This Week’s Highlights

• U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has proposed a United Nations-led peace conference in Turkey with the participation of China, Russia, Pakistan, Iran and India “to discuss a unified approach to supporting peace in Afghanistan.” Russia expects Turkey to provide details regarding that meeting, but also plans to hold its own conference in Moscow on March 18 to discuss Afghanistan peace talks. It is unclear if the United States will attend the talks in the Russian capital.
• U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz is holding up the confirmation of William Burns as the next CIA chief in order to pressure U.S. President Joe Biden to stop Nord Stream 2, even though Blinken has assured members of Congress that the Biden administration opposes the construction of the pipeline. Meanwhile, Denmark’s Maritime Authority expects Nord Stream 2 to be completed by the end of September 2021.
• U.S. lawmakers and security experts are voicing concerns that foreign governments are staging cyberattacks using servers in the U.S., in an apparent effort to avoid detection by the National Security Agency. A report in The New York Times said the U.S. was preparing to respond to some of these attacks with a series of covert counter cyberstrikes on Russian networks. "This is alarming information," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said of the report. Meanwhile, Russia's media watchdog has imposed restrictions on Twitter by slowing down its speed across the country for its "failure" to remove banned content.
• Russia and China unveiled plans March 9 for a joint lunar space station. Russian space agency Roscosmos said in a statement that it had signed an agreement with China's National Space Administration to develop a "complex of experimental research facilities created on the surface and/or in the orbit of the Moon." Meanwhile, a joint Chicago Council on Global Affairs-Levada Analytical Center survey has found that that nearly six in ten Russians (57 percent) believe that in 10 years, Russia and China will grow closer.
•  A document drawn up by Berlin ahead of EU leaders’ talks on Russia this month notes that Russia has an “indispensable,” if “often difficult,” role in various global policy fields, meaning the EU has a “vital interest” in stable and predictable relations. Scope exists for possible engagement with Moscow on conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa, global environmental and health problems and economic themes such as digitalization, hydrogen power and the Eurasian Economic Union alliance, the document states.
• Support for Russia's pro-Kremlin ruling party has dropped to an eight-year low of 27 percent ahead of legislative elections where it seeks to retain a supermajority in September, according to a poll by the Levada Center polling agency. The only time United Russia’s support dipped below that figure was in June 2013, months before patriotic fervor swept the country with the annexation of Crimea from Ukraine.

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security:

• Russia has withdrawn from the agreement that regulated shipments of uranium hexafluoride from the United States as part of the Russia-U.S. HEU-LEU project for the disposition of weapon-grade uranium, which ended in 2013. The Russian government has instructed Rosatom to notify, with the support of the Russian Foreign Ministry, the U.S. about the decision. (Interfax, 03.05.21) 
• A project to globalize and implement the International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism was discussed in the Tajik capital Dushanbe with the participation of members of parliament and representatives of the ministries of foreign affairs and justice of Tajikistan. (BBC, 03.04.21)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Russia thinks Iran and the U.S. may develop synchronized steps to recover the JCPOA, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said March 9 during a joint press conference with UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan. (TASS, 03.09.21)
• In a further move away from the JCPOA, Iran has started enriching uranium with a third cascade, or cluster, of advanced IR-2m centrifuges at its underground plant at Natanz, Reuters reported March 8, citing a report by the U.N. nuclear watchdog. (RFE/RL, 03.08.21)
• The value of Iran’s exports to Russia has increased 105 percent in 2020, Iranian Ambassador to Moscow Kazem Jalali announced. The ambassador put the worth of Iran’s export to Russia at $390 million in 2019, and at $800 million in 2020. (Teheran Times, 03.12.21)

Great Power rivalry/New Cold War/saber rattling:

• Russian intelligence agencies have mounted a campaign to undermine confidence in Pfizer's and other Western vaccines, using online publications that in recent months have questioned the vaccines' development and safety, U.S. officials said. An official with the State Department's Global Engagement Center, which monitors foreign disinformation efforts, identified four publications that he said have served as fronts for Russian intelligence. (Wall Street Journal, 03.07.21)
  • Moscow said March 9 that claims it was spearheading a disinformation campaign against U.S.-made coronavirus vaccines to boost its own homegrown vaccine were "absurd and groundless." (AFP, 03.09.21)
• Russia will react and take measures to maintain its national security, if the United States deploys intermediate and shorter-range missiles to the Asia-Pacific Region, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told a news briefing March 12 following Japanese mass media reports Tokyo and Washington were mulling plans for discussing the outlook for bringing to Japan U.S. ground-based intermediate range missiles. (TASS, 03.12.21)

NATO-Russia relations:

• No significant developments.

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

• No significant developments.

Counter-terrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• Syria's 10-year-long civil war has killed or wounded almost 12,000 children and left millions out of school in what could have repercussions for years to come in the country, the U.N. children's agency said March 10. (The Washington Post, 03.11.21)
• Russian forces have started to build a permanent military base in the eastern suburban area of Homs. The new base, which will be located on a hill, 600 meters above sea level, will comprise a 780-meter airstrip. The 370 dunam (91.5 acre) base will also have a special camp to the north of Tadmor. It will be located near the warehouses used by Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad's Air Force. (Middle East Monitor, 03.05.21)
• An unusual attack on oil facilities in Turkish-occupied northern Syria occurred on March 5. Locals reported large explosions near Al-Bab and Jarablus. The use of ballistic missiles points to a sophisticated state-backed operation against the oil facilities. Many alleged Russia and the Syrian regime were behind the attack which appears aimed at denying Turkish-backed Syrian groups from trading oil. (Jerusalem Post, 03.06.21)
• A military police battalion of about 200 servicemen has returned to Chechnya after accomplishing special missions in Syria, the press office of Russia’s Southern Military District reported March 9. (TASS, 03.02.21)
• Turkey, Russia and Qatar are making a joint attempt to promote a political solution to Syria’s 10-year conflict, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said. “Our goal is to discuss how we can contribute to efforts towards a lasting political solution in Syria,” Cavusoglu said March 11 after talks in Doha with Russian and Qatari foreign ministers. (al Jazeera, 03.12.21)

Cyber security:

• U.S. lawmakers and security experts are voicing concern that foreign governments are staging cyberattacks using servers in the U.S., in an apparent effort to avoid detection by the National Security Agency. Suspected Russian hackers used U.S.-based cloud services to support key stages of their attack that leveraged a hack at SolarWinds, the network software provider through which they penetrated U.S. government and corporate networks. In both cases, the hacks were disclosed by private-sector researchers, not the U.S. government. (Wall Street Journal, 03.10.21)
• Revelations that the U.S. has been the target of two significant hacking campaigns by Russia and China just weeks apart have ignited a debate about how states should respond to cyber aggression that falls short of formal conflict. While the U.S. administration is still assessing the fallout from the Microsoft campaign—and has not yet attributed it to China—Biden has raised expectations that he is considering reprisals against Moscow by repeatedly denouncing the SolarWinds hack. According to the New York Times, the first move is expected in the next three weeks, and will involve “clandestine actions across Russian networks,” although this has not been confirmed by the administration. (Financial Times, 03.12.21)
• The Kremlin has voiced "alarm" at a report in The New York Times that said the United States was preparing a series of covert counter cyberstrikes on Russian networks. "This is alarming information," said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. "This would be pure international cybercrime." (RFE/RL, 03.09.21)
• Russia's media watchdog, Roskomnadzor, has imposed restrictions on Twitter by slowing down its speed across the country for its "failure" to remove banned content. Roskomnadzor threatened to fully block the U.S. social network if it did not act. According to Roskomnadzor, as of March 10, Twitter had 3,168 posts with banned content on its site, including more than 2,500 posts encouraging suicide among minors. The Roskomnadzor statement also referred to content on illegal drugs and pornography. (RFE/RL, 03.10.21)
  • Russia blamed “equipment failure” at the state internet provider for mass government website outages after authorities said they will slow down Twitter for Russian users March 10. (The Moscow Times, 03.10.21)
• Over 6,300 surveillance cameras in Russia are not secure, making them vulnerable to cybercriminals, experts told Kommersant. (The Moscow Times, 03.12.21)

Elections interference:

• No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

• Denmark’s Maritime Authority expects Nord Stream 2 to be completed by the end of September 2021, several months later than forecast. Reuters reports that a Russian pipe-laying vessel, Akademik Cherskiy, left Wismar, a German Baltic port, March 7 to join another Russian vessel, the Fortuna, in laying 120 kilometers of pipe through Danish waters. (Ukraine Business News, 03.08.21)
• U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz says he is holding up the confirmation of the next CIA chief in order to pressure U.S. President Joe Biden to stop Russia's Nord Stream 2 pipeline. "I'll release my hold when the Biden admin meets its legal obligation to report and sanction the ships and companies building [Russian President Vladimir] Putin's pipeline," Cruz said in a tweet on March 6. (RFE/RL, 03.07.21)
• U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has assured members of Congress that the Biden administration opposes the construction of Nord Stream 2 and said the administration continues to review further sanctions. (RFE/RL, 03.10.21)
• The feasibility study for the construction of a gas pipeline from Russia to China through Mongolia, which was expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2021, will take another six months, Mongolian news agency Montsame reported. (Interfax, 03.12.21)
• Russia exported 20.973 billion cubic meters of gas in January 2021, up 9.5 percent from 19.149 billion cubic meters in January 2019, according to data from the Federal Customs Service and Gazprom. (Interfax, 03.11.21)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Blinken has proposed a United Nations-led peace conference in Turkey aimed at forming an inclusive Afghan government with the Taliban. In a letter to Afghan President Ashraf Ghani requesting his “urgent leadership,” Blinken signaled that the Biden administration had lost faith in faltering negotiations between Ghani’s government and the Taliban. The letter calls for bringing the two sides together for a U.N.-facilitated conference with foreign ministers and envoys from Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran, India and the United States “to discuss a unified approach to supporting peace in Afghanistan.” (New York Times, 03.07.21, AP, 03.07.21)
• Russia plans to hold its own conference in Moscow on March 18 to discuss Afghanistan peace talks. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a March 9 statement that the U.S., China and Pakistan are invited participate. An Afghan government delegation, Taliban representatives and Qatar, which has hosted Afghan peace talks, are invited as well. (RFE/RL, 03.10.21)
  • Russia expects Turkey to provide details regarding an upcoming meeting on Afghanistan, Russian Special Presidential Representative for Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov said. (Interfax, 03.12.21)
  • Russia and the United States will work together to tackle climate change-related issues in a rare moment of cooperation between the two powers with increasingly frayed ties, Putin’s representative on climate issues said March 9. Ruslan Edelgeriyev identified protection of the rapidly warming Arctic, forest sector projects and nuclear energy as key priorities in Russian-U.S. climate collaboration. (The Moscow Times, 03.09.21)
• Sluggish demand for Sputnik V means Moscow’s clinics are well-stocked. But both the British and U.S. embassies in Moscow are instead relying on airlifts of domestically approved vaccines—which must be administered on embassy territory as their use is not legal in Russia. (Financial Times, 03.09.21)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia registered 9,270 new COVID-19 cases over the past 24 hours, bringing the total number of infections to 4,360,823, the country's COVID-19 response center said March 11. Russia on March 12 confirmed 9,794 new coronavirus cases and 486 deaths. (The Moscow Times, 03.12.21) Here’s a link to RFE/RL’s interactive map of the virus’ spread around the world, including in Russia and the rest of post-Soviet Eurasia. For a comparison of the number and rate of change in new cases in the U.S. and Russia, visit this Russia Matters resource.
• While the vaccine is free and widely available, only 3.5 percent of Russians have received at least one shot, compared with 32.1 percent in the U.K., according to Our World in Data. In the U.S., it's about 18 percent. Recent surveys show that less than a third of Russians are willing to get the Sputnik V vaccine. (Wall Street Journal, 03.09.21)
• Russians’ life expectancy plummeted in 2020 as the coronavirus pandemic disrupted Putin’s goal to increase lifespans, according to state figures cited by the RBC news website March 11. Annual life expectancy dropped for the first time in 17 years from a record of 73.3 years in 2019 to 71.1 years last year, according to the cited preliminary figures. Russia's state statistics agency recently announced 323,000 excess deaths in 2020, the highest in a decade and a half. (The Moscow Times, 03.12.11)
• The mutating H5N8 strain of avian flu has a high risk of human-to-human transmission, Russian authorities warned March 12. Anna Popova, who heads Russia’s health watchdog Rospotrebnadzor, made the prediction nearly a month after scientists detected the first case of H5N8 transmission to humans at a southern Russia poultry farm. (RFE/RL, 03.12.21)
• According to preliminary estimates from the CBR, Russia's current account surplus in 2m21 amounted to $13.1 billion (it was $6.8 billion in January), down from $17.7 billion in 2m20. The year-on-year decrease was primarily due to the trade surplus shrinking to $17.6 billion from $23.6 billion, which in turn owed mainly to lower oil prices. (bne IntelliNews, 03.11.21)
• Russian consumer inflation peaked at 5.7 percent in February, driven by rising food prices, and is now well over the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) 4.25 percent preferred rate, but it is expected to fall in the coming months. (bne IntelliNews, 03.09.21)
• Official data shows food prices rose 7.7 percent over the last year—the fastest rate in five years—while Russians’ disposable incomes climbed by less than 1.5 percent in cash terms. After adjusting for inflation, Russians’ disposable incomes have fallen by more than a tenth since 2013. (The Moscow Times, 03.12.21)
• When asked by the Levada Center to identify the country's main problems from a list, 58 percent of Russian respondents selected rising prices. That marks a decrease from 2018, when rising prices were named as a concern by three-quarters of Russians. Forty percent selected poverty as one of the country's main problems, followed by 39 percent who pointed to corruption and graft. (The Moscow Times, 03.09.21)
• Support for Russia's pro-Kremlin ruling party has dropped to an eight-year low ahead of legislative elections where it seeks to retain a supermajority this fall, independent poll results said March 11. United Russia, which enjoys a two-thirds majority in the country’s lower house of parliament, would receive 27 percent of the vote if it was held this Sunday, according to the Levada Center polling agency. (AFP, 03.11.21)
• The FSB’s internal estimates are that more than 90,000 people took to the streets in 143 Russian cities on Jan. 23 and Jan. 31 to demand Aleksey Navalny’s release, according to Meduza. Around 12,000 of them were detained, it added. Official Interior Ministry figures placed the number of protesters nationwide at fewer than 10,000 on both dates combined. (The Moscow Times, 03.09.21)
  • Lawyers for Navalny say he has been moved from a detention center in the Vladimir region, northeast of the Russian capital, to an undisclosed location amid a call from Western countries for his immediate release. (RFE/RL, 03.12.21)
  • Dozens of countries took Russia to task at the U.N. on March 12 over its imprisonment of Navalny and slammed numerous "arbitrary arrests" of his supporters. (AFP, 03.12.21)
• About half of Russian men believe that women are better off not working while only 22 percent of women feel the same, according to an Otkritie Bank poll published by TASS. (The Moscow Times, 03.08.21)
• Rosatom has announced that implementation of Putin's decision to increase the share of nuclear power in the country's energy mix to 25 percent by 2045 will require, according to preliminary estimates, the construction of 24 new reactor units, including in new regions. (World Nuclear News, 03.10.21)
• Russian metallurgical giant Norilsk Nickel has fully paid off more than 146 billion rubles ($1.97 billion) in damages for a spill that dumped thousands of tons of diesel fuel into the Russian Arctic last year. (RFE/RL, 03.10.21)
  • Russia's Federal Penitentiary System may use convicts to help clean a contaminated zone of the Arctic following a massive diesel spill. (RFE/RL, 03.12.21)

Defense and aerospace:

• Representatives of the armed forces of Russia, India, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, China, Kyrgyzstan and Pakistan have held the first round of consultations and discussed the timeframe of the Peace Mission-2021 exercise, its scenario, the structure of the command’s headquarters and the united command of the coalition force grouping. The Peace Mission-2021 anti-terror command and staff drills will run at a proving ground of Russia’s Central Military District this summer. (TASS, 03.09.21)
• Russia's arms sales last year were not affected by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, a senior official said March 12, making it one of the country's only industries to come out unscathed. "Our order book remained at a level of $50-55 billion," said Dmitry Shugayev, who heads the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation. (AFP, 03.12.21)
• The Russian army has taken delivery of 8 locally upgraded T-90M Proryv (main battle tanks, according to reports in local media. (Defense Blog, 03.11.21)
• Russia plans to display state-of-the-art Armata T-14 tanks at its World War II victory parade on Red Square on May 9. (The Moscow Times, 03.11.21)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• Russia said March 11 it had killed a suspected militant planning a terror attack in the North Caucasus republic of Dagestan. The National Anti-Terrorism Committee in a statement announced that an operation to "prevent the preparation of a terrorist attack" was carried out March 11. (AFP, 03.11.21)
• Putin has appointed Sergei Korolyov first deputy director of the FSB, Peskov said. He has replaced Sergei Smirnov who has served in that position for 17 years before retiring last October. Previously, Korolyov was serving as the head of the FSB Economic Security Service. (Interfax,  03.04.21, Russia Matters, 03.07.21)
• Prominent liberal lawmaker Lev Shlosberg, has called on Russian authorities to properly investigate the two sudden near-fatal illnesses suffered by opposition activist Vladimir Kara-Murza while traveling in Russia. (RFE/RL, 03.09.21)
• Russian parliament's lower chamber, the State Duma, has approved the first reading of a bill allowing for "accidental" corruption. According to the bill, officials, judges, prosecutors, military personnel and other individuals cannot be held responsible for corrupt actions in cases when they could not control the circumstances in which such actions took place. (RFE/RL, 03.11.21)
• Putin signed legislation March 10 allowing phone companies to jam communication in prisons in order to prevent scams. (The Moscow Times, 03.10.21)
• The Prosecutor General's office said March 12 that it had charged Kakhi Gazzayev, Murtazi Shadanii and Dzhambula Dzhanashii in the murder of Vyachesla Ivankov in 2009, saying they had carried out the killing at the behest of a rival mobster to Ivankov. (AFP, 03.12.21)
• A probe has been launched posthumously against a Moscow resident who was killed by his three daughters in 2018. Mikhail Khachaturyan was posthumously charged with the sexual abuse and torture of his three daughters, who are currently facing a trial for the murder of their father, the women's lawyers said March 10. (RFE/RL, 03.11.21)
• Five Chechen men went on trial in Austria for outing and harassing female compatriots for exhibiting “Western behavior,” Austrian media reported March 11. The defendants were accused of running an online chat where they threatened, intimidated and occasionally abused Chechen women for allegedly not adhering to strict Islamic rules, according to the Die Presse daily. (The Moscow Times, 03.12.21)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• “While a fundamental change in Russia’s foreign policy appears unrealistic in the short term, managing our challenging relationship with Russia must remain a key foreign policy priority of the European Union,” according to a document drawn up by Berlin ahead of EU leaders’ talks on Russia this month. It notes that Russia has an “indispensable,” if “often difficult,” role in various global policy fields, meaning the EU has a “vital interest” in stable and predictable relations. Scope exists for possible engagement with Moscow on conflicts in the Middle East and north Africa, global environmental and health problems, and economic themes such as digitalization, hydrogen power and the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union alliance, the document states. The German proposal is an unsigned and undated “non-paper.” (Financial Times, 03.07.21)
• Russia is demanding a public apology from the EU’s medicines regulator for comparing its Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine to “Russian roulette.” Christa Wirthumer-Hoche, management board chairwoman of the European Medicines Agency, made the errant remark March 8 while advising EU members against emergency use authorization of Sputnik V. (The Moscow Times, 03.09.21)
• Russia has secured an agreement to produce  Sputnik V coronavirus in Italy, marking the first such deal for producing the vaccine in Europe. (The Moscow Times, 03.09.21, Financial Times, 03.10.21)
• Slovakia’s health minister has announced his resignation after coming under pressure from the country’s four-party ruling coalition for ordering Russia’s Sputnik V. Slovakia became the second EU country after Hungary to purchase Sputnik V for national use, bypassing EU authorization of the vaccine. (The Moscow Times, 03.12.21)
• Russia’s foreign trade surplus amounted to $9.7 billion in January 2021, down by 34.9 percent (or $5.2 billion) year-on-year, the Federal Customs Service reported March 11. Russia’s exports dropped by 14.9 percent in the reporting period year-on-year to $26.6 billion, while imports rose by 3 percent to $16.8 billion. Total Russian foreign trade turnover went down by 8.7 percent in the period to $43.4 billion.  (TASS, 03.11.21)
  • The share of the European Union in Russia’s foreign trade structure in terms of countries amounted to 34.2 percent of Russia’s trade turnover in January 2021 (37.1 percent in January 2020). CIS countries: 12.3 percent (11.2 percent), EAEU states: 9.2 percent (7.9 percent) and APEC states: 35.7 percent (34.4 percent). Russia’s main trade partners among non-CIS countries in January 2021 were China, with trade turnover worth $8.5 billion (down 10.1 percent year-on-year), Germany with $2.9  billion (down 17.5 percent) and South Korea with $2.2 billion (up 47.7). (TASS, 03.11.21)
  • Fuel and energy goods formed the core of Russia’s exports in January 2021 as their share in the export structure amounted to 55.7 percent compared with 66.4 percent in January 2020. (TASS, 03.11.21)
• Russia exported a record amount of food supplies in 2020, becoming a net seller of agricultural products for the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The country sold $30.7 billion worth of agricultural goods abroad last year, news site RBC reported March 9,. In volume terms, Russian producers shipped 79 million tons of grain, meat, fish, vegetables, dairy and other products around the world. Both figures were a record for the post-Soviet era. (The Moscow Times, 03.09.21)
• The Russian and Turkish presidents have witnessed the launch of construction of a new reactor at Turkey's first nuclear power plant. Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan watched live over video link as concrete was laid at the third unit of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant in southern Turkey. Akkuyu Nuclear, a subsidiary of Russia's Rosatom, has received two loans of up to $200 million and $100 million, respectively, for a period of seven years from Sovcombank to finance the construction of the nuclear power plant. (RFE/RL, 03.10.21, World Nuclear News, 03.09.21)
• A Turkish court has sentenced five people to life in prison over the assassination of the Russian ambassador to Ankara more than four years ago. (RFE/RL, 03.09.21)

China-Russia: Allied or Aligned?

• China, Russia, North Korea, Iran and others are seeking support for a coalition to defend the U.N. Charter by pushing back against the use or threat of force and unilateral sanctions, according to a letter seen by Reuters March 11. The move by 16 countries and the Palestinians to create such a group comes as Biden’s new administration boosts its multilateral engagement. (Reuters, 03.12.21)
• Russia and China unveiled plans March 9 for a joint lunar space station, as Moscow seeks to recapture the glory of its space pioneering days of Soviet times, and Beijing gears up its own extraterrestrial ambitions. The Russian space agency Roscomos said in a statement that it had signed an agreement with China's National Space Administration to develop a "complex of experimental research facilities created on the surface and/or in the orbit of the Moon." (The Moscow Times, 03.09.21)
• In 2020 Chinese-Russian bilateral trade reached $107.7 billion, a decline of 2.9 percent compared to 2019, Chinese Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui said. (Interfax, 03.09.12)
• As Russia and China grow closer through economic ties, a joint Chicago Council on Global Affairs-Levada Analytical Center survey finds that the Russian public sees little downside to the growing bilateral relationship. Three out of four Russians express a favorable view of China (74 percent), according to the survey. Nearly six in ten Russians (57 percent) believe that in 10 years, Russia and China will grow closer.. More than half say Russia’s ties to China strengthen Russia’s position in the world (55 percent). (Chicago Council, 03.10.21)
• Blinken and Jake Sullivan, Biden's national security adviser, will meet next week with China's foreign minister, Wang Yi, and its top diplomat, Yang Jiechi in Anchorage on March 18, the Biden administration's first in-person diplomatic encounter with its chief foreign rival.  (New York Times, 03.11.21)

Ukraine:

• A Ukrainian soldier has been killed in clashes with Russian-backed separatists in Ukraine's war-torn east, its military said March 11, raising fears over a fresh outbreak of heavy fighting. Also, a serviceman of the Ukrainian armed forces was wounded as a result of shelling in Donbass, the Ukrainian delegation to the Trilateral Contact Group has said. (The Moscow Times, 03.11.21, Interfax, 03.05.21)
• The Kremlin has urged France and Germany to use their influence with the Ukrainian government to make sure that events in the part of eastern Ukraine controlled by Russian-backed rebels did not “cross a dangerous line.” “A red line would be the resumption of full-scale hostilities,” said Peskov. (Reuters, 03.04.21)
• President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and Biden during their first telephone conversation exchanged views on the situation in Ukraine. (Interfax, 03.05.21)
• Two Ukrainians who were part of an international organized cybercrime network were extradited to the U.S. March 7 on charges of money laundering. (Interfax, 03.08.21)
• Some 48.4 percent of Ukrainians prefer speaking Ukrainian at home, according to a survey conducted by the Social Monitoring Center from Feb. 19 to Feb. 28. At the same time, 23.9 percent of respondents speak two languages: Ukrainian and Russian. In turn, 27.3 percent of respondents tend to speak only Russian at home. (Interfax, 03.05.21)
• Ukraine is so plagued by misinformation about COVID-19 that vaccine hesitancy in Ukraine is among the worst in Europe, even among doctors and nurses. That shows in the slow start for Ukraine’s vaccination program: So far, just over 23,000 people have received a dose, out of a population of 42 million. (New York Times, 03.11.21)
• Ukraine’s real GDP dropped 2.6-2.8 percent year on year in January, according to estimates published March 10 by the Ministry of Economic Development. (bne IntelliNews, 03.11.21)
• Ukraine’s grain harvest is expected to rise by 15 percent to 75 million tons this year, returning to the bumper crop levels of 2019, Deputy Economy Minister Taras Vysotskyi wrote on Facebook. (Ukraine Business News, 03.08.21)
• Ukraine plans to nationalize Motor Sich, an aerospace manufacturer that is majority-owned by Chinese companies, due to its strategic importance to national defense. The nationalization of the jet engine manufacturer is likely to irk China but please the United States. (RFE/RL, 03.12.21)
  • Beijing demands Kyiv protect the legitimate interests of Chinese investors in connection with the decision to nationalize Motor Sich, more than 50 percent of which is owned by Chinese companies, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian has said. (Interfax, 03.12.21)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Armenia's top brass has again called for Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's resignation as opposition supporters blocked the parliament building shortly after he announced that a top general had been relieved of his duties. The army General Staff on March 10 reiterated that early elections are the only way out of the ongoing political crisis and repeated a demand that Pashinyan step down after Armenian President Armen Sarkisyan refused to endorse his dismissal of the chief of the General Staff, Onik Gasparian. Sarkisyan has refused to accept Pashinyan's proposal to appoint Artak Davtian as the new chief of staff for the armed forces as the country's ongoing political standoff continues. (RFE/RL, 03.11.21, RFE/RL, 03.10.21)
• Armenia has announced it will hold military drills next week that will coincide with similar maneuvers by rival and neighbor Azerbaijan. "According to the plan of the first half of 2021, the armed forces of Armenia will hold tactical and professional maneuvers on all operative directions with the involvement of combined armed groups and special troops," the Armenian Defense Ministry said March 12. (RFE/RL, 03.12.21)
• Opposition parties have called for Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Gharibashvili to step down amid fresh allegations he is beholden to the ruling party's billionaire founder. TV Pirveli, an opposition station, on March 7 published an alleged audio recording of Bera Ivanishvili, the son of Georgian Dream founder Bidzina Ivanishvili, demanding Gharibashvili punish his critics on social media. (RFE/RL, 03.07.21)
• Russia’s intelligence service has claimed that the U.S. is dissatisfied with the ruling party in Georgia for not carrying out Washington’s orders and that Washington is preparing to crack down and force Tbilisi into a more obedient position.  (Eurasianet, 03.10.21)
• Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko has replaced the country's Investigative Committee chief and several other senior officials amid a continued crackdown on protesters demanding his resignation over an election last year they say was rigged. (RFE/RL, 03.11.21)
• Belarusian authorities have opened a criminal investigation against the Vyasna human rights center and detained several of its members in the latest crackdown on dissent against Lukashenko. (RFE/RL, 03.06.21)
• The International Olympic Committee has refused to recognize Viktar Lukashenko, the eldest son of Alexander Lukashenko, as the new chairman of the National Olympic Committee of Belarus. (RFE/RL, 03.09.21)
• Belarus expelled two more Polish diplomats on March 11 after Poland expelled a Belarusian diplomat in a tit-for-tat spat that erupted after a World War II commemoration. (RFE/RL, 03.11.21, RFE/RL, 03.10.21)
• Belarusian video blogger Syarhey Tsikhanouski, who has been in pretrial detention since May, has been served with final charges that could see him imprisoned for up to 15 years in prison after he expressed his willingness to take part in an August presidential election against Lukashenko. (RFE/RL, 03.11.21)
• The loading of “dummy” fuel assemblies began yesterday at unit two of the new nuclear power plant in Ostrovets, Belarus. "This process is a prerequisite and, in a way, a dress rehearsal for the loading of nuclear fuel into the reactor," Russian state nuclear corporation Rosatom said. (World Nuclear News, 03.08.21)
• Villagers in southern Tajikistan along the border with war-torn Afghanistan have been told they should be prepared "to take up arms" if militants try to enter the region. Local authorities in the Tajik district of Shamsiddin Shohin have held meetings with residents—including army reservists and hunters—to discuss the situation, Gov. Pochokhon Zarifzoda says. (RFE/RL, 03.10.21)

 

IV. Quoteworthy

• No significant developments.