This Week’s Highlights

• Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Russia “may drop bombs and not just in the path but right on target,” after an incident in which the British destroyer H.M.S. Defender sailed near the coast of Crimea on June 23, according to reports by RFE/RL and The New York Times. He warned the United Kingdom not to “test our strength.” Meanwhile, British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab claimed that "no shots were fired" as the British ship was "conducting innocent passage through Ukrainian territorial waters," RFE/RL reported.              
• At talks on June 24, a proposal by France and Germany to hold an EU-Russia summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin faced fierce resistance from some of the member states, RFE/RL reported. As a result, the participants only agreed to maintain and develop a dialogue with Russia. "I would have liked to see a bolder step here, but it is also good this way and we will continue to work on it,"  German leader Angela Merkel said, according to reports by The Moscow Times, AFP and The Wall Street Journal.
• Writing in an op-ed in Die Zeit, Putin noted that “Russia is in favor of restoring a comprehensive partnership with Europe,” AP reported.
• U.S. Ambassador John Sullivan has returned to Moscow. "Arrived back in Moscow today. Ready to work with...Russia on our goal of a stable and predictable relationship between our countries," Sullivan said. Russian Ambassador Anatoly Antonov returned to the United States on June 20, telling Russian media that he is optimistic and wants to help build "equal and pragmatic" relations, RFE/RL reported.
• On June 21, forces of the Taliban movement seized the Sherkhon-Bandar border crossing checkpoint on the border between Afghanistan and Tajikistan. Following a clash with the Taliban, 134 Afghan servicemen were forced to retreat into the territory of the neighboring state [Tajikistan], according to BBC Monitoring.
• Acting Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian’s party has defied opinion polls ahead of Armenia's June 20 snap elections in a landslide victory that gives it a parliamentary majority, RFE/RL reported.

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security:

• No significant developments.

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said a nuclear deal with Iran is "within reach," the TASS news agency cited him as saying. Iran and six world powers adjourned nuclear talks on June 20 for consultations in their capitals. (Reuters, 06.25.21)

Great Power rivalry/New Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• When the British destroyer H.M.S. Defender sailed near the coast of Crimea on June 23, it was supposed to be quietly demonstrating that the waters legally belonged to Ukraine despite Russia’s annexation of the Black Sea peninsula. The Defender’s captain, Cmdr. Vince Owen, made it clear that the ship deliberately sailed close to the Crimean coast to assert the position that Crimea and the waters around it legally belong to Ukraine. “With the U.K. and the Royal Navy, our deployment is here to maintain international order, and uphold that for the global peace and security,” Commander Owen told the BBC. (The New York Times, 06.24.21)
  • U.K. prime minister Boris Johnson has stood by the decision to sail the warship. “The important point is that we don’t recognize the Russian annexation of Crimea, this is part of a sovereign Ukrainian territory,” he told reporters on June 24. “It was entirely right that we should vindicate the law and pursue freedom of navigation in the way that we did, take the shortest route between two points, and that’s what we did.” (Financial Times, 05.24.21)
  • British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab reiterated at a meeting with reporters during a visit to Singapore that "no shots were fired" as the British ship was "conducting innocent passage through Ukrainian territorial waters." (RFE/RL, 06.24.21)              
  • Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on June 24 that British Ambassador Deborah Bronner was summoned and will be handed a demarche—a stern telling off in diplomatic terms—over the incident, which happened a day earlier. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov ratcheted up the rhetoric. Next time Russia “may drop bombs and not just in the path but right on target,” Ryabkov said. “Those who try to test our strength are taking high risks,” Mr. Ryabkov said, according to Interfax, a Russian news agency, and suggested Britain rename the destroyer H.M.S. “Aggressor.” (RFE/RL, 06.24.21, The New York Times, 06.24.21)             
  •  Moscow said its warship fired warning shots and a military plane dropped bombs in the path of the British destroyer the HMS Defender to force it to change course from the area near the Crimean city of Sevastopol. (RFE/RL, 06.24.21)        
• Hundreds of British paratroopers from the Air Assault Brigade 16 landed in the Jordanian desert. They were joined by Jordanian counterparts and began a training exercise aimed at penetrating and capturing enemy territory. The British Ministry of Defense announced that the exercise is a signal to Russia that the UK and Jordan are prepared to operate in Syria if the need arises.  (Jerusalem Post, 06.25.21)
• The Russian Navy on June 25 started largescale maneuvers in the Mediterranean Sea involving surface ships, diesel submarines, and aircraft, the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement. As reported earlier, a UK Royal Force strike group led by the HMS Queen Elizabeth aircraft carrier has entered the Mediterranean Sea. (Interfax, 06.25.21)
• Roughly two dozen Russian combat ships, submarines and support vessels have been training to destroy a carrier strike group in the Pacific, the Russian Ministry of Defense said this week, shedding light on recent drills. (Business Insider, 06.23.21)
• The Pentagon trained massive strikes on Russia during a Northern Edge exercise held in Alaska in May, chief of the Russian General Staff's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) Adm. Igor Kostyukov, said at the 9th Moscow Conference on International Security.. (Interfax, 06.24.21)
• Writing an op-ed in German newspaper Die Zeit, Putin hailed postwar efforts to restore mutual trust but blamed NATO’s eastward expansion to embrace former Soviet bloc countries in Central and Eastern Europe and ex-Soviet Baltic republics for the deteriorating security. “The whole system of European security has now degraded significantly,” Putin wrote. “Tensions are rising and the risks of a new arms race are becoming real.” He noted that “Russia is in favor of restoring a comprehensive partnership with Europe.” (AP, 06.22,21)

• The administration of U.S. President Joe Biden is sharply reducing the number of U.S. antimissile systems in the Middle East in a major realignment of its military footprint there as it focuses the armed services on challenges from China and Russia, administration officials said. (The Wall Street Journal, 06.19.21)
• A new strategic concept that NATO is developing will bring European security close to the Cold War era, if it embraces the approaches declared by the alliance in its latest documents, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said at the 9th Moscow Conference on International Security on June 24. The NATO summit's decision to enlarge the defense budget and to upgrade the nuclear deterrence potential will lead to years of military confrontation in Europe, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu told the conference (Interfax, 06.23.21, TASS, 06.25.21)
• Germany’s authorities say they have arrested a Russian citizen accused of passing sensitive information from a German university to Moscow in return for cash. The suspect, identified only as Ilnur N., was suspected of "working for a Russian secret service since early October 2020 at the latest," the Office of the Federal Public Prosecutor said in a statement on June 21. (RFE/RL, 06.21.21)          

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping will hold talks via video link on June 28. According to the Kremlin, the heads of state will exchange congratulations and assess the current state of strategic partnership between Russia and China and the prospects for its development. They also plan to discuss pressing bilateral and global issues. (TASS, 06.25.21)
• Motorized infantry of Russia’s Eastern Military District, army and tactical aviation aircraft will participate in the West/Interaction 2021 drills that will run in China in the second half of the year, the District’s press office reported on June 22. (TASS, 06.22.21)
• “I cannot see long term harmony between China and Russia in the Arctic,” NATO’s most senior military officer Stuart Peach said. He went on to say he had noticed Beijing’s joint operations with Moscow evolve from being “relatively minor” to involving “major exercises and training opportunities” in recent years. But he dismissed any suggestion that the two countries are heading toward a strategic partnership. (Financial Times, 06.25.21)
• After intense disputes over market shares, it seems China and Russia have put their differences aside, and work continues on their widebody joint-project, the CR929. The China-Russia International Aircraft Cooperation is looking to begin building the aircraft this year and for mass production to start from 2025 onwards. (Simpleflying, 06.25.21)

Missile defense:

• Claims that the U.S. global missile defense network does not target Russia and China do not hold water, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said. "The increasingly massive deployment of missile defense networks aligned with offensive systems is yet another trend of recent years," Shoigu said at the Moscow Conference on International Security on June 23. (Interfax, 06.23.21)
• Russia will consider in its military planning the United States’ deployment of components of the land-based Aegis Ashore ballistic missile defense system near the Polish community of Redzikowo, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told reporters on June 25.  (TASS, 06.25.21)

Arms control:

• Russia has sent a series of proposals to the US on how both countries can stabilize bilateral relations, Russian Ambassador Antonov said on Monday. According to the ambassador, in the coming days, Russia hopes to discuss with the US how to implement the provisions of the strategic stability statement. (TASS, 06.22.21)
• Russia says it has notified its partners under the Open Skies arms control treaty that it will leave the group in December, following the departure from the accord by the United States late last year. (RFE/RL, 06.18.21)

Counter-terrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• U.S. and allies on June 23 increased pressure on Russia to keep humanitarian aid route into Syria via Bab al-Hawa open. Last week Biden did not secure a commitment from his Russian counterpart, Putin, to renew a U.N. cross-border aid operation into Syria, a senior administration official said ahead of an expected showdown over the issue at the United Nations Security Council next month. (Reuters, 06.16.21, NBC, 06.23.21)
• Russia and the United States could embark on a path of constructive cooperation, Russian General Staff Chief Valery Gerasimov said. "As for Syria, it has been stated that, despite the very difficult period in bilateral relations, our servicemen have still been able to maintain dialogue there," Peskov said on the Ekho Moskvy radio station on June 17. Putin and Biden stated at the Geneva summit that their militaries are able to maintain dialogue in Syria despite the problems in relations between Moscow and Washington, Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said. (Interfax, 06.17.21, Interfax, 06.21.21)
• Russian soldiers blocked the path of a US military patrol in northeastern Syria on June 20 for allegedly violating a security protocol, according to Russian media. Four US armored vehicles were turned back along the M4 road, 10 kilometers west of the town of Tal Tamr, Hassakeh province, after Russian troops intervened, state-controlled outlet RT reported, quoting Kurdish sources. (Al-Araby, 06.21.21)
• Russia has for the first time deployed two MiG-31 interceptor jets capable of carrying the hyped Kinzhal hypersonic missile for war games in Syria, media reported June 25. (The Moscow Times, 06.25.21)

Cyber security:

• Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has said that Poland's security services were scrambling to "secure the many inboxes" of ranking politicians victimized by an "external hack cooked up at the Kremlin." His statement on June 18 came after the chairman of the ruling Law and Justice party, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, described a "large-scale" cyberattack on leading Polishpoliticians there that Kaczynski also said was launched from inside Russia. (RFE/RL, 06.19.21)
• A Ukrainian hacker has been sentenced to seven years in prison for his role in a notorious cybercrime group that stole credit- and debit-card information from millions of people in the United States and other countries. The U.S. Department of Justice announced the sentencing of Andriy Kolpakov, 33, on June 24. Kolpakov, who pleaded guilty to wire-fraud and computer-hacking charges, was also ordered to pay $2.5 million in restitution, the department said in a press release. (RFE/RL, 06.25.21)

Energy exports from CIS:

• U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has reiterated warnings about the planned Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline during meetings in Berlin with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Foreign Minister Heiko Maas on June 23. Blinken said he and Maas agreed that concrete steps are needed to "ensure that Russia cannot use energy as a coercive tool directed at Ukraine or anyone else in Europe. “Blinken is scheduled to travel from Berlin to Paris to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron and then on to the Vatican. He closes his trip on June 29 with a meeting of the Group of 20 major economies in the Italian city of Matera (RFE/RL, 06.24.21)              
• "Armin Laschet, frontrunner to become Germany’s next chancellor, defended the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, the Gazprom project bringing natural gas directly to Germany from Russia across the Baltic Sea, saying Germany will need more gas as it phases out nuclear energy and coal-fired power. But he also had a warning for Moscow: The pipeline “must not become a geopolitical instrument against Ukraine”. “Ukraine’s interests must be safeguarded,” he said. “And if the Russians don’t stick to that, the basis of the NS2 deal will cease to exist.” (Financial Times, 06.21.21)
• Russia has exacerbated a shortage of European natural gas supplies that has driven prices to a 13-year high by quietly limiting top-up sales to customers, according to executives and analysts. Pipeline exports of natural gas from Russia’s state-backed monopoly Gazprom to continental Europe have dropped roughly one-fifth in 2021 on pre-pandemic levels despite a sharp rebound in demand and low stockpiles of the important fuel. The imbalance has helped send prices in Europe to the highest levels since 2008, increasing energy costs for homes and businesses. (Financial Times, 06.24.21)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Ambassador John Sullivan has returned to Moscow, two months after leaving amid worsening relations between the United States and Russia. Arrived back in Moscow today. Ready to work with...Russia on our goal of a stable and predictable relationship between our countries," Sullivan said in a statement shared on Twitter by the embassy spokesman. Russian Ambassador Anatoly Antonov returned to the United States on June 20, telling Russian media that he is optimistic and wants to help build "equal and pragmatic" relations. (RFE/RL, 06.24.21, RFE/RL, 06.22.21)          
• Russia and the United States will soon start exploring the issue of resuming operation of embassies and issuing visas, the format of such consultations is being determined now, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Yevgeny Ivanov told reporters on June 21.  (TASS, 06.21.21)
• Biden’s national security adviser said on June 20 that the United States was preparing more sanctions against Russia in response to the poisoning of Aleksei A. Navalny. Mr. Sullivan was vague when pressed on the timing of the sanctions or what they would include, saying only that additional action would come “as soon as we develop the packages to ensure that we’re getting the right targets.”  (The New York Times, 06.21.21)
• The Russian State Prosecutor's Office has banned the U.S. nongovernmental organization Bard College after labelling it "undesirable." The office said on June 21 that the activity of educational NGO Bard College "represents a threat to the constitutional order and security of the Russian Federation. "Bard was not immediately available to comment. (RFE/RL, 06.21.21)          
• Russian authorities say they have detained a suspect after the body of an American graduate student who went missing this week in the Nizhny Novgorod region of Russia was thought to have been discovered after a three-day search. Police opened a criminal investigation when 34-year-old Catherine Serou was unaccounted for after she got into a car "with a stranger" earlier in the week. (RFE/RL, 06.19.21)
• The U.S. Justice Department has charged five individuals, including a Russian citizen, with conspiring to illegally export defense articles to Russia in violation of the Arms Export Control Act. (RFE/RL, 06.22.21)              
• The U.S., British and Canadian embassies in Russia on June 25 hung rainbow flags on their buildings in Moscow in honor of LGBT Pride Month celebrated worldwide. (The Moscow Times, 06.25.21)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia has reported a record 601 deaths from COVID-19 in the past day as a surge in coronavirus cases attributed to the presence of the delta variant sweeps across the country. The government coronavirus task force on June 25 reported 20,393 new cases in the previous 24 hours, including 7,916 in Moscow alone. That total was the most for a single day in the capital since late January. (RFE/RL, 06.25.21) Here’s a link to RFE/RL’s interactive map of the virus’ spread around the world, including in Russia and the rest of post-Soviet Eurasia.
• The World Health Organization has raised concerns about possible cross contamination and insufficient sterilization checks during an inspection at a factory involved in manufacturing Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine. The organization outlined six production infringements at a Pharmstandard plant located in Ufa—one of four sites the WHO inspection team visited as part of evaluating Russia’s application to have its homemade Sputnik V jab granted emergency authorization. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 06.23.21)
• Russian industrial production for May advanced 11.8% from 7.6% in April, which was also revised up from the previous result of 7.2%, RosStat said on June 24.  (bne IntelliNews, 06.24.21)
• Putin has promised billions of rubles in additional spending in the months remaining before legislative elections in September. Putin was addressing a congress of the ruling United Russia party in Moscow on June 19. Putin also proposed that his foreign minister and his defense minister will head the candidates’ list for the dominant United Russia party in September’s parliamentary election. Notably absent from the list announced at a party convention was Dmitry Medvedev, the former president and prime minister who is United Russia’s chairman. (AP, 06.19.21, RFE/RL, 06.19.21)
• Russia's parliamentary elections in September will be held over three days to limit the spread of coronavirus, the head of the poll body said June 18, as new cases hit a record in Moscow. Voting will be staggered from Sept. 17 to Sept. 19. (AFP, 06.19.21)
• More Russians are legally deprived of the right to run for office today than they were during the Soviet period, according to newly published research by the Golos independent election monitor. Golos estimates that at least 9 million Russians, or 8% of the population, have been stripped of so-called “passive suffrage” even before Russian lawmakers tightened election laws in recent months and shut out members of jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny’s movement. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 06.22.21)
• The UN rights chief said June 21 she was "dismayed" by the Kremlin's moves to undermine the right to voice critical opinions and participate in Russia's forthcoming elections. "I am dismayed by recent measures that further undermine people's right to express critical views, and their ability to take part in the parliamentary elections scheduled in September," Michelle Bachelet said. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 06.21.21)
• The Kremlin has announced the date of Putin's live, nationally televised call-in show: June 30. (RFE/RL, 06.21.21)          
• Respondents' mentions of Putin when they were asked to name 10 of the world’s most prominent personalities fell from 34% in 2017 to 15% this year, the Levada Center polling agency said. Soviet dictator Josef Stalin maintained his decade-long hold on the top spot at 39. Three non-Russian figures appeared in the top 20 of Levada’s ranking, with Albert Einstein ninth at 9% and Napoleon and Adolf Hitler near the bottom of the list at 5% each. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 06.21.21)
• Russia is warming 2.5 times faster than the global average. Russia emitted 11.3 tons of carbon dioxide emissions per capita in 2017, compared with seven tons in the European Union, according to Our World in Data, a project based at Oxford University. Melting permafrost is already damaging oil and gas infrastructure as it sinks into Russia's warming soil. (The Wall Street Journal, 06.25.21)
• The government of Russia's Siberian region of Krasnoyarsk has lifted the state of emergency in the Arctic city of Norilsk that was imposed in late May last year following a massive diesel spill. (RFE/RL, 06.22.21)          

Defense and aerospace:

• Russia has denied reports that it is investing in AI technology that would allow humans to control cars, planes and nuclear power plants through microchips implanted into their brains. Previously, it had been reported that the government planned to spend 54 billion rubles ($740 million) on the brain-computer interface project. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 06.20.21)
• The Russian Defense Ministry and the Sukhoi Design Bureau are planning to develop a two-seat Su-57 fifth-generation fighter in its export configuration, Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov said on June 16. (TASS, 06.16.21)
• The deliveries of armaments and military hardware to the Russian Army and Navy are being financed ahead of schedule and advanced weaponry in the Russian Armed Forces will reach over 71% by the end of this year, Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on June 25. (TASS, 06.25.21)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) has ordered Russia to pay almost two million euros ($2.4 million) to the relatives of 11 people who went missing in Chechnya in 2005 during a special operation by the Vostok (East) military unit. (RFE/RL, 06.22.21)              
• A 79-year-old Russian scientist placed under house arrest after being charged with high treason has been hospitalized after suffering a heart attack. Valery Mitko was taken to a hospital in St. Petersburg on June 17. Mitko was placed under house arrest in February 2020 on suspicion of transferring classified materials to China during regular visits he made there as a teacher. (RFE/RL, 06.18.21)
• An investigation by The New York Times and the Bureau of Investigative Journalism revealed how London's courts are being used by autocrats to wage legal warfare against people who have fled their countries after falling out of favor over politics or money. Four out of the past six years, litigants from Russia and Kazakhstan have been involved in more civil cases in England than have any other foreigners. (The New York Times, 06.18.21)
• Two senior pilots for Russia’s second-largest airline S7 have been detained on suspicion of receiving bribes in exchange for employing pilots of Russia’s first medium-haul Airbus A320neo planes, Russian media reported June 23. (The Moscow Times, 06.24.21)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• At late-night talks in Brussels on June 24, the proposal by France and Germany to hold an EU-Russia summit with Putin was repelled  by Central European leaders,  Sweden and the Netherlands. In contrast, Italy and Austria backed the proposal.  In a statement early on June 25, the EU leaders said they "will explore formats and conditionalities of dialogue with Russia," without mentioning any high-level meetings or plans for a summit with Putin. They said the bloc was open to a "selective engagement with Russia in areas of EU interest," such as climate and the environment, health, the Iran nuclear deal, Syria, and Libya. (RFE/RL, 06.25.21, The New York Times, 06.25.21, Reuters, 06.25.21, Financial Times, 06.24.21)
  • "It was not possible to agree today that we should meet immediately at the top level," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said after hours of wrangling between the bloc's leaders in Brussels. The German leader said that leaders had agreed to maintain and develop a "dialogue format" with Russia. "I would have liked to see a bolder step here, but it is also good this way and we will continue to work on it," she said. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 06.25.21, The Wall Street Journal, 06.24.21)
  • Prior to the summit, Merkel said "In my opinion, we as the European Union must also seek direct contact with Russia and the Russian president.” "It is not enough for the American president to talk to the Russian president," she said, stressing that the European Union too "must also create different formats for talks." Merkel on June 24 said the EU must “define an agenda of common strategic interests” with Russia. “We have to create mechanisms that would allow us to react in a united and collective manner to [such] provocations,” she added. “Only this way will we learn to confront Russia’s hybrid attacks.” "Russia is a big challenge for us but Russia is also a continental neighbor of the European Union and we need to ensure that all hybrid attacks are stopped," Merkel told a joint news conference. (Reuters, 06.18.21, Financial Times, 06.24.21, The Moscow Times/AFP, 06.24.21)
  • Prior to the EU summit Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said he hoped to have a “demanding and ambitious” dialogue with Russia, built upon a foundation of European co-ordination and unity, and insisted the EU could not remain purely reactive when dealing with Russia.”  Speaking to reporters after the summit, Macron expressed dismay that the EU would take a tougher line toward Moscow than the U.S., even though he stressed Russia is the EU’s neighbor.  “The aberration is that we are today the power that is the harshest with Russia, but they are our neighbors,” Macron said. “We saw it a few weeks ago, President Biden met with President Putin, I said it to my friends around the table ‘he didn’t ask you for your opinion, and you, you watch him have a summit and it doesn’t shock you?’” (Financial Times, 06.24.21, RFE/RL, 06.24.21, Politico, 06.25.21)
  • The Kremlin has expressed disappointment over the failure of European Union leaders to agree on a proposal by France and Germany to hold an EU-Russia summit with Putin. "President Putin was and remains interested in establishing working relations between Moscow and Brussels," spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. (RFE/RL, 06.25.21)
• Armin Laschet, frontrunner to become Germany’s next chancellor, has warned of the dangers of a new cold war against China. Laschet also called for Russia to be brought out of the cold, saying the west must try to “establish a sensible relationship” with Moscow. “Ignoring Russia has served neither our nor the US’ interests,” he said. Laschet said he had always insisted its annexation of Crimea was an “unacceptable” breach of international law. But he also argued that Russia should not be ignored or belittled. He took issue, for example, with Barack Obama’s famous characterization of Russia as a “regional power”, saying that was one of the causes of rising tensions between Moscow and the west over the past decade. “It’s the largest country in the world, a nuclear power,” he said. (Financial Times, 06.21.21)
• Putin has marked the 80th anniversary of the Nazi invasion of the U.S.S.R. by hailing the sacrifices made by the Soviets during the war while claiming that European security has been "dramatically degraded" amid "escalating tensions." "Russia supports the idea of reviving a full-fledged partnership with Europe... The whole system of European security has dramatically degraded. Tension is being escalated, the risks of a new arms race are becoming real," Putin said. Writing an op-ed in German newspaper Die Zeit, Putin said: “Russia is one of the largest countries in Europe. And we are aware of our inseparable cultural and historical connection to Europe.” German Chancellor Angela Merkel called Putin on June 22 to "express empathy with the unmeasurable woes and suffering brought by the war that was launched by the Nazi regime," the Kremlin said.(RFE/RL, 06.22.21, Kremlin press service, 06.22.21)              
• Heads of states and governments of the European Union made the political decision at a two-day summit in Brussels to extend economic sanctions against Russia that expire at the end of July, a source in the delegation of one of European countries in the European Council said on June 25. (TASS, 06.25.21
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov emphasized on June 21 the important potential of the OSCE as a platform for an equal dialogue on problems common for the Euro-Atlantic region and for passing collective constructive decisions for their settlement. "We see and value your commitment to advancement in the interests of achieving such results," Lavrov said in the opening remarks at talks with OSCE Secretary General Helga Schmid. (TASS, 06.21.21)
• Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin and Indian Defense Secretary Ajay Kumar met in Moscow to discuss relevant aspects of military-technical cooperation between the two countries and ways to strengthen their strategic partnership. (Interfax, 06.25.21)
• Russian Security Council chief Nikolai Patrushev met with Myanmar's junta leader Min Aung Hlaing in Moscow and discussed the "fight against terrorism, issues related to regional security. Myanmar's junta chief was in Moscow to attend a security conference (The Moscow Times/AFP, 06.22.21, AFP, 06.21.21)
• Argentina and Mexico are facing a shortage of second doses of Russia’s Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine despite Moscow’s pledge to supply 10% of the world’s population, according to several media outlets. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 06.21.21)
• According to experts from the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Moscow ranks fourth in the list of world capitals in terms of export volume. In 2020, the city's industrial exports grew by 31%, the press service of the Moscow Complex of Economic Policy and Property and Land Relations reported. (TASS, 06.25.21)

Ukraine:

• The U.S. is holding $100 million in security assistance for Ukraine “in reserve” for threats such as a renewed Russian military buildup on the border, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said. “So it is there and the Russians know it’s there and the Ukrainians know it’s there, but the idea that we have withheld any security assistance from Ukraine is simply nonsense,” Sullivan said on “Fox News Sunday.” Politico reported on June 18 that National Security Council officials temporarily halted as much as $100 million in military aid to Ukraine after Russia said it would draw down troops near Ukraine before Putin and Biden met last week. (Bloomberg, 06.20.21)
  • Last week Biden threw cold water on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's assertion that Ukraine would join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization as a new member. "It depends on whether they meet the criteria," Biden answered in response to a question on the subject during the evening press conference. The U.S. president claimed that Ukraine still has to "clean up corruption" and "meet other criteria to get into the action plan. … School's out on that question," he continued. "It remains to be seen." A day after Zelenskyy tweeted NATO leaders had “confirmed” it would become a member, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg made clear no such action was imminent. (Washington Examiner, 06.14.21, Defense News, 06.16.21)
• U.S. Congressional lawmakers are ratcheting up the pressure on the White House, demanding more be done to force the extradition of a powerful Ukrainian tycoon from Austria to the United States. In a letter released by a bipartisan group of House of Representatives lawmakers on June 22, they also suggested that Austria's judiciary had been corrupted by Dmytro Firtash, one of Ukraine's wealthiest businessmen. (RFE/RL, 06.23.21)              
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has imposed sanctions against Firtash. In a decree signed on June 24, Zelenskiy also slapped sanctions on dozens of businessmen and enterprises with alleged links to Russia's defense sector. The world's largest titanium producer, VSMPO-AVISMA, was hit with sanctions as was the Russian-based company's director Sergei Chemezov and his deputy, Mikhail Shelkov. (RFE/RL, 06.24.21)
• Writing an op-ed in German newspaper Die Zeit, Russian Putin has said the 2014 popular uprising that saw former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich forced from office was the result of a “coup” orchestrated by the United States and supported by Washington’s European allies and appealed for greater cooperation on the continent. (Al Jazeera, 06.22.21)
• President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky rejected the involvement of Head of the President's Office Andriy Yermak in disrupting the so-called operation to detain members of the (Russian Private Military Company) Wagner, calling the idea of such operation "an idea of other countries." (Interfax, 06.25.21)
• The number of deaths in Ukraine in April 2021 amounted to 68,620, which is 48.5% more than in April 2020, the State Statistics Service reported on June 18. This is the highest rate of deaths since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. (Interfax, 06.18.21)
• An official report by Canadian experts says it has found no evidence that the downing of a Ukrainian passenger plane shot down after takeoff from Tehran early last year was "premeditated." Tehran rejected the charge as "baseless and unacceptable." (RFE/RL, 06.25.21)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• On 21 June, forces of the Taliban movement seized the Sherkhon-Bandar border crossing checkpoint on the border between Afghanistan and Tajikistan. Following a clash with the Taliban, 134 Afghan servicemen were forced to retreat into the territory of the neighboring state [Tajikistan]. Tajik border guards allowed the Afghan servicemen who trespassed the state border to enter the territory of Tajikistan unimpededly. In a telephone conversation on 23 June, the presidents of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan discussed the situation in Afghanistan (BBC Monitoring, 06.25.21).
  • Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev and his counterparts from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) discussed regional security issues with Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon on June 23 in Dushanbe, the Security Council’s press service said. (TASS, 06.23.21)
• The United States, the European Union, Britain, and Canada have slapped a fresh round of coordinated sanctions on Belarus in response to the regime of Alexander Lukashenko's mounting repression against the political opposition and the free media. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia—along with Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway "align themselves" with the decision by the 27-member states to strengthen the bloc's existing restrictive measures against Belarus by introducing a ban on Belarusian carriers from overflying EU airspaces and from accessing to EU airports. (RFE/RL, 06.22.21, (RFE/RL, 06.21.21)     
• Belarus’s dollar debt sank by about 5 per cent as investors reacted to reports that new EU curbs could include a “Venezuela-style” ban on the trading of Belarusian securities that could leave bondholders unable to exit their positions. A Belarusian bond maturing in 2031, sold in June last year ahead of a contested election that triggered a brutal crackdown by Lukashenko on widespread protests, fell by nearly 5 cents to 87.7 cents on the dollar. (Financial Times, 06.21.21)
• Jailed journalist Roman Protasevich and his girlfriend, Sofia Sapega, who were arrested after Belarus diverted to Minsk a passenger plane they were on, have been moved from the prisons where they were being held to house arrest. (RFE/RL, 06.25.21)
• Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei has met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow to discuss the status of Russian citizen Sofia Sapega—the girlfriend of the detained Belarusian opposition activist Roman Protasevich. Lavrov told journalists on May 18 that Makei informed him about the legal cases in Belarus against Sapega and another Russian citizen, Yegor Dudnikov. (RFE/RL, 06.18.21)
• Lawmakers in Belarus have approved the first reading of a bill amending the constitution to introduce a single voting day for all elections, a move that is likely to delay local elections and a referendum promised by authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko. Lidzia Yarmoshyna, the head of the Central Election Commission, has said that if the changes are passed, the next municipal elections, which were scheduled for late 2021 or early 2022, will be delayed until 2023. In turn, that is likely to delay a referendum Lukashenka has pledged to hold on the constitutional amendments. (RFE/RL, 06.25.21)
• Acting Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian’s party has defied opinion polls ahead of Armenia's June 20 snap elections in a landslide victory that gives it a parliamentary majority. Pashinian’s Civil Contract party won about 54 percent of the vote compared to about 21 percent for the opposition Armenia Alliance of former President Robert Kocharian. Since Armenia’s constitution requires at least three parties or alliances in the unicameral parliament, the Republican Party of former President Serzh Sarkisian also will take seats as the third-place finisher with just under 5 percent of the vote. A final pre-election forecast on June 14 by the Armenian affiliate of the Swiss-based Gallup International Association predicted Kocharian’s Armenia Alliance would win the election with 28.7 percent of the vote compared to only 25.2 for Civil Contract. (RFE/RL, 06.21.21)  
• The joint observation mission from the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly (OSCE PA), and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) have concluded that Armenia's early parliamentary elections were competitive and generally well-managed. (RFE/RL, 06.21.21)          

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has dismissed speculation that Turkey could build a military base in Azerbaijan as "rumors." Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said during a visit to Baku this week that he hasn't ruled out the possibility Ankara could build a military base in Azerbaijan under an agreement he and President Ilham Aliyev signed on June 15. (RFE/RL, 06.15.21)
• Armenian brandy producers are required to stop naming their drink "cognac" by 2032 in return for a 3 million euro ($3.5 million) payout as part of a deal with the European Union passed in Yerevan on June 10. (RFE/RL, 06.21.21)          

 

IV. Quoteworthy:

• “Two bones need soft tissue between them. Ukraine is right between Russia and the west, and the geopolitical gravity of both will sever Ukraine,” Former Putin aide Vladislav Surkov said. Surkov described the Minsk agreements—a peace deal signed by Moscow, Kyiv and pro-Russian rebels—as an act that “legitimized the first division of Ukraine”. (Financial Times, 06.18.21)