adviser to the Russian embassy in the United States as well as an adviser-envoy at the Russian embassy in Canada. 
4. Russia has advanced legislation this week recognizing the Taliban as a legitimate authority in Afghanistan. A group of Russian lawmakers has submitted a draft bill to the State Duma that would allow for the suspension of bans on organizations designated as terrorist in Russia, Meduza reported. Political analyst Pavel Sklyanchuk noted in an interview with this outlet that the bill could pave the way for removing the Taliban from the terrorist registry. In addition, head of Russia’s Federal Security Service Alexander Bortnikov called for working with the Taliban in combating drug and arms trafficking despite the militant movement currently being officially recognized as a terrorist organization in Russia, according to MT.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• The Institute of Physics and Power Engineering (IPPE), one of Russia’s leading nuclear reactor research centers, completed the removal of the research reactors’ spent nuclear fuel (SNF). (Russian Nuclear Security Update, 11.25.24)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• North Korea is reportedly expanding a key weapons facility likely used to supply Russia with ballistic missiles. Reuters, citing satellite imagery findings from a U.S.-based think tank, reported on Nov. 25 that North Korea is expanding its only weapons facility that assembles KN-23 short-range ballistic missiles, which Russia uses in Ukraine. (ISW, 11.25.24)
• Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov called for strengthening cooperation with South Korea on a trip to Seoul. South Koreans remain widely opposed to directly supplying arms to Ukraine, recent polls show, despite renewed international requests from Kyiv and allied capitals after North Korean troops were reported to be helping Russia. Most South Koreans viewed growing military ties between Pyongyang and Moscow as a threat, a Gallup Korea poll showed in October, but 82% opposed sending military aid, including arms. (Reuters, 11.27.24, Bloomberg, 11.27.24)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• When asked about the possibility of a visit by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to Moscow before the end of the year to sign the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement with the Russian Federation, Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Andrei Rudenko said. “Dates suitable for both leaders will be agreed upon through diplomatic channels,” he said. (MFA RF/TASS, 11.24.24)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Officials in Kyiv have launched an investigation into the killing of five Ukrainian prisoners of war near the town of Petrovka outside Donetsk. Ukraine’s Prosecutor General is currently investigating 53 criminal cases related to the alleged executions of 177 Ukrainian POWs.  (Meduza, 11.27.24)
• Ukraine returned 46 residents of the Kursk region to Russia. (Istories, 11.23.24)
• Shortly after the full-scale war began, Anton, then officer in the Russian nuclear forces, said he was given what he describes as a “criminal order” - to hold lectures with his troops using very specific written guidelines. “They said that Ukrainian civilians are combatants and should be destroyed!” he exclaims. “That’s a red line for me - it’s a war crime. I said I won’t spread this propaganda.” Senior officers reprimanded Anton by transferring him to a regular assault brigade in another part of the country. He was told he would be sent to war. (BBC, 11.26.24)
• About 80% of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure is damaged or destroyed. Without it having proper protection, and with temperatures falling below zero, Ukraine faces a punishing and deadly winter freeze. This week Russia launched the largest airstrikes in months against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Mustafa Nayyem, the head of the agency with the job of protecting critical infrastructure, resigned in June in protest at government failures, claiming that the project has been deliberately delayed by Kyiv’s refusal to release the funds allocated to carry it out. (Times, 11.23.24)
• Ukraine received 4.8 billion dollars from the United States within the PEACE project. The funds will support the implementation of reforms and the country's recovery, the official Telegram channel of Denys Shmyhal, Prime Minister of Ukraine, reports. (RBC.ua, 11.27.24)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• Ukrainian intelligence believes that Russia is gearing up for a bold assault on Zaporizhzhia city, 30 kilometers from the front. In the Donetsk region, Russia is moving faster than at any time since the early days of the invasion. Ukraine’s problems, meanwhile, are worsening mainly because of manpower issues. The army is long out of willing recruits, and its mobilization campaign is falling short, recruiting barely two-thirds of its target. A senior Ukrainian official says he is worried the situation may become irretrievable by the spring. (The Economist, 11.24.24)
• ISW assesses that Russian forces have gained 574 square kilometers since Nov. 1, 2024 — an average rate of 22 square kilometers per day. This is remarkably less than the 1,265 square kilometers per day that ISW assesses Russian forces were gaining in March 2022. (ISW, 11.27.24) 
  • The Economist estimates that Russia gained 696 square kilometers in Ukraine in the past month, while Ukraine controlled 520 square kilometers of Russian land in the Kursk region as of Nov. 27. (RM, 11.27.24)
    • Ukraine has lost over 40% of the territory in Russia's Kursk region that it rapidly seized in a surprise incursion in August as Russian forces have mounted waves of counterassaults, a senior Ukrainian military source has said. (RFE/RL, 11.23.24)
    • U.S. officials are concerned that as Ukraine shifted troops to the hard-fought Russian Kursk region — which Kyiv took in August — it is losing territory in its east at a faster clip. (WP, 11.26.24)
• On Nov. 22, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian forces advanced near Velyka Novosilka, Rozdolne, Maksymivka, Pustynka and Toretsk. (RM, 11.26.24)
• On Nov. 23, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian forces advanced near Hordiivka, Pushkine, Yuriyivka, Petrivka, Romanivka, Yelizavetivka, Rozdolne, Velyka Novosilka, Nelipivka, Kruhlyakivka, Illinka and Berestky. (RM, 11.26.24)
• On Nov. 24, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian forces occupied Katerynivka and Yuriyivka, and advanced near Novomlynsk, Stelmakhivka, Velyka Novosilka, Zhovte, Zorya, Novodmytrivka, Voznesenka, Illinka and Kurakhove. (RM, 11.26.24)
• On Nov. 25, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian forces advanced near Novomlynsk, Dalne, Kostiantynopolske, in Razdolne, Petrivka and Kurakhove while Ukrainian Defense Forces have completed the clearing of Kupyansk. (RM, 11.26.24)
• On Nov. 25, Russian forces were reported to have continued to make significant tactical advances in western Donetsk Oblast and are coming closer to enveloping Velyka Novosilka and advancing toward important Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) supplying the rest of western Donetsk Oblast and running into eastern Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Russian advances in western Donetsk Oblast may become operationally significant if the Russian command properly exploits these recent tactical successes, which is not a given. (ISW, 11.25.24)
• On Nov. 25, Ukraine's military said it struck an oil depot overnight in Russia's western Kaluga region and "a number of important targets" in two other Russian regions after Russia shelled the center of the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said in a statement on social media that the early morning attacks focused on Bryansk, Kaluga and Kursk. (RFE/RL, 11.25.24)
  • Two people were killed as a result of a Ukrainian strike on the Fatezhsky district in Russia’s Kursk region on Nov. 23, according to the Russian Investigative Committee's Main Military Investigative Directorate. (Meduza, 11.27.24)
• On Nov. 26, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian forces occupied Novoselydivka and Petrivka, and advanced near Novomlynsk, Zhovte, Pustynka, Pushkino, Rozdolne, Rozlyv, Veselyi Hai, Rivnopol, Sontsivka, Kruhlyakivka, Berestky and Kurakhove. (RM, 11.26.24)
• On the night of Nov. 25-26 Russian forces launched a record number of drones against Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched four Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 188 Shahed and other unspecified drones — likely referring to decoy drones — from Voronezh, Kursk, Oryol, Bryansk oblasts and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed all four Iskander-M missiles and 76 drones over Kyiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Vinnytsia, Chernivtsi, Ternopil, Rivne, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts as of 0900 local time on Nov. 26. The Ukrainian Air Force said that it had shot down 76 of the drones in the “massive attack” but that nearly all the rest had disappeared from radar. It was unclear how many of those drones had been intercepted by other means, such as electronic interference, and how many had struck targets. (ISW, 11.27.24, NYT, 11.26.24, Meduza, 11.26.24)
• On Nov. 26, the Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces with ATACMS missiles on the S-400 division in Lotarevka, Kursk Region, and the Kursk-Vostochny airfield. Russia’s military vowed to respond to the attacks. (Istories, 11.26.24, MT/AFP, 11.26.24)
  • The Russian defense ministry claimed that Ukraine had used more than a dozen U.S.-delivered missiles known as Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, to strike its territory twice, on Nov. 23 and Nov. 25. That followed a Ukrainian attack involving the same missiles last week, the first time Ukraine had used the longer-range weapons to strike in Russia since the United States granted permission earlier this month. (NYT, 11.27.24)
• On Nov. 26, Russia’s military replaced the commander of one of its six operational groups fighting in Ukraine. Lt. Gen. Alexander Sanchik was reportedly appointed acting commander of Russia’s “South” group of forces. Sanchik succeeds Col. Gen. Gennady Anashkin. Pro-war military bloggers reported over the weekend that Anashkin was removed after misleading his superiors about settlements he allegedly claimed were captured near the Ukrainian town of Siversk. Anashkin was then appointed to head Russia’s Frunze Military Academy. (MT/AFP, 11.26.24)
• On Nov. 27, a Russian drone strike on Kyiv wounded two people and damaged a nonresidential building, the mayor of Ukraine's capital, Vitali Klitschko, said on his Telegram channel. Ukraine's air force, meanwhile, said that Russia launched 89 drones at eight regions -- Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskiy and Mykolayiv. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 36 of the attacking drones, while 48 were lost due to the jamming of their navigation systems by electronic means, the air force said on Telegram. Five other drones left the territory of Ukraine in the direction of Belarus and back to Russia, it said. (RFE/RL, 11.27.24)
• On Nov. 27, Russia's Defense Ministry said separately that its air defenses shot down 10 Ukrainian drones over the Rostov region and two off the Black Sea port of Sevastopol. (RFE/RL, 11.27.24)
• The Economist estimates 60,000-100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died so far. Perhaps a further 400,000 are too injured to fight on. Additionally, many tens of thousands of civilians are believed to have been killed. To quantify Ukraine’s losses since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, the Economist collected data on battle deaths from leaked or published reports by intelligence agencies, defense officials, researchers and open-source intelligence. (The Economist, 11.27.24) To visualize the estimate, please visit the hyperlink, which leads to the Economist story with three illustrative charts.
• For all the losses Russia has so far suffered in Ukraine — as many as 700,000 killed or wounded, according to U.K. military intelligence — Gen. Christopher Cavoli, NATO’s supreme commander, warned last month that the Russian military would emerge from the war “stronger than it is today.” (FT, 11.25.24)
• Even with the long lead time, there is plenty for Ukraine to aim at with ATACMS. Russian airfields, ammo depots and training grounds are no longer safe as Ukraine chooses what to target. Hundreds of targets are now within reach of the newly authorized weapons, which pack more punch than the long-range drones Ukraine has been using to strike deep inside Russia. ISW has compiled a map of some 200 military targets in range of ATACMS, which has a range of up to 190 miles, and Storm Shadow, which can hit about 155 miles. (WSJ, 11.24.24)
• Russia’s armed forces have recruited hundreds of Yemeni men to fight in Ukraine, brought by a shadowy trafficking operation that highlights the growing links between Moscow and the Houthi rebel group. (FT, 11.24.24)
• Russia's Investigative Committee announced Nov. 26 that it had opened a criminal case against James Scott Rhys Anderson, a British citizen accused of committing terrorism and mercenary activities. Anderson, who is alleged to have fought for Ukraine's International Legion, was detained in Russia's Kursk region after crossing the border in mid-November. (RFE/RL, 11.26.24)
• The so-called Supreme Court in Ukraine's Russian-occupied Donetsk region has sentenced Mamuka Mamulashvili, leader of the Georgian Legion, to 23 years in prison in absentia. (RFE/RL, 11.26.24)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• The U.K. government recently supplied Ukraine with dozens more Storm Shadow cruise missiles, according to people familiar with the matter, a first under Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who has pledged continued support for the country’s war against Russia. (Bloomberg, 11.26.24)
• White House national security spokesperson John Kirby confirmed during a press briefing on Nov. 25 that the Biden administration has formally authorized the Ukrainian military to fire U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles at targets inside Russia. (Meduza, 11.26.24)
• Ukraine's European allies, struggling to produce enough weapons for Kyiv's war effort, are pioneering a new method: giving Ukrainians money to do it themselves. In the new approach, Europeans are financing Ukrainian government contracts with cash-strapped Ukrainian arms makers to produce equipment for the country's armed forces, including long-range missiles and drones that can strike Russian territory. Kyiv tells its allies which companies to work with and armaments to buy, and the Europeans vet the producers independently before agreeing to deals. (WSJ, 11.26.24)
  • “More money for Ukraine seems inevitable,” wrote Eurasia Group’s Mujtaba Rahman in a recent note. “The EU’s moment of truth is fast approaching.” (FT, 11.27.24)
• Top diplomats from the Group of 7 nations tried to project unity on Ukraine while discussing differences over Israel and anticipating the return of Donald Trump. On the issue of Ukraine and Russia, the diplomats used clearer language, saying, “Our support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence will remain unwavering. The communiqué also denounced China’s efforts to help Russia rebuild its defense industry and North Korea’s military aid to Russia. (NYT, 11.27.24)
• The share of Americans who think America is providing too much assistance to Ukraine has decreased from 31% in November 2023 to 27% in November 2024, according to Pew. The same period saw the share of Americans who think America is providing enough assistance to Ukraine decrease from 29% to 25%. The share of those who think U.S. support as “about right” remained constant at 18%. Among Republicans, 42% now say the U.S. is providing too much support. By comparison, among Democrats, just 13% now say the country is providing too much support to Ukraine. Americans are also split on whether the U.S. has a responsibility to help Ukraine defend itself from Russia’s invasion. Half of Americans say the U.S. has this responsibility, while 47% say it does not, according to Pew’s Nov. 12-17 poll. (Pew, 11.25.24, RM, 11.25.24)
• Some 42% of Americans now say Russia’s invasion of Ukraine poses a major threat to U.S. interest, compared to 50% in 2022, according to Pew.  Since 2023, Republicans have been far less likely than Democrats to view the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a threat to the U.S. But the share saying this is now at a low point: Today, 19% say this, down from 26% in July. About four-in-ten Democrats (42%) see Russia’s invasion as a major threat, according to Pew’s Nov. 12-17 poll. (Pew, 11.25.24)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• The British government on Nov. 25 announced sanctions on 30 ships it claims are part of Russia's "shadow fleet," bringing the total number of vessels under U.K. restrictions to 73. Foreign Secretary David Lammy called the move the U.K.’s "largest sanctions package" yet against tankers and cargo ships used by Moscow to circumvent export and oil embargoes to fund its war against Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 11.25.24)
• Moscow added 30 British nationals to its entry ban list over the “reckless policies” and “anti-Russian activities” of the British government, Russia’s Foreign Ministry announced Nov. 26. (MT/AFP, 11.26.24)
• Russia has expelled Edward Prior Wilks, a second secretary in the Political Department of the British Embassy in Moscow, accusing him of espionage under diplomatic cover. (RFE/RL, 11.26.24)
• Polish authorities arrested a German citizen on charges of brokering and exporting dual-use goods to Russia. (Bloomberg, 11.27.24)
• The German authorities are closing the German bureau of the Russian state-run TV station Channel One, the network said Nov. 27. Correspondents Ivan Blagoy and Dmitry Volkov are reportedly required to leave the country by mid-December. (Meduza, 11.27.24)
• Unilever Plc exited Russia because it was losing control of the business there, said Chief Executive Hein Schumacher, citing growing complications stemming from the country’s response to Western sanctions imposed amid the war in Ukraine. (Bloomberg,11.27.24)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• Many U.S. officials now concede that within a few months, Ukraine could be pushed into negotiations with Russia to end the war and that it could be forced to give up territory. Biden's reversal of his previous policies on mines and missiles was intended in part to give Ukraine the strongest possible hand as it enters those potential talks. At the news conference after the meeting of G-7 Foreign Ministers, Secretary of State Antony Blinken acknowledged that Ukraine might end up entering into talks with Russia sometime soon, saying, “What we’re determined to do in the remainder of this administration is to do everything possible to ensure that Ukraine has what it needs to be able to, as I said, to fight through 2025 if necessary or, if there’s a negotiation, to be able to negotiate from a position of strength.” The statement, which the ministers adopted on Nov. 26, contained no explicit calls for peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. (NYT, 11.26.24, WP, 11.26.24, RM, 11.27.24)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said: “Judging by what has been happening on the battlefield, we have still a long way to go before we achieve a political and diplomatic solution for this crisis." “In Ukraine’s case, this deals with addressing the root causes of the conflict, which include the emergence of entrenched security threats for Russia along its western borders, including NATO’s eastward expansion, as well as recurrent and system-wide violations by the Kyiv regime of the rights of Russians. ... A political settlement must include the demilitarization and de-Nazification... [and] of course, any agreements will hinge upon recognizing the political and territorial reality as per the Constitution of Russia,” he said. (RG, 11.27.24)
• Russia opposes simply freezing the conflict in Ukraine because Moscow needs a "solid and long-term peace" that resolves the core reasons for the crisis, Putin's foreign intelligence chief said Nov. 26. Sergei Naryshkin, the head of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), said that Russia had the initiative on the battlefield. (Reuters, 11.27.24)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Fully replacing the U.S. military contribution to European defense is equivalent to about 0.3% of EU GDP. The U.K. and Europe “can afford” that, a European defense official says, although “it will be a particularly difficult decision because much of the equipment would have to be bought from the Americans.” (FT, 11.25.24)
• France signaled that it would be open to non-EU companies accessing about a third of a proposed defense procurement fund. One problem is the inefficiency of Europe’s fragmented defense industry. Across 11 main categories of major weapons systems — such as fighter aircraft, tanks and destroyers — the U.S. has 32 types of systems, while Europe maintains 172, according to McKinsey. (FT, 11.25.24)
• Czech intelligence chief Michal Koudelka said, “Russia would spend perhaps the next 10 to 15 years recovering from its huge human and economic losses and preparing for the next target, which is central and eastern Europe.” (Bloomberg, 11.26.24)
• One proposal that has circulated among conservative Republicans in the U.S., called “dormant NATO” by analyst Sumantra Maitra, argues the U.S. should provide NATO with logistics support “as a last resort,” leaving the rest to Europe. Another, contained in the Heritage Foundation’s so-called Project 2025, said European NATO should field the “great majority of the conventional forces required to deter Russia” with the U.S. providing a nuclear deterrent and “select other capabilities.” (FT, 11.25.24)
• Poland is pushing Nordic and Baltic states to patrol their waters jointly against any Russian sabotage attempts, following the suspicious severing of two data cables last week. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Nov. 27 he was seeking to convince Baltic Sea countries that they share “the same sense of threat when it comes to Russia” to set up a “navy policing” force that would mirror NATO’s Baltic air patrols. (FT, 11.27.24)
• The U.K. military deployed around 60 personnel to help protect U.S. military bases in east England after a spate of mystery drone sightings. The U.K. forces are working with the U.S. Air Force as it seeks to understand why drones have been lingering over the bases during the past week, according to a U.K. military official. The U.K.'s Royal Air Force counter drone unit is assisting, using equipment that can jam unmanned aerial vehicles and track from where they are being flown. (WSJ, 11.27.24)
• On Nov. 21, Norwegian police arrested a security guard working at the U.S. embassy in Oslo on suspicion of espionage on behalf of Russia and Iran. According to Reuters, local officials said they confiscated a “large” amount of digital material. (Meduza, 11.23.24)
• German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said the deadly crash of a cargo plane in Lithuania on Nov. 25 could have been a "hybrid incident" with outside involvement. (RFE/RL, 11.25.24)
• Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel has written an autobiography in which she reaffirms her decision to push back against offering Ukraine future membership in NATO at a summit in 2008 despite criticism that such a move may have prevented Russia from invading Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 11.26.24)
• Yemen's Huthi rebels have attacked international shipping and fired on U.S. naval forces in the Red Sea for over a year. The Huthis' missile and drone attacks have disrupted a key global trade route and triggered retaliatory strikes by the United States and Britain. Now, U.S. media reports suggest that Russia has been helping the rebels pick their targets -- most of them commercial ships owned or operated by Western companies or vessels heading to or coming from Israel. (RFE/RL, 11.26.24)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• On Nov. 25, the first meeting of the Subcommission on Cooperation on the Northern Sea Route of the Russian-Chinese Commission for the Preparation of Regular Meetings of Heads of Government was held in St. Petersburg. On the Russian side, the subcommission was headed by Rosatom State Corporation Director General Alexey Likhachev, and on the Chinese side by Chinese Minister of Transport Liu Wei. (Rosatom, 11.26.24)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• On the day of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Anton says the nuclear weapons base he was serving at was put on full combat alert. “Before that, we had only exercises. But on the day the war started, the weapons were fully in place,” says the former officer in the Russian nuclear forces. “We were ready to launch the forces into the sea and air and, in theory, carry out a nuclear strike.” Anton says that combat alert was in place on day one of the war and claims his unit was “shut inside the base.” ... “We weren’t fighting in the war, we were just guarding the nuclear weapons.” The state of alert was cancelled, he adds, after two to three weeks. (BBC, 11.26.24)
• Russian officials say the updated 2020 Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence "effectively eliminates" the possibility of its defeat on the battlefield. (BBC, 11.26.24)
• Some Western defense planners are thinking back to the 1970s — the last time that NATO, in order to compensate for its underpowered conventional deterrence, made clear to Moscow that if attacked it would use nuclear weapons first. (FT, 11.25.24)

Counterterrorism:

• The head of Russia’s FSB has called for working with the Taliban in combating drug and arms trafficking despite the militant movement being officially recognized as a terrorist organization in the country, the Interfax news agency reported Nov. 26. FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov made the remarks during a meeting of intelligence and security agency chiefs from CIS member states. (MT/AFP, 11.26.24)
• A group of Russian lawmakers has submitted a draft bill to the State Duma that would allow for the suspension of bans on organizations designated as terrorist in Russia. Political analyst Pavel Sklyanchuk noted that this legislation could pave the way for removing the Taliban from the terrorist registry. (Meduza, 11.26.24)

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

• Turkey is in talks with the U.S. over a sanctions waiver that would allow the country to keep using Russia’s Gazprombank to pay for natural gas imports. Without an exemption, “we won’t be able to pay Russia,” Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar told reporters late Nov. 25. “If we can’t pay, we can’t buy the goods.” (Bloomberg, 11.25.24)
• Russia’s controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline lost the latest round of its legal fight against European Union gas market rules, in a largely symbolic court defeat for the now-shuttered project. Gazprom PJSC-controlled Nord Stream 2 should have foreseen that the bloc would use its powers to “extend the internal market rules to cover gas pipelines from third countries,” the General Court said in its re-examination of the case Nov. 27. (Bloomberg, 11.27.24)
• Russian oil-product exports rebounded in November to the highest in eight months as local refineries ramp up production with the end of autumn maintenance. Seaborne fuel shipments averaged about 2.3 million barrels a day in the first 20 days of the month. (Bloomberg, 11.27.24)
• The European Union is proposing to sanction several Chinese firms that it claims helped Russian companies develop attack drones that were deployed against Ukraine. The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, is also looking into imposing restrictions on additional Russian oil tankers to curb Moscow’s ability to circumvent existing restrictive measures, according to documents seen by Bloomberg. The proposals come as Group of Seven foreign ministers meeting in Italy this week are set to pledge “appropriate measures” against China and other countries that are supporting Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 11.25.24)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Moscow is preparing to approve the candidacy of a new Russian ambassador to the United States. As three informed sources told Kommersant, the most likely candidate for this post is the director of the North American Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry, former ambassador to Canada Alexander Darchiev. The Kremlin notes that the appointment will take place "in the foreseeable future." Darchiev's career in the MFA began in 1992. By the mid-1990s, he had become the head of the department of North America, and in 2003, the deputy director of the corresponding department. He took this position after five years as an adviser to the Russian embassy in the United States. The next time Darchiev found himself in Washington was in 2005, already as an adviser-envoy, and he stayed there until 2010. (Kommersant, 11.24.24)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Vladimir Potanin is Russia’s richest man with $31.9 billion, which represents a YTD change of $845 million, according to Bloomberg’s Billionaires Index. Potanin is ranked 52 in that index. (RM, 11.26.24)
• Russian metals giant Rusal announced Nov. 25 that it will reduce aluminum production by at least 6% due to surging raw material costs and declining domestic demand. The first phase of the cuts will slash output by 250,000 metric tons, the company said, without specifying how many additional reductions might follow or over what timeline. Rusal, founded by businessman Oleg Deripaska, said its profit margins are being squeezed by record-high alumina prices of $700 per ton. (MT/AFP, 11.25.24)
• Russia’s ruble hit a new 32-month low against the dollar, continuing a bout of weakening after the U.S. introduced fresh sanctions on the country’s financial sector last week. The ruble weakened more than 7% to about Rbs114.5 to the dollar Nov. 27, a level last seen in March 2022, shortly after the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.  The euro climbed past 120 rubles on the Forex market Nov. 27, reaching a level not seen since March 22, 2022. (Meduza, 11.27.24. FT, 11.27.24)
• An increase in HIV mortality was recorded in Russia in 2021 compared to 2010, while the incidence and mortality rates of HIV worldwide have decreased from 2010 to 2021, the number of new infections has fallen by almost 22% and the number of deaths by almost 40%, writes The Lancet. (Meduza, 11.26.24)
• Nikita Zhuravel, a Russian political prisoner who was beaten by the teenage son of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov while in pretrial detention, has been sentenced to 13 1/2 years in prison for high treason. (RFE/RL, 11.25.24)
• A court in Far East Russia’s Zabaikalsky region sentenced journalist Nika Novak to four years in prison for collaborating with a foreign organization, Russian media reported Nov. 26. Novak, the former editor-in-chief of the regional news outlet Zab.ru, was arrested in Moscow in December 2023. (MT/AFP, 11.26.24)
• Russian law enforcement authorities announced charges Nov. 25 against exiled YouTuber Ilya Varlamov for violating the country’s “foreign agent” laws. Varlamov, a popular travel blogger with over 5 million YouTube subscribers, has been a vocal critic of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 11.25.24)

Defense and aerospace:

• Experts say Russia’s Oreshnik ballistic missile appears to share many features with other missiles that Russia has developed. The Oreshnik is also capable of carrying nuclear weapons, at a time when Moscow has increased threats of nuclear war. The Pentagon says the Oreshnik is a tweak of Russia’s RS-26 Rubezh missile, an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that has been tested since 2011.The name Oreshnik means “hazelnut tree” — a potential reference to its sub-munitions, which resemble clusters of hazelnuts, said Timothy Wright, an expert on Russian missiles at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. (NYT, 11.27.24)
• Russia's United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) announced Nov. 25 the dismissal of the CEOs of its subsidiaries Yakovlev and Tupolev, amid challenges in ramping up domestic aircraft production under Western sanctions. “Andrei Boginsky, CEO of Yakovlev, and Konstantin Timofeev, Managing Director of Tupolev, are leaving their posts,” UAC said in a statement. Yakovlev, responsible for the SJ-100 — formerly the Sukhoi Superjet 100 — and Tupolev were recently merged into UAC under an order from Russian President Vladimir Putin. (MT/AFP, 11.25.24)
  • More than 90 passengers and crew were evacuated from a Russian Sukhoi passenger plane Nov. 24 after one of its engines caught fire while landing at an airport in southern Turkey, the Anadolou state news agency reported. (MT/AFP, 11.25.24)
• Mobilized resident of Pskov Vasily Grigoriev is challenging the Defense Ministry's decision to send him to the front after returning from captivity in Ukraine. The Geneva Convention directly prohibits the use of former prisoners in combat (Article 117 of the Geneva Convention relative to the Treatment of Prisoners of War). However, the document does not stipulate the possibility of prisoner exchanges before the end of hostilities. (Istories, 11.27.24)
•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Putin on Nov. 25 extended a 400,000-ruble ($3,800) sign-on bonus, previously offered to new military recruits, to National Guard personnel enlisting for service in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 11.25.24)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico announced Nov. 27 that he will travel to Moscow on May 9 to attend the 80th anniversary commemorations of the Soviet victory in World War II.  (MT, 11.27.24)

Ukraine:

• Ukraine’s former commander-in-chief and current London ambassador, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, is creaming everyone else in a presidential election poll released Nov. 26 by the Social Monitoring Center. When combining first and second preferences in the poll, Zaluzhnyi would take 42% of votes in a presidential election, more than double Zelenskyy’s 22%. Spy chief Kyrylo Budanov received 18%, followed by former president Petro Poroshenko with 10%. (BNE, 11.27.24)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Putin arrived in Kazakhstan Nov. 27 for a two-day visit to participate in the CSTO summit. (MT, 11.27.24)
  • Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan will not take part in the summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in Astana on Nov. 28. This was stated by the assistant to the head of the Russian state Yuri Ushakov at a briefing on Nov. 26. (Korrespondent.net, 11.26.24)
• Georgia’s ruling party has nominated Mikheil Kavelashvili, a former Manchester City footballer turned ultranationalist firebrand, as its presidential candidate to replace the pro-EU incumbent. (FT, 11.27.24)

IV. Quotable and notable

• "The first weapons that Ukraine received from the United States came from a president who hates Ukraine," said Dmytro Kuleba, who served as Ukraine's foreign minister until September. He said that despite Trump's unpredictability, his presidency could usher in an era of positive change for Ukraine. (WP, 11.26.24)
• “Forest,” a Ukrainian battalion commander with the 65th brigade, says the men being sent from army headquarters are now mostly too old or unmotivated to be useful. All but a handful are over the age of 45. “I’m being sent guys, 50 plus, with doctors’ notes telling me they are too ill to serve,” he says. “At times it feels like I’m managing a day-care center rather than a combat unit.” (The Economist, 11.24.24)
• Kurt Volker, former U.S. ambassador to NATO and Trump’s former special representative for Ukraine negotiations, said: “Either he [Putin] stops the war or he doesn’t. You can’t satisfy him with this stratagem or that stratagem. He only understands force and when the force is aligned against him, then you have a chance of stopping the war. So just keep it simple and stay focused on that, and be prepared to build and show strength because that’s what Putin responds to.” (Meduza, 11.27.24)
• The new book by former Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany dismisses Putin as ''someone who was always on guard not to be treated badly, and always ready to dish out punishment, including power games with a dog and making others wait,'' a reference to her own fear of dogs, which he manipulated famously at one meeting in 2007, by bringing in a large black Labrador. ''You could find all this childish, reprehensible, you could shake your head at it,'' she writes. ''But that didn't make Russia disappear from the map.'' Russia, she says, ''with its nuclear arsenal, exists'' and remains ''an indispensable geopolitical factor.'' (NYT, 11.22.24)

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 11:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Photo by Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP.