6 Things to Know

1. Vladimir Putin publicly announced several changes he wishes to introduce to Russia’s 2020 Basic Principles of State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence (BPSPND) on Sept. 25. Chief among these are (1) any attack by a non-nuclear state, conventional or otherwise, supported by a nuclear-armed state, will be considered a direct attack on Russia by both (and permit the use of nuclear weapons in response); (2) that Russia may launch-on-warning in the event of “the arrival of reliable data on a launch of ballistic missiles attacking the territory of the Russian Federation and/or its allies,” but also if Russia “receive[s] reliable information about a massive launch of air and space attack weapons and their crossing our state border;” including “strategic and tactical aircraft, cruise missiles, UAVs, hypersonic and other aircraft;” and (3) Russia may use nuclear weapons in defense of aggression against the Russia-Belarus Union State, regardless of whether this aggression is accompanied by use of WMD. The intent of Putin’s announcement appears aimed at deterring Ukraine’s Western allies from granting Kyiv the capability to respond in-kind to Russian missile and glide bomb attacks; especially those aimed at non-military targets.
2. Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented his “victory plan” for the war in Ukraine to Joe Biden on Sept. 26. While little has been made public about the plan’s details, the Kyiv Independent reported that it includes a request for NATO membership for Ukraine in months, not years, and is sure to include U.S. and other allies' approval for Ukraine to use long-range weapons for deep strikes inside Russia. The plan also contains diplomatic and military components, according to head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office Andriy Yermak. During an address to the U.N. General Assembly, Zelenskyy said that Russia “can only be forced into peace,” which Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov later called a “fatal mistake,” MT/AFP reported. Zelenskyy also met with Vice President Kamala Harris and with Donald Trump, who this week suggested Ukraine should have made concessions to Putin before the February 2022 invasion and then insisted his relationship with Putin could bring a swift end to the war if he is elected, Bloomberg reported. Meanwhile, Moscow said it will not participate in a second peace summit planned by Ukraine for later this year, according to RFE/RL. 
3. U.S. intelligence agencies believe that Russia is likely to retaliate with greater force against the United States and its coalition partners, possibly with lethal attacks, if they agree to give the Ukrainians permission to use their long-range missiles for deep strikes inside Russia, NYT reported. As the debate continued this week among Ukraine’s Western allies, officials interviewed by WP said that the Ukrainians had expected Joe Biden to have already granted permission by now. 
4. Russia is making plans to attack Ukraine's nuclear power plants ahead of winter, Zelenskyy warned during his Sept. 25 speech to the U.N., WP reported. Zelenskyy said that Ukrainian intelligence has found that Russia is scanning the country's nuclear infrastructure by satellite. "Any critical incident in the energy system could lead to a nuclear disaster, a day like that must never come," Zelenskyy said, according to MT/AFP.
5. Russia has made fresh gains in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region this week. Moscow’s forces captured the town of Ukrainsk near the logistical hub of Pokrovsk, and looked closer to encircling Vulhedar and Kurakove, which, if taken, would allow Russia to encircle and take Pokrovsk, severing Ukraine’s main supply line to the region according to FT and Ukrainian group DeepState. FT reported that Russian forces have moved within 8 kilometers of Pokrovsk and just 4 kilometers of Myrnohrad. On each of two days last week, the Ukrainian military reported more than 200 clashes between the two sides—the highest such numbers in many months, according to DeepState,
6. Russia plans to spend 6.2% of GDP on defense in 2025 and sees only slight declines in the following two years as Putin’s war on Ukraine shows no sign of ending, Bloomberg reported. Draft three-year budget proposals seen by Bloomberg News show the government intends to increase defense spending to 13.2 trillion rubles ($142 billion) in 2025 from 10.4 trillion rubles projected for this year. Additionally, the Kremlin is planning to spend more than 40 trillion rubles ($431 billion) over six years to achieve social targets Putin set for his current presidential term, according to Bloomberg.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Russia is making plans to attack Ukraine's nuclear power plants ahead of winter, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned at the United Nations on Sept. 25. Zelenskyy said that Ukrainian intelligence has found that Russia is scanning the country's nuclear infrastructure by satellite. Russian President Vladimir Putin "does seem to be planning attacks on our nuclear power plants and the infrastructure, aiming to disconnect the plants from the power grid," Zelenskyy said. "Any critical incident in the energy system could lead to a nuclear disaster, a day like that must never come," Zelenskyy said. (WP, 09.25.24, MT/AFP, 09.25.24)
  • Ukraine’s recently-appointed foreign minister Andrii Sybiha warned earlier in the week of potential Russian targeting of nuclear power sites in a series of posts on X, formerly Twitter. In particular, the threat concerns “open distribution devices” at nuclear power plants and transmission substations, “critical for the safe operation of nuclear energy,” Sybiha added. (Bloomberg, 09.21.24)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• North Korea is looking at conducting a nuclear test to coincide with the November presidential election in the U.S., Yonhap News reported, citing comments the South’s spy agency made to lawmakers, adding that North Korea has amassed enough fissile material for nuclear weapons that run into the double digits. (Bloomberg, 09.26.24)
• On Sept. 24, Zelenskyy denounced Iran and North Korea as "accomplices" in Russia’s war against Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 09.24.24)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will hold talks with Putin during a visit to Russia next month to attend the BRICS summit, an Iranian government spokeswoman said Sept. 24. The visit to the BRICS summit in the Tatarstan capital of Kazan from Oct. 22 to 24 will be Pezeshkian's first to Russia since he took office in late July. (MT/AFP, 09.24.24)
• Pezeshkian said plans are underway to discuss a nuclear deal that has been stalled for years following a “positive” meeting with French leader Emmanuel Macron and ahead of talks with China’s foreign minister. (Bloomberg, 09.25.24)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Plans are in place to cover $20 billion of Ukraine’s estimated budget deficit next year, but the country needs a further $15 billion, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said. (NYT, 09.21.24)
• Biden and the leaders of more than 30 countries, along with the European Union, announced Sept. 25 that they had signed a joint declaration to establish a Marshall Plan-style initiative to support recovery and reconstruction in Ukraine—an effort that will be financed at least in part by frozen Russian assets. (NYT, 09.25.24)
• Zelenskyy was to meet executives from major energy companies at Bank of America’s New York headquarters on Sept. 23 to discuss Ukraine’s urgent need for power after the war with Russia plunged its energy sector into crisis. (Bloomberg, 09.23.24)
• Authorities in Moscow returned nine Ukrainian children with the help of Qatari mediators, Russia’s presidential commissioner for children's rights, Maria Lvova Belova, announced Sept. 26. (MT/AFP, 09.26.24)
• Jails controlled by Russia are deliberately withholding medical care for Ukrainian prisoners, with doctors in one prison even taking part in what it called "torture," a commission mandated by the U.N. rights council said. (MT/AFP, 09.23.24)
• At least 56 people from southwestern Russia’s Kursk region have been killed and 770 are still missing since Ukraine launched its surprise incursion early last month, Russian officials said Sept. 23. Russian Foreign Ministry special envoy for “crimes of the Kyiv regime,” Rodion Miroshnik, said another 266 people, including 11 children, were injured during the attacks between early August and the end of last week. (MT/AFP, 09.23.24)
• School buses in southwestern Russia’s Belgorod region will soon be outfitted with “electronic warfare systems” designed to counter drone attacks, the region’s governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said Sept. 26. (MT/AFP, 09.26.24)
• Animals at a zoo near Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine get nervous when they hear explosions in the distance, as Russian forces advance on the town. Many people have fled the area but there's nowhere for the animals to go. (RFE/RL, 09.25.24)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• On Sept. 27, Ukrainian authorities said at least three people were killed by a Russian strike against a Danube River port. Fourteen others, including a child, were also injured in the attack on Izmail, Odesa region Gov. Oleh Kiper said on Telegram Sept. 27. (Bloomberg, 09.27.24)
  • Romania said it scrambled four fighter jets last night after detecting groups of drones approaching Ukraine near its border. One may have entered the European Union nation’s airspace for a period of three minutes, though no impact was reported, according to the Romanian Defense Ministry. (Bloomberg, 09.27.24)
• On Sept. 27, Ukraine’s air defense forces said 24 out of 32 drones were shot down in three regions. In one of those, the central Dnipropetrovsk region, the national police said a missile had also hit a building used by the force in Zelenskyy’s home city of Kryvyi Rih, potentially leaving civilians under the rubble. (Bloomberg, 09.27.24)
• On Sept. 26, Russia's army said it had captured the Ukrainian town of Ukrainsk in the eastern Donetsk region, the latest in a series of territorial gains for Moscow's advancing forces. (MT/AFP, 09.26.24)
• On Sept. 26, at least nine people were wounded after the city of Zaporizhzhia was targeted for a fourth day in a row with glide bombs. (RFE/RL, 09.26.24)
• On Sept. 25, the number of people killed in a Russian attack on the eastern Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk rose to two people, regional Gov. Vadym Filashkin said. "As of 5:30 p.m. we know of 2 deaths in Kramatorsk. This afternoon, the Russians dropped three guided aerial bombs on the city. Two people died and at least 12 were injured. Three children are among the wounded," Filashkin said on Telegram. (RFE/RL, 09.25.24)
• On Sept. 24, Ukrainian air defenses shot down 66 of the 81 drones launched by Russia at 8 regions, the Ukrainian Air Force reported on Telegram, adding that Moscow also used four missiles during the early morning attack. The Russian strikes targeted the Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Cherkasy, Vinnytsya, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Sumy, and Mykolayiv regions, the air force said. Separately, regional authorities in the eastern region of Poltava said the Russian attack damaged energy infrastructure. Russia's Defense Ministry, meanwhile, said its air defenses destroyed 13 Ukrainian drones overnight over the Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk regions. (RFE/RL, 09.24.24)
• On Sept. 24, Russian strikes on a residential quarter of Ukraine's northeastern city of Kharkiv killed three civilians and wounded more than 30, Ukrainian officials said. "The targets of the Russian bombs were an apartment building, a bakery, a stadium. In other words, the everyday life of ordinary people," Zelenskyy said on social media. (MT/AFP, 09.24.24)
• On Sept. 23, the number of people injured in a late-night air strike on the Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia increased to 22, including two children, the State Emergency Services said. The air strike also damaged several high-rise apartment blocks, and the Ukrainian Interior Ministry said rescuers had to evacuate residents. "Two women remain in the hospital, their condition is estimated by doctors to be of moderate severity," the State Emergency Services said. (RFE/RL, 09.23.24)
• On Sept. 23, Russian troops edged closer to encircling Kyiv’s stronghold of Vuhledar in the eastern Donetsk region, according to the Ukrainian crowd-sourced tracking site DeepState. The advance is a part of Moscow’s wide-reaching offensive in eastern Ukraine that rapidly accelerated last month despite Ukraine’s surprise incursion into western Russia’s Kursk region. “The situation is difficult,” said Ukrainian military analyst Ivan Stupak, adding that the city could fall in “a matter of days” given “the pace of the advance.” (MT/AFP, 09.23.24)
• On Sept. 21, Ukraine said that it had struck two large ammunition depots deep inside Russia overnight. The strikes targeted ammunition depots near the towns of Toropets, in northwestern Russia, and Tikhoretsk, in the country’s southwest. The facilities are both more than 200 miles from Ukrainian-controlled territory, and one has been identified as a major storage facility for munitions Russia has acquired from North Korea. . (NYT, 09.21.24)
• On Sept. 21, Russian air strikes on the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv injured at least 21 people. The Ukrainian Interior Ministry says Russia attacked Ukraine's second-biggest city with KAB-type aerial glide bombs. The bombs fell late on Sept. 21 on the district of Shevchenkivskiy, north of the city center, Kharkiv Gov. Oleh Synyehubov said. Nine residential buildings sustained varying degrees of damage, he added. Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov, writing on Telegram, also said that 60 residents had been evacuated from one building that was heavily damaged. An 8-year-old and two 17-year-olds were among the wounded, he added. (RFE/RL, 09.22.24)
• On Sept. 21, Russian forces targeted the largest working coal mining enterprise in Ukraine and one of the largest in eastern Europe, located in the strategic frontline city of Pokrovsk, killing two employees and injuring two others. (FT, 09.24.24)
• Russia has made fresh gains in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy travelled to the U.S. to discuss plans to end the war. Moscow’s forces captured the town of Ukrainsk near the logistical hub of Pokrovsk, the Russian-installed Donetsk Gov. Denis Pushilin said on Sept. 24. A map compiled by Ukrainian group DeepState, which has ties to Ukraine’s defense ministry and monitors the battlefield, on Sept. 25 confirmed the advance as well as further territorial gains in the region. Russian forces also made gains and looked closer to encircling Vulhedar and Kurakove, two towns further south in that same area, according to DeepState. If the two towns fell it would allow Moscow’s forces to encircle and take Pokrovsk, severing Ukraine’s main supply line to the region. (FT, 09.25.24)
• Russian forces have moved within 8 kilometers of Pokrovsk and just 4 kilometers of Myrnohrad and unleashing the might of the Russian army on both logistical hubs in an attempt to take them before the end of the year. Some commanders and many soldiers see this as the cost of the Kursk offensive and a poor trade-off. If they fall, it would endanger the larger cities of Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk and significantly boost Russia’s strategic position in the region, Ukrainian commanders warned. (FT, 09.23.24)
• On each of two days last week, the Ukrainian military reported more than 200 clashes between the two sides—the highest such numbers in many months, according to DeepState, a group of analysts that maps the battlefield. (NYT, 09.26.24)
• Moscow has been secretly negotiating the delivery of anti-ship cruise missiles to Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militias, Reuters reported Sept. 24, citing anonymous Western and regional sources. “Russia is negotiating with the Houthis for the transfer of [P-800] Yakhont supersonic anti-ship missiles,” a Western intelligence told Reuters. The talks are reportedly brokered by Iran, though Tehran seeks to avoid direct involvement. A senior U.S. official suggested these negotiations are linked to Western actions in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 09.25.24)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• U.S. President Joe Biden welcomed Zelenskyy to the White House on Sept. 26 after announcing billions in military aid for Kyiv. Zelenskyy presented Biden with what he has referred to as his "victory plan" and again requested that the United States lift restrictions on the use of long-range weapons it has provided to strike deep inside Russia at military targets. (RFE/RL, 09.26.24)
  • Biden on Sept. 26 directed that Ukraine receive the remaining $5.5 billion worth of American weapons and equipment previously authorized by Congress. The administration’s announcement includes separate funding of about $2.4 billion through what is known as the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which will provide Ukraine with air defenses, drones and other weapons, and the expansion of the F-16 pilot-training program for 18 additional Ukrainian pilots. Biden also approved the transfer of the Joint Standoff Weapon, a long-range munition that will help Ukraine strike faraway Russian positions in its own territory and within Ukraine, as well as one Patriot missile-defense system. (WSJ, 09.26.24)
• U.S. intelligence agencies believe that Russia is likely to retaliate with greater force against the United States and its coalition partners, possibly with lethal attacks, if they agree to give the Ukrainians permission to employ U.S., British and French-supplied long-range missiles for strikes deep inside Russia, U.S. officials said. (NYT, 09.26.24)
  • In an example of the widening disconnect between Ukraine and the U.S. more than two years into Russia's invasion, the Ukrainians had expected Biden to have already granted permission by now for Ukraine to use the U.S.-supplied Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, and other longer-range munitions to reach targets such as strategic airfields deeper inside Russia, according to two officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity. (WP, 09.25.24) 
  • Andriy Yermak, head of Zelenskyy’s office, complained about the restrictions during an event Sept. 23 at the Council on Foreign Relations office in New York. “Ukraine has been fighting with one arm tied—untie it,” he demanded, “and let us deal really hard blows.” (WSJ, 09.24.24)
  • The progress of the war in Ukraine will not be “about a sole issue like long-range missiles,” U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has insisted, as he is expected to launch a new round of talks with the U.S. about whether to approve Kyiv’s use of such weapons in Russia. (FT, 09.25.24)
  • Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said Ukraine’s allies must stop dithering over helping the country fight back and allow the use of donated weapons on strikes inside Russia. (Bloomberg, 09.23.24)
  • U.K. Foreign Secretary David Lammy urged allies to show “fortitude” in their support of Ukraine, as he sought to play down the threat of escalation over an upcoming decision to allow the country to use western weapons inside Russia. (Bloomberg, 09.22.24)
• “The good news is Putin’s war has failed,” Biden said in his U.N. speech Sept. 24. “The world now has another choice to make: Will we sustain our support to help Ukraine win this war and preserve its freedom or walk away, let aggression be renewed and a nation be destroyed.” “I know my answer. We cannot grow weary. We cannot look away, and we will not let up on our support for Ukraine,” Biden added. (Bloomberg, 09.24.24)
• Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said he would approach Ukraine policy “differently” and marveled at Zelenskyy’s requests for security assistance. “I see Zelenskyy is here. I think Zelenskyy is the greatest salesman in history—every time he comes into the country, he walks away with $60 billion,” Trump said during a rally Sept. 23. (Bloomberg, 09.23.24)
• The U.S. told the European Union that it will contribute $20 billion to a massive Group of Seven-led Ukraine aid package if the bloc tweaks its Russian sanctions regime as planned to make it more predictable. Even if the EU doesn’t make the changes to its sanctions, the U.S. would still contribute to the planned $50 billion package, but with a lower amount. (Bloomberg, 09.26.24)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• The United States on Sept. 26 imposed sanctions on an alleged Russian money-laundering operation known as Cryptex that caters to cybercriminals around the world and unsealed indictments against two Russian nationals for their alleged involvement in the operation. (RFE/RL, 09.26.24)
• The Biden administration is proposing a rule to block the sale and import of Chinese- and Russian-made hardware and software for connected vehicles, potentially bolstering U.S. security against a hacking threat that the Commerce Department describes as “very real.” (Bloomberg, 09.23.24)
• Russia will be barred from next year's ceremony commemorating 80 years since the Red Army liberated the Nazi German death camp Auschwitz-Birkenau, the museum said Sept. 23. (MT/AFP, 09.23.24)
• The International Chess Federation (FIDE) has upheld a ban on Russian and Belarusian players imposed over Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, prompting an angry response from the Kremlin chiding FIDE for bowing to Western pressure. (RFE/RL, 09.23.24)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• Zelenskyy presented his “victory plan” to Biden at the White House on Sept. 26, a potentially pivotal moment in the long-running saga of Washington's support for Ukraine. Details have not yet been made public, however, according to information obtained by the Kyiv Independent on Sept. 22, Ukraine would ask for NATO membership within months, not years. Speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, head of the Presidential Office Andriy Yermak said that the five-point victory plan includes both diplomatic and military components. One element certain to be in the plan is the U.S. and other allies' approval for Ukraine to use long-range weapons including Western-provided missiles to target military sites deep inside Russia. A partial ceasefire is not expected to be part of the plan. (Kyiv Independent, 09.26.24) 
  • Western officials sought to lower expectations for the plan to end the war that Zelenskyy presented this week, saying they don’t see it ushering in a breakthrough to the conflict with Russia. One person familiar with Zelenskyy’s conversations with foreign leaders said there were no real surprises in the so-called “victory plan” and it wasn’t a major game-changer. Another official described it as a “wish list.” (Bloomberg, 09.24.24)
• Zelenskyy said Sept. 24 that Russia can only be forced into peace. Addressing a special U.N. Security Council session attended by a representative of Russia, Zelenskyy described Moscow as insincere in its calls for dialogue. "We know some in the world want to talk to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin," Zelenskyy said, "to possibly hear from him that he's upset because we are exercising our right to defend our people." Zelenskyy, clad in his trademark military fatigues, called such views "insanity." "Russia can only be forced into peace, and that is exactly what's needed—forcing Russia into peace," he said. (MT/AFP, 09.24.24)
  • “This war can’t simply fade away. This war can’t be calmed by talks,” Zelenskyy said Sept. 24. “Action is needed.” “If countries stopped supporting Russia, Putin’s invasion would soon come to an end,” he said. “If countries stopped supporting Ukraine, Ukraine could soon come to an end.” (WSJ, 09.24.24)
  • The Kremlin said Sept. 25 that "forcing" Russia into peace would be a "fatal mistake." Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that "such a position is a fatal mistake, a systemic mistake." "Russia is in favor of peace, but with the conditions that its stability is ensured and the objectives of the special military operation are fulfilled," he added. "Without achieving these goals, it is impossible to coerce Russia," Peskov said. (MT/AFP, 09.25.24)
• Zelenskyy urged the United Nations on Sept. 25 to prevent Russia from freezing the war as it is now, saying that the Kremlin “still wants even more land—more land, which is insane, and is seizing it day by day while wanting to destroy its neighbor.” (NYT, 09.25.24)
• In his U.N. address, Zelenskyy singled out China and Brazil as he questioned the "true interest" of countries that have been pressing Ukraine to negotiate with Russia. "Ukrainians will never accept—will never accept—why anyone in the world believes that such a brutal colonial past, which suits no one today, can be imposed on Ukraine now," Zelenskyy said, using the language of the Global South. (MT/AFP, 09.25.24)
  • Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told a Security Council session on Sept. 24 that diplomacy was the only solution in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 09.25.24)
• Moscow will not participate in a second peace summit planned by Ukraine for later this year, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Sept. 21. Zakharova said any peace agreement should reflect the “situation on the ground and geopolitical reality.” (RFE/RL, 09.22.24)
• Trump and Zelenskyy met Sept. 27 to discuss plans to resolve the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. After the meeting, Trump said their talk had not changed his stance that negotiations could bring an end to the war. “We both want to see this end and we both want to see a fair deal made,” Trump told Fox News. Trump insisted his relationship with Putin could bring a swift end to the war. “We have a very good relationship and I also, as you know, have a very good relationship with President Putin and I think if we win I think we’re going to get it resolved very quickly,” he said. (Bloomberg, 09.27.24)
  • On Sept. 25, Trump said Ukraine should have made concessions to Putin in the months before Russia's February 2022 attack. "Any deal—the worst deal—would’ve been better than what we have now," Trump said. "If they made a bad deal, it would’ve been much better. They would’ve given up a little bit and everybody would be living, and every building would be built, and every tower would be aging for another 2,000 years.” (RFE/RL, 09.25.24)
  • On Sept. 23, Trump said at an event in Pennsylvania: “If I win this election, the first thing I’m going to do is call up Zelenskyy and call up President Putin and I say, ‘You got to make a deal, this is crazy.’” (Bloomberg, 09.23.24)
  • “My feeling is that Trump doesn’t really know how to stop the war even if he might think he knows how,” Zelenskyy told the New Yorker in an interview published Sept. 22. Trump subsequently lashed out at Zelenskyy Sept. 25 for criticizing him and refusing to make a deal to end the conflict with Moscow: “We continue to give billions of dollars to a man who refuses to make a deal: Zelenskyy.” (Bloomberg, 09.23.24, Bloomberg, 09.25.24)
  • Zelenskyy also called Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, “too radical” and criticized the U.S. senator from Ohio for advocating for a demilitarized zone between Ukraine and Russia. “The idea that the world should end this war at Ukraine’s expense is unacceptable,” Zelenskyy said. “But I do not consider this concept of his ‘a plan,’ in any formal sense. This would be an awful idea, if a person were actually going to carry it out, to make Ukraine shoulder the costs of stopping the war by giving up its territories.” (Bloomberg, 09.23.24)
• In her meeting with Zelenskyy, Harris said that those who would have Ukraine trade territory for peace were supporting “proposals of surrender.” (NYT, 09.26.24)
• President Petr Pavel of the Czech Republic, a former senior NATO general who has been one of Ukraine’s most robust backers in its war with Russia, says he thinks it is time for Ukrainians and their supporters to face what he says is reality. “The most probable outcome of the war,” he said, “will be that a part of Ukrainian territory will be under Russian occupation, temporarily.” But, he added, that “temporary thing,” could last years. (NYT, 09.23.24)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Biden spent much of his U.N. speech focusing on his administration’s work defending Ukraine against Russia’s invasion, as he urged the United Nations to “stand firm against aggression.” He said he and Harris recognized Russia’s invasion as “an assault on everything this institution is supposed to stand for.” While describing his Ukraine policy as a success, Biden warned that Russia still has a path to victory. (WP, 09.24.24)
• Harris met with Zelenskyy on Sept. 26 at the White House, a sign that Biden’s administration is positioning her to take over a politically fraught diplomatic relationship if she wins the election in November. “The most important moments in our history have come when we stood up to aggressors like Putin,” Harris said, warning that the Russian leader would not stop with Ukraine, and would possibly even look into encroaching on NATO territory, if he succeeds in his campaign. (NYT, 09.26.24)
• While Zelenskyy spoke to the U.N. General Assembly, Putin did not; Russia was represented by its longtime foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov. Nor did China’s president, Xi Jinping, attend the annual event, meaning that the two other major powers confronting the United States during Biden’s presidency were barely heard. (NYT, 09.24.24)
• British Prime Minister Keir Starmer questioned “how Russia can show its face” at the United Nations in his first address to the U.N. Security Council Sept. 25. He said the security council “must recommit to the values that it sets out,” but warned that Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine meant “the greatest violation of the Charter in a generation has been committed by one of this Council’s permanent members.” (FT, 09.25.24)
• During a U.N. Security Council session Sept. 25 senior diplomats from the United States and Russia engaged in a brief but spirited argument. Dmitry Polyanskiy, Russia’s deputy ambassador to the U.N., in a speech accused the West of fomenting a global conflict and pushing the world to the brink of nuclear war. In response, Robert Wood, the U.S. deputy ambassador to the U.N. accused Russia of “nuclear saber rattling” and said its conduct was not “becoming of a permanent member of the Security Council.” (NYT, 09.25.24)
• United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres lamented what he called a world without rules and leveled thinly veiled accusations at Israel and Russia for trampling international law. (Bloomberg, 09.24.24)
• Japanese fighter jets fired warnings flares against a Russian military aircraft that Tokyo said repeatedly entered the country’s territorial airspace, in an unprecedented move against a foreign plane. A Russian IL-38 military patrol aircraft entered Japanese airspace three times near the northern island of Hokkaido on Sept. 23, the Defense Ministry in Tokyo said. (Bloomberg, 09.23.24)
• Finland will place a key NATO base less than 200 kilometers (125 miles) from its eastern border with Russia, in the southeastern town of Mikkeli, a move that Helsinki says will "send a message" to Moscow, the Finnish Defense Ministry said Sept. 27. (MT/AFP, 09.27.24)
• A Russian warship taking part in naval drills fired a warning shot at a Norwegian fishing boat in the Arctic Ocean earlier this month, the boat’s captain told local media on Sept. 23. The confrontation occurred on Sept. 12 in the Barents Sea between the anti-submarine destroyer Admiral Levchenko—one of Russia’s largest warships—and the Ragnhild Kristine, a small Norwegian fishing boat, according to Norwegian news outlet FriFagbevegelse. (MT/AFP, 09.24.24)
• The EU’s first defense commissioner wants to force countries to stockpile minimum levels of ammunition and other supplies, saying it is the best way to scale up the bloc’s undersized arms industry to ready it for war. Andrius Kubilius, who will take the job this year if the European parliament approves, said the EU must prepare for Russian attack within a few years. (FT, 09.22.24)
• Putin said Sept. 25 he expected his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan to attend a BRICS summit in Russia next month, after Turkey requested to join the group of emerging economies. Putin said he was due to meet Erdogan on Oct. 23, a day after the start of the summit in the Russian city of Kazan. (MT/AFP, 09.25.24)
• China launched an intercontinental ballistic missile on Sept. 25 into the Pacific Ocean in what appeared to be its first such public test in some four decades. The ICBM, which was carrying a dummy warhead, fell into “expected sea areas” in the Pacific Ocean, China’s Defense Ministry said, without specifying the exact location. The ministry said the launch, which was carried out by the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force, was part of routine annual training and wasn’t directed against any country or target. (Bloomberg, 09.25.24, WSJ, 09.26.24)
  • China’s newest nuclear-powered attack submarine sank in the spring, a major setback for one of the country’s priority weapons programs, U.S. officials said. The episode, which Chinese authorities scrambled to cover up and hasn’t previously been disclosed, occurred at a shipyard near Wuhan in late May or early June. (WSJ, 09.26.24)
• Balazs Orban, a senior aide to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban sparked an outcry at home after calling Ukraine’s decision to defend itself against Russia’s invasion “irresponsible” and suggested that Hungary wouldn’t have taken up arms. (Bloomberg, 09.26.24)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• No significant developments.

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• On Sept. 25, Putin publicly announced changes he wishes to introduce to Russia’s 2020 Basic Principles of State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence (BPSPND). These changes include at least four innovations which would lower the threshold of use of nuclear weapons by Russia. 
  • Putin proposed that the 2020 basic principles “expand the category of states and military alliances with respect to which nuclear deterrence is exercised and [to] expand the list of military threats to be neutralized by nuclear deterrence measures.” 
  • Putin proposed that the 2020 document should “regard an aggression against Russia from any non-nuclear state but involving or supported by any nuclear state as a joint attack against the Russian Federation.” Neither BPSPND’s nor the 2014 Russian military doctrine’s conditions for use of nuclear weapons included such a clause. At the same time, Putin’s Deputy at the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev did warn in January 2023 that "the defeat of a nuclear power in a conventional war may trigger a nuclear war.” He said so in reference to Jan. 20 meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meant to provide more military aid to Kyiv. Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov then claimed that Medvedev’s statement is “in full compliance with our nuclear doctrine.”* 
  • Putin proposed Russia’s launch-on-warning plan should be executed not only in the case of what BPSPND describes as “arrival of reliable data on a launch of ballistic missiles attacking the territory of the Russian Federation and/or its allies,” but also when “we receive reliable information about a massive launch of air and space attack weapons and their crossing our state border, including “strategic and tactical aircraft, cruise missiles, UAVs, hypersonic and other aircraft.” This was the first time that Putin in his nuclear rhetoric warned that use of drones by the adversary can prompt Russia to employ nuclear weapons.
  • While BPSPND has allowed use of nuclear weapons by Russia if “nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction” are used “against it and/or its allies,” Putin essentially proposes such use in the event of aggression against the Russia-Belarus Union State, regardless of whether this aggression is accompanied with use of WMD. In fact, in his Sept. 25 remarks Putin noted that Russia that can respond with nuclear weapons to an aggression against the union state, “when the enemy, using conventional weapons, creates a critical threat to our sovereignty.” It should be noted that this is not the first time Putin has suggested that a threat to Russia’s sovereignty could prompt him to pull the nuclear trigger, even though such a threat is not explicitly mentioned in either BPSPND or Russia’s 2014 military doctrine. Putin has floated that condition at least six times prior to his Sept. 25 statement, while his subordinates did so at least three more times, according to RM staff’s tracking of Russian leaders’ nuclear rhetoric since Putin’s Feb. 24, 2022, order to launch the “special military operation” against Ukraine.
• The Kremlin said Sept. 26 that an updated nuclear doctrine allowing Moscow to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states should be seen as a warning to the West. Without mentioning Ukraine by name, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia's "nuclear deterrence is being adjusted on account of elements of tension that are developing along the perimeter of our borders." (MT/AFP, 09.26.24)
• New satellite images show that the Yubileynaya silo at the Plesetsk test site has been seriously damaged, in what experts say may be the result of a failed test of an intercontinental ballistic missile. Four firetrucks are also visible in the Sept. 21 images of the Plesetsk Cosmodrome, located in the Arkhangelsk region in Russia’s north. By all indications, a flight test of the Sarmat ICBM, scheduled to take place between Sept. 19 and 23 (according to NOTAM, posted on Sept. 17), ended in failure. If true, it would be the fourth time a Sarmat launch has failed. The Kremlin declined to comment on the episode on Sept. 23, referring questions to the Defense Ministry, which did not comment. (RFE/RL, 09.22.24, Russianforces.org, 09.23.24, NYT, 09.23.24)
  • “I do believe that the most likely explanation was an incident at the time of the launch,” said Pavel Podvig, a Geneva-based analyst of Russian nuclear forces, confirming Maxar’s assessment of a test failure. “It’s a dramatic thing when you have, basically, as I understand it, a missile exploding in a silo.” (NYT, 09.23.24)
• The U.N. General Assembly on Sept. 26 marked the International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons with a long debate on nuclear disarmament. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres cited Russia at the start of the session, telling delegations that the United Nations must call on Russia "to return to the nuclear arms disarmament process." (RFE/RL, 09.26.24)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• A “deepfake” caller posed as a top Ukrainian official in a recent videoconference with Sen. Benjamin Cardin, the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee. According to an emailed warning sent by Senate security officials to lawmakers’ offices and obtained by The New York Times, a senator’s office received an email Sept. 19 that appeared to be from Dmytro Kuleba, until recently Ukraine’s foreign minister, requesting to connect over Zoom. On the subsequent video call, the person looked and sounded like Kuleba. The senator ended the call when the person began to ask sensitive political questions and reported it to State Department authorities, who confirmed that the figure who appeared to be Kuleba was an impersonation. (NYT, 09.26.24)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Russia's crude shipments tumbled to the lowest since July last week, sending the country's gross income from the critical trade to the smallest in around eight months. Four-week average crude volumes dropped to 3.1 million barrels a day in the week to Sept. 22, down by 115,000 barrels a day from the previous period. Weekly flows, which are more volatile, fell by about 390,000. (Bloomberg, 09.24.24)
• Russia has already dispatched a record amount of oil through its section of the Arctic Circle this year, expediting cargo deliveries to China in what is an environmentally sensitive area. At least 15 oil tankers, carrying about 10.7 million barrels of crude have used the Northern Sea Route so far this year. (Bloomberg, 09.25.24)
• The Russian government sees its oil and gas revenue falling for the next three years due to lower energy prices and a more lenient tax regime for Gazprom PJSC. According to a draft three-year budget seen by Bloomberg News, this key source of funds for the Kremlin will slide by 14% from 2024 to 2027. Russia’s oil and gas industry is set to contribute 10.94 trillion rubles ($118 billion) in taxes to state coffers next year, 3.3% less than the projection for 2024, according to the draft projections. Annual revenue is expected to keep declining in the following two years. (Bloomberg, 09.23.24)
• Gazprom, once Russia’s most profitable company, has dropped out of Forbes Russia's 2024 top 100 list, the business magazine wrote Sept. 27. (MT/AFP, 09.27.24)
• Belgium, one of Europe’s biggest importers of liquefied natural gas from Russia, has urged the EU to ban the Russian fuel, warning that companies cannot break long-term contracts unless the bloc as a whole imposes sanctions. (FT, 09.26.24)
• The U.K. has sanctioned five vessels and two entities linked to Russia’s liquefied natural gas exports, including tankers believed to have loaded at its newest export facility in the Arctic region. (Bloomberg, 09.26.24)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Russia on Sept. 23 sentenced an American man to six years in prison on charges of trying to take his son, a Russian citizen, out of the country illegally, officials said. A court in the western exclave of Kaliningrad ruled that the man, who was not identified by name, was guilty of "kidnapping" charges after trying to flee to Poland with his four-year-old son in July 2023. (MT/AFP, 09.23.24)
• The Russian judge who convicted Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich said the trial was short because the court did not examine any "material evidence" and the verdict did not take long because he could "type quickly." (MT/AFP, 09.27.24)
• An American rejected his U.S. citizenship in a Moscow court on Sept. 26, saying he was the victim of political persecution in the United States, Russian state news agencies reported. Joseph Tater was in court after being accused of assaulting a police officer after abusing staff at a hotel in the Russian capital last month. (MT/AFP, 09.26.24)
• Two Russians and an American returned to Earth from the International Space Station (ISS) on Sept. 23. (RFE/RL, 09.23.24)
• JPMorgan and HSBC unknowingly processed payments for companies controlled by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenary group, according to a new report by the U.S.-based Center for Advanced Defense Studies (C4ADS). (MT/AFP, 09.24.24)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia plans to maintain defense spending at an historic high in 2025 and sees only slight declines in the following two years as Putin’s war on Ukraine shows no sign of ending. Draft three-year budget proposals seen by Bloomberg News show the government intends to increase defense spending to 13.2 trillion rubles ($142 billion) in 2025 from 10.4 trillion rubles projected for this year, putting it at 6.2% of gross domestic product. Military expenditure is planned to decline to 5.6% of GDP in 2026 and 5.1% in 2027, according to Bloomberg calculations based on the draft data. (Bloomberg, 09.23.24)
• Russia is planning to spend more than 40 trillion rubles ($431 billion) over six years to achieve social targets Putin set for his new presidential term, according to the Finance Ministry. (Bloomberg, 09.24.24)
• The Bank of Russia sees early indications that policymakers’ nightmare scenario of high prices coupled with slow economic growth—elements of what is known as stagflation—risks becoming a reality for the country. “There are signs of cooling domestic demand. However, there is no reduction in inflationary pressure,” a summary from the central bank’s Sept. 13 rate-setting meeting published Sept. 25 read. (Bloomberg, 09.25.24)
• Russia’s Central Bank on Sept. 23 extended restrictions on transferring money abroad for an additional six months, with their new expiration date set for March 31, 2025. (MT/AFP, 09.23.24)
• Russian authorities may soon block the popular messaging platform Discord, the Kommersant business daily reported Sept. 27, citing sources familiar with the matter. Discord reportedly has between 29 and 40 million active users in Russia. (MT/AFP, 09.27.24)
• Google has restricted the creation of new accounts inside Russia, state media reported Sept. 26, citing Russia’s Digital Communications Ministry. Authorities said that Telecom operators reported a “significant decrease in the number of SMS messages sent by” Google to users in Russia, referring to messages the tech company uses to verify new account creation. (MT/AFP, 09.26.24)
• A Russian non-profit organization focused on church restoration is set to launch a faith-based messaging app called “Zosima,” dubbed “Orthodox WhatsApp,” this November, state media reported Sept. 24. (MT/AFP, 09.25.24)
• Russia’s opposition in exile has been hit by a monumental scandal, the likes of which may never have been seen before. Alexei Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation has accused Leonid Nevzlin, the billionaire former business partner of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, of organizing a series of attacks on the group’s key figures—including the brutal hammer attack on Leonid Volkov in Lithuania earlier this year. (The Bell, 09.26.24)
• Valentina Matviyenko was re-elected Sept. 25 for her fourth term as speaker of Russia’s upper house of parliament, the Federation Council. Matviyenko, 75, is third in line for the presidency, following the prime minister, in the event of Vladimir Putin’s death. (MT/AFP, 09.25.24)
• A former Wagner mercenary, Mikhail Ostryansky, who fought for Russia in Ukraine has been elected speaker of a local parliament in the Perm region amid controversy over hundreds of reports about crimes committed by returning members of the group. The result appears to hand Ostryansky, a 65-year-old former police officer, the highest position currently held by a returning soldier since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 09.24.24)
• Lom-Ali Idigov, a relative of the late leader of the short-lived Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, Dzhokhar Dudayev, was reportedly abducted and detained in the Russian North Caucasus region after he posted Dudayev's picture on Instagram. A source in Chechnya told RFE/RL that Chechen authorities refused to comment or explain why Idigov was detained. (RFE/RL, 09.26.24)
• More soldiers from the central Russian regions of Tatarstan and Bashkortostan have died than any other region in the country, according to a confirmed tally of war deaths compiled by RFE/RL's Tatar-Bashkir Service, with a further sharp increase recorded in recent weeks. (RFE/RL, 09.25.24)
• Russia’s digital military draft system will be fully implemented at the start of next year, while the upcoming fall conscription drive will still rely on paper summonses, a senior lawmaker said Sept. 23. Andrei Kartapolov, chair of the State Duma’s defense committee, said that the digital draft system—originally expected to launch this fall—will go live on Jan. 1, 2025. (MT/AFP, 09.23.24)
• Authorities in Russia’s Sverdlovsk region have raised one-time payments for new military recruits for the third time in two months. New recruits from the Ural Mountains region, which has a population of 4.2 million, will now receive 1.5 million rubles ($16,100) as a sign-up bonus, the regional government announced Sept. 23. Combined with Putin’s national sign-on bonus and municipal payments, new recruits could earn up to 2 million rubles ($21,500) up front. (MT/AFP, 09.23.24)
• Russian authorities plan to amend the Criminal Code by adding punishment for "Russophobia," defined as discrimination against Russian citizens and residents of the Russian Federation by foreigners and foreign officials abroad or calls for such actions. (RFE/RL, 09.23.24)
• Russia's parliament Sept. 25 voted to back a bill banning the adoption of Russian children in countries that allow gender reassignment, the latest in a series of ultra-conservative social measures. (MT/AFP, 09.25.24)
• A bill submitted to the Russian parliament has raised fears that the thousands of Russian dissidents seeking political refuge in post-Soviet and other non-Western states could soon be at risk of arrest and extradition back to Russia. The bill would allow prosecutors to send investigative materials to foreign states to seek the arrest of Russian citizens evading prosecution abroad. (MT/AFP, 09.27.24)
• Lawmakers in Russia’s Far East Primorye region on Sept. 25 passed a law outlawing the act of “coercing” women into having an abortion. The new law defines “coercion” into abortion as actions such as persuasion, bribery, deceit, blackmail or workplace pressure that compel women to terminate a pregnancy. (MT/AFP, 09.25.24)
• Russian lawmakers adopted a bill Sept. 24 allowing criminal defendants to serve in the military, closing a loophole that previously limited enlistment to suspects and convicts. The lower-house State Duma said its deputies voted in favor of two bills that, if signed into law, will allow defendants to sign military contracts or be mobilized. “Criminal proceedings against such persons will be suspended and the measure of restraint (house arrest, bans on certain actions, bail, detention) will be scrapped,” the Russian parliament said. (MT/AFP, 09.24.24)
• Several men accused of being involved in last week’s shootout at the headquarters of online retailer Wildberries are seeking to join the Russian military and fight in Ukraine, the Kommersant business daily reported Sept. 24, citing sources familiar with the matter. (MT/AFP, 09.24.24)
• The CEO of Russian retail giant Wildberries said Sept. 23 that she reverted to her maiden name amid an ongoing business dispute with her estranged husband that escalated in a deadly shootout last week. Tatyana and Vladislav Bakalchuk, the co-founders of Wildberries, one of Russia's largest online retailers, have been locked in a bitter dispute for months over a merger deal with advertising firm Russ Group. (MT/AFP, 09.23.24)
  • Vladislav Bakalchuk credited Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov with helping him stay alive and out of jail amid a family dispute over a controversial business merger that escalated into a shootout at the company’s headquarters last week. (MT/AFP, 09.25.24)
• A park in the Bashkortostan capital of Ufa dedicated to Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine was torn down in order to make way for the construction of a new business center, the regional news outlet Govorit Moskva reported Sept. 24. (MT/AFP, 09.24.24)
• At least two of around 20 wives and mothers of mobilized Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine have been charged with holding an unsanctioned public event after their Sept. 21 rally in front of the Defense Ministry in Moscow to demand their men be returned home. The protest coincided with the date two years ago when Putin signed a decree on a partial mobilization. (RFE/RL, 09.22.24, RFE/RL, 09.23.24)
• The imprisoned mother of a prominent critic of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has seen a dramatic deterioration of her health in recent weeks, her lawyer said Sept. 25. Zarema Musaeva, the mother of activist Abubakar Yangulbaev and the wife of a retired federal judge, was initially sentenced last summer to five and a half years in prison on charges of fraud and assaulting police. (MT/AFP, 09.25.24)
• Russia has convicted 785 foreign nationals for fighting on the side of Ukraine since hostilities between the two countries first broke out in 2014, Russia’s Investigative Committee said Sept. 26. (MT/AFP, 09.26.24)
• The Supreme Court in Ukraine's Russian-occupied Crimea region said on Sept. 23 that it sentenced a Ukrainian citizen identified as M. Seleznov to 14 years in prison for espionage. Seleznov was found guilty of collecting data about Russian military equipment in the partially occupied region of Zaporizhzhia for Ukrainian intelligence. It is not known how Seleznov pleaded. (RFE/RL, 09.23.24)
• A Moscow court has begun hearings into a 72-year-old American man accused of fighting as a mercenary in Ukraine, state media reported Sept. 27. The state news agency RIA Novosti identified the man as Stefan Hubbard, though another possible spelling of his name could be Stephen Hubbard. (MT/AFP, 09.27.24)
• Alexei Soldatov, a pioneering figure of the Russian internet and former deputy minister, is “dying in prison” while serving a two-year sentence for “abuse of power,” his son, investigative journalist Andrei Soldatov, said in a social media post on Sept. 26. (MT/AFP, 09.25.24)
• A military court in Moscow on Sept. 26 sentenced Russian actor Aleksei Panin, who currently resides in the United States, to six years in prison in absentia on a charge of justifying terrorism. The charge stems from Panin expressing support on social media in October 2022 for an explosion that seriously damaged the Kerch bridge. (RFE/RL, 09.26.24)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russian law enforcement authorities arrested Vladislav Pylsky, the manager of a Russian defense contractor, accusing him of defrauding the military by supplying substandard equipment, Russia’s Investigative Committee said Sept. 27. Pylsky allegedly provided the military with goods that “did not meet technical requirements,” costing the armed forces 164 million rubles ($1.76 million). (MT/AFP, 09.27.24)
•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Russian prosecutors are seeking a life sentence for Alexander Permyakov, who is accused of trying to assassinate pro-war nationalist writer Zakhar Prilepin, the independent news website Mediazona reported Sept. 27. Permyakov was arrested last May after a car bomb wounded Prilepin and killed his security guard in the Nizhny Novgorod region. (MT/AFP, 09.27.24)
• Two teenagers in western Siberia’s Omsk region were arrested and charged with terrorism for setting fire to a helicopter, the regional court’s press service announced Sept. 24. (MT/AFP, 09.24.24)

• A 13-year-old middle school student in Siberia’s Irkutsk region was arrested after attacking his classmates, local police said Sept. 23. Police said the student injured one classmate inside a locker room and caused “minor injuries” to other students in the town of Balagansk, located around 5,000 kilometers (3,107 miles) east of Moscow. The victims are receiving medical attention, and their injuries are not life-threatening, according to officials. (MT/AFP, 09.23.24)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• The Kremlin said Sept. 23 that it was “extremely” concerned over relentless Israeli airstrikes that have killed over 500 people and wounded around 1,800 others, as the Russian Embassy in Lebanon urged citizens to leave the country. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reiterated past accusations against the United States for obstructing peace efforts in the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas. (MT/AFP, 09.24.24)
• Russia will deploy telecommunications and remote-sensing satellites over three West African countries led by military juntas. Officials from the three countries—Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso—and Russia’s space agency announced that they had signed a partnership in Mali’s capital on Sept. 23 in a bid to strengthen security, manage natural disasters and improve internet access. (NYT, 09.24.24)
• Three Russian men were detained in the African nation of Chad, Russia's Foreign Ministry said late Sept. 23, confirming earlier reports. The ministry identified the detained Russians as Maxim Shugaley, Samer Sueifan and E. Tsaryov, saying it was in "close contact" with authorities in Chad and taking the "necessary steps in the interests of their swift release." (MT/AFP, 09.24.24)
• Russia’s FSB pressed criminal charges against two Australian journalists and one Romanian journalist for illegally crossing the border into the southwestern Kursk region while on reporting assignments, state media reported Sept. 27. (MT/AFP, 09.27.24)

Ukraine:

• The EBRD lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s economic growth to 4.7% next year from 6% in May due to Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, the lender said in its bi-annual report on the region on Sept. 26. The country’s economy is expected to expand 3% this year. (Bloomberg, 09.26.24)
• Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha and Zelenskyy chief of staff Andriy Yermak met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Sept. 26. The officials thanked China for its support of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, talked about further steps to develop relations and trade between the countries and discussed plans for the next top-level contacts, according to the short statement. (Bloomberg, 09.26.24)
• On Sept. 25, Mike Johnson, the Republican speaker of the House, called for Ukraine to fire its ambassador to Washington, accusing her of meddling in American election affairs. In a public letter addressed to Zelenskyy, Johnson demanded the dismissal of the Ukrainian ambassador, Oksana Markarova, citing her role in organizing a visit by Zelenskyy to an ammunition factory in Pennsylvania, a key battleground state, in the company of Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Democrat who supports Harris in her presidential bid. The speaker noted that no Republicans were invited. (NYT, 09.26.24)
  • Responding to the backlash, Zelenskyy wrote on social media: “We have always valued the strong bipartisan support in the United States and among Americans for Ukraine’s just cause of defeating Russian aggression.” The backlash has caused consternation in Kyiv, where the president’s allies accused officials of bungling the trip which comes at a crucial moment for Ukraine, as its troops steadily lose ground to Russian forces in the eastern Donbas region. “It looks like the Republicans were looking for ways to create a scandal but we should have avoided giving them the opportunity,” said a former Ukrainian official. “The Republicans will still be strong in Washington. They can block everything.” (FT, 09.26.24)
• Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and the governor of Zaporizhzhia region in Ukraine’s south, Ivan Fedorov, signed a cooperation agreement on energy, agriculture, defense, digital technologies and reconstruction, according to the president’s website. The manufacturing of weapons and military equipment is an “absolute priority” for Ukraine, Zelenskyy said. (Bloomberg, 09.23.24)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Georgia’s parliamentary speaker, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, said the U.S. had withdrawn an invitation for the premier to attend a reception hosted by Biden on Sept. 25, branding the move as interference in the Black Sea nation’s internal affairs. (Bloomberg, 09.25.24)
• One of the world’s largest weapons manufacturers Northrop Grumman Corporation hopes to help build an ammunition production line in Lithuania to strengthen the Baltic nation’s defense industry. Vice-President Stephan O’Bryan signed a memorandum of understanding with the Lithuanian government in the capital Vilnius on Sept. 23 to manufacture 30-millimeter ammunition at an existing state-owned facility. (Bloomberg, 09.23.24)
• Kazakhstan has defended the country's second-largest lender as being "fully" compliant with sanctions against Russia after a scathing report published by Culper Research, which poured doubt on the claim by fintech giant Kaspi that it lacks exposure to sanctions-struck Russia and raised concerns about the group's past affiliations to a relative of former President Nursultan Nazarbaev. (RFE/RL, 09.23.24)
• A Russian citizen, Yevgeny Nakaznenko, has been detained in Kazakhstan after Moscow put him on an international wanted list after he condemned the invasion of Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 09.22.24)
• The country hosting this year’s U.N. climate summit, COP29, is making “critically insufficient” efforts in tackling its own contribution to global warming, according to an expert assessment that will prove embarrassing to Azerbaijan. (FT, 09.25.24)
• Moldova's Intelligence and Security Service (SIS) has banned seven mostly Russian news sites, including that of state news agency RIA Novosti, which it said posed "national security risks" for Chisinau. (RFE/RL, 09.26.24)
• A video of a Sept. 23 incident at a school in Uzbekistan between a teacher and a sixth-grader who asked her why she didn't speak Russian in a Russian class went viral on the Internet and sparked strong reactions from Russians on social media. On Sept. 25, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in an interview that Russia "has requested official explanations from the Uzbek side" regarding the incident. (RFE/RL, 09.26.24)

IV. Quotable and notable

• No significant developments.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 11:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

.Slider photo by Kremlin.ru shared under a Creative Commons 4.0 license.