This Week’s Highlights

• The U.S. State Department said U.S. and Russian teams led by Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov held "professional and substantive" talks in Geneva on July 28. The Russian foreign ministry said the talks addressed "maintaining strategic stability, the prospects for arms control and measures to reduce risks." Washington wants China to be included in wider talks on nuclear arms control, while Russia wants Britain and France to become part of wider nuclear arms control talks with the United States, according to reporting by The Moscow Times/AFP and RFE/RL.
• President Biden said in his remarks at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence on July 27: “You know, we’ve seen how cyber threats, including ransomware attacks, increasingly are able to cause damage and disruption to the real world. I can’t guarantee this, and you’re as informed as I am, but I think it’s more likely we’re going to end up — well, if we end up in a war, a real shooting war with a major power, it’s going to be as a consequence of a cyber breach of great consequence,” according to the White House press office.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government is forcing the U.S. diplomatic mission in Russia to stop employing foreign nationals in any capacity on Aug. 1, slashing the number of personnel staffing the U.S. Embassy and consulates by around 90 percent and leaving only a skeleton crew of U.S. diplomats, Foreign Policy reported.
• The yuan accounted for 17.4% of bilateral trade settlements between China and Russia in 2020, up from 3.1% in 2014. This year, Russia first included the yuan among the currencies for investment of National Welfare Fund (NWF), and then doubled its share from 15% to 30%, as reported by Interfax.
• Troops of Russia’s Eastern Military District will take part in large-scale joint drills dubbed Interaction 2021 on the territory of China. About 10,000 military personnel from both countries will hone their skills during the drills in mid-August, Russia’s Defense Ministry specified. Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe invited his Russian counterpart Sergey Shoigu to attend the joint military exercises, TASS reported.
• Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov becomes the latest Russian political figure to praise the Taliban militant group this week, with the Kremlin calling it a “powerful force” and Russia's envoy for Afghanistan calling its rapid takeover of border areas “positive” for regional security, according to The Moscow Times.
• Swiss prosecutors have closed a decade-long investigation into the money-laundering scandal exposed by Russian lawyer Sergei Magnitsky, Financial Times reported. 
•  Real disposable incomes in Russia grew in annual terms in the second quarter for the first time since early 2020, while unemployment has almost returned to pre-pandemic levels, Reuters reported. Meanwhile Russia's GDP increased by 4.6% year on year during the first half of 2021, according to bne IntelliNews. 

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Rosatom and a subsidiary of Kaz Minerals have signed for power supply to the new Baimskaya copper mining project in the Chukotka region of eastern Siberia. Rosatom proposes to use three floating nuclear power plants each employing a pair of the new 55 MWe RITM-200M reactors, a version of which is in service powering icebreakers. A fourth unit would be held in reserve for use during repair or refueling. (World Nuclear News, 07.27.21)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• Russia stands ready to intensify its dialogue with the United States on denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told Interfax on July 29. "Of course, we're keeping in touch with American colleagues at all levels … regarding the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and all related issues in general, among them a resumption of contacts between Pyongyang and Washington," Ryabkov said when asked whether Moscow and Washington are in touch on this issue, including in light of reports about the restoration of communication channels between the two Koreas. (Interfax, 07.29.21)
• "China and Russia have always played a constructive role in advancing political settlement on the [Korean] peninsula. China is ready to work together with the Russian side in order to continue unwaveringly promote political settlement of the peninsula's problem, encourage dialogue and consultation and maintain peace and stability in Northeastern Asia," Chinese Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui said in an interview with Interfax. (Interfax, 07.30.21)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said July 29 the negotiations on salvaging the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran “cannot and will not go on indefinitely,” signaling it’s up to Tehran to move forward soon on the issue. (Voice of America, 07.29.21)
• ''Trust in the West does not work,'' Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said, signaling further problems with stalled negotiations to salvage the country's nuclear agreement. Iran's top leader injected new doubts July 28 into the stalled effort to save the country's 2015 nuclear pact with major powers, accusing the United States of duplicity and chastising the outgoing Iranian president as naïve. (The New York Times, 07.29.21)

Great Power rivalry/New Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• “A dramatically warming Arctic is opening up competition for resources that once were hard to access. I had—as they say in Southern Delaware—they talk at you like this, you know what I mean?—I had a “Come to Jesus” meeting, an “altar call” with Mr. Putin about what he thinks is what Russia’s property is in the Arctic. China looking very closely at that as well, where they are,” President Biden said in his remarks at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence on July 27. (White House press office, 07.27.21)
• Satellite imagery appeared to show China building a new network of silos for launching nuclear missiles, researchers at the Federation of American Scientists said, the second such project that American analysts have accused Beijing of advancing in recent weeks. The images showed 14 silo-construction sites China's northwestern frontier region of Xinjiang, spaced roughly 1.9 miles apart from each other in a grid pattern, each with shelters protecting them from the elements. (The Wall Street Journal, 07.27.21)
• The US defense secretary said on July 27 that Britain might be more helpful as an ally if it did not focus on Asia, highlighting US concerns that forays by European allies into the Indo-Pacific could weaken defenses closer to home. “We have interests around the globe and we want to make sure that we work together to address all those interests,” Lloyd Austin said in Singapore on July 27. (Financial Times, 07.27.21)
• Russia is reportedly jamming European Space Agency’s Sentinel-1 radar imaging satellite over. Russian media on Jul. 25, reported that the EAS’ Sentinel-1 satellite has been repeatedly subjected to electronic warfare attacks when he was scanning areas near the country’s southern Rostov region near Ukraine. (Defence Blog, 07.25.21)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Troops of Russia’s Eastern Military District will take part in large-scale joint drills dubbed Interaction 2021 on the territory of China, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported on July 29. About 10,000 military personnel from both countries will hone their skills during the drills in mid-August, Russia’s Defense Ministry specified. Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe invited his Russian counterpart Sergey Shoigu to participate in the joint military exercises, which will be held in China in August. The Chinese defense minister noted that he was "very glad to meet with my great and old friend, the well-respected Russian Defense Minister Shoigu, once again, emphasizing that "this meeting was challenging to organize amid the COVID-19 pandemic." (TASS, 07.28.21, TASS, 07.29.21)
• China is interested in further increasing the share of national currencies in settlements with Russia, China's ambassador in Moscow, Zhang Hanhui said. The yuan accounted for 17.4% of bilateral trade settlements between China and Russia in 2020, up from 3.1% in 2014. This year, Russia first included the yuan among the currencies for investment of National Welfare Fund (NWF), and then doubled its share from 15% to 30%. (Interfax, 07.29.21)
• The coronavirus pandemic has had an impact on the scheduling of mutual visits of the world's leaders, but Chinese and Russian presidents have continued close communication on various issues of Chinese-Russian cooperation, Chinese Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui said in an interview with Interfax. "It can be said that the Chinese and Russian leaders have always interacted in a timely manner, held profound exchanges of opinions directing a joint fight against the epidemic, deep pragmatic cooperation and close strategic interaction, as well as setting goals for a more large-scale development of Chinese-Russian relations in the new era at a higher level," he said. (Interfax, 07.30.21)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

• The United States said July 28 it had held "professional and substantive" talks with Russia focused on arms control. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov touched elbows and wore face masks as they opened the closed-door talks in Geneva. The Russian foreign ministry in a statement said the talks addressed "maintaining strategic stability, the prospects for arms control and measures to reduce risks". It added that the two sides looked at "further development of cooperation". Ryabkov said on July 29 that Washington wanted China to be included in wider talks on nuclear arms control. Russia says it wants Britain and France to become part of wider nuclear arms control talks with the United States as Washington continues to seek China's inclusion in the negotiations. Anatoly Antonov, Moscow's envoy to the United States, said a day after senior U.S. and Russian officials restarted nuclear talks in Geneva. The US and Russian sides agreed to meet again in September and speak informally until then as they determine topics to pursue. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 07.29.21, RFE/RL, 07.29.21)

Counter-terrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• Using Russia-supplied air defense systems Pantsyr-S and Buk-M2, Syria’s air defense forces shot down seven out of eight missiles launched by Israeli warplanes during a raid that targeted Aleppo, Russian Rear Adm. Vadim Kulit said on July 20. Kulit then said on July 24 that Russians forces were helping Syria thwart Israeli attacks, and that Russian aerial defense systems shot down missiles launched from Israeli jets at a target near Homs on July 22 night. The Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper said Moscow had voiced concern to Washington over the increasing number of Israeli attacks and that Washington was also concerned. (AP, 07.20.21, Haaretz, 07.24.21, Haaretz, 07.25.21)
• Russian and Syrian agencies have signed 15 agreements on cooperation, head of Russia’s National Defense Control Center Mikhail Mizintsev said on July 26. According to Mizintsev, more than 160 tons of humanitarian aid as part of the Russian inter-agency delegation’s visit to Syria. Over 2 million Syrian citizens have returned to their homeland, he said. (TASS, 07.26.21)

Cyber security:

• “You know, we’ve seen how cyber threats, including ransomware attacks, increasingly are able to cause damage and disruption to the real world. I can’t guarantee this, and you’re as informed as I am, but I think it’s more likely we’re going to end up—well, if we end up in a war, a real shooting war with a major power, it’s going to be as a consequence of a cyber breach of great consequence. And it’s increasing exponentially—the capabilities,” President Biden said in his remarks at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence on July 27. Biden noted a growing number of cyberattacks against government agencies and private industry that U.S. officials have linked to Russia and China (White House press office, 07.27.21, RFE/RL, 07.28.21)
• President Biden on July 28 issued a new directive instructing federal agencies to develop voluntary cybersecurity goals for companies that operate U.S. critical infrastructure, a move that came as senior officials said the administration was exploring the possibility of pursuing mandatory standards. (The Wall Street Journal, 07.28.21)
• The number of ransomware gangs stretches into the dozens and continues to proliferate as the economics remain so profitable. FBI tracked 100 gangs, using an algorithm to rank them and the effect that each has on the economy. The largest one rakes in an estimated $200m a year in revenues. (Financial Times, 07.30.21)

Election interference:

• “In today’s PDB you all prepared for me, look what Russia is doing already about the 2022 elections and misinformation. It’s a pure violation of our sovereignty. Now you see what’s happening. More people get their information from the Internet than they do from any other outlet. What’s—all the disinformation that’s having real consequences in terms of people’s access,” President Biden said in his remarks at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence on July 27. (White House press office, 07.27.21)

Energy exports from CIS:

• A dozen Senate Republicans said July 28 they plan to block two of President Biden's Treasury Department nominations over the administration's decision not to sanction Russia's Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline project into Europe. Brian Nelson was nominated to be the Treasury undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, and Elizabeth Rosenburg was tapped for the assistant secretary for terrorism financing post. (The Wall Street Journal, 07.29.21)
• Natural gas prices in Europe and the UK have soared to some of the highest levels on record, threatening to raise costs for households and businesses as global supplies of the critical fossil fuel remain tight. In the UK, prices have risen above 100p a therm, the highest level since 2005 and a record for the summer. In Europe, prices have hit €40 per megawatt hour for the first time. (Financial Times, 07.30.21)
• Ukraine’s pipeline company expect to receive $1.3 billion this year to move gas from Ukraine’s Russian border to the EU. $1 billion of this amount is spent on running the pipeline company -- paying 11,000 employees and performing maintenance. Without a long-term transit contract after 2024, the pipeline network will only serve 10 bcm of imports and 20 bcm of domestic production. To survive, Yuriy Vitrenko, the Chairman of Naftogaz said, the company would have to decommission “more than 50%” of current capacity. (Ukraine Business News, 07.26.21.)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• “I just had an interesting meeting, as you all know, with my very close friend, Vladimir Putin. ... When I was with Mr. Putin, who has a real problem—he is—he’s sitting on top of an economy that has nuclear weapons and oil wells and nothing else. Nothing else. Their economy is—what?—the eighth smallest in the world now—largest in the world? He knows—he knows he’s in real trouble, which makes him even more dangerous, in my view,” President Biden said in his remarks at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence on July 27. (White House press office, 07.27.21)
  • The Kremlin scoffed at Biden's assessment that Russia "has nuclear weapons and oil wells and nothing else," saying the speech appeared to be tailored toward the U.S. intelligence community. "(The United States) can hardly be called a partner. It is more like an opponent or a 'vis-a-vis'," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists in Moscow on July 28. (RFE/RL, 07.28.21)
• A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers are backing a bill that would give the State Department the right to disclose the names of tycoons, officials, and other individuals whom it bans because allowing them entry could have “serious adverse foreign policy consequences” -- often linked to alleged corruption, human rights abuses, and transnational aggression. (RFE/RL, 07.29.21)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government is forcing the U.S. diplomatic mission in Russia to stop employing foreign nationals in any capacity beginning next week, slashing the number of personnel staffing the U.S. Embassy and consulates by around 90 percent and leaving only a skeleton crew of U.S. diplomats. Russia’s decision to bar the U.S. Embassy and consulates from hiring foreign nationals goes into effect on Aug. 1. The move will leave around 120 officials working in Moscow, with zero locally hired employees, known as “foreign service nationals.” This is down from roughly 350 U.S. diplomats and 1,900 foreign service nationals operating the U.S. Embassy in Moscow and consulates across Russia a decade ago, according to current and former U.S. diplomats. The United States said Friday it has laid off nearly 200 local staff members working for its diplomatic missions in Russia ahead of the deadline. (Foreign Policy, 07.30.21, AP, 07.30.21)
• Michigan lawmaker Haley Stevens is pushing for a bipartisan effort to secure the release of Paul N. Whelan, who has not contacted his family or the U.S. Embassy since July 4. Whelan, convicted last year in Russia on espionage charges he denies, has been placed in solitary confinement in a remote prison for an unknown violation of the penitentiary's regulations  (The New York Times, 07.29.21, RFE/RL, 07.30.21)
• A court in Moscow has fined Google 3 million rubles ($40,750) for the U.S. technology giant's refusal to localize the personal data of its users in Russia. Moscow has been seeking to force foreign firms to open offices in Russia and store Russians' personal data on its territory. (RFE/RL, 07.29.21)
• U.S. population growth, an economic driver, grinds to a halt. Early estimates show the total U.S. population grew 0.35% for the year ended July 1, 2020, the lowest ever documented, and growth is expected to remain near flat this year. Nicholas Eberstadt, a researcher at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, noted that China, Russia and nations in the European Union have had fertility rates below replacement level for much longer than the U.S.—and have older populations in general. (The Wall Street Journal, 07.25.21)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia reported 799 coronavirus deaths on July 29, tying the national record of pandemic-related fatalities for the third time in less than a month Russia’s Covid-19 task force previously reported 799 deaths on July 16 and July 24. (The Moscow Times, 07.29.21) Here’s a link to RFE/RL’s interactive map of the virus’ spread around the world, including in Russia and the rest of post-Soviet Eurasia.
• Real disposable incomes in Russia grew in annual terms in the second quarter for the first-time since early 2020, while unemployment has almost returned to pre-pandemic levels, data showed on July 28. Real disposable incomes, which are inflation-adjusted incomes that exclude mandatory payments, increased 6.8% year-on-year in April-June, data from the Federal Statistics Service, or Rosstat, showed. Real disposable incomes have been falling each quarter from the second quarter of 2020 when they staged the deepest decline in decades. (Reuters, 07.28.21)
• Russia's GDP increased by 4.6% year on year in 1H21, according to the estimates of the Ministry of Economic Development. In June 2021 alone, GDP was up by 8.5% y/y, in 2Q21 by 10.1% y/y. Notably, in 2Q21 GDP grew by 1.5% compared to the same quarter of pre-crisis 2019, thus marking full recovery mostly driven by domestic demand, the ministry commented. As reported by bne IntelliNews, as the economy continued a strong bounce back, this month the ministry upgraded its growth forecast for 2021 to 3.8% from 2.8% and does not expect economic growth to go below 3% annually post the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis. Most recently President Vladimir Putin has set a goal of 4% annual GDP growth. (bne IntelliNews, 07.30.21)
• Siberia and other Northern Russian regions are becoming increasingly vulnerable to the impact of the climate crisis, which is accelerating exceptionally fast in the Arctic regions, the international Climate Crisis Advisory Group (CCAG) said in a new report on July 29. The Arctic is warming roughly three times faster than the planet as a whole, scientists warned in the report. Annual Arctic temperatures are now 3.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level, while Earth in general has warmed by 1.2 C. (The Moscow Times, 07.30.21)
• Russian electoral authorities have disqualified a top Communist Party candidate from running in September’s parliamentary elections, the latest opposition figure to be barred ahead of the vote. The Central Election Commission said on July 24 that Pavel Grudinin was excluded from the party list because the Prosecutor-General’s Office had found he held foreign assets. (RFE/RL, 07.24.21)
• Police have raided the Moscow apartment of Roman Dobrokhotov, editor in chief of The Insider investigative website, just days after it was added to Russia's controversial registry of "foreign agents." (RFE/RL, 07.28.21)
• The chief editor of The Project investigative news outlet has left Russia with no plans to return and is trying to evacuate his staff after the group was declared an "undesirable" organization by the Prosecutor-General's Office in Moscow. Roman Badanin told Reuters in an interview in New York that was published on July 29 that he had no plans to return to Russia in the foreseeable future. He said that's because he may face criminal prosecution and imprisonment there for up to six years under Russia's controversial 2015 law on "undesirable organizations." (RFE/RL, 07.30.21)
• Russia's media regulator, Roskomnadzor, has blocked the website of jailed opposition politician Alexei Navalny in a widening crackdown by authorities against media and civil organizations ahead of parliamentary elections in September. (RFE/RL, 07.26.21.)
• A court in Russia's Siberian region of Yakutia has confined to forced psychiatric treatment a shaman Aleksandr Gabyshev, who was stopped by authorities several times in his attempts to march to Moscow by foot “to drive President Vladimir Putin out of the Kremlin.” (RFE/RL, 07.26.21.)
• A court in southern Russia has sentenced three Jehovah's Witnesses to prison for belonging to the banned religious group, in the latest persecution against its members. The Leninskiy District Court in Rostov-on-Don sentenced Arsen Avanesov and Aleksandr Parkov to 61/2 years in prison on July 29. Arsen’s father, Vilen Avanesov, was given six years. (RFE/RL, 07.30.21)
• A Russian court in the southwestern city of Rostov-on-Don has handed lengthy prison terms to the first group of individuals from the North Caucasus region of North Ossetia who took part in a massive rally in April 2020 protesting coronavirus measures. The Lenin district court on July 27 found Artur Bugulov, Magomed Kadyrov, David Okruashvili, Aslan Gasiyev, and Zaza Tsaritov guilty of taking part in mass disorder and sentenced them to prison terms of between 5 years and 5 1/2 years. (RFE/RL, 07.27.21)

Defense and aerospace:

• A Russian space-laboratory module has successfully docked with the International Space Station (ISS), adding room for scientific experiments and living space after a 14-year delay. NASA and the Russian space agency Roskosmos say Nauka module, which means "science" in Russian, docked with the ISS at 1:29 p.m. GMT on July 29. The space station then lost control of its orientation for 47 minutes on Thursday, when  Nauka accidentally fired its thrusters a few hours after docking (RFE/RL, 07.29.21, AP, 07.30.21)
• President Vladimir Putin said Sunday that Russia's navy was capable of delivering lethal strikes against underwater and aerial enemy targets during a parade of warships in the port city of St. Petersburg. The Russian leader's boast comes days after military officials announced tests of advanced new weapons, some of which come from an arsenal Putin has described as "invincible." "The Russian navy today has everything it needs to guarantee the protection of our country and our national interests," he said. (AFP, 07.25.21)
  • The frigates of the navies of Iran, India, and Pakistan which took part in the Main Naval Parade on Russia's Navy Day have left Kronstadt and St. Petersburg, the Russian Defense Ministry said on July 29. (Interfax, 07.29.21)
• Russia’s Voronezh Joint-Stock Aircraft Building Company has begun work on a plane designed to enable Russia’s military-political leadership to exercise nuclear command, control, and communications (N3) in the event of a nuclear war while airborne. The design of the aircraft—nicknamed “Judgement Day Plane” by the Russian media—is based on the long-range white-body airliner Il-96-400M, which was developed by the Moscow-based design bureau of the Ilyushin Aviation Complex, part of Russia's state-owned United Aircraft Corporation. (Russia Matters, 07.30.21)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• Swiss prosecutors have closed a decade-long investigation into the money-laundering scandal exposed by Russian lawyer Sergei Magnitsky, the latest in a string of setbacks in the country’s efforts to tackle financial crime. Announcing its decision on July 27, the Swiss federal prosecutor said: “Based on its extensive inquiries, [the federal prosecutor] can now confirm that the investigation has not revealed any evidence that would justify charges being bought against anyone in Switzerland. The collapse of the case comes amid accusations of bribery and political meddling at the highest levels of the Swiss Federal Prosecutor’s office.  (Financial Times, 07.28.21)
• A British judge says she plans to rule later this year on a libel case brought over claims in a book about the ascent of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Judge Amanda Tipples told the High Court in London on July 29 that her judgment would come in October. The case against journalist Catherine Belton and the publishers of her book Putin’s People: How the KGB Took Back Russia And Then Took on The West was brought by several wealthy Russians, including Russian-born billionaire Roman Abramovich. The Russian state-owned energy giant Rosneft, led by Putin's close ally Igor Sechin, is also suing Belton and the United Kingdom's arm of HarperCollins. Two other Russian billionaires named in the book, Pyotr Aven and Mikhail Fridman, settled with HarperCollins after the publisher agreed to make changes in subsequent editions. (RFE/RL, 07.30.21)
• The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague has awarded Yukos Capital $5bn in compensation in its case against Russia, including interest and legal costs, RBC business portal reported on July 29 citing an announcement from the shareholders of the dismantled Russian oil giant Yukos. (bne IntelliNews, 07.30.21)
• A Lithuanian court has sentenced politician Algirdas Paleckis to six years in prison after finding him guilty of spying for Russia. The Siauliai district court also ruled on July 27 that businessman Deimantas Bertauskas, who testified against Paleckis, would avoid any criminal prosecution in the case. (RFE/RL, 07.27.21)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• The European Union’s planned carbon border tax could cost Russian exporters with a large carbon footprint at least 1.1 billion euros annually, the highest levy of any country, the RBC news website reported on July 26. The border tariff—proposed as part of the EU’s sweeping plans to tackle climate change and become the first carbon-neutral continent by 2050—would be levied against countries that fail to take similarly aggressive steps to cut their own emissions. It would be gradually phased in from 2026, entering into full force in 2035. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 07.26.21.)
• In a communiqué, parts of which were seen by the Financial Times on the evening of July 23, G20 environment ministers said they would boost their climate targets, known as “nationally determined contributions”, ahead of the UN COP26 climate summit in Glasgow in November. However, the ministers failed to reach agreement on phasing out coal, or removing subsidies for fossil fuels, because of opposition from Russia, China, India and Saudi Arabia. (Financial Times, 07.23.21)
• Russia dispatched nearly 100 tons of humanitarian aid to Cuba, the Defense Ministry said on July 24, following unprecedented street protests over the communist country's worst economic crisis in decades. (AFP, 07.24.21)
• Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin on July 26 visited the disputed Kuril Islands and said authorities wanted to establish a free economic zone there, sparking a protest from Japan. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 07.26.21.)
• Brazil plans to cancel its orders for Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine, Reuters reported on July 29, as Moscow seeks to shore up domestic supplies in the face of a coronavirus surge fueled by the Delta variant. Brazil would be the second Latin American country to cancel its Sputnik V order after Guatemala did so this week. Two others, Argentina and Mexico, have complained of second-dose shortages amid Russia’s own campaign to kickstart its lagging vaccination drive. (The Moscow Times, 07.30.21)
• Russia has approved clinical trials of a combination of its Sputnik V and the Anglo-Swedish drug maker AstraZeneca’s coronavirus vaccine that will run through next spring. Five Russian clinics will hold AstraZeneca and Sputnik V trials involving 150 people, with testing wrapping up in early March 2022, according to the entry in Russia's state drug register published on July 26. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 07.27.21)

Ukraine:

• Ukraine succumbed to Chinese pressure to remove its name from an international statement about human rights abuses in China’s western Xinjiang region by threatening to limit trade and withhold access to COVID-19 vaccines, Ukrainian officials and lawmakers with knowledge of the issue told RFE/RL. (RFE/RL, 07.28.21)
• US President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are not going to attend the first summit of Crimean Platform, which is slated for August 23. George Kent, the Deputy Assistant Secretary said so as quoted in the interview with Radio Liberty. "We will send a member of the Cabinet–that is, not the president, not the vice president but a member of the Cabinet. And we know it's very important", Kent replied to the question about the U.S. presence on the summit. (112 International, 07.26.21)
• “I think that we [in the United States] have a very reliable foundation of support. Every year our Congress allocates funds to support Ukraine in various fields–up to USD 750 million a year,” Charge d'Affaires of the United States in Ukraine George Kent has said. (Ukrinform, 07.26.21)
• "I agree with the goal of 'de-oligarchization.' How it's done is another issue. There are various details and this is very important," George Kent, deputy assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, who oversees policy toward Ukraine, told RFE/RL in an interview in Kyiv conducted on July 20. (RFE/RL, 07.24.21)
• After President Trump ordered a freeze in 2019 on security assistance to Ukraine, puzzled national security officials asked whether he was trying to “gain leverage” over its leaders in his dealings with the country, according to internal emails the Trump administration successfully fought to keep secret during his first impeachment. The New York Times obtained the emails via a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit, fulfilling a request filed on Sept. 26, 2019. (The New York Times, 07.29.21)
• President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has replaced the head of Ukraine's armed forces -- a move that comes as Kyiv presses for deeper NATO ties while its seven-year war against Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine grinds on. Presidential spokesman Serhiy Nikiforov said on July 27 that General Ruslan Khomchak will be replaced by General Valery Zaluzhny as the commander of some 250,000 active Ukrainian troops. (RFE/RL, 07.28.21)
• A serviceman of the 57th separate motorized infantry brigade Dmytro Syvokin, who was wounded by shelling in the area of the Joint Force Operation (JFO), died in Kharkiv hospital, the Suspilne publication said. (Interfax, 07.26.21)
• Kyiv-based missile maker Artem holding company says it was awarded a $200 million contract from the unnamed customer for R-27 medium-range air-to-air missile production. (Defence Blog, 07.28.21)
• The European Court of Human Rights has rejected Russia’s request for interim measures in relation to its complaint against Ukraine over violations of the European Convention on Human Rights, the court said in a press release on July 23. According to earlier reports, the court registered Russia’s first inter-state complaint under application no. 36958/21. (TASS, 07.23.21) Russian press reports that Russia might exit Council of Europe and this court if its compliant is rejected.
• A court in Russia's southwestern city of Rostov-on-Don has sentenced to lengthy prison terms two men for the illegal sale of parts of a S-300 missile complex to Ukraine. The court on July 28 found Russian Denis Lobov and Armenian Ararat Khachatrian guilty of smuggling military equipment that is considered a "state secret" to Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 07.28.21)
• A Ukrainian blockade of the Soviet-built canal that previously provided up to 85 per cent of Crimea’s water supplies has become a flashpoint in an undeclared war, seven years after Russian troops seized Crimea from Ukraine. Col Kyrylo Budanov, chief of Ukraine’s army intelligence unit, said Russia was looking to seize the canal as well as adjacent territory to connect Crimea with the breakaway regions. Russian troops could advance on Nova Kakhovka, the Dnipro river town where the canal begins. (Financial Times, 07.29.21)
• Ukraine’s food exports to the European Union actually dropped by 19% year-on-year, according to the European Commission’s report “Monitoring EU Agri-Food Trade: Developments January-April 2021.” The drop appears to be largely explained by Britain’s withdrawal from the European Single Market on January 1, 2021. (Ukraine Business News, 07.26.21.

Russia’s other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Russia is concerned about the possibility of the Islamic State (IS) terror group (outlawed in Russia) consolidating its positions in northern Afghanistan, Russian Special Presidential Envoy for Afghanistan and Director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Second Asian Department Zamir Kabulov said at an online briefing on July 29. (TASS, 07.29.21)
• The Council of Defence Ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation (SCO) on July 29 stressed the need for actively supporting the peace and reconciliation process in Afghanistan, strengthening counter-terrorism cooperation, and making efforts to maintain regional security and stability. The situation along the borders of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) countries is complicated and tends to deteriorate, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said, addressing a meeting of the SCO’s defense chiefs on July 28. (TASS, 07.28.21, The Express Tribune, 07.30.21)
• The Taliban movement is for now unlikely to seize power in Afghanistan, Russian First Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations Dmitry Polyansky said at a press conference on July 29. Russia’s top diplomat commended the Taliban for being “of sound mind” and accused the Afghan government of stalling power-sharing talks. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov became the latest Russian political figure to praise the militant group this week, with the Kremlin calling it a “powerful force” and Russia's envoy for Afghanistan calling its rapid takeover of border areas “positive” for regional security. (The Moscow Times, 07.23.21, Interfax, 07.29.21)
• Russia will bolster Central Asian ally Tajikistan's military with weapons, equipment and training amid a "deteriorating" situation in neighboring Afghanistan, Moscow's defense minister said July 28 on a visit to the country. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 07.28.21)
• A Tajik border guard was wounded in a shoot-out in an area close to a disputed segment of the Tajik-Kyrgyz border over the weekend, the latest flareup of violence in the volatile region. (RFE/RL, 07.26.21.)
• Three nephews of Tajik President Emomali Rahmon have severely beaten the Central Asian nation’s health minister and other officials following their mother's death from COVID-19, sources close to the government have told RFE/RL. (RFE/RL, 07.26.21)
• U.S. President Joe Biden has met with the self-exiled Belarusian opposition leader Svyatlana Tikhanovskaya in Washington, declaring after their talks that the United States "stands with the people of Belarus in their quest for democracy and universal human rights." In a statement on Twitter after his meeting with Tikhanovskaya , Biden said he was "honored" to host her at the White House on the morning of July 28. Tikhanovskaya said in a Twitter statement that Biden had made "a powerful sign of solidarity with millions of fearless Belarusians who are peacefully fighting for their freedom." (RFE/RL, 07.28.21)
• Belarus' authoritarian president said Friday he's prepared to invite Russian troops into the country if such a move is necessary to ensure the security of both Belarus and Russia. (AP, 07.30.21)
• Dozens of top Belarusian IT companies and thousands of software engineers and others have fled the country, taking their expertise to nearby nations, potentially to reshape the map of tech prowess in Eastern Europe. The Polish Investment and Trade Agency supported more than 4,000 visas for Belarusian IT workers last year. The agency reported that 30 Belarusian IT companies have set up offices with 1,800 employees and investments of $76.8 million. Invest Lithuania spokeswoman Agne Rasciute said that at least 41 Belarusian companies had set up offices in Lithuania and that dozens more were considering the move. Belarusian firms planned to move more than 2,000 people–IT specialists and their families–to Lithuania, she said. (The Washington Post, 07.25.21)
• A court in Belarus has labeled the Polish-funded Belsat television channel “extremist” amid an intensifying crackdown on media and civil society. (RFE/RL, 07.28.21)
• Joint military exercises involving about 4,000 troops from 15 allied and partner countries, including the United States, have kicked off in Georgia. The exercises are being staged at five training locations in Georgia and are scheduled to run from July 26 to August 6, a U.S. Army statement said. (RFE/RL, 07.26.21.)
• The Armenian Defense Ministry said three of its servicemen were killed and two wounded on July 28 after the Azerbaijani armed forces “once again provoked a violation of the cease-fire in the northeastern section of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border” by launching attacks against Armenian positions." The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry accused Armenia of escalating the situation. It said that units of the Armenian armed forces opened fire on positions of Azerbaijani troops stationed in the Kalbacar district shortly after midnight, wounding two Azerbaijani soldiers. (RFE/RL, 07.28.21)
• The United States and the European Union voiced deep concern about the future of Georgia's democracy on July 29, a day after the collapse of a political agreement that has put the Caucasus nation on a path to deeper crisis. The leader of the ruling Georgian Dream party, Irakli Kobakhidze, annulled an EU-brokered deal with opposition parties on July 28 after only three months, blaming the opposition for the agreement’s failure. (RFE/RL, 07.30.21)
• Acting Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian has suggested that Russian border posts be placed along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border to secure its safe demarcation as simmering tensions between the two South Caucasus nations threaten to boil over again. Speaking at a government session on July 29, Pashinian also said that observers from the member states of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) could also monitor the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, adding that the Minsk Group of the Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and other formats could be acceptable alternatives to secure a peaceful border delimitation. (RFE/RL, 07.29.21)
• Moldovan President Maia Sandu has nominated former Finance Minister Natalia Gavrilita to try to become the country's new prime minister. The next step will be Gavrilita's approval by parliament, where Sandu's pro-Western PAS party enjoys a majority after winning snap elections earlier this month on a platform of carrying out reforms and tackling corruption. (RFE/RL, 07.30.21)

IV. Quoteworthy:

• No significant developments.