This Week’s Highlights

• U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone on May 7. The White House reported that Trump “reaffirmed that the United States is committed to effective arms control that includes not only Russia, but also China,” Reuters reports. The Kremlin statement didn't mention arms control but said the two leaders discussed "the need to ensure strategic stability, combat terrorism and resolve regional conflicts." The two presidents also reportedly discussed efforts to further stabilize oil prices, RFE/RL reports. Trump then said Putin also accepted his offer to provide ventilators, according to The Moscow Times.
• The Admiral Chersky, a Russian ship capable of laying pipe is approaching Danish waters, raising speculation it may seek to complete the $11 billion natural-gas Nord Stream II pipeline whose construction was halted by U.S. sanctions last year, RFE/RL reports.
• The U.S. has accused Russia of worsening the situation in war-torn Libya and funneling Syrian mercenaries to support Haftar in his battle to capture Tripoli. The comments from top State Department officials on May 7 came a day after a U.N. report confirmed between 800 and 1,200 military contractors from Russia’s Wagner Group are actively fighting alongside Haftar’s self-styled Libyan National Army, RFE/RL reports.
• Russian soldiers are operating drones over Venezuela as part of a search operation for members of a paramilitary force that led a botched invasion this week, local media reported on Friday, according to Reuters. The failure of the plot to overthrow Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro ran aground has served as a reminder of the intelligence-gathering capabilities of Maduro’s backers, Cuba and Russia, analysts said. Ever since it began to unfold, the Venezuelans have been one step ahead of their adversaries.
• The failure of the plot to overthrow Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro has, among other things, served as a reminder of the intelligence-gathering capabilities of Maduro’s backers, Cuba and Russia, analysts said. Ever since it began to unfold, the Venezuelans have been one step ahead of their adversaries, not only on home turf but across the border in Colombia, Financial Times reports.
• Putin, whose approval rating has sunken to its lowest level since 1999, is backing calls to begin easing a national lockdown, the Financial Times reports, just as Russia has come to account for the world's second-fastest rate of new COVID-19 infections. As a result of the pandemic and other factors, real incomes in Russia are already 7.5 percent lower than in 2014 and will fall by 5 percent this year, according to the Financial Times, and the crisis could see unemployment double to 10 percent. Meanwhile, Russia’s finance minister has warned that the government could burn through almost half its savings by the end of the year, the Financial Times reports. Dollar-denominated Russia Trading System index is down 26.4 percent year to date as of April 30, and Russia’s services IHS Markit Russia Services Purchasing Index fell to 12.2 in April, down substantially from 37.1 in March, bne IntelliNews reports.
• The head of Russia’s state nuclear corporation has expressed concerns about the spread of the novel coronavirus to three of its so-called “nuclear cities,” including one that houses a top-secret research institute that helped develop the Soviet nuclear bomb, Bellona reports.

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• The head of Russia’s state nuclear corporation has expressed concerns about the spread of the novel coronavirus to three of its so-called “nuclear cities,” including one that houses a top-secret research institute that helped develop the Soviet nuclear bomb. “The situation in Sarov, Elektrostal, Desnogorsk is today particularly alarming,” Rosatom chief Alexei Likhachev said. (Bellona, 05.06.20)  

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin has given North Korean leader Kim Jong Un a commemorative World War II medal for his role in preserving the memory of Soviet soldiers killed in North Korea. (The Moscow Times, 05.05.20)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• U.S. President Donald Trump has vetoed a congressional resolution to prevent military action against Iran without first receiving permission from Congress amid rising tensions in the Middle East. (RFE/RL, 05.07.20)

New Cold War/saber rattling:

• The Russian navy is tracking the first U.S. Navy warships to have entered the Barents Sea near Norway in more than 30 years, the Defense Ministry said May 4. “U.S. Navy surface ships have not operated in the Barents since the mid-1980s,” the U.S. 6th Fleet said in a statement. (The Moscow Times, 05.04.20)
• Russian radars tracked 24 foreign aircraft, 19 spy aircraft and five unmanned aerial vehicles, that conducted reconnaissance near Russia’s borders over the past week, the newspaper Krasnaya Zvezda reported May 8, citing the Defense Ministry’s data. (TASS, 05.08.20)

NATO-Russia relations:

• No significant developments.

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

• See “U.S.-Russian relations in general” section below for discussion of arms control by Putin and Trump.

Counter-terrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• The Russian navy has begun a scheduled rotation of the warships in the Mediterranean. The group will be reinforced by the Moskva cruiser, Defense Ministry sources said. Two new submarines with Kalibr cruise missiles have joined the group. The Russian navy's taskforce permanently deployed in the Mediterranean also includes other new ships, such as the Dmitry Rogachyov patrol ship and the Ivan Antonov minesweeper. (Naval News, 05.08.20, TASS, 05.08.20)
• The Russian and Turkish military conducted their patrolling mission on May 7 in Syria’s Idlib de-escalation zone along an expanded route, reaching the town of Ariha in northwestern Syria for the first time. (TASS, 05.07.20)
• According to the Russian media outlet Репортёр (Reporter), Russian-made tanks took part in fighting with Syrian rebels, described as "terrorists," in the providence of Latakia, where "allegedly three T-14s were hit from TOW-2B anti-tank system, and one Armata was completely destroyed." (The National Interest, 05.05.20)

Cyber security:

• Germany has issued an arrest warrant for a suspected Russian military intelligence officer alleged to have hacked servers in the German parliament, the country’s Süddeutsche Zeitung newspaper reported May 5. The suspect, Dmitry Badin, is also wanted in the U.S. on charges of trying to interfere in the country’s 2016 presidential election.  (The Moscow Times, 05.05.20)

Elections interference:

• Trump’s nominee for director of national intelligence at his Senate confirmation hearing said he believed Russia interfered in the 2016 presidential election and was prepared to meddle again. Rep. John Ratcliffe, a Texas Republican, has earlier questioned former special counsel Robert Mueller’s findings last summer about the Russia investigation. (RFE/RL, 05.06.20)
• The Supreme Court on May 8 granted a Trump administration request to temporarily shield redacted grand jury materials related to former special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia probe from the Democratic-led House. The order, signed by Chief Justice John Roberts, halts the disclosure of secret grand jury transcripts and exhibits that Democratic lawmakers had initially requested as part of the House impeachment inquiry into Trump. (The Hill, 05.08.20)
• Former U.S. President Barack Obama’s office called Senate Republicans’ investigation into former Vice President Joe Biden’s son’s activities in Ukraine an effort “to give credence to a Russian disinformation campaign” in a letter Obama’s office sent to the National Archives. (New York Times, 05.06.20)

Energy exports from CIS:

• The Admiral Chersky, a Russian ship capable of laying pipe, is approaching Danish waters, raising speculation it may seek to complete the $11 billion Nord Stream II gas pipeline whose construction was halted by U.S. sanctions last year. (RFE/RL, 05.02.20)
• Gazprom produced 35 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas in April 2020, compared to 44.24 bcm in April 2019. This is also lower than in April 2018 (43.48 bcm) and April 2017 (35.62 bcm) but higher than in April 2016 (31.06 bcm). Gazprom pumped 4.431 bcm of gas via Ukraine in April compared to 4.634 bcm in March. (Interfax, 05.02.20)
• For most of the post-Soviet period, energy officials in Russia have resisted OPEC entreaties to participate in production cuts to help prop up oil prices, arguing that doing so was impossible because of the country’s cold climate. This week Russian energy executives unveiled plans to reduce production by a fifth by shutting down wells, many of them in the Arctic. (New York Times, 05.04.20)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Trump and Putin spoke by phone on May 7. The White House reported that Trump “reaffirmed that the United States is committed to effective arms control that includes not only Russia, but also China.” The Kremlin statement didn't mention arms control but said the two leaders discussed "the need to ensure strategic stability, combat terrorism and resolve regional conflicts." The two presidents also reportedly discussed efforts to further stabilize oil prices. The White House statement said Trump informed Putin that “the United States is … ready to provide assistance to any country in need, including Russia.” Trump then said Putin accepted his offer to provide ventilators as Russia continued to see record-setting daily coronavirus cases. The presidents also discussed the upcoming 75th anniversary of the Allied defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II. (RFE/RL, 05.07.20, Wall Street Journal, 05.07.20, The Moscow Times, 05.08.20, Reuters, 05.07.20)
• Trump on May 8 responded to the Justice Department’s decision to drop criminal charges against his former national security adviser, Michael Flynn. Trump praised Attorney General William Barr for the dramatic action announced May 7, which nullified a major case prosecuted by special counsel Robert Mueller. The extraordinary move comes amid a sustained attack by Flynn’s lawyers on prosecutors and the FBI, accusing them of egregious conduct. In a possible sign of disagreement with the Justice Department decision, Brandon Van Grack, an assistant U.S. attorney who led the prosecution of Flynn, abruptly withdrew from the case on May 7. (New York Times, 05.07.20, New York Times, 05.08.20)
• Russia will not be an early partner in the United States’ international agreement on moon mining rights it seeks to negotiate with other countries in the coming weeks. The Trump administration’s so-called Artemis Accords agreement reportedly seeks to establish “safety zones” around future moon bases to prevent damage or interference from rivals. (Reuters/The Moscow Times, 05.06.20)
• A Russian court has extended the house arrest of U.S. investor Michael Calvey and his business partner, French national Philippe Delpal, until Aug. 13. Calvey and several other executives and employees of the Russia-based private-equity group Baring Vostok were detained in Moscow in February last year and charged with financial fraud. They all deny any wrongdoing. (RFE/RL, 05.07.20)
• The New York Times has won a Pulitzer Prize in the international reporting category for what the judges called a series of “enthralling stories, reported at great risk,” about Putin’s government. Among the stories in the series was a story by Michael Schwirtz who uncovered the existence of a secret team of Russian military assassins throughout Europe called United 29155 that was responsible for the poisoning of a former Russian spy in Britain in 2018. The Russian Embassy in Washington criticized the prize board's decision, writing on its Facebook page on May 5 that the articles were "Russophobic fabrications" damaging the newspaper’s reputation. (RFE/RL, 05.05.20, New York Times, 05.05.20)
• In its latest report, U.S.-based democracy monitor Freedom House  notes that in Russia, which is classified as an authoritarian regime, Putin's constitutional reforms, which if implemented, would allow him to retain his post beyond two terms, "demonstrate a contempt for the rule of law and the basic principles of constitutional government." (RFE/RL, 05.06.20)
• Facebook has removed hundreds of social-media accounts—more than half of them based in Russia, Iran and Georgia—after finding they belonged to networks that were running influence campaigns. All the networks were created before the coronavirus pandemic, but the company said it found people behind the campaigns had "opportunistically" used coronavirus-related posts to build an audience and drive people to their content. (RFE/RL, 05.05.20)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia confirmed 10,699 new coronavirus infections May 8, bringing the country’s official number of cases to 187,859. Russia now has the world's second-fastest rate of new infections behind the U.S. Ninety-eight people died over the past 24 hours, bringing the total death toll to 1,723. (The Moscow Times, 05.08.20) Here’s a link to RFE/RL’s interactive map of the virus’ spread around the world, including in Russia and the rest of post-Soviet Eurasia. For a comparison of the number and rate of change in new cases in the U.S. and Russia, visit this Russia Matters resource.
• Putin has backed calls to begin easing a national lockdown despite a steady growth in COVID-19 cases. In a televised meeting with ministers and regional governors, Putin endorsed a proposal for industrial companies and construction projects in Moscow to restart work on May 12, while warning against a return to normality beyond the Russian capital. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said May 7 that lockdown measures in the Russian capital would be extended until May 31 after the country reported a record increase in coronavirus infections. On May 8, Russia’s consumer protection watchdog said Russia’s coronavirus lockdown could stay in place until at least the end of 2020 when a vaccine is developed or until the pandemic ends. (AFP, 05.07.20, Financial Times, 05.06.20, The Moscow Times, 05.08.20)
• The Levada Center’s April poll shows that 59 percent of respondents approved of Putin’s work, which is the lowest approval rating recorded by Levada since September 1999, when Putin had a 53 percent approval rating shortly after being appointed prime minister. (The Moscow Times, 05.06.20)
• Yevgeny Mikrin, designer general of the Energia aerospace and defense corporation, died weeks after attending the April 9 launch of a three-man crew aboard a Russian capsule to the International Space Station. Mikrin’s coronavirus infection was asymptomatic. (The Moscow Times, 05.07.20)
• A doctor at an ambulance unit in Russia's western Voronezh region is in serious condition after falling from a hospital window following complaints that he was forced to work even after testing positive for COVID-19, the third such case in the country in recent days. (RFE/RL, 05.04.20)
• Real incomes in Russia will fall by 5 percent this year, Alfa-Bank economists have forecast. Incomes are already 7.5 percent lower than in 2014, before Russia’s invasion of Crimea prompted Western sanctions against Moscow. Alexei Kudrin, head of Russia’s audit committee and a former finance minister, estimates that the crisis could see unemployment double to 10 percent. Sixty percent of Russians have no savings. (Financial Times, 05.04.20, The Washington Post, 05.03.20)
• Russia’s services IHS Markit Russia Services Purchasing Index fell to a stunning 12.2 in April, down substantially from 37.1 in March, and signaled the steepest contraction in business activity since data collection for the series began in 2001. (bne IntelliNews, 05.07.20)
• The Russian dollar-denominated Russia Trading System (RTS) index is down 26.4 percent year to date as of April 30 and the MOEX Russia ruble denominated index is down 13 percent. But that represents an improvement from RTS’ losses of just under 50 percent in the week ending March 20. (bne IntelliNews, 04.05.20)
• Since oil prices plunged, partly due to Putin’s ill-fated decision to embark on a price war with Saudi Arabia to hurt U.S. shale producers, a $165 billion war chest built up to protect the economy is being drained by as much as $300 million a day, according to government data. Russia’s finance minister has warned that the government could burn through almost half its savings by the end of the year. (Financial Times, 05.04.20)
• The overall coronavirus-related relief package in Russia has amounted to less than a quarter of what is being injected in Germany, and most of the support has been aimed at helping large corporations, many of them owned or closely entwined with the state. Only around $10 billion has been pledged to small businesses so far. “Their top priority, bluntly, is to save money and spend as little as possible without creating significant social and political instability,” said Vladimir Tikhomirov, a Russian economist, said of the Kremlin. (New York Times, 05.03.20)

Defense and aerospace:

• The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the Russian armed forces totals 1,475 people from March to May 5. (TASS, 05.05.20)
• Putin has signed a decree banning members of the armed forces from carrying smartphones, tablets and other gadgets capable of recording and storing information while on duty. In recent years, photos and video footage inadvertently posted online via the smartphones of members of the Russian military revealed information about the location and movements of its troops and equipment. (RFE/RL, 05.07.20)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• "According to the provided data, there were 6,054 [domestic violence] complaints, while in April the number of such complaints passed over 13,000," Russian Ombudswoman Tatyana Moskalkova said. (RFE/RL, 05.05.20)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• The U.S. has accused Russia of worsening the situation in war-torn Libya and funneling Syrian mercenaries to support Khalifa Haftar in his battle to capture the capital, Tripoli. The comments from top State Department officials on May 7 came a day after a U.N. report confirmed between 800 and 1,200 military contractors from Russia’s Wagner Group are actively fighting alongside Haftar’s self-styled Libyan National Army that controls eastern Libya. (RFE/RL, 05.08.20)
• Russian soldiers are operating drones over Venezuela as part of a search operation for members of a paramilitary force that led a botched invasion this week, local media reported on May 8, citing deleted tweets from a state military command center. The failure of the plot to overthrow Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro ran aground has served as a reminder of the intelligence-gathering capabilities of Maduro’s backers, Cuba and Russia, analysts said. Ever since it began to unfold, the Venezuelans have been one step ahead of their adversaries. (Financial Times, 05.08.20, Reuters, 05.08.20)
• Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has thanked Putin for Russia’s assistance in combatting the coronavirus infection in his country. Italy’s defense minister has expressed readiness to help Russia in a phone call with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu thanking the Russian military for its assistance in fighting the outbreak in northern Italy. Russia’s military medical staff is due to start leaving Italy on May 8. (The Moscow Times, 05.08.20, TASS, 05.08.20)

China-Russia: Allied or Aligned?

• Chinese leader Xi Jinping congratulated Russia with the 75th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany. "Being the main victor powers in World War II and permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation shoulder the task of safeguarding global peace and our countries are assigned a special mission of contributing to the development and progress of humankind," Xi said. (TASS, 05.08.20)
• The U.S. is wrong to accuse China of being responsible for the coronavirus outbreak without providing proof, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, in the latest sign of a pivot away from Washington and towards Beijing. Peskov said that Russia couldn’t “show any solidarity” with China-bashing statements from the U.S., and stressed the importance of Moscow’s relationship with Beijing. (CNBC, 05.08.20)

• “As the number of cases imported from Russia grows, so is Chinese anger. Not only is Moscow hiding—or unable to detect—real numbers of infections, it can’t control movement of sick people and the spread of Covid-19,” Alexander Gabuyev of Carnegie Moscow Center says. “This is likely to boost long-held feelings of Chinese superiority towards Russia and anti-Russian sentiments. In Russia, it’s likely that the virus will reinforce deep-seated Sinophobia.” (Financial Times, 05.04.20)

Ukraine:

• Ukraine’s economy is to contract by 11 percent in the second quarter of 2020, according to the National Bank of Ukraine. (bne IntelliNews, 05.04.20)
• Due to the quarantine, the number of unemployed Ukrainians has roughly doubled in March, to 2.5-2.8 million people, according to calculations by the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry. “The unemployment rate today is 13.7-15.4 percent—this is the highest rate in the last 15 years,” said chamber president Gennadiy Chizhikov in recent remarks. (bne IntelliNews, 05.03.20)
• The trust rating of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy stands at 59 percent, according to a survey by the Razumkov Center from April 24 to April 29. (Interfax, 05.04.20)
• The IMF cancelled its agreement with Ukraine for the extended $5.5 billion Extended Fund Facility and says negotiations must restart for a downgraded Standby agreement due to “political instability.” (bne IntelliNews, 05.08.20)
• Mikheil Saakashvili, the former president of Georgia, has been installed in a top position coordinating reforms in Ukraine. Zelenskiy on May 7 appointed Saakashvili head of the executive committee of Ukraine’s National Reform Council after an earlier plan to make him deputy premier ran into political opposition. Saakashvili said an $8 billion loan program offered by the IMF with nearly $4 billion disbursed this year “is not enough.” Georgia summoned its ambassador to Ukraine back to Tbilisi in a sign of its displeasure over Kyiv’s decision to name Saakashvili to a government reform body. (Financial Times, 05.07.20,RFE/RL, 05.08.20)
• Former Ukrainian Prosecutor-General Ruslan Ryaboshapka, who was forced out in a parliamentary vote of no confidence two months ago, is now under investigation. Ukraine's Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office said it had opened "criminal proceedings" against Ryaboshapka for what the Criminal Code describes as "declaring ... false information" and "accepting an offer, promise or obtaining an illicit benefit from an official." (RFE/RL, 05.06.20)
• The Ukrainian Security Service said that a resident of Ukraine's eastern region of Luhansk was detained on May 6 while trying to pass "secret technical documentation" regarding the Ukrainian system to Russia's Federal Security Service. (RFE/RL, 05.06.20)
• New court hearings in the MH17 trial will resume on June 8 with a limited number of people to attend the courtroom due to the restrictions introduced in connection with the COVID-19. (Interfax, 05.04.20)
• Trump intends to nominate a retired Army lieutenant general to become the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, filling a critical position that has been vacant for nearly a year. Keith Dayton, who currently serves as the senior U.S. defense adviser to Ukraine and as director of the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies in Germany, will need to be approved by the U.S. Senate. (RFE/RL, 05.02.20)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Belarus will hold its presidential election between Aug. 9 and Aug. 30, the chairwoman of the country’s Central Election Commission said. Despite the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has called on leaders of other countries to attend the military parade in Minsk marking the 75th anniversary of Nazi Germany's defeat in World War II. (RFE/RL, 05.05.20, RFE/RL, 05.07.20)
• The former deputy chief of the Kazakh presidential administration, Maulen Ashimbaev, has replaced as parliament speaker Dariga Nazarbaeva, the daughter of former President Nursultan Nazarbaev, in a sign of a possible power struggle at the top of the country's leadership. (RFE/RL, 05.04.20)
• Moldova’s Constitutional Court has ruled that a 200 million euro ($216 million) loan agreement with Russia is unconstitutional. (RFE/RL, 05.07.20)
• Armenia gained its highest score in the latest report by U.S.-based democracy monitor Freedom House based on improvements related to elections and corruption. Ukraine’s national democratic governance score saw a slight improvement, and Uzbekistan’s corruption score improved from rock bottom based on recent efforts to root out petty graft. (RFE/RL, 05.06.20)

IV. Quoteworthy

• Author of “The Liberation Trilogy” Rick Atkinson: “The surrender [of Nazi Germany] officially took effect the next day, May 8, allowing time to notify Nazi garrisons in Norway and U-boat submarine crews across the Atlantic. Joseph Stalin, the Soviet leader whose people had done far more killing and dying than any other Allied nation, would insist on highlighting Germany's complete ruination by holding a second surrender ceremony on German soil in a Berlin suburb on May 9. With an estimated 26 million Soviets dead in the war, that seemed reasonable enough.” (Wall Street Journal, 05.01.20)