This Week’s Highlights

• An AP investigation of a Russian strike on a Mariupol theater has yielded an estimate that about 600 civilians, who were seeking shelter in the building, may have been killed in that strike. An investigation by Reuters produced evidence that servicemen of Russia’s Vityaz security unit and its 76th air assault division were stationed in Bucha when civilians were killed in the town in March.
• Asked about a NYT report that U.S. intel helped Ukraine kill Russian generals, a Kremlin spokesman said: "Coupled with the flow of weapons that these countries are sending to Ukraine, these are all actions that do not contribute to the quick completion of the operation.” A Pentagon spokesman pushed back on the NYT report. At least 12 Russian generals are believed to have been killed in the fighting in Ukraine.
• BBC’s Russian Service has studied open sources to infer the names of 2,120 Russian soldiers killed in action in Ukraine. Every fifth KIA is an officer, according to the BBC. Media Zona counted 2,099 Russian soldiers as killed in action in Ukraine as of May 6.
• Senior Russian officials repeatedly denied reports that Putin may announce mobilization on May 9, while Western officials predicted that the Russian leader could formally declare war on Ukraine on that day in what would give the Kremlin legal grounds for drafting reservists for combat. In addition, the Kremlin may announce the annexation of Ukraine’s Luhansk and Donetsk regions and the establishment of a “people’s republic” in the Kherson region in mid-May, according to a U.S. diplomat. Top pro-Kremlin party official Andrei Turchak visited Kherson on May 6 to declare that “Russia is here forever.”
• Hungarian PM Orban said an EU-wide embargo on imports of Russian oil, which the European Commission has proposed, would be like dropping an "atomic bomb" on the Hungarian economy. EU diplomats now expect Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic to be given more time to wean themselves off Russian oil in new proposals from the EC. The new sanctions proposed by the EC would also ban European ships from transporting Russian oil and would exclude Sberbank from SWIFT.
• March 2022’s U.S. export volume to Russia was the lowest in the history of U.S.-Russian trade since monthly data became available in 2002.
• Despite Western sanctions, Russia’s tax revenues will increase to more than $180 billion this year, which would be 45% more than in 2021, according to Rystad Energy.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• The IAEA said it has been informed by Kyiv that Russia has sent nuclear specialists to help monitor the Zaporizhzhia NPP in Ukraine's southeast. The IAEA has also warned that Russian troops are putting “unbelievable pressure” on workers at the Zaporizhzhia NPP, saying the situation is “unsustainable.” (RFE/RL, 04.30.22, Bellona, 05.03.22)
• IAEA chief Rafael Mariano Grossi met with Rosatom chief Alexei Likhachev and other senior Russian officials in Istanbul. The IAEA said that the director general was "continuing timely and professional discussions where he stressed the urgency of ensuring the safety of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia NPP. (WMN, 05.05.22)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Western officials have largely lost hope the Iran nuclear deal can be resurrected, sources familiar with the matter said, forcing them to weigh how to limit Iran's atomic program even as Russia's invasion of Ukraine has divided the big powers. (Reuters/Middle East Monitor, 05.02.22)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Ukrainian police have received more than 7,000 reports of missing people since the start of the invasion in February and half of the cases are still unsolved, Ukraine’s Interior Ministry said. (NYT, 04.29.22)
• Valdis Dombrovskis, European Commission executive vice-president in charge of economic policy, said EU officials were looking both to accelerate a payment of 600 million euros to Ukraine under the bloc’s existing emergency support plan. (FT, 05.01.22)
• Of the 5 million Ukrainians who fled Ukraine after Moscow launched its full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, more than 1 million have returned, according to Denys Shmyhal, Ukraine’s prime minister. (FT, 05.02.22)
• U.S. first lady Jill Biden has arrived in Romania to begin a five-day trip that will also take her to fellow NATO member Slovakia as part of Washington’s efforts to show support for allies in the region amid Russia’s war against Ukraine. She is also to meet Ukrainian refugees. (RFE/RL, 05.06.22, RFE/RL, 05.05.22)
• Russian’s Defense Ministry said May 3 that more than 1 million people, including nearly 200,000 children, had been taken from Ukraine to Russia in the past two months. (RFE/RL, 05.03.22)
• The Associated Press says it has conducted an investigation that shows about 600 civilians died when Russia attacked a theater in Mariupol that was being used as a bomb shelter.  (RFE/RL, 05.05.22)
• Reuters has examined the aftermath of Russia’s hasty retreat from Bucha– and found vital clues to the identities of individual Russian soldiers and military units present during the bloody occupation. Among them were servicemen of the Russian National Guard’s Vityaz security force and of the Russian Defense Ministry’s 76th Guards Air Assault Division. (Reuters, 05.05.22)
• An estimated 200 civilians are reported to be hiding in the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol  along with as many as 2,000 Ukrainian fighters. Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said at least 50 civilians were successfully evacuated from the plant May 6. (RFE/RL, 05.06.22, CNN, 05.06.22)
• With its creation of a new sponsorship program for Ukrainian refugees—which received more than 14,500 applications in its first 10 days—the Biden administration is betting that it can rely on the generosity of refugees' family members, friends and even strangers to manage the resettlement effort without the help of the U.S. government. (WSJ, 05.06.22)

Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• The Western artillery flooding into Ukraine will alter the war with Russia, setting off a bloody battle of wits backed by long-range weapons and forcing both sides to grow more nimble if they hope to avoid significant fatalities as fighting intensifies in the east, U.S. officials and military analysts predict. (WP, 04.30.22)
• The Kremlin is moving troops from far-eastern Russia to the battlefield in eastern Ukraine. (NYT, 04.30.22)
• In mid-April, U.S. intelligence agencies estimated that 5,500 to 11,000 Ukrainian troops had been killed, and more than 18,000 wounded. Western intelligence agencies estimate that Russian military losses range from 7,000 to 10,000 killed and 20,000 to 30,000 wounded. (NYT, 05.01.22)
• A railroad bridge has partially collapsed in Russia’s western Kursk region, which borders northeastern Ukraine, the region’s governor said May 1. (RFE/RL, 05.01.22)
• Russia is running short of precision missiles in its war against Ukraine, Western officials said. (FT, 05.01.22)
• Ukrainian forces hunting Russian tanks and tracking troop movement are being aided by imagery from a growing number of commercial spy satellites. Company officials say they are streaming data to the U.S. and allied governments, sometimes directly to Kyiv authorities. (WSJ, 05.01.22)
• Two Russian Navy Raptor high-speed patrol boats have sunk in the Black Sea near Zmiinyi island, according to the Ukrainian military. (Defence Blog, 05.02.22)
• Russia’s Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov paid an unusual visit to the frontline in the area of the Ukrainian city of Izyum, held by Russians. “Our working assumption is that he was there because there’s a recognition they haven’t worked out all their problems yet,” said one of two unnamed U.S. officials with knowledge of Gerasimov’s visit. (MT/AFP, 05.02.22)
• The British military’s defense intelligence agency estimated May 2 that Russia committed roughly 65 % of its entire ground combat forces to the war in Ukraine and that more than a quarter of those have likely been “rendered combat ineffective.” (NYT, 05.02.22)
• A U.S. official on May 2 described the Russian war effort in the Donbas as “anemic.”  “They’ll move in and then declare victory, and then withdraw their troops, only to let the Ukrainians take it back,” the official said. (CNN, 05.03.22)
• Putin could formally declare war on Ukraine as soon as May 9, Western officials believe. British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said he “would not be surprised, and I don’t have any information about this, that he is probably going to declare on this May Day.” (CNN, 05.03.22)

• Ukrainian forces have captured some of Russia's most sensitive EW equipment, including part of an advanced Krasukha-4 array. (WP, 05.04.22)
• Russia fired 18 cruise missiles at eight regions of Ukraine on May 3, including the western city of Lviv where they destroyed or badly damaged three electricity substations powering the rail network. Ukraine’s air force said the missiles were mostly fired from bombers over the Caspian Sea. (FT, 05.04.22)
• Russia’s independent investigative project Vazhnye Istorii (Important Stories) browsed the Goryushko Telegram channel, which collects reports about Russian KIAs, and established the places of residence and dates of birth of 1,855 KIAs. Of Russian regions, Dagestan saw the greatest number of its residents killed while fighting in Ukraine: 123. Buryatia was second with 91 and Volgograd was third with 75. (RM, 05.04.22)
  • BBC’s Russian Service has studied open sources to infer the names of 2,120 Russian soldiers killed in action in Ukraine. Every fifth KIA is an officer, according to the BBC. Media Zona counted 2,099 Russian soldiers as killed in action in Ukraine as of May 6. (RM, 05.06.22)
• “Russia has deployed 22 battalion tactical groups near Izyum in its attempt to advance along the northern axis of the Donbas,” the U.K.’s Defense Ministry said May 4. (FT, 05.04.22)
• Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied reports that Putin will announce mobilization on May 9. "It's not true, it's nonsense," he said. (Zona.Media, 05.04.22)
• A series of attacks inside Russian territory and unexplained explosions at Russian targets near the border with Ukraine have expanded the scope of the conflict in recent weeks, underscoring Russian vulnerabilities. (WSJ, 05.05.22)
• Ukrainian forces appear to have made gains in the battleground of Kharkiv in recent days, regaining some strategic territory. (NYT, 05.05.22)
• Germany says it will deliver seven self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine after reversing its policy to not send heavy armaments to war zones. (RFE/RL, 05.06.22)
• NBC News reported on May 5 that the United States had helped locate Russia’s Moskva cruiser in the Black Sea, at the request of the Ukrainian military. However, Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said May 6 that the U.S. “did not provide Ukraine with specific targeting information for the Moskva,” although he acknowledged that the U.S. and allies routinely share intelligence with Ukraine. "We were not involved in the Ukrainians’ decision to strike the ship or in the operation they carried out," Kirby said. (RFE/RL, 05.06.22, WP, 05.06.22, MT, 05.06.22)
• Russian state enterprises with seemingly little affiliation to the military are recruiting “mobilization and wartime experts,” the Sota news outlet has reported. (MT/AFP, 05.06.22)
• Ukraine’s general staff said on May 6 Russian troops supported by air strikes and artillery “resumed assault operations to take control” of the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol. “The renewed effort ... is likely linked to the upcoming 9 May Victory Day commemorations and Putin’s desire to have a symbolic success in Ukraine,” British military intelligence said. (FT, 05.06.22)
• Officials across Ukraine issued urgent warnings about the threat of stepped-up Russian missile strikes over the weekend, amid fears that Putin might use Russia’s upcoming Victory Day holiday to expand the war. (NYT, 05.06.22)
• The Kremlin has denied that it has any information about a reported Ukrainian strike on a Russian warship, the Admiral Makarov, in the Black Sea. (Newsweek, 05.06.22)

Punitive measures related to Ukraine and their impact globally:

• Europe’s efforts to wean itself off Russian energy since the start of the Ukraine war have been a “geostrategic game-changer,” Derek Chollet, the U.S. State Department counsellor, said. (FT, 04.29.22)
• Wealthy Russians are trying to swap their luxury properties in London for multimillion-pound homes in Dubai. (FT, 04.29.22)
• "As far as companies based in Russian territory are concerned whose owners are citizens of hostile countries and where the decision has been taken" to seize Russian assets, "it is fair to take reciprocal measures and confiscate assets," said Duma speaker Vyacheslav Volodin.  (AFP, 05.01.22)
• Putin signed a decree according to which, from 2025, Russian government agencies and companies must stop using means of information security produced in countries that commit unfriendly actions against Russia. (Meduza, 05.01.22)
• The German government has said it backs a phased-in ban on Russian oil imports into the EU. (FT, 05.01.22)
• Russia is assembling an economic relief package equivalent to tens of billions of dollars to soften the blow of Western sanctions and shield its population from the financial fallout of Putin's war in Ukraine. (WSJ, 05.02.22)
• An energy consortium in Finland has abandoned a plan to build a Russian NPP in the Nordic country. (Bellona, 05.02.22)
• Ukraine has formally announced the temporary closure of its Berdyansk, Mariupol, Skadovsk, and Kherson seaports after losing control of them to Russian forces. (RFE/RL, 05.02.22.)
• Rystad Energy said in its report: “Despite the severe oil production cuts expected in Russia this year, tax revenue will increase significantly to more than $180 billion due to the spike in oil prices . . . This is 45% and 181% higher than in 2021 and 2020, respectively.” (FT, 05.03.22)
• BP said May 3 its decision to pull out of Russia translated into a $25.5 billion charge and a first-quarter loss despite soaring oil and gas prices. (WP, 05.03.22)
• About 750,000 of Russia’s 2.2 million b/d of crude exports to Europe run by pipeline. Sending that oil to Asia instead would need a costly and time-consuming expansion of export infrastructure. (FT, 05.03.22)

• A Fijian court has ruled that the Amadea superyacht owned by Russian oligarch Suleiman Kerimov can be seized under a U.S. warrant. (RFE/RL, 05.03.22)
• Putin on May 3 banned economic relations with sanctioned individuals from "unfriendly countries" on a soon to be published list. (MT/AFP, 05.04.22)
• Russia says it has barred entry to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kisida and more than 60 others, including cabinet ministers, media members and intellectuals, for the government's sanctions against Moscow. (RFE/RL, 05.04.22)
• Germany’s Federal Statistical Office said on May 4 the 62.3% fall in German exports to Russia to 900 million euros in March, compared with the previous month, was due to sanctions. The disruption to trade with Russia led to a 3.3% fall in overall German exports in March. German manufacturing orders and French factory output both fell more than expected in March. New orders for German industry fell 4.7% in March from February. Meanwhile, a 7.3% drop in French car output dragged overall factory production in the country down 0.5% in March. (FT, 05.05.22, FT, 05.04.22)
• Sberbank Europe, the single-largest European subsidiary of the state-owned Russian lender Sberbank, has been put into orderly liquidation. (FT, 05.04.22)
• The European Union's executive unveiled on May 4 plans for a gradual ban on Russian oil imports by the end of 2022 as part of a raft of new sanctions to punish Moscow. The commission is also proposing to bar European ships from transporting Russian oil and petroleum to any part of the world; denying Sberbank, Credit Bank of Moscow and Russian Agricultural Bank access to SWIFT and targeting Patriarch Kirill. The EU would also extend its ban on Russian broadcasters it blamed for disinformation. (MT/AFP, 05.04.22, FT, 05.04.22)
  • Hungary has accused Brussels of threatening EU unity with its plans to impose an embargo on Russian oil imports. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán told European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen that Hungary was unable to support the EU’s latest sanctions plan “in its current form.” Speaking on state radio on May 6, Orban said the EU-wide oil embargo would be like dropping an "atomic bomb" on the Hungarian economy. But he also said Budapest was open to other proposals if they didn't harm Hungary's interests. (FT, 05.05.22, RFE/RL, 05.06.22)
  • Josep Borrell, the EU’s high representative for foreign policy, said he understood why Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic were resisting the proposed oil embargo. The three countries rely on the Druzhba pipeline bringing heavy crude from Russia. Diplomats expect all three countries to be given more time to wean themselves off Russian oil in new proposals from the commission. (FT, 05.06.22)
• European countries have expressed an intention to phase out dependence on over 150 billion cubic feet of annual imported Russian gas, partly by importing an additional 50 billion cubic feet of LNG, roughly 50% more than it currently imports. (NYT, 05.05.22)
• The Italian police are in a race to finish investigating the ownership of a $700 million Sheherazade superyacht, which U.S. officials say is linked to Putin, before the vessel is put to sea and able to elude possible sanctions. (NYT, 05.04.22)
• The U.K. has widened its sanctions against Russia. Foreign secretary Liz Truss said on May 4 that accountancy, consulting and PR services could no longer be sold to Russia. Truss also announced fresh sanctions against individuals at media organizations including state-owned outlet Channel One, newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda and RT, formerly known as Russia Today. (FT, 05.04.22)
• Britain has revoked the Moscow Stock Exchange's status as a recognized stock exchange. (RFE/RL, 05.05.22)
• Russia has announced the expulsion of seven people from the Danish Embassy in Moscow in a tit-for-tat move announced by Copenhagen four weeks earlier. (RFE/RL, 05.05.22)
• The EU has proposed sanctioning former Russian gymnast Alina Kabaeva for her role in Kremlin propaganda and close ties to Putin. (AFP, 05.05.22)
• The U.K. has sanctioned Evraz, a steel and mining company whose biggest shareholder is billionaire Roman Abramovich. (RFE/RL, 05.05.22)
• Abramovich has denied that he demanded personal repayment of around 1.5 billion pounds of debt owed by Chelsea. (FT, 05.05.22)
• Google Play has banned Russian developers from adding and updating paid applications available at this platform. (Media Zona, 05.06.22)
• Restaurant holding AmRest, which was founded in Poland, failed to sell its Russian division, which manages 267 KFC and Pizza Hut joints in Russia, to the VTB Capital investment fund. The deal fell through due to Western sanctions imposed on the potential buyer. (Kommersan, 05.06.22)

• Poland and Lithuania are in talks with Ukraine to have the war-torn country export its summer grain harvest through their ports. (WSJ, 05.06.22)
• Russia on May 6 allowed for hundreds of categories of goods to be imported without the agreement of the intellectual property owner in order to bypass restrictions imposed over the Ukraine conflict. (MT, 05.06.22)
• Chinese tech companies are quietly pulling back from doing business in Russia under pressure from U.S. sanctions and suppliers. They include PC giant Lenovo Group Ltd. and smartphone and gadget maker Xiaomi Corp. (WSJ, 05.06.22)

Ukraine-related negotiations:

• “We do not demand that he [Zelensky] surrenders. We demand that he give the order to release all civilians and stop the resistance. Our goal does not include regime change in Ukraine,” Lavrov claimed. (RM, 05.01.22)
• Pope Francis said he has asked for a meeting in Moscow with Putin to try to stop the war in Ukraine but had not received a reply. (RFE/RL, 05.03.22)
• Zelensky said on May 6 that peace talks with Russia cannot resume until Russian forces pull back to where they were before Moscow launched its invasion on Feb. 24, but he left open the possibility of a negotiated settlement to end the conflict. “Not all the bridges are destroyed,” he said.  (NYT, 05.06.22)
• Members of the United Nations Security Council, including Russia, have agreed on a statement expressing “strong support” for Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’ efforts to find a peaceful solution to the “dispute” in Ukraine. (AP, 05.06.22)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and a delegation of U.S. lawmakers pledged on May 1 to support Ukraine after they met with Zelensky in Kyiv. Adam Schiff, chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, said the U.S. commitment wouldn't end until "victory is won."  Zelensky decorated Pelosi with the Order of Princess Olga, a Ukrainian state award given to women of distinction. (WSJ, 05.01.22, RFE/RL, 05.01.22)
• Denmark and Sweden are summoning Russia's ambassadors after a Russian spy plane violated the airspace of both countries, their governments said on May 1. (RFE/RL, 05.01.22.)
• One of the largest U.S. Army-led, multinational, joint military exercises has kicked off and will run from May 1 to May 27 along NATO’s eastern flank. The Polish Army said in a statement that 18,000 soldiers from over 20 countries were taking part in the Defender Europe 2022 and Swift Response 2022 exercises. (Defence Blog, 05.02.22)
• The U.S. has “highly credible” intelligence reports that Russia will try to annex Luhansk and Donetsk “some time in mid-May,” the U.S. Ambassador to the OSCE Michael Carpenter said. There are also indications that Russia could be planning to declare and annex a “people’s republic” in the southeastern city of Kherson. (CNN, 05.03.22)
  • A draft document prepared by top officials with Russia’s ruling political party, United Russia, calls for a new state named Southern Rus to be created from some regions of Ukraine occupied by Russian forces. (RFE/RL, 04.30.22)
  • “I wanted to once again, addressing the residents of the Kherson region, say that Russia is here forever. There will be no return to the past,” said Andrei Turchak, Secretary of the General Council of Russia’s pro-Kremlin United Russia party. The status of the region will be determined by its inhabitants, according to the remarks that Turchak made while in Kherson. (RBC, 05.06.22)
• French president Emmanuel Macron called on Russia to end the “devastating aggression” of its war in Ukraine in a telephone call on May 3 with Putin. Putin told Macron the West must stop supplying weapons to Ukraine and accused Kyiv of not taking talks to end the conflict seriously, the Kremlin said. (FT, 05.03.22, MT/AFP, 05.04.22)
• Forty thousand troops in eastern Europe are under NATO’s direct command—10 times the number on the day before Putin’s invasion. Eight countries now host NATO battle groups—twice the number previously. And a rapid response force, formed of up to 10,000 troops, has been activated in the name of collective defense for the first time in the alliance’s history. (FT, 05.04.22)
• More than 3,000 Finnish troops are taking part in the two-week Arrow 22 exercise alongside hundreds of American, British, Estonian and Latvian soldiers. (WSJ, 05.04.22)
• “The NATO-Russia act is still there. But nothing that we have to do is going to be hampered by its content,” says Adm. Rob Bauer, chair of the NATO Military Committee, the alliance’s highest military authority. “For now, the general opinion on the political level is that we do not kill [the agreement], but nothing in it . . . will stop us doing what we have to do,” Bauer adds. Dmitry Medvedev responded to Baeur’s assessment by asserting that Clausula rebus sic stantibus has “come into effect” with regard to the 1997 act. (FT, 04.05.22, Kommersaant, 04.05.22)
• Asked about a New York Times report that U.S. intelligence helped Ukraine kill a number of Russian generals, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "The United States, Britain, NATO as a whole hand over intelligence... to Ukraine's armed forces on a permanent basis. Coupled with the flow of weapons that these countries are sending to Ukraine, these are all actions that do not contribute to the quick completion of the operation," he said. (MT/AFP, 05.05.22)
  • “The United States provides battlefield intelligence to help Ukrainians defend their country,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told reporters. “We do not provide intelligence on the location of senior military leaders on the battlefield or participate in the targeting decisions of the Ukrainian military.” At least 12 Russian generals are believed to have been killed in the fighting in Ukraine. (Military Times, 05.05.22)
• Leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) nations will hold talks with Zelensky on May 8, the White House said. (RFE/RL, 05.06.22)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• “We are grateful to Beijing, as well as to other BRICS partners, for their balanced position on the Ukrainian issue,” Lavrov said on April 30. (RM, 05.01.22)
• "Resolving a crisis through further NATO enlargement will be an attempt to correct one mistake with another. It will merely lead to a greater catastrophe," Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng said in reference to the Ukraine crisis. (TASS, 05.06.22)

Missile defense:

• Russia needs hypersonic weapons to ensure that other countries do not consider the opportunity to deliver a strike first, hoping that the retaliatory strike will be suppressed by missile defense systems, Lavrov said. (Interfax, 05.01.22)

Nuclear arms

• When asked by Italian TV on May 1 to comment on his earlier statement about the possibility of a nuclear World War III Lavrov said: “I was asked about the threats that are now accumulating, how real the third world war is. I answered literally with the following: Russia has never stopped efforts to reach agreements that will guarantee the non-unleashing of a nuclear war.” (RM, 05.01.22)
• When asked whether there is a danger of using nuclear weapons anywhere in the current conditions, director of the Department for Non-Proliferation and Arms Control of the Russian Foreign Ministry Yermakov said it is necessary for everyone to consistently adhere to the logic that was spelled out in the joint P5 documents. (RM, 05.01.22)
• New START inspections have been suspended amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The issue of resuming inspection activities is being considered [by the U.S. and Russia], Yermakov said. (RM, 05.01.22)
• “You thought you could destroy us with other people’s hands and observe from the sidelines from a safe distance?” Russian MP Sergei Mironov, claiming that his country’s new intercontinental ballistic missile could destroy Britain in a single strike. (NYT, 05.03.22)
• Russia said May 4 its forces had carried out simulated nuclear missile strikes in the western enclave of Kaliningrad. (MT/AFP, 05.05.22)
• Russian state-owned media has attempted to make the use of nuclear weapons more palatable to the public. "For two weeks now, we have been hearing from our television screens that nuclear silos should be opened," Russian newspaper editor Dmitry Muratov said.  (MT/AFP, 05.05.22)
• Western officials and analysts say they believe Russia has assessed the cost of using nuclear weapons of any kind to be prohibitively high, and is instead posturing to deter the U.S. and its allies from becoming more involved in the war in Ukraine. (FT, 05.05.22)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• Israeli military officers who watched the Russian air force in Syria closely came away surprised by its struggles with air defense, target acquisition and high-tempo sorties. At one stage they thought Syrian involvement in air operations was the only plausible explanation for such a low level of professionalism. (The Economist, 04.30.22)

Cyber security:

• The third month of war finds Russia struggling under an unprecedented hacking wave. One recent survey showed more passwords and other sensitive data from Russia were dumped onto the open Web in March than information from any other country. (WP, 05.01.22)
• Ukrainian authorities estimate that some 400,000 hackers from numerous countries have aided the country’s digital fight so far. (FA, 05.02.22)

Energy exports from CIS:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• U.S. exports to Russia dropped from $497.5 million in February to $101.1 million in March, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. That compares to Russia-bound U.S. exports totaling $476 million in March 2021 and $595 million in February 2021. March 2022’s U.S. export volume to Russia was the lowest in the history of U.S.-Russian trade since monthly data became available in 2002. (MT/AFP, 05.06.22)

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Oil-and-gas sales contributed nearly 42% of Russia’s federal budget revenues in the first quarter of the year. (WSJ, 05.05.22)
• U.K.-sanctioned Russian businessman Oleg Tinkov said the Kremlin had forced him to sell his stake in the Tinkoff Bank he had founded after he criticized the Ukraine war. (MT/AFP, 05.02.22)
• On the February day he launched the invasion of Ukraine, Putin called to the Kremlin a group of his nation's wealthiest businessmen. Of the 37 attendees, more than half are linked directly or through a close relative to offshore companies that handled transactions worth hundreds of millions of dollars, making financial investments, issuing loans and forming family trusts (WP, 05.03.22)
• Russia’s investigative news portal Vazhnye Istorii has reported receiving information about almost 200,000 foreign property owners in Dubai. In those files, VI reporters have found information on real estate owned by more than 40 former and current Russian politicians and their immediate families, about 30 officials and about 30 heads of government agencies in Dubai. In total, more than five thousand Russians owned 9,700 properties in Dubai. (RM, 05.0322)
• More than 400 people or organizations have been designated foreign agents since the label first started at the end of 2020. (NYT, 05.05.22)
• A total of 3,880,679 Russians traveled abroad for work, business, tourism and private reasons between January and March, the FSB said. (MT/AFP, 05.06.22)
• Meduza's source in Yandex estimates that that about 5,000 employees of the company have left the Russian Federation—that is, about a quarter of the entire team (18,000 people).  (Meduza, 05.05.22)
• Daily downloads in Russia of the 10 most popular VPNs jumped from below 15,000 just before the war to as many as 475,000 in March.  (WP, 05.06.22)
• Alexander Nevzorov, a former MP who has worked with independent media, has been arrested in absentia on charges of publishing “fake” news about the Russian military's air strike on a maternity hospital in southern Ukraine. (MT, 05.06.22)

Defense and aerospace:

• A company of troops at Russia’s Vostok wargame in 2018 was counted as a battalion or even a regiment (closer to 1,000). Single warships were passed off as whole squadrons. (The Economist, 04.30.22)
• Russian military expenditure, when measured in exchange rates adjusted for purchasing power, almost doubled between 2008 and 2021, rising to over $250 billion, about triple the level of Britain or France. Around 600 new planes, 840 helicopters and 2,300 drones were added to the arsenal between 2010 and 2020. (The Economist, 04.30.22)
• Russia has confirmed it will pull out of the International Space Station (ISS), perhaps as soon as two years from now, because of the sanctions imposed on it after its invasion of Ukraine, according to news reports. "The decision has already been made," Dmitry Rogozin, the director-general of Roscosmos said. (Livescience, 05.02.22)
• This year fewer people and less military equipment will be at the 2022 Victory Day parade in Moscow, data published by the Defense Ministry on April 29 shows. Russia has scaled down their May 9 Victory Day Parade by almost 35%. (Real Clear Defense, 05.03.22, Newsweek, 05.05.22)

• See “Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts” section above.

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• The FSB summons relatives of Russians who have left the country for talks in order to persuade them to return, according to the Pervyi Otdel human rights project. (Media Zona, 05.03.22)
• Two men are on the run after attacking a conscription office in western Siberia with Molotov cocktails.  (MT, 05.05.22)

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Israel's Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said that Putin has apologized for remarks made by Lavrov, who claimed Adolf Hitler may have had "Jewish blood." (AFP, 05.05.22)
• Hungary says that Russia’s Rosatom has given reassurances that "in terms of technology they are able to complete the [Paks II NPP] project," with Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó looking forward to the construction entering its next phase. (WNN, 05.06.22)
• Russian Ambassador to France Alexei Meshkov said on May 6 that his country had been snubbed from participating in commemorative World War II victory events in France slated to be held on May 8. (The Hill, 05.06.22)

Ukraine:

• Analysts foresee Ukraine's grain output declining by more than half year-on-year in 2022.  (RFE/RL, 04.30.22)
• Zelensky has been invited to attend the Group of 20 summit in November by host nation Indonesia. (RFE/RL, 04.30.22)
• The United States says it expects to return to its embassy in Kyiv by the end of May, conditions permitting. (RFE/RL, 05.02.22.)

• Germany's conservative opposition leader Friedrich Merz traveled to Kyiv on May 3 for meetings with Ukrainian officials. (RFE/RL, 05.03.22)
• German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier has spoken with Zelensky amid a rift over a visit to Kyiv last month that was canceled at the last minute by Ukraine. Steinmeiers's office described the call as "very important, very good." (RFE/RL, 05.05.22)
• Zelensky has urged the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, to make a powerful political statement by visiting Kyiv on May 9 (The Guardian, 05.06.22)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Georgian authorities have extradited to the United States Mohamad Yassine and Hassan Abdul Rahman wanted by the Drug Enforcement Administration for money laundering. (RFE/RL, 05.02.22.)
• Police in Armenia have detained dozens of opposition protesters in the capital to demand the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian over what they feel are concessions to Azerbaijan over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Facing mass protests calling for him to resign, Pashinian is running out of options. (RFE/RL, 05.06.22, RFE/RL, 05.03.22)
• Armenia and Turkey have agreed to move forward with efforts to normalize relations "without conditions," a move that could lead to the reopening of their shared border, Armenia's Foreign Ministry says. (RFE/RL, 05.03.22)
• Stanislau Shushkevich, the first head of state of independent Belarus, has died after being hospitalized for complications caused by COVID-19. (RFE/RL, 05.04.22)
• Kyrgyz officials say 12 active members, including four leaders, of the banned Hizb ut-Tahrir Islamic group have been detained in the southern Jalal-Abad region. (RFE/RL, 05.04.22)
• While in Moldova, European Council President Charles Michel has promised to boost military aid to Moldova. He gave no further details. (RFE/RL, 05.04.22)
• Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko has said he didn’t anticipate the war in Ukraine would “drag on this way,” over two months after close ally Russia invaded its pro-Western neighbor that also shares a border with Belarus. (MT/AFP, 05.05.22)

 

IV. Quotable and notable

• George Beebe, a former chief of Russia analysis for the CIA, said that the Biden administration may be in danger of forgetting that the “the most important national interest that the United States has is avoiding a nuclear conflict with Russia.” He added that “the Russians have the ability to make sure everyone else loses if they lose, too.” (FP, 04.29.22)
• "Commercial geospatial data is to the war in Ukraine what GPS was to Desert Storm 30 years ago," said John Serafini, CEO of HawkEye 360. (WSJ, 05.01.22)

• Syed Ata Hasnain, a retired Indian general who once commanded India’s forces in Kashmir, notes “Russian incompetence in the field” in Ukraine, is rooted in “hubris and reluctance to follow time-tested military basics.” (The Economist, 04.30.22) 
• “We shouldn’t do anything less because of a threat from Russia,” said Nancy Pelosi after completing her visit to Kyiv. (NYT, 05.01.22)
• Capital "flees Russia primarily out of fear," said William Spiegelberger, an American lawyer who directed the International Practice Department at Rusal, the Russian aluminum company, before it came under U.S. sanctions in 2018. "Russia is a very dangerous environment for people with money." (WP, 05.03.22)
• "I just don't think it's a proxy war," Norman Naimark, a Stanford University professor of Eastern European Studies and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, told The Daily 202. "A classic proxy war is where there are two proxies fighting, to begin with," he said. "There are two sides, where two big powers—who don't want to fight each other—then use smaller groups to fight each other." (WP, 05.03.22)