7 Things to Know

1. “With the front line largely static,” the Russian-Ukrainian war “is settling in for a brutal season during which thousands will likely die on both sides, but neither appears poised to muster a decisive breakthrough,” according to WSJ’s analysis of the conflict. However, Volodymyr Zelenskyy refuted the term “deadlock” when describing the state of the war in an interview with Bloomberg, even though prominent military strategists, such as ex-chair of the JSC Mark Milley, have described the situation on the front as a stalemate.
2. Ukraine should cease fire and start negotiations with Russia, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán told his Zelenskyy during his surprise visit to Kyiv on July 2, according to RBC.ua. Zelenskyy did not address Orban's proposal in remarks later that day, but he rejected it the next day, according to Bloomberg. Zelensky also told this news agency that China could play a “tremendous role” in resolving the conflict, and that Donald Trump should come forward with his plan to quickly end it. When asked about the most likely outcome of the war in a recent ECFR poll, 58% of Ukrainians foresaw a Ukrainian victory, 30% said it would end in a settlement and only 1% expected Russia to emerge victorious. In contrast, only a small number of those polled in the 14 other European countries ECFR surveyed last month think a Ukrainian victory is the most likely outcome. The prevailing view is that the conflict will conclude with a compromise settlement, according to ECFR.
3. “Ukraine to be told it is too corrupt to join NATO,” reads the headline of a preview of the alliance’s July 9-11 summit posted by Britain’s The Telegraph. The alliance will request “additional steps” from Kyiv before membership talks progress, this newspaper quoted a senior official in the U.S. State Department as saying. The position will be set out in writing in the NATO communique to be signed at the alliance’s annual summit on July 9. “As they continue to make those reforms, we want to commend them, we want to talk about additional steps that need to be taken, particularly in the area of anti-corruption,” the source added.¹
4. There will be some good news for Ukraine at the NATO summit: more air defense systems, Reuters reported, citing a senior U.S. State Department official. In addition, the United States will soon announce more than $2.3 billion in new security assistance for Ukraine, according to U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, cited by RFE/RL. Meanwhile, NATO allies have already agreed that they should aim to provide $43 billion in military aid for Ukraine per year, according to Bloomberg. That aid will be reviewed every year, however, which means the target sum could decrease or increase, depending on the situation on the battlefield, according to Bloomberg. Additionally, 31% of Americans say their country is providing too much support to Ukraine, 24% say it is not providing enough and 25% say it is giving about the right amount, according to one of Pew’s recent polls.
5. On paper, European members of NATO have a total of 1.9 million soldiers in what may seem enough to counter Russia’s 1.1 million soldiers and 1.5 million reservists, according to FT’s analysis of IISS data. “But in reality, European NATO powers would struggle to commit any more than 300,000 troops to a conflict—and even then, that would take months of preparation,” analysts tell FT.
6. Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping heaped praise on each other during their meeting on the sidelines of the SCO summit in Kazakhstan, with the Russian leader referring to his Chinese counterpart as a “dear friend” and being described in the Middle Kingdom’s media as Xi’s “old friend.” Xi said China and Russia should continuously conserve the unique value in the relationship of “lasting friendship,” while Putin described the relationship as “comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction” yet again. Putin also said Russia and China “are not creating any blocs or alliances.” SCO’s three-day summit in Astana is to focus on counter-terrorism and will also admit Belarus as a member.
7. Russia’s government revenue from the oil industry was almost 50% higher in June compared with a year earlier, Bloomberg reported. The agency noted that the increase came as Russia’s oil producers adapted to international sanctions and obtained higher prices for their crude exports. Oil-related taxes jumped to 590.6 billion rubles ($6.7 billion) last month compared with 402.8 billion rubles in June 2023, according to Bloomberg calculations based on Finance Ministry data. 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• According to Rosatom’s Program to Prevent Violations for 2024, as of Dec. 1, 2023, 199 organizations in Russia hold 262 defense nuclear licenses, including 64 organizations with licenses for weapons activities and 164 organizations with licenses for nuclear reactor activities (29 organizations have licenses for both weapons and nuclear reactors activities). (D. Kovchegin’s substack, 07.03.24)
• The Russian-appointed management of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant claims three kamikaze drones of the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked the Raduga electrical substation in Energodar on the banks of the Dnieper near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. (Media Zona, 07.03.24)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• Russia’s patriotic youth organization “Movement of the First” is planning to send schoolchildren to North Korea for summer camp. (MT/AFP, 07.01.24)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• No significant developments.

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on June 28 that 10 civilians, including a politician and two priests, taken prisoner in Russia and Belarus had been freed in a deal mediated by the Vatican. (MT/AFP, 06.29.24)
• A survey conducted this year by the International Rescue Committee estimated that an astonishing 74% of Ukrainians report being separated from a close family member because of the war. (The Economist, 07.02.24)

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• American officials said that Russia has achieved a critical objective of Russian President Vladimir Putin: creating a buffer zone along the border to make it more difficult for the Ukrainians to strike into Russia. But the drive did not threaten Kharkiv and was ultimately stopped by Ukrainian defenses, according to Western officials. (NYT, 06.27.24)
• “With the front line largely static,” the Russian-Ukrainian war “is settling in for a brutal season during which thousands will likely die on both sides, but neither appears poised to muster a decisive breakthrough,” according to WSJ’s analysis of the conflict. According to NYT, however, Russia “remains the army on the offensive” and has come close to “strategically important supply lines and towns” in Donbas, threatening to “slow the flow of food, weapons and ammunition the Ukrainian army needs to fight” in the country’s east. (RM, 07.02.24)
• Since capturing the city of Bakhmut in May 2023, a Russian offensive to the west advanced about three miles over more than a year. It is now stalled at a water canal near the town of Chasiv Yar. But now the Russians are threatening to flank Ukrainian positions there, while also approaching a key Ukrainian supply line, the Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka highway. (NYT, 06.30.24)
• Whether Russia will attempt a large-scale assault during the summer remains a vexing question for Ukrainian strategists and their Western advisers. Kyiv can spot Russian forces massing for a potential attack, a senior Western intelligence official said, but "taking strategic intent from that can be quite difficult." Ukraine has been able to replace losses and some reserves, the security official said, but would need several times more to launch a major offensive. (WSJ, 07.01.24)
• Zelenskyy challenged the notion that Kyiv is losing, refuting the term “deadlock” to describe the conflict. He said Kyiv’s forces are better positioned in terms of manpower than they were months ago and a new counteroffensive is a matter of arming its brigades. “It’s not a deadlock, it’s a problematic situation,” he said. “A deadlock means there’s no way out. But a problem can be solved if one has the will and has the tools. We do have the will, and the tools – they haven’t arrived yet.” (Bloomberg, 07.03.24)  
• On June 29, a Russian strike on the town of Vilniansk in the Zaporizhzhia region killed seven people and wounded three dozen. Kyiv also said four people were killed in eastern frontline villages in the Donetsk region. (MT/AFP, 06.30.24)
• On June 29, a Ukrainian drone attack killed five people, including two children in the village of Gorodishche, a tiny village in Russia's Kursk region, just a few meters from the border with Ukraine, according to local authorities. (MT/AFP, 06.29.24)
• On June 29, Russia’s Defense Ministry said its forces captured the Shumy village in the Donetsk region near the town of Toretsk. (RFE/RL, 06.29.24)
• On June 30, a Russian jet was reported to have fired a glide bomb at Kharkiv, killing at least one civilian and injuring nine others. (Bloomberg, 06.30.24, MT/AFP, 06.30.24)
• On June 30, Russia claimed two more east Ukrainian villages. Russia's Defense Ministry said its forces had "liberated the settlement" of Novooleksandrivka in the Donetsk region. Moscow also said its forces captured the small village of Spirne, further north in the Donetsk region near the border with the neighboring Luhansk region. (MT/AFP, 06.30.24)
• On July 1, at least seven people were wounded in the eastern Ukrainian city of Dnipro following a Russian ballistic missile attack, according to the regional governor. (RFE/RL, 07.01.24)
• On July 1, Russian attacks killed two elderly women in the town of Ukrainsk in the Ukrainian region of Donetsk. (MT/AFP, 07.01.24)
• On July 1, Ukrainian forces carried out a drone strike on electrical substations in the Belgorod region, which caused the Oskol Electrometallurgical Plant named after Ugarov in the Voronezh region of the Russian Federation to stop working. (Ukrainska Pravda, 07.03.24)
• On July 2, Russia’s Defense Ministry said its missile strike on an airfield in central Ukraine destroyed and damaged seven Ukrainian fighter jets. (MT/AFP, 07.02.24)
• On July 2, Russian forces were reported to have recently advanced near Vovchansk, Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka and the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, according to ISW’s update. (RM, 07.03.24)
• On July 3, at least five people were killed and 34 injured in a Russian missile and drone attack on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, according to state and local authorities. (FT, 07.03.24)
• On July 3, Russia claimed its forces had captured a district in the key hilltop town of Chasiv Yar near Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine. The Defense Ministry said its troops had "liberated" the Novy district of Chasiv Yar, but it was unclear if it was claiming its forces had crossed a canal which runs through the eastern part of the town. (MT/AFP, 07.03.24)
• At least 38 of the bombs that have been credited with helping drive Russia's recent territorial advances crashed into the Belgorod region on the border with Ukraine between April 2023 and April 2024, according to a document obtained by The Washington Post, though most did not detonate. (WP, 07.01.24)
• More than 3,000 prisoners in Ukraine have already been released on parole and assigned to military units after such recruitment was approved by parliament in a controversial mobilization bill last month, Ukrainian Deputy Justice Minister Olena Vysotska told AP. About 27,000 inmates could potentially be eligible for the new program, according to Justice Ministry estimates.  (AP, 07.01.24)
• On July 1, Ukraine’s security service said that it had foiled yet another Russian plot to stir public unrest and then use the ensuing turmoil to topple the government. Four people have been arrested and charged, according to the authorities. (NYT, 07.01.24)

Military aid to Ukraine:

• On July 3, NATO allies agreed they should aim to provide at least €40 billion ($43 billion) in military aid for Ukraine per year, but refrained from explicit pledges for the years ahead, according to alliance diplomats. NATO’s 32 members committed to the €40 billion target for aid, with the caveat that it be reviewed every year. The target in the future could decrease or increase, depending on the situation on the battlefield, they said. (Bloomberg, 07.03.24)
• Ukraine is expected to get "good news" in its quest for more air defense systems at a NATO summit in Washington next week, a senior U.S. State Department official said July 2. "We hope we'll be able to get to the summit and make some new announcements on air defense," said the official. Leaders will gather for a NATO summit in Washington from July 9 to July 11. (Reuters, 07.02.24)
• The United States will soon announce more than $2.3 billion in new security assistance for Ukraine, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said July 2 during a meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart at the Pentagon. Austin said the latest weapons package would include arms like anti-tank weapons and air-defense interceptors and will allow accelerated procurement of NASAMS and Patriot air defense interceptors. (RFE/RL, 07.02.24)
• In a nearly hour-long interview, Zelenskyy lamented the delays in weapons deliveries from Western allies and said he was “potentially ready” to meet with Donald Trump to hear his team’s proposals. “They can’t plan my life and life of our people and our children,” he said. “We want to understand whether in November we will have the powerful support of the U.S., or will be all alone.” (Bloomberg, 07.03.24)
• “We are helping Ukraine to the tune of a quarter trillion dollars so far. Not bad. And Ukraine is getting the means to inflict real costs on Russia. If Russia eventually gives up, Ukraine would become a very valuable ally,” said Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski. (FP, 07.02.24)
• Pew asked respondents in four countries—Hungary, Poland, Turkey and the U.S.—how they view their nation’s level of support to Ukraine in its war with Russia. In Hungary and Turkey, the most common view is that their country is providing about the right amount of support to Ukraine (61% and 46%, respectively). People in Poland are split, with nearly identical shares saying their country is providing too much (44%) or the right amount of support (45%) to Ukraine. In the U.S., 31% of Americans say their country is providing too much support to Ukraine, 24% say it is not providing enough and 25% say it is giving about the right amount. (Pew, 07.02.24)
  • In December 2023, Pew reported that in its survey, about three-in-ten Americans (31%) say the United States is providing too much assistance to Ukraine in its fight against Russia, while about half say that the U.S. is providing the right amount of support (29%) or not providing enough (18%). (Pew, 12.08.23)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• A flood of cheap Russian fertilizer risks driving European producers out of business or out of the continent, posing a risk to long-term food security, the crop nutrient industry has warned. The flow of Russian natural gas into the EU slowed significantly after the country’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and European countries have shifted to other sources of supply. But Russia has continued to use its gas to produce, and export to Europe, cheap nitrogen-based fertilizer. (FT, 06.30.24)
• Italian bank UniCredit has filed a legal challenge questioning a European Central Bank order to reduce its operations in Russia. UniCredit, which has the second-biggest exposure to Russia among Western banks, was one of several Eurozone lenders to receive a letter from the ECB in May, ordering them to speed up their withdrawal from the country. On July 1, UniCredit said it had applied to the EU’s General Court to seek clarification on the ECB request. It added that it had asked to be allowed not to comply with the request while its application was being heard. (FT, 07.02.24)
• The European Union has imposed new restrictions on trade and other operations with Belarus in order to curtail Russian sanctions evasion. Following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU slapped multiple rounds of sanctions on Russia, including a ban on the import of dual-use technologies and other goods. Russia has used its neighbors, including ally Belarus, as an intermediary to get around Western sanctions. The latest EU restrictions aim to close that loophole. (RFE/RL, 06.29.24)
• Ownership of Sardinia’s Forte Village Resort, named after its founder and influential hotelier Lord Charles Forte, shifted from Musa Bazhaev, a Russian oligarch with interests spanning energy, commodities and telecommunications, to one of his relatives on Feb. 25, 2022, Cypriot company records show. (FT, 06.28.24)
• Heavily discounted Russian-made goods, from hair products to chocolate, are finding their way onto Singapore’s virtual supermarket shelves even as many countries—and companies—shun doing business with the nation following its invasion of Ukraine more than two years ago. (Bloomberg, 06.29.24)
• Russia has issued arrest warrants for Ukraine’s ex-prime minister Volodymyr Groysman, ex-foreign minister Pavlo Klimkin, ex-finance minister Alexander Shlapak and Ukraine army Gen. Ihor Dovgan. They are accused of using “prohibited methods of warfare.” The four officials be given two months of pre-trial detention in absentia. (MT/AFP, 07.02.24)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• Ukraine should cease fire and start negotiations with Russia, says Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán at a joint press conference with Zelenskyy in Kyiv. He says that he appreciates all of Zelenskyy's initiatives to achieve peace, but these initiatives take a long time. "And I have asked Mr. President to think about whether we can take a slightly different approach. To take a break. To cease fire and then continue, to start negotiations," Orbán said. He added that a cease-fire could speed up the pace of these talks. (RBC.ua, 07.02.24)
  • Obran—who took over the European Union’s six-month rotating presidency on July 1—said that the talks with Zelenskyy on “the most fundamental issues of our relations,” including trade, cross-border cooperation, infrastructure and energy, would form the basis of a new “bilateral document.” “We would like to see a much better relationship between the two countries,” he said. (FT, 07.02.24, Bloomberg, 07.02.24)
  • In his remarks after their meeting, Zelenskyy did not address Orban's suggestion of a cease-fire. He said that Hungary will open its first Ukrainian-language school for refugees living there. "The substance of our dialogue on all today's issues can become the basis for a new bilateral document between our states," Zelenskyy said. (WP, 07.02.24)
  • A day after Orban—on his first trip to Kyiv during the war—urged Zelenskyy to consider a cease-fire, the Ukrainian leader rejected the notion. He said that those pitching for such a scenario have failed to articulate how a cease-fire would work.  “Nobody has an answer,” Zelenskyy said. “I’m not accusing, I’m just explaining.” (Bloomberg, 07.03.24)
• Zelenskyy said Trump should come forward with his plan to quickly end the war with Russia, warning that any proposal must avoid violating Ukraine’s sovereignty. “If Trump knows how to finish this war, he should tell us today,” Zelenskyy said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Kyiv on July 3. “If there are risks to Ukrainian independence, if we lose statehood – we want to be ready for this, we want to know.” (Bloomberg, 07.03.24)
• Zelenskyy said China could play a “tremendous role” in resolving the conflict, since Moscow is so dependent on its market for exports. He suggested that the U.S. and China, should they put aside differences, could act together to end the war. (Bloomberg, 07.03.24)
• Russia’s reliance on China has gotten to the point where Beijing could end the war in Ukraine if it chose to, Finnish President Alexander Stubb said. “Russia is so dependent on China right now,” Stubb said in an interview July 2. “One phone call from President Xi Jinping would solve this crisis.” (Bloomberg, 07.02.24)
• When asked about the most likely outcome of the war in an ECFR poll, 58% of Ukrainians foresaw a Ukrainian victory, 30% said it would end in a settlement and only 1% expected Russia to emerge victorious. But a majority preferred ceding territory to abandoning sovereignty, defined by the right to join NATO and the EU. Around a third of Ukrainians believe the war will end within the next year. Just 39% of Ukrainians believe Russia might attack another European country in the next two years, while 48% consider this unlikely. (The Guardian, 07.02.24, ECFR, 07.02.24)
• ECFR conducted an opinion poll of 19,566 people in 15 countries, including Ukraine, in the first half of May 2024 –only a small number of those surveyed outside Ukraine think a Ukrainian victory is the most likely outcome. The prevailing view in most countries (except for Estonia) is that the conflict will conclude with a compromise settlement. (ECFR, 07.02.24)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• On paper, European NATO members have a total of 1.9 million soldiers in what may seem enough to counter Russia’s 1.1 million soldiers and 1.5 million reservists, according to FT’s analysis of IISS data. “But in reality, European NATO powers would struggle to commit any more than 300,000 troops to a conflict—and even then, that would take months of preparation,” analysts tell FT. (RM, 07.02.24)
  • Rob Johnson—who recently stood down as director of the U.K. Ministry of Defense’s office of net assessment and challenge—said the U.K. military was operating with a “bare minimum” that only just allowed it to mount peacekeeping and humanitarian relief operations, civilian evacuation from warzones and some anti-sabotage activities. (FT, 07.01.24)
• European officials are scrambling to prepare for what they fear could become a highly dangerous phase in NATO's confrontation with Russia between the U.S. election in November and, if Trump wins, his return to the White House in January. The scenarios under consideration include Putin escalating his attacks on Ukraine, testing NATO's cohesion through a military provocation against the Baltic States, or reaching out to Trump if he wins in November to negotiate an advantageous settlement to the war. (WSJ, 07.03.24)
  • “Finland is, right now, geopolitically and geostrategically one of the most important countries in Europe because we have just doubled our NATO border with Russia,” Finland’s leader Stubb said. “A lot of people count on us.” (Bloomberg, 07.02.24)
  • “We have two nuclear states in Europe, of course, in NATO. But we are being encouraged by the Pentagon to develop autonomous military capabilities for the lower-order emergencies. ... Trouble that is short of war,” said Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski. (FP, 07.02.24)
• American defense officials raised the security alert level at military bases in Europe over the weekend in response to vague threats from the Kremlin over Ukraine's use of long-range weapons on Russian territory. Officials said that no specific intelligence about possible Russian attacks on American bases had been collected. Any such attack by Russia, whether overt or covert, would be a significant escalation of its war in Ukraine. (NYT, 07.02.24)
• Russian attack submarines have conducted missions around the Irish Sea twice since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, three people familiar with the matter said, an unprecedented move by the Kremlin that forced the U.K. military to take steps to protect British and Irish waters. (Bloomberg, 07.01.24)
• NATO will request “additional steps” from Kyiv before membership talks progress, a senior official in the U.S. State Department said. The position will be set out in writing in the NATO communique to be signed at the alliance’s annual summit on July 9. “As they continue to make those reforms, we want to commend them, we want to talk about additional steps that need to be taken, particularly in the area of anti-corruption. It is a priority for many of us around the table,” the source added. (The Telegraph, 07.02.24)
• Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria started a joint mine-hunting force in the Black Sea on July 1 to increase shipping safety, particularly for Ukrainian grain exports. (Bloomberg, 07.01.24)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• The issue of counter-terrorism is the focus of the SCO summit this week. The summit is also to admit Belarus to SCO as a member. (Global Times, 07.03.24, Gazeta.ru, 07.03.24)
• On July 2, President Xi Jinping hailed China’s long-standing “unique” ties with Kazakhstan as he arrived in the Central Asian country on July 2 for a state visit and participation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. He also pledged an “in-depth exchange of views” on bilateral and international matters with his Kazakh counterpart Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who received the Chinese leader at the airport in the capital Astana. (SCMP, 07.02.24)
• On July 3, Xi and Putin held talks in Kazakhstan, where they’re taking part in an SCO summit.
  • China and Russia should continuously conserve the unique value in China-Russia relations, and explore the internal driving force of bilateral cooperation, Chinese President Xi Jinping said while meeting with his old friend Russian President Vladimir Putin in Astana, on the sidelines of the three-day Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. Xi said that facing an international situation fraught with turbulence and changes, the two countries should keep upholding the original aspiration of lasting friendship, and sticking to the determination of benefiting the people, according to the Xinhua News Agency. (Global Times, 07.03.24)
  • Putin addressed Xi as a “dear friend,” according to the Kremlin’s statement on the meeting. Repeating his earlier praise for the relationship, Putin declared that “Russian-Chinese relations of comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction are experiencing the best period in their history.” He also said that the relationship “is built on the principles of equality, mutual benefit and respect for each other’s sovereignty.” “Our cooperation is not directed against anyone. We are not creating any blocs or alliances,” Putin told Xi, according to the Kremlin’s readout of remarks by Putin who also met with Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan later on July 3. (RM, 07.02.24)
• Chinese and Russian companies are developing an attack drone similar to an Iranian model deployed in Ukraine, European officials familiar with the matter said, a sign that Beijing may be edging closer to providing the sort of lethal aid that Western officials have warned against. Providing Russia a Shahed-like attack drone would mark a deepening of Beijing’s support for Russia. (Bloomberg, 07.02.24)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov restated in an interview with Izvestiya Putin's assertions of recent weeks that Russia's nuclear doctrine, which details when such weapons could be used, was being reassessed. He told Izvestia that the doctrine was drafted "in a different era and in different circumstances" and that he hoped the discussions now "are being taken seriously by our opponents." "They are literally playing with fire ... and must learn not to indulge in dangerous illusions, but to try to look at the world soberly and understand that we have immutable national interests which we are prepared to defend to the end," he said. Ryabkov also did not rule out downgrading diplomatic relations with certain Western countries if they failed to alter their "Russophobic" approach to ties. (Reuters, 06.27.24)
• Ryabkov told Russian TV: “The laws of hostilities and the laws of conflicts suggest that in the absence of the enemy's understanding of the seriousness of the situation, it is necessary to use more and more powerful means.” “The nuclear issue is getting louder,” he warned. (TASS, 06.27.24)

Counterterrorism:

• The number of people killed in a wave of coordinated attacks in Russia's southern Dagestan region last month has risen to 22, the regional head said July 1. Gunmen simultaneously attacked two churches, two synagogues and a police checkpoint in two cities in Dagestan on June 23. (MT/AFP, 07.01.24)

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• A U.N. body condemned a series of incidents of what it said was Russian interference in the satellite systems of European countries and asked it to stop, according to a document published on July 1. The International Telecommunications Union (ITU) reviewed a series of complaints from France, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Sweden and Ukraine about satellite interference in recent months. Russia has been using Kaliningrad, its exclave that borders Poland and Lithuania, as one of its bases to disrupt EU satellite systems, according to ITU. (Bloomberg, 07.02.24, RFE/RL, 07.01.24)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Gazprom exported 23% more natural gas to Europe last month than it did in June 2023. Gazprom’s EU exports averaged 81.8 million cubic meters per day in June, up from 66.8 million cubic meters per day in June 2023, according to Reuters’ estimations of the company’s daily reports on gas transit via Ukraine and data from the European gas transmission group Entsog. (MT/AFP, 07.02.24)

Climate change:

• Around 40 daily temperature records were broken across Russia and annexed Crimea on July 2 as hot summer weather gripped the country, the Phobos weather center said July 3. The unprecedented temperatures have engulfed Russia from its central regions to the Far East, reaching a maximum of 38.7 degrees Celsius in the village of Mamakan in southeastern Siberia’s Irkutsk region. (MT, 07.03.24)
• Authorities in Russia’s Siberian and Far East republics of Tyva and Sakha (Yakutia) have declared states of emergency due to summer wildfires raging across the regions. Russia’s Emergency Situations Ministry said 75 people died and 2,200 were evacuated from more than 500 active wildfires across the country in the past week. (MT/AFP, 07.01.24)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Russia has arbitrarily detained Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich under unsubstantiated claims of espionage and should immediately release him from prison, the U.N. Working Group on Arbitrary Detention said. (WSJ, 07.02.24)
• Overall, a median of 65% of adults in the 36 countries surveyed by Pew have an unfavorable view of Russia, while 28% have a favorable view. Some 86% of Americans had an unfavorable view of Russia, while 11% had a favorable view of this country. (Pew, 07.02.24, RM, 07.02.24)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia’s government revenue from the oil industry was almost 50% higher in June compared with a year earlier as the nation’s producers adapted to international sanctions and obtained higher prices for their crude exports. Oil-related taxes jumped to 590.6 billion rubles ($6.7 billion) last month compared with 402.8 billion rubles in June 2023, according to Bloomberg calculations based on Finance Ministry data. (Bloomberg, 07.03.24)
• The World Bank has upgraded Russia from an “upper-middle-income” to a “high-income” country with per-capita gross national income (GNI) totaling $14,250 in 2023. “Economic activity in Russia was influenced by a large increase in military-related activity in 2023,” the international financial institution said July 1. Russia’s move up the ranks was also boosted by growth in trade (+6.8%), the financial sector (+8.7%) and construction (+6.6%), according to the U.S.-based institution. (MT/AFP, 07.02.24)
• Chechnya’s strongman leader has appointed another close relative to a top position in the government of the North Caucasus region. At a government meeting on July 1, Ramzan Kadyrov said he was tapping his 27-year-old nephew, Khamzat Kadyrov, to be secretary of the region’s Security Council. (RFE/RL, 07.02.24)
• A court in St. Petersburg on July 2 labeled one of Russia's best-known TV journalists, Alexander Nevzorov, and his wife, Lidia, as an "extremist group" and ordered their property in the northwestern Leningrad region to be confiscated. Nevzorov, who openly condemned Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and fled the country for a European Union member state in 2022, wrote on Telegram that Russian authorities had bargained with him for two months. (RFE/RL, 07.02.24)
• Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, has been elected to head the Human Rights Foundation (HRF), the foundation said on its website on July 1. She is replacing Garry Kasparov, another Russian opposition member living abroad. (RFE/RL, 07.01.24)

Defense and aerospace:

•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs head Vladimir Kolokoltsev claimed that the number of "serious" and "especially serious" crimes committed by foreigners in Russia decreased by 7.6% in 2024 in comparison to 2023. (ISW, 07.01.24)
• The Moscow City Court announced a guilty verdict on July 1 against two Kazakhs living in Moscow who were charged with railway sabotage. Alexander Abram and Eduard Burdilov were charged with sabotage committed by a group of persons by prior conspiracy. (RFE/RL, 07.01.24)
• The Russian Wrestling Federation said on July 2 that Moscow police detained Alisher Ismatzoda, a coach of the Russian youth freestyle wrestling team, on suspicion of facilitating terrorist activities. Media reports say investigators have asked a court in Moscow to place the 32-year-old native of Tajikistan in pretrial detention on charge of recruiting people to conduct terrorist acts. (RFE/RL, 07.02.24)

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including  relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russia assumed its one-month-long rotating presidency of the U.N. Security Council on July 1 for the first time since April 2023. (ISW, 07.01.24) 
• Worried by deepening China-Russia relations, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is heading to Moscow next week for talks with Putin, his first visit to the country since the Kremlin’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 07.02.24)
• France's far-right National Rally (RN) party, led by Marine Le Pen, has secured a clear victory in the first round of parliamentary elections. If the party wins an absolute majority in the July 7 runoff, France would have a far-right government for the first time since World War II. (RFE/RL, 07.01.24)
• Russia's FSB said July 3 that French researcher Laurent Vinatier had pleaded guilty during questioning to illegally collecting sensitive Russian military information that could be used by hostile intelligence services. (Reuters, 07.03.24)
• Serbian President Alexander Vucic called relations between Serbia and Russia "very good" following a July 2 meeting with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grusko in Belgrade. (RFE/RL, 07.02.24)
• Russian lawmakers on July 3 voted to suspend Moscow's participation in the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's (OSCE) parliamentary assembly, branding it anti-Russian and discriminatory. (MT/AFP, 07.03.24)
• Two Russian naval ships docked on July 2 in Venezuela after leaving Cuba. Moscow's Defense Ministry said the main aim of the ship's visit to the region was to "show the flag and ensure a naval presence in operationally important areas" of the Atlantic Ocean. It said that the frigate Admiral Gorshkov -- one of Russia's most advanced warships capable of carrying hypersonic missiles -- and oil tanker Academic Pashin, both from its Northern Fleet, docked in La Guaira. (RFE/RL, 07.02.24)

Ukraine:

• Ukraine moved up from the lower-middle-income to the upper-middle-income category of countries this year. Ukraine’s upward change in classification resulted from a resumption of economic growth in 2023 (real GDP grew 5.3%, following a drop of 28.8% in 2022) along with a continued decline in population, which has fallen more than 15% since the invasion from Russia began. (World Bank, July 2024)
• IMF will add a requirement for Ukraine to implement changes to its customs code in a bid to step up a crackdown on corruption. Kyiv will need to align its customs operations with EU legislation, strengthen personnel integrity and introduce a merit-based and transparent hiring process for staff, according to a memo from the Washington-based lender published June 29. (Bloomberg, 06.29.24)
• A total of 34% of Ukrainians polled for ECFR currently say they trust Zelenskyy “a great deal,” while a further 31% trust him “quite a lot” – meaning that those who are keeping faith with their leader outnumber those who are not by two to one. (The Guardian, 07.02.24)
• More than 44,000 people in 36 countries were surveyed by Pew across North and South America, Europe, Asia, the Middle East and Africa. Overall, an average of 46% of respondents said they do not have confidence in Zelenskyy to do the right thing, compared to 40% who said they do. Confidence in Zelenskyy has declined significantly in some countries since 2023 – most notably in Ukraine’s neighboring country of Poland. Among Poles, 48% have confidence in Zelenskyy, down from 70% in 2023 (-22 points). Confidence in him has also decreased by double digits in South Korea (-15) and South Africa (-12). Decreases are smaller but still statistically significant in Australia, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and the U.S. (The Hill, 07.02.24, Pew, 07.02.24)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Azerbaijan is escalating a conflict with France that’s playing out in French territories in the Pacific, Caribbean and Latin America over weapons the European nation has supplied to Armenia. The Baku Initiative Group, an organization linked to the Azerbaijani government, is agitating for an end to Paris’s rule in many of its overseas regions, supporting pro-independence activists in places like French Polynesia and New Caledonia. (Bloomberg, 07.02.24)
• Roughly 1.3 million Uzbeks were working in Russia in 2023, according to the United Nations International Organization for Migration, down from 1.45 million in the year before.  (WSJ, 07.03.24)

IV. Quotable and notable

• No significant developments.

Footnotes

1. Ukrainian officials insist that they are battling corruption “as fiercely as their troops are fighting Russia's invaders in the east.” (WP, 06.20.24)

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 11:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

Slider photo by Ukrainian military in the public domain as a Ukrainian military work.