This Week’s Highlights

• During their meeting in  Reykjavik on May 19, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov “discussed areas in which both of our peoples could benefit from sustained and enhanced cooperation, including Afghanistan, strategic stability, and curbing Iran and the DPRK’s nuclear programs,” according to the U.S. State Department. Afterwards, Lavrov said the Russian side had reaffirmed “our proposal to start a dialogue by considering all factors influencing strategic stability.”  He also said that Russia was prepared to “unload the baggage” from previous tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions in the hope that both countries’ embassies could return to normal operations.
• The Biden administration is leading a campaign against Russian attempts to assert authority over Arctic shipping and reintroduce a military dimension to discussions over international activity in the area, according to AP. As Russia assumed the rotating chairmanship of the Arctic Council on Thursday, the U.S. rallied other members to oppose Moscow’s plans to set maritime rules in the Northern Sea Route, AP reports.
• U.S. secretary of state Antony Blinken announced the decision to waive the application of sanctions against Nord Stream 2 AG—the company overseeing the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project—as well as its chief executive Matthias Warnig. The waiver will only be for the next 90 days.  Russia hopes to finalize the construction and adjustment of the pipeline by the end of summer, State Duma Energy Committee Chairman Pavel Zavalny said. 
• Russian President Vladimir Putin said on May 20 during a televised virtual meeting of the National Security Council: "Everyone wants to bite us somewhere or to bite off something from us. But they … should know that we will knock their teeth out so that they cannot bite. … This is quite obvious, and the key to this is the development of our armed forces.”
• The Central Bank of Russia does not see any risks of Russia being shut out of SWIFT; but if necessary, this system's traffic within Russia can easily be switched to the Russian equivalent, the SPFS financial messaging system, CBR first deputy chairman Olga Skorobogatova said.
• Russian companies stand to be among the biggest losers from the European Union’s proposed carbon tax on imports, which the European Commission is to detail in July, with estimates of the potential costs varying from $3 billion a year, according to the Russian natural resources ministry, to a KPMG forecast of about $60 billion between 2022 and 2030.
• A motorized rifle regiment manned with 2,500 contracted servicemen will be deployed in Ingushetia to protect the Russian border with Georgia, said Mikhail Zusko, commander of the Russian ground forces’ 58th combined arms army.

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Russia has sent an expedition to survey radioactivity levels at the wreckage of the Soviet nuclear submarine Komsomolets, which sank in the Norwegian Sea three decades ago, the country's meteorological service said May 19. (AFP, 05.20.21)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Iranian President Hassan Rohani says a broad outline of a deal to end major sanctions on his country was reached during talks with world powers aimed at restoring the JCPOA. Negotiators in the Austrian capital have taken a “major step,” Rohani said on May 20, adding that "a main agreement has been made." He said that the deal would see the lifting of U.S. sanctions on sectors such as oil, shipping, insurance, and Iran's central bank. Diplomats are still discussing "minor issues" before there’s a “final agreement,” according to the Iranian president. A Russian diplomat involved in the talks, Mikhail Ulyanov, said on Twitter on May 19 that a deal was "within reach.” (RFE/RL, 05.21.21)

Great Power Rivalry/New Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin said on May 20 during a televised virtual meeting of the National Security Council: "Everyone wants to bite us somewhere or to bite off something from us. But they … should know that we will knock their teeth out so that they cannot bite. … This is quite obvious, and the key to this is the development of our armed forces.” (RFE/RL, 05.21.21)
• Russia on May 14 formally designated the United States and the Czech Republic as "unfriendly states" amid the biggest crisis in ties between Moscow and Washington in years. The Russian government released a decree signed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin that was accompanied by a list of "unfriendly states" that "have carried out unfriendly actions" against Russia, Russian nationals or Russian entities. Czech President Milos Zeman called Russia silly in response to his country’s inclusion in the list. (AFP, 05.14.21, RFE/RL, 05.15.21)
• Mysterious episodes that caused brain injuries in spies, diplomats, soldiers and other U.S. personnel overseas starting five years ago now number more than 130 people, far more than previously known, according to current and former officials. While many officials expressed skepticism that Russia or another power would conduct an attack in the United States, agencies are investigating. (The New York Times, 05.14.21)
• Former U.S. Army Green Beret Peter Debbing who pleaded guilty last year to providing classified information to Russian military intelligence agents over a lengthy period of time, has been sentenced to more than 15 years in prison. (RFE/RL, 05.15.21)
• German prosecutors on Tuesday arrested a man accused of procuring high-tech components on behalf of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) for use in Russia's missile development programme, Der Spiegel reported. (Reuters, 05.21.21)
• Polish authorities said they have arrested a man suspected of spying for Russia, the Polish internal security agency said in a statement on May 17. The 43-year-old is accused of “providing the Russian special services with information and materials in the military field and about Polish entities and citizens.” (The Moscow Times, 05.17.21)
• Russia's Black Sea Fleet has started tracking Britain's HMS Trent patrol ship, which has entered the Black Sea, the Russian National Defense Control Center (NDCC) said on May 16. (Interfax, 05.17.21)
• A Russian Su-27 fighter intercepted a B-52H strategic bomber of the US Air Force over the Baltic Sea on Wednesday, the Russian Defence Ministry said. (India Post, 05.21.21)
• Serbia and Russia launched joint military exercises near Serbia’s capital Thursday as U.S.-led forces held massive drills in neighboring Balkan states. The Serbian and Russian defense ministries said the joint training of some 200 special troops and drills will last through May 25. Meanwhile Defender Europe 2021 is being held across and the U.S. Army has said that the joint exercises which include approximately 28,000 multinational troops. (AP, 05.20.21)
• Some 42 percent of Russian citizens believe Russia is a great global power, according to a poll conducted by VTsIOM. In all, 28 percent of the respondents expect the country to reach this level in 15 to 20 years, while 23 percent believe that this will not ultimately happen, the sociologists said. (Interfax, 05.20.21)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on May 19 hailed close ties between their countries as they launched via videoconference work on Russian-built nuclear power plants in China. The heads of state initiated work on pouring concrete into new units of the Tianwan and Xudabao nuclear power plants. Built jointly with Russia, the Tianwan plant has been operating since 2007, while the Xudabao station is still under construction. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 05.20.21)
• The Russian ambassador to the U.K. warned May 20 that Group of Seven (G-7) countries are playing a “dangerous game” with their criticism of Moscow, a move which he says could push Russia closer to China. (The Hill, 05.21.21)
• In January-April 2021, China reduced its purchases of Russian oil by 2.14 percent year-on-year to 27.66 million tons, the General Administration of Customs of China announced on May 20. (TASS, 05.20.21)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Arms control:

• Russia's State Duma has voted to withdraw the country from an international treaty that had allowed surveillance flights over military facilities. The move follows the departure from the accord by the United States late last year. The May 19 vote to exit from the Open Skies Treaty must still be endorsed by the upper house of parliament and signed by Putin to take effect. (RFE/RL, 05.19.21)

Counter-terrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• A Russian company that recently struck a deal with the Syrian government for offshore oil and gas exploration is part of a network of companies that make up the shadowy Russian mercenary group known as Wagner. The deal with the previously unknown Russian company Kapital, which was ratified by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in March, will theoretically see the Russian company explore for oil and gas in a 2,250-square-kilometer area off the coast of southern Syria. (Foreign Policy, 05.17.21)
• A U.S. armored convoy traveling without a prior notice along an uncoordinated route on Highway M-4 in Syria's Al-Hasakah province was stopped and turned around by a Russian military police patrol, deputy head of the Russian Center for Reconciliation of Opposing Sides in Syria Alexander Karpov said. (Interfax, 05.14.21)
• The de facto president of Georgia's breakaway region of Abkhazia, Aslan Bzhania, completed a three-day visit to Syria, his office said on May 19. Assad reportedly told Bzhania during the visit that Syria supports the people of Abkhazia and their right to sovereignty. (Interfax, 05.17.21, RFE/RL, 05.21.21)

Cyber security:

• DarkSide, the suspected Russian-based group that the FBI has said was responsible for the recent ransomware attack on the Colonial Pipeline last week, has told its affiliates it is shuttering its services, said FireEye, a cyber security group appointed to investigate the incident. U.S. officials subsequently denied the U.S. government’s involvement in the disruption of DarkSide, while experts said the group's disappearance could be a ploy. (Financial Times, 05.15.21, Washington Post, 05.19.21))
• Sergei Naryshkin, head of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, has denied that his agency was behind the SolarWinds cyberattack, which was blamed on Moscow by both U.S. and British intelligence officials and resulted in U.S. sanctions against Russia.  (RFE/RL, 05.18.21)

Energy exports from CIS:

• The US will waive sanctions on the company in charge of the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline, a senior Biden administration official said. “I have determined that it is in the national interest of the United States to waive the application of sanctions,” US secretary of state Antony Blinken said, referring to Nord Stream 2 AG, the company overseeing the project, as well as its chief executive Matthias Warnig. The US state department sent its regular 90-day report to Congress listing the entities involved in the pipeline that will be sanctioned. The list included the Russian ships laying the pipeline, but spared the company overseeing construction. The waiver will only be for the next 90 days. (Financial Times, 05.20.21)
  • Heiko Maas, the German foreign minister, saluted a “constructive step” that showed the US was “taking into account the really excellent relations that we’ve built up with the Biden administration”. Angela Merkel, German chancellor, said: “President [Joe] Biden has now moved toward us a bit on the Nord Stream 2 conflict, where we have different views but where we will now talk further about what are the necessary commonalities in relation to Russia.” (Financial Times, 05.20.21)
  • The waiver showed the US “taking a step towards us”, Maas said. “It’s an expression of the fact that Germany is an important partner for the US, one that it can count on in the future.” (Financial Times, 05.20.21)
  • U.S. lawmakers have urged President Joe Biden to reconsider his decision to waive some sanctions related to the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Russia and Germany, saying the move was against "both U.S. national and transatlantic security interests." “We firmly believe it is in the U.S. national interest to defend Ukraine’s sovereignty [and] to protect Europe’s eastern flank from Russian aggression,” the co-chairs of the Congressional Ukraine Caucus said. (RFE/RL, 05.21.21)
  • Russia has welcomed media reports that the United States is set to wave sanctions on the company in charge of the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, with the Kremlin saying that such a move would be a positive signal "if true." Citing unnamed sources, U.S. news website Axios and the Reuters agency reported on May 19 that Washington was set to wave sanctions on Nord Stream 2 AG, the company overseeing construction of the pipeline. (RFE/RL, 05.19.21)
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy expressed concern over reports that Washington plans to lift sanctions against companies involved in completing the North Stream 2 energy pipeline for Russian natural gas in Germany, saying there is a risk that this could hand the Kremlin "a serious geopolitical victory" and lead to "a new redistribution of power and influence" in the region. (RFE/RL, 05.21.21)
• Russia hopes to finalize the construction and adjustment of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline by the end of summer, State Duma Energy Committee Chairman Pavel Zavalny said. (Interfax, 05.17.21)
• In his first big address on foreign and defense policy since being selected last month as the center-right’s candidate for chancellor in September’s Bundestag election, Armin Laschet suggested he would be aligned with the Merkel era on most policy issues, endorsing her approach to relations with Russia and the United States, and voicing support for Nord Stream 2. (Financial Times, 05.20.21)
• Brent crude oil has jumped back above $70 a barrel, regaining a level it has only briefly traded at since the beginning of the pandemic and stoking wider inflation fears as raw material prices soar. (Financial Times, 05.18.21)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• Tech billionaire Elon Musk on May 21 promised that production of his Tesla electric cars would come to Russia sometime in the future. “I think we’re close to establishing a Tesla presence in Russia [and] more broadly in Kazakhstan and neighboring regions,” Musk told at a Russian government-run innovation forum via videolink. (The Moscow Times, 05.21.21)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• During his meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Reykjavik on May 19 U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken  “raised our deep concerns regarding Russia’s continued military deployments in and near Ukraine, its actions against VOA and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, and the health of Aleksey Navalny and the repression of opposition organizations, among other issues,” according to the U.S. readout of the meeting. Blinken and Lavrov discussed regional issues, including finding a long-term political solution to the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. They also discussed areas in which both of our peoples could benefit from sustained and enhanced cooperation, including Afghanistan, strategic stability, and curbing Iran and the DPRK’s nuclear programs, according to the U.S. readout. (State.gov, 05.19.21)
  • After meeting Lavrov, Blinken said he hoped that Moscow and Washington could build “stable, predictable” ties to make the world “a safer more secure place.” (Financial Times, 05.19.21)
  • Lavrov said after meeting Blinken: “We will be preparing proposals for our presidents on these issues and on ways to promote our dialogue on strategic stability. It is also the duty of Russia and the United States as the major nuclear powers. We have reaffirmed our proposal to start a dialogue by considering all factors influencing strategic stability: nuclear and non-nuclear, offensive and defensive.”  Lavrov also said that Russia was prepared to “unload the baggage” from previous tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions under Biden’s predecessors in the hope that both countries’ embassies could return to normal operations. (Financial Times, 05.19.21, Russian Foreign Ministry, 05.20.21)
  • As Lavrov and Blinken met in Iceland, Vladimir Putin told the Russian press that he wanted to draw a line under Biden’s “killer” comments and focus on improving relations with the US. (bne IntelliNews, 05.21.21)
• Russia’s security chief is set to meet his U.S. counterpart in Europe in the coming weeks to prepare for an anticipated summit between Putin and Biden, Kommersant reported May 19.  The Putin-Biden summit will be a key item on the agenda at the talks between Russian Security Council chief Nikolai Patrushev and U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan. (The Moscow Times, 05.20.21, Financial Times, 05.19.21)
• The Biden administration is leading a campaign against Russian attempts to assert authority over Arctic shipping and reintroduce a military dimension to discussions over international activity in the area. As Russia assumed the rotating chairmanship of the Arctic Council on Thursday, the U.S. rallied other members to oppose Moscow’s plans to set maritime rules in the Northern Sea Route, which runs from Norway to Alaska, and its desire to resume high-level military talks within the eight-nation bloc. Those talks were suspended in 2014 over Russia’s actions in Ukraine. (AP, 05.20.21)
• Amy Storrow, the United States’ consul general in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg, has left her post as Washington cuts services at its remaining consulates and shrinks operations at its Moscow embassy. (The Moscow Times, 05.17.21)
• The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) does not see any risks of Russia being shut out of SWIFT. If necessary, this system's traffic within Russia can easily be switched to the Russian equivalent—the SPFS financial messaging system, CBR first deputy chairman Olga Skorobogatova said May 18. (Interfax, 05.19.21)
• Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty is in a standoff with Russia over a law requiring that it label itself a “foreign agent”—something officials at the outlet said would drive away its audience and hinder its ability to report the news. Russian officials have begun legal action and frozen the organization’s bank accounts until it pays roughly $67,000 of $2.4 million in estimated total fines for failure to comply with the law, Radio Free Europe officials said. (The New York Times, 05.20.21)
• A Moscow court upheld a $43,200 fine imposed on Twitter over its refusal to remove posts related to unsanctioned rallies at which demonstrators expressed their support for Navalny. Meanwhile, Russian internet watchdog Roskomnadzor decided against blocking Twitter after the U.S. company deleted over 90 percent of the material the state organ had objected to. (RFE/RL, 05.18.21, bne IntelliNews, 05.21.21)
• Google and Facebook face losing their Russian ad revenues under a new draft law. In early May, Russian legislators came up with a draft law stipulating that foreign tech giants running websites with a daily audience of upwards of 500,000 should register local subsidiaries. If the proposed draft becomes law, failure to comply would cost foreign tech companies their Russian ad revenues. In 2020 alone, Google's Russian revenue is estimated to be 60 billion rubles ($810 million), while that of Facebook is estimated at just over 5 billion rubles ($203 million). (bne IntelliNews, 05.20.21)
• The Russian arm of Google has appealed a court ruling ordering its YouTube unit to unblock the accounts of the Tsargrad TV channel in Russia and its former chief editor, pro-Kremlin analyst Alexander Dugin. (RFE/RL, 05.20.21)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia confirmed 9,232 COVID-19 cases and 396 deaths on May 20 and 8,937 new coronavirus cases and 389 deaths on May 21. (The Moscow Times, 05.21.21, TASS, 05.20.21) Here’s a link to RFE/RL’s interactive map of the virus’ spread around the world, including in Russia and the rest of post-Soviet Eurasia. For a comparison of the number and rate of change in new cases in the U.S. and Russia, visit this Russia Matters resource.
• The share of Moscow residents who have been vaccinated against coronavirus is lower than that of any other European city, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin has said. Only 1.3 million Muscovites out of 12 million (10.83 percent) have been vaccinated. (The Moscow Times, 05.21.21)
• Russia could vaccinate up to 60 percent of its population against coronavirus by the autumn, Anna Popova, director of the Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Welfare, said. (The Moscow Times, 05.20.21)
• Forty-two percent of Russians refuse to get vaccinated against the coronavirus under any circumstances, the SuperJob.ru job portal said in a survey published May 16.  (The Moscow Times, 05.17.21)
• The Russian population is currently expecting inflation to soar to 14.5 percent, despite the fact it is currently 5.5 percent and looks like it is starting to fall. Russia's annual consumer price inflation in April 2021 slowed down to 5.5 percent from 5.8 percent year on year in March, according to the latest data from the Rosstat statistics agency, and in line with expectations. (bne IntelliNews, 05.18.21)
• Parts of Russia’s Arctic are currently experiencing warmer temperatures than the Mediterranean Sea as the region faces a ferocious heatwave. Temperatures in the Arctic Circle village of Nizhnaya Pesha hit 30 degrees Celsius May 19, a measurement Scottish meteorologist Scott Duncan called “truly exceptional for any time of the year but mind-boggling for May.” (The Moscow Times, 05.20.21)
• A recent oil spill in northern Russia’s Komi may be 4-5 times larger than originally estimated, authorities said as environmentalists warned that the pollution could reach the Arctic Ocean. While Lukoil officials initially said 20 tons of oil product had spilled, the real scale is closer to 90-100 tons—nine of which entered the Kolva River, officials in the town of Usinsk 1,500 kilometers northeast of Moscow said May 15. (The Moscow Times, 05.18.21)
• Russia is among the “worst” countries for living and working abroad, according to the 2021 survey published by the expat community organization InterNations. Russia ranked 56th out of 59 countries on the list, outperforming only South Africa, Italy and Kuwait across a range of categories that evaluated expats’ general satisfaction with life in their new home. (The Moscow Times, 05.20.21)
• According to the Levada Center pollster, 40 percent of Muscovites would vote for Putin and 15 percent would vote for United Russia candidates if Duma elections were held this Sunday. (The Moscow Times, 05.18.21)
• Russia's lower house of parliament on May 18 approved draft legislation that would ban members of "extremist" organizations from being elected as lawmakers. The changes to Russia’s election law would shut out jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny's supporters from critical lower-house polls in September. (The Moscow Times, 05.17.21)
• A court in Moscow has sentenced activist Yevgeny Yesenov to four years in prison for allegedly attacking a police officer during unsanctioned rallies supporting Navalny in January. (RFE/RL, 05.21.21)
• The head of Russia's prison service says Navalny has "recovered, more or less" following his 24-day hunger strike last month. (RFE/RL, 05.20.21) 
• Lyudmila Shut, a 73-year-old Jehovah’s Witness in Russia's Far Eastern Primorye region, has been handed a four-year suspended sentence on extremism charges amid an ongoing crackdown on the religious group that has been banned in the country since 2017. (RFE/RL, 05.21.21)
• Dozens of new pits have been discovered in a notorious Stalin-era execution site outside Moscow where more than 10,000 political dissidents are believed to be buried, Kommersant reported May 20. (The Moscow Times, 05.21.21)
• Jailed Russian gulag historian Yuri Dmitriyev, who is serving 13 years in prison, has won the Sakharov Freedom Award on the 100th anniversary of the birth of Nobel laureate and human rights activist Andrei Sakharov. (The Moscow Times, 05.21.21)

Defense and aerospace:

• The Barnaul formation of the Strategic Missile Forces deployed in the Altai region will complete rearmament with Yars mobile missile launchers by the end of 2021, the Russian Defense Ministry said. (TASS, 05.21.21)
• Russia has launched the serial production of combat robots capable of fighting on their own, Russian Defense Minister Army General Sergei Shoigu said at a lecture of the New Knowledge educational marathon on Friday. (TASS, 05.21.21)
• Russia recently completed development and testing of a new vehicle-mounted Magister-SV passive (non-emitting) visual/radar detecting sensor system for short-range antiaircraft systems. Magister uses a database of visual images for various known or possible targets as well as a radar detector with a similar database. (StrategyPage, 05.21.21)
• The state trials of the Tsirkon hypersonic missile from the Project 22350 frigate Admiral Gorshkov will start in June, two sources in Russia’s defense industry told TASS. (NavalNews, 05.21.21)
• A motorized rifle regiment manned with 2.5 thousand contracted servicemen will be deployed in Ingushetia to protect the Russian border with Georgia, Commander of the 58th combined arms army Mikhail Zusko said. (TASS, 05.20.21)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• Russian officials say 10 people have died of suspected poisoning during sewage treatment works in the southwestern region of Rostov. (RFE/RL, 05.21.21)
• A military court in Moscow has upheld a lower court's decision to reject a lawsuit filed by Navalny against the Main Military Investigative Directorate (GVSU) over its refusal to launch a probe into his poisoning in Siberia with a chemical nerve agent in August. (RFE/RL, 05.18.21)
• The U.K.’s Court of Appeal has overturned a lower ruling and decided that the former wife of one of Russia’s richest men can bring her $6 billion divorce claim in England. The three judges said that Natalia Potanina could bring a financial claim in London against Vladimir Potanin, who is reputed to have a $20 billion fortune and a controlling stake in Norilsk.  (Financial Times, 05.13.21)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russian companies stand to be among the biggest losers from the EU’s proposed carbon tax on imports, prompting accusations of protectionism from Moscow. Estimates of the potential costs vary from $3 billion a year, according to the Russian natural resources ministry, to a KPMG forecast of about $60 billion between 2022 and 2030. The European Commission is due to detail its proposals in July.  (Financial Times, 05.17.21)
• Russia raised 1.5 billion euros ($1.83 billion) in two Eurobond issues on Thursday, enjoying bids worth over 2.1 billion euros, as markets welcomed talks between Moscow and Washington’s top diplomats and the easing of some U.S. sanctions. (Reuters, 05.21.21)
• Russia is struggling to meet demand for its Sputnik V vaccine, compounding a supply crunch for the shots in the developing world as COVID-19 infections surge in many poorer countries. More than 60 countries have approved Sputnik V and Moscow has struck deals to sell more than 630 million doses, according to analytics company Airfinity, which tracks global vaccine distribution. (The Wall Street Journal, 05.14.21)
• Russia’s mission in the U.N. has called for talks among the four international mediators known as the Middle East Quartet for urgent talks after Israel and Palestinian militants announced a truce May 20. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 05.21.21)
• The EU has called on Russia to repeal its controversial "foreign agent" law, which has been used to target a growing number of Russian-language media outlets, including Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. (RFE/RL, 05.18.21)
• Russia’s Rosoboronexport state arms seller has signed contracts worth $4 billion in 2021, Rosoboronexport CEO Alexander Mikheyev said. (TASS, 05.21.21)
• Russia has delivered its latest weapons batch to the mineral-rich and violence-racked Central African Republic, Moscow’s ambassador in Bangui said May 17. The shipment of 5,000 pieces of small arms is the third delivery in as many years. Moscow donated hundreds of weapons in 2019 and airlifted 10 BRDM-2 armored personnel vehicles as a gift last year. (The Moscow Times, 05.18.21)
• Russia was visited by 1.83 million foreigners, including 13,350 tourists, in the first quarter of 2021. The overall foreign arrivals dipped 66 percent year-on-year. Most frequently, Russia was visited in 2021 by citizens of Ukraine (786,400 visitors). The other countries in the top five were Kazakhstan (239,840), Abkhazia (138,900), Kyrgyzstan (128,300) and Armenia (86,900). (Interfax, 05.17.21)
• Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias is to pay an official visit to Sochi, Anapa, and Gelendzhik. Greece and Russia have agreed to open a Greek consulate in Sochi. (Greek Times, 05.21.21)
• North Macedonia has declared a Russian diplomat persona non grata and communicated the decision to Moscow earlier this week. (RFE/RL, 05.18.21)
• The EU has agreed to open its borders to vaccinated Americans and others, after more than a year in which travel into the bloc has been severely restricted. While the coronavirus vaccines available in the U.S. would be greenlighted, vaccines manufactured in Russia and China would not. The EU guidance is not binding. (The Washington Post, 05.20.21)
• Soccer fans attending this summer’s UEFA Euro 2020 championship will be able to enter Russia without a visa, according to amendments signed by Mishustin. (The Moscow Times, 05.21.21)

Ukraine:

• Ukraine’s GDP contracted by 2 percent in Q1 2021, compared to the first quarter of 2020. By contrast, the economy contracted by 0.8 percent in the last quarter of 2020. The disappointing first quarter results casts doubt on 2021 growth predictions, which are in the 4-5 percent range. (Ukraine Business News, 05.17.21)
• Ukraine has signed off on €1.3 billion worth of investment deals with France, the Ukrainian government said May 13. The deal was signed during an official visit by French Economic and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire to Kyiv. (bne IntelliNews, 05.14.21)
• Around 53 percent of Ukrainians say the fight against the pandemic is a failure. About 48 percent of women and 59 percent of men agree with this statement, according to an April 13-16 poll of Ukrainians by Liberty Report LLC. (PRNewswire, 05.17.21)
• Twenty-three percent of Ukrainian adults would like to change their country of residence, and 50 percent of those aged 14–17 in the eastern regions of Ukraine would like to immigrate to another country, according to the April 13-16 poll of Ukrainians by Liberty Report LLC. The most popular countries for immigration to among respondents are the U.S., Canada, EU countries in general, and Germany, Poland, Spain, Italy and the Czech Republic in particular. (PRNewswire, 05.17.21)
• Fifty-seven percent of the Ukrainian adult population fears that Putin will take over other territories of their country, according to the April 13-16 poll by Liberty Report LLC. (PRNewswire, 05.17.21)
• Speaking at a wide ranging press conference on May 20 to mark his second year in office, Zelensky has called Moscow’s recent move to distribute Russian passports to residents in the eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk "a big problem" and the first step toward the annexation of the area. Zelensky also voiced fear that the U.S. could strike a deal with Russia behind his country’s back. (AP, 05.20.21, RFE/RL, 05.21.21)
• Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov has said that in the near future, Zelensky may sign a decree on the creation of cyber troops in the country. (Interfax, 05.15.21)
• The artillery unit of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the basis of the 26th Artillery Brigade began the active phase of the international exercise in Exercise Dynamic Front 21 in Torun, Poland. (Defense Blog, 05.18.21)
• Military personnel from the U.K., the U.S., Denmark, Sweden and Canada will take part in the Cossack Mace drills in Ukraine this summer. (Ukrinform, 05.17.21)
• Lawyers for Rudy Giuliani are pushing back against a Manhattan U.S. Attorney's office investigation that led to a federal raid of his home and office last month, asking a federal judge to compel prosecutors to disclose their underlying evidence and reasoning for the search warrants. The U.S. Attorney's office in Manhattan and the FBI are examining whether Giuliani violated foreign lobbying laws, focusing in particular on his efforts to remove the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine while he was Trump's lawyer. (The Wall Street Journal, 05.18.21)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Russia says it has proposed setting up a joint commission to demarcate the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, amid renewed Yerevan-Baku tensions over the past week over an alleged Azerbaijani military incursion. Armenia has accused Azerbaijani troops of crossing several kilometers into its Syunik and Gegharkunik provinces and trying to stake a claim to territory. Azerbaijan insists that its troops simply took up positions on the Azerbaijani side of the frontier that were not accessible in winter months.  (RFE/RL, 05.20.21)
• White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan has phoned the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan to express concern over recent tensions between the two countries, the White House has said. Sullivan spoke with caretaker Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev after Armenia accused Azerbaijan of sending troops across the border and trying to stake claim to territory. (RFE/RL, 05.18.21)
• The European Court of Human Rights has found Azerbaijani authorities guilty of torturing blogger Alexander Lapshin and trying to kill him in a Baku prison. The court said in the unanimous ruling, published May 20, that Baku must pay compensation of 30,000 euros to Lapshin, who was detained in Belarus in 2016 and extradited to Azerbaijan, where he was charged with illegally visiting Nagorno-Karabakh. (RFE/RL, 05.21.21)
• Alexander Lukashenko will meet with Putin later this month as the Belarusian strongman faces growing isolation from the West over his crackdown on peaceful protesters. The visit is scheduled for the end of May, Kommersant reported, and will be Lukashenko’s third trip to Russia this year. The two leaders will discuss their closer integration, among other issues. (RFE/RL, 05.16.21)
• Lukashenko has signed into law legislation that allows police and security forces to shoot at demonstrators. (RFE/RL, 05.18.21)
• Putin has announced he will meet with his Kyrgyz counterpart, Sadyr Japarov, in Sochi on May 24. (RFE/RL, 05.18.21)
• Kyrgyzstan's parliament has backed a plan to temporarily seize the country's largest gold mine, Kumtor, after its Canadian operator, Centerra Gold, announced it was taking the government to an international court. (RFE/RL, 05.18.21)

 

IV. Quoteworthy

• No significant developments.